Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE EVENING. EVENING PSR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE BUT
ALSO CONSIDERABLE CIN. HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THAT
CONTINUING WITH WESTWARD DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL PARE BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ZONE 24 AND POSSIBLY A
THIN STRIP NEAR MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO
IMPROVE A LOT. THUS ANTICIAPTE LOW GRADE CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM MST/PDT...
CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.
BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY GET AS CLOSE AS THE
MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THEM TO BE ONLY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ANTICIPATE VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA
WITHIN THOSE COUNTIES BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...MUGGY DAY FOR OUR AREA
TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S WHILE THE
KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME IN AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. AS
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN
MANY SPOTS THANK TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...A FEW SPOTS IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY ARE RUNNING NEARLY 15 DEGREES LESS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. FIRST FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES THE NEXT 8 HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT KMUX RADAR HAS
JUST LIGHT RETURNS INDICATED FOR SAN BENTIO AND SE MONTEREY COUNTY
AND IN MOST CASES THAT IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY HAD BEEN SHOWING THE FOCUS SWITCHING MORE TO THE
NORTH BAY BY THE EVENING. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH THE 20Z VERSION NOW KEEPING IT ALMOST ENTIRELY
DRY. WILL JUST KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS GOING IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD END BY SUNSET AND NOT BE IN OUR CWA FOR FRIDAY AS THE
FOCUS SHIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE CONTINUED COOLING
AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS PLUS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE.
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM
60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THESE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL TERMINALS HAVE NOW
GONE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WOULD FAVOR NORTH AND EAST
BAY AFTER 0Z. CIGS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT AT OR UNDER 010
FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.
CIGS POSSIBLY UNDER 010 BY 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR THROUGH 02Z WITH A PASSING
SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS LOWERING AFTER THAT POINT POTENTIALLY
TO 003 AFTER 05Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: CW/BELL
MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
852 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
PRETTY QUIET EVENING THUS FAR. EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH PARK
AND THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 HAS
SETTLED DOWN. THERE WAS ONE OTHER SEVERE STORM THAT CLIPPED
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY AS WELL. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
BOUNDARIES RUNNING AROUND WHICH MAY BE ABLE GET SOMETHING GOING
ALTHOUGH CIN IS INCREASING NICELY AT THIS TIME. RAP ANALYSES
SHOWED SOME PRETTY HEFTY QG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE HELPED SQUELCH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CAPE VALUES.
SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LESS SUBSIDENCE...LESS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IN GENERAL LESS CAPE. THE UPPER FOOTHILLS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE PREDICTED TO HAVE THE MOST CAPE WITH THE
URBAN CORRIDOR THE MOST STABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AT 14Z...THE RUC SHOWED A 60+KT JET MAX OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. THE GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN BY 00Z WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN DENVER...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. I THINK THE NAM IS TOO HIGH AND THE GFS
AND RUC ARE TOO LOW. THEREFORE...I WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. THE GFS...NAM AND ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO SHIFT INTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
AROUND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT
COUNTIES...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WITH PW`S AROUND AN INCH...WE COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE GOOD MOVEMENT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER...THEREFORE THE
FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS TO BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM PARK COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO SUNDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE STORM ACTIVITY.
COOLER AND STILL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY LOW LEVELS WILL BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER THE
COOLER AIR AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER. MAIN THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH STILL SOME CHANCE ON THE PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. STORMS COULD BE SLOWER MOVING ON THIS DAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ALOFT AND UPSLOPE...INTERFACE BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL AIR AND
THE WARMER MOUNTAIN AIR...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE...WOULD
BE THE LIKELY TROUBLE SPOT BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO COOL TO CREATE STRONG STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR
SITUATION BUT LESS OF ALL OF THAT AS THE AIRMASS STARTS TO WARM
AND DRY A BIT AND THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FLOW ALOFT.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN. SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DRY WSW
FLOW. THERE COULD BE A SWEET SPOT WHERE IT IS WARM ENOUGH BUT
STILL MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN ACTIVE DAY...MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME THREAT OF STORMS AFTER THAT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT THE WARMTH ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAP IT...WILL GO FOR A
PRETTY LOW KEY CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 834 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT KAPA AND KDEN WITH KBJC
STARTING TO TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE. KAPA AND KDEN SHOULD BEGIN
THEIR NOCTURNAL WINDS BY AROUND 06Z. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF
CONVECTION YET THIS EVENING. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ET
HYDROLOGY...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RAP MODEL INDICATE THAT A GUST FRONT WILL
FORM OFF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD WESTWARD...REACHING
THE SRN PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND...BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS THE DAY
EVOLVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.
NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.
ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.
TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.
WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE
WINDS ABOVE 500MB.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SITUATION OVER OR
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...STILL ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.
LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE SUGGESTS AN EVENING SEA-BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS
POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
LIKELY POP NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 20Z.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... MID TERM PERIOD
BEGINS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WARM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S...HIGHEST TEMPS INLAND. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 90S IF
CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING THAT HIGH. SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED SO POPS IN THE 40/50 RANGE SHOULD
SUFFICE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH WARM TEMPS AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE HEAT
INDICIES WILL RUN IN THE 100-105 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
4TH SO ANYONE PLANNING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID ANY HEAT-RELATED CONDITIONS.
AS WE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH AFTN POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40/50 RANGE.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED-THU) WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION BUT WONT BITE OFF ON THIS TOO
MUCH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS SO OVERALL POP FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE EVOLVED EAST OF KTPA/KPIE...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THESE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLAL/KSRQ...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS DIMINISH BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 93 / 20 40 30 40
FMY 75 94 76 93 / 70 60 30 40
GIF 75 95 76 94 / 60 60 40 50
SRQ 77 91 77 92 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 72 94 72 94 / 20 30 30 40
SPG 80 92 80 92 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA/GUSACK
MCKAUGHAN...LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...
.NEAR TERM...THRU FRIDAY...
GREATER COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOLLOWING THE HRRR FAIRLY WELL. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...AND LATEST HRRR...POINT TO TWO LARGE PRECIP AREAS THRU THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST IS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF NE FL FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...EXPECT THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY/
CATEGORICAL POPS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING FROM FL
PANHANDLE UP TO SE AL...ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR SE GA FORECAST AREA...AND I-10 CORRIDOR OF
NE FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. HAVE 2ND LIKELY POPS REGION HERE 20Z-00Z. THE SECOND AREA HAS NOT
BEEN AFFECTED BY FIRST PRECIP AREA FURTHER S...SO SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE
TO SUPPORT T-STORMS THRU 00Z. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING EXPECTED WITH STORMS JAX-OCF-SGF AREAS WITH
FIRST PRECIP AREA AND I-10 CORRIDOR INTO SRN GA WITH 2ND PRECIP
AREA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LOW TEMPS GENERALLY LWR 70S INLAND...MID 70S COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECM ALL POINT TO CONSIDERABLY LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING WELL
N OF FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH JUST 20 POPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT 30 POP
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LWR-MID 90S
EXPECTED.
.SHORT TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS SAT AS STACKED RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. EVENING PRECIP FRI WILL FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
LOWS COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. SAT AFTN BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY S OF I-10 IN NE FL WHERE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ENERGY LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL GOMEX. ADVERTISED AFTN
RAIN CHANCES OF NEAR 40-50% FROM GNV-PALATKA SOUTHWARD TO ONLY
20-30% ACROSS SE GA WHERE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN WITH 50-60% COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
SUN AFTERNOON AS BOTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE
OVER SE GA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...
MON-TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH MEAN LAYER
TROUGH CARVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD UNDER MOIST
SW STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGIME FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OF NEAR 50% WITH ACTIVITY PRESSING
INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE MORNING THEN
BLOSSOMING ACROSS SE GA/EASTERN NE FL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AREA WHERE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...TO THE LOWER 90S TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
WED-THU...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE 00Z ECMWF ADVERTISED A TUTT
FORMING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS WHILE THE 12Z GFS HOLDS DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL AXIS DOWN
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH
THE BAHAMAS TUTT NOT UNTIL LATE FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
BRING DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS AS THE TUTT RETROGRADES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA WED...THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THU. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE MORE TAME GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT
THIS TIME OPTED TO TREND BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS TOWARD CLIMO
VALUES WITH AROUND 40% RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S/MINS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE TEMPO FOR GUSTY TSRA CONDITIONS THRU 23Z WITH
VCTS CONTINUING THRU ABOUT 01Z. TWO PRIMARY TSRA THREATS TO TAF
SITES...FIRST CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM W OF KJAX TO E OF KGNV WHICH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE AFTERNOON. 2ND AREA IS OVER
TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AND
COULD AFFECT KSSI/KJAX/KVQQ/KCRG SITES 21Z-00Z. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF TSRA THREAT TOWARD 00Z INCREASES FOR THESE SITES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LESSER TSRA COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FRI...AND HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION IN LATEST TAFS FOR FRI
THRU 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH EVENING AND
NOCTURNAL SURGES FROM THE SW OF 15-20 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.
COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 5-6 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE AT NIGHT WITH THE SURGES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND FRI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI AND SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 93 73 94 / 60 20 20 30
SSI 73 90 76 90 / 60 10 20 20
JAX 73 93 74 94 / 60 20 20 30
SGJ 73 91 75 90 / 40 20 20 30
GNV 71 93 73 94 / 20 20 20 40
OCF 72 93 74 93 / 20 30 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/WOLF/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST
VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY
DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF
MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH.
THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST
STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN
INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF
YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH
IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND
THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE
VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL
LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.
LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A
HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM
SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S.
STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH
THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND
KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 93 78 90 78 / 40 10 40 20
FMY 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 20
GIF 94 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 40
SRQ 92 76 89 77 / 30 10 30 20
BKV 93 72 90 72 / 40 10 40 30
SPG 92 80 89 80 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
118 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS TODAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 18Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO KAPF
TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND ONCE THE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAL CONTINUES ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH FL.
NAAPS SHOWS CONTINUED SAL TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON FRI
BEFORE ANOTHER SAL MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND STRENGTHENS
ESPECIALLY BY JULY 6TH. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE SAL IS ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...SO STRONG PULSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS HAZY, HOT, HUMID AIRMASS. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
AVIATION...
-TSRA WILL PREVAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KAPF BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONVECTION ON THU
AGAIN WILL FOCUS INTERIOR AND TOWARDS GULF COAST, SO ADDED VCTS
FOT THE AFTERNOON FOR KAPF BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ESE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST BY
MID MORNING THU...BUT WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF.
/GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.
ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 80 91 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 79 91 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 92 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
412 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO NEWBERRY COUNTY.
THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA UNTIL
9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET. THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG PULSE STORMS AND BOW ECHOES ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL ORGANIZED
AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES
INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES LOCALLY.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.
SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE
OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
FOR SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085.
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
FOR GAC033-073-181-189-245.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.
SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE
OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.
SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTIY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING AROUND 22Z AT AGS AND
DNL...AND 00Z AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB. STILL DID NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH
TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING AROUND 22Z AT AGS AND
DNL...AND 00Z AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB. STILL DID NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH
TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST
OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET. DID
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE
OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
853 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART. THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN. AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH. MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOPING IN THE GCK AREA AT 09Z. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THESE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS TO STAY IN THE GCK AREAS
THROUGH 15Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH DDC FROM
THE WEST. BASED ON 06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS VFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH CEILING ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS RANGING
FROM 3000 TO 6000FT AGL. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT HAYS WHERE
EARLY THIS MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EAST WINDS ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 66 88 65 / 50 40 20 20
GCK 85 64 88 64 / 50 40 20 20
EHA 90 65 87 65 / 40 30 40 40
LBL 90 66 87 66 / 50 30 30 30
HYS 82 64 88 63 / 50 40 20 20
P28 88 68 89 67 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.
FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MONITORING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE NOTICED SOME DISCREPANCIES IN MODELS INITIALIZING
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS HAVING SOME IMPACT ON CEILING
HEIGHTS...HOWEVER BELIEVE AT LEAST MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IS
LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLOWER TREND IN TSRA FROM GUIDANCE LEAD TO
REMOVING VCTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
909 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ON THE SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT SPANED ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ARCHED
SOUTHWEST THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 00Z SATURDAY (7
PM CDT).
THE PERSISTENT CELL ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY...AND BERNIE AND HARVIELL...SOUTH OF POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI...ARE OCCURRING ALONG SHARP THERMAL GRADIENTS
ALOFT. THIS IS MAINTAIN GOOD UPDRAFTS AND SOME BACK BUILDING OVER
THESE AREAS. TRENDS FROM THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME AFTER 04Z.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12-13KFT ABOVE THE AVERAGE FREEZING LEVEL OF
12.5KFT AGL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODERATE LIFT WITH SLOW
PROPAGATION SPEEDS HAVE MADE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...SOME AREAS SAW MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PENNYRILE REGION
OF WEST KENTUCKY...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY CUTOFF FURTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABLIZE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
576DM LOW OVER NW INDIANA WAS SEEN ON WVAPOR/MODEL OVERLAY WITH
A LOBE EXTENDING SW ACROSS MO/IL...HELPING TO TRIGGER HEAT OF THE
DAY CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE
TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION SRN SECTIONS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM WAS THROWN OUT FOR SAT NIGHT AS
IT SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH A WEAK SRN H5 LOW...AND HOLDING MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR SE COUNTIES. SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. AGAIN JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF
CONVECTION S/SE COUNTIES SUNDAY WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER.
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
USED A BLEND OF THE EC/GFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
GEFS/ECENS/NAEFS BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY MORNING PERHAPS AS WELL...WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE WITH TIME. SIGNAL FOR DECENT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AND QPF SEEMS TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT HAVING TO DEAL WITH HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN.
TIMING MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED ALONG WITH THE WINDOW OF BEST
OPPORTUNITY. AFTER THAT...THE ECENS LOOKED MORE LIKE THE GEFS AND
EVEN OPERATIONAL GFS...KEEPING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. POPS MUCH LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND FORECAST LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY 03Z. KCGI AND KOWB HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING TS AT THE TERMINAL. WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...SMITH
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STORMY TAF PERIOD OVERALL. THIS
AFTERNOON MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES ARE SEEING LIFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SITES...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM THE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF
THIS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID KEEP TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT VCTS/VCSH AT THIS POINT. ALSO SEEM REASONABLE THAT
FOG AND LOWER CEILING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
WITH STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
LONG TERM WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STORMY TAF PERIOD OVERALL. THIS
AFTERNOON MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES ARE SEEING LIFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SITES...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM THE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF
THIS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID KEEP TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT VCTS/VCSH AT THIS POINT. ALSO SEEM REASONABLE THAT
FOG AND LOWER CEILING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
WITH STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL STILL BE A WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE EFFECTS CLEAR OUT IN
PLACES LIKE SOMERSET. THE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR SUCH STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MORE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
WFO LMK...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE WX ONES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE FFA AND ZFP/HWO UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER STORMS AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH TRAINING AND HIGH PWATS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO DAMPEN THE START OF THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
MODE OF CONVECTION IN THIS SITUATION IT IS HARD TO BITE TOO HARD
ON ONE SOLUTION SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THIS SCENARIO A BIT IN THE
GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP PRETTY WELL
WITH THE NEIGHBORS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG TO THE GRIDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE
LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO
HIGHLIGHTING THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE...OVER TO STANTON. ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS KEEPING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WEAK COMPARED
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND WILL BE EXITING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS WE MAY
SEE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIE
OFF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL TURN
UPSTREAM TO SEE WHAT CONVECTION FIRES OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND
EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS. MODELS REMAIN VARIABLE ON TRACK OF MCS
TONIGHT. GOING TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE
VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHT
WILL EVOLVE. ANY MCS WOULD LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER VERY UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF
RAIN GOING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
HWO. PW`S ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. THUS...IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING STORMS...THEN A BETTER
FLOODING THREAT MAY BE REALIZED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL
SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VERY IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER AGREE WITH A
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE
PERIOD THAT WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE FRONT AND OVERALL PATTERN
CHANGE STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
WHILE MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS JUST MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN...AND SHOULD
BEGIN IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED TO UPDATE TAF IF ANY ONE LOCATION IS
EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE LOW
CLOUD COVER /GENERALLY IFR/...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT FOG IS
STILL POPPING UP AT TAF SITES AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY...THE VIS
WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT UNDER A TRUE PATCHY
DENSE FOG ENVIRONMENT...SO TRIED TO GEAR TAF TOWARD WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VIS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
ANY PASSING STORMS...BUT GENERAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LIE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO FOG ONCE MORE...DESPITE LINGERING LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT AROUND
5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY...AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-114>118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY STARTING TO
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
REMNANTS OF MCV WERE ACROSS NE AR ATTM BUT ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOWS
UP WELL ON VIS SATELLITE THIS MORNING ACROSS S OK INTO CENTRAL AR.
CU FIELD DEVELOPING QUICKLY NOW FROM SE TX INTO SW LA MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
FOR THE 24HR TAF PACKAGE...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AS BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST ANY
ACTIVITY WORTHY OF AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES. TONIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS TO THE TXK
TERMINAL BEGINNING AT 06Z AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK/CENTRAL AR...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE TXK
TERMINAL. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE TUE MORNING
AT OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS WILL BE
FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 12Z TUE AS
WELL AS A WEST TO EAST SHEAR AXIS SETS UP NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUE. OUTFLOW COULD SEND THIS CONVECTION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT THIS WOULD
BE AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THUS HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY APPROACHING 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS TODAY WITH WEAKER GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
THESE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SOUTH
OF I-30 BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK. THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM RISING TOO
QUICKLY SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT RAPID WARMING ONCE WE START
TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FCST. SHWRS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS SRN OK/CNTRL AR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES BEYOND 18Z.
GOING FCST LOOKS LARGELY ON TRACK SO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. /09/
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 75 91 75 / 10 10 20 30
MLU 92 74 92 75 / 10 20 20 30
DEQ 89 74 83 70 / 20 50 60 60
TXK 92 75 87 73 / 20 30 50 40
ELD 92 75 88 73 / 20 30 40 40
TYR 91 75 91 74 / 10 10 20 20
GGG 93 75 91 75 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 93 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
828 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ISOLD TSRA NEAR IWD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FCST PERIODS WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SAW AND IWD BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA FRI EVENING...WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM EVEN IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE KINEMATICS WILL BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORM WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OF ONLY 25-30KT AT 500MB. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR INSOLATION DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
WEAK N-NE FLOW...HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EVENING FOR
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY...AND IT MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
TEMPS IN THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +17C. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
MINIMAL SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA BEING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE FROPA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE MONDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...THERE WILL BE
LIKELY AMPLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY ANOTHER
COOL DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND +6C
WITH N-NE WINDS. MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO LAST TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH RISES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KSAW
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF THROUGH 18Z
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRI THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS IS REPLACED
BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. NAM
HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA ON FRI
WHICH REMAINS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING...SO HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FRI AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD LAST
INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DID CONTINUE DRY FOR THE 4TH AS DIEING COLD FRONT IS OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THEN.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON MON. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MON AND LINGERS INTO WED
AS IT BROADENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE SFC COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVING
LIKELY POPS FOR THEN CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXTENDED PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI...FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA MOVING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS SHOW NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SE FM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS INDICATE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO WELL AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH
OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
PASSAGE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON
FCST DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS ECMWF AND GEM-NH INDICATE MLCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE THE NAM SHOWS INLAND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITHOUT REALLY A
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION...SUSPECT NAM AND GFS SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ARE OVERDONE THUS LEADING TO INFLATED
INSTABILITY VALUES. GIVEN PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO TRUST LOWER GEM-NH
AND ECMWF VALUES MORE. NEVERTHELESS WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF
SCENARIOS...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING ESEPCIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOWER CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING FRI EVENING CONVECTION
ENDS WITH EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS MODELS
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS. LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MININAL AND
CONFINED TO WI BORDER COUNTIES IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL AS MID-LVLS OFF
FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY 500-1000 J/KG BUT THAT`S ONLY BECAUSE FCST DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AGAIN THESE DEWPOINTS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN
PATTERN WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MID-LVL RDGG AND LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA AS DEPICTED BY MODELS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FCST PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POP FCST. MOST OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST LATE MON EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SO EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO END
BY THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FM THE PLAINS. SOME OF MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTED ANY PCPN. TUESDAY COULD BE CHILLY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND PASSAGE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH (WITH TEMPS 6-8C)
EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
RETURN SSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RDG BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
Tonight:
Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.
Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.
Thursday - Friday:
The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.
4th of July Weekend:
Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.
Monday - Wednesday:
The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
Combination of VFR and MVFR conditions currently prevail across the
terminals along the Kansas-Missouri state line is expect to persist
through the next 24 hours with a steady east wind. Might have issues
around sunrise with surface fog thanks to the rain overnight.
Otherwise, there is still a small chance for storms at the terminals,
but the chance is sufficiently small to not warrant including in the
TAF at this time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ030>033-
038>040-044>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A STALLED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY IS SEPARATING LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CU DEVELOPING...ALBEIT LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
TO THE CU AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE RECOGNIZING THE
BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING QPF ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES WHICH SO FAR HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. BELIEF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS NOT THERE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THE CU...THUS
LITTLE/LIMITED POPS EARLY ON TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD SUFFICE TO GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING/MCS. MODELS FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEB...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD SEE EVERYONE GET WET AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR ALL.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHED BY THE FIRST WAVE. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BACK SIDE OF DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT WRN
NEBR...AS THE MAIN SFC FRONT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN OKLA.
RETAINED 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS NW FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
SERLY WINDS TO THE REGION.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN PRESENT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT POPS
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING POPS SOME
ACROSS NRN NEBR PER THE GFS OUTPUT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE INCREASED TO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY. LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS OR TWO
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS WRN NEBR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL MONDAY ACROSS
CNTRL KS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BROAD AND BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO SYNOPTIC
SETUP...WITH MODELS FAVORING MOST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WARMER FROM 85 TO 90 THIS WEEKEND LOWER
SLIGHTLY TO 77 TO 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS IS LOW TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLACK HILLS
OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS...A BROAD AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM NWRN NEBRASKA INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS...THEN IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS
3SM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS ARE VERY DIVERGENT IN HOW CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
IMPACT THE PCPN THREAT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE LAST 12 HRS
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL...SO DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCTS MENTION ATTM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
956 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&
.UPDATE...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE SO CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO MUCH OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA THAT HAS COME IN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.
OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.
I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
645 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&
.UPDATE...THE POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BRING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
EXPANDING A LITTLE MORE FROM NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY TO ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.
OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.
I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.
OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.
I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z TODAY. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AS
WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA. THINGS SHOULD
STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE VALLEY. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
953 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY LEADING TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS LINCOLN, NORTHERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WE HAVE SEEN THINGS QUIET DOWN AS OF WRITING
ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY WHILE ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO GO AGAIN OVER
INYO AND VERY FAR NW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THINGS SHOULD WORK IN
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE ACTIVITY IN CLARK COUNTY
WORKS THAT WAY.
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LACK OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IN MUCH OF
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES, POPS WERE REMOVED FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT IN THIS AREA AS MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THINGS
REMAINING STABLE. FURTHER NORTH, BOTH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL WRF AND
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE INYO COUNTY SHOULD SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND GIVEN THE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS, I RAISED POPS HERE. FURTHER
EAST, I LEFT THE REST OF THE POPS AS IS AS ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO NW
AZ LATER ON TONIGHT THAT MAY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT AS IT HEADS WEST.
