Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/27/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS BEGIN TO POP IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO... HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...DO HAVE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HRRR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD FIRE AS FAR NORTH AS
LITTLE ROCK...BUT DO HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE
RAIN. AS A RESULT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND HELP TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY. 12Z WRF
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z
ON FRIDAY. DO THINK THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...BUT BELIEVE THE WRF IS MUCH TOO QUICK. THEREFORE JUST KEPT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL NOT BE
OUTRAGEOUS...BUT DO EXPECT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY WITH DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE SHORT TERM ENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. INITIALLY...BEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT DO THINK SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
EXIST FURTHER SOUTH BY LATE MON INTO TUE WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT.
SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR TUE AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM JUST BELOW
NORMAL...TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE...AND AR IN GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 75 89 64 82 / 10 60 70 10
CAMDEN AR 75 93 74 86 / 20 30 70 30
HARRISON AR 73 86 61 83 / 20 60 70 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 91 73 85 / 10 30 60 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 94 70 85 / 10 30 60 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 93 73 85 / 20 30 70 40
MOUNT IDA AR 73 90 69 84 / 10 30 60 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 87 63 83 / 20 70 70 10
NEWPORT AR 76 90 65 82 / 10 60 70 10
PINE BLUFF AR 75 93 71 84 / 20 30 60 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 91 67 86 / 10 50 70 10
SEARCY AR 74 93 67 84 / 10 50 70 10
STUTTGART AR 75 94 69 84 / 10 30 60 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.AVIATION...25/06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU THE FCST PD. SFC WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FM
THE S/SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP AROUND THE STATE TODAY
WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.
HAVE ALREADY BEGAN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED POPS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH HRRR AND WRF AGREE POP UP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ARKNASAS...HOWEVER DO
BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
RIVER AND THUS JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT AND HUMID ON THURSDAY...SO A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES
TO THE WEST AND NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING
IN CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DO BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID DAY ON
SATURDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS A
RESULT...DID BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AND REMOVE
THEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR COOLER AND DRY AIR
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER AIR PATTERNS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE WELL AMPLIFIED AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A 2 SIGMA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A 2 SIGMA TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED A THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER...AS
THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
847 AM MST THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL
GENERATE STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING STORMS
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS PER THE LATEST 12Z KTWC SOUNDING/REGIONAL GPS
DATA WITH PWAT VALUES AVERAGING ABOUT 1.3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING IS ALSO DEPICTING FAVORABLE
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z UOFA WRF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTY...PERHAPS AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SONORA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WHITE AND THE
GILA MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THAT PUSH TO THE WEST AS WELL DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
EVENT TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF ADVANCE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR OUR
HIGHER RISK DUST CORRIDORS IN PINAL/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DUST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
TODAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT WITH QUICKER STORM MOTIONS THAT
WILL KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS IN CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
UPDATES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
OVC CLOUD DECK ABV 10K FT AGL WEST OF KTUS WILL BE CLEARING THRU
25/17Z. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS DEVELOPING BY
25/19Z BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND MOVING WNW THRU 26/03Z. SOME TSRA
COULD HAVE GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SE WINDS BECOMING
NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SE AZ. FRIDAY MAY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY BUT THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ON
THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO DISTANT STORMS. MORE HUMID AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING TO MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... THINGS ARE QUIETING DOWN THIS HOUR...AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER GILA COUNTY HAVE
PRETTY MUCH ALL DISSIPATED. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WERE
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND A BIT OF BLOWING DUST...MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY AS OUTFLOWS FROM THEM WORKED THEIR WAY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER PHX AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE A LESS ACTIVE DAY THEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AS THE
INVERTED TROF THAT HELPED TO TRIGGER TODAY/S ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY... CONVECTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PANNED OUT QUITE NICELY COMPARED TO HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS WITH MAIN EMPHASIS AREA...AS OF THIS WRITING...OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EXPANDING WESTWARD. A SMALLER AREA DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PINAL AND FAR NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES. LOWER LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE EAST STALLED OUT OVER GILA/EASTERN
PINAL/NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES...BARELY MAKING IT INTO FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO. THE LACK OF MOIST ADVECTION FURTHER
WEST ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOIST
ADVECTION...THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STILL VERY LARGE. THIS
BODES WELL FOR STORMS THAT WILL BE POTENT WIND PRODUCERS BUT WITH
MEAGER RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. STORMS NOT
LIKELY TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SUCH MEAGER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...JUST WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF DUST...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTH AND EASTERN FRINGES OF
PHOENIX METRO. NOT LOOKING FOR THE GIANT WALL OF DUST TODAY BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY FOR PINAL COUNTY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LEADING TO EVER SO SLIGHT LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL WITH STORMS NOT VERY LIKELY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY BEGINS SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RICH MOISTURE SURFACE WORKS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST. SFC DEWPOINTS PUSHING SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S AND PWATS
START TO HEAD TOWARDS THE 1.25 INCH MARK...WHICH PUSH INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE SEASONAL MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE PHX AREA. POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FORECAST AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED DEWPOINT SFCS AND
NIGHTLY DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL WORK TO NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WARM MORNING STARTS BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS
INTO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST REGIME BY THE WEEKEND...WHERE
BROADBRUSH POPS REIGN AND ONE DAY`S FORECAST MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT`S ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... TYPICAL
EASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING TO TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BREEZES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY PUSH SOME SORT OF EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KIWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED
AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK BEFORE STORM CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WETTING RAINS TENDING
TO BE LOCALIZED. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LARIMER COUNTY AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER OUT WYOMING. A LONG LIVED
MCS....MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
WYOMING AND INTO NEBRASKA ALL DAY....AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HELP KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE HELPING CAPES REACH IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
AND UPWARDS OF 3000 NEAR THE WY/NE BORDER. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 35 KTS TO NEAR 50 KTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. THESE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMBINING TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. BEST AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY
TO LIMON. HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM STORMS...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE OTHER STORM FURTHER WEST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
URBAN CORRIDOR FOR THIS REASON. ACTIVITY UP NEAR CHEYENNE HAS
BEEN PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TO BECOME THE LONG
ADVERTISED POSSIBLE MCS SYSTEM TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS TO BRING STRATUS AND
SOME FOG OVER THE PLAINS OVER NIGHT. SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLING TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED OVER THE PLAINS UNDER WHAT STRATUS FORMS.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK IN ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE STABLE
STRATUS DECK FIRST...THEN SOME MAY PUSH EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY MORE...THIS MAY
LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE MAIN MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD. THIS PUTS OUR AREA UNDER A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DISCERNIBLE QG
DYNAMICS AFFECTING OUR WEATHER. THIS ALSO KEEPS THE PLAINS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO OCCASIONAL OUTFLOWS AND FRONTAL SURGES FROM
CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE USUAL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE GOING. NWP BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTING SEASONAL VALUES BUT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH WARMER VALUES. WE SHALL SEE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
SWITCH THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AIRPORTS TO A
NORTHERLY PUSH. ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN
THE 01-03Z TIMEFRAME WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NELY WINDS FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ELY BY 03Z. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
FROM OTHER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY STILL SEND BACK
OUTFLOW THAT WILL HELP FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO FOLLOW PROGRESSION OF STORMS AND MODELS TO SEE IF THIS SHOULD
BE ADDED INTO THE TAFS. WILL SEE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IF STRONGER STORMS AFFECT THE AIRPORTS.
EXPECTING STRATUS/FOG TO PUSH IN OVER THE AREA AFTER 09Z. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 09-15Z...THEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY LAST
THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
STORMS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER...WITH A
RELATIVELY WET AIRMASS...COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IF STORMS FIRE IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS...COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN
CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING WET AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 101 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND N-CNTRL VT. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST HAVE HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BTWN 18Z-21Z /2-5
PM/...AND THEN THEY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
21Z-00Z/ 5-8PM/. THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTH MAYBE DELAYED A BIT AS WE
AWAIT FOR THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY TO
BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE POPS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHED ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
OVERNIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS
SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR PORTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
AS THE UPPER WAVE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION SO PT-MOCLDY CONDITIONS FOR THE TERRAIN WITH
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A TRANQUIL END OF
THE DAY. AS THE H850 TEMPS WILL BE BELOW +10C...HIGHS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT COOLER YET YIELD MID 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
MID-UPR 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A
REGION OF INCREASING CONFLUENCE ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
A PTCLDY-MOCLR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND. SO A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY...STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NOVA SCOTIA/NEWFOUNDLAND AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
PHASE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC/FGEN ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN
INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A HIGH ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET />40KTS/ OFF THE ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH HIGHER
PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION /UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS INTO THE CATSKILLS AND COINCIDING DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING
MESOSCALE EFFECTS/.
PER THE EXCELLENT MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION WRITTEN THIS MORNING
FROM WPC...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MAKE FOR A REASONABLE MIDDLE
GROUND...AND SHOW A 2-2.5 SIGMA EVENT FOR LATE JUNE NEAR OH/WV/PA
BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO JUNE 26 1972 (LATE DURING
AGNES` DECAY) BUT OFFSET TO THE WEST. A RARE LATE JUNE WEDGE
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY AS THERE IS AN IN SITU 1020+ HPA HIGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION. A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
FURTHERMORE...WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WOULD NEED TO MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR SATURDAY
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND APPROACHING RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SAT NT-SUN.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR LATE JUNE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ENHANCING
RAIN/SHOWER THREATS. THE LEAD SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE RAIN FOR SAT
NT-SUN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY GIVEN A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE PULLING
NORTHWARD...INCREASING PWAT/S TO 1.75-2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THIS
LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DURATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONFINED TO SAT NT/SUN AM...WHEN THE BEST SURGE OF
WARM ADVECTION/DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS. ASSUMING THIS TIMING
UNFOLDS...THEN A STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY SAT NT INTO SUN AM...BEFORE TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMTS OF
1-2 INCHES APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMTS WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL LATER SUN
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER BREAK COULD OCCUR LATE
WED INTO THU.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BEING MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IF THIS
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR S AND W THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS ONLY REACH THE 60S FOR MAXES...WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY CAN MOVE THROUGH
A BIT QUICKER BEFORE DAY/S END...WARMER MAXES IN THE 70S COULD
OCCUR. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME 70S ARE
INDICATED...AS THIS AREA WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH BEFORE SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL VARY DEPENDING ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY 70S FOR MAXES...AND 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS...IT MAY
BE A BIT HUMID AT TIMES...ESP TUE/TUE NT SHOULD A LOW TRACK JUST
WEST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT ANY
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS
TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS...AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY TALLER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT AT KALB/KPOU...AND
SOUTHERLY AT KGFL/KPOU,,,WILL BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS MAY
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE EAST/NORTHEAST AT KGFL AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS CLOUDS INCREASING TODAY ALONG THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT...RECOVER
TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 75 AND 95 PERCENT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 30 PERCENT TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH OF I90.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THEN BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
HSA WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HSA. THE TRACK AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR. MMEFS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES AT THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN
CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING WET AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 101 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND N-CNTRL VT. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST HAVE HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BTWN 18Z-21Z /2-5
PM/...AND THEN THEY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
21Z-00Z/ 5-8PM/. THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTH MAYBE DELAYED A BIT AS WE
AWAIT FOR THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY TO
BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE POPS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHED ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
OVERNIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS
SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR PORTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
AS THE UPPER WAVE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION SO PT-MOCLDY CONDITIONS FOR THE TERRAIN WITH
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A TRANQUIL END OF
THE DAY. AS THE H850 TEMPS WILL BE BELOW +10C...HIGHS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT COOLER YET YIELD MID 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
MID-UPR 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A
REGION OF INCREASING CONFLUENCE ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
A PTCLDY-MOCLR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND. SO A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY...STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NOVA SCOTIA/NEWFOUNDLAND AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
PHASE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC/FGEN ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN
INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A HIGH ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET />40KTS/ OFF THE ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH HIGHER
PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION /UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS INTO THE CATSKILLS AND COINCIDING DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING
MESOSCALE EFFECTS/.
PER THE EXCELLENT MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION WRITTEN THIS MORNING
FROM WPC...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MAKE FOR A REASONABLE MIDDLE
GROUND...AND SHOW A 2-2.5 SIGMA EVENT FOR LATE JUNE NEAR OH/WV/PA
BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO JUNE 26 1972 (LATE DURING
AGNES` DECAY) BUT OFFSET TO THE WEST. A RARE LATE JUNE WEDGE
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY AS THERE IS AN IN SITU 1020+ HPA HIGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION. A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
FURTHERMORE...WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WOULD NEED TO MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR SATURDAY
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND APPROACHING RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SAT NT-SUN.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR LATE JUNE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ENHANCING
RAIN/SHOWER THREATS. THE LEAD SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE RAIN FOR SAT
NT-SUN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY GIVEN A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE PULLING
NORTHWARD...INCREASING PWAT/S TO 1.75-2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THIS
LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DURATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONFINED TO SAT NT/SUN AM...WHEN THE BEST SURGE OF
WARM ADVECTION/DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS. ASSUMING THIS TIMING
UNFOLDS...THEN A STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY SAT NT INTO SUN AM...BEFORE TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMTS OF
1-2 INCHES APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMTS WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL LATER SUN
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER BREAK COULD OCCUR LATE
WED INTO THU.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BEING MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IF THIS
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR S AND W THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS ONLY REACH THE 60S FOR MAXES...WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY CAN MOVE THROUGH
A BIT QUICKER BEFORE DAY/S END...WARMER MAXES IN THE 70S COULD
OCCUR. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME 70S ARE
INDICATED...AS THIS AREA WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH BEFORE SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL VARY DEPENDING ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY 70S FOR MAXES...AND 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS...IT MAY
BE A BIT HUMID AT TIMES...ESP TUE/TUE NT SHOULD A LOW TRACK JUST
WEST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN AT KPOU AND KPSF TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS...AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY TALLER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNSET...AND
MAY FORM INTO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN AT KPOU/KPSF LATER TONIGHT. THIS
COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...ESP AFTER 08Z/FRI.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND MAINLY INTO THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE EAST/NORTHEAST AT KGFL AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS CLOUDS INCREASING TODAY ALONG THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT...RECOVER
TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 75 AND 95 PERCENT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 30 PERCENT TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH OF I90.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THEN BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
HSA WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HSA. THE TRACK AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR. MMEFS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES AT THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THIS
PATTERN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FOR NOW THE NORTHERN STREAM IS RUNNING
OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH JUST A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH WE FIND AN
ILL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF
THE BAHAMA ISLAND BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA. OVERALL THIS POSITION RESULTS IN WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WE WIND A BIT MORE DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES...BUT EVEN THIS FLOW IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE RATHER STUBBORN OVERNIGHT. LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER POLK/EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES SENT OUT A
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WHICH
HAS SUPPORTED RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS IT PROGRESSED INTO THE NATURE COAST. REGIONAL RADARS
STILL SHOWING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS COUNTIES. IF
THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF THE ORIGINAL BOUNDARY...THEN SOME SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST OF LEVY COUNTY IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE INCLUDING 20-30% POPS ACROSS THESE
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE DAY IN STORE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION
FOLLOWING A NEUTRAL/VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
NATURE COAST ZONES. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST WILL
FAVOR SCT CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THEN MIGRATING INLAND TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR...OR EVEN FURTHER EAST BY THE EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH THE MORE VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN USUALLY SUPPORTS
COASTAL STORMS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON MIGRATING SLOWLY
INLAND BY THE LATER AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A DEFINED PATTERN
TO HELP OR OPPOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION...THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AFTER
20-21Z OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...HOWEVER A
GOOD PUSH OF OUTFLOW BACK TO THE WEST FROM ANY STORM CLUSTERS...
AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT NEW STORM FORMATION BACK TO TO TAMPA
BAY AREA AND THE SUNCOAST BY SUNSET OR LATER. THIS IS THE NATURE
OF SUMMER STORMS UNDER ILL-DEFINED FLOW. DAYSHIFT/EVENING SHIFT
WILL MONITOR STORM EVOLUTION CLOSELY AND UPDATE RAIN CHANCES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE SUMMER STORMS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90.
TONIGHT...
SHOWER AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO
THE EVENING...AND THEN FADE TO A DRY PATTERN OVER THE LAND MASS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY SPEAKING STORMS LINGERING AS LONG AS
THEY HAVE EARLY THIS MORNING IS UNUSUAL...AND WILL NOT FORECAST A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MOST PLACES.
FRIDAY...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND VARIABLE FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES. A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR FORECAST RESULTS...AND A
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE/TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS IS
FORECAST TODAY. A BIG AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MORE ON THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND PULL A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL RESPOND BY SHIFTING SOUTH...SETTING UP MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS TYPICAL ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH THEN QUICKLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY...A SWATH OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
PARTICULARLY LIMITED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECTING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF STORMS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES CLOSER IN TOWARDS NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALLOWING STORM CHANCES TO
SPIKE TO AS MUCH AS 50-60 PERCENT OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NATURE
COAST...AND GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AND THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO A POSITION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A
MORE NEUTRAL SUMMERTIME SETUP...WITH LIGHT FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...AND GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MIGRATED NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE
ASSOCIATED TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW PREVAILING ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TYPICAL STORM
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY...AND MIGRATE INLAND WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPGD/KFMY/KRSW.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY AWAY FROM TYPICAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
WEEKEND...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS AT TIME TO THE NORTH
OF TARPON SPRINGS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TAKE ON A TYPICAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 79 91 78 / 40 20 40 20
FMY 93 76 92 77 / 50 40 50 10
GIF 94 76 93 75 / 60 50 60 20
SRQ 89 77 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 92 74 92 74 / 50 20 40 20
SPG 92 80 91 80 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HEAT TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS DISPLAY HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY
TIME FACTOR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ISOLATED COVERAGE DISPLAYED BY
THE HRRR AND AWR. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SATURDAY AND CLEAR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2.O SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FRIDAY BUT WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90 MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE INTO
THE TROUGH AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND AND HAIL.
THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR AND AWR DISPLAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO FORECAST IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY: JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HEAT TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS DISPLAY HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY
TIME FACTOR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ISOLATED COVERAGE DISPLAYED BY
THE HRRR AND AWR. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
STARTING LATE FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED
LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY THEN LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA OR AT LEAST MOVE INTO THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR MONDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY REBOUND TO THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE INTO
THE TROUGH AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND AND HAIL.
THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR AND AWR DISPLAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO FORECAST IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY: JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
942 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HEAT TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -9 TO -10 THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER
RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. WE
HAVE CHANCE POPS FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DISPLAYED BY THE HRRR AND AWR. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES VERY HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 100 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
STARTING LATE FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED
LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY THEN LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA OR AT LEAST MOVE INTO THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR MONDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY REBOUND TO THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -9 TO -10 THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER
RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR AND AWR DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO
FORECAST IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY: JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
218 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
924 PM CDT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACK BUILDING
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARRIVING ARND 09Z AND
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING. MAY BE MORE RAIN THAN TSRA AFT 13Z.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SHRA AND TSRA TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THUNDER IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS. HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSRA COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST FEATURE IFR CIGS AND EXPECTING
THOSE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SFC LOW
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN
CLOCKWISE BECOMING NORTHEAST ARND 10 KT THIS AFTN. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE NE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE GUSTS AT THIS TIME. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AND
NE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF TSRA AND SHRA
THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AFT 12Z AND
HOW LONG SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEED OF NE WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTN.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AND HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE
TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CDT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL
BE...BUT THINKING GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGHER THAN 20 KT. WE STAY IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SECOND...STRONGER LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ONE MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS LOW MAY BE AS DEEP AS 29.5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT OVER OHIO
WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG SO CAPPED
WIND GUSTS ARND 25 KT. WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE MONDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
924 PM CDT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACK BUILDING
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARRIVING ARND 09Z AND
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING. MAY BE MORE RAIN THAN TSRA AFT 13Z.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SHRA AND TSRA TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THUNDER IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS. HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSRA COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST FEATURE IFR CIGS AND EXPECTING
THOSE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SFC LOW
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN
CLOCKWISE BECOMING NORTHEAST ARND 10 KT THIS AFTN. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE NE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE GUSTS AT THIS TIME. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AND
NE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF TSRA AND SHRA
THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AFT 12Z AND
HOW LONG SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEED OF NE WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTN.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AND HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE
TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND
WASH OUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
ILLINOIS. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST TO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1216 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL HEAD
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ARRIVE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING SCHUYLER...FULTON...KNOX COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL IL UNTIL 5 A.M. WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER UNTIL THEN AS THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND TAKING AIM AT
CENTRAL IL. UPDATING FORECAST FOR TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUBBLE HIGH FROM
THE PERSISTENT MCS IN EAST CENTRAL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NW
MISSOURI TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE INFLUENCE THAT RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASING AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME WILL GIVE THE WARM FRONT A PUSH INTO
CENTRAL IL VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS NEAR THE
I-74 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE HIGHEST AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH (JUST NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR)...BUT THE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAVANA
TO LINCOLN TO CLINTON.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AFTER 05Z (MIDNIGHT CDT) AND CONTINUING UNTIL
DAYBREAK. AM EXPECTING A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN NW IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKE A SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD. CORFIDI
VECTORS ON THE LATEST RAP INDICATE A RATHER DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS TO TRACK TOWARD THE I-74 CORRIDOR AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL IL BY DAYBREAK. THIS TYPE OF SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ONCE THE EXPECTED MCS TRACKS INTO INDIANA THURSDAY MORNING...THE
TRAILING OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SETTING
UP THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE COOL FRONT WILL EDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THRU FRIDAY EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN OF THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VERSUS THE QUICKER
ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE POPS OUT...OR AT LEAST SLIGHTS...FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FORECAST BY MEDIMUM RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP A RATHER DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TAF
SITES FROM 06-08Z BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH COULD BECOME IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS BRIEFLY. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A FEW HOURS OF
POTENTIALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND 06-12Z FOR WHICH
TEMPO GROUPS WITH GUSTY/VARIABLE WINDS AND IFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. AFTERWARD...MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETLLING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL BEGINS TO BRING DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND LOW CLOUD COVER. WINDS E-SE 5-10 KTS VEERING TO SW
OVERNIGHT...THEN N AFTER COLD FRONT AFTER AROUND 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040-041-047>050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
CAUSE AN STRONG SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CAUSING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE
UNSEASONABLY COON CONDITIONS.
IN THE LONG TERM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BY
SUNDAY. BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVE OUR WAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
RADAR TRENDS SHOW TSRA DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND EXITING CENTRAL
INDIANA TO THE EAST. IR IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS. WARM AND
MOIST SERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM...OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. THUS WILL TREND POPS BACK HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE EXPECTED BOUNDARIES WILL BE LINGERING FROM
EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR AGREES THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DEFINITE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS MODELS DEVELOP STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...BUT A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED IN KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FROM FRIDAY ON AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AS LOW AS +10 CELSIUS ACROSS OUR NORTH. MODELS
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
APPEARS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE ANOTHER MAY PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TO COVER THESE POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA...AIDED BY A
45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 251600Z BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING
WINDS TO ABOUT 25 KTS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 012-015 DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AS THE COMPLEX MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND HOW FAST
AIR MASS INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY LENDS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS LATER TODAY.
CB BASES 020-040.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION...BUT EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO 220-250 DEGREES
AT 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
203 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
EXISTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST UPDATE SENT A BIT AGO TO TRIM POPS PRIOR TO 8Z (MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH) BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MCV. MAIN SHOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS IOWA WITH SEVERAL LARGE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL OF THE HI
RES MODELS THEY ARE TRENDING MORE SE THAN EAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY/THETA E GRADIENT. WHILE THIS WILL TRY TO SURGE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...CONCERNS INCREASING THAT LITTLE RAIN MAY OCCUR
PRIOR TO 12Z (AND MAYBE LATER). HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED TIMING
OVERNIGHT TO BRING IN INCREASING CHANCES AFTER 12Z BUT BACKED OFF
ANY CAT POPS WILL 12Z OR AFTER. WILL DEFER ANY FURTHER BACKING OFF
OF POPS TO ARRIVING MIDNIGHT CREW AND MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
AS USUAL WITH SUMMER CONVECTION...A VERY COMPLICATED SETUP WITH
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY CONVECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
UPSTREAM TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
CONVECTION IN IL HAS STALLED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION OVER IA BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURGING BOUNDARY. EXPECT EARLY
EVENING TO BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT FIRST FOCUS WILL BE ON DECAYING
COMPLEX FROM IA MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR
AND RAP NOW PICKING UP ON THIS WHILE LOWER RES SPECTRAL MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH. THINK THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MUCAPES RISE
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. 0-3 KM AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR ALSO
INCREASE LATE WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
FUELING SECONDARY MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE
THE SYSTEM TO BRING FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD OCCUR GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH
BACKED WINDS. THUS THE ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR THIS
AREA.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH WE CAN
DESTABILIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE IN THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH THE VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND STILL NEARLY FULL RIVERS...STREAMS AND
RESERVOIRS WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THESE AREAS THAT
CANNOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND THE EASTERN TROF WILL DEEPENG
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.
BAROCLINIC DEEPENING FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT EJECTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES DIVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROF.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND EACH HAS SLIGHT
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES. WITH THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
AND THE COLD FLOW OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND -SHRA TO CONTINUE FROM SUN-WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
THIS WILL HELP KEEP SIGNIFICANT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION EXTENDING FROM NE IL INTO NW INDIANA. TRIED TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS IN TAFS IN THE LIGHT OF THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL FORECAST AND THE ONGOING RADAR AND SFC OBS. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...AND SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER NRN INDIANA UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-012>015-020-
022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
357 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON WEAK SHORTWAVE
CUTTING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SET UP IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY SHIFT NORTH ENOUGH TO THE IOWA BORDER
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IS THE FARTHEST
EXTENT NORTH IT WILL REACH. DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MO/IA BORDER WITH STILL A GOOD ATMOSPHERE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM
LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 3500-3800 METER RANGE. FORWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST PROVIDING SOME TRAINING
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. THE 25.19Z HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THE
HEAVY CONVECTION IN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. OTHER
CONCERN WAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THUS LOW
IMPACT ON ANY ONGOING FLOODING
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A MUCH...MUCH QUIETER 7 DAYS AHEAD IN THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP ON HIGH PRESSURE COMING ONSHORE NEAR
THE OREGON COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING THROUGH
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING INTO 12Z AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLIPPING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES IN IA. WITH YESTERDAY/S BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
NORTHERN MO...A LOT OF THE MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY/S SYSTEM STILL
AROUND. MODELS FOCUSING IN ON PWATS BTX 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH
IS AROUND +1 TO +2 STD DEV. GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT AS MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONV PRESENT TO INCREASE LIFT. 0-6KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7 G/KG
WHICH IS DECENT ENOUGH. OVERALL SOUNDING PROFILE MUCH LESS SATURATED
THAN MOST OF THIS WEEK...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE THE MOST
EFFICIENT IN RAIN PRODUCTION.
FRI AFTERNOON TEMPS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C IN OUR EAST AND 14C IN
OUR WEST...ABOUT -1 TO -2 STD DEV. THURSDAY/S 850 MB TEMPS WERE
AROUND 14C NE TO 17C SW. AM EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO BREAK
THROUGH...BUT NOT A LOT...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
FRI AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...0-6KM MUCAPE VALUES BTX 700
AND 1000 J/KG WHICH WHICH IS MINIMAL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
30KTS...ALSO MINIMAL. LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 1000M. OVERALL SOUNDING
PROFILE SUGGESTS ANYTHING THAT FORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED. THUS
OVERALL...AM EXPECTING NIL SVR/TOR THREAT FRI PM AND THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHORT LIVED NON-SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY IN OUR NW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
PROPAGATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NW MINNESOTA INTO SE
MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO THIS AND PUSHING
THROUGH IA DURING THE DAYTIME. THE 12Z GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT PLACES THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR CWA BY 12-15Z SUN.
HAVE MAINLY DISREGARDED THE GFS AND WENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF OTHER
MODELS. PWATS JUMP FROM AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND 0-6KM MUCAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 400 TO 600 J/KG. POSITION OF FRONT DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING IMPORTANT FOR SVR POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW...ALL SIGNS
POINT TO THIS BOUNDARY BEING WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
FOR MONDAY AND THE REST OF THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...PERSISTENCE
BECOMES A GOOD FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL KEEP THE DMX CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEMING INTO THE NEXT
THU/FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME. A HUGE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE RIDGE WILL
STAY TO OUR WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE
AROUND 15C TO OUR EAST AND 18C TO THE WEST. MODELS HINTING AT
THERMAL RIDGE CRASHING DOWN INTO IA SOMETIME LATER IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO POP CHANCES TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALO/DSM/OTM BEFORE
EXPECTING STRATUS TO LIFT BY 20Z-23Z. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT DSM/OTM/FOD AS LOOKS TO SKIRT OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MENTIONING ATTM DUE TO DURATION.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
111 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WAS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR. A WEAK
LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS IOWA WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING BACK ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
18Z SFC DATA PLACES AN INFERRED LOW JUST EAST OF KOMA WITH A WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KSTL. DEW POINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
RADAR AND RAP TRENDS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MEANS THE COMPLEX WILL BE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECONDARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN WESTERN IOWA MAY POSE THE BETTER
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. IF SEVERE STORMS DO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD BE MORE AT
THREAT.
AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GROW UPSCALE AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY A THREAT AS STORMS
MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY...RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS PLAUSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY...RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE REMAINS IN THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN PER THE 12Z NAM...ALTHOUGH
THAT PARTICULAR MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH ON QPF. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS
THROUGH THE REGION IN SHARPENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FORCING WILL
EXIT QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A DRY PERIOD CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GUIDE
PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS BLENDED
POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ARE REASONABLE. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
TOUCHING THE LOWER 80S.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THU MORNING.
ALTHOUGH KBRL IS CURRENTLY AT IFR WHICH SHOULD NOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER AS A STRONG STORM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AT
KBRL SHOULD ALSO FALL BELOW 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS ARE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF -TSRA/TSRA THROUGH
10Z IS A KBRL...HENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THERE. A RETURN TO VFR IS FORECAST AREAWIDE INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOILS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
ALREADY QUITE MOIST AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
SATURATE THE SOILS. AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS AND SOME ARE IN FLOOD. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISES...SOME POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT...ON AREA RIVERS AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS SW AND FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY STORMS HAVE FIRED UP JUST NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BUT ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND WILL BE AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG I-80 AND THE METRO AREA. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...AFT
09Z OR 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PROVIDING
SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. MUCH OF THIS AREA REMAINS
CAPPED AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HIGH
CAPE VALUES AVAILABLE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS LOCATION THEY
LIKELY WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON INITIATION WITH STRONG VEERING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A TORNADIC THREAT THROUGH THE MID-
EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THINKING THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LLJ DEVELOPS
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE
NORTH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. STORM
REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BETWEEN 02Z TO 05Z THURSDAY OVER
THIS CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE FRONT SHOULD LIGHT UP ALONG
THIS REGION. THE 24.19Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHES THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS BUT STILL LOOKING
AT A BREAK BETWEEN REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING MORE LIKELY
STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN SHORT WAVE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY 12Z...BUT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MORNING. AS FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THURSDAY...EXPECTING A BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL BE HELD BACK IN THE
70S FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF IOWA
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS COOL FRONTS DROP
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE
LITTLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS IN TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH 11Z WILL
PERSIST ACROSS KDSM AND KOTM NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 11 THEN IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY 15Z ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
TAF LOCATIONS MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS
WILL BECOME NRLY AFT 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DETERIORATE AFT
26/03Z WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL IA TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WILL STILL NEED TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE WATCH FARTHER WEST. VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 13-14KFT RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY AND
WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL ALREADY TODAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. THUS...EXPANDED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS AND QPF
CONSIDERABLY B/T 03-09Z THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN PROBLEM IS WHERE THE FRONT CURRENTLY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH
OVER OUR AREA IS GOING TO GO AND HOW FAST. INITIALLY THE FRONT
CAME FURTHER SOUTH FASTER THAN ANYTHING DEPICTED. THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT HAS STALLED NEAR A BURLINGTON TO GOODLAND TO OBERLIN TO
NORTON LINE. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LARGE SCALE OUTPUT...NOT DOING
WELL WITH THE FRONT POSITION. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY
RIGHT NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LESS BUT STILL NEAR PLUS 15.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION NEAREST
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING. SO GOING BY ABOVE REASONING WHICH MATCHES WHAT
THE RAP IS SHOWING...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION GOES THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW THEM MAKING IT
VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THEY WILL MAKE FURTHER
THAN INDICATED AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WENT AHEAD AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS VERY SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH. NOT
SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO/WHERE IT WILL BE SINCE THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SO POOR RIGHT NOW. NAM STILL DOES NOT HAVE IT THROUGH
THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW. OTHER OUTPUT HAS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DO HAVE HAVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SINCE AM NOT SURE OF THE FINAL FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
AREA JUST HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY
FRONTAL POSITION. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU
JUN 25 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFY LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN WHILE THE TROUGH STARTS TO FILL.
OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR
WEST. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO PRODUCE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RANGE WHILE
THE LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 60S DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGLD AND KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE AS STRATUS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN PROBLEM IS WHERE THE FRONT CURRENTLY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH
OVER OUR AREA IS GOING TO GO AND HOW FAST. INITIALLY THE FRONT
CAME FURTHER SOUTH FASTER THAN ANYTHING DEPICTED. THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT HAS STALLED NEAR A BURLINGTON TO GOODLAND TO OBERLIN TO
NORTON LINE. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LARGE SCALE OUTPUT...NOT DOING
WELL WITH THE FRONT POSITION. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY
RIGHT NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LESS BUT STILL NEAR PLUS 15.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION NEAREST
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING. SO GOING BY ABOVE REASONING WHICH MATCHES WHAT
THE RAP IS SHOWING...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION GOES THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW THEM MAKING IT
VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THEY WILL MAKE FURTHER
THAN INDICATED AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WENT AHEAD AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS VERY SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH. NOT
SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO/WHERE IT WILL BE SINCE THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SO POOR RIGHT NOW. NAM STILL DOES NOT HAVE IT THROUGH
THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW. OTHER OUTPUT HAS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DO HAVE HAVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SINCE AM NOT SURE OF THE FINAL FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
AREA JUST HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY
FRONTAL POSITION. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.
WITH LIMITING FORCING ALOFT I AM NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE WILL
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE
FLUX/MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND PEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. TRACK WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/FRONT POSITION...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE I COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH SLOWEST STORMS WOULD BE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. MODERATE
INSTABILITY A GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
LATER IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION/ LINGERING
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY
NIGHT. I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20...SINCE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THESE PERIODS.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
US WITH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF THROUGH
THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS AMPLIFIED NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PRIMARY STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA.
MODELS SHOW LEE TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
SHORTWAVES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OCCASIONAL KICKING
BACKDOOR FRONTS TOWARDS THE WESTERN PLAINS. TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS MOST PERIODS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL FROM THE ECMWF
WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS GFS/GEFS SHOWS LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING SLIGHTLY. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS...SO I LIMITED POPS TO 20/30. TUESDAY IS ALSO THE DAY WITH
THE LARGEST TEMP SPREAD ALOFT/AT THE SURFACE WITH GFS POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING NEAR 100F AND ECMWF CLOSER TO THE LOW/MID 90S. I KEPT MID-
UPPER 90S INHERITED FROM WEIGHTED BLEND CONSIDERING THE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGLD AND KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE AS STRATUS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
639 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECT THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SINCE THE CAP IS
NOW BROKEN. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ADJUST T/TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONINGTHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT
THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.
TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AND THEN BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER
04Z TO MOST AREAS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD SHOULD ENSUE INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY/DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTHMENTIONING
THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.
TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AND THEN BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER
04Z TO MOST AREAS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD SHOULD ENSUE INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY/DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND THE NMM AND ARW WRF REALLY KILL
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF IT AS IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHEAST. WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
EAST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE FROM 12Z-
17Z JUST IN CASE IT DOES SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN THE CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS WILL PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...EITHER AS AN OUTFLOW OR THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT...BY MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FIGURE ON A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DECENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A REALLY JUICY AIRMASS AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS OUR MID-SECTION LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SPARSE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN IT MAY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT TO
THE AR/TN BORDER AREAS...IF CONVECTION IS NOT ONGOING AND RE-
ENFORCING IT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA REGARDLESS
OF WHERE IT ENDS UP TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.
THE BEST ADVICE I HAVE IS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SEE WHERE WE ARE FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
MODELS DO AGREE ON A RAPID DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FIGURE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 AREAWIDE. WILL WRITE
ONE MORE SPS FOR THIS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT. WITH THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100. SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GIVEN THE RATHER MARGINAL PERFORMANCE OF A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE 12Z WEDNESDAY/00Z THURSDAY MODEL CYCLES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID
INITIALIZE BETTER AND WERE AT LEAST USED A FRAMEWORK TOWARD THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SEMI-
PERMANENT CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
EXISTENCE AND ORIENTATION OF THE POP FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS OWED TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT
OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PLAY HAVOC IN THE GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR VARIATIONS IN POP
ASSESSMENT FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE COVERAGE AREAS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, ANY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINOR.
THE LOW TO HIGH END RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
EXPERIENCING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE PATTERN
FEATURES. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACT EARLY ON TO DEPICT ANY
DEVIATIONS TO THE MEAN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STATIC UPPER AIR FIELDS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WINDS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KEVV/KOWB
WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND THE NMM AND ARW WRF REALLY KILL
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF IT AS IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHEAST. WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
EAST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE FROM 12Z-
17Z JUST IN CASE IT DOES SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN THE CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS WILL PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...EITHER AS AN OUTFLOW OR THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT...BY MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FIGURE ON A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DECENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A REALLY JUICY AIRMASS AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS OUR MID-SECTION LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SPARSE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN IT MAY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT TO
THE AR/TN BORDER AREAS...IF CONVECTION IS NOT ONGOING AND RE-
ENFORCING IT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA REGARDLESS
OF WHERE IT ENDS UP TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.
THE BEST ADVICE I HAVE IS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SEE WHERE WE ARE FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
MODELS DO AGREE ON A RAPID DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FIGURE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 AREAWIDE. WILL WRITE
ONE MORE SPS FOR THIS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT. WITH THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100. SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GIVEN THE RATHER MARGINAL PERFORMANCE OF A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE 12Z WEDNESDAY/00Z THURSDAY MODEL CYCLES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID
INITIALIZE BETTER AND WERE AT LEAST USED A FRAMEWORK TOWARD THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SEMI-
PERMANENT CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
EXISTENCE AND ORIENTATION OF THE POP FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS OWED TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT
OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PLAY HAVOC IN THE GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR VARIATIONS IN POP
ASSESSMENT FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE COVERAGE AREAS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, ANY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINOR.
THE LOW TO HIGH END RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
EXPERIENCING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE PATTERN
FEATURES. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACT EARLY ON TO DEPICT ANY
DEVIATIONS TO THE MEAN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STATIC UPPER AIR FIELDS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WINDS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF KEVV
WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD AND PASS BY WITHOUT IMPACTING
KEVV OR KOWB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A VCSH
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS JUST IN CASE SOMETHING POPS UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING...WITH
SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY IMPACT KEVV AND KOWB LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HANDLED IT WITH A PROB30 FOR
NOW...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED IF THE TSRA IS A PREVAILING CONDITION
FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION REACH KEVV AND KOWB
TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND THE NMM AND ARW WRF REALLY KILL
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF IT AS IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHEAST. WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
EAST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE FROM 12Z-
17Z JUST IN CASE IT DOES SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN THE CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS WILL PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...EITHER AS AN OUTFLOW OR THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT...BY MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FIGURE ON A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DECENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A REALLY JUICY AIRMASS AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS OUR MID-SECTION LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SPARSE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN IT MAY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT TO
THE AR/TN BORDER AREAS...IF CONVECTION IS NOT ONGOING AND RE-
ENFORCING IT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA REGARDLESS
OF WHERE IT ENDS UP TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.
THE BEST ADVICE I HAVE IS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SEE WHERE WE ARE FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
MODELS DO AGREE ON A RAPID DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FIGURE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 AREAWIDE. WILL WRITE
ONE MORE SPS FOR THIS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT. WITH THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100. SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GIVEN THE RATHER MARGINAL PERFORMANCE OF A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE 12Z WEDNESDAY/00Z THURSDAY MODEL CYCLES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID
INITIALIZE BETTER AND WERE AT LEAST USED A FRAMEWORK TOWARD THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SEMI-
PERMANENT CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
EXISTENCE AND ORIENTATION OF THE POP FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS OWED TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT
OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PLAY HAVOC IN THE GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR VARIATIONS IN POP
ASSESSMENT FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE COVERAGE AREAS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, ANY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINOR.
THE LOW TO HIGH END RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
EXPERIENCING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE PATTERN
FEATURES. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACT EARLY ON TO DEPICT ANY
DEVIATIONS TO THE MEAN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STATIC UPPER AIR FIELDS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WINDS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA SUGGESTS SOME REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE CLOSE TO THE
KEVV/KOWB TERMINALS AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL TREND WITH A
VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A FEW CU AND CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SW WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KEVV AND KOWB AGAIN AFTER 00Z TOMORROW
EVENING. WILL HOLD AND TAKE A LOOK AT MORE DATA BEFORE ADDING A
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
146 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN PATCHES
STILL OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TAF SITES LOOK TO STAY DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT IN THE AEX TAF AREA BUT ONLY EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. LOOKING AHEAD ON THURSDAY MOSTLY VFR
TO PREVAIL WITH VCNTY TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
GETS STORMS FIRED UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DIFFERENCE WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...IS STRONGEST ACTIVITY
IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND
INSTABILITY IS JUST A TAD LESS...THUS STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...MAINLY FROM BOUNDARY COLLISION...THAT
COULD PRODUCE A DOWNBURST. OTHERWISE...A LOT OF LIGHTNING...AND
WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...WITH
LEFT OVER CONVECTION CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...BEFORE MOST
LAND AREAS WILL BE SHOWER FREE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
LANDBREEZE.
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT TO INCREASE THEM OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS...AND REDUCING THEM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BASED ON
LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER C LA MOVING W OF AEX...NOT LIKELY TO BE A
PROBLEM. LARGER COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN FROM MS/SE LA WILL LIKELY AFFECT LFT/ARA THIS
EVENING 01-04Z...PLACING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS AT ARA/LFT.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE IN THE DISSIPATING STAGE BY THE TIME/OR IF
IT REACHES LCH...LEAVING ONLY VCTS AT THIS TIME THRU 03Z. AFTER
03-04Z...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR THU...EXPECTING ISO
SHRA/TSRA...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL GIVE
THE AREA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY.
SHORT RANGE...THE HRRR DEPICTS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE
ATCHAFALAYA IN EASTERLY FLOW AND MOVING INTO THE ACADIANA AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS DUE TO THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS HIGH
THETA AIR AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUING
ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT ON A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROF INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
OUR AREA AND BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR
AREA AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 91 77 90 75 / 40 20 30 20
LCH 90 79 88 76 / 40 10 30 10
LFT 92 77 88 75 / 40 10 30 10
BPT 90 78 89 76 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
914 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE...FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.
PREVIOUS...
...THUNDER MENTION WAS REMOVED GIVEN A PROGGED LACK OF INSTABILITY.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THIS AND A COUPLED JET WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS
IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BOUNDARY...BUT SO FAR THE RUC AND THE HRRR HAVE HANDLED IT
BEST...SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAIN AND THEN RAMPED UP AS THE
LOW APPROACHES.
OVERNIGHT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...AT LEAST UNTIL DRY AIR WRAPS
INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE OCCLUDING LOW LATER ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED IN WESTERN OHIO. OVERALL SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION AND
DEEPENING IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO. THE MATURING SYSTEM IS THEN PROJECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
TAIL END OF RAIN SHIELD WILL THUS PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT THROUGH THE MORNING. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE
WITH WARM FRONT POSITIONING AND PROLONGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. AT MOMENT...AREAS NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...ARE
PROJECTED FOR THE HIGHER TOTALS AROUND...AND IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES. GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE COLLABORATED FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CONTINUED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS AN INTERESTING CONDITIONAL COMPONENT TO THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FORECAST. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND CUTOFF NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY HIGH...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES ESCALATE IN
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR UNDER THE ENCROACHING DRY SLOT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ESCALATE. NO ACTION WAS TAKEN
JUST YET...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
PERIODIC SHOWER POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS AN AMPLIFIED GREAT LAKE-TO-GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS DRASTICALLY INCREASED RIDGING
IN THE WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IS EXCEEDINGLY SUSPECT AT THIS
JUNCTURE...HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROBABLY SEES THE
BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED VCTS AT ZZV WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN CONTAINED TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. MAINLY MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT
AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL APPROACHES AT WHICH POINT MOST SITES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
STARTED AN UPWARD TREND BUT DID NOT GO BACK TO VFR AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE CAN SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN ONTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE AREA SEEMS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 1 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PROBLEM...HOWEVER AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS PINNED DOWN MORE
CLOSELY...AND EXACT BASINS WHICH WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL
ARE DETERMINED...A MORE ADEQUATE DETERMINATION OF THE RISK OF
RIVER FLOODING CAN BE MADE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-
031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-
016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
15/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN INTO
THIS EVENING. A BRIEF DRY BREAK FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS FROM LAST
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
RECOVERY EXPECTED. THUS...OPTED TO FURTHER CUT BACK ON THE
MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS...WITH
ONLY ABOUT 500J/KG OF MUCAPE SUGGESTED IN THE MESOANALYSIS. SPC
FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE SLIGHT RISK NOW PUSHED SOUTH
OF ALL BUT TUCKER COUNTY.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER INDIANA MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT
A POCKET OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
BACK END OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE...BUT FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE AN OVERALL DRY INTERLUDE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO RISE BACK
NORTHWARD. BEYOND THIS...AN UNUSUALLY POTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
SUMMER WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
BRIEF ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A RAPIDLY
AMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H500 TROUGH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEN AS IT
RIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. H500 CLOSES OFF BY
00Z SUNDAY AND SYSTEM BECOMES SOMEWHAT VERTICALLY STACKED...SLOWING
ITS MOVEMENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FEED WILL PROVIDE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS DEPICT A DRY SLOT
ARRIVING AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH EXTENT AND TIMING
ARE TOUGH TO FIGURE AT THIS DISTANCE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS RIPPLES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW LATER SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY BREAK SHOULD
FINALLY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIPS EAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS DISTANCE LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AND
THEREAFTER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS
PACKAGE...BUT WILL UPDATE HWO WITH WATER CONCERNS.
THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH BY SUNDAY. AFTER SEEING VALUES
BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL SEASONABLE ON FRIDAY...DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE
MUCH TIGHTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. H850 TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGIC
MINIMUMS COULD BE CHALLENGED ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA. A PUSH OF
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE JUNE WILL SWING IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SETUP A SITUATION
WHERE HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AS
THE BETTER CONVECTION GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE.
WHILE NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR THIS EVE
AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH AN IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER MOST OF THE SITES FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PUSHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
208 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RETURN FLO OF MOISTURE BEGINNING THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN VRB
CLDNS/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE FA AND EVEN ISOLD SHRAS
FM RIC ON SSW. WK WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL BE SLOLY LIFTING NNE ACRS
THE FA REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS PSBL...MNLY
THIS AFTN...DUE TO INCRSD (THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY. WATCHING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY SO FAR THIS MRNG.
BOTH 06Z/25 NAM AND LATEST HRRR REF KEYING ON REMNANT S/W TRACKING
SE INTO THE FA LATER TDA...KICKING OFF AN AREA OF STRONG/PSBLY
SVR TSTMS (MOST LIKELY AFT 22-23Z/25) WHICH MOVES FM CNTRL VA TO
THE ESE THROUGH REST OF THE EVE HRS. DAMAGING WNDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE INCRG PWATS...LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
ARE PSBL. HI TEMPS FM THE L80S NR THE CST TO 85-90F ELSW.
ANY CONVECTION TO WANE BY/AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LO
TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRS MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA COAST FRI MORN. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT
STALLS ACROSS SRN VA DRNG THE AFTRN AND ONLY DRIFT TO NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER FRI NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
THRU 00Z SAT. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT LCTN IS.
SRN AREAS WILL STILL BE IN WRM SECTOR ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA
90 GIVEN PRTL SUNSHINE WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NITE INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD
AND WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTAB WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET PRD WITH WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY RNFL.
1-2 INCH QPF PSBL. ANTHR TRICKY TMP FCST ALL BASED ON TRIPLE PT
LOW TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY STAY IN WRM SCTR ALLOWING
READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S WHILE NR AREAS REMAIN ARND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT NORMAL ON AVG HOWEVER. FOR SAT NIGHT...SFC LO PRES PULLS
N/NE OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS
(POPS RANGE FM 50% SW TO 60-70% NE). CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES TO
ONLY CSTL AREAS SUN AS THE UPR-TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC AND THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT. DRY CONDS CONTINUE INTO
MON...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUE
(20% POPS) AND WED (30% POPS) AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W.
HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY RANGE THRU THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SCT TSTMS TO THE AREA. TSTMS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WILL UPDATE TAFS FOR ANY TSTMS AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER AND
TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED. A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE
SOUTH SOMETIME FRIDAY BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SITES IN THE MORNING SHIFTING WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SOME
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WHICH IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND SCT TSTMS ARE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED FOR SCA
IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED LATER TNIS
AFTERNOON.
]
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR
SLY/SELY FLOW TO DEVELOP...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT (PRIMARILY
IN GUSTS TO 20 KT) OVER THE BAY/SOUND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE
AREA ON FRI. HOWEVER...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA
ATTM. SW WINDS 10-15 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NE-E
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
PRIMARILY EAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SE THEN S ON
SATURDAY...THEN SW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVE ON THE CHES BAY POST-
FRONTAL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAY REACH 5-6 FT ON THE
OCEAN DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
153 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS FROM LAST
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
RECOVERY EXPECTED. THUS...OPTED TO FURTHER CUT BACK ON THE
MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS...WITH
ONLY ABOUT 500J/KG OF MUCAPE SUGGESTED IN THE MESOANALYSIS. SPC
FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE SLIGHT RISK NOW PUSHED SOUTH
OF ALL BUT TUCKER COUNTY.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER INDIANA MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT
A POCKET OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCE
POPS ARE INTRODUCED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO AN ENHANCING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE HAS LED TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED
AND AGREED UPON BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE DURATION OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH CLOUD COVER AND SO MUCH WARM AIR
ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA. A PUSH OF
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE JUNE WILL SWING IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SETUP A SITUATION
WHERE HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AS
THE BETTER CONVECTION GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE.
WHILE NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR THIS EVE
AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH AN IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER MOST OF THE SITES FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PUSHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
857 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RETURN FLO OF MOISTURE BEGINNING THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN VRB
CLDNS/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE FA AND EVEN ISOLD SHRAS
FM RIC ON SSW. WK WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL BE SLOLY LIFTING NNE ACRS
THE FA REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS PSBL...MNLY
THIS AFTN...DUE TO INCRSD (THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY. WATCHING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY SO FAR THIS MRNG.
BOTH 06Z/25 NAM AND LATEST HRRR REF KEYING ON REMNANT S/W TRACKING
SE INTO THE FA LATER TDA...KICKING OFF AN AREA OF STRONG/PSBLY
SVR TSTMS (MOST LIKELY AFT 22-23Z/25) WHICH MOVES FM CNTRL VA TO
THE ESE THROUGH REST OF THE EVE HRS. DAMAGING WNDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE INCRG PWATS...LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
ARE PSBL. HI TEMPS FM THE L80S NR THE CST TO 85-90F ELSW.
ANY CONVECTION TO WANE BY/AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LO
TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRS MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA COAST FRI MORN. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT
STALLS ACROSS SRN VA DRNG THE AFTRN AND ONLY DRIFT TO NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER FRI NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
THRU 00Z SAT. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT LCTN IS.
SRN AREAS WILL STILL BE IN WRM SECTOR ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA
90 GIVEN PRTL SUNSHINE WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NITE INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD
AND WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTAB WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET PRD WITH WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY RNFL.
1-2 INCH QPF PSBL. ANTHR TRICKY TMP FCST ALL BASED ON TRIPLE PT
LOW TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY STAY IN WRM SCTR ALLOWING
READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S WHILE NR AREAS REMAIN ARND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT NORMAL ON AVG HOWEVER. FOR SAT NIGHT...SFC LO PRES PULLS
N/NE OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS
(POPS RANGE FM 50% SW TO 60-70% NE). CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES TO
ONLY CSTL AREAS SUN AS THE UPR-TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC AND THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT. DRY CONDS CONTINUE INTO
MON...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUE
(20% POPS) AND WED (30% POPS) AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W.
HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY RANGE THRU THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE
FLOW TURNS LIGHT SE OR S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MD
LATER TODAY COULD PRODUCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.
ATTM...HAVE LEFT ALL TAFS DRY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT... WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SLY/SELY FLOW
TO DEVELOP...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY THE AFTN HOURS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT (PRIMARILY IN GUSTS TO
20 KT) OVER THE BAY/SOUND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE AREA ON FRI.
HOWEVER...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA ATTM. SW WINDS
10-15 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NE-E FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SE THEN S ON SATURDAY...THEN SW SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRI
AFTN/EVE ON THE CHES BAY POST-FRONTAL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAY
REACH 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
855 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RETURN FLO OF MOISTURE BEGINNING THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN VRB
CLDNS/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE FA AND EVEN ISOLD SHRAS
FM RIC ON SSW. WK WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL BE SLOLY LIFTING NNE ACRS
THE FA REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS PSBL...MNLY
THIS AFTN...DUE TO INCRSD (THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY. WATCHING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY SO FAR THIS MRNG.
BOTH 06Z/25 NAM AND LATEST HRRR REF KEYING ON REMNANT S/W TRACKING
SE INTO THE FA LATER TDA...PTNTLLY KICKING OFF AN AREA OF
STRONG/PSBLY SVR TSTMS (MOST LIKELY AFT 22-23Z/25) WHICH MOVES FM
CNTRL VA TO THE ESE THROUGH REST OF THE EVE HRS. DAMAGING WNDS THE
MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE INCRG PWATS...LCLLY HVY
DOWNPOURS ARE PSBL. HI TEMPS FM THE L80S NR THE CST TO 85-90F
ELSW.
ANY CONVECTION TO WANE BY/AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LO
TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRS MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA COAST FRI MORN. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT
STALLS ACROSS SRN VA DRNG THE AFTRN AND ONLY DRIFT TO NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER FRI NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
THRU 00Z SAT. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT LCTN IS.
SRN AREAS WILL STILL BE IN WRM SECTOR ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA
90 GIVEN PRTL SUNSHINE WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NITE INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD
AND WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTAB WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET PRD WITH WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY RNFL.
1-2 INCH QPF PSBL. ANTHR TRICKY TMP FCST ALL BASED ON TRIPLE PT
LOW TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY STAY IN WRM SCTR ALLOWING
READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S WHILE NR AREAS REMAIN ARND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT NORMAL ON AVG HOWEVER. FOR SAT NIGHT...SFC LO PRES PULLS
N/NE OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS
(POPS RANGE FM 50% SW TO 60-70% NE). CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES TO
ONLY CSTL AREAS SUN AS THE UPR-TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC AND THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT. DRY CONDS CONTINUE INTO
MON...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUE
(20% POPS) AND WED (30% POPS) AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W.
HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY RANGE THRU THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE
FLOW TURNS LIGHT SE OR S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MD
LATER TODAY COULD PRODUCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.
ATTM...HAVE LEFT ALL TAFS DRY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT... WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SLY/SELY FLOW
TO DEVELOP...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY THE AFTN HOURS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT (PRIMARILY IN GUSTS TO
20 KT) OVER THE BAY/SOUND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE AREA ON FRI.
HOWEVER...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA ATTM. SW WINDS
10-15 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NE-E FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SE THEN S ON SATURDAY...THEN SW SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRI
AFTN/EVE ON THE CHES BAY POST-FRONTAL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAY
REACH 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING...SOME OF THE RAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERNMOST ZONES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE
MESOANALYSIS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS
ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH THROUGH MIDDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE
FIELD BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY CWA.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT WITH MID-
LEVEL/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP. REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM THE MCS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. TO THE
SOUTH...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT JUICIER...QUESTIONS
LINGER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY AND SHEAR. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...I THINK THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
REACHES OF MY CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCE
POPS ARE INTRODUCED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO AN ENHANCING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE HAS LED TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED
AND AGREED UPON BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE DURATION OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH CLOUD COVER AND SO MUCH WARM AIR
ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA. A PUSH OF
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE JUNE WILL SWING IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SETUP A SITUATION
WHERE HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL TRAVERSE THE SITES SOUTH OF
I-80 THIS MORNING...BRINGING MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AS
THE BETTER CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT ZZV HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
THE ADDITIONAL TSRA WORDING...GOING WITH MAINLY RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE.
ONCE SHOWERS TRANSITION TO THE EAST...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND QUICK DECOUPLING IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WHERE IT RAINS THE MOST.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
356 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
LAKES EARLIER...WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHILE
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AFTER 06Z. THE OVERALL TREND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
CLEARING SKIES WITH DIMINISHING PCPN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MSTR IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE PCPN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
850MB DEW PTS WILL BE BETWEEN 9C AND 11C...SFC DEW PTS WILL LINGER
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.20 INCHES. FORCING THIS EVENING WILL BE FROM A COMBINED
EFFORT OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LVL CONVERGENCE.
500-300MB QVECTORS SHOW FORCING (ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB
TROUGH)...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST BY 06Z. CURRENT SFC OBS SHOWING SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IN WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW AND AFTN TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S. THE LAKE BREEZE FORMATION HAS HELPED CONCENTRATE MOST
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MI. A
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HRRR DATA SHOW CAPE VALUES NEARING 1200 J/KG (AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES). CAPES VALUES DIMINISH QUICKLY TO UNDER 500 J/KG ARND
03Z...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NRN MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN
GREAT LAKES AFTER 03Z...THE RESULT OF A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING FURTHER SOUTH INTO MI. 850/500MB RH FALLS
FROM 80 PCT TO UNDER 40 PCT...PWAT VALUES FALL FROM 1.20IN TO
0.50IN AND 850MB DEW PTS DRY FROM ARND 12C TO ARND 4C.
OVERALL WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS FALL
THROUGH THE 50S WHILE SFC DEW PTS SLOWLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
QUASI-PERMANENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS WITH DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS BECOMING
DRIER ON FRIDAY...STILL A HINT OF SOME HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/H9-H8 THETA-E RIDGING UP THE US-131 AND I-75 CORRIDORS IN
NORTHERN LOWER AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...A TERRIFIC STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND PUSHING NORTH/NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL KEEPS THIS SYSTEM
JUST SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. BUT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE FOR AREAS NEAR
SAGINAW BAY AND SOMETHING THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARD GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO COUNTIES LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE END RESULT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE CLOUDS BUT
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES/DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...SO BY ALL MEANS NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT).
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE MOISTURE-RICH SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES...PERHAPS PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF TIME TO IRON OF THE DETAILS ON IF/WHEN THAT`S
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
REGION AFT 06Z...WILL BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ACRS NRN MI TAF
SITES. EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS SFC DEW PTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S...GENERATING SOME MVFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
WINDS AND WAVES ARE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SWR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE REGION SOUTH OF I-96
WILL SEE THE STEADIEST...AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...BY DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ONLY SEE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE RAINS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL DRY
OUT...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AT THIS POINT...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL STAY MILD
WITHOUT TOO MUCH HEAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 75 TO
80 INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST DILEMMA TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAP MODEL DATA SHOWS A
GLANCING BLOW OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE 01Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS
A BATCH OF RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.
SO...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THE CHANCES TAPER OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH AS THIS AREA IS MOST REMOVED
FROM THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OFF THE RAP ACROSS
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING OVERALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN AS THE FOCUS FOR THAT SHOULD BE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS MAY POSE MORE HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD I-94 TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IOWA. THIS FRONT ALREADY HAD A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF IOWA THAT WAS SPREADING AND
EXPANDING ENE. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A 35-40 KT DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN IL TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND INTO SW MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
ALSO CROSS THIS AREA AT THE SAME TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH THIS FAVORABLE FORCING BELIEVE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. INSTABILITY MEANWHILE IS
QUITE LOW...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA...WE WILL BE MONITORING FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON JET DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SAG SE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE I-94
CORRIDOR...BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE EXTENDED
WITH A UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WITH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RAINS...BUT WE WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW
BUT MAY GET A DIURNAL BOOST GIVEN STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE 06Z SET OF FCSTS IS ON THE POTENTIAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
AREA. THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IA AND IL ARE MOVING
ESE AND ARE EXPECTED TO MISS THE AREA. WE DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN TERMINALS ALONG
I-94.
THE BEST TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE AFTER 12Z AND BEFORE 21Z. WE
EXPECT MVFR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG.
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DOWN SOUTH. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE CHC LOOKS TOO SMALL AT THIS TIME
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION IN THE FCST.
WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AND MOVE OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FAIRLY BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SYCAMORE
CREEK NEAR HOLT. THE RIVER LEVEL IS CURRENTLY HOVERING RIGHT AT
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THIS PRODUCES FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER, IN LANSING MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE, AND
SECTIONS OF EAST MT. HOPE ROAD. SEVERAL OTHER RIVER FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN AFFECT ACROSS THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO RIVER
BASINS.
A SURFACE LOW AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WNW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH WILL SERVE
TO SUPPRESS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. A QUARTER
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST PROBABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 DID SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OF COURSE. AT THIS POINT...STANDING WATER REMAINS
PRIMARILY ONLY IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS SUCH AS FIELDS. SEVERE STORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO
STORM DRAINS SHOULD FARE BETTER. THE DECLINE OF RIVER LEVELS MAY BE
BRIEFLY SLOWED...BUT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Shortwave will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night and the
surface front will sweep through the area finally bringing an end
to the rain. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in good agreement with
ending the precip across the area between 03-09Z Saturday (with
perhaps some lingering sprinkles as a vortmax or two moves across
the area). Saturday and Sunday still look cool and dry for the
most part...although guidance is now printing out some very light
QPF each afternoon as a couple of more shortwaves move across the
area into the base of the longwave trof. Gut feeling is that there
won`t be enough low level moisture to fuel precipitation, but it`s
something to keep an eye on. More substantial chances for
precipitation develop Sunday night as the low level jet turns back
to the southwest ahead of a clipper-type low allowing moisture
back in from the southeastern Plains. The trof over the eastern
CONUS remains entrenched through the medium range which hints a
temperatures near or a bit below normal into next week and
continuing chances for precipitation as shortwaves move across the
area in the northwest flow aloft.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through early Friday will be on convective trends.
Current thinking is that scattered storms will break out by late
this afternoon and could affect KCOU and the metro St. Louis
terminals. The KUIN terminal may end up too far north for this
activity. So included a VCTS group and KCOU and St. Louis sites
with a TEMPO group MVFR visbys with thunderstorms. Probably going
to be some kind of break overnight...though cannot totally rule
out thunderstorms anytime tonight. More widespread convective
activity is anticipated with an MCS which will likely travel
roughly west to east parallel to the I-70 corridor late tonight
and into early Friday morning. Behind this feature...MVFR ceilings
and potentially visibilities will remain along with a wind shift
to the northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Primary concern through early Friday will be on convective trends.
Current thinking is that scattered storms will break out by late
this afternoon and may affect the terminal. So included a VCTS
group along with a TEMPO group for MVFR visbys
with thunderstorms. Probably going to be some kind of break
overnight tonight...though cannot totally rule out thunderstorms
anytime. More widespread convective activity is anticipated with
an MCS which will likely travel roughly west to east parallel to
the I-70 corridor late tonight and into early Friday morning. Best
guess of timing of this feature for KSTL is early Friday morning
with lingering showers through about the noon hour. Behind this
feature...MVFR ceilings and potentially visibilities will remain
along with a wind shift to the northwest through Friday afternoon.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 73 78 64 / 50 70 80 60
Quincy 87 68 73 60 / 50 60 70 30
Columbia 93 70 76 61 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 71 80 64 / 50 60 80 70
Farmington 95 71 83 62 / 40 70 80 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox
MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
723 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Shortwave will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night and the
surface front will sweep through the area finally bringing an end
to the rain. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in good agreement with
ending the precip across the area between 03-09Z Saturday (with
perhaps some lingering sprinkles as a vortmax or two moves across
the area). Saturday and Sunday still look cool and dry for the
most part...although guidance is now printing out some very light
QPF each afternoon as a couple of more shortwaves move across the
area into the base of the longwave trof. Gut feeling is that there
won`t be enough low level moisture to fuel precipitation, but it`s
something to keep an eye on. More substantial chances for
precipitation develop Sunday night as the low level jet turns back
to the southwest ahead of a clipper-type low allowing moisture
back in from the southeastern Plains. The trof over the eastern
CONUS remains entrenched through the medium range which hints a
temperatures near or a bit below normal into next week and
continuing chances for precipitation as shortwaves move across the
area in the northwest flow aloft.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 720 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Intense convection that formed on the southwest periphery of the
overnight MCS and pounded parts of northeast MO has weakened
considerably over the past few hours. Only remaining active
elements are in a narrow W-E band from just SW of KUIN to near
MBY, and associated with the remnants of noctural low level jet.
Believe that this band will be dropping southeast at bit over the
next few hours while intensity diminishes with the weakening of
low level jet. Have included VCTS at both KCOU and STL Metro
TAFs for a few hours, but believe main corridor of activity will remain
north of I-70, with almost all of the convection diminishing in
the 15-16z time frame. Outside of the convection, VFR cigs aoa
4kft are expected through mid morning, and by afternoon have gone
with a warm sector "look" to TAF conditions, with scattered high-
based CU and gusty SW winds after morning outflow boundary erodes.
Storm threat should ramp up again late this afternoon near KUIN in
the vicnity of the cold front...with convection becoming much more
widespread during the overnight hours as low level jet once again
intensifies ahead of shortwave dropping through mid-Missouri
Valley. Obviously timing is a very rough first guess at this
point, but did try to emphasize more widespread/robust convection
when forcing of low level jet should be the greatest...primarily
after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect cigs in the 4-5kft range through mid
morning, with VCTS specified for several hours as the band of
convection currently over mid MO works a bit south and weakens.
Outflow boundary...which has worked its way into eastern Ozarks
and southern Illinois...should erode by mid morning, and set the
stage for fairly gust southwest winds by afternon, along with
scattered hi-based CU. Additional storms likely tonight, expecially
after 06z.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 74 79 65 / 50 60 70 60
Quincy 87 68 74 61 / 80 60 70 30
Columbia 93 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 80 63 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 72 79 65 / 50 60 70 70
Farmington 95 71 82 63 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox
MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
429 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Shortwave will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night and the
surface front will sweep through the area finally bringing an end
to the rain. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in good agreement with
ending the precip across the area between 03-09Z Saturday (with
perhaps some lingering sprinkles as a vortmax or two moves across
the area). Saturday and Sunday still look cool and dry for the
most part...although guidance is now printing out some very light
QPF each afternoon as a couple of more shortwaves move across the
area into the base of the longwave trof. Gut feeling is that there
won`t be enough low level moisture to fuel precipitation, but it`s
something to keep an eye on. More substantial chances for
precipitation develop Sunday night as the low level jet turns back
to the southwest ahead of a clipper-type low allowing moisture
back in from the southeastern Plains. The trof over the eastern
CONUS remains entrenched through the medium range which hints a
temperatures near or a bit below normal into next week and
continuing chances for precipitation as shortwaves move across the
area in the northwest flow aloft.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
The leading edge of a large NW-SE elonagated complex of thunderstorms
has moved out of Iowa into northeast MO and will continue tracking
southeast impacting KUIN for a good portion of the overnight hours.
Heavy rain and gusty winds and IFR conditions can be expected periodically
at the terminal. Present indications are that thunderstorms should
weaken and move to the east of the terminal between 12-14z. How
far south the storms may get is difficult to gage. Think they will
remain northeast of KCOU but the St. Louis area may be a close
call with the fringes and thus have added a VCTS in the 11-15z
time frame. After the morning activity, I am anticipating a lull
with VFR flight conditions until late this afternoon and early
this evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to
develop along an east-west front located across northern MO into
central IL. A very stormy night is expected in the vicinity of
this front with potential for significant impacts at many of the
terminals.
Specifics for KSTL:
Watching an elongated complex of thunderstorms currently stretching
from northeast MO into central IA, and tracking southeast. Whether
they impact KSTL is difficult to gage and think it will be a close
call with the fringes skirting the area, and thus have added a
VCTS in the 11-15z time frame. After the morning activity, I am
anticipating a lull with VFR flight conditions until early this
evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to develop
along an east-west front located across northern MO into central
IL. The storms should move east-southeast and there is potential
for a very stormy night with significant impacts at the terminal.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 74 79 65 / 50 60 70 60
Quincy 87 68 74 61 / 60 60 70 30
Columbia 93 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 80 63 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 72 79 65 / 50 60 70 70
Farmington 95 71 82 63 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Pike IL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2015
Frontal boundary to begin moving slowly south into forecast area
on Thursday. Will see several shortwaves move along boundary
through Friday night. Best chances of rain will be Thursday night
through Friday. Some concern about rainfall amounts with this
system, could see an inch or two with locally higher amounts
possible, will just depend on how fast or slow system moves
through. It appears to be a fairly progressive system onces in
starts moving through.
Precipitation will taper off Friday night and will see cooler and
drier weather for the weekend. Next chance for rain will be Sunday
night through Wednesday with several rounds expected once again on
active northwest flow aloft. Highs during the weekend will be in the
mid to upper 70s, then moderate a bit by Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
The leading edge of a large NW-SE elonagated complex of thunderstorms
has moved out of Iowa into northeast MO and will continue tracking
southeast impacting KUIN for a good portion of the overnight hours.
Heavy rain and gusty winds and IFR conditions can be expected periodically
at the terminal. Present indications are that thunderstorms should
weaken and move to the east of the terminal between 12-14z. How
far south the storms may get is difficult to gage. Think they will
remain northeast of KCOU but the St. Louis area may be a close
call with the fringes and thus have added a VCTS in the 11-15z
time frame. After the morning activity, I am anticipating a lull
with VFR flight conditions until late this afternoon and early
this evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to
develop along an east-west front located across northern MO into
central IL. A very stormy night is expected in the vicinity of
this front with potential for significant impacts at many of the
terminals.
Specifics for KSTL:
Watching an elongated complex of thunderstorms currently stretching
from northeast MO into central IA, and tracking southeast. Whether
they impact KSTL is difficult to gage and think it will be a close
call with the fringes skirting the area, and thus have added a
VCTS in the 11-15z time frame. After the morning activity, I am
anticipating a lull with VFR flight conditions until early this
evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to develop
along an east-west front located across northern MO into central
IL. The storms should move east-southeast and there is potential
for a very stormy night with significant impacts at the terminal.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 74 79 65 / 50 60 70 60
Quincy 87 68 74 61 / 60 60 70 30
Columbia 93 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 80 63 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 72 79 65 / 50 60 70 70
Farmington 95 71 82 63 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Pike IL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
945 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR TRENDS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS REMAINS LOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HRRR PAINTS
THIS AS A STATUS QUO FOR A FEW HOURS. BIGGER QUESTION FOR THE DAY
IS WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
SOME HEATING. BELIEVE THAT POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAILING
THIS MORNINGS WAVE MEANS CLOUD COVER NEVER FULLY GOES AWAY AND A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED CAPPING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD
TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED
TO DISCRETE STORMS GETTING STRONG. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
03Z SREF WHICH IS SHIFTING PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH
OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCED BY A
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TREND ALSO
SUPPORTS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WITH WESTERN SECTIONS BEING A BIT WARMER DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE.
MOISTURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER WESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 90
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY SKIES. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A VERY HOT WEEKEND AND EARLY
WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME INDICATIONS OF
HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY IN SEVERAL LOCATION.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE PERSISTS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED UP
INTO THE SYSTEM...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ADDED POPS TO THE
FORECAST...KEPT QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE OF ENERGY
HELP PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...GIVING US A BREAK FROM
THE THE EXTREME HEAT. THAT SAID...TEMPS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SEEMS TO GREATLY LIMIT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT. LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT VFR WEATHER
WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER 00 UTC. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 059/090 062/094 063/097 066/100 069/093 064/088
2/T 10/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
LVM 083 051/091 053/096 056/099 057/100 058/092 054/090
2/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/B
HDN 084 058/091 060/096 063/099 065/101 067/094 064/090
3/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 11/U
MLS 082 058/088 061/093 063/096 064/097 066/092 063/087
3/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 11/U
4BQ 079 056/085 058/091 061/093 062/096 065/092 062/086
6/T 31/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B 11/U
BHK 078 055/084 058/090 059/090 060/091 063/087 061/082
5/T 31/B 10/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 11/B
SHR 077 053/084 054/088 057/091 058/093 060/090 059/085
5/T 21/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
AT 08Z...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EXTREME SERN NEBR
THROUGH NWRN KS INTO NERN CO AND SRN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH ECTRL WY AND SWRN SD WITH A ASSOCIATED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN GILLETTE AND CASPER ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH PINE RIDGE SD ON THE EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO SCTRL MT. TEMPERATURES IN WRN
NEBR RANGE FROM 63 TO 66 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EXITING IDAHO INTO
WRN MT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SERN MT/NERN WY AND WRN SD BY 18Z. PRIOR TO
THIS...EXISTING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT H85 ACROSS NWRN
NEBR/SWRN SD AND NERN WY WILL KEEP CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
GOING THOUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEBR THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL INCREASE AND
EXPAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS WRN NEBR. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SINCE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS WRN NEBR. CORRESPONDING PWAT
VALUES TO INCREASE TO 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 00Z. 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 KTS THIS AFTN AS 0-6KM
MUCAPES RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NW OF VALENTINE
THROUGH OSHKOSH. HIGHS FCST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN NEBR ARE FORECAST TO CONGEAL
INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE DROP
SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND 03Z SREF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. LIKELY POPS WEST OF HWY
183 THIS EVENING...THEN POPS DECREASE FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
GENERALLY WEST OF ANW THROUGH BBW. LOWS TO RANGE FROM 56 TO 62.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FRIDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWEST FLOW. FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEPARTING
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING FROM NW TO SE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE STORM TRACK GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THUS A DRY AND SEASONAL TO SEASONALLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE THE RIDGE
WITH A COOL FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES...BACK INTO THE 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF IS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAP AND GFS. THE
NAM INDICATES VERY LOW CIGS...PERHAPS FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z. VFR SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD BY 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING BUT SO WHAT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
BE FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO REACH HIGHWAY 61 AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS FAVORABLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS.
ROSCOE AND NORTH PLATTE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN FLOOD
STAGE AND ACTION STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FLOOD ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE ELEVATED ABOVE
ACTION STAGE AT LISCO WHILE REMAINING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
LEWELLEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AREAS OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE. FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE
PAST 72 HOURS WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
CONUS...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND OUTFLOW FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT NOW NEAR THE
KS/NE BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
NOTED AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS
BEGUN TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
HAVE ALSO FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...A FEW STORMS MAY MAKE IT
INTO OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING MOST MODELS SHOW PRECIP CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD WHERE THE
LLJ MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
THE NORTH OF A FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN INITIATE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
40+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 61 IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE
FLOW...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADEQUATE BULK
SHEAR SHOULD HELP STORMS ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH FLOW
ALOFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOUTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP PERIOD
DRY AT THIS TIME AS NO REAL DEFINED UPPER WAVE EVIDENT WITHIN FLOW
ALOFT. A FAIRLY WARM PERIOD AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF IS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAP AND GFS. THE
NAM INDICATES VERY LOW CIGS...PERHAPS FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z. VFR SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
BY 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING BUT SO WHAT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE
FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO REACH HIGHWAY 61 AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS FAVORABLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPTATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER 00Z NAM12
NOT AS CONVINCING FOR KEEPING THE WATCH...INDICATING LESS QPF.
OTHERWISE TWEAKED THE EAST CANYON WINDS DOWNWARD WITH CONVECTION
OCCURRING AND MOVING SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SRN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORED AREAS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM BTWN
0Z-3Z...THEN CENTRAL AREAS BTWN 3Z-6Z. WET ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND IMPACT KABQ BTWN
APPROXIMATELY 03Z- 09Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE. A
LATER START TO CONVECTION ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THANKS TO THE BACK DOOR FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE FROM TODAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY...BUT
WILL RAMP BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NUDGED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
MORNING...AND HAS BEEN STUCK THERE SINCE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT
MAY BE A FEW HOURS YET UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT SHOULD OCCUR BY 02-03Z.
WHEN THAT DOES OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO THE FRONTS EARLY ARRIVAL...IT HAS TAKEN A BIT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SINCE AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES HAVE NOT
YET REACHED THERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTH OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HRRR SHOWS STORMS
FURTHER EAST...BUT THE NAM MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS
AND STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THEM SLOWLY SOUTH...IF NOT SW. MOISTURE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON SATURDAY...AND FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. GIVEN HOW WARM IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
PENDING HOW MODELS TREND TONIGHT...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
THE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS PWATS RAISE TO ABOUT 1 INCH OR BETTER ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RELIEF STILL LOOKS TO COME ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR ROUNDS THE
UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOME. COULD SEE A FEW MORE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS THOUGH
VS MAINLY RAIN.
MODELS NOW SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT/WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...
RATHER THAN THURSDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEDNESDAY BEING A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAT THOUGHT YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO IN NW
FLOW. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES. STAY
TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW MOVING INCREASING FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE THE LEAST ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN
STORM ACTIVITY AND UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH MOISTURE LATER NEXT WEEK.
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS BECAUSE OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH/WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE
CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TIMING FOR THE GAP
WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR...INCREASING FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TONIGHT...THEN EXPANDING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY SATURDAY INCREASING WET THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHERLY FOR THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY TUESDAY....STORMS WILL DOWNTREND A BIT BECAUSE OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS DRIER TREND WILL NOT
ELIMINATE STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY THURSDAY
DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-523-526-528-529-532-533-537>539.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SRN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORED AREAS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM BTWN
0Z-3Z...THEN CENTRAL AREAS BTWN 3Z-6Z. WET ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND IMPACT KABQ BTWN
APPROXIMATELY 03Z- 09Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE. A
LATER START TO CONVECTION ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THANKS TO THE BACK DOOR FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE FROM TODAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY...BUT
WILL RAMP BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NUDGED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
MORNING...AND HAS BEEN STUCK THERE SINCE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT
MAY BE A FEW HOURS YET UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT SHOULD OCCUR BY 02-03Z.
WHEN THAT DOES OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO THE FRONTS EARLY ARRIVAL...IT HAS TAKEN A BIT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SINCE AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES HAVE NOT
YET REACHED THERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTH OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HRRR SHOWS STORMS
FURTHER EAST...BUT THE NAM MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS
AND STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THEM SLOWLY SOUTH...IF NOT SW. MOISTURE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON SATURDAY...AND FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. GIVEN HOW WARM IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
PENDING HOW MODELS TREND TONIGHT...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
THE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS PWATS RAISE TO ABOUT 1 INCH OR BETTER ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RELIEF STILL LOOKS TO COME ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR ROUNDS THE
UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOME. COULD SEE A FEW MORE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS THOUGH
VS MAINLY RAIN.
MODELS NOW SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT/WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...
RATHER THAN THURSDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEDNESDAY BEING A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAT THOUGHT YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO IN NW
FLOW. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES. STAY
TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW MOVING INCREASING FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE THE LEAST ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN
STORM ACTIVITY AND UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH MOISTURE LATER NEXT WEEK.
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS BECAUSE OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH/WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE
CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TIMING FOR THE GAP
WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR...INCREASING FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TONIGHT...THEN EXPANDING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY SATURDAY INCREASING WET THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHERLY FOR THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY TUESDAY....STORMS WILL DOWNTREND A BIT BECAUSE OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS DRIER TREND WILL NOT
ELIMINATE STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY THURSDAY
DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-523-526-528-529-532-533-537>539.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
317 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...PERHAPS RESULTING IN AN EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY
THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES. A DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT AND
MOISTURE SURGE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE STORMS
TOWARD THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST
ENOUGH...AND HAVE BEEN PULSEY ENOUGH...TO NOT CAUSE TOO MANY WATER
ISSUES.
HI-RES MODELS SHOWING STORMS FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR THE E
NM/E CO BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. APPEARS THAT
STORMS MAY GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED INTO A CLUSTER...FORMING A COLD
POOL...WITH STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRACES THE
STORMS. HRRR KEEPS STORMS TOGETHER AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSWELL...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP FALLING APART SHORT OF THERE.
NONETHELESS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE SMALL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOSING INTO NE NM ATTM SHOULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE. DEPENDING ON IF STORMS FIRE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANDIAS...AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...COULD SEE A PRETTY
STRONG...BUT SHORT-LIVED...EAST WIND INTO THE RGV.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THOUGH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW...A BACK DOOR
FRONT...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY AIDED... WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT...AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
DAY AFTER THE FRONT NUDGES UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IGNITING
STORMS...AND THOSE STORMS SHOULD TRAVEL S OR SE-WARD OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY-MID AFTN...SPILLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM AS WELL...PERHAPS WITH BETTER COVERAGE THAN TODAY. EAST
CANYON WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE PRETTY STRONG.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PWATS LIKELY ABOVE 1 INCH AREAWIDE/...
NORTH TO SOUTH STEERING FLOW...AND LOW LEVEL S TO SELY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE PERIOD MIGHT BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT.
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN
IS A CERTAINTY. THIS SPELLS A RECIPE FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE MORE OF THE SAME...THOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ALSO NOSE INTO
NE NM AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... DRIER AIR LOOKS TO CIRCLE AROUND THE
HIGH AND OVER NM. THOUGH THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN TO SEE SOME ACTION.
ACTIVITY RAMPS BACK UP ON THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR
FRONT REPLENISHING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT INDICATIONS
IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THURS...AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT...OR PERHAPS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE ON THE 4TH OF JULY. LOOKS LIKE MOTHER NATURE
WILL PROVIDE HER OWN FIREWORKS AGAIN THIS YEAR.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL BIG CHANGES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS SURGE WILL KICK OFF
A WET PHASE TO THE MONSOON PERIOD.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIT AND MISS STORMS CONTAINING WETTING
RAIN WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BLEED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE
TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SWEEP UNDERNEATH
AND REENERGIZE MOISTURE SUPPLIES WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER. A
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
PUSH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. WETTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT STILL BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND BUT
NOT AS STRONG COMPARED TO A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND COULD
POSSIBLY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH THE MOISTURE LOST EARLIER IN THE WAY AND
INCREASE WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE THE LOWEST DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO
REDUCED MIXING HEIGHTS...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TRANSPORT
WINDS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS FIRING UP EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. THEY WILL INITIALLY FAVOR
THE MOUNTAINS BUT EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF THE MTNS AND AFFECT THE
LOWLANDS. THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE BAND OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD AND TRAVELING
SOUTH/WESTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. TERMINAL
SITES SUCH AS LVS/TCC/ROW/SAF/ABQ/AEG SHOULD BE IMPACTED. GUP AND
FMN ALSO HAVE THE CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY VCTS OR VCSH BUT
CHOSE VCSH. COULD SEE SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
THE EAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DUE TO PASSING STRONGER STORMS. SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE PAST 06Z ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THUS
IMPACTING ROW. A STRONG EAST WIND IS POSSIBLE AT ABQ THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT SPEEDS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. CAN READJUST A
LITTLE LATER.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 97 64 94 / 0 5 10 20
DULCE........................... 45 89 51 85 / 10 20 30 50
CUBA............................ 48 86 52 80 / 30 40 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 51 92 57 90 / 5 20 10 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 90 57 85 / 20 50 40 50
GRANTS.......................... 53 90 59 87 / 20 30 30 60
QUEMADO......................... 54 90 58 86 / 30 30 40 70
GLENWOOD........................ 58 92 58 89 / 40 40 40 50
CHAMA........................... 47 80 48 80 / 30 60 40 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 86 60 81 / 50 60 50 60
PECOS........................... 57 81 57 76 / 60 70 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 77 52 74 / 30 70 60 50
RED RIVER....................... 43 70 45 65 / 50 70 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 73 47 69 / 50 70 70 70
TAOS............................ 49 84 52 79 / 20 60 50 40
MORA............................ 52 77 53 73 / 50 60 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 57 92 58 86 / 20 50 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 60 83 61 80 / 30 70 60 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 87 60 83 / 30 60 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 90 67 87 / 40 50 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 92 69 88 / 30 40 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 94 66 90 / 30 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 93 68 89 / 30 30 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 94 66 90 / 20 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 94 67 90 / 40 30 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 67 96 67 91 / 30 30 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 87 59 82 / 50 60 70 50
TIJERAS......................... 59 89 61 85 / 50 60 60 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 88 54 83 / 50 50 60 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 83 57 78 / 70 60 60 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 59 81 / 50 40 70 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 89 61 85 / 30 30 50 50
RUIDOSO......................... 56 81 55 77 / 40 50 60 60
CAPULIN......................... 59 79 56 77 / 40 50 60 30
RATON........................... 54 80 55 80 / 40 50 70 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 83 57 80 / 40 50 70 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 80 53 76 / 60 50 70 60
CLAYTON......................... 63 82 60 81 / 40 30 50 20
ROY............................. 59 82 59 78 / 40 50 70 30
CONCHAS......................... 66 90 64 85 / 60 40 60 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 90 63 85 / 60 40 60 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 90 64 86 / 50 30 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 63 88 62 82 / 50 40 50 20
PORTALES........................ 65 90 65 83 / 50 40 50 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 91 65 85 / 50 40 60 30
ROSWELL......................... 67 95 68 87 / 30 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 61 90 61 82 / 50 30 60 40
ELK............................. 58 82 59 75 / 50 40 60 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH SEVERAL
RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL BY SUNDAY. ALSO...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS DROPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN CLINTON/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK AS OF 700 PM, AND CARRIED JUST AN OUTSIDE/ISOLATED
SHOT OF A BRIEF SHOWER IN THESE HOURS THROUGH 9 PM IN CLOSE LINE
WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
NIGHT EXPECTED. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. WEAK 5H VORT IN THE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA
THIS EVENING...AND PRODUCE A MID LVL CLOUD DECK AND MAYBE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER. EXPECT LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS...ALONG
WITH WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH
SOME CLOUDS...BUT WL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM THE L/M 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 40S/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH DEEP FULL LATITUDE WINTER- TYPE TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LARGE SCALE RIDGE OUT WEST. POTENT S/W
ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL DEEPEN TROF WITH A CLOSED
5H/7H CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z
SATURDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK NE INTO WESTERN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST 85H JET OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS WILL
ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA...ALONG WITH ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE TRRN. THE NAEFS GEFS SHOWS THE U COMPONENT OF
THE 85H JET 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL LIFTING ACROSS OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...INDICATING THE STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF JET AND
ASSOCIATED ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A STRONG
BAND OF 850 TO 700 FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED UVVS FIELDS LIFTING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z SATURDAY AND 15Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...EXPECT QPF FIELDS TO BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.0"
WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 0.75 TO 1.50" CHAMPLAIN/SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS TO OVER 2.0 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN DACKS AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS MTNS IN VT. HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BTWN 02Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH AUSABLE LIKELY
REACHING ACTION STAGE ON SUNDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING 998MB LOW PRES OVER NW PA AND
DEPARTING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV4 SHOWS AN 85H JET OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS
LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH A 925MB JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS...AS
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. THE HEIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS BELOW RIDGE TOP
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE INVERSION LEVEL...SO MIXING WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM RUTLAND TO EAST MIDDLEBURY TO NASHVILLE TO
MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. IF BETTER MIXING IS
INDICATING WITH LATER MODELS...A WIND ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT WILL IMPACT OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE NORTHERN NY WILL STAY IN THE COMMA HEAD POSITION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED...HELPING TO CREATE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER QUICKLY
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE WITH STEADIER PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE BTWN A 0.25
AND 0.50 WITH THIS PRECIP TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S MTNS TO NEAR 60F SLV WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAYBE A FEW READING NEAR 70F FROM DOWNSLOPE WARMING
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. SYSTEM WL SLOWLY START PULLING AWAY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE TRRN FROM
UPSLOPE FLW. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FOR WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FRIDAY AS ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW BRINGS SHOWERS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW THE 1000 MB LOW THAT THE ECMWF HAS IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THE ECMWF MODEL IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH A LOW THAT DEEP. GFS MODEL HOLDS
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD ON TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...PER THE LATEST SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG/BR AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK. AS SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...HIGH CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND THICKENS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SLK/RUT AFTER 21Z...AND THEN
EVENTUALLY ALL OTHER SITES...BUT NOT UNTIL 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT MPV AND POSSIBLY
SLK. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DENSITY QUESTIONABLE WITH DRIER LOW
LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL SHOW WITH
TEMPOS FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES 07Z-11Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST 5 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS).
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SHOWERS.
12Z MONDAY-12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.
12Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 740 PM EDT FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
TERRAIN...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.0
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/NORTHEASTERN VT,
0.75 TO 1.50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND OVER 2.0 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED
RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK WATERSHEDS FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...JMG/TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. THEN AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA AT 1130Z.
ANALYSIS OF THE 06Z H5/7 HGT FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE OUR AREA WILL
NOT PICK UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM...THE
SYSTEMS EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA AND THICKEN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL NOT BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE TO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
JET INDUCED LIFT UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A 100KT JET OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NUISANCE SHOWER OVER
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND GENESEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. PARTS
OF THE NORMALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY COULD TICKLE 80.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH THE GREAT EAST IMPROVEMENT COMING NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT
TO SEA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SPREADS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD YIELD A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY TO START OFF THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +9C TO +12C LARGELY YIELDING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...WHERE THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER.
AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL GO MARKEDLY DOWNHILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF
THIS TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ON ITS EASTERN
FLANK...AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNDER THIS REGIME...OUR WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WET
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RESULTING LOWER/UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ACT TO PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT
GENERATED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT/VERY EARLY SATURDAY... BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION BETWEEN THE REST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WHILE
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION IN CONCERT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
LEVEL JET...HOWEVER LIGHTER RAINS SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS SET UP AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND AS THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION ALOFT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL NOT REALLY BEGIN
TO DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FINALLY
PROGGED TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA.
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE RETAINED OUR CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM CONTINUITY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK TO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OWING TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OF A
GENERAL NORTHERLY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
CORE OF THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE
COLLECTIVELY SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE AS MUCH AS ONE AND
A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COURSE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE BULK OF THIS LIKELY FALLING OVER A
36-48 HOUR PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND REMAINING NON-
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA...UNLESS THE BULK OF THE RAIN
ULTIMATELY FALLS WITHIN A SUBSTANTIALLY SHORTER TIME FRAME THAN
THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WITH YET ANOTHER /ALBEIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON OUR REGION AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR...VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THOUGH...AS MAINLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY
THINNING OUT FROM THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THIN ACROSS THE SRN TIER THOUGH...THEY SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LK ONTARIO)...BUT MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...CHURCH/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
428 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. THEN AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS AT 08Z.
ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z H5/7 HGT FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE OUR AREA WILL
NOT PICK UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM...THE
SYSTEMS EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA AND THICKEN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL NOT BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE TO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
JET INDUCED LIFT UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A 100KT JET OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NUISANCE SHOWER OVER
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND GENESEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. PARTS
OF THE NORMALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY COULD TICKLE 80.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH THE GREAT EAST IMPROVEMENT COMING NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT
TO SEA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SPREADS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD YIELD A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY TO START OFF THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +9C TO +12C LARGELY YIELDING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...WHERE THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER.
AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL GO MARKEDLY DOWNHILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF
THIS TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ON ITS EASTERN
FLANK...AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNDER THIS REGIME...OUR WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WET
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RESULTING LOWER/UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ACT TO PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT
GENERATED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT/VERY EARLY SATURDAY... BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION BETWEEN THE REST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WHILE
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION IN CONCERT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
LEVEL JET...HOWEVER LIGHTER RAINS SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS SET UP AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND AS THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION ALOFT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL NOT REALLY BEGIN
TO DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FINALLY
PROGGED TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA.
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE RETAINED OUR CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM CONTINUITY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK TO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OWING TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OF A
GENERAL NORTHERLY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
CORE OF THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE
COLLECTIVELY SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE AS MUCH AS ONE AND
A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COURSE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE BULK OF THIS LIKELY FALLING OVER A
36-48 HOUR PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND REMAINING NON-
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA...UNLESS THE BULK OF THE RAIN
ULTIMATELY FALLS WITHIN A SUBSTANTIALLY SHORTER TIME FRAME THAN
THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WITH YET ANOTHER /ALBEIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON OUR REGION AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR...VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THOUGH...AS MAINLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY
THINNING OUT FROM THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LK ONTARIO)...BUT MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...CHURCH/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
232 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS CLOUDS THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE.
AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
LATER TODAY...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE MID WEST. A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AT 06Z
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. ANALYSIS OF
THE 00Z H5/7 HGT FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL TRACK JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED
THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE OUR AREA WILL
NOT PICK UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM...THE
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THICKEN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL NOT BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE TO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME JET INDUCED LIFT UNDER
THE RR QUAD OF A 100KT JET OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NUISANCE SHOWER OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND GENESEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES...WITH ONLY MINIMAL CLEARING
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
FRIDAY A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A DRY PUSH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE IMPROVEMENT
SEEN IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
IMPROVED SKY COVER INTO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY RANGE. THE
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +12C WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE JUNE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A WET WEEKEND. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE LAST COUPLE DETERMINISTIC RUNS GIVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF WESTERN
NY... WITH THE A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
WEST. THIS SET UP WILL YIELD A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT PLACES
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT... AND ALONG/NORTH
OF SHARPLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL EVOLVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. EXPECT SYNOPTIC ASCENT / RAINFALL TO EVOLVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN NY... BUT CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST BACK ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH / VORT ADVECTION EVOLVING OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHERLY AND BECOMING UPSLOPE. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW / 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO +6C / AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS... HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...STIFF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY MAKING THE COOL AND WET
WEATHER FEEL EVEN MORE RAW THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR...VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THOUGH...AS MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LK ONTARIO).
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
THINGS HAVING A REALLY HARD TIME GETTING GOING THIS AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS WAVE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE VA
BORDER IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALREADY HEAD SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD BY 18Z
WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO HAPPENING AT THIS POINT AND RAP MODEL
VORTICITY NOW SHOWS ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKING AT VARIOUS PARAMETERS ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL THINGS STILL GOING WELL
FOR THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING INCREASING
SHEAR FROM THE NORTH...DECENT INSTABILITY...AND UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE PROBLEM WE MAY HAVE HOWEVER...IS GETTING
THINGS TO LINE UP. WHILE SHEAR IS BEST IN THE NORTH...DCAPE IS BEST
IN THE SOUTH. WHILE THE BEST VORTICITY WOULD BE IN THE
NORTHEAST...THE STRONGEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ANY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT AND A POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY. SURFACE OBS CURRENTLY SHOW 80S IN THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOW 90S ACROSS THE US 64 CORRIDOR BUT MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
HERE ARE THE TAKEAWAYS. FIRST...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL
POSSIBLE AND SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUMULUS FIELD ON
SATELLITE SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE US 64
CORRIDOR. MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE FROM WIND AND POTENTIALLY SOME
HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT AS WELL AS FLOODING IN ANY SLOW MOVING OR
TRAINING CELLS. TIMING WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS COULD BRING A ROUND OF
CONVECTION INTO THE TRIAD AROUND 6Z AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA BY 9Z. AFTER THIS MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
CENTRAL NC IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE
LOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT
HAPPENING...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHAT WILL START AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO CLUSTERS AND
SMALL LINE SEGMENTS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS FORCING FROM
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. BY EVENING...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUPPORTING A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS...SECONDARY THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY LIKELY BUT URBAN AREAS AND PLACES WHERE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WET COULD BECOME SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE CONVECTION STARTING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 18Z...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD
AROUND 00Z ON SUNDAY WITH THE TRIANGLE AFFECTED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 6Z ON SUNDAY. WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTH. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE
TRIAD MOST LIKELY IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWFA SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH LEE SURFACE TROF SETTING UP
THE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BEGIN THE INEVITABLE
CREEP UPWARDS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AFTER MORNING LOWS
FROM 60 TO 65. WARMING CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING.
A SECOND FRONT NUDGES SOUTH AND STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING US WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF CONVECTION...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OTHER THAN COVERAGE
WHICH WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A SHADE WARMER THAN
NORMAL...UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM FRIDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KFAY
TERMINAL AS OF 00Z...WITH OTHER SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NC. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... FROM
APPROX THE KINT TO KFAY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT A LULL IN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE...BEST WHERE
PRECIP HAS OCCURRED...FOR SOME REDUCED CIGS AND VISBYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A BREAK IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER) SATURDAY AFT IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY IN THE EAST. -RAH
LOOKING AHEAD: CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKING VERY NICE WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. -ELLIS
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS
CLIMATE...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 PM FRI...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
EFFECT EASTERN SECTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES IN FORECAST AREA AND
WATERS.
AS OF 410 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361 IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.
HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MHX
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC
LATER THIS EVENING. 12Z NAM DOES NOT INDICATE THE MCS FEATURE BUT
INDICATES DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. WE HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMP
ACROSS MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BUT LACK A TRIGGER AND ALSO SUFFER
FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE/SQUALL LINE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE OBX. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER
19-20Z DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE FRONT, SEABREEZE, AND LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TRIED TO BETTER PINPOINT
TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TRENDED POPS A BIT HIGHER
FOR THE HWY 64 AND NORTH AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
RAH CWA SLOWLY PUSHING EAST BUT STRUGGLING TO SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEABREEZE JUST YET. NUCAPS SOUNDINGS MIRROR THE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC NOTED IN THE SPC
MESOANALYSES, WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG. WEAK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, TO 35-45 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN INCREASE WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH TEMPS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TRICKY DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFTING MECHANISMS. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING, THEN LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT AS
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY. A MOIST/MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. A VORTMAX/SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE EASTERN NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES, NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO (GIVEN AN
IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILE). MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90S INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH
TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...WET WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SOME DRIER MORE
COMFORTABLE DAYS. THREAT OF RAIN RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
GULF MOISTURE FEED PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING THE COAST
DURING SUNDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST DURING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LEADING TO
A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S/LOW 70S
FOR LOWS...BEFORE WARMING BACK WELL INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND`S
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AS HEIGHTS LOWER. COUPLED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 727 PM FRI...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND
HATTERAS TO MOUNT OLIVE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER
NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN CHANCES OF STORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NUMEROUS. VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS DOWNSLOPING DRIER AIR MOVES
IN WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF LATE DAY MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 620 PM FRI...MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OREGON INLET WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
2 TO 3 FEET NORTH OF IT. BOUNDARY EXPECT TO DROP A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 10PM WITH
ASSOCIATED STORMS.
PREV DISC...AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD ACT TO DIMINISH
THE SW GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EXPECT THE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE EASTERN NC WATERS. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE, BUILDING SEAS 5-8 FT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30
KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6-9 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH HEDGED
CLOSER TO SWAN/NWPS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS GIVEN ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE IN NEAR SHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GRADIENT
BEHIND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS A COLD FRONT EASES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
BECOME MORE W/NW BY LATE SUNDAY THEN NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT WITH A S/SW
WIND FLOW RESUMING MONDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
311 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TODAY WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT WE HAVE A LOT OF
VERY GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE BUT WHETHER OR NOT
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST AND REPRESENTS WHAT WE THINK
SHOULD HAPPEN. NAMELY...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHAT DOES GO UP HAS THE CHANCE TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA BORDER AND WILL HELP SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ENHANCED HELICITY. ANOTHER
VARIABLE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AT PEAK HEATING. RIGHT NOW
IT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRIAD LESS LIKELY. AGAIN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRIANGLE WILL SEE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AS FAR AS HYDROLOGY
IS CONCERNED...AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROMPTED
SOME FLOODING NEAR THE TRIAD. FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PROMPT SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR EVEN FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. -ELLIS
LOOK FOR TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT STORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES
PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
WITH SOME BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD...PRECIP SHOULD
BE AT A MINIMUM DURING THE DAY (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS). HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES DURING
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THEREFORE A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (LIKELY OUR LAST FOR THIS
CURRENT HEAT WAVE)...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A HEAT ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SINCE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LIMITING
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. REGARDLESS...MODELS PROG MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY
THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOSTLY MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ACTUALLY BEING BELOW NORMAL. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS SET
UP...ANY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION
BUT IN GENERAL...KRWI AND KFAY WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD END UP
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT KRWI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TODAY WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT WE HAVE A LOT OF
VERY GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE BUT WHETHER OR NOT
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST AND REPRESENTS WHAT WE THINK
SHOULD HAPPEN. NAMELY...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHAT DOES GO UP HAS THE CHANCE TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA BORDER AND WILL HELP SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ENHANCED HELICITY. ANOTHER
VARIABLE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AT PEAK HEATING. RIGHT NOW
IT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRIAD LESS LIKELY. AGAIN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRIANGLE WILL SEE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AS FAR AS HYDROLOGY
IS CONCERNED...AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROMPTED
SOME FLOODING NEAR THE TRIAD. FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PROMPT SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR EVEN FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. -ELLIS
LOOK FOR TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT STORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES
PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION
BUT IN GENERAL...KRWI AND KFAY WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD END UP
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT KRWI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
712 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KRDU. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND BACK TO KGSO AND KINT AND POSSIBLY MOVE
INTO KRWI AND KFAY LATER THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
IN THE 17Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. THUS... HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI TAF FOR NOW.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
420 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NC FRIDAY WILL GET ABSORBED
BY THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES NE
FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL NY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILDING/ADVECTING IN BEHIND
IT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE
AFT/EVE HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS WILL DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
80S...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK IN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...
A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO POP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... WHERE MLCAPE IS STILL IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH IS LOW. DCAPE ALSO REMAINS VERY
HIGH...UPWARDS OF 1200 J/KG...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
IS STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN
RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RAP SHOWS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...BUT
THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LOW... HOWEVER. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND A FEW
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD A LITTLE...IT WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA AND RETREAT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN OPEN UP
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO CONVECTION WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z BUT MORE PROMINENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
FLOW BACK NORTHWARD. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS WITH WEAK HELICITY AT LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS UP TO 6 KM DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PW
APPROACHING 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING
THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW THAT COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...INDICATING THAT
HAIL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. INVERTED V SIGNATURES AND A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z SUGGEST THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH. IN
ADDITION...WHILE MOST OF THE JET SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...A STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE VA BORDER
AFTER 00Z WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT TO ANY PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION AND
INCREASE HELICITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO BUT MITIGATING THIS THREAT IS THE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
WILL SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY AFT/EVE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO BE STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NC FRIDAY WILL GET ABSORBED
BY THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES NE
FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL NY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILDING/ADVECTING IN BEHIND
IT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE
AFT/EVE HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES: FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAYS...HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MID 80S...BEFORE REBOUNDING
BACK IN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BEHAVE
SIMILARLY...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
FRIDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING AS NAM PROJECTED MLCAPE IS
AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 30KTS...NOT
SHABBY FOR LATE JUNE (THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...CAPE IN THE 1500-
2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE). THIS SUGGEST
A CHANCE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...RAH/WSS
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
919 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
REMOVED POPS SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA BACK NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALL EVENING AS THEY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO LEFT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SCALED BACK ON POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONFINED POPS TO THE MORE DENSE CU FIELDS...SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...ALSO WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE AT. OTHERWISE UPDATES WERE
MINOR FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND KMOT TONIGHT. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SCALED BACK ON POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONFINED POPS TO THE MORE DENSE CU FIELDS...SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...ALSO WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE AT. OTHERWISE UPDATES WERE
MINOR FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND KMOT TONIGHT. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPLEX TRAIN OF MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PARADING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE DAKOTAS. ANY OF
THESE SHORTWAVES HAS SUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO INITIATE
CONVECTION...AND RADAR IMAGERY AT 1 PM CDT CONFIRMED THAT THERE IS
ALSO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THUS FAR...THERE IS STILL GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FURTHER...12 UTC HIRES ARW/NMM AND THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED ON ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
UPDATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW ISOLATED
STORMS THAT RECENTLY POPPED UP ON RADAR. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
EXPANDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE A
GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST...SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TO LIKELY. THIS LINES UP FAIRLY WILL WITH THE MARGINAL
OUTLOOK SHOWN BY SPC...WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WRF/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING (COLD FRONT...SURFACE LOW ETC.). FORECAST
CAPE/SHEAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE
THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LIKELY WON`T SEE
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS AS CAPE/SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
BETTER DOWN THERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO BRING AN END TO THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS ON SATURDAY...AS A
VARIETY OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90
ON SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WEST DOMINATING THE PATTERN BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. POTENT SHORT WAVE BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND
APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PATTERN THEN STAYS ACTIVE THROUGH MID- WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAKE MANAGING
TAFS DIFFICULT. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL TO BLANKET
EACH SITE...SO SHORT-FUSED UPDATES WILL BE USED TO INDICATE THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR
KDIK BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
UPDATE ADDRESSES AFTN CONVECTION POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL BE WIDELY
ISOLATED AND THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH EAST AS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVES CROSS OUT OF MANITOBA. DEW POINTS AROUND 60 F WILL PROVIDE
SOME WEAK CAPE NEAR PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
HAS DECREASED 35 KT BULK SHEAR TO NEAR ZERO THIS AFTN. ANY
CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF WHAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SHOULD BE DRY BY
02Z TO 03Z. ALSO LOOKING AT FOG POTENTIAL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION IN THE FAR EAST FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR SHOWING CIN ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTN. SHEAR TODAY IS WEAK...WITH THE
STRONGEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AT AROUND 35 KTS. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE MID AFTN CONVECTION STARTING AND
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WESTERN ZONES UNTIL 23Z. WE DO HAVE MID 50S
DEW POINTS BUT WILL NEED TIME FOR CIN TO ERODE. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
BE DRY BY AROUND 04Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG IN SPOTS IN NW MN. WEBCAMS SHOWS NEARLY
ALL SITES THOUGH SUNNY SO FOG IS INDEED PATCHY. IT WILL BURN OFF
BEFORE 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ENOUGH SFC HEATING OF THE DAY TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TO FORM CUMULUS IN THE AFTN. WILL NOT HAVE
THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT MU CAPES NR 1000
J/KG (MAINLY IN NW MN) SHOULD GENERATE A COUPLE OF STORMS. BEST
CHC IS IN NW MN WHERE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
AFTN-EVE. ANOTHER AREA IS MORE WRN-S CNTRL ND. PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH NW MN APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SUMMER BLAH PATTERN IS NOW HERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG IT...MORE SO IN
NRN RRV INTO NW MN CLOSER TO 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MU
CAPES (1500 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR (40-55 KTS) HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD STRONG OR SVR STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
SPC DAY 3 HAS AREA IN MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER WAVE
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM| CDT THU JUN 25 2015
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED LOWER
LEVEL CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. UNSURE ABOUT POTENTIAL FOG COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR SHOWING CIN ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTN. SHEAR TODAY IS WEAK...WITH THE
STRONGEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AT AROUND 35 KTS. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE MID AFTN CONVECTION STARTING AND
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WESTERN ZONES UNTIL 23Z. WE DO HAVE MID 50S
DEW POINTS BUT WILL NEED TIME FOR CIN TO ERODE. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
BE DRY BY AROUND 04Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG IN SPOTS IN NW MN. WEBCAMS SHOWS NEARLY
ALL SITES THOUGH SUNNY SO FOG IS INDEED PATCHY. IT WILL BURN OFF
BEFORE 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ENOUGH SFC HEATING OF THE DAY TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TO FORM CUMULUS IN THE AFTN. WILL NOT HAVE
THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT MU CAPES NR 1000
J/KG (MAINLY IN NW MN) SHOULD GENERATE A COUPLE OF STORMS. BEST
CHC IS IN NW MN WHERE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
AFTN-EVE. ANOTHER AREA IS MORE WRN-S CNTRL ND. PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH NW MN APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SUMMER BLAH PATTERN IS NOW HERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG IT...MORE SO IN
NRN RRV INTO NW MN CLOSER TO 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MU
CAPES (1500 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR (40-55 KTS) HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD STRONG OR SVR STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
SPC DAY 3 HAS AREA IN MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER WAVE
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GROUND FOG PRESENT AT FARGO AND BEMIDJI AIRPORTS. AS USUAL TIMING
OF IMPROVEMENT IS CHALLENGING...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND FROM THE
FACT IT IS SHALLOW AND PATCHY DO EXPECT FAST IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
12Z-14Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE A FEW CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH CUMULUS
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ALL DAY. ISOLD TSTM PSBL THIS AFTN/EVE WITH
BEST CHC IN NW MN. BUT COVERAGE AND CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN A
SPECIFIC TAF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AROUND ZERO AND WINDS
WILL BE NEARLY CALM. LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE DIURNAL COOLING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING PRODUCED FUNNEL CLOUDS EARLIER
AND NOW LARGE HAIL. LEFT MOVER HAS BEEN A THORN THE LAST HOUR OR
SO NEAR BEULAH AND HAZEN WHERE THE LARGE HAIL WAS PRODUCED WITHIN
THE PAST HALF HOUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF
SUNDOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD NOW THROUGH
06Z. A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM SOUTHEAST YET THIS
EVENING AS WELL. WENT DRY AND MAINTAINED FOG OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY WITH CHANCES DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC...AND A CONSENSUS OF THE 20-22
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS...DECREASED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ADDED A
MENTION OF FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TOMORROW.
QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE 12 UTC MODEL CYCLE GREATLY DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...MOVES INTO
THE DAKOTAS. IN FACT...THE 12 UTC NAM/GEM REGIONAL ARE THE TWO
MOST INSISTENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE...AND THEY DO NOT
INITIATE UNTIL AFTER NOON TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ADJUST THE
BROADBRUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THERE
IS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A NICE
WARMING TREND.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THURSDAY
EVENING CONTINUES TO SEE MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS AND CAPE VALUES ~1-1.5
KJ/KG. THIS WILL BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THAT SHOULD BE
OVER BY SUNDOWN AND THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WAA INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
AS ANY RIDGE RIDER WAVE/EMBEDDED IMPULSE COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ANY GIVEN DAY. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
ISOLATED/LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KJMS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS KDIK
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER LWR MI...NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. THINK THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET THEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO DIE OFF.
THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SHRA/PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO CONTINUING
MAKING SURE THE GROUND STAYS SATURATED BEFORE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
EVENTUAL FLOODING RETURN STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LOWERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS COOLING
TAKES PLACE .
HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RATHER WET EVEN STORMY WEEKEND WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL QPF IS RATHER HIGH FROM MOST MODELS WITH
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WITH VERY WET SOIL...WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
INSTABILITY IS MODEST SO THIS EVENT MAY HAVE LOWER RAINFALL RATES
THAN RECENT EVENTS BUT THE DURATION IS PROLONGED SO FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
SOME DECREASE ON SUNDAY. HAVE USED MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TRAIN KEEPS ON ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA. WAVE AFTER WAVE AFTER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE THE RESULT OF FAST MOVING
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN WET.
AFTER A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HITS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIODS OF RAIN WILL HELP TO KEEP
SOIL ACROSS THE AREA AT OR NEAR SATURATION. SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS
THAT FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
ONCE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE. SO...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 60S
FOR LOWS. NO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOW VFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS IN NRN INDIANA AND NWRN OHIO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS COULD IMPACT KFDY THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF IFR CIGS AS WELL AS
CIGS LOWER. ALSO BROUGHT IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG/MIST AS
WELL TOWARDS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL IS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ON SATURDAY. AFTER SPEAKING TO BUFFALO NWS AND THE TORONTO CANADA
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...WILL GO WITH WINDS IN THE LOW 30 KNOTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT JUST
BELOW GALES FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GET AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
613 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER LWR MI...NRN INDIANA AND NW OH IN THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET THEN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL START TO DIE OFF. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS
SUPPORT THIS.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SHRA/PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO CONTINUING
MAKING SURE THE GROUND STAYS SATURATED BEFORE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
EVENTUAL FLOODING RETURN STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LOWERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS COOLING
TAKES PLACE .
HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RATHER WET EVEN STORMY WEEKEND WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL QPF IS RATHER HIGH FROM MOST MODELS WITH
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WITH VERY WET SOIL...WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
INSTABILITY IS MODEST SO THIS EVENT MAY HAVE LOWER RAINFALL RATES
THAN RECENT EVENTS BUT THE DURATION IS PROLONGED SO FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
SOME DECREASE ON SUNDAY. HAVE USED MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TRAIN KEEPS ON ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA. WAVE AFTER WAVE AFTER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE THE RESULT OF FAST MOVING
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN WET.
AFTER A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HITS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIODS OF RAIN WILL HELP TO KEEP
SOIL ACROSS THE AREA AT OR NEAR SATURATION. SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS
THAT FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
ONCE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE. SO...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 60S
FOR LOWS. NO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIMITED AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A MIX OF MVFR...IFR...AND VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY
TO VFR TOMORROW. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA THE REST OF
FRI. WIDESPREAD NON VFR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL IS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ON SATURDAY. AFTER SPEAKING TO BUFFALO NWS AND THE TORONTO CANADA
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...WILL GO WITH WINDS IN THE LOW 30 KNOTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT JUST
BELOW GALES FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GET AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THAT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK TO OHIO AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS IS CONTINUING TO WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF SOME BETTER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MUCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF A BIT LONGER AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TO
REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS IS ABLE TO
DISSIPATE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE THE RAP IS TRYING TO
REDEVELOP 1000-2000 J/KG ML CAPES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PCPN THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HRRR/ARW. WILL THEN NUDGE POPS BACK UP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS BUT AM HESITANT TO
LOWER THEM TOO MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM. A LEADING EDGE OF WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS
OVER KENTUCKY AS THEY PASS SOUTHWARD FROM OHIO AND INDIANA. EAST
WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WILL DRY OUT THE REGION FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD...UNTIL RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF A STEADY NATURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO OHIO EARLY
SATURDAY. LARGEST THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID STRENGTHENING AS IT SPINS
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE SAME TIME...HELPING TO PULL THE
SURFACE SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AND THEN TO STALL IT OUT OVER
NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND AN INFILTRATION OF COLDER AIR FRONT THESE
ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WILL ONLY PERMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EVEN AS READINGS RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO LOW 80S IN KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S THURS AND FRI NIGHT...UNTIL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ON THE
BACK END OF THESE SYSTEMS PULLS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO
THE FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SOME SPOTTY IFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT THE
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR SO
THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD EVENING AND WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A
VCTS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ASSUMING THE STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
936 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THAT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK TO OHIO AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS IS CONTINUING TO WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF SOME BETTER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MUCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF A BIT LONGER AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TO
REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS IS ABLE TO
DISSIPATE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE THE RAP IS TRYING TO
REDEVELOP 1000-2000 J/KG ML CAPES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PCPN THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HRRR/ARW. WILL THEN NUDGE POPS BACK UP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS BUT AM HESITANT TO
LOWER THEM TOO MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM. A LEADING EDGE OF WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS
OVER KENTUCKY AS THEY PASS SOUTHWARD FROM OHIO AND INDIANA. EAST
WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WILL DRY OUT THE REGION FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD...UNTIL RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF A STEADY NATURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO OHIO EARLY
SATURDAY. LARGEST THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID STRENGTHENING AS IT SPINS
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE SAME TIME...HELPING TO PULL THE
SURFACE SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AND THEN TO STALL IT OUT OVER
NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND AN INFILTRATION OF COLDER AIR FRONT THESE
ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WILL ONLY PERMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EVEN AS READINGS RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO LOW 80S IN KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S THURS AND FRI NIGHT...UNTIL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ON THE
BACK END OF THESE SYSTEMS PULLS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO
THE FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS SLOWING WORKING TOWARDS THE TAFS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
AFFECT THE TAFS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
FROM THE STORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS IN
SOME OF THE STORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THRU THE TAFS.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECHARGE. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
DONT DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. WILL KEEP VCTS IN
THE TAFS FOR THE AFTN.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING CLEARING OUT THE
CONVECTION. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS POST FRONTAL COULD WORK
INTO THE TAFS AFT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
207 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOMORROW AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK ECHOES FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. A
SHORTWAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA/ ILLINOIS BORDER AND
CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED EAST THIS
EVENING INTO ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE LEFTOVERS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 1
AND 4 AM THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THERE MIGHT NOT
BE MUCH LEFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA. LATEST KILN SOUNDING DOES SHOW
WE HAVE STARTED TO SATURATE BUT THERE STILL REMAINS DRY AIR IN THE
700 TO 900 MB LAYER. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER TO MID 60S STILL LOOKS ON TARGET AS
THICKER CLOUDS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MOVE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA. AFTER WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
13 - 15Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SUITE
OF HIGH RES RUNS. STILL AM EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE ABLE TO
RECHARGE ENOUGH TO GET LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF GFS/
NAM SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1900/ 2500 J/KG RESPECTIVELY WITH
AMPLE SHEAR VALUES (40 TO 50 KTS OF 0 - 6 KM SHEAR). DUE TO THE
MENTIONED ABOVE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION ->
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. SIGNALS FROM RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z WHICH LINES UP
WITH AN ARW SOLUTION. SO STRONGER STORMS MAY SLIDE IN SOUTH OF
DAYTON AND HEAD MORE TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
AS REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN.
IF SOMETHING ALONG THESE LINES OCCURS THEN WOULD EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS.
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
AREA STORMS WILL RE-FIRE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THAT INSTABILITY RELOADS AS EXPECTED...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS IN
PLAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS IT HEADS
SOUTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING.
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 1.75 INCHES WITH THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER CLOSER TO 4 KM DEEP. SO THIS COULD BE ANOTHER HIGHLY
EFFICIENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF
OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION. SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COULD PUSH 90 WHILE I-70 NORTHWARDS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE
TO NEAR 80. THEREAFTER EXPECT A NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE WITH WARM
LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FA AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EAST AND
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE FA. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S EXPECTED.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO THE
FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS N OF KDAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
H5 S/W THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA DURING THE PERIOD. THE SHRA
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KDAY...BUT COULD BRUSH KCMH/KLCK IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER.
MODELS THEN BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
LATEST TIMING HAS IT ARRIVING INTO THE TAFS A LITTLE AFTER 12Z AND
PUSHING THROUGH BY 16Z. AXIS OF BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
I-70.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THRU THE TAFS.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECHARGE. FOR EXAMPLE THE 2 HIRES WRFS
DONT DEVELOP THIS CONVECTION BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZATION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTN.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING CLEARING OUT THE
CONVECTION. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS POST FRONTAL COULD WORK
INTO THE TAFS AFT 06Z. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE 30 HOUR CVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
140 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND THEN MEANDER
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN A LATE EVENING UPDATE...
ONE 500 MB WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED ON THE RAP MODEL MOVING EAST THRU CENTRAL WV
AT 01Z THIS EVENING TOWARD CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS BETWEEN EKN AND BKW.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN IN ITS WAKE...BEFORE NEXT VORT MAX APPROACHES
SE OHIO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
WILL STILL TRY TO FORM THE THICKER FOG CKB-CRW-EKN ON DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELD VALLEYS...THOUGH DURATION ONLY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS.
STILL IMPRESSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UP THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THE EXISTING/OLDER
CONVECTION THAT WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY.
ANY NEW COMPLEX THAT FORMS AFTER 18Z SHOULD MOVE AT LEAST AT 40 KNOTS.
SO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DESPITE SPEED...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WETTER THAN NORMAL
LATE JUNE SOIL CONDITIONS THAT EXIST N OF HTS-CRW-SUMMERSVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF AN MCS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...THE FRONT
ITSELF LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE MCS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SOUTHERN AREAS VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MCS
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT STALLING IN THE FAR SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE POPS THERE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN STRONG
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND TIME FRAME...WILL NOT JUMP ON ANY
WATCHES YET...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.
THE FRONT WILL START BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME ACROSS
SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...BUT QUITE HUMID. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN COOLER AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STILL MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ALSO EXITING...BUT IT WILL FEEL ON
THE COOL SIDE. THE MODELS HAVE YET ANOTHER FRONT COMING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...THIS
PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WERE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
IN ITS WAKE...VFR CONDITIONS WERE COMMON.
EXPECT MVFR VALLEY FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MID DECK CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH FEATURE APPROACHING THE
AREA...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z.
EXPECT ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH E/SE TOWARD THE REGION. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 18Z...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY AFTER 00Z FRI.
EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. TIMING
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY VARY EITHER WAY...FASTER
OR SLOWER.
.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THAT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IFR AGAIN IN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...FB/JMV
AVIATION...JSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES BY 06Z. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NE TO THE E AND SE SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING... MAINLY
CONCERNING POPS AS THINGS HAVE EVOLVED THIS EVENING. JUST UPDATED
GRIDS AGAIN TO CONCENTRATE THE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND TO LOWER POPS MORE THOUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH EXTENSION WEST WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE TO SEE SOME STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOWER POPS THERE AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
AVIATION...
0Z TAFS...EARLIER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SURFACE WINDS IN KLAW AND
KSPS FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING N-NE WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SE KS/NE OK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CAUSING A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WIND TO E.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OK... BUT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY. A BIT WARMER BY THEN AS WELL... WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN...I.E.
NORTHWEST FLOW... CONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEAK SFC
FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND HUMID...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER WEST KEEPING THE HOTTER
TEMPS AT BAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 86 65 89 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 89 64 92 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 88 66 91 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 87 64 92 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 65 86 66 92 / 10 0 0 10
DURANT OK 69 86 64 90 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING... MAINLY
CONCERNING POPS AS THINGS HAVE EVOLVED THIS EVENING. JUST UPDATED
GRIDS AGAIN TO CONCENTRATE THE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND TO LOWER POPS MORE THOUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH EXTENSION WEST WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE TO SEE SOME STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOWER POPS THERE AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
AVIATION...
0Z TAFS...EARLIER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SURFACE WINDS IN KLAW AND
KSPS FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING N-NE WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SE KS/NE OK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CAUSING A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WIND TO E.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OK... BUT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY. A BIT WARMER BY THEN AS WELL... WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN...I.E.
NORTHWEST FLOW... CONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEAK SFC
FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND HUMID...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER WEST KEEPING THE HOTTER
TEMPS AT BAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 86 65 89 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 89 64 92 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 88 66 91 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 87 64 92 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 65 86 66 92 / 10 0 0 10
DURANT OK 69 86 64 90 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS WITH NEWER DATA AND PULLED
INTO LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT MAINLY IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOW. SOME OF THIS IS THE HIGHER THIN STUFF COMING OFF
THE MASSIVE MCS OVER INDIANA WITH A MASSIVE COLD CLOUD SHIELD FROM
WESTERN OHIO BACK INTO ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.
THIS MCS WILL DOMINATE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HRRR TRIGGERS SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAS SOME RENEGADE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. TRIED TO SHOW
HIGHEST POPS/THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 08Z HRRR HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW AFTER 16Z AND BODILY
BRINGS IN THE REMENANTS ABOUT 20Z IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS REACHING
HARRISBURG IN THE EVENING LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR
JUST AFTER. THE HRRR RADAR IS MORE ROBUST IN APPEARANCE THAN THE
QPF. ACCUMULATING QPF IS LIGHT THROUGH 22Z.
THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND THIS MCS.
SUFFICE TO SAY MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE TODAY. CIRRUS FROM THE MCS WILL BE THE BEST MOST WILL DO. IN
THE SOUTHWEST RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS NEAR DINNER TIME IN THE YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. HRRR IMPLIES TIMING
OF RAIN BEST IN SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT NOT A STRONG SIGNAL.
LINGERING SHOWER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY AS RAIN DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEMS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. POPS WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1020MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CEDE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT 12Z WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCALES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES /FOLLOWING PATH
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TOWARD
THE MASON/DIXON LINE/...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. LARGE MCS OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A
SIG IMPACT ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIP OVER PA LATER TODAY...WITH
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGING NUMEROUS GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
THE SW MTNS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE LATE TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH AND WEST OF KJST
WILL BRING BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SCT TSTMS...SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER IN TAFS. CIGS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO MVFR AT KJST-KAOO BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTHERN HALF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS.
SAT...WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND ISO TSTMS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
618 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS WITH NEWER DATA AND PULLED
INTO LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT MAINLY IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOW. SOME OF THIS IS THE HIGHER THIN STUFF COMING OFF
THE MASSIVE MCS OVER INDIANA WITH A MASSIVE COLD CLOUD SHIELD FROM
WESTERN OHIO BACK INTO ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.
THIS MCS WILL DOMINATE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HRRR TRIGGERS SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAS SOME RENEGADE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. TRIED TO SHOW
HIGHEST POPS/THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 08Z HRRR HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW AFTER 16Z AND BODILY
BRINGS IN THE REMENANTS ABOUT 20Z IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS REACHING
HARRISBURG IN THE EVENING LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR
JUST AFTER. THE HRRR RADAR IS MORE ROBUST IN APPEARANCE THAN THE
QPF. ACCUMULATING QPF IS LIGHT THROUGH 22Z.
THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND THIS MCS.
SUFFICE TO SAY MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE TODAY. CIRRUS FROM THE MCS WILL BE THE BEST MOST WILL DO. IN
THE SOUTHWEST RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS NEAR DINNER TIME IN THE YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. HRRR IMPLIES TIMING
OF RAIN BEST IN SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT NOT A STRONG SIGNAL.
LINGERING SHOWER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY AS RAIN DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEMS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. POPS WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WITH 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA.
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FOG POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AROUND
SUNRISE...VAST MAJORITY OF CWA WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
LARGE MCS OVER UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO PA AFTER SUNRISE. THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TODAY...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
NUMEROUS GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE SW MTNS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. BETTER
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SOUTHERN TAFS WILL BRING BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR SCT TSTMS. CIGS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO MVFR AT KJST-KAOO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTHERN HALF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS.
SAT...WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND ISO TSTMS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS/FORECASTS.
RADAR IS STILL QUITE QUIET SHOWING AN ELONGATED BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE REGION. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THE
MASSIVE MCS OVER IA/IL WHICH THE HRRR STREAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
SO A NICE COOL LATE JUNE OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS COMING FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY NEAR 50 IN THE CLEARER
NORTH TO AROUND 60 IN THE CLOUDIER SOUTH. NOTHING EXCITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THAT MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW
IMPLIED IN THE MODELS COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MTS AROUND
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS THERE.
THE NEW NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT RESOLUTION MATTERS. IT LIKE THE
HRRR IS SLOWER WITH THE MCS AND RAINFALL THAN THE PREVIOUS SREF.
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PA SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY. BEST CHANCE RAIN BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CLEARLY THE MCS IS IMPACTING OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS MIDNIGHT DISCUSSION ON SREF/RAIN ISSUES:
THE SREF HAS THE SAME AREA AS THE HRRR AND BLOWS IT UP FOR OUR
AFTERNOON RAINFALL IN WEST/SW PA. EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT WILL TIME
IN BETTER WITH THE MCS REMNANTS IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MODELS FITS AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS SUGGEST A GOOD 0.2 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SO COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE WET SREF HAS NICE SWATH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY IN S-CENTRAL PA.
THE GEFS IS NOT AS ROBUST AND IS 3 HOURS OLDER. IT DOES NOT HAVE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS MORE IN THE 0.2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE
EVENT. THIS IS CONVECTIVE INTERACTION ISSUE. SO WE ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IN ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS THE HRRR AND ITS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING PHYSICS
MAY HELP CLARIFY THE RAINFALL ISSUES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN EVENT...FOR THE WEEKEND IS EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. ONE
GEFS RUN HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS IN PA...MORE RECENT RUN SHIFTED ALL
THAT OVER LAKE ERIE. ITS SUMMER AND CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATIONS WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WITH 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA.
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FOG POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AROUND
SUNRISE...VAST MAJORITY OF CWA WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
LARGE MCS OVER UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO PA AFTER SUNRISE. THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TODAY...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
NUMEROUS GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE SW MTNS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. BETTER
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SOUTHERN TAFS WILL BRING BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR SCT TSTMS. CIGS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO MVFR AT KJST-KAOO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTHERN HALF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS.
SAT...WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND ISO TSTMS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE
PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS/FORECASTS.
RADAR IS STILL QUITE QUIET SHOWING AN ELONGATED BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE REGION. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THE
MASSIVE MCS OVER IA/IL WHICH THE HRRR STREAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
SO A NICE COOL LATE JUNE OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS COMING FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY NEAR 50 IN THE CLEARER
NORTH TO AROUND 60 IN THE CLOUDIER SOUTH. NOTHING EXCITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THAT MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW
IMPLIED IN THE MODELS COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MTS AROUND
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS THERE.
THE NEW NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT RESOLUTION MATTERS. IT LIKE THE
HRRR IS SLOWER WITH THE MCS AND RAINFALL THAN THE PREVIOUS SREF.
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PA SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY. BEST CHANCE RAIN BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CLEARLY THE MCS IS IMPACTING OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS MIDNIGHT DISCUSSION ON SREF/RAIN ISSUES:
THE SREF HAS THE SAME AREA AS THE HRRR AND BLOWS IT UP FOR OUR
AFTERNOON RAINFALL IN WEST/SW PA. EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT WILL TIME
IN BETTER WITH THE MCS REMNANTS IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MODELS FITS AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS SUGGEST A GOOD 0.2 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SO COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE WET SREF HAS NICE SWATH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY IN S-CENTRAL PA.
THE GEFS IS NOT AS ROBUST AND IS 3 HOURS OLDER. IT DOES NOT HAVE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS MORE IN THE 0.2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE
EVENT. THIS IS CONVECTIVE INTERACTION ISSUE. SO WE ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IN ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS THE HRRR AND ITS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING PHYSICS
MAY HELP CLARIFY THE RAINFALL ISSUES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN EVENT...FOR THE WEEKEND IS EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. ONE
GEFS RUN HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS IN PA...MORE RECENT RUN SHIFTED ALL
THAT OVER LAKE ERIE. ITS SUMMER AND CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATIONS WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
03Z TAFS WILL GO OUT SHORTLY.
NO LARGE CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS PACKAGE.
DID BACK OFF FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HARD TO SEE
MUCH...GIVEN RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JUNE. WHILE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL...DEWPOINTS COME DOWN SOME TOO.
THU MORNING LOOKS OK.
DID BRING IN SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THU AFT...GIVEN
SE FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MOVING EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1226 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY...A UNSETTLED
AND WET PATTERN DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS/FORECASTS.
RADAR QUITE QUIET SHOWING A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE
REGION. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THE MASSIVE MCS OVER IA/IL WHICH THE
HRRR STREAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
SO A NICE COOL LATE JUNE OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS COMING FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. NOTHING EXCITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THAT MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW
IMPLIED IN THE MODELS COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MTS AROUND
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS THERE.
THE SREF HAS THE SAME AREA AS THE HRRR AND BLOWS IT UP FOR OUR
AFTERNOON RAINFALL IN WEST/SW PA. EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT WILL TIME
IN BETTER WITH THE MCS REMNANTS IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MODELS FITS AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS SUGGEST A GOOD 0.2 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SO COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE WET SREF HAS NICE SWATH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY IN S-CENTRAL PA.
THE GEFS IS NOT AS ROBUST AND IS 3 HOURS OLDER. IT DOES NOT HAVE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS MORE IN THE 0.2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE
EVENT. THIS IS CONVECTIVE INTERACTION ISSUE. SO WE ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IN ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS THE HRRR AND ITS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING PHYSICS
MAY HELP CLARIFY THE RAINFALL ISSUES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN EVENT...FOR THE WEEKEND IS EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. ONE
GEFS RUN HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS IN PA...MORE RECENT RUN SHIFTED ALL
THAT OVER LAKE ERIE. ITS SUMMER AND CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATIONS WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
03Z TAFS WILL GO OUT SHORTLY.
NO LARGE CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS PACKAGE.
DID BACK OFF FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HARD TO SEE
MUCH...GIVEN RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JUNE. WHILE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL...DEWPOINTS COME DOWN SOME TOO.
THU MORNING LOOKS OK.
DID BRING IN SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THU AFT...GIVEN
SE FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MOVING EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AT THIS TIME...WE/LL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF -SHRA AT KDRT AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
INTO VFR AFTER 16Z FOR MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION ACROSS
THE I-35 SITES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
UPDATE... /SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADDED TO WEST TONIGHT/
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS AND THE LATEST NAM SHOW A HIGH PWAT AREA OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WITH A FEW CELLS FORMING OVER KINNEY
AND UVALDE COUNTIES TO REINFORCE THIS SCENARIO....WILL GO AHEAD
AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. A
SMALL AREA OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS WAS SLIPPED INTO THE UPDATE FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS I35. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. CLOUDY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN UNUSUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PW IS FORECAST TO BE 2.0-2.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST DIGGING A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 73 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 - 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 73 90 73 91 / - 0 0 - 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 73 91 / - - 0 - 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 91 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 91 72 92 / - 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 90 73 91 / - 0 - - 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 74 91 / 20 - - - 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 90 74 91 / - 0 - - 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 92 / 10 0 0 - 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
831 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN VOID BETWEEN STORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. WW363 IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN VA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WV IN ANTICIPATION OF ARRIVAL OF MCS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HRRR INDICATES ARRIVAL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TO FOLLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND
CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AREAWIDE. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZEDFLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON EXACT TIMING OF TSRA...THUS LEAVING OUT OF
TAFS ATTM. MORE CONFIDENT ON INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS PER INCREASING
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT THAT CIGS
COULD DROP TO IFR AFTER 06Z/2AM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN COOLED AIR BEFORE FORECASTING THE LOW CIGS.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN DROP BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND HELP TREND
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY
WITH HEAVY RAIN....ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...
CHALLENGING FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY
KEEPING AN EYE ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAKING ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WHILE CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST...ALSO NOTICING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS PUTTING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL ALSO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND RAP ARE INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE
WESTERN RIDGES...HOWEVER EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BREAK UP AS IT
PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ENCOUNTERS DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER SUNSET...
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON THE ABOVE THINKING.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ATTEMPT TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH A FAINT WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MAY INITIALLY HAVE A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SE EARLY ON
WHERE RETURN FLOW COMBINES WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AS
DEPICTED BY MOST SOLUTIONS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE UPSTREAM MIDWEST
MCS AS IT APPROACHES AND LIKELY LAYS DOWN AN OUTFLOW ACROSS THE NW LATE
WHILE THE REMNANT WAVE STARTS TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER PWATS OUT EAST.
ALTHOUGH FOR NOW APPEARS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE INDUCED WAVE WILL STAY
TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SW
WITH A VOID OVER THE WEST PER DEEPER WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. TIMING OF
THIS A BIT TRICKY AS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COME TOGETHER UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH/EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. ANY SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL UNTIL LATE GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND FOCUS
BUT WITH A BOUNDARY CROSSING SOME ISOLATED THREAT LOOKS IN STORE
MAINLY EAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY.
OTRW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO REBOUND TODAY PER 85H TEMPS RISING BACK
TO NEAR 22C UNDER WEST/SW FLOW. HOWEVER THIS MAY BE CURTAILED SOME
OVER THE NORTH/WEST PER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LATER SHRA FROM THE
UPSTREAM MCS. THUS KEPT VALUES ON THE LOW END OF MOS WEST WHILE
TAKING HIGHS OUT EAST BACK TO THE LOW 90S WHERE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN.
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER CONVECTION MAY COME THIS EVENING AS THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW SLIDES THROUGH THE FAR WEST AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE PASSING
WAVE. MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ENOUGH
LEFTOVER INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BANDS OVER THE
NW AND A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NE WITH THE IMPULSE. THUS HAVE BUMPED
COVERAGE TO A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG I-64 AND
POINTS EAST TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. IN BETWEEN...EXPECT WESTERLY
FLOW TO AGAIN INHIBIT COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WITH MOSTLY 20/30 POPS
PENDING HOW FAST STORMS WEAKEN AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY CAN CROSS THE
WESTERN RIDGES. LOWS BACK TO THE WARM/MUGGY REGIME WITH A RANGE OF 65-
72 OVERALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING...LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...HUMID BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEING IN BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A LEE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
PIEDMONT AND DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SINCE
SPOTTY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...RAISED FRIDAY AFTERNOON`S HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
A STRONG SURFACE WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL SHORT WAVES WILL BRING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL HIT THE WESTERN SLOPES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARS THE PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BRINGS CONCERNS
OF FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY. MODELS VARY ON PWATS BUT CLOSE TO 2SD.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST GUESS
AMOUNTS ARE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF /1.5/ FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE OUT MORE ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALSO
WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...MORNING SHOWERS AND CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS. IF SKIES MANAGE TO BREAK AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATION
(CURRENTLY FORECASTED TOWARDS NORTHERN VIRGINIA) IS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HEIGHTENED WITH ORGANIZED MULTI-
CELLAR STORMS. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
MORE QUESTIONABLE BUT WILL HAVE LOW TO NO PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF MOVES WARMER AIR BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS BRING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW END VFR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
MIX OUT WITH HEATING. COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA VICINITY
KDAN/KLYH THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW WORKS NORTH FROM EARLIER SHRA
SO INCLUDING A MENTION THERE. OTRW FOG REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO LACK
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE THAT
COULD SPILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS INTO THE VALLEYS AROUND
KLWB/KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING GIVING
WAY TO CU BUILDUPS UNDER CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF 4-6K FT CIGS AT TIMES ACROSS THE
REGION BUT STILL APPEARS MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER SW
FLOW AT 7-15 KTS. AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAKES ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GET SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS GOING...ESPCLY EAST. HOWEVER GIVEN MORE ISOLATED
NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY SHRA/TSRA MENTION
UNTIL AROUND 00Z/8PM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO FORM THURSDAY EVENING MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FADING EARLY FRIDAY AS AN IMPULSE PASSES BY
TO THE NE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BANDS
OF DEEPER CONVECTION COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS WELL ONCE
CONVECTION FADES. GIVEN HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OUT WEST AND OVER THE NE...ADDED IN A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB/KLYH THIS EVENING...WITH A PREVAILING MVFR
GROUP IN SHRA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET...BUT APPEARS SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA COULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
AS MUCH OF THE REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HEADING
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MAIN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS
COULD ACT TO BRING LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS BUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCLUDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NW WINDS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MOSTLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
WITH MORE SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/MBS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
603 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONVECTION FIRING IN A BROAD REGION OF UNSTABLE AIR...JUST NEEDING A
FOCUS TO GET IT GOING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY PLACES ONE CLUSTER
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS TIED TO A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. OVER IA INTO NORTHERN ILL IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ENHANCED CU AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE THE RULE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT BOTH AREAS
OF PCPN TO CONTINUE - DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT...THE RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
RUNNING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND INCREASE POPS IF THIS BECOMES LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST...SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL WARMING - ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CENTERED OVER IA. 300 MB
JET STREAK LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE LIFT. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALL THE
MODELS HAVE SAID AS MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/AREAS OF RAIN AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS BRING
THE SHORTWAVE IN BY 12Z SUN...WITH PCPN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THAT TIME. THE PCPN AND TROUGH
AXIS THEN SWINGS INTO WESTERN WI FOR SUN AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY...MOST OF WHICH LIES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER -
ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AT 12Z
SUN MORNING...BUT THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS IS POST THE PCPN SHIELD AND MUCH OF THE
DYNAMICS. NOT SURE IT WILL/COULD BE UTILIZED BY THE EXPECTED ONGOING
CONVECTION...OR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALL IN
ALL...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
THE MORNING...EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD ONTO THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN
TROUGH CONFIGURATION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL FLOW WOULD SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE BITS OF ENERGY - AS EXPECTED - BUT
NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD...ALL-DAY KIND OF
RAIN EVENTS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR DON/T FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE BLANKET OF SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...REVISING AS THE DETAILS BECOMING
CLEARER.
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS. IN ADDITION...NO TO LIMITED TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SOME OF THESE COULD COME CLOSE
TO OR IMPACT KLSE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE FOR SOMEWHAT OF A
WEAKENING TREND SO WILL START WITH A VCSH AND HAVE THAT FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE 26.21Z HRRR AND OTHER MESO SCALE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE HEATING AND CAPE STARTS TO DIMINISH. NO ACTIVITY IS NEAR KRST
AND RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SUGGEST ANYTHING SHOULD APPROACH THIS
EVENING EITHER. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIES OFF...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL. ONE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
25.00Z GFS/NAM AND 25.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/HRRR SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE
DEEPER FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
AREA.
WEAK SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROMISES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW THOUGH IS NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL SLIDE A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS IA/ILL TONIGHT/FRI. AREAS OF SHRA/TS WILL RESULT...BUT LOOK
TO STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY FRIDAY...LIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ONE CAVEAT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BR OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING ON
HOW THICK/PREVALENT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL. ONE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
25.00Z GFS/NAM AND 25.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/HRRR SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE
DEEPER FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
AREA.
WEAK SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
IFR/MVFR CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS IA/IL WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 26.12Z. SOME
PATCHY FOG/MIST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT AFTERNOON THERMAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL LAYER. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS
WILL BE THE RULE. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN
25.12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL. ONE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
25.00Z GFS/NAM AND 25.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/HRRR SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE
DEEPER FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
AREA.
WEAK SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HAVE ADVANCED
TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THE 25.03Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE
ACROSS KLSE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF A LOWER VFR
CEILING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING JUST SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO START TO WORK IN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WILL HIT THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITHIN THIS FLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TIED TO SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA WHILE THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MN/UPPER MI WAS
TIED MORE TO CONVERGENCE OF LAKE BREEZE FRONT. OUR AREA WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...HIGH AND DRY FOR NOW. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MCV ACROSS IA
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS THEN SHOW RETURN
850MB FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO...NORTHWARD NEAR I-80. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO
REGENERATE A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...POSSIBLE GRAZING OUR NORTHEAST IA COUNTIES. LATEST WRF
RUNS KEEP CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE COARSER DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION REACHING INTO NORTHEAST
IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN
FAYETTE/CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHER GRANT
COUNTY IN WI...TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. HIGHER CAPE AXIS STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE IN CASE
THE WARM FRONT/CAPE POOL SURGES FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
NOT MUCH WORKING FOR IT OTHER THAN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR TRIGGER. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
WRF MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR PUMPING DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF CUMULUS...BUT
ANY SHOWER/THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN WI/U.P. IN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ACROSS MN INTO IA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WILL STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY DOMINATED WITH DECENT CUMULUS FIELD WITH HIGHS
ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK IS DOMINATED WITH MUDDLED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY. AS A
RESULT...PLAN ON PERIODIC ON/OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HAVE ADVANCED
TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THE 25.03Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE
ACROSS KLSE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF A LOWER VFR
CEILING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING JUST SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO START TO WORK IN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WILL HIT THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
RIVERS ARE RECEDING. SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ALONG THE CEDAR
RIVER AT CHARLES CITY...BUT THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WEAK AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AS CEILINGS AT KPOU
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOWERING. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON THE
RADAR ACROSS NW NJ AND NE PA THAT THE NEW HRRR SUGGESTS MAY
MIGRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO WE WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS OHIO
VALLEY STORM IS TAKING SHAPE. WE WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A
BIT FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE
WILL ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN IMPRESSIVE STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
12Z MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN
NY REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY SATURDAY WILL START OUT DRY...BUT RAIN WILL BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING...WITH POPS FORECAST TO RISE AND REACH 100 PERCENT IN
ALL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GENERALLY 100 PERCENT POPS
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. EVEN WITH REDUCED
RAINFALL FORECASTS...STILL EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
12Z RUNS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CENTER...BUT IT IS NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN...SO THE MODELS NOW SHOW A
STRONG DRY SLOT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE WIDESPREAD PCPN AREA BREAKING UP INTO A SHOWERY PATTERN.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE PCPN...WITH EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THE DRY SLOT MAY ALSO RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF TSTMS ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BESIDES THE RAIN...THE OTHER FACTOR OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WHEN THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHEAST GRADIENT (MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE BERKSHIRES AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS. WILL MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME
HIGHS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID
70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AS
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS /AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC/ ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW U70S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NY AND
NEW ENGLAND. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...AS A WARM FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH BASED ON THE GEFS/GFS/ECMWF IMPACTS THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT-WAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL-NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S WITH SOME L70S. NOT SURE
ABOUT L70S THIS FAR OUT...BUT SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IF SUFFICIENT SFC
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING OCCURS. THE GFS FOR TUE CONTINUES TO HAVE 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS INDICATIVE OF SOME DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
THE GEFS HAVE PWATS RISE ABOUT 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO L80S. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE U50S TO
L60S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID AND U70S OVER
THE HILLS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPERED THE POPS DOWN FURTHER THURSDAY TO
NOTHING OR SLIGHT CHC...AS THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WX WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM. LOWS PRESSURE MAY MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VERY
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...ARE MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND WILL SHORTLY BECOME BKN-OVC AT ALL SITES AROUND 20-25
KFT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 10-15 KFT BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. A STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL
NY/PENNSYLVANIA AND LOOKS TO REACH INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-
21Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. INITIALLY...VSBY WILL LOWER TO 4-5SM
WITHIN RAINFALL BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS AT 3500-5000
FT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP INTO MVFR RANGE AS WELL.
AS RAINFALL INTENSITY STARTS TO PICK UP TOWARDS EVENING...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND 23Z/SATURDAY-01Z/SUNDAY
WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1-2SM. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 1500-2500 FT...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 1000 FT DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT MORNING TO 5-10 KTS.
BY SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING...WINDS WILL BECOME E-NE AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS...ESP AT KPSF...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPSF WITH
WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS WELL...AS 2 KFT WINDS
REACH 30-40 KTS FOR LATE SAT EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 75
AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HSA WITH SOME UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING A LITTLE MORE. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES AT THIS
TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN INTENSIFYING STORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WEAK AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AS CEILINGS AT KPOU
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOWERING. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON THE
RADAR ACROSS NW NJ AND NE PA THAT THE NEW HRRR SUGGESTS MAY
MIGRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO WE WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS OHIO
VALLEY STORM IS TAKING SHAPE. WE WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A
BIT FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE
WILL ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN IMPRESSIVE STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND...
12Z MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN
NY REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY SATURDAY WILL START OUT DRY...BUT RAIN WILL BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING...WITH POPS FORECAST TO RISE AND REACH 100 PERCENT IN
ALL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GENERALLY 100 PERCENT POPS
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. EVEN WITH REDUCED
RAINFALL FORECASTS...STILL EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
12Z RUNS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CENTER...BUT IT IS NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN...SO THE MODELS NOW SHOW A
STRONG DRY SLOT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE WIDESPREAD PCPN AREA BREAKING UP INTO A SHOWERY PATTERN.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE PCPN...WITH EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THE DRY SLOT MAY ALSO RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF TSTMS ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BESIDES THE RAIN...THE OTHER FACTOR OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WHEN THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHEAST GRADIENT (MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE BERKSHIRES AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS. WILL MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME
HIGHS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID
70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AS
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS /AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE QUEBEC/ ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW U70S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NY AND
NEW ENGLAND. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...AS A WARM FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH BASED ON THE GEFS/GFS/ECMWF IMPACTS THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT-WAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL-NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S WITH SOME L70S. NOT SURE
ABOUT L70S THIS FAR OUT...BUT SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IF SUFFICIENT SFC
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING OCCURS. THE GFS FOR TUE CONTINUES TO HAVE 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS INDICATIVE OF SOME DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
THE GEFS HAVE PWATS RISE ABOUT 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO L80S. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE U50S TO
L60S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID AND U70S OVER
THE HILLS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPERED THE POPS DOWN FURTHER THURSDAY TO
NOTHING OR SLIGHT CHC...AS THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WX WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM. LOWS PRESSURE MAY MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS A STEADY RAIN BEGINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT KPOU
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT
ALL OTHER FORECAST TERMINALS EXITS AS WELL JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 75
AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
RIGHT NOW...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HSA WITH SOME UPSLOPE AREAS GETTING A LITTLE MORE. THE TRACK AND
RAINFALL DURATION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES
TO THE CAUTION OR ALERT STAGES AT ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES AT THIS
TIME.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. ALSO...IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING...THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA LATER IN TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED IN LOWER MI WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO DEVELOP A FEW 50DBZ SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IL AS CLOSE AS ROCHELLE
AND OREGON IN OGLE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FARTHER WEST
THEY GET THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SO NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH...SKIES IN THE CWA WERE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SO A RATHER COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX DIVING INTO
NORTHERN IA AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IN MANITOBA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY...APPARENTLY MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHES THE
ACTIVITY TOWARDS EVENING. I CERTAINLY CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 70S WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK VORT MAX TO AID LIFT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF NEAR 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROUGHLY OUR WESTERN HALF. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CAUSE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WHICH MEANS MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS BASED ON USING THE SURFACE PARCEL
TRAJECTORY METHOD WITH OUR AIRMASS COMING FROM NORTHERN WI WHERE
THEIR OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A DRY EVENING BUT THEN ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL SIMILAR IN ROLLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING
TO OVER 1 INCH WHILE SHOWALTERS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW BY SUNRISE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AGAIN BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 60S
FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION LIFT QUADRANT OF 80+ KT 300 MB JET DIVING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WITH TRIPLE POINT
ALL SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING S/E SUNDAY AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTN. HEAVIEST RAINS 0.5 TO 1+ INCHES SUGGESTED TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW AS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
CWA WHICH HAS BEEN HIT HARD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF LATE AND GROUND IS
SATURATED. CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AND
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION.
AT THIS TIME... EXCEPT FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AM MAINLY SOUTH/EAST CWA... I DO NOT
FORESEE A LOT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT
(WIDESPREAD 70S) LEADING TO LOW THREAT FOR A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER... IF MORE SUNSHINE AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATING THEN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE GIVEN PRESENCE
OF STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS DURING THE AFTN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN WRAP-AROUND OVER NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO TIME THESE WAVES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND UNFORTUNATELY DICTATES THE DAILY BARRAGE OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MANY DRY HOURS. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT SOME MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
IFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. KCID HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...AND
KBRL HAD SOME RECENT RAINFALL...SO I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 2SM
BR. KEPT VSBYS AT MVFR FOR KDBQ/KMLI. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
EASTERN IOWA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF TAF FOR NOW AND PASS ALONG FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS IS THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOME
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE I-94 TERMINALS...AND IS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO KLAN. SO FAR THIS HAS BEEN LIGHT RAIN OUT OF A
10K FT CIG. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE IN DOWN SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A BIT
AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. SOME MVFR IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.
WE ARE THINKING THAT THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE
LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD KJXN.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE N/NE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER
EAST. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT... MAINLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MORE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
311 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Have added slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon based on
that there was upstream convection today, and forecast soundings
show that atmosphere will become unstable again today. Both the NAM
and GFS show a upper shortwave trough moving across the area during
the midday hours with the GFS developing some QPF over the area
during the afternoon. Even the HRRR supports this idea with it
breaking out isolated convection during the afternoon over most of
the CWA. This convection will die out quickly this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will remain below
normal even with mixing up to 850mb.
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
(Sunday and Monday)
A second, stronger trough will drop down in northwest upper flow on
Sunday night. There will be additional thunderstorms develop ahead
of it on Sunday as the atmosphere becomes unstable with MLCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A few isolated severe thunderstorms should
be possible over the area Sunday into Sunday evening and deep layer
shear of around 40kts. The trough will move off to the southeast
by Monday, though the atmosphere will still be unstable behind the
front today. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over part of the forecast area on Monday.
Temperatures these two days look slightly warmer as mixing will be
up into the 800-850mb range.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Upper pattern will remain amplified during this period with large
upper high in the western CONUS and mean trough in the east. This
will keep a meandering frontal boundary close to our area during
mid-late week. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Lingering light SHRAs continue to dsspt this evng. Main concern
for the overnight into Friday mrng will be the height and coverage
of stratus. Obs indicate it will start out around 1.5 kft with
pockets of high end IFR. KUIN and KCOU appear to be on the edge at
this point though with the low level wind advecting the stratus in
from IL...KUIN will likely be impacted before KCOU. Stratus should
begin to break up and transition to cu drng the late mrng/early
aftn and dsspt after 00Z. Winds will remain nthrly thru the day
becmng lght/vrb overnight as the sfc ridge axis passes.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR stratus should continue to advect in from IL overnight and
then transition to cu thru the day. Winds will remain nthrly thru
the day and then become lght/vrb sat night as the sfc ridge axis passes.
Miller
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
AS BOTH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GROW
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. SOME MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
THIS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATING SOME SPLOTCHY
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
OTHER THAN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A FAIRLY SEASONABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NERN CONUS. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MN AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING
SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NRN NEB. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WI/IA/IN AREA BY EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT PUSHING THROUGH ROUGHLY 2/3 OF
THE CWA BY 18Z...AND NORTHERLY WINDS CWA-WIDE BY EVENING. THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FRONT USHERS IN THOSE NRLY WINDS AND KEEPS DPTS ON THE NICER SIDE IN
THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOESNT BRING IN A NOTABLE COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK /MON AND TUES/
REMAIN DRY. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ON MONDAY...BUT A COUPLE SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK
TO BE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REGION...AND AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...SLIDE THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...CAUSING IT TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH S/SWRLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT/TUES AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THOSE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING LOWERS
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE FORECAST GOES...PLENTY OF THINGS TO IRON
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGHS WED THROUGH FRI REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL A REINFORCING
PACIFIC INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
THE RAP SUGGESTED H750MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TODAY WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NO RETURN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WOULD SUPPORT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. POSSIBLY COOLER THOUGH GIVEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP LOWS DOWN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATES THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW THE CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INITIALLY AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD A
FEW DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FAR SW
NEB COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
A CHANCE FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE...THUS LIMITED CHANGE TO ONGOING LOW CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXPANDS AGAIN AND WAVES GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...SO CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER
CIBOLA...VALENCIA AND SOCORRO COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS LCL IFR
CIGS ALONG EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MTNS INCLUDING KLVS. MODERATE
EAST CANYON WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND IMPACT
KABQ UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 09Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS SATURDAY WILL BE
FROM THE SW MTNS NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...950 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER 00Z
NAM12 NOT AS CONVINCING FOR KEEPING THE WATCH...INDICATING LESS
QPF. OTHERWISE TWEAKED THE EAST CANYON WINDS DOWNWARD WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING AND MOVING SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THANKS TO THE BACK DOOR FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE FROM TODAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY...BUT
WILL RAMP BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NUDGED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
MORNING...AND HAS BEEN STUCK THERE SINCE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT
MAY BE A FEW HOURS YET UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT SHOULD OCCUR BY 02-03Z.
WHEN THAT DOES OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO THE FRONTS EARLY ARRIVAL...IT HAS TAKEN A BIT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SINCE AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES HAVE NOT
YET REACHED THERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTH OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HRRR SHOWS STORMS
FURTHER EAST...BUT THE NAM MAKES MORE SENSE AT THIS POINT THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS
AND STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THEM SLOWLY SOUTH...IF NOT SW. MOISTURE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON SATURDAY...AND FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. GIVEN HOW WARM IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
PENDING HOW MODELS TREND TONIGHT...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
THE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS PWATS RAISE TO ABOUT 1 INCH OR BETTER ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RELIEF STILL LOOKS TO COME ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR ROUNDS THE
UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOME. COULD SEE A FEW MORE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS THOUGH
VS MAINLY RAIN.
MODELS NOW SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT/WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...
RATHER THAN THURSDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEDNESDAY BEING A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAT THOUGHT YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO IN NW
FLOW. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES. STAY
TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW MOVING INCREASING FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE THE LEAST ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN
STORM ACTIVITY AND UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH MOISTURE LATER NEXT WEEK.
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS BECAUSE OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH/WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE
CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TIMING FOR THE GAP
WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR...INCREASING FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TONIGHT...THEN EXPANDING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY SATURDAY INCREASING WET THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHERLY FOR THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY TUESDAY....STORMS WILL DOWNTREND A BIT BECAUSE OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS DRIER TREND WILL NOT
ELIMINATE STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY THURSDAY
DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-523-526-528-529-532-533-537>539.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN AREA/LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM CARTWRIGHT IN MCKENZIE COUNTY...NORTHEAST TO
KENMARE AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
AREA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-3000
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT. NO GLOBAL OR HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL IS ACCURATELY HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE TO FORECAST THIS AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH CURRENT SHORTWAVE SUGGESTS PERIODS
OF WEAKENING/DIMINISHING OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT ALSO NEW
ISOLATED CELLS RANDOMLY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. THIS IS WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE.
FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AREA TO
NEAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL ADJUST IF
NECESSARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
REMOVED POPS SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA BACK NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALL EVENING AS THEY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...SO LEFT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SCALED BACK ON POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONFINED POPS TO THE MORE DENSE CU FIELDS...SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...ALSO WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE AT. OTHERWISE UPDATES WERE
MINOR FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARM
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 800-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SOURIS BASIN...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1940 UTC DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...A
SIMILAR FOG SETUP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WHICH PRODUCED FOG THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...ADDED FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
INSOLATION...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED...ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL SUITES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND
IN REGARDS TO POPS WHICH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AT KBIS AND KJMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SATURDAY
WITH VSBYS AT/AROUND 5SM. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A
THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY
THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS MENTION FOR NOW AT KJMS WITH THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS DRY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE ACROSS OH WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSING TN THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT
GRASP ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AND SHOWS
THIS AREA MOVING NE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM 10Z TO 16Z. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER JET MOVES
INTO KY AND PROVIDES SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH PROVIDES SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY
WIND...LOOKS LOW BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITS A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. RAPID
MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL END ALL PRECIP CHANCES AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOON AFTER.
.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. A SECONDARY TROUGH FORMS
BEHIND THE QUICKLY EXITING LOW, AND BRINGS WITH IT ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ONE DOESN`T LOOK TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH,
BUT WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO MID-WEEK.
THEN OUR SECOND SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT AS MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES. WHEREVER THIS SYSTEM DECIDES TO TRACK NEAR WILL BE IN
FOR A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY AT THIS TIME, NO DAYS JUMP OUT
AS HAVING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT... BUT AGAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE
MAKES THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. ONE THREAT
THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ANY
FLOODING LATE IN THE WEEK IF THESE FIRST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AT, OR JUST BELOW, NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 63 87 62 / 90 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 60 82 60 / 90 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 59 84 58 / 90 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 58 80 54 / 90 40 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>015-
018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
316 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SEVERE WATCH 363 WHICH INCLUDED SMYTH AND
TAZEWELL COUNTIES. APPEARS DEEPER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA. THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.
END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.
FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1204 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA. THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.
END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.
FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZEDFLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON EXACT TIMING OF TSRA...THUS LEAVING OUT OF
TAFS ATTM. MORE CONFIDENT ON INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS PER INCREASING
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT THAT CIGS
COULD DROP TO IFR AFTER 06Z/2AM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN COOLED AIR BEFORE FORECASTING THE LOW CIGS.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1203 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA. THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.
END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.
FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZEDFLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON EXACT TIMING OF TSRA...THUS LEAVING OUT OF
TAFS ATTM. MORE CONFIDENT ON INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS PER INCREASING
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT THAT CIGS
COULD DROP TO IFR AFTER 06Z/2AM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN COOLED AIR BEFORE FORECASTING THE LOW CIGS.
PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
CONVECTION FIRING IN A BROAD REGION OF UNSTABLE AIR...JUST NEEDING A
FOCUS TO GET IT GOING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY PLACES ONE CLUSTER
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS TIED TO A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. OVER IA INTO NORTHERN ILL IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ENHANCED CU AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE THE RULE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT BOTH AREAS
OF PCPN TO CONTINUE - DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT...THE RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
RUNNING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND INCREASE POPS IF THIS BECOMES LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST...SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. DECENT QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL WARMING - ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CENTERED OVER IA. 300 MB
JET STREAK LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE LIFT. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALL THE
MODELS HAVE SAID AS MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/AREAS OF RAIN AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS BRING
THE SHORTWAVE IN BY 12Z SUN...WITH PCPN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THAT TIME. THE PCPN AND TROUGH
AXIS THEN SWINGS INTO WESTERN WI FOR SUN AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY...MOST OF WHICH LIES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER -
ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AT 12Z
SUN MORNING...BUT THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS IS POST THE PCPN SHIELD AND MUCH OF THE
DYNAMICS. NOT SURE IT WILL/COULD BE UTILIZED BY THE EXPECTED ONGOING
CONVECTION...OR FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALL IN
ALL...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
THE MORNING...EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD ONTO THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN
TROUGH CONFIGURATION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL FLOW WOULD SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE BITS OF ENERGY - AS EXPECTED - BUT
NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD...ALL-DAY KIND OF
RAIN EVENTS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR DON/T FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE BLANKET OF SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...REVISING AS THE DETAILS BECOMING
CLEARER.
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS. IN ADDITION...NO TO LIMITED TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AT KLSE WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LITTLE BIT OF RAIN THAT FELL
THIS EVENING. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CURRENTLY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT TSRA SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CO. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TODAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CALM WEATHER OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. LATEST 07Z HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EL PASO COUNTY. GENERALLY WEAK SE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AIDE IN STRATUS FORMATION...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 14Z ALLOWING FOR THE
LIFTING OF ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
18Z TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND WET
MTNS. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS CLOSE TO 1000J OF CAPE WITH GENERALLY
WEAK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE TSTMS ACTION CONFINED CLOSELY
TO MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT...
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED TSRA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE. DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CIRCULATIONS
LOOK TO BECOME DOMINATE...DIMINISHING THE CHANCES OF ANY STRATUS OR
FOG FORMATION FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -AL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SUN AS SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE CREST OF THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUN...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E-NE
BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT. STEERING
CURRENTS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL
AGAIN PREVENT STORMS FROM MOVING TOO FAR EAST OF I-25. WITH FRONT
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGF WARMER THAN SAT...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN
NEARLY UNCHANGED. BEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTH INTO NM
SUN EVENING...LEADING TO RATHER RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AFTER
SUNSET MOST LOCATIONS. ON MON...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME EVEN
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS...AS MID LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT NE DIRECTION AS
UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD. SUSPECT MOST TSRA WILL STAY WEST OF
I-25 THROUGH THE DAY...ENDING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LACK OF
FORCING. MAX TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.
TUE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS
WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE USUAL
CROP OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA...AGAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER TUE...RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WED...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN
TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED-
SAT...WHILE LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH HIGH SHIFTING WEST AND
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH...EXPECT TUE WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND ALL AREAS FROM WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB THIS
MORNING AS MOIST SE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z AS WESTERLY FLOW TAKES
OVER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS REMAIN CONFINED TO MTN TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WL LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD TODAY AND JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER WEST...WEST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS SHOWING SOME QPF THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z-23Z FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE WEST AND ALSO EAST
OF IL OVER INDIANA. A FEW BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN
2-5K FT SE OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO TO APPEAR IN WESTERN IL BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVERALL AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F WITH NORTH BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-25 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES A COUPLE OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IA AND EASTERN MO.
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL INCLUDE WESTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE
SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WARMING BACK UP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS OVERALL AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COMES BACK TO THE SFC
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS
TEMPERED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW MOVING
THROUGH AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON DRY FOR THE ECMWF, AND
THE GFS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUN EVENING/NIGHT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. DETAILS STILL NOT IN FOCUS
AND SPC HAS OPTED TO LEAVE A SMALL CHUNK OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS JUST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORKWEEK...MON NIGHT/TUES HAS SEVERAL
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE WAVE OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NWRLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MIDWEEK AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AND A MESSY SUMMER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
AND PLENTY OF RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MOSTLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER THE SITES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
AT BMI WHICH HAS BROKEN MVFR CIGS AT 2.5KFT. THIS WILL NOT LAST
LONG AND EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS HERE TOO. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS ALSO PRESENT ALL PIA/SPI AND BMI. DEC AND CMI DO NOT HAVE FOG
AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD THIS COMING HOUR...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER...AND HAVE IT AT ALL SITES. EXPECTING
SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO
WESTERN IL FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT I DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS. DIURNALLY
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AROUND 10-15KTS BUT THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED IN LOWER MI WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO DEVELOP A FEW 50DBZ SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IL AS CLOSE AS ROCHELLE
AND OREGON IN OGLE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FARTHER WEST
THEY GET THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SO NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH...SKIES IN THE CWA WERE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SO A RATHER COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX DIVING INTO
NORTHERN IA AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IN MANITOBA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY...APPARENTLY MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHES THE
ACTIVITY TOWARDS EVENING. I CERTAINLY CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 70S WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK VORT MAX TO AID LIFT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF NEAR 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROUGHLY OUR WESTERN HALF. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CAUSE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WHICH MEANS MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS BASED ON USING THE SURFACE PARCEL
TRAJECTORY METHOD WITH OUR AIRMASS COMING FROM NORTHERN WI WHERE
THEIR OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A DRY EVENING BUT THEN ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL SIMILAR IN ROLLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING
TO OVER 1 INCH WHILE SHOWALTERS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW BY SUNRISE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AGAIN BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 60S
FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION LIFT QUADRANT OF 80+ KT 300 MB JET DIVING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WITH TRIPLE POINT
ALL SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING S/E SUNDAY AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTN. HEAVIEST RAINS 0.5 TO 1+ INCHES SUGGESTED TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW AS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
CWA WHICH HAS BEEN HIT HARD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF LATE AND GROUND IS
SATURATED. CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AND
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION.
AT THIS TIME... EXCEPT FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AM MAINLY SOUTH/EAST CWA... I DO NOT
FORESEE A LOT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT
(WIDESPREAD 70S) LEADING TO LOW THREAT FOR A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER... IF MORE SUNSHINE AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATING THEN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE GIVEN PRESENCE
OF STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS DURING THE AFTN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN WRAP-AROUND OVER NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO TIME THESE WAVES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND UNFORTUNATELY DICTATES THE DAILY BARRAGE OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MANY DRY HOURS. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MVFR VIS BR TIL 16Z/27 THEN VFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
DID MENTION VCSH AT KCID BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THESE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IOWA BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE KCID. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
511 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER DEFINITION IN THE EARLY MORNING
SFC ANALYSIS...EXTENDING FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...TO JUST S OF A PRX...TO DEQ...TO N OF A LIT...TO JBR LINE
AS OF 09Z. CONVECTION RIDING A SE MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SINCE WANED AS IT PUSHES INTO SE AR/NE LA ATTM...ALTHOUGH
SCT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER NE TX JUST SE OF THE
FRONT...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE MI SW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NE AND SCNTRL TX. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS DID NOT INITILIZE WELL ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR HAVING TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND HINTS THAT IT SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER ESE ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR/JUST S OF THE ATTENDENT H850 TROUGH. GIVEN
THE WEAK SHEAR...THIS CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT
AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ONCE SFC HEATING COMMENCES. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND AN ABNORMALLY
DEEP WARM LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 27/00Z KSHV RAOB /WITH THE FZL NEAR
16.1 KFT/...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS THE AIR
MASS TO THE S IS WORKED OVER FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. DID MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE
CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S THE WEAK FRONT
WILL MIX TODAY...WITH THE GFS RATHER BULLISH IN MIXING IT S TO NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF SE TX/S LA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CONSCENSUS AMONGST THE WRF/ECMWF SUGGEST THE FRONT SLOWLY
NEARING THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THE CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING S BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING...THUS TAPERING THE CONVECTION OFF FROM N TO S. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WITH THE WRF/GFS
SUGGESTING THE H850 TROUGH PULLING UP STATIONARY JUST S OF I-20. STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY MAINLY OVER DEEP
E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE WEAK H850 TROUGH EXPECTED TO
WASH OUT BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO...WITH A
LIGHT SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN/T APPEAR TO CHANGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NW FLOW DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
MAMOUTH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN/MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. THE
PROGS DO SUGGEST THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SLIDING S
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE SWINGS SE ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE DOESN/T APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST WIDELY SCT CONVECTION TUESDAY AS THE RESIDUAL
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SETTLES FARTHER S. AFTERWARDS...ANY CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AS THE WRN COUS RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W...WHILE THE BROADING TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES
DISPLACED FARTHER NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THUS...MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FOR THE NRN ZONES...WHILE
SFC-H700 RIDGING BUILDS NW FROM THE NRN GULF INTO LA...WITH THE
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA...WHICH MAY SEE WEAK
SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUILD N TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 71 90 71 / 60 10 0 0
MLU 87 69 90 69 / 60 20 0 0
DEQ 87 65 88 66 / 5 0 0 0
TXK 88 67 89 69 / 20 5 0 0
ELD 86 66 89 67 / 30 5 0 0
TYR 88 70 90 71 / 60 10 0 0
GGG 88 70 90 71 / 60 10 0 0
LFK 89 73 92 73 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER TAF SITES NEAR I-69.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BECOME IFR BY 16Z AT ALL OF THOSE TAF SITES.
IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY TOO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST FOR LAN AND JXN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE FOR MKG... SOLID VFR AND NOT NEARLY AS WINDY. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY THERE ONCE THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVES OUT BY MID MORNING. GRR WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD TILL AROUND 16Z THEN EXPECT SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
TOO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET FOR BOTH MKG AND GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF OF RAINFALL MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED... BUT MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL PRECIP REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THRU THE EVENING HOURS PER LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER
THICK. THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
THINNER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
...SHOWER OR TWO EASTERN UPPER OTHERWISE MIXED SKIES TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. 1008MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS BACK
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS ILLINOIS/
INDIANA/OHIO/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER/WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CIRROSTRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD...AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A RAIN SHIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE I-96 CORRIDOR.
INDIANA SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY TOWARD LAKE
ERIE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGS ON
RATHER STUBBORNLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVERNIGHT
AND SLOWS WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...LOOKS TO BE REAL CLOSE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH
DOWNWARD BRANCH OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM HELPING KEEP
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING TOO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP SCRAPING PARTS OF GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH
HEATING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. COLLIDING LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME SPOTTY HIGH BASED SHOWERS (MOST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA). OTHERWISE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
70S (COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WINDS). WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER TODAY THE FARTHER SOUTH
(ACTUALLY SOUTHEAST) ONE GOES TODAY (NORTHEAST GUSTS 20-30MPH).
TONIGHT...QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER IN PROXIMITY TO OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (AROUND 50
TO THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH HINTING AT SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
POTENTIAL OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. A THIN RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME OFF. MOST MODELS HAVE 600 TO 800
J/KG OF MUCAPE...JUST NEED THE TRIGGER (SOMETHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SEEMS TO LACK QUITE A BIT). AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OUT UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED AND MAKE SURE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. BESIDES THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDER...SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON/T ENTER THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS (TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH EACH
RUN) AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
A DRIER ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE OVERHEAD...RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PWAT
VALUES OF BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S....WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY/S...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOWS TREKKING THROUGH...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IN BETWEEN EACH EVENT. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF EACH
EVENT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHERN EDGE OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TODAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS AS A RESULT FROM THUNDER BAY SOUTH TO SAGINAW BAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE NEARSHORE AREAS
PROBABLY INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE EASTERN U.P. WITH LAKE BREEZES
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
742 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER TAF SITES NEAR I-69.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BECOME IFR BY 16Z AT ALL OF THOSE TAF SITES.
IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY TOO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST FOR LAN AND JXN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE FOR MKG... SOLID VFR AND NOT NEARLY AS WINDY. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY THERE ONCE THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVES OUT BY MID MORNING. GRR WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD TILL AROUND 16Z THEN EXPECT SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
TOO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET FOR BOTH MKG AND GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT... MAINLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MORE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE... AN UNSEASONABLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICT HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (1.75 TO 2 INCH PW VALUES) POOLED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH IS HELPING FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION SUGGESTS A FEW DIFFERENT SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...BUT THESE SOURCES ARE NOT
REALLY IN PHASE. THE LATTER FACT WILL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WITH FINE DETAIL HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL
HIGH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE A SHOWER BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT. MAIN ALTERATIONS FROM PREVIOUS WERE TO RAISE POPS A
BIT IN EAST-CENTRAL MS (AND HIGH TEMPS CONVERSELY LOWERED A BIT
THERE) DUE TO HRRR INSISTENCE OF HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SINKS INTO THE HEART OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...NOTHING IN OUR MORNING SOUNDING
ANALYSIS POINTS TO MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS IN THE
HWO. CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE A BIT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
JUXTAPOSED IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
WATCHING THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY TRULY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED A GREAT DEAL BY THE POOR
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND VARIABLE
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION AND WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS AND TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION WHICH NECESSITATED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. I`M
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY LOSE STEAM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS WE CROSS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM. HOWEVER,
THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KTS, LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT ALONG THE 98
CORRIDOR. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
90 DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 60S
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. /DL/
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...COME MONDAY AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR CWA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DROPPING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SEND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL START OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BUT INCREASE TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY
MONDAY EVENING TO FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER
OUR SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE SEA BREEZE. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK OVER THE
CWA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS
RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 68 89 68 / 66 25 6 1
MERIDIAN 84 68 88 63 / 75 28 7 0
VICKSBURG 87 67 89 66 / 59 20 6 1
HATTIESBURG 89 72 91 68 / 70 48 18 10
NATCHEZ 87 69 86 69 / 69 39 10 10
GREENVILLE 86 66 89 66 / 46 9 0 0
GREENWOOD 84 65 87 65 / 53 11 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/19/DL/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Have added slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon based on
that there was upstream convection today, and forecast soundings
show that atmosphere will become unstable again today. Both the NAM
and GFS show a upper shortwave trough moving across the area during
the midday hours with the GFS developing some QPF over the area
during the afternoon. Even the HRRR supports this idea with it
breaking out isolated convection during the afternoon over most of
the CWA. This convection will die out quickly this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will remain below
normal even with mixing up to 850mb.
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
(Sunday and Monday)
A second, stronger trough will drop down in northwest upper flow on
Sunday night. There will be additional thunderstorms develop ahead
of it on Sunday as the atmosphere becomes unstable with MLCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A few isolated severe thunderstorms should
be possible over the area Sunday into Sunday evening and deep layer
shear of around 40kts. The trough will move off to the southeast
by Monday, though the atmosphere will still be unstable behind the
front today. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over part of the forecast area on Monday.
Temperatures these two days look slightly warmer as mixing will be
up into the 800-850mb range.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Upper pattern will remain amplified during this period with large
upper high in the western CONUS and mean trough in the east. This
will keep a meandering frontal boundary close to our area during
mid-late week. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Fog will dissipate in UIN later this morning, while the MVFR
stratus deck in COU and the St Louis metro area advects south of
this area. There will be scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds developing across the area late this morning and afternoon
with isolated afternoon showers/storms possible. The diurnal
cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening. The northerly
surface winds will become light early this evening as the surface
low over western OH moves further east and the surface ridge over
the Plains moves southeastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: The MVFR stratus cloud deck will advect south
of STL later this morning. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds will develop late this morning and afternoon. There may be
isolated showers and storms this afternoon, but will leave out of
the STL TAF for now due to sparse coverage expected. The cumulus
clouds should dissipate early this evening due to the loss of
daytime heating. The northerly surface wind will become light
early this evening, then become southwesterly by late Sunday
morning as the surface ridge shifts southeast of STL and a cold
front approaches.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL A REINFORCING
PACIFIC INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
THE RAP SUGGESTED H750MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TODAY WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NO RETURN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WOULD SUPPORT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. POSSIBLY COOLER THOUGH GIVEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP LOWS DOWN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATES THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW THE CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INITIALLY AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD A
FEW DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FAR SW
NEB COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
A CHANCE FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE...THUS LIMITED CHANGE TO ONGOING LOW CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXPANDS AGAIN AND WAVES GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRAW HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA INTO THE CNTL PLAINS TONIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ROLETTE COUNTY HAVE EXITED THAT AREA OVER
THE LAST HOUR. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS...REMOVED LOW POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AS OF 14Z. 12Z NAM IS COMING IN
NOW AND APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN. MAIN ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 18Z. NAM/GFS KEEP BEST COVERAGE ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF 110KT JET STREAK...MAINLY TO OUR EAST...THAT IS NOSING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 1000+
J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION AT KJMS UNTIL SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. ALSO HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KBIS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION AT KJMS UNTIL SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. ALSO HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KBIS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RETRENDED THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO EDITED POPS SLIGHTLY DROPPING CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING BY ABOUT 10% DUE TO DECREASED COVERAGE
AND MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH. HAVE MOVED THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A MESO LOW/CIRCULATION THAT CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS MAY ENHANCE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
THERE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY
INCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG AN
OZONA TO ABILENE TO GAINESVILLE LINE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT
ALREADY KICKED OFF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WITH MORE
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND WACO. MOST OF
THE MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITH POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINING. THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF BOTH SHOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
HEATING. DECENT RAIN CHANCES RUN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH...BUT IS SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT. WILL BUMP
UP THE BEGINNING OF VCTS AND TEMPO -TSRA FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO SITES 2-3 HOURS. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE ONSET OF CONVECTION CHANCES...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE AMENDED LATER IN THE DAY AS SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES AND THE FRONT ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS CONTINUE A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. CAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES
DURING THE WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE. THE
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRIES TO CONNECT WITH THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
WOULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF GOES BACK
TO BEING SLOWER ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 72 90 71 91 / 60 50 30 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 89 71 91 / 60 50 30 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 89 72 91 / 60 50 40 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 89 70 91 / 50 40 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 92 73 94 / 60 40 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 71 89 71 91 / 60 30 20 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 89 71 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 72 90 / 60 50 40 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 73 89 73 90 / 50 50 40 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 89 73 91 / 60 50 40 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 91 / 50 50 40 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...
OUR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING REFLECT AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS...OR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A GENEROUS AREA HAS JUST EXITED THE
NORTH...AND ANOTHER REGION IS ABOUT TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...UNTIL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST AROUND KBLF/KLWB THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD KBCB/KROA BEFORE
SEEING ADDED REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS...LOOKING AT LOW CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF KDAN TO INIT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT. THINK SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ADDED SHRA MIGHT HOLD
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE LONGER SO SLOWED DOWN
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTRW PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER BKN LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN ALL EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN
BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN OVERALL VICINITY MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
713 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST AROUND KBLF/KLWB THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD KBCB/KROA BEFORE
SEEING ADDED REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS...LOOKING AT LOW CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF KDAN TO INIT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT. THINK SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ADDED SHRA MIGHT HOLD
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE LONGER SO SLOWED DOWN
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTRW PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER BKN LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN ALL EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN
BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN OVERALL VICINITY MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CURRENTLY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT TSRA SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CO. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TODAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CALM WEATHER OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. LATEST 07Z HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EL PASO COUNTY. GENERALLY WEAK SE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AIDE IN STRATUS FORMATION...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 14Z ALLOWING FOR THE
LIFTING OF ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
18Z TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND WET
MTNS. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS CLOSE TO 1000J OF CAPE WITH GENERALLY
WEAK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE TSTMS ACTION CONFINED CLOSELY
TO MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT...
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED TSRA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE. DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CIRCULATIONS
LOOK TO BECOME DOMINATE...DIMINISHING THE CHANCES OF ANY STRATUS OR
FOG FORMATION FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -AL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SUN AS SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE CREST OF THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUN...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E-NE
BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT. STEERING
CURRENTS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL
AGAIN PREVENT STORMS FROM MOVING TOO FAR EAST OF I-25. WITH FRONT
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGF WARMER THAN SAT...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN
NEARLY UNCHANGED. BEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTH INTO NM
SUN EVENING...LEADING TO RATHER RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AFTER
SUNSET MOST LOCATIONS. ON MON...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME EVEN
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS...AS MID LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT NE DIRECTION AS
UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD. SUSPECT MOST TSRA WILL STAY WEST OF
I-25 THROUGH THE DAY...ENDING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LACK OF
FORCING. MAX TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.
TUE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS
WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE USUAL
CROP OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA...AGAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER TUE...RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WED...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN
TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED-
SAT...WHILE LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH HIGH SHIFTING WEST AND
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH...EXPECT TUE WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND ALL AREAS FROM WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE...PROMPTING VCTS FOR KALS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z BUT STAYING CLEAR OF KCOS AND KPUB. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A GALESBURG TO
BEARDSTOWN TO JACKSONVILLE LINE AT MID AFTERNOON FROM VERY WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH NEAR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z/7
PM LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA TONIGHT. DIRUNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT SUNSET AS WELL LEAVING FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA PROVINCE LINE WITH
CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MN AND EASTERN ND WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS MN/IA BY DAWN SUNDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT OVER
IL RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY NW OF IL RIVER. ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NW OF CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/7 AM SUNDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 1017 MB OVER THE MO VALLEY TO DRIFT
OVER IL OVERNIGHT. SO BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH SHOULD
DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
SLIPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F AT MID AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD BE WHERE LOWS REACH CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN MID 50S OVER
EASTERN IL AND UPPER 50S OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AS A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE WEEK. FIRST OF THE UPPER WAVES WAS TRACKING SSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST...HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
AND IS KEEPING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY JUST TO
OUR WEST. STILL COULD SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...IT APPEARS QPF VALUES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE EAST. STILL ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS GOING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH LOW POPS HOLDING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES...THE
HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT FOR NOW... WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THAT TIME FRAME...WILL KEEP THE 30-40 POPS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ADVERTISED OFF THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS NOT SHOWING MUCH
REFLECTION QPF-WISE FROM THAT SHORTWAVE.
PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK
MEANING THE DAILY THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES
OFFER SOME HOPE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS THE STRONGER
FLOW FURTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER NORTH AND BRING SOME
VERY WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH WATER
AS THERE IS IN THE SOIL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...IT SEEMS HARD TO BUY THE IDEA OF ANY PERSISTENT RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IT`S NOT THE FIRST
TIME THIS MODEL HAS TRIED TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...ONLY TO HAVE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS KEEP THE PATTERN MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE STRONGER FLOW DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST. WE CAN
ONLY HOPE WE SEE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN HEADING
INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM SUNDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-5K FT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BROKEN CEILINGS MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF PIA/SPI AND SOUTH
OF I-72. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO STAY WEST OF PIA/SPI PER HRRR AND RAP13
MODELS. THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO APPEAR AGAIN BY 15Z/SUNDAY
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
18Z/SUNDAY FROM I-55 NW. BREEZY NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
16-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER IL. WINDS BECOME SW AT
5-9 KTS AFTER 14Z/SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EAST OF IL
AND SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD TODAY AND JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER WEST...WEST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS SHOWING SOME QPF THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z-23Z FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE WEST AND ALSO EAST
OF IL OVER INDIANA. A FEW BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN
2-5K FT SE OF A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO TO APPEAR IN WESTERN IL BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVERALL AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F WITH NORTH BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-25 MPH ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES A COUPLE OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IA AND EASTERN MO.
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL INCLUDE WESTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE
SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WARMING BACK UP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS OVERALL AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COMES BACK TO THE SFC
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS
TEMPERED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW MOVING
THROUGH AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON DRY FOR THE ECMWF, AND
THE GFS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUN EVENING/NIGHT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH MAX
HEATING/INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. DETAILS STILL NOT IN FOCUS
AND SPC HAS OPTED TO LEAVE A SMALL CHUNK OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS JUST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORKWEEK...MON NIGHT/TUES HAS SEVERAL
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE SLOW EXIT OF THE WAVE OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NWRLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MIDWEEK AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AND A MESSY SUMMER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
AND PLENTY OF RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM SUNDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-5K FT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BROKEN CEILINGS MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF PIA/SPI AND SOUTH
OF I-72. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO STAY WEST OF PIA/SPI PER HRRR AND RAP13
MODELS. THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO APPEAR AGAIN BY 15Z/SUNDAY
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
18Z/SUNDAY FROM I-55 NW. BREEZY NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
16-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER IL. WINDS BECOME SW AT
5-9 KTS AFTER 14Z/SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EAST OF IL
AND SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM SE OF DBQ THROUGH
THE QUAD CITIES TO MACOMB IL. RECENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW VERY
WEAK RETURNS NEAR THE MACOMB AREA. THIS AXIS IS WHERE THE GREAT
LAKES AIRMASS WITH ITS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS CONVERGED WITH
THE WEAK MORE NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED
FROM EASTERN NEB TO NORTHERN WI.
IT WILL BE THIS ALONG AXIS WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FIRST DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL
BE LIMITED BY A CONVERGENT...SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MIGRATES OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THUS KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED IN LOWER MI WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO DEVELOP A FEW 50DBZ SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IL AS CLOSE AS ROCHELLE
AND OREGON IN OGLE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FARTHER WEST
THEY GET THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SO NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH...SKIES IN THE CWA WERE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SO A RATHER COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.
ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX DIVING INTO
NORTHERN IA AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IN MANITOBA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY...APPARENTLY MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHES THE
ACTIVITY TOWARDS EVENING. I CERTAINLY CAN/T IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 70S WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK VORT MAX TO AID LIFT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF NEAR 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROUGHLY OUR WESTERN HALF. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CAUSE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WHICH MEANS
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS BASED ON USING
THE SURFACE PARCEL TRAJECTORY METHOD WITH OUR AIRMASS COMING FROM
NORTHERN WI WHERE THEIR OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER
70S.
TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A DRY EVENING BUT THEN ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL SIMILAR IN ROLLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT FORCING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO OVER 1 INCH WHILE SHOWALTERS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE
NUMBERS. THEREFORE...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW BY
SUNRISE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AGAIN BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE
LOWER 60S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN OVERALL PATTERN WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT REGION LIFT QUADRANT OF 80 PLUS KT 300 MB JET DIVING
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE WITH TRIPLE POINT ALL SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING S/E SUNDAY AM WITH REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTN. HEAVIEST RAINS 0.5 TO 1 PLUS INCHES SUGGESTED TO FALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA VICINITY OF TRIPLE
POINT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SURGE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHICH HAS BEEN HIT
HARD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF LATE AND GROUND IS SATURATED.
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AND
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR A WHILE SUNDAY AM
MAINLY SOUTH/EAST CWA... I DO NOT FORESEE A LOT OF SOLAR
INSOLATION AND AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT (WIDESPREAD
70S) LEADING TO LOW THREAT FOR A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
HOWEVER... IF MORE SUNSHINE AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY OCCURS THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING THEN THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
INCREASE GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40
KTS DURING THE AFTN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT IN WRAP-AROUND OVER NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO TIME THESE
WAVES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT AND UNFORTUNATELY
DICTATES THE DAILY BARRAGE OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EVEN
THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MANY DRY HOURS. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO FEW AND FAR APART TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AND HAVE BEEN
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECASTS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS. TONIGHT...AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY SPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN IA...MAINLY NW OF THE CID AND DBQ
TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY MORNING...AND
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT NOON HAVE BEEN AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS NEARING 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...STORM
TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...AND THE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE LARGELY
BEHAVED. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND BASEMENTS IN
ALLEGHENY/LAWRENCE/WESTMORELAND COUNTIES EARLIER MEANT A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS PRUDENT.
THE WARM FRONT IS NEARING THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND PUSHING NORTH
AND TAKING THE STEADY RAIN WITH IT. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS WEST TO
THE THIN LINE ON RADAR INDICATING THE COLD FRONT. TO THIS
POINT...AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT STABLE...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN OHIO. SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE MORE CELLULAR
IN NATURE AND IF THEY CAN TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE BOUYANCY...HAVE
MORE THAN ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO DEVELOP INTO STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 500-1000J/KG SB CAPE
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
COLLOCATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA...NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...RESULTING IN SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW TAPS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR MOISTURE. STILL...PW
VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5" RESIDE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD TAP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH A BASE COAT
OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ALREADY IN THE AREAS SOILS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT RE-ENFORCES THE COOL AIR.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETRIOT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND
LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN.
THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY
WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIFTING TO MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO
VFR. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING IN WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE
HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING IFR CIGS CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AM WITH -RA/DZ.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME... LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SHARP RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS
TIME. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER DETROIT AND SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS OUR CWA HAS RECEIVED FROM ONE-QUARTER /0.25/ TO JUST
UNDER 2 /2.00/ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING
IN THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND TUCKER COUNTIES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-
029-031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT NOON HAVE BEEN AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS NEARING 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...STORM
TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...AND THE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE LARGELY
BEHAVED. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND BASEMENTS IN
ALLEGHENY/LAWRENCE/WESTMORELAND COUNTIES EARLIER MEANT A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS PRUDENT.
THE WARM FRONT IS NEARING THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND PUSHING NORTH
AND TAKING THE STEADY RAIN WITH IT. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS WEST TO
THE THIN LINE ON RADAR INDICATING THE COLD FRONT. TO THIS
POINT...AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT STABLE...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN OHIO. SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE MORE CELLULAR
IN NATURE AND IF THEY CAN TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE BOUYANCY...HAVE
MORE THAN ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO DEVELOP INTO STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 500-1000J/KG SB CAPE
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
COLLOCATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WV THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA...NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...RESULTING IN SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW TAPS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR MOISTURE. STILL...PW
VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5" RESIDE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD TAP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH A BASE COAT
OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ALREADY IN THE AREAS SOILS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT RE-ENFORCES THE COOL AIR.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS EARLY MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE A SHORT
REPRIEVE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIFTING TO MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO
VFR. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING IN WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE
HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING IFR CIGS CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AM WITH -RA/DZ.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME... LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SHARP RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS
TIME. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER DETROIT AND SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS OUR CWA HAS RECEIVED FROM ONE-QUARTER /0.25/ TO JUST
UNDER 2 /2.00/ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING
IN THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND TUCKER COUNTIES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ014-020>023-
029-031-073>076.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
133 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...HEADING INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO
INTERSTATE 69 AREA TODAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. BY TONIGHT THE STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THIS AREA
SO THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THOSE MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A RATHER UNUSUAL STORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
IT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
INTERSTATE 69 AREA WITH RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BUT AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO ALMA WILL HARDLY KNOW THE STORM IS
IN OUR AREA AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG EITHER. THE GLITCH FOR THIS FORECAST IT TO DECIDE
JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE RAIN ACTUALLY GETS TODAY.
THE GEFS CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THIS SYSTEM TELL THE STORY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE OF THE LOW FALLS TO BELOW 1000 MB...THAT IS
NEARLY 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL OR HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND ONCE IN TEN YEARS. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE COUPLED JET EVENTS WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND A LOT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM
SETS UP OVER OUR SE CWA TODAY BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
(BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA). THE MODELS HAVE BE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN GETS. FOR NOW I AM
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR AND CALLING THAT
GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TOO...THE RAP MODEL IS
SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER JACKSON FROM 8 AM THROUGH SUNSET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING HEIGHT TAPS INTO THIS SO I WOULD
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT
AREA... JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
ALL OF THIS MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH OF US
BY THEN...THIS WILL BE MORE OF A SHOWERY DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEST MON NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CLOSED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PASSING THROUGH. RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED AND AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR A
DRIER PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK FROM WED THROUGH THU.
THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL START MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE WRN
RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE RICH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UP DOWN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 2000 TO 300 FOOT RANGE AND VISIBILITY AROUND
3 TO 5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF GRR. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM IS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SO
NO HEADLINES SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF OF RAINFALL MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED... BUT MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
114 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL PRECIP REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THRU THE EVENING HOURS PER LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER
THICK. THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
THINNER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
...SHOWER OR TWO EASTERN UPPER OTHERWISE MIXED SKIES TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. 1008MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS BACK
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS ILLINOIS/
INDIANA/OHIO/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER/WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CIRROSTRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD...AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A RAIN SHIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE I-96 CORRIDOR.
INDIANA SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY TOWARD LAKE
ERIE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HANGS ON
RATHER STUBBORNLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVERNIGHT
AND SLOWS WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...LOOKS TO BE REAL CLOSE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH
DOWNWARD BRANCH OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM HELPING KEEP
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING TOO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP SCRAPING PARTS OF GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH
HEATING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. COLLIDING LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME SPOTTY HIGH BASED SHOWERS (MOST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA). OTHERWISE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
70S (COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WINDS). WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER TODAY THE FARTHER SOUTH
(ACTUALLY SOUTHEAST) ONE GOES TODAY (NORTHEAST GUSTS 20-30MPH).
TONIGHT...QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER IN PROXIMITY TO OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (AROUND 50
TO THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING LOWS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH HINTING AT SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
POTENTIAL OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. A THIN RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME OFF. MOST MODELS HAVE 600 TO 800
J/KG OF MUCAPE...JUST NEED THE TRIGGER (SOMETHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SEEMS TO LACK QUITE A BIT). AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OUT UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED AND MAKE SURE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. BESIDES THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDER...SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON/T ENTER THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS (TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH EACH
RUN) AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
A DRIER ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE OVERHEAD...RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PWAT
VALUES OF BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S....WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY/S...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOWS TREKKING THROUGH...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IN BETWEEN EACH EVENT. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF EACH
EVENT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN LOCKED
OVERHEAD. NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AOB 10
KTS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHERN EDGE OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TODAY...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS AS A RESULT FROM THUNDER BAY SOUTH TO SAGINAW BAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE NEARSHORE AREAS
PROBABLY INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND THE EASTERN U.P. WITH LAKE BREEZES
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Have added slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon based on
that there was upstream convection today, and forecast soundings
show that atmosphere will become unstable again today. Both the NAM
and GFS show a upper shortwave trough moving across the area during
the midday hours with the GFS developing some QPF over the area
during the afternoon. Even the HRRR supports this idea with it
breaking out isolated convection during the afternoon over most of
the CWA. This convection will die out quickly this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will remain below
normal even with mixing up to 850mb.
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
(Sunday and Monday)
A second, stronger trough will drop down in northwest upper flow on
Sunday night. There will be additional thunderstorms develop ahead
of it on Sunday as the atmosphere becomes unstable with MLCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A few isolated severe thunderstorms should
be possible over the area Sunday into Sunday evening and deep layer
shear of around 40kts. The trough will move off to the southeast
by Monday, though the atmosphere will still be unstable behind the
front today. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over part of the forecast area on Monday.
Temperatures these two days look slightly warmer as mixing will be
up into the 800-850mb range.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Upper pattern will remain amplified during this period with large
upper high in the western CONUS and mean trough in the east. This
will keep a meandering frontal boundary close to our area during
mid-late week. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015
Nly flow will continue for terminals this afternoon. CU field is
expected to continue to develop with much of the area becoming BKN
this afternoon. Isod to widely sct SHRA are expected to develop
this afternoon, but have not put in TAF attm due to low chance of
impacting a terminal. Otherwise, cu will dissipate this evening
leaving much of tonight clear. FG development is possible with
light and vrb winds. Winds will become swly Sun morning ahead of
an approaching system. Precip may reach UIN shortly before 18z
Sun, but have kept out of TAF attm due to low confidence in
timing.
Specifics for KSTL: Nly winds will persist this afternoon with cu
field expected to become BKN for much of this afternoon. Isod to
widely sct SHRA are expected to develop this afternoon. CU
expected to dissipate early this eve leaving overnight clear.
Winds will become swly Sun morning ahead of an approaching system.
Precip may reach terminal before 00z Mon, but have kept out of TAF
for now.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
AS BOTH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GROW
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. SOME MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
THIS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATING SOME SPLOTCHY
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
OTHER THAN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A FAIRLY SEASONABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NERN CONUS. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MN AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING
SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NRN NEB. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WI/IA/IN AREA BY EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT PUSHING THROUGH ROUGHLY 2/3 OF
THE CWA BY 18Z...AND NORTHERLY WINDS CWA-WIDE BY EVENING. THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FRONT USHERS IN THOSE NRLY WINDS AND KEEPS DPTS ON THE NICER SIDE IN
THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOESNT BRING IN A NOTABLE COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK /MON AND TUES/
REMAIN DRY. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ON MONDAY...BUT A COUPLE SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK
TO BE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REGION...AND AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...SLIDE THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...CAUSING IT TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH S/SWRLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT/TUES AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THOSE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING LOWERS
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE FORECAST GOES...PLENTY OF THINGS TO IRON
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGHS WED THROUGH FRI REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 5K WILL BE NOTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KGRI
AND KEAR REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN. ON SUNDAY MORNING...A FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15KTS
BUT LITTLE OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AT MOST. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL A REINFORCING
PACIFIC INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
THE RAP SUGGESTED H750MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TODAY WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NO RETURN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WOULD SUPPORT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. POSSIBLY COOLER THOUGH GIVEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP LOWS DOWN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATES THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW THE CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH INITIALLY AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD A
FEW DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FAR SW
NEB COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
A CHANCE FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE...THUS LIMITED CHANGE TO ONGOING LOW CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE
EXPANDS AGAIN AND WAVES GET PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FORECASTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AT TERMINALS
KLBF AND KVTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND PROCEED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A LINE FROM VTN TO OGA BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY FOR FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES..NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON
LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE BEGINS TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT IN MOIST AIR. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1-1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST PWATS LOCATED AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-09Z, INCREASING TO 50-
60KTS BETWEEN 09Z-21Z. MODEL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO MAGNITUDE OF
THIS JET IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INFLUENCE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM
0.5-1.5 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE RAINFALL TONIGHT
WILL BE THE HEAVIEST OF THIS EVENT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
HOWEVER, POTENTIAL MIXING IS QUESTIONABLE SINCE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING STEADY RAINFALL. BUFKIT MODELS SHOW THE JET
REMAINING ABOVE THE INVERSION. EXPECT SUMMITS TO EXPERIENCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGH GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET KEEPING SUMMITS BREEZY AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. AS THE 500MB LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE
AND THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS OVER THE REGION, MODELS INDICATE
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO MIX DOWN IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DRYING. BUT AS THE DRY
SLOW MOVES NORTHWARD, SO DOES THE JET. THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNSLOPING STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, MAXING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING, MORE LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN THE DRY
SLOT WITH AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH STILL AFFECTS
THE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. RIDGING EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT
THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY. EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS THROUGH
MONDAY MID DAY OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.3
INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND
60S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 4OS TO UPPER 50S. BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO ENCROACH UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED CONUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN IN THE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED, FEATURING LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BENEFIT FROM GOOD CONSISTENCY REGARDING WHAT SHOULD BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS
BEEN MIRED IN JUNE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS - COOLER WITH RESPECT TO THE HIGHS.
DAILY SPECIFICS TO FOLLOW...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: AN INITIALLY NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER GREAT LAKES REGION ASSUMES A NEGATIVELY TILT THIS PERIOD, AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRODUCES SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IN
REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS IN TERMS OF THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY, AS LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
KEEPS INSTABILITY GENERALLY AT/BELOW 500 J/KG CAPE. HOWEVER, THIS
MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC ASCENT WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH, AND THERE IS 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER (0-6 KM AGL)
SHEAR PER GFS SOUNDINGS. PWATS DO INCREASE UP TO 1.25 INCHES
SUPPORTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WITH TAPERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
QPF AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF-INCH OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POST-FRONTAL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AS
1000-500MB THICKNESS TROUGH BUILDS OVER NORTH COUNTRY. THOUGH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY LATE, CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES (+6 TO +8C) SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: BRIEF RESPITE IN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS IN SFC AND ALOFT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE L/M70S THURSDAY AND M/U70S BY FRIDAY, THOUGH
RATHER COOL LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE U40S TO M/U50S.
THOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY TO PIN SPECIFIC DETAILS, A LOOK AT THE
FOURTH OF JULY DOESN`T LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR FIREWORKS WATCHING,
WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LATER ON
THE FOURTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR BUT WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GREATER AVIATION IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR
(PERIODS IFR CEILINGS) IN STEADY RAIN. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL.
VIS SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING/THICKENING WITH TIME, TRENDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. I`VE LARGELY USED RECENT HRRR AND BTV WRF OUTPUT TO
TIME WARM- FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO OUR TAF AIRSPACE. MOST TAFS SHOULD SEE RAIN STEADILY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY (3-6 SM) AFTER 02Z. BUFKIT RH PROGS SEEMS
TO BE UNDER DOING CEILINGS, AS THERE ARE ALREADY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHIELD. KEPT THIS
LINE OF THINKING FOR CEILING FCST. LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING STEADILY (UP TO 45 KTS) AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LLWS. WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, EXCEPT
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT RUT ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES.
WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD AND ASSOCIATED LLWS LIFTS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. CONTINUED MVFR BEHIND IT THOUGH, AS DRY-SLOT LIFTS
NORTH WITH A CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT RUT, WINDS ELSEWHERE
EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.
12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH TAPERING VFR SHOWERS
12-18Z MONDAY.
18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY OVER 2"
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED RISES, WITH SOME
STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS AND WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PARTICULAR
RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER,
SARANAC RIVER AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL EXPERIENCED FLOODING
RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE
ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER,
AND MOUNT MANSFIELD.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT
WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED
RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26.
AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922.
AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE, BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH
SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSTREAM RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY BEEN
LIGHT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND 6 HR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO HALF AN INCH. THERE
ARE SOME REPORTS IN CENTRAL PA BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN CURRENTLY AROUND SYRACUSE NY TO MOVE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS, ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BETWEEN 22Z-00Z. MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I
MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT
EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL
TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z
MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL
OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE`VE HOISTED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT IN THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS. SEE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN
ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN
CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,
AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS
THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND
WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH STRONG INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
500MB RIDGING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEATHER IS BRIEFLY QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18Z TUE THROUGH 03Z WED...AND WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY FIELDS. GIVEN ANTECENDENT MOIST
CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO ADD TO EXISTING HYDRO
CONCERNS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AND MOS GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE
DIURNAL COOLING AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY LOW-MID 70S WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. KEPT POPS 40-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DEVELOPING NW FLOW BEHIND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TRENDING DRIER THU/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR BUT WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GREATER AVIATION IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR
(PERIODS IFR CEILINGS) IN STEADY RAIN. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL.
VIS SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING/THICKENING WITH TIME, TRENDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. I`VE LARGELY USED RECENT HRRR AND BTV WRF OUTPUT
TO TIME WARM- FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO OUR TAF AIRSPACE. MOST TAFS SHOULD SEE RAIN STEADILY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY (3-6 SM) AFTER 02Z. BUFKIT RH PROGS SEEMS
TO BE UNDERDOING CEILINGS, AS THERE ARE ALREADY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHIELD. KEPT THIS
LINE OF THINKING FOR CEILING FCST. LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING STEADILY (UP TO 45 KTS) AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LLWS. WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, EXCEPT
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT RUT ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES.
WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD AND ASSOCIATED LLWS LIFTS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. CONTINUED MVFR BEHIND IT THOUGH, AS DRY-SLOT
LIFTS NORTH WITH A CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT RUT, WINDS
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.
12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH TAPERING VFR SHOWERS
12-18Z MONDAY.
18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN, WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES RANGING FROM 1-2" AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY OVER
2" ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED
RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS
AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS.
PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE
AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL
EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT
PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S
ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER,
AND MOUNT MANSFIELD.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT
WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED
RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26.
AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922.
AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE, BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH
SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND EVENING ACROSS VERMONT. FOR MORE ON
THIS READ THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I
MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT
EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL
TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z
MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL
OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE`VE HOISTED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT IN THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS. SEE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN
ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN
CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,
AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS
THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND
WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH STRONG INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
500MB RIDGING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEATHER IS BRIEFLY QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18Z TUE THROUGH 03Z WED...AND WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY FIELDS. GIVEN ANTECENDENT MOIST
CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO ADD TO EXISTING HYDRO
CONCERNS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AND MOS GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE
DIURNAL COOLING AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY LOW-MID 70S WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. KEPT POPS 40-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
DEVELOPING NW FLOW BEHIND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TRENDING DRIER THU/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR BUT WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GREATER AVIATION IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES DETERIORATE TO MVFR
(PERIODS IFR CEILINGS) IN STEADY RAIN. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL.
VIS SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING/THICKENING WITH TIME, TRENDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. I`VE LARGELY USED RECENT HRRR AND BTV WRF OUTPUT
TO TIME WARM- FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO OUR TAF AIRSPACE. MOST TAFS SHOULD SEE RAIN STEADILY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY (3-6 SM) AFTER 02Z. BUFKIT RH PROGS SEEMS
TO BE UNDERDOING CEILINGS, AS THERE ARE ALREADY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHIELD. KEPT THIS
LINE OF THINKING FOR CEILING FCST. LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING STEADILY (UP TO 45 KTS) AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SUPPORT
PERIODS OF LLWS. WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, EXCEPT
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT RUT ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES.
WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD AND ASSOCIATED LLWS LIFTS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. CONTINUED MVFR BEHIND IT THOUGH, AS DRY-SLOT
LIFTS NORTH WITH A CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT RUT, WINDS
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.
12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH TAPERING VFR SHOWERS
12-18Z MONDAY.
18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN, WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES RANGING FROM 1-2" AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY OVER
2" ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WATERSHED
RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS
AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS.
PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE
AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL
EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT
PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S
ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER,
AND MOUNT MANSFIELD.
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT
WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED
RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26.
AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922.
AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.
AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE HUMID DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS ONGOING AND TRACKING ENE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH REMNANT MCV
CIRCULATIONS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS. THE SEA-BREEZE
INTERACTIONS MAY HELP SPIKE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND A SPIN-UP MESO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES STREWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SUPPORT STRENGTHENS AND THIS REMAINS FAVORED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
MODELS SHOW AS UPPER WINDS PARALLEL THE FRONT...CONVECTION MAY
WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...LOW AND MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT. THUS ANY STORMS THAT ARE
MAINTAINED TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SWIFT FORWARD MOTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARSHORE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET (200MB) INTENSIFIES THE
PUSH FOR THE FRONT BECOMES NON EXISTENT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SIGNAL. WILL WAIT FOR MORE CERTAINTY
BEFORE ADDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT I DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WONDERFUL DAY MONDAY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND MIXING DOWN AT MAX
HEATING. CERTAINLY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERALL I TWEAKED TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY. THE HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS BELOW 90
SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS
WONT BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND
ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION
WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY
FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE
TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING
DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING
WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE
LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A BIT OF A LULL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS WILL GIVE
US BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT HAVE
THAT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THINK WE WILL GET ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...CERTAINLY WEST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLAPPING FOR SW 15-25
KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KT TONIGHT. ANY TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
OBTAIN RADAR UPDATES BEFORE HEADING OUT. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS SEAS 4-7
FEET OVERNIGHT AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE...AND SE OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS
COMPOSED OF SW WAVES 4-5 FEET EVERY 6 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2
FEET IN 8-9 SECONDS INTERVALS. IN AND NEAR TSTMS A HEAVY CHOP
WOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP ON THE WATERS. SW-W WINDS EARLY SUNDAY
EXPECTED 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL NEVER REALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE
WATERS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY ON THE ORDER OF 15-
20 KNOTS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE WINDS BEGIN A LONG DECENT DOWN TO TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JETTING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS
PERSIST. BY MONDAY THE SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS
INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT
BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS
INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3
FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM
THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE HUMID DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM SATURDAY...UPSTREAM MCV GROUPINGS WERE SETTING OFF
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WESTWARD INTO EAST
GEORGIA. LOW-ANGLE EARLY MORNING SUNLIGHT SHOWS WELL THE EMBEDDED
CUMULUS TOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSES. VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS
THESE PERTURBATIONS ARE NOW GETTING PICKED UP BY INCREASING SW
SHEAR. OFF-SETTING THIS FACTOR HOWEVER IS DISPLAYED WELL IN VSBL
ANIMATIONS THE POCKETS OF EARLY SUN WARMING THE GROUND. THE MCV
FAMILY WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN POP VALUES INTO MIDDAY...AS THE
FIRST SWIRL TRAVERSES MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN ANOTHER ON THE
HEELS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS FADING WITH THE
PERTURBATIONS...INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS FILL IN ALONG IT.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TIED TO THE LINE OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WHERE AN SPC ENHANCED RISK IS POSTED FOR THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WHICH SLOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR TO THE BEACHES...CLEARING TO
SEA THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SPRING-LIKE COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
NOW...UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS SLOWER AND LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA DURING
EARLY SUNDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS NOW PROGGED TO STALL ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST...TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE...AND WILL NOT REALLY PUSH AWAY AND
WASH OUT UNTIL A SECONDARY VORT SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS/SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/CLOUDS POSSIBLY INCREASING BACK TO
THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SECONDARY VORT TRIES TO SPAWN WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
WPC GRAPHICS...AND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
HUMID...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POP AND TEMP BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS W/SW AND EVEN MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS COOL
AND DRY AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO THE UPR 80S
WELL INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OFFSHORE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL
ADVECTION...ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY BEEN. THIS WILL ALLOW MINS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND
ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION
WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY
FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE
TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING
DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING
WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE
LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
A BIT OF A LULL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS WILL GIVE
US BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT HAVE
THAT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THINK WE WILL GET ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...CERTAINLY WEST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM SATURDAY...S TO SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 FT ATTM WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT BY TONIGHT. AN SCA IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE
FORECAST AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. SEA
SPECTRUM DOMINATED BY SW WAVES 3-4 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS TODAY AND SW
WAVES 4-6 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS TONIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO OBTAIN A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING OUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND THEN STALL JUST INLAND OR RIGHT ALONG THE COAST MUCH OF
SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WKND...ALTHOUGH A VERY BRIEF TURN TO THE NORTH
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHORT AND WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS...AS SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY...WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 15-20 KTS...FALLING TO 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR A FEW 6 FT
SEAS LEFTOVER FROM SATURDAY...BUT THESE WILL FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND BECOME 3-4 FT BY MONDAY WITH THE SW WIND CHOP
REMAINING PREDOMINANT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS
INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT
BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS
INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3
FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM
THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF 19Z THE FRONT
HAD CROSSED ROLLA...BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
REMAIN ON WESTERN FLANK OF 110KT JET STREAK...IN LESS FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A LITTLE CIN IN PLACE AS
OF 19Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WAS ALSO IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA HOWEVER
WHICH MAY BE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS
HANDLED THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL...ALTHOUGH IT HAS OVERDONE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST HAD CONF CALL WITH SPC AND WILL ISSUE TORNADO
WATCH FOR OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF FOSTER...STUTSMAN...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND LIKELY STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.
IT IS A MINI PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE
WAVES WILL BE KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED
THE PERIOD WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS
NOT REALISTIC.
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING THE STATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONTINUED VCTS FOR KBIS AND KJMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE NEAR KJMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS OVER KIDDER COUNTY. LATEST SPC UPDATE TO DAY 1 HAS PUT THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ENHANCED CATEGORY FOR SEVERE...BUT NO
CHANGES OVER OUR AREA WITH SLIGHT RISK AREA CLIPPING OUR FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ROLETTE COUNTY HAVE EXITED THAT AREA OVER
THE LAST HOUR. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS...REMOVED LOW POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AS OF 14Z. 12Z NAM IS COMING IN
NOW AND APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN. MAIN ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 18Z. NAM/GFS KEEP BEST COVERAGE ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF 110KT JET STREAK...MAINLY TO OUR EAST...THAT IS NOSING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 1000+
J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESIDES AT KJMS FROM 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION AT KJMS UNTIL SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. ALSO HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KBIS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
441 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR CLEVELAND WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PRESSING EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER WEST HEAVY WRAP AROUND
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE TRIMMED THE FLOOD WATCH REMOVING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY.
HEAVY RAIN STILL LIKELY FOR NW OH IN THE WRAP AROUND AND ACROSS
THE EAST WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION. IN BETWEEN RUNOFF ACROSS FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO STILL CAUSING RISES. SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THE LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT JUST REACHING NW PA BY
MORNING. SO AREAS THAT HAVE A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING WILL SEE
SHOWERS RETURN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RAINFALL IN NW OHIO WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. SO WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES STILL REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THE RAIN WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS NW OHIO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
TOWARD LATE EVENING. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ON THE LAKE FROM THE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS.
PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR AS OF 20Z/4P:
TOLEDO (TOL) 2.12
TOLEDO (TDZ) 2.55
CLEVELAND 2.76
YOUNGSTOWN 1.43
ERIE PA 1.18
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KCLE MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT
TAF FORECAST. VARIABLE CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
MUCH OF THE IFR OCCURRING IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
HAVE BEEN THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT ON
THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HAVE A SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...MAINLY FOR THE KTOL AREA.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IFR INTO MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. NON VFR
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AS GALES
PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE INDICATE THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND PORTIONS OF LUCAS
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING
FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO
RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL
KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GOING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>019-
022-023-033-089.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-007-009.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>145-162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG IN NORTHERN JACKSON AND A
GOOD PORTION OF DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY WITH LIFTED INDICIES
CLOSE TO -4. THE INSTABILITY IS THERE, BUT SO FAR NO TRIGGER. HENCE
WHY WE HAVE NOT SEE ANY ACTION SO FAR. HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR
REFLECTIVITY MODELS IS SHOWING RETURNS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT
EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY EAST. THIS MODEL
ACTUALLY PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH (PER THE RAP SOLUTION). THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE VISIBLE IMAGE IS ALREADY SHOWING CU
STARTING TO DEVELOP.
IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY, BUT THE ONLY THING THAT COULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOUD COVER.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT, IT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME 850 LI`S
WILL GET INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY. SO THERE IS CONCERN WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PARTS OF
JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...CURRY...COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY...CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS
IN THESE AREAS. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING UP. SO THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER TYPICALLY WHEN WE GET
NOCTURNAL STORMS, THEY NORMALLY PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. OF
NOTE THE 700-500MB WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25-30 KTS,
SO THEY WILL BE FASTER MOVING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS. IT WILL STILL BE TO
OUR SOUTH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOT ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...THEREFORE
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT WHICH POINT THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL END
UP COOLER, MAINLY AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHRINK AND BE MAINLY CONFINED TO KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE ACTION
TUESDAY AS WE GET A MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA, SO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WE`LL
HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE BUILDING WESTWARD BEYOND TUESDAY WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING WITH TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES LIKELY AGAIN FOR
MANY WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON AND NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE
PATTERN IS DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE WERE EXPERIENCING NOW. FOR ONE THE
HIGHEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER THERE`S SOME INDICATIONS WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. STAY TUNED. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AT THE COAST...THEN MARINE STRATUS
RETURNS WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2-3Z AND LASTING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TONIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MAINLY WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS REDEVELOPING. SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 245 PM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. PROFILES OVER THE EAST SIDE ARE
STILL VERY DRY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 17-
20KFT, SO STORMS THAT FORM THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE DRY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE SISKIYOUS, UP ALONG THE CASCADES, AND OVER TO THE EAST
SIDE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECT SOME
STORMS TO BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE WEST SIDE TOO.
SINCE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WETTER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...KEEPING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS TO THE
EAST SIDE.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ616-617-619>625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
925 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
CLOUDS MOVING NORTH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS
CLEARING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE MOVING NORTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE AT MEDFORD IS
ALREADY 81 DEGREES WITH A DEWPOINT OF 59. IN FACT DEWPOINTS ARE
HIGHER OVER MOST LOCATIONS, SO THERE IS MORE JUICE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. ALSO THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS PW VALUE OF 1.31
INCHES WITH A FAIRLY MOST LAYER FROM AROUND 550 TO 330 MB. THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS
CENTERED FROM KLAMATH COUNTY INTO EASTERN JACKSON AND NORTH INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. SO FAR THE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN
DOUGLAS COUNTY, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OF NOTE
LOOKING AT THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES INCREASING
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON IN THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE
IN CIN VALUES. ALSO SURFACE BASED LI`S ARE -4 C IN SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AND
CLEARING WILL DEVELOP THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MOSTLY WITH THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION, OTHERWISE THE THINKING MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN COOS/DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE THIS MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. IFR CIGS PROBABLY RETURN TO THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MAINLY WITHIN 10 NM FROM SHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS REDEVELOPING. SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 27 JUNE 2015...A SHORT
WAVE OFFSHORE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THERE CAN STILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, BUT THESE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE A BIT OF A BREAK ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE SOME TIME TO RE-LOAD. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR STRONG HEATING IN MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 100S IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE EAST SIDE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. PROFILES OVER THE EAST SIDE ARE STILL VERY DRY IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 17-20KFT, SO STORMS THAT FORM
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE DRY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE SISKIYOUS, UP ALONG THE CASCADES, AND OVER TO THE EAST
SIDE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECT SOME
STORMS TO BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE WEST SIDE TOO.
SINCE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WETTER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. IT MAY TAKE
ALL DAY TO DO THIS, SO THE HEADLINES FOR THE WEST SIDE MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON, IF NOT EARLY EVENING. WE`LL
MAINTAIN THE HEADLINES AS IS THOUGH FOR NOW AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN OUR UNSETTLED
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECORD HEAT YESTERDAY. MEDFORD SET A NEW
RECORD OF 107, MOUNT SHASTA CITY 99...KLAMATH FALLS 98...ALTURAS
WITH 101...AND MONTAGUE TIED WITH 104.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ARE
FEEDING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WAS ABOUT 250 LIGHTNING STRIKES...CONCENTRATED OVER
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW STRIKES HERE AND THERE, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUBSIDED AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY...HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY SO WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE HOLDING
OFF ON SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN LESS CLOUDS AND MORE SUN
FILTERING THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECASTED. ON THE
OTHER HAND, MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. EITHER WAY, IT WILL STILL BE HOT, SO
STUCK WITH THE ORIGINAL IDEA AND ONLY TWEAKED TEMPERATURES SOME.
AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO FOR TODAY...THE LACK OF A SHORTWAVE UNTIL
THIS LATER AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LATE EVENING...COULD MEAN THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WON`T KICK UP UNTIL THEN. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE, ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF ENERGY TO TAP INTO. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE MOISTURE INVOLVED SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE WET. THERE ARE STILL SOME
SOUNDING PROFILES ON THE EAST SIDE SHOWING THE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 17KFT. THIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE DRY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY, NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH NUDGES CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COOLING
TEMPERATURES SOME AND PUSHING THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL", THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THIS "COOLING" WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND RETURN TO THE UPPER 90`S EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
TUESDAY. -MND
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ615>625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ023.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH VERY WET PRE- EXISTING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THE SHIELD OF STEADY MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND
BECOME BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG /NEARLY 5 SIGMA/ LLVL SERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
AN APPROX 4-5 HOUR WINDOW /FROM 21Z TDY - 02Z SUN/ OF SEVERE TSRA
POTENTIAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAYER OF PENN COUNTIES
/MAINLY SOMERSET COUNTY/ AND POINTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81...WHERE
12Z OPER MODELS AND HOURLY RUNS OF HRRR INDICATE THE OVERLAP OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SREF CAPE WITH THE DEPARTING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS LLJ. TORNADO WATCH 364 RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATL PIEDMONT AND VA COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WOULD/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SECOND WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SCENT AND SERN PENN IN A
FEW HOURS...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOSE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY SERLY GRADIENT WIND /30-40 MPH ON THE
RIDGES/ HAS ALREADY CAUSED SPORADIC DOWNED TREES. ANY STRONGER
TSRA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS IN SOUTHERN PENN WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ISSUE.
SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL SHOWERS...BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MUCH
LIGHTER/VARIABLE WIND AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE/OCCLUDED FRONT
DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE PRECIPITOUS WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER
CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
MODERATED BY A LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL EMANATE FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER AS THESE TROUGHS ARE SHALLOWER...LESS MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER
ACCORDINGLY. NONETHELESS...THIS SERIES OF PERTERBATIONS WILL
PROLONG THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR WITH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS WHAT HAS NOW
TRANSITIONED INTO SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CLEVELAND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AND DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE FURTHER TO IFR-LIFR LATE TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY AT KBFD AND KJST/ AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN THE 2-3KFT AGL LAYER WILL LEAD
TO LLWS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON-THU...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH VERY WET PRE- EXISTING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THE SHIELD OF STEADY MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND
BECOME BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG /NEARLY 5 SIGMA/ LLVL SERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
AN APPROX 4-5 HOUR WINDOW /FROM 21Z TDY - 02Z SUN/ OF SEVERE TSRA
POTENTIAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAYER OF PENN COUNTIES
/MAINLY SOMERSET COUNTY/ AND POINTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81...WHERE
12Z OPER MODELS AND HOURLY RUNS OF HRRR INDICATE THE OVERLAP OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SREF CAPE WITH THE DEPARTING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS LLJ. TORNADO WATCH 364 RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATL PIEDMONT AND VA COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WOULD/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SECOND WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SCENT AND SERN PENN IN A
FEW HOURS...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOSE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY SERLY GRADIENT WIND /30-40 MPH ON THE
RIDGES/ HAS ALREADY CAUSED SPORADIC DOWNED TREES. ANY STRONGER
TSRA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS IN SOUTHERN PENN WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ISSUE.
SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL SHOWERS...BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MUCH
LIGHTER/VARIABLE WIND AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE/OCCLUDED FRONT
DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE PRECIPITOUS WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER
CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
MODERATED BY A LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL EMANATE FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER AS THESE TROUGHS ARE SHALLOWER...LESS MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER
ACCORDINGLY. NONETHELESS...THIS SERIES OF PERTERBATIONS WILL
PROLONG THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS...WHILE THE SCENT AND CENTRAL MTNS SEE
VSBYS AND CIGS LIFT A BIT TO MVFR OR IFR IN MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...AND ITS SWD TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE MAY BE THIS BRIEF UPTICK IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN 21Z
SAT-01Z SUN...CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE FURTHER TO
IFR-LIFR LATE TONIGHT /ESPECIALLY AT KBFD AND KJST/ AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS.
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN THE 2-3KFT AGL LAYER WILL LEAD
TO LLWS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON-THU...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH VERY WET PRE- EXISTING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLOODING ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
THE SHIELD OF STEADY MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND
BECOME BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NE HALF OF PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG /NEARLY 5 SIGMA/ LLVL SERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.
AN APPROX 4-5 HOUR WINDOW /FROM 21Z TDY - 02Z SUN/ OF SEVERE TSRA
POTENTIAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAYER OF PENN COUNTIES
/MAINLY SOMERSET COUNTY/ AND POINTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81...WHERE
12Z OPER MODELS AND HOURLY RUNS OF HRRR INDICATE THE OVERLAP OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SREF CAPE WITH THE DEPARTING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS LLJ. TORNADO WATCH 364 RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATL PIEDMONT AND VA COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WOULD/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SECOND WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SCENT AND SERN PENN IN A
FEW HOURS...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOSE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY SERLY GRADIENT WIND /30-40 MPH ON THE
RIDGES/ HAS ALREADY CAUSED SPORADIC DOWNED TREES. ANY STRONGER
TSRA WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS IN SOUTHERN PENN WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ISSUE.
SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL SHOWERS...BECOMING
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MUCH
LIGHTER/VARIABLE WIND AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE/OCCLUDED FRONT
DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
DOWNSTREAM OF A MIGRATORY AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
HOT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH EACH WAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL PACK MUCH LESS OF A
PUNCH COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT NONETHELESS IT WILL PROLONG THE PERSISTENT
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR
SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS...WHILE THE SCENT AND CENTRAL MTNS SEE
VSBYS AND CIGS LIFT A BIT TO MVFR OR IFR IN MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT...AND ITS SWD TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE MAY BE THIS BRIEF UPTICK IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN 21Z
SAT-01Z SUN...CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE FURTHER TO
IFR-LIFR LATE TONIGHT /ESPECIALLY AT KBFD AND KJST/ AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS.
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN THE 2-3KFT AGL LAYER WILL LEAD
TO LLWS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS.
MON-THU...GENERALLY VFR...BUT CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR SWEETWATER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRT WILL SEE SOME SHRA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT
AFFECT CIGS/VIS. LATER THIS EVENING MORE TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH AND ALL CONVECTION ENDED BY AROUND 06Z. THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL FORM IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RETRENDED THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO EDITED POPS SLIGHTLY DROPPING CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING BY ABOUT 10% DUE TO DECREASED COVERAGE
AND MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH. HAVE MOVED THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A MESO LOW/CIRCULATION THAT CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS MAY ENHANCE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
THERE.
DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY
INCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG AN
OZONA TO ABILENE TO GAINESVILLE LINE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT
ALREADY KICKED OFF THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WITH MORE
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND WACO. MOST OF
THE MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITH POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINING. THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF BOTH SHOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
HEATING. DECENT RAIN CHANCES RUN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT AND BOUNDARIES PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES AND THE FRONT ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS CONTINUE A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. CAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES
DURING THE WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE. THE
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRIES TO CONNECT WITH THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
WOULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF GOES BACK
TO BEING SLOWER ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 89 72 90 72 / 60 30 10 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 89 71 90 71 / 50 30 10 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 89 72 / 60 40 20 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 89 70 / 40 10 10 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 91 73 93 74 / 40 30 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 90 72 / 60 30 20 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 89 72 / 60 40 20 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 89 73 89 73 / 60 50 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 73 90 73 / 60 50 20 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 90 73 / 60 40 20 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ACROSS THE REGION KFCX 88D RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE MOST PLENTIFUL. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOONE NC...BLACKSBURG VA...LEWISBURG
WV LINE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE REACHED CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE...THERE THE TREND WILL BE FOR
STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS REGION...AND ALSO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATIONS WAS OCCURRING. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE TREND...THERE ALSO WILL BE TREND FOR FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE THREE AREAS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...
OUR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING REFLECT AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS...OR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A GENEROUS AREA HAS JUST EXITED THE
NORTH...AND ANOTHER REGION IS ABOUT TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...UNTIL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MOIST AND PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS RANGE FROM HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR...AND THAT TREND ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MAY CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND START TO INCREASE. ANTICIPATE A WINTER-LIKE
UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING CIGS INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT REALIZE
THE SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND ANTICIPATE LESS
CLOUD COVER.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...JH
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
102 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ACROSS THE REGION KFCX 88D RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE MOST PLENTIFUL. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOONE NC...BLACKSBURG VA...LEWISBURG
WV LINE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE REACHED CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE...THERE THE TREND WILL BE FOR
STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER REGION OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE FORMING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS REGION...AND ALSO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATIONS WAS OCCURRING. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE TREND...THERE ALSO WILL BE TREND FOR FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE THREE AREAS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 955 AM EDT SATURDAY...
OUR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING REFLECT AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS...OR EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A GENEROUS AREA HAS JUST EXITED THE
NORTH...AND ANOTHER REGION IS ABOUT TO ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...UNTIL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 240 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SWATH OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WORK OFF TO
THE NE AND SHOULD EXIT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT THAT WONT MAKE IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY TRIM BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE TO
START THE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES
AND STARTS TO RECHARGE THINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ADDED
BANDS OF DEEPER CONVECTION INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THINGS LIKELY CONSOLIDATE HEADING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT INCLUDING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH OVERALL BEST SHEAR ENDING UP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN VA. ALSO SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...WILL INIT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PER HEAVY RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST NAM SHOWING ONLY 1K J/KG VALUES
WEST AND PERHAPS 2K OUT EAST PENDING THE DEGREE OF HEATING BEFORE
THINGS REDEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OUT EAST
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS PER HEAVY PRECIP LOADING AS SEEING
LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
OTRW SPEED OF BANDS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER GIVEN THE
30-40 KT SW JET ALOFT. HOWEVER SINCE ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE WILL CLIP OFF A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS AND ADD A COUPLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE UP
NORTH. ALSO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 6 PM TO COVER
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND MATCH UP WITH BORDERING OFFICES FOR
NOW. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY/CAT POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLOW EXODUS OF HEAVIER SHRA TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z WITH CHANCES
LINGERING WEST UNTIL FROPA THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER
GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND WITH MOSTLY 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST AND LOW/MID
80S EAST PROVIDED SOME SUN.
COLD FRONT PUNCHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A GOOD DRY SLOT
TO WORK EAST AIDED BY 40 KTS AT 85H AND STRONG COOL ADVECTION
UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS LOOK GUSTY GIVEN THE
ABRUPT 85H COOLING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS PER ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL CRASH BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEST WHERE
WILL GET SOME CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES...WHILE
EXPECT LOWS CLOSER TO 60-65 OUT EAST WHERE THE 85H FRONT WONT
CROSS UNTIL LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER A LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH MOUNTAINS MAINLY EARLY BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME IN
THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES IN ALL BUT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOW END POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NW INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW 40S DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD
LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5
TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST AROUND KBLF/KLWB THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD KBCB/KROA BEFORE
SEEING ADDED REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS...LOOKING AT LOW CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF KDAN TO INIT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT. THINK SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ADDED SHRA MIGHT HOLD
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE LONGER SO SLOWED DOWN
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTRW PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER BKN LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN ALL EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN
BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN OVERALL VICINITY MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA EXIT FOR NOW.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD EAST WHILE
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOW
LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT
TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE
EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED/EXPANDED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS
BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM