Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/03/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...MUGGY DAY FOR OUR AREA
TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S WHILE THE
KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME IN AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. AS
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN
MANY SPOTS THANK TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...A FEW SPOTS IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY ARE RUNNING NEARLY 15 DEGREES LESS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. FIRST FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES THE NEXT 8 HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT KMUX RADAR HAS
JUST LIGHT RETURNS INDICATED FOR SAN BENITO AND SE MONTEREY
COUNTY AND IN MOST CASES THAT IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY HAD BEEN SHOWING THE FOCUS SWITCHING MORE TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THE EVENING. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH THE 20Z VERSION NOW KEEPING IT ALMOST ENTIRELY
DRY. WILL JUST KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS GOING IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD END BY SUNSET AND NOT BE IN OUR CWA FOR FRIDAY AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE CONTINUED COOLING
AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS PLUS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE.
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM
60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THESE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. A BATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS.
VERY SHALLOW MARINE/FOG DECK IS EVIDENT OFFSHORE AND WILL LIKELY
IMPACT KMRY AND KSNS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SHALLOW NATURE ITS LIKELY TO SNEAK THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND
IMPACT KOAK TOWARDS MORNING BUT MAY MISS KSFO. FOR NOW HEDGED BETS
AND TAF WILL SHOW A MORNING CIG FOR KSFO. WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND
FOR EVENING UPDATES AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ANY MORNING CIGS WILL
MIX OUT BY 16-17Z WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING BUT LESS
CHANCE FOR -SHRA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. CANT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE BUT NO IMPACTS TO KSFO EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EARLY MORNING CIG BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOULD CIGS
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE GONE BY 16-17Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER POSSIBLE
THROUGH 03Z...THEN A FOG BANK OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL MOVE INTO
KMRY LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY KSNS OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS TO
MIX OUT BY 17Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
320 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
WORKING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY ABOUT TO REACH THE CAPITAL
REGION. THESE WERE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ONE OF THE STORMS WAS MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT WORKED THROUGH
JOHNSTOWN KNOCKING A FEW TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN THAT TOWN.
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 80-85 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND FRONT WORK
THROUGH...MID TO UPPER 70S MOST OTHER PLACES.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.
A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.
ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.
THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.
A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.
ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.
THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.
SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.
ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND FOR
THE OTHER TERMINALS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [329 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
AS OF 06Z THERE IS A LARGE MCS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. THE HRRR HAS THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST AND REACHING OUR
WESTERN WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WE EXPECT THE LONG WAVE THROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A TYPE 5 SEA BREEZE PATTERN WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE WATER AND COAST THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION IN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AS TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR
REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
BEHIND THURSDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH DRYING. OUR FORECAST POP IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
POSSIBILITIES, IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90
THURSDAY, THEN LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
RELATIVELY WEAK 500 MB FLOW (20 KT OR LESS) SUGGEST A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THIS DOESN`T HAPPEN IN OUR AREA VERY OFTEN DURING THE SUMMER, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SOLUTION EVENTUALLY PINCHES OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER OUR REGION, WHILE THE
ECMWF BUILDS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE IT`S
UNCLEAR WHICH WILL BE CORRECT, WE WILL TAKE THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS, WHICH YIELDS NEAR-CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE BERMUDA
RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AS RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES ON SOME OF THE
RIVERS. HOWEVER, THE MMEFS KEEPS RIVER STAGES BELOW THEIR LOCAL
ACTION STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON OUR LOCAL ENSEMBLE
OF CAMS, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES
OF A POINT DURING A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 70 20 30
PANAMA CITY 86 78 87 79 87 / 40 30 30 20 30
DOTHAN 91 73 89 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 30
ALBANY 91 72 90 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 40
VALDOSTA 91 71 90 73 93 / 50 30 70 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 74 91 74 92 / 30 20 40 20 30
APALACHICOLA 89 78 88 78 89 / 40 30 30 20 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
AS OF 06Z THERE IS A LARGE MCS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. THE HRRR HAS THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST AND REACHING OUR
WESTERN WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WE EXPECT THE LONG WAVE THROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A TYPE 5 SEA BREEZE PATTERN WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE WATER AND COAST THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION IN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AS TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR
REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
BEHIND THURSDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH DRYING. OUR FORECAST POP IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
POSSIBILITIES, IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90
THURSDAY, THEN LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
RELATIVELY WEAK 500 MB FLOW (20 KT OR LESS) SUGGEST A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THIS DOESN`T HAPPEN IN OUR AREA VERY OFTEN DURING THE SUMMER, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SOLUTION EVENTUALLY PINCHES OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER OUR REGION, WHILE THE
ECMWF BUILDS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE IT`S
UNCLEAR WHICH WILL BE CORRECT, WE WILL TAKE THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS, WHICH YIELDS NEAR-CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AT TLH AND VLD. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TODAY, SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE BERMUDA
RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AS RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES ON SOME OF THE
RIVERS. HOWEVER, THE MMEFS KEEPS RIVER STAGES BELOW THEIR LOCAL
ACTION STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON OUR LOCAL ENSEMBLE
OF CAMS, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES
OF A POINT DURING A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 70 20 30
PANAMA CITY 86 78 87 79 87 / 40 30 30 20 30
DOTHAN 91 73 89 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 30
ALBANY 91 72 90 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 40
VALDOSTA 91 71 90 73 93 / 50 30 70 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 74 91 74 92 / 30 20 40 20 30
APALACHICOLA 89 78 88 78 89 / 40 30 30 20 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES TODAY. KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AFFECT THE TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 17Z TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION AT KAPF
TAF SITE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION..54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 81 90 / 10 20 10 30
MIAMI 79 91 80 91 / 10 20 10 30
NAPLES 76 93 76 92 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.
ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
943 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
HOURLY GRIDS FOR WIND AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER WITH EARLIER
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/IL...WHILE A COMBINED
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD SURGED INLAND ACROSS NE IL/NW
IND AND EAST CENTRAL IL SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AN AREA
OF FOG HAD INITIALLY DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WEB CAMERAS INDICATE
THAT FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LIFTING INTO A LOW CEILING AND
SCATTERING AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR ARRIVES. 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO. FARTHER WEST...CIRRUS WAS SPILLING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. SOME
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR
OBS UPSTREAM...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE...BUT 10Z-16Z SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IF IT DOES OCCUR. A LAKE BREEZE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE WIND AOA 10 KT UNTIL THE
EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER AGAIN.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
314 AM CDT
NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AT TIMES IN
BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ABATING FROM THE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LOOK TO FRESHEN UP AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
943 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
HOURLY GRIDS FOR WIND AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER WITH EARLIER
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/IL...WHILE A COMBINED
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD SURGED INLAND ACROSS NE IL/NW
IND AND EAST CENTRAL IL SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AN AREA
OF FOG HAD INITIALLY DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WEB CAMERAS INDICATE
THAT FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LIFTING INTO A LOW CEILING AND
SCATTERING AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR ARRIVES. 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO. FARTHER WEST...CIRRUS WAS SPILLING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. SOME
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR
OBS UPSTREAM...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE...BUT 10Z-16Z SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IF IT DOES OCCUR. A LAKE BREEZE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE WIND AOA 10 KT UNTIL THE
EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER AGAIN.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
STORY REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...THE STORY WILL BE THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST
THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. IN GENERAL A
FEW LIFTING METHODS EXIST...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE IN
THEIR OWN RIGHT...INCLUDING WAA MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SHORT WAVE VORT MAX...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE STRONGEST...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORM IN WESTERN HALF OF IOWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA TO LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THIS THE BEST SO FAR...WITH OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING AGREEING. WITH PRIMARILY AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AND SHOULD BE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. REGARDING SMOKE...HIGHS DID HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING GUIDANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL WERE
NOT TOO FAR OFF. DID NOT DO MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP INTO WED...AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A GRADUAL CHANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVOLVING FROM WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH TO A BROADER MEAN
TROUGH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT ONSET THE FOCUS WILL
BE ON LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN GREAT
LAKES JET AND FORCING WITH CURRENT MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN SHORT WAVE.
WEAK/MODERATE AND FAIRLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WILL PASS THROUGH IA WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL LIMITS HOWEVER SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME WEAK PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO MO/IL
BY 06Z. CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN SOUTH AND WEST INTO THU AND THU
NIGHT WITH JUST TOKEN FORCING IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BUT
CONTINUED AIRMASS STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RELATIVELY
INACTIVE.
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GULF OF AK
LOW PASSING THROUGH WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
INTO FAIRLY BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF WARMING AND INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
TIMING QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL BE REALIZED HOWEVER WITH
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FASTER THAN RESPECTIVE GFS 12Z SOLUTION. ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THUS WILL HIT
POPS THE HARDEST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH HIGH PLAINS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY REACHING IA INTO THE NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO KEEP IT GOING IN SOME FORM INTO MON. GFS
MLCAPES SUGGEST VALUES MAY REACH 2-3K DURING PEAK HEATING. DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION SO SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE THERE...BUT SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FROPA.
OUTSIDE OF WARMING SURGE JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS
PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL TO VARIED DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN
SEEMS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDER MAINLY AFFECTING SW IOWA ATTM.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY ALOFT FOCUSING CONVECTION SW OF TAF
SITES AND HAVE LESSENED COVERAGE -SHRA THROUGH 10Z AT KFOD AND
KDSM/KOTM. UPSTREAM MCS OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
TOGETHER WITH SOME SUPPORT OF NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS NOW...THIS SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST AREAS AFT 10Z AND
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...MOST LIKELY WEAKENING AS
IT DOES. LIKELY THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH SOME
MVFR DEVELOPING ONCE -SHRA CROSS REGION WED. BY 00Z THU SHOWERS
WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST. WINDS MIX AFT 17Z WITH GUSTS 15KTS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.
FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS
CLOSER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON; AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
SIMPLY GROW UPSCALE OR WHETHER RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
SEVERE. IF CONVECTION IS DISCRETE, THEN VERY LARGE HAIL (>2.75")
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF THE WIND
AND HIGH CAPE VALUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY, ALL THE COOL OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY
HAMPER STORM SEVERITY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
POSSIBLE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ON SATURDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAY EVENINGS CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 8-12KT. WIND SHIFT AT KHYS AROUND 18Z, THEN
21Z AT KGCK, AND 23-00Z AT KDDC. MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ALSO. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF KGCK AND KDDC AFTER
21Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 98 68 92 / 0 20 20 40
GCK 71 98 69 90 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 70 99 70 91 / 0 20 20 40
LBL 71 100 71 92 / 0 20 20 40
HYS 73 97 68 90 / 10 10 20 30
P28 73 100 71 94 / 0 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES TO DISCUSS AT THE END OF THE EVENING
SHIFT. FIRST...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WAS UPDATED AND
ISSUED AT 1040 PM. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO IT...JUST
WANTED TO ISSUE AN UPDATED PRODUCT SO THE MID SHIFT WILL NOT HAVE
TO MESS WITH IT UNTIL LATER IN THEIR SHIFT. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND OTHER UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS. LEFT IN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA IN CASE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRES OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE POPS
ARE A LOT LOWER THAN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THAT WERE
IN THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING...THERE JUST WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH A LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
DIMINISHEDSHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
FORECAST STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL
LEAVE THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE LATER IN THE SHIFT TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING AND TO UPDATE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z. SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE
EVEN FURTHER WHENEVER A THUNDERSTORM OR INTENSE RAIN SHOWER
AFFECTS A TAF SITE...PERHAPS RESULTING IN LIFR OR WORSE CIGS AND
VSBYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
FORECAST STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL
LEAVE THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE LATER IN THE SHIFT TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING AND TO UPDATE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z. SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE
EVEN FURTHER WHENEVER A THUNDERSTORM OR INTENSE RAIN SHOWER
AFFECTS A TAF SITE...PERHAPS RESULTING IN LIFR OR WORSE CIGS AND
VSBYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED AS EVEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG
ONES ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLUEGRASS WHICH WILL LIKELY
AFFECT OUR CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR
STRAY STORMS ARE FOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...PER RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAWN. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS FOR THIS AS WELL AS SENT OUT FRESHENED ZONES AND A CALMER
HWO. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DESCENDING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH STORMS JUST TRAILING AND SOME
DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST. THE WORST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
JUST TOUCHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH EVERY SCAN OF THE RADAR PROVIDING
CRITICAL DATA FOR THE EVOLVING CELLS. TO THE SOUTH...EARLIER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE SEEMED TO MAKE FOR QUIETER
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AS THE OUTFLOW IS NOW THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE
WATCH...DUE TO EXPIRE IN AN HOUR...FROM THE SOUTH WHILE KEEPING IT
IN THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHERN STORMS AND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALSO...INCORPORATED THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR POPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...DID TWEAK THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...COLD POOLS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESH SETS OF
ZONES AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN
THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY
TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN
HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE
HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION
MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON
AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE
ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND
ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.
SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN
POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED
COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY
LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LAST TWO PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS
WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF HEAT INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN LEFT OVER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN. SEVERAL
TAF SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING FOG...AND IF THEY CONTINUE TO DROP
IN VISIBILITY SOME MAY ACTUALLY GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS FOR A PERIOD BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...SOME TAF SITES MAY
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CATEGORIES DEPENDING ON THE VARYING
DEGREE OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. AS THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE
MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO
GEAR TAFS TOWARD THIS IDEA...BUT ACTUAL VIS AND CIGS WILL VARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STORMS DEVELOP AND PASS NEARBY...OR EVEN
OVER THE TAF SITE. A HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE
EVENING...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE EXACT
IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AND
MVFR/HIGH END IFR VIS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)...