WHILE LAS VEGAS SHOULD STAY QUIET THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM, IT IS POSSIBLE
IF THINGS GET MORE ACTIVE IN NW AZ THAT WE MAY SEE SOME LATE-NIGHT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY FROM THE EAST. WITH
THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT+ 250 MB JET PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND HEADING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE WE HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE THEM AND BRING
THEM IN-LINE WITH SURFACE OBS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10-12 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LATE-NIGHT SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. CIGS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET
WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PDT WED JUL 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES. A
FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR AN INCH ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. A
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
LEADING TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MOST
AREAS. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR MAY BE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE WAVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES APPROACHING FRIDAY BUT THE MODELS
KEEP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT BASICALLY
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. SO I WENT WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ESMERALDA COUNTY WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK AND
PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OVER THOSE ZONES.
AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND FROM
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON....AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
WITH STORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
LOWERING TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.
SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINAGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.
00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.
00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.
&&
$$
42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
SINCE THE INITIAL PUSH OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN US 83 AND THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN JUST EAST OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTENING
SUGGESTS THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE PRESENT. REPORTS THUS FAR
HAVE NOT INDICATED ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR FLOODING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ALL LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT EACH THUNDERSTORM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE 12 UTC WRF
ARW/WRF NMM AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS THAT
CONVECTION WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE BY 02 UTC THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACTIVITY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...HAZE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WERE NOTED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EMMONS AND KIDDER COUNTIES JUST WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
TRIMMED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO INCLUDE WHERE RADAR IS INDICATING
ACTIVITY...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW WELL. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE RESIDING ALONG AN
AXIS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AS
STORMS PUSH EAST...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BEHIND THEM
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT
THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE
DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY START
TO DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP WITH
SOME ENERGY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S. MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS BEST
FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH
THE FROPA...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER VERSUS THE EC/GEM/NAM. LEANED ON
THE MAJORITY HERE DISCOUNTING THE 00Z GFS. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR BETTER FORCING ALOFT. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH THE NAM SUGGESTS AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE SFC TROUGH PLACEMENT. BEST WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACED FROM BEST
MUCAPE...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MUCAPE AXIS ACROSS MY
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CH.
POP FOR NOW FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WHEN AND WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH
NEAR THE STRONGEST CAA. SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK BUT
VERY UN-JULY LIKE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S) WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY PREVENTING RIDGING FROM REBUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES UNTIL MAYBE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE TWO MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIS/KJMS. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SMOKE BY 00Z SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
KBIS/KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACTIVITY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...HAZE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WERE NOTED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EMMONS AND KIDDER COUNTIES JUST WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
TRIMMED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO INCLUDE WHERE RADAR IS INDICATING
ACTIVITY...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW WELL. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE RESIDING ALONG AN
AXIS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AS
STORMS PUSH EAST...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BEHIND THEM
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT
THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE
DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY START
TO DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP WITH
SOME ENERGY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S. MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS BEST
FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH
THE FROPA...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER VERSUS THE EC/GEM/NAM. LEANED ON
THE MAJORITY HERE DISCOUNTING THE 00Z GFS. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR BETTER FORCING ALOFT. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH THE NAM SUGGESTS AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE SFC TROUGH PLACEMENT. BEST WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACED FROM BEST
MUCAPE...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MUCAPE AXIS ACROSS MY
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CH.
POP FOR NOW FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WHEN AND WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH
NEAR THE STRONGEST CAA. SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK BUT
VERY UN-JULY LIKE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S) WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY PREVENTING RIDGING FROM REBUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES UNTIL MAYBE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM WELLS COUNTY...SOUTHWEST
TO SIOUX COUNTY. PATCHY FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KMOT AND KDIK...WITH
VSBYS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KJMS MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY
AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH IN THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TENN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VARIETY OF SKY COVER EXISTS THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KCAK
AND KYNG THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A LITTLE PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BUT
SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT VFR WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT
AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS INLAND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT KCLE
AND KERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.
LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 71 88 70 / 40 70 40 50
HOBART OK 91 71 93 70 / 40 50 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 75 91 73 / 20 30 50 50
GAGE OK 89 66 89 67 / 50 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 92 70 89 68 / 40 30 30 30
DURANT OK 92 73 87 72 / 30 50 70 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.
LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 71 88 70 / 40 70 40 50
HOBART OK 91 71 93 70 / 40 50 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 75 91 73 / 20 30 50 50
GAGE OK 89 66 89 67 / 50 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 92 70 89 68 / 40 30 30 30
DURANT OK 92 73 87 72 / 30 50 70 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALELY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE
THIS MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE
LOWER PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.
GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.
GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR RESULTING IN VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED OVER
NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM
THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.
GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
515 PM EDT UPDDATE...MOST SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN. MADE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS...NEGATIVE RADAR TRENDS...AND SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR TO KEEP
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO UPDATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO CONSIDERABLE RAIN COOLING IN SOME AREAS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.
AS OF 245 PM EDT...AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WORKING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA HAS
ENCOUNTERED INCREASED INSTABILITY...WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA THIS AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE HIGHER POPS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE MESOCALE MODELS FOR CONVECTION COMING
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS IS
POSSIBLY JUST THE FIRST WAVE OF MANY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
YET MORE VORTICITY LOBES WILL CROSS THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO
THE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY
850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS
THE 850 MB LOW CENTER DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY SOLIDLY WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE
LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ANTICIPATE A
SMALLER THAN USUAL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/DEBRIS...AND WILL NEED TO SHOTGUN HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND MOIST PROFILES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
WITH MIXING AGAIN ON FRI AFTN. HEAVY RAIN WILL POSE A LOCALIZED
HYDRO THREAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT TRAINING OCCURS...WITH THE SW
MTNS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN MTNS BUT RATES WILL BE BETTER IN MORE UNSTABLE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UNSEASONABLY
HIGH PWATS (GENERALLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO) THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE NOCTURNAL
HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE (POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW) NEARS
THE AREA. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL AREAS...
MAINLY FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY
LOCALIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING
ELEVATED... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS...WHERE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP RATES. ANTECEDENT CONDITION WILL PROBABLY
ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z MONDAY WITH THE
AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED POPS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME RELATIVE SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DIURNAL POPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS. ON
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND PWATS CLIMB BACK OVER 2 INCHES.
POPS ARE THEREFORE ABOVE CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND DO
NOT WANE MUCH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SPECTACULAR FOR
ANY DAY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...BUT PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MEAN THAT 7-DAY QPF
TOTALS BEAR WATCHING.
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE...MOIST PROFILES
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
CLIMO. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE EARLY DAY MCS OUTFLOW IS
EXTENDING EAST TOWARD THE KCLT VICINITY THIS AFTN. THE CURRENT TEMPO
TSRA FROM 19Z STILL LOOKS WELL TIMED WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS UNDER ANY HEAVY THUNDER SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LOW END
GUSTS IN BOTH THE GRADIENT FLOW WITH MIXING AND IN ANY TSTMS WITH
LIMITED DCAPE. THE NAM REMAINS MOST BULLISH ON OVERNIGHT MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING...BUT THE MOS REMAINS UNEXCITED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN
THE MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVES...SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPO TSRA WITH 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS LOOKS HIGHLY LIKELY AT
THE UPSTATE SITES ALONG THE OUTFLOW LINE THIS AFTN...WITH PRECIP
GENERALLY MORE SHOWERS FROM KAVL TO KHKY. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME AS WELL.
WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF SPOTTY LOW STRATUS AGAIN FRI MORNING GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS. WILL CONFINE THE OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO KAVL AND
KHKY FOR NOW. EXPECT UPSTATE TAF SITES TO START GUSTING AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS MIXING GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND 850 MB WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 87%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 92%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST AND CROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL...STRONGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM TYS TO N OF CHA ON THE STRENGTH OF A MORNING MCS
OUTFLOW AND ALSO WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE SUPORT IN THE
BROADER SCALE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE DEEP
SOUTH. STEERING FLOW WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE WRN NC
MTNS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES LIKELY IN THE SW MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
SMOKIES. HYDRO CONCERNS WILL THUS STEADILY INCREASE...BUT THIS MAY
JUST PRIMING THE PUMP FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL AWAIT THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL DATA BEFORE DECIDING
ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES SINCE THE RATES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY TAME THUS FAR.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO
OUR NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND WITH LIMITED
SHEAR AND LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT TAME. RAINFALL COULD BE SOMEWHAT ROBUST AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...BUT STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIMIT
ANY UPSLOPE ANCHORING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ONE TO TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS...BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO CLIMO DUE TO MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF FLATTENING OUT WHILE NUMEROUS LOBES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FRI
MORNING AS A COMPLEX SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST...ANOTHER LEE TROF WILL SET UP OVER
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND LINGER WELL INTO SAT. POPS STEADILY RAMP
UP THRU THE DAY/EVENING WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY VALUES
CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED A BIT SINCE YESTERDAYS FCST...HOWEVER A SOLID INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SPC
KEEPS OUR CWFA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING SVR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO SAT...THE SFC
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS IN
ITS WAKE KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SW AND TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU SAT...SO FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. TEMPS START OUT ABOUT 2 TO
4 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON FRI AND WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ENDING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MODELS GENERATE NUMEROUS WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVES THRU THE PERIOD WITH WEAK UPPER WINDS PREVAILING THRU DAY
7. NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE WELL BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING
SOUTH TO SWLY LOW LVL FLOW. THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
WEAK LEE TROFFING ON SUN AND MON AS A SERIES OF SHORT LIVED MESO
LOWS ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WED AND THURS...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DEEPER LYR MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PW
VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON MON AND TUES. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...I KEPT DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR
SUN. TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON SUN AND WARM SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE CLIMO BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY LOWER STRATUS UNDER THE ALTOCUMULUS DECK HAS MANAGED
TO STAY WELL SW OF KCLT THIS MORNING...AND BREAKS GOING FORWARD
SHOULD PERMIT HEATING AND A VFR CUMULUS FIELD UNDER LINGERNIG
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SHRA/TSRA MAKING A
RUN EASTWARD FROM THE BLUE RIDGE MID AFTN SO WILL STAY ON COURSE
WITH TEMPO TSRA STARTING 19Z. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS DUE TO MIXING. GUIDANCE BRINGS MVFR CIGS TOWARD KCLT AT
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW
VFR CIG AT THE FIELD.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF IFR TO LOWER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPED UNDER THE
ALTOCUMULUS DECK THIS MORNING...BUT BREAKS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SOME
HEATING AND SCATTERING. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
TO NEAR KGSP TO KHKY THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BUT WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
BETTER CONVECTION SWEEPING EAST OFF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO PROB OR VCTS EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPO
TSRA AT KAVL AFTER 17Z. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MEAN LOW CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT MODERATE
RAINFALL AT TIMES. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY FROM
THE NW. PREFERRED GUIDANCE KEEPS VSBY VFR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOVES
MVFR CIGS IN WELL BEOFRE DAWN.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 74%
KAVL HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% MED 69%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 65%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 76%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% MED 76%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
126 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRIGGERING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS.
SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TEMPERATURE WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
AS OF 1030 EDT...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY PREVAILS AROUND
THE AREA WITH NO LIGHTNING. DIURNAL COLLAPSE OF CAPE HAS LED TO A
MARKED REDUCTION IN THE PROSPECT FOR LIGHTNING...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.
