Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/02/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER SRN NM LATE
LAST NIGHT PUSHED INTO ERN COCHISE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOCORRO AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN
NM...MOVING TO THE SSW. OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION AT ALL. HOWEVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CATCHING ON. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACK TRACKING ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
FEATURE WAS OVER ERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
MOVING S-SW AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY...OR FRONT SIDE..OF THE UPPER
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER UTAH. GOES DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INDICATED 50 KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE 30/00Z OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING...THE NCAR ENSEMBLE RUN FROM 24 HOURS
AGO OR THE 29/00Z RUN WAS HINTING AT THIS HAPPENING THIS MORNING.
SO WHAT ABOUT TODAY? AS I MENTIONED ABOVE THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON
AND WILL BASICALLY USE IT FOR GUIDANCE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING TIME
FRAME. THE 07Z HRRR RUN PUSHES THE CONVECTION IN COCHISE COUNTY
ACROSS ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM BEFORE DYING
OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY BY 8 AM. IF THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL START
OFF GUNKED OVER WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLED FROM THE RAIN THAT
FELL. THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING WILL BE TELLING. AT THIS TIME...AFTER
THE MORNING SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A LOW END TYPE OF MONSOON DAY
WITH BASICALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING W-SW OF
TUCSON. WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES AS THINGS PROGRESS.
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH
DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE ALONG
THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE SLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 4O-45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY -TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DUE TO ONGOING OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS...SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING COCHISE COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BRIEF REPREIVE FROM THE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PINAL
COUNTY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WICKENBURG. THE STORM NEAR
WICKENBURG PRODUCED WINDS ABOVE 65 MPH ALONG WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOW HAS INCREASED IN AREA WASHES
AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THIS EVENING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG
WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION AND POPS WILL BE INCREASED IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS).
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY THE PEAK CHANCES...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
TILT BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW. MODEL LL/ML CAPES OF 700-1100 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE 200/300MB RIDGE
CENTERS BEGIN TO CO-LOCATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE
ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS.
THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
326 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE VERY HOT FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 105-115 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THE EASTERN COASTAL
RANGE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE HOT INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY SO WE HAVE NOT ONLY UPGRADED THE WATCH TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF CONCERN. ANY RESIDENTS OR
VISITORS WHO MAY SEEK RELIEF NEAR SHASTA LAKE OR CLEARLAKE SHOULD
BE AWARE THAT THESE AREAS ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 6-12 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. REDDING AT 3PM WAS 110 WHICH IS NEARING
THE RECORD OF 111 (2014). OUR OTHER CLIMATE SITES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT IT IS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWA...AS PREDICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL THIS MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BORDERS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
FOR TOMORROW ONWARD, MODELS ACROSS THE BOARD REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN THE HOT WEATHER WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BEGIN ITS
RETURN ON THURSDAY ALLOWING THIS AREA TO BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WILL NUDGE DOWNWARD, BUT STILL REMAIN VERY
HOT.
THE CHALLENGE THIS WEEK IS HOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PLAY OUT
IN THE VALLEY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST PROPONENT FOR
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY ON THURS & FRI WITH PW
VALUES RANGING 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES IN OUR REGION. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND 500 MB AND HIGHER SO THERE IS
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE WILL GET ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OR
JUST SPRINKLES IN THE VALLEY INSTEAD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. ANOTHER QUESTION RELATED TO THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS HOW
MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL TRAP HEAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IF MUCH OF THE SKY REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. IF SKIES AREN`T AS CLOUDY AS
EXPECTED, THEN MORE COOLING MAY OCCUR WHICH COULD TRIGGER AN
EARLIER CANCELATION OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
OVER THE WEEKEND, INTERIOR NORCAL IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FOUR
CORNERS UPPER HIGH AND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MAIN INSTABILITY, AND THUS THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, IS DEPICTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS
INTO EARLY EVENINGS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW DRIFTS
NORTHWARD, SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST. AS A RESULT, THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
COOLER. MAX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE DELTA TO
AROUND 100 IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH OVER ROCKIES EXTENDS OVER NORCAL AND CONTINUES
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HOT TEMPS. ISOLD TSTM OVER SIERRA NEVADA
BETWEEN 22Z- 02Z. AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES MAY BE HIGH WED/THU.
JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO MAKE ITS
WAY TOWARD OUR AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A SOLID STRATUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CITIES. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE ARE ALSO PASSING OVER
THE AREA. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER UTAH. IN ADDITION TO THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PRESENT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL PROMOTE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO 26 C TODAY WARMING
TO 26 TO 27 C ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 108 IN SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY VALID TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A GENTLE SEA BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES BY THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THE REPOSITIONING OF THE HIGH A SHOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NIGHT CREW ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY
TO THE FORECAST AND THE TIMING AND LOCATION SEEMS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE
THE STRATUS DECK ACTUALLY IS. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE ONLY CIG AT
KMRY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY CIGS
MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. IMPACT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TOUGH CALL THIS MORNING AS CIGS LINGER ALONG
THE COAST...THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND SAN BRUNO GAP. PREVIOUS
FCST HAD CIGS...BUT CONF IS LESS FOR ACTUAL CIGS THIS MORNING.
LATEST 1KM WRF AND HRRR SHOW CIGS MOVING IN AND IMPACTING KSFO AND
KOAK BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OF CIGS
BUT CONF IS LOW. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LESS CHANCE FOR CIGS. FORECAST VFR THIS AM
AND THIS AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY THROUGH
16-17Z...BUT LESS LIKELY AT KSNS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KSNS CLOSELY
AS CIGS MAY MOVE INLAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.
.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972
MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE TAKEN A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT THE
MAIN MESSAGE OF VERY HOT WEATHER WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONTINUES. THE MONTEREY OFFICE HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THEIR EAST BAY COUNTIES INCLUDING NAPA COUNTY. WILL LOOK AT AREAS
WEST OF OUR WATCH AREA, LIKE SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY, TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST THE HEAT WATCH AND PLAN TO HAVE AN UPDATE OUT BY
NOON.
AS FOR TODAY`S HEAT, REDDING IS FORECAST TO REACH 111 DEGREES
TODAY WHICH IS THE RECORD FROM 2014. MODESTO WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD OF 108 (1950) AS IT IS FORECAST TO HIT 107 TODAY. OTHER
COMMON SITES LIKE STOCKTON, SACRAMENTO, AND RED BLUFF WILL BE A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF THEIR RECORDS TODAY.
THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 1-2 PM. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE REGION AND NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CREST. JBB
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK. HEAT CRANKS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF NORCAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD BRINGING A HOT AIRMASS AND SUPPRESSING ANY REMAINING
COASTAL INFLUENCE INLAND. HIGHS THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 110
TO 115 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S, SO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THAT AREA.
TEMPERATURES WON/T BE QUITE AS HOT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION, BUT THE WARMEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SUMMER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE WILL
BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO ONCE AGAIN DEEPEN
THURSDAY BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF SPREADING SOME COOLING INLAND
LATE IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER ITEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TPW OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST BY THE
GFS, HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE IS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE 500 MBS SO THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF ANY STRONGER LIFTING
MECHANISM APPEARS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
OVER THE WEEKEND, INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MAIN INSTABILITY, AND THUS THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, DEPICTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS INTO
EARLY EVENINGS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS DOWNSTREAM UPPER HIGH PROGRESSES.
THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
COOLER. MAX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE DELTA TO
AROUND 100 IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO NORCAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN
21Z-02Z THEN DRIFT EASTWARD.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
907 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FLOW OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
MINOR DRYING IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY MARINE LAYER STRATUS
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...SCATTERED-TO-FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TWO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVING AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
SONORA AND BAJA. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SPIT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH MAY CREATE SOME BRIEF LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE 14Z HRRR SHOWS THE SECOND
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS BY 1 PM...AND THEN SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A MARINE LAYER
INVERSION AT AROUND 600 FEET...WHICH IS RATHER SHALLOW. THUS...LOCAL
FOG OCCURRED IN SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A
RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES...WITH 714 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN LOCATED
ABOVE 600 MB...WHICH IS RATHER HIGH. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE HI-
RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 20-30 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPILL INTO THE VALLEYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS. THE WRF SHOWS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES BY LATE MORNING...SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO INITIATE THERE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS THEN
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE
PRETTY WARM...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DUE TO
THE CLEARER SKIES AND HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS.
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW FAR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOW INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE COULD MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW...THIS WAVE LOOKS TOO WEAK TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THIS MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE COULD PLAY A FACTOR IN
INHIBITING LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOUD COVER WOULD REDUCE DAY-TIME HEATING...AND
THEREFORE DECREASE THE INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS ALSO WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN BRINGING OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW BECOMES A LOT WEAKER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD
MEAN THAT STORMS WOULD BE SLOW-MOVING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS ALSO
DIMINISHED ON THOSE DAYS...WITH THE GFS ONLY SHOWING UP TO 1.15
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND THE NAM12 SHOWING 0.80 INCHES.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER OUR
AREA...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND EXTREME
WESTERN VALLEYS.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY. THE GFS SHOWS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD STAYING TO OUR EAST...WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST...POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN AND BECOME LESS PATCHY...WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS OVER THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
301550Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 500-1000 FEET
MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FEET MSL...AND DISSIPATING AROUND 1630Z.
STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KSAN TAF FOR
TONIGHT IS MODERATE-HIGH...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS MODERATE.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS.
MTNS/DESERTS...CU/TCU DEVELOPING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO NEAR 30000
FT MSL. LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN OUTFLOW WINDS FROM MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO REACHING THE DESERT TAFS IS
MODERATE-HIGH...SO GUSTY WINDS INCLUDED IN THE KTRM TAF FOR THIS
MORNING. RISK OF KTRM VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW 1 MILE IN BLOWING
DUST IS VERY LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
850 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARD OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATELY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT ALONG WITH A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY AT 500
FEET) HAS LEAD TO GENERALLY CLEAR CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THIS POINT ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S WITH SOME SPOTS MORE THAN 5 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO VERY WARM READINGS ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 850 MB READINGS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 1
TO 2 C WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE A DM. THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT
FORECAST TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S TO
MID 70S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS UP TO THE 90S AND 100 TO 110 RANGE
FOR SPOTS WELL INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM
READINGS IN THE SPS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE
LIST OF CURRENT RECORDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN CENTERS
AROUND POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A
POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVE AND MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE NAM WAS VERY BULLISH WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING ALMOST ALL OF THE
CONVECTION TO OUR EAST. GFS ENDED UP TAKING MORE A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH WITH SOME SHOWERS INDICATED IN OUR CWA WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO ADD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO A PORTION OF OUR AREA ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS. DEFINITELY WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
HIGHS WILL TREND COOLER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND HEADS TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A TYPICAL WIDE SUMMER TIME RANGE WITH 60S AND 70S AT THE
COAST WHILE 80S TO MID 90S REMAIN INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE
THE STRATUS DECK ACTUALLY IS. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE ONLY CIG AT
KMRY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY CIGS
MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. IMPACT WILL BE SHORTLIVED. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TOUGH CALL THIS MORNING AS CIGS LINGER ALONG
THE COAST...THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND SAN BRUNO GAP. PREVIOUS
FCST HAD CIGS...BUT CONF IS LESS FOR ACTUAL CIGS THIS MORNING.
LATEST 1KM WRF AND HRRR SHOW CIGS MOVING IN AND IMPACTING KSFO AND
KOAK BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OF CIGS
BUT CONF IS LOW. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LESS CHANCE FOR CIGS. FORECAST VFR THIS AM
AND THIS AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY THROUGH
16-17Z...BUT LESS LIKELY AT KSNS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KSNS CLOSELY
AS CIGS MAY MOVE INLAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.
.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972
MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
LINGER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS
WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH INLAND SHIFTS
TO THE COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.
THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.
AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED. AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)
ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)
ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.
JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.
POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.
THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED. AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)
ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)
ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.
JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.
POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ITS
WAKE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372...IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM FOR ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ERN PA
HAS ALREADY PROMPTED WARNINGS...AND MAY DO THE SAME IN OUR FAR
WRN REACHES AS PARTIAL CLEARING WORKS ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS AND
QUICKLY DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS WELL GIVEN PROXIMITY OF WARM
FRONT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL VEERING OF WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT INCREASED POP FROM PREV SHORT TERM FCST AND
LOWERED THEM TO NONE FOR EAST OF THE HUDSON. HRRR AND SPC
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/ SUPPORT THE FCST FOR
CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF THE HUDSON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO SKY COVER...WHICH IS CLEAR EAST. SOME CLOUDS
SHOULD SPILL INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT...BUT STILL A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY THERE. NYC IS EXPECT TO BECOME CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING FIRM. AT THE
SURFACE...A RESULTANT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS E ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS WARM FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
EASTERN PA AND INTO NW NJ/SE NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS N&W...AND GUSTY S-SE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND LINGERING 2-FT S SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN PIVOTS NE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
LIFTING NORTH TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TRIPLE PT WAVE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFT AS WELL.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
TRIPLE PT WAVE APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD POSE AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTM LOOKS TO BE WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WARM
FRONT/WAVE LIFTS THROUGH.
IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WAVE...BEST MOISTURE AXIS
APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NW & W OF NYC...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT WAVE. POTENTIAL IS LOW OVERALL...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING INSTABILITY. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE IS COMING
THROUGH...ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY.
SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST
OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.
HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC...HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ISSUES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN
STREAM FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT ON SAT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK.
ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED EVE IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY TSTMS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FROPA WITH PARENT LOW
PRES SYSTEM CUTTING OFF ALOFT AND SFC LOW TRACKING DUE N THU NIGHT.
IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AT ANY
RATE...ALL SOLNS INDICATE THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND GRADUALLY
LIFTING N/NE THU/THU NIGHT LEADING TO A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THU. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TRENDS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER S WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NE PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR FRI. SAT MAY END UP BEING DRY IF THE
HIGH HANGS ON AND KEEPS A FRONTAL WAVE SUPPRESSED TO THE S. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION SUN INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH 22-00Z. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE 20 TO 25
KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE 20 TO 25
KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE AROUND
20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE AROUND
20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO THE LOWER 20S.
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF THE STRONGER NAM SOLN ENDS UP VERIFYING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI...WINDS COULD GET CLOSE. OTHERWISE...A SLY SWELL MAY
BRING SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE 5 FT WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU EVE WITH SUB- SCA CONDS THEREAFTER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BASIN AVG OF
RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING WITH ANY
CONVECTION...WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE PT LOW.
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/TONGUE/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ITS
WAKE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372...IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM FOR ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ERN PA
HAS ALREADY PROMPTED WARNINGS...AND MAY DO THE SAME IN OUR FAR
WRN REACHES AS PARTIAL CLEARING WORKS ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS AND
QUICKLY DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS WELL GIVEN PROXIMITY OF WARM
FRONT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL VEERING OF WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT INCREASED POP FROM PREV SHORT TERM FCST AND
LOWERED THEM TO NONE FOR EAST OF THE HUDSON. HRRR AND SPC
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/ SUPPORT THE FCST FOR
CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF THE HUDSON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO SKY COVER...WHICH IS CLEAR EAST. SOME CLOUDS
SHOULD SPILL INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT...BUT STILL A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY THERE. NYC IS EXPECT TO BECOME CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING FIRM. AT THE
SURFACE...A RESULTANT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS E ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS WARM FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
EASTERN PA AND INTO NW NJ/SE NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS N&W...AND GUSTY S-SE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND LINGERING 2-FT S SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN PIVOTS NE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
LIFTING NORTH TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TRIPLE PT WAVE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFT AS WELL.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
TRIPLE PT WAVE APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD POSE AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTM LOOKS TO BE WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WARM
FRONT/WAVE LIFTS THROUGH.
IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WAVE...BEST MOISTURE AXIS
APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NW & W OF NYC...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT WAVE. POTENTIAL IS LOW OVERALL...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING INSTABILITY. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE IS COMING
THROUGH...ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY.
SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST
OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.
HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC...HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ISSUES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN
STREAM FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT ON SAT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK.
ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED EVE IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY TSTMS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FROPA WITH PARENT LOW
PRES SYSTEM CUTTING OFF ALOFT AND SFC LOW TRACKING DUE N THU NIGHT.
IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AT ANY
RATE...ALL SOLNS INDICATE THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND GRADUALLY
LIFTING N/NE THU/THU NIGHT LEADING TO A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THU. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TRENDS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER S WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NE PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR FRI. SAT MAY END UP BEING DRY IF THE
HIGH HANGS ON AND KEEPS A FRONTAL WAVE SUPPRESSED TO THE S. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION SUN INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SHOWERS LIKELY REMAIN WEST
OF TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH KSWF COULD SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 8Z...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME STRATUS DURING THE SAME PERIOD INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR LIKELY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN FURTHER TO THE ESE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY 17-19Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO THE LOWER 20S.
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF THE STRONGER NAM SOLN ENDS UP VERIFYING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI...WINDS COULD GET CLOSE. OTHERWISE...A SLY SWELL MAY
BRING SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE 5 FT WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU EVE WITH SUB- SCA CONDS THEREAFTER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BASIN AVG OF
RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING WITH ANY
CONVECTION...WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE PT LOW.
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...24/TONGUE/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND ONCE THE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAL CONTINUES ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH FL.
NAAPS SHOWS CONTINUED SAL TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON FRI
BEFORE ANOTHER SAL MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND STRENGTHENS
ESPECIALLY BY JULY 6TH. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE SAL IS ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...SO STRONG PULSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS HAZY, HOT, HUMID AIRMASS. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
AVIATION...
-TSRA WILL PREVAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KAPF BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONVECTION ON THU
AGAIN WILL FOCUS INTERIOR AND TOWARDS GULF COAST, SO ADDED VCTS
FOT THE AFTERNOON FOR KAPF BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ESE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST BY
MID MORNING THU...BUT WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.
ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
731 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
-TSRA WILL PREVAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KAPF BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONVECTION ON THU
AGAIN WILL FOCUS INTERIOR AND TOWARDS GULF COAST, SO ADDED VCTS
FOT THE AFTERNOON FOR KAPF BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ESE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST BY
MID MORNING THU...BUT WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.
ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 77 92 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 90 / 20 20 10 20
MIAMI 79 92 79 91 / 20 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM TAMPA HAS KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFT AS
IT HAS SPREAD EASTWARD. HRRR MODEL STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
END WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO LATE AFT AND
SUNSET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
OCCUR ALONG THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
ANY PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE
AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE THE
DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER GUIDANCE WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THU-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A
POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE
TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET
DUE TO THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.
SAT-MON...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING NEAR
TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO LOW END
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...STORM COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST INTO LATE AFT/EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS FROM KVRB-KSUA. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL DIMINISH
AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA.
ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO
WLY COMPONENT WITH A LIMITED SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING
OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 93 74 93 / 20 40 20 40
MCO 74 95 75 94 / 10 40 20 50
MLB 73 92 75 92 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 72 93 75 92 / 30 30 30 30
LEE 75 94 76 94 / 10 40 20 40
SFB 74 95 76 94 / 20 40 20 40
ORL 75 95 77 94 / 10 40 20 50
FPR 71 93 74 92 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 91 74 92 73 92 / 60 40 50 30 50
PANAMA CITY 87 78 88 76 89 / 50 40 40 30 40
DOTHAN 91 71 92 72 91 / 60 50 50 30 50
ALBANY 92 71 93 71 92 / 60 50 40 30 60
VALDOSTA 91 72 92 73 92 / 60 40 50 30 60
CROSS CITY 90 74 91 73 91 / 50 30 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 88 78 88 77 90 / 50 30 40 30 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.
NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,
&&
.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 71 93 73 / 40 40 40 20
SSI 89 75 89 77 / 30 20 30 30
JAX 92 74 93 73 / 40 20 40 20
SGJ 90 74 89 76 / 40 30 40 30
GNV 91 73 91 73 / 50 20 40 20
OCF 91 73 92 73 / 50 20 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...
WITH SEABREEZES ON BOTH COASTS, FOCUS FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE MOST INLAND
TERMINAL, KTMB, LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLIES ARND
10KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S
WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 93 78 92 78 / 30 30 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 90 79 / 20 20 40 10
MIAMI 92 80 91 78 / 30 20 30 10
NAPLES 93 77 93 77 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1109 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -6 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
LATE THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST PLUS HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THRU THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHWEST OF ORD/MDW AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING INLAND THRU THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING IF THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE AS
FAR INLAND AS ORD/MDW BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO WITH THIS UPDATE FOR
CIGS AROUND 1KFT. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 19Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 19Z...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 19Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 19Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 19Z...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 19Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
FRESHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. A GRADIENT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES BUT
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP IT CONSISTENTLY COOLER BY THE LAKE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S INLAND AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE. MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS FLIPS WINDS TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 19Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 19Z...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 19Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
FRESHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. A GRADIENT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
POPS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
INDIANA. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERS A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGESTING THE BEST
AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF
A RUSHVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN. WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TRACK...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VCTS AFTER 13/14Z AT KSPI AND KDEC. FURTHER
NORTH...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT THE I-74 TAF SITES. THE
ONLY OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERIC
GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED
VISBYS TO AROUND 3SM AFTER 09Z ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
930 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
POPS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
INDIANA. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERS A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGESTING THE BEST
AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF
A RUSHVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN. WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ALL SITES FOR COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING. THEN SKIES SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH JUST SOME CU AROUND.
ONE ISOLATED T-STORM WILL EFFECT DEC FOR AN HOUR SO WILL HAVE
TEMPO GROUP FOR IT WITH VCTS FOR COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE. HIRES
MODELS FORECAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE VCTS WITH SCATTERED CU AT ALL SITES STARTING AT
18Z...AND LASTING TIL AROUND 00Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BUT THEN HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF FOG WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
854 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ADJUST FOR RADAR TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST
WI/EAST CENTRAL MN PER VAPOR IMAGERY. ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND WERE MAINLY LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR IN LASALLE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AT 845 PM.
THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO PULSE AND EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES ALONG EASTERN GRADIENT OF A REGION OF 25-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING IN THESE CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LIVINGSTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WERE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
WELL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POOL MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED PER
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT THIS...WITH
EROSION OF MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA. STILL... THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
224 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE PRIMARY WAVE
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE WHILE NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SE MN WAVE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW LONG ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE CWA WILL SEE. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID
EVENING THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SE MN WAVE MAY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO IT MAY FADE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER SO WILL WORK A BAND OF LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN EXIT THEM TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE ARRIVAL OF POPS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOW
SO MAY NEED TO SPEED THE PROGRESSION UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO GOING INTO
EARLY EVENING SO STAY TUNED. WOULD EXPECT ANY WIND THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES LEAVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE BUT WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A COHERENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH BROADER ASCENT IN PLACE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE BRINGING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF IT. A SECONDARY COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATER...
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKEFRONT
AREAS COOLING LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT WHATEVER LINGERING DEVELOPMENT TO DIMINISH.
DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH
THIS COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES...DID LOWER LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT FOR FURTHER PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO DID REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA OWING TO SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE MORE LIKELY TREND. ALSO LOWERED
SKY COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARER SKIES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BUT WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
FLOW...COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE DRIER TREND WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 50S AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S. WITH
STEERING FLOW KEEPING GENERAL MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 70S AND THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING INTO
FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE
DRY DAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES VARY BUT AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS APPEARING TO BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MOST
AREAS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FOG OVERNIGHT.
* SCATTERED SHRA/ISOL TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATER OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH CONDITIONS ALREADY NEAR SATURATION AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PROGGED TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT...NONE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON FOG AND THE RAW VSBY GUIDANCE FROM THE
MODELS IS HIT OR MISS. TRENDED VSBY DOWN IN THE LATEST VERSION OF
THE TAFS...BUT CONCERNED AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG OF 1/2 TO 1/4
OF A MILE WILL BE IN PLACE IF NOT MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL WATCH
TRENDS OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF FURTHER REDUCTION OF VSBY
IS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECT TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY AROUND MID MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS NE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR
ORD/MDW...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT GYY. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY PEAKS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LIFR VSBY.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
FRESHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. A GRADIENT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
107 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
854 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ADJUST FOR RADAR TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST
WI/EAST CENTRAL MN PER VAPOR IMAGERY. ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND WERE MAINLY LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR IN LASALLE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AT 845 PM.
THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO PULSE AND EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES ALONG EASTERN GRADIENT OF A REGION OF 25-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING IN THESE CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LIVINGSTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WERE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
WELL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POOL MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED PER
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT THIS...WITH
EROSION OF MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA. STILL... THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
224 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE PRIMARY WAVE
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE WHILE NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SE MN WAVE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW LONG ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE CWA WILL SEE. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID
EVENING THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SE MN WAVE MAY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO IT MAY FADE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER SO WILL WORK A BAND OF LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN EXIT THEM TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE ARRIVAL OF POPS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOW
SO MAY NEED TO SPEED THE PROGRESSION UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO GOING INTO
EARLY EVENING SO STAY TUNED. WOULD EXPECT ANY WIND THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES LEAVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE BUT WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A COHERENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH BROADER ASCENT IN PLACE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE BRINGING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF IT. A SECONDARY COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATER...
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKEFRONT
AREAS COOLING LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT WHATEVER LINGERING DEVELOPMENT TO DIMINISH.
DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH
THIS COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES...DID LOWER LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT FOR FURTHER PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO DID REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA OWING TO SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE MORE LIKELY TREND. ALSO LOWERED
SKY COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARER SKIES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BUT WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
FLOW...COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE DRIER TREND WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 50S AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S. WITH
STEERING FLOW KEEPING GENERAL MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 70S AND THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING INTO
FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE
DRY DAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES VARY BUT AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS APPEARING TO BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MOST
AREAS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FOG OVERNIGHT.
* SCATTERED SHRA/ISOL TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATER OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH CONDITIONS ALREADY NEAR SATURATION AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PROGGED TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT...NONE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON FOG AND THE RAW VSBY GUIDANCE FROM THE
MODELS IS HIT OR MISS. TRENDED VSBY DOWN IN THE LATEST VERSION OF
THE TAFS...BUT CONCERNED AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG OF 1/2 TO 1/4
OF A MILE WILL BE IN PLACE IF NOT MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL WATCH
TRENDS OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF FURTHER REDUCTION OF VSBY
IS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECT TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY AROUND MID MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS NE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR
ORD/MDW...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT GYY. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY PEAKS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LIFR VSBY.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
705 PM CDT
WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY. INCREASING SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE NEARSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
WINDOW OF 15 TO 25 KT WINDS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS COOLER
AIR WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. THESE CONCERNS ARE FOR THE NEARSHORE AS
WELL AND IF THE HIGHER SPEEDS AND THEN HIGHER WAVES DO
OCCUR...THEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO SPAN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK
WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
656 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
HANDFUL OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS PACKAGE.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS
INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT.
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN NOTED ON OBSERVATIONS BUT SO FAR
SEEM TO BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. SPS ISSUED
TO HANDLE FOR NOW.
TO THE WEST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO SCOOT SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SLOWLY EAST AND DISSIPATE TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...AFTER 15Z
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO RAMP UP AND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER SETTING THE
STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHC AND FOCUSED BEST SHOT IN THE
EAST WHERE TIMING OF FRONT AND DIURNAL UPTICK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. SOME CONCERN THAT STRATUS WILL HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION MIXING OUT DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SMALL HAIL OR LOCAL STRONGER WIND GUST AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SERIES OF SHRTWV`S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE
AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. THIS TRACK
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
DRY SPELL COULD LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STNRY FRONT LIFTS BACK
N-NE AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER GULF
OF ALASKA MOVG EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHC
MONDAY AS THE CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. WITH FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NE FLOW
DOMINATING... EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK... WITH WAA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SCT SHRA/TS ALSO MOVG THROUGH THE AREA ALONG A MID LEVEL
SHRTWV. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO GRDLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT. SHRA/TS MAY FILL IN SOME AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES BUT BASED ON LATEST HRRR EXPECT BULK OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHRTWV PASSAGE EARLY ENOUGH TO CONT TO LEAVE TS OUT OF
TAFS. SFC CDFNT OVER SRN WI/NRN IL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTN WITH SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS PSBL AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... FOR
NOW JUST BROUGHT IN CIGS AT 020 BUT IFR CIGS ARE PSBL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
STORY REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...THE STORY WILL BE THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST
THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. IN GENERAL A
FEW LIFTING METHODS EXIST...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE IN
THEIR OWN RIGHT...INCLUDING WAA MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SHORT WAVE VORT MAX...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE STRONGEST...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORM IN WESTERN HALF OF IOWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA INTO LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AS THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THIS THE BEST SO FAR...WITH OTHER
HI-RES GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING AGREEING. WITH PRIMARILY AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AND SHOULD BE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. REGARDING SMOKE...HIGHS DID HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING GUIDANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL WERE
NOT TOO FAR OFF. DID NOT DO MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP INTO WED...AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A GRADUAL CHANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVOLVING FROM WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH TO A BROADER MEAN
TROUGH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT ONSET THE FOCUS WILL
BE ON LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN GREAT
LAKES JET AND FORCING WITH CURRENT MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN SHORT WAVE.
WEAK/MODERATE AND FAIRLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WILL PASS THROUGH IA WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL LIMITS HOWEVER SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME WEAK PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO MO/IL
BY 06Z. CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN SOUTH AND WEST INTO THU AND THU
NIGHT WITH JUST TOKEN FORCING IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BUT
CONTINUED AIRMASS STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RELATIVELY
INACTIVE.
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GULF OF AK
LOW PASSING THROUGH WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
INTO FAIRLY BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF WARMING AND INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
TIMING QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL BE REALIZED HOWEVER WITH
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FASTER THAN RESPECTIVE GFS 12Z SOLUTION. ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THUS WILL HIT
POPS THE HARDEST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH HIGH PLAINS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY REACHING IA INTO THE NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO KEEP IT GOING IN SOME FORM INTO MON. GFS
MLCAPES SUGGEST VALUES MAY REACH 2-3K DURING PEAK HEATING. DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION SO SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE THERE...BUT SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FROPA.
OUTSIDE OF WARMING SURGE JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS
PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL TO VARIED DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN
SEEMS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SMOKE WILL STICK AROUND TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...IF NOT ALL AS THE OVERALL FLOW WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
STEERED AWAY FROM OVC SKIES SINCE MANY SITES ARE ONLY SEEING FU/HZ
FROM THE SMOKE. POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS...BUT DRY AIR COMING IN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT MAY PREVENT IT
AT MCW/ALO. SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT FOD/DSM/OTM COULD
SEE VISBYS DROP FOR PERIODS INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...CURTIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.
ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
..08..
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NORTH BY 00Z
WITH FRONT HEADING TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BEST FORCING
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH HRRR AND
VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT BEST SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM NEAR MASON
CITY SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. CURRENT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OVER THE EAST THOUGH WITH
LACK OF SFC TRIGGER...LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...IF AT ALL...UNDER
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER OR OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CAN FIRE CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
THIS EVENING...WILL BE NARROWING POPS/WX OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE DIURNAL SUPPORT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...AM
EXPECTING A LESSENING OF COVERAGE AFT 02Z WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN FIRES
IMPACTING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THICKER LAYER OF SMOKE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER IOWA SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A BRILLIANT SUNSET FOR AREAS WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES WAS THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OTHER CONCERN WAS TEMPS AND HOW THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SMOKE PLUME FROM CANADA.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO CUT ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND SHOULD HOLD OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. PLUS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT IN DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK...MAYBE EVEN SHOVED FURTHER WEST BY THE SURFACE
HIGH...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THE SMOKE FROM CANADA
WILL AFFECT THE MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SINCE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THE
FIRES WILL CEASE. IF SMOKE IS STILL AROUND ON TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY
NEED TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS
MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE LOW POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR VSBY TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.
FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATES
SOUTH AROUND 04Z WITH CONSISTENT SIGNALS FROM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
ON MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING BELOW 2 KFT. MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME FOR KTOP/KFOE AND 06Z FOR KMHK.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR NEAR SUNRISE AT KTOP/KFOE
WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AND WEAKEN INTO NORTHEAST KS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES LEAD TO ADDING A
VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW AND
AFFECT KANSAS AT TIMES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IF ANY STORM DO FORM THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
WINDS SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF
AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND
100 WEDNESDAY THEN AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 90S.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS
THEN LOOK TO ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE
HAYS TERMINAL FROM 06Z-08Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 98 68 92 / 10 20 20 40
GCK 71 98 69 90 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 71 99 70 91 / 0 20 20 40
LBL 72 100 71 92 / 0 20 20 40
HYS 73 97 68 90 / 10 10 20 30
P28 75 100 71 94 / 0 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL STILL BE A WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE EFFECTS CLEAR OUT IN
PLACES LIKE SOMERSET. THE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR SUCH STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MORE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
WFO LMK...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE WX ONES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE FFA AND ZFP/HWO UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER STORMS AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH TRAINING AND HIGH PWATS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO DAMPEN THE START OF THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
MODE OF CONVECTION IN THIS SITUATION IT IS HARD TO BITE TOO HARD
ON ONE SOLUTION SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THIS SCENARIO A BIT IN THE
GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP PRETTY WELL
WITH THE NEIGHBORS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG TO THE GRIDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE
LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO
HIGHLIGHTING THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE...OVER TO STANTON. ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS KEEPING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WEAK COMPARED
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND WILL BE EXITING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS WE MAY
SEE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIE
OFF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL TURN
UPSTREAM TO SEE WHAT CONVECTION FIRES OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND
EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS. MODELS REMAIN VARIABLE ON TRACK OF MCS
TONIGHT. GOING TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE
VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHT
WILL EVOLVE. ANY MCS WOULD LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER VERY UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF
RAIN GOING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
HWO. PW`S ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. THUS...IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING STORMS...THEN A BETTER
FLOODING THREAT MAY BE REALIZED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL
SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VERY IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER AGREE WITH A
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE
PERIOD THAT WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE FRONT AND OVERALL PATTERN
CHANGE STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
SME AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE EVENING STORMS...WHILE
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LIKELY COME
BACK DOWN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT FALLING
BACK TO AT OR NEAR IFR FOR MOST PLACES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE STRATUS COULD BUILD DOWN ONTO
THE RIDGES...CREATING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FOR OUR MOUNTAIN
TOP AIRPORTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION FROM AN MCS THAT MAY ORGANIZE UPSTREAM. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FEATURE TRACKS...WE COULD GET MORE RAIN/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME TO JUMP TO HARD ON THIS IDEA SO FOR NOW HAVE ADDED VCSH
AND VCTS TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AT
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-114>118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
830 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER STORMS AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH TRAINING AND HIGH PWATS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO DAMPEN THE START OF THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
MODE OF CONVECTION IN THIS SITUATION IT IS HARD TO BITE TOO HARD
ON ONE SOLUTION SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THIS SCENARIO A BIT IN THE
GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP PRETTY WELL
WITH THE NEIGHBORS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG TO THE GRIDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE
LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO
HIGHLIGHTING THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE...OVER TO STANTON. ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS KEEPING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WEAK COMPARED
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND WILL BE EXITING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS WE MAY
SEE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIE
OFF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL TURN
UPSTREAM TO SEE WHAT CONVECTION FIRES OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND
EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS. MODELS REMAIN VARIABLE ON TRACK OF MCS
TONIGHT. GOING TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE
VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHT
WILL EVOLVE. ANY MCS WOULD LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER VERY UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF
RAIN GOING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
HWO. PW`S ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. THUS...IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING STORMS...THEN A BETTER
FLOODING THREAT MAY BE REALIZED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL
SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VERY IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER AGREE WITH A
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE
PERIOD THAT WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE FRONT AND OVERALL PATTERN
CHANGE STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
SME AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE EVENING STORMS...WHILE
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LIKELY COME
BACK DOWN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT FALLING
BACK TO AT OR NEAR IFR FOR MOST PLACES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE STRATUS COULD BUILD DOWN ONTO
THE RIDGES...CREATING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FOR OUR MOUNTAIN
TOP AIRPORTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION FROM AN MCS THAT MAY ORGANIZE UPSTREAM. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FEATURE TRACKS...WE COULD GET MORE RAIN/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME TO JUMP TO HARD ON THIS IDEA SO FOR NOW HAVE ADDED VCSH
AND VCTS TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AT
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon. Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through. It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so. The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.
Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed. Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA. What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow. If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after). These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours. Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe. Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores. Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.
The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.
With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.
Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...
Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.
High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.
Monday...
As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas. As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening. There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east. In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.
Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight. There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now. Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1105 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon. Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through. It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so. The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.
Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed. Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA. What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow. If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after). These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours. Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe. Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores. Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.
The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.
With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.
Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...
Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.
High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.
Monday...
As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Do have some reduced visibilities in the KBWG/KLEX corridor. These
should improve over the next hour or two. Next up will be rain
chances. Expect scattered storms to start developing by late
morning, with best coverage in the mid to late afternoon. Tried to
time the tempo groups with the highest rain chances in the public
forecast, with chance for gusty winds and at least MVFR conditions
at KLEX/KSDF. Winds will become variable as storms dies down this
evening. Cannot rule out additional fog Wednesday morning, but that
will depend on timing and location of today`s storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
SEEING AN AREA OF WEAKENING LIGHT ECHOS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD POP UP HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO STILL SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
POP UP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC.
THEREFORE SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP A SLIGHT POP THROUGH DAWN.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE
HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT
DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR.
CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR
AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND
THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME
MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING OUT
THURSDAY WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY DAMPENING. THIS PULL OF NORTHERLY AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING ENHANCED
AREAS OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN SOME MCS
POTENTIAL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DAMPEN THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT WILL KEEP A WEAK NW FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KENTUCKY TO END OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR THIS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK SYSTEM...AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.
AS FOR SENSIBLE CONDITIONS...THE NW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SPARKS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL
OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT REMAIN OVERALL RATHER STATIONARY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS
LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND GENERALLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND TN. THIS IS
WHERE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND MCS POTENTIAL WILL LIE. BY
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THE LOCAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN
ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS TIME AROUND...EXPECT BEST MOISTURE
/RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL/ TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BUT PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IF THE ECMWF MODEL HOLDS TRUE...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING SE ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND THE EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION IS STILL QUITE LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/. STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THESE
MODELS...WHICH LED TO JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG DOSE OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PWATS 2 INCHES AN ABOVE/...AND
POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GFS40.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLD POP UP RAIN SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAWN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SME LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
SEEING AN AREA OF WEAKENING LIGHT ECHOS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD POP UP HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO STILL SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
POP UP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC.
THEREFORE SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP A SLIGHT POP THROUGH DAWN.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE
HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT
DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR.
CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR
AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND
THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME
MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH A MERIDIONAL RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. IN FACT...A RATHER COOL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE PATTERN. THIS SOLUTION IS SHARED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE
MCS TYPE SET UP WITH THE EXTENDED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF SOME CONVECTION DIMINISHING BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX
BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FEATURE SEEMS MORE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO KY...ESPECIALLY WITH A SEEMINGLY
STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS KY. THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT WHILE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE AS WELL AS THE
PATTERN...THE GFS SOUNDING ARE SHOWING LESS INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE ORGANIZATION WITH THESE FEATURE SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST.
PERHAPS THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INABILITY CLEAR OUT THE AREA DUE TO
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE EURO IN
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...THIS
SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY CASE AND HENCE THE MARGINAL MENTION IN THE DAY
3 BY SPC AND THIS MIGHT EVEN PERHAPS BE OVERDONE.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE INSTABILITY SEEMS A BIT BETTER AND
ORGANIZATION WOULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY AND THIS IS SUGGESTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL. FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...BUT ONCE AGAIN LACKING A BIT IN INSTABILITY
SO THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZATION BEING TIED TO THE AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND EURO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE PATTERN AND THE
EURO BECOMING MORE ZONAL OR AT LEAST A MORE FLATTENED FLOW. DUE TO
THIS AND BEING THE LAST 2 DAYS IN THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAN MORE TO A
COMPROMISE OF THE SUPER BLEND AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE RESULT OF THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
ORGANIZED SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE
DIURNAL DOMINATED TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAKENING OR FLATTENING PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY THE
EURO...AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLD POP UP RAIN SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAWN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SME LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
828 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
HAD A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT WITH NOT MAJOR ISSUES. AM IN SLIGHT
QUESTION HOW REPRESENTATIVE THE FLIGHT IS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE RELEASE TIME WAS RIGHT BEFORE RAIN MOVED IN. COULD HAVE SOME
CONTAMINATION AS PRECIP WATER WAS 2.15 INCHES WHICH IS OVER THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO PER SPC`S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE.
THINKING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS...BELOW 600MB...WERE TOO
SATURATED BASED ON HOW MUCH WIND WAS OBSERVED DURING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WINDS IN THIS COLUMN WERE WESTERLY AND IN THE 20 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WERE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND EVEN ACCELERATED IN SOME
CASES THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS
AGREES WILL WITH MAV GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS CLOUD COVER IN THRU
TONIGHT.
MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)...
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. FOR THURSDAY...ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEING COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL LEVELS TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BRINGING
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND POPS WILL BE 30% OR LESS.
ANSORGE
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH SOME CONVECTION ERUPTING
ON GULF BREEZE ADVANCEMENT IN MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WENT CLOSE TO
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE TO TIME LIKELY CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS AT TERMINALS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR 2-3 HOUR
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...PRIMARILY WITH THE EARLIER ONSET CELLS...THOUGH OTHERS MAY
PULSE TO THESE LEVELS WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z.
24/RR
MARINE...
THE EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. WAVES HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2
FEET WITH 3 FEET OCCURRING AT TIMES.
ANSORGE
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 10
BTR 73 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 75 92 75 92 / 20 10 10 10
MSY 75 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 76 90 77 90 / 20 20 10 10
PQL 75 90 75 91 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY STALL OUT ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS ON THURSDAY. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY W/MUCAPES APCHG 300-400 JOULES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
W/THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. 0-6KM SHEAR 30+ KTS W/700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+
C/KM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
W/A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE. DECIDED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CARRIED FOG FOR EVERYWHERE
ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WHERE VSBYS ARE ALREADY AOB 1
MILE.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND WARM HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A NICE DAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE IT SHOULD BE A P/SUNNY DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DOWN EAST. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE M/U 70S
INLAND...BUT A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW/SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING TEMPS COOLER AT THE SHORELINE. HIGH PRES
MOVES EAST ON THE 4TH AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NW LATE IN THE DAY. A LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS THAT MAY TOP 80 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST
MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND MAY
STALL OUT ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE SUN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY SUN ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. THE
FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUN AFTERNOON DOWN EAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION
MON AND TUE WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WED WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR/VFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES TO AS LOW AS IFR/LIFR IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AT KBGR
AND KBHB.
VFR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVE. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN SHOWERS.
VFR MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES IN AREAS
OF FOG THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
TSTM.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR ENDED AS THE COLDEST ON
RECORD AT BANGOR AND TIED FOR THE 7TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. JUNE
WAS A COOL MONTH AND RANKED AS THE 5TH COOLEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR
AND 12TH COOLEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. KCBW RADAR IS DOWN
FOR MAINTENANCE, BUT WE HAD A LIGHT SHOWER MOVE OVER OUR OFFICE,
AND HRRR HAS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO 20
POPS ARE WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND WHAT WAS EXPECTED, BUT
WITH CLOUDS THINNING OUT NOW, THINK THAT THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ARE STILL WITHIN REACH.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NEAREST TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL LOW EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOME LINGERING MVFR AND LOCAL IFR OVER NORTHERN MAINE
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT VFR BY NOON. VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT LOWERING CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR
IFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FOISY/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.
IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXTENDED PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI...FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA MOVING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS SHOW NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SE FM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS INDICATE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO WELL AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH
OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
PASSAGE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON
FCST DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS ECMWF AND GEM-NH INDICATE MLCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE THE NAM SHOWS INLAND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITHOUT REALLY A
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION...SUSPECT NAM AND GFS SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ARE OVERDONE THUS LEADING TO INFLATED
INSTABILITY VALUES. GIVEN PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO TRUST LOWER GEM-NH
AND ECMWF VALUES MORE. NEVERTHELESS WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF
SCENARIOS...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING ESEPCIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOWER CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING FRI EVENING CONVECTION
ENDS WITH EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS MODELS
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS. LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MININAL AND
CONFINED TO WI BORDER COUNTIES IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL AS MID-LVLS OFF
FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY 500-1000 J/KG BUT THAT`S ONLY BECAUSE FCST DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AGAIN THESE DEWPOINTS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN
PATTERN WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MID-LVL RDGG AND LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA AS DEPICTED BY MODELS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FCST PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POP FCST. MOST OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST LATE MON EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SO EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO END
BY THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FM THE PLAINS. SOME OF MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTED ANY PCPN. TUESDAY COULD BE CHILLY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND PASSAGE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH (WITH TEMPS 6-8C)
EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
RETURN SSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RDG BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXTENSIVE IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COVER THE WESTERN
TAF SITES WHICH ARE NEAR OR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MKG BEING BY
THE LAKE SHORE HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AS THE COLF FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THEM DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. LANING AND JACKSON MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TILL AROUND 21Z OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BREIFLY CLEAR
BY MID EVEING BRING VFR TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BUT AS
A SECOND AREA OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS
RETURN... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IFR FRIDAY MORNIG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES
TODAY. HAVE VCSH WORDING IN MOST PLACES THIS MORNING TRENDING TO
VCTS WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO PREDOMINATE SHOWER OR STORM WORDING AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.
HAVE PRECIP ENDING AT 02Z AT ALL SITES.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR THIS MORNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING BIG ISSUES WITH
VISIBILITY AND IN FACT HAVE VFR VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. VSBYS
WILL DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LAKE AT KMKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE KSAW TAF SITE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. CMX AND
IWD WILL HAVE LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THE SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
DECENT AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS STRONGER TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT WORK OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
TO START THE LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATES MOISTURE
LINGERS 950-900MB WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NE WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH AND NEARING
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL HIT UP
CLOUDS MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMOVED CHANCES OF FOG. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THERMAL TROUGH IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPPER LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN PWATS BLO 0.5 INCH AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE COOLER SPOTS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WITH DEEPER MIXING...DWPNTS IN AFTN
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 30S OR 40S. NAM DWPNTS WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE
HIGH BIAS SHOW MID 30S...SO THAT INDICATES HOW DRY THE AIRMASS LOOKS
TO BE. MAY BE MORE CU THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...BUT
TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY POP-UP SHRA.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
UPPER LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT FRONT SLIDING TOWARD
UPR LAKES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES COULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND
FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO APPEARS LIKE ONLY LOW-CHANCES AT THIS
POINT.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THINKING NOW IS THAT JULY 4TH WILL BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. BECOMING WARMER AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +14C
BY END OF SATURDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESUTING INSTABILITY AROUND GIVEN OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +15C. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE MODIFICATION RESTRICTED TO
EASTERN CWA OFF LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS ON
SUNDAY COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEST HALF.
CONSENSUS POPS OF HIGHER CHANCES SEEMED GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPR MICHIGAN. SFC-H85 THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANZED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA NEXT MONDAY...WITH TIMING AND
COVERAGE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
Tonight:
Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.
Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.
Thursday - Friday:
The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.
4th of July Weekend:
Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.
Monday - Wednesday:
The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
Convection will be main concern this evening through around
03Z...warm front will focus these storms that will form around metro
Kansas City and continue to evolve towards the southeast through the
evening. These storms will be capable of producing isolated
tornadoes. KSTJ will have the least chance of convection as the front
is east and south of the KSTJ terminal. Rest of the evening after
storms move south and east will be VFR or MVFR overnight.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
038>040-044>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A STALLED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY IS SEPARATING LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CU DEVELOPING...ALBEIT LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
TO THE CU AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE RECOGNIZING THE
BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING QPF ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES WHICH SO FAR HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. BELIEF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS NOT THERE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THE CU...THUS
LITTLE/LIMITED POPS EARLY ON TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD SUFFICE TO GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING/MCS. MODELS FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEB...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD SEE EVERYONE GET WET AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR ALL.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHED BY THE FIRST WAVE. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BACK SIDE OF DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT WRN
NEBR...AS THE MAIN SFC FRONT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN OKLA.
RETAINED 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS NW FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
SERLY WINDS TO THE REGION.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN PRESENT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT POPS
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING POPS SOME
ACROSS NRN NEBR PER THE GFS OUTPUT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE INCREASED TO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY. LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS OR TWO
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS WRN NEBR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL MONDAY ACROSS
CNTRL KS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BROAD AND BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO SYNOPTIC
SETUP...WITH MODELS FAVORING MOST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WARMER FROM 85 TO 90 THIS WEEKEND LOWER
SLIGHTLY TO 77 TO 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND 12000 FT AGL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z THURSDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE KVTN TERMINAL...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS AND WILL HANDLE THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITH A VCTS GROUP FROM
09Z TO 13Z THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
112 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIMING TOOLS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTL SD COULD BRUSH BOYD COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS FORMING JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN AND THEN KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND UPPER/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD MAKE FOR A FERTILE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WHERE AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES OR MORE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HINGES ON SOME VERY RICH MOISTURE ALOFT
AT 500-100 MB AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWN DRAFTS WITH DRY
AIR BELOW THAT LEVEL. THIS SORT OF THING HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS
THE WRN U.S. LATELY AND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD OUR
TURN. SPC SUGGESTED SWRN SD FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY MODEST GIVEN ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE MT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. 80S TO MID 90S IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING TO 700 MB AND SHOULD PREVENT SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
NEAR THE SFC.
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD DRAW SMOKE INTO
THE FCST AREA. HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS CNTL/WRN
CANADA AND ALASKA. LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND THE SREF SHOWS
STRATUS AROUND VALENTINE AND ONEILL BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 700MB WILL STILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING WAVE WHICH WILL RETURN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
60S. COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING
IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FIGHT OVER THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RICH SURFACE THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD AND
POOLING IT ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS...LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A DRIER
SOLUTION AND MUCH LESS UNSTABLE. EITHER WAY...THE PRESENCE OF
35-45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST TURNS DRY FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHIFTS EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF AN KVTN TO KBBW LINE. CHANCES
DIMINISH IN THE MORNING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW GREATLY
DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY
TOWARDS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO
NO MENTION IN THE TAF YET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIMING TOOLS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTL SD COULD BRUSH BOYD COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS FORMING JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN AND THEN KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND UPPER/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD MAKE FOR A FERTILE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WHERE AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES OR MORE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HINGES ON SOME VERY RICH MOISTURE ALOFT AT
500-100 MB AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWN DRAFTS WITH DRY AIR
BELOW THAT LEVEL. THIS SORT OF THING HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LATELY AND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD OUR TURN. SPC
SUGGESTED SWRN SD FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY MODEST GIVEN ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE MT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. 80S TO MID 90S IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING TO 700 MB AND SHOULD PREVENT SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE SFC.
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD DRAW SMOKE INTO
THE FCST AREA. HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS CNTL/WRN
CANADA AND ALASKA. LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND THE SREF SHOWS STRATUS
AROUND VALENTINE AND ONEILL BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 700MB WILL STILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
WHICH WILL RETURN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FIGHT OVER THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RICH SURFACE THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD AND
POOLING IT ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS...LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A DRIER SOLUTION
AND MUCH LESS UNSTABLE. EITHER WAY...THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST TURNS DRY FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF KBBW
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. THEREAFTER THE SREF SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
331 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIMING TOOLS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTL SD COULD BRUSH BOYD COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS FORMING JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN AND THEN KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND UPPER/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD MAKE FOR A FERTILE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WHERE AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES OR MORE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HINGES ON SOME VERY RICH MOISTURE ALOFT AT
500-100 MB AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWN DRAFTS WITH DRY AIR
BELOW THAT LEVEL. THIS SORT OF THING HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LATELY AND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD OUR TURN. SPC
SUGGESTED SWRN SD FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY MODEST GIVEN ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE MT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. 80S TO MID 90S IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING TO 700 MB AND SHOULD PREVENT SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE SFC.
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD DRAW SMOKE INTO
THE FCST AREA. HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS CNTL/WRN
CANADA AND ALASKA. LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND THE SREF SHOWS STRATUS
AROUND VALENTINE AND ONEILL BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 700MB WILL STILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
WHICH WILL RETURN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FIGHT OVER THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RICH SURFACE THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD AND
POOLING IT ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS...LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A DRIER SOLUTION
AND MUCH LESS UNSTABLE. EITHER WAY...THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST TURNS DRY FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE SPARSE...WILL HANDLE STORMS WITH A VCTS. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 01Z WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB30 GROUP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK AREA ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /
SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER
AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/87/87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS ARE STILL
ONGOING...MOSTLY IN THE CENTRAL PORRTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AS STORMS LIKELY DIMINISH BY 30/0900UTC. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO...DRIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME. STORMS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...832 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS/QPF AND DROP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12
SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD TOPS TO OUR WEST HAVE
BEEN STEADILY WARMING LATE THIS EVE AND THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
RATHER STABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OR SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THE SPARSE CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COAST...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW A FEW ECHOES
PERHAPS SURVIVING TOWARD MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN OR BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH MODEST JETTING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ON
THE ORDER OF 25 KT...SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED. WE EXPECT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL LONG WAVE H/5 TROUGH PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT
THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W VALUES UP AROUND 2
INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS WE CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE IFFY SO DO NOT THINK WE CAN YET PIN DOWN WHEN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN. OTHER TRIGGERS TO CONVECTION
WILL ALSO EXIST...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PICTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW LEAVING A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ACT TO DEEPEN LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE SHEER
AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALSO WILL
DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND DEBRIS CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST MON INTO TUE AND SHOULD
PUSH ANY LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST. THEREFORE MAY SEE
LESS COVERAGE FOR TUE BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT OR MAY ENHANCE LEESIDE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN COME WED.
OVERALL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO 90
DURING THE DAY AND 70 TO 75 AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF KFLO/KLBT SHOULD
WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SE TO THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT. BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JETTING
ON THE ORDER OF 25 KT AHEAD OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE SW. THESE WIND SPEEDS AND THEIR PERSISTENCE
WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 5 FT SEAS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH INLAND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PUMP WINDS UP INTO THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WE
WILL POST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND MAIN MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY
TO REACH INTO OUR WATERS...BUT SHOULD ACT TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT FLOW
INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
SAT AFTN BUT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO INCREASE
WINDS AGAIN THROUGH SAT AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS UP NEAR 5 FT IN
OUTER WATERS WITH SOME 6 FTERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...TO
DECREASE DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT AND KEEP ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AND
FLOW MAY BECOME MORE OFF SHORE WHICH WILL DROP SEAS EVEN FURTHER.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.
SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.
LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. BKN VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK
AND POSSIBLY KILN.
SKIES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING IN A LESS FAVORABLE
AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
127 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LOW WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A LOW
CUTTING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE GENERALLY ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OHIO OUT OF THE CWA AND TO NOSE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE CWA. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS LOST
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY BUT HAS
SPARKED SHOWERS OVER A BROADER AREA TO THE WEST OF I-75 AND N OF
I-70. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF EAST AND
MODELS ARE SLOW IN THE INITIATION OF STORMS TODAY BUT INDICATE A
RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE REGION AS SUN HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED THE EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK. PREV DISC BELOW...
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. BKN VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK
AND POSSIBLY KILN.
SKIES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING IN A LESS FAVORABLE
AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
911 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LOW WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A LOW
CUTTING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE GENERALLY ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OHIO OUT OF THE CWA AND TO NOSE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE CWA. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS LOST
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY BUT HAS
SPARKED SHOWERS OVER A BROADER AREA TO THE WEST OF I-75 AND N OF
I-70. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF EAST AND
MODELS ARE SLOW IN THE INITIATION OF STORMS TODAY BUT INDICATE A
RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE REGION AS SUN HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED THE EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK. PREV DISC BELOW...
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS...AND SATURATED
LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KILN...KDAY...KCMH...AND
KLCK THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z.
FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK
HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE
IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS.
BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A TROUGH OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
NEAR SANDUSKY OHIO...BUT GENERAL NEBULOUS LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE SAME
REGION...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
THE FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO UPPER 50S...WITH
NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT VIRTUALLY ALL OBSERVATION
SITES IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA (SANS A NOTABLY CLEAR SPOT NEAR
CINCINNATI AND TO THE SOUTHWEST). SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES HAVE
REPORTED DENSE FOG FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...BUT NOT WITH MUCH
PERSISTENCE. IN GENERAL...THE DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME...FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...FOG HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE TRULY DENSE FOG MAY
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA.
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS...AND SATURATED
LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KILN...KDAY...KCMH...AND
KLCK THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z.
FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK
HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE
IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS.
BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A TROUGH OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
NEAR SANDUSKY OHIO...BUT GENERAL NEBULOUS LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE SAME
REGION...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
THE FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO UPPER 50S...WITH
NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT VIRTUALLY ALL OBSERVATION
SITES IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA (SANS A NOTABLY CLEAR SPOT NEAR
CINCINNATI AND TO THE SOUTHWEST). SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES HAVE
REPORTED DENSE FOG FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...BUT NOT WITH MUCH
PERSISTENCE. IN GENERAL...THE DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME...FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...FOG HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE TRULY DENSE FOG MAY
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA.
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA. IT
APPEARS THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK
TERMINALS WHERE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST INTO MID
MORNING. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK
HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE
IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS.
BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
644 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
OF 10Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT RAISING
OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET IN VICINITY OF
KAOO AT 10Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU THIS AM.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT
LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE
A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT
LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL
WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3
INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC MRGL RISK OF
SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX ARND
MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER LVL TROUGH JUST
WEST OF PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PM HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THU/SAT/MON. HOWEVER...CAN/T
RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES FRI/SUN...IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SW TO NE IN ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE AS A WELL- DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH
12Z. LOW LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND
WILL BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AS OF 06Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT RAISING OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET ACROSS SW PA AT
06Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS AM.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY THIS AM FROM THE U50S ACROSS
THE N MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT
LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE
A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT
LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL
WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3
INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SW TO NE IN ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE AS A WELL- DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH
12Z. LOW LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND
WILL BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
253 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AS OF 06Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT RAISING OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET ACROSS SW PA AT
06Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS AM.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY THIS AM FROM THE U50S ACROSS
THE N MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT
LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE
A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT
LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL
WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3
INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT TO ALL BUT SE COUNTIES AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOW
LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND WILL
BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MAINLY
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRIGGERING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 EDT...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY PREVAILS AROUND
THE AREA WITH NO LIGHTNING. DIURNAL COLLAPSE OF CAPE HAS LED TO A
MARKED REDUCTION IN THE PROSPECT FOR LIGHTNING...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.
AS OF 800 EDT...SHOWERS HAVE DECLINED IN MOST AREAS WITH THE ONLY
ACTIVITY STILL PRODUCING LIGHTNING CURRENTLY NEAR ELBERT AND ABBEVILLE
COUNTIES. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND FURTHER LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 2AM
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WHERE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR ARE FORECAST BY HRRR TO CONTINUE AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST SKY AND TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS...AND TO REPRESENT THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AS OF 515 PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE EXTENT
MAY BE LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES DECLINE DIURNALLY AS PRECIP. MOVES
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. HRRR GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG AS IT HAS
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN NOW OBSERVED...BUT THE BASIC TREND
OF ESE MOVEMENT AND DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER 10PM SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER CAMS. LATEST NEAR TERM
POPS REFLECT CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND THROUGH 6Z.
AT 215 PM...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS AT THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT. CAPES
OVER EASTERN TN ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000J SO IT IS MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A WATCH IN PLACE ABUTTING OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO OUR NE GA...WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOME OF OUR NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY <1000J OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE AROUND 60...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR THERE. I HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 23Z AND MOVING EASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NC BORDER COUNTIES AND THEN LIKELY
AS FAR EAST AS I-26. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THU IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/QPF. NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTH GA/SE TN LATE TONIGHT APPARENTLY USING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM TODAY`S MCS AS A TRIGGER. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ENHANCED QPF. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE NAM AND
INCREASE POPS LATE TONIGHT WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HENCE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ON THU. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WIND AND
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEKS...INVERTED-V BELOW H8...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC POPS EAST.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND EARLY ONSET OF
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ON SAT...4TH OF JULY...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE VIRGINAS. BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS
WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATX REGION TO NORTHERN MS/AL BY SUNRISE SAT.
12Z NAM AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE
CONVECTION 12Z SAT. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE CONVECTION
EAST...REACHING THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER WITH 30 TO 40 POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO
THE U80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AMID
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THOUGH A LACK OF DISCERNIBLE UPPER FORCING OVER THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SHOULD KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. POPS WILL THEREFORE
BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER HIGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SAME TIME...THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST IN THE TIMING OF SOME OF THESE
FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOURCES OF WEAK FORCING ABOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THEREFORE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. PROFILES ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AND THOUGH NO DAY STANDS OUT AS HAVING ESPECIALLY HIGH
QPF...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WHOLE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE PERIOD COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LACK OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT TENDENCIES LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS STAYING NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MAIN CONCERN IS CHANCES FOR THUNDER NEAR
TERM AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STAYING WELL AWAY FROM TAF
SITES. FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS MODELS...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 6Z OR SO TONIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER. SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A LARGE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
INSTABILITY...WINDSHEAR...AND QG FORCING WILL ALL BE SIMILAR
TOMORROW TO WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY. HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INITIATION IS AGAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE BLUERIDGE
MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICAL
FORCING AND VARIOUS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...TRW ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS.
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...LG/WJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRIGGERING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 EDT...SHOWERS HAVE DECLINED IN MOST AREAS WITH THE ONLY
ACTIVITY STILL PRODUCING LIGHTNING CURRENTLY NEAR ELBERT AND
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND
FURTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 2AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR ARE FORECAST
BY HRRR TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SKY AND TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS...AND TO REPRESENT THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AS OF 515 PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE EXTENT
MAY BE LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES DECLINE DIURNALLY AS PRECIP. MOVES
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. HRRR GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG AS IT HAS
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN NOW OBSERVED...BUT THE BASIC TREND
OF ESE MOVEMENT AND DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER 10PM SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER CAMS. LATEST NEAR TERM
POPS REFLECT CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND THROUGH 6Z.
AT 215 PM...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS AT THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT. CAPES
OVER EASTERN TN ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000J SO IT IS MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A WATCH IN PLACE ABUTTING OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO OUR NE GA...WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOME OF OUR NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY <1000J OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE AROUND 60...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR THERE. I HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 23Z AND MOVING EASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NC BORDER COUNTIES AND THEN LIKELY
AS FAR EAST AS I-26. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THU IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/QPF. NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTH GA/SE TN LATE TONIGHT APPARENTLY USING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM TODAY`S MCS AS A TRIGGER. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ENHANCED QPF. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE NAM AND
INCREASE POPS LATE TONIGHT WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HENCE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ON THU. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WIND AND
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEKS...INVERTED-V BELOW H8...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC POPS EAST.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND EARLY ONSET OF
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ON SAT...4TH OF JULY...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE VIRGINAS. BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS
WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATX REGION TO NORTHERN MS/AL BY SUNRISE SAT.
12Z NAM AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE
CONVECTION 12Z SAT. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE CONVECTION
EAST...REACHING THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER WITH 30 TO 40 POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO
THE U80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AMID
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THOUGH A LACK OF DISCERNIBLE UPPER FORCING OVER THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SHOULD KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. POPS WILL THEREFORE
BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER HIGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SAME TIME...THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST IN THE TIMING OF SOME OF THESE
FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOURCES OF WEAK FORCING ABOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THEREFORE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. PROFILES ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AND THOUGH NO DAY STANDS OUT AS HAVING ESPECIALLY HIGH
QPF...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WHOLE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE PERIOD COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LACK OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT TENDENCIES LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS STAYING NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MAIN CONCERN IS CHANCES FOR THUNDER NEAR
TERM AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STAYING WELL AWAY FROM TAF
SITES. FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS MODELS...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 6Z OR SO TONIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER. SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A LARGE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
INSTABILITY...WINDSHEAR...AND QG FORCING WILL ALL BE SIMILAR
TOMORROW TO WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY. HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INITIATION IS AGAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE BLUERIDGE
MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICAL
FORCING AND VARIOUS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...TRW ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS.