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. FOR THURSDAY...ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEING COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL LEVELS TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BRINGING
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND POPS WILL BE 30% OR LESS.
ANSORGE
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH SOME CONVECTION ERUPTING
ON GULF BREEZE ADVANCEMENT IN MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WENT CLOSE TO
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE TO TIME LIKELY CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS AT TERMINALS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR 2-3 HOUR
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...PRIMARILY WITH THE EARLIER ONSET CELLS...THOUGH OTHERS MAY
PULSE TO THESE LEVELS WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z.
24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
THE EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. WAVES HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2
FEET WITH 3 FEET OCCURRING AT TIMES.
ANSORGE
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 10
BTR 73 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 75 92 75 92 / 20 10 10 10
MSY 75 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 76 90 77 90 / 20 20 10 10
PQL 75 90 75 91 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH SOME CONVECTION ERUPTING
ON GULF BREEZE ADVANCEMENT IN MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WENT CLOSE TO
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE TO TIME LIKELY CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS AT TERMINALS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR 2-3 HOUR
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...PRIMARILY WITH THE EARLIER ONSET CELLS...THOUGH OTHERS MAY
PULSE TO THESE LEVELS WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. 24/RR
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA FRI EVENING...WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM EVEN IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE KINEMATICS WILL BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORM WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OF ONLY 25-30KT AT 500MB. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR INSOLATION DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
WEAK N-NE FLOW...HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EVENING FOR
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY...AND IT MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
TEMPS IN THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +17C. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
MINIMAL SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA BEING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE FROPA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE MONDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...THERE WILL BE
LIKELY AMPLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY ANOTHER
COOL DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND +6C
WITH N-NE WINDS. MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO LAST TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH RISES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AT
KCMX LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KSAW FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER
OUT OF THE TAF THROUGH 18Z FRI WITH LOW PROBABILITY AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXTENDED PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI...FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA MOVING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS SHOW NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SE FM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS INDICATE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO WELL AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH
OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
PASSAGE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON
FCST DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS ECMWF AND GEM-NH INDICATE MLCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE THE NAM SHOWS INLAND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITHOUT REALLY A
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION...SUSPECT NAM AND GFS SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ARE OVERDONE THUS LEADING TO INFLATED
INSTABILITY VALUES. GIVEN PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO TRUST LOWER GEM-NH
AND ECMWF VALUES MORE. NEVERTHELESS WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF
SCENARIOS...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING ESEPCIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOWER CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING FRI EVENING CONVECTION
ENDS WITH EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS MODELS
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS. LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MININAL AND
CONFINED TO WI BORDER COUNTIES IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL AS MID-LVLS OFF
FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY 500-1000 J/KG BUT THAT`S ONLY BECAUSE FCST DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AGAIN THESE DEWPOINTS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN
PATTERN WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MID-LVL RDGG AND LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA AS DEPICTED BY MODELS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FCST PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POP FCST. MOST OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST LATE MON EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SO EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO END
BY THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FM THE PLAINS. SOME OF MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTED ANY PCPN. TUESDAY COULD BE CHILLY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND PASSAGE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH (WITH TEMPS 6-8C)
EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
RETURN SSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RDG BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
THERE WL SCT-BKN MID CLDS AFTER THIS EVNG THRU THU AHEAD OF AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LLVLS WL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MILD SUMMER WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM ON SATURDAY ALONG U.S.-10 AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DEALING
WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
INTO MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS VS. THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN
PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
ACROSS THE NW WHERE THE COOLER AIR OFF OF THE LAKE IS NOT ALLOWING
THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW FOR THE CLEARING LINE
ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE THROUGH THERE.
AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN ALMOST
OVERHEAD BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN RIDGE AND WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE BEING BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
I AM LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NEAR
ROUTE 10 WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH IS THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. I
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
AN ISSUE THOUGH.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS A REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK
THAT FORCES MOST OF THE JET ENERGY OVER THE TOP WITH MEANS IT HAS TO
GO THROUGH THE ARCTIC TO GET HERE. THAT RESULTS IN A STRONGLY
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT CREATES A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THESE SYSTEM AND THAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A REX BLOCK...I COULD SEE SLOWING DOWN EVEN MORE THAT
WE ARE NOW SHOWING. IN ANY EVENT THIS WILL BE POLAR AIR MIXING WITH
TROPICAL AIR...WHEN THIS DOES FINALLY HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
STORMS.
A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND NUDGES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ON THAT
WEAK FRONT NEAR ROUTE 10 SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS
THERE.
THE 500 HEIGHTS...1000/850 THICKNESS TOOLS...1000/925 MB THICKNESS
TOOLS ALL TELL ME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S THIS WEEKEND...IF
NOT WARMER. I INCREASED THE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREE SAT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.
THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
WE WILL BE TAKING DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE COME
DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE WIND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KNOTS MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.
THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.
CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.
SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.
THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.
THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SHORTWAVES IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU AND 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WHICH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA INTO FRI NIGHT.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO PUT IN
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AS A FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD COME INTO PLAY AND KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DURING THE STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
HAVING A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEN AND THEN
CARRY THIS OVER TO FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN FOR WHEN FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z SAT WITH A STRONG AND BROAD TROUGH OVER SW CANADA
THAT IS TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS
ALSO A DIEING SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE U.P. ON SATURDAY AS DEPICTED
BY THE MANUAL PROGS AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FOR
LAKE BREEZE PRONE AREAS. THE TROUGH IN SW CANADA MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z SUN AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND THEN WITH TROUGHING STILL OVER THE AREA
FOR TUE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN LAKE BREEZE ZONES STILL LOOKS LIKE A
POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
AS HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VERY
CLOSE TO KSAW...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY HALT THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING...RESULTING
IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KSAW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IF CLOUDS DO
LINGER LONGER...THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BACK.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
AS HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VERY
CLOSE TO KSAW...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY HALT THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING...RESULTING
IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KSAW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IF CLOUDS DO
LINGER LONGER...THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BACK.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MN PORTION OF THE AREA.
SOME CHANCE OF FOG FORMING INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD ANY OF THIS WOULD BE
SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT. MID CLOUDS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EXITING TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LOOKS DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST ONCE
AGAIN. WILL KEEP WESTERN TAFS DRY FOR NOW...AND LOWER CEILINGS A
BIT BUT REMAIN VFR. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AOB 10KTS DURING
THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR WEST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CHANGES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. ONLY CONCERN IS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN
MN...POSSIBLY GRAZING ST. CLOUD FROM THE WEST. STILL...CEILINGS
AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST OR ESE.
KMSP...EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE METRO AS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPS US STAY DRY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MN TONIGHT...THE TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KMSP...
QUIET WEATHER WITH NO LOW CLOUDS AND OR VIS RESTRICTION EXPECTED
AT MSP FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
950 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...THOUGHT THE RAIN COULD BE REMOVED BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE OTHER NORTHERN TIER. DID NOT CHANGE THE
POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 9Z AND GENERALLY IMPACT THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR...MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE HRRR BARELY BRINGS THE
LINE OF STORMS INTO THE CWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND...SO TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. TWEAKED THE VALUES IN A FEW SPOTS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10KTS AT MOST SITES. PUT IN VCTS/SHRA
GENERALLY FROM 9-15Z FOR GLH..GWO AND GTR. MODEL SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ALSO...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES FROM 12-14 KTS AND MAYBE MORE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN IN THE MORNING...A BREAK
IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE RAIN IN THE EVENING. CEILINGS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 89 72 86 / 9 12 54 67
MERIDIAN 73 92 70 87 / 10 10 62 55
VICKSBURG 73 87 72 86 / 9 19 62 65
HATTIESBURG 74 93 74 90 / 8 8 28 44
NATCHEZ 74 89 74 87 / 8 18 35 64
GREENVILLE 74 87 72 85 / 53 44 76 66
GREENWOOD 73 87 71 83 / 54 44 75 63
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
Tonight:
Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.
Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.
Thursday - Friday:
The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.
4th of July Weekend:
Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.
Monday - Wednesday:
The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A frontal boundary extends east from north central KS through west
central MO, bisecting the KC Metro with KMCI north of the front. This
boundary will sink slowly south through this evening. Still expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms to form late this afternoon
over east central KS through west central MO. Strong storms and heavy
rains possible. This activity is expected to congeal into a complex
of storms that tracks southeast into central MO tonight. KSTJ could
remain dry through the forecast. The rain threat will end from north
to south late this evening with MVFR ceilings overspreading the
region.
Operational and short range models fog but temperature/dewpoint
spread looks too large to support it. Will leave out of the terminals
for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
038>040-044>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
115 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.
AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.
POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. MODELS FOCUS MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEB AND DID INCLUDE A PROB GROUP IN THE KLBF TAF. LESS
CONFIDENCE IMPACT AT KVTN SO HAVE VCTS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.
AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.
POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. FOG AND SMOKE HAS REDUCED VSBY
TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR BY 15Z.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS WY AND SRN ALBERTA
SHOULD DROP THROUGH NEB SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM COVERAGE COULD BECOME LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB
06Z-12Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.
AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.
POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...THERE IS A LINGERING THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL
HANDLE THE MENTION WITH A VCTS GROUP THROUGH 09Z AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL...AND THROUGH 12Z FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL MAKE IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KTS WEDS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS WEDS EVE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL
CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HWY 70
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MUGGY LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
25-30 AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 5 TO 7 FEET
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF THE COAST LATE
THIS EVE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR RUBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WSW REACHES THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS BEGUN TO BACK
OFF...SHOWING LESS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF RENEWED CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INLAND.
ALONG THE COAST...HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY EXITS OR JUST SLOWLY DISSIPATES IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT...BUT
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AND EXPAND. THUS...IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EVEN AFTER THE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.
THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LOWER TO MID
70S.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GAUGE IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
BRING SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...FURTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST JETTING...WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN RAISED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY. INIT
SHRT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE N HAS NOT SPARKED ANY SHRA/TSRA
ALONG CST YET...STILL COULD SEE SOME FORM THRU DAYBREAK BUT
STARTING LOOK LIKE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER CSTL WTRS. LATER TODAYS
MDLS...ESPCLY GFS SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE W.
THIS SHLD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA THREAT...HOWEVER WITH HEATING WILL KEEP
ISOLD POP ALL AREAS THIS AFTN BUT THINK VAST MJRTY OF LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPR 80S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...FAIRLY QUIET WX SHLD CONT AS AXIS OF MID LVL
DRIER AIR SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE W LATE BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR
NOW. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR
70S CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM WED...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...01/00ZZ MODEL SUITE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF EASTERN CONUS
LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHANCE COAST AS INC PWS AND GOOD MID AND
UPR SUPPORT COMBINE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN
THE DAY. HAVE LINGERED THE HIGH POPS INTO THE EVENING AND SHIFTED
TOWARDS THE COAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW ACTING TO KEEP PRECIP ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST...AND BULK SHEAR IS
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON MAXING
OUT LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. INCREASING SRLY 850MB FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH STALLED
LOW LEVEL SFC BOUNDARY OVER E NC. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS
INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS
EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S AND KEEP AFTERNOON
CAPES RELATIVELY LOW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS. AGAIN
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MARGINAL
SEVERE PARAMETERS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...THOUGH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLN WHICH IS MORE ISO TO SCT IN NATURE WITH
PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50 POPS ATTM DUE
TO DAYS 5-7 FORECAST PERIODS AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN.
NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 90 DURING THE DAY AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN THRU DAYBREAK IS POSS OF SOME
LOWER CIGS SPREADING IN FROM THE W...ESPCLY SW TIER. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE LOWER ST ON SATL BUT APPEARS TO BE
AN AREA SPREADING NE FROM SC. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOWER CIGS REACHING
SRN TIER LATER BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR ALL NIGHT SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
REACHING TERMINALS AND DID NOT ADD TO FCST. IF WE DO GET LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY MID MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCT CU EXPECTED. CONT VFR TONIGHT...AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POSS OF SOME ST BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO FCST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM WED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY LATE THUR THROUGH
FRIDAY) WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING
HEAVY RAIN EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
10-15 KNOTS BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS
OF FOG EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT
RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...STRONGER SW WINDS ARE FCST TO GRAD SUBSIDE THRU
DAYBREAK HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS.
WILL LIKELY END SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND WITH NEXT FCST PKG AND
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT S OF OCRACOKE LATER THIS MORN
SO WILL LIKELY DROP SCA FOR THAT SECTION LATER AS WELL. SW WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
YDAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SW WINDS
WILL AGAIN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVER CNTRL WTRS WITH SCA CONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM WED...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INC TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT OR HIGH ON THUR AS SW GRADIENT INCREASES...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BUILD OR MAINTAIN 6 TO 7 FT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
THE PAMLICO SOUND ON THUR. LINGERING 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR THE OREGON INLET TO CAPE
LOOKOUT SECTION.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY. INIT
SHRT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE N HAS NOT SPARKED ANY
SHRA/TSRA ALONG CST YET...STILL COULD SEE SOME FORM THRU DAYBREAK
BUT STARTING LOOK LIKE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER CSTL WTRS. LATER
TODAYS MDLS...ESPCLY GFS SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR SPREADING IN FROM
THE W. THIS SHLD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA THREAT...HOWEVER WITH HEATING
WILL KEEP ISOLD POP ALL AREAS THIS AFTN BUT THINK VAST MJRTY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND
TO UPR 80S BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...FAIRLY QUIET WX SHLD CONT AS AXIS OF MID LVL
DRIER AIR SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE W LATE BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR
NOW. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S INLAND TO
UPR 70S CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD
UPPER TROF SHARPENS AT TIMES AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH TO
THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN THRU DAYBREAK IS POSS OF SOME
LOWER CIGS SPREADING IN FROM THE W...ESPCLY SW TIER. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE LOWER ST ON SATL BUT APPEARS TO BE
AN AREA SPREADING NE FROM SC. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOWER CIGS REACHING
SRN TIER LATER BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR ALL NIGHT SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
REACHING TERMINALS AND DID NOT ADD TO FCST. IF WE DO GET LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY MID MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCT CU EXPECTED. CONT VFR TONIGHT...AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POSS OF SOME ST BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO FCST.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL 4 TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15
KNOTS BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...STRONGER SW WINDS ARE FCST TO GRAD SUBSIDE THRU
DAYBREAK HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS.
WILL LIKELY END SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND WITH NEXT FCST PKG AND
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT S OF OCRACOKE LATER THIS MORN
SO WILL LIKELY DROP SCA FOR THAT SECTION LATER AS WELL. SW WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
YDAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SW WINDS
WILL AGAIN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVER CNTRL WTRS WITH SCA CONT.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4-6 FOOT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1211 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DIMINISHED AS APPROACHED
ERN NC AND NOW JUST HAVE LEFT OVER DEBRIS TYPE SHRA OVER FAR NW
TIER. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK INSTAB...ESPCLY CST AND SHRT WAVE
CROSSING TO THE N SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT POP IN NEXT FEW HRS ALL
AREAS THEN CST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 DEEP INLAND TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES. GUSTY SW WINDS CNTRL/SRN BEACHES SHLD DIMINISH
A BIT LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING SHORT WAVE PASSAGE TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE CANT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WED AFTN SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP, ALTHO MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS MAINLY
LOWS 90S WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD
UPPER TROF SHARPENS AT TIMES AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH TO
THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HIGH LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER
REGION CURRENTLY BUT THESE SHLD DIMINISH LATER. HRRR SHOWS SOME
LOWER CIGS APPROACHING CSTL PLAIN TWRD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY
KEEPS IT JUST W OF TAFS AND WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH
WILL NOT HAVE ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN. MDLS SHOW LIMITED IF ANY
CONVECTION TODAY SO MAINLY EXPECTING SOME SCT CU.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4
TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...NO CHANGES AS GUSTY WINDS CONT OVER CNTRL WTRS
AND PAMLICO SOUND...THESE WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
SO SCA WILL END PAMLICO LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH CONT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS...POSS SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KT DURING EVENING. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
CNTRL WTRS TONIGHT AND CONT SCA FROM LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET THRU
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4-6 FOOT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/BTC/HSA/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT. SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL DEPICT INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SO KEPT
MENTION OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.
OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SMOKE NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS IN PAST DAYS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER A BIT MORE. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS. NEAREST ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN STILL IN N CENTRAL MT SO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS. TRIMMED
BACK POPS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.
OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
DENSE FOG AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAMPER VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND
KISN. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.
LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. DID BRING FOG TO LNS A
LITTLE FASTER...GIVEN CURRENT OB. LNS ALSO HAD A SHOWER
EARLIER.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.
PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.
PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.
PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.
PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 PM EDT UPDATE...SOME LIGHT NON-THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
ENTERED INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE
OUT WEST WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...PER HRRR
GUIDANCE AND RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHER ASPECTS OF FORECAST ARE ON
TARGET.
800 PM EDT UPDATE...AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR OF SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. RADAR GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME THUNDERSHOWERS TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF THE CWA WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASED POPS UNTIL 10Z FOLLOWING HRRR
GUIDANCE.
515 PM EDT UPDATE...MOST SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN. MADE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS...NEGATIVE RADAR TRENDS...AND SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR TO KEEP
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO UPDATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO CONSIDERABLE RAIN COOLING IN SOME AREAS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.
AS OF 245 PM EDT...AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WORKING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA HAS
ENCOUNTERED INCREASED INSTABILITY...WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA THIS AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE HIGHER POPS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR CONVECTION COMING
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS IS
POSSIBLY JUST THE FIRST WAVE OF MANY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
YET MORE VORTICITY LOBES WILL CROSS THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO
THE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY
850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS
THE 850 MB LOW CENTER DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY SOLIDLY WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE
LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ANTICIPATE A
SMALLER THAN USUAL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/DEBRIS...AND WILL NEED TO SHOTGUN HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND MOIST PROFILES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
WITH MIXING AGAIN ON FRI AFTN. HEAVY RAIN WILL POSE A LOCALIZED
HYDRO THREAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT TRAINING OCCURS...WITH THE SW
MTNS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN MTNS BUT RATES WILL BE BETTER IN MORE UNSTABLE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UNSEASONABLY
HIGH PWATS (GENERALLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO) THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE NOCTURNAL
HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE (POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW) NEARS
THE AREA. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL AREAS...
MAINLY FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY
LOCALIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING
ELEVATED... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS...WHERE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP RATES. ANTECEDENT CONDITION WILL PROBABLY
ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z MONDAY WITH THE
AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED POPS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME RELATIVE SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DIURNAL POPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS. ON
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND PWATS CLIMB BACK OVER 2 INCHES.
POPS ARE THEREFORE ABOVE CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND DO
NOT WANE MUCH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SPECTACULAR FOR
ANY DAY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...BUT PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MEAN THAT 7-DAY QPF
TOTALS BEAR WATCHING.
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE...MOIST PROFILES
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
CLIMO. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD WELL
AWAY FROM THE AERODROME...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CLOUDS
TO 4000 AND SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MIGHT
AFFECT THE SITE WOULD BE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXISTS SOUTH OF KGSP...BUT AT THE MOMENT
NO PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM ANY
SHORTWAVE OR OTHER DYNAMICAL ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...MAIN POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WOULD BE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN LOW-LYING MOUNTAINOUS AREAS DUE TO
CONTINUED MOIST AIR MASS.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 80% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 63% MED 76% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 84% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 83% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 95% HIGH 84% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG/WJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR OF SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. RADAR GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME THUNDERSHOWERS TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF THE CWA WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASED POPS UNTIL 10Z FOLLOWING HRRR
GUIDANCE.
515 PM EDT UPDATE...MOST SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN. MADE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS...NEGATIVE RADAR TRENDS...AND SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR TO KEEP
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO UPDATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO CONSIDERABLE RAIN COOLING IN SOME AREAS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.
AS OF 245 PM EDT...AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WORKING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA HAS
ENCOUNTERED INCREASED INSTABILITY...WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA THIS AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE HIGHER POPS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR CONVECTION COMING
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS IS
POSSIBLY JUST THE FIRST WAVE OF MANY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
YET MORE VORTICITY LOBES WILL CROSS THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO
THE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY
850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS
THE 850 MB LOW CENTER DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY SOLIDLY WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE
LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ANTICIPATE A
SMALLER THAN USUAL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/DEBRIS...AND WILL NEED TO SHOTGUN HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND MOIST PROFILES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
WITH MIXING AGAIN ON FRI AFTN. HEAVY RAIN WILL POSE A LOCALIZED
HYDRO THREAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT TRAINING OCCURS...WITH THE SW
MTNS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN MTNS BUT RATES WILL BE BETTER IN MORE UNSTABLE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UNSEASONABLY
HIGH PWATS (GENERALLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO) THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE NOCTURNAL
HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE (POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW) NEARS
THE AREA. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL AREAS...
MAINLY FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY
LOCALIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING
ELEVATED... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS...WHERE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP RATES. ANTECEDENT CONDITION WILL PROBABLY
ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z MONDAY WITH THE
AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED POPS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME RELATIVE SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DIURNAL POPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS. ON
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND PWATS CLIMB BACK OVER 2 INCHES.
POPS ARE THEREFORE ABOVE CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND DO
NOT WANE MUCH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SPECTACULAR FOR
ANY DAY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...BUT PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MEAN THAT 7-DAY QPF
TOTALS BEAR WATCHING.
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE...MOIST PROFILES
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
CLIMO. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD WELL
AWAY FROM THE AERODROME...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CLOUDS
TO 4000 AND SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MIGHT
AFFECT THE SITE WOULD BE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SOME LIGHT RAIN EXISTS SOUTH OF KGSP...BUT AT THE MOMENT
NO PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM ANY
SHORTWAVE OR OTHER DYNAMICAL ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...MAIN POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WOULD BE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN LOW-LYING MOUNTAINOUS AREAS DUE TO
CONTINUED MOIST AIR MASS.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 81% LOW 0%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 89% LOW 0%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 70% MED 77% LOW 0%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 90% MED 74% LOW 0%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 85% LOW 0%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 92% LOW 0%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG/WJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRIGGERING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT5:15PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE EXTENT MAY BE
LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES DECLINE DIURNALLY AS PRECIP. MOVES INTO HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR. HRRR GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG AS IT HAS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN NOW OBSERVED...BUT THE BASIC TREND OF ESE
MOVEMENT AND DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER 10PM SEEMS REASONABLE...AND
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER CAMS. LATEST NEAR TERM POPS REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND THROUGH 6Z.
AT 215 PM...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS AT THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT. CAPES
OVER EASTERN TN ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000J SO IT IS MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A WATCH IN PLACE ABUTTING OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO OUR NE GA...WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOME OF OUR NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY <1000J OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE AROUND 60...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR THERE. I HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 23Z AND MOVING EASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NC BORDER COUNTIES AND THEN LIKELY
AS FAR EAST AS I-26. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THU IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/QPF. NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTH GA/SE TN LATE TONIGHT APPARENTLY USING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM TODAY`S MCS AS A TRIGGER. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ENHANCED QPF. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE NAM AND
INCREASE POPS LATE TONIGHT WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HENCE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ON THU. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WIND AND
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEKS...INVERTED-V BELOW H8...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC POPS EAST.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND EARLY ONSET OF
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ON SAT...4TH OF JULY...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE VIRGINAS. BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS
WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATX REGION TO NORTHERN MS/AL BY SUNRISE SAT.
12Z NAM AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE
CONVECTION 12Z SAT. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE CONVECTION
EAST...REACHING THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER WITH 30 TO 40 POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO
THE U80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AMID
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THOUGH A LACK OF DISCERNIBLE UPPER FORCING OVER THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SHOULD KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. POPS WILL THEREFORE
BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER HIGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SAME TIME...THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST IN THE TIMING OF SOME OF THESE
FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOURCES OF WEAK FORCING ABOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THEREFORE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. PROFILES ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AND THOUGH NO DAY STANDS OUT AS HAVING ESPECIALLY HIGH
QPF...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WHOLE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE PERIOD COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LACK OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT TENDENCIES LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS STAYING NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE HELD ONTO A
TEMPO TSRA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN DEFERENCE TO PERSISTENT HRRR
FORECAST OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CAPE GRADIENT ALONG I-77
CORRIDOR. ALSO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN WILL REACH WESTERNNC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...SOME SHRA MY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD CIRCA MIDNIGHT
OR SO. GENERALLY VFR. COULD SEE SOME MVFR THU AM...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...MAIN CONCERNC ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. LOOKS LIKE THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN WILL REACH WESTERN NC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TEMPO
TSRA AT KAND...KGMU...KGSP AND KAVL. OTHERSISE...JUST SOME WIDELY
SCT TSRA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING TO MENTION
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 85% MED 76%
KAVL HIGH 98% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KHKY HIGH 85% MED 70% HIGH 100% MED 68%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 85% MED 78%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 85% MED 78%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1230 PM...RADAR IS STILL QUITE WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RETURNS
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIP FROM WEAKENING MCS IS ENTERING
CENTRAL TN. HOWEVER...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO STILL
EVIDENT AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE TRACK WILL BRING IT
INTO THE SW/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BASED ON 12Z MODELS AND HRRR TRENDS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL INDEED REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE SEVERE IN NATURE. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO
CATEGORICAL/NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN ALLOW PRECIP TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY ETC. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS EASTWARD
TO ABOUT I-26 AND THEN ALLOW TO DISSIPATE. WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP
LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS MAY MAKE A RUN AT MOUNTAINS.
DECREASED INSOLATION DUE TO THE SMOKE IS KEEPING A LID ON TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
CONSSHORT.
AT 925 AM...ADJUSTED PRIMARILY THE POP AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IS APPARENT ON THE VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PROBABLY AP AROUND 12KFT OR SO.
NOTHING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME SCT CELLS
SHOWING UP ON THE MRX RADAR OVER EASTERN TN. THOSE CELLS WERE MOVING
EAST AND SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE THERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A VORT LOBE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 06Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR BRING THE REMNANTS
OF THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS NOT BUYING INTO THAT ANTICIPATING IT WILL DISSIPATE AND
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOWS THAT PERHAPS WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING IN TN. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE WHEN 12Z DATA ARRIVES.