AS OF 800 EDT...SHOWERS HAVE DECLINED IN MOST AREAS WITH THE ONLY
ACTIVITY STILL PRODUCING LIGHTNING CURRENTLY NEAR ELBERT AND ABBEVILLE
COUNTIES. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND FURTHER LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 2AM
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WHERE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR ARE FORECAST BY HRRR TO CONTINUE AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST SKY AND TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS...AND TO REPRESENT THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AS OF 515 PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE EXTENT
MAY BE LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES DECLINE DIURNALLY AS PRECIP. MOVES
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. HRRR GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG AS IT HAS
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN NOW OBSERVED...BUT THE BASIC TREND
OF ESE MOVEMENT AND DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER 10PM SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER CAMS. LATEST NEAR TERM
POPS REFLECT CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND THROUGH 6Z.
AT 215 PM...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS AT THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT. CAPES
OVER EASTERN TN ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000J SO IT IS MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A WATCH IN PLACE ABUTTING OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO OUR NE GA...WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOME OF OUR NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY <1000J OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE AROUND 60...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR THERE. I HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 23Z AND MOVING EASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NC BORDER COUNTIES AND THEN LIKELY
AS FAR EAST AS I-26. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THU IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/QPF. NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTH GA/SE TN LATE TONIGHT APPARENTLY USING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM TODAY`S MCS AS A TRIGGER. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ENHANCED QPF. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE NAM AND
INCREASE POPS LATE TONIGHT WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HENCE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ON THU. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WIND AND
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEKS...INVERTED-V BELOW H8...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC POPS EAST.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND EARLY ONSET OF
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ON SAT...4TH OF JULY...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE VIRGINAS. BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS
WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATX REGION TO NORTHERN MS/AL BY SUNRISE SAT.
12Z NAM AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE
CONVECTION 12Z SAT. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE CONVECTION
EAST...REACHING THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER WITH 30 TO 40 POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO
THE U80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AMID
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THOUGH A LACK OF DISCERNIBLE UPPER FORCING OVER THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SHOULD KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. POPS WILL THEREFORE
BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER HIGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SAME TIME...THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST IN THE TIMING OF SOME OF THESE
FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOURCES OF WEAK FORCING ABOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THEREFORE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. PROFILES ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AND THOUGH NO DAY STANDS OUT AS HAVING ESPECIALLY HIGH
QPF...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WHOLE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE PERIOD COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LACK OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT TENDENCIES LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS STAYING NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
BACK EDGE IS NOW IN THE NC FOOTHILLS. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED
ABOUT FOG CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...AND WITH THE WIND UP A BIT AND A 7
DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION...FOG IS NOT A SURE THING. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MID LEVEL CIGS UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO THE NORTH LOWERS THE CIG TO LOW
VFR...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWS CONTINUE TO CROSS MOST FOOTHILLS SITES...AND
MAY PERSIST AT KGSP AND KAND FOR SOME HOURS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR
FOG AT KAVL AT DAYBREAK...BUT NOT AT FOOTHILLS SITES. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT FOOTHILL SITES AROUND RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 10
DEGREES...WITH THE LOWEST AT KAND. IF THE WIND CAN STAY UP ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY BE AVOIDED...BUT THE SITUATION WARRANT A CLOSE
WATCH. MID LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY IN
ASSOCIATIONS WITH MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WITH A FRONT TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW IN THE FOOTHILLS..AND NW AT
KAVL...INCREASING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
827 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATING COMPLEX OF STORMS WANING WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASED INTENSITY/COVERAGE. SO THIS
MORNING SHIFTED LIKELY POPS TO WEST OF I-55...AND REDUCED POPS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
DESTABILIZING EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS OF 4
AM CDT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN
SHOWERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE
CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
LEADING STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY STABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PERHAPS AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000-4000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35
KTS...AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DOES RAISE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS ADJUSTED IF NEEDED.
MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MID SOUTH APPEARS TO
BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRESENT A LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT
JBR. OTHERWISE... -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH VFR / ISOLATED
MVFR AT THE OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION / LOCATION OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. HRRR AND NAM MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED STRUGGLED IN HANDLING DAYTIME CONVECTION FOLLOWING
NOCTURNAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM NIGHTTIME RAINS. THAT SAID...
TODAY/S LATE AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES MAY GET A BOOST FROM A SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST KS AT DISCUSSION TIME...1130Z. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...LATE AFTERNOON WOULD COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON
BUMP IN TSRA CHANCES...FOLLOWED BY REDUCED LATE EVENING TSRA CHANCES
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS OF 4
AM CDT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN
SHOWERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE
CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
LEADING STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY STABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PERHAPS AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000-4000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35
KTS...AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DOES RAISE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS ADJUSTED IF NEEDED.
MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MID SOUTH APPEARS TO
BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRESENT A LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT
JBR. OTHERWISE... -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH VFR / ISOLATED
MVFR AT THE OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION / LOCATION OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. HRRR AND NAM MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED STRUGGLED IN HANDLING DAYTIME CONVECTION FOLLOWING
NOCTURNAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM NIGHTTIME RAINS. THAT SAID...
TODAY/S LATE AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES MAY GET A BOOST FROM A SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST KS AT DISCUSSION TIME...1130Z. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...LATE AFTERNOON WOULD COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON
BUMP IN TSRA CHANCES...FOLLOWED BY REDUCED LATE EVENING TSRA CHANCES
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION TO ERUPT FROM TRIAD NC AREA NE TO SOUTHSIDE VA. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THE AIRMASS IS STABLE.
THE 16Z HRRR BLENDED WITH THE RAP/NAM SEEM REASONABLE THRU EARLY
EVENING. THIS SOLUTION TAKES SHOWERS EAST AND OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY
00Z...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE WRN OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ESE INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE DAWN. STARTING TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF BLF BY THAT TIME AND TRACK
THE SHOWERS EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA BY 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING...THOUGH SOME MINOR
TRACK DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWER
SWINGS IN. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT THINKING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM OR FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING SOLAR INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KY/OHIO INTO WV/NRN VA BY AFTERNOON WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN TN. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHO GETS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS AN INCH
OR LESS. SINCE WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF ANY
HEAVIER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS...AND WILL SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING TO THE DIFFICULT FORECAST ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER ACROSS VA/NC
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE UNSURE WHICH SURFACE LOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE
ONE. THE ONE THAT DOES WILL HAVE THE STRONGER STORMS...EITHER ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
OPT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICK AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR OVERALL
COVERAGE...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY. ON SUNDAY...THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW MAY SHIFT EAST AND MERGER WITH THE MID ATLANTIC LOW. THIS
MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
HALF WET WHILE BECOMING RAIN-FREE AND MOST CLOUDY NORTH. WITH RAIN
AND THICK CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE CONVERTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE MODELS...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
WEDGE IN PLAY...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LEWISBURG OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE AGAIN.
EXPECT SHOWERS...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR TSRA IS LIMITED TO JUST SOUTH
OF A LYH TO ROA LINE...SO ONLY HAVE VCTS THERE AND AT BCB...BUT
HAVE TEMPO AT DANVILLE WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CIG SWING TOWARD MVFR OR
WORSE...AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO A LOWER
CIGS SETUP WITH SHOWERS AROUND. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE
BEST CORRIDOR OF SHRA FROM BLF-DAN AND SOUTHWEST...THOUGH EVEN
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY.
LIMITED THUNDER AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS...SETTLING ON
CIGS/VSBYS CATEGORY CHANGES BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS SUB VFR IS HIGH FOR TONIGHT...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER...AS THINK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
IT APPEARS THAT OBSERVATIONS FROM NON-NWS AWOS SITES ARE COMING
BACK IN...BUT NO OFFICIAL WORD ON IF THE ISSUE IS FINALLY FIXED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE HANDLING ORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM WV INTO
NE TN WELL....SO EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO NUDGE EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 2 PM...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 3-4PM.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED. SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ALLOWING FOR SBCAPES TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM OVER THE MTNS TO
BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING INTO LATE TODAY...TRAINING OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL HAS
NOT BEEN HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN TO THE SAME PATTERN WITH A LONG SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN US...AS AN
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER QUITE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERS/STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP THE BULK OF ACTIVITY BIASED
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE HWO AND WAIT TO SEE IF A THREAT AREA REVEALS ITSELF WITH TIME.
AFTER A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND
LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN MILD WITH
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A REMNANT MCS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY AT THE START OF THE DAY FRI...ONE OF TWO POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE REMNANTS OF SUCH TO DRIFT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN TIME OF DAY...THREAT OF SEVERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TOP OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THU. MODEL AND WPC QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE
24-48 HOUR PERIOD ARE MOSTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE...WHICH
SHOULD BE HANDLED WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF COMBINED RAINFALL FROM THU INTO FRI MORNING RATHER THAN
NEW EVENTS FRI MORNING...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST
AND THE BETTER THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
MORNING MCS. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND BROAD
TROUGHING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS EAST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER MCS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE SATURDAY AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO
DRIFT ESE INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE RIDES OVER
THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/PA REGION. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOVED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...AS NOTED YESTERDAY...POPS CANNOT BE REDUCED BEYOND
MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT VALUES ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR
THE REMNANTS OF SUCH WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND WILL
ONLY BE RESOLVED NEAR THE EVENT AND ON THE MESOSCALE...NOT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LEVEL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS/DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF THE LONGSTANDING EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/NORTH NC AND
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ADVERTISES THIS TO
A MUCH GREATER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE TOP OF THIS WEAK CUTOFF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AS THE FAVORABLE MCS PATTERN OF THE CURRENT WEEK FADES GIVEN THE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AN END TO THE STRONG WNW-NW
FLOW ALOFT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...UPPER LOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BEYOND
MON...THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES DEPICT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN LIKELY STALLING
IN/NEAR THE REGION BY WED AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES. THUS...WE ARE LEFT IN A CONTINUAL UNSETTLED
PATTERN. ANY DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MON/TUE
TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN SUCH BY WED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MON/TUE WITH DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HENCE GREATER INSOLATION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT CONTINUE TO BE QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LEWISBURG OBSERVATIONS ARE OUT AGAIN...BUT ATTM...WILL KEEP AMD
NOT SKED OUT OF THE TAFS.
EXPECT SHOWERS...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR TSRA IS LIMITED TO JUST SOUTH
OF A LYH TO ROA LINE...SO ONLY HAVE VCTS THERE AND AT BCB...BUT
HAVE TEMPO AT DANVILLE WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CIG SWING TOWARD MVFR OR
WORSE...AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO A LOWER
CIGS SETUP WITH SHOWERS AROUND. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE
BEST CORRIDOR OF SHRA FROM BLF-DAN AND SOUTHWEST...THOUGH EVEN
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY.
LIMITED THUNDER AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS...SETTLING ON
CIGS/VSBYS CATEGORY CHANGES BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS SUB VFR IS HIGH FOR TONIGHT...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER...AS THINK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AN OUTAGE STILL EXISTS WITH SOME FAA AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS IN
THE AREA. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE HANDLING ORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM WV INTO
NE TN WELL....SO EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO NUDGE EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 2 PM...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 3-4PM.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED. SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ALLOWING FOR SBCAPES TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM OVER THE MTNS TO
BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING INTO LATE TODAY...TRAINING OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL HAS
NOT BEEN HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN TO THE SAME PATTERN WITH A LONG SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN US...AS AN
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER QUITE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERS/STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP THE BULK OF ACTIVITY BIASED
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE HWO AND WAIT TO SEE IF A THREAT AREA REVEALS ITSELF WITH TIME.
AFTER A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND
LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN MILD WITH
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A REMNANT MCS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY AT THE START OF THE DAY FRI...ONE OF TWO POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE REMNANTS OF SUCH TO DRIFT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN TIME OF DAY...THREAT OF SEVERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TOP OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THU. MODEL AND WPC QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE
24-48 HOUR PERIOD ARE MOSTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE...WHICH
SHOULD BE HANDLED WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF COMBINED RAINFALL FROM THU INTO FRI MORNING RATHER THAN
NEW EVENTS FRI MORNING...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST
AND THE BETTER THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
MORNING MCS. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND BROAD
TROUGHING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS EAST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER MCS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE SATURDAY AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO
DRIFT ESE INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE RIDES OVER
THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/PA REGION. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOVED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...AS NOTED YESTERDAY...POPS CANNOT BE REDUCED BEYOND
MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT VALUES ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR
THE REMNANTS OF SUCH WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND WILL
ONLY BE RESOLVED NEAR THE EVENT AND ON THE MESOSCALE...NOT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LEVEL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS/DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF THE LONGSTANDING EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/NORTH NC AND
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ADVERTISES THIS TO
A MUCH GREATER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE TOP OF THIS WEAK CUTOFF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AS THE FAVORABLE MCS PATTERN OF THE CURRENT WEEK FADES GIVEN THE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AN END TO THE STRONG WNW-NW
FLOW ALOFT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...UPPER LOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BEYOND
MON...THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES DEPICT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN LIKELY STALLING
IN/NEAR THE REGION BY WED AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES. THUS...WE ARE LEFT IN A CONTINUAL UNSETTLED
PATTERN. ANY DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MON/TUE
TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN SUCH BY WED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MON/TUE WITH DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HENCE GREATER INSOLATION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT CONTINUE TO BE QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LEWISBURG OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN AGAIN...SO TAFS ARE BEING
AMENDED.
THE FIRST ROUND OF CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM AN UPSTREAM MCS DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION NOW. MOST SITES REPORTING -RA NOW AND CIGS
LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT SEVERAL SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT BCB/BLF/LWB. EXPECT -SHRA TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/REMNANTS ARRIVE INTO THE CWA WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA...EMBEDDED TSRA...AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04Z-
06Z...BUT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BCB/LWB/BLF.
OVERALL...POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
WINDS...LIGHT WSW-WNW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF
3-7KTS...OF COURSE VARIABLE AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AN OUTAGE STILL EXISTS WITH SOME FAA AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS IN
THE AREA. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...MBS/NF/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE 04.00Z RAP SOUNDINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN HANG UP ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT...SO ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND PULSEY. THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES
HAVE ALSO CAUSED HAZY/SMOKEY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 60F OR HIGHER. SOME OF THAT
COULD GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT WILL TO WARRANT PUTTING IT
INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND PIVOT BACK NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A MIX OF HAZE AND SMOKE FROM THE
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES HAS KEPT VISIBILITY DOWN INTO THE 2 TO
4SM RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TODAY...WHICH
COULD PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT ANY VISIBILITY
DROPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
WATER VAPOR/RAP SHOWS MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SHIFTING AWAY FROM SRN WI. MEANWHILE VRY LGT
FLOW PERSISTS WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SPANNING FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO LWR MI. MILKY SKIES TO PERSIST DUE TO THE SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES. CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
BETTER FORCING AND SHRA POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND FRONT TRAVERSING THE U.P. AND NRN WI. WHILE MID LEVEL
ENERGY PEELS AWAY TO THE EAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG
INTO CNTRL WI LATER...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRA IN NRN OR CNTRL WI TO NOT HOLD TOGETHER
INTO MKX CWA.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
PRESSURE TROUGH OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A WEAKENED STATE WILL BE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL WI. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH AN UPTICK IN CAPE MAY SET OFF A SHRA OR TSRA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE SMALL POPS
IN THE GRIDS. 925 TEMPS NUDGE A BIT MORE SO WARMER...THOUGH
DEPENDING ON SMOKE COVERAGE/THICKNESS...TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING
INSTABILITY ALONG WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL WI.
OTHERWISE A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF. SOUTH
WINDS AND 925H TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 22-23C RANGE WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR JULY 5TH AWAY
FROM LAKE MI. FEW SPOTS WL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 80S. THESE WARM
TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE CANADIAN SMOKE FIELD GETTING NUDGED NORTHWARD
BY INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
AFTER A MILD AND DRY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND FILTERED
MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY COOLER RIGHT ALONG LAKE MI. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU
SRN WI FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT. INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE AFTN. LLJ FOCUS HOWEVER WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
SFC DEWPTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THEN BUT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MORE IN QUESTION ALONG WITH SHEAR. LOCAL PARAMETERS
INDICATING SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE PROVIDED CLOUDS DON/T INCREASE
TO RAPIDLY ON MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CWA INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL AREA FOR DAY 3 BY SPC TONIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS
SFC CDFNT AND MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVE THROUGH WI DURING THE
EVENING. ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES DURING THE EVE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC FNT THRU SE WI AROUND 06Z/TUE WITH
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. HENCE PREFER LOWER
POPS FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.
BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW CARRIES WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES TUE INTO WED. MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE DIVERGES
ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LATE WEEK SHORT WAVE. 00Z ECMWF CARRIES
WEAK WAVE THRU WRN GTLAKES WED NGT/THU MRNG WITH ZONAL FLOW QUICKLY
RETURNING. 00Z GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF AND
GREATER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SRN WI ON THU/THU EVE.
DESPITE LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY FROM DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF...ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRENDING TOWARD WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION. WPC AND NAF ENSEMBLE ALSO LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.
FOR NOW...WL HAVE SMALL CHANCES FROM THE WED NGT THRU THU NIGHT
PERIOD BUT MAY BE ABLE TO PARE THESE BACK IN FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SHEAR AXIS FROM IL INTO ERN LAKES MOVG AWAY. EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION FROM NRN WI WITH NRN ENERGY/FRONT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. VERY WEAK TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER
WAVE WILL NECESSITATE VRY SML POPS FOR SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SHOW
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BE QUICK
ENOUGH GIVEN WEAK FLOW AROUND UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SE WY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO LESS UPPER SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDUCTING PERIODIC
RIPPLES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
REFIRE OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING SE OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ONE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK SFC TROF THAT
WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER SE WY BUT MAY FOCUS IT OVER THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES DO GO UP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT. SHEAR
VALUES NOT ALL THAT HIGH BUT STILL DECENT. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
WARM FRIDAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY AS 700 MB WARM ABOUT 2-4C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM +16C SUNDAY MORNING TO +8C SUNDAY EVENING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING. ECMWF SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH
QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTY SUNDAY
EVENING. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
A PRETTY COOL DAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLING INTO THE AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO +6C. CONTINUED
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. CHEYENNE MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S MONDAY.
ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PRETTY STRONG JET FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD DAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STILL A WAYS OUT THOUGH AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY MAY GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OUT WEST STILL THE FAVORED AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOONAL PATTERN
MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS A WEAKENING MCS OVER
NEBRASKA WITH REMNANT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTH INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS MCS...WITH WINDS
STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK COOL FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80 ARE EXPECTED
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS IT HAS BEEN
SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 10 TO 25 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...EVEN
THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG
AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...ANY STRONG OR SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
STATUS QUO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN TO
CONTINUE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN AN OPEN SOURCE OF MOISTURE WHILE A
STUBBORN NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE
ALSO MEANS THERE WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND HIGHER DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
248 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL
ELEVATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER SONORA MEXICO HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SOLUTION APPEARED TO BE DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT RATHER WELL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS DEEP AND MOIST
CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH AND WESTWARD TODAY. IN GENERAL...THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.
THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CALIFONIA AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
GRAHAM/COCHISE/GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION
OF BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BY NEXT WEEK...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION AND PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN...LATE EVENING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PHOENIX METRO DESPITE PALTRY LOOKING INSTABILITY PER PSR
SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS. SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR HAD BEEN
DEPICTING OUTFLOW FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO PHOENIX
METRO THIS EVENING BUT WITHOUT THE STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT WE ARE
SEEING. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...PWAT VALUES
ARE STILL A GOOD 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...LESS SO FURTHER
WEST...AND THUS THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NOTABLE RAINFALL. IN
FACT...THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST
OVER WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND LA PAZ COUNTY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...NOT ANTICIPATING THAT ACTIVITY TO
ADVECT IN A BIG WAY OVER OUR AREA. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE LESS
ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE HAD LAST NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING DEBRIS CLOUDS/SHOWERS
FROM SONORA BUT THAT ACTIVITY IS ALSO LESS ROBUST TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...ANTICIPATE LESS CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS SATURDAY
MORNING THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 246 PM MST/PDT...
RAIN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM AND
SPANNING WESTWARD INTO AZ AND EVEN ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. BROAD
CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE DAY HAS KEPT MOST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOL...WITH MANY SITES
AROUND PHOENIX-COOLIDGE-WICKENBURG STILL IN THE 90S. CLOUD COVER HAS
EXPANDED TOWARDS AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THEIR FORECAST HIGHS IN PLACES LIKE YUMA AND
IMPERIAL AROUND 103-106F. AROUND THE REGION...INVERTED TROUGH
CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE LOOPS AND UA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AZ WAS MOSTLY CAPTURED IN THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODEL INITIALIZATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE FIELDS WERE
STILL GENERALLY UNDERDONE. EVEN WITHOUT A FAIR INITIALIZATION...FCST
MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION STILL QUITE EXCESSIVE FOR THIS
EARLY IN THE MONSOON WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS 10-12C AND 700MB DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE 3-6C RANGE. LOOK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO PERCOLATE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SLOWER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AZ/NORTHERN SONORA
CORNER OF THE WORLD.
WITH SUCH A RICH MOISTURE SFC...ANY RIPPLE/DISTURBANCE/OUTFLOW/MCV
THAT TRAVELS INTO THE AREA COULD HELP GEN-UP PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AZ DESERT LOCALES. THE BETTER INITIALIZED HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE AN ACTIVE AFTN/EVENING ON THE RIM COULD SEND SOME OUTFLOWS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO...CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE FROM OUR
NEIGHBORS IN TUCSON LENDS ITSELF TO ANOTHER LARGE SONORA STORM
COMPLEX THAT COULD FURTHER ADD STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT FROM LA PAZ TO GILA...MARICOPA AND
PINAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY DECREASING ML/UL WIND FIELDS
WILL GENERALLY POINT TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LATER INTO THE
EVENING.
300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE THROUGH NM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...VEERING SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
COULD SPREAD AS FAR
WEST AS BLH AND I ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AFTER 09Z. NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IPL DRY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP/DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO.
G THE BELT OF STRONG UL WINDS AND STEERING FLOW
FURTHER INTO SOCAL AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY. MODEL STREAMLINE
FORECASTS DO NOT POINT TO ANYONE PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE OR INVERTED
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY...BUT DO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING
MORE ORGANIZED TO COME UP FROM THE GULF OF CA FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA
IS ALSO PROGGED TO GET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE THE SOUTH...TAPPING
INTO A POTENTIAL 2 INCH PWAT SURFACE ACROSS SONORA...PUSHING 850MB
AND 700MB DEWPOINTS BEYOND THE 8 AND 10C MONSOON LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY. SATURDAY CARRIES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES IN TERMS OF
PERCENTAGES AND AREAL COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO THE BE RULE THIS PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF RAIN-COOLED AIR AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS LEAVING DAYTIME TEMPS RUNNING THE UPPER 90 TO 105
RANGE OR SO.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YDA...AND NOW
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THRU
FRIDAY. ONLY ONE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.
MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE A ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.
NEXT SATURDAY...
MODELS FORECAST AN INVERTED TROF IN THE EASTERLIES TO ROTATE OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CREDENCE IS PUT INTO THE EXTENDED MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THE MONSOON...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
LOW GRADE MONSOON THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER
PINAL...EASTERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY AS OF 04Z ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX
METRO. MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE KSDL. NOT
ANTICIPATING AS MUCH ACTIVITY AS LAST NIGHT BUT KPHX WILL HAVE A
50/50 CHANCE OF GETTING TSRA AND GUSTY/VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 04Z-
08Z. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 KFT MSL BUT HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW 3SM. AFTER 09Z...DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REMNANTS OF SONORA
MEXICO STORMS. THUS THE MENTION OF VCSH.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY LA
PAZ AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING STORMS TO BE SEVERE AND CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 KFT MSL. HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW 3SM.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE TO BE RE-POSITIONED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASED CHANCE OF DESERT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES ANTICIPATED ALL WEEK. HIGHER VALUES WILL BE SEEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS
WILL DOMINATE ALL WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME TIDAL SITES MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
SHORT TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 404
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 404
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...404
RIP CURRENTS...404
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24HRS. A
FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE MID ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ATLC SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE AXIS HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE N BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL...
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NRN GOMEX. SRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR
AOB 10KTS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP BY MIDDAY. NO
SIG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE 00Z PENINSULA RAOBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NO MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE DVLPS.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE AS THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT OVER
S FL WORKING THEIR WAY NWD. MID LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH
H70-H50 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND 3C WILL SUSTAIN THE DIURNAL CU
FIELD AS IT DVLPS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTION...THEY
ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...
WHICH WILL EXCEED THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY (U80S/L90S).
FURTHERMORE...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LCL COL IN THE H85-H50 LYR OVER
THE W PENINSULA THAT IS ENHANCING THE LCL MID LVL VORT FIELDS THAT
SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. AS THE SEA BREEZE
PROPAGATES INLAND...SHOULD SEE SCT/NMRS SHRAS/TSRA DVLP ALONG AND W
OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 04/00Z MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS FROM 40-50 ALNG
THE COAST TO 50-60 INLAND...A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS
HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAINING N OF THE INTERSTATE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS IS COMMON IN HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS. OVERNIGHT
MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...LIFTING OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA
WITH LGT SWRLY STEERING FLOW SUN BECOME A VERY LIGHT/CHAOTIC SRLY
DRIFT MON-TUE. POPS REMAIN 50 COAST/60 NORTH/INLAND DROPPING BY 10
PCT ON TUE. TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO...MAXES 89-90F ALONG THE
COAST AND L90S INLAND...MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 75F.
WED-FRI...THE TUTT LOW WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE XTD PORTION OF
FRI`S DISCUSSION WILL START OFF LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS. THIS IN TURN IS PROGGED TO SHUNT THE TUTT LOW TOWARD
THE WSW AND INTO THE FL STRAITS WHILST DEFORMING IT. WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH POPS LOWERING COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
BY SAT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND
TOWARD THE WRN ATLC. THIS ERODES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER FL...LEADING TO
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS. INCREASING SWRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
SAGGING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPELL AN
INCREASING TREND IN POPS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7-8)
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 05/12Z...
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 04/13Z-04/16Z...E OF
KTIX-KOBE BCMG E/SE 5-8KTS...W OF KTIX-KOBE S/SE 4-7KTS. BTWN 04/16Z-
04/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG THRU 05/02Z. BTWN
04/19Z-04/21Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS CONTG THRU 04/02Z.
BTWN 05/02Z-05/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 04/15Z-04/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 04/18Z-04/22Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...SLGT CHC +TSRA WITH SFC G35KTS
INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 04/22Z-
05/01Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL FL WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...
S/SE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...S/SW N OF THE INLET. WINDS BCMG E/SE
NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
SUN-WED...NIL TO MINIMAL CHG IN THE POSN OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP
STAGNANT WX PATTERN IN PLACE. A GENTLE TO MDT SSE TO SSW FLOW ABOUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS 2FT OR A LITTLE LESS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 72 90 74 / 30 20 60 30
MCO 94 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
MLB 90 72 88 75 / 30 20 50 30
VRB 90 72 89 75 / 40 20 50 30
LEE 93 72 93 76 / 60 30 60 30
SFB 94 72 91 74 / 50 30 60 30
ORL 94 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 30
FPR 91 72 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, A +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS AND ROLL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAKENING MCS JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION HAS SPAWNED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS GRADUALLY PROPAGATING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING MCS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL ALSO REACH OUR AREA. THIS WILL CERTAINLY WREAK HAVOC ON THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY. THE RAP, AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE 4KM NAM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT REALLY CAPTURE THE
INITIAL OUTFLOW ENTERING THE REGION. NEITHER OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON START TO THE
SEABREEZE FRONTS, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COASTLINES. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRI-STATE
INTERSECTION WHERE THE SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY MEET
THE SEABREEZE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, SOUTH GEORGIA, AND THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL
RECEIVE RAIN.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT GOES, IT REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE THAT A SLUG OF HIGH SBCAPE, SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES,
AND MARGINAL DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL OVERLAP. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE TRI-
STATE INTERSECTION. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
THIS EVENING WE EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WITH A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
(RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AL AND
GA).
A BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, ENHANCING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION BY MONDAY, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP MOIST
CONVECTIVE CELLS. WITH THE EXPECTED ABOVE-AVERAGE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FORECAST THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY, TO BE REPLACED
BY A RELATIVELY SKINNY RIDGE WHICH WILL ACT AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN
HEIGHT MAXIMA IN TX AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
CORRELATES WELL WITH CLIMO POPS (30-40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING) AND TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S).
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] MVFR CEILINGS MAY OVERSPREAD ECP, DHN, AND
ABY LATER THIS MORNING. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY SCATTER SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THOUGH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND MVFR LEVELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS TODAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT DHN AND ABY. BY THIS EVENING, WE`LL
LIKELY JUST BE LEFT WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECK.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 93 73 90 72 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
PANAMA CITY 88 78 85 77 86 / 20 20 60 20 40
DOTHAN 89 72 87 71 88 / 60 30 60 30 40
ALBANY 91 72 88 71 89 / 60 30 60 40 40
VALDOSTA 94 72 91 71 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 73 91 / 40 20 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 89 78 86 75 88 / 20 20 40 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1108 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES. ANY FOG WE DO SEE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMING
WITH BASES IN THE 3000-4000 FOOT LEVEL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 21Z SATURDAY. 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY,
SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES LATE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER
WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70
MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES, HOWEVER GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 96 70 / 20 20 10 40
GCK 91 69 98 70 / 20 20 10 40
EHA 95 70 97 67 / 10 10 20 30
LBL 94 70 97 70 / 20 20 10 30
HYS 90 69 98 71 / 20 20 20 50
P28 91 71 95 73 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 88 72 / 60 60 60 20
BTR 89 74 90 74 / 60 60 50 10
ASD 90 74 89 74 / 60 60 50 20
MSY 89 77 89 76 / 60 60 50 10
GPT 88 76 87 75 / 50 50 50 30
PQL 89 74 88 74 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE TNITE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS PER LATEST HRRR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF INTO BPT AND LCH
BEFORE MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED VCTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE 4TH AS THE UPPER TROF BRINGS IN A COOL POOL ALOFT
AND ALLOWS CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 20 40
LCH 77 90 77 90 / 10 30 20 30
LFT 77 89 76 90 / 10 40 20 40
BPT 77 90 78 91 / 10 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR.
A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA. FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE SMOKE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM
FIRES FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK
HILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PV ANOMALY DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
WRN SD AND WRN NEB. SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF CONVECTION INITIATION LOCATION AS WELL AS EXTENT AND
COVERAGE. ON THE LARGE SCALE...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY IS
PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO CONTINUE ITS SEWD TRACK ACROSS SD AND
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES BEHIND AS
WRN STATES RIDGE FLATTENS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS FROM CANADA. LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER WRN NEB/SD AND INTO NERN CO AS A MORE WRLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND IS THE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...OR NOT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TWD A MORE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE BEING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY. WILL SIDE WITH THE IDEA
THAT AS THIS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS SRLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID 60S DEW
POINTS TO MOVE NWD WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT FOR THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INIT TO OCCUR. WHERE THIS HAPPENS IS WHERE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON. RUC SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON AN AREA
FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NWRN NEB. WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS
THAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE IS A SUFFICIENT CAPE-SHEAR
BALANCE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. IN
FACT...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE INIT
SHOW THIS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP FURTHER
CONVECTION SWWD INTO NEB. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY AND SWWD AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON STORMS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE BASED ON THE REASONING ABOVE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THE PAST WEEK OR SO WILL FINALLY MAKE A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM. SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS
A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TEMPS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST
CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS SE THROUGH DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DEW
PTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE A FEW AROUND 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CORRELATES TO GOOD MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN AS PWATS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND COULD SURPASS 2 INCHES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD LIFT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUED THE 60 OR HIGHER POPS.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...1.50 INCHES OR MORE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND SIMILAR TO
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BEGIN A RETURN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER AREA. MODELS FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THEN WITH MORE MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IT SHOULD DRIFT TOWARDS THE CWA. COVER
STILL IN QUESTION AS UPPER SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AND STORMS MAY DIE
AS THE MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FLOW TO
PRIMARILY TO BE ZONAL. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THE EASTERLY MOVEMENT WILL BRING THEM OVERHEAD. RIDGE
DOES BUILD A LITTLE AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS NERN WYOMING AND SERN MONTANA WAS
NOT HANDLED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS TONIGHT AS THEY WERE
INDICATING QPF WHICH SHOULD BE ONGOING ATTM. WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
IS INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA AN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SD OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING TONIGHT...HAVE
OPTED FOR A CLOUD FREE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HAZE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SMOKE FROM FIRES IN
CANADA...CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.
BY AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE SAT AFTN/EVE...PINPOINTING WHERE AND IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IS VERY DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HANDLE THE TSRA MENTION WITH A VCTS GROUP FOR BOTH
TERMINALS AND CONFINE THIS TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN
LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE THE GREATEST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.
SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 65 91 67 / 10 10 10 20
TULIA 89 67 91 70 / 10 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 89 67 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 89 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 89 68 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 93 72 95 74 / 20 10 0 20
SPUR 91 70 91 71 / 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.
Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Monday through Wednesday)
There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 92 74 93 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 91 72 92 73 93 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 90 73 90 73 91 / 10 5 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY
TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8
CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE
MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9
CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
/COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH
MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO
AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.
.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS GOING
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN
UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN
WILDFIRES.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR
THE VALLEY WHILE MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE WARM WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VALLEY: THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY (REDDING/RED BLUFF
VICINITY) WILL BE THE HOTTEST REGION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY (SACRAMENTO METRO AREA) AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
(STOCKTON/MODESTO VICINITY) WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELTA BREEZE
AND BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. WITH THAT IN MIND, HERE`S A LOOK AT HOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT DURING THE DAY...FOR RUNS/WALKS AND
PARADES IN THE MORNING HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AROUND 7 AM THEN WARM UP TO THE MID 80S AND
UPPER 90S BY NOON. THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6
PM WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 92 TO 105 DEGREES. MOST FIREWORKS
SHOWS WILL START AROUND 9 PM WITH 80-95 DEGREES BECOMING 75-90 BY
10 PM.
DELTA: 7 AM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S THEN REACH 70-80
DEGREES BY NOON. PEAK HEAT BETWEEN 4-6 PM WILL BE 80S TO LOW 90S.
BETWEEN 9-10 PM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS: THE HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SIERRA CREST NEAR AND NORTH OF YOSEMITE AROUND 11 AM THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL RANGE
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL IMPACT THE
SAFETY OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE FOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES. PLEASE WATCH THE
SKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STAY SHELTERED IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. BY NOON,
TEMPS WILL BE MID 70S TO MID 90S. PEAK HEAT WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 100S BETWEEN 3-6 PM. 9-10 PM TEMPS WILL BE MID
60S TO UPPER 80S.
FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE PATTERN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WILL PERSIST.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. BY TUESDAY, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CA COASTLINE. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TRANSITING THE TROUGH
FROM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS NORCAL INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HRS EXC LCL MVFR/IFR VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS OMTNS
22Z-04Z. GENLY LGT WINDS BECMG SLY 10-15 KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT
23Z (NWLY IN THE NRN SJ VLY) EXC WLY 20-30 KTS VCNTY CARQUINEZ
STRAIT.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.
BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST CHANGE WAS TO START MORNING SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN MARTIN COUNTY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 AND FLORIDA
TURNPIKE EAST TO THE OCEAN. THE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND
ENTERING MARTIN COUNTY.
TOO EARLY TO MESS WITH THE REST OF THE ZONES FORECAST AT THIS
MOMENT. GOING TO WATCH RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24HRS. A
FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE MID ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ATLC SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE AXIS HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE N BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL...
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NRN GOMEX. SRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR
AOB 10KTS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP BY MIDDAY. NO
SIG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE 00Z PENINSULA RAOBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NO MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE DVLPS.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE AS THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT OVER
S FL WORKING THEIR WAY NWD. MID LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH
H70-H50 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND 3C WILL SUSTAIN THE DIURNAL CU
FIELD AS IT DVLPS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTION...THEY
ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...
WHICH WILL EXCEED THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY (U80S/L90S).
FURTHERMORE...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LCL COL IN THE H85-H50 LYR OVER
THE W PENINSULA THAT IS ENHANCING THE LCL MID LVL VORT FIELDS THAT
SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. AS THE SEA BREEZE
PROPAGATES INLAND...SHOULD SEE SCT/NMRS SHRAS/TSRA DVLP ALONG AND W
OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 04/00Z MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS FROM 40-50 ALNG
THE COAST TO 50-60 INLAND...A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS
HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAINING N OF THE INTERSTATE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS IS COMMON IN HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS. OVERNIGHT
MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...LIFTING OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA
WITH LGT SWRLY STEERING FLOW SUN BECOME A VERY LIGHT/CHAOTIC SRLY
DRIFT MON-TUE. POPS REMAIN 50 COAST/60 NORTH/INLAND DROPPING BY 10
PCT ON TUE. TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO...MAXES 89-90F ALONG THE
COAST AND L90S INLAND...MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 75F.
WED-FRI...THE TUTT LOW WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE XTD PORTION OF
FRI`S DISCUSSION WILL START OFF LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS. THIS IN TURN IS PROGGED TO SHUNT THE TUTT LOW TOWARD
THE WSW AND INTO THE FL STRAITS WHILST DEFORMING IT. WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH POPS LOWERING COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
BY SAT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND
TOWARD THE WRN ATLC. THIS ERODES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER FL...LEADING TO
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS. INCREASING SWRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
SAGGING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPELL AN
INCREASING TREND IN POPS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7-8)
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 05/12Z...
ADDED MORNING VCTS TO THE KSUA AND KFPR TAFS.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 04/13Z-04/16Z...E OF
KTIX-KOBE BCMG E/SE 5-8KTS...W OF KTIX-KOBE S/SE 4-7KTS. BTWN 04/16Z-
04/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG THRU 05/02Z. BTWN
04/19Z-04/21Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS CONTG THRU 04/02Z.
BTWN 05/02Z-05/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 04/15Z-04/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 04/18Z-04/22Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...SLGT CHC +TSRA WITH SFC G35KTS
INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 04/22Z-
05/01Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL FL WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...
S/SE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...S/SW N OF THE INLET. WINDS BCMG E/SE
NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
SUN-WED...NIL TO MINIMAL CHG IN THE POSN OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP
STAGNANT WX PATTERN IN PLACE. A GENTLE TO MDT SSE TO SSW FLOW ABOUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS 2FT OR A LITTLE LESS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 72 90 74 / 30 20 60 30
MCO 94 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
MLB 90 72 88 75 / 30 20 50 30
VRB 90 72 89 75 / 40 20 50 30
LEE 93 72 93 76 / 60 30 60 30
SFB 94 72 91 74 / 50 30 60 30
ORL 94 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 30
FPR 91 72 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
652 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]...
DHN AND ABY REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING, WITH DHN TEETERING
ON IFR. UNEXPECTEDLY, VLD FELL TO LIFR LEVELS THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT DHN AND ABY. BY THIS EVENING, WE`LL LIKELY JUST BE
LEFT WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [325 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, A +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS AND ROLL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAKENING MCS JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION HAS SPAWNED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS GRADUALLY PROPAGATING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING MCS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL ALSO REACH OUR AREA. THIS WILL CERTAINLY WREAK HAVOC ON THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY. THE RAP, AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE 4KM NAM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT REALLY CAPTURE THE
INITIAL OUTFLOW ENTERING THE REGION. NEITHER OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON START TO THE
SEABREEZE FRONTS, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COASTLINES. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRI-STATE
INTERSECTION WHERE THE SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY MEET
THE SEABREEZE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, SOUTH GEORGIA, AND THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL
RECEIVE RAIN.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT GOES, IT REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE THAT A SLUG OF HIGH SBCAPE, SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES,
AND MARGINAL DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL OVERLAP. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE TRI-
STATE INTERSECTION. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
THIS EVENING WE EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WITH A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
(RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AL AND
GA).
A BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, ENHANCING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION BY MONDAY, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP MOIST
CONVECTIVE CELLS. WITH THE EXPECTED ABOVE-AVERAGE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FORECAST THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY, TO BE REPLACED
BY A RELATIVELY SKINNY RIDGE WHICH WILL ACT AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN
HEIGHT MAXIMA IN TX AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
CORRELATES WELL WITH CLIMO POPS (30-40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING) AND TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S).
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.
.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 93 73 90 72 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
PANAMA CITY 88 78 85 77 86 / 20 20 60 20 40
DOTHAN 89 72 87 71 88 / 60 30 60 30 40
ALBANY 91 72 88 71 89 / 60 30 60 40 40
VALDOSTA 94 72 91 71 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 73 91 / 40 20 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 89 78 86 75 88 / 20 20 40 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.
01
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 70 85 69 / 100 60 60 40
ATLANTA 83 71 84 70 / 100 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 75 64 78 63 / 100 70 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 81 68 83 67 / 100 70 70 40
COLUMBUS 87 72 87 71 / 60 60 70 40
GAINESVILLE 79 69 82 68 / 100 70 70 50
MACON 90 71 89 70 / 50 60 70 40
ROME 82 69 83 68 / 100 70 70 40
PEACHTREE CITY 84 70 84 69 / 100 70 70 40
VIDALIA 93 71 91 72 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WAS IF TO PUT TS/CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR NOT, SO WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE 5-7 KFT CLOUD DECK AND WINDS WILL BE
SE/SSE 10-20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 96 70 / 20 20 10 40
GCK 91 69 98 70 / 20 20 10 40
EHA 95 70 97 67 / 20 20 20 30
LBL 94 70 97 70 / 20 20 10 30
HYS 90 69 98 71 / 20 20 20 50
P28 91 71 95 73 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 40 30 30 20
MLU 85 72 88 73 / 80 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 50 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 50 30 60 30
ELD 84 71 87 73 / 100 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 30 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 30 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.
KRAUTMANN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 88 72 / 60 60 60 20
BTR 89 74 90 74 / 60 60 50 10
ASD 90 74 89 74 / 60 60 50 20
MSY 89 77 89 76 / 60 60 50 10
GPT 88 76 87 75 / 50 50 50 30
PQL 89 74 88 74 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLU 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 40 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
ELD 85 71 87 73 / 80 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLU 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 40 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
ELD 85 71 87 73 / 80 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLU 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 40 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
ELD 85 71 87 73 / 80 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS
ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY
HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.
USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.
SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.
MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.
MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1039 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
842 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUEUTHE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD WILL BURN OFF TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR
THESE REASONS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL
AGENCIES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THAT WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN WASHINGTON STATE. THIS HAS IN A SENSE LEAVES US IN A COL
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TODAY WON`T BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE UP. THE NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING.
THEREFORE THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. MODELS SHOW
WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE
DIRECTION. THE GFS IS SOUTHERLY WHILE THE NAM IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
THE NAM SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT WE`LL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. OF NOTE, THE GFS SHOWS MORE
QPF IN NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHWEST OREGON, BUT THERE`S NO TRIGGER
AND IT`S FAIRLY DRY AT THE MID LEVELS, SO FIND THIS SOLUTION
SUSPECT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING, THEREFORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST.
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVING INLAND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGHINESS THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ORZ621-623.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ282.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/MAP/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SO FAR TIMING IS HOLDING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD NOW ENTERING MY EASTERN ZONES. WE
WILL SEE SLOW DRYING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST.
THE HRRR STILL FORMS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ON THE EDGE OF THE
MORE SOLID CLOUDS IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY.
FROM EARLIER...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.
A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.
IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.
LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS OF MID MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period, as
mid and high level cloudiness stream across the area. There is a
little MVFR cigs other the higher clouds that may affect the
southern terminals, but it would very brief if it does. Otherwise,
south winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.
Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Monday through Wednesday)
There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 92 74 93 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 91 72 92 73 93 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 90 73 90 73 91 / 10 5 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AT 11-15 KTS...AND DECLINE TO 10 KTS OR LESS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. BKN VFR DECKS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
RETURN TO SCT-BKN BY THIS EVENING. SLIM CHANCES OF -SHRA/-TSRA
DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY
AT KCDS WHERE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE NEARBY. HAVE ELECTED
TO NOT INSERT A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE
AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 65 91 67 / 10 10 10 20
TULIA 89 67 91 70 / 10 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 89 67 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 89 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 89 68 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 93 72 95 74 / 20 10 0 20
SPUR 91 70 91 71 / 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.
A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.
WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL
POPS. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY
MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
PC
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THROUGH 18Z AND
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS THRU THE AFTN. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...ADDING A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY. RECENT
MODIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO MEASURE THE LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OVER THE WATER DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVE.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY
TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8
CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE
MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9
CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
/COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH
MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO
AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS GOING
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN
UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN
WILDFIRES.
MARINE...
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
158 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL ELEVATE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE CLOUDS
ARE MOSTLY LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED
INTO COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV SEEMINGLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES
AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. NORMALLY WHEN THESE
FEATURES DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THE CONVECTION TENDS TO DEVELOP ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT IS THE CASE CURRENTLY WITH
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF
TUCSON THROUGH PARTS OF THE METRO AND INTO THE CATALINA`S. THESE
STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER PARTS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.
THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR WANTS TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...AND THIS WOULD GIVE CREDANCE TO THE NOTION
THAT THE MCV TENDS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY NEAR THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR
(EVEN THE 16Z RUN) WERE SHOWING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...GIVEN THAT TODAY IS THE FOURTH...WITH
PLENTY OF EVENING FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED...THINK THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WOULD BE TO KEEP THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THEN...IF SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE 17Z RUN OF
THE HRRR WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CORRECT...THE EVENING SHIFT
CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LOWER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING EVENING HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
MODELS SUGGEST SUNDAY WITH BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE MCV HAVING
MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. IF WE SEE MORE SUN
TOMORROW...THEN WE SHOULD DEFINITELY HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY.
BY MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH MOISTURE EASTWARD...THUS LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT REDUCED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. ..WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.
&&
.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
GETTING AN EARLY START NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTION
BEGAN DEVELOPING JUST AFTER 9 AM. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW IN THE MORNING
RAOB BELOW ABOUT 10 KM SO WE ARE SEEING SOME SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AGAIN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE STORM MOTION PICK UP A LITTLE
WITH TIME TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRECIP CHANCES WERE UPDATED TO ADD TIME RESOLUTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS WEST OF I-17/US 89 MAY BE MOSTLY
QUIET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AGAIN
FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU/MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST SAT JUL 4/...AREA RADARS SHOW LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND AS WELL. FRIDAY NIGHTS PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DELAY THE START OF CONVECTION TODAY UNTIL
LATE MORNING IN THE WHITE MTNS AND EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
SEEING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AZ ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY TODAY AND THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER MOVES TO
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THUS MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES GOING...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WORKING INTO WESTERN AZ TUESDAY NIGHT
/WEDNESDAY. AREAS WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE SHOULD BE DRY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
CURRENT PROGS VERIFY. AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE STILL HANG ON TO SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE...THOUGH NOT AS RICH AS WHAT WE HAVE OVERHEAD THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A KCMR TO
KSJN LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER 21-23Z...STORMS WILL
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFLG-KPAN LINE. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HRS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE AND MOIST MONSOON PATTERN WILL BRING
DAYTIME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AT NIGHT...WITH DEBRIS CLOUD
AND SCATTERED STRATIFORM SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE...WITH FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...AT/DL
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
929 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL
ELEVATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOSTLY LEFT
OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED INTO COCHISE COUNTY. STILL
SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...GENERALLY WEST OF SELLS. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
MOST RECENT HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE EVENTS OF EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM DEPICTS
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SO...BASED ON THIS...THINK THE POP FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
GRAHAM/COCHISE/GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION
OF BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR FOR AN UPSWING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W TONIGHT. LTST RADAR SHOWED
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BACK OVER VA AND THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THESE
CUD AFFECT MAINLY SRN AREAS THRU LATE AFTN, BUT ALL PRECIP SHUD
END BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE SHWRS WILL EVEN
IMPACT THE AREA.
THEN FOR TONIGHT, DRY WX WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. PRECIP IS COMING TO AN
END ACRS THE REGION. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE N AND W WHERE IT
WAS STEADIER EARLIER CONDS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
CUD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS THRU LATE AFTN, MAINLY S AND W,
BUT WILL STILL GO WITH VFR CONDS. AFTER 00Z, ANY AND ALL PRECIP
CHCS WILL HAVE ENDED. THEN EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY. FEW IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUN, WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE S.
THE NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, MORE NLY
EARLY ION SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S OR SW LATER ON SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THRU THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 84 69 86 / 50 60 40 50
ATLANTA 70 81 69 84 / 60 60 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 63 76 63 79 / 60 60 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 68 80 68 84 / 70 60 40 50
COLUMBUS 72 85 71 87 / 60 60 40 50
GAINESVILLE 68 80 68 83 / 60 60 50 50
MACON 71 88 70 88 / 30 60 40 50
ROME 68 81 68 85 / 70 60 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 82 69 85 / 60 60 40 50
VIDALIA 73 92 72 89 / 30 60 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GOOD HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.
01
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 81 70 85 69 / 100 50 60 40
ATLANTA 80 71 84 70 / 100 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 74 64 78 63 / 90 70 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 80 68 83 67 / 100 70 70 40
COLUMBUS 87 72 87 71 / 50 60 60 40
GAINESVILLE 80 69 82 68 / 100 60 60 50
MACON 86 71 89 70 / 40 40 60 40
ROME 80 69 83 68 / 100 70 70 40
PEACHTREE CITY 81 70 84 69 / 100 60 60 40
VIDALIA 91 71 91 72 / 40 40 60 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK
DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME HAZY
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITH FAIR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
APPEAR IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH HRRR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS WEEK. LATEST NAM MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT AND
HAS IT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE
THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING
JUST EAST OF I-55 BY THAT TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER.
HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE POP`S MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH THE MAIN SHOW COMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE.
SUCH VALUES LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
ON STALLING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THIS INDEED STALLS OVER OUR AREA...BUT IN
THE MEANTIME WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW (5% ON LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK) AS
THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHWARD SURGE IN
THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE SHOWING A
FAIR RANGE IN THESE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONVERGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GFS WITH IT MORE OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE EXACTLY TO FOCUS THE
HIGHER POP`S LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO AROUND 40%
UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT THIS AFTERNOON COULD GO BROKEN A
FEW TIMES INTO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG I-72 AIRPORTS WHERE
SPI HAS MVFR CEILING NEAR 2K FT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET/0130Z LEAVING JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-4K FT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 15Z/SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL MO/IL/IN
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INTO TONIGHT BECOME SSE NEAR 6 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS NEAR I-72. HRRR SHOWING PATCHY
FOG BY 06-07Z EAST OF I-55. ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIFT TO A LIGHT HAZE BY 13Z/SUN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A BEAUTIFUL 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THAT PANS
OUT THAT WILL BE THE 1ST DRY WEEKEND IN CENTRAL IL SINCE MAY 2-3.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WHICH
LIFTED BY MID MORNING. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER WITH A LITTLE MORE
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING SE OF THE IL RIVER
WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH OF
I-70. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
THOUGH STILL MAY HAVE A LINGERING HAZE FROM THE SMOKE FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILDFIRES. HIGHS 80-85F THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL/MO TODAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 875MB...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DESPITE THE WARMER
CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TOLERABLE IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S BOTH DAYS...WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB OVER 70 DEGREES.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...TRIGGERING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY THEN TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
TUE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BY LATE MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE FRONT...WITH THE 00Z
JULY 4 RUNS NOW KEEPING IT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE MEAGER AT JUST 15-20KT. AM THEREFORE EXPECTING A
LARGELY HOT AND DRY DAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING
IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE CUT BACK POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...IT
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONSENSUS...THINK BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO END RAIN CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE POPS AS A WEAK WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS
FEATURE PASSES TO THE EAST...ECMWF SHOWS FRONT GETTING SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A LARGELY DRY FORECAST DURING THAT TIME
ACCORDINGLY. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND FRONT GETS PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT THIS AFTERNOON COULD GO BROKEN A
FEW TIMES INTO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG I-72 AIRPORTS WHERE
SPI HAS MVFR CEILING NEAR 2K FT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET/0130Z LEAVING JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-4K FT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 15Z/SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL MO/IL/IN
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INTO TONIGHT BECOME SSE NEAR 6 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS NEAR I-72. HRRR SHOWING PATCHY
FOG BY 06-07Z EAST OF I-55. ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIFT TO A LIGHT HAZE BY 13Z/SUN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THEN
DEEPEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 12-18KT INTO
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO 15-25KT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF INTO TONIGHT AS NVA SPREADS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEW MODELS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXCEPT FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN
ELEVATED STORM NEAR HAYS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 98 70 / 10 10 10 40
GCK 91 69 98 70 / 10 10 10 40
EHA 95 70 98 67 / 20 20 10 30
LBL 94 70 97 70 / 20 10 10 30
HYS 91 69 99 71 / 10 10 10 50
P28 91 71 97 73 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
DIURNAL CU FIELDS BEGINNING TO GROW AND STILL EXPECTING A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.
SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEN STATES WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA. FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE SMOKE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM
FIRES FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK
HILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PV ANOMALY DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
WRN SD AND WRN NEB. SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF CONVECTION INITIATION LOCATION AS WELL AS EXTENT AND
COVERAGE. ON THE LARGE SCALE...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY IS
PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO CONTINUE ITS SEWD TRACK ACROSS SD AND
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES BEHIND AS
WRN STATES RIDGE FLATTENS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS FROM CANADA. LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER WRN NEB/SD AND INTO NERN CO AS A MORE WRLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND IS THE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...OR NOT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TWD A MORE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE BEING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY. WILL SIDE WITH THE IDEA
THAT AS THIS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS SRLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID 60S DEW
POINTS TO MOVE NWD WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT FOR THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INIT TO OCCUR. WHERE THIS HAPPENS IS WHERE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON. RUC SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON AN AREA
FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NWRN NEB. WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS
THAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE IS A SUFFICIENT CAPE-SHEAR
BALANCE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. IN
FACT...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE INIT
SHOW THIS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP FURTHER
CONVECTION SWWD INTO NEB. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY AND SWWD AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON STORMS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE BASED ON THE REASONING ABOVE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THE PAST WEEK OR SO WILL FINALLY MAKE A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM. SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS
A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TEMPS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST
CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS SE THROUGH DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DEW
PTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE A FEW AROUND 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CORRELATES TO GOOD MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN AS PWATS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND COULD SURPASS 2 INCHES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD LIFT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUED THE 60 OR HIGHER POPS.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...1.50 INCHES OR MORE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND SIMILAR TO
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BEGIN A RETURN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER AREA. MODELS FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THEN WITH MORE MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IT SHOULD DRIFT TOWARDS THE CWA. COVER
STILL IN QUESTION AS UPPER SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AND STORMS MAY DIE
AS THE MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FLOW TO
PRIMARILY TO BE ZONAL. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THE EASTERLY MOVEMENT WILL BRING THEM OVERHEAD. RIDGE
DOES BUILD A LITTLE AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE TIMING OF
TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FPR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHERWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
132 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUE...SHASTA...SCOTT...KLAMATH RIVER...AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST MID-MORNING SUNDAY. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...GENERALLY FROM
THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL
ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL AGENCIES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/BPN/JRS/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1219 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUE...SHASTA...SCOTT...KLAMATH RIVER...AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST MID-MORNING SUNDAY. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...GENERALLY FROM
THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL
ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL AGENCIES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/BPN/JRS/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
THE COASTAL PRAIRIES CONVECTION HAS SO FAR STEERED CLEAR OF I-35
TAF SITES TO THE EAST WHERE HIGHER PWAT VALUES PERSIST. HRRR RUNS
SHOW DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO REACH THE I-35 TERMINALS
WITH EACH RUN...SO WILL CONITNUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE TAF CONSIDERATIONS ARE SIMPLY A
REFLECTION OF PERSISTENCE ON WINDS AND CIGS. IFR CIGS SHOULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT THE VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER WITH NO BR MENTIONED IN TODAYS TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
WE START WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM
TO LOWER TO IFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. VFR WILL RETURN BY AROUND NOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO ALLOW FOR A
SEABREEZE. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SEABREEZE WILL LIFT THE MOISTURE
TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND A GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WIND. HAVE LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AS
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THEM. HOWEVER...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO
ALONG I-35 AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS THERE. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BUILDS A LITTLE TO THE EAST DRYING THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
FROM ABOVE. THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE PWS NEAR 1.7 INCHES REMAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK INTO MEXICO
BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER WESTERN
TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS NOTED IN THE ECMWF...GEM AND
NAM BRINGING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR WESTERN AREAS WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH NORTH WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE FAVORED
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY. EARLIER RUNS OF
SOME MODELS SHOWED QPF FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE CAPS THE
AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
BY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO
BEGIN A PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER TEXAS WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS WILL PREVENT RAIN. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP 100S OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 74 91 76 92 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 75 91 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 90 75 91 / 10 - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 93 76 95 / 10 - 10 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 90 76 91 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 75 92 / 10 - 10 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 90 76 92 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 75 91 77 91 / 20 - 20 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 76 91 76 92 / 10 - 10 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 76 91 76 92 / 10 - 10 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE. SCT DECK AT ALL TERMINALS
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AFTN WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL NE OF KCDS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS MVFR CIGS SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBB WITH VEERING WINDS SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 91 67 87 / 10 10 20 50
TULIA 67 91 70 87 / 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 67 90 70 87 / 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 67 92 71 91 / 10 10 20 40
LUBBOCK 68 92 71 90 / 10 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 66 92 70 92 / 10 10 20 30
BROWNFIELD 68 92 70 91 / 10 10 20 30
CHILDRESS 72 95 74 93 / 10 0 20 30
SPUR 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will continue at the northern terminals through the
TAF period. Stratus forming over the southern half of West Central
Texas will lower ceilings at the southern terminals to MVFR
beginning around 08Z at KJCT and an hour or so later at the
remaining southern terminals. Ceilings are not expected to
improve to VFR during the remainder TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period, as
mid and high level cloudiness stream across the area. There is a
little MVFR cigs other the higher clouds that may affect the
southern terminals, but it would very brief if it does. Otherwise,
south winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.
Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Monday through Wednesday)
There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 74 93 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 40
San Angelo 72 92 73 93 73 / 5 10 10 10 20
Junction 73 90 73 91 74 / 5 10 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.
SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT. EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE. BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER. ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT. HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION...PC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA. HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING. THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER. KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF