Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/29/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
832 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE. THE LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR DO SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH. FORCING IS NOT
OVERWHELMING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ITS MERE PRESENCE ARGUES FOR
KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND GET UPDATES OUT
SOON. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
5-10 DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE BASIN AND RANGE COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN
SHOWING STORMS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW WORKING ACROSS WESTERN
NV. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AND ARE
WEAKER WITH THE OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH THEY DO STILL SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY NOT GET AS STRONG AS FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FROM
THE LACK OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THE WESTERN PART OF THE TAHOE BASIN
INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY HAS RECEIVED A LONGER DURATION OF
SUNSHINE WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED SOUTH OF MAMMOTH. THESE AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORM INITIATION.
OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL EJECT TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHWEST NV FOR MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK QPF SIGNALS
THERE, BUT BELIEVE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
ABOUT I-80 WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVERALL IN THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
MAY DECREASE A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO
EXPAND WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
FOR BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON FIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF HEAT
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE WE JUST EXPERIENCED. WE ARE
CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR BASIN AND RANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK. HOHMANN
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AIR MASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PREPARE FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK, WITH HIGHS WED-THU
85-95 FOR MOST SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND 100-110 FOR WESTERN NV. THIS
STRETCH OF SEVERAL HOT DAYS ALONG WITH WARM NIGHTS MEANS THE RISK
FOR HEAT EXHAUSTION AND DEHYDRATION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE WORKING OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. CARRY EXTRA WATER AND PLAN TO CHECK ON ANYONE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT STRESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH.
FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
FORECASTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST, SO WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST FOR A VERY
SLIGHT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. JCM
AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA THRU 03Z WITH A 20-30 PCT CHANCE
OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. FOR
WESTERN NV TERMINALS, INCLUDING KLOL, THESE WINDS MAY CREATE
SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SMALL
THREAT OF STRONGER SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS (5 PCT AT ANY ONE
POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY WITH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT CHANCE
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN/MITTELSTADT
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CURRENTLY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT TSRA SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CO. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TODAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CALM WEATHER OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. LATEST 07Z HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EL PASO COUNTY. GENERALLY WEAK SE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AIDE IN STRATUS FORMATION...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 14Z ALLOWING FOR THE
LIFTING OF ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
18Z TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND WET
MTNS. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS CLOSE TO 1000J OF CAPE WITH GENERALLY
WEAK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE TSTMS ACTION CONFINED CLOSELY
TO MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT...
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED TSRA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE. DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CIRCULATIONS
LOOK TO BECOME DOMINATE...DIMINISHING THE CHANCES OF ANY STRATUS OR
FOG FORMATION FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -AL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SUN AS SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE CREST OF THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUN...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E-NE
BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT. STEERING
CURRENTS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL
AGAIN PREVENT STORMS FROM MOVING TOO FAR EAST OF I-25. WITH FRONT
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGF WARMER THAN SAT...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN
NEARLY UNCHANGED. BEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTH INTO NM
SUN EVENING...LEADING TO RATHER RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AFTER
SUNSET MOST LOCATIONS. ON MON...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME EVEN
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS...AS MID LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT NE DIRECTION AS
UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD. SUSPECT MOST TSRA WILL STAY WEST OF
I-25 THROUGH THE DAY...ENDING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LACK OF
FORCING. MAX TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.
TUE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS
WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE USUAL
CROP OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA...AGAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER TUE...RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WED...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN
TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED-
SAT...WHILE LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH HIGH SHIFTING WEST AND
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH...EXPECT TUE WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND ALL AREAS FROM WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE...PROMPTING VCTS FOR KALS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z BUT STAYING CLEAR OF KCOS AND KPUB. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CURRENTLY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT TSRA SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CO. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TODAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CALM WEATHER OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. LATEST 07Z HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EL PASO COUNTY. GENERALLY WEAK SE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AIDE IN STRATUS FORMATION...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 14Z ALLOWING FOR THE
LIFTING OF ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
18Z TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND WET
MTNS. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS CLOSE TO 1000J OF CAPE WITH GENERALLY
WEAK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE TSTMS ACTION CONFINED CLOSELY
TO MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT...
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED TSRA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE. DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CIRCULATIONS
LOOK TO BECOME DOMINATE...DIMINISHING THE CHANCES OF ANY STRATUS OR
FOG FORMATION FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -AL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SUN AS SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE CREST OF THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUN...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E-NE
BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT. STEERING
CURRENTS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL
AGAIN PREVENT STORMS FROM MOVING TOO FAR EAST OF I-25. WITH FRONT
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGF WARMER THAN SAT...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN
NEARLY UNCHANGED. BEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTH INTO NM
SUN EVENING...LEADING TO RATHER RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AFTER
SUNSET MOST LOCATIONS. ON MON...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME EVEN
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS...AS MID LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT NE DIRECTION AS
UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD. SUSPECT MOST TSRA WILL STAY WEST OF
I-25 THROUGH THE DAY...ENDING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LACK OF
FORCING. MAX TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.
TUE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS
WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE USUAL
CROP OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA...AGAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER TUE...RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WED...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN
TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED-
SAT...WHILE LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH HIGH SHIFTING WEST AND
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH...EXPECT TUE WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND ALL AREAS FROM WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB THIS
MORNING AS MOIST SE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z AS WESTERLY FLOW TAKES
OVER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS REMAIN CONFINED TO MTN TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WL LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WEAK AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AS CEILINGS AT KPOU
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOWERING. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON THE
RADAR ACROSS NW NJ AND NE PA THAT THE NEW HRRR SUGGESTS MAY
MIGRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO WE WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS OHIO
VALLEY STORM IS TAKING SHAPE. WE WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A
BIT FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE
WILL ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN IMPRESSIVE STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
12Z MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN
NY REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY SATURDAY WILL START OUT DRY...BUT RAIN WILL BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING...WITH POPS FORECAST TO RISE AND REACH 100 PERCENT IN
ALL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GENERALLY 100 PERCENT POPS
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. EVEN WITH REDUCED
RAINFALL FORECASTS...STILL EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
12Z RUNS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CENTER...BUT IT IS NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN...SO THE MODELS NOW SHOW A
STRONG DRY SLOT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE WIDESPREAD PCPN AREA BREAKING UP INTO A SHOWERY PATTERN.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE PCPN...WITH EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THE DRY SLOT MAY ALSO RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF TSTMS ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BESIDES THE RAIN...THE OTHER FACTOR OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WHEN THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHEAST GRADIENT (MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE BERKSHIRES AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS. WILL MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME
HIGHS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID
70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AS
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS /AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC/ ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW U70S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NY AND
NEW ENGLAND. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...AS A WARM FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH BASED ON THE GEFS/GFS/ECMWF IMPACTS THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT-WAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL-NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S WITH SOME L70S. NOT SURE
ABOUT L70S THIS FAR OUT...BUT SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IF SUFFICIENT SFC
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING OCCURS. THE GFS FOR TUE CONTINUES TO HAVE 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS INDICATIVE OF SOME DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
THE GEFS HAVE PWATS RISE ABOUT 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO L80S. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE U50S TO
L60S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID AND U70S OVER
THE HILLS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPERED THE POPS DOWN FURTHER THURSDAY TO
NOTHING OR SLIGHT CHC...AS THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WX WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM. LOWS PRESSURE MAY MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VERY
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...ARE MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND WILL SHORTLY BECOME BKN-OVC AT ALL SITES AROUND 20-25
KFT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 10-15 KFT BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. A STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL
NY/PENNSYLVANIA AND LOOKS TO REACH INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-
21Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. INITIALLY...VSBY WILL LOWER TO 4-5SM
WITHIN RAINFALL BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS AT 3500-5000
FT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP INTO MVFR RANGE AS WELL.
AS RAINFALL INTENSITY STARTS TO PICK UP TOWARDS EVENING...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND 23Z/SATURDAY-01Z/SUNDAY
WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1-2SM. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 1500-2500 FT...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 1000 FT DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT MORNING TO 5-10 KTS.
BY SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING...WINDS WILL BECOME E-NE AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS...ESP AT KPSF...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPSF WITH
WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS WELL...AS 2 KFT WINDS
REACH 30-40 KTS FOR LATE SAT EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 75
AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HSA WITH SOME UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING A LITTLE MORE. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES AT THIS
TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WEAK AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AS CEILINGS AT KPOU
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOWERING. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON THE
RADAR ACROSS NW NJ AND NE PA THAT THE NEW HRRR SUGGESTS MAY
MIGRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO WE WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS OHIO
VALLEY STORM IS TAKING SHAPE. WE WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A
BIT FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE
WILL ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN IMPRESSIVE STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
12Z MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN
NY REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY SATURDAY WILL START OUT DRY...BUT RAIN WILL BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING...WITH POPS FORECAST TO RISE AND REACH 100 PERCENT IN
ALL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GENERALLY 100 PERCENT POPS
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. EVEN WITH REDUCED
RAINFALL FORECASTS...STILL EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
12Z RUNS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CENTER...BUT IT IS NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN...SO THE MODELS NOW SHOW A
STRONG DRY SLOT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE WIDESPREAD PCPN AREA BREAKING UP INTO A SHOWERY PATTERN.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE PCPN...WITH EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THE DRY SLOT MAY ALSO RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF TSTMS ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BESIDES THE RAIN...THE OTHER FACTOR OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WHEN THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHEAST GRADIENT (MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE BERKSHIRES AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS. WILL MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME
HIGHS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID
70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AS
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS /AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC/ ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW U70S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NY AND
NEW ENGLAND. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...AS A WARM FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH BASED ON THE GEFS/GFS/ECMWF IMPACTS THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT-WAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL-NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S WITH SOME L70S. NOT SURE
ABOUT L70S THIS FAR OUT...BUT SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IF SUFFICIENT SFC
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING OCCURS. THE GFS FOR TUE CONTINUES TO HAVE 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS INDICATIVE OF SOME DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
THE GEFS HAVE PWATS RISE ABOUT 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO L80S. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE U50S TO
L60S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID AND U70S OVER
THE HILLS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPERED THE POPS DOWN FURTHER THURSDAY TO
NOTHING OR SLIGHT CHC...AS THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WX WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM. LOWS PRESSURE MAY MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS A STEADY RAIN BEGINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT KPOU
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT
ALL OTHER FORECAST TERMINALS EXITS AS WELL JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 75
AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HSA WITH SOME UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING A LITTLE MORE. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES AT THIS
TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A GALESBURG TO
BEARDSTOWN TO JACKSONVILLE LINE AT MID AFTERNOON FROM VERY WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH NEAR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z/7
PM LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA TONIGHT. DIRUNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT SUNSET AS WELL LEAVING FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA PROVINCE LINE WITH
CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MN AND EASTERN ND WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS MN/IA BY DAWN SUNDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT OVER
IL RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY NW OF IL RIVER. ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NW OF CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/7 AM SUNDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 1017 MB OVER THE MO VALLEY TO DRIFT
OVER IL OVERNIGHT. SO BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH SHOULD
DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
SLIPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F AT MID AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD BE WHERE LOWS REACH CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN MID 50S OVER
EASTERN IL AND UPPER 50S OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AS A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE WEEK. FIRST OF THE UPPER WAVES WAS TRACKING SSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST...HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
AND IS KEEPING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY JUST TO
OUR WEST. STILL COULD SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...IT APPEARS QPF VALUES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE EAST. STILL ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS GOING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH LOW POPS HOLDING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES...THE
HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT FOR NOW... WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THAT TIME FRAME...WILL KEEP THE 30-40 POPS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ADVERTISED OFF THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS NOT SHOWING MUCH
REFLECTION QPF-WISE FROM THAT SHORTWAVE.
PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK
MEANING THE DAILY THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES
OFFER SOME HOPE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS THE STRONGER
FLOW FURTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER NORTH AND BRING SOME
VERY WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH WATER
AS THERE IS IN THE SOIL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...IT SEEMS HARD TO BUY THE IDEA OF ANY PERSISTENT RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IT`S NOT THE FIRST
TIME THIS MODEL HAS TRIED TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...ONLY TO HAVE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS KEEP THE PATTERN MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE STRONGER FLOW DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST. WE CAN
ONLY HOPE WE SEE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN HEADING
INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM SUNDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-5K FT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BROKEN CEILINGS MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF PIA/SPI AND SOUTH
OF I-72. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO STAY WEST OF PIA/SPI PER HRRR AND RAP13
MODELS. THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO APPEAR AGAIN BY 15Z/SUNDAY
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
18Z/SUNDAY FROM I-55 NW. BREEZY NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
16-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER IL. WINDS BECOME SW AT
5-9 KTS AFTER 14Z/SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EAST OF IL
AND SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD TODAY AND JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER WEST...WEST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS SHOWING SOME QPF THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z-23Z FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE WEST AND ALSO EAST
OF IL OVER INDIANA. A FEW BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN
2-5K FT SE OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO TO APPEAR IN WESTERN IL BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVERALL AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F WITH NORTH BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-25 MPH ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES A COUPLE OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IA AND EASTERN MO.
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL INCLUDE WESTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE
SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WARMING BACK UP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS OVERALL AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COMES BACK TO THE SFC
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS
TEMPERED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW MOVING
THROUGH AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON DRY FOR THE ECMWF, AND
THE GFS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUN EVENING/NIGHT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. DETAILS STILL NOT IN FOCUS
AND SPC HAS OPTED TO LEAVE A SMALL CHUNK OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS JUST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORKWEEK...MON NIGHT/TUES HAS SEVERAL
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE WAVE OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NWRLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MIDWEEK AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AND A MESSY SUMMER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
AND PLENTY OF RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM SUNDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-5K FT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BROKEN CEILINGS MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF PIA/SPI AND SOUTH
OF I-72. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO STAY WEST OF PIA/SPI PER HRRR AND RAP13
MODELS. THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO APPEAR AGAIN BY 15Z/SUNDAY
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
18Z/SUNDAY FROM I-55 NW. BREEZY NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
16-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER IL. WINDS BECOME SW AT
5-9 KTS AFTER 14Z/SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EAST OF IL
AND SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD TODAY AND JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER WEST...WEST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS SHOWING SOME QPF THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z-23Z FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE WEST AND ALSO EAST
OF IL OVER INDIANA. A FEW BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN
2-5K FT SE OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO TO APPEAR IN WESTERN IL BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVERALL AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F WITH NORTH BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-25 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES A COUPLE OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IA AND EASTERN MO.
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL INCLUDE WESTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE
SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WARMING BACK UP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS OVERALL AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COMES BACK TO THE SFC
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS
TEMPERED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW MOVING
THROUGH AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON DRY FOR THE ECMWF, AND
THE GFS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUN EVENING/NIGHT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. DETAILS STILL NOT IN FOCUS
AND SPC HAS OPTED TO LEAVE A SMALL CHUNK OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS JUST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORKWEEK...MON NIGHT/TUES HAS SEVERAL
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE WAVE OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NWRLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MIDWEEK AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AND A MESSY SUMMER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
AND PLENTY OF RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MOSTLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER THE SITES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
AT BMI WHICH HAS BROKEN MVFR CIGS AT 2.5KFT. THIS WILL NOT LAST
LONG AND EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS HERE TOO. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS ALSO PRESENT ALL PIA/SPI AND BMI. DEC AND CMI DO NOT HAVE FOG
AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD THIS COMING HOUR...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER...AND HAVE IT AT ALL SITES. EXPECTING
SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO
WESTERN IL FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT I DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS. DIURNALLY
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AROUND 10-15KTS BUT THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE
REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000
TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z.
SFC CONVERGENCE IS RATHER MEAGER ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES JUST
REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE SVR WORDING IN SOUTHEAST/EAST ZONES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THROUGH 00Z. LCL HEIGHTS
EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS
INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY STORMS FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF FUNNEL. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01-02Z. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. 4KM WRF ALSO SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MN MAY EXPAND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS
WELL. WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE CEDAR RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
MORNING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. IOWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND LESSENING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN
SO...THINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
SUCH OPPORTUNITY COME LATE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTLE IMPULSE PUSHES AN
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA DOWN ACROSS IOWA.
DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BROAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES...FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED DETAILS IN TIMING OF POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
EVEN AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILT
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY...BUT EVEN SO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED THOUGH NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...THE
STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE WEEK WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND A MODEST
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE GREATEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES SO POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP AND WE CAN REFINE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN THEN
POPS FOR PART OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS
WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT IN WAKE OF THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH
PASSAGE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW...PROVIDING
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SUNNY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER RIGHT AROUND
THE FOURTH OF JULY. OBVIOUSLY ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO GOOD WEATHER AROUND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL INITIALY BE RESTRICTIONS WITH SCT EVENING
CONVECTION...AND POTENTIALLY MVFR RADIATION FOG INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT STATEWIDE AT 00Z AND WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM VFR AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SE NEAR KOTM WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM SE OF DBQ THROUGH
THE QUAD CITIES TO MACOMB IL. RECENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW VERY
WEAK RETURNS NEAR THE MACOMB AREA. THIS AXIS IS WHERE THE GREAT
LAKES AIRMASS WITH ITS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS CONVERGED WITH
THE WEAK MORE NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED
FROM EASTERN NEB TO NORTHERN WI.
IT WILL BE THIS ALONG AXIS WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FIRST DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL
BE LIMITED BY A CONVERGENT...SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MIGRATES OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THUS KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED IN LOWER MI WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO DEVELOP A FEW 50DBZ SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IL AS CLOSE AS ROCHELLE
AND OREGON IN OGLE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FARTHER WEST
THEY GET THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SO NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH...SKIES IN THE CWA WERE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SO A RATHER COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX DIVING INTO
NORTHERN IA AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IN MANITOBA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY...APPARENTLY MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHES THE
ACTIVITY TOWARDS EVENING. I CERTAINLY CAN/T IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 70S WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK VORT MAX TO AID LIFT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF NEAR 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROUGHLY OUR WESTERN HALF. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CAUSE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WHICH MEANS
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS BASED ON USING
THE SURFACE PARCEL TRAJECTORY METHOD WITH OUR AIRMASS COMING FROM
NORTHERN WI WHERE THEIR OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER
70S.
TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A DRY EVENING BUT THEN ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL SIMILAR IN ROLLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT FORCING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO OVER 1 INCH WHILE SHOWALTERS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE
NUMBERS. THEREFORE...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW BY
SUNRISE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AGAIN BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE
LOWER 60S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION LIFT QUADRANT OF 80 PLUS KT 300 MB JET DIVING
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE WITH TRIPLE POINT ALL SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING S/E SUNDAY AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTN. HEAVIEST RAINS 0.5 TO 1 PLUS INCHES SUGGESTED TO FALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA VICINITY OF TRIPLE
POINT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SURGE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHICH HAS BEEN HIT
HARD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF LATE AND GROUND IS SATURATED.
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AND
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AM
MAINLY SOUTH/EAST CWA... I DO NOT FORESEE A LOT OF SOLAR
INSOLATION AND AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT (WIDESPREAD
70S) LEADING TO LOW THREAT FOR A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER... IF MORE SUNSHINE AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY OCCURS THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING THEN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
INCREASE GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40
KTS DURING THE AFTN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT IN WRAP-AROUND OVER NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO TIME THESE
WAVES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT AND UNFORTUNATELY
DICTATES THE DAILY BARRAGE OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EVEN
THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MANY DRY HOURS. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO FEW AND FAR APART TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AND HAVE BEEN
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECASTS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS. TONIGHT...AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY SPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN IA...MAINLY NW OF THE CID AND DBQ
TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY MORNING...AND
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED IN LOWER MI WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO DEVELOP A FEW 50DBZ SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IL AS CLOSE AS ROCHELLE
AND OREGON IN OGLE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FARTHER WEST
THEY GET THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SO NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH...SKIES IN THE CWA WERE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SO A RATHER COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX DIVING INTO
NORTHERN IA AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IN MANITOBA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY...APPARENTLY MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHES THE
ACTIVITY TOWARDS EVENING. I CERTAINLY CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 70S WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK VORT MAX TO AID LIFT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF NEAR 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROUGHLY OUR WESTERN HALF. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CAUSE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WHICH MEANS MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS BASED ON USING THE SURFACE PARCEL
TRAJECTORY METHOD WITH OUR AIRMASS COMING FROM NORTHERN WI WHERE
THEIR OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A DRY EVENING BUT THEN ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL SIMILAR IN ROLLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING
TO OVER 1 INCH WHILE SHOWALTERS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW BY SUNRISE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AGAIN BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 60S
FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION LIFT QUADRANT OF 80+ KT 300 MB JET DIVING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WITH TRIPLE POINT
ALL SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING S/E SUNDAY AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTN. HEAVIEST RAINS 0.5 TO 1+ INCHES SUGGESTED TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW AS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
CWA WHICH HAS BEEN HIT HARD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF LATE AND GROUND IS
SATURATED. CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AND
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION.
AT THIS TIME... EXCEPT FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AM MAINLY SOUTH/EAST CWA... I DO NOT
FORESEE A LOT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT
(WIDESPREAD 70S) LEADING TO LOW THREAT FOR A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER... IF MORE SUNSHINE AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATING THEN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE GIVEN PRESENCE
OF STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS DURING THE AFTN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN WRAP-AROUND OVER NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO TIME THESE WAVES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND UNFORTUNATELY DICTATES THE DAILY BARRAGE OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MANY DRY HOURS. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MVFR VIS BR TIL 16Z/27 THEN VFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
DID MENTION VCSH AT KCID BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THESE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IOWA BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE KCID. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED IN LOWER MI WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO DEVELOP A FEW 50DBZ SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IL AS CLOSE AS ROCHELLE
AND OREGON IN OGLE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FARTHER WEST
THEY GET THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SO NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH...SKIES IN THE CWA WERE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SO A RATHER COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX DIVING INTO
NORTHERN IA AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IN MANITOBA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY...APPARENTLY MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHES THE
ACTIVITY TOWARDS EVENING. I CERTAINLY CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 70S WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK VORT MAX TO AID LIFT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF NEAR 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROUGHLY OUR WESTERN HALF. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CAUSE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WHICH MEANS MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS BASED ON USING THE SURFACE PARCEL
TRAJECTORY METHOD WITH OUR AIRMASS COMING FROM NORTHERN WI WHERE
THEIR OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A DRY EVENING BUT THEN ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL SIMILAR IN ROLLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING
TO OVER 1 INCH WHILE SHOWALTERS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW BY SUNRISE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AGAIN BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 60S
FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION LIFT QUADRANT OF 80+ KT 300 MB JET DIVING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WITH TRIPLE POINT
ALL SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING S/E SUNDAY AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTN. HEAVIEST RAINS 0.5 TO 1+ INCHES SUGGESTED TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW AS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
CWA WHICH HAS BEEN HIT HARD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF LATE AND GROUND IS
SATURATED. CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AND
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION.
AT THIS TIME... EXCEPT FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AM MAINLY SOUTH/EAST CWA... I DO NOT
FORESEE A LOT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT
(WIDESPREAD 70S) LEADING TO LOW THREAT FOR A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER... IF MORE SUNSHINE AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATING THEN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE GIVEN PRESENCE
OF STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS DURING THE AFTN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN WRAP-AROUND OVER NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO TIME THESE WAVES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND UNFORTUNATELY DICTATES THE DAILY BARRAGE OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MANY DRY HOURS. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT SOME MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
IFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. KCID HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...AND
KBRL HAD SOME RECENT RAINFALL...SO I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 2SM
BR. KEPT VSBYS AT MVFR FOR KDBQ/KMLI. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
EASTERN IOWA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF TAF FOR NOW AND PASS ALONG FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
946 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
POPs still look good for overnight with isld to scattered showers
and perhaps a rumble of thunder moving through our region overnight
as the complex of storms over IL/MO currently, weakens and tracks
east through the Ohio Valley. Since clouds are coming in a bit
earlier than previously forecast, increased low temps for tonight in
some areas. Low temps should hold in the low to mid 60s.
Issued at 535 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Updated the POPs to bring a 20% chance of a shower/storm into Dubois
County, IN by 23-0Z. The current complex of convection on the IL/IN
border is holding together pretty decently attm. Still think it
will weaken as it reaches dry air over southern IN, but at least
some showery activity should still survive.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Shortwave ridge in the NW flow aloft, and a bubble of surface high
pressure, have brought the Ohio Valley unusually mild temps and low
humidity for late June. Next upper vort, and a decent surface
reflection, diving into SE Iowa and NE Missouri, almost looking more
like a Clipper. Main challenge is timing and impact of what will
most likely be two separate rounds of precip.
Warm advection wing over west-central Illinois appears to be
struggling as it moves into a less favorable environment, but there
is a decent cu field extending to its south. Have mostly followed
the hi-res model data, which would suggest that timing will be a
little faster than previously advertised. Still seems like precip
chances will be maximized between 06-12Z Monday over north-central
KY and especially southern IN. This is a fairly dynamic system, but
precipitable water values around 1.3 to 1.4 inches are a bit
lackluster for this time of year, and there is quite a bit of
low-level dry air. Therefore will cap POPs around 50% and keep QPF
fairly low, especially with the first batch of warm advection
precip.
By late morning the warm advection precip will exit the Bluegrass
region, and we`ll be in a modest warm sector with gusty SW winds.
Temps will remain fairly cool aloft, and leftover boundaries will
focus afternoon convection. SPC has a slight risk as impressive
lapse rates will support hailers. However, the more favorable wind
fields will be to our north and east, limiting the SVR wind threat.
Better afternoon/evening precip chances will be in the south and
east, dropping off around midnight.
Cooler than normal temps tonight and Monday will recover to near
climo Monday night with clouds and increasing moisture.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather impressive ridging across the western CONUS, which
will result in a seasonably amplified trough across the Ohio
Valley. This regime will slowly deamplify through the week, but
mean troughing will prevail over the Ohio Valley through the
extended period making for rather unsettled conditions and near
normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
The long term period will be characterized by northwest flow aloft,
through which multiple PV anomalies will ride through. These
disturbances are inherently difficult to time, so while confidence
in precipitation through the extended is high, confidence in exact
timing remains low.
Tuesday will likely start out mainly dry as the Ohio Valley lies in
between systems. However, another compact PV anomaly diving through
the mean trough aloft will slide through the region Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. A surface trough and any lingering
differential heating/outflow boundaries will trigger convection
during this timeframe. Moderate instability on the order of
1000-2000+ K/kg of MLCAPE coupled with about 30-40 knots of
deep-layer shear (0-6km) may be enough to support some strong to
marginally severe storms Tuesday afternoon. The main threats with
these would be hail up to the size of quarters given seasonably low
wet bulb zero heights (10-11k feet) and localized strong wind
gusts. The main question on Tuesday will be the exact timing of the
upper-level disturbance and the degree of which we are able to
destabilize ahead of it.
The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the
upper-level flow flattening out just a bit, allowing a frontal
boundary to stall somewhere near or over the region Wednesday into
the upcoming weekend. Subtle disturbances riding along this
boundary will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of
which could be overnight. The location of the boundary will be key
as a more southern location (like the 28/12Z GEM) solution would dry
out the northern CWA, while a more northern location 28/12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEFS would keep much of the CWA in play for these rounds
of storms. Given the general agreement of the latter models, will
side on the wetter side of things keeping 40-60 pops in Wednesday
through Saturday. It certainly won`t rain this whole time, but the
pattern will favor progressive storm systems through the region.
Given how wet we have become over the past week or two, flooding may
become a concern once again especially if the boundary ends up
stalling over the Ohio Valley for an extended period of time.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
A quick moving low pressure system will push through the Ohio Valley
late tonight into tomorrow. This system will bring showers to all
TAF sites late tonight...probably more numerous at SDF/LEX late
tonight into tomorrow morning. Instability overnight into the
morning hours won`t be great so will not include a thunder mention
in the TAFs at this point. Winds will shift from WSW to S overnight.
The forecast for tomorrow isn`t real clear due to the timing of the
low pressure system through Ohio Valley. Current obs/trends
indicate it`s moving faster than some of the 12Z models indicate.
Thus, will side with the faster HRRR and 18Z NAM. This should
largely end showery activity at SDF during the morning hours with
perhaps a period of MVFR cigs during the later morning hours. LEX
may experience these MVFR cigs as well but the signal in the models
isn`t as strong there. The cold front associated with this low
pressure system should layout somewhere over central KY or northern
TN for tomorrow afternoon. It`s unclear exactly where that location
will be at this time, so will include VCSH at BWG/LEX which will be
closest to the boundary. Will need to watch the front`s progression
in coming TAF issuances to better define timing and if a thunder
mention should be included in some of the TAFs for tomorrow
afternoon/evening.
Winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon between 20-25 kts. The fropa
should shift winds from SSW to WSW early tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Updated the POPs to bring a 20% chance of a shower/storm into Dubois
County, IN by 23-0Z. The current complex of convection on the IL/IN
border is holding together pretty decently attm. Still think it
will weaken as it reaches dry air over southern IN, but at least
some showery activity should still survive.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Shortwave ridge in the NW flow aloft, and a bubble of surface high
pressure, have brought the Ohio Valley unusually mild temps and low
humidity for late June. Next upper vort, and a decent surface
reflection, diving into SE Iowa and NE Missouri, almost looking more
like a Clipper. Main challenge is timing and impact of what will
most likely be two separate rounds of precip.
Warm advection wing over west-central Illinois appears to be
struggling as it moves into a less favorable environment, but there
is a decent cu field extending to its south. Have mostly followed
the hi-res model data, which would suggest that timing will be a
little faster than previously advertised. Still seems like precip
chances will be maximized between 06-12Z Monday over north-central
KY and especially southern IN. This is a fairly dynamic system, but
precipitable water values around 1.3 to 1.4 inches are a bit
lackluster for this time of year, and there is quite a bit of
low-level dry air. Therefore will cap POPs around 50% and keep QPF
fairly low, especially with the first batch of warm advection
precip.
By late morning the warm advection precip will exit the Bluegrass
region, and we`ll be in a modest warm sector with gusty SW winds.
Temps will remain fairly cool aloft, and leftover boundaries will
focus afternoon convection. SPC has a slight risk as impressive
lapse rates will support hailers. However, the more favorable wind
fields will be to our north and east, limiting the SVR wind threat.
Better afternoon/evening precip chances will be in the south and
east, dropping off around midnight.
Cooler than normal temps tonight and Monday will recover to near
climo Monday night with clouds and increasing moisture.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather impressive ridging across the western CONUS, which
will result in a seasonably amplified trough across the Ohio
Valley. This regime will slowly deamplify through the week, but
mean troughing will prevail over the Ohio Valley through the
extended period making for rather unsettled conditions and near
normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
The long term period will be characterized by northwest flow aloft,
through which multiple PV anomalies will ride through. These
disturbances are inherently difficult to time, so while confidence
in precipitation through the extended is high, confidence in exact
timing remains low.
Tuesday will likely start out mainly dry as the Ohio Valley lies in
between systems. However, another compact PV anomaly diving through
the mean trough aloft will slide through the region Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. A surface trough and any lingering
differential heating/outflow boundaries will trigger convection
during this timeframe. Moderate instability on the order of
1000-2000+ K/kg of MLCAPE coupled with about 30-40 knots of
deep-layer shear (0-6km) may be enough to support some strong to
marginally severe storms Tuesday afternoon. The main threats with
these would be hail up to the size of quarters given seasonably low
wet bulb zero heights (10-11k feet) and localized strong wind
gusts. The main question on Tuesday will be the exact timing of the
upper-level disturbance and the degree of which we are able to
destabilize ahead of it.
The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the
upper-level flow flattening out just a bit, allowing a frontal
boundary to stall somewhere near or over the region Wednesday into
the upcoming weekend. Subtle disturbances riding along this
boundary will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of
which could be overnight. The location of the boundary will be key
as a more southern location (like the 28/12Z GEM) solution would dry
out the northern CWA, while a more northern location 28/12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEFS would keep much of the CWA in play for these rounds
of storms. Given the general agreement of the latter models, will
side on the wetter side of things keeping 40-60 pops in Wednesday
through Saturday. It certainly won`t rain this whole time, but the
pattern will favor progressive storm systems through the region.
Given how wet we have become over the past week or two, flooding may
become a concern once again especially if the boundary ends up
stalling over the Ohio Valley for an extended period of time.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
A quick moving low pressure system will push through the Ohio Valley
late tonight into tomorrow. This system will bring showers to all
TAF sites late tonight...probably more numerous at SDF/LEX late
tonight into tomorrow morning. Instability overnight into the
morning hours won`t be great so will not include a thunder mention
in the TAFs at this point. Winds will shift from WSW to S overnight.
The forecast for tomorrow isn`t real clear due to the timing of the
low pressure system through Ohio Valley. Current obs/trends
indicate it`s moving faster than some of the 12Z models indicate.
Thus, will side with the faster HRRR and 18Z NAM. This should
largely end showery activity at SDF during the morning hours with
perhaps a period of MVFR cigs during the later morning hours. LEX
may experience these MVFR cigs as well but the signal in the models
isn`t as strong there. The cold front associated with this low
pressure system should layout somewhere over central KY or northern
TN for tomorrow afternoon. It`s unclear exactly where that location
will be at this time, so will include VCSH at BWG/LEX which will be
closest to the boundary. Will need to watch the front`s progression
in coming TAF issuances to better define timing and if a thunder
mention should be included in some of the TAFs for tomorrow
afternoon/evening.
Winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon between 20-25 kts. The fropa
should shift winds from SSW to WSW early tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
511 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN THE EARLY MORNING
SFC ANALYSIS...EXTENDING FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...TO JUST S OF A PRX...TO DEQ...TO N OF A LIT...TO JBR LINE
AS OF 09Z. CONVECTION RIDING A SE MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SINCE WANED AS IT PUSHES INTO SE AR/NE LA ATTM...ALTHOUGH
SCT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER NE TX JUST SE OF THE
FRONT...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE MI SW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NE AND SCNTRL TX. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS DID NOT INITILIZE WELL ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR HAVING TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND HINTS THAT IT SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER ESE ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR/JUST S OF THE ATTENDENT H850 TROUGH. GIVEN
THE WEAK SHEAR...THIS CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT
AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ONCE SFC HEATING COMMENCES. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND AN ABNORMALLY
DEEP WARM LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 27/00Z KSHV RAOB /WITH THE FZL NEAR
16.1 KFT/...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS THE AIR
MASS TO THE S IS WORKED OVER FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. DID MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE
CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S THE WEAK FRONT
WILL MIX TODAY...WITH THE GFS RATHER BULLISH IN MIXING IT S TO NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF SE TX/S LA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CONSCENSUS AMONGST THE WRF/ECMWF SUGGEST THE FRONT SLOWLY
NEARING THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THE CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING S BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING...THUS TAPERING THE CONVECTION OFF FROM N TO S. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WITH THE WRF/GFS
SUGGESTING THE H850 TROUGH PULLING UP STATIONARY JUST S OF I-20. STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY MAINLY OVER DEEP
E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE WEAK H850 TROUGH EXPECTED TO
WASH OUT BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO...WITH A
LIGHT SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN/T APPEAR TO CHANGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NW FLOW DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
MAMOUTH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN/MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. THE
PROGS DO SUGGEST THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SLIDING S
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE SWINGS SE ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE DOESN/T APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST WIDELY SCT CONVECTION TUESDAY AS THE RESIDUAL
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SETTLES FARTHER S. AFTERWARDS...ANY CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AS THE WRN COUS RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W...WHILE THE BROADING TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES
DISPLACED FARTHER NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THUS...MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THE NRN ZONES...WHILE
SFC-H700 RIDGING BUILDS NW FROM THE NRN GULF INTO LA...WITH THE
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA...WHICH MAY SEE WEAK
SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUILD N TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 71 90 71 / 60 10 0 0
MLU 87 69 90 69 / 60 20 0 0
DEQ 87 65 88 66 / 5 0 0 0
TXK 88 67 89 69 / 20 5 0 0
ELD 86 66 89 67 / 30 5 0 0
TYR 88 70 90 71 / 60 10 0 0
GGG 88 70 90 71 / 60 10 0 0
LFK 89 73 92 73 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT NOON HAVE BEEN AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS NEARING 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...STORM
TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...AND THE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE LARGELY
BEHAVED. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND BASEMENTS IN
ALLEGHENY/LAWRENCE/WESTMORELAND COUNTIES EARLIER MEANT A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS PRUDENT.
THE WARM FRONT IS NEARING THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND PUSHING NORTH
AND TAKING THE STEADY RAIN WITH IT. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS WEST TO
THE THIN LINE ON RADAR INDICATING THE COLD FRONT. TO THIS
POINT...AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT STABLE...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN OHIO. SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE MORE CELLULAR
IN NATURE AND IF THEY CAN TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE BOUYANCY...HAVE
MORE THAN ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO DEVELOP INTO STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 500-1000J/KG SB CAPE
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
COLLOCATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA...NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...RESULTING IN SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW TAPS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR MOISTURE. STILL...PW
VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5" RESIDE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD TAP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH A BASE COAT
OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ALREADY IN THE AREAS SOILS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT RE-ENFORCES THE COOL AIR.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETRIOT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND
LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN.
THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY
WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIFTING TO MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO
VFR. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING IN WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE
HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING IFR CIGS CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AM WITH -RA/DZ.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME... LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SHARP RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS
TIME. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER DETROIT AND SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS OUR CWA HAS RECEIVED FROM ONE-QUARTER /0.25/ TO JUST
UNDER 2 /2.00/ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING
IN THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND TUCKER COUNTIES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-
029-031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT NOON HAVE BEEN AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS NEARING 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...STORM
TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...AND THE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE LARGELY
BEHAVED. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND BASEMENTS IN
ALLEGHENY/LAWRENCE/WESTMORELAND COUNTIES EARLIER MEANT A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS PRUDENT.
THE WARM FRONT IS NEARING THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND PUSHING NORTH
AND TAKING THE STEADY RAIN WITH IT. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS WEST TO
THE THIN LINE ON RADAR INDICATING THE COLD FRONT. TO THIS
POINT...AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT STABLE...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN OHIO. SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE MORE CELLULAR
IN NATURE AND IF THEY CAN TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE BOUYANCY...HAVE
MORE THAN ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO DEVELOP INTO STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 500-1000J/KG SB CAPE
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
COLLOCATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA...NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...RESULTING IN SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW TAPS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR MOISTURE. STILL...PW
VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5" RESIDE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD TAP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH A BASE COAT
OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ALREADY IN THE AREAS SOILS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT RE-ENFORCES THE COOL AIR.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS EARLY MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE A SHORT
REPRIEVE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIFTING TO MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO
VFR. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING IN WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE
HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING IFR CIGS CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AM WITH -RA/DZ.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME... LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SHARP RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS
TIME. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER DETROIT AND SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS OUR CWA HAS RECEIVED FROM ONE-QUARTER /0.25/ TO JUST
UNDER 2 /2.00/ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING
IN THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND TUCKER COUNTIES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-
029-031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
133 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 2000 TO 300 FOOT RANGE AND VISIBILITY AROUND
3 TO 5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF GRR. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF OF RAINFALL MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED... BUT MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
114 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL PRECIP REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THRU THE EVENING HOURS PER LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER
THICK. THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
THINNER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
...SHOWER OR TWO EASTERN UPPER OTHERWISE MIXED SKIES TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. 1008MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS BACK
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS ILLINOIS/
INDIANA/OHIO/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER/WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CIRROSTRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD...AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A RAIN SHIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE I-96 CORRIDOR.
INDIANA SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY TOWARD LAKE
ERIE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGS ON
RATHER STUBBORNLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVERNIGHT
AND SLOWS WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...LOOKS TO BE REAL CLOSE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH
DOWNWARD BRANCH OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM HELPING KEEP
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING TOO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP SCRAPING PARTS OF GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH
HEATING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. COLLIDING LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME SPOTTY HIGH BASED SHOWERS (MOST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA). OTHERWISE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
70S (COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WINDS). WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER TODAY THE FARTHER SOUTH
(ACTUALLY SOUTHEAST) ONE GOES TODAY (NORTHEAST GUSTS 20-30MPH).
TONIGHT...QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER IN PROXIMITY TO OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (AROUND 50
TO THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH HINTING AT SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
POTENTIAL OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. A THIN RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME OFF. MOST MODELS HAVE 600 TO 800
J/KG OF MUCAPE...JUST NEED THE TRIGGER (SOMETHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SEEMS TO LACK QUITE A BIT). AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OUT UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED AND MAKE SURE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. BESIDES THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDER...SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON/T ENTER THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS (TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH EACH
RUN) AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
A DRIER ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE OVERHEAD...RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PWAT
VALUES OF BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S....WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY/S...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOWS TREKKING THROUGH...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IN BETWEEN EACH EVENT. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF EACH
EVENT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN LOCKED
OVERHEAD. NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AOB 10
KTS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHERN EDGE OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TODAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS AS A RESULT FROM THUNDER BAY SOUTH TO SAGINAW BAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE NEARSHORE AREAS
PROBABLY INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE EASTERN U.P. WITH LAKE BREEZES
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER TAF SITES NEAR I-69.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BECOME IFR BY 16Z AT ALL OF THOSE TAF SITES.
IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY TOO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST FOR LAN AND JXN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE FOR MKG... SOLID VFR AND NOT NEARLY AS WINDY. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY THERE ONCE THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVES OUT BY MID MORNING. GRR WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD TILL AROUND 16Z THEN EXPECT SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
TOO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET FOR BOTH MKG AND GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF OF RAINFALL MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED... BUT MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL PRECIP REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THRU THE EVENING HOURS PER LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER
THICK. THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
THINNER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
...SHOWER OR TWO EASTERN UPPER OTHERWISE MIXED SKIES TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. 1008MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS BACK
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS ILLINOIS/
INDIANA/OHIO/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER/WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CIRROSTRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD...AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A RAIN SHIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE I-96 CORRIDOR.
INDIANA SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY TOWARD LAKE
ERIE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGS ON
RATHER STUBBORNLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVERNIGHT
AND SLOWS WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...LOOKS TO BE REAL CLOSE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH
DOWNWARD BRANCH OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM HELPING KEEP
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING TOO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP SCRAPING PARTS OF GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH
HEATING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. COLLIDING LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME SPOTTY HIGH BASED SHOWERS (MOST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA). OTHERWISE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
70S (COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WINDS). WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER TODAY THE FARTHER SOUTH
(ACTUALLY SOUTHEAST) ONE GOES TODAY (NORTHEAST GUSTS 20-30MPH).
TONIGHT...QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER IN PROXIMITY TO OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (AROUND 50
TO THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH HINTING AT SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
POTENTIAL OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. A THIN RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME OFF. MOST MODELS HAVE 600 TO 800
J/KG OF MUCAPE...JUST NEED THE TRIGGER (SOMETHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SEEMS TO LACK QUITE A BIT). AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OUT UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED AND MAKE SURE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. BESIDES THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDER...SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON/T ENTER THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS (TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH EACH
RUN) AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
A DRIER ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE OVERHEAD...RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PWAT
VALUES OF BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S....WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY/S...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOWS TREKKING THROUGH...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IN BETWEEN EACH EVENT. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF EACH
EVENT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHERN EDGE OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TODAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS AS A RESULT FROM THUNDER BAY SOUTH TO SAGINAW BAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE NEARSHORE AREAS
PROBABLY INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE EASTERN U.P. WITH LAKE BREEZES
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
742 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER TAF SITES NEAR I-69.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BECOME IFR BY 16Z AT ALL OF THOSE TAF SITES.
IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY TOO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST FOR LAN AND JXN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE FOR MKG... SOLID VFR AND NOT NEARLY AS WINDY. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY THERE ONCE THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVES OUT BY MID MORNING. GRR WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD TILL AROUND 16Z THEN EXPECT SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
TOO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET FOR BOTH MKG AND GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT... MAINLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MORE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS IS THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOME
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE I-94 TERMINALS...AND IS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO KLAN. SO FAR THIS HAS BEEN LIGHT RAIN OUT OF A
10K FT CIG. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE IN DOWN SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A BIT
AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. SOME MVFR IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.
WE ARE THINKING THAT THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE
LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD KJXN.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE N/NE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER
EAST. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT... MAINLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MORE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE... AN UNSEASONABLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICT HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (1.75 TO 2 INCH PW VALUES) POOLED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH IS HELPING FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION SUGGESTS A FEW DIFFERENT SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...BUT THESE SOURCES ARE NOT
REALLY IN PHASE. THE LATTER FACT WILL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WITH FINE DETAIL HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL
HIGH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE A SHOWER BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT. MAIN ALTERATIONS FROM PREVIOUS WERE TO RAISE POPS A
BIT IN EAST-CENTRAL MS (AND HIGH TEMPS CONVERSELY LOWERED A BIT
THERE) DUE TO HRRR INSISTENCE OF HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SINKS INTO THE HEART OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...NOTHING IN OUR MORNING SOUNDING
ANALYSIS POINTS TO MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS IN THE
HWO. CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE A BIT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
JUXTAPOSED IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
WATCHING THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY TRULY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED A GREAT DEAL BY THE POOR
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND VARIABLE
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION AND WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS AND TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION WHICH NECESSITATED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. I`M
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY LOSE STEAM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS WE CROSS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM. HOWEVER,
THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KTS, LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT ALONG THE 98
CORRIDOR. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
90 DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 60S
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. /DL/
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...COME MONDAY AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR CWA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DROPPING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SEND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL START OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BUT INCREASE TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY
MONDAY EVENING TO FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER
OUR SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE SEA BREEZE. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK OVER THE
CWA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS
RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 68 89 68 / 66 25 6 1
MERIDIAN 84 68 88 63 / 75 28 7 0
VICKSBURG 87 67 89 66 / 59 20 6 1
HATTIESBURG 89 72 91 68 / 70 48 18 10
NATCHEZ 87 69 86 69 / 69 39 10 10
GREENVILLE 86 66 89 66 / 46 9 0 0
GREENWOOD 84 65 87 65 / 53 11 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/19/DL/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Have added slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon based on
that there was upstream convection today, and forecast soundings
show that atmosphere will become unstable again today. Both the NAM
and GFS show a upper shortwave trough moving across the area during
the midday hours with the GFS developing some QPF over the area
during the afternoon. Even the HRRR supports this idea with it
breaking out isolated convection during the afternoon over most of
the CWA. This convection will die out quickly this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will remain below
normal even with mixing up to 850mb.
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
(Sunday and Monday)
A second, stronger trough will drop down in northwest upper flow on
Sunday night. There will be additional thunderstorms develop ahead
of it on Sunday as the atmosphere becomes unstable with MLCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A few isolated severe thunderstorms should
be possible over the area Sunday into Sunday evening and deep layer
shear of around 40kts. The trough will move off to the southeast
by Monday, though the atmosphere will still be unstable behind the
front today. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over part of the forecast area on Monday.
Temperatures these two days look slightly warmer as mixing will be
up into the 800-850mb range.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Upper pattern will remain amplified during this period with large
upper high in the western CONUS and mean trough in the east. This
will keep a meandering frontal boundary close to our area during
mid-late week. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Nly flow will continue for terminals this afternoon. CU field is
expected to continue to develop with much of the area becoming BKN
this afternoon. Isod to widely sct SHRA are expected to develop
this afternoon, but have not put in TAF attm due to low chance of
impacting a terminal. Otherwise, cu will dissipate this evening
leaving much of tonight clear. FG development is possible with
light and vrb winds. Winds will become swly Sun morning ahead of
an approaching system. Precip may reach UIN shortly before 18z
Sun, but have kept out of TAF attm due to low confidence in
timing.
Specifics for KSTL: Nly winds will persist this afternoon with cu
field expected to become BKN for much of this afternoon. Isod to
widely sct SHRA are expected to develop this afternoon. CU
expected to dissipate early this eve leaving overnight clear.
Winds will become swly Sun morning ahead of an approaching system.
Precip may reach terminal before 00z Mon, but have kept out of TAF
for now.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Have added slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon based on
that there was upstream convection today, and forecast soundings
show that atmosphere will become unstable again today. Both the NAM
and GFS show a upper shortwave trough moving across the area during
the midday hours with the GFS developing some QPF over the area
during the afternoon. Even the HRRR supports this idea with it
breaking out isolated convection during the afternoon over most of
the CWA. This convection will die out quickly this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will remain below
normal even with mixing up to 850mb.
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
(Sunday and Monday)
A second, stronger trough will drop down in northwest upper flow on
Sunday night. There will be additional thunderstorms develop ahead
of it on Sunday as the atmosphere becomes unstable with MLCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A few isolated severe thunderstorms should
be possible over the area Sunday into Sunday evening and deep layer
shear of around 40kts. The trough will move off to the southeast
by Monday, though the atmosphere will still be unstable behind the
front today. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over part of the forecast area on Monday.
Temperatures these two days look slightly warmer as mixing will be
up into the 800-850mb range.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Upper pattern will remain amplified during this period with large
upper high in the western CONUS and mean trough in the east. This
will keep a meandering frontal boundary close to our area during
mid-late week. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Fog will dissipate in UIN later this morning, while the MVFR
stratus deck in COU and the St Louis metro area advects south of
this area. There will be scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds developing across the area late this morning and afternoon
with isolated afternoon showers/storms possible. The diurnal
cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening. The northerly
surface winds will become light early this evening as the surface
low over western OH moves further east and the surface ridge over
the Plains moves southeastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR stratus cloud deck will advect south
of STL later this morning. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds will develop late this morning and afternoon. There may be
isolated showers and storms this afternoon, but will leave out of
the STL TAF for now due to sparse coverage expected. The cumulus
clouds should dissipate early this evening due to the loss of
daytime heating. The northerly surface wind will become light
early this evening, then become southwesterly by late Sunday
morning as the surface ridge shifts southeast of STL and a cold
front approaches.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
311 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Have added slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon based on
that there was upstream convection today, and forecast soundings
show that atmosphere will become unstable again today. Both the NAM
and GFS show a upper shortwave trough moving across the area during
the midday hours with the GFS developing some QPF over the area
during the afternoon. Even the HRRR supports this idea with it
breaking out isolated convection during the afternoon over most of
the CWA. This convection will die out quickly this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will remain below
normal even with mixing up to 850mb.
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
(Sunday and Monday)
A second, stronger trough will drop down in northwest upper flow on
Sunday night. There will be additional thunderstorms develop ahead
of it on Sunday as the atmosphere becomes unstable with MLCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A few isolated severe thunderstorms should
be possible over the area Sunday into Sunday evening and deep layer
shear of around 40kts. The trough will move off to the southeast
by Monday, though the atmosphere will still be unstable behind the
front today. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over part of the forecast area on Monday.
Temperatures these two days look slightly warmer as mixing will be
up into the 800-850mb range.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Upper pattern will remain amplified during this period with large
upper high in the western CONUS and mean trough in the east. This
will keep a meandering frontal boundary close to our area during
mid-late week. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Lingering light SHRAs continue to dsspt this evng. Main concern
for the overnight into Friday mrng will be the height and coverage
of stratus. Obs indicate it will start out around 1.5 kft with
pockets of high end IFR. KUIN and KCOU appear to be on the edge at
this point though with the low level wind advecting the stratus in
from IL...KUIN will likely be impacted before KCOU. Stratus should
begin to break up and transition to cu drng the late mrng/early
aftn and dsspt after 00Z. Winds will remain nthrly thru the day
becmng lght/vrb overnight as the sfc ridge axis passes.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR stratus should continue to advect in from IL overnight and
then transition to cu thru the day. Winds will remain nthrly thru
the day and then become lght/vrb sat night as the sfc ridge axis passes.
Miller
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE DID
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST EVERYWHERE THROUGH 06 UTC AS SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING IS QUICKLY CAUSING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. A LOW-END
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WAS MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST
IN THE BAKER AND EKALAKA AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...CELLS WHICH FORMED IN PART DUE
TO THAT WAVE IN NORTHEASTERN MT EARLIER THIS EVENING DIED AS THEY
MOVED SOUTHEAST...AND RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
AWAY FROM CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN MT OVERNIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING OCCURRING IS LOW. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BRINGING INTENSE HEAT TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AREA OF PV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CRAZIES/BELTS/SNOWIES AND DRIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAKING IT A LITTLE OFF THE TERRAIN. NOT MUCH
GOING ON FURTHER EAST AT THIS TIME BUT AM CURIOUS TO SEE IF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING EASTERN MT IS ENOUGH TO GET SOME CONVECTION
GOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATER AND THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. NOT SURE HOW IT WILL PAN
OUT BUT HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD TS IN OUR EAST BEGINNING AT
00Z.
HOTTEST DAY OF THE CURRENT HOT SPELL LOOKS TO BE TOMORROW AS RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE
PAC NW. WARMEST 700MB TEMPS OF +18C WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...
AND WE WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY SFC WIND...BUT MIXING OF THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OR NEAR 100F EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WE HAVE HAD YET IN 2015...AND A SOMEWHAT EARLY TIME OF
THE SEASON TO BE TALKING ABOUT TRIPLE DIGITS. MONSOONAL PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SPILL INTO OUR WEST BY LATE AFTN/EVNG
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR AN INCH AND RESULTING IN
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
BILLINGS. THIS HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBILITY OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SHORTWAVE FINALLY PASSES THROUGH...WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO SHOULD SEE ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BUT JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY PER THE MIXED NW WINDS AND STILL VERY
HIGH HEIGHTS. HAVE TWEAKED EXPECTED HIGHS UP JUST A BIT TO THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 90S.
BREEZY AND DRY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. SOMETHING TO
THINK ABOUT...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SOME LIGHTNING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
FLATTENING RIDGE WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MID WEEK.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT
WAS SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE CWA.
A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
FOR BYZ CWA LOOK MINIMAL.
ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
NEXT SATURDAY AND DRAG WITH IT A COLD FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
MODEL PW VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ARE ABOVE AN
INCH. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DOES EXIST
IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT AROUND KBHK FROM 06 TO 12 UTC THOUGH...AND
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCAL OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/100 070/096 064/089 062/085 061/088 064/091 062/085
10/U 22/T 10/B 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 056/100 059/094 054/091 053/086 053/089 054/091 053/086
12/T 32/T 10/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 11/B
HDN 059/102 065/098 060/091 061/087 060/090 062/094 061/087
10/G 22/T 10/B 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 063/099 069/097 063/087 061/084 059/087 061/092 061/084
10/U 12/T 10/B 11/B 11/U 11/U 12/T
4BQ 061/097 065/094 063/086 061/083 058/086 061/091 061/084
20/U 12/T 10/B 21/B 11/U 11/U 12/T
BHK 060/094 063/093 060/083 059/080 055/082 057/088 059/081
20/U 03/T 21/B 31/B 11/U 11/U 12/T
SHR 057/095 060/093 058/086 057/082 054/083 056/088 056/083
20/U 12/T 11/B 22/T 11/B 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
834 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED UP IN NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY IN EARLY
EVENING. BUT WHEN THEY MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THE
STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THEREFORE REDUCED COVERAGE AND LOWERED
POPS TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW
SMALL STORMS UPSTREAM...SO WILL NEED TO KEEPS SMALL POPS.
OTHERWISE FEW OTHER GRID EDITS ARE NEEDED. SCT
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON CONVECTION UPSTREAM...ONE OF WHICH CROSSED
INTO NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY FROM SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH EXIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST WHILE A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA RESIDE WEDGED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... EC MODEL THIS AFTERNOON
HAS TIPPED OFF WHAT SEVERAL OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR ARE MASKING IN THEIR SURFACE QPF FIELDS WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYERS. 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS SETTING ABOVE A 600-700 MB LAYER OF CAP. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND TRIGGERING SHOWERS. ONE DOES EXIST IN SEVERAL MODELS BUT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS IMPRECISE FOR THE MINOR MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... IN ADDITION THE DRY
SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY CHEW THROUGH ANY NEW RAIN AND
GENERATE MORE VIRGA THAT DROPS ON SURFACE. HENCE SPRINKLES IF
ANYTHING AT ALL.
MONDAY... RIDGE TOP WILL TRANSITION FROM IDAHO TO MONTANA FURTHER
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH A FEW
100S POSSIBLE IN THE MISSOURI BREAKS. SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND TOPPLES OVER INTO WYOMING A SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AXIS AND PUMPING IN COOL AIR
ALOFT AND GENERATING A MOIST GULF INFLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. AT THIS TIME ONLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS RE ANTICIPATED... BUT THIS COULD RAPIDLY CHANGE AS
NEW DATA IS INGESTED INTO UPPER AIR FOR THE MODELS. GAH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. JUST A FEW TWEAKS FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES. SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN
INVERTED TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP.
THE ONE ITEM NOT ADDRESSED IS THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME SORT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT RIGHT NOW
THINGS ARE NOT REALLY INDICATING THAT FOR THE FROPA ON SATURDAY
EVENING. THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...IT WOULDN`T SUPRISE
ME IF WE POPPED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BREEZY
WINDS IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. FRANSEN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
AN UPPER TROUGH STAYS TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NE
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
LACKING MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALSO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL BE BROUGHT BACK
EAST SO THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER IT WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
OR STRONG COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR.
ISOLATED STORMS THAT WERE NORTH OF KGGW QUICKLY DIMINISHED AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE TOWARD CYQR
(REGINA SASK) SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
621 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON CONVECTION UPSTREAM...ONE OF WHICH CROSSED
INTO NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY FROM SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH EXIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST WHILE A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA RESIDE WEDGED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... EC MODEL THIS AFTERNOON
HAS TIPPED OFF WHAT SEVERAL OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR ARE MASKING IN THEIR SURFACE QPF FIELDS WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYERS. 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS SETTING ABOVE A 600-700 MB LAYER OF CAP. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND TRIGGERING SHOWERS. ONE DOES EXIST IN SEVERAL MODELS BUT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS IMPRECISE FOR THE MINOR MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... IN ADDITION THE DRY
SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY CHEW THROUGH ANY NEW RAIN AND
GENERATE MORE VIRGA THAT DROPS ON SURFACE. HENCE SPRINKLES IF
ANYTHING AT ALL.
MONDAY... RIDGE TOP WILL TRANSITION FROM IDAHO TO MONTANA FURTHER
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH A FEW
100S POSSIBLE IN THE MISSOURI BREAKS. SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND TOPPLES OVER INTO WYOMING A SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AXIS AND PUMPING IN COOL AIR
ALOFT AND GENERATING A MOIST GULF INFLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. AT THIS TIME ONLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS RE ANTICIPATED... BUT THIS COULD RAPIDLY CHANGE AS
NEW DATA IS INGESTED INTO UPPER AIR FOR THE MODELS. GAH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. JUST A FEW TWEAKS FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES. SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN
INVERTED TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP.
THE ONE ITEM NOT ADDRESSED IS THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME SORT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT RIGHT NOW
THINGS ARE NOT REALLY INDICATING THAT FOR THE FROPA ON SATURDAY
EVENING. THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...IT WOULDN`T SUPRISE
ME IF WE POPPED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BREEZY
WINDS IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. FRANSEN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
AN UPPER TROUGH STAYS TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NE
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
LACKING MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALSO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL BE BROUGHT BACK
EAST SO THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER IT WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
OR STRONG COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONTANA
WITH A WEAK WAVES CROSSING EXTREME NE MONTANA AND NW ND. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP TODAY WITH SOME VIRGA IN
THE AREAS EAST/NORTH OF KOLF AND KSDY...BUT SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL NOCTURNAL KGGW EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
AS BOTH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GROW
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. SOME MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
THIS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATING SOME SPLOTCHY
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
OTHER THAN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A FAIRLY SEASONABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NERN CONUS. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MN AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING
SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NRN NEB. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WI/IA/IN AREA BY EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT PUSHING THROUGH ROUGHLY 2/3 OF
THE CWA BY 18Z...AND NORTHERLY WINDS CWA-WIDE BY EVENING. THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FRONT USHERS IN THOSE NRLY WINDS AND KEEPS DPTS ON THE NICER SIDE IN
THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOESNT BRING IN A NOTABLE COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK /MON AND TUES/
REMAIN DRY. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ON MONDAY...BUT A COUPLE SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK
TO BE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REGION...AND AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...SLIDE THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...CAUSING IT TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH S/SWRLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT/TUES AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THOSE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING LOWERS
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE FORECAST GOES...PLENTY OF THINGS TO IRON
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGHS WED THROUGH FRI REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 5K WILL BE NOTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KGRI
AND KEAR REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN. ON SUNDAY MORNING...A FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15KTS
BUT LITTLE OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AT MOST. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL A REINFORCING
PACIFIC INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
THE RAP SUGGESTED H750MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TODAY WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NO RETURN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WOULD SUPPORT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. POSSIBLY COOLER THOUGH GIVEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP LOWS DOWN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATES THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW THE CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INITIALLY AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD A
FEW DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FAR SW
NEB COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
A CHANCE FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE...THUS LIMITED CHANGE TO ONGOING LOW CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXPANDS AGAIN AND WAVES GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FORECASTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AT TERMINALS
KLBF AND KVTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND PROCEED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A LINE FROM VTN TO OGA BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY FOR FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES..NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL A REINFORCING
PACIFIC INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
THE RAP SUGGESTED H750MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TODAY WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NO RETURN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WOULD SUPPORT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. POSSIBLY COOLER THOUGH GIVEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP LOWS DOWN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATES THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW THE CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INITIALLY AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD A
FEW DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FAR SW
NEB COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
A CHANCE FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE...THUS LIMITED CHANGE TO ONGOING LOW CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXPANDS AGAIN AND WAVES GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRAW HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA INTO THE CNTL PLAINS TONIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
AS BOTH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GROW
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. SOME MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
THIS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATING SOME SPLOTCHY
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
OTHER THAN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A FAIRLY SEASONABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NERN CONUS. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MN AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING
SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NRN NEB. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WI/IA/IN AREA BY EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT PUSHING THROUGH ROUGHLY 2/3 OF
THE CWA BY 18Z...AND NORTHERLY WINDS CWA-WIDE BY EVENING. THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FRONT USHERS IN THOSE NRLY WINDS AND KEEPS DPTS ON THE NICER SIDE IN
THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOESNT BRING IN A NOTABLE COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK /MON AND TUES/
REMAIN DRY. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ON MONDAY...BUT A COUPLE SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK
TO BE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REGION...AND AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...SLIDE THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...CAUSING IT TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH S/SWRLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT/TUES AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THOSE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING LOWERS
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE FORECAST GOES...PLENTY OF THINGS TO IRON
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGHS WED THROUGH FRI REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL A REINFORCING
PACIFIC INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
THE RAP SUGGESTED H750MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TODAY WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NO RETURN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WOULD SUPPORT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. POSSIBLY COOLER THOUGH GIVEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP LOWS DOWN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATES THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW THE CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INITIALLY AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD A
FEW DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FAR SW
NEB COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
A CHANCE FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE...THUS LIMITED CHANGE TO ONGOING LOW CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXPANDS AGAIN AND WAVES GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...SO CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER
CIBOLA...VALENCIA AND SOCORRO COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS LCL IFR
CIGS ALONG EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MTNS INCLUDING KLVS. MODERATE
EAST CANYON WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND IMPACT
KABQ UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 09Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS SATURDAY WILL BE
FROM THE SW MTNS NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...950 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER 00Z
NAM12 NOT AS CONVINCING FOR KEEPING THE WATCH...INDICATING LESS
QPF. OTHERWISE TWEAKED THE EAST CANYON WINDS DOWNWARD WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING AND MOVING SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THANKS TO THE BACK DOOR FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE FROM TODAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY...BUT
WILL RAMP BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NUDGED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
MORNING...AND HAS BEEN STUCK THERE SINCE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT
MAY BE A FEW HOURS YET UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT SHOULD OCCUR BY 02-03Z.
WHEN THAT DOES OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO THE FRONTS EARLY ARRIVAL...IT HAS TAKEN A BIT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SINCE AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES HAVE NOT
YET REACHED THERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTH OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HRRR SHOWS STORMS
FURTHER EAST...BUT THE NAM MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS
AND STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THEM SLOWLY SOUTH...IF NOT SW. MOISTURE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON SATURDAY...AND FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. GIVEN HOW WARM IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
PENDING HOW MODELS TREND TONIGHT...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
THE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS PWATS RAISE TO ABOUT 1 INCH OR BETTER ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RELIEF STILL LOOKS TO COME ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR ROUNDS THE
UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOME. COULD SEE A FEW MORE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS THOUGH
VS MAINLY RAIN.
MODELS NOW SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT/WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...
RATHER THAN THURSDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEDNESDAY BEING A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAT THOUGHT YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO IN NW
FLOW. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES. STAY
TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW MOVING INCREASING FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE THE LEAST ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN
STORM ACTIVITY AND UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH MOISTURE LATER NEXT WEEK.
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS BECAUSE OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH/WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE
CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TIMING FOR THE GAP
WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR...INCREASING FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TONIGHT...THEN EXPANDING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY SATURDAY INCREASING WET THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHERLY FOR THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY TUESDAY....STORMS WILL DOWNTREND A BIT BECAUSE OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS DRIER TREND WILL NOT
ELIMINATE STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY THURSDAY
DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-523-526-528-529-532-533-537>539.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY
RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT
LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE
RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S.
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-SPECIFIED
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES IN MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT`S A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PROGGED TO IMPACT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CLARITY NOTED IN 12Z NWP
SUITE THAN PRIOR CYCLES REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. I`VE OPTED TO USE A HEAVY DOSE OF
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD.
DAILY DETAILS FOLLOW...
WEDNESDAY: LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION CARVES OUT MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ALLOWS FOR A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
HIGH PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL
TO SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER 12Z GFS, WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY LI`S OF -4 AND CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG, WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 35-40 KTS. SO THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL FOR
VT AND CLOSER TO LIKELY FOR NORTHER NY. SHOWN FORECAST QPF
WEDNESDAY UP TO A HALF INCH, BUT LOCALLY MORE IN CONVECTION.
DEPENDING ON SPEED THAT FRONT EXITS - WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE
SLOWER - SHOULD HAVE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE M50S/NEAR 60.
THURSDAY: GFS/EC REALLY ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO HOW THURSDAY
PLAYS OUT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WITH LARGER QPF
ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE EC SHOWS MORE SHEARED-OUT SHORTWAVE
FEATURES AND LOWER QPF. KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN
UNSETTLED HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...SOME
POSSIBLE FOG/MIST...AND LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE END. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN BOTH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. MOST IMPACTED WILL BE MSS/SLK/MPV
WHERE MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/PBG/RUT IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TOWARDS
AND AFTER 18Z. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT TURN
GENERALLY WEST 3-7 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOKING AT PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOCTURNAL RADIATION FOG ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
MPV/SLK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT
BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD ARE IN JEOPARDY.
AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD
FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36
INCHES SET IN 2013.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
5 PM 06/28.
AT 8.44 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.48 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN
1922.
AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON
LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BEGINS TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT IN MOIST AIR. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1-1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST PWATS LOCATED AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-09Z, INCREASING TO 50-
60KTS BETWEEN 09Z-21Z. MODEL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO MAGNITUDE OF
THIS JET IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INFLUENCE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM
0.5-1.5 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE RAINFALL TONIGHT
WILL BE THE HEAVIEST OF THIS EVENT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
HOWEVER, POTENTIAL MIXING IS QUESTIONABLE SINCE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING STEADY RAINFALL. BUFKIT MODELS SHOW THE JET
REMAINING ABOVE THE INVERSION. EXPECT SUMMITS TO EXPERIENCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGH GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET KEEPING SUMMITS BREEZY AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. AS THE 500MB LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE
AND THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS OVER THE REGION, MODELS INDICATE
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO MIX DOWN IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DRYING. BUT AS THE DRY
SLOW MOVES NORTHWARD, SO DOES THE JET. THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNSLOPING STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, MAXING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING, MORE LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN THE DRY
SLOT WITH AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH STILL AFFECTS
THE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. RIDGING EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT
THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY. EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS THROUGH
MONDAY MID DAY OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.3
INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND
60S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 4OS TO UPPER 50S. BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO ENCROACH UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED CONUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN IN THE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED, FEATURING LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BENEFIT FROM GOOD CONSISTENCY REGARDING WHAT SHOULD BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS
BEEN MIRED IN JUNE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS - COOLER WITH RESPECT TO THE HIGHS.
DAILY SPECIFICS TO FOLLOW...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: AN INITIALLY NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER GREAT LAKES REGION ASSUMES A NEGATIVELY TILT THIS PERIOD, AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRODUCES SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IN
REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS IN TERMS OF THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY, AS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
KEEPS INSTABILITY GENERALLY AT/BELOW 500 J/KG CAPE. HOWEVER, THIS
MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC ASCENT WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH, AND THERE IS 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER (0-6 KM AGL)
SHEAR PER GFS SOUNDINGS. PWATS DO INCREASE UP TO 1.25 INCHES
SUPPORTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WITH TAPERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
QPF AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF-INCH OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POST-FRONTAL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AS
1000-500MB THICKNESS TROUGH BUILDS OVER NORTH COUNTRY. THOUGH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY LATE, CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES (+6 TO +8C) SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: BRIEF RESPITE IN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS IN SFC AND ALOFT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE L/M70S THURSDAY AND M/U70S BY FRIDAY, THOUGH
RATHER COOL LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE U40S TO M/U50S.
THOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY TO PIN SPECIFIC DETAILS, A LOOK AT THE
FOURTH OF JULY DOESN`T LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR FIREWORKS WATCHING,
WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LATER ON
THE FOURTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR BUT WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GREATER AVIATION IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR
(PERIODS IFR CEILINGS) IN STEADY RAIN. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL.
VIS SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING/THICKENING WITH TIME, TRENDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. I`VE LARGELY USED RECENT HRRR AND BTV WRF OUTPUT TO
TIME WARM- FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO OUR TAF AIRSPACE. MOST TAFS SHOULD SEE RAIN STEADILY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY (3-6 SM) AFTER 02Z. BUFKIT RH PROGS SEEMS
TO BE UNDER DOING CEILINGS, AS THERE ARE ALREADY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHIELD. KEPT THIS
LINE OF THINKING FOR CEILING FCST. LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING STEADILY (UP TO 45 KTS) AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LLWS. WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, EXCEPT
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT RUT ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES.
WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD AND ASSOCIATED LLWS LIFTS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. CONTINUED MVFR BEHIND IT THOUGH, AS DRY-SLOT LIFTS
NORTH WITH A CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT RUT, WINDS ELSEWHERE
EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.
12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH TAPERING VFR SHOWERS
12-18Z MONDAY.
18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY OVER 2"
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED RISES, WITH SOME
STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS AND WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PARTICULAR
RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER,
SARANAC RIVER AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL EXPERIENCED FLOODING
RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE
ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER,
AND MOUNT MANSFIELD.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT
WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED
RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26.
AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922.
AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE, BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH
SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSTREAM RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY BEEN
LIGHT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND 6 HR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO HALF AN INCH. THERE
ARE SOME REPORTS IN CENTRAL PA BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN CURRENTLY AROUND SYRACUSE NY TO MOVE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS, ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BETWEEN 22Z-00Z. MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I
MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT
EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL
TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z
MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL
OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE`VE HOISTED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT IN THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS. SEE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN
ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN
CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,
AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS
THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND
WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH STRONG INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
500MB RIDGING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEATHER IS BRIEFLY QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18Z TUE THROUGH 03Z WED...AND WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY FIELDS. GIVEN ANTECENDENT MOIST
CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO ADD TO EXISTING HYDRO
CONCERNS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AND MOS GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE
DIURNAL COOLING AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY LOW-MID 70S WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. KEPT POPS 40-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DEVELOPING NW FLOW BEHIND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TRENDING DRIER THU/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR BUT WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GREATER AVIATION IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR
(PERIODS IFR CEILINGS) IN STEADY RAIN. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL.
VIS SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING/THICKENING WITH TIME, TRENDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. I`VE LARGELY USED RECENT HRRR AND BTV WRF OUTPUT
TO TIME WARM- FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO OUR TAF AIRSPACE. MOST TAFS SHOULD SEE RAIN STEADILY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY (3-6 SM) AFTER 02Z. BUFKIT RH PROGS SEEMS
TO BE UNDERDOING CEILINGS, AS THERE ARE ALREADY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHIELD. KEPT THIS
LINE OF THINKING FOR CEILING FCST. LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING STEADILY (UP TO 45 KTS) AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LLWS. WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, EXCEPT
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT RUT ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES.
WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD AND ASSOCIATED LLWS LIFTS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. CONTINUED MVFR BEHIND IT THOUGH, AS DRY-SLOT
LIFTS NORTH WITH A CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT RUT, WINDS
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.
12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH TAPERING VFR SHOWERS
12-18Z MONDAY.
18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN, WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES RANGING FROM 1-2" AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY OVER
2" ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED
RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS
AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS.
PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE
AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL
EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT
PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S
ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER,
AND MOUNT MANSFIELD.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT
WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED
RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26.
AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922.
AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE, BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH
SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND EVENING ACROSS VERMONT. FOR MORE ON
THIS READ THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I
MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT
EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL
TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z
MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL
OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE`VE HOISTED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT IN THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS. SEE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN
ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN
CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,
AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS
THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND
WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH STRONG INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
500MB RIDGING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEATHER IS BRIEFLY QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18Z TUE THROUGH 03Z WED...AND WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY FIELDS. GIVEN ANTECENDENT MOIST
CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO ADD TO EXISTING HYDRO
CONCERNS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AND MOS GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE
DIURNAL COOLING AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY LOW-MID 70S WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. KEPT POPS 40-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DEVELOPING NW FLOW BEHIND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TRENDING DRIER THU/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR BUT WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GREATER AVIATION IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR
(PERIODS IFR CEILINGS) IN STEADY RAIN. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL.
VIS SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING/THICKENING WITH TIME, TRENDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. I`VE LARGELY USED RECENT HRRR AND BTV WRF OUTPUT
TO TIME WARM- FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO OUR TAF AIRSPACE. MOST TAFS SHOULD SEE RAIN STEADILY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY (3-6 SM) AFTER 02Z. BUFKIT RH PROGS SEEMS
TO BE UNDERDOING CEILINGS, AS THERE ARE ALREADY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHIELD. KEPT THIS
LINE OF THINKING FOR CEILING FCST. LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING STEADILY (UP TO 45 KTS) AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LLWS. WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, EXCEPT
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT RUT ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES.
WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD AND ASSOCIATED LLWS LIFTS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. CONTINUED MVFR BEHIND IT THOUGH, AS DRY-SLOT
LIFTS NORTH WITH A CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT RUT, WINDS
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.
12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH TAPERING VFR SHOWERS
12-18Z MONDAY.
18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN, WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES RANGING FROM 1-2" AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY OVER
2" ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED
RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS
AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS.
PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE
AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL
EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT
PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S
ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER,
AND MOUNT MANSFIELD.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT
WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED
RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26.
AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922.
AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE HUMID DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS ONGOING AND TRACKING ENE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH REMNANT MCV
CIRCULATIONS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS. THE SEA-BREEZE
INTERACTIONS MAY HELP SPIKE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND A SPIN-UP MESO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES STREWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SUPPORT STRENGTHENS AND THIS REMAINS FAVORED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
MODELS SHOW AS UPPER WINDS PARALLEL THE FRONT...CONVECTION MAY
WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...LOW AND MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT. THUS ANY STORMS THAT ARE
MAINTAINED TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SWIFT FORWARD MOTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARSHORE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET (200MB) INTENSIFIES THE
PUSH FOR THE FRONT BECOMES NON EXISTENT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SIGNAL. WILL WAIT FOR MORE CERTAINTY
BEFORE ADDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT I DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WONDERFUL DAY MONDAY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND MIXING DOWN AT MAX
HEATING. CERTAINLY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERALL I TWEAKED TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY. THE HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS BELOW 90
SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS
WONT BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND
ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION
WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY
FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE
TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING
DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING
WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE
LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A BIT OF A LULL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS WILL GIVE
US BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT HAVE
THAT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THINK WE WILL GET ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...CERTAINLY WEST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLAPPING FOR SW 15-25
KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KT TONIGHT. ANY TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
OBTAIN RADAR UPDATES BEFORE HEADING OUT. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS SEAS 4-7
FEET OVERNIGHT AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE...AND SE OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS
COMPOSED OF SW WAVES 4-5 FEET EVERY 6 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2
FEET IN 8-9 SECONDS INTERVALS. IN AND NEAR TSTMS A HEAVY CHOP
WOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP ON THE WATERS. SW-W WINDS EARLY SUNDAY
EXPECTED 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL NEVER REALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE
WATERS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY ON THE ORDER OF 15-
20 KNOTS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE WINDS BEGIN A LONG DECENT DOWN TO TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JETTING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS
PERSIST. BY MONDAY THE SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS
INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT
BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS
INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3
FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM
THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE HUMID DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM SATURDAY...UPSTREAM MCV GROUPINGS WERE SETTING OFF
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WESTWARD INTO EAST
GEORGIA. LOW-ANGLE EARLY MORNING SUNLIGHT SHOWS WELL THE EMBEDDED
CUMULUS TOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSES. VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS
THESE PERTURBATIONS ARE NOW GETTING PICKED UP BY INCREASING SW
SHEAR. OFF-SETTING THIS FACTOR HOWEVER IS DISPLAYED WELL IN VSBL
ANIMATIONS THE POCKETS OF EARLY SUN WARMING THE GROUND. THE MCV
FAMILY WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN POP VALUES INTO MIDDAY...AS THE
FIRST SWIRL TRAVERSES MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN ANOTHER ON THE
HEELS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS FADING WITH THE
PERTURBATIONS...INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS FILL IN ALONG IT.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TIED TO THE LINE OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WHERE AN SPC ENHANCED RISK IS POSTED FOR THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WHICH SLOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR TO THE BEACHES...CLEARING TO
SEA THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SPRING-LIKE COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
NOW...UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS SLOWER AND LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA DURING
EARLY SUNDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS NOW PROGGED TO STALL ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST...TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE...AND WILL NOT REALLY PUSH AWAY AND
WASH OUT UNTIL A SECONDARY VORT SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS/SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/CLOUDS POSSIBLY INCREASING BACK TO
THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SECONDARY VORT TRIES TO SPAWN WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
WPC GRAPHICS...AND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
HUMID...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POP AND TEMP BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS W/SW AND EVEN MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS COOL
AND DRY AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO THE UPR 80S
WELL INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OFFSHORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL
ADVECTION...ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY BEEN. THIS WILL ALLOW MINS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND
ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION
WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY
FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE
TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING
DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING
WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE
LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A BIT OF A LULL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS WILL GIVE
US BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT HAVE
THAT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THINK WE WILL GET ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...CERTAINLY WEST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM SATURDAY...S TO SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 FT ATTM WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT BY TONIGHT. AN SCA IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE
FORECAST AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. SEA
SPECTRUM DOMINATED BY SW WAVES 3-4 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS TODAY AND SW
WAVES 4-6 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS TONIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO OBTAIN A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING OUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND THEN STALL JUST INLAND OR RIGHT ALONG THE COAST MUCH OF
SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WKND...ALTHOUGH A VERY BRIEF TURN TO THE NORTH
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHORT AND WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS...AS SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY...WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 15-20 KTS...FALLING TO 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR A FEW 6 FT
SEAS LEFTOVER FROM SATURDAY...BUT THESE WILL FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND BECOME 3-4 FT BY MONDAY WITH THE SW WIND CHOP
REMAINING PREDOMINANT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS
INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT
BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS
INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3
FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM
THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF 19Z THE FRONT
HAD CROSSED ROLLA...BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
REMAIN ON WESTERN FLANK OF 110KT JET STREAK...IN LESS FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A LITTLE CIN IN PLACE AS
OF 19Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WAS ALSO IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA HOWEVER
WHICH MAY BE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS
HANDLED THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL...ALTHOUGH IT HAS OVERDONE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST HAD CONF CALL WITH SPC AND WILL ISSUE TORNADO
WATCH FOR OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF FOSTER...STUTSMAN...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND LIKELY STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.
IT IS A MINI PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE
WAVES WILL BE KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED
THE PERIOD WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS
NOT REALISTIC.
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING THE STATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONTINUED VCTS FOR KBIS AND KJMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE NEAR KJMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS OVER KIDDER COUNTY. LATEST SPC UPDATE TO DAY 1 HAS PUT THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ENHANCED CATEGORY FOR SEVERE...BUT NO
CHANGES OVER OUR AREA WITH SLIGHT RISK AREA CLIPPING OUR FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ROLETTE COUNTY HAVE EXITED THAT AREA OVER
THE LAST HOUR. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS...REMOVED LOW POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AS OF 14Z. 12Z NAM IS COMING IN
NOW AND APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN. MAIN ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 18Z. NAM/GFS KEEP BEST COVERAGE ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF 110KT JET STREAK...MAINLY TO OUR EAST...THAT IS NOSING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 1000+
J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION AT KJMS UNTIL SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. ALSO HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KBIS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ROLETTE COUNTY HAVE EXITED THAT AREA OVER
THE LAST HOUR. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS...REMOVED LOW POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AS OF 14Z. 12Z NAM IS COMING IN
NOW AND APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN. MAIN ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 18Z. NAM/GFS KEEP BEST COVERAGE ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF 110KT JET STREAK...MAINLY TO OUR EAST...THAT IS NOSING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 1000+
J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION AT KJMS UNTIL SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. ALSO HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KBIS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION AT KJMS UNTIL SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. ALSO HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KBIS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN AREA/LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM CARTWRIGHT IN MCKENZIE COUNTY...NORTHEAST TO
KENMARE AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
AREA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-3000
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT. NO GLOBAL OR HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL IS ACCURATELY HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE TO FORECAST THIS AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH CURRENT SHORTWAVE SUGGESTS PERIODS
OF WEAKENING/DIMINISHING OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT ALSO NEW
ISOLATED CELLS RANDOMLY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. THIS IS WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE.
FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AREA TO
NEAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL ADJUST IF
NECESSARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
REMOVED POPS SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA BACK NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALL EVENING AS THEY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO LEFT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SCALED BACK ON POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONFINED POPS TO THE MORE DENSE CU FIELDS...SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...ALSO WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE AT. OTHERWISE UPDATES WERE
MINOR FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AT KBIS AND KJMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SATURDAY
WITH VSBYS AT/AROUND 5SM. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A
THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY
THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS MENTION FOR NOW AT KJMS WITH THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS DRY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
910 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME A FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU HAS
NOW MADE ITS WAY INTO NW PA. LAST FEW SHRA APPEAR TO JUST BE IN
EASTERN ERIE CO PA. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN POPS AND CLOUDS IN NW
PA THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLIGHT CHC FOR THE SNOWBELT
LATER TONIGHT AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING SE
INTO THE AREA.
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM TOMORROW`S SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
THE WEST. CURRENT SHRA OVER INDIANA SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE WEST BUT ANOTHER PUSH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE NIGHT. A FEW SHRA
COULD REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGE AROUND DAYBREAK SO WILL KEEP
A SMALL CHC POP THERE FOR THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INLAND PART OF THE EASTERN SNOWBELT WHERE LOWER 50S SHOULD
BE COMMON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WEST WILL PROBABLY HOLD LOWS IN A 58 TO 60 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WE DID
CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW FLOODING BUT SINCE WE THINK THE QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER HALF AN INCH WE HELD OFF FOR NOW. IF THIS CONVECTION
CHARGES TOWARD THE AREA STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED.
AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY EVENING IT WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
CENTRAL OHIO BUT EVEN THAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS BOUNDARY
AND A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL THEN BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FR
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT COULD VARY SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WISH THE HOLIDAY FORECAST WAS CUT AND DRY...BUT WITH THE EASTERN
U.S. MAINTAINING A BROAD TROUGH...WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE SIDED TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION TO TRY AND
PINPOINT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY BE WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
UNSURE WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS HERE SO LINGERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THROUGH ENS MEAN HAS A RIDGE BEGINNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KERI ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ALTHOUGH DID BRING IN MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG INLAND EAST
TOWARDS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z.
EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH KFDY/KTOL 12-15Z TIME FRAME TAKING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY REACHING KMFD 16-20Z. HELD OFF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCLE
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALSO KEPT KCAK...KYNG AND KERI VFR THROUGH 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE HAD TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING FOR
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. BUOY OFF OF CLEVELAND AND REPORTS OFF OF ERIE
PA STILL INDICATE 4 TO 5 FOOTERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SO WIND/WAVES WILL SETTLE. NEXT SYSTEMS TRACK OF THE
LOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EXACT
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND ON THE LAKE. HAVE TAKEN THE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AND INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A
STIFF ESE FLOW FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT
MORE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND THEREFORE WOULD YIELD
DIFFERENT WIND/WAVES ON THE LAKE. GRADIENT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER FOR
MID WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE OF NO ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT
CLEANLY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE UNTIL MAYBE THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
441 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR CLEVELAND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PRESSING EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER WEST HEAVY WRAP AROUND
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE TRIMMED THE FLOOD WATCH REMOVING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY.
HEAVY RAIN STILL LIKELY FOR NW OH IN THE WRAP AROUND AND ACROSS
THE EAST WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION. IN BETWEEN RUNOFF ACROSS FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO STILL CAUSING RISES. SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THE LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT JUST REACHING NW PA BY
MORNING. SO AREAS THAT HAVE A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING WILL SEE
SHOWERS RETURN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RAINFALL IN NW OHIO WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. SO WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES STILL REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THE RAIN WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS NW OHIO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
TOWARD LATE EVENING. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ON THE LAKE FROM THE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS.
PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR AS OF 20Z/4P:
TOLEDO (TOL) 2.12
TOLEDO (TDZ) 2.55
CLEVELAND 2.76
YOUNGSTOWN 1.43
ERIE PA 1.18
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KCLE MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT
TAF FORECAST. VARIABLE CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
MUCH OF THE IFR OCCURRING IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
HAVE BEEN THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT ON
THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HAVE A SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...MAINLY FOR THE KTOL AREA.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IFR INTO MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. NON VFR
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AS GALES
PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE INDICATE THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND PORTIONS OF LUCAS
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING
FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO
RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL
KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GOING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>019-
022-023-033-089.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-007-009.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>145-162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
359 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL EXTEND THE
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF OUR BASIN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS EXTENSION IS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF EXPECTED VERY WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
THE HOT, UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT ANY LOCATION WITHIN OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR
AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE AREA. ON MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
OVER OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BASIN WHERE TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE PACNW ON TUESDAY, THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL, BUT NOT AS WARM THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NEVADA. 90
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE AREAS WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS SOMEWHAT EAST NEXT WEEKEND IT WILL RETAIN A FIRM GRIP ON OUR
AREAS WEATHER AS AFTN HIGH TEMPS REMAIN HOT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL NEAR TAF SITES KPDT...KALW...
KPSC AND ALSO KRDM AND KBDN THROUGH 04Z THAT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
TOWARD 5K BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AFTER 04Z TSRA COULD
ALSO APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AND LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD 5K WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TAF SITE KDLS UNTIL 06S. OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALL ZONES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS...THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE
OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE DEEPEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON WHERE A LAL OF 4 IS EXPECTED. AREAS EAST
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF MOUNT ADAMS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL OREGON
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING.
DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS PATH...I
EXTENDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN
ZONES. THOSE BATTLING THE SOUTHEAST BENTON COMPLEX FIRE SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. POST
FRONTAL WINDS THIS EVENING AND ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA (20-30 MPH IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY). ANY NEW FIRE STARTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD AS WINDS INCREASE. WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 72 98 66 97 / 40 20 10 0
ALW 78 99 71 98 / 30 20 10 0
PSC 76 103 66 101 / 30 20 10 0
YKM 77 97 66 97 / 30 20 10 0
HRI 75 101 64 100 / 40 20 10 0
ELN 74 94 65 96 / 30 20 10 0
RDM 61 94 54 95 / 50 10 10 10
LGD 68 93 58 92 / 30 30 20 10
GCD 63 96 56 97 / 30 20 20 10
DLS 73 96 66 98 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-639-
640.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ641-642-644.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-505.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ643-645.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ044-507.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-681.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ641-675.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ026>029.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/97/97/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG IN NORTHERN JACKSON AND A
GOOD PORTION OF DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY WITH LIFTED INDICIES
CLOSE TO -4. THE INSTABILITY IS THERE, BUT SO FAR NO TRIGGER. HENCE
WHY WE HAVE NOT SEE ANY ACTION SO FAR. HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR
REFLECTIVITY MODELS IS SHOWING RETURNS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT
EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY EAST. THIS MODEL
ACTUALLY PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH (PER THE RAP SOLUTION). THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE VISIBLE IMAGE IS ALREADY SHOWING CU
STARTING TO DEVELOP.
IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY, BUT THE ONLY THING THAT COULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOUD COVER.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT, IT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME 850 LI`S
WILL GET INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY. SO THERE IS CONCERN WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PARTS OF
JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...CURRY...COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY...CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS
IN THESE AREAS. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING UP. SO THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER TYPICALLY WHEN WE GET
NOCTURNAL STORMS, THEY NORMALLY PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. OF
NOTE THE 700-500MB WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25-30 KTS,
SO THEY WILL BE FASTER MOVING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS. IT WILL STILL BE TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOT ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...THEREFORE
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT WHICH POINT THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL END
UP COOLER, MAINLY AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHRINK AND BE MAINLY CONFINED TO KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE ACTION
TUESDAY AS WE GET A MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA, SO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WE`LL
HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE BUILDING WESTWARD BEYOND TUESDAY WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING WITH TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES LIKELY AGAIN FOR
MANY WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON AND NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE
PATTERN IS DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE WERE EXPERIENCING NOW. FOR ONE THE
HIGHEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER THERE`S SOME INDICATIONS WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. STAY TUNED. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AT THE COAST...THEN MARINE STRATUS
RETURNS WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2-3Z AND LASTING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TONIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MAINLY WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS REDEVELOPING. SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 245 PM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. PROFILES OVER THE EAST SIDE ARE
STILL VERY DRY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 17-
20KFT, SO STORMS THAT FORM THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE DRY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE SISKIYOUS, UP ALONG THE CASCADES, AND OVER TO THE EAST
SIDE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECT SOME
STORMS TO BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE WEST SIDE TOO.
SINCE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WETTER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...KEEPING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS TO THE
EAST SIDE.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ616-617-619>625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
925 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
CLOUDS MOVING NORTH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS
CLEARING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE MOVING NORTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE AT MEDFORD IS
ALREADY 81 DEGREES WITH A DEWPOINT OF 59. IN FACT DEWPOINTS ARE
HIGHER OVER MOST LOCATIONS, SO THERE IS MORE JUICE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. ALSO THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS PW VALUE OF 1.31
INCHES WITH A FAIRLY MOST LAYER FROM AROUND 550 TO 330 MB. THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS
CENTERED FROM KLAMATH COUNTY INTO EASTERN JACKSON AND NORTH INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. SO FAR THE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN
DOUGLAS COUNTY, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OF NOTE
LOOKING AT THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES INCREASING
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON IN THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE
IN CIN VALUES. ALSO SURFACE BASED LI`S ARE -4 C IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AND
CLEARING WILL DEVELOP THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MOSTLY WITH THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION, OTHERWISE THE THINKING MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN COOS/DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE THIS MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. IFR CIGS PROBABLY RETURN TO THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MAINLY WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS REDEVELOPING. SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...A SHORT
WAVE OFFSHORE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THERE CAN STILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, BUT THESE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE A BIT OF A BREAK ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE SOME TIME TO RE-LOAD. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR STRONG HEATING IN MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 100S IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE EAST SIDE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. PROFILES OVER THE EAST SIDE ARE STILL VERY DRY IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 17-20KFT, SO STORMS THAT FORM
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE DRY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE SISKIYOUS, UP ALONG THE CASCADES, AND OVER TO THE EAST
SIDE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECT SOME
STORMS TO BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE WEST SIDE TOO.
SINCE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WETTER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. IT MAY TAKE
ALL DAY TO DO THIS, SO THE HEADLINES FOR THE WEST SIDE MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON, IF NOT EARLY EVENING. WE`LL
MAINTAIN THE HEADLINES AS IS THOUGH FOR NOW AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN OUR UNSETTLED
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECORD HEAT YESTERDAY. MEDFORD SET A NEW
RECORD OF 107, MOUNT SHASTA CITY 99...KLAMATH FALLS 98...ALTURAS
WITH 101...AND MONTAGUE TIED WITH 104.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ARE
FEEDING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WAS ABOUT 250 LIGHTNING STRIKES...CONCENTRATED OVER
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW STRIKES HERE AND THERE, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUBSIDED AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY...HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY SO WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE HOLDING
OFF ON SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN LESS CLOUDS AND MORE SUN
FILTERING THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECASTED. ON THE
OTHER HAND, MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. EITHER WAY, IT WILL STILL BE HOT, SO
STUCK WITH THE ORIGINAL IDEA AND ONLY TWEAKED TEMPERATURES SOME.
AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO FOR TODAY...THE LACK OF A SHORTWAVE UNTIL
THIS LATER AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LATE EVENING...COULD MEAN THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WON`T KICK UP UNTIL THEN. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE, ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF ENERGY TO TAP INTO. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE MOISTURE INVOLVED SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE WET. THERE ARE STILL SOME
SOUNDING PROFILES ON THE EAST SIDE SHOWING THE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 17KFT. THIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE DRY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY, NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH NUDGES CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COOLING
TEMPERATURES SOME AND PUSHING THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL", THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THIS "COOLING" WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND RETURN TO THE UPPER 90`S EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
TUESDAY. -MND
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH VERY WET PRE- EXISTING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THE SHIELD OF STEADY MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND
BECOME BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG /NEARLY 5 SIGMA/ LLVL SERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
AN APPROX 4-5 HOUR WINDOW /FROM 21Z TDY - 02Z SUN/ OF SEVERE TSRA
POTENTIAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAYER OF PENN COUNTIES
/MAINLY SOMERSET COUNTY/ AND POINTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81...WHERE
12Z OPER MODELS AND HOURLY RUNS OF HRRR INDICATE THE OVERLAP OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SREF CAPE WITH THE DEPARTING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS LLJ. TORNADO WATCH 364 RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATL PIEDMONT AND VA COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WOULD/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SECOND WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SCENT AND SERN PENN IN A
FEW HOURS...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOSE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY SERLY GRADIENT WIND /30-40 MPH ON THE
RIDGES/ HAS ALREADY CAUSED SPORADIC DOWNED TREES. ANY STRONGER
TSRA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS IN SOUTHERN PENN WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ISSUE.
SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL SHOWERS...BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MUCH
LIGHTER/VARIABLE WIND AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE/OCCLUDED FRONT
DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE PRECIPITOUS WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER
CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
MODERATED BY A LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL EMANATE FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER AS THESE TROUGHS ARE SHALLOWER...LESS MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER
ACCORDINGLY. NONETHELESS...THIS SERIES OF PERTERBATIONS WILL
PROLONG THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR WITH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS WHAT HAS NOW
TRANSITIONED INTO SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CLEVELAND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AND DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE FURTHER TO IFR-LIFR LATE TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY AT KBFD AND KJST/ AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN THE 2-3KFT AGL LAYER WILL LEAD
TO LLWS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON-THU...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH VERY WET PRE- EXISTING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THE SHIELD OF STEADY MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND
BECOME BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG /NEARLY 5 SIGMA/ LLVL SERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
AN APPROX 4-5 HOUR WINDOW /FROM 21Z TDY - 02Z SUN/ OF SEVERE TSRA
POTENTIAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAYER OF PENN COUNTIES
/MAINLY SOMERSET COUNTY/ AND POINTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81...WHERE
12Z OPER MODELS AND HOURLY RUNS OF HRRR INDICATE THE OVERLAP OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SREF CAPE WITH THE DEPARTING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS LLJ. TORNADO WATCH 364 RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATL PIEDMONT AND VA COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WOULD/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SECOND WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SCENT AND SERN PENN IN A
FEW HOURS...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOSE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY SERLY GRADIENT WIND /30-40 MPH ON THE
RIDGES/ HAS ALREADY CAUSED SPORADIC DOWNED TREES. ANY STRONGER
TSRA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS IN SOUTHERN PENN WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ISSUE.
SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL SHOWERS...BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MUCH
LIGHTER/VARIABLE WIND AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE/OCCLUDED FRONT
DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE PRECIPITOUS WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER
CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
MODERATED BY A LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL EMANATE FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER AS THESE TROUGHS ARE SHALLOWER...LESS MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER
ACCORDINGLY. NONETHELESS...THIS SERIES OF PERTERBATIONS WILL
PROLONG THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS...WHILE THE SCENT AND CENTRAL MTNS SEE
VSBYS AND CIGS LIFT A BIT TO MVFR OR IFR IN MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...AND ITS SWD TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE MAY BE THIS BRIEF UPTICK IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN 21Z
SAT-01Z SUN...CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE FURTHER TO
IFR-LIFR LATE TONIGHT /ESPECIALLY AT KBFD AND KJST/ AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS.
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN THE 2-3KFT AGL LAYER WILL LEAD
TO LLWS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON-THU...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH VERY WET PRE- EXISTING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THE SHIELD OF STEADY MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND
BECOME BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG /NEARLY 5 SIGMA/ LLVL SERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
AN APPROX 4-5 HOUR WINDOW /FROM 21Z TDY - 02Z SUN/ OF SEVERE TSRA
POTENTIAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAYER OF PENN COUNTIES
/MAINLY SOMERSET COUNTY/ AND POINTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81...WHERE
12Z OPER MODELS AND HOURLY RUNS OF HRRR INDICATE THE OVERLAP OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SREF CAPE WITH THE DEPARTING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS LLJ. TORNADO WATCH 364 RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATL PIEDMONT AND VA COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WOULD/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SECOND WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SCENT AND SERN PENN IN A
FEW HOURS...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOSE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY SERLY GRADIENT WIND /30-40 MPH ON THE
RIDGES/ HAS ALREADY CAUSED SPORADIC DOWNED TREES. ANY STRONGER
TSRA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS IN SOUTHERN PENN WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ISSUE.
SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL SHOWERS...BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MUCH
LIGHTER/VARIABLE WIND AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE/OCCLUDED FRONT
DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
DOWNSTREAM OF A MIGRATORY AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
HOT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH EACH WAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL PACK MUCH LESS OF A
PUNCH COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT NONETHELESS IT WILL PROLONG THE PERSISTENT
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR
SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS...WHILE THE SCENT AND CENTRAL MTNS SEE
VSBYS AND CIGS LIFT A BIT TO MVFR OR IFR IN MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...AND ITS SWD TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE MAY BE THIS BRIEF UPTICK IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN 21Z
SAT-01Z SUN...CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE FURTHER TO
IFR-LIFR LATE TONIGHT /ESPECIALLY AT KBFD AND KJST/ AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS.
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN THE 2-3KFT AGL LAYER WILL LEAD
TO LLWS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON-THU...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SLIGHLY FURTHER SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY
BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE MAINTAINING THE COMPLEX MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL OUT SO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO FALL APART BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH MISSOURI SO THERE WILL
BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ARS
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (29/00Z-30/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AT 6-10 KTS TONIGHT FOR KMEM... KMKL... AND KJBR. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NW OF THE REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT THE EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
KMKL. ADDED VCSH AT 6Z FOR KMKL DUE TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL OUT SO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO FALL APART BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH MISSOURI SO THERE WILL
BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ARS
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (29/00Z-30/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AT 6-10 KTS TONIGHT FOR KMEM... KMKL... AND KJBR. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NW OF THE REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT THE EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
KMKL. ADDED VCSH AT 6Z FOR KMKL DUE TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE ACROSS OH WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSING TN THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT
GRASP ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AND SHOWS
THIS AREA MOVING NE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM 10Z TO 16Z. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER JET MOVES
INTO KY AND PROVIDES SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH PROVIDES SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY
WIND...LOOKS LOW BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITS A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. RAPID
MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL END ALL PRECIP CHANCES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOON AFTER.
.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. A SECONDARY TROUGH FORMS
BEHIND THE QUICKLY EXITING LOW, AND BRINGS WITH IT ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ONE DOESN`T LOOK TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH,
BUT WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO MID-WEEK.
THEN OUR SECOND SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT AS MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES. WHEREVER THIS SYSTEM DECIDES TO TRACK NEAR WILL BE IN
FOR A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY AT THIS TIME, NO DAYS JUMP OUT
AS HAVING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT... BUT AGAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE
MAKES THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. ONE THREAT
THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ANY
FLOODING LATE IN THE WEEK IF THESE FIRST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AT, OR JUST BELOW, NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 63 87 62 / 90 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 60 82 60 / 90 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 59 84 58 / 90 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 58 80 54 / 90 40 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR SWEETWATER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRT WILL SEE SOME SHRA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT
AFFECT CIGS/VIS. LATER THIS EVENING MORE TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH AND ALL CONVECTION ENDED BY AROUND 06Z. THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL FORM IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RETRENDED THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO EDITED POPS SLIGHTLY DROPPING CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING BY ABOUT 10% DUE TO DECREASED COVERAGE
AND MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH. HAVE MOVED THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A MESO LOW/CIRCULATION THAT CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS MAY ENHANCE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
THERE.
DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY
INCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG AN
OZONA TO ABILENE TO GAINESVILLE LINE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT
ALREADY KICKED OFF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WITH MORE
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND WACO. MOST OF
THE MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITH POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINING. THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF BOTH SHOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
HEATING. DECENT RAIN CHANCES RUN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES AND THE FRONT ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS CONTINUE A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. CAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES
DURING THE WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE. THE
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRIES TO CONNECT WITH THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
WOULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF GOES BACK
TO BEING SLOWER ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 89 72 90 72 / 60 30 10 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 89 71 90 71 / 50 30 10 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 89 72 / 60 40 20 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 89 70 / 40 10 10 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 91 73 93 74 / 40 30 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 90 72 / 60 30 20 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 89 72 / 60 40 20 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 89 73 89 73 / 60 50 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 73 90 73 / 60 50 20 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 90 73 / 60 40 20 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RETRENDED THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO EDITED POPS SLIGHTLY DROPPING CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING BY ABOUT 10% DUE TO DECREASED COVERAGE
AND MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH. HAVE MOVED THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A MESO LOW/CIRCULATION THAT CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS MAY ENHANCE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
THERE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY
INCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG AN
OZONA TO ABILENE TO GAINESVILLE LINE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT
ALREADY KICKED OFF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WITH MORE
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND WACO. MOST OF
THE MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITH POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINING. THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF BOTH SHOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
HEATING. DECENT RAIN CHANCES RUN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH...BUT IS SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT. WILL BUMP
UP THE BEGINNING OF VCTS AND TEMPO -TSRA FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO SITES 2-3 HOURS. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE ONSET OF CONVECTION CHANCES...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE AMENDED LATER IN THE DAY AS SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES AND THE FRONT ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS CONTINUE A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. CAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES
DURING THE WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE. THE
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRIES TO CONNECT WITH THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
WOULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF GOES BACK
TO BEING SLOWER ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 72 90 71 91 / 60 50 30 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 89 71 91 / 60 50 30 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 91 / 60 50 40 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 89 70 91 / 50 40 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 92 73 94 / 60 40 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 71 89 71 91 / 60 30 20 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 89 71 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 72 90 / 60 50 40 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 73 89 73 90 / 50 50 40 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 89 73 91 / 60 50 40 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 91 / 50 50 40 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ACROSS THE REGION KFCX 88D RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE MOST PLENTIFUL. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOONE NC...BLACKSBURG VA...LEWISBURG
WV LINE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE REACHED CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE...THERE THE TREND WILL BE FOR
STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS REGION...AND ALSO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATIONS WAS OCCURRING. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE TREND...THERE ALSO WILL BE TREND FOR FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE THREE AREAS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...
OUR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING REFLECT AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS...OR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A GENEROUS AREA HAS JUST EXITED THE
NORTH...AND ANOTHER REGION IS ABOUT TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...UNTIL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MOIST AND PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS RANGE FROM HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR...AND THAT TREND ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MAY CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND START TO INCREASE. ANTICIPATE A WINTER-LIKE
UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING CIGS INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT REALIZE
THE SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND ANTICIPATE LESS
CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
102 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ACROSS THE REGION KFCX 88D RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE MOST PLENTIFUL. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOONE NC...BLACKSBURG VA...LEWISBURG
WV LINE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE REACHED CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE...THERE THE TREND WILL BE FOR
STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS REGION...AND ALSO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATIONS WAS OCCURRING. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE TREND...THERE ALSO WILL BE TREND FOR FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE THREE AREAS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...
OUR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING REFLECT AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS...OR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A GENEROUS AREA HAS JUST EXITED THE
NORTH...AND ANOTHER REGION IS ABOUT TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...UNTIL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST AROUND KBLF/KLWB THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD KBCB/KROA BEFORE
SEEING ADDED REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS...LOOKING AT LOW CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF KDAN TO INIT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT. THINK SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ADDED SHRA MIGHT HOLD
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE LONGER SO SLOWED DOWN
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTRW PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER BKN LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN ALL EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN
BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN OVERALL VICINITY MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...
OUR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING REFLECT AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS...OR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A GENEROUS AREA HAS JUST EXITED THE
NORTH...AND ANOTHER REGION IS ABOUT TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...UNTIL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST AROUND KBLF/KLWB THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD KBCB/KROA BEFORE
SEEING ADDED REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS...LOOKING AT LOW CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF KDAN TO INIT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT. THINK SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ADDED SHRA MIGHT HOLD
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE LONGER SO SLOWED DOWN
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTRW PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER BKN LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN ALL EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN
BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN OVERALL VICINITY MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
713 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST AROUND KBLF/KLWB THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD KBCB/KROA BEFORE
SEEING ADDED REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS...LOOKING AT LOW CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF KDAN TO INIT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT. THINK SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ADDED SHRA MIGHT HOLD
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE LONGER SO SLOWED DOWN
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTRW PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER BKN LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN ALL EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN
BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN OVERALL VICINITY MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>015-
018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
316 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SEVERE WATCH 363 WHICH INCLUDED SMYTH AND
TAZEWELL COUNTIES. APPEARS DEEPER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA. THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.
END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.
FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1204 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA. THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.
END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.
FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZEDFLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON EXACT TIMING OF TSRA...THUS LEAVING OUT OF
TAFS ATTM. MORE CONFIDENT ON INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS PER INCREASING
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT THAT CIGS
COULD DROP TO IFR AFTER 06Z/2AM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN COOLED AIR BEFORE FORECASTING THE LOW CIGS.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1203 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA. THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.
END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.
FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZEDFLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON EXACT TIMING OF TSRA...THUS LEAVING OUT OF
TAFS ATTM. MORE CONFIDENT ON INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS PER INCREASING
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT THAT CIGS
COULD DROP TO IFR AFTER 06Z/2AM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN COOLED AIR BEFORE FORECASTING THE LOW CIGS.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AT MID AFTERNOON...BEING DRIVING BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SOME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED - ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE
SUN BROKE THROUGH THE CLOUDS. ABOUT 1000 SBCAPE VIA THE RAP.
HOWEVER...HRRR/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...PROHIBITIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. WEAK SHEAR ALSO WOULDN/T
SUPPORT UPDRAFTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT
DON/T SEE A SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. LOOKS MORE LIKE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. PERHAPS HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGE...DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. APPROX 100 KT 300 MB JET STREAK HELPING
THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG...AND WILL ALSO ENHANCE ITS LIFT IN ITS LEFT
EXIT REGION. DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LEADS THE SHORTWAVE INTO
THE REGION. WITH SOME MORNING SUN - MORESO TO THE WEST - INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS A BIT HEALTHIER COMPARED TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH DEEPER AND STRONGER OVER WESTERN MN. LOCALLY 30-40
KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PROGGED BY THE NAM/GFS...WITH 20-30 KTS IN THE 0-
3 KM LAYER. STRONGEST OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. CAPE PROFILE
VIA GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS RATHER ANEMIC BUT THE NAM SHOWS SOMETHING A
BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS A RESULT. SPC UPGRADED DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND CAN/T QUIBBLE
WITH THAT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SHORTWAVE CAN GET HERE
IN TIME TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY.
FOR TUE...THE SHORTWAVE LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN WI WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
RUNNING SFC FRONT RESTING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE SHORTWAVE
MAKES IT...COULD HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN WI.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THIS IN MIND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW SOME
FLATTENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMES LESS
AMPLIFIED. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FLOW AND COULD
INTERACT WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES...GENERALLY FAVORING KEEPING THE
PERTURBATIONS SOUTHWEST OR NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. OUT OF ALL THE
DAYS...WED HOLDS PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DROPPING ONE OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GEM KEEPS IT WEST WITH THE NAM
LEANING THAT WAY. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OR WITHIN THE
MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND TYPE OF FLOW WE ARE IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EXPECT THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS
KLSE SO WILL ONLY SHOW A VCSH FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
MOVING THROUGH KRST SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO BEING PAST THE AIRPORT
BY 00Z SO WILL ONLY SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AS
THE CAPE DIMINISHES AND THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE SKIES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT WHICH RAISES THE
CONCERN FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. KLSE DID RECEIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT HAS NOT HAD ANY DURING THE DAY. WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS...THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE TO
HELP WITH FOG FORMATION...BUT THE 28.21Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDING
SUGGESTS THAT IF SATURATION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BE VERY
LATE AND NOT LAST LONG. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG TRENDS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT CONCERNED THAT IF THE RAP IS CORRECT THAT
THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT GET AS LOW AS THE FORECAST SHOWS. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FOG AT KRST HAS INCREASED WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
RAINS AND HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONVECTION FIRING IN A BROAD REGION OF UNSTABLE AIR...JUST NEEDING A
FOCUS TO GET IT GOING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY PLACES ONE CLUSTER
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS TIED TO A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. OVER IA INTO NORTHERN ILL IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ENHANCED CU AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE THE RULE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT BOTH AREAS
OF PCPN TO CONTINUE - DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT...THE RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
RUNNING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND INCREASE POPS IF THIS BECOMES LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST...SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL WARMING - ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CENTERED OVER IA. 300 MB
JET STREAK LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE LIFT. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALL THE
MODELS HAVE SAID AS MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/AREAS OF RAIN AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS BRING
THE SHORTWAVE IN BY 12Z SUN...WITH PCPN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THAT TIME. THE PCPN AND TROUGH
AXIS THEN SWINGS INTO WESTERN WI FOR SUN AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY...MOST OF WHICH LIES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER -
ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AT 12Z
SUN MORNING...BUT THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS IS POST THE PCPN SHIELD AND MUCH OF THE
DYNAMICS. NOT SURE IT WILL/COULD BE UTILIZED BY THE EXPECTED ONGOING
CONVECTION...OR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALL IN
ALL...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
THE MORNING...EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD ONTO THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN
TROUGH CONFIGURATION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL FLOW WOULD SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE BITS OF ENERGY - AS EXPECTED - BUT
NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD...ALL-DAY KIND OF
RAIN EVENTS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR DON/T FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE BLANKET OF SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...REVISING AS THE DETAILS BECOMING
CLEARER.
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS. IN ADDITION...NO TO LIMITED TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AT KLSE WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LITTLE BIT OF RAIN THAT FELL
THIS EVENING. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THEM IN SOUTH CAROLINA
MID TO HIGH BUT PLENTY OF STRATUS WAS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE
GEORGIA. A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE...
SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PWATS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LOWER POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 0.80 TO 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN. PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 90S INLAND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ALOFT...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POP SCHEME
FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAKER CAPPING. DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S LATE WEEK...INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CIGS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO 03Z AND APPEARS TO WANT TO LOCK
IN. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW BOTH INDICATE THE IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER. SINCE MORE OBS IN SE GEORGIA WERE NOW REPORTING
STRATUS...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUD SATELLITE TRACKING MASKED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AFTER MID MORNING AT THE LATEST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.
KCHS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
HELD THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW IN TACT. A MODEST
NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT OUT TO 20 NM
AND A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT BEYOND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A PIEDMONT
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INLAND. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK
15-20 KT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
448 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY THIS EVENING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.
CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO TO ADD
MENTION OF VFR SHOWERS AT KSBN AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ALL SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY KFWA BUT NOT WORTHY OF TAF MENTION
WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1203 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE
REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000
TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z.
SFC CONVERGENCE IS RATHER MEAGER ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES JUST
REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE SVR WORDING IN SOUTHEAST/EAST ZONES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THROUGH 00Z. LCL HEIGHTS
EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS
INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY STORMS FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF FUNNEL. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01-02Z. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. 4KM WRF ALSO SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MN MAY EXPAND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS
WELL. WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE CEDAR RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
MORNING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. IOWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND LESSENING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN
SO...THINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
SUCH OPPORTUNITY COME LATE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTLE IMPULSE PUSHES AN
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA DOWN ACROSS IOWA.
DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BROAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES...FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED DETAILS IN TIMING OF POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
EVEN AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILT
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY...BUT EVEN SO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED THOUGH NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...THE
STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE WEEK WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND A MODEST
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE GREATEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES SO POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP AND WE CAN REFINE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN THEN
POPS FOR PART OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS
WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT IN WAKE OF THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH
PASSAGE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW...PROVIDING
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SUNNY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER RIGHT AROUND
THE FOURTH OF JULY. OBVIOUSLY ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO GOOD WEATHER AROUND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TWO ISSUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RADIATION FOG INTO THIS
MORNING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION MON AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH WEAK SFC FLOW AND GRADIENT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL WITH OCCASIONAL SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS...BUT
WITH MOIST SOIL FROM RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY HIGH RH EXPECT AT
LEAST MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP...LIKELY IFR OR LESS IN MORE FAVORED
SPOTS. ISOLATED TO SCT PEAK HEATING CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED
MON AFTERNOON. THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE...BUT ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
WORDING IN MORE FAVORED ERN SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
DAWN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING
TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING CONCERNING THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINAL
LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING. OF ONE INTERESTING THING TO
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z WRF OUTPUT AND THE HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL LA OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STARTING TO SEE SOME VERY SMALL ECHOES
ON RADAR IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY ATTM BUT IF ANY DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...IT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NE TX TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DESCENT CU
FIELD DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AS THE RETURNING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY BUT DID NOT MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE. WILL BE WATCHING UP NORTH ACROSS AR/OK MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW COULD HELP
TO GENERATE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT ATTM BUT WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FROM THE SSW
MAINLY NEAR OR LESS THAN 10KTS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND AREA WIDE. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES
THIS EVENING. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 94 74 91 / 0 20 30 40
MLU 70 92 74 90 / 0 20 20 50
DEQ 66 90 70 91 / 0 20 30 30
TXK 69 92 73 92 / 0 20 30 40
ELD 68 92 74 91 / 0 20 30 40
TYR 71 92 73 90 / 0 20 20 30
GGG 72 92 73 91 / 0 20 20 30
LFK 75 93 75 90 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NO WEATHER-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY
RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT
LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE
RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S.
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z
RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT
MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.
MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.
AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.
AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
157 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY
RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT
LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE
RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S.
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-SPECIFIED
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES IN MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT`S A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PROGGED TO IMPACT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CLARITY NOTED IN 12Z NWP
SUITE THAN PRIOR CYCLES REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. I`VE OPTED TO USE A HEAVY DOSE OF
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD.
DAILY DETAILS FOLLOW...
WEDNESDAY: LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION CARVES OUT MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ALLOWS FOR A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
HIGH PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL
TO SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER 12Z GFS, WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY LI`S OF -4 AND CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG, WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 35-40 KTS. SO THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL FOR
VT AND CLOSER TO LIKELY FOR NORTHER NY. SHOWN FORECAST QPF
WEDNESDAY UP TO A HALF INCH, BUT LOCALLY MORE IN CONVECTION.
DEPENDING ON SPEED THAT FRONT EXITS - WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE
SLOWER - SHOULD HAVE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE M50S/NEAR 60.
THURSDAY: GFS/EC REALLY ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO HOW THURSDAY
PLAYS OUT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WITH LARGER QPF
ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE EC SHOWS MORE SHEARED-OUT SHORTWAVE
FEATURES AND LOWER QPF. KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN
UNSETTLED HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z
RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT
MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT
BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD ARE IN JEOPARDY.
AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD
FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36
INCHES SET IN 2013.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
5 PM 06/28.
AT 8.44 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.48 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN
1922.
AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA ACCOMPANIED BY A 70KT 300MB JET STREAK NOSING/DIVING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM LAST FEW HOURS AS WANED
WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING TOPS WARMING FROM SASKATOON INTO
REGINA. THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM IS NOW VOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS OVERDONE. HAVE REMOVED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSORMS WEST OVERNIGHT. IF
SOMETHING REMOTELY DOES DEVELOP...FEEL THE COVERAGE AFFECTED WOULD
NOT JUSTIFY THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. THE OTHER UPDATE WAS TO ADD HAZE IN THE GRIDS CENTRAL
ZONES...WITH SHALLOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. JAMESTOWN
AIRPORT VISIBILITY HAS FALLEN TO 6SM AND BISMARCK HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 7SM AND 8SM. WITH STREAM OF SMOKE CONTINUING
TO TRAVEL FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECT
HAZE AND SKY OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOOKING SLIMMER. THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION IN
SASKATCHEWAN BUT WOULD TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO REACH NORTH DAKOTA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA RIDING ALONG A 70KT
JETSTREAK THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH OF GLASGOW. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A BAND OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAZY SKIES
TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING THROUGH
MONDAY.
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
COOLER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING MANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
SWING THROUGH. ONCE SUCH WAVE IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS USHER IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LEE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. BASICALLY WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO THE
PATTERN WE HAD EARLY LAST WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO TRAVEL INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. DEPTH OF HAZE PARTICULATES WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
REST OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 6SM. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME A FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU HAS
NOW MADE ITS WAY INTO NW PA. LAST FEW SHRA APPEAR TO JUST BE IN
EASTERN ERIE CO PA. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN POPS AND CLOUDS IN NW
PA THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLIGHT CHC FOR THE SNOWBELT
LATER TONIGHT AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING SE
INTO THE AREA.
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM TOMORROW`S SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
THE WEST. CURRENT SHRA OVER INDIANA SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE WEST BUT ANOTHER PUSH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE NIGHT. A FEW SHRA
COULD REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGE AROUND DAYBREAK SO WILL KEEP
A SMALL CHC POP THERE FOR THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INLAND PART OF THE EASTERN SNOWBELT WHERE LOWER 50S SHOULD
BE COMMON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WEST WILL PROBABLY HOLD LOWS IN A 58 TO 60 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WE DID
CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW FLOODING BUT SINCE WE THINK THE QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER HALF AN INCH WE HELD OFF FOR NOW. IF THIS CONVECTION
CHARGES TOWARD THE AREA STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED.
AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY EVENING IT WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
CENTRAL OHIO BUT EVEN THAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS BOUNDARY
AND A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL THEN BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FR
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT COULD VARY SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WISH THE HOLIDAY FORECAST WAS CUT AND DRY...BUT WITH THE EASTERN
U.S. MAINTAINING A BROAD TROUGH...WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE SIDED TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION TO TRY AND
PINPOINT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY BE WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
UNSURE WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS HERE SO LINGERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THROUGH ENS MEAN HAS A RIDGE BEGINNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING RAIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY LATER THIS MORNING. ERIE MAY WIN OUT TODAY AND
STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THAT
AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MORE MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. AREAS OF NON
VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE HAD TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING FOR
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. BUOY OFF OF CLEVELAND AND REPORTS OFF OF ERIE
PA STILL INDICATE 4 TO 5 FOOTERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SO WIND/WAVES WILL SETTLE. NEXT SYSTEMS TRACK OF THE
LOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EXACT
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND ON THE LAKE. HAVE TAKEN THE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AND INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A
STIFF ESE FLOW FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT
MORE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND THEREFORE WOULD YIELD
DIFFERENT WIND/WAVES ON THE LAKE. GRADIENT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER FOR
MID WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE OF NO ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT
CLEANLY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE UNTIL MAYBE THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
923 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS
NORTHWARD. FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
DECREASING THE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR MASS...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DONE FOR THE DAY WITH THE LAST OF
THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE CLEARED RAIN AND
LIGHTNING CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z. THE NEXT FEATURE
TO WATCH IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO OREGON OVERNIGHT
AS IT WEAKENS AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE CASCADES AS WELL.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT SEEMS LIKE RAIN AND LIGHTNING
CHANCES FOR THE VALLEY ARE NEGLIGIBLE AT BEST AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS
AND WX OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN VALLEY IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE A BIT OF RAIN
MONDAY MORNING BUT THE NAM...WHICH SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB
WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...IS TRENDING DRYER FOR MONDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHTNING AND SHOWERS FOR THE
CASCADES.
THE OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES. LAST NIGHT AT 9PM PDX
HAD JUST FALLEN BELOW 90 DEGREES WHEREAS TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURE IS
74 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAT THIS MORNING`S 70
DEGREES. HOWEVER MODELS ARE DEVELOPING STRATUS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL LOOK TO BACKBUILD OVER THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW AT PDX OF 67 WILL BE
REASONABLE. HOWEVER IF THE TEMPERATURE FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THE
STRATUS FORMS OR IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT OCCUR...LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE PORTLAND METRO WILL MORE LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S. MODELS
SEEMS FAIRLY INSISTENT RIGHT NOW ABOUT THE STRATUS FORMATION BUT THE
CURRENTLY PRESENT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR OUT FIRST BEFORE
ANY STRATUS CAN FORM. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH APPEAR
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH LOW 60S IN THE SALEM AREA AND AROUND 60
FOR THE EUGENE AREA. WILL LIKELY BREAK MORE WARM LOW RECORDS MONDAY
AS CURRENT RECORDS IN THE VALLEY RANGE FROM 60 IN EUGENE TO 68 IN
PORTLAND BUT ONLY 64 IN VANCOUVER. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS EVENING IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST EVENING...SLEEPING CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE A BIT BETTER TONIGHT INLAND. BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...BUT THEY HAVE ONLY PRODUCED A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS OPENING UP AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT N-NE THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TOWARD 1.50 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...SEEMING TO NEED
SOME SORT OF ATMOSPHERIC TRIGGER TO SET OFF MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHTNING...SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN ABSENT SINCE THE LAST WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTED INTO WRN WA EARLIER TODAY. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
MITIGATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION THUS FAR.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRONG JUNE SUN CONTINUES TO HEAT THE SURFACE DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES IN THE CASCADES ARE NEARING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SFC-BASED
STORMS FIRE SOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER WILL ALSO COME IN THE FORM
OF A 70-90 KT SOUTHERLY JET PUSHES INTO WRN OREGON FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR
THE CASCADES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY
STARTING OFF AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION. A COUPLE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED THUNDER AS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED JET MOVES THROUGH WRN OREGON. EITHER ROUND MAY OR MAY
NOT OCCUR...SO DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND NOT TRY TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ON TIMING. WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDER TONIGHT LIFTING N-NE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO WA EARLY MON.
THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER MONDAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
MONDAY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF +18 DEG C TEMPS WILL STILL
APPROACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...THE SAME ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RECENT HEAT...WILL REBUILD ANOTHER RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW MIDWEEK.
ODDS ARE GOOD THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF 90S INLAND
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE 590S AND 850 MB TEMPS PUSH WELL ABOVE
20 DEG C WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH NO COOLDOWN IN SIGHT...IT APPEARS TO BE A LOCK FOR MULTIPLE
INLAND LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO BREAK THEIR ALL-TIME RECORDS
FOR THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO BRING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSITION
US TO MORE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT LESS HOT NEXT
WEEKEND...LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER EAST OF OUR AREA WHICH WILL KEEP US
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. -MCCOY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW IS ROTATING A SWATH OF DRIER
AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE OREGON
BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THAT BOUNDARY OF MOIST AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BECOME ORIENTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL FEEL LIKE WE
ARE WALKING A FINE LINE BETWEEN LAL 2 AND LAL 3 STRIKE COUNTS AND
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
DESPITE THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE. COULD GET ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS WEST BUT DON`T FEEL THERE WILL BE THE SAME DEGREE OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
ON MONDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH CASCADES BUT WILL NEED TO
GET HEATING AND MOISTURE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS WILL FINALLY STABILIZE SOMEWHAT AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES SOME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO KEEPING ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE ZONES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SO. THE VERY
WARM...DRY...AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD HELP ANY HOLDOVERS MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CASCADES WHERE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN WITH GREATER INTENSITY OVER TIME.
WEAGLE/JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW KEPT
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OVER AT
THIS POINT FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER
TOWARD THE CASCADES LATER TONIGHT.
SHALLOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...INCLUDING KONP. THE STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE LATEST
FCST MODELS ALSO INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...BACK BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO SOME OF THE VALLEY TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z MON. THEN EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE
MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS
TO BE OVER AT THIS POINT. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A 2500 TO
3500 FT CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL EARLY MON MORNING. THIS CLOUD
BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH LIGHT S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NW LATER MON.
WESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 4 FT CONTINUES. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE RETURN OF GUSTY N WINDS AS TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SW OREGON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 605-ZONE
606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 660.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IMPULSE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM/HRRR...SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE 29.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z
TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN ARE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES. THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/RAP
SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MANLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THIS LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP BUILD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. WITH THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING A FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTION
WITH THE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLUS...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND DEVELOP A DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WESTERN SHIFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IS TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 29.00Z MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE IMPULSES. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE NO LONGER NEAR EITHER AIRPORT AND THE
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND THE EARLIER
RAINFALL...APPEARS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. SOME SITES ARE ALREADY GOING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND EXPECT THE FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL START TO INCREASE THE FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO FORM. THE 29.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THESE MODELS. WILL ADD IN A VCTS FOR
BOTH SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND LET LATER
FORECASTS REFINE THE TIMING ON THE STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF
FL WITH ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING DEEP W/SW FLOW
OVER CENTRAL FL. CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF IS PUSHING ONSHORE
THE BIG BEND/NATURE COAST REGION OF WEST FL AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF SHOWING HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFT. MOS POPS ALSO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS (60-70 PERCENT) IN FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTH
INTO THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE LOW 90S AND EVEN MID
90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...SOUTH OF THE CAPE...AS SEA
BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM FROM STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION ALREADY PUSHING INTO LAKE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
FORECAST DISCUSSION SEEMING A BIT REPETITIVE AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
REMAINS IN A LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FCST PD. A
STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION KEEP POPS FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SOME TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN. FORECAST KEEPS SOME POPS IN TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND INCREASING
TOWARDS MORNING WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST IN NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS, WITH A BREAK TUES NIGHT POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE ON WED AND SO ON THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. WED/WED
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SOME OF THE MORE FOCUSED POPS AS A BOUNDARY IS
APPARENT IN SFC WIND FIELDS IN THE MODELS. ANY BOUNDARY LIKELY TO
SET UP IN THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS/DYNAMICS FOR ANY SHORT
WAVE ASSISTED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM. THE SERIES OF WAVES STARTS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE DISSONANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED AS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND STORMY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THIS STRATUS WILL NOT BE AROUND LONG GIVEN THAT CLOUD DECK IS NOT
THAT THICK AND SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. SO HAVE THINGS
IMPROVING 14-15Z AT ALL SITES AND THEN CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOST OF THE
DAY...AND THEN TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY THIS EVENING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.
CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOW PRESSURE MOVG EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS CAUSING AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH LOW CIGS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY AT FWA MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST BUT LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE SOME STRATUS/FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
840 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-
JACKSON-SCOTT.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1112 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ITS ASSOCIATED FORCING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...IS ON ITS WAY OUT. WE NOW AWAIT THE NEXT WAVE TO
COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH COMBINED WITH HEATING AND SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST WAS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. BROUGHT THE GRIDS IN LINE
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HOURLY OBS. SOUTHERN END OF BAND OF
SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC...HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY I-64 CORRIDOR LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR THE START OF THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF OUR OVERHEAD TROUGH...STILL
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING
TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST WAS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HOURLY OBS. SOUTHERN END OF BAND OF
SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC...HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY I-64 CORRIDOR LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR THE START OF THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF OUR OVERHEAD TROUGH...STILL
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING
TEMPORARY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR
TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED
TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST
UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.
HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
829 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IS FROM THE SMOKE
DEBRIS THAT IS BEING CARRIED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ALASKA REGION.
GRIDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING UPDATED FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND A SECOND
MAY BE POSITIONED ACROSS MT THIS MORNING WHICH AFFECT THE WEST
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND A SECOND
MAY BE POSITIONED ACROSS MT THIS MORNING WHICH AFFECT THE WEST
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
923 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY HAS SHIFTED 40 MILES OFF THE
COAST. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE
DEWPOINT FIELD. THE BOUNDARY IS NEAR A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
WESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY TO KINGSTREE. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING SHUNTED TO THE COAST WITH
THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST REMAINING HIGHER. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THE MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER 3 PM AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AREA OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE HRRR IS ONLY SHOWING WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND HORRY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL
KEEP AN ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN THESE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MINS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR
FLIPS TO JULY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY
LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP
BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE
1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR
70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT
MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING
THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND
POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE
CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG
THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS
BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE
THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE FOG AT LBT SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN AN HOUR OR TWO.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...NORTHEAST AT
TIMES...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...WEST TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO
20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL
CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A
GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL
DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE
EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT
TIMES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.
TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 70 96 74 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 96 69 98 73 / 30 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 72 97 75 / 60 20 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 69 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 71 95 72 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1022 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME EXPANSION TO THE REST OF THE MID-STATE IS
ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR OUTPUT THROUGH 00Z. THE KBNA
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE 750MB-
550MB LAYER AND A PW VALUE OF ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...SO ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER SPC...WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIMEFRAME ATTM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH TAF SITES...GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. THINK HIGHS WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ESPECIALLY WEST WITH MOST
LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 80S EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SPARK NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND DECREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS ON THAT FRONT IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL SAY
GOODBYE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
PINPOINTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE QUITE DIFFICULT SINCE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL DEVIATE FROM DAY TO DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AROUND THE CORNER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT THINK
THE AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTION
PATTERN OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 69 88 68 / 30 40 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 85 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 40
CROSSVILLE 81 66 81 65 / 30 30 60 50
COLUMBIA 86 68 87 68 / 30 40 50 30
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 86 68 / 30 40 50 30
WAVERLY 85 69 87 69 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IMPULSE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM/HRRR...SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE 29.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z
TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN ARE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES. THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/RAP
SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MANLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THIS LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP BUILD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. WITH THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING A FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTION
WITH THE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLUS...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND DEVELOP A DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WESTERN SHIFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IS TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 29.00Z MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE IMPULSES. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
ALLOWED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR BR/FG/CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THRU 13Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
LATE JUNE SUNSHINE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WORK TO DISSIPATE THE BR/FG.
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FROM 14-22Z APPEARS QUIET WITH SCT VFR CUMULUS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENT TIMING CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GUIDANCE WOULD SPREAD THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES
IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME-FRAME...THOUGH A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD BE IN THE
AREA AS EARLY AS 20Z. WILL LEAVE A VCTS/CB MENTION AT BOTH KRST/KLSE
IN THE 22Z-01Z PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE MORNING...FOR
GENERALLY GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA EXIT. MAY YET NEED
A BR MENTION AT KLSE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT BUT LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW AS
RADIATIONAL FOG SIGNAL FOR TONIGHT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
255 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND RETREATS INLAND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:54 PM PDT MONDAY...MANY INLAND LOCATIONS
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED WELL OFF OF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A MARINE LAYER AT AROUND 1200
FEET DEEP. HOWEVER...THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
HAS HELD COASTAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE INLAND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE REACHING A PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND BAYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 90S TO AS HIGH AS 108 IN THE WARMEST INLAND
VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH A
PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE STATE
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS
MODEL INDICATES INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER OUR REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST MODELS AND
LOOK FOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL REGION-WIDE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND RETREATS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WILL AID
IN THE COOLING TREND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT MONDAY... STRATUS RETREATING FROM
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORN PER THE NORM WITH A STUBBORN PATCH OF IFR
CIGS LINGERING NEAR KMRY. EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WINDS. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY POORLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS... SO
LATEST TAFS ARE RELYING MORE ON THE RUC13 AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
THAN USUAL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...
MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS INTO LOW LEVELS... LEADING TO A THINNER
DECK... BUT WITH MORE INVASIVE CIGS. LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO
DOMINATE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNRISE TOMORROW. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL...BRIEF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS SUST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 04Z... WITH IFR BY 08-10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... PATCH OF LOW HANGING CLOUDS
DIRECTLY OVER KMRY TERMINAL... ELSEWHERE... VFR. WEST WINDS AOA
10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. RETURN OF MVFR/IFR AFTER 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:54 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MODERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY
AS A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
129 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FLOW OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLOW DRYING IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
BAJA...AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED DAY-
TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE SAN
DIEGO MOUNTAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER...AND DISSIPATING AFTER THEY MOVE OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE CUT OFF FROM THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE
FAST SPEEDS OF THE CELLS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR WAS 0.20 INCHES AT CAMPO. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS
THE CELLS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SPINE INTO
THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS NEAR BIG BEAR...WHILE ANVIL DEBRIS BRING POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES TO THE VALLEYS AND COAST. THE PLENTIFUL CLOUDS THAT WERE
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS LED TO COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE BETTER CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH A LOW FAR SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. THIS POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS RESULTING IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION TODAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1.3-1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
ABOVE 600 MB. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. STILL...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
STAYS ABOVE 600 MB...SO NO HUGE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE MOMENT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING
NOCTURNAL ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. IN FACT...THE NAM12 PRECIPITATION OUTPUT SHOWS SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FURTHER WEST
FOR THAT TIME-PERIOD IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES GO...SOME WARMING IS LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS CONTINUING AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO
OVERALL LESS CLOUDS AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE
WEAKENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SLOWER
DRYING DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKES PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY AS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN. NEVERTHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE IMPULSE
OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
REMAINS DRY FOR NOW. THE COOLING CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. LOOK FOR THE PATCHY
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
292020Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY STRATUS REDEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING...EXTENDING ABOUT 5-10 MILES INLAND...AND
FROM ABOUT KCRQ SOUTHWARD. BASES NEAR 800 FT MSL AND TOPS 1200 FEET
MSL. STRATUS DISSIPATING AROUND 30/16Z TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS LOW. RISK OF BKN LOW CLOUDS AT KSNA IS STILL
VERY LOW...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE KSNA TAF.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. CU/TCU DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTERNOONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO NEAR 30000 FT MSL...
LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
145 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
THERES A CHANCE THAT SKYWARN WILL NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1105 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW
100S OVER INLAND AREAS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:03 AM PDT MONDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER INLAND
AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 1500 FEET DEEP. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. AFTER
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE...HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TODAY.
IT APPEARS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT SLOWER
AND WILL PREDOMINATELY STAY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIORMONTEREY
COUNTY AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ANY CONVECTION TO STAY WELL TO OUR EAST OF
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BENEATH A BLANKET OF A MIXED OF
LOW CLOUDS AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN
ALOFT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY STREAM OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER RADAR HAS
NOT PICKED UP ON ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE DISTRICT BUT RATHER
TO THE EAST OVER THE SIERRA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACK OFF ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TODAY. THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. DIDN/T WANT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN OF THE MODELS THAT
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS MAY
BE FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE WARMING TREND
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS IT GRADUALLY INCHES WESTWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S AT THE COAST AND BAYS AND 90S TO LOW 100S
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO RECORD TERRITORY. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT PIN POINT THE TIMING AND LOCATION. A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT MONDAY... STRATUS RETREATING FROM
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORN PER THE NORM WITH A STUBBORN PATCH OF IFR
CIGS LINGERING NEAR KMRY. EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WINDS. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY POORLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS... SO
LATEST TAFS ARE RELYING MORE ON THE RUC13 AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
THAN USUAL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...
MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS INTO LOW LEVELS... LEADING TO A THINNER
DECK... BUT WITH MORE INVASIVE CIGS. LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO
DOMINATE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNRISE TOMORROW. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL...BRIEF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS SUST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 04Z... WITH IFR BY 08-10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... PATCH OF LOW HANGING CLOUDS
DIRECTLY OVER KMRY TERMINAL... ELSEWHERE... VFR. WEST WINDS AOA
10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. RETURN OF MVFR/IFR AFTER 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:56 AM PDT MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY STEEP WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUMP MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERING UP A MIXED BAG OF VARYING
IDEAS OF HOW TO HANDLE THE INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST
MODEL BRING THE KINK IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO BE
TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN DEVELOPING NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES AND K INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 30 MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED POPS FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. POPS WERE ADDED BACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SHAPING
UP FOR TODAY. THE AREA IS GETTING OFF TO A WARMER START TODAY...BUT
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CUT INTO TEMPERATURES LATER
AS THE WAVE PUSHES NORTH. LOCAL HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKELY CARRIZO AND ACTON
THIS AFTERNOON. 950 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMEST TODAY THEN START
TO COOL LATER THIS WEEK.
STRATUS COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NAM BUFR
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HAVE LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE MARINE LAYER. LOCAL
2-KM WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO MODEL THE STRATUS EXCELLENTLY...AND
SUGGEST NO COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE STRATUS AS ALL OF THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REALLY MESSED WITH THE MARINE INVERSION.
THE BEST CHC OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.
WITH 592 DM HGTS OVERHEAD AND ONLY VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL SO IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A LITTLE WORSE
THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
COOLING TO THE COASTS AND LOWER VLYS WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID MAX TEMPS
ARE RIPE FOR SOME PRETTY BIG BUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD FORECAST.
LESS CLOUDS THAN FORECAST WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGHS
(LIKE SUNDAY) AND VICE VERSA (LIKE SATURDAY)
.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES FROM UTAH TO NEVADA. SKIES SHOULD BE MORE ON THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTNS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE THE SLIGHT CHC OF AFT AND EVE MTN TSTMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER SIMILAR EACH DAY AND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST AND A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE EAST PAC AND SETS UP DRIER SW FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KILL ANY CHC FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS. HGTS FALL AND THIS
WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...29/1800Z...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. UPPER
LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER 30/19Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
SLO COUNTY TO LA COUNTY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER TEH LA BASIN AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH 30/03Z. TSTMS WITH TOPS 40KFT WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST APPROXIMATELY 25KT. BASE OF THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION WAS
AROUND .5FT THIS MORNING OVER KLAX AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE.
MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600Z IS 477 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 2131 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 28.8 DEGREES C.
KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY UNLIKELY
CIGS 015 BETWEEN 30/10-30/17Z.
KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...29/900 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END SOUTH OF SAN MIGUEL
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS
EXCLUDING THE AREA FROM POINT SAL NORTH 0-10 NM THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE
SOUTH OF POINT MUGU THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TWO
STORM SYSTEMS WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND WITH A FETCH
BETWEEN 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COAST WILL GENERATE SEAS
30-40 FEET SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
A WEEK FROM TODAY AND BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUMP MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERING UP A MIXED BAG OF VARYING
IDEAS OF HOW TO HANDLE THE INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST
MODEL BRING THE KINK IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO BE
TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN DEVELOPING NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES AND K INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 30 MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED POPS FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. POPS WERE ADDED BACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SHAPING
UP FOR TODAY. THE AREA IS GETTING OFF TO A WARMER START TODAY...BUT
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CUT INTO TEMPERATURES LATER
AS THE WAVE PUSHES NORTH. LOCAL HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKELY CARRIZO AND ACTON
THIS AFTERNOON. 950 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMEST TODAY THEN START
TO COOL LATER THIS WEEK.
STRATUS COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NAM BUFR
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HAVE LITTLE HUMIDITY IN THE MARINE LAYER. LOCAL
2-KM WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO MODEL THE STRATUS EXCELLENTLY...AND
SUGGEST NO COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE STRATUS AS ALL OF THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REALLY MESSED WITH THE MARINE INVERSION.
THE BEST CHC OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.
WITH 592 DM HGTS OVERHEAD AND ONLY VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL SO IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A LITTLE WORSE
THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
COOLING TO THE COASTS AND LOWER VLYS WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID MAX TEMPS
ARE RIPE FOR SOME PRETTY BIG BUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD FORECAST.
LESS CLOUDS THAN FORECAST WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGHS
(LIKE SUNDAY) AND VICE VERSA (LIKE SATURDAY)
.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES FROM UTAH TO NEVADA. SKIES SHOULD BE MORE ON THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTNS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE THE SLIGHT CHC OF AFT AND EVE MTN TSTMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER SIMILAR EACH DAY AND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST AND A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE EAST PAC AND SETS UP DRIER SW FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KILL ANY CHC FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS. HGTS FALL AND THIS
WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...29/06Z.
AT 08Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS AT 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH 16Z. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH 16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...29/900 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END SOUTH OF SAN MIGUEL
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTH TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS
EXCLUDING THE AREA FROM POINT SAL NORTH 0-10 NM THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE
SOUTH OF POINT MUGU THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TWO
STORM SYSTEMS WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND WITH A FETCH
BETWEEN 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COAST WILL GENERATE SEAS
30-40 FEET SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
A WEEK FROM TODAY AND BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
922 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE EAST
WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A FLOW OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLOW DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HAVE NOT RECEIVED
ANY REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM THESE
ECHOES...SO MOST OF THEM ARE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES/VIRGA DUE TO THE
CONTINUED DRY LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY LAYER IS
INDICATED WELL ON THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE LOCATED ABOVE 600 MB ALL THE WAY TO THE TROPOPAUSE.
MEANWHILE...A NEAR SURFACE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS ALSO
SHOWN...BUT ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ABLE TO FORM ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INTERFERENCE FROM ALL THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS LOW STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE
MORNING.
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH A LOW FAR SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. THIS POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS RESULTING IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION TODAY. THE AREAS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. 14Z HRRR INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH LARGER AREAS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS
DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE BEING A
BIT TOO ELEVATED IN TERMS OF ITS HEIGHT...AND A LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH
CLOUD COVER...WHICH LIMITS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM DAY-
TIME HEATING. THE ONLY HI-RES MODEL THAT SHOWS MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 00Z CANSAC-WRF.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE OVERALL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1.3-1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
ABOVE 600 MB. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. STILL...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
STAYS ABOVE 600 MB...SO NO HUGE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED.
THE MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING NOCTURNAL
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS. IN FACT...THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT SHOWS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT TIME-PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SOME WARMING IS LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS CONTINUING
AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO OVERALL LESS
CLOUDS AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THINGS COULD START DRYING OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...AS THE ECMWF
MOVES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST OF
THE MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY...AND IT ISNT UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY THAT THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT KICK IN THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
NEXT MONDAY. THE COOLING CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. LOOK FOR THE PATCHY
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
291520Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY PATCHY STRATUS EXTENDING ABOUT 5-10
MILES INLAND...AND FROM ABOUT KCRQ SOUTHWARD...WITH BASES NEAR 800
FT MSL AND TOPS 1200 FEET MSL. STRATUS DISSIPATING AROUND 1630Z.
PATCHY STRATUS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WITH
SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE
IS LOW. RISK OF BKN LOW CLOUDS AT KSNA IS STILL VERY LOW...SO WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE KSNA TAF.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. CU/TCU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO
NEAR 30000 FT MSL...LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND LOCAL VIS
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
825 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY FOR TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 93 78 92 / 30 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 40
MIAMI 77 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
TODAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.
CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINFALL GOING NEAR
KSBN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DRIFTING EAST OF TERMINAL
SHORTLY. OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC EVENT AT TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD
COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD FOG BECOMES BUT EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPS IN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.
ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
..08..
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NORTH BY 00Z
WITH FRONT HEADING TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BEST FORCING
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH HRRR AND
VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT BEST SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM NEAR MASON
CITY SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. CURRENT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OVER THE EAST THOUGH WITH
LACK OF SFC TRIGGER...LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...IF AT ALL...UNDER
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER OR OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS CAN FIRE CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM. WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
THIS EVENING...WILL BE NARROWING POPS/WX OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE DIURNAL SUPPORT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...AM
EXPECTING A LESSENING OF COVERAGE AFT 02Z WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN FIRES
IMPACTING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THICKER LAYER OF SMOKE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER IOWA SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A BRILLIANT SUNSET FOR AREAS WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SOMEWHAT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES WAS THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OTHER CONCERN WAS TEMPS AND HOW THEY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SMOKE PLUME FROM CANADA.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO CUT ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND SHOULD HOLD OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. PLUS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT IN DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK...MAYBE EVEN SHOVED FURTHER WEST BY THE SURFACE
HIGH...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THE SMOKE FROM CANADA
WILL AFFECT THE MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SINCE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THE
FIRES WILL CEASE. IF SMOKE IS STILL AROUND ON TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY
NEED TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS
MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE LOW POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION. THOUGH
UNSTABLE...LITTLE FORCING OR INITIATION MECHANISM CURRENTLY TO
FORCE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AND -TSRA BETWEEN 20-23Z...BUT MAIN FORCING OF SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY OVER MN WILL BE THE BETTER TRIGGER TODAY...WITH SCT
THUNDER MOVING SOUTH TOWARD IA/MN BORDER BETWEEN 22-00Z. SMOKE
FROM FIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER IOWA. THOUGH
SFC OBSTRUCTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED...LAYER OF SMOKE MAY CAUSE
SOME RESTRICTION ALOFT OR ON APPROACH GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND
DEPTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10-12KT GUSTS 15 KTS THROUGH 00Z. AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES...CONVECTION WILL END AND CONDITIONS REMAIN
QUIET THROUGH END OF PERIOD. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1219 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP ON SCHEDULE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. MAINLY FRESEHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ITS ASSOCIATED FORCING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...IS ON ITS WAY OUT. WE NOW AWAIT THE NEXT WAVE TO
COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH COMBINED WITH HEATING AND SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FORECAST WAS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. BROUGHT THE GRIDS IN LINE
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HOURLY OBS. SOUTHERN END OF BAND OF
SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC...HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY I-64 CORRIDOR LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR THE START OF THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF OUR OVERHEAD TROUGH...STILL
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. MODELS...AND
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AROUND DAWN...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHEARING OUT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD HELP
REGENERATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR EXAMPLE...
CLOUD COVER...LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
FORCING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE ISOLD IN
NATURE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. JUST THE SAME WITH SPC PLACING
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW REGIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER KY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISCONTINUITY...SO THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE.
WITH THE GENERAL NW FLOW...EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SE AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION...CREATING THE ENERGY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...EXPECT
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PEAKING IN SEVERITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAKES A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS40...SHOULD
BECOME STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK-BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR A MCS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY SHIFT SE OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING...ASSUMING
MODEL TIMING PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE FORMED TO OUR NORTH...AND WE WILL STILL BE IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING FRONT. UNDER SW FLOW BY THIS POINT...AND
STILL IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING PATTERN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO THE EXITING
FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...MODEL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION STARTS TO DECLINE AS
THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DAMPENING/WEAKENING...
BUT CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE
SPARK FOR YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO SUPPORT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW CANADA TO CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA...PULLING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL OBVIOUSLY IN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THIS PANS OUT
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WE END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD MONDAY.
WITH A NW FLOW REGIME...COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FROM CANADA TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN AS THE TROUGH BACK-BUILDS AND
GENERALLY SW FLOW TAKES HOLD DURING A PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WE
WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO PULL COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NW JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY...ENERGY WILL BE
REDIRECTED TOWARDS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CAUSING A BREAK
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BETTER PULL OF TRUE SW WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH ANY SUNSHINE...WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MODERATED AS WELL...STAYING AROUND THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE GENERALLLY DISSIPATING. ANY
DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING.
PATCHY FOG WILL SET IN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER CLEARING OUT MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC...SO AM ONLY CARRYING MVFR FOR NOW. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY AROUND 12Z...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1208 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV
LATER AS THE LATEST UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.
HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
DECENT AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THIS POINT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS STRONGER TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT WORK OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
TO START THE LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATES MOISTURE
LINGERS 950-900MB WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NE WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH AND NEARING
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING NEAR LK SUPERIOR NCNTRL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL HIT UP
CLOUDS MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMOVED CHANCES OF FOG. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THERMAL TROUGH IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPPER LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN PWATS BLO 0.5 INCH AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE COOLER SPOTS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WITH DEEPER MIXING...DWPNTS IN AFTN
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 30S OR 40S. NAM DWPNTS WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE
HIGH BIAS SHOW MID 30S...SO THAT INDICATES HOW DRY THE AIRMASS LOOKS
TO BE. MAY BE MORE CU THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...BUT
TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY POP-UP SHRA.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
UPPER LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT FRONT SLIDING TOWARD
UPR LAKES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES COULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND
FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO APPEARS LIKE ONLY LOW-CHANCES AT THIS
POINT.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THINKING NOW IS THAT JULY 4TH WILL BE DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. BECOMING WARMER AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +14C
BY END OF SATURDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESUTING INSTABILITY AROUND GIVEN OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +15C. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE MODIFICATION RESTRICTED TO
EASTERN CWA OFF LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS ON
SUNDAY COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEST HALF.
CONSENSUS POPS OF HIGHER CHANCES SEEMED GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPR MICHIGAN. SFC-H85 THETA-E
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANZED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA NEXT MONDAY...WITH TIMING AND
COVERAGE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
EXPECT SOME SHRA/TS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW THIS AFTN WITH OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL. ALTHOUGH A TS COULD HIT CMX AS WELL...THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A LINGERINGTS WILL ARRIVE TNGT WITH THE CLOSER
APRCH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR. AFTER THIS FNT
PASSES THE SITES...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NNW TO BRING IN SOME LO
CLDS/FOG ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MRNG...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND IWD...BUT SAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU 30/18Z
WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.
TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW PUSHING IN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL SLIDE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST
AND A DRIER SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM ONTARIO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT GENERALLY IN THE 60S BY THE CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER/LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO MID 40S FOR THE INLAND
LOCATION. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 50S. ONE
CAVEAT IS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING HUDSON BAY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND WILL PUSH CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN U.P. FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P. BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SCARCE WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE FOURTH OF JULY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THAT SYSTEM FOR NOW AS IT IS AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
EXPECT SOME SHRA/TS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW THIS AFTN WITH OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL. ALTHOUGH A TS COULD HIT CMX AS WELL...THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A LINGERINGTS WILL ARRIVE TNGT WITH THE CLOSER
APRCH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR. AFTER THIS FNT
PASSES THE SITES...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NNW TO BRING IN SOME LO
CLDS/FOG ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MRNG...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND IWD...BUT SAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU 30/18Z
WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IS FROM THE SMOKE
DEBRIS THAT IS BEING CARRIED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ALASKA REGION.
GRIDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING UPDATED FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AT 850 MB TO 750 MB ARE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. STORMS ARE UNDERWAY FROM
SPEARFISH SD TO CHEYENNE WY AND THE HRRR...RAP...ARW...NMM AND NAM
CARRY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WOULD CLEAR SWRN NEB 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE ACROSS SERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW GIVEN THE
LIMITED RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS ND AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NAM SHOWS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BELOW 750 MB ACROSS
SWRN NEB AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS ALONG HWY 385 AIMED AT THE BLACK HILLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE STORMS TO FIRE ON THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN.
THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LOW
GIVEN THAT THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THUS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO 700 MB TODAY ALLOWING FOR A BUMP
IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE RADIATION NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES
THE CWA IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AS THEY
TRAVERSE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
CWA ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 30C IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV NOW NEARING 100 FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB
ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. STILL TRENDED HIGHS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SO GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED AND BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RANGE FOR THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FORECAST FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEYOND THE PERIOD. FOR NOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE WILL BE THE IMPACTS. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SMOKE ALONG AND EAST OF ONL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN. STORMS WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM DUE TO A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS NUDGED INTO THE AREA. LATER THIS
AFTN...STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND MOST STORM SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 06Z. LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 63 98 65 100 / 40 5 10 10
DULCE........................... 50 90 53 92 / 40 20 30 30
CUBA............................ 53 88 57 90 / 40 20 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 56 94 56 95 / 30 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 55 90 55 91 / 30 30 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 92 58 94 / 30 10 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 57 90 57 91 / 30 20 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 59 93 60 93 / 40 20 20 50
CHAMA........................... 49 83 52 84 / 40 30 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 89 61 90 / 40 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 55 86 58 87 / 40 30 30 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 85 52 85 / 40 30 30 40
RED RIVER....................... 46 75 49 75 / 40 30 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 80 52 78 / 30 30 40 70
TAOS............................ 49 87 54 87 / 40 20 20 20
MORA............................ 51 84 56 83 / 40 30 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 55 94 59 95 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 88 61 89 / 40 20 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 91 61 92 / 40 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 94 66 95 / 50 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 94 68 96 / 50 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 96 66 98 / 50 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 97 67 98 / 40 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 97 66 98 / 50 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 96 67 97 / 40 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 96 65 97 / 40 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 90 61 91 / 60 10 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 58 92 61 94 / 60 10 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 90 56 92 / 60 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 88 58 89 / 60 20 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 88 59 89 / 60 10 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 90 61 91 / 60 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 56 82 59 84 / 60 10 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 55 90 59 86 / 10 5 10 60
RATON........................... 54 91 56 88 / 20 5 10 60
SPRINGER........................ 54 93 58 91 / 20 5 10 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 86 56 86 / 50 10 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 61 95 65 93 / 10 0 10 30
ROY............................. 57 92 61 91 / 20 0 0 40
CONCHAS......................... 63 98 67 98 / 50 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 95 64 96 / 50 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 98 68 98 / 50 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 63 93 64 94 / 50 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 64 94 66 95 / 50 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 95 65 96 / 60 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 96 66 97 / 50 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 60 92 60 94 / 60 0 0 5
ELK............................. 58 85 59 88 / 40 0 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ510>516-527>529.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORE
MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER ON THE
BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF
WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE TO EXIST AFTER
SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES LATE
TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND
FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC. AN
ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A
MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING
RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL
COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON
IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO.
MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH
MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT
OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL
5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
156 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORE MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER
ON THE BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO
EAST OF WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A
THUNDERSTORM. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE
TO EXIST AFTER SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE
MIDDLE 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR
FLIPS TO JULY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY
LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP
BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE
1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR
70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT
MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING
THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND
POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE
CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG
THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS
BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE
THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO.
MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH
MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO
20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL
CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A
GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL
DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE
EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT
TIMES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT...WINDS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MAD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.
TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 70 96 74 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 96 69 98 73 / 30 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 72 97 75 / 60 20 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 69 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 71 95 72 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/14/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ENHANCE
LAPSE RATES. DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR ALMOST ALL OF
PENNSYLVANIA. SO EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING TO LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS AND EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LARGER
VORTICIES DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE STRONGER THROUGH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A MORE SUMMERTIME
REGIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH
THE GFS/GEFS/EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN AND THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERS,
THAT A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
SO DESPITE A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VRY WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD BASES BETWEEN
3.5-4.5 KFT AGL FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AS A WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A FEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/SCT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA.
THU-FRI...AGAIN MAINLY VFR....BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING HELPED TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR THE REGION. THIS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND AREAS OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS BEFORE DUSK.
12Z OPER MODEL...LATEST 09Z SREF...AND HRRR CONSENSUS FAVORS
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA TONIGHT WITH MODEST QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE AS THE SFC LOW REACHES LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND IT/S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
REGION USHERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AIR.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SEND A FEW PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST
ACROSS PENN. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORMATION OF A
DISTINCT LEE TROUGH IN THE BLYR TO FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
A SECOND AREA OR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LESS INTENSE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PENN AND THE ALLEGHENIES LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AND MEAN
UPPER TROUGH.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TRSA
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BASED ON MDTLY STG...20 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUES AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGHER ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...A LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THAT AREA MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OFFER THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND...THE WARMTH AND SLIGHT
MUGGINESS ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 5-10F THAN THE ACTUAL DAYTIME
TEMPS WE HAD SATURDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WELCOME.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ON D3/WED AS THE
MAIN MID-LVL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
UPSTATE NY/CENTRAL PA BY 18Z. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO D2 WITH THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY/LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD INTO ERN PA. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND POSE AT LEAST A
LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
THE LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT WITH
TIME...PERHAPS REVERTING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MID-
LATITUDE FLOW REGIME WITH THE MAIN BELT OF ZONAL WESTERLIES
ALIGNED NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
DESPITE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF
THE WRN THROUGH FROM THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLC
REGION...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN RECOVERY MODE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN REMAINS LOW
ALTHOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING RAINS
THU/FRI ALONG THE D3/WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO
BECOME QUASI-STNRY FROM SRN NJ WSWWD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VRY WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD BASES BETWEEN
3.5-4.5 KFT AGL FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AS A WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A FEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/SCT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
TSRA.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA.
THU-FRI...AGAIN MAINLY VFR....BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THROUGH
6/28...OUR TWO LCD CLIMATE SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ ARE
RANKED 8TH AND 6TH RESPECTIVELY FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PD.
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY 18Z. THUS...AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH AFT AND EVE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED. SOME
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR AS AMPLIFICATION COMMENCES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH TO COVER THE LATENIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME EXPANSION TO THE REST OF THE MID-STATE IS
ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR OUTPUT THROUGH 00Z. THE KBNA
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE 750MB-
550MB LAYER AND A PW VALUE OF ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...SO ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER SPC...WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIMEFRAME ATTM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH TAF SITES...GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. THINK HIGHS WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ESPECIALLY WEST WITH MOST
LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 80S EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SPARK NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND DECREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS ON THAT FRONT IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL SAY
GOODBYE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
PINPOINTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE QUITE DIFFICULT SINCE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL DEVIATE FROM DAY TO DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AROUND THE CORNER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT THINK
THE AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTION
PATTERN OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 69 88 68 / 30 40 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 85 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 40
CROSSVILLE 81 66 81 65 / 30 30 60 50
COLUMBIA 86 68 87 68 / 30 40 50 30
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 86 68 / 30 40 50 30
WAVERLY 85 69 87 69 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS...DETERIORATING INTO IFR TEMPORARILY
IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...WATCH FOR STRONG MICROBURST TYPE
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 01-02Z. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS/FOG
WITH SETUP UP AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
LOOKING FOR KRST TO SLIP INTO IFR AFTER 07Z AND KLSE AROUND 09Z.
PLAN ON IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR RANGE AGAIN AFTER 14Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OR APPROXIMATELY 2-8PM TIME
FRAME. WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE CULPRIT...A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS WRITING...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHEAST WI. A COUPLE
1 INCH HAIL REPORTS CAME OUT OF THE DULUTH MN NWS OFFICE. MAIN
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL OF AROUND
AN INCH TO POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZE. SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE
MICROBURST TYPE WINDS OF 40-50 MPH GIVEN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
BEING DEPICTED BY THE NAM/RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IMPULSE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM/HRRR...SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE 29.00Z DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z
TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN ARE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES. THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/RAP
SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MANLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THIS LAYER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM AND 29.03Z RAP BUILD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. WITH THE
29.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA.
THE 29.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING A FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTION
WITH THE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLUS...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND DEVELOP A DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WESTERN SHIFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 29.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IS TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 29.00Z MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE IMPULSES. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015
FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS...DETERIORATING INTO IFR
TEMPORARILY IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...WATCH FOR STRONG
MICROBURST TYPE WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION
TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 01-02Z. LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS/FOG WITH SETUP UP AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOOKING FOR KRST TO SLIP INTO
IFR AFTER 07Z AND KLSE AROUND 09Z. PLAN ON IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR
RANGE AGAIN AFTER 14Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION...DAS