1000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.
AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...JULY KICKS OFF WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
PATTER FEATURING AND EASTERN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE. ONE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE TROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER
DIVES INTO IT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY..FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
ONE THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL TO OUR NORTH
TODAY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR EAST. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...HOWEVER SHEAR
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED...AND MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. STEERING FLOW WILL
KEEPS CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BLUE
RIDGE...LIMITING UPLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF FLATTENING OUT TO OUR WEST AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM LIFTING NE WHILE NUMEROUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A BROAD PLUME OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LEE TROFFING EXPECTED TO SET UP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
POPS STEADILY RAMP UP THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
CATEGORICAL VALUES CARRIED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION AND
LIKELY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. SPC STILL HAS OUR CWFA IN THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NOW INCLUDING OUR
WESTERN CORNER...AS OF THEIR MOST RECENT UPDATE THIS MORNING.
MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SOME DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
BOTH THURS AND FRI. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST
AREA WELL INTO FRI AS A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FRI
MORNING. THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWFA LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER
LEE TROF DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. PW VALUES
REMAIN HIGH THRU MOST OF THE SHORT TERM...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY AND START OUT JUST BELOW CLIMO ON
THURS. THEY WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND END
UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS
OUT OVER THE SE REGION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES ON SAT AND INTO SUN WITH A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE SUN/EARLY MON. AFTER THIS FEATURE
LIFTS TO THE NE ON MON...HEIGHTS REBOUND AGAIN AND THE PATTERN
REMAINS FLAT THRU DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING SWLY LOW LVL FLOW.
THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK LEE TROFFING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT LIVED MESO LOWS ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST PW VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR
SAT AND SUN. TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON SAT AND WARM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TOPPING OUT
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR CIGS DEVELOPED AT AIRFIELD IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SURROUNDING SITES. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE FORECASTS A VERY SHORT
DURATION LIFR EVENT. HENCE...WILL DISSIPATE LOW CIGS BY 14Z.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK PROMISING FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS HEATING PROMOTES INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VSBY AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT WITH MVFR VSBY AT MOST SURROUNDING SITES.
ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS DAYBREAK MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KAND...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
MARGINAL. A LIFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL GIVEN THE CURRENT FEW002
THERE. CIGS LOOK LESS LIKELY AT FOOTHILL SITES AS NO CLOUD COVER IS
OBSERVED THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOW VFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS
GOING IN EARNEST...THAT TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATE. WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE SW...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP VALLEY FORM THE NW. ON THURSDAY MORNING GUIDANCE HITS
KAVL WITH DAYBREAK MVFR FOG...AND KHKY WITH LOW VFR FOG.
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 925 AM...ADJUSTED PRIMARILY THE POP AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IS APPARENT ON THE VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PROBABLY AP AROUND 12KFT OR SO.
NOTHING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME SCT CELLS
SHOWING UP ON THE MRX RADAR OVER EASTERN TN. THOSE CELLS WERE MOVING
EAST AND SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE THERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A VORT LOBE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 06Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR BRING THE REMNANTS
OF THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS NOT BUYING INTO THAT ANTICIPATING IT WILL DISSIPATE AND
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOWS THAT PERHAPS WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING IN TN. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE WHEN 12Z DATA ARRIVES.
1000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.
AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...JULY KICKS OFF WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
PATTER FEATURING AND EASTERN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE. ONE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE TROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER
DIVES INTO IT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY..FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
ONE THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL TO OUR NORTH
TODAY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR EAST. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...HOWEVER SHEAR
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED...AND MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. STEERING FLOW WILL
KEEPS CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BLUE
RIDGE...LIMITING UPLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF FLATTENING OUT TO OUR WEST AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM LIFTING NE WHILE NUMEROUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A BROAD PLUME OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LEE TROFFING EXPECTED TO SET UP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
POPS STEADILY RAMP UP THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
CATEGORICAL VALUES CARRIED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION AND
LIKELY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. SPC STILL HAS OUR CWFA IN THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NOW INCLUDING OUR
WESTERN CORNER...AS OF THEIR MOST RECENT UPDATE THIS MORNING.
MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SOME DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
BOTH THURS AND FRI. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST
AREA WELL INTO FRI AS A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FRI
MORNING. THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWFA LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER
LEE TROF DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. PW VALUES
REMAIN HIGH THRU MOST OF THE SHORT TERM...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY AND START OUT JUST BELOW CLIMO ON
THURS. THEY WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND END
UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS
OUT OVER THE SE REGION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES ON SAT AND INTO SUN WITH A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE SUN/EARLY MON. AFTER THIS FEATURE
LIFTS TO THE NE ON MON...HEIGHTS REBOUND AGAIN AND THE PATTERN
REMAINS FLAT THRU DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING SWLY LOW LVL FLOW.
THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK LEE TROFFING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT LIVED MESO LOWS ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST PW VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR
SAT AND SUN. TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON SAT AND WARM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TOPPING OUT
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR CIGS DEVELOPED AT AIRFIELD IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SURROUNDING SITES. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE FORECASTS A VERY SHORT
DURATION LIFR EVENT. HENCE...WILL DISSIPATE LOW CIGS BY 14Z.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK PROMISING FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS HEATING PROMOTES INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VSBY AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT WITH MVFR VSBY AT MOST SURROUNDING SITES.
ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS DAYBREAK MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KAND...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
MARGINAL. A LIFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL GIVEN THE CURRENT FEW002
THERE. CIGS LOOK LESS LIKELY AT FOOTHILL SITES AS NO CLOUD COVER IS
OBSERVED THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOW VFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS
GOING IN EARNEST...THAT TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATE. WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE SW...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP VALLEY FORM THE NW. ON THURSDAY MORNING GUIDANCE HITS
KAVL WITH DAYBREAK MVFR FOG...AND KHKY WITH LOW VFR FOG.
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT/LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF PERIOD LEADING TO VARYING
FLIGHT RULES. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HRRR HAS CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT.
WILL SEE IF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAN HOLD CONVECTION TOGETHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT IN CIGS OVER THE TAF PERIOD BUT AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES RETURN AROUND 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AGAIN TOMORROW AROUND THE 5-10 KT
RANGE.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 70 80 67 81 / 70 60 50 50
CLARKSVILLE 68 79 66 80 / 40 60 40 50
CROSSVILLE 66 76 66 75 / 80 70 60 60
COLUMBIA 71 80 68 79 / 80 60 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 72 79 68 79 / 80 60 60 60
WAVERLY 69 79 68 79 / 40 70 50 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
AS OF 945 AM ACROSS THE REGION...A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS DEPICT THE COMPLEX MAINTAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THOSE AREAS OF WEST TN NEAREST THE TN RIVER...AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A HINDRANCE TO DECENT DAYTIME HEATING TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TN AND EAST AR...WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEING ON
TRACK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE THE
LOWEST CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO POPS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG I-70 IN MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR KANSAS CITY AND BEING FED BY A 35 KT
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...AS OF 4 AM CDT THE MID SOUTH IS
RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
NORTH OF I-44 IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS
REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS MCS MAY WEAKEN AS IT COMES INTO
THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 3000-4000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40
KTS...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT WORKED OVER INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A 40 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY. FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
POSE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH.
LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
PRODUCING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO SOME LINGERING TIMING/COVERAGE
CONCERNS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO POSE A THREAT
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...
CJC
&&
.AVIATON...
12Z TAFS
A GRADUALLY TSRA COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MO WAS MOVING SE AT
1145Z. A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION /MCV/ FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN LATER THIS MORNING...HELPING
TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSRA TOWARD MIDDAY. HRRR TAKES THIS
ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO MS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE MCV ON KSGF
RADAR.
TIMING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TSRA COMPLEXES CAN BE CHALLENGING. WITH
THAT SAID...06Z NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER TSRA COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE MIDSOUTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY...AFFECTING JBR AND POSSIBLY
THE OUTBOUND MEM CARGO PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG I-70 IN MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR KANSAS CITY AND BEING FED BY A 35 KT
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...AS OF 4 AM CDT THE MID SOUTH IS
RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
NORTH OF I-44 IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS
REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS MCS MAY WEAKEN AS IT COMES INTO
THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 3000-4000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40
KTS...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT WORKED OVER INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A 40 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY. FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
POSE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH.
LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
PRODUCING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO SOME LINGERING TIMING/COVERAGE
CONCERNS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO POSE A THREAT
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
A GRADUALLY TSRA COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MO WAS MOVING SE AT
1145Z. A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION /MCV/ FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN LATER THIS MORNING...HELPING
TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSRA TOWARD MIDDAY. HRRR TAKES THIS
ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO MS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE MCV ON KSGF
RADAR.
TIMING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TSRA COMPLEXES CAN BE CHALLENGING. WITH
THAT SAID...06Z NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER TSRA COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE MIDSOUTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY...AFFECTING JBR AND POSSIBLY
THE OUTBOUND MEM CARGO PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
845 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 822 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SHOWERS QUITE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM EARLIER WHICH BASICALLY
PUT A CAP ON DEEP INSTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF INSOLATION. EVENING
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN
DEEP CONVECTION THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE OFF TO THE WEST. THUS FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
BANDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPED BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SO CUT BACK
ON POPS TO LOWER CHANCE AT BEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THEN SOME
POSSIBLE SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES BUT IFFY. MOIST ENVIRONMENT UNDER SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD CANOPY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE FOG
ESPCLY EAST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS LONGER. LEFT LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH ONLY ANOTHER CATEGORY OR TWO FALL IN VALUES
EXPECTED UNDER THE SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING SOLAR INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KY/OHIO INTO WV/NRN VA BY AFTERNOON WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN TN. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHO GETS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
AN INCH OR LESS. SINCE WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF
ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS...AND WILL SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING TO THE DIFFICULT FORECAST ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER ACROSS VA/NC
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE UNSURE WHICH SURFACE LOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE
ONE. THE ONE THAT DOES WILL HAVE THE STRONGER STORMS...EITHER ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
OPT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICK AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR OVERALL
COVERAGE...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY. ON SUNDAY...THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW MAY SHIFT EAST AND MERGER WITH THE MID ATLANTIC LOW. THIS
MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
HALF WET WHILE BECOMING RAIN-FREE AND MOST CLOUDY NORTH. WITH RAIN
AND THICK CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE CONVERTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE MODELS...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
WEDGE IN PLAY...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME WEDGED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS...SUPPORTING LIGHT EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AS FAR
WEST AS KBCB.
WHILE CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO HIGH MVFR/VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DURING
THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. ALSO EXPECT POCKETS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP FOG FORMATION LIMITED.
FOR FRIDAY...LOW CEILINGS WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TO RISE TO LOW END VFR. EVEN THEN...SCATTERED MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IMPROVE FURTHER STILL
IF CLOUDS MANAGE TO BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL
HELP THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO
RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
IT APPEARS THAT OBSERVATIONS FROM NON-NWS AWOS SITES ARE COMING
BACK IN...BUT NO OFFICIAL WORD ON IF THE ISSUE IS FINALLY FIXED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION TO ERUPT FROM TRIAD NC AREA NE TO SOUTHSIDE VA. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THE AIRMASS IS STABLE.
THE 16Z HRRR BLENDED WITH THE RAP/NAM SEEM REASONABLE THRU EARLY
EVENING. THIS SOLUTION TAKES SHOWERS EAST AND OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY
00Z...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE WRN OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ESE INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE DAWN. STARTING TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF BLF BY THAT TIME AND TRACK
THE SHOWERS EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA BY 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING...THOUGH SOME MINOR
TRACK DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWER
SWINGS IN. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT THINKING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM OR FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING SOLAR INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KY/OHIO INTO WV/NRN VA BY AFTERNOON WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN TN. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHO GETS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS AN INCH
OR LESS. SINCE WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF ANY
HEAVIER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS...AND WILL SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING TO THE DIFFICULT FORECAST ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER ACROSS VA/NC
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE UNSURE WHICH SURFACE LOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE
ONE. THE ONE THAT DOES WILL HAVE THE STRONGER STORMS...EITHER ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
OPT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICK AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR OVERALL
COVERAGE...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY. ON SUNDAY...THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW MAY SHIFT EAST AND MERGER WITH THE MID ATLANTIC LOW. THIS
MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
HALF WET WHILE BECOMING RAIN-FREE AND MOST CLOUDY NORTH. WITH RAIN
AND THICK CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE CONVERTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE MODELS...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
WEDGE IN PLAY...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME WEDGED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS...SUPPORTING LIGHT EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AS FAR
WEST AS KBCB.
WHILE CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO HIGH MVFR/VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DURING
THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. ALSO EXPECT POCKETS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP FOG FORMATION LIMITED.
FOR FRIDAY...LOW CEILINGS WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TO RISE TO LOW END VFR. EVEN THEN...SCATTERED MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IMPROVE FURTHER STILL
IF CLOUDS MANAGE TO BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL
HELP THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO
RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
IT APPEARS THAT OBSERVATIONS FROM NON-NWS AWOS SITES ARE COMING
BACK IN...BUT NO OFFICIAL WORD ON IF THE ISSUE IS FINALLY FIXED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
ONE MAIN AREA OVER THE NW DRIVEN BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE OTHER OVER THE SE WITH A
IMPULSE ALOFT PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THESE BANDS TO THE NW REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN LINGERING
INSTABILITY OF OVER 1K J/KG ESPCLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET. ALSO EVENING
RNK SOUNDING QUITE UNSTABLE WITHOUT ANY CAPPING SO STILL SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT INTO THE NEW/ROA VALLEYS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THINGS TO FINALLY
FADE. HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS OF MOST CELLS STAYING BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...WENT AHEAD AND LET SEVERE WATCH 377 EXPIRE WITH MOSTLY
ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST. DID BUMP UP POPS TO GO WITH MORE COVERAGE
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY FADING. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED AND MORE
CLEARING TAKES SHAPE LATE.
UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS
SWINGING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WEST FROM WESTERN KY INTO THE
SMOKYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS GIVEN THIS.
MARGINAL RISK OF SVR REMAINS AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA
TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN SCATTERED STORMS...WITH
LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT ONE OF THE
STRONGER WAVES MOVES OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA ALSO
FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET IN
NEW ENGLAND.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING HIGHEST CAPES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...AS PWATS SOAR TO 1.5 TO 2.0" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
NC ON FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH A EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR
WEST AND FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
U.S. UNDER AN UPPER TROF THAT FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE STRONGER AND
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS....BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION...LEAVING GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
RUNNING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES ON NW FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS TO KBCB AND KBLF. KLWB SEEMS TO FIND A WAY TO FOG IN AND WITH
LIGHT FOG ALREADY AT THE STATION AFTER SOME PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...WILL FORECAST LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK THOUGH IF
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS EARLY AND SHUTS OFF THE COOLING THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE. WILL GO WITH MFVR FOG AT KLYH SINCE THEY HAD A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN BUT WILL STAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AT KROA AND KDAN.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA AND HELP GENERATE
SOME VFR CIGS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR LOCATION OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AND SEE IF LATER
MESO MODEL RUNS CAN COME TO A CONSENSUS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...MBS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.
02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.
SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.
FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG WILL
IMPACT THE BOGS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS FOG WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN
03.10Z AND 03.13Z.
OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF SE WY AT THIS TIME
WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING IMPULSE IN THE UPPER FLOW.
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE IMPULSE MOVES BY AND HAVE
TAILORED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE CWA UNDER A NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT LEAVING A MODEST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING/MOVING OUT. SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SLIPS EASTWARD
FRIDAY REDUCING THE UPSLOPE FLOW BUT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY MORE OVER SE WY HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PRECIP CHANCES JUST
ABOUT EVERYDAY.
STARTING OFF SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A 591DM HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA. PERHAPS OUR DRIEST
DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OUT
WEST.
STRONG AND ABNORMALLY COOL SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF ALBERTA PROVINCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM +20C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...TO +12C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY +8C MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR ON SOLUTIONS FOR
THE FRONT TIMING. PRETTY STRONG 850MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OUT
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD BE SEEING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS ECMWF 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN LIKELY MONDAY WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDFLOW. FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP CONVECTIVE...BUT IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO SWITCH TO STRATIFORM IN
LATER FORECASTS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE MONSOON SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY ON INTO THE WEEK. NOT REALLY LIKING THE
SETUP OF THE 500MB HIGH THOUGH...ITS NOT IN THE RIGHT LOCATION FOR
US TO GET WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ON EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE BEFORE UPPING POPS FURTHER.
ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN
WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE OUR NEXT SEVERE CONVECTIVE
EVENT AS 70KT JET MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE LFQ DYNAMICS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING ON CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE ALL NIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR PANHANDLE LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE. EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
NO CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FUELS GREEN AND
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. THERE WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS BUT DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED.
WETTING RAINS LIKELY WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION DEPICTED THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE AZ/NV BORDER. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CENTER. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE PRODUCED ISOLATED TSTORM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WAS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHWEST
ALBERTA. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TREK SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN NE WILL
ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST WY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM WESTERN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE LARAMIE RANGE LATER TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE FOCI FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TSTORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE PROGGING
35-45 KT SHEAR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WITH 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SBCAPE VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ORGANIZED
TSTORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY. IT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER JET PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY FROM TODAY`S HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO HEAD EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAP THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED TSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED NR THE 4-CORNERS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND MAINTAIN SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE 4TH. THESE
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE THE NRN STREAM JET AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL RACE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
SUNDAY`S FROPA TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS INSTABILITY
WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP MODE BECOMES STRATIFORMED IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPING POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS UNLESS ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS SUSTAINABLE. FOR NOW...LOOKS TO BE A LOW CLOUD/FOG ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EVENT. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT HAVE
STEERED RAIN CHANCES UP ACCORDINGLY. THE ERN PLAINS TURN MORE
STABLE ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE INSTABILITY POOL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE STALLED FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. SO CONFINED THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS RRQ OF THE
NRN STREAM JET REMAINS OVR THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THRU MONDAY...WITH 70S EXPECTED
MOST LOCALES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TUE-WED AS THE STALLED
FRONT WASHES OUT AND WAA RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING ON CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE ALL NIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR PANHANDLE LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE. EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT STALLED
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING COMBINED WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO
THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10 TO
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1226 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPRELLE CREEK AND WINDY PEAK
SNOTELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT OUTSIDE THIS AREA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ECHOES
ARE ELEVATED. 1PM HUMIDITY AT CHEYENNE AT 19 PERCENT...DOUGLAS AT
24 PERCENT...LARAMIE 21 PERCENT...SO THESE ECHOES ARE GOING TO
TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO REACH THE GROUND. SO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500J/KG
CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING. NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE PANHANDLE
JUST LOST THEIR CAP OUT THAT WAY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG.
JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EXISTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
STILL HOLDING GOOD UP THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR SHOWS INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. OVERALL
THOUGH...DO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE ECMWF. GFS HAS FRONT FURTHER EAST
IN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...DI NOT CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING FRONT LIFTING ENE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWING PWATS ALMOST TO 1.3 INCHES
WITH LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. GOOD NEWS IS FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...SO DO THINK WE ARE OK FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DURING THAT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SW CONUS THIS PERIOD
WITH A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
BRINGING A MODEST COOL DOWN INTO MONDAY BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND
TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD HELP PCPN CHANCES
MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 07Z FOR
SIDNEY TAF SITES...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...TURBULENCE AND MVFR.
VFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WYOMING TAF SITES PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS AND MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE SEEING WETTING RAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SHOWERS TO REACH
THE GROUND AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES QUITE LOW. EVENTUALLY
THOUGH...MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND FUELS ARE GREEN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SAR
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BY NEXT WEEK...DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT HAVE EXPANDED WEST AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER PARTS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SOUTH TO COOLIDGE AND
CASA GRANDE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WERE UNEXPECTED
AND THE MECHANISM FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT WAS HARD TO DISCERN...
ALTHOUGH ITS RELATED TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 40-50 KNOT 300-250 MB
SOUTHEASTERLY JETSTREAM EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF AZ. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 07Z SHWR DEVELOPMENT...
AND FORECASTS IT TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AND CASA
GRANDE AREAS...OR THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 16Z FRI.
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24. I.E...A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ZONE 24.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
FAR NORTHEAST AZ FRIDAY MORNING...TO THE VICINITY OF EL PASO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN VEERS THE BELT OF UNUSUALLY STRONG 300/250 MB
40-50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...TO SOUTHERLY WINDS CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES...AS WELL
AS PERIODS OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS PORTENDS A THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
SAT AND SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YDA...AND NOW
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THRU
FRIDAY. ONLY ONE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.
MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE A ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.
SATURDAY...
MODELS FORECAST AN INVERTED TROF IN THE EASTERLIES TO ROTATE OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CREDIENCE IS PUT INTO THE EXTENDED MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THE MONSOON...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
LOW GRADE MONSOON THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER
PINAL...EASTERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... AFTER SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN
AFFECT ONE...OR MORE OF THE TERMINALS...A RATHER QUIET REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PUSHED BACK
WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE CURRENT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE WESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
NOT BEING QUIET OD STRONG AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BOTH SE CA SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS MAINLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND
A RE-ORIENTING OF HIGHEST STORMS CHANCES WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN
THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH FAIR/GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY TRENDS
NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
117 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BY NEXT WEEK...DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT HAVE EXPANDED WEST AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER PARTS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...SOUTH TO COOLIDGE AND
CASA GRANDE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WERE UNEXPECTED
AND THE MECHANISM FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT WAS HARD TO DISCERN...
ALTHOUGH ITS RELATED TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 40-50 KNOT 300-250 MB
SOUTHEASTERLY JETSTREAM EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF AZ. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 07Z SHWR DEVELOPMENT...
AND FORECASTS IT TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AND CASA
GRANDE AREAS...OR THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 16Z FRI.
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24. I.E...A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ZONE 24.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
FAR NORTHEAST AZ FRIDAY MORNING...TO THE VICINITY OF EL PASO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN VEERS THE BELT OF UNUSUALLY STRONG 300/250 MB
40-50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...TO SOUTHERLY WINDS CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES...AS WELL
AS PERIODS OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS PORTENDS A THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
SAT AND SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YDA...AND NOW
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THRU
FRIDAY. ONLY ONE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.
MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE A ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.
SATURDAY...
MODELS FORECAST AN INVERTED TROF IN THE EASTERLIES TO ROTATE OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CREDEECE IS PUT INTO THE EXTENDED MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THE MONSOON...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
LOW GRADE MONSOON THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER
PINAL...EASTERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT
SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KPHX/KIWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THERE ALSO
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. THEREAFTER...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BOTH SE CA SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND
A RE-ORIENTING OF HIGHEST STORMS CHANCES WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN
THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH FAIR/GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY TRENDS
NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
921 PM MST THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATED AN
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH ITS CENTER OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA. STORMS THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE EAST OF TUCSON...AND APPEAR TO
HAVE FIRED GENERALLY ALONG THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/BOUNDARY
ALOFT. MODELS ALL SHOW A SLIGHT SHIFTING THE HIGH AXIS WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING AN AREA OF
HIGHER OMEGA AT 300 MB TO THE NE OF TUCSON...GENERALLY E PINAL AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR WEAK
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
STORMS ARE STILL ACTIVE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND
EASTERN COCHISE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR INDICATED THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BUT BECOME MORE GENERALIZED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST PIMA AND EASTERN PINAL INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS FITS THE CURRENT TRENDS AND LARGER SCALE
PICTURE...SO MODIFIED INHERITED POPS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING MORE
STABLE WITH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS REORIENTS FROM A
POSITION NORTH OF OUR AREA TO ONE THAT IS MORE TYPICALLY AMPLIFIED
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS THE BRISK EASTERLY FLOW IS TURNING
INTO AN INCREASING AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FRIDAY WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE NEW FLOW REGIME SETS
UP...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE WILL BE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS...NOT THE STRONG
MESOCYCLONES OF TUESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE BUSY SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS FROM
THE SOUTH IMPACTING METRO TUCSON IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE LONG SOUTHERLY ENHANCED FETCH WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH MARKEDLY INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
AT THAT POINT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKNESS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS TO OUR EAST. THE PROBLEM IS OUR MEAN FLOW MAY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY WITH THIS...PUSHING THE BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF STORM ACTIVITY...DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A
MINOR DIFFERENCE IN POSITION OF LARGER SCALE FEATURES MAKING A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTION FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BEST
GUESS IS THAT AFTER MONDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS COVERAGE
WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS REMAIN BUSIER.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTIES WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE GENERALIZED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TUCSON IN EASTERN PINAL AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. SLOW CLEARING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 30-45
KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPDATED FOR LATEST POP TRENDS AND LINE OF STORMS HEADING SOUTH
FROM THE DENVER AREA. UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.
RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE NE GOMEX WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
MIDWEST/MID SOUTH WITH AN ADJACENT FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING UP ERN
SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD. WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR AOB
10KTS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTION THAT WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS NONE OF THE THE 00Z
PENINSULA RAOBS SHOWED ANY MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70
LYR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE
DVLPS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A THIN VORT BAND POSITIONED JUST N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THAT MAY PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT A
H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS IS NOT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS A LITTLE SKETCHY AS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
ACRS THE PENINSULA ARE AOB 60PCT WITH AVG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND
7C. THE H85-H50 LYR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER WITH RH VALUES BTWN 60-
70PCT...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
DIURNAL CU FIELD ONCE IT DVLPS.
THE 03/00Z MOS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILE...THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW. THE 3KM
WRF AND HRRR MODELS BOTH HINT AT SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. WILL GO WITH A 30-20PCT NW TO SE BREAKDOWN
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PENINSULA.
PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S. OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S.
SAT-MON...POSITIVELY TILTED RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL SLIDE EWD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND LAGGING OVER THE SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SWRLY STEERING LYR FLOW TENDING TO PUSH ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF
REGIME CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS REFLECT THIS...AVERAGING 50-60 PCT WHICH IS ABOUT
10-20 PCT ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
TUE-THU..GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPARITY IN HOW MUCH MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS AND FL FROM
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARD THIS END
WHILE THE ECM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
ERN CONUS AND ERODING THE WRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A TUTT-TYPE LOW REACHING THE BAHAMAS ON WED AND
EITHER MOVING INTO SE FL (ECM) OR ACROSS THE BREADTH OF SOUTH FL
(GFS) ON THU. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT FORWARD/W-NW FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
FCST GRIDS SHOW CLIMO POPS TUE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WED-THU
HOWEVER POPS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON ONE OR BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT LOW. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SFC WINDS: THRU 03/13Z...S/SW 2-4KTS. BTWN 03/13Z-
03/16Z...S OF KVRB-KOBE BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS...N OF KVRB-KOBE S/SW 3-
6KTS. BTWN 03/16Z-03/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG
THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 03/18Z-03/20Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S/SE 6-9KTS
CONTG THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 04/00Z-04/06Z...BCMG S/SE 2-4KTS ALL SITES.
THRU 04/12Z WX/VSBYS/CIGS...BTWN 03/16Z-04/03Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE SCT
IFR TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD TSRAS. BTWN 03/21Z-03/24Z SLGT CHC
+TSRAS VCNTY OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR W OF KSFB.
&&
.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT.
SAT-TUE...BOTH THE NWPS AND WNWAVE FLAVORS OF WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE BACK TO SUMMER-LONG BIAS OF GENERATING PEAK SEAS
AVERAGING ABOUT A FT HIGHER THAN REALITY. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS
INVOF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP PEAK WINDS
NEAR 15KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE...2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
NEAR SHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 72 90 72 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 94 73 93 74 / 30 30 60 30
MLB 94 73 90 74 / 20 20 30 30
VRB 92 72 89 73 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 93 75 93 76 / 30 30 60 30
SFB 95 73 92 73 / 30 30 50 30
ORL 94 74 92 75 / 30 30 60 30
FPR 91 73 90 72 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
405 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
...LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY...
.NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS FAIRLY
ABSENT TODAY AS SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAP MODEL DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAINLY OVER OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTIVE.
THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH PRIMARILY ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-
20 PERCENT) MOST AREAS WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING A BETTER
CHANCE OVER OUR SRN ZONES WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES. WSW TO W FLOW...LESS CLOUDINESS...AND 850 MB TEMPS A TAD
HIGHER SUGGEST HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S WITH AFTN E COAST SEA BREEZE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AT THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NE FL ZONES E OF HIGHWAY
301. MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAY PRODUCE VERY ISOLD WEAK CONVECTION
OVER OUR ERN ZONES IN THE PREVAILING SWLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY SAT TO THE APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
BENEATH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF INDEPENDENCE
DAY...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS NUDGES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL FL
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND DUE TO PREVAILING S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. OUR
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZES IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OUTFLOWS PUSHING NORTHWARD AND
IGNITING SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST
GA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST
FL AS A SEA BREEZE COLLISION TAKES PLACE. PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
CLIMB TO 100-105 RANGE.
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SAT...WITH RE-
IGNITION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS INTO OUR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 70-75.
THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUN...CREATING
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES PUSH INLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY. NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN BETWEEN THE I-75 AND I-95 CORRIDORS IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH HIGH END SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WITH UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING
THROUGH OUR REGION SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN PLACE NORTH OF WAYCROSS ALL NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM 70-75.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE REGION-WIDE EARLY NEXT AS
SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE APPALACHIANS ONLY
GRADUALLY FILLS BY MIDWEEK. DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW PREVAILS MON AND
TUES AS ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER FL PENINSULA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AN EARLIER START TO THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 85-90 RANGE. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL LIKELY SPARK
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 ON TUES...WITH HIGH-END SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING WED AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES ON WED AND
THURS AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND DUE TO AN EXPECTED LATER START TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH UPPER 80S PREVAILING AT THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. OUR REGION MAY
BE IN A SUBSIDENT REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF A TUTT CROSSING SOUTH
FL ON FRI...POSSIBLY PROMOTING A FURTHER DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND. LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE MUGGY 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS. ONLY VCTS PLACED IN FOR GNV TAF WHERE CHANCES ARE
NEAR 20 PERCENT. W TO SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KT BY 14Z.
LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT SGJ...CRG AND SSI.
&&
.MARINE...AXIS OF BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PREVAILING SW TO W FLOW DAY BUT SHIFT
TO SE/S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MAY
PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS TONIGHT BUT TOO SHORT-LIVED AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MEETING
CRITERIA. MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SURROUND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH TO THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. ISOLD THREAT TODAY...THEN SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTORM WIND
GUSTS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS/NEARSHORE WIND WAVES ROUGHLY AT 1.5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS SUGGEST SURF OF 2 FT OR LESS. THUS LOW
RISK LOOKS REASONABLE. LITTLE CHANGE FCST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 20
SSI 91 76 90 75 / 20 20 40 20
JAX 94 73 94 74 / 20 20 40 20
SGJ 91 75 90 74 / 20 20 40 20
GNV 93 71 94 73 / 20 20 40 30
OCF 93 73 93 74 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA EASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
INDICATES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE STORMS MOVING THROUGH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS TRENDS BECOME
FURTHER ESTABLISHED. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.
SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 11-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
KSAV...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL DUE
TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH
CLOUDS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINAL IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.
RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MIDLEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
SATURDAYS HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY,
WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL
OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS WHILE INTERACTING WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.
ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
229 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WITH THE INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS...HAVE RAISED THE OVERNIGHT POP
TO HIGH CHANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES TO DISCUSS AT THE END OF THE EVENING
SHIFT. FIRST...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WAS UPDATED AND
ISSUED AT 1040 PM. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO IT...JUST
WANTED TO ISSUE AN UPDATED PRODUCT SO THE MID SHIFT WILL NOT HAVE
TO MESS WITH IT UNTIL LATER IN THEIR SHIFT. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND OTHER UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS. LEFT IN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA IN CASE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRES OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE POPS
ARE A LOT LOWER THAN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THAT WERE
IN THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING...THERE JUST WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH A LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
DIMINISHED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
FORECAST STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL
LEAVE THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE LATER IN THE SHIFT TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING AND TO UPDATE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY MORNING DUE LARGELY TO CEILINGS. THE LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...RENEWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR AND LAST INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA FRI EVENING...WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM EVEN IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE KINEMATICS WILL BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORM WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OF ONLY 25-30KT AT 500MB. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR INSOLATION DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
WEAK N-NE FLOW...HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EVENING FOR
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY...AND IT MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
TEMPS IN THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +17C. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
MINIMAL SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA BEING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE FROPA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE MONDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...THERE WILL BE
LIKELY AMPLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY ANOTHER
COOL DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND +6C
WITH N-NE WINDS. MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO LAST TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH RISES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
327 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
IFR TO LOW END MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SLOWLY MIGRATED WEST INTO KGRI
AND WILL MOVE INTO KEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS COULD BE A FOG
ISSUE. THIS COULD BE A TOUGH CALL...AS AREAS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS CLEAR AREAS WHICH RADIATE OUT. HAVE SEEN
THAT MANY TIMES. RIGHT NOW...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN KGRI/KEAR...HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY FOR FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AROUND SUNRISE. SOME SHOT FOR A SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN CHANCE OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT MAKES IT TOUGH
TO THINK EITHER LOCATION WILL BE ONE OF FEW SPOTS TO SEE THE
RAIN...AND THE TAFS ARE DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.
SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 80 67 81 66 / 70 50 50 50
CLARKSVILLE 79 65 80 65 / 70 50 50 30
CROSSVILLE 76 63 75 63 / 70 70 60 50
COLUMBIA 80 66 79 65 / 70 60 60 50
LAWRENCEBURG 79 67 79 65 / 70 60 60 40
WAVERLY 79 66 79 66 / 70 50 50 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT /THAT
AIDED IN PROVIDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/ PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS SAGGED SWRD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WANED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...IT IS NO
WONDER RATHER LIGHT ECHOES WERE BRIEFLY SEEN THERE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT LACKING OF ANY FORCING AND INSTABILITY MADE IT HARD-
PRESSED TO BE MAINTAINED. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHOWS STORMS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...WHILST DRIFTING SWRD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SWWRD TO ACROSS
ERN NM. FURTHERMORE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IS BEING
DEPICTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME PER THE HRRR. THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS INDEED ALMOST WANED
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVING POPPED UP ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND HAS DRIFTED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH
PLAINS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR/S DEPICTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES.
LATER TODAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING...THUS VEERING TO A S-SERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN. HINTS OF STORMS MAKING IT TO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THIS EVENING
THRU TONIGHT...THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...HENCE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS...AND
THEREFORE BEING THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SWRD TO ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
1.0-2.0 KJ/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND 0-6 KM OF BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
AOA 30 KTS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS HAVING THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND PERHAPS APPROACH
STRONG LEVELS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. /29
.LONG TERM...
LATEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY THE
FOURTH STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY QUIET. THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PUMPED
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL EDGE CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND CANADA PAIRS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
TOPPING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STEER SOUTHWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM MENTION A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH OUR CONFIDENCE GAINING FROM SOLUTION CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS WITH MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT CERTAINLY IS AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN FAVOR OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD
CLEAR EAST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WEAKENING. BUT WE STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER NOW ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE
COULD DRAW HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED THAT FAR OUT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 64 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
TULIA 88 65 88 68 / 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 88 66 88 68 / 30 30 10 10
LEVELLAND 89 67 89 67 / 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 66 88 67 / 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 90 67 89 68 / 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 91 71 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
SPUR 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 92 72 93 73 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 822 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SHOWERS QUITE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM EARLIER WHICH BASICALLY
PUT A CAP ON DEEP INSTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF INSOLATION. EVENING
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN
DEEP CONVECTION THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE OFF TO THE WEST. THUS FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
BANDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPED BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SO CUT BACK
ON POPS TO LOWER CHANCE AT BEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THEN SOME
POSSIBLE SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES BUT IFFY. MOIST ENVIRONMENT UNDER SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD CANOPY LIKELY TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE FOG
ESPCLY EAST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS LONGER. LEFT LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH ONLY ANOTHER CATEGORY OR TWO FALL IN VALUES
EXPECTED UNDER THE SOUPY CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING SOLAR INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KY/OHIO INTO WV/NRN VA BY AFTERNOON WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN TN. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHO GETS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
AN INCH OR LESS. SINCE WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF
ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS...AND WILL SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING TO THE DIFFICULT FORECAST ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER ACROSS VA/NC
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE UNSURE WHICH SURFACE LOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE
ONE. THE ONE THAT DOES WILL HAVE THE STRONGER STORMS...EITHER ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
OPT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICK AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR OVERALL
COVERAGE...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY. ON SUNDAY...THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW MAY SHIFT EAST AND MERGER WITH THE MID ATLANTIC LOW. THIS
MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
HALF WET WHILE BECOMING RAIN-FREE AND MOST CLOUDY NORTH. WITH RAIN
AND THICK CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE CONVERTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE MODELS...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
WEDGE IN PLAY...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC REGIME IS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DETAILS AND TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A GOOD
DEAL OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT CAN BE HANDLED WITH VCSH AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KLYH WHERE THEY SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOG HAS BEEN IN
AND OUT AT SEVERAL SITES AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PROHIBIT
THICK RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO CIGS WILL BE
COMING DOWN AND KBLF MAY WELL BE IN CLOUD FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
LIFR VSBY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING OVER THE AREA FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS LEFT THE REGION WITH A
DEVELOPING WEDGE. AS THE UPPER TROF SHARPENS TODAY AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMES AT US FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
SCENARIO WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. BELIEVE THE NET RESULT WILL BE FOR A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THE
BOUNDARY WILL COME BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND...WHILE
KBCB/KBLF/KLWB SEE LIGHT UPSLOPE AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO
RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.
BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.
TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME
NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT.
FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.
IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.
OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.
02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.
SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.
FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE
AREA. SOME NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...2. CLOUIDS ARE CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A
SHORT NIGHT.
FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.
IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.
OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
308 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS OFF TO A
FIRECRACKER START WITH NOCTURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THRU THE PHOENIX METRO...ERN PINAL...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN TO
THE W-NW AROUND 10-15 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY RAINERS
WITH 0.50"-1.25" BEING RECORDED IN SPOTS. THE HEAVIEST HAS OCCURRED
IN GRAHAM COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS WHERE A
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. INTERACTIONS
FROM SE AZ OUTFLOWS AND FROM THE NE SONORA MCS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SW NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA
LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS
THIS MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT W-NW. DUE TO THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY...ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED EVENING STORMS
WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
MONSOON PATTERN.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING OUT THE WESTERN AREAS
BUT HOLDING ON TO ENOUGH MOISTURE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS
FOR CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY E OF A KCGZ-
KOLS LINE THIS AM WILL CONT TO MV TO THE W-NW. LCL MVFR CONDS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND NR HIER TERRAIN.
CONDS IMPRVG LATER THIS AM BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTN
AND EVENG. BRIEF WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVENG OF 30-45 KTS AND MVFR
CONDS PSBL NR THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.
FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY
EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE
SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN
16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.
EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS
MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 94 78 92 78 / 30 20 40 30
FMY 95 76 94 76 / 60 30 60 30
GIF 96 76 95 75 / 40 20 60 50
SRQ 94 77 92 77 / 30 20 40 20
BKV 95 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 30
SPG 94 80 92 80 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HEATING TO OCCUR.
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO THE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. W/SW FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL DELAY THE SEA BREEZE
NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT SHOULD FORM EARLY THIS AFTN AND DRIFT
INLAND.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INITIATE JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST
BY EARLY AFTN AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES WEST. GFS MOS GUIDANCE CAME
IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE. DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE
PROFILE...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCSTR THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW.
OUR LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MESO MODELS BOTH SHOW BEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCD WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVE FOCUSED ON THE
NORTH INTERIOR. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT
USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION... E TO SE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS
16Z-18Z AND PUSH INLAND TO SFB/MCO 19Z-21Z. ISOLD TSRA SHOULD FORM
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT MORE THAN VC TERM AT ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT A
COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR 23Z-01Z WHICH MAY REQUIRE A
TEMPO GROUP.
&&
.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST 10-14KT WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2FT...UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 72 90 72 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 94 73 93 74 / 30 30 60 30
MLB 94 73 90 74 / 20 20 30 30
VRB 92 72 89 73 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 93 75 93 76 / 30 30 60 30
SFB 95 73 92 73 / 30 30 50 30
ORL 94 74 92 75 / 30 30 60 30
FPR 91 73 90 72 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1009 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
...LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY...
.UPDATE...THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING DOES SHOW A PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MID LEVEL CAP WITH 5H TEMPS AROUND -8.5C. THE BEST
FORCING TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GA. THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH PW AROUND 1.65". WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS (15 TO 20 PERCENT)...WITH BOTH THE ARW
AND HRRR SHOWING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SRN TIER ZONES WHERE
WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE WSW TO W FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS A TAD HIGHER
SUGGEST HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH AFTN E COAST SEA BREEZE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS. ONLY VCTS PLACED IN FOR GNV TAF WHERE CHANCES ARE
NEAR 20 PERCENT. W TO SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KT BY 14Z.
LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT SGJ...CRG AND SSI. WEST WINDS
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 4 TO 7 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...AXIS OF BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PREVAILING SW TO W FLOW DAY BUT SHIFT
TO SE/S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MAY
PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS TONIGHT BUT TOO SHORT-LIVED AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MEETING
CRITERIA. MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SURROUND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH TO THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. ISOLD THREAT TODAY...THEN SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTORM WIND
GUSTS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS/NEARSHORE WIND WAVES ROUGHLY AT 1.5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS SUGGEST SURF OF 2 FT OR LESS. THUS LOW
RISK LOOKS REASONABLE. LITTLE CHANGE FCST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 72 93 70 / 20 20 20 20
SSI 91 76 91 76 / 20 20 40 20
JAX 94 73 92 72 / 20 20 40 20
SGJ 91 75 92 74 / 20 20 40 20
GNV 93 72 93 72 / 20 20 40 30
OCF 94 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PETERSON/CORDERO/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.
SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.
RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 74 89 74 / 40 40 60 40
MLU 90 74 88 73 / 40 60 60 40
DEQ 84 70 86 71 / 60 60 60 40
TXK 86 72 87 72 / 60 60 60 40
ELD 85 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 40
TYR 89 74 89 74 / 40 30 40 30
GGG 90 74 90 74 / 40 30 50 40
LFK 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 74 89 74 / 30 40 60 40
MLU 90 74 88 73 / 30 60 60 40
DEQ 84 70 86 71 / 60 60 60 40
TXK 86 72 87 72 / 60 60 60 40
ELD 85 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 40
TYR 89 74 89 74 / 30 30 40 30
GGG 90 74 90 74 / 30 30 50 40
LFK 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 74 89 74 / 30 40 60 40
MLU 90 74 88 73 / 30 60 60 40
DEQ 84 70 86 71 / 60 60 60 40
TXK 86 72 87 72 / 60 60 60 40
ELD 85 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 40
TYR 89 74 89 74 / 30 30 40 30
GGG 90 74 90 74 / 30 30 50 40
LFK 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE CONTINUED DENSE
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL HAVE ON HIGHS AND IN TURN POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARD SUNSET LAST NIGHT CLEARLY SHOWED
THAT OFTEN DENSE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS FROM MONTANA TO MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY
WITH DENSE SMOKE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL AGAIN KEEP US FROM ACHIEVING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WHEN IT COMES
TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A GOOD 2-4 DEG C WARMING IN THE 925-
850 LAYER WILL STILL YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THU...WITH
MOST PLACES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN HEADING FOR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE REASON IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER TODAY IS
THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IT HAS TRAILING BACK TO ITS SW. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS WORKING ACROSS NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TO CENTRAL MN BY
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE WHAT MEAGER FORCING WE WILL HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WORK IN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK DENSE SMOKE WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR US TO REALIZE THE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE
NAM/GFS HAVE...AND INSTEAD WILL KEEP US CAPPED AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS REFLECT THIS IDEA AS WELL. FOR
POPS...TOOK 30 POPS FROM CENTRAL MN AND WORKED THEM OVER TOWARD WRN
WI INTO THE EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOWS UP AROUND H85. ALSO SWITCHED OUR WEATHER GRIDS FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING TO GET THE FORECAST TO READ ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL LOSE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN WE
CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION. WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD...BUT THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST SE MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHERE SMALL POPS WERE PLACED. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST AND SOUTH METRO...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE A
CONCERN AS THE FIRE SMOKE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SURELY COST US
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY IS STILL NW...SO HAD TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION ON
THE HIGHS AS MIX-DOWN AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE WAY WARMER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE BETWEEN 82 AND 85 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS THE NEXT CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT...
STRETCHING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM
DULUTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO OMAHA MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
EAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY. LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FA WHICH ACTUALLY
BRINGS IN COOLER AIR AT 850 MB. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON EXISTS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY
WITH WEST CENTRAL MN BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. ONE REASON FOR
KEEPING THE HIGHS UP ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FIRE SMOKE
AND ALLOW HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO MIX-DOWN VALUES.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SFC CAPE VALUES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. CAPE IN THE SFC-3KM RANGE IS ON THE ORDER OF 150-200
J/KG. ALTHOUGH A VEERING PROFILE IS FORECAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR OUR WESTERN AREA. 0-1KM SHEAR IS A
LITTLE BETTER. A CONGLOMERATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS POINT
TO EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE HOT
SPOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO PRETTY MUCH WHERE
THE HIGHEST SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE. HENCE...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HEADING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINING IN PLACE. PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES OVER A LARGE AREA OF OUR FA FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CURRENT QPF GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY INDICATE
OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO REDWOOD FALLS LINE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...SMALL POPS BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WITH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF NOW GOING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING PRETTY
BLEAK...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. TERMINALS
MOST LIKE TO SEE A SHRA/TSRA ARE RNH/EAU...THOUGH STC/MSP CAN NOT
RULE SOMETHING OUT. FOG MAY BE AN ISSUES AGAIN AT EAU SATURDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO INTRODUCED AN
MVFR VIS FOR THEM TO END THE TAF FOR NOW.
KMSP...IF MSP SEES A SHRA/TSRA IT WOULD BE BETWEEN 23Z AND
3Z...BUT THAT THREAT STILL LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH A CROSS WIND FOR THE 30S/12Z MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH
WITH SPEED GENERALLY 8 KTS OR LESS...IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. TSRA WITH MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY. THEN VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
JUST WALKED IN THE DOOR AND DISCOVERED THAT ALTHOUGH FOG ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NO WORSE THAN THE LIGHT/NUISANCE
VARIETY...NDOR WEB CAMS OUT IN THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA ALONG WITH
AIRPORT OBS SUCH AS FROM LEXINGTON SUGGEST THAT A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 MILE
RANGE HAD DEVELOPED OUT IN THIS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH AT LEAST SMALL POCKETS OF DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY) EMBEDDED WITHIN. FORTUNATELY...THIS HEAVIER FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND THE 830-900 AM TIME FRAME AT MOST. GIVEN
THAT THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ANOTHER 60-90 MINUTES OR SO...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGID) FOR
THE DAWSON/GOSPER AREA AND ALSO BEEFED UP THE MORNING FORECAST TO
REFLECT "AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE" IN THESE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY
DURING THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL
LINGER AT OR BELOW 1K AND BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM THROUGH MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN SITES...AND MAY
FLUCTUATE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THEREAFTER AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY
DURING THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL
LINGER AT OR BELOW 1K AND BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM THROUGH MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN SITES...AND MAY
FLUCTUATE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THEREAFTER AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY.
SO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS
NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES AND EXTENDS WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST OVER ALREADY
WELL SATURATED GROUND IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE FFA...AND LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
840 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND RADAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BACK BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TONIGHT. ALREADY
NUMEROUS FLASHFLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BASED OFF REPORTS OF
RAINFALL IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE IN THE PAST 4 HOURS. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH FUTURE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE
LINE. EXPANSION OF THE FFA FARTHER NORTH WILL BE MONITORED TODAY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PWB
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED NORTHWEST OF BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW...BUT WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY NOT AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO MOVE EAST FROM EAST NEW
MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT HOW FAR
EAST IS THE QUESTION. HOWEVER BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...-TSRA
SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT KCDS AND
KPVW...BUT WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TO AFFECT
KLBB IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A PROB30 FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY AT KCDS AND KPVW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SCT VFR DECKS WILL BECOME
BKN/OVC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT /THAT
AIDED IN PROVIDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/ PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS SAGGED SWRD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WANED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...IT IS NO
WONDER RATHER LIGHT ECHOES WERE BRIEFLY SEEN THERE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT LACKING OF ANY FORCING AND INSTABILITY MADE IT HARD-
PRESSED TO BE MAINTAINED. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHOWS STORMS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...WHILST DRIFTING SWRD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SWWRD TO ACROSS
ERN NM. FURTHERMORE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IS BEING
DEPICTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME PER THE HRRR. THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS INDEED ALMOST WANED
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVING POPPED UP ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND HAS DRIFTED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH
PLAINS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR/S DEPICTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES.
LATER TODAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING...THUS VEERING TO A S-SERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN. HINTS OF STORMS MAKING IT TO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THIS EVENING
THRU TONIGHT...THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...HENCE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS...AND
THEREFORE BEING THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SWRD TO ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
1.0-2.0 KJ/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND 0-6 KM OF BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
AOA 30 KTS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS HAVING THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND PERHAPS APPROACH
STRONG LEVELS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. /29
LONG TERM...
LATEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY THE
FOURTH STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY QUIET. THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PUMPED
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL EDGE CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND CANADA PAIRS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
TOPPING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STEER SOUTHWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM MENTION A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH OUR CONFIDENCE GAINING FROM SOLUTION CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS WITH MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT CERTAINLY IS AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN FAVOR OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD
CLEAR EAST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WEAKENING. BUT WE STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER NOW ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE
COULD DRAW HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED THAT FAR OUT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 64 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
TULIA 88 65 88 68 / 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 88 66 88 68 / 30 30 10 10
LEVELLAND 89 67 89 67 / 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 66 88 67 / 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 90 67 89 68 / 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 91 71 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
SPUR 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 92 72 93 73 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NICE LITTLE IMPULSE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN FAR NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW INTERACTION TO
HELP DRIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE...GRAHAM AND
EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES. STILL CLEARING THE DEBRIS CLOUD WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING AND
SATELLITE ESTIMATES WITH 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK NOW BELOW 500MB WITH A WEAKENING TREND EATING
INTO THE H3 TO H5 LAYER AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE VERY EASY MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT AREA WIDE TODAY...BUT STORM STRUCTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN A FULL LIFE CYCLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT
IS A REMNANT CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION IN NORTHWEST COCHISE AND
SOUTHWEST GRAHAM COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST IN A DIMINISHING FLOW. THAT
COULD BE LOCALIZED FOCUS OF CONVECTION NOT BEING PICKED BY HI RES
MODELS.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND FOR TODAY OF COVERAGE
DOMINATED BY MOUNTAIN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT
OUTFLOW WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN
AREAS. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST HRRR AND UOFA WRF-NAM TRENDS PROVIDING
A CERTAIN LEVEL OF COMFORT WITH THIS FORECAST AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG H7 THETA-E RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SONORA ARGUES FOR A POSSIBLE COMPLEX JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY E OF A KCGZ-
KOLS LINE THIS AM WILL CONT TO MV TO THE W-NW. LCL MVFR CONDS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND NR HIER TERRAIN.
CONDS IMPRVG LATER THIS AM BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTN
AND EVENG. BRIEF WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVENG OF 30-45 KTS AND MVFR
CONDS PSBL NR THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS OFF TO A
FIRECRACKER START WITH NOCTURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THRU THE PHOENIX METRO...ERN PINAL...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN TO
THE W-NW AROUND 10-15 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY RAINERS
WITH 0.50"-1.25" BEING RECORDED IN SPOTS. THE HEAVIEST HAS OCCURRED
IN GRAHAM COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS WHERE A
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. INTERACTIONS
FROM SE AZ OUTFLOWS AND FROM THE NE SONORA MCS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SW NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA LIKELY
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THIS
MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT W-NW. DUE TO THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY...ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED EVENING STORMS
WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
MONSOON PATTERN.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING OUT THE WESTERN AREAS
BUT HOLDING ON TO ENOUGH MOISTURE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS
FOR CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AT 14Z...THE RUC SHOWED A 60+KT JET MAX OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. THE GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN BY 00Z WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN DENVER...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. I THINK THE NAM IS TOO HIGH AND THE GFS
AND RUC ARE TOO LOW. THEREFORE...I WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. THE GFS...NAM AND ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO SHIFT INTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
AROUND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT
COUNTIES...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WITH PW`S AROUND AN INCH...WE COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE GOOD MOVEMENT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER...THEREFORE THE
FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS TO BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM PARK COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO SUNDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE STORM ACTIVITY.
COOLER AND STILL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY LOW LEVELS WILL BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER THE
COOLER AIR AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER. MAIN THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH STILL SOME CHANCE ON THE PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. STORMS COULD BE SLOWER MOVING ON THIS DAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ALOFT AND UPSLOPE...INTERFACE BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL AIR AND
THE WARMER MOUNTAIN AIR...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE...WOULD
BE THE LIKELY TROUBLE SPOT BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO COOL TO CREATE STRONG STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR
SITUATION BUT LESS OF ALL OF THAT AS THE AIRMASS STARTS TO WARM
AND DRY A BIT AND THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FLOW ALOFT.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN. SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DRY WSW
FLOW. THERE COULD BE A SWEET SPOT WHERE IT IS WARM ENOUGH BUT
STILL MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN ACTIVE DAY...MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME THREAT OF STORMS AFTER THAT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT THE WARMTH ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAP IT...WILL GO FOR A
PRETTY LOW KEY CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS FROM 23Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z ON THE 4TH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1056 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AT 14Z...THE RUC SHOWED A 60+KT JET MAX OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. THE GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN BY 00Z WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN DENVER...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. I THINK THE NAM IS TOO HIGH AND THE GFS
AND RUC ARE TOO LOW. THEREFORE...I WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. THE GFS...NAM AND ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO SHIFT INTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
AROUND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT
COUNTIES...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WITH PW`S AROUND AN INCH...WE COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALLL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE GOOD MOVEMENT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX DRIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO THIS MORNING AS SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN JET MAX LOCATION. IF THAT OCCURS THEN STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY TAP INTO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND INTENSIFY.
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WHEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FIRES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED QUITE A FEW SCENARIOS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE IN PLAY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG SPEED MAX TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND MORNING CONVECTION...SO OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY TODAY
FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER AND EVEN A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY FAST TO REDUCE THREAT OF HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET AND BURN SCAR FLOODING AS
STRONGER STORMS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE INCH IN 30
MINUTES.
FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW STORMS GOING
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW MEX INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MDLS SHOW
SOME QPF SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. BY THAT TIME...
THE RDG WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90...WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ON SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
DAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CLIP NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
FRONT RANGE. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH
THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER COOL DAY
AS WELL BUT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL START TO REBUILD OVER UT AND WESTERN CO BY
MIDWEEK...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN CO. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL THERE FOR A TROUGH TO BRUSH THE CWA FM THE NORTH SO WL
KEEP SLGT CHC AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS AND LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS REMAINS LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH 23Z. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS
AFTER 23Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KALINA
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KALINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.
FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.
EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 91 / 20 40 30 60
FMY 76 94 76 93 / 30 60 30 40
GIF 76 94 76 93 / 20 60 50 60
SRQ 77 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 50
BKV 74 94 73 92 / 20 40 30 60
SPG 80 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA BY 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL 03Z FOR AEX. WILL THEN HAVE VCSH THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM I10
CORRIDOR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE VCSH FOR AREA AIRPORTS AND LET LATER SHIFTS PINPOINT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.
WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
.85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.
MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.
RUA
MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 75 90 75 / 20 20 50 30
LCH 91 77 90 78 / 20 10 40 20
LFT 92 77 89 76 / 20 10 50 20
BPT 92 76 90 78 / 20 10 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER AT KSAW AND MAINLY SHOWERS
AT KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF SHOWERS OCCUR AT KIWD
OR KSAW THIS AFTERNOON...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
JUST WALKED IN THE DOOR AND DISCOVERED THAT ALTHOUGH FOG ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NO WORSE THAN THE LIGHT/NUISANCE
VARIETY...NDOR WEB CAMS OUT IN THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA ALONG WITH
AIRPORT OBS SUCH AS FROM LEXINGTON SUGGEST THAT A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 MILE
RANGE HAD DEVELOPED OUT IN THIS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH AT LEAST SMALL POCKETS OF DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY) EMBEDDED WITHIN. FORTUNATELY...THIS HEAVIER FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND THE 830-900 AM TIME FRAME AT MOST. GIVEN
THAT THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ANOTHER 60-90 MINUTES OR SO...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGID) FOR
THE DAWSON/GOSPER AREA AND ALSO BEEFED UP THE MORNING FORECAST TO
REFLECT "AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE" IN THESE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD AT KGRI...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS OF MIDDAY...AND
KGRI CONTINUES TO OBSERVE A CEILING NEAR 2500FT AGL AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS STRATUS IS DIMINISHING AND AT
THIS TIME IT IS BELIEVED THIS STRATUS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KGRI BY 19Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH BKN025 AT KGRI UNTIL 19Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. THE CEILING HAS ALREADY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS AT KEAR
AND AS A RESULT...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGHOUT THE TAF FOR
KEAR. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.
SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY TO MORE SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN OVER
S NM BY SATURDAY AFTN. AS A RESULT STORM CELLS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE S AND W TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING
DEPICTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING S OUT OF CO. TRUSTED MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT TS FORMING CLUSTERS AND LINES ACROSS N NM THIS AFTN
THEN SPREADING S ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
INDICATION THAT NW AND E CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO GET HIT. CELLS
SHOULD MOVE SLOWER AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ERRATIC TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IF THE HIGH SINKS FAR ENOUGH
S...STRATUS STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE E AT 10-15 KT.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
FEWER DENSITY ALTITUDE PROBLEMS. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 89 65 87 / 40 20 30 30
DULCE........................... 52 83 53 81 / 40 30 40 40
CUBA............................ 55 78 55 78 / 60 30 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 58 84 57 82 / 60 50 60 30
EL MORRO........................ 56 81 55 81 / 70 60 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 58 84 57 84 / 50 50 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 58 80 58 81 / 50 50 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 60 85 58 84 / 50 50 50 30
CHAMA........................... 49 75 51 74 / 50 40 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 79 61 80 / 60 40 60 50
PECOS........................... 56 78 57 79 / 60 40 50 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 75 53 75 / 40 40 40 60
RED RIVER....................... 47 65 48 66 / 60 50 50 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 68 52 69 / 60 50 50 60
TAOS............................ 53 80 54 81 / 40 30 40 40
MORA............................ 53 75 55 76 / 50 50 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 60 86 / 40 20 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 59 79 61 80 / 50 30 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 83 61 85 / 50 20 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 85 66 87 / 50 30 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 87 67 89 / 50 20 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 89 66 91 / 50 20 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 91 67 93 / 50 20 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 89 66 90 / 50 20 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 90 67 91 / 50 20 50 40
SOCORRO......................... 65 91 66 90 / 40 40 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 81 60 83 / 60 40 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 59 84 61 86 / 60 40 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 83 56 85 / 60 20 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 79 58 81 / 60 30 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 80 60 82 / 60 40 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 86 63 87 / 40 30 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 76 59 78 / 40 40 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 57 79 59 81 / 40 20 20 30
RATON........................... 57 83 57 84 / 30 10 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 58 84 58 85 / 30 10 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 78 56 79 / 50 40 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 87 64 90 / 40 5 20 20
ROY............................. 60 81 61 84 / 30 10 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 65 90 67 94 / 30 5 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 87 65 91 / 60 5 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 91 68 94 / 40 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 65 88 65 90 / 50 5 20 20
PORTALES........................ 66 89 66 91 / 40 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 88 66 91 / 60 5 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 68 91 67 94 / 50 5 20 20
PICACHO......................... 63 85 62 88 / 40 10 30 30
ELK............................. 60 78 60 80 / 50 20 30 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND WATERTOWN REGIONS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH PA...AND MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH
FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL SOUTH OF THAT LINE. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
SOME MODEL DETAILS...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH EXCESS INSTABILITY NOT BEING WELL HANDLED
BY CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION AND THUS BEING DUMPED IN THE FORM OF
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH A ~1 INCH DUMP
/NAM/ OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD DAYBREAK ALONG WHAT
WOULD NORMALLY BE A WEAK DEFORMATION REGION IN THE WINTER...BUT
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO KNOW WHAT TO DO...AND DUMP ALL THE
PRECIPITATION AT ONCE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MEMBERS OF VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES...THE NCAR AND SSEO...APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE...WITH MOST MEMBERS NOT SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXCEPT
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER. THEREFORE WILL FOCUS ON THAT REGION WITH A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SPRINKLES OR LESS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO NIL NORTH OF THAT REGION.
AS THE HRRR COMES INTO FOCUS...THIS TREND LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MOST
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH PA BUT WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO FAR.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/SATURDAY...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
WEAK LIFT ALONG A LAKE ERIE BREEZE TO SPARK A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME
WEAK CONVECTION TOWARD LEWIS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY MOST MODEL OUTPUT IN FAVOR OF A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...A LITTLE LESS
CONFIDENCE FURTHER INLAND AND EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED...MOSTLY AN INCONVENIENCE AND WELL UNDER AN HOUR IN
LENGTH...PASSING QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COOL FRONT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +12 TO +14C... EXPECT THAT FULL SUNSHINE AND MIXING UP TO
ABOUT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LIGHT MEAN FLOW UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DOMINATE OFF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO... BUT
SHOULD MAKE FOR AN EXCELLENT RECREATION DAY AS PART OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND
DOWNSLOPE / OFF SHORE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE
80S ON MONDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
DOWNSLOPE PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE GENESEE VALLEY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN WARM /LOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/... WITH SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT TO SLEEP WITH THE WINDOWS
OPEN.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EITHER
PUSH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... OR INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AN MCS TRACKING OUT OF
MICHIGAN / MIDWEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF WHICH
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LEAD TIME. STILL TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGING TO AROUND +17C AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS BELOW NORMAL... AS VARIOUS
FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING A SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING
INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ONE OF THE DAY OF THE
WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR FROM A WASHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF JHW LATE. ON SATURDAY...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON A LAKE ERIE BREEZE BEFORE 18Z
TOMORROW...FORMING AND THEN REMAINING S AND E OF A KROC-KJHW-KART
LINE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE CIRCULATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM COLUMBUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE TOWARDS CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO MFD/CAK/YNG THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BE BRIEF AND LIGHT IF THEY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTION
TO CEILING/VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/YNG LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 13Z. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LEFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN STALL AND REMAIN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAVE LOWERED THE AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY AT MIDDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING NORTH BUT THIS MAY ONLY
BE VIRGA. SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER SE INDIANA AND KY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO STARK BUT ODDS SEEM
LOW. MADE A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIGHT SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER ONE IN ILLINOIS AND OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED STABLE SOUNDINGS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR UPPER MOTION.
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE CONVECTION ALLOW MODELS DON`T PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING SO
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR S AND SE. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKS ESE TO BE NEAR THE OH/PA LINE BY 12Z THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT ESE AND SHOULD JUST BE IN THE EXTREME
EAST BY SAT MORNING BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR TO THE
EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BE BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER S/W DROPS SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SNOWBELT BY
DAYBREAK SUN. MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN FOR SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO BE MENTIONED YET.
UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA MON TO
KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO
SPREAD INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE SO WILL PLACE SMALL CHC
POPS THERE LATE MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. THIS DEEP MOISTURE FILLS IN DURING
THE DAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NRN OHIO AND
NWRN PA TODAY HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER TO SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KMFD
TO KYNG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MOST PLACES TONIGHT. DID TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN
FOG/MIST INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK TROF WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
75
&&
.UPDATE...
AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.
THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.
BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.
BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 76 92 76 92 / 50 40 30 20 10
WACO, TX 93 74 92 74 92 / 20 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 86 72 87 73 88 / 100 60 50 30 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 74 91 / 50 40 30 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 91 74 91 75 90 / 60 60 30 20 20
DALLAS, TX 93 76 92 77 93 / 50 40 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 91 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 92 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 72 92 73 91 / 10 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 72 92 73 92 / 40 20 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.
THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY OR AFTER MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT
WILL TRY TO RESTRICT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WILL SHOW VCSH
IN TAFS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN A BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY
WHICH MAY INTERRUPT THE PREVAILING S/SW FLOW EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT
OCCUR ON STATION. WILL SHOW VARIABLE WINDS TEMPO GROUP.
FOR WACO...PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.
BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.
BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 76 92 76 92 / 50 40 30 20 10
WACO, TX 93 74 92 74 92 / 20 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 86 72 87 73 88 / 100 60 50 30 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 74 91 / 50 40 30 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 91 74 91 75 90 / 60 60 30 20 20
DALLAS, TX 93 76 92 77 93 / 50 40 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 91 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 92 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 72 92 73 91 / 10 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 72 92 73 92 / 40 20 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.
NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.
BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.
03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.
BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.
TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.
STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS A 75 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT TRANSLATES
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM THE NORTH. A PRETTY STRONG CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FORT LARAMIE AND WHEATLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THESE ISOLATED CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE CELLS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
IT HAS SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES...EVEN THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
ALL MODELS INDICATE AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 0C LATE ON SUNDAY
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON...AND THEN FALL INTO THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
BY A STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. COULD EVEN SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.
AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY BIG CHANCES IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN
THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS. IF ANYTHING LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE EVEN WETTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGIAN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY
GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOON PATTERN MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT