Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NICE LITTLE IMPULSE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN FAR NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW INTERACTION TO
HELP DRIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE...GRAHAM AND
EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES. STILL CLEARING THE DEBRIS CLOUD WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING AND
SATELLITE ESTIMATES WITH 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK NOW BELOW 500MB WITH A WEAKENING TREND EATING
INTO THE H3 TO H5 LAYER AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE VERY EASY MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT AREA WIDE TODAY...BUT STORM STRUCTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN A FULL LIFE CYCLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT
IS A REMNANT CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION IN NORTHWEST COCHISE AND
SOUTHWEST GRAHAM COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST IN A DIMINISHING FLOW. THAT
COULD BE LOCALIZED FOCUS OF CONVECTION NOT BEING PICKED BY HI RES
MODELS.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND FOR TODAY OF COVERAGE
DOMINATED BY MOUNTAIN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT
OUTFLOW WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN
AREAS. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST HRRR AND UOFA WRF-NAM TRENDS PROVIDING
A CERTAIN LEVEL OF COMFORT WITH THIS FORECAST AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG H7 THETA-E RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SONORA ARGUES FOR A POSSIBLE COMPLEX JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY E OF A KCGZ-
KOLS LINE THIS AM WILL CONT TO MV TO THE W-NW. LCL MVFR CONDS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND NR HIER TERRAIN.
CONDS IMPRVG LATER THIS AM BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTN
AND EVENG. BRIEF WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVENG OF 30-45 KTS AND MVFR
CONDS PSBL NR THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS OFF TO A
FIRECRACKER START WITH NOCTURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THRU THE PHOENIX METRO...ERN PINAL...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN TO
THE W-NW AROUND 10-15 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY RAINERS
WITH 0.50"-1.25" BEING RECORDED IN SPOTS. THE HEAVIEST HAS OCCURRED
IN GRAHAM COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS WHERE A
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. INTERACTIONS
FROM SE AZ OUTFLOWS AND FROM THE NE SONORA MCS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SW NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA LIKELY
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THIS
MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT W-NW. DUE TO THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY...ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED EVENING STORMS
WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
MONSOON PATTERN.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING OUT THE WESTERN AREAS
BUT HOLDING ON TO ENOUGH MOISTURE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS
FOR CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
308 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS OFF TO A
FIRECRACKER START WITH NOCTURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THRU THE PHOENIX METRO...ERN PINAL...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN TO
THE W-NW AROUND 10-15 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY RAINERS
WITH 0.50"-1.25" BEING RECORDED IN SPOTS. THE HEAVIEST HAS OCCURRED
IN GRAHAM COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS WHERE A
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. INTERACTIONS
FROM SE AZ OUTFLOWS AND FROM THE NE SONORA MCS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SW NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA
LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS
THIS MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT W-NW. DUE TO THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY...ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED EVENING STORMS
WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
MONSOON PATTERN.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING OUT THE WESTERN AREAS
BUT HOLDING ON TO ENOUGH MOISTURE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS
FOR CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY E OF A KCGZ-
KOLS LINE THIS AM WILL CONT TO MV TO THE W-NW. LCL MVFR CONDS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND NR HIER TERRAIN.
CONDS IMPRVG LATER THIS AM BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTN
AND EVENG. BRIEF WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVENG OF 30-45 KTS AND MVFR
CONDS PSBL NR THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BY NEXT WEEK...DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT HAVE EXPANDED WEST AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER PARTS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SOUTH TO COOLIDGE AND
CASA GRANDE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WERE UNEXPECTED
AND THE MECHANISM FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT WAS HARD TO DISCERN...
ALTHOUGH ITS RELATED TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 40-50 KNOT 300-250 MB
SOUTHEASTERLY JETSTREAM EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF AZ. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 07Z SHWR DEVELOPMENT...
AND FORECASTS IT TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AND CASA
GRANDE AREAS...OR THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 16Z FRI.
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24. I.E...A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ZONE 24.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
FAR NORTHEAST AZ FRIDAY MORNING...TO THE VICINITY OF EL PASO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN VEERS THE BELT OF UNUSUALLY STRONG 300/250 MB
40-50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...TO SOUTHERLY WINDS CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES...AS WELL
AS PERIODS OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS PORTENDS A THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
SAT AND SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YDA...AND NOW
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THRU
FRIDAY. ONLY ONE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.
MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE A ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.
SATURDAY...
MODELS FORECAST AN INVERTED TROF IN THE EASTERLIES TO ROTATE OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CREDIENCE IS PUT INTO THE EXTENDED MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THE MONSOON...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
LOW GRADE MONSOON THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER
PINAL...EASTERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... AFTER SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN
AFFECT ONE...OR MORE OF THE TERMINALS...A RATHER QUIET REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PUSHED BACK
WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE CURRENT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE WESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
NOT BEING QUIET OD STRONG AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BOTH SE CA SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS MAINLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND
A RE-ORIENTING OF HIGHEST STORMS CHANCES WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN
THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH FAIR/GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY TRENDS
NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
117 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BY NEXT WEEK...DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT HAVE EXPANDED WEST AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER PARTS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SOUTH TO COOLIDGE AND
CASA GRANDE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WERE UNEXPECTED
AND THE MECHANISM FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT WAS HARD TO DISCERN...
ALTHOUGH ITS RELATED TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 40-50 KNOT 300-250 MB
SOUTHEASTERLY JETSTREAM EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF AZ. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 07Z SHWR DEVELOPMENT...
AND FORECASTS IT TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AND CASA
GRANDE AREAS...OR THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 16Z FRI.
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24. I.E...A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ZONE 24.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
FAR NORTHEAST AZ FRIDAY MORNING...TO THE VICINITY OF EL PASO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN VEERS THE BELT OF UNUSUALLY STRONG 300/250 MB
40-50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...TO SOUTHERLY WINDS CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES...AS WELL
AS PERIODS OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS PORTENDS A THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
SAT AND SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YDA...AND NOW
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THRU
FRIDAY. ONLY ONE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.
MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE A ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.
SATURDAY...
MODELS FORECAST AN INVERTED TROF IN THE EASTERLIES TO ROTATE OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CREDEECE IS PUT INTO THE EXTENDED MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THE MONSOON...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
LOW GRADE MONSOON THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER
PINAL...EASTERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT
SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KPHX/KIWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THERE ALSO
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. THEREAFTER...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BOTH SE CA SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND
A RE-ORIENTING OF HIGHEST STORMS CHANCES WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN
THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH FAIR/GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY TRENDS
NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
921 PM MST THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATED AN
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH ITS CENTER OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA. STORMS THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE EAST OF TUCSON...AND APPEAR TO
HAVE FIRED GENERALLY ALONG THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/BOUNDARY
ALOFT. MODELS ALL SHOW A SLIGHT SHIFTING THE HIGH AXIS WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING AN AREA OF
HIGHER OMEGA AT 300 MB TO THE NE OF TUCSON...GENERALLY E PINAL AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR WEAK
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
STORMS ARE STILL ACTIVE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND
EASTERN COCHISE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR INDICATED THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BUT BECOME MORE GENERALIZED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST PIMA AND EASTERN PINAL INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS FITS THE CURRENT TRENDS AND LARGER SCALE
PICTURE...SO MODIFIED INHERITED POPS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING MORE
STABLE WITH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS REORIENTS FROM A
POSITION NORTH OF OUR AREA TO ONE THAT IS MORE TYPICALLY AMPLIFIED
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS THE BRISK EASTERLY FLOW IS TURNING
INTO AN INCREASING AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FRIDAY WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE NEW FLOW REGIME SETS
UP...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE WILL BE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS...NOT THE STRONG
MESOCYCLONES OF TUESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE BUSY SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS FROM
THE SOUTH IMPACTING METRO TUCSON IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE LONG SOUTHERLY ENHANCED FETCH WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH MARKEDLY INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
AT THAT POINT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKNESS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS TO OUR EAST. THE PROBLEM IS OUR MEAN FLOW MAY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY WITH THIS...PUSHING THE BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF STORM ACTIVITY...DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A
MINOR DIFFERENCE IN POSITION OF LARGER SCALE FEATURES MAKING A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTION FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BEST
GUESS IS THAT AFTER MONDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS COVERAGE
WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS REMAIN BUSIER.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTIES WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE GENERALIZED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TUCSON IN EASTERN PINAL AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. SLOW CLEARING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 30-45
KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AT 14Z...THE RUC SHOWED A 60+KT JET MAX OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. THE GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN BY 00Z WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN DENVER...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. I THINK THE NAM IS TOO HIGH AND THE GFS
AND RUC ARE TOO LOW. THEREFORE...I WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. THE GFS...NAM AND ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO SHIFT INTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
AROUND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT
COUNTIES...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WITH PW`S AROUND AN INCH...WE COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE GOOD MOVEMENT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER...THEREFORE THE
FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS TO BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM PARK COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO SUNDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE STORM ACTIVITY.
COOLER AND STILL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY LOW LEVELS WILL BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER THE
COOLER AIR AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER. MAIN THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH STILL SOME CHANCE ON THE PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. STORMS COULD BE SLOWER MOVING ON THIS DAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ALOFT AND UPSLOPE...INTERFACE BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL AIR AND
THE WARMER MOUNTAIN AIR...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE...WOULD
BE THE LIKELY TROUBLE SPOT BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO COOL TO CREATE STRONG STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR
SITUATION BUT LESS OF ALL OF THAT AS THE AIRMASS STARTS TO WARM
AND DRY A BIT AND THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FLOW ALOFT.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN. SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DRY WSW
FLOW. THERE COULD BE A SWEET SPOT WHERE IT IS WARM ENOUGH BUT
STILL MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN ACTIVE DAY...MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME THREAT OF STORMS AFTER THAT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT THE WARMTH ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAP IT...WILL GO FOR A
PRETTY LOW KEY CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS FROM 23Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z ON THE 4TH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1056 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AT 14Z...THE RUC SHOWED A 60+KT JET MAX OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. THE GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN BY 00Z WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN DENVER...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. I THINK THE NAM IS TOO HIGH AND THE GFS
AND RUC ARE TOO LOW. THEREFORE...I WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. THE GFS...NAM AND ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO SHIFT INTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
AROUND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT
COUNTIES...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WITH PW`S AROUND AN INCH...WE COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALLL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE GOOD MOVEMENT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX DRIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN JET MAX LOCATION. IF THAT OCCURS THEN STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY TAP INTO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND INTENSIFY.
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WHEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FIRES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED QUITE A FEW SCENARIOS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE IN PLAY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG SPEED MAX TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND MORNING CONVECTION...SO OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TODAY
FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER AND EVEN A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY FAST TO REDUCE THREAT OF HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET AND BURN SCAR FLOODING AS
STRONGER STORMS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE INCH IN 30
MINUTES.
FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW STORMS GOING
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW MEX INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MDLS SHOW
SOME QPF SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. BY THAT TIME...
THE RDG WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90...WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ON SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
DAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CLIP NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
FRONT RANGE. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH
THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER COOL DAY
AS WELL BUT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL START TO REBUILD OVER UT AND WESTERN CO BY
MIDWEEK...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN CO. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL THERE FOR A TROUGH TO BRUSH THE CWA FM THE NORTH SO WL
KEEP SLGT CHC AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS AND LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS REMAINS LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH 23Z. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS
AFTER 23Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KALINA
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KALINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.
RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY, ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT APPEAR THAT A REPEAT OF
LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS IN ORDER AS THERE ARE NO BOUNDARIES
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT COULD HAPPEN SO
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LOOKS TO
BE A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA BUT
STILL IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THUS, EVEN THOUGH
THE ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY FREE OF ANY ACTIVITY THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLARE UP AROUND 04-06Z AND THEN
MOVE ONSHORE. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR GIVEN THE ABOVE FLOW SO
KEPT OUT MENTION OF TSRA BUT DID LEAVE IN PLACE THE VCSH FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY SO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR BUT MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD AID DEVELOPMENT
CLOSER TO KAPF AND KPBI.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
.SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON THE WAY...
* HAZY SKIES OVERSPREAD SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY
* LESS TSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT PULSE STRONG-SEVERE POSSIBLE
* FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSING OVER INTERIOR
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON (OCCURRING NOW) WITH DISSIPATION BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN THE 10 PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. WON`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...SO PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTION ON WHETHER IT WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY FOR FOURTH FIREWORKS DISPLAYS THIS EVENING OR IF
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTORMS TO DEAL WITH.
AN IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) IS APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. NASSAU SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
LAYER AT AROUND 7KFT. THIS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FL SUN-TUE...RESULTING IN
VERY HAZY SKIES AS SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES FROM THE SAHARAN
DESERT LIE OVERHEAD. SO ADDED IN HAZE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY. FIREWORKS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE HAZINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
PWATS FALL IN THE SAL DOWN TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CONVECTION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAL ARE SUCH THAT
STRONG OR EVEN PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7C/KM) OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED BUT INTENSE TSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOON`S...FAVORING THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST.
BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TUTT-LIKE LOW PUSHING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
FEATURE IS NOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY...AS SHOWN BY
THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE ONLY
A MINOR IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...ONLY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES BY.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONLY THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 79 91 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 81 91 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 80 91 80 91 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 76 92 76 92 / 20 40 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
804 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER NE FL WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MEETING AN AREA
OF WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE CITY AND GAINESVILLE AREAS.
EXPECT RAIN TO END BY 9 PM IN MOST AREAS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
ALABAMA PROGGED BY HRRR MODEL TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER SW GA
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA DECREASING THIS EVENING...SHOULD LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUN
AFTERNOON...COULD BE NUMEROUS AROUND TAF SITES LATE IN THE
DAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.MARINE...SHOWERS WEAKENING OVER THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT. SW WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 92 71 90 / 40 60 30 40
SSI 77 87 76 87 / 40 50 40 40
JAX 73 91 72 90 / 30 60 50 50
SGJ 75 88 75 88 / 30 50 40 50
GNV 71 92 72 91 / 30 60 20 60
OCF 72 92 72 90 / 30 60 20 70
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/WOLF/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.
FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.
EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 91 / 20 40 30 60
FMY 76 94 76 93 / 30 60 30 40
GIF 76 94 76 93 / 20 60 50 60
SRQ 77 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 50
BKV 74 94 73 92 / 20 40 30 60
SPG 80 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.
FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.
EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 94 78 92 78 / 30 20 40 30
FMY 95 76 94 76 / 60 30 60 30
GIF 96 76 95 75 / 40 20 60 50
SRQ 94 77 92 77 / 30 20 40 20
BKV 95 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 30
SPG 94 80 92 80 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HEATING TO OCCUR.
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO THE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. W/SW FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL DELAY THE SEA BREEZE
NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT SHOULD FORM EARLY THIS AFTN AND DRIFT
INLAND.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INITIATE JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST
BY EARLY AFTN AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES WEST. GFS MOS GUIDANCE CAME
IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE. DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE
PROFILE...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCSTR THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW.
OUR LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MESO MODELS BOTH SHOW BEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCD WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVE FOCUSED ON THE
NORTH INTERIOR. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT
USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION... E TO SE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS
16Z-18Z AND PUSH INLAND TO SFB/MCO 19Z-21Z. ISOLD TSRA SHOULD FORM
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT MORE THAN VC TERM AT ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT A
COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR 23Z-01Z WHICH MAY REQUIRE A
TEMPO GROUP.
&&
.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST 10-14KT WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2FT...UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 72 90 72 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 94 73 93 74 / 30 30 60 30
MLB 94 73 90 74 / 20 20 30 30
VRB 92 72 89 73 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 93 75 93 76 / 30 30 60 30
SFB 95 73 92 73 / 30 30 50 30
ORL 94 74 92 75 / 30 30 60 30
FPR 91 73 90 72 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1009 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
...LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY...
.UPDATE...THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING DOES SHOW A PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MID LEVEL CAP WITH 5H TEMPS AROUND -8.5C. THE BEST
FORCING TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GA. THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH PW AROUND 1.65". WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS (15 TO 20 PERCENT)...WITH BOTH THE ARW
AND HRRR SHOWING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SRN TIER ZONES WHERE
WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE WSW TO W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS A TAD HIGHER
SUGGEST HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH AFTN E COAST SEA BREEZE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS. ONLY VCTS PLACED IN FOR GNV TAF WHERE CHANCES ARE
NEAR 20 PERCENT. W TO SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KT BY 14Z.
LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT SGJ...CRG AND SSI. WEST WINDS
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 4 TO 7 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...AXIS OF BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PREVAILING SW TO W FLOW DAY BUT SHIFT
TO SE/S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MAY
PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS TONIGHT BUT TOO SHORT-LIVED AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MEETING
CRITERIA. MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SURROUND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH TO THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. ISOLD THREAT TODAY...THEN SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTORM WIND
GUSTS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS/NEARSHORE WIND WAVES ROUGHLY AT 1.5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS SUGGEST SURF OF 2 FT OR LESS. THUS LOW
RISK LOOKS REASONABLE. LITTLE CHANGE FCST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 72 93 70 / 20 20 20 20
SSI 91 76 91 76 / 20 20 40 20
JAX 94 73 92 72 / 20 20 40 20
SGJ 91 75 92 74 / 20 20 40 20
GNV 93 72 93 72 / 20 20 40 30
OCF 94 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PETERSON/CORDERO/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE NE GOMEX WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
MIDWEST/MID SOUTH WITH AN ADJACENT FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING UP ERN
SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD. WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR AOB
10KTS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTION THAT WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS NONE OF THE THE 00Z
PENINSULA RAOBS SHOWED ANY MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70
LYR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE
DVLPS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A THIN VORT BAND POSITIONED JUST N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THAT MAY PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT A
H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS IS NOT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS A LITTLE SKETCHY AS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
ACRS THE PENINSULA ARE AOB 60PCT WITH AVG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND
7C. THE H85-H50 LYR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER WITH RH VALUES BTWN 60-
70PCT...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
DIURNAL CU FIELD ONCE IT DVLPS.
THE 03/00Z MOS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILE...THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW. THE 3KM
WRF AND HRRR MODELS BOTH HINT AT SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. WILL GO WITH A 30-20PCT NW TO SE BREAKDOWN
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PENINSULA.
PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S. OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S.
SAT-MON...POSITIVELY TILTED RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL SLIDE EWD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND LAGGING OVER THE SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SWRLY STEERING LYR FLOW TENDING TO PUSH ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF
REGIME CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS REFLECT THIS...AVERAGING 50-60 PCT WHICH IS ABOUT
10-20 PCT ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
TUE-THU..GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPARITY IN HOW MUCH MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS AND FL FROM
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARD THIS END
WHILE THE ECM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
ERN CONUS AND ERODING THE WRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A TUTT-TYPE LOW REACHING THE BAHAMAS ON WED AND
EITHER MOVING INTO SE FL (ECM) OR ACROSS THE BREADTH OF SOUTH FL
(GFS) ON THU. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT FORWARD/W-NW FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
FCST GRIDS SHOW CLIMO POPS TUE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WED-THU
HOWEVER POPS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON ONE OR BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT LOW. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SFC WINDS: THRU 03/13Z...S/SW 2-4KTS. BTWN 03/13Z-
03/16Z...S OF KVRB-KOBE BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS...N OF KVRB-KOBE S/SW 3-
6KTS. BTWN 03/16Z-03/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG
THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 03/18Z-03/20Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S/SE 6-9KTS
CONTG THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 04/00Z-04/06Z...BCMG S/SE 2-4KTS ALL SITES.
THRU 04/12Z WX/VSBYS/CIGS...BTWN 03/16Z-04/03Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE SCT
IFR TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD TSRAS. BTWN 03/21Z-03/24Z SLGT CHC
+TSRAS VCNTY OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR W OF KSFB.
&&
.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT.
SAT-TUE...BOTH THE NWPS AND WNWAVE FLAVORS OF WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE BACK TO SUMMER-LONG BIAS OF GENERATING PEAK SEAS
AVERAGING ABOUT A FT HIGHER THAN REALITY. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS
INVOF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP PEAK WINDS
NEAR 15KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE...2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
NEAR SHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 72 90 72 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 94 73 93 74 / 30 30 60 30
MLB 94 73 90 74 / 20 20 30 30
VRB 92 72 89 73 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 93 75 93 76 / 30 30 60 30
SFB 95 73 92 73 / 30 30 50 30
ORL 94 74 92 75 / 30 30 60 30
FPR 91 73 90 72 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
405 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
...LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY...
.NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS FAIRLY
ABSENT TODAY AS SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAP MODEL DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAINLY OVER OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTIVE.
THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH PRIMARILY ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-
20 PERCENT) MOST AREAS WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING A BETTER
CHANCE OVER OUR SRN ZONES WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES. WSW TO W FLOW...LESS CLOUDINESS...AND 850 MB TEMPS A TAD
HIGHER SUGGEST HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S WITH AFTN E COAST SEA BREEZE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AT THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NE FL ZONES E OF HIGHWAY
301. MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAY PRODUCE VERY ISOLD WEAK CONVECTION
OVER OUR ERN ZONES IN THE PREVAILING SWLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY SAT TO THE APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
BENEATH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF INDEPENDENCE
DAY...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS NUDGES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL FL
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND DUE TO PREVAILING S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. OUR
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZES IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OUTFLOWS PUSHING NORTHWARD AND
IGNITING SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST
GA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST
FL AS A SEA BREEZE COLLISION TAKES PLACE. PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
CLIMB TO 100-105 RANGE.
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SAT...WITH RE-
IGNITION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS INTO OUR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 70-75.
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUN...CREATING
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES PUSH INLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY. NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN BETWEEN THE I-75 AND I-95 CORRIDORS IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH HIGH END SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WITH UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING
THROUGH OUR REGION SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN PLACE NORTH OF WAYCROSS ALL NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM 70-75.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE REGION-WIDE EARLY NEXT AS
SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE APPALACHIANS ONLY
GRADUALLY FILLS BY MIDWEEK. DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW PREVAILS MON AND
TUES AS ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER FL PENINSULA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AN EARLIER START TO THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 85-90 RANGE. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL LIKELY SPARK
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 ON TUES...WITH HIGH-END SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING WED AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES ON WED AND
THURS AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND DUE TO AN EXPECTED LATER START TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH UPPER 80S PREVAILING AT THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. OUR REGION MAY
BE IN A SUBSIDENT REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF A TUTT CROSSING SOUTH
FL ON FRI...POSSIBLY PROMOTING A FURTHER DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND. LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE MUGGY 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS. ONLY VCTS PLACED IN FOR GNV TAF WHERE CHANCES ARE
NEAR 20 PERCENT. W TO SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KT BY 14Z.
LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT SGJ...CRG AND SSI.
&&
.MARINE...AXIS OF BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PREVAILING SW TO W FLOW DAY BUT SHIFT
TO SE/S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MAY
PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS TONIGHT BUT TOO SHORT-LIVED AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MEETING
CRITERIA. MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SURROUND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH TO THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. ISOLD THREAT TODAY...THEN SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTORM WIND
GUSTS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS/NEARSHORE WIND WAVES ROUGHLY AT 1.5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS SUGGEST SURF OF 2 FT OR LESS. THUS LOW
RISK LOOKS REASONABLE. LITTLE CHANGE FCST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 20
SSI 91 76 90 75 / 20 20 40 20
JAX 94 73 94 74 / 20 20 40 20
SGJ 91 75 90 74 / 20 20 40 20
GNV 93 71 94 73 / 20 20 40 30
OCF 93 73 93 74 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIALLY LOW END VFR CIGS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIP.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE ALONG WITH
SOME REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA LOOKS TO
BE NEAR KCSG INITIALLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING
NEAR THE REST OF THE SITES. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WITH
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AFTER 19Z. CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOWER POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PRECIP AREA. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW TO
WEST 3-7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND LOW END GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON EARLY MORNING CIGS/VSBYS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 84 69 86 / 50 60 40 50
ATLANTA 71 81 69 84 / 60 60 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 64 76 63 79 / 70 70 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 69 80 68 84 / 70 70 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 85 71 87 / 70 60 40 50
GAINESVILLE 69 80 68 83 / 60 60 50 50
MACON 70 88 70 88 / 50 60 40 50
ROME 69 81 68 85 / 70 70 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 70 82 69 85 / 70 60 40 50
VIDALIA 72 92 72 89 / 40 60 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...ALTHOUGH AN EVENING LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LIKELY...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIALLY LOW END VFR CIGS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIP.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE ALONG WITH
SOME REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA LOOKS TO
BE NEAR KCSG INITIALLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING
NEAR THE REST OF THE SITES. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WITH
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AFTER 19Z. CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOWER POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PRECIP AREA. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW TO
WEST 3-7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND LOW END GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON EARLY MORNING CIGS/VSBYS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 84 69 86 / 50 60 40 50
ATLANTA 71 81 69 84 / 60 60 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 64 76 63 79 / 70 70 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 69 80 68 84 / 70 70 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 85 71 87 / 80 60 40 50
GAINESVILLE 69 80 68 83 / 60 60 50 50
MACON 70 88 70 88 / 50 60 40 50
ROME 69 81 68 85 / 70 70 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 70 82 69 85 / 70 60 40 50
VIDALIA 72 92 72 89 / 40 60 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.
SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.
RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA EASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
INDICATES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE STORMS MOVING THROUGH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS TRENDS BECOME
FURTHER ESTABLISHED. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.
SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 11-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
KSAV...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL DUE
TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH
CLOUDS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINAL IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.
RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS CONTINUING TO BRING A RATHER QUIET WEATHER SCENE TO
CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM
AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ANY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A RESULT...NO EVENING UPDATE WILL BE
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK
DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME HAZY
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITH FAIR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
APPEAR IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH HRRR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS WEEK. LATEST NAM MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT AND
HAS IT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE
THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING
JUST EAST OF I-55 BY THAT TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER.
HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE POP`S MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH THE MAIN SHOW COMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE.
SUCH VALUES LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
ON STALLING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THIS INDEED STALLS OVER OUR AREA...BUT IN
THE MEANTIME WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW (5% ON LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK) AS
THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHWARD SURGE IN
THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE SHOWING A
FAIR RANGE IN THESE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONVERGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GFS WITH IT MORE OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE EXACTLY TO FOCUS THE
HIGHER POP`S LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO AROUND 40%
UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. THE HIGH WILLSHIFT
EAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALLOWING LIGHT SE/S WINDS TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN TO 5-9 KTS BY LATE MORNING. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED CIRRUS
TONIGHT AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DUE TO THE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY AFTER 06-08Z AND THROUGH
AROUND 15Z. SOME VSBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KDEC AND KSPI...FROM 08-12Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK
DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME HAZY
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITH FAIR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
APPEAR IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH HRRR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS WEEK. LATEST NAM MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT AND
HAS IT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE
THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING
JUST EAST OF I-55 BY THAT TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER.
HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE POP`S MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH THE MAIN SHOW COMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE.
SUCH VALUES LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
ON STALLING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THIS INDEED STALLS OVER OUR AREA...BUT IN
THE MEANTIME WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW (5% ON LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK) AS
THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHWARD SURGE IN
THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE SHOWING A
FAIR RANGE IN THESE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONVERGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GFS WITH IT MORE OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE EXACTLY TO FOCUS THE
HIGHER POP`S LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO AROUND 40%
UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. THE HIGH WILLSHIFT
EAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALLOWING LIGHT SE/S WINDS TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN TO 5-9 KTS BY LATE MORNING. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED CIRRUS
TONIGHT AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SUNDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DUE TO THE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY AFTER 06-08Z AND THROUGH
AROUND 15Z. SOME VSBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KDEC AND KSPI...FROM 08-12Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MIDLEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
SATURDAYS HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY,
WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL
OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS WHILE INTERACTING WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.
ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
229 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WITH THE INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS...HAVE RAISED THE OVERNIGHT POP
TO HIGH CHANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES TO DISCUSS AT THE END OF THE EVENING
SHIFT. FIRST...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WAS UPDATED AND
ISSUED AT 1040 PM. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO IT...JUST
WANTED TO ISSUE AN UPDATED PRODUCT SO THE MID SHIFT WILL NOT HAVE
TO MESS WITH IT UNTIL LATER IN THEIR SHIFT. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND OTHER UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS. LEFT IN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA IN CASE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRES OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE POPS
ARE A LOT LOWER THAN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THAT WERE
IN THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING...THERE JUST WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH A LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
DIMINISHED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
FORECAST STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL
LEAVE THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE LATER IN THE SHIFT TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING AND TO UPDATE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY MORNING DUE LARGELY TO CEILINGS. THE LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...RENEWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR AND LAST INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA BY 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL 03Z FOR AEX. WILL THEN HAVE VCSH THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM I10
CORRIDOR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE VCSH FOR AREA AIRPORTS AND LET LATER SHIFTS PINPOINT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.
WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
.85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.
MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.
RUA
MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 75 90 75 / 20 20 50 30
LCH 91 77 90 78 / 20 10 40 20
LFT 92 77 89 76 / 20 10 50 20
BPT 92 76 90 78 / 20 10 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 74 89 74 / 40 40 60 40
MLU 90 74 88 73 / 40 60 60 40
DEQ 84 70 86 71 / 60 60 60 40
TXK 86 72 87 72 / 60 60 60 40
ELD 85 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 40
TYR 89 74 89 74 / 40 30 40 30
GGG 90 74 90 74 / 40 30 50 40
LFK 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 74 89 74 / 30 40 60 40
MLU 90 74 88 73 / 30 60 60 40
DEQ 84 70 86 71 / 60 60 60 40
TXK 86 72 87 72 / 60 60 60 40
ELD 85 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 40
TYR 89 74 89 74 / 30 30 40 30
GGG 90 74 90 74 / 30 30 50 40
LFK 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 74 89 74 / 30 40 60 40
MLU 90 74 88 73 / 30 60 60 40
DEQ 84 70 86 71 / 60 60 60 40
TXK 86 72 87 72 / 60 60 60 40
ELD 85 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 40
TYR 89 74 89 74 / 30 30 40 30
GGG 90 74 90 74 / 30 30 50 40
LFK 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
747 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES WITH THIS UPDATE. SHOWERS/TSRA
ARE OCCURRING ACRS NRN VERMONT AND HEADED INTO MAINE. THEY WL BE
RUNNING INTO STABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP DATA NOT
BRINGING ANY QPF INTO NW ZONES OVRNGT. WL AWAIT 00Z RAOB DATA BFR
REMOVING POPS FOR THE OVRNGT.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL
BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR
WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...
CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.
WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND
ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG
ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE
FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY.
MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE
DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS.
HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR
TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE...
THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A SHOWER
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -TSRA AND ALSO MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3
TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN
DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20
KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW
WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA FRI EVENING...WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM EVEN IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE KINEMATICS WILL BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORM WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OF ONLY 25-30KT AT 500MB. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR INSOLATION DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
WEAK N-NE FLOW...HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EVENING FOR
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY...AND IT MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
TEMPS IN THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +17C. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
MINIMAL SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA BEING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE FROPA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE MONDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...THERE WILL BE
LIKELY AMPLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY ANOTHER
COOL DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND +6C
WITH N-NE WINDS. MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO LAST TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH RISES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WITH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF NOW GOING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING PRETTY
BLEAK...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. TERMINALS
MOST LIKE TO SEE A SHRA/TSRA ARE RNH/EAU...THOUGH STC/MSP CAN NOT
RULE SOMETHING OUT. FOG MAY BE AN ISSUES AGAIN AT EAU SATURDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO INTRODUCED AN
MVFR VIS FOR THEM TO END THE TAF FOR NOW.
KMSP...IF MSP SEES A SHRA/TSRA IT WOULD BE BETWEEN 23Z AND
3Z...BUT THAT THREAT STILL LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH A CROSS WIND FOR THE 30S/12Z MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH
WITH SPEED GENERALLY 8 KTS OR LESS...IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
JUST WALKED IN THE DOOR AND DISCOVERED THAT ALTHOUGH FOG ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NO WORSE THAN THE LIGHT/NUISANCE
VARIETY...NDOR WEB CAMS OUT IN THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA ALONG WITH
AIRPORT OBS SUCH AS FROM LEXINGTON SUGGEST THAT A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 MILE
RANGE HAD DEVELOPED OUT IN THIS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH AT LEAST SMALL POCKETS OF DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY) EMBEDDED WITHIN. FORTUNATELY...THIS HEAVIER FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND THE 830-900 AM TIME FRAME AT MOST. GIVEN
THAT THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ANOTHER 60-90 MINUTES OR SO...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGID) FOR
THE DAWSON/GOSPER AREA AND ALSO BEEFED UP THE MORNING FORECAST TO
REFLECT "AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE" IN THESE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD AT KGRI...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS OF MIDDAY...AND
KGRI CONTINUES TO OBSERVE A CEILING NEAR 2500FT AGL AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS STRATUS IS DIMINISHING AND AT
THIS TIME IT IS BELIEVED THIS STRATUS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KGRI BY 19Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH BKN025 AT KGRI UNTIL 19Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. THE CEILING HAS ALREADY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS AT KEAR
AND AS A RESULT...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGHOUT THE TAF FOR
KEAR. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
JUST WALKED IN THE DOOR AND DISCOVERED THAT ALTHOUGH FOG ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NO WORSE THAN THE LIGHT/NUISANCE
VARIETY...NDOR WEB CAMS OUT IN THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA ALONG WITH
AIRPORT OBS SUCH AS FROM LEXINGTON SUGGEST THAT A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 MILE
RANGE HAD DEVELOPED OUT IN THIS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH AT LEAST SMALL POCKETS OF DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY) EMBEDDED WITHIN. FORTUNATELY...THIS HEAVIER FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND THE 830-900 AM TIME FRAME AT MOST. GIVEN
THAT THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ANOTHER 60-90 MINUTES OR SO...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGID) FOR
THE DAWSON/GOSPER AREA AND ALSO BEEFED UP THE MORNING FORECAST TO
REFLECT "AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE" IN THESE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY
DURING THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL
LINGER AT OR BELOW 1K AND BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM THROUGH MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN SITES...AND MAY
FLUCTUATE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THEREAFTER AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY
DURING THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL
LINGER AT OR BELOW 1K AND BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM THROUGH MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN SITES...AND MAY
FLUCTUATE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THEREAFTER AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
327 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
IFR TO LOW END MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SLOWLY MIGRATED WEST INTO KGRI
AND WILL MOVE INTO KEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS COULD BE A FOG
ISSUE. THIS COULD BE A TOUGH CALL...AS AREAS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS CLEAR AREAS WHICH RADIATE OUT. HAVE SEEN
THAT MANY TIMES. RIGHT NOW...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN KGRI/KEAR...HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY FOR FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AROUND SUNRISE. SOME SHOT FOR A SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN CHANCE OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT MAKES IT TOUGH
TO THINK EITHER LOCATION WILL BE ONE OF FEW SPOTS TO SEE THE
RAIN...AND THE TAFS ARE DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.
SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY TO MORE SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN OVER
S NM BY SATURDAY AFTN. AS A RESULT STORM CELLS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE S AND W TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING
DEPICTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING S OUT OF CO. TRUSTED MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT TS FORMING CLUSTERS AND LINES ACROSS N NM THIS AFTN
THEN SPREADING S ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
INDICATION THAT NW AND E CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO GET HIT. CELLS
SHOULD MOVE SLOWER AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ERRATIC TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IF THE HIGH SINKS FAR ENOUGH
S...STRATUS STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE E AT 10-15 KT.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
FEWER DENSITY ALTITUDE PROBLEMS. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 89 65 87 / 40 20 30 30
DULCE........................... 52 83 53 81 / 40 30 40 40
CUBA............................ 55 78 55 78 / 60 30 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 58 84 57 82 / 60 50 60 30
EL MORRO........................ 56 81 55 81 / 70 60 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 58 84 57 84 / 50 50 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 58 80 58 81 / 50 50 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 60 85 58 84 / 50 50 50 30
CHAMA........................... 49 75 51 74 / 50 40 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 79 61 80 / 60 40 60 50
PECOS........................... 56 78 57 79 / 60 40 50 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 75 53 75 / 40 40 40 60
RED RIVER....................... 47 65 48 66 / 60 50 50 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 68 52 69 / 60 50 50 60
TAOS............................ 53 80 54 81 / 40 30 40 40
MORA............................ 53 75 55 76 / 50 50 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 60 86 / 40 20 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 59 79 61 80 / 50 30 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 83 61 85 / 50 20 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 85 66 87 / 50 30 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 87 67 89 / 50 20 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 89 66 91 / 50 20 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 91 67 93 / 50 20 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 89 66 90 / 50 20 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 90 67 91 / 50 20 50 40
SOCORRO......................... 65 91 66 90 / 40 40 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 81 60 83 / 60 40 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 59 84 61 86 / 60 40 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 83 56 85 / 60 20 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 79 58 81 / 60 30 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 80 60 82 / 60 40 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 86 63 87 / 40 30 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 76 59 78 / 40 40 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 57 79 59 81 / 40 20 20 30
RATON........................... 57 83 57 84 / 30 10 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 58 84 58 85 / 30 10 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 78 56 79 / 50 40 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 87 64 90 / 40 5 20 20
ROY............................. 60 81 61 84 / 30 10 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 65 90 67 94 / 30 5 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 87 65 91 / 60 5 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 91 68 94 / 40 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 65 88 65 90 / 50 5 20 20
PORTALES........................ 66 89 66 91 / 40 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 88 66 91 / 60 5 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 68 91 67 94 / 50 5 20 20
PICACHO......................... 63 85 62 88 / 40 10 30 30
ELK............................. 60 78 60 80 / 50 20 30 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND WATERTOWN REGIONS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH PA...AND MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH
FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL SOUTH OF THAT LINE. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
SOME MODEL DETAILS...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH EXCESS INSTABILITY NOT BEING WELL HANDLED
BY CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION AND THUS BEING DUMPED IN THE FORM OF
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH A ~1 INCH DUMP
/NAM/ OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD DAYBREAK ALONG WHAT
WOULD NORMALLY BE A WEAK DEFORMATION REGION IN THE WINTER...BUT
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO KNOW WHAT TO DO...AND DUMP ALL THE
PRECIPITATION AT ONCE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MEMBERS OF VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES...THE NCAR AND SSEO...APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE...WITH MOST MEMBERS NOT SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXCEPT
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER. THEREFORE WILL FOCUS ON THAT REGION WITH A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SPRINKLES OR LESS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO NIL NORTH OF THAT REGION.
AS THE HRRR COMES INTO FOCUS...THIS TREND LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MOST
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH PA BUT WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO FAR.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/SATURDAY...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
WEAK LIFT ALONG A LAKE ERIE BREEZE TO SPARK A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME
WEAK CONVECTION TOWARD LEWIS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY MOST MODEL OUTPUT IN FAVOR OF A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...A LITTLE LESS
CONFIDENCE FURTHER INLAND AND EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED...MOSTLY AN INCONVENIENCE AND WELL UNDER AN HOUR IN
LENGTH...PASSING QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COOL FRONT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +12 TO +14C... EXPECT THAT FULL SUNSHINE AND MIXING UP TO
ABOUT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LIGHT MEAN FLOW UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DOMINATE OFF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO... BUT
SHOULD MAKE FOR AN EXCELLENT RECREATION DAY AS PART OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND
DOWNSLOPE / OFF SHORE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE
80S ON MONDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
DOWNSLOPE PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE GENESEE VALLEY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN WARM /LOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/... WITH SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT TO SLEEP WITH THE WINDOWS
OPEN.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EITHER
PUSH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... OR INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AN MCS TRACKING OUT OF
MICHIGAN / MIDWEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF WHICH
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LEAD TIME. STILL TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGING TO AROUND +17C AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS BELOW NORMAL... AS VARIOUS
FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING A SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING
INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ONE OF THE DAY OF THE
WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR FROM A WASHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF JHW LATE. ON SATURDAY...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON A LAKE ERIE BREEZE BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...FORMING AND THEN REMAINING S AND E OF A KROC-KJHW-KART
LINE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE CIRCULATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
837 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE
TO WRAP AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER
CIRCULATIONS. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN NEVADA...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHERN OREGON. ONCE
MORE...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND POINTS
NORTHWARD CONTINUES TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
DESCHUTES COUNTY AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE OVER WASHINGTON STATE WILL ELEVATE WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20
KTS FOR KYKM AND KPSC THRU 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AOB 10 KTS TONIGHT BECOMING 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. BIEDA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN...EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND NORTH CENTRAL
TO CENTRAL OREGON HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE TAPERED OFF TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BE PUMPED IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE
WARNING FOR THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE
FIRST MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES IMPROVING FURTHER NORTH AS THE WORK WEEK
PROGRESSES. WISTER/BIEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON
OUT THERE TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AN AREA
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR OREGON FORECAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
AND THICKER CLOUD COVER IS CONFINED TO THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS
AND CENTRAL OREGON...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING THE FLOW TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN OF
WASHINGTON...THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS
ON EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. THIS INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS MAY CAUSE
PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THESE AREAS STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 95-101 IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS EACH DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS MORE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. 77
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS STILL
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
OREGON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS. 93
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT 25K FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY OREGON
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WASHINGTON
AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND 10-20KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z AT KDLS AND KPDT
AND 10 KTS AND LESS AT OTHER TAFS SITES. 93
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 98 65 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 99 71 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 104 69 100 66 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 100 68 98 67 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 101 67 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 102 65 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 56 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 97 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 96 59 95 57 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 100 69 101 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ675.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
98/93/98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.
SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
840 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND RADAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BACK BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TONIGHT. ALREADY
NUMEROUS FLASHFLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BASED OFF REPORTS OF
RAINFALL IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE IN THE PAST 4 HOURS. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH FUTURE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE
LINE. EXPANSION OF THE FFA FARTHER NORTH WILL BE MONITORED TODAY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PWB
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 80 67 81 66 / 70 50 50 50
CLARKSVILLE 79 65 80 65 / 70 50 50 30
CROSSVILLE 76 63 75 63 / 70 70 60 50
COLUMBIA 80 66 79 65 / 70 60 60 50
LAWRENCEBURG 79 67 79 65 / 70 60 60 40
WAVERLY 79 66 79 66 / 70 50 50 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. CONVECTION MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES TOWARDS 06Z
MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE DALHART TAF SITE COULD
POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
15Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR
SO MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES BY 02Z OR 03Z MONDAY.
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL PREVAIL MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE
MODELS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTEAD...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN LINE AND KEPT ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND
BEGINS IMPACTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SENT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BACK TO THE WEST WHICH HAS SINCE SUPPORTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. AIDED BY WEAK ASCENT FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL
SMALL PERTERBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THIS CONVECTION
HAS EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF FANNIN...LAMAR AND
DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY
THE HRRR THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF NORTH TEXAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z...EAST OF A LINE
FROM K0F2 /BOWIE/ TO KGVT /GREENVILLE/ TO KF44 /ATHENS TO KTPL
/TEMPLE/. A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX AND WACO
TAF SITES. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WACO REGION BY 11Z AND
MAYBE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 13Z. THUS HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN
THE WACO TAF FOR THE 11-16Z PERIOD AND A TEMPO BKN025 IN THE
METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 13-16Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AFTER 17Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
EARLY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND SOUTH NEAR A LINE
FROM COPPERAS COVE TO CENTERVILLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GOOD
NEWS FOR THIS EVENING`S INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES IS THAT
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND RADAR DATA DO NOT INDICATE ANY SOURCE OF
ORGANIZED LIFT TO SUPPORT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITHOUT AN
OBVIOUS SOURCE OF LIFT...ASSUME BUOYANCY IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY
MEANS OF CONVECTION INITIATION...AND BUOYANCY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HEATING BUDGET TURNS
OVER TO COOLING VERSUS WARMING.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDED THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS TO
INCLUDE COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS DEVELOPING AT 230 PM CDT.
LEFT IN THE 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN CENTRAL TEXAS
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO THE GULF COAST. LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS OUTFLOW
FROM THE PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION NEAR ARKLATEX HAS
LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE LAMAR/RED RIVER COUNTY LINE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
CAUSING A REGENERATION OF STORMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NOW...AND
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD OVER LAMAR...DELTA...AND
HOPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LEFT 10 POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OTHER AREAS AS A "POP-UP" SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DRIVEN BY
THE HEATING OF THE DAY/BUOYANCY IS HARD TO RULE OUT JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 7 PM.
FOR THIS EVENING...THINK THAT ANY BUOYANCY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET...BEFORE 9 PM. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTERRUPT EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES
IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE TO
EMORY LINE. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD FROM RED RIVER
COUNTY...IT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST SUNSET. THINK
THAT WITH SUBSIDENCE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION IN
GENERAL...THAT A LOT OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ONLY CARRY 20
POPS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS EVENING...AND MOST INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO COMMENCE WITHOUT DELAY OR INTERRUPTION FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY...MANY OF THE CONVECTION PARAMETERIZING MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE QPF OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SIMPLY WENT AHEAD WITH 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA AS AN ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM WAS DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT IN ANY OF THE MODEL DATA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO APPEARS TO
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS ENERGY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. THINK
THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE.
IF THE ONGOING MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION SIMPLY CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IT MAY LEAVE A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY. IF A COHERENT BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN CWA TOMORROW...THE LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS OUR CWA WOULD REPRESENT THE
WARMER SIDE OF THIS WEAK FRONT. LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN PLACE ALONG A
LINE FROM BONHAM TO EMORY TO HEARNE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...IF NO BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE...MAY BE ABLE TO
LOWER THESE POPS TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA...SO LEFT 10 POPS IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THIS TROUGH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
LINED UP WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD ONLY ADD RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
HELP SEND THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE STORMS ARE
ALONG THIS FRONT...THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...IT
WILL PROBABLY STALL OUT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE CWA IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BASICALLY RELYING ON THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO DRAG IT
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A VALID
SOLUTION...STRONG CONSOLIDATED COLD POOLS OFTEN TIMES ACT JUST
LIKE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTS. THE MAIN REASON CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IS BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT ARE
ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION DO NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
CONVECTION...BUT RATHER PARAMETERIZE CONVECTION TO SAVE
COMPUTATION TIME.
CONVECTION IS COMPLEX...AND IF THE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE AS MANY
STORMS ALONG IT AS MODELS ARE INDICATING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY
STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IF THAT OCCURS...OUR RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL BRING THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THIS CONSENSUS UNLESS OBSERVATION
DATA...I.E. A SPARSE COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
UPSTREAM...INDICATES OTHERWISE. ASSUMING THE FRONT MAKES IT TO
NORTH TEXAS...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ASSUMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD AS ADVERTISED...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WHILE HEAT BUILDS
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 NEXT WEEKEND WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE MOST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
HIGHS START OUT IN THE MID 90S...CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 77 93 77 / 10 10 5 5 10
WACO, TX 75 92 75 93 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 73 89 74 90 75 / 60 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 75 92 75 93 76 / 10 10 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 91 75 91 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 77 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 75 90 75 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 92 75 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 91 74 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 74 92 74 93 75 / 10 10 5 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL PREVAIL MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE
MODELS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTEAD...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN LINE AND KEPT ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND
BEGINS IMPACTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
75
&&
.UPDATE...
AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.
THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.
BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.
BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 76 92 76 92 / 50 40 30 20 10
WACO, TX 93 74 92 74 92 / 20 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 86 72 87 73 88 / 100 60 50 30 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 74 91 / 50 40 30 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 91 74 91 75 90 / 60 60 30 20 20
DALLAS, TX 93 76 92 77 93 / 50 40 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 91 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 92 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 72 92 73 91 / 10 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 72 92 73 92 / 40 20 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.
THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY OR AFTER MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT
WILL TRY TO RESTRICT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WILL SHOW VCSH
IN TAFS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN A BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY
WHICH MAY INTERRUPT THE PREVAILING S/SW FLOW EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT
OCCUR ON STATION. WILL SHOW VARIABLE WINDS TEMPO GROUP.
FOR WACO...PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.
BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.
BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 76 92 76 92 / 50 40 30 20 10
WACO, TX 93 74 92 74 92 / 20 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 86 72 87 73 88 / 100 60 50 30 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 74 91 / 50 40 30 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 91 74 91 75 90 / 60 60 30 20 20
DALLAS, TX 93 76 92 77 93 / 50 40 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 91 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 92 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 72 92 73 91 / 10 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 72 92 73 92 / 40 20 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED NORTHWEST OF BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW...BUT WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY NOT AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO MOVE EAST FROM EAST NEW
MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT HOW FAR
EAST IS THE QUESTION. HOWEVER BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...-TSRA
SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT KCDS AND
KPVW...BUT WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TO AFFECT
KLBB IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A PROB30 FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY AT KCDS AND KPVW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SCT VFR DECKS WILL BECOME
BKN/OVC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT /THAT
AIDED IN PROVIDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/ PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS SAGGED SWRD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WANED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...IT IS NO
WONDER RATHER LIGHT ECHOES WERE BRIEFLY SEEN THERE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT LACKING OF ANY FORCING AND INSTABILITY MADE IT HARD-
PRESSED TO BE MAINTAINED. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHOWS STORMS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...WHILST DRIFTING SWRD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SWWRD TO ACROSS
ERN NM. FURTHERMORE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IS BEING
DEPICTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME PER THE HRRR. THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS INDEED ALMOST WANED
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVING POPPED UP ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND HAS DRIFTED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH
PLAINS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR/S DEPICTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES.
LATER TODAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING...THUS VEERING TO A S-SERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN. HINTS OF STORMS MAKING IT TO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THIS EVENING
THRU TONIGHT...THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...HENCE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS...AND
THEREFORE BEING THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SWRD TO ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
1.0-2.0 KJ/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND 0-6 KM OF BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
AOA 30 KTS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS HAVING THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND PERHAPS APPROACH
STRONG LEVELS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. /29
LONG TERM...
LATEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY THE
FOURTH STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY QUIET. THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PUMPED
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL EDGE CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND CANADA PAIRS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
TOPPING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STEER SOUTHWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM MENTION A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH OUR CONFIDENCE GAINING FROM SOLUTION CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS WITH MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT CERTAINLY IS AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN FAVOR OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD
CLEAR EAST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WEAKENING. BUT WE STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER NOW ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE
COULD DRAW HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED THAT FAR OUT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 64 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
TULIA 88 65 88 68 / 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 88 66 88 68 / 30 30 10 10
LEVELLAND 89 67 89 67 / 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 66 88 67 / 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 90 67 89 68 / 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 91 71 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
SPUR 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 92 72 93 73 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT /THAT
AIDED IN PROVIDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/ PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS SAGGED SWRD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WANED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...IT IS NO
WONDER RATHER LIGHT ECHOES WERE BRIEFLY SEEN THERE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT LACKING OF ANY FORCING AND INSTABILITY MADE IT HARD-
PRESSED TO BE MAINTAINED. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHOWS STORMS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...WHILST DRIFTING SWRD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SWWRD TO ACROSS
ERN NM. FURTHERMORE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IS BEING
DEPICTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME PER THE HRRR. THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS INDEED ALMOST WANED
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVING POPPED UP ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND HAS DRIFTED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH
PLAINS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR/S DEPICTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES.
LATER TODAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING...THUS VEERING TO A S-SERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN. HINTS OF STORMS MAKING IT TO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THIS EVENING
THRU TONIGHT...THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...HENCE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS...AND
THEREFORE BEING THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SWRD TO ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
1.0-2.0 KJ/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND 0-6 KM OF BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
AOA 30 KTS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS HAVING THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND PERHAPS APPROACH
STRONG LEVELS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. /29
.LONG TERM...
LATEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY THE
FOURTH STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY QUIET. THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PUMPED
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL EDGE CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND CANADA PAIRS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
TOPPING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STEER SOUTHWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM MENTION A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH OUR CONFIDENCE GAINING FROM SOLUTION CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS WITH MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT CERTAINLY IS AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN FAVOR OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD
CLEAR EAST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WEAKENING. BUT WE STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER NOW ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE
COULD DRAW HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED THAT FAR OUT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 64 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
TULIA 88 65 88 68 / 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 88 66 88 68 / 30 30 10 10
LEVELLAND 89 67 89 67 / 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 66 88 67 / 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 90 67 89 68 / 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 91 71 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
SPUR 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 92 72 93 73 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 822 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SHOWERS QUITE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM EARLIER WHICH BASICALLY
PUT A CAP ON DEEP INSTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF INSOLATION. EVENING
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN
DEEP CONVECTION THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE OFF TO THE WEST. THUS FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
BANDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPED BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SO CUT BACK
ON POPS TO LOWER CHANCE AT BEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THEN SOME
POSSIBLE SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES BUT IFFY. MOIST ENVIRONMENT UNDER SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD CANOPY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE FOG
ESPCLY EAST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS LONGER. LEFT LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH ONLY ANOTHER CATEGORY OR TWO FALL IN VALUES
EXPECTED UNDER THE SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING SOLAR INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KY/OHIO INTO WV/NRN VA BY AFTERNOON WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN TN. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHO GETS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
AN INCH OR LESS. SINCE WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF
ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS...AND WILL SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING TO THE DIFFICULT FORECAST ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER ACROSS VA/NC
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE UNSURE WHICH SURFACE LOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE
ONE. THE ONE THAT DOES WILL HAVE THE STRONGER STORMS...EITHER ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
OPT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICK AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR OVERALL
COVERAGE...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY. ON SUNDAY...THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW MAY SHIFT EAST AND MERGER WITH THE MID ATLANTIC LOW. THIS
MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
HALF WET WHILE BECOMING RAIN-FREE AND MOST CLOUDY NORTH. WITH RAIN
AND THICK CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE CONVERTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE MODELS...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
WEDGE IN PLAY...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC REGIME IS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DETAILS AND TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A GOOD
DEAL OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT CAN BE HANDLED WITH VCSH AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KLYH WHERE THEY SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOG HAS BEEN IN
AND OUT AT SEVERAL SITES AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PROHIBIT
THICK RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO CIGS WILL BE
COMING DOWN AND KBLF MAY WELL BE IN CLOUD FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
LIFR VSBY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING OVER THE AREA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS LEFT THE REGION WITH A
DEVELOPING WEDGE. AS THE UPPER TROF SHARPENS TODAY AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMES AT US FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
SCENARIO WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. BELIEVE THE NET RESULT WILL BE FOR A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THE
BOUNDARY WILL COME BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND...WHILE
KBCB/KBLF/KLWB SEE LIGHT UPSLOPE AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO
RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.
SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT. EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE. BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER. ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT. HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.
SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT. EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE. BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER. ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT. HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.
NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.
BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.
03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.
BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.
TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.
BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.
TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME
NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT.
FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.
IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.
OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.
02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.
SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.
FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE
AREA. SOME NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...2. CLOUIDS ARE CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A
SHORT NIGHT.
FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.
IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.
OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA. HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING. THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER. KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE
...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.
STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.
AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGIAN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
959 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL ELEVATE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS EVENING IS DEFINED UP AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATED OVER NEW MEXICO AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NUDGE EAST...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO MORE OF A POSITIVE
NE-SW TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER FAR SW
NEW MEXICO AND COCHISE COUNTY IN FAR SE ARIZONA HAS HELPED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN RATHER QUIET. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN MCV THAT TRACKED NORTH THRU THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST SONORA LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I
UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
SHOW A RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE CLOUDS
ARE MOSTLY LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED
INTO COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV SEEMINGLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES
AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. NORMALLY WHEN THESE
FEATURES DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THE CONVECTION TENDS TO DEVELOP ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT IS THE CASE CURRENTLY WITH
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF
TUCSON THROUGH PARTS OF THE METRO AND INTO THE CATALINA`S. THESE
STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER PARTS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.
THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR WANTS TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...AND THIS WOULD GIVE CREDANCE TO THE NOTION
THAT THE MCV TENDS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY NEAR THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR
(EVEN THE 16Z RUN) WERE SHOWING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...GIVEN THAT TODAY IS THE FOURTH...WITH
PLENTY OF EVENING FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED...THINK THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WOULD BE TO KEEP THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THEN...IF SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE 17Z RUN OF
THE HRRR WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CORRECT...THE EVENING SHIFT
CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LOWER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING EVENING HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
MODELS SUGGEST SUNDAY WITH BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE MCV HAVING
MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. IF WE SEE MORE SUN
TOMORROW...THEN WE SHOULD DEFINITELY HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY.
BY MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH MOISTURE EASTWARD...THUS LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE IS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEAK -SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/
-SHRA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
40-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT REDUCED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY. THEREAFTER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WX PATTERN AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MID
ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. NO SIG CHANGE IN POSITION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH THE
AXIS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL AND EXTENDING TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT SRLY
WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR...BCMG MORE W/SW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR AS
THE MID LVL PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED OVER S FL. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH 00Z RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.8" AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-
H70 MEAN RH ARND 70PCT...H85-H50 RH BTWN 60-70PCT.
ALOFT...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENHANCED MID LVL VORT MAX THAT WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE PENINSULA ON SAT MVG OFF THE E FL COAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE H85-H50 WRLY FLOW WITH MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...H30-H20 ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OMEGA PATTERN
OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE GULF STREAM...
GENERATING WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KTS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW NWD STORM MOTION...
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEAR FULL SUN THEY ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO
THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY
ARE IN THE U80S/L90S...WHICH SHOULD BE MET BY NOON. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND...SCT SHRAS/TSRA WILL DVLP W OF I-95...BCMG
NMRS ALONG AND W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION DVLPG AFT 21Z...REASONABLE GIVEN
THE DIMINISHED MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL DO
IS ALLOW THE LOW LVL AIRMASS TO COME TO A BOIL BY THE TIME THE SEA
BREEZES MERGE. LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS PSBL WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -8C
AND -9C. LIGHT WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME BLOWBACK
POTENTIAL...BUT WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION
PAST THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY BURN OUT BY EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
MON-WED...GFS/ECM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICKLY NEWD-DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT-TYPE LOW WITH A RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS THE CTRL BAHAMAS TUE-TUE NIGHT
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE FL STRAITS BY WED NIGHT.
WHILE THE MORE CONVECTIVELY SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL STILL SEE GRADUAL MEAN DRYING ASCD WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF BY
ABOUT 10 PCT EACH DAY FROM 50 COAST/60 INLAND MONDAY TO 30 COAST/40
INLAND BY WED.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN CWA...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...U80S/90F
AT/NEAR THE COAST AND L90S FARTHER INLAND. MINS AROUND 73-75F.
THU-SUN...THE TUTT OVER THE FL STRAITS DEFORMS AS ITS REMAINS DAMPEN
OUT WWD INTO THE SRN GOMEX. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FL REMAINS IN
CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT BY SUNDAY SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION FARTHER
EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SRN/SERN CONUS AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NRLY OVER
FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. THE ECM SHOWS BROADER BUT LESS AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC WITH LOWER H50 HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW AS A BROAD COL DEVELOPS OVHD BY SUN.
THE GFS "BACK DOORS" A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE SWD THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECM DOES SHOW SOME MOISTENING TAKING PLACE...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE
SAME EXTENT. TEH CURRENT FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PROBS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THU-FRI...SLOWLY RISING BY NEXT SAT
OWING TO AT LEAST SOME ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 06/12Z...
SFC WINDS: THRU 05/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 05/13Z-05/16Z...BCMG
E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S 5-8KTS. BTWN
05/17Z-05/20Z...BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS ALNG I-4 CORRIDOR...AFT 05/20Z AT
KLEE. BTWN 06/03Z-06/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 05/15Z-05/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 05/18Z-05/24Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...BTWN 05/22Z-06/01Z SLGT CHC +TSRA
WITH SFC G40KTS INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN
06/01Z-06/03Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC
WATERS... S/SE OFF THE TREASURE COAST...S/SW N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
WINDS BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
MON-THU...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE MAOR IN A
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR BOATING WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WIND
FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRC NEAR THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO MODESTLY INCREASE AND BACK MORE
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 60 30
MCO 95 74 92 74 / 60 20 60 30
MLB 89 73 89 75 / 40 10 50 20
VRB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
LEE 95 72 92 76 / 60 20 60 30
SFB 94 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30
ORL 95 74 92 75 / 60 20 60 30
FPR 89 72 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 69 86 69 / 60 40 50 20
ATLANTA 81 69 84 71 / 60 40 50 20
BLAIRSVILLE 76 63 79 64 / 70 50 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 80 68 84 68 / 70 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 85 71 87 72 / 60 40 50 30
GAINESVILLE 80 68 83 70 / 60 50 50 20
MACON 88 70 88 71 / 60 40 50 20
ROME 81 68 85 68 / 70 40 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 82 69 85 69 / 60 40 50 20
VIDALIA 92 72 89 72 / 60 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1108 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS CONTINUING TO BRING A RATHER QUIET WEATHER SCENE TO
CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM
AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ANY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A RESULT...NO EVENING UPDATE WILL BE
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK
DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME HAZY
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITH FAIR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
APPEAR IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH HRRR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS WEEK. LATEST NAM MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT AND
HAS IT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE
THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING
JUST EAST OF I-55 BY THAT TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER.
HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE POP`S MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH THE MAIN SHOW COMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE.
SUCH VALUES LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
ON STALLING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THIS INDEED STALLS OVER OUR AREA...BUT IN
THE MEANTIME WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW (5% ON LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK) AS
THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHWARD SURGE IN
THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE SHOWING A
FAIR RANGE IN THESE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONVERGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GFS WITH IT MORE OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE EXACTLY TO FOCUS THE
HIGHER POP`S LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO AROUND 40%
UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE THREAT FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS
IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT
WIND AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST CMI...DEC AND SPI MAY SEE THE LOWEST VSBYS
IN FOG/HAZE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES
FORM SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 13Z/8AM...AFTER WHICH JUST SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES OF 2500-3500 FEET
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONCENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...OMITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 10 30 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 30 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 10 40 60 30
P28 97 74 89 66 / 20 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS. HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS. BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 10 30 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 30 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 10 40 60 30
P28 97 74 89 66 / 20 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
AT 00Z SUNDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEING LOCATED NEAR THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AXIS
OVER EASTERN UTAH. A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA TO WESTERN KANSAS. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +10C AT
DODGE CITY TO +16C AT DENVER. AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE WAS ALSO
LOCATED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE +12 TO +14Z TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. A SURFACE AND 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WITH MID 20C 850MB TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AT 00Z SUNDAY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT 03Z A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHERE WEAK 850MB-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WERE
LOCATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEBRASKA WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
AROUND 12 CELSIUS WHICH MAY INHIBIT AN MCS FROM DEVELOPING. TIMING
OF THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE FROM 10 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH QUARTER TO
LARGER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH STORMS IN THE HAYS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22
MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MILD AND FROM 68 TO 71 DEGREES.
FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 85 62 80 / 30 70 70 20
GCK 71 82 61 81 / 30 60 50 10
EHA 69 81 61 81 / 30 40 40 20
LBL 72 83 62 80 / 20 70 60 30
HYS 72 82 61 82 / 40 60 60 20
P28 74 89 66 79 / 10 70 80 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS. HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS. BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...BASED ON
LATEST GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS...TIMING OF FROPA THRU THE CWA HAS SLOWED.
MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTING TREK THRU THE REGION BY 00Z
MONDAY IN NE COLORADO...FOLLOWED BY 700MB TROUGH BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
MONDAY. THIS TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AIDED BY
DYNAMICS OF TROUGH...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION THRU THE DAY
MONDAY AS FRONT REMAINS OVER EASTERN ZONES THRU 00Z TUESDAY. HIGH
PW/S VALUES STILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT HAVE SHIFTED
ENHANCEMENT IN RW TO +RW TO COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH. WARMEST LOWS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL OCCUR EARLY ON
AS FRONT BEGINS SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING FOR NUMBERS TO RANGE
FROM LOWS 60S WEST TO NEAR 70F EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
ON MONDAY...WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL VALUES AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN
INCREASING WARMING TREND WITH CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR MUCH OF
TIME...IS EXPECTED. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE AS WEEK PROGRESSES WITH WSW FLOW.
ALSO...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL WORK AROUND THE THE LOW...MOVE THRU
THE ROCKIES OVER THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WILL COMBINE WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHS TO GIVE
AREA CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS THE WED/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE GOING TO VARY
FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WARM WITH A SOUTHEAST BREEZE...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
A MODERATE CAP SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WITH
INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...AND
SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS TO MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TO PROVIDE MOIST
ADVECTION ALOFT BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE MCS TO SOME DEGREE INTO CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS
APPEARS TO FALL BETWEEN 3 AM AND 10 AM WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
BEING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. MUCAPE MAY BE
ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME MODERATE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR BUT BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE LOW WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STONES...AND AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
WITH A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ENSUING. SO LONG AS SUNSHINE IS NOT
LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND IT SHOULD NOT BE BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 70. THIS SHOULD GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMAL INHIBITION BUT WHAT IS LACKING IS A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL WANT
TO WATCH ANY OUTFLOW THAT MAY DEVELOP WITH EARLY CONVECTION BUT FOR
NOW ONLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF A
MARYSVILLE TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...
QUALITY INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ON SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER SD AND NE, WHICH WILL GUIDE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS ON TRACK TO GET ABSORBED BY A DECENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN US. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY APPEARS TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER KS AND MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE DEW POINTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS
IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE THAT STEEP, AND THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY ONLY BE AROUND 20 KTS. INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH
REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GEM ARE THE SLOWEST
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH LOCATIONS SEE THE ORGANIZED STORMS, AND WHEN NORTH
CENTRAL KS WILL DRY OUT. AS FOR NOW THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL RUN INTO SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS, WHICH COULD BE VERY HEAVY
AND EFFICIENT. MODELS AGREE THAT PWAT VALUES APPROACH AS HIGH AS 2.5
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REACH 12 KFT THEREFORE SUPPORTING THIS
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.75 INCHES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THEREFORE IT STALLS
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US AND OVER THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SEND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KS.
WITH SATURATED GROUNDS IN PLACE FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IS THIS
WERE TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF
THIS PRECIP POSING LESS OF A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ISSUES. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIP MISSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL MORE
OF THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EACH
CAUSING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOMEWHERE. AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK, BUT LATE WEEK
LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRACH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...OMITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/
.LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.
&&
.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 91 73 / 60 30 20 10
BTR 88 74 92 74 / 40 10 10 10
ASD 88 73 91 74 / 50 20 20 10
MSY 88 76 91 77 / 50 20 20 10
GPT 86 76 87 77 / 50 30 20 10
PQL 87 72 89 74 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...WILL STAY WITH VFR AND VCSH BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, NOCTURNAL GULF DEVELOPMENT,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY VCTS AND VFR EXCEPT AEX
WHERE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM A MOISTURE POOL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT -TSRA WITH VFR TO START WITH. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
RADAR IMAGERY DEFINE PERIODS OF ANY MVFR TEMPOS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 90 75 93 / 60 40 10 10
LCH 76 90 77 92 / 20 20 10 10
LFT 75 90 76 92 / 50 30 10 10
BPT 77 91 78 92 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD IS REMAINING
HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD
PERSIST AT EAU AND RNH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HAZE...AND BETWEEN
09Z-13Z THIS COULD BECOME IFR AS THE CONDENSATION NUCLEI FROM THE
SMOKE COULD HELP PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR. THE SMOKE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW STORMS COULD
PUSH INTO WESTERN MN IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND AXN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING...WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
00-06Z. RWF AND STC COULD POTENTIALLY BE IMPACTED BEFORE 06Z AS
WELL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING LOOK LIKE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
KMSP...SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AT THE
TERMINAL...AND ALTHOUGH THE THICKEST HAZE WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST...MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MSP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS AFTER NOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY ADJUST POPS AND WX THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE REGION IS FOCUSED IN
THE HEART OF A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER
TODAY WITH MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING IN AN ARC FROM
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
ARKLATEX. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS NEXT INCOMING LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH OVERHEAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPARK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AT WHICH POINT POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES A GREAT DEAL. POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME FOCUSED ON THIS MENTIONED AXIS AND REDUCED ELSEWHERE. OF
COURSE SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY BUT UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING A BIT
MUCH TO WARRANT TRYING TO PINPOINT JUST YET IN THE HWO. MAY DO THAT
WITH THE OFFICIAL EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. UPDATES OUT THE DOOR. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD./7/
AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 84 72 89 / 37 59 60 23
MERIDIAN 70 83 69 89 / 29 58 64 37
VICKSBURG 70 85 73 91 / 54 59 52 16
HATTIESBURG 71 84 73 91 / 50 66 34 18
NATCHEZ 71 87 73 90 / 59 61 22 15
GREENVILLE 71 86 72 90 / 20 46 60 23
GREENWOOD 68 85 71 89 / 18 47 53 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/7/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.
SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&
.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO KEEP GOING IN AND AROUND DEATH VALLEY
NATIONAL PARK THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK LOOKING ON RADAR, IT IS HARD TO STILL DISCOUNT A THUNDERSTORM
OUT THERE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS POPS WERE INCREASED
AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDED IN THIS AREA FOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT LATER ON BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST/WEST STEERING
FLOW. THE HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD WANE BY 08Z
SUNDAY OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHIFT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT BUT IT MAY
NOT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z-07Z SUNDAY AS SPEEDS REMAIN WEAK AND
SUPPORT ALOFT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT TO ALLOW ANY HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. LOCAL AREAS
OF FU ALOFT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE IS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA SHOULD END BY 08Z OR SO SUNDAY ACROSS INYO AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT 08Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH
THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR
THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM ALONG...AND/OR MOVE
TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.
HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...AND WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH A
DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.
HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.
&&
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.
&&
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...
A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.
&&
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...HUMID SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS, OTHERWISE MOST OTHER CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS LOOK A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM-12
WAS FORECASTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
VICINITY OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY AROUND 1
AM. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY CENTRAL LEG AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FT
THERE. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH
WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS
RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.
STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ATOP THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
BENEATH REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JETMAX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
VORT IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE H5 LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. A
STRONGER IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF AROUND DAYBREAK LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS EASTCENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH WEAK...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF SAID ACTIVITY YIELDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SW VA WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE AND THUS RESIDUAL MODEL QPF TODAY. THAT SAID...CANNOT
RULE OUT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
MTNS THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
FROM MODEST SSW LLJ. THE FCST FEATURES NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GA/NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. POPS ARE TAPERED DOWN A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WHERE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LEVELS ARE FAVORED. ALL SAID...AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE/CONVECTION THIS MORNING THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL BEFORE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. EVEN
THEN...MODELS FAVOR RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES THUS WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY TSRA WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS BEING SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE
BEST HEATING IS LIKELY. POPS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST. WITH
THAT...THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH
EXPIRATION AT 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AMIDST PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.
BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% HIGH 88% HIGH 97% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 86% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 96% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NC AT THIS TIME. RATES HAVENT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BEST THERMO FORCING
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EVIDENT ON LATEST SPC MUCAPE PLOTS.
TWEAKED POPS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
COVERAGE AND CAMPOP TRENDS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL THEREFORE NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE/NEEDED IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 57% MED 78% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 66% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z NORTHEAST OF A KADM /ARDMORE OKLAHOMA/
TO KF44 /ATHENS TEXAS/ LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES.
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF 04Z...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WACO REGION BY
11Z AND MAYBE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 13Z. THUS HAVE PLACED
BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 11-16Z PERIOD AND A TEMPO BKN025 IN
THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 13-16Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SENT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BACK TO THE WEST WHICH HAS SINCE SUPPORTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. AIDED BY WEAK ASCENT FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL
SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THIS CONVECTION
HAS EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF FANNIN...LAMAR AND
DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY
THE HRRR THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF NORTH TEXAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
EARLY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND SOUTH NEAR A LINE
FROM COPPERAS COVE TO CENTERVILLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GOOD
NEWS FOR THIS EVENING`S INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES IS THAT
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND RADAR DATA DO NOT INDICATE ANY SOURCE OF
ORGANIZED LIFT TO SUPPORT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITHOUT AN
OBVIOUS SOURCE OF LIFT...ASSUME BUOYANCY IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY
MEANS OF CONVECTION INITIATION...AND BUOYANCY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HEATING BUDGET TURNS
OVER TO COOLING VERSUS WARMING.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDED THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS TO
INCLUDE COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS DEVELOPING AT 230 PM CDT.
LEFT IN THE 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN CENTRAL TEXAS
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO THE GULF COAST. LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS OUTFLOW
FROM THE PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION NEAR ARKLATEX HAS
LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE LAMAR/RED RIVER COUNTY LINE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
CAUSING A REGENERATION OF STORMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NOW...AND
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD OVER LAMAR...DELTA...AND
HOPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LEFT 10 POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OTHER AREAS AS A "POP-UP" SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DRIVEN BY
THE HEATING OF THE DAY/BUOYANCY IS HARD TO RULE OUT JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 7 PM.
FOR THIS EVENING...THINK THAT ANY BUOYANCY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET...BEFORE 9 PM. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTERRUPT EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES
IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE TO
EMORY LINE. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD FROM RED RIVER
COUNTY...IT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST SUNSET. THINK
THAT WITH SUBSIDENCE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION IN
GENERAL...THAT A LOT OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ONLY CARRY 20
POPS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS EVENING...AND MOST INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO COMMENCE WITHOUT DELAY OR INTERRUPTION FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY...MANY OF THE CONVECTION PARAMETERIZING MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE QPF OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SIMPLY WENT AHEAD WITH 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA AS AN ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM WAS DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT IN ANY OF THE MODEL DATA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO APPEARS TO
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS ENERGY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. THINK
THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE.
IF THE ONGOING MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION SIMPLY CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IT MAY LEAVE A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY. IF A COHERENT BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN CWA TOMORROW...THE LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS OUR CWA WOULD REPRESENT THE
WARMER SIDE OF THIS WEAK FRONT. LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN PLACE ALONG A
LINE FROM BONHAM TO EMORY TO HEARNE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...IF NO BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE...MAY BE ABLE TO
LOWER THESE POPS TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA...SO LEFT 10 POPS IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THIS TROUGH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
LINED UP WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD ONLY ADD RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
HELP SEND THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE STORMS ARE
ALONG THIS FRONT...THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...IT
WILL PROBABLY STALL OUT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE CWA IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BASICALLY RELYING ON THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO DRAG IT
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A VALID
SOLUTION...STRONG CONSOLIDATED COLD POOLS OFTEN TIMES ACT JUST
LIKE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTS. THE MAIN REASON CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IS BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT ARE
ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION DO NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
CONVECTION...BUT RATHER PARAMETERIZE CONVECTION TO SAVE
COMPUTATION TIME.
CONVECTION IS COMPLEX...AND IF THE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE AS MANY
STORMS ALONG IT AS MODELS ARE INDICATING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY
STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IF THAT OCCURS...OUR RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL BRING THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THIS CONSENSUS UNLESS OBSERVATION
DATA...I.E. A SPARSE COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
UPSTREAM...INDICATES OTHERWISE. ASSUMING THE FRONT MAKES IT TO
NORTH TEXAS...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ASSUMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD AS ADVERTISED...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WHILE HEAT BUILDS
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 NEXT WEEKEND WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE MOST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
HIGHS START OUT IN THE MID 90S...CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 77 93 77 / 10 10 5 5 10
WACO, TX 75 92 75 93 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 73 89 74 90 75 / 30 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 75 92 75 93 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 91 75 91 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 77 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 75 90 75 92 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 92 75 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 91 74 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 74 92 74 93 75 / 10 10 5 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.
VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.
STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
706 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.DISCUSSION... MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME EVEN MORE MOIST AS
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PULL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CUMULUS
ALREADY STARTING TO FORM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THREE COUNTIES OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE 9AM BUOY OBS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAD SHIFTED TEMPORARILY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL BUT FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH AGAIN PER THE 05/06Z GFS RUN.
MADE EARLIER UPDATES TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING POP AND WX GRIDS NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE
COAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
REST OF THE FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING LOOKS
GOOD.
.AVIATION...THE 5SM IN HAZE AT KLEE AND KTIX SHOULD MIX OUT MID
MORNING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPO MVFR 16Z-19Z VCTS COASTAL LOCATIONS KTIX SOUTH. TEMPO MVFR 20Z-
23Z VCTS INTERIOR SITES.
.MARINE...NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE FORMED
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY NOON...COME ASHORE...CROSSED THE INDIAN
RIVER LAGOON AND HEADING FOR INTERSTATE 95. SEA BREEZE A LITTLE
LATER...BY MID AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
BOATERS ON THE WATER NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT FOR EASTWARD MOVING STORMS.
PREVIOUS AFD
PERSISTENT WX PATTERN AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MID
ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. NO SIG CHANGE IN POSITION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH THE
AXIS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL AND EXTENDING TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT SRLY
WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR...BCMG MORE W/SW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR AS
THE MID LVL PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED OVER S FL. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH 00Z RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.8" AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-
H70 MEAN RH ARND 70PCT...H85-H50 RH BTWN 60-70PCT.
ALOFT...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENHANCED MID LVL VORT MAX THAT WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE PENINSULA ON SAT MVG OFF THE E FL COAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE H85-H50 WRLY FLOW WITH MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...H30-H20 ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OMEGA PATTERN
OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE GULF STREAM...
GENERATING WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KTS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW NWD STORM MOTION...
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEAR FULL SUN THEY ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO
THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY
ARE IN THE U80S/L90S...WHICH SHOULD BE MET BY NOON. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND...SCT SHRAS/TSRA WILL DVLP W OF I-95...BCMG
NMRS ALONG AND W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION DVLPG AFT 21Z...REASONABLE GIVEN
THE DIMINISHED MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL DO
IS ALLOW THE LOW LVL AIRMASS TO COME TO A BOIL BY THE TIME THE SEA
BREEZES MERGE. LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS PSBL WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -8C
AND -9C. LIGHT WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME BLOWBACK
POTENTIAL...BUT WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION
PAST THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY BURN OUT BY EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
MON-WED...GFS/ECM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICKLY NEWD-DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT-TYPE LOW WITH A RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS THE CTRL BAHAMAS TUE-TUE NIGHT
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE FL STRAITS BY WED NIGHT.
WHILE THE MORE CONVECTIVELY SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL STILL SEE GRADUAL MEAN DRYING ASCD WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF BY
ABOUT 10 PCT EACH DAY FROM 50 COAST/60 INLAND MONDAY TO 30 COAST/40
INLAND BY WED.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN CWA...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...U80S/90F
AT/NEAR THE COAST AND L90S FARTHER INLAND. MINS AROUND 73-75F.
THU-SUN...THE TUTT OVER THE FL STRAITS DEFORMS AS ITS REMAINS DAMPEN
OUT WWD INTO THE SRN GOMEX. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FL REMAINS IN
CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT BY SUNDAY SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION FARTHER
EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SRN/SERN CONUS AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NRLY OVER
FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. THE ECM SHOWS BROADER BUT LESS AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC WITH LOWER H50 HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW AS A BROAD COL DEVELOPS OVHD BY SUN.
THE GFS "BACK DOORS" A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE SWD THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECM DOES SHOW SOME MOISTENING TAKING PLACE...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE
SAME EXTENT. TEH CURRENT FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PROBS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THU-FRI...SLOWLY RISING BY NEXT SAT
OWING TO AT LEAST SOME ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 06/12Z...
SFC WINDS: THRU 05/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 05/13Z-05/16Z...BCMG
E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S 5-8KTS. BTWN
05/17Z-05/20Z...BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS ALNG I-4 CORRIDOR...AFT 05/20Z AT
KLEE. BTWN 06/03Z-06/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 05/15Z-05/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 05/18Z-05/24Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...BTWN 05/22Z-06/01Z SLGT CHC +TSRA
WITH SFC G40KTS INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN
06/01Z-06/03Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC
WATERS... S/SE OFF THE TREASURE COAST...S/SW N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
WINDS BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
MON-THU...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE MAOR IN A
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR BOATING WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WIND
FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRC NEAR THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO MODESTLY INCREASE AND BACK MORE
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 60 30
MCO 95 74 92 74 / 60 20 60 30
MLB 89 73 89 75 / 40 10 50 20
VRB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
LEE 95 72 92 76 / 60 20 60 30
SFB 94 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30
ORL 95 74 92 75 / 60 20 60 30
FPR 89 72 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING LESS THAN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING THEN DECREASE TONIGHT 10-20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 10 20 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 20 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 20 30 60 30
P28 97 74 89 66 / 20 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED
TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...
WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY
COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS.
KRAUTMANN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/
LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.
MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 91 73 / 60 30 20 10
BTR 88 74 92 74 / 40 10 10 10
ASD 88 73 91 74 / 50 20 20 10
MSY 88 76 91 77 / 50 20 20 10
GPT 86 76 87 77 / 50 30 20 10
PQL 87 72 89 74 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
947 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY (NUMEROUS) ACROSS THE
N AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON FCST SHWR CVRG FROM FCST
HRLY SIM RADAR REF FROM THE HRRR MODEL. GIVEN GREATER CLD CVR
ACROSS THE N...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS HERE...BUT RAISED HI TEMPS
ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST A COUPLE OF MORE DEG F WHERE THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVR OUR FA IS XPCTD...AND WHERE WE XPCT LMTD
SEA BREEZE ALG THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST (MAYBE A FEW MILES
INLAND). FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THIS EVE BASED ON
THESE CHGS AND OBSVD 9 AM OBS...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF HR
TO HR FCST TEMPS WHERE SHWRS ARE MOST NUMEROUS. REGARDING MAX
CNVCTV POTENTIAL...WE DO NOT HAVE ANY MORE CERTAINTY THEN THE
PRIOR MID SHIFT...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHC TSTMS W/O ANY ENHANCED
WORDING AND WILL CONT TO MONITOR.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO SHOW MORE SUN THIS MORNING
AND PULLED BACK THE POPS A BIT BASED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY. STILL LOOKING FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED TO
FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AS SOME AREAS TO THE W AND NW DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 40S SUCH AS K40B(CLAYTON LAKE). REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS OK.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AT
KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL
APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VCSH USED AT KRWF AND
KAXN. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT
KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF IN THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS INSERTED INTO
THE TEMPO GROUPS AS THE STORMS BOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE
LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE MVFR
OR LOWER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTN...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
329 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL
OFF THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE/CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW
STRONG CELLS IN EACH LOCATION. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SHEAR
SLIGHTLY...SO THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. PWATS ARE STILL 0.8 TO AROUND 1.0 INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH...SO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A THREAT. DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD END CONVECTION
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS TIME...CENTRAL NEVADA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
NAM/GFS/SHREF AGREE NICELY ON LOCATION OF PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FAVORABLE DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING
PULSE/MULTICELLUAR STORMS. PWATS WILL LOWER TO 0.75 INCHES...SO
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
STORMS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT EVENT SEEMS IN THE
OFFERING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE LOSING CONGRUENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST MOVING INLAND AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPS THE LOW STATIONARY FOR A LITTLE LONGER...THROWING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO ITS ECCENTRIC ROTATION.
THE ENSEMBLE SUGGESTION IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BRUSH NEVADA AS AN
OPEN WAVE LATER THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL TAF SITES COULD BE
AFFECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH DRIER
STORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET.
PWATS DROP ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE HYBRID STORMS. THE STORMY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY INCREASING IN
NW NEVADA LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES IN.
MODEST/GOOD RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
94/92/92/94
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
CWA ARE STARTING TO PUT OUT SOME WIND...AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
CIGS VFR. THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
CIGS VFR. THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
CIGS VFR. THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED
1045 AM UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.
STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.
STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ROUNDING THE CIRCULATION...BUT
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RADARS ALSO SHOW CONVECTION SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW SHOULD
STEADILY FILL IN OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THE SRN TIER
CONVECTION MAY WRAP UP ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AS WELL...SO A GENERAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FROM TOCCOA TO ELBERTON AND ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE...SO WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 00Z.
OTHERWISE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND
SCATTER...BUT LAPS SBCAPE IS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH PLENTY OF 1000
TO 1300 J/KG VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS. WITH ANY BREAKS AT
ALL...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MANAGE TO FIRE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL
BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
THROUGH LATE DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
OUR FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE NVA SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.
BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SHOULD
SCATTER MORE RAPIDLY 15Z TO 17Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AIRFIELD 18Z TO 19Z...BUT
IT HAS BEEN OVERDONE ON RECENT DAYS IN THIS AIRMASS. A NARROW TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN SINCE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1500 J/KG NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE SW
WINDS TO INCREASE WITH LOW END GUSTS WITH MIXING. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ANY RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY
NOON. LOWER VFR CIGS WILL FILL IN WITH ANY HEATING...AND SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL GIVEN THE UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY FORM THROUGHOUT WITH SBCAPE OFF
TO A GOOD START DESPITE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS. SW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE SITES THIS AFTN WITH MIXING.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
944 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS HAS QUICKLY FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
SINCE SUNRISE...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AN EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST WORDING ACCORDINGLY.
STILL APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MIDSUMMER PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WSR-88D PROFILERS
SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TN...LIFTING EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AR...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.
TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW LIFT INTO EASTERN KY...WITH GRADUALLY
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OR
REDEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE WEEK...AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DROPS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I40 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL DOWN TO OR BELOW
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER A TWO WEEK PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TS. ADDED VCTS
AT ALL 4 SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS STORMS
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW 5-8KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 2-4KTS OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
657 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MIDSUMMER PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WSR-88D PROFILERS
SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TN...LIFTING EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AR...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.
TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW LIFT INTO EASTERN KY...WITH GRADUALLY
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OR
REDEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE WEEK...AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DROPS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I40 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL DOWN TO OR BELOW
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER A TWO WEEK PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TS. ADDED VCTS
AT ALL 4 SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS STORMS
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW 5-8KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 2-4KTS OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.
MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.
PC
&&
.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY. HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.
VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.
STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
MARINE...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AGAIN TODAY...
DECREASING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND. THE MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2600 FT. THIS
WAS ABOUT 300 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY ANS THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVERALL
AND HAD ACTUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL FOR A TIME THIS MORNING TO NV.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AT 9 AM PDT IN THE WIND-PRONE DESERT PASSES AND
SLOPES WERE UNDER 25 MPH.
GIVEN THE INFERRED DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK AND VERY STRONG
INVERSION...CLEARING MY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN...EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE STRATUS SPREADS BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEST OF THE MTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...BUT STILL SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS.
CONVECTION PARAMETERS...
MOISTURE...BASED ON GPS SENSORS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE PW
LEVEL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MTS
ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS WHERE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT DEEP HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S F...SOME OF THIS HAS BLED INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS. (MODERATE)
STABILITY...BASED ON THE NKX SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
12Z YESTERDAY WITH A MODIFIED MU CAPE OF 604 J/K VS. 247 YESTERDAY.
THE 12Z NAM12 BASED MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 21Z OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INDICATE MU CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/K WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. EXPERIMENTAL NUCAPS (SATELLITE DERIVED
SOUNDING) OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AT 10Z SHOWS LOW VALUES OF
MODIFIED CAPE. (WEAK/MODERATE)
WINDS...WEAK WINDS BELOW 500 MBS SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOLAR INSOLATION...FULL SUN EXPECTED FOR HEATING (STRONG)
MODEL FORECAST PRECIP...THE LATEST 12Z WRFEMS HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM RUN...OTHERWISE
DRY. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 15Z HRRR SHOWS MODEST PRECIP
BULLS EYES AT MOUNTAIN TOP ALL ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTH INTO BAJA.
SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER IS EXPECTED AND CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER DESERTS...AND MAYBE OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER CAN BE DRAWN UP THE LOWER DESERT SLOPE TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. PARAMETERS LOOK
WEAKER ON MON...WITH LESS MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIP INDICATED BY THE LATEST WRF OR NAM.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW...WHILE THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGHING. THIS IS MOSTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WHILE BOTH SUGGEST DRY WEATHER...THE EXTENT OF
MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND...AND RESULTANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT.
&&
.AVIATION... 051610Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR 17-19Z TO ABOUT 5 MILES FROM THE COAST...WITH BASES
1400-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 19Z...AREAS
OF BKN STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
CLOUD BASES.
MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MOSTLY
9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...FRONT TO BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
OVER 120-160% OF NORMAL...MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE POTENTIAL FLOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
HELPING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SO AS DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THROUGH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
CO...THIS WILL SEND A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS. FORCING APPEARS A BIT STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CO WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-
35 MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GFS STILL THE MORE HEAVY HANDED OF THE MODELS. MAJORITY
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HARD TO ARGUE WITH KEEPING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME OUT WEST...AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/-
TSRA ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE
PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM/MCS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD START TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS NV
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP WATERS FALL OFF A BIT IN BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...SO PERHAPS
A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OUT THAT WAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS...SO ASSUMING WE CAN
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
STRONG STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN STRONGER CONVECTION MAY STAY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD OVER STABLE
AIRMASS...AND DIMINISHING. VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SCENARIO.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH PLAINS LOOKING
MORE CAPPED. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25. BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT MOST
PRECIP TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA FARTHER EAST. ON TUESDAY...MUCH THE SAME SET-UP
AS MONDAY...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE AGAIN LACK OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS WILL MEAN
ONLY SOME WEAK CONVECTION EAST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE MAXES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND
THU...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW STAYS S-SW AS UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND UPPER HIGH IS FAIRLY FAR EAST OVER THE GULF
COAST. INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON AS CAPES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1000 J/KG...AND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES BOTH WED/THU. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA CYCLE AS WELL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS ALL AREAS AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW UPWARD CRAWL...WITH READINGS BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THU AFTERNOON.
FRI-SUN PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER/WARMER AS WESTERN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FLAT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE TAP WILL STAY SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S/90S LOWER ELEVATIONS...NOT TOO HOT BY MID
JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
KCOS AND KPUB...
A BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH BETWEEN 21-23Z BRINGING A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
VCTS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF
-TSRA FOR THE TAF SITES. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP STARTING AROUND 1300Z
AS A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND 17-18Z MONDAY MORNING.
KALS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LUKINBEAL
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...AEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.
S/SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB BTWN 19 AND 20Z...WITH S
SEABREEZE WORKING INTO KLGA BTWN 18 AND 19Z. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS
EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WITH
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1226 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TN WELL DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.
WV STILL SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GOMEX. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTH AND THEN IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NORTHERN PRECIP IS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW...AND MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE. THE PRECIP DOWN SOUTH IS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
DOWN SOUTH...WHEREAS THE WRF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP UP
NORTH. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
HOW THE CONVECTION DOWN ALONG THE COAST EVOLVES.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS
ITS CLOSED CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR. ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING AND
HAS ROTATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ANOTHER BAND FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER BY
MID MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND INTO COLUMBUS THROUGH 12Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THEREAFTER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THINKING WE WILL HAVE
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED SPOKE OF VORTICITY COMING UP FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION TO AFFECT AREAS FROM CSG TO AHN AND SOUTHWARD. SECOND AREA
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS LOW CLOUDS EVENTUALLY THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. UPPER
LOW THEN PROVIDES THE NECESSARY ENERGY FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF
STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ATL METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO -10C AT 500MB WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DUE TO THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP FOR NORTH GA...WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
UPPER LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND HINTS OF SOME DRIER
AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKING IN SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCED POPS.
SOME GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY BUT WOULD
LIKE ATMOSPHERE TO PROVE IT TO ME FIRST BASED ON ACTIVE PATTERN
THIS SUMMER. HAVE THEREFORE GONE CLOSER TO 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER RIDGE
INFLUENCE BEGINS TO TAKE BETTER HOLD BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
RIDGE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HEAT WILL WARRANT HOLDING
ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... AND
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX HEATING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAYBE AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROGGING SOME LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE GONE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SCT IFR. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH SCT COVERAGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 68 86 70 / 50 50 30 20
ATLANTA 81 70 84 71 / 50 40 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 63 81 64 / 50 50 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 81 67 84 69 / 50 40 40 20
COLUMBUS 83 70 87 72 / 60 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 80 68 84 70 / 50 50 30 20
MACON 86 69 88 71 / 60 40 40 20
ROME 81 68 85 69 / 60 30 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 85 70 / 60 30 40 20
VIDALIA 90 71 88 72 / 60 50 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN AT OR JUST EAST OF ORD/MDW TODAY.
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES LAKE BREEZE MAKING WEAK INROADS
ATTM. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO STAY JUST EAST OF MDW AND
ORD TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SHUNT THE LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONFINE THE EAST WINDS TO WITHIN 5 MILES
OF THE SHORE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
REMAIN AT 4-5KFT TODAY. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY GATHER INTO A BROKEN
DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO
RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DECENT MIXING TO 850MB WILL ALLOW 25KT WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FROPA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-LOW IN LAKE BREEZE STAYING EAST OF TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.
THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
224 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW TODAY.
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES LAKE BREEZE MAKING WEAK INROADS
ATTM. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO STAY JUST EAST OF MDW AND
ORD TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SHUNT THE LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONFINE THE EAST WINDS TO WITHIN 5 MILES
OF THE SHORE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
REMAIN AT 4-5KFT TODAY. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY GATHER INTO A BROKEN
DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO
RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DECENT MIXING TO 850MB WILL ALLOW 25KT WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FROPA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE STAYING EAST OF TAF SITES.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.
THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW TODAY.
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES LAKE BREEZE MAKING WEAK INROADS
ATTM. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO STAY JUST EAST OF MDW AND
ORD TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SHUNT THE LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONFINE THE EAST WINDS TO WITHIN 5 MILES
OF THE SHORE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
REMAIN AT 4-5KFT TODAY. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY GATHER INTO A BROKEN
DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO
RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DECENT MIXING TO 850MB WILL ALLOW 25KT WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FROPA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE STAYING EAST OF TAF SITES.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
309 AM CDT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT
WILL BE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
WIND PERSISTING TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO INITIALLY 15 TO
25 KT...BUT THEN INCREASING TO 30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE 30KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF STRONGEST
SPEEDS. STILL THINK THAT HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NEARSHORES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH GALES DONT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WINDOW
OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH LINGERING HIGHER WAVES
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF AND NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS TODAY.
RODRIGUEZ/MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH VIS RESTRICTION
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SMOKE/HAZE/FOG IN PLACE FROM
OVERNIGHT WONT LIKELY DIMINISH OR MIX OUT UNTIL WINDS PICK
UP...LIKELY IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. HOWEVER...VIS SHOULD
BE SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THAT TIME. VFR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS REMAINING SOUTH TODAY.
RODRIGUEZ/MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
309 AM CDT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT
WILL BE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
WIND PERSISTING TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO INITIALLY 15 TO
25 KT...BUT THEN INCREASING TO 30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE 30KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF STRONGEST
SPEEDS. STILL THINK THAT HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NEARSHORES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH GALES DONT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WINDOW
OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH LINGERING HIGHER WAVES
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF AND NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 20 20 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 20 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 20 30 60 30
P28 98 74 89 66 / 10 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/
LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.
MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 91 73 / 70 30 20 10
BTR 88 74 92 74 / 60 20 10 10
ASD 88 73 91 74 / 60 30 20 10
MSY 88 76 91 77 / 60 20 20 10
GPT 86 76 87 77 / 70 30 20 10
PQL 87 72 89 74 / 70 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: JUST ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HI TEMPS A DEG
OR 2 F OVR NE...CNTRL AND COASTAL DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION
BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM 1 PM SFC OBS. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE THEN
UPDATED INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: LATEST ACTUAL RADAR REF INDICATING A LITTLE LESS
SHWR CVRG THEN SHOWN BY THE 13Z HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF RUN...
BUT WITH THE LATEST 15Z HRRR MODEL RUN STILL INDICATING MORE SHWR
AND ISOLD TO SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVR THE N AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS...WE WILL HOLD ON NUMEROUS SHWR
CVRG OVR THESE AREAS FOR NOW. BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS ACROSS THE N
OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME LCTNS TO WARM
UP...WHILE MSLY UNINTERRUPTED HTG HAS OCCURRED UP TO MIDDAY OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE FA WITH PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES.
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN WERE AGAIN UPDATED BASED ON 11AM-
NOON OBS...WITH SOME LCTNS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING FCST HI TEMPS OVR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE MAY ISSUE
ONE MORE FCST UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN BEFORE THE FCST PCKG BEGINNING
WITH THE NGT PD LATER THIS AFTN.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MIDMORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY.
AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7
DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS
THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND
LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK
THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH
THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH
12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3
INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A
RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED TO DECREASE BY AROUND MID DAY. CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL TSRA MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CHANCES AT KLNK AND
KOMA ARE BEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY AT KOFK AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BEFORE 12Z. WIND SHIFT AT KOMA AND KLNK WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER 14Z AND DID NOT INCLUDE THAT FOR NOW SINCE TAFS
WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LONG.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AIDE IN KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY IF NOT OVER THE
TAF SITE BY MID MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.
MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVITY FIRING UP LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WILL TURN TO NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. VSBYS FROM A
DIRECT HIT AT ANY TERMINAL COULD FALL TO BTWN 2 AND 3SM. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE A DRIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS. FAVORED
AREAS TODAY WILL BE FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ/KAEG AND KLVS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER PERSISTING ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KGUP TO KABQ/KSAF AND KLVS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE
A WIND SHIFT MOVING SW OVER EASTERN NM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 92 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 54 86 53 79 / 30 30 50 50
CUBA............................ 55 84 53 78 / 60 50 70 40
GALLUP.......................... 56 85 54 86 / 30 30 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 54 83 52 83 / 50 40 60 30
GRANTS.......................... 57 84 54 85 / 40 40 50 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 84 57 83 / 40 30 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 57 87 55 89 / 40 30 20 20
CHAMA........................... 51 78 51 74 / 30 60 70 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 82 57 75 / 70 70 70 60
PECOS........................... 57 80 55 73 / 40 70 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 77 52 71 / 50 70 60 70
RED RIVER....................... 47 67 47 63 / 50 70 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 67 51 63 / 40 70 70 70
TAOS............................ 54 80 52 75 / 30 40 50 40
MORA............................ 54 75 51 69 / 50 70 70 70
ESPANOLA........................ 59 87 56 79 / 50 30 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 59 82 58 76 / 50 50 70 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 84 58 80 / 40 30 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 86 64 83 / 60 30 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 88 65 85 / 60 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 90 63 87 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 89 65 86 / 50 30 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 90 63 86 / 50 30 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 88 64 86 / 50 30 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 66 91 65 89 / 40 20 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 83 56 78 / 70 40 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 59 85 55 79 / 70 40 70 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 84 53 79 / 50 30 60 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 80 54 74 / 30 40 70 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 83 57 79 / 50 30 70 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 87 62 85 / 40 20 60 30
RUIDOSO......................... 58 81 55 75 / 50 50 70 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 75 53 73 / 40 70 60 20
RATON........................... 59 78 54 74 / 30 70 60 30
SPRINGER........................ 60 80 55 75 / 30 70 60 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 77 52 71 / 30 70 60 40
CLAYTON......................... 65 80 57 77 / 20 60 50 20
ROY............................. 62 78 57 75 / 30 70 60 20
CONCHAS......................... 66 85 62 79 / 20 70 60 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 88 61 79 / 30 50 60 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 90 62 82 / 20 50 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 67 88 62 79 / 10 40 60 30
PORTALES........................ 68 90 64 80 / 10 30 70 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 93 64 81 / 20 30 60 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 94 68 86 / 20 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 63 88 63 81 / 30 50 50 30
ELK............................. 61 84 62 77 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505>509-518>522-524>526.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHERWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
AFT MID AFTERNOON FROM DVL INTO GFK...AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GFK INTO VWU. AREAS SOPUTH OF HWY 200 WILL SEE
SCATTERED MVFR CONDS IN TUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY EVENING FROM FAR-BWP LINE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
POST FRONTAL DRYING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
138 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO PULL THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE WATCH OUT. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SMALL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THINK THAT CELLS GOING
UP IN THAT AREA WILL BE SUB SEVERE AND SHORT LIVED. KEPT CASS
COUNTY AND MN COUNTIES STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POLK COUNTY MADE
IT COMPLICATED AS CROOKSTON IS WELL IN THE COOL AIR AND FOSSTON IS
STILL OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. KEPT THE WEIRD SHAPED COUNTIES
IN JUST FOR EASE AND WILL PULL THEM OUT IN THE NEXT UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE STARTED TO LOSE THEIR
PUNCH AS THEY HAVE MOVED EAST. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
GFK AND VALLEY CITY...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DESTABILIZING NICELY. THE HRRR HAS SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 19-21Z AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS REDEVELOPING
MOSTLY OVER OUR SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
CWA ARE STARTING TO PUT OUT SOME WIND...AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
AFT MID AFTERNOON FROM DVL INTO GFK...AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GFK INTO VWU. AREAS SOPUTH OF HWY 200 WILL SEE
SCATTERED MVFR CONDS IN TUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY EVENING FROM FAR-BWP LINE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
POST FRONTAL DRYING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE STARTED TO LOSE THEIR
PUNCH AS THEY HAVE MOVED EAST. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
GFK AND VALLEY CITY...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DESTABILIZING NICELY. THE HRRR HAS SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 19-21Z AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS REDEVELOPING
MOSTLY OVER OUR SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
CWA ARE STARTING TO PUT OUT SOME WIND...AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
AFT MID AFTERNOON FROM DVL INTO GFK...AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GFK INTO VWU. AREAS SOPUTH OF HWY 200 WILL SEE
SCATTERED MVFR CONDS IN TUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY EVENING FROM FAR-BWP LINE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
POST FRONTAL DRYING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH
IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DROPPING THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTH OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR NORTH OF A MADRAS-SPRAY-LA GRANDE
LINE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVE WILD FIRES IN
PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECT SOME PATCHY SMOKE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE DAY ON MONDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN
250-500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -2 PRESENTLY. THE LATEST
19Z HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL DESCHUTES COUNTY BETWEEN NOW AND
00Z THIS EVENING...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH
AND OUT OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 04 TO 07Z THIS EVENING. THIS FITS WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND RATHER
QUIET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO MID-
50S MOUNTAINS. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS LINGERS
OVER THIS AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
OREGON AND ESPECIALLY DESCHUTES COUNTY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 611 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION). HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST...SWITCHING
THE FLOW TO NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 98-103 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS IS ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 77
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY
FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS
THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MUCH
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ML
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON BORDER THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ML
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MIGRATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN CHALLENGING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN FAR SE DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 60 PERCENT THAT
STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH 10+ STRIKES IN THE DESCHUTES
NATIONAL FOREST ON MONDAY...AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA (FIRE ZONE
611). THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THE SISTERS RANGER
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH LAL 3 IS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL AS THE TRACK
OF THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA TURNS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE LOW OPENS
AND DEVELOPS A BROAD TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 68 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 65 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 64 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 62 99 65 99 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 57 94 58 95 / 0 10 10 10
LGD 56 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 56 95 58 98 / 0 10 10 10
DLS 68 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ611.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/93/93/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL BURNED
OFF. THE CU FIELD FROM SRN PA SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO GROW IN AN
AREA OF MODEST CAPE AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE CREEPING SOME SHOWERS
UP INTO THE LAURELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TN VALLEY
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS SOME 10 WARMER THAN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 5 DEG MILDER
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-35 KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH FOR
JULY REGISTERS AS SOME 1-3 STD DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF
AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS
GETTING WET DURING THE DAY. QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE
SEEMS REASONABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE
AIRSPACE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT
NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRO...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL BURNED
OFF. THE CU FIELD FROM SRN PA SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO GROW IN AN
AREA OF MODEST CAPE AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE CREEPING SOME SHOWERS
UP INTO THE LAURELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TN VALLEY
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS SOME 10 WARMER THAN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 5 DEG MILDER
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-35 KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH FOR
JULY REGISTERS AS SOME 1-3 STD DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF
AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS
GETTING WET DURING THE DAY. QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE
SEEMS REASONABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE
AIRSPACE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT
NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRO...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THE LARGEST WAS A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. WILL RAISE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF I-77 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAS A LINEAR BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE UPSTATE. WILL RAISE TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG
THE I-26 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MTNS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCT FOR AREAS OF RAIN COOLED
AIR. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
WORK OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% HIGH 90% MED 64% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 57% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% HIGH 81% MED 63% MED 79%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 86%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 5.5 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM WITH
THE IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT EVEN AFTER
ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 00Z. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING MORE INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF
THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.
BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% HIGH 81% MED 63% MED 79%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 86%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.
MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...ESPECIALLY KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WHERE SOLAR HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. DAN IS THE TAF SITE WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE
HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT 4-7KTS TONIGHT. THEN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB