Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/30/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
815 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/NAM GUIDANCE WE`RE MAKING A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE ZONES TODAY. ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. IN FACT HRRR SHOWS AN ARCING 45KT+ OUTFLOW
MARCHING NORTHWARD THROUGH CHURCHILL-PERSHING COUNTIES 5-8 PM. WHILE
THIS EXACT FEATURE MAY NOT MATERIALIZE IT IS INDICATIVE OF A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST, SO WE`RE UPDATING TO
INCLUDE THAT ALONG WITH INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE FOR LOL/NFL AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY WE DESTABILIZE, EVOLUTION OF STORMS TODAY FOR THE SIERRA, NE
CA, AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION IS QUITE HIGH RIGHT NOW. SO ASSUMING WE
DON`T CLOUD OVER TOO QUICKLY, SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER NOON WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. CS
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
TOMORROW. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT WAVE STARTING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WERE A HEALTHY MIX OF
WET/DRY WITH SOME LOCATIONS MEASURING 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER WHILE
OTHER STORMS MOVED TOO QUICKLY TO PUT DOWN MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN.
SATURDAY`S STORMS DID PROVIDE QUITE THE LIGHTNING SHOW WITH OVER
25 NEW FIRE STARTS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1" FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. DURING
PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH > 1" PWAT VALUES STORMS DEVELOPED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND, STORMS SHOULD GET SOME EXTRA
HELP FROM FORCING ALOFT AS A PV WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING
AROUND 21-0Z (WITH THE PV WAVE PASSAGE) STARTING IN MONO/ALPINE
COUNTIES THEN MOVING QUICKLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE WITH TODAY`S STORMS LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY`S STORMS, SO THE TREND
APPEARS TO BE TOWARDS MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS
WILL BE MOVING, THEY WILL LIKELY BE WET WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON FIRE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL DEBRIS
FLOWS, ESPECIALLY SINCE A COUPLE OF MINOR ROCK SLIDES WERE REPORTED
YESTERDAY.
ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DRY
AIR INUNDATES AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THOSE AREAS. MOISTURE CONTENT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL REMAIN HIGHER, AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE FOR MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH A RESURGENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE. LEFT OUT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR NOW, BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF MOISTURE FOR
TUESDAY. WEISHAHN
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEWER CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE
MAIN CHANGES TO MAKE IT WARMER NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/EC DIFFER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE HIGH CENTER OVER
NEVADA WHILE THE EC MOVES IT NEAR THE CA/NV/OR TRIPLE POINT. IN
ADDITION, THE ORIENTATION IS DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS MORE NW-SE AND
THE EC E-W. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, I LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS
WITH MOST CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95 NOT
SPREADING NORTH UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS CONVECTION TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY
WHILE THE EC SUGGESTS DRY DAYS WED-THU WITH MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT
LEAST ON 700 TEMPS, WARMED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPS
NEAR/ABOVE 100 IN WRN NV VALLEYS WHILE THE SIERRA VALLEYS HOVER
NEAR 90. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, BUT
THIS CAN CHANGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS RENO/LOVELOCK/TRUCKEE AS
WARM AS 106/110/93 RESPECTIVELY FOR THURSDAY. SINCE THE GUIDANCE
RAN A LITTLE WARM FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS WHEN WE WERE 5 DAYS OUT,
DID NOT GO THAT WARM, BUT 103/107/92 IS STILL PLENTY HOT. OF
COURSE, IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 DEGREE 700 TEMPS, IT
COULD BE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AND APPROACH ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGHS. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA 20-03Z. MAIN THREATS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS AND SOME HAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED, KTVL/KTRK/KMMH THE
HIGHEST. SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE SFC WND GUSTS TO 50-60 KTS (5 PCT AT
ANY ONE POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN
FIRE WEATHER...
12Z RAOB IS IN AND IT IS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION, WITH STRONGER FORCING EXPECTED TODAY AND MORE MOISTURE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THE STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND WETTER
TODAY. STRONG OUTFLOWS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH WETTER STORMS DRY STRIKES
OUTSIDE THE RAIN CORES SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS TODAY. IN ADDITION,
MORE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. A FEW STARTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE WETTER STORMS WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AND NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH HEAVIER RAINS EXPECTED, LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH IT ALONG WITH THE IMET ASSIGNED TO THE INCIDENT.
WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDSWEPT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS
AND/OR DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DOWN TREE
LIMBS/BRANCHES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER
WEATHER ARRIVES TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WED. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI AND/OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING ***
7 AM UPDATE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAIN RAIN BAND AT 645 AM WAS FROM ABOUT WORCESTER EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHEAST MA AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO THE
GREATER BOSTON AREA. THIS BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL ESE JET OF UP TO 55 KT AT 3-4KFT PER OUR VAD WIND PROFILE.
THIS JET AND RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING WITH LESS INTENSE LOW TOP SHOWERS TO FOLLOW FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY AVERAGED 0.20 TO 0.40
INCHES WITH AN OCCASIONAL 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES PER DUAL POL AND
OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL REDUCE FLOOD THREAT. 06Z NAM/GFS AND
LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP HAVE LOWERED QPF THRU 18Z A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WALL OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY HAVE
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARD...IE 2" PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HEAVY/STEADY RAIN ENDS 9 AM TO 11 AM FROM SOUTH OF NORTH BUT MAY
LINGER ACROSS CAPE ANN/ESSEX COUNTY UNTIL MIDDAY OR SO.
...STRONG WINDS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONGEST PRES FALLS ARE CENTERED
OVER NANTUCKET AT 5 MBS OVER THE PAST 3 HRS. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE STRONG EAST WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH. EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO AID IN TRANSFER OF
STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH WIND THREAT DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MIDDAY...EXCEPT CAPE ANN WHERE STRONG WINDS
MAY LINGER UNTIL 1 PM OR 2 PM. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY CONFIGURATION
HANDLES THIS THINKING SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
OVERALL THOUGHT PROCESS WITH THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...
THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS DEVELOPED A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH JERSEY AS OF 4 AM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH A
STRONG LLJ AND TROPICAL CONNECTIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS TO GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH ACROSS SOUTH
COAST.
RAINFALL/FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BERKS APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH MANY SITES RECEIVING CLOSE TO AN INCH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO PINPOINT THIS REGION AS ONE OF THE QPF MAXS SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH.
LOOKING DOWNSTREAM APPEARS THAT PRECIP IS MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS
OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LLJ AND VERY HIGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. IN FACT OFF OF SPC MESO PAGE...PWAT VALUES ARE REACHING
OVER 2 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ELEVATION CONVECTION...COULD SEE A SECONDARY MAX OVER THE 95
CORRIDOR INTO NE MASS. HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PINPOINT THIS REGION STILL...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. CURIOUS IF IT WILL ROB
THE REGION FROM SOME OF THE ACTION. HOWEVER WITH A FIREHOSE OF
MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE EAST...AND UPWARD FLOW OVER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LI...ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT...IT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH. ANTICIPATE
STEADIER RAIN TO TURN MORE SHOWERY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH THE DRY SLOT ALOFT...AND AN INVERSION TRAPPING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT STRATUS/FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON LASTING WELL UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DEF NOT AN IDEAL DAY
FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
WINDS...
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. MANY SITES ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH COAST ARE ALREADY RECEIVING GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45
MPH. THE OKX WFO HAD REPORTED SOME TREE DAMAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 33 KTS. BELIEVE SATURATED
GROUND AND FULLY LEAVED TREES AIDED IN THE DAMAGE REPORT. ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP...ANTICIPATE MORE REPORTS TO FILTER INTO THE OFFICE AS
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 35-50 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE JET WITH 925 MB
INCREASING BETWEEN 50-60 KTS AROUND 12Z. THIS JET MAY MIX DOWN
WITHIN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE 10
AM FOR RHODE ISLAND AND CAPE/ISLANDS...CLOSER TIL NOON FOR THE
NORTHEAST AREAS.
CONVECTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH EACH RUN.
THEREFORE HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IF SNE WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE RAW WITH HIGHS
REACHING IN THE LOW 60S...WITH 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE WARM
FRONT MAY SIT. WE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF COOLEST MAX
TEMPERATURE. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUND EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...THE BEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH SURF...
GIVEN SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 7 AND 13 FEET ACROSS OUR OUTER-
WATERS...CONTINUES THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
FACING OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF MA/RI. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY FAR FROM AN IDEAL BEACH DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE WELL OVER BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER NIGHT WITH THE
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING THIS PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT
RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER WESTERN CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
MAINTAINS A DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN POSITION
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER
DAY. IN BETWEEN MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THRU WED. THUS WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS TYPICAL SHORT COMINGS AT
THIS TIME RANGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS. THUS LEANED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLES HERE.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...
MONDAY...OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE IN ST LWRN RVR VLY EXITS INTO THE
MARITIMES WITH HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURRING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME MODELS GENERATING QPF THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
NEVERTHELESS A VERY NICE DAY.
TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OH
VLY. APPEARS WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE BUT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE CT RVR VLY AND WESTWARD INTO NY STATE. THUS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN DRY. S-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL
SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA SO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE U70S AND
L80S...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE REGION YIELDING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THAN TUE. GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ALL
SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE RISK OF A
FEW STRONG T-STORMS. WARM AND HUMID WITH RELIEF ARRIVING WED NIGHT
OR THU AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THU/FRI/SAT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DISPLAY LARGE SPREAD HERE SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLES FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SUGGEST DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH WED. THEN A RISK FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FRI
AND/OR SAT AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z OR 09Z TAFS. BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MA PIKE INTO
BOSTON METRO AREA. RAIN SLACKENS 9 AM TO 11 AM FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LIGHTER SHOWERS THEREAFTER. STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO 45 KT
EASE AFTER 15Z. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AS STEADY -RA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SITES COULD DROP TO IFR WITHIN ANY +RA.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ALONG THE
COASTLINES OF RA/MA.
AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS +SHRA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. E-SE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 30
TO 40 KNOTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. LLWS WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUS EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.
EMBEDDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.
RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY HANG TOUGH IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND DRIZZLE PATCHES BUT SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT
MAY OCCUR ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA AS THE REGION WARM
SECTORS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
INVERSION OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
2 SM FOG ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE. IMPROVEMENTS AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY.
TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY FOR RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOW RISK OF MVFR
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR LIKELY.
THU...TRENDING TOWARD VFR AND DRIER AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TIL SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS THIS
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH EASTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KNOTS. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER- WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 TO 13 FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM LEFTOVER LARGE SE
SWELLS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME SOUTH WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BECOME LIKELY AS WELL.
THURSDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH FRONT LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...MOST AREA RIVERS ARE AT THEIR NORMAL
SEASONAL LOW POINTS AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...ITS POSSIBLE FFG MAY BE EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS.
WIDESPREAD FFG VALUES ARE NEARLY 2.0 INCHES/1 HOUR...2.5 INCHES/3
HOUR...AND 3 INCHES/6 HOUR RATES. NORMALLY FLASHY BASINS/STREAMS
MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL AS FFG RATES WILL BE LOWER IN THESE LOCATIONS.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE 2 MAXIMUM IN QPF. ONE OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN
GET INVOLVED. THOSE ARE THE TWO AREAS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ005>007-013>024.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-
016-019>024.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ005>007-
013>021.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ002-008-009.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>008.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE STORM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND A LINGERING
SHOWER WILL BE AROUND FOR MONDAY MORNING...MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...A FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
KENX RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER ELEMENTS EMBEDDED THE RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL IS THE
RESULT OF STRONG WARM AID ADVECTION....WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 HPA PICKING UP PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS WESTERN UPSTATE NY. SO FAR...RAINFALL RATES HAVEN/T BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING RATES OF 0.10 OR LESS
PER HOUR /OCCASIONALLY A FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN 0.10 TO 0.25 PER
HOUR/. THIS RAINFALL DOESN/T APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...BUT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS/LOW
VISIBILITY WILL MAKE FOR LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
EARLY...BUT WILL WAIT A BIT TO SEE HOW RAINFALL EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGEST RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HEAVIER BANDS
AT TIMES IN SPOTS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CAN SEE UP TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH MID MORNING OR
SO...WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENTS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY...EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT MENTION A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER UNTIL
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
E-SE WINDS OVER THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN GREENS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING...AND THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OR SO. A FEW GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IS WHY THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING ON...POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
RANGE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END.
HOWEVER...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
NORTHWARD...SO GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS
(EVEN SOME DRIZZLE) WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY
NOT HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MILDER AIR THE
LONGEST...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS
THERE WILL BE IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AT FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATER ON DUE TO POSSIBLE SURFACE HEATING
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE TSTM. THIS
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES FURTHER NORTHEAST LIMITING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. SO A GRADUAL PULL BACK IN THE
POPS/WX IS FORECAST INCLUDING SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SINUSOIDAL WAVES WILL DICTATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN OSCILLATING PATTERN
BETWEEN TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...27/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR CLEVELAND...SOME GOOD
DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR OUR REGION. A CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT ALSO BE RULED OUT AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE 6.0 C/KM IS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MODEL MEMBERS. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IN QUESTION
WITH NO CONSISTENT MEMBERS BETWEEN THE PROBABILISTIC MODEL RUNS. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NY STATE AS
WE GO INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED MORE DEFINED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....AS WE GO TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS OUR REGION
IS IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80 KT JET WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOME 27/12Z MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY BY FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING SOME CONTINUED
TRANQUIL WEATHER. SOME 12Z MODEL DATA IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
EVENING UNDER WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GOOD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE OTHER MODEL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRING MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY ERODING AS CIGS AND RAIN ARE COMING DOWN
WITH SOLID MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE...LLWS POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO AS CROSS SECTIONS AND VWPS ALL SUGGEST 35KTS OR
GREATER AROUND 2K FEET. LOW CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY
WITH AN INCREASE CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A RATHER DAMP DAY WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KPSF/KGFL.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD A EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH MORE SURFACE
GUSTS AT KPSF OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
THE NAM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE. 12Z RUN HAD ONE TO 3.5 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE 18Z NAM RUN HAS NOW
REDUCED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS. GETTING A GOOD LOOK ON RADAR NOW AT THE AREA OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION. BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADARS AND PCPN OBSERVATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR THE REGION LOOKS GOOD...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
FLOODING...BUT WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SINCE RAIN HASN/T
EVEN STARTED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAINFALL
INTENSITY MAY PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY.
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ONLY ABOUT A HALF DOZEN FORECAST POINTS
RISING TO ABOVE THE CAUTION STAGE. 5 OF THE 6 POINTS ARE SLOW
RESPONDING RESERVOIR/LAKE LEVEL FORECASTS. THE OTHER IS RIVERBANK
WHICH IS ALSO USUALLY VERY SLOW TO RESPOND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 78 92 / 20 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 40
MIAMI 77 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 78 92 / 30 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 40
MIAMI 77 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW
NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SANDERSVILLE LINE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUGGEST THE FRONT STILL HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO CONTINUE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAP AND LAP DATA SHOW THE GREATER
INSTABILITIES NOW SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON... WITH 800-1200 CAPE
NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT BENNING TO PERRY TO DUBLIN LINE... AND
THIS AREA IS WHERE REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS STILL
DEVELOPING. THINKING THIS AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT EVEN THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE FRONT.
SUSPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAYBE
NEAR OR SOUTH OF A CORDELE TO SWAINSBORO LINE. WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THIS AREA FOR NOW... AND MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT TERM ON TAP BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL
SINK INTO CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COLUMBUS AND
MACON AREAS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNRISE. DRY...COOLER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRINGING A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE HEAT OF THE LAST WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE
MINIMAL...AND ONLY ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THIS DRY
AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT LIBERAL FOR
THE ACTIVITY TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE ACTIVE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE STATE WILL WARM SLIGHTLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ENJOY TODAY!
31
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...OTHERWISE THEY
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SHORT WAVE...BUT BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT NORTH GEORGIA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH EACH
WAVE. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHER
POPS NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY NW TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL... WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8-10KTS WITH OCNL LOW
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING TO 3-5KTS THIS EVENING... THEN 7-
9KTS ON MON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 63 90 68 / 5 0 5 10
ATLANTA 84 67 88 71 / 10 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 56 82 65 / 5 5 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 84 60 89 68 / 5 5 5 20
COLUMBUS 87 68 91 72 / 20 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 84 64 87 69 / 5 5 5 20
MACON 88 66 91 68 / 40 5 5 5
ROME 85 60 89 69 / 5 5 10 20
PEACHTREE CITY 85 63 89 66 / 10 0 5 10
VIDALIA 89 70 91 71 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1154 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW
NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SANDERSVILLE LINE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUGGEST THE FRONT STILL HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO CONTINUE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAP AND LAP DATA SHOW THE GREATER
INSTABILITIES NOW SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON... WITH 800-1200 CAPE
NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT BENNING TO PERRY TO DUBLIN LINE... AND
THIS AREA IS WHERE REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS STILL
DEVELOPING. THINKING THIS AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT EVEN THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE FRONT.
SUSPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAYBE
NEAR OR SOUTH OF A CORDELE TO SWAINSBORO LINE. WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THIS AREA FOR NOW... AND MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT TERM ON TAP BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL
SINK INTO CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COLUMBUS AND
MACON AREAS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNRISE. DRY...COOLER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRINGING A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE HEAT OF THE LAST WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE
MINIMAL...AND ONLY ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THIS DRY
AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT LIBERAL FOR
THE ACTIVITY TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE ACTIVE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE STATE WILL WARM SLIGHTLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ENJOY TODAY!
31
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...OTHERWISE THEY
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SHORT WAVE...BUT BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT NORTH GEORGIA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH EACH
WAVE. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHER
POPS NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY LATE MORNING.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 63 90 68 / 5 0 5 10
ATLANTA 84 67 88 71 / 10 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 56 82 65 / 5 5 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 84 60 89 68 / 5 5 5 20
COLUMBUS 87 68 91 72 / 20 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 84 64 87 69 / 5 5 5 20
MACON 88 66 91 68 / 40 5 5 5
ROME 85 60 89 69 / 5 5 10 20
PEACHTREE CITY 85 63 89 66 / 10 0 5 10
VIDALIA 89 70 91 71 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z STILL BACK IN THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH GEORGIA. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS OR
COASTAL PLAIN. RADAR INDICATING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CSRA. HRRR SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING..MAY ENHANCE
SHOWERS BUT OVERALL LIFT APPEARS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH FOCUS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN AND MID LEVEL CAPPING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOS GUIDANCE MEAN TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED...TEMPERATURES WARMER
DURING THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AT NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...90 TO 95 THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN LIGHT
SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
AGS/DNL WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
OVERTAKING THE TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
313 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z STILL BACK IN THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH GEORGIA. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS OR
COASTAL PLAIN. RADAR INDICATING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CSRA. HRRR SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING..MAY ENHANCE
SHOWERS BUT OVERALL LIFT APPEARS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH FOCUS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN AND MID LEVEL CAPPING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOS GUIDANCE MEAN TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED...TEMPERATURES WARMER
DURING THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AT NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...90 TO 95 THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STRATUS.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME LOW CIGS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 10Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS ENTERING THE REGION. COVERAGE OF REMAINING SHOWERS IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION. FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE TAF SITES AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
954 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING FROM BOISE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL/.
THIS IS LINE WITH THE FORECAST RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS /PW
0.89 INCHES THIS MORNING/ AND ALREADY SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S-CENTRAL AND FAR SE OREGON THIS MORNING. SEE
NO CHANGE IN WHERE THE HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...
WHICH WILL FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SPEEDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OUTFLOW
WINDS COULD BLOW INTO LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT
GUSTS TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST 10-20KT AROUND 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RECORD HEAT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 110 IN PARTS OF
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. MOST OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS SITES WILL
ACHIEVE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT. MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN
MONSOON-LIKE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...MAINLY IMPACTING SE OREGON
BUT ALSO SW IDAHO. MUCH LIKE YDAY...THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
PREVENT RECORD HIGHS FROM BEING SET IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
OR MOVE IN TO PREVENT THE RECORD HEAT. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...THROUGH 9 PM MDT TONIGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SCATTERED STORMS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...BUT WE DO NOT AGREE WITH ITS
SOLUTION. THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF HARNEY COUNTY IN THE
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. FINALLY...THE HRRR OUTPUT
INDICATES STRONG WINDS MOVING NORTH FROM NEAR THE NV BORDER DUE TO
STORM OUTFLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE
INDICATED BY THE HRRR IS OVERDONE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA AS OF 3
AM MDT...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGS SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD-SETTING HEAT. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY INTO OUR NRN ZONES
IN BOTH OREGON AND IDAHO...WITH BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MTNS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. THESE STORMS COULD AGAIN BRING GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES LESS HOT TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IDAHO
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NV/UT KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH SOLUTIONS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN EACH RUN. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST WITH A DRIER AND WARMER BIAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING ORZ064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING ORZ636-646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
318 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RECORD HEAT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 110 IN PARTS OF
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. MOST OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS SITES WILL
ACHIEVE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT. MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN
MONSOON-LIKE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...MAINLY IMPACTING SE OREGON
BUT ALSO SW IDAHO. MUCH LIKE YDAY...THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
PREVENT RECORD HIGHS FROM BEING SET IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
OR MOVE IN TO PREVENT THE RECORD HEAT. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...THROUGH 9 PM MDT TONIGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SCATTERED STORMS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...BUT WE DO NOT AGREE WITH ITS
SOLUTION. THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF HARNEY COUNTY IN THE
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. FINALLY...THE HRRR OUTPUT
INDICATES STRONG WINDS MOVING NORTH FROM NEAR THE NV BORDER DUE TO
STORM OUTFLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE
INDICATED BY THE HRRR IS OVERDONE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA AS OF 3
AM MDT...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGS SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD-SETTING HEAT. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY INTO OUR NRN ZONES
IN BOTH OREGON AND IDAHO...WITH BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MTNS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. THESE STORMS COULD AGAIN BRING GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES LESS HOT TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IDAHO
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NV/UT KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH SOLUTIONS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN EACH RUN. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST WITH A DRIER AND WARMER BIAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND
IDAHO CENTRAL MTNS. VARIABLE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING ORZ064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING ORZ636-646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
854 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ADJUST FOR RADAR TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST
WI/EAST CENTRAL MN PER VAPOR IMAGERY. ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND WERE MAINLY LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR IN LASALLE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AT 845 PM.
THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO PULSE AND EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES ALONG EASTERN GRADIENT OF A REGION OF 25-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING IN THESE CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LIVINGSTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WERE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
WELL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POOL MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED PER
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT THIS...WITH
EROSION OF MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA. STILL... THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
224 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE PRIMARY WAVE
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE WHILE NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SE MN WAVE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW LONG ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE CWA WILL SEE. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID
EVENING THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SE MN WAVE MAY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO IT MAY FADE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER SO WILL WORK A BAND OF LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN EXIT THEM TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE ARRIVAL OF POPS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOW
SO MAY NEED TO SPEED THE PROGRESSION UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO GOING INTO
EARLY EVENING SO STAY TUNED. WOULD EXPECT ANY WIND THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES LEAVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE BUT WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A COHERENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH BROADER ASCENT IN PLACE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE BRINGING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF IT. A SECONDARY COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATER...
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKEFRONT
AREAS COOLING LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT WHATEVER LINGERING DEVELOPMENT TO DIMINISH.
DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH
THIS COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES...DID LOWER LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT FOR FURTHER PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO DID REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA OWING TO SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE MORE LIKELY TREND. ALSO LOWERED
SKY COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARER SKIES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BUT WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
FLOW...COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE DRIER TREND WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 50S AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S. WITH
STEERING FLOW KEEPING GENERAL MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 70S AND THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING INTO
FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE
DRY DAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES VARY BUT AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS APPEARING TO BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MOST
AREAS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF SHRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
* LAKE BREEZE/SHIFT TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL LATE THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHEAST WI AND
THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.
ADJUSTED TIMING ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING
OVERALL COVERAGE. CMS
PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL WI
WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL ARRIVING INTO
NORTHERN IL. HOW MUCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT MAINTAINED
CURRENT SHOWER MENTION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE
EVENING.
A WEAK GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHICH WILL TEND TO FAVOR CALM THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE LIGHT WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE IN SPEED LATER TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE ANY PRECIP AREAS...SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW REGARDING SPECIFIC HEIGHTS SO
DIDN/T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW FOR SHRA OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
* LOW FOR SHRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR LAKE BREEZE/SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
LOW FOR TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
705 PM CDT
WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY. INCREASING SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE NEARSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
WINDOW OF 15 TO 25 KT WINDS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS COOLER
AIR WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. THESE CONCERNS ARE FOR THE NEARSHORE AS
WELL AND IF THE HIGHER SPEEDS AND THEN HIGHER WAVES DO
OCCUR...THEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO SPAN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK
WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
854 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
854 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ADJUST FOR RADAR TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST
WI/EAST CENTRAL MN PER VAPOR IMAGERY. ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND WERE MAINLY LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR IN LASALLE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AT 845 PM.
THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO PULSE AND EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES ALONG EASTERN GRADIENT OF A REGION OF 25-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING IN THESE CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LIVINGSTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WERE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
WELL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POOL MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED PER
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT THIS...WITH
EROSION OF MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA. STILL... THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
224 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE PRIMARY WAVE
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE WHILE NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SE MN WAVE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW LONG ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE CWA WILL SEE. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID
EVENING THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SE MN WAVE MAY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO IT MAY FADE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER SO WILL WORK A BAND OF LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN EXIT THEM TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE ARRIVAL OF POPS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOW
SO MAY NEED TO SPEED THE PROGRESSION UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO GOING INTO
EARLY EVENING SO STAY TUNED. WOULD EXPECT ANY WIND THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES LEAVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE BUT WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A COHERENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH BROADER ASCENT IN PLACE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE BRINGING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF IT. A SECONDARY COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATER...
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKEFRONT
AREAS COOLING LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT WHATEVER LINGERING DEVELOPMENT TO DIMINISH.
DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH
THIS COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES...DID LOWER LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT FOR FURTHER PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO DID REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA OWING TO SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE MORE LIKELY TREND. ALSO LOWERED
SKY COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARER SKIES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BUT WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
FLOW...COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE DRIER TREND WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 50S AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S. WITH
STEERING FLOW KEEPING GENERAL MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 70S AND THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING INTO
FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE
DRY DAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES VARY BUT AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS APPEARING TO BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MOST
AREAS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING.
* CHANCE OF SHRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
* LAKE BREEZE/SHIFT TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL WI
WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL ARRIVING INTO
NORTHERN IL. HOW MUCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT MAINTAINED
CURRENT SHOWER MENTION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE
EVENING.
A WEAK GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHICH WILL TEND TO FAVOR CALM THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE LIGHT WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE IN SPEED LATER TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST OFF THE LAKE
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE ANY PRECIP AREAS...SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW REGARDING SPECIFIC HEIGHTS SO
DIDN/T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW FOR SHRA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
* LOW FOR SHRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD...MEDIUM FOR SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LOW FOR TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
705 PM CDT
WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY. INCREASING SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE NEARSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
WINDOW OF 15 TO 25 KT WINDS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS COOLER
AIR WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. THESE CONCERNS ARE FOR THE NEARSHORE AS
WELL AND IF THE HIGHER SPEEDS AND THEN HIGHER WAVES DO
OCCUR...THEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO SPAN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK
WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NORTH BY 00Z
WITH FRONT HEADING TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BEST FORCING
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH HRRR AND
VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT BEST SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM NEAR MASON
CITY SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. CURRENT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OVER THE EAST THOUGH WITH
LACK OF SFC TRIGGER...LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...IF AT ALL...UNDER
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER OR OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CAN FIRE CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
THIS EVENING...WILL BE NARROWING POPS/WX OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE DIURNAL SUPPORT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...AM
EXPECTING A LESSENING OF COVERAGE AFT 02Z WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN FIRES
IMPACTING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THICKER LAYER OF SMOKE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER IOWA SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A BRILLIANT SUNSET FOR AREAS WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES WAS THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OTHER CONCERN WAS TEMPS AND HOW THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SMOKE PLUME FROM CANADA.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO CUT ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND SHOULD HOLD OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. PLUS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT IN DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK...MAYBE EVEN SHOVED FURTHER WEST BY THE SURFACE
HIGH...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THE SMOKE FROM CANADA
WILL AFFECT THE MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SINCE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THE
FIRES WILL CEASE. IF SMOKE IS STILL AROUND ON TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY
NEED TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS
MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE LOW POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING BETTER EAST OF THE AREA...SO
HAVE REMOVED MUCH OF THE MENTION IN ALL TAF SITES. STILL A SMALL
POSSIBILITY IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES...BUT LOOKING QUITE
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING MAINLY THIN OVERCAST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SMOKE IN THE HIGHER LEVELS.
WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME AND PICK UP A BIT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE
REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000
TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z.
SFC CONVERGENCE IS RATHER MEAGER ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES JUST
REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE SVR WORDING IN SOUTHEAST/EAST ZONES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THROUGH 00Z. LCL HEIGHTS
EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS
INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY STORMS FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF FUNNEL. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01-02Z. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. 4KM WRF ALSO SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MN MAY EXPAND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS
WELL. WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE CEDAR RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
MORNING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. IOWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND LESSENING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN
SO...THINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
SUCH OPPORTUNITY COME LATE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTLE IMPULSE PUSHES AN
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA DOWN ACROSS IOWA.
DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BROAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES...FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED DETAILS IN TIMING OF POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
EVEN AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILT
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY...BUT EVEN SO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED THOUGH NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...THE
STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE WEEK WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND A MODEST
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE GREATEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES SO POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP AND WE CAN REFINE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN THEN
POPS FOR PART OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS
WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT IN WAKE OF THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH
PASSAGE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW...PROVIDING
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SUNNY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER RIGHT AROUND
THE FOURTH OF JULY. OBVIOUSLY ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO GOOD WEATHER AROUND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WEAK LOW NEAR KDSM AT 17Z AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR KFRM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKING
NEARLY DUE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...THOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH SFC TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG I35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS INCREASING. SCT THUNDER SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM I35 EAST...NEAR TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL VORT AND SFC
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE IN QUESTION SO HAVE GENERALLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR
NOW...BY 15Z MONDAY MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL -SHRA OVER THE EAST
AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE HOLDS. LOW SPOTS NEAR 11Z MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHY 3-5SM BR AS WELL WITH MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER.
/REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ELSEWHERE...WITH NOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON
RADAR AND SOME SPOTTER REPORTS...THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE THE CEDAR RAPIDS
AREA AND ALSO OVER FAR SE IA AND NE MO. AT NOON...MSAS PRESSURE
FIELDS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IA WITH PRESSURE FALLS
OVER S CENTRAL INTO SE IA...INDICATING CONTINUED SE PROPAGATION AS
SUGGESTED BY 12Z MODELS.
WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE LOW/S
TRACK IN CENTRAL IA INTO N CENTRAL MO AND THE OVERLAPPING AXIS OF
BETTER SHEAR MOVING INTO THE SAME AREA...THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...THE ELEVATED STORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL MO WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A LIGHTNING RISK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
PROGRESSIVE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS AND LOWERED
MAXES SOME DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.
AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT CID AND
BRL...AND PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT MLI AND BRL. WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR IF NOT IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE TRENDS...BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PERIODS OF IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
724 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.
AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OR ENDING AFTER 05Z/29. SOUTH WINDS TODAY
THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
414 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.
AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE 13Z TO 15Z SUNDAY TIMING
OF THE INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TAKEN AN INITIAL STAB AT
HIGHLIGHTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGHER INTENSITY STORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW...KCID/KBRL LOOK MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING...MAINLY AT KBRL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
DECENT AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS STRONGER TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT WORK OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
TO START THE LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATES MOISTURE
LINGERS 950-900MB WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NE WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH AND NEARING
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL HIT UP
CLOUDS MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMOVED CHANCES OF FOG. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THERMAL TROUGH IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPPER LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN PWATS BLO 0.5 INCH AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE COOLER SPOTS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WITH DEEPER MIXING...DWPNTS IN AFTN
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 30S OR 40S. NAM DWPNTS WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE
HIGH BIAS SHOW MID 30S...SO THAT INDICATES HOW DRY THE AIRMASS LOOKS
TO BE. MAY BE MORE CU THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...BUT
TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY POP-UP SHRA.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
UPPER LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT FRONT SLIDING TOWARD
UPR LAKES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES COULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND
FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO APPEARS LIKE ONLY LOW-CHANCES AT THIS
POINT.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THINKING NOW IS THAT JULY 4TH WILL BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. BECOMING WARMER AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +14C
BY END OF SATURDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESUTING INSTABILITY AROUND GIVEN OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +15C. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE MODIFICATION RESTRICTED TO
EASTERN CWA OFF LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS ON
SUNDAY COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEST HALF.
CONSENSUS POPS OF HIGHER CHANCES SEEMED GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPR MICHIGAN. SFC-H85 THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANZED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA NEXT MONDAY...WITH TIMING AND
COVERAGE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLDS/FOG AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...
DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX AND KIWD...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR
THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A
MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO
VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH EXIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST WHILE A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA RESIDE WEDGED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... EC MODEL THIS AFTERNOON
HAS TIPPED OFF WHAT SEVERAL OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR ARE MASKING IN THEIR SURFACE QPF FIELDS WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYERS. 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS SETTING ABOVE A 600-700 MB LAYER OF CAP. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND TRIGGERING SHOWERS. ONE DOES EXIST IN SEVERAL MODELS BUT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS IMPRECISE FOR THE MINOR MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... IN ADDITION THE DRY
SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY CHEW THROUGH ANY NEW RAIN AND
GENERATE MORE VIRGA THAT DROPS ON SURFACE. HENCE SPRINKLES IF
ANYTHING AT ALL.
MONDAY... RIDGE TOP WILL TRANSITION FROM IDAHO TO MONTANA FURTHER
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH A FEW
100S POSSIBLE IN THE MISSOURI BREAKS. SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND TOPPLES OVER INTO WYOMING A SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AXIS AND PUMPING IN COOL AIR
ALOFT AND GENERATING A MOIST GULF INFLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. AT THIS TIME ONLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS RE ANTICIPATED... BUT THIS COULD RAPIDLY CHANGE AS
NEW DATA IS INGESTED INTO UPPER AIR FOR THE MODELS. GAH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. JUST A FEW TWEAKS FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES. SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN
INVERTED TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP.
THE ONE ITEM NOT ADDRESSED IS THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME SORT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT RIGHT NOW
THINGS ARE NOT REALLY INDICATING THAT FOR THE FROPA ON SATURDAY
EVENING. THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...IT WOULDN`T SUPRISE
ME IF WE POPPED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BREEZY
WINDS IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. FRANSEN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
STAYS TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NE MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
LACKING MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALSO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL BE BROUGHT BACK
EAST SO THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER IT WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
OR STRONG COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONTANA
WITH A WEAK WAVES CROSSING EXTREME NE MONTANA AND NW ND. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP TODAY WITH SOME VIRGA IN
THE AREAS EAST/NORTH OF KOLF AND KSDY...BUT SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL NOCTURNAL KGGW EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE... EC MODEL THIS AFTERNOON HAS TIPPED OFF WHAT
SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND HRRR ARE MASKING WITH DRY
SURFACE LAYERS. 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS HIDDEN UNDER A 600-700 MB LAYER OF CAP. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COMING DOWN AND TRIGGERING SHOWERS. ONE DOES EXIST IN
SEVERAL MODELS BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS USUAL IS IMPRECISE FOR
THE MINOR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... IN
ADDITION THE DRY SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY CHEW THROUGH
ANY NEW RAIN AND GENERATE MORE VIRGA THAT DROPS ON SURFACE. HENCE
SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING AT ALL. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY HOT DESERT AIR CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION PERSISTS AGAIN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. THUS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. 1000MB-500MB THICKNESS HEIGHTS TODAY WILL
INCREASE OVER THOSE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN EASILY REACH INTO THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE TEMPERATURES MIGHT ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS NOTES A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW THAT WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT.
THE NAM STAYS DRY. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE
FOR NOW.
THERE WILL BE A CHANGE COMING MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH
HAS REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST TO THE VICINITY OF THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THIS SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL DESTABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST A STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING CONDITIONS ON FORT PECK
LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH A SLIGHT
DROP FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SCT
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
STAYS TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NE MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
LACKING MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALSO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL BE BROUGHT BACK
EAST SO THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER IT WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
OR STRONG COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONTANA
WITH A WEAK WAVES CROSSING EXTREME NE MONTANA AND NW ND. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP TODAY WITH SOME VIRGA IN
THE AREAS EAST/NORTH OF KOLF AND KSDY...BUT SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL NOCTURNAL KGGW EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...BUT
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES SEWD OUT OF SD. OTHERWISE THE
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PV ANOMALY
MOVING SWD OUT OF SD GENERATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BUT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CLOUDS MUCH BELOW
12K FT. GUSTY WIND BUT AOB 25 KTS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WHICH WOULD PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY PASS WEST AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. VFR
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE
WILL COME THROUGH VTN-CDR BY 08Z BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WITH WIND SPEED EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN
12KT BY 13Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN PRESS FORWARD...REACHING BBW-LBF-
OGA 10-12Z WITH THE SPEED INCREASING TO 12KT OR GREATER 15-17Z.
NO REDUCTION IN CEILING OR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EVEN THOUGH HRRR MODEL GENERALLY HAD TOO MUCH PCPN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS...THAT MODEL ALONG WITH SOME OTHERS GENERATE ISOLD
TO SCT PCPN ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
BUT NO OTHER SGFNT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 7 PM. OTHERWISE...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CLIPPER COMING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS COULD CLIP A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN IOWA AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS WAVE WILL
SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH THE THE AREA SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE NEXT CLIPPER COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES IN
FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE AREA COULD
STILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON FRIDAY FOR
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY SHOULD BE DRY. THE NEXT
WAVE COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SOUTH OF I80. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
STRONGER STORMS THAT WERE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAD WEAKENED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON COVERAGE BUT THINK KOFK AND KOMA COULD GET SOME LIGHT
PCPN. ANY CEILINGS WOULD LIKELY BE ABOVE 4000 FEET. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH. THE
RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA...AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALLOWING A MOIST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
GENERATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD
COVER HAS HAMPERED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE SIERRA AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE WEST. THIS MOVEMENT AND OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS TO REACH THE
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.
ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD
DURING THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE
FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND
IN MOHAVE COUNTRY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
CZYZYK/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV 252 AM
930 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP THROUGH
SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL. I EXPECT SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY...ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES THAT WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE WEST
AND INTO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN LAST EVENING.
IN MOST LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS EXPECTED. THE
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AND
AN INCREASE IN POPS...PARTICULARLY PRIOR TO 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 252 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE ARE IN A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT THIS MORNING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE COAST. WITH THE JET PUSHING NORTH HELPING TO LIFT
THIS MOISTURE, WHICH IS MAINLY IN THE HIGH AND MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS THIN A BIT AT
TIMES, HOWEVER, LOOKING AT MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 700
MB AND ABOVE LAYERS, IT DOES NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH OF A DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TODAY WITH THE MOST SUN IN EASTERN SECTIONS CLOSER
TO THE RIDGE CENTER WHERE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP IN SQUASHING SOME OF THE CLOUDS THAT TRY TO GET
GOING. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY, TEMPS WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS YESTERDAY IN THE WESTERN CWFA AND HIGHS WERE LOWERED A
LITTLE HERE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES ABOVE
NORMAL IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS HERE TODAY AGAIN WILL SEE 100-105.
CONVECTION GOT GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA YESTERDAY AND PROPAGATED FAR ENOUGH WEST ACROSS THE STATE TO
PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. SOME RETURNS
WERE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HERE FOR MUCH TO THE
REACH THE GROUND INITIALLY. HOWEVER, AS THE REMAINS OF WHATEVER
CONVECTION THAT FORMED OFF TO THE EAST YESTERDAY DRIFTS WEST IT MAY
HELP TO JUICE THESE AREAS UP A LITTLE MORE AND THUS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND WRF, I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING.
WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, I
HAVE SOME DOUBTS WE MAY SEE THAT MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP, HOWEVER,
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE 00Z RUN INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WITH THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AND JET
NEARBY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THESE HELPING TO TRIGGER SOMETHING,
SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FURTHER EAST, MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE LOCAL ARW AND NMM
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING AND KEEP LI`S IN
THE POSITIVE RANGE. WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HERE, BUT ACTIVITY MAY WAIT UNTIL LATER UNTIL THINGS
GET GOING OUT ON THE RIM AND WORK WEST.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LIFTS
NORTH TONIGHT AND PASSES OUT OF NORCAL ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH. THE GFS FORECAST PWATS TO PEAK
ON MONDAY, PUSHING THEM BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCH ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT THEN DECREASES THEM SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS
ALSO SHOW BROAD INSTABILITY ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY SHOW THINGS A BIT MORE STABLE. POPS WERE KEPT
AS IS FOR NOW AS WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SOME SORT OF WEAK FEATURE MAY GET SENT UP TOWARD OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POPS ON TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RISING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS
THE AREA DRIES OUT A LITTLE.
THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA OVER THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE UNDER
THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND UTAH
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
110-113 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER
REGION. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS
AND I ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A CHANCE OF TSRA OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
SCT120 IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN
DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CHANCES OF
TSRA WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER 20Z WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BASED ON AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION..STACHELSKI LONG TERM...ADAIR
FIRE WEATHER...STACHELSKI/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
914 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS....PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS WORKING
NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AS THE JET FEEDS MOISTURE NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFFSHORE. SKY COVER
WAS ADJUSTED UP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT GIVEN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WAS PRESENTLY AROUND ON SATELLITE.
CONVECTION IS STILL GOING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS IT ADVANCES
WEST. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH OUT FOR HERE WILL BE ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT GET PUSHED INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH AND ANY BLOWING DUST. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SKY GRIDS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWFA FOR SUNDAY
MORNING BUT THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED OVERNIGHT ONCE WE SEE HOW THINGS
ACTUALLY UNFOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
TSRA OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE SCT120 IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 20 KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SIMILAR...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE FAVORED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 300 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REACHED 112 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY IN LAS VEGAS. WITH
MOISTURE TRENDING UPWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SIERRA WEST OF BISHOP AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING FROM THE EAST WITH WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA. LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. LOW GRADE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. WITH NO NOTABLE FEATURES TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT... ACTIVITY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MEANDERING AROUND NEVADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SLOWLY CIRCULATING IN
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN 108 AND 113 DEGREES ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONES. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAILY HEATING WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN ANY
PARTICULAR ZONE ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED 15-20 POPS OVER THE DESERT ZONES AND 20-30
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATED THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS
OF A CHANCE OF FOR CONVECTION GOING INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR
IN FORECASTING SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BASED ON AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
832 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS/QPF AND DROP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12
SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...556 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO WANE SOME IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE
AND WILL LIKELY BE MOST FOCUSED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS
WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
30/0600UTC. LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
WITH MOST CELLS STAYING LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
556 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO WANE SOME IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE
AND WILL LIKELY BE MOST FOCUSED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS
WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS DUE
TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
30/0600UTC. LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
WITH MOST CELLS STAYING LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ510>516-527>529.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. TWO OF THE MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCES HAVE TRIGGERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FROM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AS OF 3Z WITH MESO MODELS AND RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
THEN SHIFTING THESE SHOWERS NORTH TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
GENESEE VALLEY NEAR 6Z. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z PER LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLIP BACK TO AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED 8-12Z. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH/BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A DISTURBANCE SHIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
729 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORE MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER
ON THE BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO
EAST OF WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A
THUNDERSTORM. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE TO
EXIST AFTER SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S
AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES
LATE TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
AND FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC.
AN ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A
MID- LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING
RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL
COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON
IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO AOB 5 KTS AND
FEW/SCT CIRRUS. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY
LIGHT FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS WHICH COULD
CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VCSH...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED INTO GOING
FORECAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT
OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL
5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND DWINDLING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. A 90KT 300MB JET STREAK
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ALIGNED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND MOVING SOUTH WITH TIME. HAD SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THOSE
HAVE ENDED. THE JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER AWAY
OVERNIGHT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY A CLEAR SKY.
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SKY COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF 19Z THE FRONT
HAD CROSSED ROLLA...BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
REMAIN ON WESTERN FLANK OF 110KT JET STREAK...IN LESS FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A LITTLE CIN IN PLACE AS
OF 19Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WAS ALSO IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA HOWEVER
WHICH MAY BE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS
HANDLED THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL...ALTHOUGH IT HAS OVERDONE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST HAD CONF CALL WITH SPC AND WILL ISSUE TORNADO
WATCH FOR OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF FOSTER...STUTSMAN...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND LIKELY STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.
IT IS A MINI PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE
WAVES WILL BE KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED
THE PERIOD WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS
NOT REALISTIC.
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... HEAVIER RAIN HAVE JUST
NOT MATERIALIZED. CURRENT PRECIP LIGHT. PER THE HRRR AND RAP WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE EAST HALF AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES BUT DON`T SEE ANYBODY GETTING A HALF AN INCH OR
MORE. THUS WILL DROP THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS IN THE EAST PER THE CURRENT RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL PROGS.
SMALL TO SLIGHT CHC WILL BE LEFT FOR THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LOW
SO ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A
STRONGER PIECE OF JET ENERGY PASSES NEAR THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL PROVIDE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GET
THE SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOWS IN
THE AREA THERE MAY BE SOME MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
BUT MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND MIGHT END UP HAVING MORE FAIR WEATHER THAN
UNSETTLED. GFSENS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK.
HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH THE WPC PROGS.
MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY ALTHOUGH
THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE WEST RETAINS
THE RIDGE. TWO WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE POSSIBLY
SATURDAY AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR FRIDAY AND TO SOME DEGREE SUNDAY. THEREFORE
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT EXCEED 30 OR 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE LONG
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT DID NOT MENTION IT IN ANY OF THE TAF FORECASTS
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO WILL LIKELY
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IT MAY TAKE THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERALL NO EXCESSIVELY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FOR A THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE THE WINDS LIGHTER. VARIABLE WINDS TO START THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT
AND BY TUESDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WITH
THE HIGH STAYING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE SO WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THAT LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE OH/PA LINE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN/ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR CLE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ENE. FLOODING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
STILL CONTINUING IN NWRN CO`S. HRRR HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO
ALLOWING FOR THIS PATCH OF RAIN TO ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 06Z
AS IF SHIFTS EASTWARD. SCT CONVECTION IN THE EAST STILL CONTINUES
BUT CELLS ON THE SMALL SIDE SO ONLY EXPECT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
THERE.
COULD PUSH THE EDGE AND CHOP OUT A FEW CO`S IN NE OH FROM THE FLOOD
WATCH AND GET AWAY WITH IT. HOWEVER...JUST TOO MUCH DYNAMICS PRESENT
TO TAKE THAT CHANCE...BESIDES SOME AREAS STILL HAVE SOME MINOR
FLOODING TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE CREEKS AND RIVERS.
SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES.
THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
DIMINISH AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS UNDER THE CALM WITH THE LOW WILL SEE WINDS COME UP
SOME AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED EAST OF CLE WHERE WIND WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. RAIN HAS MORE OF LESS ENDED IN TOL
AND FDY WILL BE WINDING DOWN SHORTLY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN
SHOWERS SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW. THE STRONGEST WIND
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH FDY GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 30 KNOTS EARLIER. BY 18Z THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AND
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA. SUN NIGHT WESTERN
SITES WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR AND ALL SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN THE WIND...EVEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
DAYBREAK MON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. LAKE LEVELS HAVE RETURNED
TO NEAR NORMAL AND WINDS WERE MORE FROM THE NORTH VS THE NORTHEAST
WHICH ALLOWED LEVELS TO DROP.
ORIGINAL...WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN AS GALES PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND
PORTIONS OF LUCAS COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN
THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE
MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER
WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT GOING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>019-022-023-033-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>145-
162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 93 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 93 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 89 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/10/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 93 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 93 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 89 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 95 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 95 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 91 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 95 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 95 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 91 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY FOR MUCH
OF THE DISTRICT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD. FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS DECREASING THE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR MASS...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...BUT THEY HAVE ONLY PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE
LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS OPENING UP AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N-NE THROUGH MONDAY. A
FAIRLY STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TOWARD 1.50 INCH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ALOFT...SEEMING TO NEED SOME SORT OF ATMOSPHERIC TRIGGER TO
SET OFF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING...SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN ABSENT
SINCE THE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTED INTO WRN WA EARLIER TODAY. CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO MITIGATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION THUS FAR.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRONG JUNE SUN CONTINUES TO HEAT THE SURFACE DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES IN THE CASCADES ARE NEARING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SFC-BASED
STORMS FIRE SOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER WILL ALSO COME IN THE FORM
OF A 70-90 KT SOUTHERLY JET PUSHES INTO WRN OREGON FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR
THE CASCADES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY
STARTING OFF AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION. A COUPLE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED THUNDER AS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED JET MOVES THROUGH WRN OREGON. EITHER ROUND MAY OR MAY
NOT OCCUR...SO DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND NOT TRY TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ON TIMING. WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDER TONIGHT LIFTING N-NE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO WA EARLY MON.
THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER MONDAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
MONDAY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF +18 DEG C TEMPS WILL STILL
APPROACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...THE SAME ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RECENT HEAT...WILL REBUILD ANOTHER RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW MIDWEEK.
ODDS ARE GOOD THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF 90S INLAND
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE 590S AND 850 MB TEMPS PUSH WELL ABOVE
20 DEG C WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH NO COOLDOWN IN SIGHT...IT APPEARS TO BE A LOCK FOR MULTIPLE
INLAND LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO BREAK THEIR ALL-TIME RECORDS
FOR THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO BRING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSITION
US TO MORE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT LESS HOT NEXT
WEEKEND...LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER EAST OF OUR AREA WHICH WILL KEEP US
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. -MCCOY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW IS ROTATING A SWATH OF DRIER
AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE OREGON
BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THAT BOUNDARY OF MOIST AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BECOME ORIENTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL FEEL LIKE WE
ARE WALKING A FINE LINE BETWEEN LAL 2 AND LAL 3 STRIKE COUNTS AND
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
DESPITE THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE. COULD GET ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS WEST BUT DONT FEEL THERE WILL BE THE SAME DEGREE OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
ON MONDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH CASCADES BUT WILL NEED TO
GET HEATING AND MOISTURE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS WILL FINALLY STABILIZE SOMEWHAT AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES SOME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO KEEPING ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE ZONES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SO. THE VERY
WARM...DRY...AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD HELP ANY HOLDOVERS MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CASCADES WHERE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN WITH GREATER INTENSITY OVER TIME.
WEAGLE/JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TSTMS. CIGS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7K FT.
NO MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH THUNDER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE CASCADES LATER THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO S OF KONP WILL SPREAD N
ALONG COAST THIS EVENING...AND CIGS SLOWLY RISING TO LOW MVFR
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF CIGS 2500 TO 3500 FT SPREAD INLAND
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON AM...BUT SEEMS BEST THREAT S OF KSLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. MAY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ANYTIME...OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. BUT BY 06Z...THUNDER THREAT WILL LIKELY
TO BE ONLY OVER CASCADES. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH LIGHT S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NW LATER MON.
WESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 4 FT CONTINUES. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE RETURN OF GUSTY N WINDS AS TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SW OREGON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING FOR THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING FOR S WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
240 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL EXTEND THE
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF OUR BASIN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS EXTENSION IS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF EXPECTED VERY WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
THE HOT, UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT ANY LOCATION WITHIN OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR
AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE AREA. ON MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
OVER OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BASIN WHERE TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE PACNW ON TUESDAY, THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL, BUT NOT AS WARM THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NEVADA. 90
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE AREAS WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS SOMEWHAT EAST NEXT WEEKEND IT WILL RETAIN A FIRM GRIP ON OUR
AREAS WEATHER AS AFTN HIGH TEMPS REMAIN HOT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN OR NEAR TAF SITES KRDM AND KBDN BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z WHICH
COULD APPROACH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE BREEZY WEST WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE GORGE AND EFFECT TAF SITES KDLS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS. HOWEVER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALL ZONES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS...THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE
OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE DEEPEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON WHERE A LAL OF 4 IS EXPECTED. AREAS EAST
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF MOUNT ADAMS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL OREGON
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING.
DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS PATH...I
EXTENDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN
ZONES. THOSE BATTLING THE SOUTHEAST BENTON COMPLEX FIRE SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. POST
FRONTAL WINDS THIS EVENING AND ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA (20-30 MPH IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY). ANY NEW FIRE STARTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD AS WINDS INCREASE. WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 72 98 66 97 / 40 20 10 0
ALW 78 99 71 98 / 30 20 10 0
PSC 76 103 66 101 / 30 20 10 0
YKM 77 97 66 97 / 30 20 10 0
HRI 75 101 64 100 / 40 20 10 0
ELN 74 94 65 96 / 30 20 10 0
RDM 61 94 54 95 / 50 10 10 10
LGD 68 93 58 92 / 30 30 20 10
GCD 63 96 56 97 / 30 20 20 10
DLS 73 96 66 98 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-639-
640.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ641-642-644.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-505.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ643-645.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ044-507.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-681.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ641-675.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ026>029.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/97/97/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
316 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL DAMPEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR MOST AREAS. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK FOR HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD.
MUCH OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON HAD CLEAR SKIES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO COOL MORE QUICKLY THAN THEY
DID FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN EARLY THIS
MORNING SLOWING THE COOLING...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY MAY STILL BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS BRUSHING BY
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THIS WAVE AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE WHEN SOLAR HEATING INCREASES THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON FOR AFTER SUNRISE.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER NW OREGON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA PROVIDING GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT SOME AREAS OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL GET A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
500MB HEIGHTS LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS NW
OREGON...AND MODELED 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECASTED TO BE 8C COOLER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS PREVIOUS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACHING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST INLAND TEMPERATURES PEAKING BELOW 90F.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A TAD WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS ALLOWING
SOME MARINE AIR TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNINGS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 90F. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES.
THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF IT JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WAVE SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 90 ON TUESDAY. THE
INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL END TUESDAY AS WELL
AS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE 90
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID 90S. TJ
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING HOT AND
DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND...AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
COOL OFF MUCH EITHER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LESS LESS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
27/TJ
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST WITH CIGS GENERALLY BELOW 500 FEET BUT POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 1000
FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z SUN. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF TAF AND LEAVE IT TO SHORTER TERM UPDATES
AS NECESSARY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH SUN WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. MAY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ANYTIME...OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUN. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED PRIMARILY OVER THE NEAR SHORE
ZONES THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 21 KT. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWED THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EASING LATER THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURGE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER MODELS
ARE SIMILAR AS WELL. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH ABOUT TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
SETS UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.
OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUN
EVENING.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONE 601-ZONE
602-ZONE 603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608-
ZONE 612.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONE 601-ZONE
602-ZONE 604-ZONE 660.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEAR THE
CASCADES TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS A WEAK MARINE
PUSH STARTS TO BRING COOLER AIR THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS, JOHN DAY VALLEY, GRAND RONDE VALLEY,
AND WALLOWA COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO GRANT COUNTY.
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST LATE TODAY, THEN MOVE INLAND
MONDAY AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS
A STRONGER MARINE PUSH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY KEEPING A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY. SINKING AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 90S AND
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULONIMBUS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INVOF KBDN AND
KRDM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
REACH KPDT AND KALW. WINDS COULD EXCEED 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 108 72 97 64 / 30 30 20 10
ALW 108 78 98 70 / 20 20 20 10
PSC 110 78 102 67 / 20 20 20 10
YKM 105 76 97 64 / 20 20 10 10
HRI 109 77 100 66 / 20 20 20 10
ELN 107 75 95 63 / 30 30 10 10
RDM 97 61 93 54 / 30 30 10 10
LGD 103 71 92 58 / 30 30 20 20
GCD 106 65 96 55 / 30 30 20 20
DLS 101 75 97 66 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ639.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ641-642-644.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-049-050-
505-507.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-640.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WAZ639-681.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
WAZ675.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1034 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. THUNDER NEAR KHLG COULD SURVIVE
INTO THE CWA...BUT RAP LI/S DO NOT GO BELOW 0 OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT LI/S DO DROP AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
8 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS NOW WANING OVER THE NE...BUT A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SWRN PA
AND HEADED THIS WAY. AIR IS STILL PRETTY DRY OVER THE SERN COS.
WILL HOLD SCT TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NWRN HALF FOR THE
NIGHT...AS THE SE IS UNFAVORED BY THE FLOW PATTERN AND RELATIVELY
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. TEMPS COOLED OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN/EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT STILL ON TRACK TO
GET TO THE FCST MINS.
PREV...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT TO ALL BUT SE COUNTIES AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOW
LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND WILL
BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MAINLY
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS NOW WANING OVER THE NE...BUT A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SWRN PA
AND HEADED THIS WAY. AIR IS STILL PRETTY DRY OVER THE SERN COS.
WILL HOLD SCT TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NWRN HALF FOR THE
NIGHT...AS THE SE IS UNFAVORED BY THE FLOW PATTERN AND RELATIVELY
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. TEMPS COOLED OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN/EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT STILL ON TRACK TO
GET TO THE FCST MINS.
PREV...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT TO ALL BUT SE COUNTIES AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOW
LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND WILL
BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MAINLY
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS NOW WANING OVER THE NE...BUT A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SWRN PA
AND HEADED THIS WAY. AIR IS STILL PRETTY DRY OVER THE SERN COS.
WILL HOLD SCT TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NWRN HALF FOR THE
NIGHT...AS THE SE IS UNFAVORED BY THE FLOW PATTERN AND RELATIVELY
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. TEMPS COOLED OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN/EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT STILL ON TRACK TO
GET TO THE FCST MINS.
PREV...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VRY WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD BASES BETWEEN
3.5-4.5 KFT AGL FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AS A WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A FEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/SCT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA.
THU-FRI...AGAIN MAINLY VFR....BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EPISODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE NW PLATEAU...ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS. WLY FLOW IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...RANGING
FROM AROUND 60F IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LWR SQV.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SE.
ONLY FLOOD PRODUCT IN EFFECT IS FLW FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT
SHIRLEYSBURG. THERE ARE 5 ADDITIONAL POINTS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF TUESDAY/D3. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DIG INTO
IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 ---
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR
PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN GIVEN THE EPISODIC NATURE OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AM...MAINLY IN LOW CIGS AND FOG. UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS MOST AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS IS POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST WED-
THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLW CONTINUES FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST
CREST OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS BEING MONITORED
ABOVE CS INCLUDE: CONFLUENCE...WILLIAMSBURG...SPRUCE CREEK...BEECH
CREEK STATION AND HOGESTOWN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EPISODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE NW PLATEAU...ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS. WLY FLOW IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...RANGING
FROM AROUND 60F IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LWR SQV.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SE.
ONLY FLOOD PRODUCT IN EFFECT IS FLW FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT
SHIRLEYSBURG. THERE ARE 5 ADDITIONAL POINTS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF TUESDAY/D3. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DIG INTO
IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 ---
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR
PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN GIVEN THE EPISODIC NATURE OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT MOST AIRFIELDS...BUT WILL SEE THAT THREAT DIMINISH
BEFORE 06Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CIGS. IN FACT...WITHOUT
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
MOVING IN...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLW CONTINUES FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST
CREST OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS BEING MONITORED
ABOVE CS INCLUDE: CONFLUENCE...WILLIAMSBURG...SPRUCE CREEK...BEECH
CREEK STATION AND HOGESTOWN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
519 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EPISODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE NW PLATEAU...ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS. WLY FLOW IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...RANGING
FROM AROUND 60F IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LWR SQV.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SE.
ONLY FLOOD PRODUCT IN EFFECT IS FLW FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT
SHIRLEYSBURG. THERE ARE 4 ADDITIONAL POINTS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF TUESDAY/D3. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DIG INTO
IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 ---
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR
PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN GIVEN THE EPISODIC NATURE OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT MOST AIRFIELDS...BUT WILL SEE THAT THREAT DIMINISH
BEFORE 06Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CIGS. IN FACT...WITHOUT
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
MOVING IN...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLW ISSUED FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST CREST
OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS IN THE JUNIATA BASIN
ARE ABOVE CAUTION STAGE AND BEING MONITORED. IN THE WEST BRANCH
SUSQ BASIN...THE BALD EAGLE CREEK AT BEECH CREEK STATION IS ABOVE
CS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CONODOGUINET CREEK AT HOGESTOWN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
AT MID EVENING...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
BENTON/CARROLL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND FROM THE
MEMPHIS METRO AREA TO ALCORN COUNTY MS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELPED INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE
STORMS.
EVEN WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
ADJUST POPS/QPF/SKY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. QUICK LOOK
AT EARLY 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH WED/THU AS POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90...A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 100+ KT JET AT
250 MB LOCATED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. TONIGHT
MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG DYING SURFACE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
AFTER ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...DIURNAL FORCING MAY CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE MID-WEAK SYSTEM SLIPS FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WOBBLES ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY THE WEEKEND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...ESPECIALLY IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD GRADUALLY HEAD NORTH ALLOWING FOR A MORE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS.
BELLES
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WEAK
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HAS INITIATED SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MEM...MKL...AND TUP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT GOING TO BE WIDESPREAD. ADDED VCTS
TO MEM FOR THE 1-3Z TIME PERIOD GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
EXPECTED MAINTENANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR EVENING CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SO INCREASED SKY COVER
WORDING THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. ALSO
ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY WARMER WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 7 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY WITH MORE DRY WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A NEW COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND FRONT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS NEXT FRONT WILL START TO WEAKEN AND STALL
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WITH VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HRRR AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND
RECENT RAINFALL AT MKL...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARD MORNING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015
.UPDATE...
Increased POPs for the overnight period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a northwest
moving outflow boundary across portions of the Heartland and
eastern Concho Valley late this evening. Another area of showers
and thunderstorms over northwest Texas is drifting south towards
the Big Country. Latest HRRR brings this activity southwest
across the western Big Country overnight but is of little help
with the convection over eastern sections. Should see the
convection over eastern sections linger for a few more hours,
while convection farther north may linger well into the overnight
hours as it continues to drift south with time.
POPs were increased generally north of a Sweetwater to San Saba
line for the overnight period. No severe weather is expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to slow moving cells
and PW values in excess of 1.5 inch.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions and light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An interesting forecast setup is in place for tonight. This
afternoon, an outflow boundary stretched from Elk City, Oklahoma to
near Lubbock. South of this boundary, dewpoints are in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Water vapor analysis also shows a mid-level vorticity
maximum diving south along the Colorado/Kansas border. This
disturbance will enter the Panhandle by evening, at which time
models develop convection across that area. With northerly flow
aloft, any convection which develops here will dive south across the
region. Additionally, mainly southeast surface winds will persist
overnight, helping maintain good low to mid level convergence into
the thunderstorms as they dive south.
For Tuesday, the overnight convection is expected to diminish by mid
morning. Outflow boundaries from this may set up across our
southeast counties, which may help act as a focus for
showers/thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A tropical
disturbance moving through South Texas may also aid in thunderstorm
development across this area. As a result, POPs were retained
through the afternoon for areas south of a Sonora to Brownwood line.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Not too much has changed from previous forecasts for the long term
period. An amplified upper-level ridge across western parts of the
country will build east, stretching from the west coast to the
southeastern states for the middle of the work week. This will
result in subsidence aloft and lower surface dewpoints, effectively
ending our precipitation chances for a couple of days. During this
time, a decrease in cloud cover and rising upper-level heights will
allow afternoon high temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s.
For Friday through the weekend, the ridge to our north will weaken
and break into two pieces, with one piece remaining across the
Intermountain West, and another center of high pressure located over
the southeast states. In between these features, a weak cold front
will approach the area from the north. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along/ahead of it, which may affect the area
for the holiday weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 94 73 95 72 / 30 10 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 92 70 93 69 / 20 10 5 5 5
Junction 71 91 70 91 69 / 20 20 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1009 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING STORMS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FORCING FOR THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE
ADDED LIFT FOR STORM FOCUS. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY
DISTINGUISHABLE BOUNDARY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH JACK...WISE...DENTON AND COLLIN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY GENERIC
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
JLDUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TEND
TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE DFW AND WACO AREAS...REMAINING SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO WACO. KEPT VCTS IN THE WACO TAF THROUGH 01Z BECAUSE
ANVIL CLOUDS FROM THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOSQUE AND HAMILTON COUNTY BORDER CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
AIRPORT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TO
DISCHARGE NEAR THE AIRPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE VCTS
MENTION PRIMARILY AS A LIGHTNING ONLY THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE DFW AREA...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE DFW AREA TAFS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
SUNSET AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT ORGANIZED AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
TIED TO A FRONT OR STRONG LIFT ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
MUGGY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD APPROACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY
SUNSET. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH OVERALL WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.
THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTH TEXAS REMAINING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM EITHER FOR LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE...THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE WEEK...THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-102 RANGE
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE...INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS FAR
SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRI/SAT BUT MAY NEED TO
BUMP THESE UP IF IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL COME FARTHER
SOUTH. EITHER WAY...THINK ITS PROBABLY A GOOD BET THAT SOME
LINGERING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 73 92 73 92 75 / 30 20 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 95 74 94 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 77 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 74 93 74 93 75 / 30 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 92 74 93 74 / 30 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 91 72 92 72 / 20 20 5 20 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 72 95 73 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND WE DO
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET SHOULD
SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION. S/SE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AND GUSTY NEAR OR IN CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. I-35
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-09Z WITH KDRT AROUND
12Z.BY 16Z-17Z CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND RETURN BACK TO VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. S/SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE VCSH AT KAUS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHRA IN THE VCNTY...THEN ALL TAF SITES FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN SHRA/TSRA ARE AT GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO GO WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND/OR TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RISE AGAIN TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. VRBL
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS BECOME S TO SE 5 TO 10 KTS MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH MOST
ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS TRYING TO HINT
AT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH HAS COME TO FRUITION AS OF
YET. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT FOR HEATING
TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST HIGH-
RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WAS PRIMARILY ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING. CAPE VALUES
ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE VALUES DROP OFF A BIT FURTHER MONDAY AND THE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF AS WELL. WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE WILL
BE COL AT 500 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS
COL CREATES DEFORMATIONAL FLOW STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NW AND SE TROUGHS TO THE SW AND NE AND THIS
IS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SUMMER SEASON. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE COL IS EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE NE TROUGH DEEPENS. STILL
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS 25 KNOT
850 FLOW LEADS TO WEAK ASCENT AND POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 90 72 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 89 / 50 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 88 / 50 20 30 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 73 90 73 89 / 50 20 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOL/SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF WITH
MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE...THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY
ALI TO VCT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS BARELY DISTINGUISHABLE
THIS MORNING PER MSAS OR LAPS AND IS PROGD TO WASHOUT COMPLETELY
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BEGIN DVLPG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z CRP
SOUNDING INDICATED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS SCENARIO
AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALI/VCT WITH VSBYS REDUCED
TO MVFR LEVELS. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MOVING INLAND. RETAINED VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA REMARKS FOR NOW BUT
REFINEMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TRENDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD THEN WANE AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS RECENTLY
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...BUT HI
RES MODELS SHIFT THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
FORMING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MAY APPROACH THE MARINE ZONES AND
COASTAL BEND LATER THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY THOUGH DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OUT WEST TO
LOWER 90S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLEOP.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGH
MOISTURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION (PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-
2.0 INCHES) AND WEAKNESS ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK. MODELS A BIT
SLOWER WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECT
GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 77 91 78 90 / 30 20 20 20 40
VICTORIA 89 75 90 75 89 / 40 20 30 20 40
LAREDO 95 76 97 76 95 / 20 20 10 10 30
ALICE 93 75 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 89 79 88 80 87 / 40 30 20 20 40
COTULLA 93 74 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 77 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 88 79 88 80 88 / 30 20 20 20 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS BARELY DISTINGUISHABLE
THIS MORNING PER MSAS OR LAPS AND IS PROGD TO WASHOUT COMPLETELY
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BEGIN DVLPG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z CRP
SOUNDING INDICATED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS SCENARIO
AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALI/VCT WITH VSBYS REDUCED
TO MVFR LEVELS. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MOVING INLAND. RETAINED VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA REMARKS FOR NOW BUT
REFINEMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TRENDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD THEN WANE AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS RECENTLY
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...BUT HI
RES MODELS SHIFT THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
FORMING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MAY APPROACH THE MARINE ZONES AND
COASTAL BEND LATER THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY THOUGH DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OUT WEST TO
LOWER 90S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLEOP.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGH
MOISTURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION (PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-
2.0 INCHES) AND WEAKNESS ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK. MODELS A BIT
SLOWER WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECT
GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 77 91 78 90 / 30 20 20 20 40
VICTORIA 89 75 90 75 89 / 40 20 30 20 40
LAREDO 95 76 97 76 95 / 20 20 10 10 30
ALICE 93 75 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 89 79 88 80 87 / 40 30 20 20 40
COTULLA 93 74 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 77 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 88 79 88 80 88 / 30 20 20 20 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE VCSH AT KAUS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHRA IN THE VCNTY...THEN ALL TAF SITES FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN SHRA/TSRA ARE AT GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO GO WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND/OR TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RISE AGAIN TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. VRBL
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS BECOME S TO SE 5 TO 10 KTS MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH MOST
ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS TRYING TO HINT
AT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH HAS COME TO FRUITION AS OF
YET. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT FOR HEATING
TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST HIGH-
RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WAS PRIMARILY ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING. CAPE VALUES
ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE VALUES DROP OFF A BIT FURTHER MONDAY AND THE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF AS WELL. WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE WILL
BE COL AT 500 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS
COL CREATES DEFORMATIONAL FLOW STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NW AND SE TROUGHS TO THE SW AND NE AND THIS
IS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SUMMER SEASON. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE COL IS EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE NE TROUGH DEEPENS. STILL
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS 25 KNOT
850 FLOW LEADS TO WEAK ASCENT AND POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 90 72 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 89 / 50 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 88 / 50 20 30 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 73 90 73 89 / 50 20 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH MOST
ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS TRYING TO
HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH HAS COME TO FRUITION
AS OF YET. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT FOR
HEATING TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST
HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WAS PRIMARILY ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING. CAPE VALUES
ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE VALUES DROP OFF A BIT FURTHER MONDAY AND THE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF AS WELL. WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE WILL
BE COL AT 500 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS
COL CREATES DEFORMATIONAL FLOW STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NW AND SE TROUGHS TO THE SW AND NE AND THIS
IS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SUMMER SEASON. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE COL IS EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE NE TROUGH DEEPENS. STILL
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS 25 KNOT
850 FLOW LEADS TO WEAK ASCENT AND POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 90 72 89 73 / 20 30 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 90 71 89 72 / 20 30 20 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 89 72 / 20 20 20 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 71 89 71 / 20 20 20 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 92 74 91 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 71 89 72 / 20 20 20 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 20 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 88 72 / 20 30 20 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 90 73 89 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 90 73 89 73 / 20 20 20 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 73 89 73 / 20 20 20 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...
BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.
THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS OVER THE FAR WEST AS UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH TN/KY/WV/OH AS WELL BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. STILL...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE.
HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A VCSH/VCTS MENTION ALONG WITH PREVAILING VFR
IN SHRA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT PENDING JUST HOW FAR EAST SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAKES IT. ALSO MVFR CIGS COULD FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR FOG.
KLWB MAY DROP EVEN LOWER WITH ITS TYPICALLY FOGGY NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY HAVING AN INFLUENCE BUT APPEARS CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
DENSE FOG UNTIL LATE SO ONLY USED A TEMPO FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14-15Z/10-11AM ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED -SHRA MAY PERSIST AT KBLF/KLWB THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS INTO AND TROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY
BEFORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KLSE BUT THE
TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z OR SO.
MUCH DIFFERENT STORY FOR KRST WHERE THE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS STAYED
TO THE EAST. THE LINE IS SINKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND COULD
POSSIBLY MISS THE AIRPORT ALL TOGETHER. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH TO
START THE FORECAST AND AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL DROP
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THERE LOOKS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
THE 29.21Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF
SATURATION AT THE SURFACE BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...IT COULD TURN INTO MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. THIS WAS THE
TREND IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. WITH THE
LACK OF RAIN AT KRST SO FAR...WILL BACK OFF AND JUST SHOW A PERIOD
OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE FOG AND STRATUS BURN OFF
TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
TALE OF TWO HALVES FOR THIS WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE ON A WET NOTE.
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NEXT IN LONG LINE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
SPARKING SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERTAKE MOST OF THE
AREA...LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING AS WAVE DIVES INTO UPPER TROUGH.
REGARDING ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THIS
WAVE IS FAR MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH OF THE AREA. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAIN FACTOR FOR US. NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS AHEAD OF WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES...BUT PUTTING MORE WEIGHT IN MORE CONSERVATIVE
GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THAT SHOWERS WILL BE OVER MOST OF AREA BEFORE MLCAPE
CAN BUILD. SHORT WAVE ITSELF IS FAIRLY STRONG AND HAS SMALL AREA OF
DECENT SHEAR. BEST SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ARE BEFORE ANY
CAPE BUILDS WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY. WILL MENTION A RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH IN PLACES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNDERCUT TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...AND COULD STILL BE TOO WARM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LIKE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...LOOKING FOR RAIN FREE
PERIODS IN THIS FORECAST REGIME IS TOUGH CONSIDERING SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS FLOW OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
NEXT WAVE TO DROP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUBTLE LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEEP SHEAR COULD AID A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL BUT ACTIVITY MIGHT IMPACT AREA MORE INTO THE
EVENING WHEN THINGS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
ANOTHER SUBTLE FEATURE COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE ON WISCONSIN SIDE...CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
AS BRIEF UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN.
SAD TO SAY BUT THE CYCLE LOOKS TO CONTINUE UP TO THE 4TH OF JULY.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
SUBTLE WAVES WITH OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT RUNS OUT OF THE BEST INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT THIS TO START AFFECTING KRST
AROUND 07Z AND KLSE NEAR 09Z. THE CHANCE FOR THE RAIN SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES PAST THE TAF SITES.
UP STREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AT MOST COMING DOWN TO THE 4 TO 5
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. A BREAK SHOULD THEN OCCUR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH START TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR. THE 28.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM ALL
SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING
ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 28.01Z HRRR KEEPS THE ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WITH A BIT MORE A BREAK
SUNDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT...THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND
1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THEM. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE SO WILL STAY WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST AND THE CAPE
STARTS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THE
FEATURE...FAVORING MN/IA. SWATH OF 925-700 MB LEADS THE SHORTWAVE
IN...ALSO TAKING A MORE MN-IA TRACK. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT. AT THE SFC...AN ASSOCIATED NORTH-SOUTH
RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA BY 18Z SUN. NO
TAP TO GULF MOISTURE...BUT SOME 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT - ALBEIT
FROM THE NORTHWEST - COMES WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE PWS APPROACH
1.5 INCHES. CERTAINLY ENOUGH SATURATION TO FUEL THE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES.
AS FOR ANY SEVERE RISK...THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BUILD A THIN RIDGE
OF ABOUT 1500 SBCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS CO-
LOCATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ACTIVE REGION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ITS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE VALUES ARE REALISTIC
GIVEN THIS LIKELIHOOD. WHATEVER INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP WILL
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PAINT A REALLY SKINNY
PROFILE TO THE CAPE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR
IS ALSO MEAGER...MOSTLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND AROUND 20 KTS.
THUS...SEVERE RISK LOOKS VERY LOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE A RIGHT TURN EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AFTER IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ANOTHER
WEAKER RIPPLE FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MOSTLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SFC TROUGH COULD LINK THE SFC LOW FROM THE
SUNDAY CONVECTION WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THIS NEXT RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW. IF SO...THE BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...AND LOOKS
TO BRING A MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY TO A BULK OF THE REGION. THAT
SAID...A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH. FIRST IS HOW QUICKLY THE MONDAY
SYSTEM EXITS. IF ITS A BIT SLOWER...SOME RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/EAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD STREAK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM FAVORS
SPINNING THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/EC KEEP IT TO
THE WEST. SIDING WITH THE GFS/EC IN THIS STEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING VARIOUS RIPPLES THROUGH THE
FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
THAT/S EXPECTED. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THEIR LATEST RUNS
THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SKIRT NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY EACH DAY TO TAP INTO...SO ANY BOUNDARY OR
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME SHOWER/STORMS. THAT
SAID...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION...WHILE CONTINUING SMALL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE/WHEN ON THE VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS COULD
SLIDE IN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR MOST AREAS
STAYING DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT RUNS OUT OF THE BEST INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT THIS TO START AFFECTING KRST
AROUND 07Z AND KLSE NEAR 09Z. THE CHANCE FOR THE RAIN SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES PAST THE TAF SITES.
UP STREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AT MOST COMING DOWN TO THE 4 TO 5
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. A BREAK SHOULD THEN OCCUR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH START TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR. THE 28.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM ALL
SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING
ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 28.01Z HRRR KEEPS THE ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WITH A BIT MORE A BREAK
SUNDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT...THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND
1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THEM. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE SO WILL STAY WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST AND THE CAPE
STARTS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER SRN NM LATE
LAST NIGHT PUSHED INTO ERN COCHISE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOCORRO AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN
NM...MOVING TO THE SSW. OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION AT ALL. HOWEVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CATCHING ON. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACK TRACKING ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
FEATURE WAS OVER ERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
MOVING S-SW AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY...OR FRONT SIDE..OF THE UPPER
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER UTAH. GOES DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INDICATED 50 KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE 30/00Z OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING...THE NCAR ENSEMBLE RUN FROM 24 HOURS
AGO OR THE 29/00Z RUN WAS HINTING AT THIS HAPPENING THIS MORNING.
SO WHAT ABOUT TODAY? AS I MENTIONED ABOVE THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON
AND WILL BASICALLY USE IT FOR GUIDANCE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING TIME
FRAME. THE 07Z HRRR RUN PUSHES THE CONVECTION IN COCHISE COUNTY
ACROSS ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM BEFORE DYING
OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY BY 8 AM. IF THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL START
OFF GUNKED OVER WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLED FROM THE RAIN THAT
FELL. THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING WILL BE TELLING. AT THIS TIME...AFTER
THE MORNING SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A LOW END TYPE OF MONSOON DAY
WITH BASICALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING W-SW OF
TUCSON. WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES AS THINGS PROGRESS.
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH
DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE ALONG
THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE SLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 4O-45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY -TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DUE TO ONGOING OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS...SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING COCHISE COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BRIEF REPREIVE FROM THE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY BLOWING DUST ACROSS PINAL
COUNTY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WICKENBURG. THE STORM NEAR
WICKENBURG PRODUCED WINDS ABOVE 65 MPH ALONG WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOW HAS INCREASED IN AREA WASHES
AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THIS EVENING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG
WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION AND POPS WILL BE INCREASED IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME MEASURE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE EITHER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (AS EVIDENCED IN FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS).
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY THE PEAK CHANCES...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
TILT BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW. MODEL LL/ML CAPES OF 700-1100 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE 200/300MB RIDGE
CENTERS BEGIN TO CO-LOCATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE
ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHTS.
THE WRN CONUS PATTERN WILL MODIFY VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH
BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION. THIS
CONFIGURATION MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED MONSOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CERTAINLY WILL NOT PRECLUDE REGIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT POPS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CORE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WELL BACK TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO...WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...
WITH SEABREEZES ON BOTH COASTS, FOCUS FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE MOST INLAND
TERMINAL, KTMB, LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLIES ARND
10KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S
WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 93 78 92 78 / 30 30 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 90 79 / 20 20 40 10
MIAMI 92 80 91 78 / 30 20 30 10
NAPLES 93 77 93 77 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
854 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ADJUST FOR RADAR TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST
WI/EAST CENTRAL MN PER VAPOR IMAGERY. ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND WERE MAINLY LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR IN LASALLE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AT 845 PM.
THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO PULSE AND EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES ALONG EASTERN GRADIENT OF A REGION OF 25-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING IN THESE CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LIVINGSTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WERE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
WELL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POOL MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED PER
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT THIS...WITH
EROSION OF MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA. STILL... THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
224 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE PRIMARY WAVE
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE WHILE NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SE MN WAVE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW LONG ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE CWA WILL SEE. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID
EVENING THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SE MN WAVE MAY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO IT MAY FADE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER SO WILL WORK A BAND OF LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN EXIT THEM TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE ARRIVAL OF POPS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOW
SO MAY NEED TO SPEED THE PROGRESSION UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO GOING INTO
EARLY EVENING SO STAY TUNED. WOULD EXPECT ANY WIND THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES LEAVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE BUT WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A COHERENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH BROADER ASCENT IN PLACE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE BRINGING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF IT. A SECONDARY COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATER...
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKEFRONT
AREAS COOLING LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT WHATEVER LINGERING DEVELOPMENT TO DIMINISH.
DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH
THIS COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES...DID LOWER LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT FOR FURTHER PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO DID REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA OWING TO SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE MORE LIKELY TREND. ALSO LOWERED
SKY COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARER SKIES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BUT WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
FLOW...COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE DRIER TREND WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 50S AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S. WITH
STEERING FLOW KEEPING GENERAL MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 70S AND THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING INTO
FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE
DRY DAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES VARY BUT AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS APPEARING TO BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MOST
AREAS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FOG OVERNIGHT.
* SCATTERED SHRA/ISOL TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATER OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH CONDITIONS ALREADY NEAR SATURATION AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PROGGED TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT...NONE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON FOG AND THE RAW VSBY GUIDANCE FROM THE
MODELS IS HIT OR MISS. TRENDED VSBY DOWN IN THE LATEST VERSION OF
THE TAFS...BUT CONCERNED AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG OF 1/2 TO 1/4
OF A MILE WILL BE IN PLACE IF NOT MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL WATCH
TRENDS OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF FURTHER REDUCTION OF VSBY
IS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECT TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY AROUND MID MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS NE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR
ORD/MDW...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT GYY. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY PEAKS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LIFR VSBY.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
FRESHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. A GRADIENT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
107 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
854 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ADJUST FOR RADAR TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST
WI/EAST CENTRAL MN PER VAPOR IMAGERY. ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND WERE MAINLY LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR IN LASALLE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AT 845 PM.
THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO PULSE AND EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES ALONG EASTERN GRADIENT OF A REGION OF 25-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING IN THESE CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LIVINGSTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WERE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
WELL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POOL MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED PER
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT THIS...WITH
EROSION OF MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA. STILL... THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
224 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE PRIMARY WAVE
DRIVING THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE APPROACHING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE WHILE NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SE MN WAVE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW LONG ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE CWA WILL SEE. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID
EVENING THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SE MN WAVE MAY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO IT MAY FADE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER SO WILL WORK A BAND OF LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN EXIT THEM TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE ARRIVAL OF POPS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOW
SO MAY NEED TO SPEED THE PROGRESSION UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO GOING INTO
EARLY EVENING SO STAY TUNED. WOULD EXPECT ANY WIND THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES LEAVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE BUT WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A COHERENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH BROADER ASCENT IN PLACE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE BRINGING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF IT. A SECONDARY COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATER...
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LAKEFRONT
AREAS COOLING LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MDB
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT WHATEVER LINGERING DEVELOPMENT TO DIMINISH.
DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FURTHER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH
THIS COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES...DID LOWER LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT FOR FURTHER PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO DID REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA OWING TO SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE MORE LIKELY TREND. ALSO LOWERED
SKY COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARER SKIES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BUT WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
FLOW...COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE DRIER TREND WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 50S AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S. WITH
STEERING FLOW KEEPING GENERAL MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
IMPULSES TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 70S AND THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING INTO
FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE VARIES WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE
DRY DAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES VARY BUT AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS APPEARING TO BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MOST
AREAS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FOG OVERNIGHT.
* SCATTERED SHRA/ISOL TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATER OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH CONDITIONS ALREADY NEAR SATURATION AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PROGGED TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT...NONE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON FOG AND THE RAW VSBY GUIDANCE FROM THE
MODELS IS HIT OR MISS. TRENDED VSBY DOWN IN THE LATEST VERSION OF
THE TAFS...BUT CONCERNED AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG OF 1/2 TO 1/4
OF A MILE WILL BE IN PLACE IF NOT MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL WATCH
TRENDS OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF FURTHER REDUCTION OF VSBY
IS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECT TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY AROUND MID MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS NE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR
ORD/MDW...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT GYY. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY PEAKS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LIFR VSBY.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. EAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
705 PM CDT
WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY. INCREASING SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE NEARSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
WINDOW OF 15 TO 25 KT WINDS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS COOLER
AIR WORKS DOWN THE LAKE. THESE CONCERNS ARE FOR THE NEARSHORE AS
WELL AND IF THE HIGHER SPEEDS AND THEN HIGHER WAVES DO
OCCUR...THEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO SPAN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK
WEEK.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.
ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
..08..
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NORTH BY 00Z
WITH FRONT HEADING TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BEST FORCING
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH HRRR AND
VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT BEST SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM NEAR MASON
CITY SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. CURRENT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OVER THE EAST THOUGH WITH
LACK OF SFC TRIGGER...LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...IF AT ALL...UNDER
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER OR OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CAN FIRE CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
THIS EVENING...WILL BE NARROWING POPS/WX OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE DIURNAL SUPPORT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...AM
EXPECTING A LESSENING OF COVERAGE AFT 02Z WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN FIRES
IMPACTING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THICKER LAYER OF SMOKE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER IOWA SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A BRILLIANT SUNSET FOR AREAS WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES WAS THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OTHER CONCERN WAS TEMPS AND HOW THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SMOKE PLUME FROM CANADA.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO CUT ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND SHOULD HOLD OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. PLUS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT IN DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK...MAYBE EVEN SHOVED FURTHER WEST BY THE SURFACE
HIGH...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THE SMOKE FROM CANADA
WILL AFFECT THE MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SINCE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THE
FIRES WILL CEASE. IF SMOKE IS STILL AROUND ON TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY
NEED TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS
MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE LOW POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR VSBY TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
SEEING AN AREA OF WEAKENING LIGHT ECHOS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD POP UP HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO STILL SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
POP UP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC.
THEREFORE SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP A SLIGHT POP THROUGH DAWN.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE
HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT
DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR.
CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR
AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND
THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME
MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING OUT
THURSDAY WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY DAMPENING. THIS PULL OF NORTHERLY AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING ENHANCED
AREAS OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN SOME MCS
POTENTIAL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DAMPEN THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT WILL KEEP A WEAK NW FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KENTUCKY TO END OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR THIS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK SYSTEM...AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.
AS FOR SENSIBLE CONDITIONS...THE NW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SPARKS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL
OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT REMAIN OVERALL RATHER STATIONARY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS
LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND GENERALLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND TN. THIS IS
WHERE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND MCS POTENTIAL WILL LIE. BY
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THE LOCAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN
ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS TIME AROUND...EXPECT BEST MOISTURE
/RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL/ TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BUT PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IF THE ECMWF MODEL HOLDS TRUE...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING SE ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND THE EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION IS STILL QUITE LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/. STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THESE
MODELS...WHICH LED TO JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG DOSE OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PWATS 2 INCHES AN ABOVE/...AND
POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GFS40.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLD POP UP RAIN SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAWN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SME LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
SEEING AN AREA OF WEAKENING LIGHT ECHOS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD POP UP HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO STILL SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
POP UP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC.
THEREFORE SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP A SLIGHT POP THROUGH DAWN.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE
HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT
DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR.
CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR
AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND
THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME
MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH A MERIDIONAL RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. IN FACT...A RATHER COOL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE PATTERN. THIS SOLUTION IS SHARED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE
MCS TYPE SET UP WITH THE EXTENDED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF SOME CONVECTION DIMINISHING BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX
BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FEATURE SEEMS MORE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO KY...ESPECIALLY WITH A SEEMINGLY
STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS KY. THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT WHILE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE AS WELL AS THE
PATTERN...THE GFS SOUNDING ARE SHOWING LESS INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE ORGANIZATION WITH THESE FEATURE SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST.
PERHAPS THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INABILITY CLEAR OUT THE AREA DUE TO
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE EURO IN
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...THIS
SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY CASE AND HENCE THE MARGINAL MENTION IN THE DAY
3 BY SPC AND THIS MIGHT EVEN PERHAPS BE OVERDONE.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE INSTABILITY SEEMS A BIT BETTER AND
ORGANIZATION WOULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY AND THIS IS SUGGESTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL. FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...BUT ONCE AGAIN LACKING A BIT IN INSTABILITY
SO THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZATION BEING TIED TO THE AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND EURO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE PATTERN AND THE
EURO BECOMING MORE ZONAL OR AT LEAST A MORE FLATTENED FLOW. DUE TO
THIS AND BEING THE LAST 2 DAYS IN THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAN MORE TO A
COMPROMISE OF THE SUPER BLEND AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE RESULT OF THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
ORGANIZED SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE
DIURNAL DOMINATED TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAKENING OR FLATTENING PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY THE
EURO...AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLD POP UP RAIN SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAWN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SME LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
DECENT AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS STRONGER TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT WORK OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
TO START THE LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATES MOISTURE
LINGERS 950-900MB WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NE WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH AND NEARING
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL HIT UP
CLOUDS MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMOVED CHANCES OF FOG. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THERMAL TROUGH IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPPER LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN PWATS BLO 0.5 INCH AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE COOLER SPOTS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WITH DEEPER MIXING...DWPNTS IN AFTN
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 30S OR 40S. NAM DWPNTS WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE
HIGH BIAS SHOW MID 30S...SO THAT INDICATES HOW DRY THE AIRMASS LOOKS
TO BE. MAY BE MORE CU THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...BUT
TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY POP-UP SHRA.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
UPPER LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT FRONT SLIDING TOWARD
UPR LAKES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES COULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND
FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO APPEARS LIKE ONLY LOW-CHANCES AT THIS
POINT.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THINKING NOW IS THAT JULY 4TH WILL BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. BECOMING WARMER AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +14C
BY END OF SATURDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESUTING INSTABILITY AROUND GIVEN OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +15C. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE MODIFICATION RESTRICTED TO
EASTERN CWA OFF LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS ON
SUNDAY COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEST HALF.
CONSENSUS POPS OF HIGHER CHANCES SEEMED GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPR MICHIGAN. SFC-H85 THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANZED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA NEXT MONDAY...WITH TIMING AND
COVERAGE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
331 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIMING TOOLS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTL SD COULD BRUSH BOYD COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS FORMING JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN AND THEN KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND UPPER/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD MAKE FOR A FERTILE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WHERE AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES OR MORE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HINGES ON SOME VERY RICH MOISTURE ALOFT AT
500-100 MB AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWN DRAFTS WITH DRY AIR
BELOW THAT LEVEL. THIS SORT OF THING HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LATELY AND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD OUR TURN. SPC
SUGGESTED SWRN SD FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY MODEST GIVEN ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE MT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. 80S TO MID 90S IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING TO 700 MB AND SHOULD PREVENT SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE SFC.
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD DRAW SMOKE INTO
THE FCST AREA. HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS CNTL/WRN
CANADA AND ALASKA. LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND THE SREF SHOWS STRATUS
AROUND VALENTINE AND ONEILL BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 700MB WILL STILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
WHICH WILL RETURN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FIGHT OVER THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RICH SURFACE THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD AND
POOLING IT ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS...LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A DRIER SOLUTION
AND MUCH LESS UNSTABLE. EITHER WAY...THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST TURNS DRY FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE SPARSE...WILL HANDLE STORMS WITH A VCTS. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 01Z WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB30 GROUP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS ARE STILL
ONGOING...MOSTLY IN THE CENTRAL PORRTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AS STORMS LIKELY DIMINISH BY 30/0900UTC. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO...DRIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME. STORMS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...832 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS/QPF AND DROP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12
SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A TROUGH OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
NEAR SANDUSKY OHIO...BUT GENERAL NEBULOUS LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE SAME
REGION...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
THE FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO UPPER 50S...WITH
NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT VIRTUALLY ALL OBSERVATION
SITES IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA (SANS A NOTABLY CLEAR SPOT NEAR
CINCINNATI AND TO THE SOUTHWEST). SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES HAVE
REPORTED DENSE FOG FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...BUT NOT WITH MUCH
PERSISTENCE. IN GENERAL...THE DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME...FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...FOG HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE TRULY DENSE FOG MAY
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA.
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA. IT
APPEARS THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK
TERMINALS WHERE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST INTO MID
MORNING. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK
HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE
IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS.
BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AS OF 06Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT RAISING OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET ACROSS SW PA AT
06Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS AM.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY THIS AM FROM THE U50S ACROSS
THE N MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT
LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE
A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT
LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL
WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3
INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SW TO NE IN ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE AS A WELL- DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH
12Z. LOW LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND
WILL BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
253 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AS OF 06Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT RAISING OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET ACROSS SW PA AT
06Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS AM.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY THIS AM FROM THE U50S ACROSS
THE N MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT
LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE
A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT
LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL
WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3
INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT TO ALL BUT SE COUNTIES AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOW
LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND WILL
BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MAINLY
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
AT MID EVENING...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
BENTON/CARROLL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND FROM THE
MEMPHIS METRO AREA TO ALCORN COUNTY MS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELPED INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE
STORMS.
EVEN WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
ADJUST POPS/QPF/SKY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. QUICK LOOK
AT EARLY 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH WED/THU AS POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90...A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 100+ KT JET AT
250 MB LOCATED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. TONIGHT
MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG DYING SURFACE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
AFTER ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...DIURNAL FORCING MAY CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE MID-WEAK SYSTEM SLIPS FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WOBBLES ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY THE WEEKEND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...ESPECIALLY IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD GRADUALLY HEAD NORTH ALLOWING FOR A MORE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS.
BELLES
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MEM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR. EVENTUALLY...COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SHUNTING STORMS SOUTH. TUP WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z AS COVERAGE INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 94 72 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 95 68 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 93 71 92 70 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 92 69 93 66 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 85 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 91 66 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 86 58 88 58 / 10 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 93 71 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 93 71 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 94 71 98 68 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
AVIATION...
WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW HAS PASSED TERMINALS
SWITCHING WINDS TO NERLY FOR THE TIME. NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS RETURNING
SOUTHERLY BY TUE AFTN.
.UPDATE...
AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AREA AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN IT TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BACKS UP THE SW MOVEMENT OF THIS COMPLEX.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. ALSO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REFLECT THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND A SOMEWHAT STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS. ALL OF THESE
WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BELIEF IS THAT THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
ANY CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME MIXING
HAS INCREASED THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH AND COMPUTER MODELS PLACE
CLOUD BASES SOMEWHERE AROUND 7000 FEET AGL AND WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS... EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EARLY
ON. CONVECTION MAY LAST PAST MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS
LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM MOVES SOUTH OVER
THE AREA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND A BIT WARMER AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE STILL IS
SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BUT A LACK OF BOTH FORCING AND
SURFACE FEATURES TO SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS PRECLUDES PUTTING
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTION COULD EASILY MAKE A RETURN LATER THIS
WEEK AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
DRIVING MUCH OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WHICH COULD
PRIMARILY LEAD TO STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE COULD EVEN SEE A WASH OUT FOR THE JULY 4
FESTIVITIES WHICH HAS BEEN KNOW TO OCCUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST WILL LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
CONVECTION MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY KEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...WEST TEXAS MAY BE SPARED FROM THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 67 94 / 20 0 0 10
TULIA 65 92 69 94 / 20 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 66 92 68 92 / 20 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 66 92 68 93 / 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 68 92 70 93 / 20 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 65 91 66 93 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 66 93 67 93 / 20 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 71 97 74 98 / 30 0 0 0
SPUR 68 93 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 71 96 73 96 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
74/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.
FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT ALL AREA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
THUNDERSTORM FREE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS OVER MARSHALL AND BRYAN COUNTIES ARE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
AN AXIS OF LARGER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO
CURRENT OBJECTIVE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR STORMS DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RESERVOIR OF CAPE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOR TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE QUITE A BIT
OF CAPE/ENERGY FOR STORMS WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WE STILL NEED SOME LIFT TO CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS
LIFTING MECHANISM...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IF A
LIFTING MECHANISM BECOMES MORE APPARENT TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES AS FORECAST...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING STORMS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FORCING FOR THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE
ADDED LIFT FOR STORM FOCUS. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY
DISTINGUISHABLE BOUNDARY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH JACK...WISE...DENTON AND COLLIN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY GENERIC
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
MUGGY ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD APPROACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY
SUNSET. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH OVERALL WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.
THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTH TEXAS REMAINING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM EITHER FOR LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE...THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE WEEK...THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-102 RANGE
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE...INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS FAR
SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRI/SAT BUT MAY NEED TO
BUMP THESE UP IF IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL COME FARTHER
SOUTH. EITHER WAY...THINK ITS PROBABLY A GOOD BET THAT SOME
LINGERING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 73 92 73 92 75 / 30 20 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 95 74 94 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 77 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 74 93 74 93 75 / 30 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 92 74 93 74 / 30 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 91 72 92 72 / 20 20 5 20 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 72 95 73 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015
.AVIATION...
/05Z TAFS/
Convective activity over the central portion of West Central
Texas should still ongoing at KSJT by the time of TAF issuance
with conditions improving soon after. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue over the northern terminals through the next 24
hours with ceilings lowering to MVFR at the southern terminals
after daybreak and improving to VFR by late morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/
UPDATE...
Increased POPs for the overnight period.
DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a northwest
moving outflow boundary across portions of the Heartland and
eastern Concho Valley late this evening. Another area of showers
and thunderstorms over northwest Texas is drifting south towards
the Big Country. Latest HRRR brings this activity southwest
across the western Big Country overnight but is of little help
with the convection over eastern sections. Should see the
convection over eastern sections linger for a few more hours,
while convection farther north may linger well into the overnight
hours as it continues to drift south with time.
POPs were increased generally north of a Sweetwater to San Saba
line for the overnight period. No severe weather is expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to slow moving cells
and PW values in excess of 1.5 inch.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions and light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An interesting forecast setup is in place for tonight. This
afternoon, an outflow boundary stretched from Elk City, Oklahoma to
near Lubbock. South of this boundary, dewpoints are in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Water vapor analysis also shows a mid-level vorticity
maximum diving south along the Colorado/Kansas border. This
disturbance will enter the Panhandle by evening, at which time
models develop convection across that area. With northerly flow
aloft, any convection which develops here will dive south across the
region. Additionally, mainly southeast surface winds will persist
overnight, helping maintain good low to mid level convergence into
the thunderstorms as they dive south.
For Tuesday, the overnight convection is expected to diminish by mid
morning. Outflow boundaries from this may set up across our
southeast counties, which may help act as a focus for
showers/thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A tropical
disturbance moving through South Texas may also aid in thunderstorm
development across this area. As a result, POPs were retained
through the afternoon for areas south of a Sonora to Brownwood line.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Not too much has changed from previous forecasts for the long term
period. An amplified upper-level ridge across western parts of the
country will build east, stretching from the west coast to the
southeastern states for the middle of the work week. This will
result in subsidence aloft and lower surface dewpoints, effectively
ending our precipitation chances for a couple of days. During this
time, a decrease in cloud cover and rising upper-level heights will
allow afternoon high temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s.
For Friday through the weekend, the ridge to our north will weaken
and break into two pieces, with one piece remaining across the
Intermountain West, and another center of high pressure located over
the southeast states. In between these features, a weak cold front
will approach the area from the north. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along/ahead of it, which may affect the area
for the holiday weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 94 72 94 73 95 / 10 30 10 5 0
San Angelo 92 71 92 70 93 / 10 20 10 5 5
Junction 90 71 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OUR AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TO HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO AND TROUGH THE REGION...WITH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...
BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AXIS THAT HAS PROPAGATED
EAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER RETURN THETA-E. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWING MOST REMAINING CAPE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE LATEST
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP ABOVE SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
THAN MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL
EDGE LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ESPCLY OVER THE SW WHERE MORE IN
LINE WITH AN UPSTREAM AXIS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HEADING SE INTO NE TN
ATTM. OTRW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR IN CUTTING MOISTURE OFF UPON HEADING EAST OF THE
SLOPES. ALSO BEEFING UP CLOUD COVER ESPCLY GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
DEBRIS CANOPY SEEN OFF IR PICS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO HOLD
LOW TEMPS UP SOME AS WELL AS KEEPING FOG LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ITS PROXIMITY TO
OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WORK MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS A BOONE TO BLACKSBURG TO HOT SPRINGS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING
THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR INCREASED JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN EARLIER IGNITION TIME. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
5H TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST ALLOWING BY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME STORMS
STICKING AROUND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING/ENDING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING FROM INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY BUT
NOT SEEING A GREAT THREAT OF STORMS...MAINLY 30/40 POPS HIGHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
ALOFT HEADING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS/CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A FURTHER NWD ARC TO THIS SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE MODELS STILL FAVOR A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WEST TO
HIGH CHANCE EAST. THINGS WEAKEN/FADE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
THIS WEEKEND RETURN MORE HUMIDITY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN AT OR CLOSE ENOUGH BY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT
ALLOW FOR ONE WHOLE DAY WHERE ITS COMPLETELY STORM FREE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY...WITH DIURNAL
BASED MORE FRI-SUN-MON.
THE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN THE VARIATION IN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM STORMS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER
WILL GET BACK TO THE MUGGY 60S...LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOCAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KBCB AND KBLF
TAFS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT KLWB SO ONLY HAVE
MVFR FOG IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BLACKSBURG AWOS (KBCB) WERE NOT
AVAILABLEDUE TO A COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGE AT THE AIRPORT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING SURFACE FRONT INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND BUILD SURFACE RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE
SUPPRESSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR/AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS WILL
PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PLUS SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND BETTER/DEEPER FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK/VERY LITTLE FORCING/LIFT
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND CONFINED SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS TIMING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST
ZONAL FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE EVENING CONVECTION AND WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG
FORM. NO REPORTS OF LOW CLOUDS YET BUT THEY ARE FLOATING BY THE
OFFICE SKYCAM. GOOD SET UP FOR FOG TO FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
THE 30.03Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL START WITH MVFR FOR BOTH SITES
AND TAKE THEM DOWN TO IFR FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITHOUT GOOD MIXING TO
HELP BREAK IT UP. ONCE THE STRATUS IS GONE...SHOULD BE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE EVENING CONVECTION AND WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG
FORM. NO REPORTS OF LOW CLOUDS YET BUT THEY ARE FLOATING BY THE
OFFICE SKYCAM. GOOD SET UP FOR FOG TO FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
THE 30.03Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL START WITH MVFR FOR BOTH SITES
AND TAKE THEM DOWN TO IFR FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITHOUT GOOD MIXING TO
HELP BREAK IT UP. ONCE THE STRATUS IS GONE...SHOULD BE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARD OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATELY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT ALONG WITH A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY AT 500
FEET) HAS LEAD TO GENERALLY CLEAR CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THIS POINT ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S WITH SOME SPOTS MORE THAN 5 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO VERY WARM READINGS ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 850 MB READINGS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 1
TO 2 C WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE A DM. THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT
FORECAST TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S TO
MID 70S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS UP TO THE 90S AND 100 TO 110 RANGE
FOR SPOTS WELL INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM
READINGS IN THE SPS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE
LIST OF CURRENT RECORDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN CENTERS
AROUND POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A
POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVE AND MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE NAM WAS VERY BULLISH WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING ALMOST ALL OF THE
CONVECTION TO OUR EAST. GFS ENDED UP TAKING MORE A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH WITH SOME SHOWERS INDICATED IN OUR CWA WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO ADD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO A PORTION OF OUR AREA ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS. DEFINITELY WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
HIGHS WILL TREND COOLER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND HEADS TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A TYPICAL WIDE SUMMER TIME RANGE WITH 60S AND 70S AT THE
COAST WHILE 80S TO MID 90S REMAIN INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE
THE STRATUS DECK ACTUALLY IS. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE ONLY CIG AT
KMRY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY CIGS
MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. IMPACT WILL BE SHORTLIVED. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TOUGH CALL THIS MORNING AS CIGS LINGER ALONG
THE COAST...THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND SAN BRUNO GAP. PREVIOUS
FCST HAD CIGS...BUT CONF IS LESS FOR ACTUAL CIGS THIS MORNING.
LATEST 1KM WRF AND HRRR SHOW CIGS MOVING IN AND IMPACTING KSFO AND
KOAK BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OF CIGS
BUT CONF IS LOW. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LESS CHANCE FOR CIGS. FORECAST VFR THIS AM
AND THIS AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY THROUGH
16-17Z...BUT LESS LIKELY AT KSNS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KSNS CLOSELY
AS CIGS MAY MOVE INLAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.
.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972
MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
LINGER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS
WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH INLAND SHIFTS
TO THE COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 91 74 92 73 92 / 60 40 50 30 50
PANAMA CITY 87 78 88 76 89 / 50 40 40 30 40
DOTHAN 91 71 92 72 91 / 60 50 50 30 50
ALBANY 92 71 93 71 92 / 60 50 40 30 60
VALDOSTA 91 72 92 73 92 / 60 40 50 30 60
CROSS CITY 90 74 91 73 91 / 50 30 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 88 78 88 77 90 / 50 30 40 30 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.
NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,
&&
.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 71 93 73 / 40 40 40 20
SSI 89 75 89 77 / 30 20 30 30
JAX 92 74 93 73 / 40 20 40 20
SGJ 90 74 89 76 / 40 30 40 30
GNV 91 73 91 73 / 50 20 40 20
OCF 91 73 92 73 / 50 20 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1109 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
SURFACE-BASED LI/S HAD LOWERED TO AROUND -6 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
LATE THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST PLUS HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 200 PM. THE ARW HAD LITTLE COVERAGE.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST 18Z TO 04Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
930 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
POPS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
INDIANA. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERS A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGESTING THE BEST
AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF
A RUSHVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN. WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ALL SITES FOR COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING. THEN SKIES SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH JUST SOME CU AROUND.
ONE ISOLATED T-STORM WILL EFFECT DEC FOR AN HOUR SO WILL HAVE
TEMPO GROUP FOR IT WITH VCTS FOR COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE. HIRES
MODELS FORECAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE VCTS WITH SCATTERED CU AT ALL SITES STARTING AT
18Z...AND LASTING TIL AROUND 00Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BUT THEN HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF FOG WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
656 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
HANDFUL OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS PACKAGE.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS
INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT.
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN NOTED ON OBSERVATIONS BUT SO FAR
SEEM TO BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. SPS ISSUED
TO HANDLE FOR NOW.
TO THE WEST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO SCOOT SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SLOWLY EAST AND DISSIPATE TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...AFTER 15Z
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO RAMP UP AND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER SETTING THE
STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHC AND FOCUSED BEST SHOT IN THE
EAST WHERE TIMING OF FRONT AND DIURNAL UPTICK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. SOME CONCERN THAT STRATUS WILL HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION MIXING OUT DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SMALL HAIL OR LOCAL STRONGER WIND GUST AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SERIES OF SHRTWV`S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE
AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. THIS TRACK
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
DRY SPELL COULD LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STNRY FRONT LIFTS BACK
N-NE AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER GULF
OF ALASKA MOVG EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHC
MONDAY AS THE CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. WITH FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NE FLOW
DOMINATING... EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK... WITH WAA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SCT SHRA/TS ALSO MOVG THROUGH THE AREA ALONG A MID LEVEL
SHRTWV. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO GRDLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT. SHRA/TS MAY FILL IN SOME AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES BUT BASED ON LATEST HRRR EXPECT BULK OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHRTWV PASSAGE EARLY ENOUGH TO CONT TO LEAVE TS OUT OF
TAFS. SFC CDFNT OVER SRN WI/NRN IL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTN WITH SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS PSBL AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... FOR
NOW JUST BROUGHT IN CIGS AT 020 BUT IFR CIGS ARE PSBL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1105 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon. Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through. It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so. The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.
Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed. Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA. What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow. If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after). These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours. Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe. Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores. Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.
The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.
With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.
Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...
Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.
High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.
Monday...
As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Do have some reduced visibilities in the KBWG/KLEX corridor. These
should improve over the next hour or two. Next up will be rain
chances. Expect scattered storms to start developing by late
morning, with best coverage in the mid to late afternoon. Tried to
time the tempo groups with the highest rain chances in the public
forecast, with chance for gusty winds and at least MVFR conditions
at KLEX/KSDF. Winds will become variable as storms dies down this
evening. Cannot rule out additional fog Wednesday morning, but that
will depend on timing and location of today`s storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. KCBW RADAR IS DOWN
FOR MAINTENANCE, BUT WE HAD A LIGHT SHOWER MOVE OVER OUR OFFICE,
AND HRRR HAS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO 20
POPS ARE WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND WHAT WAS EXPECTED, BUT
WITH CLOUDS THINNING OUT NOW, THINK THAT THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ARE STILL WITHIN REACH.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND HUMID AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NEAREST TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL LOW EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOME LINGERING MVFR AND LOCAL IFR OVER NORTHERN MAINE
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT VFR BY NOON. VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT LOWERING CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR
IFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FOISY/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES
TODAY. HAVE VCSH WORDING IN MOST PLACES THIS MORNING TRENDING TO
VCTS WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO PREDOMINATE SHOWER OR STORM WORDING AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.
HAVE PRECIP ENDING AT 02Z AT ALL SITES.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR THIS MORNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING BIG ISSUES WITH
VISIBILITY AND IN FACT HAVE VFR VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. VSBYS
WILL DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LAKE AT KMKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE KSAW TAF SITE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. CMX AND
IWD WILL HAVE LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THE SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIMING TOOLS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTL SD COULD BRUSH BOYD COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS FORMING JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN AND THEN KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND UPPER/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD MAKE FOR A FERTILE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WHERE AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES OR MORE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HINGES ON SOME VERY RICH MOISTURE ALOFT AT
500-100 MB AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWN DRAFTS WITH DRY AIR
BELOW THAT LEVEL. THIS SORT OF THING HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LATELY AND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD OUR TURN. SPC
SUGGESTED SWRN SD FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY MODEST GIVEN ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE MT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. 80S TO MID 90S IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING TO 700 MB AND SHOULD PREVENT SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE SFC.
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD DRAW SMOKE INTO
THE FCST AREA. HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS CNTL/WRN
CANADA AND ALASKA. LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND THE SREF SHOWS STRATUS
AROUND VALENTINE AND ONEILL BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 700MB WILL STILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
WHICH WILL RETURN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. COLD FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FIGHT OVER THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RICH SURFACE THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD AND
POOLING IT ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS...LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A DRIER SOLUTION
AND MUCH LESS UNSTABLE. EITHER WAY...THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST TURNS DRY FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF KBBW
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. THEREAFTER THE SREF SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/87/87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
911 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LOW WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A LOW
CUTTING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE GENERALLY ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OHIO OUT OF THE CWA AND TO NOSE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE CWA. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS LOST
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY BUT HAS
SPARKED SHOWERS OVER A BROADER AREA TO THE WEST OF I-75 AND N OF
I-70. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF EAST AND
MODELS ARE SLOW IN THE INITIATION OF STORMS TODAY BUT INDICATE A
RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE REGION AS SUN HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED THE EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK. PREV DISC BELOW...
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS...AND SATURATED
LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KILN...KDAY...KCMH...AND
KLCK THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z.
FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK
HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE
IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS.
BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A TROUGH OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
NEAR SANDUSKY OHIO...BUT GENERAL NEBULOUS LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE SAME
REGION...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
THE FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO UPPER 50S...WITH
NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT VIRTUALLY ALL OBSERVATION
SITES IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA (SANS A NOTABLY CLEAR SPOT NEAR
CINCINNATI AND TO THE SOUTHWEST). SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES HAVE
REPORTED DENSE FOG FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...BUT NOT WITH MUCH
PERSISTENCE. IN GENERAL...THE DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME...FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...FOG HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THOUGH MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE TRULY DENSE FOG MAY
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA.
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS...AND SATURATED
LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KILN...KDAY...KCMH...AND
KLCK THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z.
FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK
HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE
IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS.
BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
644 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
OF 10Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT RAISING
OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET IN VICINITY OF
KAOO AT 10Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU THIS AM.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT
LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE
A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT
LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL
WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE
TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3
INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC MRGL RISK OF
SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX ARND
MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER LVL TROUGH JUST
WEST OF PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PM HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THU/SAT/MON. HOWEVER...CAN/T
RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES FRI/SUN...IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SW TO NE IN ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE AS A WELL- DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH
12Z. LOW LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND
WILL BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AREAWIDE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS IT MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
MARFA PLATEAU AT 30/1345Z. THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WE COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MAX HEATING...SO WILL
LEAVE LOW ORDER POPS THERE. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVELS
OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...AND OTHERWISE TWEAKED
SKY COVERAGE. AN UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 90 70 94 69 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 93 65 97 69 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 92 72 90 71 / 30 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 68 95 68 / 30 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 85 64 91 68 / 20 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 91 65 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 86 57 88 59 / 30 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 90 69 94 70 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 89 70 94 69 / 20 0 0 0
WINK TX 95 70 97 71 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 94 70 94 69 / 40 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 93 65 97 69 / 40 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 91 72 90 71 / 20 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 68 95 68 / 30 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 87 64 91 68 / 30 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 90 65 93 67 / 40 0 0 0
MARFA TX 87 57 88 59 / 30 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 92 69 94 70 / 30 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 92 70 94 69 / 30 0 0 0
WINK TX 95 70 97 71 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
326 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE VERY HOT FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 105-115 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THE EASTERN COASTAL
RANGE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE HOT INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY SO WE HAVE NOT ONLY UPGRADED THE WATCH TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF CONCERN. ANY RESIDENTS OR
VISITORS WHO MAY SEEK RELIEF NEAR SHASTA LAKE OR CLEARLAKE SHOULD
BE AWARE THAT THESE AREAS ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 6-12 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. REDDING AT 3PM WAS 110 WHICH IS NEARING
THE RECORD OF 111 (2014). OUR OTHER CLIMATE SITES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT IT IS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWA...AS PREDICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL THIS MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BORDERS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
FOR TOMORROW ONWARD, MODELS ACROSS THE BOARD REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN THE HOT WEATHER WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BEGIN ITS
RETURN ON THURSDAY ALLOWING THIS AREA TO BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WILL NUDGE DOWNWARD, BUT STILL REMAIN VERY
HOT.
THE CHALLENGE THIS WEEK IS HOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PLAY OUT
IN THE VALLEY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST PROPONENT FOR
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY ON THURS & FRI WITH PW
VALUES RANGING 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES IN OUR REGION. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND 500 MB AND HIGHER SO THERE IS
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE WILL GET ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OR
JUST SPRINKLES IN THE VALLEY INSTEAD. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. ANOTHER QUESTION RELATED TO THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS HOW
MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL TRAP HEAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IF MUCH OF THE SKY REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. IF SKIES AREN`T AS CLOUDY AS
EXPECTED, THEN MORE COOLING MAY OCCUR WHICH COULD TRIGGER AN
EARLIER CANCELATION OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
OVER THE WEEKEND, INTERIOR NORCAL IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FOUR
CORNERS UPPER HIGH AND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MAIN INSTABILITY, AND THUS THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, IS DEPICTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS
INTO EARLY EVENINGS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW DRIFTS
NORTHWARD, SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST. AS A RESULT, THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
COOLER. MAX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE DELTA TO
AROUND 100 IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH OVER ROCKIES EXTENDS OVER NORCAL AND CONTINUES
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HOT TEMPS. ISOLD TSTM OVER SIERRA NEVADA
BETWEEN 22Z- 02Z. AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES MAY BE HIGH WED/THU.
JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO MAKE ITS
WAY TOWARD OUR AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A SOLID STRATUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CITIES. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE ARE ALSO PASSING OVER
THE AREA. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER UTAH. IN ADDITION TO THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PRESENT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL PROMOTE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO 26 C TODAY WARMING
TO 26 TO 27 C ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 108 IN SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY VALID TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A GENTLE SEA BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES BY THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THE REPOSITIONING OF THE HIGH A SHOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NIGHT CREW ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY
TO THE FORECAST AND THE TIMING AND LOCATION SEEMS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECT A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE
THE STRATUS DECK ACTUALLY IS. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE ONLY CIG AT
KMRY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY CIGS
MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. IMPACT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TOUGH CALL THIS MORNING AS CIGS LINGER ALONG
THE COAST...THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND SAN BRUNO GAP. PREVIOUS
FCST HAD CIGS...BUT CONF IS LESS FOR ACTUAL CIGS THIS MORNING.
LATEST 1KM WRF AND HRRR SHOW CIGS MOVING IN AND IMPACTING KSFO AND
KOAK BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OF CIGS
BUT CONF IS LOW. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LESS CHANCE FOR CIGS. FORECAST VFR THIS AM
AND THIS AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY THROUGH
16-17Z...BUT LESS LIKELY AT KSNS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KSNS CLOSELY
AS CIGS MAY MOVE INLAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.
.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972
MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE TAKEN A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT THE
MAIN MESSAGE OF VERY HOT WEATHER WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONTINUES. THE MONTEREY OFFICE HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THEIR EAST BAY COUNTIES INCLUDING NAPA COUNTY. WILL LOOK AT AREAS
WEST OF OUR WATCH AREA, LIKE SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY, TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST THE HEAT WATCH AND PLAN TO HAVE AN UPDATE OUT BY
NOON.
AS FOR TODAY`S HEAT, REDDING IS FORECAST TO REACH 111 DEGREES
TODAY WHICH IS THE RECORD FROM 2014. MODESTO WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD OF 108 (1950) AS IT IS FORECAST TO HIT 107 TODAY. OTHER
COMMON SITES LIKE STOCKTON, SACRAMENTO, AND RED BLUFF WILL BE A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF THEIR RECORDS TODAY.
THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 1-2 PM. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE REGION AND NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CREST. JBB
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK. HEAT CRANKS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF NORCAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD BRINGING A HOT AIRMASS AND SUPPRESSING ANY REMAINING
COASTAL INFLUENCE INLAND. HIGHS THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 110
TO 115 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S, SO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THAT AREA.
TEMPERATURES WON/T BE QUITE AS HOT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION, BUT THE WARMEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SUMMER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE WILL
BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO ONCE AGAIN DEEPEN
THURSDAY BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF SPREADING SOME COOLING INLAND
LATE IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER ITEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TPW OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST BY THE
GFS, HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE IS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE 500 MBS SO THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF ANY STRONGER LIFTING
MECHANISM APPEARS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
OVER THE WEEKEND, INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MAIN INSTABILITY, AND THUS THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, DEPICTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS INTO
EARLY EVENINGS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS DOWNSTREAM UPPER HIGH PROGRESSES.
THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
COOLER. MAX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE DELTA TO
AROUND 100 IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO NORCAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN
21Z-02Z THEN DRIFT EASTWARD.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
907 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FLOW OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
MINOR DRYING IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY MARINE LAYER STRATUS
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...SCATTERED-TO-FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TWO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVING AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
SONORA AND BAJA. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SPIT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH MAY CREATE SOME BRIEF LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE 14Z HRRR SHOWS THE SECOND
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS BY 1 PM...AND THEN SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A MARINE LAYER
INVERSION AT AROUND 600 FEET...WHICH IS RATHER SHALLOW. THUS...LOCAL
FOG OCCURRED IN SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A
RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES...WITH 714 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN LOCATED
ABOVE 600 MB...WHICH IS RATHER HIGH. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE HI-
RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 20-30 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPILL INTO THE VALLEYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THUS...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS. THE WRF SHOWS THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES BY LATE MORNING...SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO INITIATE THERE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS THEN
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE
PRETTY WARM...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DUE TO
THE CLEARER SKIES AND HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS.
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW FAR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOW INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE COULD MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW...THIS WAVE LOOKS TOO WEAK TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THIS MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE COULD PLAY A FACTOR IN
INHIBITING LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOUD COVER WOULD REDUCE DAY-TIME HEATING...AND
THEREFORE DECREASE THE INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS ALSO WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN BRINGING OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW BECOMES A LOT WEAKER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD
MEAN THAT STORMS WOULD BE SLOW-MOVING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS ALSO
DIMINISHED ON THOSE DAYS...WITH THE GFS ONLY SHOWING UP TO 1.15
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND THE NAM12 SHOWING 0.80 INCHES.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER OUR
AREA...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COAST AND EXTREME
WESTERN VALLEYS.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY. THE GFS SHOWS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD STAYING TO OUR EAST...WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST...POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN AND BECOME LESS PATCHY...WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS OVER THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
301550Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 500-1000 FEET
MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FEET MSL...AND DISSIPATING AROUND 1630Z.
STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KSAN TAF FOR
TONIGHT IS MODERATE-HIGH...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS MODERATE.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS.
MTNS/DESERTS...CU/TCU DEVELOPING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO NEAR 30000
FT MSL. LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN OUTFLOW WINDS FROM MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO REACHING THE DESERT TAFS IS
MODERATE-HIGH...SO GUSTY WINDS INCLUDED IN THE KTRM TAF FOR THIS
MORNING. RISK OF KTRM VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW 1 MILE IN BLOWING
DUST IS VERY LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
850 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.
THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.
AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED. AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)
ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)
ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.
JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.
POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.
THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.
SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED. AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)
ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)
ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.
JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.
POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ITS
WAKE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372...IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM FOR ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ERN PA
HAS ALREADY PROMPTED WARNINGS...AND MAY DO THE SAME IN OUR FAR
WRN REACHES AS PARTIAL CLEARING WORKS ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS AND
QUICKLY DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS WELL GIVEN PROXIMITY OF WARM
FRONT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL VEERING OF WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT INCREASED POP FROM PREV SHORT TERM FCST AND
LOWERED THEM TO NONE FOR EAST OF THE HUDSON. HRRR AND SPC
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/ SUPPORT THE FCST FOR
CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF THE HUDSON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO SKY COVER...WHICH IS CLEAR EAST. SOME CLOUDS
SHOULD SPILL INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT...BUT STILL A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY THERE. NYC IS EXPECT TO BECOME CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING FIRM. AT THE
SURFACE...A RESULTANT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS E ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS WARM FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
EASTERN PA AND INTO NW NJ/SE NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS N&W...AND GUSTY S-SE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND LINGERING 2-FT S SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN PIVOTS NE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
LIFTING NORTH TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TRIPLE PT WAVE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFT AS WELL.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
TRIPLE PT WAVE APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD POSE AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTM LOOKS TO BE WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WARM
FRONT/WAVE LIFTS THROUGH.
IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WAVE...BEST MOISTURE AXIS
APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NW & W OF NYC...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT WAVE. POTENTIAL IS LOW OVERALL...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING INSTABILITY. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE IS COMING
THROUGH...ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY.
SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST
OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.
HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC...HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ISSUES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN
STREAM FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT ON SAT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK.
ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED EVE IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY TSTMS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FROPA WITH PARENT LOW
PRES SYSTEM CUTTING OFF ALOFT AND SFC LOW TRACKING DUE N THU NIGHT.
IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AT ANY
RATE...ALL SOLNS INDICATE THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND GRADUALLY
LIFTING N/NE THU/THU NIGHT LEADING TO A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THU. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TRENDS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER S WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NE PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR FRI. SAT MAY END UP BEING DRY IF THE
HIGH HANGS ON AND KEEPS A FRONTAL WAVE SUPPRESSED TO THE S. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION SUN INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH 22-00Z. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE 20 TO 25
KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE 20 TO 25
KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE AROUND
20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS CONTINUE AROUND
20 KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO THE LOWER 20S.
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF THE STRONGER NAM SOLN ENDS UP VERIFYING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI...WINDS COULD GET CLOSE. OTHERWISE...A SLY SWELL MAY
BRING SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE 5 FT WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU EVE WITH SUB- SCA CONDS THEREAFTER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BASIN AVG OF
RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING WITH ANY
CONVECTION...WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE PT LOW.
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/TONGUE/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ITS
WAKE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372...IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM FOR ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ERN PA
HAS ALREADY PROMPTED WARNINGS...AND MAY DO THE SAME IN OUR FAR
WRN REACHES AS PARTIAL CLEARING WORKS ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS AND
QUICKLY DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS WELL GIVEN PROXIMITY OF WARM
FRONT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL VEERING OF WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT INCREASED POP FROM PREV SHORT TERM FCST AND
LOWERED THEM TO NONE FOR EAST OF THE HUDSON. HRRR AND SPC
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/ SUPPORT THE FCST FOR
CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF THE HUDSON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO SKY COVER...WHICH IS CLEAR EAST. SOME CLOUDS
SHOULD SPILL INTO LONG ISLAND AND CT...BUT STILL A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY THERE. NYC IS EXPECT TO BECOME CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING FIRM. AT THE
SURFACE...A RESULTANT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS E ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS WARM FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
EASTERN PA AND INTO NW NJ/SE NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS N&W...AND GUSTY S-SE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND LINGERING 2-FT S SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN PIVOTS NE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
LIFTING NORTH TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TRIPLE PT WAVE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFT AS WELL.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
TRIPLE PT WAVE APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD POSE AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTM LOOKS TO BE WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WARM
FRONT/WAVE LIFTS THROUGH.
IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WAVE...BEST MOISTURE AXIS
APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NW & W OF NYC...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT WAVE. POTENTIAL IS LOW OVERALL...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING INSTABILITY. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE IS COMING
THROUGH...ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY.
SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST
OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.
HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC...HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ISSUES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN
STREAM FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT ON SAT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK.
ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED EVE IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY TSTMS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FROPA WITH PARENT LOW
PRES SYSTEM CUTTING OFF ALOFT AND SFC LOW TRACKING DUE N THU NIGHT.
IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AT ANY
RATE...ALL SOLNS INDICATE THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND GRADUALLY
LIFTING N/NE THU/THU NIGHT LEADING TO A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THU. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TRENDS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER S WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NE PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR FRI. SAT MAY END UP BEING DRY IF THE
HIGH HANGS ON AND KEEPS A FRONTAL WAVE SUPPRESSED TO THE S. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM
ADVECTION SUN INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SHOWERS LIKELY REMAIN WEST
OF TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH KSWF COULD SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 8Z...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME STRATUS DURING THE SAME PERIOD INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR LIKELY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN FURTHER TO THE ESE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY 17-19Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO THE LOWER 20S.
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF THE STRONGER NAM SOLN ENDS UP VERIFYING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI...WINDS COULD GET CLOSE. OTHERWISE...A SLY SWELL MAY
BRING SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE 5 FT WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU EVE WITH SUB- SCA CONDS THEREAFTER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BASIN AVG OF
RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING WITH ANY
CONVECTION...WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE PT LOW.
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...24/TONGUE/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 77 92 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 90 / 20 20 10 20
MIAMI 79 92 79 91 / 20 20 10 20
NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM TAMPA HAS KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFT AS
IT HAS SPREAD EASTWARD. HRRR MODEL STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
END WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO LATE AFT AND
SUNSET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
OCCUR ALONG THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
ANY PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE
AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE THE
DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER GUIDANCE WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THU-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A
POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE
TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET
DUE TO THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.
SAT-MON...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING NEAR
TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO LOW END
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...STORM COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST INTO LATE AFT/EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS FROM KVRB-KSUA. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL DIMINISH
AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA.
ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO
WLY COMPONENT WITH A LIMITED SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING
OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 93 74 93 / 20 40 20 40
MCO 74 95 75 94 / 10 40 20 50
MLB 73 92 75 92 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 72 93 75 92 / 30 30 30 30
LEE 75 94 76 94 / 10 40 20 40
SFB 74 95 76 94 / 20 40 20 40
ORL 75 95 77 94 / 10 40 20 50
FPR 71 93 74 92 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THRU THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHWEST OF ORD/MDW AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING INLAND THRU THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING IF THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE AS
FAR INLAND AS ORD/MDW BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO WITH THIS UPDATE FOR
CIGS AROUND 1KFT. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 19Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 19Z...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 19Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CDT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO
QUICKLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE...DO THINK
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
313 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIKELY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOME VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE TRYING TO INCH THIS PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY FOR MOST AREAS BUT TOWARDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME....BUT MORE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 19Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 19Z...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 19Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
FRESHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. A GRADIENT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
210 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECIDED TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
EASTERN MI AND OHIO AND THICK CLOUD COVER IS NORTH OF I-80. WAS
ORIGINALLY THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST PLACES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES FEATURE
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SOUTH OF I-80 SO IF ANY FORCING DOES
DEVELOP...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TO PLAY IT
SAFE...PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO FOWLER
INDIANA LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GETTING THAT FAR NORTH TOMORROW.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S...LOW TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FLOW WILL
BE OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES BUT
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP IT CONSISTENTLY COOLER BY THE LAKE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S INLAND AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE. MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS FLIPS WINDS TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 19Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 19Z...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS
DECK APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REDUCED SUNSHINE DUE TO THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO ONLY 30 PERCENT...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN AND DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. START TIME OF LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP 1500
FOOT CEILINGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
CLOSER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 19Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS REMAINING ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR. NE/E WINDS.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. SW WINDS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
FRESHEN UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. A GRADIENT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
POPS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
INDIANA. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERS A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGESTING THE BEST
AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF
A RUSHVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN. WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TRACK...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VCTS AFTER 13/14Z AT KSPI AND KDEC. FURTHER
NORTH...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT THE I-74 TAF SITES. THE
ONLY OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERIC
GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED
VISBYS TO AROUND 3SM AFTER 09Z ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
STORY REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM...THE STORY WILL BE THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST
THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. IN GENERAL A
FEW LIFTING METHODS EXIST...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE IN
THEIR OWN RIGHT...INCLUDING WAA MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SHORT WAVE VORT MAX...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE STRONGEST...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORM IN WESTERN HALF OF IOWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA INTO LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AS THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THIS THE BEST SO FAR...WITH OTHER
HI-RES GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING AGREEING. WITH PRIMARILY AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AND SHOULD BE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. REGARDING SMOKE...HIGHS DID HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING GUIDANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL WERE
NOT TOO FAR OFF. DID NOT DO MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP INTO WED...AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A GRADUAL CHANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVOLVING FROM WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH TO A BROADER MEAN
TROUGH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT ONSET THE FOCUS WILL
BE ON LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ERN GREAT
LAKES JET AND FORCING WITH CURRENT MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN SHORT WAVE.
WEAK/MODERATE AND FAIRLY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WILL PASS THROUGH IA WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL LIMITS HOWEVER SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME WEAK PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO MO/IL
BY 06Z. CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN SOUTH AND WEST INTO THU AND THU
NIGHT WITH JUST TOKEN FORCING IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BUT
CONTINUED AIRMASS STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RELATIVELY
INACTIVE.
PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GULF OF AK
LOW PASSING THROUGH WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
INTO FAIRLY BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF WARMING AND INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
TIMING QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL BE REALIZED HOWEVER WITH
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FASTER THAN RESPECTIVE GFS 12Z SOLUTION. ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THUS WILL HIT
POPS THE HARDEST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH HIGH PLAINS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY REACHING IA INTO THE NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO KEEP IT GOING IN SOME FORM INTO MON. GFS
MLCAPES SUGGEST VALUES MAY REACH 2-3K DURING PEAK HEATING. DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION SO SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE THERE...BUT SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FROPA.
OUTSIDE OF WARMING SURGE JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS
PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL TO VARIED DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN
SEEMS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SMOKE WILL STICK AROUND TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...IF NOT ALL AS THE OVERALL FLOW WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
STEERED AWAY FROM OVC SKIES SINCE MANY SITES ARE ONLY SEEING FU/HZ
FROM THE SMOKE. POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS...BUT DRY AIR COMING IN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT MAY PREVENT IT
AT MCW/ALO. SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT FOD/DSM/OTM COULD
SEE VISBYS DROP FOR PERIODS INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...CURTIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW AND
AFFECT KANSAS AT TIMES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IF ANY STORM DO FORM THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
WINDS SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF
AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND
100 WEDNESDAY THEN AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 90S.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS
THEN LOOK TO ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE
HAYS TERMINAL FROM 06Z-08Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 98 68 92 / 10 20 20 40
GCK 71 98 69 90 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 71 99 70 91 / 0 20 20 40
LBL 72 100 71 92 / 0 20 20 40
HYS 73 97 68 90 / 10 10 20 30
P28 75 100 71 94 / 0 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon. Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through. It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so. The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.
Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed. Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA. What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow. If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after). These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours. Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe. Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores. Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.
The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.
With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.
Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...
Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.
High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.
Monday...
As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015
Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas. As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening. There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east. In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.
Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight. There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now. Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.
IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
IMPACT ASSESSMENT...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON FRI AND SAT WITH MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...PUT MAIN FOCUS ON
HIGHER IMPACT FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE U.P. WHERE IT WILL
STALL OUT THROUGH SAT. THE 12/30 GFS AND 12Z/30 GLOBAL-GEM BOTH
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE U.P. FROM LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
AS CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND 12Z/30 NAM ONLY SOME QPF OVER THE NRN
CWA DURING THIS TIME. LOCATION/COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FRONT TIMING AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATION. WITH
EXACT DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS..HIGHEST OVER THE N. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE N THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DIURNAL SHOWERS ON SAT AS THE FRONT SITS
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWERS UP TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES OF QPF
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS 0.04 INCHES. THE GFS
SHOULD HANDLE QPF AMOUNTS BETTER IN THIS SITUATION...SO MODEL TO
MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD IN THE OVERALL IDEA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO THE QUICK DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. THINK
MAINLY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE WELL INLAND
WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDING SHOWS
WINDS BELOW 25KTS THROUGHOUT THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MEANING VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT WAVE ACTION ON THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE WATER TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (IN THE
LOW 40S) WHICH IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO SWIMMERS.
QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
WIDELY VARYING MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF
HAS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL
FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER THAN THE GFS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SEVERE WEATHER COULD
OCCUR IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL JUST RUN
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WV IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF 08Z. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
STRONG...EVEN TOUCHING OFF A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE SAME TIME SHOWS A
CONTINUED AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. WITH BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TODAY...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE FAR
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. HIRES MODELS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THE
VICINITY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH OVERLAID WITH DEEP
LAYER QCONV. AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING AND THE LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
END UP SEEING A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD BE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 60S WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SUNSHINE THAT
SNEAKS THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS LOW
AS THE LOW 40S. A FEW OF THE MODELS EVEN HAD A COUPLE UPPER 30
DEGREE READINGS OVER THE INLAND WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
EAST WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM OUT THAT WAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIGHT AROUND 53 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AS HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR WORK SLOWLY INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT
LINGERING LO CLDS TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS W TO E
THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT SAW
WITH STEADY UPSLOPE N WIND AND LIKELY LINGER THRU THIS EVNG. ON
WED... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HI
PRES NEARLY OVHD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FAIRLY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
EXTENSIVE IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COVER THE WESTERN
TAF SITES WHICH ARE NEAR OR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MKG BEING BY
THE LAKE SHORE HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AS THE COLF FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THEM DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. LANING AND JACKSON MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TILL AROUND 21Z OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BREIFLY CLEAR
BY MID EVEING BRING VFR TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BUT AS
A SECOND AREA OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS
RETURN... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IFR FRIDAY MORNIG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
112 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TIMING TOOLS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTL SD COULD BRUSH BOYD COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS FORMING JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN AND THEN KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND UPPER/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD MAKE FOR A FERTILE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WHERE AMBIENT PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES OR MORE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HINGES ON SOME VERY RICH MOISTURE ALOFT
AT 500-100 MB AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWN DRAFTS WITH DRY
AIR BELOW THAT LEVEL. THIS SORT OF THING HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS
THE WRN U.S. LATELY AND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD OUR
TURN. SPC SUGGESTED SWRN SD FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY MODEST GIVEN ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE MT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. 80S TO MID 90S IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
MIXING TO 700 MB AND SHOULD PREVENT SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
NEAR THE SFC.
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD DRAW SMOKE INTO
THE FCST AREA. HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS CNTL/WRN
CANADA AND ALASKA. LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND THE SREF SHOWS
STRATUS AROUND VALENTINE AND ONEILL BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 700MB WILL STILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING WAVE WHICH WILL RETURN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
60S. COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING
IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FIGHT OVER THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RICH SURFACE THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD AND
POOLING IT ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS...LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A DRIER
SOLUTION AND MUCH LESS UNSTABLE. EITHER WAY...THE PRESENCE OF
35-45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST TURNS DRY FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHIFTS EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF AN KVTN TO KBBW LINE. CHANCES
DIMINISH IN THE MORNING.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW GREATLY
DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY
TOWARDS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO
NO MENTION IN THE TAF YET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
923 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOT AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MOST ZONES EAST OF WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS
OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOISTEN, WITH THIS MORNING`S
ELKO SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.92 INCH.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW OF 0.90-1.00 INCH ACROSS ALL ZONES AS
OF 9 AM. 12Z NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BUSY
CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH THE ELKO/SPRING CREEK AREA ACTIVE ABOUT 4 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED, 92 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 336 AM /
SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS
TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE
AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION. ENTRAINED IN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
PWS ARE HANDILY OVER 1 INCH...AND THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
RETURN INTERVAL PINGING INTO A 30 YEAR EVENT. LONG STORY
SHORT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH LI`S
BROACHING -4 AND WIDESPREAD CAPES OVER 300 J/KG. THE HRRR PLACES
THE QPF BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
QPF FOCUS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. THE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10. OVERALL...THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS VERY REMINISCENT OF
A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TO
EXTREME WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE CWA DRY AND STABLE. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. LAST AFD BEFORE RETIREMENT. HARMER
AVIATION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER...THE PWS ARE OVER 1 INCH FOR MOST ZONES OR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ZONE THE NEXT 72 HRS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR TSRA WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT
LOBES WILL TAKE A GLANCING BLOW AT THE LKN CWA...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WENT FOR LALS OF 4 IN MULTIPLE
ZONES...WHICH FALLS INTO THE CATEGORY OF HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.
LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. BKN VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK
AND POSSIBLY KILN.
SKIES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING IN A LESS FAVORABLE
AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
127 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LOW WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A LOW
CUTTING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE GENERALLY ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OHIO OUT OF THE CWA AND TO NOSE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE CWA. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS LOST
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY BUT HAS
SPARKED SHOWERS OVER A BROADER AREA TO THE WEST OF I-75 AND N OF
I-70. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF EAST AND
MODELS ARE SLOW IN THE INITIATION OF STORMS TODAY BUT INDICATE A
RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE REGION AS SUN HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED THE EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK. PREV DISC BELOW...
THE FORECAST FOCUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LARGELY BASED ON
SPC-WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
PROJECTIONS...SPREADING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS KIND OF A MESS...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPING SLIGHTLY. EVEN
THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST OR
WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD FAIRLY WELL...UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LOOKING UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING INTO INDIANA ARE AN
INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ENERGY OUT OF THIS
AIRMASS. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...AND PERHAPS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS
THROUGH A 6KM LAYER. THUS...THE INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
EVENT. SINCE THE OVERALL FOCUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE SECTION OF THE CWA TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...IF
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT (AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST)...THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH CENTRAL OHIO MAY STAY IN THE
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. THUS...A NNE-TO-SSW
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS EMPLOYED IN THE GRIDS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AND THOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
ARRANGEMENT OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXACT
LATITUDINAL ALIGNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ONE OR
TWO DEGREES CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
RISE TO SIMILAR VALUES AS ON TUESDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AS THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH GROWS IN SIZE HEADED INTO
THURSDAY...ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION...AS
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MOVING IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...THE LAST 12
HOURS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION...SETTLING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE STILL ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF) ON THURSDAY.
WITH THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. BKN VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK
AND POSSIBLY KILN.
SKIES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING IN A LESS FAVORABLE
AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALIENED N-S ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CURVATURE AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST NORTH OF
THE MID STATE ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD
BE EXITING THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WILL OPT TO CLEAR THE
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR AND
MODELS ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH REDEVELOPMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH A BROAD TROUGH INDUCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED NT INTO THU...SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ORGANIZING
AND LIFTING OUR WAY. UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE SEGMENTED AND
LEAD TO A SLOWER EASTWARD EVOLUTION IN TERMS OF THE SFC LOW
MOVEMENT. CURVATURE AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MO AND BRING AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO AREAS WEST OF THE MID STATE. SFC LOW
WILL THEN UNDERGO W-E ELONGATION WHICH WILL PREVENT THE EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST...COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT AREA
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS. FOR NOW THOUGH...NO WATCH IS NEEDED.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN ALONG WITH
SEGMENTATION. GFS ELUDES TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW FORMING ALONG THE
CHAIN. THEREFORE...MORE OF THE SAME WITH A DESCENT SHOT
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO LOOK A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BOOST ARE HEIGHTS A BIT. COULD SEE TEMPS REACH NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 69 83 68 82 / 20 60 70 70
CLARKSVILLE 68 83 68 81 / 20 60 80 70
CROSSVILLE 64 76 62 76 / 30 60 70 80
COLUMBIA 68 85 69 82 / 20 60 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 68 84 69 81 / 20 60 70 70
WAVERLY 68 84 69 81 / 20 60 80 70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.DISCUSSION... TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALIENED N-S ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURVATURE AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF THE MID STATE ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WILL OPT TO CLEAR THE
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR AND MODELS
ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH REDEVELOPMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH A BROAD TROUGH INDUCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED NT INTO THU...SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ORGANIZING
AND LIFTING OUR WAY. UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE SEGMENTED AND
LEAD TO A SLOWER EASTWARD EVOLUTION IN TERMS OF THE SFC LOW
MOVEMENT. CURVATURE AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MO AND BRING AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO AREAS WEST OF THE MID STATE. SFC LOW
WILL THEN UNDERGO W-E ELONGATION WHICH WILL PREVENT THE EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST...COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT AREA
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS. FOR NOW THOUGH...NO WATCH IS NEEDED.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN ALONG WITH
SEGMENTATION. GFS ELUDES TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW FORMING ALONG THE
CHAIN. THEREFORE...MORE OF THE SAME WITH A DESCENT SHOT
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO LOOK A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BOOST ARE HEIGHTS A BIT. COULD SEE TEMPS REACH NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-STATE...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-65 BEING FAVORED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE IS ALREADY PRESSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WIDESPREAD STORM
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND IT IS DEPICTING MINIMAL
COVERAGE WITH WANING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND CERTAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH FLASH FLOODING SHOULD TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION UPDATE.../12Z TAFS/
KBNA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXCEPT FOR IF/WHEN TSRA IMPACT THE TERMINAL. BEST TIMING
FOR TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z-01Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SO INCLUDED A VCTS AT THIS TIME.
KCKV AND KCSV...SAME AS KBNA ABOVE WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. HOWEVER THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING
AFTER 08Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AT 07Z WILL
WORK EAST AND TRY AND MOVE OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT 2 TO 3 OF HOURS
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.
AT 0730Z WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME BACK BUILDING AS FAR WEST AS
CANNON COUNTY SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE. CONVECTION DOWN ALONG THE
ALABAMA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST AND TAKE ON A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP IT MORE ON THE ALABAMA
SIDE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. CONVECTION IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
AND CONVECTION STRADDLING THE ALABAMA BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CURRENTLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WILL GENERALLY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS NEXT 12 HOURS BUT SHARP
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN
INSITU FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE TRANSIENT
ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AROUND ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS AT A MORE SEASONAL LEVEL AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN
NASHVILLE IS 88 AND THE NORMAL LOW IS 67. NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOME HEFTY QPF NUMBERS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AS MUCH AS 3+ INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG A 75 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR STRADDLING INTERSTATE
24...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 87 69 83 70 / 40 20 70 70
CLARKSVILLE 86 68 80 69 / 40 20 70 80
CROSSVILLE 80 64 78 67 / 60 30 70 70
COLUMBIA 88 68 84 70 / 40 20 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 87 68 84 70 / 40 20 70 70
WAVERLY 87 69 82 70 / 40 20 70 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THEN AGAIN AFTER 16Z WED. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN IN THE 30-HOUR SITES FOR WED. S/SE WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN
5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. IN OR NEAR CONVECTION WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KSAT/KSSF AROUND 07Z-08Z THEN
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CIGS FOR KAUS. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z-18Z WED. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z-
16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 74 93 74 92 / 40 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 73 92 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 90 73 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 91 / 30 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 92 / 40 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 91 / 50 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 74 92 / 50 10 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 74 93 74 92 / 40 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 73 92 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 90 73 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 91 / 30 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 92 / 40 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 91 / 50 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 92 / 40 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 74 92 / 50 10 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPRELLE CREEK AND WINDY PEAK
SNOTELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT OUTSIDE THIS AREA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ECHOES
ARE ELEVATED. 1PM HUMIDITY AT CHEYENNE AT 19 PERCENT...DOUGLAS AT
24 PERCENT...LARAMIE 21 PERCENT...SO THESE ECHOES ARE GOING TO
TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO REACH THE GROUND. SO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 500J/KG
CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING. NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE PANHANDLE
JUST LOST THEIR CAP OUT THAT WAY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG.
JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EXISTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
STILL HOLDING GOOD UP THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR SHOWS INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. OVERALL
THOUGH...DO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE ECMWF. GFS HAS FRONT FURTHER EAST
IN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...DI NOT CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING FRONT LIFTING ENE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWING PWATS ALMOST TO 1.3 INCHES
WITH LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. GOOD NEWS IS FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...SO DO THINK WE ARE OK FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DURING THAT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SW CONUS THIS PERIOD
WITH A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
BRINGING A MODEST COOL DOWN INTO MONDAY BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND
TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD HELP PCPN CHANCES
MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE WY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE SEEING WETTING RAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SHOWERS TO REACH
THE GROUND AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES QUITE LOW. EVENTUALLY
THOUGH...MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND FUELS ARE GREEN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC