Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/01/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
255 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND RETREATS INLAND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:54 PM PDT MONDAY...MANY INLAND LOCATIONS
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED WELL OFF OF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A MARINE LAYER AT AROUND 1200
FEET DEEP. HOWEVER...THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
HAS HELD COASTAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE INLAND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE REACHING A PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND BAYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 90S TO AS HIGH AS 108 IN THE WARMEST INLAND
VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH A
PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE STATE
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS
MODEL INDICATES INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER OUR REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST MODELS AND
LOOK FOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL REGION-WIDE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND RETREATS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WILL AID
IN THE COOLING TREND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT MONDAY... STRATUS RETREATING FROM
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORN PER THE NORM WITH A STUBBORN PATCH OF IFR
CIGS LINGERING NEAR KMRY. EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WINDS. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY POORLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS... SO
LATEST TAFS ARE RELYING MORE ON THE RUC13 AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
THAN USUAL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...
MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS INTO LOW LEVELS... LEADING TO A THINNER
DECK... BUT WITH MORE INVASIVE CIGS. LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO
DOMINATE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNRISE TOMORROW. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL...BRIEF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS SUST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 04Z... WITH IFR BY 08-10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... PATCH OF LOW HANGING CLOUDS
DIRECTLY OVER KMRY TERMINAL... ELSEWHERE... VFR. WEST WINDS AOA
10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. RETURN OF MVFR/IFR AFTER 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:54 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MODERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY
AS A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
129 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FLOW OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLOW DRYING IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
BAJA...AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED DAY-
TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE SAN
DIEGO MOUNTAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER...AND DISSIPATING AFTER THEY MOVE OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE CUT OFF FROM THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE
FAST SPEEDS OF THE CELLS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR WAS 0.20 INCHES AT CAMPO. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS
THE CELLS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SPINE INTO
THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS NEAR BIG BEAR...WHILE ANVIL DEBRIS BRING POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES TO THE VALLEYS AND COAST. THE PLENTIFUL CLOUDS THAT WERE
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS LED TO COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE BETTER CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH A LOW FAR SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. THIS POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS RESULTING IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION TODAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1.3-1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
ABOVE 600 MB. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. STILL...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
STAYS ABOVE 600 MB...SO NO HUGE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE MOMENT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING
NOCTURNAL ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. IN FACT...THE NAM12 PRECIPITATION OUTPUT SHOWS SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FURTHER WEST
FOR THAT TIME-PERIOD IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES GO...SOME WARMING IS LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS CONTINUING AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO
OVERALL LESS CLOUDS AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE
WEAKENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SLOWER
DRYING DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKES PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY AS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE IMPULSE
OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
REMAINS DRY FOR NOW. THE COOLING CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. LOOK FOR THE PATCHY
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
292020Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY STRATUS REDEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING...EXTENDING ABOUT 5-10 MILES INLAND...AND
FROM ABOUT KCRQ SOUTHWARD. BASES NEAR 800 FT MSL AND TOPS 1200 FEET
MSL. STRATUS DISSIPATING AROUND 30/16Z TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS LOW. RISK OF BKN LOW CLOUDS AT KSNA IS STILL
VERY LOW...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE KSNA TAF.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. CU/TCU DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTERNOONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO NEAR 30000 FT MSL...
LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
145 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
THERES A CHANCE THAT SKYWARN WILL NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1105 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW
100S OVER INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:03 AM PDT MONDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER INLAND
AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 1500 FEET DEEP. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. AFTER
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE...HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY.
IT APPEARS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT SLOWER
AND WILL PREDOMINATELY STAY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIORMONTEREY
COUNTY AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ANY CONVECTION TO STAY WELL TO OUR EAST OF
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BENEATH A BLANKET OF A MIXED OF
LOW CLOUDS AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN
ALOFT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY STREAM OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER RADAR HAS
NOT PICKED UP ON ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE DISTRICT BUT RATHER
TO THE EAST OVER THE SIERRA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACK OFF ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TODAY. THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. DIDN/T WANT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN OF THE MODELS THAT
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS MAY
BE FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE WARMING TREND
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS IT GRADUALLY INCHES WESTWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S AT THE COAST AND BAYS AND 90S TO LOW 100S
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO RECORD TERRITORY. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT PIN POINT THE TIMING AND LOCATION. A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT MONDAY... STRATUS RETREATING FROM
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORN PER THE NORM WITH A STUBBORN PATCH OF IFR
CIGS LINGERING NEAR KMRY. EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WINDS. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY POORLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS... SO
LATEST TAFS ARE RELYING MORE ON THE RUC13 AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
THAN USUAL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...
MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS INTO LOW LEVELS... LEADING TO A THINNER
DECK... BUT WITH MORE INVASIVE CIGS. LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO
DOMINATE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNRISE TOMORROW. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL...BRIEF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS SUST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 04Z... WITH IFR BY 08-10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... PATCH OF LOW HANGING CLOUDS
DIRECTLY OVER KMRY TERMINAL... ELSEWHERE... VFR. WEST WINDS AOA
10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. RETURN OF MVFR/IFR AFTER 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:56 AM PDT MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY STEEP WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUMP MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERING UP A MIXED BAG OF VARYING
IDEAS OF HOW TO HANDLE THE INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST
MODEL BRING THE KINK IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO BE
TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN DEVELOPING NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES AND K INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 30 MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED POPS FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. POPS WERE ADDED BACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SHAPING
UP FOR TODAY. THE AREA IS GETTING OFF TO A WARMER START TODAY...BUT
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CUT INTO TEMPERATURES LATER
AS THE WAVE PUSHES NORTH. LOCAL HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKELY CARRIZO AND ACTON
THIS AFTERNOON. 950 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMEST TODAY THEN START
TO COOL LATER THIS WEEK.
STRATUS COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NAM BUFR
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HAVE LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE MARINE LAYER. LOCAL
2-KM WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO MODEL THE STRATUS EXCELLENTLY...AND
SUGGEST NO COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE STRATUS AS ALL OF THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REALLY MESSED WITH THE MARINE INVERSION.
THE BEST CHC OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.
WITH 592 DM HGTS OVERHEAD AND ONLY VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL SO IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A LITTLE WORSE
THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
COOLING TO THE COASTS AND LOWER VLYS WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID MAX TEMPS
ARE RIPE FOR SOME PRETTY BIG BUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD FORECAST.
LESS CLOUDS THAN FORECAST WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGHS
(LIKE SUNDAY) AND VICE VERSA (LIKE SATURDAY)
.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES FROM UTAH TO NEVADA. SKIES SHOULD BE MORE ON THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTNS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE THE SLIGHT CHC OF AFT AND EVE MTN TSTMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER SIMILAR EACH DAY AND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST AND A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE EAST PAC AND SETS UP DRIER SW FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KILL ANY CHC FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS. HGTS FALL AND THIS
WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...29/1800Z...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. UPPER
LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 30/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
SLO COUNTY TO LA COUNTY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER TEH LA BASIN AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH 30/03Z. TSTMS WITH TOPS 40KFT WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST APPROXIMATELY 25KT. BASE OF THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION WAS
AROUND .5FT THIS MORNING OVER KLAX AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE.
MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600Z IS 477 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 2131 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 28.8 DEGREES C.
KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY UNLIKELY
CIGS 015 BETWEEN 30/10-30/17Z.
KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...29/900 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END SOUTH OF SAN MIGUEL
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS
EXCLUDING THE AREA FROM POINT SAL NORTH 0-10 NM THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE
SOUTH OF POINT MUGU THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TWO
STORM SYSTEMS WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND WITH A FETCH
BETWEEN 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COAST WILL GENERATE SEAS
30-40 FEET SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
A WEEK FROM TODAY AND BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUMP MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERING UP A MIXED BAG OF VARYING
IDEAS OF HOW TO HANDLE THE INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST
MODEL BRING THE KINK IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO BE
TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN DEVELOPING NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES AND K INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 30 MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED POPS FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. POPS WERE ADDED BACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SHAPING
UP FOR TODAY. THE AREA IS GETTING OFF TO A WARMER START TODAY...BUT
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CUT INTO TEMPERATURES LATER
AS THE WAVE PUSHES NORTH. LOCAL HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKELY CARRIZO AND ACTON
THIS AFTERNOON. 950 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMEST TODAY THEN START
TO COOL LATER THIS WEEK.
STRATUS COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NAM BUFR
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HAVE LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE MARINE LAYER. LOCAL
2-KM WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO MODEL THE STRATUS EXCELLENTLY...AND
SUGGEST NO COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE STRATUS AS ALL OF THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REALLY MESSED WITH THE MARINE INVERSION.
THE BEST CHC OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.
WITH 592 DM HGTS OVERHEAD AND ONLY VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL SO IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A LITTLE WORSE
THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
COOLING TO THE COASTS AND LOWER VLYS WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID MAX TEMPS
ARE RIPE FOR SOME PRETTY BIG BUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD FORECAST.
LESS CLOUDS THAN FORECAST WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGHS
(LIKE SUNDAY) AND VICE VERSA (LIKE SATURDAY)
.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES FROM UTAH TO NEVADA. SKIES SHOULD BE MORE ON THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTNS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE THE SLIGHT CHC OF AFT AND EVE MTN TSTMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER SIMILAR EACH DAY AND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST AND A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE EAST PAC AND SETS UP DRIER SW FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KILL ANY CHC FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS. HGTS FALL AND THIS
WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...29/06Z.
AT 08Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS AT 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH 16Z. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH 16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...29/900 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END SOUTH OF SAN MIGUEL
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS
EXCLUDING THE AREA FROM POINT SAL NORTH 0-10 NM THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE
SOUTH OF POINT MUGU THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TWO
STORM SYSTEMS WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND WITH A FETCH
BETWEEN 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COAST WILL GENERATE SEAS
30-40 FEET SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
A WEEK FROM TODAY AND BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
922 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE EAST
WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FLOW OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLOW DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HAVE NOT RECEIVED
ANY REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM THESE
ECHOES...SO MOST OF THEM ARE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES/VIRGA DUE TO THE
CONTINUED DRY LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY LAYER IS
INDICATED WELL ON THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE LOCATED ABOVE 600 MB ALL THE WAY TO THE TROPOPAUSE.
MEANWHILE...A NEAR SURFACE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS ALSO
SHOWN...BUT ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ABLE TO FORM ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INTERFERENCE FROM ALL THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS LOW STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE
MORNING.
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH A LOW FAR SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. THIS POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS RESULTING IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION TODAY. THE AREAS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. 14Z HRRR INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH LARGER AREAS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS
DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE BEING A
BIT TOO ELEVATED IN TERMS OF ITS HEIGHT...AND A LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH
CLOUD COVER...WHICH LIMITS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM DAY-
TIME HEATING. THE ONLY HI-RES MODEL THAT SHOWS MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 00Z CANSAC-WRF.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE OVERALL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1.3-1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
ABOVE 600 MB. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. STILL...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
STAYS ABOVE 600 MB...SO NO HUGE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED.
THE MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING NOCTURNAL
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS. IN FACT...THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT SHOWS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT TIME-PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SOME WARMING IS LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS CONTINUING
AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO OVERALL LESS
CLOUDS AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THINGS COULD START DRYING OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...AS THE ECMWF
MOVES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST OF
THE MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY...AND IT ISNT UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY THAT THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT KICK IN THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
NEXT MONDAY. THE COOLING CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. LOOK FOR THE PATCHY
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
291520Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY PATCHY STRATUS EXTENDING ABOUT 5-10
MILES INLAND...AND FROM ABOUT KCRQ SOUTHWARD...WITH BASES NEAR 800
FT MSL AND TOPS 1200 FEET MSL. STRATUS DISSIPATING AROUND 1630Z.
PATCHY STRATUS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WITH
SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE
IS LOW. RISK OF BKN LOW CLOUDS AT KSNA IS STILL VERY LOW...SO WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE KSNA TAF.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. CU/TCU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO
NEAR 30000 FT MSL...LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND LOCAL VIS
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
825 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY FOR TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.
THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT
OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT. THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.
DETAILS...
WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.
THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI 79 92 79 91 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 10 40 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 78 92 / 30 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 40
MIAMI 77 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF
FL WITH ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING DEEP W/SW FLOW
OVER CENTRAL FL. CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF IS PUSHING ONSHORE
THE BIG BEND/NATURE COAST REGION OF WEST FL AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF SHOWING HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFT. MOS POPS ALSO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS (60-70 PERCENT) IN FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTH
INTO THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE LOW 90S AND EVEN MID
90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...SOUTH OF THE CAPE...AS SEA
BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM FROM STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION ALREADY PUSHING INTO LAKE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.
KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1010 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
943 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
HOURLY GRIDS FOR WIND AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER WITH EARLIER
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/IL...WHILE A COMBINED
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD SURGED INLAND ACROSS NE IL/NW
IND AND EAST CENTRAL IL SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AN AREA
OF FOG HAD INITIALLY DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WEB CAMERAS INDICATE
THAT FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LIFTING INTO A LOW CEILING AND
SCATTERING AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR ARRIVES. 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO. FARTHER WEST...CIRRUS WAS SPILLING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HUGGING THE SHORE
LINE AND WILL SOON MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HOW LOW CIGS/VIS MAY DROP AT GYY IS LOW...BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. LOWER
CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY EAST OF ORD/MDW BUT AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INLAND. OTHERWISE
MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY MOVE
SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRENDS AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY LOWER CIGS
BECOME...SO BACKED OFF TO JUST SCATTERED MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND MAY TURN BACK MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY TURN BACK NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE PUSHING WIND SPEEDS BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
943 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
HOURLY GRIDS FOR WIND AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER WITH EARLIER
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/IL...WHILE A COMBINED
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD SURGED INLAND ACROSS NE IL/NW
IND AND EAST CENTRAL IL SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AN AREA
OF FOG HAD INITIALLY DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WEB CAMERAS INDICATE
THAT FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LIFTING INTO A LOW CEILING AND
SCATTERING AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR ARRIVES. 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO. FARTHER WEST...CIRRUS WAS SPILLING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT EARLY THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HUGGING THE SHORE
LINE AND WILL SOON MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HOW LOW CIGS/VIS MAY DROP AT GYY IS LOW...BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. LOWER
CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY EAST OF ORD/MDW BUT AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INLAND. OTHERWISE
MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY MOVE
SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRENDS AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY LOWER CIGS
BECOME...SO BACKED OFF TO JUST SCATTERED MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND MAY TURN BACK MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY TURN BACK NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE PUSHING WIND SPEEDS BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
648 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT EARLY THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HUGGING THE SHORE
LINE AND WILL SOON MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HOW LOW CIGS/VIS MAY DROP AT GYY IS LOW...BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. LOWER
CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY EAST OF ORD/MDW BUT AS SUNSET
APPROACHES...ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INLAND. OTHERWISE
MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY MOVE
SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRENDS AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY LOWER CIGS
BECOME...SO BACKED OFF TO JUST SCATTERED MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND MAY TURN BACK MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY TURN BACK NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE PUSHING WIND SPEEDS BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FORECAST DISCUSSION SEEMING A BIT REPETITIVE AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
REMAINS IN A LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FCST PD. A
STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION KEEP POPS FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SOME TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN. FORECAST KEEPS SOME POPS IN TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND INCREASING
TOWARDS MORNING WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST IN NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS, WITH A BREAK TUES NIGHT POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE ON WED AND SO ON THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. WED/WED
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SOME OF THE MORE FOCUSED POPS AS A BOUNDARY IS
APPARENT IN SFC WIND FIELDS IN THE MODELS. ANY BOUNDARY LIKELY TO
SET UP IN THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS/DYNAMICS FOR ANY SHORT
WAVE ASSISTED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. THE SERIES OF WAVES STARTS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE DISSONANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED AS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND STORMY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
EARLY MORNING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO THIN/DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST OBS GENERALLY SHOWING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER
AT AROUND 3500FT. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES...WILL CARRY LOW VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET. SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE 12Z
MODELS...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER GFS. AS SUCH...KEPT FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW VRF CEILINGS AND VCTS COMING INTO THE
PICTURE BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BACK TO WESTERLY
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
TODAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.
CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINFALL GOING NEAR
KSBN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DRIFTING EAST OF TERMINAL
SHORTLY. OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC EVENT AT TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD
COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD FOG BECOMES BUT EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPS IN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY THIS EVENING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.
CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE MOVG EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS CAUSING AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH LOW CIGS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY AT FWA MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST BUT LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE SOME STRATUS/FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
448 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY THIS EVENING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.
CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO TO ADD
MENTION OF VFR SHOWERS AT KSBN AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ALL SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY KFWA BUT NOT WORTHY OF TAF MENTION
WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
STORY REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...THE STORY WILL BE THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST
THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. IN GENERAL A
FEW LIFTING METHODS EXIST...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE IN
THEIR OWN RIGHT...INCLUDING WAA MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SHORT WAVE VORT MAX...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE STRONGEST...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORM IN WESTERN HALF OF IOWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA TO LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THIS THE BEST SO FAR...WITH OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING AGREEING. WITH PRIMARILY AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AND SHOULD BE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. REGARDING SMOKE...HIGHS DID HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING GUIDANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL WERE
NOT TOO FAR OFF. DID NOT DO MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP INTO WED...AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A GRADUAL CHANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVOLVING FROM WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH TO A BROADER MEAN
TROUGH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT ONSET THE FOCUS WILL
BE ON LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN GREAT
LAKES JET AND FORCING WITH CURRENT MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN SHORT WAVE.
WEAK/MODERATE AND FAIRLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WILL PASS THROUGH IA WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL LIMITS HOWEVER SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME WEAK PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO MO/IL
BY 06Z. CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN SOUTH AND WEST INTO THU AND THU
NIGHT WITH JUST TOKEN FORCING IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BUT
CONTINUED AIRMASS STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RELATIVELY
INACTIVE.
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GULF OF AK
LOW PASSING THROUGH WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
INTO FAIRLY BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF WARMING AND INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
TIMING QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL BE REALIZED HOWEVER WITH
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FASTER THAN RESPECTIVE GFS 12Z SOLUTION. ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THUS WILL HIT
POPS THE HARDEST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH HIGH PLAINS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY REACHING IA INTO THE NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO KEEP IT GOING IN SOME FORM INTO MON. GFS
MLCAPES SUGGEST VALUES MAY REACH 2-3K DURING PEAK HEATING. DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION SO SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE THERE...BUT SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FROPA.
OUTSIDE OF WARMING SURGE JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS
PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL TO VARIED DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN
SEEMS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SPLIT ON TRACK OF SYSTEM THROUGH 00Z WITH
MESO MODELS/EURO BUILDING SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO
GFS/NAM. HAVE INCREASED AND EXTENDED -SHRA CHANCES THROUGH 00Z FOR
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SITES AS WELL AS INCLUDED VCSH FOR KFOD AFT 17Z.
AFT 18Z POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED THUNDER INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH WITH
VCTS AT KOTM. CIGS MAINLY VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN SITES AFT
18Z. CURRENT -SHRA OVER WESTERN IOWA HAVING DIFFICULT TIME
SATURATING AIRMASS...BUT -SHRA ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT.
WINDS NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT BUT SOME VSBY ISSUES WITH -SHRA AND
ALOFT WITH SMOKE. EARLIER...SMOKE LAYER ESTIMATED BETWEEN 5 AND
17KFT WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY...DOWN TO LESS THAN SEVERAL
MILES IN THICKER SMOKE AT THOSE LEVELS. -SHRA SHOULD HELP REMOVE
SMOKE OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.
ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
..08..
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NORTH BY 00Z
WITH FRONT HEADING TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BEST FORCING
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH HRRR AND
VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT BEST SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM NEAR MASON
CITY SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. CURRENT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OVER THE EAST THOUGH WITH
LACK OF SFC TRIGGER...LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...IF AT ALL...UNDER
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER OR OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CAN FIRE CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
THIS EVENING...WILL BE NARROWING POPS/WX OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE DIURNAL SUPPORT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...AM
EXPECTING A LESSENING OF COVERAGE AFT 02Z WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN FIRES
IMPACTING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THICKER LAYER OF SMOKE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER IOWA SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A BRILLIANT SUNSET FOR AREAS WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES WAS THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OTHER CONCERN WAS TEMPS AND HOW THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SMOKE PLUME FROM CANADA.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO CUT ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND SHOULD HOLD OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. PLUS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT IN DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK...MAYBE EVEN SHOVED FURTHER WEST BY THE SURFACE
HIGH...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THE SMOKE FROM CANADA
WILL AFFECT THE MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SINCE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THE
FIRES WILL CEASE. IF SMOKE IS STILL AROUND ON TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY
NEED TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS
MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE LOW POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION. THOUGH
UNSTABLE...LITTLE FORCING OR INITIATION MECHANISM CURRENTLY TO
FORCE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AND -TSRA BETWEEN 20-23Z...BUT MAIN FORCING OF SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY OVER MN WILL BE THE BETTER TRIGGER TODAY...WITH SCT
THUNDER MOVING SOUTH TOWARD IA/MN BORDER BETWEEN 22-00Z. SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER IOWA. THOUGH
SFC OBSTRUCTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED...LAYER OF SMOKE MAY CAUSE
SOME RESTRICTION ALOFT OR ON APPROACH GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND
DEPTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10-12KT GUSTS 15 KTS THROUGH 00Z. AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES...CONVECTION WILL END AND CONDITIONS REMAIN
QUIET THROUGH END OF PERIOD. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
840 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-
JACKSON-SCOTT.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1203 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE
REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000
TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z.
SFC CONVERGENCE IS RATHER MEAGER ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES JUST
REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE SVR WORDING IN SOUTHEAST/EAST ZONES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THROUGH 00Z. LCL HEIGHTS
EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS
INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY STORMS FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF FUNNEL. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01-02Z. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. 4KM WRF ALSO SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MN MAY EXPAND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS
WELL. WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE CEDAR RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
MORNING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. IOWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND LESSENING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN
SO...THINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
SUCH OPPORTUNITY COME LATE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTLE IMPULSE PUSHES AN
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA DOWN ACROSS IOWA.
DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BROAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES...FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED DETAILS IN TIMING OF POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
EVEN AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILT
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY...BUT EVEN SO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED THOUGH NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...THE
STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE WEEK WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND A MODEST
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE GREATEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES SO POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP AND WE CAN REFINE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN THEN
POPS FOR PART OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS
WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT IN WAKE OF THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH
PASSAGE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW...PROVIDING
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SUNNY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER RIGHT AROUND
THE FOURTH OF JULY. OBVIOUSLY ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO GOOD WEATHER AROUND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TWO ISSUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RADIATION FOG INTO THIS
MORNING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION MON AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH WEAK SFC FLOW AND GRADIENT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL WITH OCCASIONAL SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS...BUT
WITH MOIST SOIL FROM RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY HIGH RH EXPECT AT
LEAST MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP...LIKELY IFR OR LESS IN MORE FAVORED
SPOTS. ISOLATED TO SCT PEAK HEATING CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED
MON AFTERNOON. THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE...BUT ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
WORDING IN MORE FAVORED ERN SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS
CLOSER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON; AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
SIMPLY GROW UPSCALE OR WHETHER RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
SEVERE. IF CONVECTION IS DISCRETE, THEN VERY LARGE HAIL (>2.75")
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF THE WIND
AND HIGH CAPE VALUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY, ALL THE COOL OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY
HAMPER STORM SEVERITY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
POSSIBLE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ON SATURDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAY EVENINGS CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM AT HYS TERMINAL AS THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION IS TOO LOW AND UNCERTAIN IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 98 68 92 / 10 20 20 40
GCK 71 98 69 90 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 71 99 70 91 / 0 20 20 40
LBL 72 100 71 92 / 0 20 20 40
HYS 73 97 68 90 / 10 10 20 30
P28 75 100 71 94 / 0 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1219 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED AS EVEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG
ONES ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLUEGRASS WHICH WILL LIKELY
AFFECT OUR CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR
STRAY STORMS ARE FOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...PER RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAWN. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS FOR THIS AS WELL AS SENT OUT FRESHENED ZONES AND A CALMER
HWO. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DESCENDING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH STORMS JUST TRAILING AND SOME
DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST. THE WORST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
JUST TOUCHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH EVERY SCAN OF THE RADAR PROVIDING
CRITICAL DATA FOR THE EVOLVING CELLS. TO THE SOUTH...EARLIER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE SEEMED TO MAKE FOR QUIETER
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AS THE OUTFLOW IS NOW THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE
WATCH...DUE TO EXPIRE IN AN HOUR...FROM THE SOUTH WHILE KEEPING IT
IN THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHERN STORMS AND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALSO...INCORPORATED THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR POPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...DID TWEAK THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...COLD POOLS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESH SETS OF
ZONES AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN
THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY
TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN
HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE
HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION
MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON
AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE
ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND
ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.
SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN
POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED
COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY
LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LAST TWO PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS
WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A LINE OF SOUTHWARD SINKING STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITED FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE FADING OUT. AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL...
MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WILL LIKELY BEGIN FOG UP AGAIN TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR THIS...HAVE
GONE WITH SOME IFR AND BELOW PREVAILING GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE FOG WILL CLEAR AFTER DAWN WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROPPING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAVE ADDED A VCTS FOR THIS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
815 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DESCENDING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH STORMS JUST TRAILING AND SOME
DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST. THE WORST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
JUST TOUCHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH EVERY SCAN OF THE RADAR PROVIDING
CRITICAL DATA FOR THE EVOLVING CELLS. TO THE SOUTH...EARLIER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE SEEMED TO MAKE FOR QUIETER
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AS THE OUTFLOW IS NOW THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE
WATCH...DUE TO EXPIRE IN AN HOUR...FROM THE SOUTH WHILE KEEPING IT
IN THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHERN STORMS AND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALSO...INCORPORATED THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR POPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...DID TWEAK THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...COLD POOLS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESH SETS OF
ZONES AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN
THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY
TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN
HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE
HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION
MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON
AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE
ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND
ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.
SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN
POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED
COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY
LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LAST TWO PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS
WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A LINE OF SOUTHWARD SINKING STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITED FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE FADING OUT. AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL...
MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WILL LIKELY BEGIN FOG UP AGAIN TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR THIS...HAVE
GONE WITH SOME IFR AND BELOW PREVAILING GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE FOG WILL CLEAR AFTER DAWN WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROPPING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAVE ADDED A VCTS FOR THIS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP ON SCHEDULE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. MAINLY FRESEHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ITS ASSOCIATED FORCING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...IS ON ITS WAY OUT. WE NOW AWAIT THE NEXT WAVE TO
COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH COMBINED WITH HEATING AND SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST WAS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. BROUGHT THE GRIDS IN LINE
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HOURLY OBS. SOUTHERN END OF BAND OF
SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC...HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY I-64 CORRIDOR LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR THE START OF THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF OUR OVERHEAD TROUGH...STILL
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE GENERALLLY DISSIPATING. ANY
DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING.
PATCHY FOG WILL SET IN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER CLEARING OUT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC...SO AM ONLY CARRYING MVFR FOR NOW. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY AROUND 12Z...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1112 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ITS ASSOCIATED FORCING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...IS ON ITS WAY OUT. WE NOW AWAIT THE NEXT WAVE TO
COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH COMBINED WITH HEATING AND SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST WAS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. BROUGHT THE GRIDS IN LINE
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HOURLY OBS. SOUTHERN END OF BAND OF
SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC...HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY I-64 CORRIDOR LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR THE START OF THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF OUR OVERHEAD TROUGH...STILL
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING
TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST WAS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HOURLY OBS. SOUTHERN END OF BAND OF
SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC...HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY I-64 CORRIDOR LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR THE START OF THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF OUR OVERHEAD TROUGH...STILL
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING
TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
DAWN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING
TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING CONCERNING THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINAL
LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING. OF ONE INTERESTING THING TO
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z WRF OUTPUT AND THE HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL LA OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STARTING TO SEE SOME VERY SMALL ECHOES
ON RADAR IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY ATTM BUT IF ANY DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...IT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NE TX TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DESCENT CU
FIELD DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AS THE RETURNING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY BUT DID NOT MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE. WILL BE WATCHING UP NORTH ACROSS AR/OK MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW COULD HELP
TO GENERATE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT ATTM BUT WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FROM THE SSW
MAINLY NEAR OR LESS THAN 10KTS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND AREA WIDE. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES
THIS EVENING. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 94 74 91 / 0 20 30 40
MLU 70 92 74 90 / 0 20 20 50
DEQ 66 90 70 91 / 0 20 30 30
TXK 69 92 73 92 / 0 20 30 40
ELD 68 92 74 91 / 0 20 30 40
TYR 71 92 73 90 / 0 20 20 30
GGG 72 92 73 91 / 0 20 20 30
LFK 75 93 75 90 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM...THE HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED AGAIN AND FOG WAS
ADDED FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NAM12 SOUNDING SHOWED DEEP LLVL MOISTURE SETTING UP IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS W/A LIGHT SSE FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THIS,
STAYED W/THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS(40-50%) FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVED THE PRECIP SHIELD FURTHER E TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME ECHOES MOVING IN TO WESTERN
AREAS. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE RAP DID QUITE WELL W/THE
HANDLING OF THE SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAYBE BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG PRECIP PRODUCER, THOUGH, WITH TOTALS GENERALLY BEING UNDER A
QUARTER INCH. LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT PERHAPS
FAR WESTERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL LIFT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSE THE CROWN OF
MAINE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE GFS IS 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE. MOTHER NATURE MAY SUPPLY ITS OWN FIREWORKS FOR THE
HOLIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE MAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS WITH VALUES IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT KBGR AND KBHB, AND POSSIBLY NORTH TO KHUL, AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR FOR MOST AREAS ONCE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIFT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SHOWERS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR
PQI/ ON INDEPENDENCE DAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ADDED FOG THROUGH WED MORNING. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1208 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV
LATER AS THE LATEST UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.
HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR
TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED
TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST
UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.
HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK HAS
SHIFTED E AND IS CLOSE TO KSAW...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER SOME TONIGHT. THIS MAY HALT THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
CLEARING OR EVEN CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE
W...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KSAW TOWARD DAYBREAK. IF CLOUDS DO LINGER
LONGER...THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
DECENT AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS STRONGER TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT WORK OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
TO START THE LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATES MOISTURE
LINGERS 950-900MB WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NE WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH AND NEARING
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL HIT UP
CLOUDS MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMOVED CHANCES OF FOG. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THERMAL TROUGH IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPPER LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN PWATS BLO 0.5 INCH AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE COOLER SPOTS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WITH DEEPER MIXING...DWPNTS IN AFTN
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 30S OR 40S. NAM DWPNTS WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE
HIGH BIAS SHOW MID 30S...SO THAT INDICATES HOW DRY THE AIRMASS LOOKS
TO BE. MAY BE MORE CU THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...BUT
TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY POP-UP SHRA.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
UPPER LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT FRONT SLIDING TOWARD
UPR LAKES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES COULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND
FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO APPEARS LIKE ONLY LOW-CHANCES AT THIS
POINT.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THINKING NOW IS THAT JULY 4TH WILL BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. BECOMING WARMER AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +14C
BY END OF SATURDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESUTING INSTABILITY AROUND GIVEN OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +15C. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE MODIFICATION RESTRICTED TO
EASTERN CWA OFF LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS ON
SUNDAY COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEST HALF.
CONSENSUS POPS OF HIGHER CHANCES SEEMED GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPR MICHIGAN. SFC-H85 THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANZED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA NEXT MONDAY...WITH TIMING AND
COVERAGE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
EXPECT SOME SHRA/TS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW THIS AFTN WITH OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL. ALTHOUGH A TS COULD HIT CMX AS WELL...THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A LINGERINGTS WILL ARRIVE TNGT WITH THE CLOSER
APRCH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR. AFTER THIS FNT
PASSES THE SITES...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NNW TO BRING IN SOME LO
CLDS/FOG ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MRNG...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND IWD...BUT SAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU 30/18Z
WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW PUSHING IN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL SLIDE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST
AND A DRIER SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM ONTARIO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT GENERALLY IN THE 60S BY THE CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER/LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO MID 40S FOR THE INLAND
LOCATION. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 50S. ONE
CAVEAT IS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING HUDSON BAY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND WILL PUSH CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN U.P. FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P. BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SCARCE WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE FOURTH OF JULY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THAT SYSTEM FOR NOW AS IT IS AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
EXPECT SOME SHRA/TS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW THIS AFTN WITH OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL. ALTHOUGH A TS COULD HIT CMX AS WELL...THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A LINGERINGTS WILL ARRIVE TNGT WITH THE CLOSER
APRCH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR. AFTER THIS FNT
PASSES THE SITES...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NNW TO BRING IN SOME LO
CLDS/FOG ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MRNG...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND IWD...BUT SAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU 30/18Z
WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Most of the period will be fairly benign before an anticipated
upstream MCS approaches central MO well after midnight.
A weak cold front edging southward through central IL has a few
isolated cells along it that are mainly diurnally driven. A few of
these could graze a few of the central IL counties prior to sunset.
Otherwise, expect a smoke-filled cloud cover through the evening.
Model consensus continues to point towards a nocturnal MCS forming
over eastern NE/western IA late this evening as a southwesterly
low-level jet ramps up over the Central Plains. The cross flow over
a h8 thermal gradient should provide strong moist ascent and provide
the necessary fuel for the developing MCS. Under a northwesterly
steering flow this activity is expected to track southeast and enter
the central MO counties after midnight...probably closer to 09z.
MJ
&&
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A couple rounds of active storms with attendant MCS will be the
primary concern Wednesday into Thursday. With PWs ramping up to
well over 2"(lying between two standard deviations above normal
and the 99th percentile) plus a veering low level jet a northwest-
southeast corridor of central MO counties lies within a favored
region for repeated rounds of convection. The first one will be
ongoing Wednesday morning. Some debate as to how the MCS will
evolve Wednesday as model qpf consensus points to the MCS turning
more east towards STL. However, with the likelihood of a cold pool
forming and becoming dominant under a northwesterly flow the
heaviest rains should tend to push more south than east.
As the above MCS weakens during the day under a weakening h8 jet
there should be a lull in the action until later Wednesday evening
when we rinse, wash and repeat as the nocturnal low-level jet
reforms. Another MCS is expected to form over central MO, just where
is likely dependent on where any outflow boundaries end up. Central
MO is the most likely region. So, based on the above have gone with
a Flash Flood Watch for parts of central MO.
From Thursday through Sunday shortwave troughs dropping down the
front side of an upper ridge over the Rockies will remain a nuisance
generating off and on threats of convection. Temperatures are
expected to be below normal early in the period before gradually
warming late in the holiday weekend.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION... (00z TAF set through 00z Thursday)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Main concern remains with evolution of convective complex to the
northwest. Latest SREF guidance trending a bit further north than
the NAM, with the HRRR a bit further west, but general indications
are that the development should be near the Iowa/Nebraska border
before tracking southeast. KCOU continues to be favored for greater
impacts by about 08z or so, with this area most likely for
widespread thunderstorms. A few showers/storms may be approaching
the metro TAF sites by about 08-09z but currently think the more
significant shower activity should be closer to 10-11z.
Effective placement of the frontal boundary near the I-70 corridor
will likely be influenced by the track of the MCS remnants Wednesday
morning, which will weaken as the low level jet focuses further
east. Afternoon convection will be more diurnally driven, and have
mentioned VCTS at all sites.
Specifics for KSTL:
Most significant impacts with convective complex expected to be a bit
further west of KSTL, but have MVFR visibilities at times by about
10z or so with the heavier showers arriving. Convection expected to
be more scattered by afternoon, before increasing late with the
development of another convective complex. Models indicating more
widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities developing after 00z Thursday.
Geelhart
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Reynolds MO-St.
Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday
morning FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage
MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IS FROM THE SMOKE
DEBRIS THAT IS BEING CARRIED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ALASKA REGION.
GRIDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING UPDATED FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FORECAST FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEYOND THE PERIOD. FOR NOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE WILL BE THE IMPACTS. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SMOKE ALONG AND EAST OF ONL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
829 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IS FROM THE SMOKE
DEBRIS THAT IS BEING CARRIED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ALASKA REGION.
GRIDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING UPDATED FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND A SECOND
MAY BE POSITIONED ACROSS MT THIS MORNING WHICH AFFECT THE WEST
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND A SECOND
MAY BE POSITIONED ACROSS MT THIS MORNING WHICH AFFECT THE WEST
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NO WEATHER-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN. STORMS WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM DUE TO A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS NUDGED INTO THE AREA. LATER THIS
AFTN...STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND MOST STORM SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 06Z. LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 63 98 65 100 / 40 5 10 10
DULCE........................... 50 90 53 92 / 40 20 30 30
CUBA............................ 53 88 57 90 / 40 20 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 56 94 56 95 / 30 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 55 90 55 91 / 30 30 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 92 58 94 / 30 10 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 57 90 57 91 / 30 20 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 59 93 60 93 / 40 20 20 50
CHAMA........................... 49 83 52 84 / 40 30 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 89 61 90 / 40 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 55 86 58 87 / 40 30 30 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 85 52 85 / 40 30 30 40
RED RIVER....................... 46 75 49 75 / 40 30 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 80 52 78 / 30 30 40 70
TAOS............................ 49 87 54 87 / 40 20 20 20
MORA............................ 51 84 56 83 / 40 30 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 55 94 59 95 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 88 61 89 / 40 20 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 91 61 92 / 40 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 94 66 95 / 50 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 94 68 96 / 50 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 96 66 98 / 50 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 97 67 98 / 40 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 97 66 98 / 50 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 96 67 97 / 40 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 96 65 97 / 40 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 90 61 91 / 60 10 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 58 92 61 94 / 60 10 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 90 56 92 / 60 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 88 58 89 / 60 20 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 88 59 89 / 60 10 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 90 61 91 / 60 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 56 82 59 84 / 60 10 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 55 90 59 86 / 10 5 10 60
RATON........................... 54 91 56 88 / 20 5 10 60
SPRINGER........................ 54 93 58 91 / 20 5 10 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 86 56 86 / 50 10 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 61 95 65 93 / 10 0 10 30
ROY............................. 57 92 61 91 / 20 0 0 40
CONCHAS......................... 63 98 67 98 / 50 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 95 64 96 / 50 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 98 68 98 / 50 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 63 93 64 94 / 50 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 64 94 66 95 / 50 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 95 65 96 / 60 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 96 66 97 / 50 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 60 92 60 94 / 60 0 0 5
ELK............................. 58 85 59 88 / 40 0 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ510>516-527>529.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DISTINCT SPIN WITH THIS...INDICATIVE OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
GOING DEEP INTO THE NIGHT DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO
PASS OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY
RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT
LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE
RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S.
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z
RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT
MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.
MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.
AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.
AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
157 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY
RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT
LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE
RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S.
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-SPECIFIED
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES IN MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT`S A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PROGGED TO IMPACT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CLARITY NOTED IN 12Z NWP
SUITE THAN PRIOR CYCLES REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. I`VE OPTED TO USE A HEAVY DOSE OF
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD.
DAILY DETAILS FOLLOW...
WEDNESDAY: LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION CARVES OUT MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ALLOWS FOR A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
HIGH PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL
TO SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER 12Z GFS, WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY LI`S OF -4 AND CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG, WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 35-40 KTS. SO THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL FOR
VT AND CLOSER TO LIKELY FOR NORTHER NY. SHOWN FORECAST QPF
WEDNESDAY UP TO A HALF INCH, BUT LOCALLY MORE IN CONVECTION.
DEPENDING ON SPEED THAT FRONT EXITS - WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE
SLOWER - SHOULD HAVE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE M50S/NEAR 60.
THURSDAY: GFS/EC REALLY ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO HOW THURSDAY
PLAYS OUT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WITH LARGER QPF
ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE EC SHOWS MORE SHEARED-OUT SHORTWAVE
FEATURES AND LOWER QPF. KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN
UNSETTLED HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z
RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT
MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT
BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD ARE IN JEOPARDY.
AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD
FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36
INCHES SET IN 2013.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
5 PM 06/28.
AT 8.44 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.48 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN
1922.
AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORE
MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER ON THE
BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF
WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE TO EXIST AFTER
SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES LATE
TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND
FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC. AN
ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A
MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING
RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL
COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON
IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO.
MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH
MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT
OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL
5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
156 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORE MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER
ON THE BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO
EAST OF WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A
THUNDERSTORM. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE
TO EXIST AFTER SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE
MIDDLE 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR
FLIPS TO JULY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY
LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP
BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE
1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR
70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT
MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING
THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND
POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE
CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG
THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS
BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE
THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO.
MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH
MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO
20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL
CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A
GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL
DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE
EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT
TIMES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
923 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY HAS SHIFTED 40 MILES OFF THE
COAST. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE
DEWPOINT FIELD. THE BOUNDARY IS NEAR A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
WESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY TO KINGSTREE. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING SHUNTED TO THE COAST WITH
THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST REMAINING HIGHER. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THE MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER 3 PM AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AREA OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE HRRR IS ONLY SHOWING WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND HORRY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL
KEEP AN ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN THESE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MINS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR
FLIPS TO JULY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY
LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP
BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE
1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR
70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT
MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING
THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND
POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE
CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG
THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS
BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE
THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE FOG AT LBT SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN AN HOUR OR TWO.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...NORTHEAST AT
TIMES...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...WEST TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO
20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL
CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A
GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL
DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE
EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT
TIMES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA ACCOMPANIED BY A 70KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING/DIVING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM LAST FEW HOURS AS WANED
WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING TOPS WARMING FROM SASKATOON INTO
REGINA. THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM IS NOW VOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS OVERDONE. HAVE REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSORMS WEST OVERNIGHT. IF
SOMETHING REMOTELY DOES DEVELOP...FEEL THE COVERAGE AFFECTED WOULD
NOT JUSTIFY THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. THE OTHER UPDATE WAS TO ADD HAZE IN THE GRIDS CENTRAL
ZONES...WITH SHALLOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. JAMESTOWN
AIRPORT VISIBILITY HAS FALLEN TO 6SM AND BISMARCK HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 7SM AND 8SM. WITH STREAM OF SMOKE CONTINUING
TO TRAVEL FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECT
HAZE AND SKY OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOOKING SLIMMER. THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION IN
SASKATCHEWAN BUT WOULD TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO REACH NORTH DAKOTA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA RIDING ALONG A 70KT
JETSTREAK THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH OF GLASGOW. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A BAND OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAZY SKIES
TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING THROUGH
MONDAY.
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
COOLER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING MANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
SWING THROUGH. ONCE SUCH WAVE IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS USHER IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LEE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. BASICALLY WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO THE
PATTERN WE HAD EARLY LAST WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO TRAVEL INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. DEPTH OF HAZE PARTICULATES WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
REST OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 6SM. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
904 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS TRYING TO REFLECT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN SHOWERS BEHIND IT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT HAPPENS TO CONVECTION HEADED INTO SW OHIO...WENT WITH A
SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE TRI-STATE WITH THIS...BUT IN A MUCH WEAKENED FORM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE
SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV
BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG
WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR
TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV.
A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.
AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR
THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF
AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES.
HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH
OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE JUICY...WITH MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.9
INCHES. H500 CHARTS SHOW A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES PASSING BY.
EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST SUPPRESSING PCPN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
GENERALLY...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.
MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE
SOME TSRA IN TAFS IN THOSE AREAS. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
HAPPENS OVERNIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG. THE SURFACE WILL BE WET DUE
TO RECENT RAIN...BUT SHOULD KEEP SOME FLOW GOING AS WELL. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LAMP WHICH GIVES MAINLY MVFR IN RIVER
VALLEYS...WITH IFR AT EKN.
ALSO EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT THIS MVFR. THAT
LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION.
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.
LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE IN VICINITY OF OHIO RIVER. IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE SUNSETS. KEPT VCTS AT CVG/LUK FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP SCATTER OUT
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS OF TODAY...EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN TAFS WITH LIFR VSBYS CIGS
AT KCVG/KLUK AND POSSIBLY KILN.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT. BEST CHANCE OF ANY PCPN SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS TRYING TO REFLECT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN SHOWERS BEHIND IT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT HAPPENS TO CONVECTION HEADED INTO SW OHIO...WENT WITH A
SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE TRI-STATE WITH THIS...BUT IN A MUCH WEAKENED FORM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE
SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV
BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG
WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR
TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV.
A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.
AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR
THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF
AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES.
HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH
OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE JUICY...WITH MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.9
INCHES. H500 CHARTS SHOW A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES PASSING BY.
EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST SUPPRESSING PCPN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
GENERALLY...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.
MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE
SOME TSRA IN TAFS IN THOSE AREAS. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
HAPPENS OVERNIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG. THE SURFACE WILL BE WET DUE
TO RECENT RAIN...BUT SHOULD KEEP SOME FLOW GOING AS WELL. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LAMP WHICH GIVES MAINLY MVFR IN RIVER
VALLEYS...WITH IFR AT EKN.
ALSO EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT THIS MVFR. THAT
LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION.
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ006>008-
014>016.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-103.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME A FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU HAS
NOW MADE ITS WAY INTO NW PA. LAST FEW SHRA APPEAR TO JUST BE IN
EASTERN ERIE CO PA. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN POPS AND CLOUDS IN NW
PA THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLIGHT CHC FOR THE SNOWBELT
LATER TONIGHT AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING SE
INTO THE AREA.
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM TOMORROW`S SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
THE WEST. CURRENT SHRA OVER INDIANA SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE WEST BUT ANOTHER PUSH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE NIGHT. A FEW SHRA
COULD REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGE AROUND DAYBREAK SO WILL KEEP
A SMALL CHC POP THERE FOR THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INLAND PART OF THE EASTERN SNOWBELT WHERE LOWER 50S SHOULD
BE COMMON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WEST WILL PROBABLY HOLD LOWS IN A 58 TO 60 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WE DID
CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW FLOODING BUT SINCE WE THINK THE QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER HALF AN INCH WE HELD OFF FOR NOW. IF THIS CONVECTION
CHARGES TOWARD THE AREA STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED.
AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY EVENING IT WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
CENTRAL OHIO BUT EVEN THAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS BOUNDARY
AND A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL THEN BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FR
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT COULD VARY SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WISH THE HOLIDAY FORECAST WAS CUT AND DRY...BUT WITH THE EASTERN
U.S. MAINTAINING A BROAD TROUGH...WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE SIDED TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION TO TRY AND
PINPOINT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY BE WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
UNSURE WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS HERE SO LINGERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THROUGH ENS MEAN HAS A RIDGE BEGINNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING RAIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY LATER THIS MORNING. ERIE MAY WIN OUT TODAY AND
STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THAT
AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MORE MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. AREAS OF NON
VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE HAD TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING FOR
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. BUOY OFF OF CLEVELAND AND REPORTS OFF OF ERIE
PA STILL INDICATE 4 TO 5 FOOTERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SO WIND/WAVES WILL SETTLE. NEXT SYSTEMS TRACK OF THE
LOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EXACT
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND ON THE LAKE. HAVE TAKEN THE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AND INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A
STIFF ESE FLOW FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT
MORE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND THEREFORE WOULD YIELD
DIFFERENT WIND/WAVES ON THE LAKE. GRADIENT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER FOR
MID WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE OF NO ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT
CLEANLY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE UNTIL MAYBE THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT...WINDS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MAD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.
TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 70 96 74 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 96 69 98 73 / 30 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 72 97 75 / 60 20 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 69 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 71 95 72 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/14/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.
TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 70 96 74 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 96 69 98 73 / 30 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 72 97 75 / 60 20 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 69 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 71 95 72 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
923 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS
NORTHWARD. FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
DECREASING THE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR MASS...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DONE FOR THE DAY WITH THE LAST OF
THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE CLEARED RAIN AND
LIGHTNING CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z. THE NEXT FEATURE
TO WATCH IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO OREGON OVERNIGHT
AS IT WEAKENS AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE CASCADES AS WELL.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT SEEMS LIKE RAIN AND LIGHTNING
CHANCES FOR THE VALLEY ARE NEGLIGIBLE AT BEST AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS
AND WX OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN VALLEY IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE A BIT OF RAIN
MONDAY MORNING BUT THE NAM...WHICH SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB
WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...IS TRENDING DRYER FOR MONDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHTNING AND SHOWERS FOR THE
CASCADES.
THE OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES. LAST NIGHT AT 9PM PDX
HAD JUST FALLEN BELOW 90 DEGREES WHEREAS TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURE IS
74 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAT THIS MORNING`S 70
DEGREES. HOWEVER MODELS ARE DEVELOPING STRATUS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL LOOK TO BACKBUILD OVER THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW AT PDX OF 67 WILL BE
REASONABLE. HOWEVER IF THE TEMPERATURE FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THE
STRATUS FORMS OR IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT OCCUR...LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE PORTLAND METRO WILL MORE LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S. MODELS
SEEMS FAIRLY INSISTENT RIGHT NOW ABOUT THE STRATUS FORMATION BUT THE
CURRENTLY PRESENT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR OUT FIRST BEFORE
ANY STRATUS CAN FORM. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH APPEAR
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH LOW 60S IN THE SALEM AREA AND AROUND 60
FOR THE EUGENE AREA. WILL LIKELY BREAK MORE WARM LOW RECORDS MONDAY
AS CURRENT RECORDS IN THE VALLEY RANGE FROM 60 IN EUGENE TO 68 IN
PORTLAND BUT ONLY 64 IN VANCOUVER. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS EVENING IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST EVENING...SLEEPING CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE A BIT BETTER TONIGHT INLAND. BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...BUT THEY HAVE ONLY PRODUCED A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS OPENING UP AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT N-NE THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TOWARD 1.50 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...SEEMING TO NEED
SOME SORT OF ATMOSPHERIC TRIGGER TO SET OFF MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHTNING...SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN ABSENT SINCE THE LAST WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTED INTO WRN WA EARLIER TODAY. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
MITIGATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION THUS FAR.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRONG JUNE SUN CONTINUES TO HEAT THE SURFACE DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES IN THE CASCADES ARE NEARING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SFC-BASED
STORMS FIRE SOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER WILL ALSO COME IN THE FORM
OF A 70-90 KT SOUTHERLY JET PUSHES INTO WRN OREGON FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR
THE CASCADES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY
STARTING OFF AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION. A COUPLE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED THUNDER AS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED JET MOVES THROUGH WRN OREGON. EITHER ROUND MAY OR MAY
NOT OCCUR...SO DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND NOT TRY TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ON TIMING. WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDER TONIGHT LIFTING N-NE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO WA EARLY MON.
THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER MONDAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
MONDAY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF +18 DEG C TEMPS WILL STILL
APPROACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...THE SAME ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RECENT HEAT...WILL REBUILD ANOTHER RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW MIDWEEK.
ODDS ARE GOOD THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF 90S INLAND
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE 590S AND 850 MB TEMPS PUSH WELL ABOVE
20 DEG C WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH NO COOLDOWN IN SIGHT...IT APPEARS TO BE A LOCK FOR MULTIPLE
INLAND LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO BREAK THEIR ALL-TIME RECORDS
FOR THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO BRING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSITION
US TO MORE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT LESS HOT NEXT
WEEKEND...LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER EAST OF OUR AREA WHICH WILL KEEP US
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. -MCCOY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW IS ROTATING A SWATH OF DRIER
AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE OREGON
BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THAT BOUNDARY OF MOIST AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BECOME ORIENTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL FEEL LIKE WE
ARE WALKING A FINE LINE BETWEEN LAL 2 AND LAL 3 STRIKE COUNTS AND
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
DESPITE THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE. COULD GET ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS WEST BUT DON`T FEEL THERE WILL BE THE SAME DEGREE OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
ON MONDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH CASCADES BUT WILL NEED TO
GET HEATING AND MOISTURE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS WILL FINALLY STABILIZE SOMEWHAT AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES SOME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO KEEPING ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE ZONES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SO. THE VERY
WARM...DRY...AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD HELP ANY HOLDOVERS MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CASCADES WHERE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN WITH GREATER INTENSITY OVER TIME.
WEAGLE/JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW KEPT
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OVER AT
THIS POINT FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER
TOWARD THE CASCADES LATER TONIGHT.
SHALLOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...INCLUDING KONP. THE STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE LATEST
FCST MODELS ALSO INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...BACK BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO SOME OF THE VALLEY TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z MON. THEN EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE
MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS
TO BE OVER AT THIS POINT. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A 2500 TO
3500 FT CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL EARLY MON MORNING. THIS CLOUD
BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH LIGHT S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NW LATER MON.
WESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 4 FT CONTINUES. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE RETURN OF GUSTY N WINDS AS TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SW OREGON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 605-ZONE
606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 660.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VRY WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD BASES BETWEEN
3.5-4.5 KFT AGL FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AS A WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A FEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/SCT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA.
THU-FRI...AGAIN MAINLY VFR....BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ON D3/WED AS THE
MAIN MID-LVL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
UPSTATE NY/CENTRAL PA BY 18Z. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO D2 WITH THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY/LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD INTO ERN PA. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND POSE AT LEAST A
LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
THE LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT WITH
TIME...PERHAPS REVERTING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MID-
LATITUDE FLOW REGIME WITH THE MAIN BELT OF ZONAL WESTERLIES
ALIGNED NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
DESPITE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF
THE WRN THROUGH FROM THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN REMAINS LOW
ALTHOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING RAINS
THU/FRI ALONG THE D3/WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO
BECOME QUASI-STNRY FROM SRN NJ WSWWD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VRY WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD BASES BETWEEN
3.5-4.5 KFT AGL FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AS A WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A FEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/SCT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA.
THU-FRI...AGAIN MAINLY VFR....BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PD.
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY 18Z. THUS...AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH AFT AND EVE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED. SOME
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR AS AMPLIFICATION COMMENCES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH TO COVER THE LATENIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME EXPANSION TO THE REST OF THE MID-STATE IS
ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR OUTPUT THROUGH 00Z. THE KBNA
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE 750MB-
550MB LAYER AND A PW VALUE OF ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...SO ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER SPC...WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIMEFRAME ATTM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH TAF SITES...GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. THINK HIGHS WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ESPECIALLY WEST WITH MOST
LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 80S EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SPARK NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND DECREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS ON THAT FRONT IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL SAY
GOODBYE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
PINPOINTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE QUITE DIFFICULT SINCE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL DEVIATE FROM DAY TO DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AROUND THE CORNER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT THINK
THE AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTION
PATTERN OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 69 88 68 / 30 40 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 85 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 40
CROSSVILLE 81 66 81 65 / 30 30 60 50
COLUMBIA 86 68 87 68 / 30 40 50 30
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 86 68 / 30 40 50 30
WAVERLY 85 69 87 69 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1022 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME EXPANSION TO THE REST OF THE MID-STATE IS
ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR OUTPUT THROUGH 00Z. THE KBNA
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE 750MB-
550MB LAYER AND A PW VALUE OF ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...SO ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER SPC...WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIMEFRAME ATTM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH TAF SITES...GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. THINK HIGHS WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ESPECIALLY WEST WITH MOST
LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 80S EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SPARK NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND DECREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS ON THAT FRONT IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL SAY
GOODBYE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
PINPOINTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE QUITE DIFFICULT SINCE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL DEVIATE FROM DAY TO DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AROUND THE CORNER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT THINK
THE AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTION
PATTERN OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 69 88 68 / 30 40 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 85 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 40
CROSSVILLE 81 66 81 65 / 30 30 60 50
COLUMBIA 86 68 87 68 / 30 40 50 30
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 86 68 / 30 40 50 30
WAVERLY 85 69 87 69 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
ONE MAIN AREA OVER THE NW DRIVEN BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE OTHER OVER THE SE WITH A
IMPULSE ALOFT PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THESE BANDS TO THE NW REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN LINGERING
INSTABILITY OF OVER 1K J/KG ESPCLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET. ALSO EVENING
RNK SOUNDING QUITE UNSTABLE WITHOUT ANY CAPPING SO STILL SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT INTO THE NEW/ROA VALLEYS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THINGS TO FINALLY
FADE. HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS OF MOST CELLS STAYING BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...WENT AHEAD AND LET SEVERE WATCH 377 EXPIRE WITH MOSTLY
ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST. DID BUMP UP POPS TO GO WITH MORE COVERAGE
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY FADING. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED AND MORE
CLEARING TAKES SHAPE LATE.
UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS
SWINGING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WEST FROM WESTERN KY INTO THE
SMOKYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS GIVEN THIS.
MARGINAL RISK OF SVR REMAINS AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA
TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN SCATTERED STORMS...WITH
LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT ONE OF THE
STRONGER WAVES MOVES OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA ALSO
FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET IN
NEW ENGLAND.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING HIGHEST CAPES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...AS PWATS SOAR TO 1.5 TO 2.0" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
NC ON FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH A EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR
WEST AND FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
U.S. UNDER AN UPPER TROF THAT FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE STRONGER AND
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS....BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE PERIMETER THIS EVENING WITH AN
IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND UPSTREAM OUTFLOW
DRIVEN BROKEN BANDS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WILL NEED TO
INIT WITH EITHER VCTS/VCSH OVER THE SE WEST VA SITES WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ALSO MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT KDAN FOR CURRENT PASSING
ISOLATED COVERAGE. OTRW RUNNING WITHOUT MUCH CONVECTION OTHER THAN
FOR A BRIEF VCSH INCLUSION ELSW INTO THE EVENING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE
SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT KLWB AND KDAN
WHERE SOME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. IF KLWB DOES SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL...THEN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR IN DENSE FOG THERE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM KBLF-KBCB AND
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS...DETERIORATING INTO IFR TEMPORARILY
IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...WATCH FOR STRONG MICROBURST TYPE
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 01-02Z. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS/FOG
WITH SETUP UP AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
LOOKING FOR KRST TO SLIP INTO IFR AFTER 07Z AND KLSE AROUND 09Z.
PLAN ON IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR RANGE AGAIN AFTER 14Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OR APPROXIMATELY 2-8PM TIME
FRAME. WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE CULPRIT...A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS WRITING...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHEAST WI. A COUPLE
1 INCH HAIL REPORTS CAME OUT OF THE DULUTH MN NWS OFFICE. MAIN
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL OF AROUND
AN INCH TO POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZE. SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE
MICROBURST TYPE WINDS OF 40-50 MPH GIVEN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
BEING DEPICTED BY THE NAM/RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IMPULSE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM/HRRR...SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE 29.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z
TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN ARE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES. THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/RAP
SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MANLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THIS LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP BUILD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. WITH THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING A FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTION
WITH THE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLUS...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND DEVELOP A DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WESTERN SHIFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IS TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 29.00Z MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE IMPULSES. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS...DETERIORATING INTO IFR
TEMPORARILY IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...WATCH FOR STRONG
MICROBURST TYPE WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION
TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 01-02Z. LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS/FOG WITH SETUP UP AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOOKING FOR KRST TO SLIP INTO
IFR AFTER 07Z AND KLSE AROUND 09Z. PLAN ON IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR
RANGE AGAIN AFTER 14Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IMPULSE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM/HRRR...SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE 29.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z
TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN ARE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES. THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/RAP
SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MANLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THIS LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP BUILD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. WITH THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING A FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTION
WITH THE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLUS...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND DEVELOP A DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WESTERN SHIFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IS TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 29.00Z MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE IMPULSES. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
ALLOWED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR BR/FG/CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THRU 13Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
LATE JUNE SUNSHINE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WORK TO DISSIPATE THE BR/FG.
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FROM 14-22Z APPEARS QUIET WITH SCT VFR CUMULUS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENT TIMING CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GUIDANCE WOULD SPREAD THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES
IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME-FRAME...THOUGH A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD BE IN THE
AREA AS EARLY AS 20Z. WILL LEAVE A VCTS/CB MENTION AT BOTH KRST/KLSE
IN THE 22Z-01Z PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE MORNING...FOR
GENERALLY GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA EXIT. MAY YET NEED
A BR MENTION AT KLSE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT BUT LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW AS
RADIATIONAL FOG SIGNAL FOR TONIGHT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IMPULSE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM/HRRR...SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE 29.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z
TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN ARE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES. THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/RAP
SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MANLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THIS LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP BUILD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. WITH THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING A FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTION
WITH THE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLUS...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND DEVELOP A DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WESTERN SHIFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IS TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 29.00Z MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE IMPULSES. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE NO LONGER NEAR EITHER AIRPORT AND THE
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...APPEARS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. SOME SITES ARE ALREADY GOING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND EXPECT THE FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL START TO INCREASE THE FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO FORM. THE 29.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THESE MODELS. WILL ADD IN A VCTS FOR
BOTH SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND LET LATER
FORECASTS REFINE THE TIMING ON THE STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
542 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPRELLE CREEK AND WINDY PEAK
SNOTELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT OUTSIDE THIS AREA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ECHOES
ARE ELEVATED. 1PM HUMIDITY AT CHEYENNE AT 19 PERCENT...DOUGLAS AT
24 PERCENT...LARAMIE 21 PERCENT...SO THESE ECHOES ARE GOING TO
TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO REACH THE GROUND. SO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500J/KG
CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING. NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE PANHANDLE
JUST LOST THEIR CAP OUT THAT WAY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG.
JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EXISTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
STILL HOLDING GOOD UP THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR SHOWS INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. OVERALL
THOUGH...DO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE ECMWF. GFS HAS FRONT FURTHER EAST
IN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...DI NOT CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING FRONT LIFTING ENE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWING PWATS ALMOST TO 1.3 INCHES
WITH LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. GOOD NEWS IS FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...SO DO THINK WE ARE OK FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DURING THAT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SW CONUS THIS PERIOD
WITH A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
BRINGING A MODEST COOL DOWN INTO MONDAY BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND
TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD HELP PCPN CHANCES
MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z OR 03Z
FOR THE WYOMING TAF SITES...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...TURBULENCE AND MVFR.
VFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WYOMING TAF SITES PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS AND MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE SEEING WETTING RAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SHOWERS TO REACH
THE GROUND AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES QUITE LOW. EVENTUALLY
THOUGH...MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND FUELS ARE GREEN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
AS OF 06Z THERE IS A LARGE MCS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. THE HRRR HAS THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST AND REACHING OUR
WESTERN WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WE EXPECT THE LONG WAVE THROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A TYPE 5 SEA BREEZE PATTERN WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE WATER AND COAST THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION IN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AS TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR
REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
BEHIND THURSDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH DRYING. OUR FORECAST POP IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
POSSIBILITIES, IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90
THURSDAY, THEN LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
RELATIVELY WEAK 500 MB FLOW (20 KT OR LESS) SUGGEST A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THIS DOESN`T HAPPEN IN OUR AREA VERY OFTEN DURING THE SUMMER, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SOLUTION EVENTUALLY PINCHES OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER OUR REGION, WHILE THE
ECMWF BUILDS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE IT`S
UNCLEAR WHICH WILL BE CORRECT, WE WILL TAKE THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS, WHICH YIELDS NEAR-CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AT TLH AND VLD. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TODAY, SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE BERMUDA
RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AS RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES ON SOME OF THE
RIVERS. HOWEVER, THE MMEFS KEEPS RIVER STAGES BELOW THEIR LOCAL
ACTION STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON OUR LOCAL ENSEMBLE
OF CAMS, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES
OF A POINT DURING A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 70 20 30
PANAMA CITY 86 78 87 79 87 / 40 30 30 20 30
DOTHAN 91 73 89 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 30
ALBANY 91 72 90 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 40
VALDOSTA 91 71 90 73 93 / 50 30 70 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 74 91 74 92 / 30 20 40 20 30
APALACHICOLA 89 78 88 78 89 / 40 30 30 20 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES TODAY. KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AFFECT THE TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 17Z TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION AT KAPF
TAF SITE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION..54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 81 90 / 10 20 10 30
MIAMI 79 91 80 91 / 10 20 10 30
NAPLES 76 93 76 92 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
943 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
HOURLY GRIDS FOR WIND AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER WITH EARLIER
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/IL...WHILE A COMBINED
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD SURGED INLAND ACROSS NE IL/NW
IND AND EAST CENTRAL IL SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AN AREA
OF FOG HAD INITIALLY DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WEB CAMERAS INDICATE
THAT FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LIFTING INTO A LOW CEILING AND
SCATTERING AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR ARRIVES. 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO. FARTHER WEST...CIRRUS WAS SPILLING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. SOME
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR
OBS UPSTREAM...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE...BUT 10Z-16Z SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IF IT DOES OCCUR. A LAKE BREEZE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE WIND AOA 10 KT UNTIL THE
EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER AGAIN.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
314 AM CDT
NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AT TIMES IN
BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ABATING FROM THE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LOOK TO FRESHEN UP AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
943 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO
HOURLY GRIDS FOR WIND AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER WITH EARLIER
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/IL...WHILE A COMBINED
LAKE BREEZE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD SURGED INLAND ACROSS NE IL/NW
IND AND EAST CENTRAL IL SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AN AREA
OF FOG HAD INITIALLY DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. WEB CAMERAS INDICATE
THAT FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LIFTING INTO A LOW CEILING AND
SCATTERING AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR ARRIVES. 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO. FARTHER WEST...CIRRUS WAS SPILLING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. SOME
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR
OBS UPSTREAM...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE...BUT 10Z-16Z SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IF IT DOES OCCUR. A LAKE BREEZE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE WIND AOA 10 KT UNTIL THE
EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER AGAIN.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
STORY REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...THE STORY WILL BE THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST
THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. IN GENERAL A
FEW LIFTING METHODS EXIST...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE IN
THEIR OWN RIGHT...INCLUDING WAA MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SHORT WAVE VORT MAX...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE STRONGEST...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORM IN WESTERN HALF OF IOWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA TO LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THIS THE BEST SO FAR...WITH OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING AGREEING. WITH PRIMARILY AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AND SHOULD BE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. REGARDING SMOKE...HIGHS DID HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING GUIDANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL WERE
NOT TOO FAR OFF. DID NOT DO MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP INTO WED...AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A GRADUAL CHANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVOLVING FROM WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH TO A BROADER MEAN
TROUGH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT ONSET THE FOCUS WILL
BE ON LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN GREAT
LAKES JET AND FORCING WITH CURRENT MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN SHORT WAVE.
WEAK/MODERATE AND FAIRLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WILL PASS THROUGH IA WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL LIMITS HOWEVER SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME WEAK PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO MO/IL
BY 06Z. CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN SOUTH AND WEST INTO THU AND THU
NIGHT WITH JUST TOKEN FORCING IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BUT
CONTINUED AIRMASS STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RELATIVELY
INACTIVE.
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GULF OF AK
LOW PASSING THROUGH WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
INTO FAIRLY BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF WARMING AND INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
TIMING QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL BE REALIZED HOWEVER WITH
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FASTER THAN RESPECTIVE GFS 12Z SOLUTION. ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THUS WILL HIT
POPS THE HARDEST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH HIGH PLAINS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY REACHING IA INTO THE NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO KEEP IT GOING IN SOME FORM INTO MON. GFS
MLCAPES SUGGEST VALUES MAY REACH 2-3K DURING PEAK HEATING. DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION SO SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE THERE...BUT SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FROPA.
OUTSIDE OF WARMING SURGE JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS
PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL TO VARIED DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN
SEEMS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDER MAINLY AFFECTING SW IOWA ATTM.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY ALOFT FOCUSING CONVECTION SW OF TAF
SITES AND HAVE LESSENED COVERAGE -SHRA THROUGH 10Z AT KFOD AND
KDSM/KOTM. UPSTREAM MCS OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
TOGETHER WITH SOME SUPPORT OF NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS NOW...THIS SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST AREAS AFT 10Z AND
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...MOST LIKELY WEAKENING AS
IT DOES. LIKELY THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH SOME
MVFR DEVELOPING ONCE -SHRA CROSS REGION WED. BY 00Z THU SHOWERS
WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST. WINDS MIX AFT 17Z WITH GUSTS 15KTS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS
CLOSER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON; AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
SIMPLY GROW UPSCALE OR WHETHER RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
SEVERE. IF CONVECTION IS DISCRETE, THEN VERY LARGE HAIL (>2.75")
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF THE WIND
AND HIGH CAPE VALUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY, ALL THE COOL OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY
HAMPER STORM SEVERITY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
POSSIBLE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ON SATURDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAY EVENINGS CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 8-12KT. WIND SHIFT AT KHYS AROUND 18Z, THEN
21Z AT KGCK, AND 23-00Z AT KDDC. MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ALSO. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF KGCK AND KDDC AFTER
21Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 98 68 92 / 0 20 20 40
GCK 71 98 69 90 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 70 99 70 91 / 0 20 20 40
LBL 71 100 71 92 / 0 20 20 40
HYS 73 97 68 90 / 10 10 20 30
P28 73 100 71 94 / 0 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED AS EVEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG
ONES ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLUEGRASS WHICH WILL LIKELY
AFFECT OUR CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR
STRAY STORMS ARE FOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...PER RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAWN. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS FOR THIS AS WELL AS SENT OUT FRESHENED ZONES AND A CALMER
HWO. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DESCENDING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH STORMS JUST TRAILING AND SOME
DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST. THE WORST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
JUST TOUCHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH EVERY SCAN OF THE RADAR PROVIDING
CRITICAL DATA FOR THE EVOLVING CELLS. TO THE SOUTH...EARLIER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE SEEMED TO MAKE FOR QUIETER
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AS THE OUTFLOW IS NOW THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE
WATCH...DUE TO EXPIRE IN AN HOUR...FROM THE SOUTH WHILE KEEPING IT
IN THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHERN STORMS AND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALSO...INCORPORATED THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR POPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...DID TWEAK THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...COLD POOLS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESH SETS OF
ZONES AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN
THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY
TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN
HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE
HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION
MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON
AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE
ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND
ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS.
SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN
POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED
COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY
LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LAST TWO PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS
WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF HEAT INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN LEFT OVER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN. SEVERAL
TAF SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING FOG...AND IF THEY CONTINUE TO DROP
IN VISIBILITY SOME MAY ACTUALLY GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS FOR A PERIOD BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...SOME TAF SITES MAY
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CATEGORIES DEPENDING ON THE VARYING
DEGREE OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. AS THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE
MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO
GEAR TAFS TOWARD THIS IDEA...BUT ACTUAL VIS AND CIGS WILL VARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STORMS DEVELOP AND PASS NEARBY...OR EVEN
OVER THE TAF SITE. A HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE
EVENING...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE EXACT
IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AND
MVFR/HIGH END IFR VIS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SHORTWAVES IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU AND 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WHICH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA INTO FRI NIGHT.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO PUT IN
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AS A FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD COME INTO PLAY AND KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DURING THE STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
HAVING A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEN AND THEN
CARRY THIS OVER TO FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN FOR WHEN FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z SAT WITH A STRONG AND BROAD TROUGH OVER SW CANADA
THAT IS TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS
ALSO A DIEING SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE U.P. ON SATURDAY AS DEPICTED
BY THE MANUAL PROGS AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FOR
LAKE BREEZE PRONE AREAS. THE TROUGH IN SW CANADA MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z SUN AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND THEN WITH TROUGHING STILL OVER THE AREA
FOR TUE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN LAKE BREEZE ZONES STILL LOOKS LIKE A
POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
AS HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VERY
CLOSE TO KSAW...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY HALT THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING...RESULTING
IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KSAW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IF CLOUDS DO
LINGER LONGER...THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BACK.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
AS HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VERY
CLOSE TO KSAW...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY HALT THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING...RESULTING
IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KSAW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IF CLOUDS DO
LINGER LONGER...THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BACK.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MN TONIGHT...THE TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KMSP...
QUIET WEATHER WITH NO LOW CLOUDS AND OR VIS RESTRICTION EXPECTED
AT MSP FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.
AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.
POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...THERE IS A LINGERING THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL
HANDLE THE MENTION WITH A VCTS GROUP THROUGH 09Z AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL...AND THROUGH 12Z FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL MAKE IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KTS WEDS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS WEDS EVE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY. INIT
SHRT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE N HAS NOT SPARKED ANY SHRA/TSRA
ALONG CST YET...STILL COULD SEE SOME FORM THRU DAYBREAK BUT
STARTING LOOK LIKE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER CSTL WTRS. LATER TODAYS
MDLS...ESPCLY GFS SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE W.
THIS SHLD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA THREAT...HOWEVER WITH HEATING WILL KEEP
ISOLD POP ALL AREAS THIS AFTN BUT THINK VAST MJRTY OF LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPR 80S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...FAIRLY QUIET WX SHLD CONT AS AXIS OF MID LVL
DRIER AIR SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE W LATE BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR
NOW. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR
70S CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM WED...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...01/00ZZ MODEL SUITE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF EASTERN CONUS
LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHANCE COAST AS INC PWS AND GOOD MID AND
UPR SUPPORT COMBINE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN
THE DAY. HAVE LINGERED THE HIGH POPS INTO THE EVENING AND SHIFTED
TOWARDS THE COAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW ACTING TO KEEP PRECIP ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST...AND BULK SHEAR IS
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON MAXING
OUT LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. INCREASING SRLY 850MB FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH STALLED
LOW LEVEL SFC BOUNDARY OVER E NC. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS
INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS
EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S AND KEEP AFTERNOON
CAPES RELATIVELY LOW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS. AGAIN
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MARGINAL
SEVERE PARAMETERS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...THOUGH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLN WHICH IS MORE ISO TO SCT IN NATURE WITH
PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50 POPS ATTM DUE
TO DAYS 5-7 FORECAST PERIODS AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN.
NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 90 DURING THE DAY AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN THRU DAYBREAK IS POSS OF SOME
LOWER CIGS SPREADING IN FROM THE W...ESPCLY SW TIER. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE LOWER ST ON SATL BUT APPEARS TO BE
AN AREA SPREADING NE FROM SC. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOWER CIGS REACHING
SRN TIER LATER BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR ALL NIGHT SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
REACHING TERMINALS AND DID NOT ADD TO FCST. IF WE DO GET LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY MID MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCT CU EXPECTED. CONT VFR TONIGHT...AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POSS OF SOME ST BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO FCST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM WED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY LATE THUR THROUGH
FRIDAY) WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING
HEAVY RAIN EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
10-15 KNOTS BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS
OF FOG EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT
RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...STRONGER SW WINDS ARE FCST TO GRAD SUBSIDE THRU
DAYBREAK HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS.
WILL LIKELY END SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND WITH NEXT FCST PKG AND
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT S OF OCRACOKE LATER THIS MORN
SO WILL LIKELY DROP SCA FOR THAT SECTION LATER AS WELL. SW WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
YDAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SW WINDS
WILL AGAIN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVER CNTRL WTRS WITH SCA CONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM WED...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INC TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT OR HIGH ON THUR AS SW GRADIENT INCREASES...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BUILD OR MAINTAIN 6 TO 7 FT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
THE PAMLICO SOUND ON THUR. LINGERING 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR THE OREGON INLET TO CAPE
LOOKOUT SECTION.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY. INIT
SHRT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE N HAS NOT SPARKED ANY
SHRA/TSRA ALONG CST YET...STILL COULD SEE SOME FORM THRU DAYBREAK
BUT STARTING LOOK LIKE WOULD BE MAINLY OVER CSTL WTRS. LATER
TODAYS MDLS...ESPCLY GFS SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR SPREADING IN FROM
THE W. THIS SHLD LIMIT SHRA/TSRA THREAT...HOWEVER WITH HEATING
WILL KEEP ISOLD POP ALL AREAS THIS AFTN BUT THINK VAST MJRTY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND
TO UPR 80S BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...FAIRLY QUIET WX SHLD CONT AS AXIS OF MID LVL
DRIER AIR SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE W LATE BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR
NOW. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S INLAND TO
UPR 70S CST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD
UPPER TROF SHARPENS AT TIMES AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH TO
THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN THRU DAYBREAK IS POSS OF SOME
LOWER CIGS SPREADING IN FROM THE W...ESPCLY SW TIER. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE LOWER ST ON SATL BUT APPEARS TO BE
AN AREA SPREADING NE FROM SC. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOWER CIGS REACHING
SRN TIER LATER BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR ALL NIGHT SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
REACHING TERMINALS AND DID NOT ADD TO FCST. IF WE DO GET LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY MID MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCT CU EXPECTED. CONT VFR TONIGHT...AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POSS OF SOME ST BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO FCST.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL 4 TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15
KNOTS BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...STRONGER SW WINDS ARE FCST TO GRAD SUBSIDE THRU
DAYBREAK HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS.
WILL LIKELY END SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND WITH NEXT FCST PKG AND
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT S OF OCRACOKE LATER THIS MORN
SO WILL LIKELY DROP SCA FOR THAT SECTION LATER AS WELL. SW WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
YDAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SW WINDS
WILL AGAIN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVER CNTRL WTRS WITH SCA CONT.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4-6 FOOT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1211 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DIMINISHED AS APPROACHED
ERN NC AND NOW JUST HAVE LEFT OVER DEBRIS TYPE SHRA OVER FAR NW
TIER. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK INSTAB...ESPCLY CST AND SHRT WAVE
CROSSING TO THE N SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT POP IN NEXT FEW HRS ALL
AREAS THEN CST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 DEEP INLAND TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES. GUSTY SW WINDS CNTRL/SRN BEACHES SHLD DIMINISH
A BIT LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING SHORT WAVE PASSAGE TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE CANT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WED AFTN SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP, ALTHO MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS MAINLY
LOWS 90S WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD
UPPER TROF SHARPENS AT TIMES AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH TO
THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HIGH LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER
REGION CURRENTLY BUT THESE SHLD DIMINISH LATER. HRRR SHOWS SOME
LOWER CIGS APPROACHING CSTL PLAIN TWRD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY
KEEPS IT JUST W OF TAFS AND WITH OTHER GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH
WILL NOT HAVE ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN. MDLS SHOW LIMITED IF ANY
CONVECTION TODAY SO MAINLY EXPECTING SOME SCT CU.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4
TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...NO CHANGES AS GUSTY WINDS CONT OVER CNTRL WTRS
AND PAMLICO SOUND...THESE WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
SO SCA WILL END PAMLICO LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH CONT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS...POSS SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KT DURING EVENING. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
CNTRL WTRS TONIGHT AND CONT SCA FROM LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET THRU
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4-6 FOOT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/BTC/HSA/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
DENSE FOG AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAMPER VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND KMOT AND
KISN. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT...WHERE VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.
LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
ONE MAIN AREA OVER THE NW DRIVEN BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE OTHER OVER THE SE WITH A
IMPULSE ALOFT PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THESE BANDS TO THE NW REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN LINGERING
INSTABILITY OF OVER 1K J/KG ESPCLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET. ALSO EVENING
RNK SOUNDING QUITE UNSTABLE WITHOUT ANY CAPPING SO STILL SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT INTO THE NEW/ROA VALLEYS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THINGS TO FINALLY
FADE. HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS OF MOST CELLS STAYING BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...WENT AHEAD AND LET SEVERE WATCH 377 EXPIRE WITH MOSTLY
ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST. DID BUMP UP POPS TO GO WITH MORE COVERAGE
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY FADING. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED AND MORE
CLEARING TAKES SHAPE LATE.
UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS
SWINGING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WEST FROM WESTERN KY INTO THE
SMOKYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS GIVEN THIS.
MARGINAL RISK OF SVR REMAINS AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA
TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN SCATTERED STORMS...WITH
LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT ONE OF THE
STRONGER WAVES MOVES OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA ALSO
FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET IN
NEW ENGLAND.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING HIGHEST CAPES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...AS PWATS SOAR TO 1.5 TO 2.0" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
NC ON FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH A EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DROPPED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR
WEST AND FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN
U.S. UNDER AN UPPER TROF THAT FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE STRONGER AND
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS....BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION...LEAVING GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
RUNNING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES ON NW FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS TO KBCB AND KBLF. KLWB SEEMS TO FIND A WAY TO FOG IN AND WITH
LIGHT FOG ALREADY AT THE STATION AFTER SOME PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...WILL FORECAST LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK THOUGH IF
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS EARLY AND SHUTS OFF THE COOLING THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE. WILL GO WITH MFVR FOG AT KLYH SINCE THEY HAD A GOOD DOSE
OF RAIN BUT WILL STAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AT KROA AND KDAN.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA AND HELP GENERATE
SOME VFR CIGS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR LOCATION OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AND SEE IF LATER
MESO MODEL RUNS CAN COME TO A CONSENSUS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...MBS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1226 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPRELLE CREEK AND WINDY PEAK
SNOTELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT OUTSIDE THIS AREA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ECHOES
ARE ELEVATED. 1PM HUMIDITY AT CHEYENNE AT 19 PERCENT...DOUGLAS AT
24 PERCENT...LARAMIE 21 PERCENT...SO THESE ECHOES ARE GOING TO
TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO REACH THE GROUND. SO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500J/KG
CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING. NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE PANHANDLE
JUST LOST THEIR CAP OUT THAT WAY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG.
JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EXISTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
STILL HOLDING GOOD UP THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR SHOWS INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. OVERALL
THOUGH...DO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE ECMWF. GFS HAS FRONT FURTHER EAST
IN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...DI NOT CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING FRONT LIFTING ENE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWING PWATS ALMOST TO 1.3 INCHES
WITH LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. GOOD NEWS IS FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...SO DO THINK WE ARE OK FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DURING THAT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SW CONUS THIS PERIOD
WITH A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
BRINGING A MODEST COOL DOWN INTO MONDAY BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND
TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD HELP PCPN CHANCES
MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 07Z FOR
SIDNEY TAF SITES...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...TURBULENCE AND MVFR.
VFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WYOMING TAF SITES PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS AND MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE SEEING WETTING RAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SHOWERS TO REACH
THE GROUND AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES QUITE LOW. EVENTUALLY
THOUGH...MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND FUELS ARE GREEN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SAR
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.
SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND FOR
THE OTHER TERMINALS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [329 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
AS OF 06Z THERE IS A LARGE MCS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA MOVING
EASTWARD. THE HRRR HAS THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST AND REACHING OUR
WESTERN WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WE EXPECT THE LONG WAVE THROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A TYPE 5 SEA BREEZE PATTERN WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE WATER AND COAST THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION IN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE AS TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR
REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
BEHIND THURSDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH DRYING. OUR FORECAST POP IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
POSSIBILITIES, IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90
THURSDAY, THEN LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
RELATIVELY WEAK 500 MB FLOW (20 KT OR LESS) SUGGEST A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THIS DOESN`T HAPPEN IN OUR AREA VERY OFTEN DURING THE SUMMER, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SOLUTION EVENTUALLY PINCHES OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER OUR REGION, WHILE THE
ECMWF BUILDS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE IT`S
UNCLEAR WHICH WILL BE CORRECT, WE WILL TAKE THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS, WHICH YIELDS NEAR-CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE BERMUDA
RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AS RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES ON SOME OF THE
RIVERS. HOWEVER, THE MMEFS KEEPS RIVER STAGES BELOW THEIR LOCAL
ACTION STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON OUR LOCAL ENSEMBLE
OF CAMS, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES
OF A POINT DURING A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 70 20 30
PANAMA CITY 86 78 87 79 87 / 40 30 30 20 30
DOTHAN 91 73 89 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 30
ALBANY 91 72 90 74 92 / 40 40 60 30 40
VALDOSTA 91 71 90 73 93 / 50 30 70 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 74 91 74 92 / 30 20 40 20 30
APALACHICOLA 89 78 88 78 89 / 40 30 30 20 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. ONLY CONCERN IS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN
MN...POSSIBLY GRAZING ST. CLOUD FROM THE WEST. STILL...CEILINGS
AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST OR ESE.
KMSP...EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE METRO AS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPS US STAY DRY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.
AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.
POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. FOG AND SMOKE HAS REDUCED VSBY
TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR BY 15Z.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS WY AND SRN ALBERTA
SHOULD DROP THROUGH NEB SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM COVERAGE COULD BECOME LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB
06Z-12Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.
OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER KISN AND KMOT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VLIFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS OBSERVED PERIODICALLY. LOW
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DROPPED KDIK INTO IFR CONDITIONS.
ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 925 AM...ADJUSTED PRIMARILY THE POP AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IS APPARENT ON THE VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PROBABLY AP AROUND 12KFT OR SO.
NOTHING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME SCT CELLS
SHOWING UP ON THE MRX RADAR OVER EASTERN TN. THOSE CELLS WERE MOVING
EAST AND SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE THERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A VORT LOBE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 06Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR BRING THE REMNANTS
OF THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS NOT BUYING INTO THAT ANTICIPATING IT WILL DISSIPATE AND
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOWS THAT PERHAPS WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING IN TN. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE WHEN 12Z DATA ARRIVES.
1000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.
AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...JULY KICKS OFF WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
PATTER FEATURING AND EASTERN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE. ONE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE TROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER
DIVES INTO IT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY..FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
ONE THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL TO OUR NORTH
TODAY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR EAST. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...HOWEVER SHEAR
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED...AND MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. STEERING FLOW WILL
KEEPS CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BLUE
RIDGE...LIMITING UPLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF FLATTENING OUT TO OUR WEST AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM LIFTING NE WHILE NUMEROUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A BROAD PLUME OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LEE TROFFING EXPECTED TO SET UP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
POPS STEADILY RAMP UP THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
CATEGORICAL VALUES CARRIED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION AND
LIKELY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. SPC STILL HAS OUR CWFA IN THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NOW INCLUDING OUR
WESTERN CORNER...AS OF THEIR MOST RECENT UPDATE THIS MORNING.
MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SOME DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
BOTH THURS AND FRI. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST
AREA WELL INTO FRI AS A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FRI
MORNING. THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWFA LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER
LEE TROF DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. PW VALUES
REMAIN HIGH THRU MOST OF THE SHORT TERM...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY AND START OUT JUST BELOW CLIMO ON
THURS. THEY WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND END
UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS
OUT OVER THE SE REGION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES ON SAT AND INTO SUN WITH A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE SUN/EARLY MON. AFTER THIS FEATURE
LIFTS TO THE NE ON MON...HEIGHTS REBOUND AGAIN AND THE PATTERN
REMAINS FLAT THRU DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING SWLY LOW LVL FLOW.
THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK LEE TROFFING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT LIVED MESO LOWS ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST PW VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR
SAT AND SUN. TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON SAT AND WARM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TOPPING OUT
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR CIGS DEVELOPED AT AIRFIELD IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SURROUNDING SITES. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE FORECASTS A VERY SHORT
DURATION LIFR EVENT. HENCE...WILL DISSIPATE LOW CIGS BY 14Z.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK PROMISING FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS HEATING PROMOTES INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VSBY AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT WITH MVFR VSBY AT MOST SURROUNDING SITES.
ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS DAYBREAK MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KAND...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
MARGINAL. A LIFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL GIVEN THE CURRENT FEW002
THERE. CIGS LOOK LESS LIKELY AT FOOTHILL SITES AS NO CLOUD COVER IS
OBSERVED THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOW VFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS
GOING IN EARNEST...THAT TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATE. WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE SW...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP VALLEY FORM THE NW. ON THURSDAY MORNING GUIDANCE HITS
KAVL WITH DAYBREAK MVFR FOG...AND KHKY WITH LOW VFR FOG.
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT/LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
AS OF 945 AM ACROSS THE REGION...A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS DEPICT THE COMPLEX MAINTAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THOSE AREAS OF WEST TN NEAREST THE TN RIVER...AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A HINDRANCE TO DECENT DAYTIME HEATING TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TN AND EAST AR...WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEING ON
TRACK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE THE
LOWEST CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO POPS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG I-70 IN MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR KANSAS CITY AND BEING FED BY A 35 KT
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...AS OF 4 AM CDT THE MID SOUTH IS
RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
NORTH OF I-44 IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS
REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS MCS MAY WEAKEN AS IT COMES INTO
THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 3000-4000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40
KTS...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT WORKED OVER INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A 40 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY. FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
POSE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH.
LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
PRODUCING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO SOME LINGERING TIMING/COVERAGE
CONCERNS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO POSE A THREAT
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...
CJC
&&
.AVIATON...
12Z TAFS
A GRADUALLY TSRA COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MO WAS MOVING SE AT
1145Z. A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION /MCV/ FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN LATER THIS MORNING...HELPING
TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSRA TOWARD MIDDAY. HRRR TAKES THIS
ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO MS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE MCV ON KSGF
RADAR.
TIMING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TSRA COMPLEXES CAN BE CHALLENGING. WITH
THAT SAID...06Z NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER TSRA COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE MIDSOUTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY...AFFECTING JBR AND POSSIBLY
THE OUTBOUND MEM CARGO PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG I-70 IN MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR KANSAS CITY AND BEING FED BY A 35 KT
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...AS OF 4 AM CDT THE MID SOUTH IS
RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
NORTH OF I-44 IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS
REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS MCS MAY WEAKEN AS IT COMES INTO
THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 3000-4000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40
KTS...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT WORKED OVER INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A 40 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE MID SOUTH
ON THURSDAY. FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
POSE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH.
LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
PRODUCING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO SOME LINGERING TIMING/COVERAGE
CONCERNS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO POSE A THREAT
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
A GRADUALLY TSRA COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MO WAS MOVING SE AT
1145Z. A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION /MCV/ FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN LATER THIS MORNING...HELPING
TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSRA TOWARD MIDDAY. HRRR TAKES THIS
ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO MS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE MCV ON KSGF
RADAR.
TIMING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TSRA COMPLEXES CAN BE CHALLENGING. WITH
THAT SAID...06Z NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER TSRA COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE MIDSOUTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY...AFFECTING JBR AND POSSIBLY
THE OUTBOUND MEM CARGO PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
320 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
WORKING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY ABOUT TO REACH THE CAPITAL
REGION. THESE WERE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ONE OF THE STORMS WAS MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT WORKED THROUGH
JOHNSTOWN KNOCKING A FEW TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN THAT TOWN.
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 80-85 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND FRONT WORK
THROUGH...MID TO UPPER 70S MOST OTHER PLACES.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.
A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.
ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.
THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.
THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.
A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.
ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.
THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.
TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.
CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.
ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.
FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)...
EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. FOR THURSDAY...ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEING COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL LEVELS TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BRINGING
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND POPS WILL BE 30% OR LESS.
ANSORGE
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH SOME CONVECTION ERUPTING
ON GULF BREEZE ADVANCEMENT IN MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WENT CLOSE TO
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE TO TIME LIKELY CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS AT TERMINALS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR 2-3 HOUR
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...PRIMARILY WITH THE EARLIER ONSET CELLS...THOUGH OTHERS MAY
PULSE TO THESE LEVELS WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z.
24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
THE EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. WAVES HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2
FEET WITH 3 FEET OCCURRING AT TIMES.
ANSORGE
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 10
BTR 73 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 75 92 75 92 / 20 10 10 10
MSY 75 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 76 90 77 90 / 20 20 10 10
PQL 75 90 75 91 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION...
...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH SOME CONVECTION ERUPTING
ON GULF BREEZE ADVANCEMENT IN MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. WENT CLOSE TO
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE TO TIME LIKELY CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS AT TERMINALS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR 2-3 HOUR
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...PRIMARILY WITH THE EARLIER ONSET CELLS...THOUGH OTHERS MAY
PULSE TO THESE LEVELS WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE BREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. 24/RR
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GREAT LKS BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG/DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG AXIS APRCHG FM THE NW IS BRINGING A
MOSUNNY DAY TO MOST OF UPR MI. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLDS OVER
THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB...
BUT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DRY ADVCTN IS TENDING TO
DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV
DIVING SEWD THRU MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF CLD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIFTING A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z
YPL RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LO TEMPS TNGT AND THEN
SHOWER CHCS ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW.
TNGT...THE EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH THE DRY HI PRES OVHD...BUT MODELS
SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVING NW TO
SE TNGT. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NW AND TENDING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...SUSPECT ANY
ACCOMANYING SHOWERS WL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR ISLE ROYALE...
WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE VIBRANT H85 THETA E ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE
FADING DEEP LYR FORCING. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR E/SCENTRAL...WHERE THE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST AND SFC HI
PRES AXIS WL BE OVHD NEAR 12Z THU.
THU...SHRTWV RDG AXIS TRAILING THE WEAKENING SHRTWV IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN...ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHRTWV RDG WL LIMIT POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA CLOSER TO AXIS
OF HIER H85 THETA E AND WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
WL APRCH LATE. DESPITE THE BKN CLDS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 13-
14C OVER THE W AT 00Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXTENDED PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI...FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA MOVING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS SHOW NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SE FM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS INDICATE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO WELL AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH
OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
PASSAGE OF TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON
FCST DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS ECMWF AND GEM-NH INDICATE MLCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE THE NAM SHOWS INLAND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITHOUT REALLY A
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION...SUSPECT NAM AND GFS SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ARE OVERDONE THUS LEADING TO INFLATED
INSTABILITY VALUES. GIVEN PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO TRUST LOWER GEM-NH
AND ECMWF VALUES MORE. NEVERTHELESS WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF
SCENARIOS...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZES FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING ESEPCIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOWER CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING FRI EVENING CONVECTION
ENDS WITH EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS MODELS
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NRN PLAINS. LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MININAL AND
CONFINED TO WI BORDER COUNTIES IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL AS MID-LVLS OFF
FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY 500-1000 J/KG BUT THAT`S ONLY BECAUSE FCST DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AGAIN THESE DEWPOINTS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN
PATTERN WITH NO REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MID-LVL RDGG AND LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FROPA AS DEPICTED BY MODELS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FCST PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POP FCST. MOST OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST LATE MON EVENING OR
EARLY OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SO EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO END
BY THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FM THE PLAINS. SOME OF MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTED ANY PCPN. TUESDAY COULD BE CHILLY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND PASSAGE OF 8H THERMAL TROUGH (WITH TEMPS 6-8C)
EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
RETURN SSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RDG BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
THERE WL SCT-BKN MID CLDS AFTER THIS EVNG THRU THU AHEAD OF AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE...BUT THE LLVLS WL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
LOWER CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MILD SUMMER WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM ON SATURDAY ALONG U.S.-10 AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DEALING
WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
INTO MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS VS. THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN
PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
ACROSS THE NW WHERE THE COOLER AIR OFF OF THE LAKE IS NOT ALLOWING
THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW FOR THE CLEARING LINE
ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE THROUGH THERE.
AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN ALMOST
OVERHEAD BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN RIDGE AND WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE BEING BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
I AM LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NEAR
ROUTE 10 WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH IS THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. I
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
AN ISSUE THOUGH.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS A REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK
THAT FORCES MOST OF THE JET ENERGY OVER THE TOP WITH MEANS IT HAS TO
GO THROUGH THE ARCTIC TO GET HERE. THAT RESULTS IN A STRONGLY
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT CREATES A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THESE SYSTEM AND THAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A REX BLOCK...I COULD SEE SLOWING DOWN EVEN MORE THAT
WE ARE NOW SHOWING. IN ANY EVENT THIS WILL BE POLAR AIR MIXING WITH
TROPICAL AIR...WHEN THIS DOES FINALLY HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
STORMS.
A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND NUDGES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ON THAT
WEAK FRONT NEAR ROUTE 10 SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS
THERE.
THE 500 HEIGHTS...1000/850 THICKNESS TOOLS...1000/925 MB THICKNESS
TOOLS ALL TELL ME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S THIS WEEKEND...IF
NOT WARMER. I INCREASED THE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREE SAT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.
THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
WE WILL BE TAKING DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE COME
DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.
IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE WIND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KNOTS MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.
THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.
CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.
SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.
THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.
THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MN PORTION OF THE AREA.
SOME CHANCE OF FOG FORMING INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD ANY OF THIS WOULD BE
SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT. MID CLOUDS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EXITING TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LOOKS DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST ONCE
AGAIN. WILL KEEP WESTERN TAFS DRY FOR NOW...AND LOWER CEILINGS A
BIT BUT REMAIN VFR. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AOB 10KTS DURING
THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR WEST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CHANGES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
Tonight:
Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.
Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.
Thursday - Friday:
The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.
4th of July Weekend:
Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.
Monday - Wednesday:
The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A frontal boundary extends east from north central KS through west
central MO, bisecting the KC Metro with KMCI north of the front. This
boundary will sink slowly south through this evening. Still expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms to form late this afternoon
over east central KS through west central MO. Strong storms and heavy
rains possible. This activity is expected to congeal into a complex
of storms that tracks southeast into central MO tonight. KSTJ could
remain dry through the forecast. The rain threat will end from north
to south late this evening with MVFR ceilings overspreading the
region.
Operational and short range models fog but temperature/dewpoint
spread looks too large to support it. Will leave out of the terminals
for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
038>040-044>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
115 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.
AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.
POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.
SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. MODELS FOCUS MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEB AND DID INCLUDE A PROB GROUP IN THE KLBF TAF. LESS
CONFIDENCE IMPACT AT KVTN SO HAVE VCTS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT. SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL DEPICT INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SO KEPT
MENTION OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG WERE IMPROVING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING
LOW VISIBILITIES AT CROSBY ARE LIKELY VERY LOCALIZED AND WILL BE
ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT.
OTHERWISE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT
KEPT THE SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES AND AN APPROACHING JET STREAK TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
TRIMMED POPS A BIT AND INCREASED WHERE RADAR INDICATES
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
FOGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THESE
AREAS...AS HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA...FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT JET STREAM LEVEL...A 70 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE.
THIS ORIENTATION SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION...FURTHER PROMOTING CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST SURFACE FEATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...SO MAGNITUDE OF COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
WEST. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SAID ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STALLED SFC TROUGH. WE THEN TREND
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY
NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
DURING THE DAY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHEN AND WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED TOGETHER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO FAR
NORTHWEST NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SMOKE NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS IN PAST DAYS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER A BIT MORE. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS. NEAREST ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN STILL IN N CENTRAL MT SO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS. TRIMMED
BACK POPS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
.AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRIGGERING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT5:15PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SEVERE EXTENT MAY BE
LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES DECLINE DIURNALLY AS PRECIP. MOVES INTO HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR. HRRR GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG AS IT HAS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN NOW OBSERVED...BUT THE BASIC TREND OF ESE
MOVEMENT AND DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER 10PM SEEMS REASONABLE...AND
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER CAMS. LATEST NEAR TERM POPS REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TREND THROUGH 6Z.
AT 215 PM...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS AT THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT. CAPES
OVER EASTERN TN ARE IN EXCESS OF 2000J SO IT IS MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A WATCH IN PLACE ABUTTING OUR WESTERN NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD
INTO OUR NE GA...WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOME OF OUR NC MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY <1000J OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE AROUND 60...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR THERE. I HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 23Z AND MOVING EASTWARD
AFTERWARDS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NC BORDER COUNTIES AND THEN LIKELY
AS FAR EAST AS I-26. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THU IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/QPF. NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTH GA/SE TN LATE TONIGHT APPARENTLY USING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM TODAY`S MCS AS A TRIGGER. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ENHANCED QPF. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE NAM AND
INCREASE POPS LATE TONIGHT WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOOKING SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HENCE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ON THU. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WIND AND
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEKS...INVERTED-V BELOW H8...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC POPS EAST.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND EARLY ONSET OF
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ON SAT...4TH OF JULY...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE VIRGINAS. BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS
WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATX REGION TO NORTHERN MS/AL BY SUNRISE SAT.
12Z NAM AND ECMWF ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE
CONVECTION 12Z SAT. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE CONVECTION
EAST...REACHING THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER WITH 30 TO 40 POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS TO
THE U80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AMID
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THOUGH A LACK OF DISCERNIBLE UPPER FORCING OVER THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SHOULD KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. POPS WILL THEREFORE
BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL STILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER HIGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SAME TIME...THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST IN THE TIMING OF SOME OF THESE
FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOURCES OF WEAK FORCING ABOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THEREFORE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. PROFILES ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AND THOUGH NO DAY STANDS OUT AS HAVING ESPECIALLY HIGH
QPF...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WHOLE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE PERIOD COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILES AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LACK OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT TENDENCIES LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS STAYING NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE HELD ONTO A
TEMPO TSRA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN DEFERENCE TO PERSISTENT HRRR
FORECAST OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CAPE GRADIENT ALONG I-77
CORRIDOR. ALSO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN WILL REACH WESTERNNC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...SOME SHRA MY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD CIRCA MIDNIGHT
OR SO. GENERALLY VFR. COULD SEE SOME MVFR THU AM...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...MAIN CONCERNC ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. LOOKS LIKE THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN WILL REACH WESTERN NC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TEMPO
TSRA AT KAND...KGMU...KGSP AND KAVL. OTHERSISE...JUST SOME WIDELY
SCT TSRA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING TO MENTION
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 85% MED 76%
KAVL HIGH 98% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KHKY HIGH 85% MED 70% HIGH 100% MED 68%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 85% MED 78%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 85% MED 78%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1230 PM...RADAR IS STILL QUITE WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RETURNS
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIP FROM WEAKENING MCS IS ENTERING
CENTRAL TN. HOWEVER...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO STILL
EVIDENT AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE TRACK WILL BRING IT
INTO THE SW/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BASED ON 12Z MODELS AND HRRR TRENDS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL INDEED REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE SEVERE IN NATURE. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO
CATEGORICAL/NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN ALLOW PRECIP TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY ETC. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS EASTWARD
TO ABOUT I-26 AND THEN ALLOW TO DISSIPATE. WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP
LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS MAY MAKE A RUN AT MOUNTAINS.
DECREASED INSOLATION DUE TO THE SMOKE IS KEEPING A LID ON TEMPS
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
CONSSHORT.
AT 925 AM...ADJUSTED PRIMARILY THE POP AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY.
QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IS APPARENT ON THE VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PROBABLY AP AROUND 12KFT OR SO.
NOTHING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME SCT CELLS
SHOWING UP ON THE MRX RADAR OVER EASTERN TN. THOSE CELLS WERE MOVING
EAST AND SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE THERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A VORT LOBE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 06Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR BRING THE REMNANTS
OF THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER MO ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS NOT BUYING INTO THAT ANTICIPATING IT WILL DISSIPATE AND
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOWS THAT PERHAPS WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING IN TN. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE WHEN 12Z DATA ARRIVES.
1000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.
AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...JULY KICKS OFF WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
PATTER FEATURING AND EASTERN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE. ONE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE TROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER
DIVES INTO IT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY..FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
ONE THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL TO OUR NORTH
TODAY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR EAST. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...HOWEVER SHEAR
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED...AND MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. STEERING FLOW WILL
KEEPS CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BLUE
RIDGE...LIMITING UPLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF FLATTENING OUT TO OUR WEST AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM LIFTING NE WHILE NUMEROUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STREAM ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A BROAD PLUME OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LEE TROFFING EXPECTED TO SET UP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
POPS STEADILY RAMP UP THRU THE DAY/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
CATEGORICAL VALUES CARRIED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION AND
LIKELY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. SPC STILL HAS OUR CWFA IN THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NOW INCLUDING OUR
WESTERN CORNER...AS OF THEIR MOST RECENT UPDATE THIS MORNING.
MODEL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SOME DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
BOTH THURS AND FRI. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE FCST
AREA WELL INTO FRI AS A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FRI
MORNING. THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWFA LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER
LEE TROF DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. PW VALUES
REMAIN HIGH THRU MOST OF THE SHORT TERM...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY AND START OUT JUST BELOW CLIMO ON
THURS. THEY WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND END
UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS
OUT OVER THE SE REGION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVES ON SAT AND INTO SUN WITH A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE SUN/EARLY MON. AFTER THIS FEATURE
LIFTS TO THE NE ON MON...HEIGHTS REBOUND AGAIN AND THE PATTERN
REMAINS FLAT THRU DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING SWLY LOW LVL FLOW.
THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK LEE TROFFING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT LIVED MESO LOWS ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST PW VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT DIURNAL HIGH END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION FOR
SAT AND SUN. TEMPS START OUT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY ON SAT AND WARM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TOPPING OUT
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR CIGS DEVELOPED AT AIRFIELD IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SURROUNDING SITES. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE FORECASTS A VERY SHORT
DURATION LIFR EVENT. HENCE...WILL DISSIPATE LOW CIGS BY 14Z.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK PROMISING FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS HEATING PROMOTES INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VSBY AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT WITH MVFR VSBY AT MOST SURROUNDING SITES.
ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS DAYBREAK MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KAND...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
MARGINAL. A LIFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL GIVEN THE CURRENT FEW002
THERE. CIGS LOOK LESS LIKELY AT FOOTHILL SITES AS NO CLOUD COVER IS
OBSERVED THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOW VFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS
GOING IN EARNEST...THAT TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATE. WINDS WILL FAVOR
THE SW...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP VALLEY FORM THE NW. ON THURSDAY MORNING GUIDANCE HITS
KAVL WITH DAYBREAK MVFR FOG...AND KHKY WITH LOW VFR FOG.
OUTLOOK...A UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
PASSING STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF SE WY AT THIS TIME
WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING IMPULSE IN THE UPPER FLOW.
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE IMPULSE MOVES BY AND HAVE
TAILORED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE CWA UNDER A NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT LEAVING A MODEST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING/MOVING OUT. SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SLIPS EASTWARD
FRIDAY REDUCING THE UPSLOPE FLOW BUT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY MORE OVER SE WY HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PRECIP CHANCES JUST
ABOUT EVERYDAY.
STARTING OFF SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A 591DM HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA. PERHAPS OUR DRIEST
DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OUT
WEST.
STRONG AND ABNORMALLY COOL SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF ALBERTA PROVINCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM +20C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...TO +12C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY +8C MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR ON SOLUTIONS FOR
THE FRONT TIMING. PRETTY STRONG 850MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OUT
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD BE SEEING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS ECMWF 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN LIKELY MONDAY WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDFLOW. FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP CONVECTIVE...BUT IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO SWITCH TO STRATIFORM IN
LATER FORECASTS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE MONSOON SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY ON INTO THE WEEK. NOT REALLY LIKING THE
SETUP OF THE 500MB HIGH THOUGH...ITS NOT IN THE RIGHT LOCATION FOR
US TO GET WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ON EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE BEFORE UPPING POPS FURTHER.
ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN
WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE OUR NEXT SEVERE CONVECTIVE
EVENT AS 70KT JET MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE LFQ DYNAMICS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING ON CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE ALL NIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR PANHANDLE LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE. EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
NO CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FUELS GREEN AND
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. THERE WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS BUT DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED.
WETTING RAINS LIKELY WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1102 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION DEPICTED THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE AZ/NV BORDER. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CENTER. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE PRODUCED ISOLATED TSTORM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WAS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHWEST
ALBERTA. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TREK SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN NE WILL
ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST WY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM WESTERN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE LARAMIE RANGE LATER TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE FOCI FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TSTORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE PROGGING
35-45 KT SHEAR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WITH 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SBCAPE VALUES ARE NOT THAT HIGH...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ORGANIZED
TSTORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY. IT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER JET PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY FROM TODAY`S HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO HEAD EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAP THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED TSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED NR THE 4-CORNERS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND MAINTAIN SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE 4TH. THESE
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE THE NRN STREAM JET AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL RACE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
SUNDAY`S FROPA TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS INSTABILITY
WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP MODE BECOMES STRATIFORMED IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPING POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS UNLESS ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS SUSTAINABLE. FOR NOW...LOOKS TO BE A LOW CLOUD/FOG ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EVENT. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT HAVE
STEERED RAIN CHANCES UP ACCORDINGLY. THE ERN PLAINS TURN MORE
STABLE ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE INSTABILITY POOL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE STALLED FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. SO CONFINED THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS RRQ OF THE
NRN STREAM JET REMAINS OVR THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THRU MONDAY...WITH 70S EXPECTED
MOST LOCALES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TUE-WED AS THE STALLED
FRONT WASHES OUT AND WAA RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING ON CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE ALL NIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR PANHANDLE LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE. EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT STALLED
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING COMBINED WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO
THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL TO 10 TO
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