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 16%
KGSP MED 77% HIGH 92% MED 68% LOW 16%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 94% MED 77% LOW 13%
KHKY MED 69% HIGH 100% MED 70% LOW 11%
KGMU MED 77% HIGH 92% MED 68% LOW 16%
KAND MED 77% HIGH 87% MED 69% LOW 16%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...LG/WJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALIENED N-S ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CURVATURE AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST NORTH OF
THE MID STATE ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD
BE EXITING THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WILL OPT TO CLEAR THE
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR AND
MODELS ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH REDEVELOPMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH A BROAD TROUGH INDUCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED NT INTO THU...SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ORGANIZING
AND LIFTING OUR WAY. UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE SEGMENTED AND
LEAD TO A SLOWER EASTWARD EVOLUTION IN TERMS OF THE SFC LOW
MOVEMENT. CURVATURE AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MO AND BRING AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO AREAS WEST OF THE MID STATE. SFC LOW
WILL THEN UNDERGO W-E ELONGATION WHICH WILL PREVENT THE EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST...COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT AREA
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS. FOR NOW THOUGH...NO WATCH IS NEEDED.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN ALONG WITH
SEGMENTATION. GFS ELUDES TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW FORMING ALONG THE
CHAIN. THEREFORE...MORE OF THE SAME WITH A DESCENT SHOT
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO LOOK A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BOOST ARE HEIGHTS A BIT. COULD SEE TEMPS REACH NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 69 83 68 82 / 20 60 70 70
CLARKSVILLE 68 83 68 81 / 20 60 80 70
CROSSVILLE 64 76 62 76 / 30 60 70 80
COLUMBIA 68 85 69 82 / 20 60 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 68 84 69 81 / 20 60 70 70
WAVERLY 68 84 69 81 / 20 60 80 70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION... TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALIENED N-S ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURVATURE AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF THE MID STATE ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WILL OPT TO CLEAR THE
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR AND MODELS
ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH REDEVELOPMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH A BROAD TROUGH INDUCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED NT INTO THU...SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ORGANIZING
AND LIFTING OUR WAY. UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE SEGMENTED AND
LEAD TO A SLOWER EASTWARD EVOLUTION IN TERMS OF THE SFC LOW
MOVEMENT. CURVATURE AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MO AND BRING AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO AREAS WEST OF THE MID STATE. SFC LOW
WILL THEN UNDERGO W-E ELONGATION WHICH WILL PREVENT THE EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST...COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT AREA
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS. FOR NOW THOUGH...NO WATCH IS NEEDED.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN ALONG WITH
SEGMENTATION. GFS ELUDES TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW FORMING ALONG THE
CHAIN. THEREFORE...MORE OF THE SAME WITH A DESCENT SHOT
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO LOOK A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BOOST ARE HEIGHTS A BIT. COULD SEE TEMPS REACH NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-STATE...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-65 BEING FAVORED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE IS ALREADY PRESSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WIDESPREAD STORM
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND IT IS DEPICTING MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH WANING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND CERTAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH FLASH FLOODING SHOULD TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION UPDATE.../12Z TAFS/
KBNA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXCEPT FOR IF/WHEN TSRA IMPACT THE TERMINAL. BEST TIMING
FOR TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z-01Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SO INCLUDED A VCTS AT THIS TIME.
KCKV AND KCSV...SAME AS KBNA ABOVE WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. HOWEVER THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING
AFTER 08Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AT 07Z WILL
WORK EAST AND TRY AND MOVE OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT 2 TO 3 OF HOURS
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.
AT 0730Z WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME BACK BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS
CANNON COUNTY SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE. CONVECTION DOWN ALONG THE
ALABAMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST AND TAKE ON A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP IT MORE ON THE ALABAMA
SIDE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. CONVECTION IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
AND CONVECTION STRADDLING THE ALABAMA BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CURRENTLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WILL GENERALLY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS NEXT 12 HOURS BUT SHARP
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN
INSITU FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE TRANSIENT
ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AROUND ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS AT A MORE SEASONAL LEVEL AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN
NASHVILLE IS 88 AND THE NORMAL LOW IS 67. NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOME HEFTY QPF NUMBERS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AS MUCH AS 3+ INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG A 75 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR STRADDLING INTERSTATE
24...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 87 69 83 70 / 40 20 70 70
CLARKSVILLE 86 68 80 69 / 40 20 70 80
CROSSVILLE 80 64 78 67 / 60 30 70 70
COLUMBIA 88 68 84 70 / 40 20 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 87 68 84 70 / 40 20 70 70
WAVERLY 87 69 82 70 / 40 20 70 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
AT MID EVENING...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
BENTON/CARROLL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND FROM THE
MEMPHIS METRO AREA TO ALCORN COUNTY MS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELPED INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE
STORMS.
EVEN WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
ADJUST POPS/QPF/SKY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. QUICK LOOK
AT EARLY 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH WED/THU AS POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90...A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 100+ KT JET AT
250 MB LOCATED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. TONIGHT
MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG DYING SURFACE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
AFTER ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...DIURNAL FORCING MAY CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE MID-WEAK SYSTEM SLIPS FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WOBBLES ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY THE WEEKEND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...ESPECIALLY IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD GRADUALLY HEAD NORTH ALLOWING FOR A MORE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS.
BELLES
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MEM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR. EVENTUALLY...COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SHUNTING STORMS SOUTH. TUP WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z AS COVERAGE INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THEN AGAIN AFTER 16Z WED. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN IN THE 30-HOUR SITES FOR WED. S/SE WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN
5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. IN OR NEAR CONVECTION WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KSAT/KSSF AROUND 07Z-08Z THEN
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CIGS FOR KAUS. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z-18Z WED. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z-
16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 74 93 74 92 / 40 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 73 92 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 90 73 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 91 / 30 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 92 / 40 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 91 / 50 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 74 92 / 50 10 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 74 93 74 92 / 40 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 73 92 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 90 73 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 91 / 30 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 92 / 40 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 91 / 50 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 74 92 / 50 10 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS IT MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
MARFA PLATEAU AT 30/1345Z. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WE COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MAX HEATING...SO WILL
LEAVE LOW ORDER POPS THERE. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVELS
OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...AND OTHERWISE TWEAKED
SKY COVERAGE. AN UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 90 70 94 69 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 93 65 97 69 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 92 72 90 71 / 30 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 68 95 68 / 30 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 85 64 91 68 / 20 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 91 65 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 86 57 88 59 / 30 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 90 69 94 70 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 89 70 94 69 / 20 0 0 0
WINK TX 95 70 97 71 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 94 70 94 69 / 40 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 93 65 97 69 / 40 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 91 72 90 71 / 20 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 68 95 68 / 30 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 87 64 91 68 / 30 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 90 65 93 67 / 40 0 0 0
MARFA TX 87 57 88 59 / 30 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 92 69 94 70 / 30 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 92 70 94 69 / 30 0 0 0
WINK TX 95 70 97 71 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 94 72 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 95 68 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 93 71 92 70 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 92 69 93 66 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 85 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 91 66 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 86 58 88 58 / 10 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 93 71 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 93 71 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 94 71 98 68 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
AVIATION...
WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW HAS PASSED TERMINALS
SWITCHING WINDS TO NERLY FOR THE TIME. NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS RETURNING
SOUTHERLY BY TUE AFTN.
.UPDATE...
AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AREA AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN IT TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BACKS UP THE SW MOVEMENT OF THIS COMPLEX.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. ALSO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REFLECT THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND A SOMEWHAT STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS. ALL OF THESE
WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BELIEF IS THAT THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
ANY CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME MIXING
HAS INCREASED THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH AND COMPUTER MODELS PLACE
CLOUD BASES SOMEWHERE AROUND 7000 FEET AGL AND WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS... EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EARLY
ON. CONVECTION MAY LAST PAST MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS
LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM MOVES SOUTH OVER
THE AREA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND A BIT WARMER AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE STILL IS
SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BUT A LACK OF BOTH FORCING AND
SURFACE FEATURES TO SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS PRECLUDES PUTTING
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTION COULD EASILY MAKE A RETURN LATER THIS
WEEK AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
DRIVING MUCH OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WHICH COULD
PRIMARILY LEAD TO STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE COULD EVEN SEE A WASH OUT FOR THE JULY 4
FESTIVITIES WHICH HAS BEEN KNOW TO OCCUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST WILL LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
CONVECTION MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY KEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...WEST TEXAS MAY BE SPARED FROM THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 67 94 / 20 0 0 10
TULIA 65 92 69 94 / 20 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 66 92 68 92 / 20 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 66 92 68 93 / 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 68 92 70 93 / 20 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 65 91 66 93 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 66 93 67 93 / 20 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 71 97 74 98 / 30 0 0 0
SPUR 68 93 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 71 96 73 96 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
74/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.
FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT ALL AREA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
THUNDERSTORM FREE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS OVER MARSHALL AND BRYAN COUNTIES ARE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
AN AXIS OF LARGER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO
CURRENT OBJECTIVE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR STORMS DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RESERVOIR OF CAPE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOR TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE QUITE A BIT
OF CAPE/ENERGY FOR STORMS WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WE STILL NEED SOME LIFT TO CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS
LIFTING MECHANISM...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IF A
LIFTING MECHANISM BECOMES MORE APPARENT TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES AS FORECAST...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING STORMS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FORCING FOR THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE
ADDED LIFT FOR STORM FOCUS. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY
DISTINGUISHABLE BOUNDARY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH JACK...WISE...DENTON AND COLLIN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY GENERIC
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
MUGGY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD APPROACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY
SUNSET. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH OVERALL WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.
THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTH TEXAS REMAINING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM EITHER FOR LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE...THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE WEEK...THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-102 RANGE
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE...INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS FAR
SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRI/SAT BUT MAY NEED TO
BUMP THESE UP IF IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL COME FARTHER
SOUTH. EITHER WAY...THINK ITS PROBABLY A GOOD BET THAT SOME
LINGERING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 73 92 73 92 75 / 30 20 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 95 74 94 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 77 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 74 93 74 93 75 / 30 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 92 74 93 74 / 30 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 91 72 92 72 / 20 20 5 20 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 72 95 73 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015
.AVIATION...
/05Z TAFS/
Convective activity over the central portion of West Central
Texas should still ongoing at KSJT by the time of TAF issuance
with conditions improving soon after. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue over the northern terminals through the next 24
hours with ceilings lowering to MVFR at the southern terminals
after daybreak and improving to VFR by late morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/
UPDATE...
Increased POPs for the overnight period.
DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a northwest
moving outflow boundary across portions of the Heartland and
eastern Concho Valley late this evening. Another area of showers
and thunderstorms over northwest Texas is drifting south towards
the Big Country. Latest HRRR brings this activity southwest
across the western Big Country overnight but is of little help
with the convection over eastern sections. Should see the
convection over eastern sections linger for a few more hours,
while convection farther north may linger well into the overnight
hours as it continues to drift south with time.
POPs were increased generally north of a Sweetwater to San Saba
line for the overnight period. No severe weather is expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to slow moving cells
and PW values in excess of 1.5 inch.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions and light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An interesting forecast setup is in place for tonight. This
afternoon, an outflow boundary stretched from Elk City, Oklahoma to
near Lubbock. South of this boundary, dewpoints are in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Water vapor analysis also shows a mid-level vorticity
maximum diving south along the Colorado/Kansas border. This
disturbance will enter the Panhandle by evening, at which time
models develop convection across that area. With northerly flow
aloft, any convection which develops here will dive south across the
region. Additionally, mainly southeast surface winds will persist
overnight, helping maintain good low to mid level convergence into
the thunderstorms as they dive south.
For Tuesday, the overnight convection is expected to diminish by mid
morning. Outflow boundaries from this may set up across our
southeast counties, which may help act as a focus for
showers/thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A tropical
disturbance moving through South Texas may also aid in thunderstorm
development across this area. As a result, POPs were retained
through the afternoon for areas south of a Sonora to Brownwood line.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Not too much has changed from previous forecasts for the long term
period. An amplified upper-level ridge across western parts of the
country will build east, stretching from the west coast to the
southeastern states for the middle of the work week. This will
result in subsidence aloft and lower surface dewpoints, effectively
ending our precipitation chances for a couple of days. During this
time, a decrease in cloud cover and rising upper-level heights will
allow afternoon high temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s.
For Friday through the weekend, the ridge to our north will weaken
and break into two pieces, with one piece remaining across the
Intermountain West, and another center of high pressure located over
the southeast states. In between these features, a weak cold front
will approach the area from the north. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along/ahead of it, which may affect the area
for the holiday weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 94 72 94 73 95 / 10 30 10 5 0
San Angelo 92 71 92 70 93 / 10 20 10 5 5
Junction 90 71 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...
BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.
THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BLACKSBURG AWOS (KBCB) WERE NOT
AVAILABLEDUE TO A COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGE AT THE AIRPORT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
BEEN MONITORING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH MN/IA TODAY
AND THE ONGOING BATTLE BETWEEN FORCING AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS. OVER
THE PAST HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A BIT BETTER RESPONSE TO THE
FORCING AND 50DBZ ECHO IN NERN IA...AND LIGHT RAIN. SO FAR NO
LIGHTNING. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THAT SYSTEM OUT THROUGH
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARING UPSTREAM
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS TO HAVE ALL CLEAR
SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE...NORTH OF MN/IA BORDER TO RICHLAND
COUNTY BY ABOUT 7-8 PM.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DEEP LIGHT WINDS TO 10KFT WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS LIKELY. THIS MAKES RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MISS
POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY IN THE WI RIVER. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MISS RIVER WERE NEAR 50F AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
20F...DEFINITELY CAN BE OVERCOME /RESEARCH SHOWS 35F DEPRESSION
IS HARD TO OVERCOME/. WHILE IT IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE YEAR FOR FOG
/MAINLY BECAUSE OF SHORT DARKNESS HOURS/...HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY
FOG IN THE VALLEYS/TRIBS...A BIT MORE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY.
WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 WILL FAVOR A MOISTURE FLUX AS WELL.
THIS FOG COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. IN CENTRAL WI...HAVE
DRASTICALLY LOWERED THE LOWS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THIS MORNINGS
LOWS...IN THE 30S.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
NORTHEAST MT AT 20Z. THIS TROUGH WILL TRAVEL A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS WAVE PER 01.12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH IOWA DURING THE DAY AND AT LEAST GENERATE CLOUDS
WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS IS A STRONG WAVE AND DO HAVE A BIT OF
CONCERN THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS A
BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD AND LOWERED HIGHS IN
NERN IA THURSDAY...BUT AM HOLDING OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
WARM UP BEGINS FRIDAY AFTER WHAT COULD BE ANOTHER QUITE COOL NIGHT
IN WI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE LOWERED THE CENTRAL WI AREA LOWS
BUT THEY MAY NEED TO COME DOWN MORE.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND BY LATER AFTERNOON...MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A TRAJECTORY FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND PRE-
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO BUILD TO NEAR
1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT IN NWRN
WI TO THE TWIN CITIES. WHILE THE 01.12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM /PROBABLY BECAUSE OF ITS HYPER DEWPOINTS/...THERE IS
CONSISTENT CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 0-2KM SUGGESTED BY THE 01.12Z
MORNING MODEL SUITE. THE NAM 4KM NEST HAS AN ISOLATED-SCT TSRA
LINE APPROACHING THE NW FORECAST AREA BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THE 01.12Z
ECMWF HAS SIMILAR TIMING BUT IS WEAKER WITH THE CONVERGENCE...
WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. BOTTOM LINE IS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT ISNT TERRIBLY EXCITING. HAVE ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE EXTREME NORTH-NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA.
THIS WEAK FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON JUST WHERE IT ENDS UP...SRN/CENTRAL/NRN WI...BUT
IT COULD PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED TSRA DURING
THE DAY. AGAIN...THIS ISNT TERRIBLY EXCITING BUT GRB/MKX/ARX HAVE
ALL COLLABORATED A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE LARGER
EVOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD OVERWHELM THE FRONT BY EVENING...DIMINISHING TSRA
CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS A TREND TOWARD A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
BEEN PULLED FOR SUNDAY WITH GOOD CONSENSUS THAT TIMING WILL BE
LATER....MAINLY MONDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE SLOWED FURTHER IN
FUTURE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA AND ALONG THE BORDER...BUT IT APPEARS THE AREA
WILL HAVE WEAKER WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAINLY A
LINE OF STORMS AND RAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH A MORNING ARRIVAL. THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE WEEK. IT IS LOOKING
NEAR NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A 10 TO 15K DECK OF CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS UP TO 10K FEET AND A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/.
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
NEAR THE GROUND. MEANWHILE THE GFS SOUNDINGS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER FAVORABLE THING FOR FOG IS THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE RIVER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME...WE HAVE HAVE NOT SEEN
PRECIPITATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
SHORT. BOTH OF THESE ARE NEGATIVES TO FOG FORMATION. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN THE KICKAPOO AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES AND THEN MIGRATING INTO THE MAIN
CHANNEL BY MORNING. DUE TO THIS...WILL JUST LEAVE THE 4SM
REDUCTION CAUSED BY BR AND LA CROSSE BETWEEN 02.10Z AND 02.14Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING SURFACE FRONT INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND BUILD SURFACE RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE
SUPPRESSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR/AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS WILL
PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PLUS SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND BETTER/DEEPER FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK/VERY LITTLE FORCING/LIFT
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND CONFINED SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS TIMING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST
ZONAL FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE EVENING CONVECTION AND WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG
FORM. NO REPORTS OF LOW CLOUDS YET BUT THEY ARE FLOATING BY THE
OFFICE SKYCAM. GOOD SET UP FOR FOG TO FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
THE 30.03Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL START WITH MVFR FOR BOTH SITES
AND TAKE THEM DOWN TO IFR FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITHOUT GOOD MIXING TO
HELP BREAK IT UP. ONCE THE STRATUS IS GONE...SHOULD BE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE EVENING CONVECTION AND WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG
FORM. NO REPORTS OF LOW CLOUDS YET BUT THEY ARE FLOATING BY THE
OFFICE SKYCAM. GOOD SET UP FOR FOG TO FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
THE 30.03Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL START WITH MVFR FOR BOTH SITES
AND TAKE THEM DOWN TO IFR FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITHOUT GOOD MIXING TO
HELP BREAK IT UP. ONCE THE STRATUS IS GONE...SHOULD BE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPRELLE CREEK AND WINDY PEAK
SNOTELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT OUTSIDE THIS AREA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ECHOES
ARE ELEVATED. 1PM HUMIDITY AT CHEYENNE AT 19 PERCENT...DOUGLAS AT
24 PERCENT...LARAMIE 21 PERCENT...SO THESE ECHOES ARE GOING TO
TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO REACH THE GROUND. SO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500J/KG
CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING. NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE PANHANDLE
JUST LOST THEIR CAP OUT THAT WAY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG.
JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EXISTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
STILL HOLDING GOOD UP THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR SHOWS INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. OVERALL
THOUGH...DO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE ECMWF. GFS HAS FRONT FURTHER EAST
IN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...DI NOT CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING FRONT LIFTING ENE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWING PWATS ALMOST TO 1.3 INCHES
WITH LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. GOOD NEWS IS FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...SO DO THINK WE ARE OK FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DURING THAT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SW CONUS THIS PERIOD
WITH A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
BRINGING A MODEST COOL DOWN INTO MONDAY BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND
TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD HELP PCPN CHANCES
MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE SEEING WETTING RAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SHOWERS TO REACH
THE GROUND AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES QUITE LOW. EVENTUALLY
THOUGH...MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND FUELS ARE GREEN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE EVENING. EVENING PSR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE BUT
ALSO CONSIDERABLE CIN. HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THAT
CONTINUING WITH WESTWARD DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL PARE BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ZONE 24 AND POSSIBLY A
THIN STRIP NEAR MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO
IMPROVE A LOT. THUS ANTICIAPTE LOW GRADE CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM MST/PDT...
CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.
BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY GET AS CLOSE AS THE
MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THEM TO BE ONLY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ANTICIPATE VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA
WITHIN THOSE COUNTIES BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
118 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS TODAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 18Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO KAPF
TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND ONCE THE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAL CONTINUES ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH FL.
NAAPS SHOWS CONTINUED SAL TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON FRI
BEFORE ANOTHER SAL MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND STRENGTHENS
ESPECIALLY BY JULY 6TH. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE SAL IS ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...SO STRONG PULSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS HAZY, HOT, HUMID AIRMASS. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
AVIATION...
-TSRA WILL PREVAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KAPF BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONVECTION ON THU
AGAIN WILL FOCUS INTERIOR AND TOWARDS GULF COAST, SO ADDED VCTS
FOT THE AFTERNOON FOR KAPF BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ESE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST BY
MID MORNING THU...BUT WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF.
/GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.
ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 80 91 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 79 91 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 92 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL STILL BE A WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE EFFECTS CLEAR OUT IN
PLACES LIKE SOMERSET. THE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR SUCH STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MORE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
WFO LMK...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE WX ONES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE FFA AND ZFP/HWO UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER STORMS AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH TRAINING AND HIGH PWATS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO DAMPEN THE START OF THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
MODE OF CONVECTION IN THIS SITUATION IT IS HARD TO BITE TOO HARD
ON ONE SOLUTION SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THIS SCENARIO A BIT IN THE
GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP PRETTY WELL
WITH THE NEIGHBORS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG TO THE GRIDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE
LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO
HIGHLIGHTING THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE...OVER TO STANTON. ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS KEEPING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WEAK COMPARED
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND WILL BE EXITING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS WE MAY
SEE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIE
OFF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL TURN
UPSTREAM TO SEE WHAT CONVECTION FIRES OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND
EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS. MODELS REMAIN VARIABLE ON TRACK OF MCS
TONIGHT. GOING TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE
VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHT
WILL EVOLVE. ANY MCS WOULD LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER VERY UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF
RAIN GOING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
HWO. PW`S ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. THUS...IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING STORMS...THEN A BETTER
FLOODING THREAT MAY BE REALIZED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL
SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VERY IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER AGREE WITH A
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE
PERIOD THAT WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE FRONT AND OVERALL PATTERN
CHANGE STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
WHILE MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS JUST MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN...AND SHOULD
BEGIN IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED TO UPDATE TAF IF ANY ONE LOCATION IS
EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE LOW
CLOUD COVER /GENERALLY IFR/...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT FOG IS
STILL POPPING UP AT TAF SITES AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY...THE VIS
WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT UNDER A TRUE PATCHY
DENSE FOG ENVIRONMENT...SO TRIED TO GEAR TAF TOWARD WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VIS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
ANY PASSING STORMS...BUT GENERAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LIE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO FOG ONCE MORE...DESPITE LINGERING LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT AROUND
5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY...AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-114>118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRI THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS IS REPLACED
BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. NAM
HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA ON FRI
WHICH REMAINS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING...SO HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FRI AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD LAST
INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DID CONTINUE DRY FOR THE 4TH AS DIEING COLD FRONT IS OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THEN.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON MON. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MON AND LINGERS INTO WED
AS IT BROADENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE SFC COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVING
LIKELY POPS FOR THEN CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXTENDED PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI...FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA MOVING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS SHOW NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SE FM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS INDICATE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO WELL AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH
OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
PASSAGE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON
FCST DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS ECMWF AND GEM-NH INDICATE MLCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE THE NAM SHOWS INLAND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITHOUT REALLY A
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION...SUSPECT NAM AND GFS SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ARE OVERDONE THUS LEADING TO INFLATED
INSTABILITY VALUES. GIVEN PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO TRUST LOWER GEM-NH
AND ECMWF VALUES MORE. NEVERTHELESS WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF
SCENARIOS...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING ESEPCIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOWER CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING FRI EVENING CONVECTION
ENDS WITH EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS MODELS
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS. LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MININAL AND
CONFINED TO WI BORDER COUNTIES IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL AS MID-LVLS OFF
FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY 500-1000 J/KG BUT THAT`S ONLY BECAUSE FCST DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AGAIN THESE DEWPOINTS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN
PATTERN WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MID-LVL RDGG AND LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA AS DEPICTED BY MODELS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FCST PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POP FCST. MOST OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST LATE MON EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SO EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO END
BY THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FM THE PLAINS. SOME OF MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTED ANY PCPN. TUESDAY COULD BE CHILLY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND PASSAGE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH (WITH TEMPS 6-8C)
EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
RETURN SSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RDG BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
Tonight:
Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.
Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.
Thursday - Friday:
The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.
4th of July Weekend:
Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.
Monday - Wednesday:
The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
Combination of VFR and MVFR conditions currently prevail across the
terminals along the Kansas-Missouri state line is expect to persist
through the next 24 hours with a steady east wind. Might have issues
around sunrise with surface fog thanks to the rain overnight.
Otherwise, there is still a small chance for storms at the terminals,
but the chance is sufficiently small to not warrant including in the
TAF at this time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ030>033-
038>040-044>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A STALLED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY IS SEPARATING LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CU DEVELOPING...ALBEIT LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
TO THE CU AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE RECOGNIZING THE
BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING QPF ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES WHICH SO FAR HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. BELIEF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS NOT THERE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THE CU...THUS
LITTLE/LIMITED POPS EARLY ON TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD SUFFICE TO GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING/MCS. MODELS FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEB...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD SEE EVERYONE GET WET AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR ALL.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHED BY THE FIRST WAVE. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BACK SIDE OF DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT WRN
NEBR...AS THE MAIN SFC FRONT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN OKLA.
RETAINED 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS NW FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
SERLY WINDS TO THE REGION.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN PRESENT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT POPS
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING POPS SOME
ACROSS NRN NEBR PER THE GFS OUTPUT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE INCREASED TO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY. LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS OR TWO
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS WRN NEBR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL MONDAY ACROSS
CNTRL KS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BROAD AND BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO SYNOPTIC
SETUP...WITH MODELS FAVORING MOST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WARMER FROM 85 TO 90 THIS WEEKEND LOWER
SLIGHTLY TO 77 TO 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS IS LOW TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLACK HILLS
OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS...A BROAD AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM NWRN NEBRASKA INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS...THEN IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS
3SM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS ARE VERY DIVERGENT IN HOW CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
IMPACT THE PCPN THREAT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE LAST 12 HRS
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL...SO DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCTS MENTION ATTM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
953 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY LEADING TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS LINCOLN, NORTHERN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WE HAVE SEEN THINGS QUIET DOWN AS OF WRITING
ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY WHILE ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO GO AGAIN OVER
INYO AND VERY FAR NW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THINGS SHOULD WORK IN
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE ACTIVITY IN CLARK COUNTY
WORKS THAT WAY.
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LACK OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IN MUCH OF
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES, POPS WERE REMOVED FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT IN THIS AREA AS MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THINGS
REMAINING STABLE. FURTHER NORTH, BOTH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL WRF AND
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE INYO COUNTY SHOULD SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND GIVEN THE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS, I RAISED POPS HERE. FURTHER
EAST, I LEFT THE REST OF THE POPS AS IS AS ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO NW
AZ LATER ON TONIGHT THAT MAY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT AS IT HEADS WEST.
WHILE LAS VEGAS SHOULD STAY QUIET THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM, IT IS POSSIBLE
IF THINGS GET MORE ACTIVE IN NW AZ THAT WE MAY SEE SOME LATE-NIGHT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY FROM THE EAST. WITH
THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT+ 250 MB JET PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND HEADING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE WE HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE THEM AND BRING
THEM IN-LINE WITH SURFACE OBS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10-12 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LATE-NIGHT SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. CIGS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET
WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PDT WED JUL 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES. A
FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR AN INCH ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. A
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
LEADING TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MOST
AREAS. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR MAY BE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE WAVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES APPROACHING FRIDAY BUT THE MODELS
KEEP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT BASICALLY
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. SO I WENT WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ESMERALDA COUNTY WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK AND
PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OVER THOSE ZONES.
AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND FROM
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
126 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRIGGERING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS.
SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TEMPERATURE WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
AS OF 1030 EDT...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY PREVAILS AROUND
THE AREA WITH NO LIGHTNING. DIURNAL COLLAPSE OF CAPE HAS LED TO A
MARKED REDUCTION IN THE PROSPECT FOR LIGHTNING...AND HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.
AS OF 800 EDT...SHOWERS HAVE DECLINED IN MOST AREAS WITH THE ONLY
ACTIVITY STILL PRODUCING LIGHTNING CURRENTLY NEAR ELBERT AND ABBEVILLE
COUNTIES. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND FURTHER LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 2AM
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WHERE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR ARE FORECAST BY HRRR TO CONTINUE AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST SKY AND TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS...AND TO REPRESENT THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AS OF 515 PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE EXTENT
MAY BE LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES DECLINE DIURNALLY AS PRECIP. MOVES
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. HRRR GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG AS IT HAS
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN NOW OBSERVED...BUT THE BASIC TREND
OF ESE MOVEMENT AND DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER 10PM SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER CAMS. LATEST NEAR TERM
POPS REFLECT CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND THROUGH 6Z.
AT 215 PM...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS AT THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT. CAPES
OVER EASTERN TN ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000J SO IT IS MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A WATCH IN PLACE ABUTTING OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO OUR NE GA...WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOME OF OUR NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY <1000J OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE AROUND 60...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR THERE. I HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 23Z AND MOVING EASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NC BORDER COUNTIES AND THEN LIKELY
AS FAR EAST AS I-26. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THU IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/QPF. NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTH GA/SE TN LATE TONIGHT APPARENTLY USING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM TODAY`S MCS AS A TRIGGER. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ENHANCED QPF. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE NAM AND
INCREASE POPS LATE TONIGHT WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HENCE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ON THU. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WIND AND
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEKS...INVERTED-V BELOW H8...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC POPS EAST.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND EARLY ONSET OF
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ON SAT...4TH OF JULY...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE VIRGINAS. BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS
WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATX REGION TO NORTHERN MS/AL BY SUNRISE SAT.
12Z NAM AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE
CONVECTION 12Z SAT. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE CONVECTION
EAST...REACHING THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER WITH 30 TO 40 POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO
THE U80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AMID
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THOUGH A LACK OF DISCERNIBLE UPPER FORCING OVER THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SHOULD KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. POPS WILL THEREFORE
BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER HIGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SAME TIME...THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST IN THE TIMING OF SOME OF THESE
FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOURCES OF WEAK FORCING ABOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THEREFORE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. PROFILES ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AND THOUGH NO DAY STANDS OUT AS HAVING ESPECIALLY HIGH
QPF...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WHOLE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE PERIOD COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LACK OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT TENDENCIES LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS STAYING NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
BACK EDGE IS NOW IN THE NC FOOTHILLS. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED
ABOUT FOG CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...AND WITH THE WIND UP A BIT AND A 7
DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION...FOG IS NOT A SURE THING. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MID LEVEL CIGS UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO THE NORTH LOWERS THE CIG TO LOW
VFR...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SHOWS CONTINUE TO CROSS MOST FOOTHILLS SITES...AND
MAY PERSIST AT KGSP AND KAND FOR SOME HOURS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR
FOG AT KAVL AT DAYBREAK...BUT NOT AT FOOTHILLS SITES. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT FOOTHILL SITES AROUND RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 10
DEGREES...WITH THE LOWEST AT KAND. IF THE WIND CAN STAY UP ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY BE AVOIDED...BUT THE SITUATION WARRANT A CLOSE
WATCH. MID LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY IN
ASSOCIATIONS WITH MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WITH A FRONT TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW IN THE FOOTHILLS..AND NW AT
KAVL...INCREASING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST
VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY
DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF
MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH.
THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT
WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST
STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN
INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF
YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH
IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND
THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE
VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL
LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.
LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A
HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM
SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S.
STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH
THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP.
WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND
KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 93 78 90 78 / 40 10 40 20
FMY 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 20
GIF 94 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 40
SRQ 92 76 89 77 / 30 10 30 20
BKV 93 72 90 72 / 40 10 40 30
SPG 92 80 89 80 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST
OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET. DID
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE
OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOPING IN THE GCK AREA AT 09Z. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THESE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS TO STAY IN THE GCK AREAS
THROUGH 15Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH DDC FROM
THE WEST. BASED ON 06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS VFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH CEILING ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS RANGING
FROM 3000 TO 6000FT AGL. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT HAYS WHERE
EARLY THIS MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EAST WINDS ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 66 88 65 / 50 40 20 20
GCK 85 64 88 64 / 50 40 20 20
EHA 90 65 87 65 / 40 30 40 40
LBL 90 66 87 66 / 50 30 30 30
HYS 82 64 88 63 / 50 40 20 20
P28 88 68 89 67 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY STARTING TO
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
REMNANTS OF MCV WERE ACROSS NE AR ATTM BUT ELEVATED BOUNDARY SHOWS
UP WELL ON VIS SATELLITE THIS MORNING ACROSS S OK INTO CENTRAL AR.
CU FIELD DEVELOPING QUICKLY NOW FROM SE TX INTO SW LA MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
FOR THE 24HR TAF PACKAGE...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AS BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST ANY
ACTIVITY WORTHY OF AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES. TONIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS TO THE TXK
TERMINAL BEGINNING AT 06Z AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK/CENTRAL AR...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE TXK
TERMINAL. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE TUE MORNING
AT OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS WILL BE
FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 12Z TUE AS
WELL AS A WEST TO EAST SHEAR AXIS SETS UP NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUE. OUTFLOW COULD SEND THIS CONVECTION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT THIS WOULD
BE AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THUS HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY APPROACHING 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS TODAY WITH WEAKER GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
THESE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SOUTH
OF I-30 BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK. THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM RISING TOO
QUICKLY SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT RAPID WARMING ONCE WE START
TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FCST. SHWRS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS SRN OK/CNTRL AR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES BEYOND 18Z.
GOING FCST LOOKS LARGELY ON TRACK SO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. /09/
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 75 91 75 / 10 10 20 30
MLU 92 74 92 75 / 10 20 20 30
DEQ 89 74 83 70 / 20 50 60 60
TXK 92 75 87 73 / 20 30 50 40
ELD 92 75 88 73 / 20 30 40 40
TYR 91 75 91 74 / 10 10 20 20
GGG 93 75 91 75 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 93 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
645 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&
.UPDATE...THE POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BRING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
EXPANDING A LITTLE MORE FROM NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY TO ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.
OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.
I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.
OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.
I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z TODAY. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AS
WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA. THINGS SHOULD
STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE VALLEY. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACTIVITY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...HAZE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WERE NOTED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EMMONS AND KIDDER COUNTIES JUST WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
TRIMMED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO INCLUDE WHERE RADAR IS INDICATING
ACTIVITY...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW WELL. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE RESIDING ALONG AN
AXIS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AS
STORMS PUSH EAST...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BEHIND THEM
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT
THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE
DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY START
TO DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP WITH
SOME ENERGY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S. MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS BEST
FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH
THE FROPA...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER VERSUS THE EC/GEM/NAM. LEANED ON
THE MAJORITY HERE DISCOUNTING THE 00Z GFS. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR BETTER FORCING ALOFT. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH THE NAM SUGGESTS AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE SFC TROUGH PLACEMENT. BEST WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACED FROM BEST
MUCAPE...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MUCAPE AXIS ACROSS MY
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CH.
POP FOR NOW FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WHEN AND WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH
NEAR THE STRONGEST CAA. SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK BUT
VERY UN-JULY LIKE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S) WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY PREVENTING RIDGING FROM REBUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES UNTIL MAYBE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM WELLS COUNTY...SOUTHWEST
TO SIOUX COUNTY. PATCHY FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KMOT AND KDIK...WITH
VSBYS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KJMS MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY
AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH IN THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE
THIS MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE
LOWER PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.
GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.
GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR RESULTING IN VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED OVER
NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM
THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.
GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST AND CROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL...STRONGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM TYS TO N OF CHA ON THE STRENGTH OF A MORNING MCS
OUTFLOW AND ALSO WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE SUPORT IN THE
BROADER SCALE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE DEEP
SOUTH. STEERING FLOW WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE WRN NC
MTNS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES LIKELY IN THE SW MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
SMOKIES. HYDRO CONCERNS WILL THUS STEADILY INCREASE...BUT THIS MAY
JUST PRIMING THE PUMP FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL AWAIT THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL DATA BEFORE DECIDING
ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES SINCE THE RATES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY TAME THUS FAR.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO
OUR NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND WITH LIMITED
SHEAR AND LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT TAME. RAINFALL COULD BE SOMEWHAT ROBUST AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...BUT STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIMIT
ANY UPSLOPE ANCHORING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ONE TO TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS...BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO CLIMO DUE TO MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF FLATTENING OUT WHILE NUMEROUS LOBES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FRI
MORNING AS A COMPLEX SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST...ANOTHER LEE TROF WILL SET UP OVER
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND LINGER WELL INTO SAT. POPS STEADILY RAMP
UP THRU THE DAY/EVENING WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY VALUES
CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED A BIT SINCE YESTERDAYS FCST...HOWEVER A SOLID INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. SPC
KEEPS OUR CWFA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING SVR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO SAT...THE SFC
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS IN
ITS WAKE KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SW AND TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU SAT...SO FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. TEMPS START OUT ABOUT 2 TO
4 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON FRI AND WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ENDING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OF 240 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MODELS GENERATE NUMEROUS WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVES THRU THE PERIOD WITH WEAK UPPER WINDS PREVAILING THRU DAY
7. NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE WELL BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING
SOUTH TO SWLY LOW LVL FLOW. THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
WEAK LEE TROFFING ON SUN AND MON AS A SERIES OF SHORT LIVED MESO
LOWS ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WED AND THURS...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DEEPER LYR MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PW
VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON MON AND TUES. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...I KEPT DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR
SUN. TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON SUN AND WARM SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE CLIMO BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY LOWER STRATUS UNDER THE ALTOCUMULUS DECK HAS MANAGED
TO STAY WELL SW OF KCLT THIS MORNING...AND BREAKS GOING FORWARD
SHOULD PERMIT HEATING AND A VFR CUMULUS FIELD UNDER LINGERNIG
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SHRA/TSRA MAKING A
RUN EASTWARD FROM THE BLUE RIDGE MID AFTN SO WILL STAY ON COURSE
WITH TEMPO TSRA STARTING 19Z. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW...WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS DUE TO MIXING. GUIDANCE BRINGS MVFR CIGS TOWARD KCLT AT
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW
VFR CIG AT THE FIELD.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF IFR TO LOWER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPED UNDER THE
ALTOCUMULUS DECK THIS MORNING...BUT BREAKS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SOME
HEATING AND SCATTERING. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
TO NEAR KGSP TO KHKY THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BUT WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
BETTER CONVECTION SWEEPING EAST OFF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO PROB OR VCTS EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH TEMPO
TSRA AT KAVL AFTER 17Z. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MEAN LOW CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT MODERATE
RAINFALL AT TIMES. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SW WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY FROM
THE NW. PREFERRED GUIDANCE KEEPS VSBY VFR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOVES
MVFR CIGS IN WELL BEOFRE DAWN.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 74%
KAVL HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% MED 69%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 65%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 76%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% MED 76%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
827 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATING COMPLEX OF STORMS WANING WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASED INTENSITY/COVERAGE. SO THIS
MORNING SHIFTED LIKELY POPS TO WEST OF I-55...AND REDUCED POPS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
DESTABILIZING EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS OF 4
AM CDT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN
SHOWERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE
CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
LEADING STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY STABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PERHAPS AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000-4000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35
KTS...AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DOES RAISE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS ADJUSTED IF NEEDED.
MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MID SOUTH APPEARS TO
BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRESENT A LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT
JBR. OTHERWISE... -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH VFR / ISOLATED
MVFR AT THE OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION / LOCATION OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. HRRR AND NAM MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED STRUGGLED IN HANDLING DAYTIME CONVECTION FOLLOWING
NOCTURNAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM NIGHTTIME RAINS. THAT SAID...
TODAY/S LATE AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES MAY GET A BOOST FROM A SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST KS AT DISCUSSION TIME...1130Z. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...LATE AFTERNOON WOULD COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON
BUMP IN TSRA CHANCES...FOLLOWED BY REDUCED LATE EVENING TSRA CHANCES
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS OF 4
AM CDT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN
SHOWERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE
CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
LEADING STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY STABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PERHAPS AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000-4000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35
KTS...AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MESOSCALE TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DOES RAISE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS ADJUSTED IF NEEDED.
MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT
IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MID SOUTH APPEARS TO
BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRESENT A LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT
JBR. OTHERWISE... -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH VFR / ISOLATED
MVFR AT THE OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION / LOCATION OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. HRRR AND NAM MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED STRUGGLED IN HANDLING DAYTIME CONVECTION FOLLOWING
NOCTURNAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM NIGHTTIME RAINS. THAT SAID...
TODAY/S LATE AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES MAY GET A BOOST FROM A SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST KS AT DISCUSSION TIME...1130Z. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...LATE AFTERNOON WOULD COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON
BUMP IN TSRA CHANCES...FOLLOWED BY REDUCED LATE EVENING TSRA CHANCES
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...MUGGY DAY FOR OUR AREA
TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S WHILE THE
KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME IN AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. AS
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN
MANY SPOTS THANK TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...A FEW SPOTS IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY ARE RUNNING NEARLY 15 DEGREES LESS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. FIRST FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES THE NEXT 8 HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT KMUX RADAR HAS
JUST LIGHT RETURNS INDICATED FOR SAN BENTIO AND SE MONTEREY COUNTY
AND IN MOST CASES THAT IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY HAD BEEN SHOWING THE FOCUS SWITCHING MORE TO THE
NORTH BAY BY THE EVENING. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH THE 20Z VERSION NOW KEEPING IT ALMOST ENTIRELY
DRY. WILL JUST KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS GOING IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD END BY SUNSET AND NOT BE IN OUR CWA FOR FRIDAY AS THE
FOCUS SHIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE CONTINUED COOLING
AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS PLUS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE.
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM
60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THESE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ARE NOW FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL TERMINALS HAVE NOW
GONE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WOULD FAVOR NORTH AND EAST
BAY AFTER 0Z. CIGS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT AT OR UNDER 010
FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.
CIGS POSSIBLY UNDER 010 BY 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR THROUGH 02Z WITH A PASSING
SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS LOWERING AFTER THAT POINT POTENTIALLY
TO 003 AFTER 05Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: CW/BELL
MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RAP MODEL INDICATE THAT A GUST FRONT WILL
FORM OFF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD WESTWARD...REACHING
THE SRN PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND...BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS THE DAY
EVOLVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.
NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS
DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE
WINDS ABOVE 500MB.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SITUATION OVER OR
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...STILL ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA.
LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER
HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE
-10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT
NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE
COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG
THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE
GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE SUGGESTS AN EVENING SEA-BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS
POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
LIKELY POP NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 20Z.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... MID TERM PERIOD
BEGINS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WARM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S...HIGHEST TEMPS INLAND. COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 90S IF
CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING THAT HIGH. SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED SO POPS IN THE 40/50 RANGE SHOULD
SUFFICE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH WARM TEMPS AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE HEAT
INDICIES WILL RUN IN THE 100-105 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
4TH SO ANYONE PLANNING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID ANY HEAT-RELATED CONDITIONS.
AS WE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH AFTN POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40/50 RANGE.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (WED-THU) WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION BUT WONT BITE OFF ON THIS TOO
MUCH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS SO OVERALL POP FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE EVOLVED EAST OF KTPA/KPIE...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THESE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLAL/KSRQ...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS DIMINISH BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM
THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 93 / 20 40 30 40
FMY 75 94 76 93 / 70 60 30 40
GIF 75 95 76 94 / 60 60 40 50
SRQ 77 91 77 92 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 72 94 72 94 / 20 30 30 40
SPG 80 92 80 92 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA/GUSACK
MCKAUGHAN...LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...
.NEAR TERM...THRU FRIDAY...
GREATER COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOLLOWING THE HRRR FAIRLY WELL. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...AND LATEST HRRR...POINT TO TWO LARGE PRECIP AREAS THRU THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST IS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF NE FL FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...EXPECT THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY/
CATEGORICAL POPS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING FROM FL
PANHANDLE UP TO SE AL...ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR SE GA FORECAST AREA...AND I-10 CORRIDOR OF
NE FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. HAVE 2ND LIKELY POPS REGION HERE 20Z-00Z. THE SECOND AREA HAS NOT
BEEN AFFECTED BY FIRST PRECIP AREA FURTHER S...SO SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE
TO SUPPORT T-STORMS THRU 00Z. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING EXPECTED WITH STORMS JAX-OCF-SGF AREAS WITH
FIRST PRECIP AREA AND I-10 CORRIDOR INTO SRN GA WITH 2ND PRECIP
AREA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LOW TEMPS GENERALLY LWR 70S INLAND...MID 70S COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECM ALL POINT TO CONSIDERABLY LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING WELL
N OF FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH JUST 20 POPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT 30 POP
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LWR-MID 90S
EXPECTED.
.SHORT TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS SAT AS STACKED RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. EVENING PRECIP FRI WILL FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
LOWS COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. SAT AFTN BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY S OF I-10 IN NE FL WHERE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ENERGY LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL GOMEX. ADVERTISED AFTN
RAIN CHANCES OF NEAR 40-50% FROM GNV-PALATKA SOUTHWARD TO ONLY
20-30% ACROSS SE GA WHERE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN WITH 50-60% COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
SUN AFTERNOON AS BOTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE
OVER SE GA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...
MON-TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH MEAN LAYER
TROUGH CARVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD UNDER MOIST
SW STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGIME FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OF NEAR 50% WITH ACTIVITY PRESSING
INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE MORNING THEN
BLOSSOMING ACROSS SE GA/EASTERN NE FL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AREA WHERE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...TO THE LOWER 90S TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
WED-THU...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE 00Z ECMWF ADVERTISED A TUTT
FORMING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS WHILE THE 12Z GFS HOLDS DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL AXIS DOWN
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH
THE BAHAMAS TUTT NOT UNTIL LATE FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
BRING DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS AS THE TUTT RETROGRADES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA WED...THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THU. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE MORE TAME GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT
THIS TIME OPTED TO TREND BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS TOWARD CLIMO
VALUES WITH AROUND 40% RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S/MINS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE TEMPO FOR GUSTY TSRA CONDITIONS THRU 23Z WITH
VCTS CONTINUING THRU ABOUT 01Z. TWO PRIMARY TSRA THREATS TO TAF
SITES...FIRST CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM W OF KJAX TO E OF KGNV WHICH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE AFTERNOON. 2ND AREA IS OVER
TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AND
COULD AFFECT KSSI/KJAX/KVQQ/KCRG SITES 21Z-00Z. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF TSRA THREAT TOWARD 00Z INCREASES FOR THESE SITES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LESSER TSRA COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FRI...AND HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION IN LATEST TAFS FOR FRI
THRU 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH EVENING AND
NOCTURNAL SURGES FROM THE SW OF 15-20 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.
COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 5-6 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE AT NIGHT WITH THE SURGES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND FRI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI AND SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 93 73 94 / 60 20 20 30
SSI 73 90 76 90 / 60 10 20 20
JAX 73 93 74 94 / 60 20 20 30
SGJ 73 91 75 90 / 40 20 20 30
GNV 71 93 73 94 / 20 20 20 40
OCF 72 93 74 93 / 20 30 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/WOLF/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
412 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO NEWBERRY COUNTY.
THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA UNTIL
9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET. THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG PULSE STORMS AND BOW ECHOES ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL ORGANIZED
AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES
INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES LOCALLY.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.
SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE
OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
FOR SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085.
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
FOR GAC033-073-181-189-245.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.
SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE
OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.
SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTIY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING AROUND 22Z AT AGS AND
DNL...AND 00Z AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB. STILL DID NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH
TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING AROUND 22Z AT AGS AND
DNL...AND 00Z AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB. STILL DID NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH
TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART. THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN. AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH. MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STORMY TAF PERIOD OVERALL. THIS
AFTERNOON MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES ARE SEEING LIFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SITES...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM THE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF
THIS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID KEEP TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT VCTS/VCSH AT THIS POINT. ALSO SEEM REASONABLE THAT
FOG AND LOWER CEILING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
WITH STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.
THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
LONG TERM WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STORMY TAF PERIOD OVERALL. THIS
AFTERNOON MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES ARE SEEING LIFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SITES...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM THE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF
THIS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID KEEP TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT VCTS/VCSH AT THIS POINT. ALSO SEEM REASONABLE THAT
FOG AND LOWER CEILING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
WITH STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.
AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA FRI EVENING...WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM EVEN IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE KINEMATICS WILL BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORM WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OF ONLY 25-30KT AT 500MB. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR INSOLATION DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
WEAK N-NE FLOW...HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EVENING FOR
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY...AND IT MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
TEMPS IN THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +17C. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
MINIMAL SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA BEING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE FROPA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE MONDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...THERE WILL BE
LIKELY AMPLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY ANOTHER
COOL DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND +6C
WITH N-NE WINDS. MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO LAST TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH RISES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KSAW
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF THROUGH 18Z
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
956 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&
.UPDATE...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE SO CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO MUCH OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA THAT HAS COME IN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.
OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.
I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINAGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.
00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.
MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.
00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.
&&
$$
42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
SINCE THE INITIAL PUSH OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN US 83 AND THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN JUST EAST OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTENING
SUGGESTS THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE PRESENT. REPORTS THUS FAR
HAVE NOT INDICATED ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR FLOODING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ALL LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT EACH THUNDERSTORM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE 12 UTC WRF
ARW/WRF NMM AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS THAT
CONVECTION WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE BY 02 UTC THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACTIVITY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...HAZE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WERE NOTED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.
RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EMMONS AND KIDDER COUNTIES JUST WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
TRIMMED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO INCLUDE WHERE RADAR IS INDICATING
ACTIVITY...WHICH BOTH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW WELL. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE RESIDING ALONG AN
AXIS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AS
STORMS PUSH EAST...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BEHIND THEM
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT
THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE
DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY START
TO DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP WITH
SOME ENERGY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S. MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS BEST
FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH
THE FROPA...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER VERSUS THE EC/GEM/NAM. LEANED ON
THE MAJORITY HERE DISCOUNTING THE 00Z GFS. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR BETTER FORCING ALOFT. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH THE NAM SUGGESTS AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE SFC TROUGH PLACEMENT. BEST WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACED FROM BEST
MUCAPE...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MUCAPE AXIS ACROSS MY
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CH.
POP FOR NOW FOR THESE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WHEN AND WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH
NEAR THE STRONGEST CAA. SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK BUT
VERY UN-JULY LIKE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S) WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY PREVENTING RIDGING FROM REBUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES UNTIL MAYBE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
THE TWO MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIS/KJMS. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SMOKE BY 00Z SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
KBIS/KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.
LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 71 88 70 / 40 70 40 50
HOBART OK 91 71 93 70 / 40 50 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 75 91 73 / 20 30 50 50
GAGE OK 89 66 89 67 / 50 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 92 70 89 68 / 40 30 30 30
DURANT OK 92 73 87 72 / 30 50 70 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.
LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 71 88 70 / 40 70 40 50
HOBART OK 91 71 93 70 / 40 50 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 75 91 73 / 20 30 50 50
GAGE OK 89 66 89 67 / 50 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 92 70 89 68 / 40 30 30 30
DURANT OK 92 73 87 72 / 30 50 70 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.
WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALELY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.
GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.
SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
515 PM EDT UPDDATE...MOST SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN. MADE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS...NEGATIVE RADAR TRENDS...AND SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR TO KEEP
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO UPDATED
TEMPERATURES DUE TO CONSIDERABLE RAIN COOLING IN SOME AREAS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.
AS OF 245 PM EDT...AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WORKING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA HAS
ENCOUNTERED INCREASED INSTABILITY...WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA THIS AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE HIGHER POPS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE MESOCALE MODELS FOR CONVECTION COMING
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS IS
POSSIBLY JUST THE FIRST WAVE OF MANY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
YET MORE VORTICITY LOBES WILL CROSS THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO
THE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY
850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS
THE 850 MB LOW CENTER DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY SOLIDLY WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE
LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ANTICIPATE A
SMALLER THAN USUAL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/DEBRIS...AND WILL NEED TO SHOTGUN HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND MOIST PROFILES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
WITH MIXING AGAIN ON FRI AFTN. HEAVY RAIN WILL POSE A LOCALIZED
HYDRO THREAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT TRAINING OCCURS...WITH THE SW
MTNS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN MTNS BUT RATES WILL BE BETTER IN MORE UNSTABLE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UNSEASONABLY
HIGH PWATS (GENERALLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO) THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE NOCTURNAL
HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE (POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW) NEARS
THE AREA. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL AREAS...
MAINLY FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY
LOCALIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING
ELEVATED... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS...WHERE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP RATES. ANTECEDENT CONDITION WILL PROBABLY
ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z MONDAY WITH THE
AREA IN AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED POPS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME RELATIVE SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DIURNAL POPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS. ON
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND PWATS CLIMB BACK OVER 2 INCHES.
POPS ARE THEREFORE ABOVE CLIMO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND DO
NOT WANE MUCH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SPECTACULAR FOR
ANY DAY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...BUT PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MEAN THAT 7-DAY QPF
TOTALS BEAR WATCHING.
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE...MOIST PROFILES
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
CLIMO. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE EARLY DAY MCS OUTFLOW IS
EXTENDING EAST TOWARD THE KCLT VICINITY THIS AFTN. THE CURRENT TEMPO
TSRA FROM 19Z STILL LOOKS WELL TIMED WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS UNDER ANY HEAVY THUNDER SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LOW END
GUSTS IN BOTH THE GRADIENT FLOW WITH MIXING AND IN ANY TSTMS WITH
LIMITED DCAPE. THE NAM REMAINS MOST BULLISH ON OVERNIGHT MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING...BUT THE MOS REMAINS UNEXCITED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN
THE MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVES...SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPO TSRA WITH 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS LOOKS HIGHLY LIKELY AT
THE UPSTATE SITES ALONG THE OUTFLOW LINE THIS AFTN...WITH PRECIP
GENERALLY MORE SHOWERS FROM KAVL TO KHKY. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME AS WELL.
WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF SPOTTY LOW STRATUS AGAIN FRI MORNING GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS. WILL CONFINE THE OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO KAVL AND
KHKY FOR NOW. EXPECT UPSTATE TAF SITES TO START GUSTING AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS MIXING GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND 850 MB WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER
RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 87%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 92%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION TO ERUPT FROM TRIAD NC AREA NE TO SOUTHSIDE VA. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THE AIRMASS IS STABLE.
THE 16Z HRRR BLENDED WITH THE RAP/NAM SEEM REASONABLE THRU EARLY
EVENING. THIS SOLUTION TAKES SHOWERS EAST AND OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY
00Z...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE WRN OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ESE INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE DAWN. STARTING TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF BLF BY THAT TIME AND TRACK
THE SHOWERS EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA BY 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING...THOUGH SOME MINOR
TRACK DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE NARROWER BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWER
SWINGS IN. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT THINKING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM OR FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING SOLAR INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KY/OHIO INTO WV/NRN VA BY AFTERNOON WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN TN. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHO GETS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS AN INCH
OR LESS. SINCE WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TRACK OF ANY
HEAVIER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS...AND WILL SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING TO THE DIFFICULT FORECAST ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER ACROSS VA/NC
PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE UNSURE WHICH SURFACE LOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE
ONE. THE ONE THAT DOES WILL HAVE THE STRONGER STORMS...EITHER ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
OPT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICK AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR OVERALL
COVERAGE...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY. ON SUNDAY...THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW MAY SHIFT EAST AND MERGER WITH THE MID ATLANTIC LOW. THIS
MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
HALF WET WHILE BECOMING RAIN-FREE AND MOST CLOUDY NORTH. WITH RAIN
AND THICK CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE CONVERTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE MODELS...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
WEDGE IN PLAY...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LEWISBURG OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE AGAIN.
EXPECT SHOWERS...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR TSRA IS LIMITED TO JUST SOUTH
OF A LYH TO ROA LINE...SO ONLY HAVE VCTS THERE AND AT BCB...BUT
HAVE TEMPO AT DANVILLE WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CIG SWING TOWARD MVFR OR
WORSE...AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO A LOWER
CIGS SETUP WITH SHOWERS AROUND. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE
BEST CORRIDOR OF SHRA FROM BLF-DAN AND SOUTHWEST...THOUGH EVEN
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY.
LIMITED THUNDER AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS...SETTLING ON
CIGS/VSBYS CATEGORY CHANGES BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS SUB VFR IS HIGH FOR TONIGHT...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER...AS THINK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
IT APPEARS THAT OBSERVATIONS FROM NON-NWS AWOS SITES ARE COMING
BACK IN...BUT NO OFFICIAL WORD ON IF THE ISSUE IS FINALLY FIXED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE HANDLING ORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM WV INTO
NE TN WELL....SO EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO NUDGE EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 2 PM...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 3-4PM.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED. SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ALLOWING FOR SBCAPES TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM OVER THE MTNS TO
BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING INTO LATE TODAY...TRAINING OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL HAS
NOT BEEN HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN TO THE SAME PATTERN WITH A LONG SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN US...AS AN
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER QUITE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERS/STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP THE BULK OF ACTIVITY BIASED
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE HWO AND WAIT TO SEE IF A THREAT AREA REVEALS ITSELF WITH TIME.
AFTER A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND
LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN MILD WITH
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A REMNANT MCS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY AT THE START OF THE DAY FRI...ONE OF TWO POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE REMNANTS OF SUCH TO DRIFT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN TIME OF DAY...THREAT OF SEVERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TOP OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THU. MODEL AND WPC QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE
24-48 HOUR PERIOD ARE MOSTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE...WHICH
SHOULD BE HANDLED WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF COMBINED RAINFALL FROM THU INTO FRI MORNING RATHER THAN
NEW EVENTS FRI MORNING...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST
AND THE BETTER THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
MORNING MCS. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND BROAD
TROUGHING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS EAST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER MCS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE SATURDAY AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO
DRIFT ESE INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE RIDES OVER
THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/PA REGION. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOVED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...AS NOTED YESTERDAY...POPS CANNOT BE REDUCED BEYOND
MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT VALUES ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR
THE REMNANTS OF SUCH WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND WILL
ONLY BE RESOLVED NEAR THE EVENT AND ON THE MESOSCALE...NOT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LEVEL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS/DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF THE LONGSTANDING EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/NORTH NC AND
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ADVERTISES THIS TO
A MUCH GREATER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE TOP OF THIS WEAK CUTOFF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AS THE FAVORABLE MCS PATTERN OF THE CURRENT WEEK FADES GIVEN THE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AN END TO THE STRONG WNW-NW
FLOW ALOFT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...UPPER LOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BEYOND
MON...THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES DEPICT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN LIKELY STALLING
IN/NEAR THE REGION BY WED AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES. THUS...WE ARE LEFT IN A CONTINUAL UNSETTLED
PATTERN. ANY DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MON/TUE
TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN SUCH BY WED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MON/TUE WITH DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HENCE GREATER INSOLATION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT CONTINUE TO BE QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LEWISBURG OBSERVATIONS ARE OUT AGAIN...BUT ATTM...WILL KEEP AMD
NOT SKED OUT OF THE TAFS.
EXPECT SHOWERS...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR TSRA IS LIMITED TO JUST SOUTH
OF A LYH TO ROA LINE...SO ONLY HAVE VCTS THERE AND AT BCB...BUT
HAVE TEMPO AT DANVILLE WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CIG SWING TOWARD MVFR OR
WORSE...AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO A LOWER
CIGS SETUP WITH SHOWERS AROUND. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEPS THE
BEST CORRIDOR OF SHRA FROM BLF-DAN AND SOUTHWEST...THOUGH EVEN
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY.
LIMITED THUNDER AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS...SETTLING ON
CIGS/VSBYS CATEGORY CHANGES BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS SUB VFR IS HIGH FOR TONIGHT...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER...AS THINK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AN OUTAGE STILL EXISTS WITH SOME FAA AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS IN
THE AREA. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE HANDLING ORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM WV INTO
NE TN WELL....SO EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO NUDGE EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 2 PM...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 3-4PM.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED. SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ALLOWING FOR SBCAPES TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM OVER THE MTNS TO
BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING INTO LATE TODAY...TRAINING OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL HAS
NOT BEEN HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN TO THE SAME PATTERN WITH A LONG SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN US...AS AN
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER QUITE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERS/STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP THE BULK OF ACTIVITY BIASED
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE HWO AND WAIT TO SEE IF A THREAT AREA REVEALS ITSELF WITH TIME.
AFTER A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND
LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN MILD WITH
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A REMNANT MCS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY AT THE START OF THE DAY FRI...ONE OF TWO POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR THE REMNANTS OF SUCH TO DRIFT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN TIME OF DAY...THREAT OF SEVERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TOP OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THU. MODEL AND WPC QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE
24-48 HOUR PERIOD ARE MOSTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE...WHICH
SHOULD BE HANDLED WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE THE
RESULT OF COMBINED RAINFALL FROM THU INTO FRI MORNING RATHER THAN
NEW EVENTS FRI MORNING...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST
AND THE BETTER THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
MORNING MCS. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND BROAD
TROUGHING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS EAST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER MCS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE SATURDAY AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO
DRIFT ESE INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE RIDES OVER
THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/PA REGION. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOVED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL...AS NOTED YESTERDAY...POPS CANNOT BE REDUCED BEYOND
MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT VALUES ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OR
THE REMNANTS OF SUCH WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND WILL
ONLY BE RESOLVED NEAR THE EVENT AND ON THE MESOSCALE...NOT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LEVEL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS/DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF THE LONGSTANDING EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/NORTH NC AND
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ADVERTISES THIS TO
A MUCH GREATER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE TOP OF THIS WEAK CUTOFF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AS THE FAVORABLE MCS PATTERN OF THE CURRENT WEEK FADES GIVEN THE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AN END TO THE STRONG WNW-NW
FLOW ALOFT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...UPPER LOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BEYOND
MON...THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES DEPICT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN LIKELY STALLING
IN/NEAR THE REGION BY WED AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES. THUS...WE ARE LEFT IN A CONTINUAL UNSETTLED
PATTERN. ANY DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MON/TUE
TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN SUCH BY WED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MON/TUE WITH DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HENCE GREATER INSOLATION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT CONTINUE TO BE QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LEWISBURG OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN AGAIN...SO TAFS ARE BEING
AMENDED.
THE FIRST ROUND OF CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM AN UPSTREAM MCS DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION NOW. MOST SITES REPORTING -RA NOW AND CIGS
LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT SEVERAL SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT BCB/BLF/LWB. EXPECT -SHRA TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/REMNANTS ARRIVE INTO THE CWA WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA...EMBEDDED TSRA...AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04Z-
06Z...BUT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BCB/LWB/BLF.
OVERALL...POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
WINDS...LIGHT WSW-WNW THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF
3-7KTS...OF COURSE VARIABLE AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AN OUTAGE STILL EXISTS WITH SOME FAA AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS IN
THE AREA. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/RCS
AVIATION...MBS/NF/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SE WY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO LESS UPPER SUPPORT. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDUCTING PERIODIC
RIPPLES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
REFIRE OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING SE OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ONE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK SFC TROF THAT
WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER SE WY BUT MAY FOCUS IT OVER THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES DO GO UP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT. SHEAR
VALUES NOT ALL THAT HIGH BUT STILL DECENT. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
WARM FRIDAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY AS 700 MB WARM ABOUT 2-4C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM +16C SUNDAY MORNING TO +8C SUNDAY EVENING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING. ECMWF SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH
QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTY SUNDAY
EVENING. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
A PRETTY COOL DAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLING INTO THE AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO +6C. CONTINUED
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. CHEYENNE MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S MONDAY.
ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PRETTY STRONG JET FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD DAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STILL A WAYS OUT THOUGH AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY MAY GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN
SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OUT WEST STILL THE FAVORED AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY AROUND STORMS. A MONSOONAL PATTERN
MAY SET UP NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS A WEAKENING MCS OVER
NEBRASKA WITH REMNANT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTH INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS MCS...WITH WINDS
STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK COOL FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80 ARE EXPECTED
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS IT HAS BEEN
SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 10 TO 25 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...EVEN
THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG
AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...ANY STRONG OR SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
STATUS QUO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN TO
CONTINUE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN AN OPEN SOURCE OF MOISTURE WHILE A
STUBBORN NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE
ALSO MEANS THERE WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND HIGHER DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT