Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/28/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG HRS ACRS THE FA. A CDFNT IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO NRN AR FRI AFTN. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL DVLP ALONG
THE FNT...PRODUCING MAINLY MVFR CONDS. CONVECTION WL BCM MORE
ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS SWD INTO CNTRL AR BY EARLY FRI EVENING...
AND EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SRN AR LATE IN THE FCST PD. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS BEGIN TO POP IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO... HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...DO HAVE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HRRR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD FIRE AS FAR NORTH AS
LITTLE ROCK...BUT DO HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE
RAIN. AS A RESULT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND HELP TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY. 12Z WRF
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z
ON FRIDAY. DO THINK THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...BUT BELIEVE THE WRF IS MUCH TOO QUICK. THEREFORE JUST KEPT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL NOT BE
OUTRAGEOUS...BUT DO EXPECT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY WITH DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE SHORT TERM ENDS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. INITIALLY...BEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT DO THINK SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
EXIST FURTHER SOUTH BY LATE MON INTO TUE WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT.
SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR TUE AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM JUST BELOW
NORMAL...TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE...AND AR IN GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER DESERTS
DUE TO DISTANT STORMS. MORE HUMID AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BEGINNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH STORM CHANCES
EXPANDING TO MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN MONSOON STORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIMES BUT WARMER OVERNIGHTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION... AS EXPECTED...TODAY WAS NOT QUITE AS ACTIVE ACROSS
OUR CWA THEN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WHEN A WEAK INVERTED TROF
HELPED TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
DID AGAIN DEVELOP OVER GILA COUNTY...TODAY/S ACTIVITY WAS MORE
FOCUSED OVER SE AZ...WITH TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SEEING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOWS FROM
THE STORMS OVER THE TUCSON AREA DID ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTHWARD...THEY
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ANOTHER AREA
THAT ACTUALLY SAW A FEW SPRINKLES TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THAT KEPT HIGHS DOWN AT/BELOW 100 WAS THE YUMA AREA. THE
CLOUDINESS OVER THAT AREA IS NOW BEGINNING TO THIN/CLEAR AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IS CONCERNED...IT SHOULD BE
PRETTY QUIET...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PRETTY MUCH OVER THE TUCSON CWA. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE LOOKING GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS SITUATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER
LOCATED OVER FAR NCENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. H5 HEIGHTS
REMAINED HIGH ACROSS SRN AZ...NEAR 592DM AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THE CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RAPIDLY CLIMBING TOWARDS 110 DEGREES
AS OF 1 PM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WERE ELEVATED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...RANGING FROM UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT DESERT CONVECTION.
RADAR AS WELL AS IR/LIGHTNING IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SERN AZ AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT LITTLE WAS HAPPENING
CONVECTIVELY OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. PART OF THE REDUCTION IN
CONVECTION IS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...GIVING THE SRN DESERTS A WEAK ELY STEERING
FLOW MOSTLY AOB 15KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH CAPE
VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 200J/KG. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ACT
TO CAP CONVECTION SOMEWHAT OVER OUR AREA WITH THE ONLY REAL THREAT
FOR STORMS TO FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
ESSENTIALLY WE ARE LOOKING AT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS ZONE 24 AND SINGLE
DIGIT POPS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE RATHER LOW GRADE CONDITIONS...THE
THREAT OF BLOWING DUST INTO NRN PINAL COUNTY OR THE EAST VALLEY WILL
BE MINIMAL AS WELL. LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST OF THE HOTTER
DESERTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLOW THROUGH THE 700-500MB LAYER BECOMES A BIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ELEVATED IN VELOCITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ
FIRST ON SUNDAY BUT THEN EXPANDS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ
LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. PWATS NEAR THE 1.25 INCH MARK AND
850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED INTO THE 8-10C RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA TIER AND 10C+ ACROSS SW AZ AND SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN THE 500MB HIGH CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD ALLOW FOR MORE INVERTED TROUGHING TO SKIRT
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. CONCEPTUALLY WITH THE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE AND
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
PROFILE...STORM ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR SUNDAY AND CWA-WIDE BY MONDAY AS MOISTURE REACHES BEYOND
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WARRANT CONTINUED ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER ONE DAY`S
FORECAST MAY BE OFFSET BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S ACTIVITY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER AND CLOSER TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS WHILE THE OVERNIGHTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD TO WARM SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... OUTFLOWS
FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TUCSON AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE GREATER PHX AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SE-LY WINDS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH
EACH TAF SITE. AS THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST. WINDS
WILL THEN REVERT BACK TO TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS AT ALL OF
THE PHOENIX TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. SCT-BKN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT BOTH
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
EASTERN ARIZONA TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK BEFORE STORM CHANCES EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WETTING
RAINS TENDING TO BE LOCALIZED. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE
TRENDING UPWARD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB/NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING ABOUT THE PAST
30-60 MINUTES ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. THE REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP
ECHOES AS PER KEMX WSR-88D AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
CLEARING SKIES MAY THEN OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FRI FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA WILL MOSTLY END AROUND 26/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH
OF KTUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE
WIND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY MAY BE A BIT LESS ACTIVE DAY BUT
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY
LIGHTNING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED THIS WEEKEND. WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN AND RECONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON NORTH AND WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WEAK INVERTED
TROUGHS IN THE FLOW TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION...PERHAPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THESE ARE SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS
FAR OUT. BOTTOM LINE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR AN
OVERALL MID GRADE MONSOON THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT CERTAINLY
ACTIVE FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER DESERTS
DUE TO DISTANT STORMS. MORE HUMID AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BEGINNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH STORM CHANCES
EXPANDING TO MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASE IN MONSOON STORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIMES BUT WARMER OVERNIGHTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION... AS EXPECTED...TODAY WAS NOT QUITE AS ACTIVE ACROSS
OUR CWA THEN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WHEN A WEAK INVERTED TROF
HELPED TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
DID AGAIN DEVELOP OVER GILA COUNTY...TODAY/S ACTIVITY WAS MORE
FOCUSED OVER SE AZ...WITH TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SEEING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOWS FROM
THE STORMS OVER THE TUCSON AREA DID ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTHWARD...THEY
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ANOTHER AREA
THAT ACTUALLY SAW A FEW SPRINKLES TODAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THAT KEPT HIGHS DOWN AT/BELOW 100 WAS THE YUMA AREA. THE
CLOUDINESS OVER THAT AREA IS NOW BEGINNING TO THIN/CLEAR AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IS CONCERNED...IT SHOULD BE
PRETTY QUIET...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PRETTY MUCH OVER THE TUCSON CWA. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE LOOKING GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS SITUATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER
LOCATED OVER FAR NCENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. H5 HEIGHTS
REMAINED HIGH ACROSS SRN AZ...NEAR 592DM AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THE CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RAPIDLY CLIMBING TOWARDS 110 DEGREES
AS OF 1 PM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WERE ELEVATED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...RANGING FROM UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT DESERT CONVECTION.
RADAR AS WELL AS IR/LIGHTNING IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SERN AZ AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT LITTLE WAS HAPPENING
CONVECTIVELY OVER SRN GILA COUNTY. PART OF THE REDUCTION IN
CONVECTION IS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...GIVING THE SRN DESERTS A WEAK ELY STEERING
FLOW MOSTLY AOB 15KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH CAPE
VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 200J/KG. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ACT
TO CAP CONVECTION SOMEWHAT OVER OUR AREA WITH THE ONLY REAL THREAT
FOR STORMS TO FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
ESSENTIALLY WE ARE LOOKING AT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS ZONE 24 AND SINGLE
DIGIT POPS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE RATHER LOW GRADE CONDITIONS...THE
THREAT OF BLOWING DUST INTO NRN PINAL COUNTY OR THE EAST VALLEY WILL
BE MINIMAL AS WELL. LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MOST OF THE HOTTER
DESERTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLOW THROUGH THE 700-500MB LAYER BECOMES A BIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ELEVATED IN VELOCITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ
FIRST ON SUNDAY BUT THEN EXPANDS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ
LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. PWATS NEAR THE 1.25 INCH MARK AND
850MB DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED INTO THE 8-10C RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA TIER AND 10C+ ACROSS SW AZ AND SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN THE 500MB HIGH CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD ALLOW FOR MORE INVERTED TROUGHING TO SKIRT
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. CONCEPTUALLY WITH THE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE AND
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
PROFILE...STORM ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR SUNDAY AND CWA-WIDE BY MONDAY AS MOISTURE REACHES BEYOND
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WARRANT CONTINUED ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER ONE DAY`S
FORECAST MAY BE OFFSET BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S ACTIVITY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER AND CLOSER TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS WHILE THE OVERNIGHTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD TO WARM SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES OF OUTFLOWS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE METRO AREA. THUS...GOING WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS AT ALL
PHOENIX TAF SITES. LIKELY LOOKING AT SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
GUSTINESS OUT OF THE WEST EVENTUALLY TURNING AROUND OUT OF THE EAST
RIGHT BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT BOTH
TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
EASTERN ARIZONA TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK BEFORE STORM CHANCES EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WETTING
RAINS TENDING TO BE LOCALIZED. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE
TRENDING UPWARD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB/NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SOME OF
IT HEAVY AT TIMES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
800 AM MONDAY...
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN WINDHAM...
BENNINGTON...BERKSHIRE...EASTERN RENSSELAER AND EASTER COLUMBIA
COUNTIES FROM 100 AM THROUGH 200 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION TRENDS CONTINUE AS BEFORE...BETTER ORGANIZED RAIN
SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...LESS SO TO THE WEST.
850-700MB FGEN HAS BEEN DRIVING PRECIP THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING ON EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
/ENX VWP SHOWS 35-40 KNOTS AT 2-3KFT/ HAS KEPT RAINFALL MINIMAL IN
CAPITAL DISTRICT. DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHTER TOTALS THERE AS WELL. HRRR SHOWS DRY SLOT
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING...BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. SO AS FAR AS THE FORECAST
GOES...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT
AND LABELLED PRECIP AS INTERMITTENT. HAVE KEPT 100 PERCENT FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED QPF SOME ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES.
ADDITIONALLY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING ON...POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
RANGE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END.
HOWEVER...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
NORTHWARD...SO GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS
(EVEN SOME DRIZZLE) WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY
NOT HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MILDER AIR THE
LONGEST...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS
THERE WILL BE IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AT FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATER ON DUE TO POSSIBLE SURFACE HEATING
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE TSTM. THIS
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES FURTHER NORTHEAST LIMITING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. SO A GRADUAL PULL BACK IN THE
POPS/WX IS FORECAST INCLUDING SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SINUSOIDAL WAVES WILL DICTATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN OSCILLATING PATTERN
BETWEEN TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...27/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR CLEVELAND...SOME GOOD
DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR OUR REGION. A CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT ALSO BE RULED OUT AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE 6.0 C/KM IS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MODEL MEMBERS. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IN QUESTION
WITH NO CONSISTENT MEMBERS BETWEEN THE PROBABILISTIC MODEL RUNS. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NY STATE AS
WE GO INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED MORE DEFINED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....AS WE GO TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS OUR REGION
IS IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80 KT JET WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOME 27/12Z MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY BY FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING SOME CONTINUED
TRANQUIL WEATHER. SOME 12Z MODEL DATA IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
EVENING UNDER WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GOOD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE OTHER MODEL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRING MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS...THUS
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL PREVAIL.
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT PREVAILING
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR. STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
THROUGH THE EARLY-MID TAF PERIOD. STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HAVE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT KALB AND
KPSF. THERE...NOT EXPECTING ANY IFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T
RULE OUT OCCASIONAL IFR. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOWARD SUNRISE.
HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPSF...BUT SO TOO WILL BE WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. SO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
THE NAM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE. 12Z RUN HAD ONE TO 3.5 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE 18Z NAM RUN HAS NOW
REDUCED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS. GETTING A GOOD LOOK ON RADAR NOW AT THE AREA OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION. BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADARS AND PCPN OBSERVATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR THE REGION LOOKS GOOD...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
FLOODING...BUT WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SINCE RAIN HASN/T
EVEN STARTED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAINFALL
INTENSITY MAY PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY.
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ONLY ABOUT A HALF DOZEN FORECAST POINTS
RISING TO ABOVE THE CAUTION STAGE. 5 OF THE 6 POINTS ARE SLOW
RESPONDING RESERVOIR/LAKE LEVEL FORECASTS. THE OTHER IS RIVERBANK
WHICH IS ALSO USUALLY VERY SLOW TO RESPOND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SOME OF
IT HEAVY AT TIMES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
800 AM MONDAY...
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN WINDHAM...
BENNINGTON...BERKSHIRE...EASTERN RENSSELAER AND EASTER COLUMBIA
COUNTIES FROM 100 AM THROUGH 200 PM SUNDAY...
THE RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE DIFFUSE NORTH
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME EVIDENCE OF RAINFALL DRYING UP ON
RADAR. EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
NORTH. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING NORTH FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. HRRR SHOWS THIS TOO WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO CHANGES MADE TO PRECIP
ELEMENTS - POPS...QPF FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
TEMPS HAVE COOLED QUICKLY WHERE PRECIP IS OCCURRING. SO HAVE
UPDATED CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING ON...POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
RANGE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END.
HOWEVER...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
NORTHWARD...SO GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS
(EVEN SOME DRIZZLE) WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY
NOT HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MILDER AIR THE
LONGEST...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS
THERE WILL BE IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AT FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATER ON DUE TO POSSIBLE SURFACE HEATING
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE TSTM. THIS
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES FURTHER NORTHEAST LIMITING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. SO A GRADUAL PULL BACK IN THE
POPS/WX IS FORECAST INCLUDING SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SINUSOIDAL WAVES WILL DICTATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN OSCILLATING PATTERN
BETWEEN TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...27/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR CLEVELAND...SOME GOOD
DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR OUR REGION. A CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT ALSO BE RULED OUT AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE 6.0 C/KM IS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MODEL MEMBERS. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IN QUESTION
WITH NO CONSISTENT MEMBERS BETWEEN THE PROBABILISTIC MODEL RUNS. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NY STATE AS
WE GO INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED MORE DEFINED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....AS WE GO TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS OUR REGION
IS IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80 KT JET WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOME 27/12Z MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY BY FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING SOME CONTINUED
TRANQUIL WEATHER. SOME 12Z MODEL DATA IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
EVENING UNDER WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GOOD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE OTHER MODEL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRING MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS...THUS
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL PREVAIL.
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT PREVAILING
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR. STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS
THROUGH THE EARLY-MID TAF PERIOD. STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HAVE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT KALB AND
KPSF. THERE...NOT EXPECTING ANY IFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T
RULE OUT OCCASIONAL IFR. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOWARD SUNRISE.
HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPSF...BUT SO TOO WILL BE WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. SO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
THE NAM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE. 12Z RUN HAD ONE TO 3.5 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE 18Z NAM RUN HAS NOW
REDUCED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS. GETTING A GOOD LOOK ON RADAR NOW AT THE AREA OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION. BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADARS AND PCPN OBSERVATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR THE REGION LOOKS GOOD...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
FLOODING...BUT WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SINCE RAIN HASN/T
EVEN STARTED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAINFALL
INTENSITY MAY PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY.
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ONLY ABOUT A HALF DOZEN FORECAST POINTS
RISING TO ABOVE THE CAUTION STAGE. 5 OF THE 6 POINTS ARE SLOW
RESPONDING RESERVOIR/LAKE LEVEL FORECASTS. THE OTHER IS RIVERBANK
WHICH IS ALSO USUALLY VERY SLOW TO RESPOND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MAZ001-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COMING SOON...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THIS UPDATE IS TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP...WX...SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP GRIGDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARDS THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP40/NAM. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DUE TO THE SHORT- WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE SHOWER SHOULD DIMINISH
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE EARLY PM.
HIGHS MOSTLY 70 TO 80 WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGICAL EYES WILL BE WATCHING WHAT TRANSPIRES
UPSTREAM AS NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS DIGGING/PHASING
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE MAY APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COMING SOON...
IMPRESSIVE STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IMPACT
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD FOLLOWS WITH MINOR UPDATES PER THE 00Z
GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC WAVE MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER TOWARDS A MID LEVEL JET CONFLUENT REGION OVER E-OH AND W-PA
BY MID MORNING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES QUICKLY ON THE
290-300K SFC BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING AND STRENGTHENING HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST /1022MB/ ...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AND WRN PA BY THE EARLY PM WITH SUB
1000MB EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW
FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
RUNNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE...AND THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD OVER SPREAD THE REGION BY THE EARLY EVENING. AN
ANOMALOUS H850/925 E/SE LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE TO
BETTER THAN 40KTS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE E/SE WINDS OF 45-55KTS
OVER THE FCST AREA BY 8 PM SAT. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAIN BY SAT EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
AND U60S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SEGMENTED HWO. THE GEFS INDICATE ANOMALOUS LLJ WITH U-WIND
ANOMALIES 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL /STRONG
EASTERLIES/ AND STRONG V-WIND ANOMALIES /STRONG SOUTHERLIES/ 3 TO
5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL. HENCE...A SE LOW-LEVEL
JET MAX WILL FOCUS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE E/SE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ERN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS..BERKS...AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. PWATS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE UP TO 3 STD IS
CURRENT PROGGED. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW WHERE THE E/SE WINDS MAY
GUST CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SRN GREENS IN SRN
VT...NRN TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY THE NRN BERKS. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO SFC THROUGH A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE SOUNDINGS AND ITS OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY. WE WILL
MENTION THE THREAT AND CONTINUE WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAS IN THE
HWO. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE
FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT PM
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM GUIDANCE...WITH
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING SOME 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS. PER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION FROM
SURROUNDING WFOS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MENTION IN THE
HWO. ZONE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THE 3/6-HR TIME FRAME.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE CONTINUED WITH RAIN...HVY AT
TIMES...SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGGED
EVEN LOWER WITH SUB ZERO VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS NOW WANT TO ADVECT IN A DRY SLOT DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME. QUESTION IS IF WE
ARE ABLE TO SEE SOME INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH DESTABILIZATION.
WHILE THE MAIN THRUST OF ADVECTION WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTH...NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.
WE WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MOS VALUES WHICH REQUIRES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO LOWER HALF OF THE
70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AS
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS /AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC/ ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW U70S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NY AND
NEW ENGLAND. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...AS A WARM FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH BASED ON THE GEFS/GFS/ECMWF IMPACTS THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT-WAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL-NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S WITH SOME L70S. NOT SURE
ABOUT L70S THIS FAR OUT...BUT SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IF SUFFICIENT SFC
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING OCCURS. THE GFS FOR TUE CONTINUES TO HAVE 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS INDICATIVE OF SOME DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
THE GEFS HAVE PWATS RISE ABOUT 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO L80S. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE U50S TO
L60S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID AND U70S OVER
THE HILLS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPERED THE POPS DOWN FURTHER THURSDAY TO
NOTHING OR SLIGHT CHC...AS THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WX WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM. LOWS PRESSURE MAY MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT KPOU AS -RA MOVES IN TO LOWER VSBYS...PART
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEADING EAST.
THINGS LOOK MUCH WORSE JUST BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING. ONLY SUB-MARGINAL SHEAR AT KPOU TOWARD 18Z
SAT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 75
AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HSA WITH SOME UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING A LITTLE MORE. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES AT THIS
TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THIS UPDATE IS TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP...WX...SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP GRIGDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARDS THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP40/NAM. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DUE TO THE SHORT- WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE SHOWER SHOULD DIMINISH
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE EARLY PM.
HIGHS MOSTLY 70 TO 80 WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGICAL EYES WILL BE WATCHING WHAT TRANSPIRES
UPSTREAM AS NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS DIGGING/PHASING
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE MAY APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IMPACT
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD FOLLOWS WITH MINOR UPDATES PER THE 00Z
GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC WAVE MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER TOWARDS A MID LEVEL JET CONFLUENT REGION OVER E-OH AND W-PA
BY MID MORNING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES QUICKLY ON THE
290-300K SFC BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING AND STRENGTHENING HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST /1022MB/ ...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AND WRN PA BY THE EARLY PM WITH SUB
1000MB EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW
FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
RUNNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE...AND THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD OVER SPREAD THE REGION BY THE EARLY EVENING. AN
ANOMALOUS H850/925 E/SE LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE TO
BETTER THAN 40KTS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE E/SE WINDS OF 45-55KTS
OVER THE FCST AREA BY 8 PM SAT. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAIN BY SAT EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
AND U60S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SEGMENTED HWO. THE GEFS INDICATE ANOMALOUS LLJ WITH U-WIND
ANOMALIES 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL /STRONG
EASTERLIES/ AND STRONG V-WIND ANOMALIES /STRONG SOUTHERLIES/ 3 TO
5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL. HENCE...A SE LOW-LEVEL
JET MAX WILL FOCUS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE E/SE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ERN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS..BERKS...AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. PWATS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE UP TO 3 STD IS
CURRENT PROGGED. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW WHERE THE E/SE WINDS MAY
GUST CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SRN GREENS IN SRN
VT...NRN TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY THE NRN BERKS. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO SFC THROUGH A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE SOUNDINGS AND ITS OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY. WE WILL
MENTION THE THREAT AND CONTINUE WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAS IN THE
HWO. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE
FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT PM
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM GUIDANCE...WITH
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING SOME 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS. PER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION FROM
SURROUNDING WFOS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MENTION IN THE
HWO. ZONE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THE 3/6-HR TIME FRAME.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE CONTINUED WITH RAIN...HVY AT
TIMES...SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGGED
EVEN LOWER WITH SUB ZERO VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS NOW WANT TO ADVECT IN A DRY SLOT DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME. QUESTION IS IF WE
ARE ABLE TO SEE SOME INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH DESTABILIZATION.
WHILE THE MAIN THRUST OF ADVECTION WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTH...NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.
WE WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MOS VALUES WHICH REQUIRES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO LOWER HALF OF THE
70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WILL
FINALLY START TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S
FOR MOST PLACES.
BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER...ESP
EARLY IN THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...BUT MOST
AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
WITHIN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFT
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING BY CLOSE TO THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY JUST WHEN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA CAN FLATTEN
OUT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT KPOU AS -RA MOVES IN TO LOWER VSBYS...PART
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEADING EAST.
THINGS LOOK MUCH WORSE JUST BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING. ONLY SUB-MARGINAL SHEAR AT KPOU TOWARD 18Z
SAT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL
OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH THE LOWER
VALUES NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE
AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 75 TO 100 PERCENT
RANGE AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY AS WET WEATHER SPREADS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HSA WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLE THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT A FEW SITES AT THIS TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THIS UPDATE IS TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP...WX...SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP GRIGDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARDS THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP40/NAM. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DUE TO THE SHORT- WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE SHOWER SHOULD DIMINISH
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE EARLY PM.
HIGHS MOSTLY 70 TO 80 WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGICAL EYES WILL BE WATCHING WHAT TRANSPIRES
UPSTREAM AS NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS DIGGING/PHASING
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE MAY APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IMPACT
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD FOLLOWS WITH MINOR UPDATES PER THE 00Z
GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC WAVE MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER TOWARDS A MID LEVEL JET CONFLUENT REGION OVER E-OH AND W-PA
BY MID MORNING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES QUICKLY ON THE
290-300K SFC BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING AND STRENGTHENING HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST /1022MB/ ...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AND WRN PA BY THE EARLY PM WITH SUB
1000MB EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW
FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
RUNNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE...AND THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD OVER SPREAD THE REGION BY THE EARLY EVENING. AN
ANOMALOUS H850/925 E/SE LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE TO
BETTER THAN 40KTS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE E/SE WINDS OF 45-55KTS
OVER THE FCST AREA BY 8 PM SAT. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAIN BY SAT EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
AND U60S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SEGMENTED HWO. THE GEFS INDICATE ANOMALOUS LLJ WITH U-WIND
ANOMALIES 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL /STRONG
EASTERLIES/ AND STRONG V-WIND ANOMALIES /STRONG SOUTHERLIES/ 3 TO
5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL. HENCE...A SE LOW-LEVEL
JET MAX WILL FOCUS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE E/SE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ERN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS..BERKS...AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. PWATS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE UP TO 3 STD IS
CURRENT PROGGED. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW WHERE THE E/SE WINDS MAY
GUST CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SRN GREENS IN SRN
VT...NRN TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY THE NRN BERKS. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO SFC THROUGH A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE SOUNDINGS AND ITS OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY. WE WILL
MENTION THE THREAT AND CONTINUE WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAS IN THE
HWO. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE
FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT PM
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM GUIDANCE...WITH
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING SOME 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS. PER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION FROM
SURROUNDING WFOS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MENTION IN THE
HWO. ZONE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THE 3/6-HR TIME FRAME.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE CONTINUED WITH RAIN...HVY AT
TIMES...SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGGED
EVEN LOWER WITH SUB ZERO VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS NOW WANT TO ADVECT IN A DRY SLOT DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME. QUESTION IS IF WE
ARE ABLE TO SEE SOME INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH DESTABILIZATION.
WHILE THE MAIN THRUST OF ADVECTION WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTH...NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.
WE WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MOS VALUES WHICH REQUIRES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO LOWER HALF OF THE
70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WILL
FINALLY START TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S
FOR MOST PLACES.
BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER...ESP
EARLY IN THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...BUT MOST
AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
WITHIN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFT
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING BY CLOSE TO THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY JUST WHEN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA CAN FLATTEN
OUT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT KPOU AS
-RA MOVES IN TO LOWER VSBYS...PART OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEADING EAST. THINGS LOOK MUCH WORSE JUST
BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING. ONLY
SUB-MARGINAL SHEAR AT KPOU TOWARD 18Z SAT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL
OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH THE LOWER
VALUES NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE
AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 75 TO 100 PERCENT
RANGE AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY AS WET WEATHER SPREADS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HSA WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLE THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT A FEW SITES AT THIS TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...THIS UPDATE IS TO RETOOL THE POP TRENDS AND
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP40/NAM. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DUE TO THE
SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE SHOWER
SHOULD DIMINISH NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE
EARLY PM.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGICAL EYES WILL BE WATCHING WHAT TRANSPIRES
UPSTREAM AS NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS DIGGING/PHASING
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE MAY APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IMPACT
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD FOLLOWS WITH MINOR UPDATES PER THE 00Z
GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC WAVE MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER TOWARDS A MID LEVEL JET CONFLUENT REGION OVER E-OH AND W-PA
BY MID MORNING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES QUICKLY ON THE
290-300K SFC BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING AND STRENGTHENING HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST /1022MB/ ...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AND WRN PA BY THE EARLY PM WITH SUB
1000MB EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW
FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
RUNNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE...AND THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD OVER SPREAD THE REGION BY THE EARLY EVENING. AN
ANOMALOUS H850/925 E/SE LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE TO
BETTER THAN 40KTS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE E/SE WINDS OF 45-55KTS
OVER THE FCST AREA BY 8 PM SAT. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAIN BY SAT EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
AND U60S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SEGMENTED HWO. THE GEFS INDICATE ANOMALOUS LLJ WITH U-WIND
ANOMALIES 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL /STRONG
EASTERLIES/ AND STRONG V-WIND ANOMALIES /STRONG SOUTHERLIES/ 3 TO
5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL. HENCE...A SE LOW-LEVEL
JET MAX WILL FOCUS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE E/SE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ERN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS..BERKS...AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. PWATS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE UP TO 3 STD IS
CURRENT PROGGED. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW WHERE THE E/SE WINDS MAY
GUST CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SRN GREENS IN SRN
VT...NRN TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY THE NRN BERKS. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO SFC THROUGH A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE SOUNDINGS AND ITS OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY. WE WILL
MENTION THE THREAT AND CONTINUE WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAS IN THE
HWO. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE
FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT PM
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM GUIDANCE...WITH
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING SOME 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS. PER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION FROM
SURROUNDING WFOS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MENTION IN THE
HWO. ZONE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THE 3/6-HR TIME FRAME.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE CONTINUED WITH RAIN...HVY AT
TIMES...SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGGED
EVEN LOWER WITH SUB ZERO VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS NOW WANT TO ADVECT IN A DRY SLOT DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME. QUESTION IS IF WE
ARE ABLE TO SEE SOME INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH DESTABILIZATION.
WHILE THE MAIN THRUST OF ADVECTION WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTH...NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.
WE WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MOS VALUES WHICH REQUIRES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO LOWER HALF OF THE
70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WILL
FINALLY START TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S
FOR MOST PLACES.
BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER...ESP
EARLY IN THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...BUT MOST
AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
WITHIN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFT
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING BY CLOSE TO THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY JUST WHEN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA CAN FLATTEN
OUT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT KPOU AS
-RA MOVES IN TO LOWER VSBYS...PART OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEADING EAST. THINGS LOOK MUCH WORSE JUST
BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING. ONLY
SUB-MARGINAL SHEAR AT KPOU TOWARD 18Z SAT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL
OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH THE LOWER
VALUES NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE
AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 75 TO 100 PERCENT
RANGE AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY AS WET WEATHER SPREADS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HSA WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLE THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT A FEW SITES AT THIS TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...THIS UPDATE IS TO RETOOL THE POP TRENDS AND
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP40/NAM. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DUE TO THE
SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE SHOWER
SHOULD DIMINISH NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE
EARLY PM.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGICAL EYES WILL BE WATCHING WHAT TRANSPIRES
UPSTREAM AS NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS DIGGING/PHASING
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE MAY APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IMPACT
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD FOLLOWS WITH MINOR UPDATES PER THE 00Z
GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...THE 26/00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC WAVE MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER TOWARDS A MID LEVEL JET CONFLUENT REGION OVER E-OH AND W-PA
BY MID MORNING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES QUICKLY ON THE
290-300K SFC BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING AND STRENGTHENING HIGH
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST /1022MB/ ...AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AND WRN PA BY THE EARLY PM WITH SUB
1000MB EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW
FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER
RUNNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE...AND THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD OVER SPREAD THE REGION BY THE EARLY EVENING. AN
ANOMALOUS H850/925 E/SE LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE TO
BETTER THAN 40KTS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE E/SE WINDS OF 45-55KTS
OVER THE FCST AREA BY 8 PM SAT. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAIN BY SAT EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
AND U60S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SEGMENTED HWO. THE GEFS INDICATE ANOMALOUS LLJ WITH U-WIND
ANOMALIES 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL /STRONG
EASTERLIES/ AND STRONG V-WIND ANOMALIES /STRONG SOUTHERLIES/ 3 TO
5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL. HENCE...A SE LOW-LEVEL
JET MAX WILL FOCUS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE E/SE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ERN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS..BERKS...AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. PWATS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE UP TO 3 STD IS
CURRENT PROGGED. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW WHERE THE E/SE WINDS MAY
GUST CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SRN GREENS IN SRN
VT...NRN TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY THE NRN BERKS. IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO SFC THROUGH A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE SOUNDINGS AND ITS OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY. WE WILL
MENTION THE THREAT AND CONTINUE WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAS IN THE
HWO. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE
FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT PM
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM GUIDANCE...WITH
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING SOME 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS. PER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION FROM
SURROUNDING WFOS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MENTION IN THE
HWO. ZONE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THE 3/6-HR TIME FRAME.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE CONTINUED WITH RAIN...HVY AT
TIMES...SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGGED
EVEN LOWER WITH SUB ZERO VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TO
WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS NOW WANT TO ADVECT IN A DRY SLOT DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME. QUESTION IS IF WE
ARE ABLE TO SEE SOME INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH DESTABILIZATION.
WHILE THE MAIN THRUST OF ADVECTION WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTH...NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.
WE WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MOS VALUES WHICH REQUIRES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO LOWER HALF OF THE
70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WILL
FINALLY START TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S
FOR MOST PLACES.
BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER...ESP
EARLY IN THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...BUT MOST
AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
WITHIN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...ESP DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFT
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING BY CLOSE TO THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY JUST WHEN THE FLOW AT 500 HPA CAN FLATTEN
OUT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT KPOU AS
-RA MOVES IN TO LOWER VSBYS...PART OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEADING EAST. THINGS LOOK MUCH WORSE JUST
BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING. ONLY
SUB-MARGINAL SHEAR AT KPOU TOWARD 18Z SAT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL
OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH THE LOWER
VALUES NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE
AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 75 TO 100 PERCENT
RANGE AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY AS WET WEATHER SPREADS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HSA WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLE THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT A FEW SITES AT THIS TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OVER OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM.
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT UNDERWAY WITH A NUMBER OF LOCATION
RECEIVING 3+ INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. MONITOR
WEBSITE FOR ALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 21Z RUC WAS
USED TO PUSH THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. 21Z
RUC ALSO DID A GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS
AND WAS PRIMARILY USED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES HERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CURRENT ACTIVE WEATHER.
THE STRONG LOW WILL BE ACROSS NRN NJ SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FAVOR A DRYING WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE
STEADY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY WILL LIFT OUT...LEAVING OUR
AREA IN AN IMPROVING PATTERN. A COUPLE SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN POPS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
SUNNY FROM S TO N AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE SRN AREAS...WHERE WE HAVE THE
GREATEST DURATION OF SUNSHINE. ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WINDS...MOSTLY WRLY AND BECOME GUSTY (20
TO 25 MPH) DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE D+3 THRU D+7 PERIOD FEATURES
A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A TROUGH OVER THE GRT LKS.
STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING BY JUNE STANDARDS IS ALSO PRESENT...
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE -NAO/+PNA PATTERN...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST IS WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF S/WV
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WEST COAST RIDGE...AS THE GRT LAKES TROUGH
TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT BY MID-WEEK. OVERALL...A
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND BLW AVG HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER THRU THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS GENERALLY AOB SEASONAL NORMS.
DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT AND MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COMMA HEAD
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST.
A -SHRA IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUN NIGHT OVER THE POCONOS. INCREASING
SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON MON...AS S/WV RIDGING AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET MOVE IN ALOFT...SUPPORTING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVG...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
TUE...LOW PRES MOVING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL LEAD TO A WARM FROPA...
BUT ONSHORE FLOW MAY INHIBIT THIS...AND THE FRONT COULD STALL FOR A
TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOIST WILL INCREASE AS A
S/WV APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
ATTM...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT COINCIDE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE BOTH
UNCERTAIN...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW-
LEVEL HELICITY INVOF THE BOUNDARY...SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING.
WED...LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS A BONAFIED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ATTM...MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 18Z...WHICH PLACES THE EMPHASIS FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF HERE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO SLOW
DOWN...WHICH COULD PROLONG CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO WED NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA SEASONAL LEVELS.
THU...HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVES IN...BUT STALLED FRONT NEAR DELMARVA
COULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME -SHRA OVER THIS
AREA. TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FOR AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
FRI AND SAT...CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODEL SPREAD EXISTS
IN HANDLING S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING GRT LKS TROUGH. SOLUTIONS VARY...
FROM THE FLATTER UKMET TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THE LATTER WOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GRT LKS W/REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...GIVEN RAINFALL OCCURING THIS
WEEKEND...THUS ANTICIPATED WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE TAFS WITH THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IFR OR IN THE LOW RANGE OF MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE GENERALLY MVFR WITH VFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MOSTLY ERLY/SERLY THEN SWITCHING TO WRLY BEFORE SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE THRU WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...PARTICULARLY I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTHWEST.
THU...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH NJ AND DELMARVA TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS DEVELOPED AND WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING FOR WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO
LITTLE EGG INLET. GALE WARNING UNTIL 400 AM SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUNDAY. SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...SCA NOW IN EFFECT THRU 21Z SUN MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RESIDUAL 5 FOOT SEAS.
MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BLW SCA THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY...INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SCA CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDING SEAS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS RESULT IN MULTIPLE WARNINGS FOR FLOODING
IN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY, MANY STILL ONGOING.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 500 AM SUNDAY.
ALSO, THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES CECIL COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND NEW
CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE.
GENERALLY, SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE
DURING THIS EVENT ALONG WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE MAIN
RIVERS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH, THE SCHUYLKILL AND THE DELAWARE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW UP THE DELAWARE BAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
LOOKING AT MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWAREBEACHES FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
MARINE...FRANCK/SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE MACON AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BETWEEN 02-05 UTC.
WONDERING IF SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE CONVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH GEORGIA CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AND EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY. RIGHT NOW NOT QUITE BUYING IT AS THE
CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND IS QUITE MODEST AND HRRR HAS A HABIT OF
OVERDOING CONVECTION BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL WILL KEEP THE FIELDS CONVECTION FREE OVERNIGHT WITH VCSH
IN THE SAINT SIMONS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLY OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WITH SHORT
DURATION WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TONIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 74 89 73 / 60 60 60 40
SSI 89 77 87 76 / 60 50 70 60
JAX 91 76 90 75 / 50 50 70 60
SGJ 90 76 90 76 / 40 20 60 50
GNV 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 60
OCF 91 75 90 75 / 30 20 60 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
457 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS ARE SHOWING THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION THAT
WILL COMPLETE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENT PATTERN
CONSISTS OF RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THEN DIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING TO A MUCH GREATER
AMPLIFICATION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN UNUSUALLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF JUNE SUPPORTIVE OF A DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY WE FIND THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN A POSITION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AMPLIFICATION EVOLVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TOWARD LEVY
COUNTY...ANTICIPATE THESE QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...THE TYPICAL DAILY
SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED SCT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD TODAY...THIS
WILL PRESENT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME...WITH THE MOST DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST ZONES. SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME DAYS TEND TO
RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION THEN MIGRATING RAPIDLY INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FOR
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL USE THIS MODEL FOR THE
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST PUSH INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH A SLOWER
INLAND PROPAGATION DOWN TOWARD LEE/CHARLOTTE COUNTIES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES OF POLK/HIGHLANDS/HARDEE/DESOTO COUNTIES.
AWAY FROM THE STORMS...TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 90.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION LIKELY LINGERS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SEE DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT MOST DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL INLAND ZONES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LATE NIGHT SHOWERS ARE CLIMO FAVORED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO OUR NORTH. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
SEE A DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THE SEA-BREEZE WILL REMAIN LESS DEFINED AND
ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESS INLAND TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO
OCCUR TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. IN ADDITION TO THE
PATTERN...THE NWP ENSEMBLES ARE ALL SUGGESTING SOME MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
CLIMO NORMS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL. RAIN CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AREA BEACHES. HOWEVER...IF
HEADING TO THE BEACHES...KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR STRONGER AND MORE
FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS THREAT
FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND WILL HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SETTING
UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SUNDAY WILL
START OUT WITH A PATCH OF DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FARTHER NORTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY
FROM FLORIDA...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO DEGRADE AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT BACK NORTH TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH LIGHT
GRADIENT FLOW AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. OVERALL EXPECTING A TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE DAY
FOR THE FORECAST TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FOR KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ DURING THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING INLAND
TOWARD KLAL. FURTHER SOUTH...A SCATTERING OF STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KPGD/KFMY/KRSW BY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SETTLE SOUTH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE STEADY SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE HIGHEST
TO THE NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. WINDS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS
MAY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TAKE ON A TYPICAL PATTERN
TODAY...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 79 91 79 / 40 10 20 10
FMY 92 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 10
GIF 93 75 93 75 / 60 40 30 10
SRQ 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 10
BKV 92 74 92 74 / 40 10 20 10
SPG 90 80 91 79 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
850 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL
ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ENDING QUICKLY. INSTABILITY IS
DIMINISHING WITH TIME WITH THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSING TO THE
NORTH. SOME BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF CANDLER...JENKINS...SCREVEN AND POSSIBLY ALLENDALE COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH TIME. SOME REDEVELOPING IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE AND
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS TO FIT ONGOING TRENDS. LOWS
FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE COAST LOOK
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY ROBUST LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...THE STRUGGLING COLD FRONT WILL REALLY STRUGGLE MOVING INTO THE
CWA...AND IN FACT MAY NEVER MAKE IT AT THE SURFACE AS WINDS WILL NOT
TAKE ON MUCH IF ANY NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A MID
LEVEL FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH...BUT THE RECENT
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT...SO THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA STILL UNDER PWATS OF 2
INCHES OR GREATER AT 18Z SUNDAY. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE
POPS BY A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD...AND DECREASED THE TEMPS A
TOUCH DUE TO BOTH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/TSTMS. WHILE
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LESS THAN SATURDAY...THERE
STILL COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHEN THE DRY AIR STARTS WORKING IN ALOFT BUT THE SURFACE
REMAINS WARM AND MOIST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING
IN WITH MORE AUTHORITY OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST TROF AT 700 MB MOVES
THROUGH. THE DRYING...ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWER
VALUES THAN THEY HAVE IN A WHILE...WHICH IS REALLY ONLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S AS YOU GET
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
MONDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A LEE TROF OVER THE MIDLANDS
AND A WEAK HIGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
CONTINUE...SO POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE RELATIVELY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BUMP
BACK UP A BIT WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THE LOWER 90S SHOULD RULE THE
THERMOMETERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE
DRY OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY AND PWATS REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE FOR LATE JUNE. TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND THE WINDS TO
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN. WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DUE TO
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AS WELL AS THE
TYPICAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 90S
MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. GIVEN THE WEAKER MID
LEVEL CAPPING...DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...INITIAL CONCERN IS THE LINE OF TSTMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
KCHS TERMINAL THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LINE COULD BRUSH THE AIRPORT IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. EXPECT VFR OTHERWISE. THERE ARE COME HINTS THAT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS TO DEVELOP...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDING THIS
POSSIBILITY VERY WELL RIGHT NOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING THESE
CONDITIONS WITH THIS CYCLE.
KSAV...LINE OF TSTMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. A CLUSTER
OF STORMS NEAR KMCN COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE TERMINAL IN THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT
TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER SUNDAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS A GRADUAL DRYING PROCESS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE THREAT OF A
BRIEF DETERIORATION IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRONG NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY TO 20-25
KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS PER CHARLESTON COUNTY PILOT BOAT
REPORTS AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT. EXPECT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH
20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TO 2 AM AS GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THEN...MAINLY NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN BELOW SCA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT...BUT AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD
STILL CAUSE LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE A BIT
QUIETER ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING...BUT
WILL START TO COME BACK UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN A HIGH IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS/FRONTS
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST THAT ARE NEVER ABLE TO FULLY PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
525 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE. DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY...ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY SATURDAY. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2.0 SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN
END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONVERGENCE INTO A HEAT
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE
NIGHT DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNCERTAINTY WAS TOO HIGH TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS AT ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT WE DID INCLUDE A VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MORE
LIKELY TIME OF CONVECTION.
THE THREAT OF FOG IS LOW OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF CONTINUED
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
208 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT IS ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 105.
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE MODELS
ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS ABOVE
3000 J/KG OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS HAD CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND
2.O SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH THE MERCURY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONVERGENCE INTO A HEAT
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE
NIGHT DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNCERTAINTY WAS TOO HIGH TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS AT ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT WE DID INCLUDE A VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MORE
LIKELY TIME OF CONVECTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA
INDICATES A THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN IN SHOWERS...THE THREAT OF FOG IS LOW OVERNIGHT BECAUSE
OF CONTINUED INSTABILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT IS ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100.
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR
AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE
NORTH PART. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE MODELS
ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS ABOVE
3000 J/KG OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING HAD CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND
2.O SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH THE MERCURY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONVERGENCE INTO A HEAT
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE
NIGHT DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNCERTAINTY WAS TOO HIGH TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS AT ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT WE DID INCLUDE A VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MORE
LIKELY TIME OF CONVECTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA
INDICATES A THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN IN SHOWERS...THE THREAT OF FOG IS LOW OVERNIGHT BECAUSE
OF CONTINUED INSTABILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1231 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT IS ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100.
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR
AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE
NORTH PART. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE MODELS
ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS ABOVE
3000 J/KG OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING HAD CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY AS
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. PW
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2.O SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY...WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS...GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS
CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90 MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONVERGENCE INTO A HEAT
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF HAS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE
MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE
NIGHT DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNCERTAINTY WAS TOO HIGH TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS AT ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT WE DID INCLUDE A VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MORE
LIKELY TIME OF CONVECTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA
INDICATES A THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN IN SHOWERS...THE THREAT OF FOG IS LOW OVERNIGHT BECAUSE
OF CONTINUED INSTABILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
913 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS TO OUR
NORTH. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 100. SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY CONVERGENCE INTO A HEAT TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY AFTER 200 PM AND IN THE NORTH PART. THE SPC WRF HAS
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL
LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA
INDICATES A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY AS
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. PW
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2.O SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY...WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS...GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS
CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90 MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONVERGENCE INTO A HEAT
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY AFTER 200 PM. THE SPC WRF HAS THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTION EARLY. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL
LIFT LATE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING.
UNCERTAINTY WAS TOO HIGH TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN
THE TAFS AT ISSUANCE TIME...BUT WE DID INCLUDE A VICINITY MENTION
DURING THE MORE LIKELY TIME OF CONVECTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA
INDICATES A THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN IN SHOWERS...THE THREAT OF FOG IS LOW OVERNIGHT BECAUSE
OF CONTINUED INSTABILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL 10 PM TO INCLUDE
ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR KNOX...STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD SLOWLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PEORIA BY LATE MORNING WITH HEAVIEST RAINS OVER 1 INCH ALONG A
LEWISTOWN TO PEKIN TO BLOOMINGTON TO DANVILLE LINE. A QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS NEAR I-72 AND EXTENDED TO 1013 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MO BETWEEN KIRKSVILLE AND QUINCY. ANOTHER
1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MO. HRRR MODEL
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL AND USED THIS MODEL FOR FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO QUICKLY DEEPEN
TO 1006 MB AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR TERRE HAUTE INDIANA BY SUNSET.
HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 1 TO 2 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM
I-72 NORTH. SPC ALSO HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE IL SE OF A OLNEY TO ROBINSON LINE FOR 15%
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF
TORNADOES. ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK WAS SE OF LAWERNCE COUNTY AND
CENTERED OVER KY AND MID/NW TN. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S OVER
CENTRAL IL WITH LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL AND HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY...WITH
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/SE INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MCS THAT IMPACTED THE SE KILX CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS NOW TRACKED INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE A SECOND MCS
HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS COMPLEX INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER NORTH...STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE FRONT...WILL ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
SOUTH...WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANT THUNDER CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS LATER TODAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO INDIANA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A
GOOD PUSH SOUTHWARD...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY. EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN...HOWEVER THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT. BASED ON GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
ARE EMERGING. ONE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONABLE POPS DURING THOSE TIME
FRAMES...THEN HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THE REST OF THE TIME.
NEITHER OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS RECENT SYSTEMS...SO DESPITE POPS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEXT WEEK. MAIN STORY WILL THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IL
WILL BRING IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
AND GENERALLY LOWEST ALONG I-74 AIRPORTS OF PIA...BMI AND CMI
WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS AROUND 500 FT. RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MID/LATE EVENING AS 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE MO DEEPENS TO 1005 MB AS IT TRACKS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND COULD BE BELOW 1K FT OVER EASTERN TAF
SITES TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN
14-18Z SAT HAPPENING FIRST AT PIA AND LAST AT CMI. SSE WINDS NEAR
10 KTS OR LESS AT SPI AND DEC SHOULD VEER NE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL LATER THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NE WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY DURING TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM IL.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL 10 PM TO INCLUDE
ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR KNOX...STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD SLOWLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PEORIA BY LATE MORNING WITH HEAVIEST RAINS OVER 1 INCH ALONG A
LEWISTOWN TO PEKIN TO BLOOMINGTON TO DANVILLE LINE. A QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS NEAR I-72 AND EXTENDED TO 1013 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MO BETWEEN KIRKSVILLE AND QUINCY. ANOTHER
1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MO. HRRR MODEL
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL AND USED THIS MODEL FOR FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO QUICKLY DEEPEN
TO 1006 MB AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR TERRE HAUTE INDIANA BY SUNSET.
HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 1 TO 2 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM
I-72 NORTH. SPC ALSO HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE IL SE OF A OLNEY TO ROBINSON LINE FOR 15%
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF
TORNADOES. ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK WAS SE OF LAWERNCE COUNTY AND
CENTERED OVER KY AND MID/NW TN. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S OVER
CENTRAL IL WITH LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL AND HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY...WITH
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/SE INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MCS THAT IMPACTED THE SE KILX CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS NOW TRACKED INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE A SECOND MCS
HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS COMPLEX INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER NORTH...STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE FRONT...WILL ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
SOUTH...WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANT THUNDER CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS LATER TODAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO INDIANA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A
GOOD PUSH SOUTHWARD...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY. EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN...HOWEVER THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT. BASED ON GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
ARE EMERGING. ONE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONABLE POPS DURING THOSE TIME
FRAMES...THEN HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THE REST OF THE TIME.
NEITHER OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS RECENT SYSTEMS...SO DESPITE POPS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEXT WEEK. MAIN STORY WILL THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG HAS OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING WHILE REMNANTS OF AN MCS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AERA MOST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS AREA WILL
ALSO OCCUR...SO RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
TAF SITES. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL SITES AS THE MCS/LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD END AS
WELL BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW. CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON WEAK SHORTWAVE
CUTTING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SET UP IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY SHIFT NORTH ENOUGH TO THE IOWA BORDER
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IS THE FARTHEST
EXTENT NORTH IT WILL REACH. DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MO/IA BORDER WITH STILL A GOOD ATMOSPHERE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM
LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 3500-3800 METER RANGE. FORWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST PROVIDING SOME TRAINING
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. THE 25.19Z HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THE
HEAVY CONVECTION IN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. OTHER
CONCERN WAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THUS LOW
IMPACT ON ANY ONGOING FLOODING
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A MUCH...MUCH QUIETER 7 DAYS AHEAD IN THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP ON HIGH PRESSURE COMING ONSHORE NEAR
THE OREGON COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING THROUGH
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING INTO 12Z AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLIPPING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES IN IA. WITH YESTERDAY/S BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
NORTHERN MO...A LOT OF THE MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY/S SYSTEM STILL
AROUND. MODELS FOCUSING IN ON PWATS BTX 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH
IS AROUND +1 TO +2 STD DEV. GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT AS MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONV PRESENT TO INCREASE LIFT. 0-6KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7 G/KG
WHICH IS DECENT ENOUGH. OVERALL SOUNDING PROFILE MUCH LESS SATURATED
THAN MOST OF THIS WEEK...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE THE MOST
EFFICIENT IN RAIN PRODUCTION.
FRI AFTERNOON TEMPS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C IN OUR EAST AND 14C IN
OUR WEST...ABOUT -1 TO -2 STD DEV. THURSDAY/S 850 MB TEMPS WERE
AROUND 14C NE TO 17C SW. AM EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO BREAK
THROUGH...BUT NOT A LOT...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
FRI AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...0-6KM MUCAPE VALUES BTX 700
AND 1000 J/KG WHICH WHICH IS MINIMAL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
30KTS...ALSO MINIMAL. LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 1000M. OVERALL SOUNDING
PROFILE SUGGESTS ANYTHING THAT FORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED. THUS
OVERALL...AM EXPECTING NIL SVR/TOR THREAT FRI PM AND THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHORT LIVED NON-SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY IN OUR NW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
PROPAGATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NW MINNESOTA INTO SE
MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO THIS AND PUSHING
THROUGH IA DURING THE DAYTIME. THE 12Z GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT PLACES THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR CWA BY 12-15Z SUN.
HAVE MAINLY DISREGARDED THE GFS AND WENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF OTHER
MODELS. PWATS JUMP FROM AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND 0-6KM MUCAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 400 TO 600 J/KG. POSITION OF FRONT DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING IMPORTANT FOR SVR POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW...ALL SIGNS
POINT TO THIS BOUNDARY BEING WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
FOR MONDAY AND THE REST OF THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...PERSISTENCE
BECOMES A GOOD FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL KEEP THE DMX CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEMING INTO THE NEXT
THU/FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME. A HUGE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE RIDGE WILL
STAY TO OUR WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE
AROUND 15C TO OUR EAST AND 18C TO THE WEST. MODELS HINTING AT
THERMAL RIDGE CRASHING DOWN INTO IA SOMETIME LATER IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO POP CHANCES TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH INTO IA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING LOWERING CIGS TO OCNL MVFR IN PRECIP. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SOMETHING...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE BEST LOCATIONS
TO SEE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KOTM. A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS MO/KS AND INTO NE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
NORTH AFFECTING FAR SRN IA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THIS AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
AFT 18Z THOUGH SOME SPOTTY SHRA MAY PERSIST. ALL LOCATIONS WILL CLR
AFT 21Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND STORMS THURSDAY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DID UPDATE GRIDS AND GRIDS SENT TO NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH THE T/TD GRIDS AND TO REMOVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT BUT THE SITUATION SEEMS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF
A HYDRO ISSUE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS UPSTREAM.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST OF THEM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...AND THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST HAS ALREADY SET IN AT JKL DUE TO THE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECT THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SINCE THE CAP IS
NOW BROKEN. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ADJUST T/TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT
THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.
TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP AT LEAST VCTS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. ALSO GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MORE OVERNIGHT MANY SITES WILL ALSO SEE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOWER VIS DURING CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE A LULL AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT UNDER STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1204 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH THE T/TD GRIDS AND TO REMOVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT BUT THE SITUATION SEEMS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF
A HYDRO ISSUE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS UPSTREAM.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST OF THEM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...AND THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST HAS ALREADY SET IN AT JKL DUE TO THE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECT THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SINCE THE CAP IS
NOW BROKEN. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ADJUST T/TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT
THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.
TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE JKL...SJS...AND SME TAF SITES.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT ANTICIPATE CIGS/VIS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH ALTERNATE MIN VIS
POSSIBLE AT THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES AND MVFR VIS AT THE
JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. A LULL IN PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY/DJ
AVIATION...JVM/HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.AVIATION...
FAIR AND VFR WITH SFC WINDS LIGHT S AND CLIMB WINDS SE- SW
10-20KTS...VEERING TO NW FLOW BY 12KFT. THERE MAYBE A SITE OR TWO
WITH DAYBREAK BR. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL HEATING
CONVECTION FOR FRI AFTN. W/ A TWIST AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO
PLAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. SCT/NUMEROUS STORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NOCTURNAL. GUSTY WINDS AND TURBULENCE NEAR
DOWNPOURS/TOWERS WITH BETTER WX BY SUN WITH WEAK FROPA. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING
BUT CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF THIS EVENING
LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO EVENINGS. LATEST HRRR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS ASSESSMENT SO IT SHOULD BE SAFE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. CONCERNING TEMPS...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS N LA WHERE EARLIER
RAINFALL ALREADY HAD 02Z TEMPS NEAR OR AT FCST MIN TEMPS. DID
RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NE TX WHERE THE RAINFALL DID
NOT MAKE IT...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
IN THIS LOCATION. WE ARE LEFT WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION SO BEEFED UP
SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO BUT THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHER DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS CHANGES WERE MOSTLY COSMETIC. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 85 70 89 / 60 60 30 0
MLU 75 86 70 88 / 60 60 30 20
DEQ 70 86 66 87 / 60 30 10 0
TXK 72 86 68 88 / 60 40 10 0
ELD 73 84 68 88 / 60 50 20 0
TYR 75 88 70 89 / 50 50 20 0
GGG 75 86 70 88 / 50 50 20 0
LFK 75 89 71 90 / 40 60 40 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE COMPLETED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE ALTHOUGH
THE THUNDER MENTION WAS REMOVED GIVEN A PROGGED LACK OF INSTABILITY.
PREVIOUS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THIS AND A COUPLED JET WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS
IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BOUNDARY...BUT SO FAR THE RUC AND THE HRRR HAVE HANDLED IT
BEST...SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAIN AND THEN RAMPED UP AS THE
LOW APPROACHES.
OVERNIGHT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...AT LEAST UNTIL DRY AIR WRAPS
INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE OCCLUDING LOW LATER ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED IN WESTERN OHIO. OVERALL SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION AND
DEEPENING IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO. THE MATURING SYSTEM IS THEN PROJECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
TAIL END OF RAIN SHIELD WILL THUS PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THROUGH THE MORNING. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE
WITH WARM FRONT POSITIONING AND PROLONGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. AT MOMENT...AREAS NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...ARE
PROJECTED FOR THE HIGHER TOTALS AROUND...AND IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES. GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE COLLABORATED FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CONTINUED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS AN INTERESTING CONDITIONAL COMPONENT TO THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FORECAST. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND CUTOFF NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY HIGH...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES ESCALATE IN
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR UNDER THE ENCROACHING DRY SLOT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ESCALATE. NO ACTION WAS TAKEN
JUST YET...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
PERIODIC SHOWER POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS AN AMPLIFIED GREAT LAKE-TO-GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS DRASTICALLY INCREASED RIDGING
IN THE WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IS EXCEEDINGLY SUSPECT AT THIS
JUNCTURE...HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROBABLY SEES THE
BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED VCTS AT ZZV WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN CONTAINED TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. MAINLY MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT
AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL APPROACHES AT WHICH POINT MOST SITES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
STARTED AN UPWARD TREND BUT DID NOT GO BACK TO VFR AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE CAN SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN ONTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE AREA SEEMS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 1 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PROBLEM...HOWEVER AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS PINNED DOWN MORE
CLOSELY...AND EXACT BASINS WHICH WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL
ARE DETERMINED...A MORE ADEQUATE DETERMINATION OF THE RISK OF
RIVER FLOODING CAN BE MADE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-
031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
15/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS AND
A COUPLED JET WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
RESOLVE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT SO FAR
THE RUC AND THE HRRR HAVE HANDLED IT BEST...SO LOW CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAIN AND THEN RAMPED UP AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
OVERNIGHT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.75
TO 2.00 INCHES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RAINFALL RATES AT
LEAST UNTIL MORNING BEFORE DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...DO NOT SEE
TEMPERATURES DOING MUCH OVERNIGHT. SO...LOWS WERE KEPT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES...IN THE 60`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN
WESTERN OHIO. CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT
COMBINES WINTERTIME SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH SUMMERTIME MOISTURE.
OVERALL SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION AND DEEPENING WILL SLOW WITH TIME AS
H500 PATTERN CLOSES OFF AND SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
FINALLY PULLING AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TAIL END OF HEAVY RAIN SHIELD WILL PROGRESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS THE LONG-ADVERTISED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPS. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL OF COURSE
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS OCCUR. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WILL SEE THE
HIGHER TOTALS AS DRY SLOT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FULLY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION BEFORE COMMAHEAD PRECIP MOVES IN. THIS IS WHERE THE 2+ INCH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES ARE MOST LIKELY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL STILL REACH THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AT LEAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS. WHILE FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...ENOUGH OF A THREAT REMAINS TO MAINTAIN THE GOING WATCH.
THERE IS AN INTERESTING CONDITIONAL COMPONENT TO THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
DECENT ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD FAVOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN...PROFILES SHOW
IMPRESSIVELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
WITH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR. THE NAM HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE AFTER 21Z. INSTABILITY IS THE
CRITICAL FACTOR. IF THE DRY SLOT DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
GOOD DIABATIC HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD QUITE READILY SUPPORT
STRONG STORMS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEHIND ANY EVENING CONVECTION BUT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AS THE WRAPAROUND
PRECIP ARRIVES IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS WILL BE OF A MORE
SHOWERY AND LIGHTER NATURE...AND SHOULD NOT AGGRAVATE ANY WATER
PROBLEMS THAT MANAGE TO OCCUR. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY PULLING AWAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LONGER DRY BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED ANOTHER SYSTEM ON MONDAY...WITH MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS IN THIS TROFFY
PATTERN. SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
60S AT BEST. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED AT
PIT. CL
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS DRASTICALLY INCREASED RIDGING
IN THE WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IS EXCEEDINGLY SUSPECT AT THIS
JUNCTURE...HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROBABLY SEES THE
BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN CENTRAL
OHIO...DECIDED TO ADD A VCTS MENTION TO ZZV. FURTHER NORTH...WILL
LEAVE TS MENTION OUT AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOWER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET WITH THE
BOUNDARY. MAINLY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE
LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL APPROACHES AT
WHICH POINT MOST SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
AND/OR VISIBILITY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
STARTED AN UPWARD TREND BUT DID NOT GO BACK TO VFR AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE CAN SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN ONTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE AREA SEEMS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 1 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PROBLEM...HOWEVER AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS PINNED DOWN MORE
CLOSELY...AND EXACT BASINS WHICH WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL
ARE DETERMINED...A MORE ADEQUATE DETERMINATION OF THE RISK OF
RIVER FLOODING CAN BE MADE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
907 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LATEST FRONTAL POSITION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA THAT REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE HBG AREA WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH. EXPECT STRATUS TO MIX UPWARD AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTN/EVNG -
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTN TSRA IN THE HBG AREA. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION... THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS TRIGGERING RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTION IS SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH
IS FOCUSED. THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED NATURE OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING AS VIGOROUS AS THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT WITH SHOWERS RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT CONSIDERING ANOMALOUS LEVELS OF WIND FLOW AND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO DUE TO SOMEWHAT TAME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EXPECT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHAT IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR REALLY HAVING ANY RISK OF SHOWERS (AND NOT A
TERRIBLY GREAT RISK AT THAT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE THAT THE TEMPORARILY-STALLED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COAST WILL BEGIN RETURNING WITH FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERTURBED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MY NORTHERN ZONES WILL START
HAVING A RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WHOLE OF OUR REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE
TUESDAY...AND THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW
IMPROVING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY THAT TIME. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND ULTIMATE PREFERRED TRACK OF
SOUTHEAST-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE
CLEARED UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO FOR THIS OUTLOOK TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED. /BB/
LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA
FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN
OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 89 68 90 / 11 8 6 17
MERIDIAN 68 88 63 91 / 19 10 5 11
VICKSBURG 67 89 65 90 / 7 7 6 18
HATTIESBURG 71 89 68 90 / 22 24 13 28
NATCHEZ 70 86 70 89 / 19 18 11 31
GREENVILLE 67 90 66 92 / 3 2 6 12
GREENWOOD 66 88 64 91 / 3 2 3 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Active elements of large MCS over western MO will continue to move
south and southeast early this morning while the stratiform rain
area will continue to move east. RAP and HRRR continue to support
the solution that stratiform rain area with moderate to occasionally
heavy rain will slowly move east across the CWA today. RAP as well
as the GFS/NAM show strong 850-925 moisture convergence moving from
west to east across the area with PWATS near 2 inches. Will
maintain going flash flood watch given these parameters and the
saturated soils. Both the GFS and NAM show low level moisture
convergence shifting southeast of the CWA by 00Z with the upper
trough shifting east of the CWA by 06Z. Think that that the current
end time of the flash flood watch of 00Z still is okay because the
heavy rain should have ended by then. Rain chances overnight should
be just scattered showers over the southeast half of the CWA after
midnight.
Temperatures will be much cooler today behind the front with cloudy
skies, cold air advection, and rain. Highs in most areas will only
be in the 70s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
(Saturday and Sunday)
Dry weather is expect on Saturday as subsidence sets in behind the
exiting trough. Then chances of showers and thunderstorms increases
Sunday and Sunday night as a shortwave trough dives down embedded in
the northwestly flow aloft. MUCAPES will be in the 1500-2000 J/kg
range and deep layer shear will be in the 30-40kt range which may be
sufficient to produce a few isolated severe storms.
(Monday through Thursday)
Amplified upper pattern will dominate next week with shortwave
troughs moving through the area every other day. This will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorm in the forecast during the period
with below normal temperatures.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Main concerns over the next 24 hours will be on chances of rain
and ceiling trends. Actual cold front is still across north-
central Missouri so will have to monitor chances for showers and
possibly a thunderstorm out ahead of this boundary. KUIN most
likely to see rain this afternoon whereas KCOU and metro St. Louis
TAF sites have a lesser chance so included a VCSH group for now.
Thinking ceiling trends will improve a bit through late this
afternoon before coming back down into MVFR...with IFR also
possible...particularly for metro St. Louis terminals. Ceilings
should scatter out by Saturday morning with northerly winds around
10 knots continuing.
Specifics for KSTL:
Main concerns over the next 24 hours will be on chances of rain
and ceiling trends. Actual cold front is still across north-
central Missouri so will have to monitor chances for showers and
possibly a thunderstorm out ahead of this boundary. Have a VCSH
group for late this afternoon/early this evening for nwo but will
continue to have to monitor. Thinking ceiling trends will improve
a bit through late this afternoon before coming back down into
MVFR...with IFR also possible late tonight. Ceilings should scatter out
by Saturday morning with northerly winds around 10 knots
continuing through Saturday afternoon.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
710 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Active elements of large MCS over western MO will continue to move
south and southeast early this morning while the stratiform rain
area will continue to move east. RAP and HRRR continue to support
the solution that stratiform rain area with moderate to occasionally
heavy rain will slowly move east across the CWA today. RAP as well
as the GFS/NAM show strong 850-925 moisture convergence moving from
west to east across the area with PWATS near 2 inches. Will
maintain going flash flood watch given these parameters and the
saturated soils. Both the GFS and NAM show low level moisture
convergence shifting southeast of the CWA by 00Z with the upper
trough shifting east of the CWA by 06Z. Think that that the current
end time of the flash flood watch of 00Z still is okay because the
heavy rain should have ended by then. Rain chances overnight should
be just scattered showers over the southeast half of the CWA after
midnight.
Temperatures will be much cooler today behind the front with cloudy
skies, cold air advection, and rain. Highs in most areas will only
be in the 70s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
(Saturday and Sunday)
Dry weather is expect on Saturday as subsidence sets in behind the
exiting trough. Then chances of showers and thunderstorms increases
Sunday and Sunday night as a shortwave trough dives down embedded in
the northwestly flow aloft. MUCAPES will be in the 1500-2000 J/kg
range and deep layer shear will be in the 30-40kt range which may be
sufficient to produce a few isolated severe storms.
(Monday through Thursday)
Amplified upper pattern will dominate next week with shortwave
troughs moving through the area every other day. This will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorm in the forecast during the period
with below normal temperatures.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue moving east
across the area today. Have seen visibility drop as low as 3/4SM
in the heaviest thunderstorms, but surprisingly the vast majority
of the area remains VFR. Think some lower ceilings across northern
Missouri will gradually work their way southeast across central
and eastern Missouri into Illinois later this morning...though I
am not certain this will occur. If the ceilings don`t move
southeast..my TAFs are too pessimistic. Rain should slowly come to
an end from northwest to southeast...with perhaps some showers
lingering over parts of eastern Missouri and west
central/southwest Illinois into the evening. Ceiling forecast is
low confidence into the evening, but it looks like there is a
decent chance much of the area will stay MVFR and possibly drop to
IFR range tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Heaviest thunderstorms should clear Lambert in the next hour or
so. Until then...there`s a decent threat for heavy rain dropping
visibility to 1-2 miles. Am unsure how long the lighter rain will
last...but it looks like it should stick around until early
afternoon at least. However, if there`s no redevelopment behind
the clearing line currently moving through central Missouri, my
TAF is too pessimistic. Do not have a great deal of confidence in
the ceiling forecast either. Guidance suggests that the lower
ceilings over northern Missouri will drop down into the STL area
later this morning/this afternoon. However, guidance hasn`t been
doing a stellar job, and it looks like the lower ceilings are
having some trouble making southward progress. Again, my TAF may
be too pessimistic if those ceilings don`t start coming south over
the next 2-3 hours.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-
Warren MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
326 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Active elements of large MCS over western MO will continue to move
south and southeast early this morning while the stratiform rain
area will continue to move east. RAP and HRRR continue to support
the solution that stratiform rain area with moderate to occasionally
heavy rain will slowly move east across the CWA today. RAP as well
as the GFS/NAM show strong 850-925 moisture convergence moving from
west to east across the area with PWATS near 2 inches. Will
maintain going flash flood watch given these parameters and the
saturated soils. Both the GFS and NAM show low level moisture
convergence shifting southeast of the CWA by 00Z with the upper
trough shifting east of the CWA by 06Z. Think that that the current
end time of the flash flood watch of 00Z still is okay because the
heavy rain should have ended by then. Rain chances overnight should
be just scattered showers over the southeast half of the CWA after
midnight.
Temperatures will be much cooler today behind the front with cloudy
skies, cold air advection, and rain. Highs in most areas will only
be in the 70s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
(Saturday and Sunday)
Dry weather is expect on Saturday as subsidence sets in behind the
exiting trough. Then chances of showers and thunderstorms increases
Sunday and Sunday night as a shortwave trough dives down embedded in
the northwestly flow aloft. MUCAPES will be in the 1500-2000 J/kg
range and deep layer shear will be in the 30-40kt range which may be
sufficient to produce a few isolated severe storms.
(Monday through Thursday)
Amplified upper pattern will dominate next week with shortwave
troughs moving through the area every other day. This will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorm in the forecast during the period
with below normal temperatures.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Complex of showers and thunderstorms will affect the metro TAF
sites over the next few hours with heavy rain accompanied by IFR
visbilities possible along with gusty northwest winds. KUIN is
likely to stay just north of most activity while KCOU will also
likely have a period of storms this evening. Still anticipating
some break late this evening/early overnight period before an
organized bout of showers/storms associated with an MCS moves
roughly along I-70. MVFR ceilings and even visibilities are likely
behind this system into Friday afternoon along with a wind shift
to the northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Complex of showers and thunderstorms will affect the metro TAF
sites over the next few hours with heavy rain accompanied by IFR
visbilities possible along with gusty northwest winds. Still
anticipating some break late this evening/early overnight period
before an organized bout of showers/storms associated with an MCS
moves roughly along I-70 and affect KSTL Friday morning. Lingering
showers with embedded thunder likely into early Friday afternoon.
MVFR ceilings and even visibilities are also likely behind this
system into Friday afternoon along with a wind shift to the
northwest.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-
Warren MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EVEN THOUGH HRRR MODEL GENERALLY HAD TOO MUCH PCPN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS...THAT MODEL ALONG WITH SOME OTHERS GENERATE ISOLD
TO SCT PCPN ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
BUT NO OTHER SGFNT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 7 PM. OTHERWISE...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CLIPPER COMING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS COULD CLIP A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN IOWA AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS WAVE WILL
SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH THE THE AREA SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE NEXT CLIPPER COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES IN
FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE AREA COULD
STILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON FRIDAY FOR
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY SHOULD BE DRY. THE NEXT
WAVE COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SOUTH OF I80. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z OR SO WITH JUST SOME SCT
MID CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 06Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON COVERAGE SO HAVE MENTION OF
VCSH JUST AT KOFK AND KOMA. ANY CEILINGS WOULD LIKELY BE ABOVE
4000 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT GUSTY SUNDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
NO SIGNIF CHANGES...BUT DID ADJUST TEMPS TO SLOW THE FCST RISE
OVER S-CNTRL NEB WHERE CLOUDS WERE LIMITING HEATING. THE BAND OF
SHWRS DROPPING S HAS DISSIPATED. DID ADD SOME 20% POPS TO THE FCST
FOR ISOLATED SHWRS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING 4PM- 7PM.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE NO
CAP WHILE THE GFS MIXES DEEPER AND HAS A CAP. THE SOURCE REGION IS
FROM SD AND THE 12Z ABR SOUNDING DOES INDICATE INSTABILITY AND NO
CAP EVEN WITH MIXING OUT THE DWPT IN THE SFC LAYER.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM...BUT BELIEVE ONE OR TWO
SHWRS COULD POP-UP. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE.
OVERALL...EXPECT A NICE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU AND
STRATOCU.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ONLY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN
STORE.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRANSITION FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES...FELT SAFE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE
VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
LOOKING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WELL AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NV/UT/AZ BORDER AREA IS RESULTING IN RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO WRN
CANADA...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER THE MIDWEST REGION. THE RESULT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHARP
N/NWRLY FLOW...AND AT THIS TIME NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WHILE NO DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONE PASSING
SOUTH THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...BUT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THAT...MAINLY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SIMILAR TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...NOT LOOKING AT A
NOTABLE DROP IN TEMPS...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...WHICH
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ESP OUR NC KS COUNTIES THAT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF
A SLOW DOWN FROM MODELS AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND. FORECAST STILL CALLING FOR
DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 90S ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NC KS.
AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING...OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS
EXPECTED LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...REMAINING WELL
AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE
SHOWN BY MODELS TO BE WORKING INTO THE PAC NW REGION MONDAY
MORNING...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE A TOUCH AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCED FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST COME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THESE WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE MORE NWRLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STILL IN PLACE TO BE WORKED
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SCT 2000-2500 FT STRATOCU LIFTING TO
AROUND 5K FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF SHWR PRIMARILY
AFTER 20Z. N WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL G17-18 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: BECOMING VFR SKC BY 02Z. LGT AND VRBL OR CALM WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z. LIGHT
NW WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
THEN A GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS NOTED ON EVENING
UPPER AIR CHARTS AND SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
COULD BE IDENTIFIED WITHIN THE FLOW...AND RECENT RAP HEIGHT
FORECASTS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED ONE WAVE WAS
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM...AND ANOTHER WAS
APPROACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH WAVES WERE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WERE
IN NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WICHITA.
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOUTHERN STORMS MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN THERE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MANY SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS BUBBLE UP WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SO WILL PLAY THE HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN BROADBRUSH SMALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR SOUTHWEST
IOWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE PUSHES FARTHER AWAY
AND WE LOSE AFTERNOON HEATING.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A TENDENCY TOWARD NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO
MINNESOTA THEN EVENTUALLY IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE AND SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
REALIZED JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE. ON SUNDAY...AXIS OF BEST LIFT
NEAR SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STILL LIE WELL TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER AS COLD
FRONT SWINGS SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE NICE WARMING ON SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PROMOTE
DECENT MIXING. HIGHS THEN SHOULD EASILY REACH THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
GENERAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ONLY A LITTLE DURING THE
WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING BROAD
TROUGH BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT FROM NEARLY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDING OVER
WESTERN RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS...BRINGING OFF AND ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR REGION. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR IN DROPPING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME...THOUGH
STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS MOISTURE RETURN AFTER SUNDAY
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SHOULD SEE MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
IN SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM
OR TWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 60S AND 80S FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE STILL REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AT 08Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIL TO THE WEST ACROSS
NCTRL NEBR BUT HAVE SHOWN RECENT TRENDS OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND MO. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...MT
AND WYOMING SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN WRN
NEBR RANGE FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
TODAY...THE H5 UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AT 12Z
TO BE LOCATED IN WRN IA. UPSTREAM...THERE WILL BE CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY TODAY. WHILE THIS WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF FA AS INDICATED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS...LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER. A CROSS
SECTION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVBL
EXCEPT THAT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. CURRENT FCST IS DRY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT BAND
OF SHOWERS EAST-WEST ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY TO HOLT COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY
12Z. THERE IS HOWEVER INCREASING COVERAGE OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS INCLUDING THEDFORD ATTM. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS
AREA IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERING NCTRL NEBR. ANY STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AFTER 15Z WITH SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM 77 TO 81 DEGREES. WINDS STEADY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY ACROSS THE CONUS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS.
TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NWRLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE
DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER THE RIDGE
RIDING SHORT WAVES/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MORE SUMMER LIKE/ WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE. THUS STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST GFS HAS GONE
DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE AREA. ONE
AGREEMENT IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
LOW CIGS FROM MORNING STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR BRADY ON THE PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM AND
LEWELLEN ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT ROSCOE
IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8.9 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE IS CURRENTLY
NEAR 12.35 FEET AND WILL ALSO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST
EVENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR ANY RISES...ONLY A
SLIGHTLY LESS FALL IN STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. RIVER LEVELS ALONG
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE ELEVATED
NEAR ACTION STAGE AT LISCO WHILE REMAINING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AT LEWELLEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
NO SIGNIF UPDATES CHANGES...BUT DID ADJUST TEMPS TO SLOW THE FCST
RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB WHERE CLOUDS WERE LIMITING HEATING. THE
BAND OF SHWRS DROPPING S HAS DISSIPATED. DID ADD SOME 20% POPS TO
THE FCST FOR ISOLATED SHWRS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING
4PM- 7PM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE NO CAP WHILE THE GFS MIXES DEEPER AND HAS A CAP. THE
SOURCE REGION IS FROM SD AND THE 12Z ABR SOUNDING DOES INDICATE
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP EVEN WITH MIXING OUT THE DWPT IN THE SFC
LAYER.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM...BUT BELIEVE ONE OR TWO
SHWRS COULD POP-UP. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE.
OVERALL...EXPECT A NICE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU AND
STRATOCU.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ONLY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN
STORE.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRANSITION FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES...FELT SAFE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE
VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
LOOKING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WELL AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NV/UT/AZ BORDER AREA IS RESULTING IN RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO WRN
CANADA...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER THE MIDWEST REGION. THE RESULT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHARP
N/NWRLY FLOW...AND AT THIS TIME NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WHILE NO DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONE PASSING
SOUTH THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...BUT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THAT...MAINLY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SIMILAR TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...NOT LOOKING AT A
NOTABLE DROP IN TEMPS...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...WHICH
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ESP OUR NC KS COUNTIES THAT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF
A SLOW DOWN FROM MODELS AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND. FORECAST STILL CALLING FOR
DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 90S ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NC KS.
AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING...OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS
EXPECTED LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...REMAINING WELL
AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE
SHOWN BY MODELS TO BE WORKING INTO THE PAC NW REGION MONDAY
MORNING...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE A TOUCH AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCED FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST COME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THESE WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE MORE NWRLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STILL IN PLACE TO BE WORKED
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
WHILE A VCSH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
707 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AT 08Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIL TO THE WEST ACROSS
NCTRL NEBR BUT HAVE SHOWN RECENT TRENDS OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND MO. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...MT
AND WYOMING SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN WRN
NEBR RANGE FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
TODAY...THE H5 UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AT 12Z
TO BE LOCATED IN WRN IA. UPSTREAM...THERE WILL BE CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY TODAY. WHILE THIS WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF FA AS INDICATED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS...LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER. A CROSS
SECTION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVBL
EXCEPT THAT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. CURRENT FCST IS DRY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT BAND
OF SHOWERS EAST-WEST ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY TO HOLT COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY
12Z. THERE IS HOWEVER INCREASING COVERAGE OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS INCLUDING THEDFORD ATTM. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS
AREA IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERING NCTRL NEBR. ANY STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AFTER 15Z WITH SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM 77 TO 81 DEGREES. WINDS STEADY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY ACROSS THE CONUS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS.
TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NWRLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE
DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER THE RIDGE
RIDING SHORT WAVES/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MORE SUMMER LIKE/ WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE. THUS STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST GFS HAS GONE
DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE AREA. ONE
AGREEMENT IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SOME LIFR CEILINGS EXIST ACROSS WRN NEBR...MAINLY NEAR THE KLBF
TERMINAL. RECENT LIFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF KVTN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. AT KLBF...DURATION OF LIFR CEILINGS ARE
PROBLEMATIC. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AT TIF HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND
THE AREA SURROUNDING KLBF CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST AT 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR BRADY ON THE PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM AND
LEWELLEN ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT ROSCOE
IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8.9 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE IS CURRENTLY
NEAR 12.35 FEET AND WILL ALSO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST
EVENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR ANY RISES...ONLY A
SLIGHTLY LESS FALL IN STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. RIVER LEVELS ALONG
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE ELEVATED
NEAR ACTION STAGE AT LISCO WHILE REMAINING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AT LEWELLEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
THEN A GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS NOTED ON EVENING
UPPER AIR CHARTS AND SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
COULD BE IDENTIFIED WITHIN THE FLOW...AND RECENT RAP HEIGHT
FORECASTS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED ONE WAVE WAS
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM...AND ANOTHER WAS
APPROACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH WAVES WERE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WERE
IN NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WICHITA.
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOUTHERN STORMS MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN THERE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MANY SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS BUBBLE UP WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SO WILL PLAY THE HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN BROADBRUSH SMALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR SOUTHWEST
IOWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE PUSHES FARTHER AWAY
AND WE LOSE AFTERNOON HEATING.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A TENDENCY TOWARD NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO
MINNESOTA THEN EVENTUALLY IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE AND SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
REALIZED JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE. ON SUNDAY...AXIS OF BEST LIFT
NEAR SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STILL LIE WELL TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER AS COLD
FRONT SWINGS SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE NICE WARMING ON SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PROMOTE
DECENT MIXING. HIGHS THEN SHOULD EASILY REACH THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
GENERAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ONLY A LITTLE DURING THE
WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING BROAD
TROUGH BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT FROM NEARLY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDING OVER
WESTERN RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS...BRINGING OFF AND ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR REGION. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR IN DROPPING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME...THOUGH
STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS MOISTURE RETURN AFTER SUNDAY
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SHOULD SEE MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
IN SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM
OR TWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 60S AND 80S FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING KOFK THIS MORNING AND MAY AFFECT KOMA/KLNK
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF TAFS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AT 08Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIL TO THE WEST ACROSS
NCTRL NEBR BUT HAVE SHOWN RECENT TRENDS OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND MO. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...MT
AND WYOMING SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN WRN
NEBR RANGE FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
TODAY...THE H5 UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AT 12Z
TO BE LOCATED IN WRN IA. UPSTREAM...THERE WILL BE CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY TODAY. WHILE THIS WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF FA AS INDICATED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS...LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER. A CROSS
SECTION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVBL
EXCEPT THAT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. CURRENT FCST IS DRY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT BAND
OF SHOWERS EAST-WEST ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY TO HOLT COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY
12Z. THERE IS HOWEVER INCREASING COVERAGE OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS INCLUDING THEDFORD ATTM. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS
AREA IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERING NCTRL NEBR. ANY STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AFTER 15Z WITH SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM 77 TO 81 DEGREES. WINDS STEADY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY ACROSS THE CONUS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS.
TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NWRLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE
DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER THE RIDGE
RIDING SHORT WAVES/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MORE SUMMER LIKE/ WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE. THUS STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST GFS HAS GONE
DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE AREA. ONE
AGREEMENT IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THE REST OF
TONIGHT. IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTH OF A BBW-TIF-MHN
LINE...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH. AFTER THE
STORMS PASS...LOWER CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AS STRATUS FORMS IN THE
MOIST STABLE AIR LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS. THOUGH THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WOULD FORM...THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS CEILINGS WILL BE 1000-2000 FEET. THE
NORTHERN STATIONS...NAMELY VTN...ANW AND ONL...HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF HAVING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET THAN ARE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST STATIONS...NAMELY BBW...LBF...OGA AND IML.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR BRADY ON THE PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM AND
LEWELLEN ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT ROSCOE
IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8.9 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE IS CURRENTLY
NEAR 12.35 FEET AND WILL ALSO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST
EVENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR ANY RISES...ONLY A
SLIGHTLY LESS FALL IN STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. RIVER LEVELS ALONG
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE ELEVATED
NEAR ACTION STAGE AT LISCO WHILE REMAINING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AT LEWELLEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
THEN A GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS NOTED ON EVENING
UPPER AIR CHARTS AND SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
COULD BE IDENTIFIED WITHIN THE FLOW...AND RECENT RAP HEIGHT
FORECASTS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED ONE WAVE WAS
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM...AND ANOTHER WAS
APPROACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH WAVES WERE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WERE
IN NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WICHITA.
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOUTHERN STORMS MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN THERE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MANY SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING HELPS BUBBLE UP WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SO WILL PLAY THE HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN BROADBRUSH SMALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR SOUTHWEST
IOWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE PUSHES FARTHER AWAY
AND WE LOSE AFTERNOON HEATING.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A TENDENCY TOWARD NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO
MINNESOTA THEN EVENTUALLY IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE AND SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
REALIZED JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE. ON SUNDAY...AXIS OF BEST LIFT
NEAR SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STILL LIE WELL TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER AS COLD
FRONT SWINGS SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE NICE WARMING ON SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PROMOTE
DECENT MIXING. HIGHS THEN SHOULD EASILY REACH THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
GENERAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CHANGES ONLY A LITTLE DURING THE
WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING BROAD
TROUGH BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT FROM NEARLY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDING OVER
WESTERN RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS...BRINGING OFF AND ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR REGION. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR IN DROPPING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME...THOUGH
STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS MOISTURE RETURN AFTER SUNDAY
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SHOULD SEE MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
IN SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM
OR TWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 60S AND 80S FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY HAVE VFR CIGS WITH
SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND ADD IF NEEDED FOR THE
THUNDER THREAT. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BY
MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
149 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE BATTLE BORN STATE RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THE HEAT WAVE TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 595 500MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER WITH AN WEAK 500MB LOW WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS SETUP IS DRAWING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA AND CREATING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXIST.
NAM12...RAP...AND HRRR MODELED RADAR OUTPUT AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT...BUT ALSO POINT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES INCREASED THE PAST 24HRS...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE DRY;
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE IS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS
SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD THE RIDGE FURTHER OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW...PUSHING 500MB HEIGHTS TO 598DM. ONCE AGAIN PW HANGS
AROUND .5 TO .6 AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...SO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MTNS TOPS. RIDGE AXIS ORIENTATION BECOMES MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AND
SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTS NORTH TO OREGON...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BE
PULLED INTO THE AREA... AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME TRANSITIONING TO WET OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ARE POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE...PUSHING 1 INCH IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. AS FOR
THE HEAT ADV...IT STILL LOOKS VALID; THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND CENTERED WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MODELS INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
PATTERN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPERATURES ALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTH THROUGH THE LKN CWFA. 100
DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...FAVORING WESTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE ECCENTRIC NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC RIDGE...INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE MAY BE
INTERMITTENT WITH A PULSE ATTRIBUTE DUE TO THE OSCILLATIONS OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALL
ACROSS THE LKN CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: LIGHTNING SENSOR AT KWMC HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY TURNED OFF TO
ELIMINATE FALSE REPORTS OF VCTS. REPAIRS WILL EFFECTED WHEN
POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MAINLY HOT AND DRY...HAINES OF 6 IMMINENT. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECTING A MAJOR HEAT WAVE. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH A TRANSITION
TO ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. ANY
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRACTIC AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.
&&
$$
85/92/92
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
230 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BATTLE BORN STATE
RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THE HEAT WAVE TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOTS OF RIDGING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...MEANWHILE THE HRRR AND GFS ARE DRY AS A
BONE...WITH THE RMOP IN UBER CONFIDENT TERRITORY. THE MEAN MAX
TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT ON JUNE 26TH IS 85F...AND IS 87F FOR
WINNEMUCCA... WENT FOR A HIGH OF 99F AND 101F RESPECTIVELY. FOR
JUNE 27TH THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR THE ELKO AIRPORT IS 85F...AND IS
88F FOR WINNEMUCCA... WENT FOR A HIGH OF 101F AND 104F
RESPECTIVELY. ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE ASOS TO SEE IF THE RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GET SHATTERED.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HUGE RIDGE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAKES IT LOOK LIKE THE DOGS DAYS WHEN IT`S BARELY
THE END OF SPRING. HIGH TEMPS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS OR NEAR THEM FOR
EVERYWHERE. SOME PLACES WILL CERTAINLY SET DAILY RECORD HIGHS...SOME
JUNE RECORDS. HOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DRY
ENOUGH THAT INITIALLY CB BASES WILL BE ABOVE 12000 FEET...SOME CLOSE
TO 18000 FEET...FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. LATER A LOW FORMS
OFFSHORE...FUNNELING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN...BUT IT`S
PATHETIC IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND...ALTHOUGH POPS RISE A FEW
POINTS...QPF IS STILL BASEMENT BARGAIN. TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM THE MODELS START TO QUARREL OVER HEIGHTS AND ORIENTATION...SO
NO TWEAKS THEN...JUST STATUS QUO. BB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS FOR THE
ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. ISOLATED DRY THUNDER POSSIBLE AT KTPH AND KELY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: LIGHTNING SENSOR AT KWMC HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY TURNED OFF TO
ELIMINATE FALSE REPORTS OF VCTS. REPAIRS WILL EFFECTED WHEN
POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY...HAINES OF 6 IMMINENT. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECTING A MAJOR HEAT WAVE. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/98/98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THANKS TO THE BACK DOOR FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE FROM TODAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY...BUT
WILL RAMP BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NUDGED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
MORNING...AND HAS BEEN STUCK THERE SINCE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT
MAY BE A FEW HOURS YET UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT SHOULD OCCUR BY 02-03Z.
WHEN THAT DOES OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO THE FRONTS EARLY ARRIVAL...IT HAS TAKEN A BIT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SINCE AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES HAVE NOT
YET REACHED THERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTH OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HRRR SHOWS STORMS
FURTHER EAST...BUT THE NAM MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS
AND STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THEM SLOWLY SOUTH...IF NOT SW. MOISTURE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON SATURDAY...AND FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. GIVEN HOW WARM IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
PENDING HOW MODELS TREND TONIGHT...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
THE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS PWATS RAISE TO ABOUT 1 INCH OR BETTER ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RELIEF STILL LOOKS TO COME ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR ROUNDS THE
UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOME. COULD SEE A FEW MORE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS THOUGH
VS MAINLY RAIN.
MODELS NOW SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT/WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...
RATHER THAN THURSDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEDNESDAY BEING A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAT THOUGHT YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO IN NW
FLOW. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES. STAY
TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW MOVING INCREASING FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE THE LEAST ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN
STORM ACTIVITY AND UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH MOISTURE LATER NEXT WEEK.
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS BECAUSE OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH/WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE
CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TIMING FOR THE GAP
WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR...INCREASING FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TONIGHT...THEN EXPANDING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY SATURDAY INCREASING WET THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHERLY FOR THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY TUESDAY....STORMS WILL DOWNTREND A BIT BECAUSE OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS DRIER TREND WILL NOT
ELIMINATE STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY THURSDAY
DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
32
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. INITIALLY
IMPACTING THE MOUNTAINS BUT EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF AND IMPACTS
LOWLAND SITES. TS COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER TODAY AND THE STORMS
HAVE MORE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
TOP OBSCD WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER MOST OF
THE MTN RANGES. MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BUT
USING VCSH/VCTS FOR MOST OF THEM UNTIL THE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
MORE ROBUST. LVS/TCC ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVIER
RAIN. GUSTY EAST WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND IMPACT ABQ LATER
TODAY. SUSPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 KT BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THIS EAST WIND IS
PRETTY TRICKY. AWW WIND SPEEDS DUE TO GUSTY EAST WIND POSSIBLE.
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING IMPACTS TO LVS BUT THE SIGNAL ISNT AS GOOD
RIGHT NOW IN THE MODELS SO WILL HOLD OFF THERE.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 63 95 63 94 / 5 20 30 10
DULCE........................... 51 87 49 86 / 30 40 50 30
CUBA............................ 53 82 53 83 / 40 60 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 55 91 55 90 / 10 30 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 55 87 53 85 / 40 60 60 70
GRANTS.......................... 57 87 54 87 / 30 50 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 59 88 56 84 / 40 70 60 60
GLENWOOD........................ 56 90 57 87 / 40 60 60 60
CHAMA........................... 48 81 48 82 / 40 60 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 82 59 84 / 50 70 60 60
PECOS........................... 56 79 55 81 / 70 60 90 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 74 50 76 / 60 60 60 60
RED RIVER....................... 46 67 46 69 / 70 70 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 71 43 71 / 80 70 60 70
TAOS............................ 51 80 50 82 / 40 50 50 60
MORA............................ 52 74 51 78 / 80 80 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 58 87 56 89 / 30 40 50 40
SANTA FE........................ 61 80 59 83 / 50 70 70 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 85 58 87 / 50 40 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 88 63 87 / 60 50 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 90 67 90 / 40 30 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 92 64 91 / 40 30 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 91 65 90 / 40 30 60 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 92 63 91 / 30 20 60 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 91 64 91 / 40 30 60 50
SOCORRO......................... 66 93 64 91 / 30 20 50 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 84 58 84 / 70 50 80 60
TIJERAS......................... 60 86 59 86 / 60 50 80 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 85 53 85 / 70 50 80 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 80 56 82 / 80 60 90 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 58 82 / 60 50 70 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 86 61 85 / 50 40 60 30
RUIDOSO......................... 56 78 56 79 / 70 60 60 50
CAPULIN......................... 56 79 56 81 / 60 40 30 30
RATON........................... 54 81 54 84 / 70 40 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 81 55 85 / 70 50 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 78 53 81 / 80 60 70 40
CLAYTON......................... 60 83 61 90 / 30 30 20 20
ROY............................. 58 79 58 84 / 70 40 40 30
CONCHAS......................... 64 86 64 92 / 70 30 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 86 62 90 / 80 30 60 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 88 65 93 / 50 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 63 83 63 88 / 50 20 40 20
PORTALES........................ 65 85 64 89 / 50 20 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 85 64 89 / 70 20 60 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 90 66 93 / 60 20 50 20
PICACHO......................... 61 83 60 86 / 70 40 50 20
ELK............................. 59 76 58 79 / 60 50 50 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-523-526-528-529-532-533-537>539.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEAR KCVS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 07Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY BUT
STORMS WILL BE MARKEDLY STRONGER DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO ERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
CENTRAL NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5KT. STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS LIKELY AT
KABQ BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS AT KSAF.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AS LARGE
SCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT KEEPS STORMS GOING.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...317 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...PERHAPS RESULTING IN AN EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY
THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES. A DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT AND
MOISTURE SURGE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE STORMS
TOWARD THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST
ENOUGH...AND HAVE BEEN PULSEY ENOUGH...TO NOT CAUSE TOO MANY WATER
ISSUES.
HI-RES MODELS SHOWING STORMS FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR THE E
NM/E CO BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. APPEARS THAT
STORMS MAY GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED INTO A CLUSTER...FORMING A COLD
POOL...WITH STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRACES THE
STORMS. HRRR KEEPS STORMS TOGETHER AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSWELL...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP FALLING APART SHORT OF THERE.
NONETHELESS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE SMALL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOSING INTO NE NM ATTM SHOULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE. DEPENDING ON IF STORMS FIRE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANDIAS...AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...COULD SEE A PRETTY
STRONG...BUT SHORT-LIVED...EAST WIND INTO THE RGV.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THOUGH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW...A BACK DOOR
FRONT...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY AIDED... WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT...AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
DAY AFTER THE FRONT NUDGES UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IGNITING
STORMS...AND THOSE STORMS SHOULD TRAVEL S OR SE-WARD OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY-MID AFTN...SPILLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM AS WELL...PERHAPS WITH BETTER COVERAGE THAN TODAY. EAST
CANYON WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE PRETTY STRONG.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PWATS LIKELY ABOVE 1 INCH AREAWIDE/...
NORTH TO SOUTH STEERING FLOW...AND LOW LEVEL S TO SELY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE PERIOD MIGHT BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT.
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN
IS A CERTAINTY. THIS SPELLS A RECIPE FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE MORE OF THE SAME...THOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ALSO NOSE INTO
NE NM AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... DRIER AIR LOOKS TO CIRCLE AROUND THE
HIGH AND OVER NM. THOUGH THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN TO SEE SOME ACTION.
ACTIVITY RAMPS BACK UP ON THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR
FRONT REPLENISHING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT INDICATIONS
IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THURS...AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT...OR PERHAPS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE ON THE 4TH OF JULY. LOOKS LIKE MOTHER NATURE
WILL PROVIDE HER OWN FIREWORKS AGAIN THIS YEAR.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL BIG CHANGES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS SURGE WILL KICK OFF
A WET PHASE TO THE MONSOON PERIOD.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIT AND MISS STORMS CONTAINING WETTING
RAIN WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BLEED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE
TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SWEEP UNDERNEATH
AND REENERGIZE MOISTURE SUPPLIES WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER. A
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
PUSH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. WETTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT STILL BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND BUT
NOT AS STRONG COMPARED TO A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND COULD
POSSIBLY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH THE MOISTURE LOST EARLIER IN THE WAY AND
INCREASE WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE THE LOWEST DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO
REDUCED MIXING HEIGHTS...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TRANSPORT
WINDS.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE HUMID DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE HAS WANED AND NO LONGER A THREAT. HOWEVER...EYES TURN
TOWARD AN INTENSIFYING BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND AT THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA
AT THE MOMENT. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY AS IT PUSHES EAST AT A GOOD
CLIP. LIKELY WILL SEE BOW TYPE SEGMENTS DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF
THIS LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...POPS HAVE BEEN RE-ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THIS LINE AS
IT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN AS IS
BUT MAY LIKELY NEED READJUSTMENTS LATER AS DOWNDRAFTS FROM THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION LOWERS TEMPS TO NEAR FORECAST MINS DURING THIS
EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TO THIS IMMINENT LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION CROSSING THE FA.
PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS ONGOING AND TRACKING ENE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH REMNANT MCV
CIRCULATIONS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS. THE SEA-BREEZE
INTERACTIONS MAY HELP SPIKE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND A SPIN-UP MESO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES STREWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SUPPORT STRENGTHENS AND THIS REMAINS FAVORED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
MODELS SHOW AS UPPER WINDS PARALLEL THE FRONT...CONVECTION MAY
WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...LOW AND MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT. THUS ANY STORMS THAT ARE
MAINTAINED TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SWIFT FORWARD MOTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARSHORE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET (200MB) INTENSIFIES THE
PUSH FOR THE FRONT BECOMES NON EXISTENT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SIGNAL. WILL WAIT FOR MORE CERTAINTY
BEFORE ADDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT I DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WONDERFUL DAY MONDAY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND MIXING DOWN AT MAX
HEATING. CERTAINLY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERALL I TWEAKED TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY. THE HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS BELOW 90
SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS
WONT BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND
ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION
WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY
FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE
TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING
DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING
WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE
LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A BIT OF A LULL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS WILL GIVE
US BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT HAVE
THAT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THINK WE WILL GET ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...CERTAINLY WEST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLAPPING FOR SW 15-25
KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KT TONIGHT. ANY TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
OBTAIN RADAR UPDATES BEFORE HEADING OUT. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS SEAS 4-7
FEET OVERNIGHT AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE...AND SE OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS
COMPOSED OF SW WAVES 4-5 FEET EVERY 6 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2
FEET IN 8-9 SECONDS INTERVALS. IN AND NEAR TSTMS A HEAVY CHOP
WOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP ON THE WATERS. SW-W WINDS EARLY SUNDAY
EXPECTED 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL NEVER REALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE
WATERS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY ON THE ORDER OF 15-
20 KNOTS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE WINDS BEGIN A LONG DECENT DOWN TO TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JETTING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS
PERSIST. BY MONDAY THE SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS
INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT
BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS
INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3
FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM
THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC/RAN
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
622 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 PM FRI...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
EFFECT EASTERN SECTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES IN FORECAST AREA AND
WATERS.
AS OF 410 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361 IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.
HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MHX
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC
LATER THIS EVENING. 12Z NAM DOES NOT INDICATE THE MCS FEATURE BUT
INDICATES DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMP
ACROSS MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BUT LACK A TRIGGER AND ALSO SUFFER
FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE/SQUALL LINE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE OBX. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER
19-20Z DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE FRONT, SEABREEZE, AND LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TRIED TO BETTER PINPOINT
TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TRENDED POPS A BIT HIGHER
FOR THE HWY 64 AND NORTH AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
RAH CWA SLOWLY PUSHING EAST BUT STRUGGLING TO SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEABREEZE JUST YET. NUCAPS SOUNDINGS MIRROR THE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC NOTED IN THE SPC
MESOANALYSES, WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG. WEAK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, TO 35-45 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN INCREASE WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH TEMPS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TRICKY DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFTING MECHANISMS. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING, THEN LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT AS
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY. A MOIST/MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. A VORTMAX/SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE EASTERN NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES, NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO (GIVEN AN
IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILE). MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90S INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH
TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...WET WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SOME DRIER MORE
COMFORTABLE DAYS. THREAT OF RAIN RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
GULF MOISTURE FEED PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST DURING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LEADING TO
A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S/LOW 70S
FOR LOWS...BEFORE WARMING BACK WELL INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND`S
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AS HEIGHTS LOWER. COUPLED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH SUMMER-TIME HEATING...INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AND DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS COLLOCATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. TIMING
THESE SHOWER/STORMS AND THEIR OVERALL EXTENT IS PROVING DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME. AS OF RIGHT NOW...BKN CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING AROUND
4-5 KFT AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO
BECOME SSW OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NUMEROUS. VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS DOWNSLOPING DRIER AIR MOVES
IN WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF LATE DAY MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 620 PM FRI...MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OREGON INLET WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
2 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF IT. BOUNDARY EXPECT TO DROP A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 10PM WITH
ASSOCIATED STORMS.
PREV DISC...AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD ACT TO DIMINISH
THE SW GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EXPECT THE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE EASTERN NC WATERS. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE, BUILDING SEAS 5-8 FT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30
KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6-9 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH HEDGED
CLOSER TO SWAN/NWPS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS GIVEN ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE IN NEAR SHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GRADIENT
BEHIND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS A COLD FRONT EASES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
BECOME MORE W/NW BY LATE SUNDAY THEN NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT WITH A S/SW
WIND FLOW RESUMING MONDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CGG/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
411 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361 IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.
HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MHX
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC
LATER THIS EVENING. 12Z NAM DOES NOT INDICATE THE MCS FEATURE BUT
INDICATES DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMP
ACROSS MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BUT LACK A TRIGGER AND ALSO SUFFER
FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE/SQUALL LINE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE OBX. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER
19-20Z DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE FRONT, SEABREEZE, AND LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TRIED TO BETTER PINPOINT
TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TRENDED POPS A BIT HIGHER
FOR THE HWY 64 AND NORTH AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
RAH CWA SLOWLY PUSHING EAST BUT STRUGGLING TO SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEABREEZE JUST YET. NUCAPS SOUNDINGS MIRROR THE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC NOTED IN THE SPC
MESOANALYSES, WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG. WEAK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, TO 35-45 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN INCREASE WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH TEMPS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TRICKY DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFTING MECHANISMS. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING, THEN LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT AS
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY. A MOIST/MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. A VORTMAX/SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE EASTERN NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES, NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO (GIVEN AN
IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILE). MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90S INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH
TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...WET WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SOME DRIER MORE
COMFORTABLE DAYS. THREAT OF RAIN RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
GULF MOISTURE FEED PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST DURING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LEADING TO
A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S/LOW 70S
FOR LOWS...BEFORE WARMING BACK WELL INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND`S
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AS HEIGHTS LOWER. COUPLED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH SUMMER-TIME HEATING...INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AND DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS COLLOCATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. TIMING
THESE SHOWER/STORMS AND THEIR OVERALL EXTENT IS PROVING DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME. AS OF RIGHT NOW...BKN CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING AROUND
4-5 KFT AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO
BECOME SSW OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NUMEROUS. VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS DOWNSLOPING DRIER AIR MOVES
IN WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF LATE DAY MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD ACT TO DIMINISH THE SW GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
EASTERN NC WATERS. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE, BUILDING SEAS 5-8 FT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
20-30 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6-9 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM,
THOUGH HEDGED CLOSER TO SWAN/NWPS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS GIVEN
ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE IN NEAR SHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GRADIENT
BEHIND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS A COLD FRONT EASES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
BECOME MORE W/NW BY LATE SUNDAY THEN NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT WITH A S/SW
WIND FLOW RESUMING MONDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
THINGS HAVING A REALLY HARD TIME GETTING GOING THIS AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS WAVE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE VA
BORDER IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALREADY HEAD SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD BY 18Z
WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO HAPPENING AT THIS POINT AND RAP MODEL
VORTICITY NOW SHOWS ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKING AT VARIOUS PARAMETERS ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL THINGS STILL GOING WELL
FOR THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING INCREASING
SHEAR FROM THE NORTH...DECENT INSTABILITY...AND UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE PROBLEM WE MAY HAVE HOWEVER...IS GETTING
THINGS TO LINE UP. WHILE SHEAR IS BEST IN THE NORTH...DCAPE IS BEST
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE THE BEST VORTICITY WOULD BE IN THE
NORTHEAST...THE STRONGEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ANY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT AND A POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY. SURFACE OBS CURRENTLY SHOW 80S IN THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOW 90S ACROSS THE US 64 CORRIDOR BUT MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
HERE ARE THE TAKEAWAYS. FIRST...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL
POSSIBLE AND SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUMULUS FIELD ON
SATELLITE SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE US 64
CORRIDOR. MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE FROM WIND AND POTENTIALLY SOME
HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT AS WELL AS FLOODING IN ANY SLOW MOVING OR
TRAINING CELLS. TIMING WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS COULD BRING A ROUND OF
CONVECTION INTO THE TRIAD AROUND 6Z AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA BY 9Z. AFTER THIS MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
CENTRAL NC IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE
LOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT
HAPPENING...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHAT WILL START AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO CLUSTERS AND
SMALL LINE SEGMENTS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS FORCING FROM
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. BY EVENING...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUPPORTING A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS...SECONDARY THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY LIKELY BUT URBAN AREAS AND PLACES WHERE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WET COULD BECOME SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE CONVECTION STARTING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 18Z...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD
AROUND 00Z ON SUNDAY WITH THE TRIANGLE AFFECTED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 6Z ON SUNDAY. WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTH. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE
TRIAD MOST LIKELY IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWFA SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH LEE SURFACE TROF SETTING UP
THE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BEGIN THE INEVITABLE
CREEP UPWARDS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AFTER MORNING LOWS
FROM 60 TO 65. WARMING CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING.
A SECOND FRONT NUDGES SOUTH AND STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING US WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF CONVECTION...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OTHER THAN COVERAGE
WHICH WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A SHADE WARMER THAN
NORMAL...UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND LEFT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF RECOVERY WILL BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH TO THREATEN
THE TRIAD AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SO HAVE TAKEN THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT KEPT IT IN AT KRDU AND KRWI
AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REALIZE
CONVECTION A BIT LATER. PARAMETERS ARE STILL GOOD FOR SEVERE WX SO
THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT A FIRST WAVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SITES BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION NEAR SUNRISE WILL GIVE WAY
TO MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKING VERY NICE WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SKY COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF 19Z THE FRONT
HAD CROSSED ROLLA...BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
REMAIN ON WESTERN FLANK OF 110KT JET STREAK...IN LESS FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A LITTLE CIN IN PLACE AS
OF 19Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WAS ALSO IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA HOWEVER
WHICH MAY BE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS
HANDLED THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL...ALTHOUGH IT HAS OVERDONE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST HAD CONF CALL WITH SPC AND WILL ISSUE TORNADO
WATCH FOR OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF FOSTER...STUTSMAN...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND LIKELY STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.
IT IS A MINI PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE
WAVES WILL BE KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED
THE PERIOD WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS
NOT REALISTIC.
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONFINED POPS TO THE MORE DENSE CU FIELDS...SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...ALSO WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE AT. OTHERWISE UPDATES WERE
MINOR FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...AS THE 15-17
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST...WHERE CUMULUS FIELDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
GIVEN A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 09-11 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 06 UTC NAM...DECREASED
THE OVERALL MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...CONFINING THE MENTION TO PRIMARILY THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. KBIS WSR-88D SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA...AND THE LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT THEY COULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG WAS LEFT IN PLACE WITH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. DID NOT ADJUST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS STILL SUPPORTED IN THE HRRR
AND 26.06Z NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST THEN PIVOT SOUTHEAST AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA 12Z SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR TODAY(FRIDAY)...A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN WEAK AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW WEST/NMM
WEST/HRRR...PORTRAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
GLOBAL MODELS EXTEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE FAR WEST REMAINING DRY. USED A BLEND OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL SUITE FOR POPS TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL/850MB JET BRIEFLY DEVELOPS FRIDAY
EVENING ADVECTING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...AND SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING
THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
EXITS THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW
THE MODEL BLEND IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR KBIS/KJMS.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
834 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
GIVEN A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 09-11 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 06 UTC NAM...DECREASED
THE OVERALL MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...CONFINING THE MENTION TO PRIMARILY THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. KBIS WSR-88D SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA...AND THE LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT THEY COULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG WAS LEFT IN PLACE WITH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. DID NOT ADJUST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS STILL SUPPORTED IN THE HRRR
AND 26.06Z NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST THEN PIVOT SOUTHEAST AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA 12Z SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR TODAY(FRIDAY)...A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN WEAK AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW WEST/NMM
WEST/HRRR...PORTRAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
GLOBAL MODELS EXTEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE FAR WEST REMAINING DRY. USED A BLEND OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL SUITE FOR POPS TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL/850MB JET BRIEFLY DEVELOPS FRIDAY
EVENING ADVECTING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...AND SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING
THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
EXITS THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW
THE MODEL BLEND IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 829 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
MORNING FOG IS QUICKLY BURNING OFF ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1330 UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR KBIS/KJMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. KBIS WSR-88D SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA...AND THE LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT THEY COULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG WAS LEFT IN PLACE WITH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. DID NOT ADJUST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS STILL SUPPORTED IN THE HRRR
AND 26.06Z NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST THEN PIVOT SOUTHEAST AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA 12Z SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR TODAY(FRIDAY)...A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN WEAK AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW WEST/NMM
WEST/HRRR...PORTRAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
GLOBAL MODELS EXTEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE FAR WEST REMAINING DRY. USED A BLEND OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL SUITE FOR POPS TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL/850MB JET BRIEFLY DEVELOPS FRIDAY
EVENING ADVECTING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...AND SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING
THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
EXITS THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW
THE MODEL BLEND IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HELD ONTO VCTS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
FROM 22Z FRIDAY THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1157 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST AND
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL DIMINISHING. A RENEWED AREA OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER WELLS COUNTY MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS PER LATEST HRRR AS THIS AREA SLIDES SOUTH. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ONLY ADDITION OF
WEATHER TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS PATCHY FOG WEST AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PER HRRR MODEL. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
CLOSING UP ON EACH OTHER. WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT
WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMS AND
NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT FRIDAY.
STATE RADIO TELLS US TRAFFIC WAS MOVING NORMALLY IN THIS AREA AND
THE WATER HAS RECEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING
AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT. DRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOME WERE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 45
MPH. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL EXPECT A WEAKENING OF STORMS...AND FOR THEM
TO DISSIPATE BY 10 PM OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GREATLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN
INCREASED. THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUSTAINED
CONVECTION...BUT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPLEX
TRAIN OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PARADING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
SO...WHILE ANY ONE OF THESE WAVES HAS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO RELEASE
THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION REDUCES THIS EVENING. THIS FORECAST IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 12 UTC HIRES ARW/NMM AND THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR. FINALLY...THE HIRES AND GLOBAL MODEL SUITE IS DRY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE WAVE THAT BRINGS ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY MOVES OUT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ENDING THE STORM CHANCES. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...EVEN MONDAY...WILL BE DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND VERY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...TOUCHING 90 LIKELY ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS...LIGHT FOR
NORTH DAKOTA STANDARDS.
STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MENTIONED VCFG AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A VCTS WAS ADDED TO KMOT/KBIS/KJMS AFTER
22Z FRIDAY THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1147 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR
CLE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ENE.
FLOODING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL CONTINUING IN NWRN
CO`S. HRRR HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO ALLOWING FOR THIS PATCH OF
RAIN TO ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 06Z AS IF SHIFTS EASTWARD. SCT
CONVECTION IN THE EAST STILL CONTINUES BUT CELLS ON THE SMALL SIDE
SO ONLY EXPECT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THERE.
COULD PUSH THE EDGE AND CHOP OUT A FEW CO`S IN NE OH FROM THE FLOOD
WATCH AND GET AWAY WITH IT. HOWEVER...JUST TOO MUCH DYNAMICS PRESENT
TO TAKE THAT CHANCE...BESIDES SOME AREAS STILL HAVE SOME MINOR
FLOODING TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE CREEKS AND RIVERS.
SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES.
THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
DIMINISH AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS UNDER THE CALM WITH THE LOW WILL SEE WINDS COME UP
SOME AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE BASICALLY OVER KCLE AT 00Z WITH WARM SECTOR SHOWERS
IN NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WHILE TO THE WEST MODERATE TO HEAVY WRAP
AROUND RAIN AFFECTING TOLEDO AND ABOUT TO AFFECT FINDLAY. WINDS
ALSO A FACTOR WITH NWRN OHIO SEEING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
KNOTS WHILE TO THE EAST FLOW IS LIGHT AND FRONT THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. EXPECTING THE WRAP AROUND RAIN IN
NWRN OHIO TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS EAST
HALF SHIFTING NORTHWEST. WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z
WEST THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY WHILE THE EAST HALF WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. LAKE LEVELS HAVE RETURNED
TO NEAR NORMAL AND WINDS WERE MORE FROM THE NORTH VS THE NORTHEAST
WHICH ALLOWED LEVELS TO DROP.
OROGONAL...WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN AS GALES PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND
PORTIONS OF LUCAS COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN
THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE
MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER
WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT GOING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>019-
022-023-033-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>145-162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR
CLE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ENE.
FLOODING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL CONTINUING IN NWRN
CO`S. HRRR HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO ALLOWING FOR THIS PATCH OF
RAIN TO ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 06Z AS IF SHIFTS EASTWARD. SCT
CONVECTION IN THE EAST STILL CONTINUES BUT CELLS ON THE SMALL SIDE
SO ONLY EXPECT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THERE.
COULD PUSH THE EDGE AND CHOP OUT A FEW CO`S IN NE OH FROM THE FLOOD
WATCH AND GET AWAY WITH IT. HOWEVER...JUST TOO MUCH DYNAMICS PRESENT
TO TAKE THAT CHANCE...BESIDES SOME AREAS STILL HAVE SOME MINOR
FLOODING TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE CREEKS AND RIVERS.
SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES.
THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
DIMINISH AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS UNDER THE CALM WITH THE LOW WILL SEE WINDS COME UP
SOME AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE BASICALLY OVER KCLE AT 00Z WITH WARM SECTOR SHOWERS
IN NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WHILE TO THE WEST MODERATE TO HEAVY WRAP
AROUND RAIN AFFECTING TOLEDO AND ABOUT TO AFFECT FINDLAY. WINDS
ALSO A FACTOR WITH NWRN OHIO SEEING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
KNOTS WHILE TO THE EAST FLOW IS LIGHT AND FRONT THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. EXPECTING THE WRAP AROUND RAIN IN
NWRN OHIO TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS EAST
HALF SHIFTING NORTHWEST. WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z
WEST THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY WHILE THE EAST HALF WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AS GALES
PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE INDICATE THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND PORTIONS OF LUCAS
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING
FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO
RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL
KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GOING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>019-
022-023-033-089.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-007-009.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>145-162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1038 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. NEXT FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
EVALUATING THE 12Z NAM AS IT COMES IN...AND LOOKS A LITTLE TOO
ACTIVE IN THE NEAR TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY. HAVE WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOWS IN PLACE...AND LIKE THE LOOKS OF THE HRRR RIGHT NOW THAT
HAVE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS.
PREV DISCN...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE E AND DEEPEN...REACHING W CENTRAL OHIO BY DAWN SAT. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DEEPENS AND ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF
DURING THIS TIME.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM / THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BEFORE
BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS KEEP WARM FRONT S OF THE
AREA MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...NOT PUSHING N IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER. THIS BRINGS TO
QUESTION THE NATURE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS LIKELY
TO BE MOST INTENSE ACROSS THE FAR S.
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING N TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SPREAD W
TO E ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND PW VALUES 1.5 TO AT TIMES
CLOSE TO TWO INCHES...FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED FOR 2 PM TODAY THROUGH SAT. NOTWITHSTANDING
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRIME SRN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
MATERIALIZE IF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO BE PERSISTENT
ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE MORE OF A STRAIGHT FLOOD THREAT OR JUST A
PRIMER FOR TONIGHT.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE MODELS APPEAR TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FFA
IS ISSUED AREA WIDE ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE PIECEMEAL
IN NATURE. THE WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT IS MAINLY N OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOST OF
TODAY.
AFTER THE QUICKLY WANING THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS GREATEST IN OUR FAR SRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPREADING NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE THREAT TONIGHT
IS HIGHEST IN THE W EARLY ON...WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT OVERALL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FROM SPC REFLECTS BOTH
OF THESE FACTORS AS IT IS PLACED ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THE BUST POTENTIAL IS THAT A CLOUDY...WETTER DAY WOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT CANT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT OTHER PLACES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AREA WILL BE IN A COOL MOIST PATTERN ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN WV/SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES IN THE NW FLOW.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...FOR
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING/DRYING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS
PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH
AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY
MONDAY.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING
OUT AND DISSIPATING JUST AS QUICKLY. MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER
EXPECTED FROM WHAT IS LEFT.
THE FRONT WILL STAY S OF THE TAF SITES TODAY...SO AFTER A MIDDAY
BREAK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY
EVENTUALLY BRING IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SFC FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE TO LIGHT W ACROSS NRN SITES AND
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TODAY AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT E ELSEWHERE
BECOMING LIGHT E TO SE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. LIGHT W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
VARY.
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...POSSIBLE IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE IS STARTING TO
SHOW SOME CU DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...EASTERN
SIKSYOU...MODOC AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY. THE
SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES INCREASING ALONG THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SIKSYOU COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON.
INTERESTING IS THE CIN VALUES HAVE TRENDED LOWER IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE SOUNDING PUT OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AT 93 DEGREES
AND IT WAS NOT MUCH LONGER AFTER WE REACHED AND EXCEEDED THAT IS
WHEN THE CU HAS STARTED TO POP UP. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY
MODEL PUTS MOST OF THE RETURNS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
A FEW IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION, BUT WITH MORE "QPF" IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. ALSO THE RAP
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WITH CONDITIONS ALREADY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE, COULD SET THE TABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER ALONG THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE FREQUENT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE AN INVERTED "V" PROFILE WHICH MEANS THAT STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, SO WE`LL KEEP DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. OF NOTE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN THE CENTER OF OUR CWA
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. OF BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE FORE WEATHER SECTION.
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE SET. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN EXPECTING VALLEY
HIGHS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF 95 TO 110 DEGREES ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND 92 TO 102 ON THE EAST SIDE. THE
ONLY THING THAT COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...EVEN THEN WE`LL BE HOT, BUT NOT AS HOT
AS TODAY.
PWATS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES. THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THOSE THAT DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST OREGON.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH A PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR NORTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES AND CASCADES ITSELF AND SISKIYOUS. HOWEVER THE RAP SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING, SO THERE COULD
BE A SECONDARY FOCUS IN JOSEPHINE...CURRY...COOS AND PARTS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SATURDAY AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE WE
COULD GET SOME WETTING RAINS FROM THIS, BUT THEY COULD BE FASTER
MOVING. WE EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
OVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS CONCERN FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME 850 LI`S WILL GET
INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY. SO THERE IS CONCERN WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PARTS OF
JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...CURRY...COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY AND CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER, SO
WE THINK STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER 700-500MB WIND
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20-25 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE FASTER
MOVING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY. IT WILL STILL BE TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY, BUT THE
MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHRINK AND BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE
ACTION TUESDAY AS WE GET A MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. I LEFT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRYING AT THE MID LEVELS, SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DON`T GET ANYTHING.
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE BUILDING WESTWARD BEYOND TUESDAY, BUT
THE HIGHEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE POPS AND
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTY. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
HUG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS...AND
OCCASIONAL SCATTERING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH BEND SHOULD BE IN AND
OUT OF THE CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING...AND IN THE AFTERNOON THE
TERMINAL IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOCKED IN...REMAINING THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE OREGON CASCADES...THE UPPER KLAMATH
BASIN...AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AT KLMT
AND KRBG. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED, DRY, AND
THEREFORE COULD CONTAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS. SK/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THERMAL TROUGH WIND PATTERNS...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE TO SHORE THE GALES REACH...WITH THE
FORECAST REFLECTING GALES BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE TODAY. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS AT LEAST
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN BE
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. /FB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE AREAS COVERED BY THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE HAS FINALLY BEEN REACHED WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE CAP OVER THE REGION IS
BEING BROKEN. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY IS OVER THE REGION BUT WITH THE
STRONGEST THETA E CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND UP THE CASCADES AND THEN DOWN THE RIDGES
BETWEEN 624 AND 625 THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE FROM THE SSE AND WILL BE BORDERLINE
STRENGTH TO PUSH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE WEST SIDE OF OREGON. WITH THE DRY LAYER BENEATH
AT LOWER LEVEL THE BASES OF THE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE TEN
THOUSAND FEET WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SEEMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE MOISTURE FLOW
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO A LITTLE OVER 1.2 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLEARING AFTER THE SHORT WAVE BRINGS CONVECTION THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND 6-9Z TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TO REACH THE
LEVEL OF INSTABILITY INDICATED AND MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
COASTAL RANGES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE SHOULD BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO SOME
CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL ALSO SEE THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY...BUT A DRY MID LAYER
MOVES INTO THE WEST SIDE WITH 700-500 RH IN THE 20S INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE MAIN ADJUSTER TO CONFIDENCE. -SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1027 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
LIGHT HAZE FROM THE FIRES IN CALIFORNIA MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW HAS NOT BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. MARINE
STRATUS REMAIN NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY,
BUT THAT WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND WE`LL START
TO SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL
AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER DRY
AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, THUS HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL A CONCERN STARTING
MID AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
MAY END UP OVER THE CASCADES AND EASTSIDE, BUT FIND THIS SUSPECT
GIVEN WE`LL STILL BE IN A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE
RAP SHOWS PVA MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON IN THE EVENING WITH
850 LI`S IN THE NEGATIVE. ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AREA UNDER THE THREAT OF STORMS WITH MORE FREQUENT
STORMS POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH SQUEEZING THE RIDGE DOWN A
LITTLE. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
HUG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS...AND
OCCASIONAL SCATTERING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH BEND SHOULD BE IN AND
OUT OF THE CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING...AND IN THE AFTERNOON THE
TERMINAL IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOCKED IN...REMAINING THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE OREGON CASCADES...THE UPPER KLAMATH
BASIN...AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AT KLMT
AND KRBG. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED, DRY, AND
THEREFORE COULD CONTAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS. SK/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE....MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
TODAY WITH VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THERMAL TROUGH WIND PATTERNS...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE ON
EXACTLY HOW CLOSE TO SHORE THE GALES REACH...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING GALES BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS AT LEAST HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN BE SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. SK/SPILDE
&&
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE RED FLAG WARNING (RFWMFR) HEADLINES
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AND THIS CORRIDOR IS AIMED RIGHT OVER SW
OREGON/NORCAL, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS (SHORTWAVES) IS WEAK, BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING AND THE RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ABNORMALLY DRY
FUELS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA (NEAR-RECORD DRYNESS ALONG THE
COAST)...THE THREAT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS A BIG CONCERN FOR
INITIAL ATTACK. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG THE CASCADES.
STORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY, WHERE PWS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH. PWS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES EXIST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
COMPARABLY WETTER. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOWS THAT COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR MOSTLY WET STORMS. WE STILL EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF STORMS). BY
SUNDAY, THE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE THE
AREAS THAT LIKELY SEE THE MOST COVERAGE OF STORMS. FIRE ZONES 615
AND 618 SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR, WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL FORM
INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FIRE ZONE
619.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 624 AND 625. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0850 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN ARE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THAT
STRONG RIDGING LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE SET. BUT, THE FOLLOWING FIVE DAYS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN EXPECTING VALLEY HIGHS
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF 95 TO 110 DEGREES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND 92 TO 102 ON THE EAST SIDE.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRES.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS THAT WERE AT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
YESTERDAY TO RISE TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES TODAY. THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THOSE THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST OREGON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE SREF AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THE
FIRST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND
CASCADES EASTWARD. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NORTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES (IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES) EASTWARD. THAT WILL NOT BE THE EXCLUSIVE
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, JUST THE LIKELY FOCUS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG
THE CASCADES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVES AS THE GFS HAS A FOCUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN OREGON WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION WOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE SPREADING THEM IN A
SOUTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL BUT THEY WILL
ALSO BE FASTER MOVING AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THE NAM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE IT MOVING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AND EVENTUALLY KICK THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST WITH WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST SIDE FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE TROUGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THUS,
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARLY LIMITED TO ONLY
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRANSPIRE WITHOUT
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY FOR THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO SEND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE EAST SIDE
ON TUESDAY THAT WILL EXPAND FARTHER WEST...TO THE WEST SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY WILL BE THE LOWEST FOR THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF MODEL
INDICATES A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
FINALLY CHANGE THE PATTERN AND BRING SOME COOLING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THE GFS IS PERSISTENT AND LEAVES THE HOT GREAT
BASIN RIDGE IN COMMAND. FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
936 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
LIGHT HAZE FROM THE FIRES IN CALIFORNIA MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW HAS NOT BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. MARINE
STRATUS REMAIN NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY,
BUT THAT WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND WE`LL START
TO SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL
AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER DRY
AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, THUS HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL A CONCERN STARTING
MID AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
MAY END UP OVER THE CASCADES AND EASTSIDE, BUT FIND THIS SUSPECT
GIVEN WE`LL STILL BE IN A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE
RAP SHOWS PVA MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON IN THE EVENING WITH
850 LI`S IN THE NEGATIVE. ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AREA UNDER THE THREAT OF STORMS WITH MORE FREQUENT
STORMS POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH SQUEEZING THE RIDGE DOWN A
LITTLE. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION....AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY RISING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE OREGON CASCADES...THE UPPER KLAMATH
BASIN...AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AT KLMT
AND KRBG. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED, DRY, AND
THEREFORE COULD CONTAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS. BTL/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE....MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
TODAY WITH VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THERMAL TROUGH WIND PATTERNS...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE ON
EXACTLY HOW CLOSE TO SHORE THE GALES REACH...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING GALES BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS AT LEAST HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN BE SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. SK/SPILDE
&&
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE RED FLAG WARNING (RFWMFR) HEADLINES
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AND THIS CORRIDOR IS AIMED RIGHT OVER SW
OREGON/NORCAL, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS (SHORTWAVES) IS WEAK, BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING AND THE RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ABNORMALLY DRY
FUELS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA (NEAR-RECORD DRYNESS ALONG THE
COAST)...THE THREAT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS A BIG CONCERN FOR
INITIAL ATTACK. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG THE CASCADES.
STORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY, WHERE PWS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH. PWS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES EXIST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
COMPARABLY WETTER. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOWS THAT COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR MOSTLY WET STORMS. WE STILL EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF STORMS). BY
SUNDAY, THE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE THE
AREAS THAT LIKELY SEE THE MOST COVERAGE OF STORMS. FIRE ZONES 615
AND 618 SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR, WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL FORM
INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FIRE ZONE
619.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 624 AND 625. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0850 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN ARE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THAT
STRONG RIDGING LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE SET. BUT, THE FOLLOWING FIVE DAYS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN EXPECTING VALLEY HIGHS
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF 95 TO 110 DEGREES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND 92 TO 102 ON THE EAST SIDE.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRES.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS THAT WERE AT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
YESTERDAY TO RISE TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES TODAY. THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THOSE THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST OREGON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE SREF AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THE
FIRST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND
CASCADES EASTWARD. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NORTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES (IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES) EASTWARD. THAT WILL NOT BE THE EXCLUSIVE
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, JUST THE LIKELY FOCUS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG
THE CASCADES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVES AS THE GFS HAS A FOCUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN OREGON WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION WOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE SPREADING THEM IN A
SOUTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL BUT THEY WILL
ALSO BE FASTER MOVING AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THE NAM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE IT MOVING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AND EVENTUALLY KICK THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST WITH WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST SIDE FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE TROUGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THUS,
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARLY LIMITED TO ONLY
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRANSPIRE WITHOUT
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY FOR THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO SEND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE EAST SIDE
ON TUESDAY THAT WILL EXPAND FARTHER WEST...TO THE WEST SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY WILL BE THE LOWEST FOR THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF MODEL
INDICATES A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
FINALLY CHANGE THE PATTERN AND BRING SOME COOLING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THE GFS IS PERSISTENT AND LEAVES THE HOT GREAT
BASIN RIDGE IN COMMAND. FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEDFORD OR
0850 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.
.DISCUSSION...A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN ARE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THAT
STRONG RIDGING LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE SET. BUT, THE FOLLOWING FIVE DAYS WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN EXPECTING VALLEY HIGHS
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF 95 TO 110 DEGREES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND 92 TO 102 ON THE EAST SIDE.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRES.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS THAT WERE AT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
YESTERDAY TO RISE TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES TODAY. THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THOSE THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST OREGON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE SREF AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THE
FIRST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND
CASCADES EASTWARD. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NORTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES (IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES) EASTWARD. THAT WILL NOT BE THE EXCLUSIVE
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, JUST THE LIKELY FOCUS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG
THE CASCADES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVES AS THE GFS HAS A FOCUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN OREGON WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION WOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE SPREADING THEM IN A
SOUTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL BUT THEY WILL
ALSO BE FASTER MOVING AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THE NAM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE IT MOVING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AND EVENTUALLY KICK THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST WITH WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST SIDE FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE TROUGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THUS,
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARLY LIMITED TO ONLY
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRANSPIRE WITHOUT
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY FOR THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO SEND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE EAST SIDE
ON TUESDAY THAT WILL EXPAND FARTHER WEST...TO THE WEST SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY WILL BE THE LOWEST FOR THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF MODEL
INDICATES A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
FINALLY CHANGE THE PATTERN AND BRING SOME COOLING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THE GFS IS PERSISTENT AND LEAVES THE HOT GREAT
BASIN RIDGE IN COMMAND. FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
RISING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE OREGON CASCADES...THE UPPER KLAMATH
BASIN...AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AT KLMT
AND KRBG. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED, DRY, AND
THEREFORE COULD CONTAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS. BTL/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY WITH
VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THERMAL
TROUGH WIND PATTERNS...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE ON EXACTLY HOW
CLOSE TO SHORE THE GALES REACH...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING GALES
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN 10
NM FROM SHORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS AT LEAST HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN BE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SK/SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE RED FLAG WARNING (RFWMFR) HEADLINES
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AND THIS CORRIDOR IS AIMED RIGHT OVER SW
OREGON/NORCAL, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS (SHORTWAVES) IS WEAK, BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING AND THE RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ABNORMALLY DRY
FUELS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA (NEAR-RECORD DRYNESS ALONG THE
COAST)...THE THREAT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS A BIG CONCERN FOR
INITIAL ATTACK. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG THE CASCADES.
STORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY, WHERE PWS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH. PWS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES EXIST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
COMPARABLY WETTER. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOWS THAT COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR MOSTLY WET STORMS. WE STILL EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF STORMS). BY
SUNDAY, THE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE THE
AREAS THAT LIKELY SEE THE MOST COVERAGE OF STORMS. FIRE ZONES 615
AND 618 SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR, WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL FORM
INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FIRE ZONE
619.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 624 AND 625. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
DW/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEDFORD OR
501 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN ARE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THAT
STRONG RIDGING LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY TO BE SET. BUT, AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING FIVE DAYS WILL NOT
BE THAT MUCH COOLER. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN EXPECTING
VALLEY HIGHS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF 95 TO 110 DEGREES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND 92 TO 102 ON THE EAST
SIDE.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRES.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS THAT WERE AT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
YESTERDAY TO RISE TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES TODAY. THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THOSE THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST OREGON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE SREF AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THE
FIRST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND
CASCADES EASTWARD. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NORTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES (IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES) EASTWARD. THAT WILL NOT BE THE EXCLUSIVE
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, JUST THE LIKELY FOCUS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG
THE CASCADES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVES AS THE GFS HAS A FOCUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN OREGON WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION WOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE SPREADING THEM IN A
SOUTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL BUT THEY WILL
ALSO BE FASTER MOVING AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THE NAM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE IT MOVING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AND EVENTUALLY KICK THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST WITH WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST SIDE FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE TROUGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THUS,
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARLY LIMITED TO ONLY
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRANSPIRE WITHOUT
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY FOR THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO SEND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE EAST SIDE
ON TUESDAY THAT WILL EXPAND FARTHER WEST...TO THE WEST SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY WILL BE THE LOWEST FOR THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF MODEL
INDICATES A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
FINALLY CHANGE THE PATTERN AND BRING SOME COOLING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THE GFS IS PERSISTENT AND LEAVES THE HOT GREAT
BASIN RIDGE IN COMMAND. FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
RISING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE OREGON CASCADES...THE UPPER KLAMATH
BASIN...AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AT KLMT
AND KRBG. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED, DRY, AND
THEREFORE COULD CONTAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS. BTL/SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY WITH
VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS AT LEAST HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. STRONGEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN BE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2015...HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE RED FLAG WARNING (RFWMFR) HEADLINES
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AND THIS CORRIDOR IS AIMED RIGHT OVER SW
OREGON/NORCAL, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS (SHORTWAVES) IS WEAK, BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING AND THE RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ABNORMALLY DRY
FUELS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA (NEAR-RECORD DRYNESS ALONG THE
COAST)...THE THREAT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS A BIG CONCERN FOR
INITIAL ATTACK. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG THE CASCADES.
STORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY, WHERE PWS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH. PWS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES EXIST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
COMPARABLY WETTER. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOWS THAT COULD CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR MOSTLY WET STORMS. WE STILL EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF STORMS). BY
SUNDAY, THE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE THE
AREAS THAT LIKELY SEE THE MOST COVERAGE OF STORMS. FIRE ZONES 615
AND 618 SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR, WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL FORM
INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FIRE ZONE
619.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 624 AND 625. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
DW/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NEWEST NAM
AND RUC ALSO DO. THIS PUTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COMMON SOLUTION
THAT THE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE N-S FRONT PRESSING EASTWARD
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD. THE RAIN MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO
MAKE SOME FLOODING IF THE CURRENT RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE AND THE
AREA OF SHOWERS SLOWS A BIT. SO...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
RIVER BY 06Z. THEREFORE...I DO NOT ENVISION ANY EXTENSION IN TIME.
TWO RIVER POINTS ARE OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME...CAMP HILL AND
SHIRLEYSBURG. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING IN CAMP HILL AND TO
MONITOR THE RISE ON THE AUGHWICK CREEK. SPRUCE CREEK IS FALLING
AND SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH IF AT ALL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
DESPITE THE CURRENT LIGHT RAIN IN THAT BASIN. DRIER AIR TRIES TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE ALLEGHENIES
WILL MAKE IT DISMAL ON THE RIDGES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE PRECIPITOUS WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER
CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
MODERATED BY A LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL EMANATE FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER AS THESE TROUGHS ARE SHALLOWER...LESS MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER
ACCORDINGLY. NONETHELESS...THIS SERIES OF PERTERBATIONS WILL
PROLONG THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT MOST AIRFIELDS...BUT WILL SEE THAT THREAT DIMINISH
BEFORE 06Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CIGS. IN FACT...WITHOUT
WINDS SIGNIFICANLY PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
MOVING IN...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION BY SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM EDT UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS HELD OFF THUS FAR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME INHIBITION TO VERTICAL MOTION...ESPECIAL IN
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH. MOST MODELS HAVE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH DISAGREEMENTS IN
LOCATION AND TIMING. CURRENTLY EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD OVER WESTERN
GEORGIA TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY MORE SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL...IF NEGATIVE ENERGY IN THE SOUNDINGS CAN BE
OVERCOME...CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CU FINALLY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...AREA IS CLEAR OF RADAR ACTIVITY AT THE
MOMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR HAS SOME CONVECTION AFTER 19Z. SHEAR IS BETTER TO THE
NORTH IN THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...WITH A CONSEQUENT INCREASE IN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND POP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
HRRR EXPECTATIONS.
AS OF 6 AM...AIDED BY ENCROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERCOLATE ALONG THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE ASHING OUT
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH LVL DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING CU.
THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM KY
MCS ACTIVITY REACHING THE NC MTNS BY DAYBREAK BEFORE ASHING OUT
COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN FORCING
AND FLOW AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEARS ON AS S/WV ENERGY
ENCROACHES THE SE CONUS AND UPPER HEIGHTS STEADILY FALL. GIVEN
THIS...TSTM CVRG MAY WIND UP BECOMING NUMEROUS AND POSSIBLY SVR
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST SNDGS DEPICTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DELTA THETA-E
VALUES. WILL FORECAST ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
AND FEATURING WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
IMPULSES WITHIN THE QUICKENING SW FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME
DEGREE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WELL PAST SUNSET...WILL WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
TOKEN CHANCE POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE EASTER USA...WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAKER OPEN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A ROBUST COLD WILL APPROACH FORM THE WEST ON ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE CAPE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
ROUGH WILL EXTENDING ROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND WESTER CANADA. THIS
PATTER PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...THEN DEAMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH REAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST REMAINS RATHER FLAT.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STALLING NEAR THE NC AND SC BORDER BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT MAY KEEP OUR AREA SOMEWHAT
STABLE ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FRONTS MOVING TROUGH THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE HELD OFF THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AS SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH MAY SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDER IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO POORLY DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
FORCING MECHANISMS. CAMS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AS WELL. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME PULSE STORM ACTIVITY IN AREAS ON THE PIEDMONT HELPED BY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE AREA...POTENTIALLY MORE
SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAN BE OVERCOME. A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 6Z BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND PASS THRU
ON SATURDAY. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A SECOND COLD FRONT POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WJM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION BY SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...AREA IS CLEAR OF RADAR ACTIVITY AT THE
MOMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR HAS SOME CONVECTION AFTER 19Z. SHEAR IS BETTER TO THE
NORTH IN THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...WITH A CONSEQUENT INCREASE IN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND POP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
HRRR EXPECTATIONS.
AS OF 6 AM...AIDED BY ENCROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERCOLATE ALONG THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE ASHING OUT
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH LVL DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING CU.
THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM KY
MCS ACTIVITY REACHING THE NC MTNS BY DAYBREAK BEFORE ASHING OUT
COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN FORCING
AND FLOW AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEARS ON AS S/WV ENERGY
ENCROACHES THE SE CONUS AND UPPER HEIGHTS STEADILY FALL. GIVEN
THIS...TSTM CVRG MAY WIND UP BECOMING NUMEROUS AND POSSIBLY SVR
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST SNDGS DEPICTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DELTA THETA-E
VALUES. WILL FORECAST ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
AND FEATURING WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
IMPULSES WITHIN THE QUICKENING SW FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME
DEGREE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WELL PAST SUNSET...WILL WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
TOKEN CHANCE POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE EASTER USA...WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAKER OPEN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A ROBUST COLD WILL APPROACH FORM THE WEST ON ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE CAPE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
ROUGH WILL EXTENDING ROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND WESTER CANADA. THIS
PATTER PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...THEN DEAMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH REAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST REMAINS RATHER FLAT.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STALLING NEAR THE NC AND SC BORDER BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT MAY KEEP OUR AREA SOMEWHAT
STABLE ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FRONTS MOVING TROUGH THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE HELD OFF THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AS SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH MAY SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDER IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO POORLY DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
FORCING MECHANISMS. CAMS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AS WELL. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME PULSE STORM ACTIVITY IN AREAS ON THE PIEDMONT HELPED BY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE AREA...POTENTIALLY MORE
SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAN BE OVERCOME. A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 6Z BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND PASS THRU
ON SATURDAY. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A SECOND COLD FRONT POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WJM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION BY SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...AREA IS CLEAR OF RADAR ACTIVITY AT THE
MOMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR HAS SOME CONVECTION AFTER 19Z. SHEAR IS BETTER TO THE
NORTH IN THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...WITH A CONSEQUENT INCREASE IN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND POP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
HRRR EXPECTATIONS.
AS OF 6 AM...AIDED BY ENCROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERCOLATE ALONG THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE ASHING OUT
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH LVL DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING CU.
THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM KY
MCS ACTIVITY REACHING THE NC MTNS BY DAYBREAK BEFORE ASHING OUT
COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN FORCING
AND FLOW AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEARS ON AS S/WV ENERGY
ENCROACHES THE SE CONUS AND UPPER HEIGHTS STEADILY FALL. GIVEN
THIS...TSTM CVRG MAY WIND UP BECOMING NUMEROUS AND POSSIBLY SVR
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST SNDGS DEPICTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DELTA THETA-E
VALUES. WILL FORECAST ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
AND FEATURING WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
IMPULSES WITHIN THE QUICKENING SW FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME
DEGREE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WELL PAST SUNSET...WILL WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
TOKEN CHANCE POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE EASTER USA...WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAKER OPEN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A ROBUST COLD WILL APPROACH FORM THE WEST ON ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE CAPE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...ON MONDAY AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
ROUGH WILL EXTENDING ROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND WESTER CANADA. THIS
PATTER PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...THEN DEAMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH REAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST REMAINS RATHER FLAT.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STALLING NEAR THE NC AND SC BORDER BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT MAY KEEP OUR AREA SOMEWHAT
STABLE ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FRONTS MOVING TROUGH THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...JUST VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A LIGHT
WIND TENDING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SW 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TSTM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS REDEVELOPING
AND MOVING ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS THE WESTERN NC MTNS THIS MORNING
WITH THE TSTM CVRG STEADILY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...A PROB30
GROUP WILL BE CARRIED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. TSTM CHANCES
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING WITH AT LEAST SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS WITH
RESPECT TO SATURDAY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTION CVRG...BUT THE SREF
LIMITS THE BEST CHANCES TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND PASS THRU
ON SATURDAY. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A SECOND COLD FRONT POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 68%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WJM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...CSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS VERY QUICKLY DESTABILIZED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...UNDER A SUNNY SKY AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AS OF 2 PM EDT...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW 70S IN MANY
PLACES. THE STAGE IS SET FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO GO
STRONG/SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. CAPE VALUES /ALREADY HIGH/...ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 4000+ J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALSO FOR SOME STRONG/ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS INITIAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY EVENING. THE THEN
MORE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT EXACTLY WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MCS/CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
KY/TN AND MOVING INTO THE NW PLATEAU/CUMBERLAND MTNS OF SW VA AROUND
03Z. THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE /IN
A WEAKER STATE/...MAKING IT IN AROUND/AFTER 06Z. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
MUCH WEAKER /COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON/ AFTER SUNSET...WIND SHEAR
INCREASES QUITE A BIT AS THE 850 MB LLJ RAMPS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST
OF MIDDLE TN/EASTERN KY. THOUGH SLIGHTLY DISPLACED...THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP TO KEEP THE LINE GOING INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THINK THAT THERE IS AT
SOME RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE LINE LATER TONIGHT
DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING/DETAILS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IN
A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. GOOD CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL
EXIST WITH THIS SHOWERY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ATTENTION WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES
IT INTO THE REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THAT SOME HEATING
WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY
THE MID AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH BETTER 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER WET-BULB ZERO HGTS...A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
18-00Z TIMEFRAME. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST THREAT...ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN STORE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS WE QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER
PATTERN. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH. TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM OR DISTURBANCE IS IN QUESTION
BUT SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH EACH PERIOD. THE
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 83 63 85 / 70 80 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 81 60 82 / 80 80 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 80 60 82 / 80 80 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 78 58 79 / 80 80 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CONVECTION OVER KY HAS NOT MADE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WITH THE MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST...OUR SW VA COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE SITUATION VERY
WELL...AND IT IS PROBABLY TOO AGGRESSIVE TO BRING THE CONVECTION
SE. THE NAM IS REALLY UNDERDONE WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL
AS THE RAP. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS JUST ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BRING POPS SOUTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON. CAPE WILL BE ABUNDANT TODAY WITH MLCAPES IN THE NAM OVER
3000 J/KG...SO SEVERE STORMS (WIND/HAIL) WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...STRENGTHENING THE LLJ AND PUSHING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN TO MIDDLE TN. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL AS FORCING INCREASES. FLOODING
WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND TRAINING CELLS
EXPECTED IN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CAN ABSORB QUITE A BIT OF RAIN...SO WILL NOT
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TOMORROW MORNING STARTS WITH THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
OF OUR AREA. FRONT WILL USHER IN TWO THINGS THAT WE`VE BEEN MISSING
OUT ON FOR MOST OF THE MONTH... RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AS ENERGY WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
TO CONVERGE OR STRENGTHEN TO THE POINT OF SEVERE LEVELS. THEY WILL
BE AIDED BY AN 850MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 30 - 40 KNOTS.
CAN`T RULE OUT SEVERE SIZE HAIL, BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE ON
FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE LOWER
80`S. LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ANY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90`S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR MOST PLACES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW MOVING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WE THEN DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES MOISTURE SOUTH INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AS A SERIES OF WEAKER
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE CONTINUOUS RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AS THEY STRUGGLE WITH
WHERE THE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
BUT THEY ALL DO AGREE THAT WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THAT SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD COVERAGE WHILE
SEEING CONTINUOUSLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 72 85 63 / 50 70 80 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 71 82 61 / 40 70 80 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 81 62 / 50 80 80 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 70 80 56 / 50 80 80 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/
UPDATE...
A WARM AND MUGGY EVENING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILING NEAR THE CENTER OF OF A 592DM 500MB RIDGE. TO THE
NORTH... AN MCS WAS RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE 01Z HRRR MODEL APPEARED A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN GENERATING AND
ACCELERATING A COLD POOL DIRECTLY SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL MO MCS.
REGARDLESS...OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ENTERING SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IT/S UNKNOWN IF THIS OUTFLOW WILL
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION AT IT MOVES SOUTH UNDER THE MIDLEVEL
RIDGE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON IF THE COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AT THE RATE THE HRRR SUGGESTS.
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FROM NORTHEAST AR THROUGH NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES
ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND
HEAT INDEX VALUE ARE ALSO NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS WELL. SOME LOCATIONS
ALREADY HAVE HAD HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 105 AND WITH A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT SOME OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO REACH ABOVE
105. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND WILL REACH NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THEY BEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE
60S. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BY MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO STALL OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE (26/06Z-27/06Z)
VFR MOST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. NARROWED DOWN TIMING OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY...RESULTING
IN EXPECTED IMPACTS DURING FEDEX NIGHT OPS AT MEM. IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR ISOLATED EARLIER/AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW IS LEANING TOWARDS A VCSH REMARK. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH STORM INDUCED WINDS...KNOWING THAT A FEW STORMS
IN THE AREA COULD PRODUCE STRONGER GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL START TO
IMPACT TUP AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHILE IT STARTS TAPERING
OFF AT JBR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS BY MID MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
614 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THE
FEATURE...FAVORING MN/IA. SWATH OF 925-700 MB LEADS THE SHORTWAVE
IN...ALSO TAKING A MORE MN-IA TRACK. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT. AT THE SFC...AN ASSOCIATED NORTH-SOUTH
RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA BY 18Z SUN. NO
TAP TO GULF MOISTURE...BUT SOME 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT - ALBEIT
FROM THE NORTHWEST - COMES WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE PWS APPROACH
1.5 INCHES. CERTAINLY ENOUGH SATURATION TO FUEL THE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES.
AS FOR ANY SEVERE RISK...THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BUILD A THIN RIDGE
OF ABOUT 1500 SBCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS CO-
LOCATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ACTIVE REGION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ITS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE VALUES ARE REALISTIC
GIVEN THIS LIKELIHOOD. WHATEVER INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP WILL
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PAINT A REALLY SKINNY
PROFILE TO THE CAPE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR
IS ALSO MEAGER...MOSTLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND AROUND 20 KTS.
THUS...SEVERE RISK LOOKS VERY LOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE A RIGHT TURN EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AFTER IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ANOTHER
WEAKER RIPPLE FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MOSTLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SFC TROUGH COULD LINK THE SFC LOW FROM THE
SUNDAY CONVECTION WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THIS NEXT RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW. IF SO...THE BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...AND LOOKS
TO BRING A MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY TO A BULK OF THE REGION. THAT
SAID...A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH. FIRST IS HOW QUICKLY THE MONDAY
SYSTEM EXITS. IF ITS A BIT SLOWER...SOME RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/EAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD STREAK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM FAVORS
SPINNING THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/EC KEEP IT TO
THE WEST. SIDING WITH THE GFS/EC IN THIS STEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING VARIOUS RIPPLES THROUGH THE
FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
THAT/S EXPECTED. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THEIR LATEST RUNS
THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SKIRT NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY EACH DAY TO TAP INTO...SO ANY BOUNDARY OR
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME SHOWER/STORMS. THAT
SAID...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION...WHILE CONTINUING SMALL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE/WHEN ON THE VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS COULD
SLIDE IN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR MOST AREAS
STAYING DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA WAS PRODUCING
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THE CAPE
DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. STILL ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE
TO MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX AND LOOKING AT THE MESO MODELS...THE
27.18Z HRRR AND 27.12Z HI-RES ARW ARE THE QUICKEST TO BRING THE
COMPLEX IN WITH IT REACHING KRST BY 08Z. THE 27.12Z CR-NAM NEST
AND HI-RES NMM ARE 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. PLAN TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE
FASTER SOLUTIONS WITH A VCSH FOR BOTH TAF SITES AND THEN GO WITH
CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND VCTS BY 10Z AT KRST AND 12Z AT KLSE. THIS
INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH A BREAK EXPECTED BEFORE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MESO SCALE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING BUT HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 27.18Z NAM...THERE LOOKS
TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW...WILL GO BACK
TO A VCTS FOR BOTH TAF SITES AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND
CARRY THIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST
PART...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ALL THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FOR A WHILE AT KRST WITH THE INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONVECTION FIRING IN A BROAD REGION OF UNSTABLE AIR...JUST NEEDING A
FOCUS TO GET IT GOING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY PLACES ONE CLUSTER
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS TIED TO A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. OVER IA INTO NORTHERN ILL IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ENHANCED CU AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE THE RULE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT BOTH AREAS
OF PCPN TO CONTINUE - DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT...THE RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
RUNNING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND INCREASE POPS IF THIS BECOMES LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST...SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL WARMING - ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CENTERED OVER IA. 300 MB
JET STREAK LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE LIFT. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALL THE
MODELS HAVE SAID AS MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/AREAS OF RAIN AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS BRING
THE SHORTWAVE IN BY 12Z SUN...WITH PCPN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THAT TIME. THE PCPN AND TROUGH
AXIS THEN SWINGS INTO WESTERN WI FOR SUN AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY...MOST OF WHICH LIES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER -
ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AT 12Z
SUN MORNING...BUT THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS IS POST THE PCPN SHIELD AND MUCH OF THE
DYNAMICS. NOT SURE IT WILL/COULD BE UTILIZED BY THE EXPECTED ONGOING
CONVECTION...OR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALL IN
ALL...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
THE MORNING...EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD ONTO THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN
TROUGH CONFIGURATION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL FLOW WOULD SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE BITS OF ENERGY - AS EXPECTED - BUT
NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD...ALL-DAY KIND OF
RAIN EVENTS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR DON/T FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE BLANKET OF SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...REVISING AS THE DETAILS BECOMING
CLEARER.
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS. IN ADDITION...NO TO LIMITED TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THIS...INCLUDED SHOWERS IN THE
TEMPO GROUP AT KRST THROUGH 26.20Z. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3-5K DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH 27.05Z AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SHIFT TO NORTH AFTER 27.05Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG...BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...DID NOT INCLUDE IT
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE STORM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND A LINGERING
SHOWER WILL BE AROUND FOR MONDAY MORNING...MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...A FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
KENX RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER ELEMENTS EMBEDDED THE RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL IS THE
RESULT OF STRONG WARM AID ADVECTION....WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 HPA PICKING UP PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS WESTERN UPSTATE NY. SO FAR...RAINFALL RATES HAVEN/T BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING RATES OF 0.10 OR LESS
PER HOUR /OCCASIONALLY A FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN 0.10 TO 0.25 PER
HOUR/. THIS RAINFALL DOESN/T APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...BUT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS/LOW
VISIBILITY WILL MAKE FOR LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL OVERNIGHT. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
EARLY...BUT WILL WAIT A BIT TO SEE HOW RAINFALL EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGEST RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HEAVIER BANDS
AT TIMES IN SPOTS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CAN SEE UP TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH MID MORNING OR
SO...WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENTS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY...EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT MENTION A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER UNTIL
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
E-SE WINDS OVER THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN GREENS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING...AND THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OR SO. A FEW GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IS WHY THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING ON...POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
RANGE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END.
HOWEVER...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
NORTHWARD...SO GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS
(EVEN SOME DRIZZLE) WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY
NOT HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MILDER AIR THE
LONGEST...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS
THERE WILL BE IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AT FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATER ON DUE TO POSSIBLE SURFACE HEATING
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE TSTM. THIS
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES FURTHER NORTHEAST LIMITING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. SO A GRADUAL PULL BACK IN THE
POPS/WX IS FORECAST INCLUDING SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SINUSOIDAL WAVES WILL DICTATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN OSCILLATING PATTERN
BETWEEN TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...27/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR CLEVELAND...SOME GOOD
DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR OUR REGION. A CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT ALSO BE RULED OUT AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE 6.0 C/KM IS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MODEL MEMBERS. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IN QUESTION
WITH NO CONSISTENT MEMBERS BETWEEN THE PROBABILISTIC MODEL RUNS. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NY STATE AS
WE GO INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED MORE DEFINED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....AS WE GO TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS OUR REGION
IS IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80 KT JET WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOME 27/12Z MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY BY FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING SOME CONTINUED
TRANQUIL WEATHER. SOME 12Z MODEL DATA IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
EVENING UNDER WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GOOD MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE OTHER MODEL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRING MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY ERODING AS CIGS AND RAIN ARE COMING DOWN
WITH SOLID MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE...LLWS POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO AS CROSS SECTIONS AND VWPS ALL SUGGEST 35KTS OR
GREATER AROUND 2K FEET. LOW CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY
WITH AN INCREASE CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A RATHER DAMP DAY WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KPSF/KGFL.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD A EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH MORE SURFACE
GUSTS AT KPSF OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES...WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
THE NAM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE. 12Z RUN HAD ONE TO 3.5 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE 18Z NAM RUN HAS NOW
REDUCED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS. GETTING A GOOD LOOK ON RADAR NOW AT THE AREA OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION. BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADARS AND PCPN OBSERVATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR THE REGION LOOKS GOOD...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
FLOODING...BUT WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SINCE RAIN HASN/T
EVEN STARTED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAINFALL
INTENSITY MAY PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY.
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ONLY ABOUT A HALF DOZEN FORECAST POINTS
RISING TO ABOVE THE CAUTION STAGE. 5 OF THE 6 POINTS ARE SLOW
RESPONDING RESERVOIR/LAKE LEVEL FORECASTS. THE OTHER IS RIVERBANK
WHICH IS ALSO USUALLY VERY SLOW TO RESPOND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
313 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z STILL BACK IN THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH GEORGIA. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS OR
COASTAL PLAIN. RADAR INDICATING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CSRA. HRRR SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING..MAY ENHANCE
SHOWERS BUT OVERALL LIFT APPEARS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH FOCUS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN AND MID LEVEL CAPPING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOS GUIDANCE MEAN TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED...TEMPERATURES WARMER
DURING THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AT NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...90 TO 95 THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STRATUS.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME LOW CIGS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 10Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS ENTERING THE REGION. COVERAGE OF REMAINING SHOWERS IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION. FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE TAF SITES AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
318 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RECORD HEAT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 110 IN PARTS OF
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. MOST OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS SITES WILL
ACHIEVE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT. MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN
MONSOON-LIKE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...MAINLY IMPACTING SE OREGON
BUT ALSO SW IDAHO. MUCH LIKE YDAY...THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
PREVENT RECORD HIGHS FROM BEING SET IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
OR MOVE IN TO PREVENT THE RECORD HEAT. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...THROUGH 9 PM MDT TONIGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SCATTERED STORMS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...BUT WE DO NOT AGREE WITH ITS
SOLUTION. THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF HARNEY COUNTY IN THE
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. FINALLY...THE HRRR OUTPUT
INDICATES STRONG WINDS MOVING NORTH FROM NEAR THE NV BORDER DUE TO
STORM OUTFLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE
INDICATED BY THE HRRR IS OVERDONE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA AS OF 3
AM MDT...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGS SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD-SETTING HEAT. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY INTO OUR NRN ZONES
IN BOTH OREGON AND IDAHO...WITH BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MTNS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. THESE STORMS COULD AGAIN BRING GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES LESS HOT TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IDAHO
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NV/UT KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH SOLUTIONS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN EACH RUN. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST WITH A DRIER AND WARMER BIAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND
IDAHO CENTRAL MTNS. VARIABLE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING ORZ064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING ORZ636-646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
414 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.
AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE 13Z TO 15Z SUNDAY TIMING
OF THE INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TAKEN AN INITIAL STAB AT
HIGHLIGHTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGHER INTENSITY STORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW...KCID/KBRL LOOK MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING...MAINLY AT KBRL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE
WILL COME THROUGH VTN-CDR BY 08Z BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WITH WIND SPEED EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN
12KT BY 13Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN PRESS FORWARD...REACHING BBW-LBF-
OGA 10-12Z WITH THE SPEED INCREASING TO 12KT OR GREATER 15-17Z.
NO REDUCTION IN CEILING OR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EVEN THOUGH HRRR MODEL GENERALLY HAD TOO MUCH PCPN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS...THAT MODEL ALONG WITH SOME OTHERS GENERATE ISOLD
TO SCT PCPN ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
BUT NO OTHER SGFNT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 7 PM. OTHERWISE...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CLIPPER COMING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS COULD CLIP A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN IOWA AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS WAVE WILL
SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH THE THE AREA SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE NEXT CLIPPER COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES IN
FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE AREA COULD
STILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON FRIDAY FOR
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY SHOULD BE DRY. THE NEXT
WAVE COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SOUTH OF I80. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
STRONGER STORMS THAT WERE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAD WEAKENED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON COVERAGE BUT THINK KOFK AND KOMA COULD GET SOME LIGHT
PCPN. ANY CEILINGS WOULD LIKELY BE ABOVE 4000 FEET. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
914 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS....PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS WORKING
NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AS THE JET FEEDS MOISTURE NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFFSHORE. SKY COVER
WAS ADJUSTED UP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT GIVEN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WAS PRESENTLY AROUND ON SATELLITE.
CONVECTION IS STILL GOING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS IT ADVANCES
WEST. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH OUT FOR HERE WILL BE ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT GET PUSHED INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH AND ANY BLOWING DUST. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SKY GRIDS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWFA FOR SUNDAY
MORNING BUT THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED OVERNIGHT ONCE WE SEE HOW THINGS
ACTUALLY UNFOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
TSRA OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE SCT120 IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 20 KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SIMILAR...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE FAVORED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 300 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REACHED 112 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY IN LAS VEGAS. WITH
MOISTURE TRENDING UPWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SIERRA WEST OF BISHOP AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING FROM THE EAST WITH WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
SIERRA. LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. LOW GRADE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. WITH NO NOTABLE FEATURES TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT... ACTIVITY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MEANDERING AROUND NEVADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SLOWLY CIRCULATING IN
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN 108 AND 113 DEGREES ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONES. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAILY HEATING WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN ANY
PARTICULAR ZONE ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED 15-20 POPS OVER THE DESERT ZONES AND 20-30
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATED THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS
OF A CHANCE OF FOR CONVECTION GOING INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR
IN FORECASTING SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BASED ON AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND DWINDLING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. A 90KT 300MB JET STREAK
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ALIGNED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND MOVING SOUTH WITH TIME. HAD SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THOSE
HAVE ENDED. THE JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER AWAY
OVERNIGHT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY A CLEAR SKY.
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SKY COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF 19Z THE FRONT
HAD CROSSED ROLLA...BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
REMAIN ON WESTERN FLANK OF 110KT JET STREAK...IN LESS FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A LITTLE CIN IN PLACE AS
OF 19Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WAS ALSO IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA HOWEVER
WHICH MAY BE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS
HANDLED THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL...ALTHOUGH IT HAS OVERDONE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST HAD CONF CALL WITH SPC AND WILL ISSUE TORNADO
WATCH FOR OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF FOSTER...STUTSMAN...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND LIKELY STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.
IT IS A MINI PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE
WAVES WILL BE KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED
THE PERIOD WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS
NOT REALISTIC.
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR CLE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ENE. FLOODING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
STILL CONTINUING IN NWRN CO`S. HRRR HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO
ALLOWING FOR THIS PATCH OF RAIN TO ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 06Z
AS IF SHIFTS EASTWARD. SCT CONVECTION IN THE EAST STILL CONTINUES
BUT CELLS ON THE SMALL SIDE SO ONLY EXPECT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
THERE.
COULD PUSH THE EDGE AND CHOP OUT A FEW CO`S IN NE OH FROM THE FLOOD
WATCH AND GET AWAY WITH IT. HOWEVER...JUST TOO MUCH DYNAMICS PRESENT
TO TAKE THAT CHANCE...BESIDES SOME AREAS STILL HAVE SOME MINOR
FLOODING TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE CREEKS AND RIVERS.
SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES.
THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
DIMINISH AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS UNDER THE CALM WITH THE LOW WILL SEE WINDS COME UP
SOME AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED EAST OF CLE WHERE WIND WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. RAIN HAS MORE OF LESS ENDED IN TOL
AND FDY WILL BE WINDING DOWN SHORTLY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN
SHOWERS SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW. THE STRONGEST WIND
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH FDY GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 30 KNOTS EARLIER. BY 18Z THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AND
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA. SUN NIGHT WESTERN
SITES WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR AND ALL SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN THE WIND...EVEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
DAYBREAK MON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. LAKE LEVELS HAVE RETURNED
TO NEAR NORMAL AND WINDS WERE MORE FROM THE NORTH VS THE NORTHEAST
WHICH ALLOWED LEVELS TO DROP.
ORIGINAL...WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN AS GALES PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND
PORTIONS OF LUCAS COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN
THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE
MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER
WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT GOING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>019-022-023-033-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>145-
162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 95 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 95 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 91 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EPISODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE NW PLATEAU...ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS. WLY FLOW IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...RANGING
FROM AROUND 60F IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LWR SQV.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SE.
ONLY FLOOD PRODUCT IN EFFECT IS FLW FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT
SHIRLEYSBURG. THERE ARE 5 ADDITIONAL POINTS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF TUESDAY/D3. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DIG INTO
IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 ---
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR
PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN GIVEN THE EPISODIC NATURE OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT MOST AIRFIELDS...BUT WILL SEE THAT THREAT DIMINISH
BEFORE 06Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CIGS. IN FACT...WITHOUT
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
MOVING IN...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLW CONTINUES FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST
CREST OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS BEING MONITORED
ABOVE CS INCLUDE: CONFLUENCE...WILLIAMSBURG...SPRUCE CREEK...BEECH
CREEK STATION AND HOGESTOWN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
519 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EPISODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE NW PLATEAU...ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS. WLY FLOW IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...RANGING
FROM AROUND 60F IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LWR SQV.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SE.
ONLY FLOOD PRODUCT IN EFFECT IS FLW FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT
SHIRLEYSBURG. THERE ARE 4 ADDITIONAL POINTS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF TUESDAY/D3. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DIG INTO
IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 ---
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR
PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN GIVEN THE EPISODIC NATURE OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT MOST AIRFIELDS...BUT WILL SEE THAT THREAT DIMINISH
BEFORE 06Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CIGS. IN FACT...WITHOUT
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
MOVING IN...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLW ISSUED FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST CREST
OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS IN THE JUNIATA BASIN
ARE ABOVE CAUTION STAGE AND BEING MONITORED. IN THE WEST BRANCH
SUSQ BASIN...THE BALD EAGLE CREEK AT BEECH CREEK STATION IS ABOVE
CS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CONODOGUINET CREEK AT HOGESTOWN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR EVENING CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SO INCREASED SKY COVER
WORDING THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. ALSO
ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY WARMER WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 7 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY WITH MORE DRY WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A NEW COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND FRONT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS NEXT FRONT WILL START TO WEAKEN AND STALL
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WITH VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HRRR AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND
RECENT RAINFALL AT MKL...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARD MORNING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH MOST
ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS TRYING TO
HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH HAS COME TO FRUITION
AS OF YET. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT FOR
HEATING TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST
HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WAS PRIMARILY ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING. CAPE VALUES
ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE VALUES DROP OFF A BIT FURTHER MONDAY AND THE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF AS WELL. WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE WILL
BE COL AT 500 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS
COL CREATES DEFORMATIONAL FLOW STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NW AND SE TROUGHS TO THE SW AND NE AND THIS
IS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SUMMER SEASON. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE COL IS EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE NE TROUGH DEEPENS. STILL
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS 25 KNOT
850 FLOW LEADS TO WEAK ASCENT AND POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 90 72 89 73 / 20 30 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 90 71 89 72 / 20 30 20 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 89 72 / 20 20 20 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 71 89 71 / 20 20 20 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 92 74 91 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 71 89 72 / 20 20 20 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 20 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 88 72 / 20 30 20 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 90 73 89 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 90 73 89 73 / 20 20 20 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 73 89 73 / 20 20 20 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
TALE OF TWO HALVES FOR THIS WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE ON A WET NOTE.
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NEXT IN LONG LINE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
SPARKING SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERTAKE MOST OF THE
AREA...LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING AS WAVE DIVES INTO UPPER TROUGH.
REGARDING ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THIS
WAVE IS FAR MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH OF THE AREA. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAIN FACTOR FOR US. NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS AHEAD OF WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES...BUT PUTTING MORE WEIGHT IN MORE CONSERVATIVE
GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THAT SHOWERS WILL BE OVER MOST OF AREA BEFORE MLCAPE
CAN BUILD. SHORT WAVE ITSELF IS FAIRLY STRONG AND HAS SMALL AREA OF
DECENT SHEAR. BEST SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ARE BEFORE ANY
CAPE BUILDS WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY. WILL MENTION A RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH IN PLACES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNDERCUT TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...AND COULD STILL BE TOO WARM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LIKE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...LOOKING FOR RAIN FREE
PERIODS IN THIS FORECAST REGIME IS TOUGH CONSIDERING SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS FLOW OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
NEXT WAVE TO DROP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUBTLE LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEEP SHEAR COULD AID A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL BUT ACTIVITY MIGHT IMPACT AREA MORE INTO THE
EVENING WHEN THINGS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE STABLE.
ANOTHER SUBTLE FEATURE COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE ON WISCONSIN SIDE...CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
AS BRIEF UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN.
SAD TO SAY BUT THE CYCLE LOOKS TO CONTINUE UP TO THE 4TH OF JULY.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
SUBTLE WAVES WITH OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT RUNS OUT OF THE BEST INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT THIS TO START AFFECTING KRST
AROUND 07Z AND KLSE NEAR 09Z. THE CHANCE FOR THE RAIN SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES PAST THE TAF SITES.
UP STREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AT MOST COMING DOWN TO THE 4 TO 5
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. A BREAK SHOULD THEN OCCUR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH START TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR. THE 28.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM ALL
SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING
ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 28.01Z HRRR KEEPS THE ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WITH A BIT MORE A BREAK
SUNDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT...THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND
1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THEM. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE SO WILL STAY WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST AND THE CAPE
STARTS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THE
FEATURE...FAVORING MN/IA. SWATH OF 925-700 MB LEADS THE SHORTWAVE
IN...ALSO TAKING A MORE MN-IA TRACK. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT. AT THE SFC...AN ASSOCIATED NORTH-SOUTH
RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA BY 18Z SUN. NO
TAP TO GULF MOISTURE...BUT SOME 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT - ALBEIT
FROM THE NORTHWEST - COMES WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE PWS APPROACH
1.5 INCHES. CERTAINLY ENOUGH SATURATION TO FUEL THE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES.
AS FOR ANY SEVERE RISK...THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BUILD A THIN RIDGE
OF ABOUT 1500 SBCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS CO-
LOCATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ACTIVE REGION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ITS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE VALUES ARE REALISTIC
GIVEN THIS LIKELIHOOD. WHATEVER INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP WILL
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PAINT A REALLY SKINNY
PROFILE TO THE CAPE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR
IS ALSO MEAGER...MOSTLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND AROUND 20 KTS.
THUS...SEVERE RISK LOOKS VERY LOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE A RIGHT TURN EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AFTER IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ANOTHER
WEAKER RIPPLE FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MOSTLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SFC TROUGH COULD LINK THE SFC LOW FROM THE
SUNDAY CONVECTION WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THIS NEXT RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW. IF SO...THE BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...AND LOOKS
TO BRING A MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY TO A BULK OF THE REGION. THAT
SAID...A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH. FIRST IS HOW QUICKLY THE MONDAY
SYSTEM EXITS. IF ITS A BIT SLOWER...SOME RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/EAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD STREAK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM FAVORS
SPINNING THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/EC KEEP IT TO
THE WEST. SIDING WITH THE GFS/EC IN THIS STEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING VARIOUS RIPPLES THROUGH THE
FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
THAT/S EXPECTED. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THEIR LATEST RUNS
THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SKIRT NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY EACH DAY TO TAP INTO...SO ANY BOUNDARY OR
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME SHOWER/STORMS. THAT
SAID...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION...WHILE CONTINUING SMALL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE/WHEN ON THE VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS COULD
SLIDE IN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR MOST AREAS
STAYING DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT RUNS OUT OF THE BEST INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT THIS TO START AFFECTING KRST
AROUND 07Z AND KLSE NEAR 09Z. THE CHANCE FOR THE RAIN SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES PAST THE TAF SITES.
UP STREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AT MOST COMING DOWN TO THE 4 TO 5
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. A BREAK SHOULD THEN OCCUR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH START TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR. THE 28.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND HI-RES NMM ALL
SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING
ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 28.01Z HRRR KEEPS THE ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WITH A BIT MORE A BREAK
SUNDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT...THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND
1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THEM. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE SO WILL STAY WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST AND THE CAPE
STARTS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
815 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/NAM GUIDANCE WE`RE MAKING A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE ZONES TODAY. ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. IN FACT HRRR SHOWS AN ARCING 45KT+ OUTFLOW
MARCHING NORTHWARD THROUGH CHURCHILL-PERSHING COUNTIES 5-8 PM. WHILE
THIS EXACT FEATURE MAY NOT MATERIALIZE IT IS INDICATIVE OF A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST, SO WE`RE UPDATING TO
INCLUDE THAT ALONG WITH INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE FOR LOL/NFL AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY WE DESTABILIZE, EVOLUTION OF STORMS TODAY FOR THE SIERRA, NE
CA, AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION IS QUITE HIGH RIGHT NOW. SO ASSUMING WE
DON`T CLOUD OVER TOO QUICKLY, SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER NOON WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. CS
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
TOMORROW. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT WAVE STARTING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WERE A HEALTHY MIX OF
WET/DRY WITH SOME LOCATIONS MEASURING 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER WHILE
OTHER STORMS MOVED TOO QUICKLY TO PUT DOWN MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN.
SATURDAY`S STORMS DID PROVIDE QUITE THE LIGHTNING SHOW WITH OVER
25 NEW FIRE STARTS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1" FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. DURING
PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH > 1" PWAT VALUES STORMS DEVELOPED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND, STORMS SHOULD GET SOME EXTRA
HELP FROM FORCING ALOFT AS A PV WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING
AROUND 21-0Z (WITH THE PV WAVE PASSAGE) STARTING IN MONO/ALPINE
COUNTIES THEN MOVING QUICKLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE WITH TODAY`S STORMS LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY`S STORMS, SO THE TREND
APPEARS TO BE TOWARDS MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS
WILL BE MOVING, THEY WILL LIKELY BE WET WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON FIRE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL DEBRIS
FLOWS, ESPECIALLY SINCE A COUPLE OF MINOR ROCK SLIDES WERE REPORTED
YESTERDAY.
ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DRY
AIR INUNDATES AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THOSE AREAS. MOISTURE CONTENT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL REMAIN HIGHER, AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE FOR MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH A RESURGENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE. LEFT OUT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR NOW, BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF MOISTURE FOR
TUESDAY. WEISHAHN
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEWER CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE
MAIN CHANGES TO MAKE IT WARMER NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/EC DIFFER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE HIGH CENTER OVER
NEVADA WHILE THE EC MOVES IT NEAR THE CA/NV/OR TRIPLE POINT. IN
ADDITION, THE ORIENTATION IS DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS MORE NW-SE AND
THE EC E-W. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, I LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS
WITH MOST CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95 NOT
SPREADING NORTH UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS CONVECTION TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY
WHILE THE EC SUGGESTS DRY DAYS WED-THU WITH MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT
LEAST ON 700 TEMPS, WARMED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPS
NEAR/ABOVE 100 IN WRN NV VALLEYS WHILE THE SIERRA VALLEYS HOVER
NEAR 90. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, BUT
THIS CAN CHANGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS RENO/LOVELOCK/TRUCKEE AS
WARM AS 106/110/93 RESPECTIVELY FOR THURSDAY. SINCE THE GUIDANCE
RAN A LITTLE WARM FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS WHEN WE WERE 5 DAYS OUT,
DID NOT GO THAT WARM, BUT 103/107/92 IS STILL PLENTY HOT. OF
COURSE, IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 DEGREE 700 TEMPS, IT
COULD BE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AND APPROACH ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGHS. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE TSRA 20-03Z. MAIN THREATS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS AND SOME HAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED, KTVL/KTRK/KMMH THE
HIGHEST. SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE SFC WND GUSTS TO 50-60 KTS (5 PCT AT
ANY ONE POINT). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS TODAY
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME WRN NV. WALLMANN
FIRE WEATHER...
12Z RAOB IS IN AND IT IS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION, WITH STRONGER FORCING EXPECTED TODAY AND MORE MOISTURE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THE STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND WETTER
TODAY. STRONG OUTFLOWS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH WETTER STORMS DRY STRIKES
OUTSIDE THE RAIN CORES SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS TODAY. IN ADDITION,
MORE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. A FEW STARTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE WETTER STORMS WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AND NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH HEAVIER RAINS EXPECTED, LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH IT ALONG WITH THE IMET ASSIGNED TO THE INCIDENT.
WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDSWEPT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS
AND/OR DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DOWN TREE
LIMBS/BRANCHES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER
WEATHER ARRIVES TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WED. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI AND/OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING ***
7 AM UPDATE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAIN RAIN BAND AT 645 AM WAS FROM ABOUT WORCESTER EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHEAST MA AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO THE
GREATER BOSTON AREA. THIS BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL ESE JET OF UP TO 55 KT AT 3-4KFT PER OUR VAD WIND PROFILE.
THIS JET AND RAINBAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING WITH LESS INTENSE LOW TOP SHOWERS TO FOLLOW FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY AVERAGED 0.20 TO 0.40
INCHES WITH AN OCCASIONAL 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES PER DUAL POL AND
OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL REDUCE FLOOD THREAT. 06Z NAM/GFS AND
LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP HAVE LOWERED QPF THRU 18Z A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WALL OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY HAVE
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARD...IE 2" PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HEAVY/STEADY RAIN ENDS 9 AM TO 11 AM FROM SOUTH OF NORTH BUT MAY
LINGER ACROSS CAPE ANN/ESSEX COUNTY UNTIL MIDDAY OR SO.
...STRONG WINDS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONGEST PRES FALLS ARE CENTERED
OVER NANTUCKET AT 5 MBS OVER THE PAST 3 HRS. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE STRONG EAST WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH. EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO AID IN TRANSFER OF
STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH WIND THREAT DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MIDDAY...EXCEPT CAPE ANN WHERE STRONG WINDS
MAY LINGER UNTIL 1 PM OR 2 PM. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY CONFIGURATION
HANDLES THIS THINKING SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
OVERALL THOUGHT PROCESS WITH THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...
THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS DEVELOPED A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH JERSEY AS OF 4 AM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH A
STRONG LLJ AND TROPICAL CONNECTIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS TO GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH ACROSS SOUTH
COAST.
RAINFALL/FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BERKS APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH MANY SITES RECEIVING CLOSE TO AN INCH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO PINPOINT THIS REGION AS ONE OF THE QPF MAXS SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH.
LOOKING DOWNSTREAM APPEARS THAT PRECIP IS MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS
OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LLJ AND VERY HIGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. IN FACT OFF OF SPC MESO PAGE...PWAT VALUES ARE REACHING
OVER 2 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ELEVATION CONVECTION...COULD SEE A SECONDARY MAX OVER THE 95
CORRIDOR INTO NE MASS. HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PINPOINT THIS REGION STILL...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. CURIOUS IF IT WILL ROB
THE REGION FROM SOME OF THE ACTION. HOWEVER WITH A FIREHOSE OF
MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE EAST...AND UPWARD FLOW OVER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LI...ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT...IT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH. ANTICIPATE
STEADIER RAIN TO TURN MORE SHOWERY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH THE DRY SLOT ALOFT...AND AN INVERSION TRAPPING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT STRATUS/FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON LASTING WELL UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DEF NOT AN IDEAL DAY
FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
WINDS...
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. MANY SITES ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH COAST ARE ALREADY RECEIVING GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45
MPH. THE OKX WFO HAD REPORTED SOME TREE DAMAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 33 KTS. BELIEVE SATURATED
GROUND AND FULLY LEAVED TREES AIDED IN THE DAMAGE REPORT. ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP...ANTICIPATE MORE REPORTS TO FILTER INTO THE OFFICE AS
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 35-50 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE JET WITH 925 MB
INCREASING BETWEEN 50-60 KTS AROUND 12Z. THIS JET MAY MIX DOWN
WITHIN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE 10
AM FOR RHODE ISLAND AND CAPE/ISLANDS...CLOSER TIL NOON FOR THE
NORTHEAST AREAS.
CONVECTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH EACH RUN.
THEREFORE HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IF SNE WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE RAW WITH HIGHS
REACHING IN THE LOW 60S...WITH 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE WARM
FRONT MAY SIT. WE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF COOLEST MAX
TEMPERATURE. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUND EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...THE BEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH SURF...
GIVEN SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 7 AND 13 FEET ACROSS OUR OUTER-
WATERS...CONTINUES THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
FACING OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF MA/RI. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY FAR FROM AN IDEAL BEACH DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE WELL OVER BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER NIGHT WITH THE
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING THIS PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT
RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER WESTERN CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
MAINTAINS A DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN POSITION
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER
DAY. IN BETWEEN MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THRU WED. THUS WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS TYPICAL SHORT COMINGS AT
THIS TIME RANGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS. THUS LEANED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLES HERE.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...
MONDAY...OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE IN ST LWRN RVR VLY EXITS INTO THE
MARITIMES WITH HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURRING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME MODELS GENERATING QPF THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
NEVERTHELESS A VERY NICE DAY.
TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OH
VLY. APPEARS WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE BUT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE CT RVR VLY AND WESTWARD INTO NY STATE. THUS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN DRY. S-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL
SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA SO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE U70S AND
L80S...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE REGION YIELDING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THAN TUE. GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ALL
SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE RISK OF A
FEW STRONG T-STORMS. WARM AND HUMID WITH RELIEF ARRIVING WED NIGHT
OR THU AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THU/FRI/SAT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DISPLAY LARGE SPREAD HERE SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLES FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SUGGEST DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH WED. THEN A RISK FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FRI
AND/OR SAT AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z OR 09Z TAFS. BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MA PIKE INTO
BOSTON METRO AREA. RAIN SLACKENS 9 AM TO 11 AM FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LIGHTER SHOWERS THEREAFTER. STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO 45 KT
EASE AFTER 15Z. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AS STEADY -RA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SITES COULD DROP TO IFR WITHIN ANY +RA.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ALONG THE
COASTLINES OF RA/MA.
AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS +SHRA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. E-SE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 30
TO 40 KNOTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. LLWS WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUS EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.
EMBEDDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.
RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY HANG TOUGH IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND DRIZZLE PATCHES BUT SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT
MAY OCCUR ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA AS THE REGION WARM
SECTORS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
INVERSION OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
2 SM FOG ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE. IMPROVEMENTS AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY.
TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY FOR RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOW RISK OF MVFR
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR LIKELY.
THU...TRENDING TOWARD VFR AND DRIER AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TIL SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS THIS
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH EASTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KNOTS. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER- WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 TO 13 FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM LEFTOVER LARGE SE
SWELLS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME SOUTH WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BECOME LIKELY AS WELL.
THURSDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH FRONT LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...MOST AREA RIVERS ARE AT THEIR NORMAL
SEASONAL LOW POINTS AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...ITS POSSIBLE FFG MAY BE EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS.
WIDESPREAD FFG VALUES ARE NEARLY 2.0 INCHES/1 HOUR...2.5 INCHES/3
HOUR...AND 3 INCHES/6 HOUR RATES. NORMALLY FLASHY BASINS/STREAMS
MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL AS FFG RATES WILL BE LOWER IN THESE LOCATIONS.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE 2 MAXIMUM IN QPF. ONE OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN
GET INVOLVED. THOSE ARE THE TWO AREAS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ005>007-013>024.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-
016-019>024.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ005>007-
013>021.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ002-008-009.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>008.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1154 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW
NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SANDERSVILLE LINE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUGGEST THE FRONT STILL HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO CONTINUE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAP AND LAP DATA SHOW THE GREATER
INSTABILITIES NOW SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON... WITH 800-1200 CAPE
NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT BENNING TO PERRY TO DUBLIN LINE... AND
THIS AREA IS WHERE REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS STILL
DEVELOPING. THINKING THIS AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT EVEN THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE FRONT.
SUSPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAYBE
NEAR OR SOUTH OF A CORDELE TO SWAINSBORO LINE. WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THIS AREA FOR NOW... AND MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT TERM ON TAP BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL
SINK INTO CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COLUMBUS AND
MACON AREAS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNRISE. DRY...COOLER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRINGING A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE HEAT OF THE LAST WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE
MINIMAL...AND ONLY ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THIS DRY
AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT LIBERAL FOR
THE ACTIVITY TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE ACTIVE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE STATE WILL WARM SLIGHTLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ENJOY TODAY!
31
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...OTHERWISE THEY
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SHORT WAVE...BUT BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT NORTH GEORGIA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH EACH
WAVE. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHER
POPS NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY LATE MORNING.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 63 90 68 / 5 0 5 10
ATLANTA 84 67 88 71 / 10 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 56 82 65 / 5 5 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 84 60 89 68 / 5 5 5 20
COLUMBUS 87 68 91 72 / 20 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 84 64 87 69 / 5 5 5 20
MACON 88 66 91 68 / 40 5 5 5
ROME 85 60 89 69 / 5 5 10 20
PEACHTREE CITY 85 63 89 66 / 10 0 5 10
VIDALIA 89 70 91 71 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AT 07Z STILL BACK IN THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH GEORGIA. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS OR
COASTAL PLAIN. RADAR INDICATING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CSRA. HRRR SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING..MAY ENHANCE
SHOWERS BUT OVERALL LIFT APPEARS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH FOCUS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN AND MID LEVEL CAPPING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOS GUIDANCE MEAN TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED...TEMPERATURES WARMER
DURING THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AT NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...90 TO 95 THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN LIGHT
SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
AGS/DNL WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
OVERTAKING THE TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 29/00Z...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
954 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING FROM BOISE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL/.
THIS IS LINE WITH THE FORECAST RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS /PW
0.89 INCHES THIS MORNING/ AND ALREADY SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S-CENTRAL AND FAR SE OREGON THIS MORNING. SEE
NO CHANGE IN WHERE THE HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...
WHICH WILL FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SPEEDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OUTFLOW
WINDS COULD BLOW INTO LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT
GUSTS TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST 10-20KT AROUND 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RECORD HEAT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 110 IN PARTS OF
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. MOST OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS SITES WILL
ACHIEVE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT. MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN
MONSOON-LIKE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...MAINLY IMPACTING SE OREGON
BUT ALSO SW IDAHO. MUCH LIKE YDAY...THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
PREVENT RECORD HIGHS FROM BEING SET IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
OR MOVE IN TO PREVENT THE RECORD HEAT. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...THROUGH 9 PM MDT TONIGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SCATTERED STORMS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...BUT WE DO NOT AGREE WITH ITS
SOLUTION. THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF HARNEY COUNTY IN THE
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. FINALLY...THE HRRR OUTPUT
INDICATES STRONG WINDS MOVING NORTH FROM NEAR THE NV BORDER DUE TO
STORM OUTFLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE BELIEVE THE COVERAGE
INDICATED BY THE HRRR IS OVERDONE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA AS OF 3
AM MDT...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGS SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD-SETTING HEAT. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY INTO OUR NRN ZONES
IN BOTH OREGON AND IDAHO...WITH BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MTNS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. THESE STORMS COULD AGAIN BRING GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES LESS HOT TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IDAHO
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NV/UT KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH SOLUTIONS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN EACH RUN. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST WITH A DRIER AND WARMER BIAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING ORZ064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING ORZ636-646.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
724 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.
AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OR ENDING AFTER 05Z/29. SOUTH WINDS TODAY
THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE... EC MODEL THIS AFTERNOON HAS TIPPED OFF WHAT
SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND HRRR ARE MASKING WITH DRY
SURFACE LAYERS. 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS HIDDEN UNDER A 600-700 MB LAYER OF CAP. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COMING DOWN AND TRIGGERING SHOWERS. ONE DOES EXIST IN
SEVERAL MODELS BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS USUAL IS IMPRECISE FOR
THE MINOR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... IN
ADDITION THE DRY SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY CHEW THROUGH
ANY NEW RAIN AND GENERATE MORE VIRGA THAT DROPS ON SURFACE. HENCE
SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING AT ALL. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY HOT DESERT AIR CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION PERSISTS AGAIN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. THUS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. 1000MB-500MB THICKNESS HEIGHTS TODAY WILL
INCREASE OVER THOSE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN EASILY REACH INTO THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE TEMPERATURES MIGHT ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS NOTES A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW THAT WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT.
THE NAM STAYS DRY. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE
FOR NOW.
THERE WILL BE A CHANGE COMING MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH
HAS REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST TO THE VICINITY OF THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THIS SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL DESTABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST A STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING CONDITIONS ON FORT PECK
LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH A SLIGHT
DROP FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SCT
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
STAYS TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NE MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
LACKING MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALSO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL BE BROUGHT BACK
EAST SO THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER IT WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
OR STRONG COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONTANA
WITH A WEAK WAVES CROSSING EXTREME NE MONTANA AND NW ND. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP TODAY WITH SOME VIRGA IN
THE AREAS EAST/NORTH OF KOLF AND KSDY...BUT SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL NOCTURNAL KGGW EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WHICH WOULD PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY PASS WEST AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. VFR
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 93 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 93 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 89 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 95 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 95 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 91 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
316 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL DAMPEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR MOST AREAS. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK FOR HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD.
MUCH OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON HAD CLEAR SKIES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO COOL MORE QUICKLY THAN THEY
DID FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN EARLY THIS
MORNING SLOWING THE COOLING...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY MAY STILL BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS BRUSHING BY
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THIS WAVE AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE WHEN SOLAR HEATING INCREASES THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON FOR AFTER SUNRISE.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER NW OREGON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA PROVIDING GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT SOME AREAS OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL GET A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
500MB HEIGHTS LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS NW
OREGON...AND MODELED 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECASTED TO BE 8C COOLER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS PREVIOUS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACHING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST INLAND TEMPERATURES PEAKING BELOW 90F.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A TAD WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS ALLOWING
SOME MARINE AIR TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNINGS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 90F. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES.
THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF IT JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WAVE SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 90 ON TUESDAY. THE
INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL END TUESDAY AS WELL
AS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE 90
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID 90S. TJ
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING HOT AND
DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND...AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
COOL OFF MUCH EITHER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LESS LESS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
27/TJ
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST WITH CIGS GENERALLY BELOW 500 FEET BUT POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 1000
FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z SUN. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF TAF AND LEAVE IT TO SHORTER TERM UPDATES
AS NECESSARY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH SUN WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. MAY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ANYTIME...OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUN. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED PRIMARILY OVER THE NEAR SHORE
ZONES THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 21 KT. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWED THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EASING LATER THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURGE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER MODELS
ARE SIMILAR AS WELL. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH ABOUT TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
SETS UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.
OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUN
EVENING.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONE 601-ZONE
602-ZONE 603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608-
ZONE 612.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONE 601-ZONE
602-ZONE 604-ZONE 660.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEAR THE
CASCADES TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS A WEAK MARINE
PUSH STARTS TO BRING COOLER AIR THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS, JOHN DAY VALLEY, GRAND RONDE VALLEY,
AND WALLOWA COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO GRANT COUNTY.
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST LATE TODAY, THEN MOVE INLAND
MONDAY AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS
A STRONGER MARINE PUSH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY KEEPING A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY. SINKING AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 90S AND
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULONIMBUS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INVOF KBDN AND
KRDM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
REACH KPDT AND KALW. WINDS COULD EXCEED 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 108 72 97 64 / 30 30 20 10
ALW 108 78 98 70 / 20 20 20 10
PSC 110 78 102 67 / 20 20 20 10
YKM 105 76 97 64 / 20 20 10 10
HRI 109 77 100 66 / 20 20 20 10
ELN 107 75 95 63 / 30 30 10 10
RDM 97 61 93 54 / 30 30 10 10
LGD 103 71 92 58 / 30 30 20 20
GCD 106 65 96 55 / 30 30 20 20
DLS 101 75 97 66 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ639.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ641-642-644.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-049-050-
505-507.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-640.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WAZ639-681.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
WAZ675.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH EPISODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE NW PLATEAU...ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS. WLY FLOW IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE...RANGING
FROM AROUND 60F IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LWR SQV.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SE.
ONLY FLOOD PRODUCT IN EFFECT IS FLW FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT
SHIRLEYSBURG. THERE ARE 5 ADDITIONAL POINTS ABOVE CAUTION STAGE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AND DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...THEN EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL REINFORCE A DEVELOPING LONG-
WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF TUESDAY/D3. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL DIG INTO
IL/IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 00Z TUE.
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TSTM RISK FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL PA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BUT STILL AVG A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 ---
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED WILL MIGRATE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH...PROMOTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL CHANNELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TRYING TO PICK A DAY OR
PERIOD WITH `BETTER` ODDS FOR RAIN GIVEN THE EPISODIC NATURE OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AM...MAINLY IN LOW CIGS AND FOG. UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS MOST AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS IS POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST WED-
THU...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLW CONTINUES FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST
CREST OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS BEING MONITORED
ABOVE CS INCLUDE: CONFLUENCE...WILLIAMSBURG...SPRUCE CREEK...BEECH
CREEK STATION AND HOGESTOWN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS BARELY DISTINGUISHABLE
THIS MORNING PER MSAS OR LAPS AND IS PROGD TO WASHOUT COMPLETELY
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BEGIN DVLPG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z CRP
SOUNDING INDICATED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS SCENARIO
AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALI/VCT WITH VSBYS REDUCED
TO MVFR LEVELS. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MOVING INLAND. RETAINED VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA REMARKS FOR NOW BUT
REFINEMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TRENDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD THEN WANE AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS RECENTLY
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...BUT HI
RES MODELS SHIFT THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
FORMING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MAY APPROACH THE MARINE ZONES AND
COASTAL BEND LATER THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY THOUGH DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OUT WEST TO
LOWER 90S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLEOP.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGH
MOISTURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION (PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-
2.0 INCHES) AND WEAKNESS ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK. MODELS A BIT
SLOWER WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECT
GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 77 91 78 90 / 30 20 20 20 40
VICTORIA 89 75 90 75 89 / 40 20 30 20 40
LAREDO 95 76 97 76 95 / 20 20 10 10 30
ALICE 93 75 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 89 79 88 80 87 / 40 30 20 20 40
COTULLA 93 74 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 77 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 88 79 88 80 88 / 30 20 20 20 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE VCSH AT KAUS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHRA IN THE VCNTY...THEN ALL TAF SITES FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN SHRA/TSRA ARE AT GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO GO WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND/OR TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RISE AGAIN TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. VRBL
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS BECOME S TO SE 5 TO 10 KTS MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH MOST
ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS TRYING TO HINT
AT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH HAS COME TO FRUITION AS OF
YET. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT FOR HEATING
TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST HIGH-
RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WAS PRIMARILY ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING. CAPE VALUES
ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE VALUES DROP OFF A BIT FURTHER MONDAY AND THE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF AS WELL. WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE WILL
BE COL AT 500 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS
COL CREATES DEFORMATIONAL FLOW STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NW AND SE TROUGHS TO THE SW AND NE AND THIS
IS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SUMMER SEASON. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE COL IS EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE NE TROUGH DEEPENS. STILL
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS 25 KNOT
850 FLOW LEADS TO WEAK ASCENT AND POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 90 72 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 89 / 50 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 88 / 50 20 30 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 73 90 73 89 / 50 20 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW
NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SANDERSVILLE LINE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUGGEST THE FRONT STILL HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO CONTINUE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAP AND LAP DATA SHOW THE GREATER
INSTABILITIES NOW SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON... WITH 800-1200 CAPE
NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT BENNING TO PERRY TO DUBLIN LINE... AND
THIS AREA IS WHERE REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS STILL
DEVELOPING. THINKING THIS AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT EVEN THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE FRONT.
SUSPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAYBE
NEAR OR SOUTH OF A CORDELE TO SWAINSBORO LINE. WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THIS AREA FOR NOW... AND MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT TERM ON TAP BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD
FRONT ACTIVITY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL
SINK INTO CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COLUMBUS AND
MACON AREAS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNRISE. DRY...COOLER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRINGING A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE HEAT OF THE LAST WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE
MINIMAL...AND ONLY ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THIS DRY
AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT LIBERAL FOR
THE ACTIVITY TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE ACTIVE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE STATE WILL WARM SLIGHTLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ENJOY TODAY!
31
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...OTHERWISE THEY
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SHORT WAVE...BUT BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT NORTH GEORGIA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH EACH
WAVE. HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHER
POPS NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY NW TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL... WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8-10KTS WITH OCNL LOW
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING TO 3-5KTS THIS EVENING... THEN 7-
9KTS ON MON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 63 90 68 / 5 0 5 10
ATLANTA 84 67 88 71 / 10 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 56 82 65 / 5 5 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 84 60 89 68 / 5 5 5 20
COLUMBUS 87 68 91 72 / 20 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 84 64 87 69 / 5 5 5 20
MACON 88 66 91 68 / 40 5 5 5
ROME 85 60 89 69 / 5 5 10 20
PEACHTREE CITY 85 63 89 66 / 10 0 5 10
VIDALIA 89 70 91 71 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE
REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000
TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z.
SFC CONVERGENCE IS RATHER MEAGER ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES JUST
REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE SVR WORDING IN SOUTHEAST/EAST ZONES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THROUGH 00Z. LCL HEIGHTS
EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS
INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY STORMS FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF FUNNEL. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01-02Z. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. 4KM WRF ALSO SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MN MAY EXPAND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS
WELL. WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE CEDAR RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
MORNING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. IOWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND LESSENING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN
SO...THINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
SUCH OPPORTUNITY COME LATE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTLE IMPULSE PUSHES AN
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA DOWN ACROSS IOWA.
DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BROAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES...FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED DETAILS IN TIMING OF POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
EVEN AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILT
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY...BUT EVEN SO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED THOUGH NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...THE
STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE WEEK WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND A MODEST
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THE GREATEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES SO POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS UP AND WE CAN REFINE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN THEN
POPS FOR PART OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS
WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT IN WAKE OF THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH
PASSAGE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW...PROVIDING
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SUNNY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER RIGHT AROUND
THE FOURTH OF JULY. OBVIOUSLY ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO GOOD WEATHER AROUND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WEAK LOW NEAR KDSM AT 17Z AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR KFRM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKING
NEARLY DUE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...THOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH SFC TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG I35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS INCREASING. SCT THUNDER SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM I35 EAST...NEAR TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL VORT AND SFC
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE IN QUESTION SO HAVE GENERALLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR
NOW...BY 15Z MONDAY MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL -SHRA OVER THE EAST
AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE HOLDS. LOW SPOTS NEAR 11Z MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHY 3-5SM BR AS WELL WITH MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER.
/REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ELSEWHERE...WITH NOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON
RADAR AND SOME SPOTTER REPORTS...THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE THE CEDAR RAPIDS
AREA AND ALSO OVER FAR SE IA AND NE MO. AT NOON...MSAS PRESSURE
FIELDS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IA WITH PRESSURE FALLS
OVER S CENTRAL INTO SE IA...INDICATING CONTINUED SE PROPAGATION AS
SUGGESTED BY 12Z MODELS.
WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE LOW/S
TRACK IN CENTRAL IA INTO N CENTRAL MO AND THE OVERLAPPING AXIS OF
BETTER SHEAR MOVING INTO THE SAME AREA...THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...THE ELEVATED STORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL MO WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A LIGHTNING RISK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
PROGRESSIVE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS AND LOWERED
MAXES SOME DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.
AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT CID AND
BRL...AND PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT MLI AND BRL. WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR IF NOT IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE TRENDS...BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PERIODS OF IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH EXIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST WHILE A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA RESIDE WEDGED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... EC MODEL THIS AFTERNOON
HAS TIPPED OFF WHAT SEVERAL OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR ARE MASKING IN THEIR SURFACE QPF FIELDS WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYERS. 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS SETTING ABOVE A 600-700 MB LAYER OF CAP. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND TRIGGERING SHOWERS. ONE DOES EXIST IN SEVERAL MODELS BUT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS IMPRECISE FOR THE MINOR MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... IN ADDITION THE DRY
SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY CHEW THROUGH ANY NEW RAIN AND
GENERATE MORE VIRGA THAT DROPS ON SURFACE. HENCE SPRINKLES IF
ANYTHING AT ALL.
MONDAY... RIDGE TOP WILL TRANSITION FROM IDAHO TO MONTANA FURTHER
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH A FEW
100S POSSIBLE IN THE MISSOURI BREAKS. SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND TOPPLES OVER INTO WYOMING A SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AXIS AND PUMPING IN COOL AIR
ALOFT AND GENERATING A MOIST GULF INFLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. AT THIS TIME ONLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS RE ANTICIPATED... BUT THIS COULD RAPIDLY CHANGE AS
NEW DATA IS INGESTED INTO UPPER AIR FOR THE MODELS. GAH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. JUST A FEW TWEAKS FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES. SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN
INVERTED TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP.
THE ONE ITEM NOT ADDRESSED IS THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME SORT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT RIGHT NOW
THINGS ARE NOT REALLY INDICATING THAT FOR THE FROPA ON SATURDAY
EVENING. THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...IT WOULDN`T SUPRISE
ME IF WE POPPED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BREEZY
WINDS IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. FRANSEN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
STAYS TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NE MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
LACKING MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ALSO...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL BE BROUGHT BACK
EAST SO THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER IT WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
OR STRONG COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONTANA
WITH A WEAK WAVES CROSSING EXTREME NE MONTANA AND NW ND. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP TODAY WITH SOME VIRGA IN
THE AREAS EAST/NORTH OF KOLF AND KSDY...BUT SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL NOCTURNAL KGGW EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...BUT
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES SEWD OUT OF SD. OTHERWISE THE
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PV ANOMALY
MOVING SWD OUT OF SD GENERATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BUT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CLOUDS MUCH BELOW
12K FT. GUSTY WIND BUT AOB 25 KTS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
257 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH. THE
RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA...AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALLOWING A MOIST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
GENERATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD
COVER HAS HAMPERED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE SIERRA AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE WEST. THIS MOVEMENT AND OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS TO REACH THE
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
A WEAK WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.
ON MONDAY...WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TERRAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
UNDER THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND
UTAH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID. MEANWHILE...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 108-113 RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS AND I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WILL PUSH OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND TOWARD LAKE MEAD
DURING THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN DROPPING OFF AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KLAS ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE
FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND
IN MOHAVE COUNTRY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. SIMILAR CIGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
CZYZYK/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV 252 AM
930 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
FROM UTAH TOWARD NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP THROUGH
SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL. I EXPECT SOME
CLEARING DURING THE DAY...ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES THAT WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE WEST
AND INTO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN LAST EVENING.
IN MOST LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS EXPECTED. THE
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AND
AN INCREASE IN POPS...PARTICULARLY PRIOR TO 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 252 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE ARE IN A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT THIS MORNING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE COAST. WITH THE JET PUSHING NORTH HELPING TO LIFT
THIS MOISTURE, WHICH IS MAINLY IN THE HIGH AND MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS THIN A BIT AT
TIMES, HOWEVER, LOOKING AT MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 700
MB AND ABOVE LAYERS, IT DOES NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH OF A DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TODAY WITH THE MOST SUN IN EASTERN SECTIONS CLOSER
TO THE RIDGE CENTER WHERE THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP IN SQUASHING SOME OF THE CLOUDS THAT TRY TO GET
GOING. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY, TEMPS WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS YESTERDAY IN THE WESTERN CWFA AND HIGHS WERE LOWERED A
LITTLE HERE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES ABOVE
NORMAL IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS HERE TODAY AGAIN WILL SEE 100-105.
CONVECTION GOT GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA YESTERDAY AND PROPAGATED FAR ENOUGH WEST ACROSS THE STATE TO
PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. SOME RETURNS
WERE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HERE FOR MUCH TO THE
REACH THE GROUND INITIALLY. HOWEVER, AS THE REMAINS OF WHATEVER
CONVECTION THAT FORMED OFF TO THE EAST YESTERDAY DRIFTS WEST IT MAY
HELP TO JUICE THESE AREAS UP A LITTLE MORE AND THUS BASED ON THE
HRRR AND WRF, I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING.
WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, I
HAVE SOME DOUBTS WE MAY SEE THAT MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP, HOWEVER,
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE 00Z RUN INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WITH THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AND JET
NEARBY, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THESE HELPING TO TRIGGER SOMETHING,
SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FURTHER EAST, MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE LOCAL ARW AND NMM
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING AND KEEP LI`S IN
THE POSITIVE RANGE. WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HERE, BUT ACTIVITY MAY WAIT UNTIL LATER UNTIL THINGS
GET GOING OUT ON THE RIM AND WORK WEST.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE LIFTS
NORTH TONIGHT AND PASSES OUT OF NORCAL ON MONDAY. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH. THE GFS FORECAST PWATS TO PEAK
ON MONDAY, PUSHING THEM BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCH ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT THEN DECREASES THEM SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS
ALSO SHOW BROAD INSTABILITY ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY SHOW THINGS A BIT MORE STABLE. POPS WERE KEPT
AS IS FOR NOW AS WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SOME SORT OF WEAK FEATURE MAY GET SENT UP TOWARD OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POPS ON TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RISING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS
THE AREA DRIES OUT A LITTLE.
THE PRIMARY THREATS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES OR RISES IN WASHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF ANY GOOD AREAS GET GENERATED OFF TO OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CENTERING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA OVER THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE UNDER
THE RIDGE...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AIR OVER IDAHO AND UTAH
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE SOLID.
MEANWHILE...THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
110-113 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER
REGION. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS TREND BETTER THAN THE GFS
AND I ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A CHANCE OF TSRA OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
SCT120 IN THE VICINITY OF KLAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH WINDS AGAIN
DROPPING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CHANCES OF
TSRA WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER 20Z WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BASED ON AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION..STACHELSKI LONG TERM...ADAIR
FIRE WEATHER...STACHELSKI/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 93 71 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 93 67 97 69 / 0 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 95 72 / 0 10 20 20
GAGE OK 93 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 68 94 70 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 89 69 93 70 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/10/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY FOR MUCH
OF THE DISTRICT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD. FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS DECREASING THE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR MASS...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...BUT THEY HAVE ONLY PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE
LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS OPENING UP AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N-NE THROUGH MONDAY. A
FAIRLY STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TOWARD 1.50 INCH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ALOFT...SEEMING TO NEED SOME SORT OF ATMOSPHERIC TRIGGER TO
SET OFF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING...SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN ABSENT
SINCE THE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTED INTO WRN WA EARLIER TODAY. CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO MITIGATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION THUS FAR.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRONG JUNE SUN CONTINUES TO HEAT THE SURFACE DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES IN THE CASCADES ARE NEARING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SFC-BASED
STORMS FIRE SOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER WILL ALSO COME IN THE FORM
OF A 70-90 KT SOUTHERLY JET PUSHES INTO WRN OREGON FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR
THE CASCADES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY
STARTING OFF AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION. A COUPLE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED THUNDER AS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED JET MOVES THROUGH WRN OREGON. EITHER ROUND MAY OR MAY
NOT OCCUR...SO DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND NOT TRY TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ON TIMING. WENT WITH SCATTERED THUNDER TONIGHT LIFTING N-NE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO WA EARLY MON.
THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER MONDAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
MONDAY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF +18 DEG C TEMPS WILL STILL
APPROACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...THE SAME ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RECENT HEAT...WILL REBUILD ANOTHER RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW MIDWEEK.
ODDS ARE GOOD THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF 90S INLAND
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE 590S AND 850 MB TEMPS PUSH WELL ABOVE
20 DEG C WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH NO COOLDOWN IN SIGHT...IT APPEARS TO BE A LOCK FOR MULTIPLE
INLAND LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO BREAK THEIR ALL-TIME RECORDS
FOR THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO BRING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSITION
US TO MORE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT LESS HOT NEXT
WEEKEND...LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER EAST OF OUR AREA WHICH WILL KEEP US
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. -MCCOY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW IS ROTATING A SWATH OF DRIER
AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE OREGON
BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THAT BOUNDARY OF MOIST AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BECOME ORIENTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL FEEL LIKE WE
ARE WALKING A FINE LINE BETWEEN LAL 2 AND LAL 3 STRIKE COUNTS AND
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
DESPITE THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE. COULD GET ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS WEST BUT DONT FEEL THERE WILL BE THE SAME DEGREE OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
ON MONDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH CASCADES BUT WILL NEED TO
GET HEATING AND MOISTURE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS WILL FINALLY STABILIZE SOMEWHAT AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES SOME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO KEEPING ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE ZONES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SO. THE VERY
WARM...DRY...AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK
SHOULD HELP ANY HOLDOVERS MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CASCADES WHERE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN WITH GREATER INTENSITY OVER TIME.
WEAGLE/JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TSTMS. CIGS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7K FT.
NO MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH THUNDER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE CASCADES LATER THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO S OF KONP WILL SPREAD N
ALONG COAST THIS EVENING...AND CIGS SLOWLY RISING TO LOW MVFR
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF CIGS 2500 TO 3500 FT SPREAD INLAND
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON AM...BUT SEEMS BEST THREAT S OF KSLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. MAY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ANYTIME...OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. BUT BY 06Z...THUNDER THREAT WILL LIKELY
TO BE ONLY OVER CASCADES. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH LIGHT S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NW LATER MON.
WESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 4 FT CONTINUES. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE RETURN OF GUSTY N WINDS AS TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SW OREGON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING FOR THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING FOR S WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
240 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL EXTEND THE
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF OUR BASIN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS EXTENSION IS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF EXPECTED VERY WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
THE HOT, UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT ANY LOCATION WITHIN OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR
AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE AREA. ON MONDAY THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
OVER OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BASIN WHERE TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE PACNW ON TUESDAY, THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL, BUT NOT AS WARM THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NEVADA. 90
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE AREAS WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS SOMEWHAT EAST NEXT WEEKEND IT WILL RETAIN A FIRM GRIP ON OUR
AREAS WEATHER AS AFTN HIGH TEMPS REMAIN HOT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN OR NEAR TAF SITES KRDM AND KBDN BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z WHICH
COULD APPROACH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE BREEZY WEST WINDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE GORGE AND EFFECT TAF SITES KDLS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS. HOWEVER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALL ZONES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS...THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE
OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THE DEEPEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON WHERE A LAL OF 4 IS EXPECTED. AREAS EAST
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF MOUNT ADAMS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL OREGON
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING.
DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS PATH...I
EXTENDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN
ZONES. THOSE BATTLING THE SOUTHEAST BENTON COMPLEX FIRE SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. POST
FRONTAL WINDS THIS EVENING AND ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA (20-30 MPH IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY). ANY NEW FIRE STARTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD AS WINDS INCREASE. WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 72 98 66 97 / 40 20 10 0
ALW 78 99 71 98 / 30 20 10 0
PSC 76 103 66 101 / 30 20 10 0
YKM 77 97 66 97 / 30 20 10 0
HRI 75 101 64 100 / 40 20 10 0
ELN 74 94 65 96 / 30 20 10 0
RDM 61 94 54 95 / 50 10 10 10
LGD 68 93 58 92 / 30 30 20 10
GCD 63 96 56 97 / 30 20 20 10
DLS 73 96 66 98 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-639-
640.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ641-642-644.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-505.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ643-645.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ044-507.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-681.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ643-645.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ641-675.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ026>029.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/97/97/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND WE DO
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET SHOULD
SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION. S/SE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AND GUSTY NEAR OR IN CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. I-35
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-09Z WITH KDRT AROUND
12Z.BY 16Z-17Z CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND RETURN BACK TO VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. S/SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE VCSH AT KAUS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHRA IN THE VCNTY...THEN ALL TAF SITES FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN SHRA/TSRA ARE AT GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO GO WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND/OR TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RISE AGAIN TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. VRBL
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS BECOME S TO SE 5 TO 10 KTS MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ALL IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH MOST
ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS TRYING TO HINT
AT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH HAS COME TO FRUITION AS OF
YET. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT FOR HEATING
TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST HIGH-
RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WAS PRIMARILY ADVISORY TYPE FLOODING. CAPE VALUES
ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS WELL.
MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE VALUES DROP OFF A BIT FURTHER MONDAY AND THE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF AS WELL. WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST. ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST AS WELL WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES REMAINING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE WILL
BE COL AT 500 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS
COL CREATES DEFORMATIONAL FLOW STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NW AND SE TROUGHS TO THE SW AND NE AND THIS
IS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE SUMMER SEASON. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE COL IS EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE NE TROUGH DEEPENS. STILL
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS 25 KNOT
850 FLOW LEADS TO WEAK ASCENT AND POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ASCENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 90 72 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 50 20 30 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 89 / 50 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 40 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 71 89 / 30 20 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 88 / 50 20 30 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 73 90 73 89 / 50 20 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 89 / 40 20 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOL/SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF WITH
MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE...THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY
ALI TO VCT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS BARELY DISTINGUISHABLE
THIS MORNING PER MSAS OR LAPS AND IS PROGD TO WASHOUT COMPLETELY
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BEGIN DVLPG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z CRP
SOUNDING INDICATED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS SCENARIO
AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALI/VCT WITH VSBYS REDUCED
TO MVFR LEVELS. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MOVING INLAND. RETAINED VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA REMARKS FOR NOW BUT
REFINEMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TRENDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD THEN WANE AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS RECENTLY
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...BUT HI
RES MODELS SHIFT THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
FORMING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MAY APPROACH THE MARINE ZONES AND
COASTAL BEND LATER THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY THOUGH DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OUT WEST TO
LOWER 90S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLEOP.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGH
MOISTURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION (PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-
2.0 INCHES) AND WEAKNESS ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK. MODELS A BIT
SLOWER WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECT
GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 77 91 78 90 / 30 20 20 20 40
VICTORIA 89 75 90 75 89 / 40 20 30 20 40
LAREDO 95 76 97 76 95 / 20 20 10 10 30
ALICE 93 75 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 89 79 88 80 87 / 40 30 20 20 40
COTULLA 93 74 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 77 92 / 30 20 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 88 79 88 80 88 / 30 20 20 20 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)