Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
616 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISBY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP AROUND THE STATE TODAY
WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.
HAVE ALREADY BEGAN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED POPS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH HRRR AND WRF AGREE POP UP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ARKNASAS...HOWEVER DO
BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
RIVER AND THUS JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT AND HUMID ON THURSDAY...SO A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES
TO THE WEST AND NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING
IN CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DO BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID DAY ON
SATURDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS A
RESULT...DID BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AND REMOVE
THEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR COOLER AND DRY AIR
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER AIR PATTERNS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE WELL AMPLIFIED AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A 2 SIGMA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A 2 SIGMA TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED A THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER...AS
THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ON
THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO DISTANT STORMS. MORE HUMID AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING TO MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... THINGS ARE QUIETING DOWN THIS HOUR...AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER GILA COUNTY HAVE
PRETTY MUCH ALL DISSIPATED. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WERE
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND A BIT OF BLOWING DUST...MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY AS OUTFLOWS FROM THEM WORKED THEIR WAY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER PHX AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE A LESS ACTIVE DAY THEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AS THE
INVERTED TROF THAT HELPED TO TRIGGER TODAY/S ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY... CONVECTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PANNED OUT QUITE NICELY COMPARED TO HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS WITH MAIN EMPHASIS AREA...AS OF THIS WRITING...OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EXPANDING WESTWARD. A SMALLER AREA DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PINAL AND FAR NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES. LOWER LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE EAST STALLED OUT OVER GILA/EASTERN
PINAL/NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES...BARELY MAKING IT INTO FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO. THE LACK OF MOIST ADVECTION FURTHER
WEST ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOIST
ADVECTION...THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STILL VERY LARGE. THIS
BODES WELL FOR STORMS THAT WILL BE POTENT WIND PRODUCERS BUT WITH
MEAGER RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. STORMS NOT
LIKELY TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SUCH MEAGER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...JUST WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF DUST...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTH AND EASTERN FRINGES OF
PHOENIX METRO. NOT LOOKING FOR THE GIANT WALL OF DUST TODAY BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY FOR PINAL COUNTY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LEADING TO EVER SO SLIGHT LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL WITH STORMS NOT VERY LIKELY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY BEGINS SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RICH MOISTURE SURFACE WORKS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST. SFC DEWPOINTS PUSHING SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S AND PWATS
START TO HEAD TOWARDS THE 1.25 INCH MARK...WHICH PUSH INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE SEASONAL MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE PHX AREA. POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FORECAST AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED DEWPOINT SFCS AND
NIGHTLY DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL WORK TO NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WARM MORNING STARTS BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS
INTO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST REGIME BY THE WEEKEND...WHERE
BROADBRUSH POPS REIGN AND ONE DAY`S FORECAST MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT`S ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES...
CONVECTION EXPECTED HAS INITIATED TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. NOT GOING TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA OR SHRA IN
THE TAFS. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE ABRUPT EASTERLY WIND SHIFT SOME
TIME IN THE 00Z- 02Z RANGE DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS. BLDU POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT KIWA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO NEARBY OPEN
DESERT. EAST WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT IPL.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
COULD SURVIVE AND MAKE IT TO BLH BUT THEY WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER BY THAT POINT AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE STRONG EAST
WINDS IN BLH`S TAF.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK BEFORE STORM CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WETTING RAINS TENDING
TO BE LOCALIZED. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
206 PM MST TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK AS MONSOON
2015 CONTINUES. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS THIS HAPPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS BEGINNING TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLD/SCT TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINE WITH HRRR AS
WELL AS NAM AND VARIOUS WRF RUNS. TSTORMS OVER THE RIM WILL SHIFT
SW INTO THIS EVENING WHILE TSTORMS OVER COCHISE COUNTY SHIFT
WESTWARD. SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 100 AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S. THIS POINTS
TO A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS THAT MAKE IT
INTO THE HOT VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF TUCSON BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER FROM TUCSON WEST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. NO MATTER HOW FAR WEST STORMS PROGRESS TONIGHT...EASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER INCREASED MOISTURE INTO SE AZ...SETTING UP A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS MENTIONED...EXPECT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
WITH DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE A LIKELY RESULT OF SOME OF TSTORMS AND
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN THE I-10 CORRIDOR NW
OF TUCSON.
THURSDAY TSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD...INCREASED MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW THE LEVELS OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 25/00Z. ISOLD-SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AND MOVE GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SW OR
WSW THROUGH 24/06Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFTERWARDS. THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE EAST OF ROUGHLY A
KSOW-KALK-KOLS LINE...ALTHOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOWS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR
NW AS KTUS. TOMORROW...GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE GILA
VALLEY INCLUDING KSAD WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AS EASTERLY WINDS
AT 10-14KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP NEAR KDUG. EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAMPING
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...ZONES 152...153 AND SOUTHERN 151.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD WESTWARD EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
REST OF THE WEEK. INITIAL THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STARTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL BE THE RULE. BREEZY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS
WILL BE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PUBLIC/DROZD
AVIATION/CARLAW
FIRE WEATHER/FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1034 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030AM UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA...#342...IN AFFECT 700PM. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
900AM UPDATE...THE WEAKENING MCS IS ENTERING THE POCONOS AT THIS
TIME. LIGHTNING IS ON THE DECREASE AS IS THE SEVER THREAT.
COVERING WITH AN SPS FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER, MID-MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALSO
TWEAKED THE SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS UP NORTH.
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVEN`T CHANGED....HEAT AND
THREAT OF SEVERE. THE COASTAL PLAIN, SOUTH OF THE MCS-INDUCED
CLOUDS, IS ALREADY RIPE WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG AND SB
LI IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE.
A QUESTION WE HAVE IS, WILL THESE INCOMING CLOUDS (OVERCAST) HAVE
AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION? CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE MAJORITY MOVES THROUGH. SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
WITH GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH,
MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTH, WE LEFT TEMPS AS IS. HEAT INDICES LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 105
ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
630AM UPDATE...AN MCS ACROSS WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO MAKE FAST
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING THIS ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA AS EARLY AS 15Z (BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER, BUT EXPECT FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW AS DIURNAL MIXING AND
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOP). THIS MCS
IS NOT ON THE FRONT, RATHER CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT, BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS AND ARRIVES IN OUR CWA BY MID DAY, THIS
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS BROAD ENOUGH TO COVER EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS) TODAY. IN FACT THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS ALMOST 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AT CLEARING THE FRONT OFF
THE SHORE BY 00Z. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
HAS BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE
00Z RAOBS INDICATE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE FIRST THREAT OF THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT, PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO TRENTON. FOR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA,
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AS IT APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL
SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30
KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT BELOW THE MOS POP VALUES OVER NIGHT AS I THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDD FCST STARTS OFF DRY AND PLEASANT AND THEN HAS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN IT AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WED AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND NWLY FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WED NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT DRY
WX, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ON THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EWD AND BY
LATER THU WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS EVEN A
BIT SLOWER, WITH NOTHING BEFORE 26/00Z. THE GUID IS SUGGESTING
ATTM THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WOULD BE S.
THEN, AFTER THIS LOW MOVES BY, WE SHUD GET AT LEAST A PARTIAL
BREAK ON FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS.
AFTER FRI, CONFIDENCE DROPS TREMENDOUSLY.
A MAJOR PATN SHIFT IS ALSO IN THE WORKS WHICH ALSO HELPS EXPLAIN
THE DROP IN FCST CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO FROM ZONAL FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN IN FOR WEEKS TO A MAJOR RIDGE IN THE W AND ALMOST
UNSEASONABLE TROF IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GUID AGREES THAT LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VLY EWD.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND MOST OF THE MDLS ARE FURTHER N WITH THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND KEEP FRI NIGHT THRU ERLY SUN IN DECENT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN AREAS, MUCH OF THIS PD WOULD BE DRY.
THE CMC HAS DIFFERENT TIMING. SLOWER TO MOVE THE PRECIP IN ON SAT.
LINGERS IT LONGER ON SUN.... SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS.
IT STILL SEEMS THAT PRECIP CHCS ARE BETTER SAT THAN SUN AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW PRES DEPARTING THE AREA ON SUN.
SMALL PRECIP CHCS REMAIN ON MON, BUT IT CUD END UP BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END UP MUCH BELOW NRML OVER THE
WEEKEND AS E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL TSRA. FIRST, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN PA, COULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY MID DAY.
SECOND, STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN (ONE MODEL, THE NAM, IS AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS). HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH TIMING
SHOWN FOR THE GFS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, COULD SEE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WIND GUSTS TO
35KT WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR,
AND WILL ALSO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WED ...VFR. HIGH PRES. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THU AND FRI...VFR CONDS ERLY THU THEN LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MVFR AND IFR PSBL IF NOT LIKELY IN
SHRA AND FG. GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG. SLY WIND SHIFT TO NE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SAT...E-NE GUSTS 20 KT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYS CUD IMPACT THE
REGION OR REMAIN S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SHRA/FG FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25KT WILL BUILD BY MID DAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FT IN RESPONSE. THUS SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
MID DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BAY, AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS (WHERE SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THRU FRI...LTST FCST HAS WIND AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SCA LIKELY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
ON E TO NE FETCH. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE. IN HOUSE PROCEDURE WAS A MODERATE,
WHILE GRIDDED CALCULATION WAS LOW. GIVEN THE WIND SCENARIO, THE
MORNING MAY START WITH LOW RISKS EVERYWHERE AND THEN INCREASE TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA HEAT WAVE CULMINATES WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY JUNE 23 RECORDS: IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL
VALUES LISTED BELOW, BUT COULD BE ESPECIALLY CLOSE AT KGED AND
POSSIBLY OTHERS.
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-
104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900AM UPDATE...THE WEAKENING MCS IS ENTERING THE POCONOS AT THIS
TIME. LIGHTNING IS ON THE DECREASE AS IS THE SEVER THREAT.
COVERING WITH AN SPS FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER, MID-MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALSO
TWEAKED THE SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS UP NORTH.
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVEN`T CHANGED....HEAT AND
THREAT OF SEVERE. THE COASTAL PLAIN, SOUTH OF THE MCS-INDUCED
CLOUDS, IS ALREADY RIPE WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG AND SB
LI IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE.
A QUESTION WE HAVE IS, WILL THESE INCOMING CLOUDS (OVERCAST) HAVE
AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION? CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE MAJORITY MOVES THROUGH. SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
WITH GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH,
MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTH, WE LEFT TEMPS AS IS. HEAT INDICIES LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 105
ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
630AM UPDATE...AN MCS ACROSS WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO MAKE FAST
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING THIS ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA AS EARLY AS 15Z (BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER, BUT EXPECT FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW AS DIURNAL MIXING AND
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOP). THIS MCS
IS NOT ON THE FRONT, RATHER CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT, BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS AND ARRIVES IN OUR CWA BY MID DAY, THIS
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS BROAD ENOUGH TO COVER EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS) TODAY. IN FACT THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS ALMOST 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AT CLEARING THE FRONT OFF
THE SHORE BY 00Z. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
HAS BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE
00Z RAOBS INDICATE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE FIRST THREAT OF THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT, PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO TRENTON. FOR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA,
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AS IT APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL
SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30
KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT BELOW THE MOS POP VALUES OVER NIGHT AS I THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDD FCST STARTS OFF DRY AND PLEASANT AND THEN HAS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN IT AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WED AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND NWLY FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WED NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT DRY
WX, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ON THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EWD AND BY
LATER THU WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS EVEN A
BIT SLOWER, WITH NOTHING BEFORE 26/00Z. THE GUID IS SUGGESTING
ATTM THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WOULD BE S.
THEN, AFTER THIS LOW MOVES BY, WE SHUD GET AT LEAST A PARTIAL
BREAK ON FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS.
AFTER FRI, CONFIDENCE DROPS TREMENDOUSLY.
A MAJOR PATN SHIFT IS ALSO IN THE WORKS WHICH ALSO HELPS EXPLAIN
THE DROP IN FCST CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO FROM ZONAL FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN IN FOR WEEKS TO A MAJOR RIDGE IN THE W AND ALMOST
UNSEASONABLE TROF IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GUID AGREES THAT LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VLY EWD.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND MOST OF THE MDLS ARE FURTHER N WITH THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND KEEP FRI NIGHT THRU ERLY SUN IN DECENT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN AREAS, MUCH OF THIS PD WOULD BE DRY.
THE CMC HAS DIFFERENT TIMING. SLOWER TO MOVE THE PRECIP IN ON SAT.
LINGERS IT LONGER ON SUN.... SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS.
IT STILL SEEMS THAT PRECIP CHCS ARE BETTER SAT THAN SUN AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW PRES DEPARTING THE AREA ON SUN.
SMALL PRECIP CHCS REMAIN ON MON, BUT IT CUD END UP BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END UP MUCH BELOW NRML OVER THE
WEEKEND AS E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL TSRA. FIRST, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN PA, COULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY MID DAY.
SECOND, STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN (ONE MODEL, THE NAM, IS AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS). HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH TIMING
SHOWN FOR THE GFS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, COULD SEE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WIND GUSTS TO
35KT WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR,
AND WILL ALSO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WED ...VFR. HIGH PRES. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THU AND FRI...VFR CONDS ERLY THU THEN LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MVFR AND IFR PSBL IF NOT LIKELY IN
SHRA AND FG. GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG. SLY WIND SHIFT TO NE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SAT...E-NE GUSTS 20 KT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYS CUD IMPACT THE
REGION OR REMAIN S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SHRA/FG FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25KT WILL BUILD BY MID DAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FT IN RESPONSE. THUS SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
MID DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BAY, AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS (WHERE SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THRU FRI...LTST FCST HAS WIND AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SCA LIKELY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
ON E TO NE FETCH. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE. IN HOUSE PROCEDURE WAS A MODERATE,
WHILE GRIDDED CALCULATION WAS LOW. GIVEN THE WIND SCENARIO, THE
MORNING MAY START WITH LOW RISKS EVERYWHERE AND THEN INCREASE TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA HEAT WAVE CULMINATES WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY JUNE 23 RECORDS: IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL
VALUES LISTED BELOW, BUT COULD BE ESPECIALLY CLOSE AT KGED AND
POSSIBLY OTHERS.
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-
104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
635 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630AM UPDATE...AN MCS ACROSS WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO MAKE FAST
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING THIS ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA AS EARLY AS 15Z (BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER, BUT EXPECT FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW AS DIURNAL MIXING AND
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOP). THIS MCS
IS NOT ON THE FRONT, RATHER CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT, BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS AND ARRIVES IN OUR CWA BY MID DAY, THIS
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS BROAD ENOUGH TO COVER EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS) TODAY. IN FACT THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS ALMOST 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AT CLEARING THE FRONT OFF
THE SHORE BY 00Z. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
HAS BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE
00Z RAOBS INDICATE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE FIRST THREAT OF THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT, PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO TRENTON. FOR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA,
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AS IT APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL
SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30
KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT BELOW THE MOS POP VALUES OVER NIGHT AS I THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDD FCST STARTS OFF DRY AND PLEASANT AND THEN HAS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN IT AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WED AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND NWLY FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WED NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT DRY
WX, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ON THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EWD AND BY
LATER THU WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS EVEN A
BIT SLOWER, WITH NOTHING BEFORE 26/00Z. THE GUID IS SUGGESTING
ATTM THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WOULD BE S.
THEN, AFTER THIS LOW MOVES BY, WE SHUD GET AT LEAST A PARTIAL
BREAK ON FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS.
AFTER FRI, CONFIDENCE DROPS TREMENDOUSLY.
A MAJOR PATN SHIFT IS ALSO IN THE WORKS WHICH ALSO HELPS EXPLAIN
THE DROP IN FCST CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO FROM ZONAL FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN IN FOR WEEKS TO A MAJOR RIDGE IN THE W AND ALMOST
UNSEASONABLE TROF IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GUID AGREES THAT LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VLY EWD.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND MOST OF THE MDLS ARE FURTHER N WITH THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND KEEP FRI NIGHT THRU ERLY SUN IN DECENT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN AREAS, MUCH OF THIS PD WOULD BE DRY.
THE CMC HAS DIFFERENT TIMING. SLOWER TO MOVE THE PRECIP IN ON SAT.
LINGERS IT LONGER ON SUN.... SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS.
IT STILL SEEMS THAT PRECIP CHCS ARE BETTER SAT THAN SUN AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW PRES DEPARTING THE AREA ON SUN.
SMALL PRECIP CHCS REMAIN ON MON, BUT IT CUD END UP BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END UP MUCH BELOW NRML OVER THE
WEEKEND AS E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL TSRA. FIRST, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN PA, COULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY MID DAY.
SECOND, STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN (ONE MODEL, THE NAM, IS AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS). HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH TIMING
SHOWN FOR THE GFS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, COULD SEE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WIND GUSTS TO
35KT WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR,
AND WILL ALSO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WED ...VFR. HIGH PRES. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THU AND FRI...VFR CONDS ERLY THU THEN LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MVFR AND IFR PSBL IF NOT LIKELY IN
SHRA AND FG. GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG. SLY WIND SHIFT TO NE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SAT...E-NE GUSTS 20 KT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYS CUD IMPACT THE
REGION OR REMAIN S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SHRA/FG FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25KT WILL BUILD BY MID DAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FT IN RESPONSE. THUS SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
MID DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BAY, AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS (WHERE SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THRU FRI...LTST FCST HAS WIND AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SCA LIKELY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
ON E TO NE FETCH. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE. IN HOUSE PROCEDURE WAS A MODERATE,
WHILE GRIDDED CALCULATION WAS LOW. GIVEN THE WIND SCENARIO, THE
MORNING MAY START WITH LOW RISKS EVERYWHERE AND THEN INCREASE TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA HEAT WAVE CULMINATES WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY JUNE 23 RECORDS: IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL
VALUES LISTED BELOW, BUT COULD BE ESPECIALLY CLOSE AT KGED AND
POSSIBLY OTHERS.
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1116 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...MAKING A SUBSTANTIAL UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SE GA. FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR TREND WITH
DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA...
AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS NE FL WHERE FULL HEATING OCCURRING.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE FROM COASTAL SE GA
TO SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL FORECAST TO DRIFT SE. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SEA BREEZES SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH BETTER LATE AFTERNOON COVERAGE
I-10 SOUTHWARD. KJAX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING DECENT SW
FLOW IN LOWEST GATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVEMENT TO JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR IN SE
GA...WHEN IT COMES TO HIGH TEMP FORECAST. LOWERED HIGH TEMP
FORECAST TO LOW 90S FOR NOW...WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF HEATING TO REACH THAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 75 97 75 / 70 40 40 30
SSI 92 79 91 78 / 30 30 30 20
JAX 96 75 95 76 / 50 50 40 20
SGJ 92 76 90 76 / 40 40 30 20
GNV 96 74 94 74 / 60 60 50 20
OCF 95 74 94 75 / 60 60 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF//
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS EXPANDED/LIFTED NWD SOME COMPARED
TO YDAY`S POSN NEAR VRB-ZPH...AND NOW LIES NEAR MLB-BKV...WITH A BIT
LESS CURVATURE ABOUT ITS AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVHD WITH A NARROW COL STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR A TPA-SAV-CHS
LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING
UPPER DEBRIS CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NNE-NE STARTING TO THIN
ATTM. CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SHOWS UP IN THE 12Z XMR RAOB...NEARLY
2.0" MEAN PWAT COMPARED TO THE PRONOUNCED DRYING WHICH OCCURRED BTWN
12Z MON AND 00Z TUE (1.8" --> 1.4").
WITH THE LCL AIR MASS MUCH MORE MOIST THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...IT
FOLLOWS THAT LCL SEA BREEZE BDRYS SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
IN AND OF THEMSELVES...RATHER THAN NEEDING A COLLISION TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH. INDEED THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOW THIS TAKING PLACE...CONSEQUENTLY POPS ALONG THE COAST
ARE 30-40 RATHER THAN 20...WITH 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
INTERIOR. THERE WAS SOME EARLIER CONCERN THAT DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD
INHIBIT SFC HEATING BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO
A SMALL DEGREE EARLY ON BUT WITH CLOUDS THINNING...DON`T THINK THIS
WILL WIND UP BEING THAT MUCH OF A FACTOR.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER...FCST WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION...BEST CHC FOR TS AT COASTAL AERODROMES WILL BE 16Z-20Z
WITH ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE INLAND SITES MAINLY FROM 21Z-02Z OR SO.
A LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR IMC/WIND GUSTS 30KT+ ESPECIALLY INLAND...GIVEN
EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...ANOTHER DAY HAS DAWNED AND 3FT SEAS HAVE YET TO SHOW UP...
YET AGAIN. THIS REMAINS A BIT OF A QUIBBLE SINCE BOATING CONDS ARE
QUITE BENIGN...BUT I CAN`T REMEMBER BOTH THE WNAWAVE/NWPS HAVING A
1-2FT HIGH BIAS FOR SO MANY CYCLES IN A ROW IN SOME TIME. WHILE WE
MAY SEE 3FT SEAS LEAK INTO THE OUTER WATERS PLAN TO ONCE AGAIN PARE
BACK SEAS TO 1-2FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 2FT OFFSHORE...UNTIL SEAS
SHOW A SIGN OF NUDGING AT LEAST 2.5FT AT 41009/41010.
&&
FORECAST/UPDATE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015/
...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.
THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.
STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.
THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
FRI-MON...
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE NRN JET AS IT SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE ERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A HI AMP
MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE IN THE PROCESS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS RESPOND
BY DVLPG A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THAT
WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S ON FRI...THEN TO THE
SW ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHER DIURNAL POPS OVER THE E FL COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY AOB
50PCT WITH TEMPS RETURNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...MAXES U80SL90S
AND MINS L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM KSUA-KMLB...AND THEN SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING PAST
01Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS REMAIN RATHER FLAT AT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT AT
BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. S/SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE SE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...THEN WINDS FROM THE SE/S
WILL BECOME SSW/SW TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND PERHAPS UP TO 2-3 FT FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHILE A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...SEAS 2-3FT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS IN THE AFTN/EVNG AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.CLIMATE... DAYTONA BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
YESTERDAY SET BACK IN 2009. RECORD HIGHS TODAY LOOK OUT OF REACH:
RECORDS HIGHS FOR TODAY/JUNE 23RD...
DAYTONA BEACH 100 IN 1944
ORLANDO 99 IN 1939
MELBOURNE 96 IN 1998
VERO BEACH 94 IN 2009
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
DAYTONA BEACH 77 IN 1972
VERO BEACH 79 IN 2010
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NRN LAKE AND INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEESBURG AIRPORT RECEIVED .46 INCHES OF RAIN.
FAVORABLE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LVL
VORTICITY ANALYZED IN THE 00Z NAM/GFS MODELS AIDED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
TODAY...00Z NAM/GFS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN LIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PWATS FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SRN LATE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF DRIER AIR WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.43 INCHES AT THE
CAPE AT 00Z LAST EVENING SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD OFFSHORE FROM THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE. WILL FCST 40-50 POPS FOR
THE INTERIOR...30-40 PCT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY FROM
BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. SPC
HAS ALSO OUTLOOKED THE INTERIOR WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF A WET MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S S CSTL TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS FOR NRN INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST IN
THE EVENING WITH GFS INDICATING VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON AREAS WHERE LINGERING STABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.
THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.
STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.
THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
FRI-MON...
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE NRN JET AS IT SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE ERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A HI AMP
MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE IN THE PROCESS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS RESPOND
BY DVLPG A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THAT
WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S ON FRI...THEN TO THE
SW ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHER DIURNAL POPS OVER THE E FL COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY AOB
50PCT WITH TEMPS RETURNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...MAXES U80SL90S
AND MINS L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM KSUA-KMLB...AND THEN SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING PAST
01Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS REMAIN RATHER FLAT AT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT AT
BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. S/SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE SE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...THEN WINDS FROM THE SE/S
WILL BECOME SSW/SW TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND PERHAPS UP TO 2-3 FT FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHILE A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...SEAS 2-3FT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS IN THE AFTN/EVNG AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.CLIMATE... DAYTONA BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
YESTERDAY SET BACK IN 2009. RECORD HIGHS TODAY LOOK OUT OF REACH:
RECORDS HIGHS FOR TODAY/JUNE 23RD...
DAYTONA BEACH 100 IN 1944
ORLANDO 99 IN 1939
MELBOURNE 96 IN 1998
VERO BEACH 94 IN 2009
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
DAYTONA BEACH 77 IN 1972
VERO BEACH 79 IN 2010
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 76 92 75 / 30 20 40 10
MCO 94 76 95 75 / 50 30 50 20
MLB 91 75 89 74 / 30 10 40 10
VRB 91 75 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 40 40 50 20
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 40 20 50 20
ORL 95 77 94 76 / 40 30 50 20
FPR 91 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
408 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NRN LAKE AND INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEESBURG AIRPORT RECEIVED .46 INCHES OF RAIN.
FAVORABLE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LVL
VORTICITY ANALYZED IN THE 00Z NAM/GFS MODELS AIDED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
TODAY...00Z NAM/GFS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN LIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PWATS FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SRN LATE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF DRIER AIR WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.43 INCHES AT THE
CAPE AT 00Z LAST EVENING SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD OFFSHORE FROM THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE. WILL FCST 40-50 POPS FOR
THE INTERIOR...30-40 PCT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY FROM
BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. SPC
HAS ALSO OUTLOOKED THE INTERIOR WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF A WET MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S S CSTL TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS FOR NRN INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST IN
THE EVENING WITH GFS INDICATING VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON AREAS WHERE LINGERING STABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.
THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.
STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.
THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
FRI-MON...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM KSUA-KMLB...AND THEN SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING PAST
01Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS REMAIN RATHER FLAT AT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT AT
BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. S/SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE SE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...THEN WINDS FROM THE SE/S
WILL BECOME SSW/SW TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND PERHAPS UP TO 2-3 FT FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHILE A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...SEAS 2-3FT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS IN THE AFTN/EVNG AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.CLIMATE... DAYTONA BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
YESTERDAY SET BACK IN 2009. RECORD HIGHS TODAY LOOK OUT OF REACH:
RECORDS HIGHS FOR TODAY/JUNE 23RD...
DAYTONA BEACH 100 IN 1944
ORLANDO 99 IN 1939
MELBOURNE 96 IN 1998
VERO BEACH 94 IN 2009
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
DAYTONA BEACH 77 IN 1972
VERO BEACH 79 IN 2010
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 76 92 75 / 30 20 40 10
MCO 94 76 95 75 / 50 30 50 20
MLB 91 75 89 74 / 30 10 40 10
VRB 91 75 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 40 40 50 20
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 40 20 50 20
ORL 95 77 94 76 / 40 30 50 20
FPR 91 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1013 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
NORTH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE FRONT COULD STALL JUST OFFSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF LATE
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS. THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDLANDS INITIALLY...THEN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A MORE
ORGANIZED QLCS POTENTIALLY DROPS IN DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTION GENERALLY DISSIPATING
AS IT NEARS...NOT SO SURE IT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AS SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS UPWARDS OF 3500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL IS
CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY UNTAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1400 J/KG. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IF THE QLCS HOLDS TOGETHER.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND MORE IS ON THE WAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE FORECAST
THEREFORE INDICATES CLOUD SKIES INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE AS THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
BEGINS TO THIN/DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND A COUPLED
SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY A DEGREE OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S INLAND FROM THE WARMER BEACHES/BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DESPITE LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND AND A STALLING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DCAPES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE MAIN CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE HEAT/HUMIDITY LEVELS...WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURS BEFORE
TYPICAL PEAK HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING SHOULD MIX OUT SFC DEWPTS TO AROUND 70 INLAND...WHILE DEWPTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S NEAR/BEHIND AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. THESE
TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A HEAT ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP SHIFT
OVER THE AREA EARLY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH PWATS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
2.0 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE MOISTURE
LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...GREATER
FORCING AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AS STRONGER WIND FIELDS ROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A SFC
COLD FRONT MAKING WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON FRIDAY...THEN LOW 90S ON SATURDAY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. GIVEN THE COOLING TREND...HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NO LONGER BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.&&
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN
FORCING FROM UPPER JET...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD FRONT...IT SHOULD
BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ESPECIALLY GIVEN DECENT SHEAR AND DEEP
MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY...AND REMAIN STATIONARY OFFSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
CONVECTION COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SOME MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE KCHS TAF AS RADAR TRENDS
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAF/S AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...IT/S STATUS QUO IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
RESULTING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH/SE...MESO-HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH INLAND. ADEQUATE MIXING OF 20-25
KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AND A MODEST GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WAVES OF 1-2
FT WILL BE COMMON IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...WITH 2-4 FT IN THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...HIGHEST ON AMZ350-374.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE WATERS
LATE WEEKEND...BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING/DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOCTURNAL JETTING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PEAKING AROUND 15-
20 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEE,
SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-4 FEET...BUT COULD REACH 6 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JUNE 24TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1998.
KCXM...85 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1914.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JUNE 25TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2010.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1914.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...JAQ/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
755 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE
SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID AFTERNOON WHILE
THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE SLOWER.
A LEE TROUGH WILL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PIEDMONT.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50
TO 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST INCREASING TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT EAST.
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
OF 45-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC
BORDER WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 40 PERCENT THURSDAY. .
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DAILY TREK TOWARDS THE CENTURY
MARK EACH AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE GENERALLY
FROM 104 TO 108 EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL THEN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS SHOULD BE A
WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE JUST AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BETTER SOUTHWARD
PUSH TO ANY COLD FRONTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BE DIURNALLY INDUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
AREA REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT OGB AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS BETWEEN 20Z AND 24/01Z. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTED VFR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FROM TUE JUNE 23RD THROUGH THU JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 23...104 IN 1944
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 23...102 SET IN 1914 AND TIED IN 1956 AND 1988
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE
SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID AFTERNOON WHILE
THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE SLOWER.
A LEE TROUGH WILL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PIEDMONT.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50
TO 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST INCREASING TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT EAST.
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
OF 45-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC
BORDER WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 40 PERCENT THURSDAY. .
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DAILY TREK TOWARDS THE CENTURY
MARK EACH AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE GENERALLY
FROM 104 TO 108 EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL THEN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS SHOULD BE A
WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE JUST AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BETTER SOUTHWARD
PUSH TO ANY COLD FRONTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BE DIURNALLY INDUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BRIEF MVFR
FORECAST IN FOG AT AGS/OGB.
SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT FOG PRONE SITES
SUCH AS AGS/OGB. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES BY 13Z. SCATTERED
CUMULUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS
LOWER BUT STILL COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY OGB WHERE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BY TONIGHT...SKIES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FROM TUE JUNE 23RD THROUGH THU JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 23...104 IN 1944
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 23...102 SET IN 1914 AND TIED IN 1956 AND 1988
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1006 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
924 PM CDT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACKBUILDING
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACKBULDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CSHRA/POTENTIAL TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NORTHEAST
NEAR 10 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
* MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV FROM MUCH EARLIER
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
EROSION OF RETURNS WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WAS CENTERED NEAR
DIXON IL...WITH ONLY 1-2 HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING AND NO THUNDER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
EASTERN IOWA...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL MID-LATE EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WEST OF KDSM
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL LATER
TONIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...A
MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTH AS RFD-ORD. THE BEST ASSESSMENT OF TIMING
THIS THREAT OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THEN LOOKS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY...WITH LINGERING RA/SHRA ENDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOK
REASONABLE PROVIDED RAIN DOES HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE COLUMN.
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MESSY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SMALL
HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST/CENTRAL IL. WINDS
HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THIS HIGH PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MODELS THEN BRING WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE NEAR THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK OF LOW AND WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTING A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
EARLY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SAGS TO THE SOUTH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST BY MID-
LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA EXTENT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND
WASH OUT AS THE AFFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
ILLINOIS. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST TO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ021-
ILZ032-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
945 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL HEAD
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ARRIVE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING SCHUYLER...FULTON...KNOX COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL IL UNTIL 5 A.M. WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER UNTIL THEN AS THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND TAKING AIM AT
CENTRAL IL. UPDATING FORECAST FOR TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUBBLE HIGH FROM
THE PERSISTENT MCS IN EAST CENTRAL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NW
MISSOURI TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE INFLUENCE THAT RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASING AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME WILL GIVE THE WARM FRONT A PUSH INTO
CENTRAL IL VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS NEAR THE
I-74 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE HIGHEST AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH (JUST NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR)...BUT THE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAVANA
TO LINCOLN TO CLINTON.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AFTER 05Z (MIDNIGHT CDT) AND CONTINUING UNTIL
DAYBREAK. AM EXPECTING A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN NW IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKE A SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD. CORFIDI
VECTORS ON THE LATEST RAP INDICATE A RATHER DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS TO TRACK TOWARD THE I-74 CORRIDOR AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL IL BY DAYBREAK. THIS TYPE OF SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ONCE THE EXPECTED MCS TRACKS INTO INDIANA THURSDAY MORNING...THE
TRAILING OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SETTING
UP THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE COOL FRONT WILL EDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THRU FRIDAY EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN OF THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VERSUS THE QUICKER
ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE POPS OUT...OR AT LEAST SLIGHTS...FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FORECAST BY MEDIMUM RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP A RATHER DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRL IL OVERNIGHT AS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING IFR-MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT TIMING/LOCATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN
OUTSIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS...CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CATEGORY BY 12-16Z.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT SETLLING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BEGIN BRING DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CLOUD
COVER FOR KPIA-KBMI NORTHWARD. WINDS E-SE 5-10 KTS VEERING TO SW
OVERNIGHT...THEN NNW AFTER COLD FRONT FOR KPIA-KBMI NORTHWARD
AFTER 22Z. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
924 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
924 PM CDT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACKBUILDING
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACKBULDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHRA/POTENTIAL TSRA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
* MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
EVENING. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NORTHEAST
NEAR 10 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
* MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV FROM MUCH EARLIER
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
EROSION OF RETURNS WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WAS CENTERED NEAR
DIXON IL...WITH ONLY 1-2 HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING AND NO THUNDER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
EASTERN IOWA...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL MID-LATE EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WEST OF KDSM
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL LATER
TONIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...A
MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTH AS RFD-ORD. THE BEST ASSESSMENT OF TIMING
THIS THREAT OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THEN LOOKS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY...WITH LINGERING RA/SHRA ENDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOK
REASONABLE PROVIDED RAIN DOES HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE COLUMN.
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MESSY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SMALL
HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST/CENTRAL IL. WINDS
HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THIS HIGH PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MODELS THEN BRING WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE NEAR THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK OF LOW AND WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTING A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
EARLY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SAGS TO THE SOUTH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST BY MID-
LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA EXTENT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND
WASH OUT AS THE AFFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
ILLINOIS. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST TO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-ILZ021-
ILZ032-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ033 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
705 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACKBULDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHRA/POTENTIAL TSRA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
* MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
EVENING. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NORTHEAST
NEAR 10 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
* MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV FROM MUCH EARLIER
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
EROSION OF RETURNS WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WAS CENTERED NEAR
DIXON IL...WITH ONLY 1-2 HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING AND NO THUNDER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
EASTERN IOWA...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL MID-LATE EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WEST OF KDSM
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL LATER
TONIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...A
MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTH AS RFD-ORD. THE BEST ASSESSMENT OF TIMING
THIS THREAT OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THEN LOOKS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY...WITH LINGERING RA/SHRA ENDING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOK
REASONABLE PROVIDED RAIN DOES HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE COLUMN.
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MESSY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SMALL
HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST/CENTRAL IL. WINDS
HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THIS HIGH PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MODELS THEN BRING WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE NEAR THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK OF LOW AND WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTING A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
EARLY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SAGS TO THE SOUTH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST BY MID-
LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA EXTENT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND
WASH OUT AS THE AFFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
ILLINOIS. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST TO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-
ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033...MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-
INZ019...MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
704 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUBBLE HIGH FROM
THE PERSISTENT MCS IN EAST CENTRAL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NW
MISSOURI TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE INFLUENCE THAT RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASING AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME WILL GIVE THE WARM FRONT A PUSH INTO
CENTRAL IL VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS NEAR THE
I-74 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE HIGHEST AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH (JUST NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR)...BUT THE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAVANA
TO LINCOLN TO CLINTON.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AFTER 05Z (MIDNIGHT CDT) AND CONTINUING UNTIL
DAYBREAK. AM EXPECTING A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN NW IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKE A SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD. CORFIDI
VECTORS ON THE LATEST RAP INDICATE A RATHER DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS TO TRACK TOWARD THE I-74 CORRIDOR AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL IL BY DAYBREAK. THIS TYPE OF SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ONCE THE EXPECTED MCS TRACKS INTO INDIANA THURSDAY MORNING...THE
TRAILING OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SETTING
UP THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE COOL FRONT WILL EDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THRU FRIDAY EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN OF THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VERSUS THE QUICKER
ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE POPS OUT...OR AT LEAST SLIGHTS...FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FORECAST BY MEDIMUM RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP A RATHER DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRL IL OVERNIGHT AS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING IFR-MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT TIMING/LOCATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN
OUTSIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS...CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CATEGORY BY 12-16Z.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT SETLLING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BEGIN BRING DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CLOUD
COVER FOR KPIA-KBMI NORTHWARD. WINDS E-SE 5-10 KTS VEERING TO SW
OVERNIGHT...THEN NNW AFTER COLD FRONT FOR KPIA-KBMI NORTHWARD
AFTER 22Z. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
919 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS DOES EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST UPDATE SENT A BIT AGO TO TRIM POPS PRIOR TO 8Z (MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH) BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MCV. MAIN SHOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS IOWA WITH SEVERAL LARGE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL OF THE HI
RES MODELS THEY ARE TRENDING MORE SE THAN EAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY/THETA E GRADIENT. WHILE THIS WILL TRY TO SURGE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...CONCERNS INCREASING THAT LITTLE RAIN MAY OCCUR
PRIOR TO 12Z (AND MAYBE LATER). HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED TIMING
OVERNIGHT TO BRING IN INCREASING CHANCES AFTER 12Z BUT BACKED OFF
ANY CAT POPS WILL 12Z OR AFTER. WILL DEFER ANY FURTHER BACKING OFF
OF POPS TO ARRIVING MIDNIGHT CREW AND MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
AS USUAL WITH SUMMER CONVECTION...A VERY COMPLICATED SETUP WITH
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY CONVECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
UPSTREAM TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
CONVECTION IN IL HAS STALLED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION OVER IA BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURGING BOUNDARY. EXPECT EARLY
EVENING TO BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT FIRST FOCUS WILL BE ON DECAYING
COMPLEX FROM IA MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR
AND RAP NOW PICKING UP ON THIS WHILE LOWER RES SPECTRAL MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH. THINK THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MUCAPES RISE
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. 0-3 KM AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR ALSO
INCREASE LATE WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
FUELING SECONDARY MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE
THE SYSTEM TO BRING FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD OCCUR GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH
BACKED WINDS. THUS THE ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR THIS
AREA.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH WE CAN
DESTABILIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE IN THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH THE VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND STILL NEARLY FULL RIVERS...STREAMS AND
RESERVOIRS WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THESE AREAS THAT
CANNOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND THE EASTERN TROF WILL DEEPENG
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.
BAROCLINIC DEEPENING FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT EJECTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES DIVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROF.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND EACH HAS SLIGHT
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES. WITH THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
AND THE COLD FLOW OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND -SHRA TO CONTINUE FROM SUN-WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
THIS WILL HELP KEEP SIGNIFICANT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
NO CHANGES TO TAFS AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN
SERIOUS DOUBT AS TO TIMING AND IMPACTS ON BOTH SITES. AS NOTED IN
UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING EAST AND
GIVEN PRESENT RATE OF DECLINE WILL BE LUCKY TO GIVE SOME SPRINKLES
TO KSBN IN A FEW HOURS. NEW STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE IN IOWA MAY
MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT REALY WILD ABOUT
ARRIVAL TIMING OF RAIN INTO BOTH SITES (8 TO 10Z WINDOW). WHILE
INITIALLY PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS WILL RIDE WITH IT AS WE
WATCH DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR INZ003-012>015-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...FISHER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
726 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS DOES EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ON SOUTHERN FLANK HAS BEEN
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NE ILLINOIS BEGINNING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL ON THE AREA WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. MAJORITY OF HI RES MODELS EITHER OBLITERATE THIS
AREA...SHIFT EAST WITH SLOW WEAKENING TREND OR DIVES SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO BETTER THETA E AXIS. SW FLANK OF CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE/DEVELOP SE. FOR NOW TIMING OF GRIDS
APPEARS SPOT ON ALTHOUGH LIKELY POPS INTO WESTERN AREAS CLOSE TO
6Z MAY BE OVERDOING IT AND MAY REQUIRE AN UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS.
MAIN AREA OF INTEREST NOW LIGHTING UP OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS NCENTRL IOWA ON NOSE OF DEEPER THETA E PLUME. TOR WATCH
JUST ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. ASSUMING NO MESOSCALE FEATURES
INTERFERE AHEAD OF THE STORMS THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SE FOLLOWING THE THETA E GRADIENT. WITH MODELS NOT
MAKING UP THEIR MIND WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL BE IT`S ANYBODIES
GUESS HOW FAST IT TURNS (IF AT ALL). WILL LEAVE GRIDS ALONE AS
WELL AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEE HOW NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNFOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
AS USUAL WITH SUMMER CONVECTION...A VERY COMPLICATED SETUP WITH
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY CONVECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
UPSTREAM TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
CONVECTION IN IL HAS STALLED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION OVER IA BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURGING BOUNDARY. EXPECT EARLY
EVENING TO BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT FIRST FOCUS WILL BE ON DECAYING
COMPLEX FROM IA MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR
AND RAP NOW PICKING UP ON THIS WHILE LOWER RES SPECTRAL MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH. THINK THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MUCAPES RISE
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. 0-3 KM AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR ALSO
INCREASE LATE WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
FUELING SECONDARY MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE
THE SYSTEM TO BRING FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD OCCUR GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH
BACKED WINDS. THUS THE ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR THIS
AREA.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH WE CAN
DESTABILIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE IN THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH THE VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND STILL NEARLY FULL RIVERS...STREAMS AND
RESERVOIRS WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THESE AREAS THAT
CANNOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND THE EASTERN TROF WILL DEEPENG
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.
BAROCLINIC DEEPENING FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT EJECTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES DIVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROF.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND EACH HAS SLIGHT
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES. WITH THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
AND THE COLD FLOW OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND -SHRA TO CONTINUE FROM SUN-WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
THIS WILL HELP KEEP SIGNIFICANT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
NO CHANGES TO TAFS AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN
SERIOUS DOUBT AS TO TIMING AND IMPACTS ON BOTH SITES. AS NOTED IN
UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING EAST AND
GIVEN PRESENT RATE OF DECLINE WILL BE LUCKY TO GIVE SOME SPRINKLES
TO KSBN IN A FEW HOURS. NEW STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE IN IOWA MAY
MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT REALY WILD ABOUT
ARRIVAL TIMING OF RAIN INTO BOTH SITES (8 TO 10Z WINDOW). WHILE
INITIALLY PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS WILL RIDE WITH IT AS WE
WATCH DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR INZ003-012>015-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...FISHER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
717 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS SW AND FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY STORMS HAVE FIRED UP JUST NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BUT ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND WILL BE AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG I-80 AND THE METRO AREA. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...AFT
09Z OR 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PROVIDING
SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. MUCH OF THIS AREA REMAINS
CAPPED AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HIGH
CAPE VALUES AVAILABLE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS LOCATION THEY
LIKELY WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON INITIATION WITH STRONG VEERING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A TORNADIC THREAT THROUGH THE MID-
EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THINKING THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LLJ DEVELOPS
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE
NORTH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. STORM
REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BETWEEN 02Z TO 05Z THURSDAY OVER
THIS CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE FRONT SHOULD LIGHT UP ALONG
THIS REGION. THE 24.19Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHES THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS BUT STILL LOOKING
AT A BREAK BETWEEN REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING MORE LIKELY
STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN SHORT WAVE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY 12Z...BUT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MORNING. AS FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THURSDAY...EXPECTING A BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL BE HELD BACK IN THE
70S FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF IOWA
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS COOL FRONTS DROP
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE
LITTLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFT 14Z FM NW TO
SE AS SFC WIND BECOMES NRLY AFT 09Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WILL STILL NEED TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE WATCH FARTHER WEST. VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 13-14KFT RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY AND
WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL ALREADY TODAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. THUS...EXPANDED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS AND QPF
CONSIDERABLY B/T 03-09Z THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WAS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR. A WEAK
LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS IOWA WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING BACK ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
18Z SFC DATA PLACES AN INFERRED LOW JUST EAST OF KOMA WITH A WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KSTL. DEW POINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
RADAR AND RAP TRENDS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MEANS THE COMPLEX WILL BE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECONDARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN WESTERN IOWA MAY POSE THE BETTER
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. IF SEVERE STORMS DO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD BE MORE AT
THREAT.
AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GROW UPSCALE AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY A THREAT AS STORMS
MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY...RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS PLAUSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY...RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE REMAINS IN THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN PER THE 12Z NAM...ALTHOUGH
THAT PARTICULAR MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH ON QPF. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS
THROUGH THE REGION IN SHARPENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FORCING WILL
EXIT QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A DRY PERIOD CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GUIDE
PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS BLENDED
POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ARE REASONABLE. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
TOUCHING THE LOWER 80S.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR OR MVFR WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER WEST-CENTRAL IOWA WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE E/SE WITH TIME. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MOSTLY AFTER 03Z-05Z/THURSDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR. MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR
STORMS TO IMPACT KCID/KMLI/KBRL IS BETWEEN 06Z-012Z...EARLIEST AT
KCID AND LATEST AT KBRL. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE WITH MORE
AGGRESSIVE TEMPO GROUPS AS STORMS GET CLOSER.
UTTECH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOILS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
ALREADY QUITE MOIST AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
SATURATE THE SOILS. AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS AND SOME ARE IN FLOOD. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISES...SOME POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT...ON AREA RIVERS AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
KDVN 88D SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
JUST SOUTH OF I-80 IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DRIFTING SLOWLY
E-SE. FURTHER WEST...THE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR FREEPORT
THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES INTO FAR NE MO. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW
WINDS WERE SLOWLY ADVECTING IN A LESS HUMID AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WERE STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...WHILE
CENTRAL AND NW IA WERE IN THE 50S. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE
COLD CLOUD TOP ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MCS
COMPLEXES OVER MO...NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI.
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE CI CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BUREAU COUNTY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM.
$$
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAD DEVELOPED
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER
BOW ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPES OF 6000 J/KG IN NW MO WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IA (BEWARE OF THE GRADIENT). EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WAS 70 KNOTS...HELICITY 300 M2/S2 WITH 1 KM EHI OF 5. STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS EVIDENT ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF NEARLY
2 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN BRIEFLY QUIET
ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DETAILS WERE NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION
ABOVE BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END BY 10 OR 11 PM. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 60 ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE DVN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY OUR FAR SOUTH STILL HAVING A
CHANCE OF STORMS. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY WITH
ONLY THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN PROBLEM IS WHERE THE FRONT CURRENTLY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH
OVER OUR AREA IS GOING TO GO AND HOW FAST. INITIALLY THE FRONT
CAME FURTHER SOUTH FASTER THAN ANYTHING DEPICTED. THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT HAS STALLED NEAR A BURLINGTON TO GOODLAND TO OBERLIN TO
NORTON LINE. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LARGE SCALE OUTPUT...NOT DOING
WELL WITH THE FRONT POSITION. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY
RIGHT NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LESS BUT STILL NEAR PLUS 15.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION NEAREST
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING. SO GOING BY ABOVE REASONING WHICH MATCHES WHAT
THE RAP IS SHOWING...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION GOES THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW THEM MAKING IT
VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THEY WILL MAKE FURTHER
THAN INDICATED AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WENT AHEAD AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS VERY SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH. NOT
SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO/WHERE IT WILL BE SINCE THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SO POOR RIGHT NOW. NAM STILL DOES NOT HAVE IT THROUGH
THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW. OTHER OUTPUT HAS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DO HAVE HAVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SINCE AM NOT SURE OF THE FINAL FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
AREA JUST HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY
FRONTAL POSITION. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.
WITH LIMITING FORCING ALOFT I AM NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE WILL
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE
FLUX/MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND PEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. TRACK WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/FRONT POSITION...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE I COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH SLOWEST STORMS WOULD BE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. MODERATE
INSTABILITY A GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
LATER IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION/ LINGERING
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY
NIGHT. I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20...SINCE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THESE PERIODS.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
US WITH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF THROUGH
THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS AMPLIFIED NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PRIMARY STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA.
MODELS SHOW LEE TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
SHORTWAVES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OCCASIONAL KICKING
BACKDOOR FRONTS TOWARDS THE WESTERN PLAINS. TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS MOST PERIODS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL FROM THE ECMWF
WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS GFS/GEFS SHOWS LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING SLIGHTLY. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS...SO I LIMITED POPS TO 20/30. TUESDAY IS ALSO THE DAY WITH
THE LARGEST TEMP SPREAD ALOFT/AT THE SURFACE WITH GFS POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING NEAR 100F AND ECMWF CLOSER TO THE LOW/MID 90S. I KEPT MID-
UPPER 90S INHERITED FROM WEIGHTED BLEND CONSIDERING THE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT BOTH SITES. AFTER A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, SOME STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS WILL
BREAK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MONSOONAL/PACIFIC FLOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
LIFTED TO NEAR SCOTT CITY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG FRONT RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CAP WEAKENING
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE PWATS AND TD VALUES ARE
IMPRESSIVE...DEEP LAYER MIXING RATIOS/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LOCALLY WITHOUT
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING COULD HELP WITH
INITIATION...SO DESPITE THE DRY LAYERS ALOFT 20 TO 30 POPS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. VEERING SHEER PROFILES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER COULD
HELP SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ASSUMING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WARM FRONT BEFORE LOW LEVELS
STABILIZE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A
POTENTIAL BUT I AM STILL NOT SURE VIS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN FORECAST...SO WILL MONITOR SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE/TRENDS. FRONT SETS UP ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
100F TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND IN THE 90S TO THE NW. THIS
FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN AIDED BY HEIGHT FALLS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. I KEPT 20 POPS CONFINED TO
THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH DEPENDING ON CAP STRENGTH I COULD
SEE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST..SO I FAVOR STICKING WITH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE/NEAR ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE NOW IN PLACE OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS START OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF/GFS/NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS A
LITTLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT HAS
SAGGED DOWN THROUGH ABOUT THE WHOLE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LIFT MOVE AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PORTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND NORTH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ALWAYS A TRICKY AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SETUP FOR THE AREA. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAIN JET LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FRONT INITIALLY STAYS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAKE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
PRECIPITATION FORECAST MESSY. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES THE FAR WEST. ALSO POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE OR THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL
HELP DEVELOP STORMS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
FOR THE NIGHT...A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS IN
ADVANCE OF A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION. COMBINATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FAVORABLE THETA-E
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO CHANCE
POPS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE POPS TO BE RAISED FROM THIS.
AS STATED ABOVE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE IN POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LASTS...TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE MADE EVEN COOLER THAN WHAT
IS IN THERE NOW.
FRIDAY...MAIN JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
COLD AIR ALOFT...POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT ONCE AGAIN
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AGAIN TO HAVE TO MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES
COOLER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A RATHER STRONG/SHARP UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTH FLOW ALOFT.
HARD TO RULE OUT PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY IN MY
WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CRH_INIT DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO NICELY AND DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS THAT I WAS GIVEN.
THE ONLY TRULY DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO HOT OR WAY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF SOME
SORT. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY BY THE INIT AND DID NOT CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS
OR FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A FRONT THAT WILL STALL NEAR KMCK. DUE
TO LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING VFR I
LEFT MENTION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK FOR NOW. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT
LIFT NORTH AT KGLD AND THEN KMCK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH NOT TO MEET
INCLUSION CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MONSOONAL/PACIFIC FLOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
LIFTED TO NEAR SCOTT CITY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG FRONT RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CAP WEAKENING
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE PWATS AND TD VALUES ARE
IMPRESSIVE...DEEP LAYER MIXING RATIOS/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LOCALLY WITHOUT
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING COULD HELP WITH
INITIATION...SO DESPITE THE DRY LAYERS ALOFT 20 TO 30 POPS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. VEERING SHEER PROFILES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER COULD
HELP SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ASSUMING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WARM FRONT BEFORE LOW LEVELS
STABILIZE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A
POTENTIAL BUT I AM STILL NOT SURE VIS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN FORECAST...SO WILL MONITOR SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE/TRENDS. FRONT SETS UP ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
100F TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND IN THE 90S TO THE NW. THIS
FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN AIDED BY HEIGHT FALLS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. I KEPT 20 POPS CONFINED TO
THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH DEPENDING ON CAP STRENGTH I COULD
SEE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST..SO I FAVOR STICKING WITH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE STARTING TO
AMPLIFY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEPENING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SO MADE VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CRH_INIT GRIDS. LOOK FOR THE MOST ACTIVE AND WET PART OF THE
PERIOD TO BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA WITH THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP AS MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS
OR FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A FRONT THAT WILL STALL NEAR KMCK. DUE
TO LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING VFR I
LEFT MENTION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK FOR NOW. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT
LIFT NORTH AT KGLD AND THEN KMCK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH NOT TO MEET
INCLUSION CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE STARTING TO
AMPLIFY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEPENING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SO MADE VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CRH_INIT GRIDS. LOOK FOR THE MOST ACTIVE AND WET PART OF THE
PERIOD TO BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA WITH THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP AS MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FRONT WHICH
PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGLD.
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT KGLD SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGHER RH. LATER TUESDAY EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO B CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EXTEND WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. A NEARLY ZONAL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED
FROM NORTH OF CNU AND EXTENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF P28, THEN
WEST TO NORTH OF LBL. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAYS.
ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON QPF ACROSS THE CWA AND
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF SHOW NO QPF ACROSS THE CWA.
EARLY THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT. THE HRRR AND
NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS, THEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THEREFORE, I`LL KEEP A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE STORMS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED. IF A
SURFACE BASED STORM WERE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT COULD BECOME
SEVERE OR STRONG GIVEN MLCAPES OF 2,000 J/KG AND 30 KTS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SHOULD LIMIT HAIL
SIZE FROM ANY ORGANIZED STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY SEE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE NE BORDER.
TONIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE NE BORDER. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE. I KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA IN CASE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE FRONT. ANY COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND
WESTERN NE SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE THE
QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
THEY WILL LIKELY SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES LOCATED IN CENTRAL KS CLOSER
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. DEWPOINT ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO
REACH THE LOW 100S. ON THURSDAY THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NORTHEAST
KS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY
DURING PEAK HEATING. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT THERE COULD
BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE 80S AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE 90S. STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE CAP BREAKS AND IF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT CAN SUPPLY ENOUGH LIFT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECPITITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. ALSO, THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SHORTWAVES TRACKING OUT OF CANADA AND OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING MORE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, THE COLD FRONT WAS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
WITH WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HENNECKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND HOW HOT DOES IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE/NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
NOW IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS...CANADIAN...
AND THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET WELL NORTH. POSSIBLY A WEAK REAR QUADRANT
THAT MOVES ACROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SURFACE TROUGH
RESIDES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PROBLEM IN THE
BEGINNING COULD BE IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG PLUS THE MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW STRONG THE MID LIFT WILL BE. MODEL QPF IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE GETTING MORE THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY SHOWN. CHOSE TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY AND ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING
UP. A WEAKER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEM IS IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THEY ARE IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH.
THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND ONLY ABOUT
HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NAM. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR PLUS 15. SO WHERE WILL THE SURFACE FOCUS BE
AND IF THE CAP WILL BREAK. ALSO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LIFT IS IN
QUESTION. AGAIN DUE TO A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF FEATURES...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. SO ONCE AGAIN CHOSE ONLY TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD FEEL A HIGHER CHANCE IS
DESERVED.
DUE TO THE BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM THEY MAKE IT. CHOSE TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND CLOSER TO THE OUTPUT THAT HAS BEEN DOING BETTER RECENTLY.
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL POSITION CONTINUE. MAJORITY OF THE
OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO FELT BETTER ABOUT GOING COOLER. PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
HOURS SUPPORT HAVING THE AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS START THE AMPLIFICATION
PROCESS TO A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. FLOW
BECOMES SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION
OF WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
INITIALLY HAVE THE FRONT STAY OR START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL COLD INTRUSIONS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS GAVE ME DUE TO
THE INITIAL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST ACTIVE
AND WET PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT IT BECOMES DRIER AS THE RIDGE EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT WARM UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FRONT WHICH
PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGLD.
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT KGLD SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGHER RH. LATER TUESDAY EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS OUR CWA...AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER RATE THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A PRETTY GOOD CAP
ACROSS THE REGION...ONCE OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...EXPECT WE WILL BREAK OUR CAP AND TAP INTO
SOME CONVECTION AND DECENT SHEAR. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
STARTING POPPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY OVER THE LAST FEW RADAR
SCANS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SOON TO FOLLOW. AS
SUCH...BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY...STILL
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...WITH THE BULK SUB
SEVERE. STILL COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY STRONGER STORMS
HOWEVER. LOWERED POPS ALONG LMK/S CWA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS SINCE THE FRONT IS EVEN MORE SHEARED AS YOU HEAD WEST
TOWARDS THEIR AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH 18Z. BUT AFTER THAT...AT LEAST 30 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH IS INITIALIZING VERY WELL SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM OTHER HI RES MODELS...WENT
AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE THIS
DIDN/T CREATE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES...DO EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE TO BE CONTAINED ALONG AND THEN SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LED
TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH...REDUCING
THEM DOWN TO ISOLATED...BECOMING SCATTERED ONCE STORMS DROP BELOW
THE OHIO RIVER AREA. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER TENNESSEE...NOTHING ELSE HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
FAVOR OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AND APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM. IN FACT...IF
THE HI RES MODELS WORK OUT...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES
VERY LOW COVERAGE...SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO CHANGES TO
SEVERE THREATS AS DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION...BUT IS BECOMING
SHEARED OUT AS IT NEARS KENTUCKY. SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE LATEST RADAR SCANS...BUT EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY TO START UP AROUND 20Z AS WE REACH OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. CIGS ARE MAINLY SCT ACROSS THE REGION...HIGH MVFR AND
LOW END VFR. AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...EXPECT CIG
HEIGHTS TO REMAIN THE SAME...THOUGH BECOMING BKN AT TIMES. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...EXPECT PRECIP
TO COME TO AN END AND VIS AND CIGS TO GO BACK TO VFR.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...STILL EXPECTING
SOME GOOD POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTER TOMORROW AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 121 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Made a few updates to the forecast, mainly to delay any onset of
pops and to slightly lower coverage. The latest hi-res model runs
including the last few runs of the HRRR and the WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM all
depict rather sparse coverage of convection this afternoon. The
latest AMDAR soundings continue to depict a cap around 700-800mb.
While not unbreakable, this cap coupled with very weak convergence
along the effective boundary now crossing the Ohio River suggest
coverage should only be about 20-30% at best, with the best chances
being across southern and eastern KY.
Updated at 915 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Made a few adjustments to the going forecast this morning. The
latest satellite and observational trends depict a few boundaries in
play today across the region. The first is the synoptic cold front,
which currently lies across portions of central Ohio into central
Indiana. However, another boundary was present in between
Bloomington and Madison, IN. These boundaries will likely serve as
the triggers for convection today, with convection already ongoing
along the synoptic boundary in OH.
The 00Z hi-res NCAR/NSSL ensembles along with the latest runs of the
HRRR depict the similar idea of this secondary boundary currently
north of Madison, IN serving as the primary focus for convection
this afternoon. This would place the best chance for convective
development and the resultant severe threat mainly south of the Ohio
River. MLCAPEs will rise to strongly unstable levels (3000+ J/kg),
but deep-layer shear (0-6km) will be lacking at only about 20
knots. Therefore, think this will be very similar to Sunday`s
setup across southern KY with pulse strong/severe convection capable
of marginally severe hail and isolated bouts of damaging winds given
the drier mid-level air aiding in wet microburst potential.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Updated at 310 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon...
Another round of strong to severe storms is expected today as a cold
front approaches and moves through the region. This morning will
start out quite warm. Temperatures across the region are still in
the mid 70s to around 80. Lows are expected to be only in the mid
to upper 70s. Some of the mesoscale models are suggesting a few
showers will be possible across east central KY before daybreak and
a boundary is approaching this region this morning, so have added
isolated chances for thunderstorms there. In addition, some showers
along the outflow boundary from convection over IL could move into
southern IN by around daybreak.
After the sun comes up we will heat up quickly with the region
becoming quite unstable by mid day. Sounding from both the GFS and
NAM show CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg by mid day. However, effective
shear will be marginal at best, with the better shear further to the
north. Storms look to develop by the 15-18Z time frame, with better
coverage expected through the afternoon to early evening hours. The
activity is expected to start across the northern portion of the
forecast area and move south through the afternoon as the front
pushes in from the north. There will be several focusing mechanisms
for storms this afternoon including differential heating along the
edge of the cloud shield from overnight convection, the remnant
outflow boundary, and finally the front itself late in the afternoon
to early evening. Strong to severe storms are possible with damaging
winds and hail.
The storms from this afternoon should move out from mid to late
evening. Much of the overnight hours should then be quiet. However,
an MCS is expected to develop across the Midwest and dive southeast
overnight. The remnants of this system may affect portions of
southern IN and south central KY by early Wednesday morning.
However, models are variable as to the placement of this system, so
will keep just low pops in the forecast late tonight into
Wednesday morning for this system. Wednesday afternoon looks to be
dry as high pressure builds in from the north.
Temperatures today will be hot once again with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will peak in the mid 90s to
around 100. With the front moving through, lows tonight will be a
bit cooler than they have been lately in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Highs on Wednesday look to be just a bit cooler as well, topping out
in the mid to upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Thursday looks to be the last hot, muggy day before a pattern change
brings plentiful showers/storms for Thurs night through Saturday and
cooler weather for the weekend and beginning of next week.
Upper level ridging centered to our south should keep much of the
area dry Wed night into Thurs with the main convective activity
focused to our north along a cold front. Still can`t rule out a
20-30% chance of a shower/storm Wed night/Thurs especially over
southern IN closer to the boundary and ongoing convection, so will
continue low precip chances. With a strong southwesterly flow on
Thurs, expect temps to climb into the low to mid 90s for highs.
Heat index readings should soar into the low 100s Thurs afternoon.
Sensitive groups should use caution if outdoors.
Thursday night the cold front will begin to push south toward our
region bringing showers/storms with it. The hot, humid airmass
ahead of the front will provide good fuel for convection as it
enters our region. Also, models indicate that multiple ripples of
weak low pressure will likely ride along the front as it pushes
south into our region. Forcing and instability seem ideal for
strong to severe storms as the front slowly pushes through the
region Thurs night through early Saturday. An upper trough will
arrive Sat morning helping to enhance forcing along the boundary.
So Thursday night through Sat morning looks to be a stormy period
with multiple rounds of convection possible. It`s tough to pinpoint
exact timing on any strong/severe storms at this point as storm
strength and evolution will be dependent on the cold front, cloud
cover, and mesoscale boundaries. However, strong/severe storms will
certainly be possible sometime Thur night through early Saturday
with strong winds and hail being the main threats. With the cold
front looking to stall over the region a bit, heavy rainfall and
perhaps some minor flooding may also become a threat. Stay tuned as
we go through the week and the forecast details hopefully become a
bit more clear.
Most of the precipitation will be clear of the area by Sat evening
with Sunday being mostly dry. Another upper level shortwave and
cold front will arrive for Monday bringing another chance for
showers and storms.
The biggest change in the weather for this weekend will be cooler
temperatures behind the cold front. Highs should be limited to the
upper 70s/lower 80s from Saturday through through first part of next
week! Night time lows will drop back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 112 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Thunderstorm coverage is looking to be rather sparse this
afternoon/evening as a mid-level cap keeps things at bay, therefore
have removed all VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF. Probably could also
have removed it at KBWG, but guidance is still suggesting some
isolated to widely scattered development possible there so will
leave it in for now.
Otherwise, the front moves through all sites tonight, allowing drier
air to filter into the region. KBWG will be on the edge of the dry
air push, so some fog will be possible there. The density of this
fog will likely be dependent on the coverage of high clouds
streaming in overnight from the west and just how far south the
surface dry air gets. For now, will continue with just MVFR vsbys.
Wednesday will be a pleasant day, with generally light winds and VFR
conditions as high pressure briefly builds into the Ohio Valley.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH IS INITIALIZING VERY WELL SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM OTHER HI RES MODELS...WENT
AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE THIS
DIDN/T CREATE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES...DO EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE TO BE CONTAINED ALONG AND THEN SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LED
TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH...REDUCING
THEM DOWN TO ISOLATED...BECOMING SCATTERED ONCE STORMS DROP BELOW
THE OHIO RIVER AREA. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER TENNESSEE...NOTHING ELSE HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
FAVOR OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AND APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM. IN FACT...IF
THE HI RES MODELS WORK OUT...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES
VERY LOW COVERAGE...SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO CHANGES TO
SEVERE THREATS AS DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL KEEP VCTS TO PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER TENNESSEE...NOTHING ELSE HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
FAVOR OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AND APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM. IN FACT...IF
THE HI RES MODELS WORK OUT...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES
VERY LOW COVERAGE...SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO CHANGES TO
SEVERE THREATS AS DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL KEEP VCTS TO PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TO PROVIDE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TO PROVIDE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
05Z RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...BUT HRRR
CONTINUES TO REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH SOME LOW POPS TO BE SAFE AS
THERE IS STILL AN APPARENT BOUNDARY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN FRANKFORT AND LOUISVILLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA/OHIO. GIVEN THE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIFT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THE HI-RES MODELS
MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WILL TOSS IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 06Z AND REACH
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IF WE DO GET
CONVECTION...OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION COULD KEEP STUFF GOING PAST
SUNRISE...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY MID MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
IN THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN KY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BUILT A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT
THE SFC...THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH
VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS AND IS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY. THESE HAVE TO
SOME EXTENT DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER THAN
TO FRESHEN UP HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...SKY COVER
HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD DROPPING SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND GREAT LAKES WILL BATTLE AGAINST AN
ELONGATED AND FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH FEATURE EXERTS THE GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT
RUNS...AND PAST TRENDS FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MANAGE TO DIG ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AS THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO A DESTABILIZED
AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AMPLE MOISTURE
AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S...TO
NEAR 100 AT PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
PROVIDE ONLY MINOR RELIEF...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH OUR TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE BY MID WEEK...WITH STRONG WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
KY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNER STATES AS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DEEPENING SHORTWAVES AND FALLING
HEIGHTS. BY SATURDAY...THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FIND ITSELF IN IN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN IN WHICH MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES TRAPPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SET UP ALONG THE WNW
FLOW...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. EACH
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVEN SOME MCS ACTIVITY AS THE NW FLOW DEEPENS. WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY HELPING TO PLAY A ROLL...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT HEATING CONTINUING.
BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MAINLY AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA UNLESS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH. A SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...PLACING ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN GET
HUNG UP ACROSS KY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING OUR BEST SLAM
DUNK RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...EXPECT HEAVIEST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK HEATING. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL ALSO
EXHIBIT THE BEST INSTABILITY UNDER SW FLOW...WITH CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT ABOVE 3 AND 4000 J/KG...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE IN PLACE.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK...BUT
STILL EXPECT THESE TWO DAYS TO EXHIBIT THE BEST STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SO TOO WILL THE TEMPERATURES. LOW
80S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH THE COLD
FRONT WOULD HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO OUR EAST MONDAY...WILL GENERATE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR WESTWARD AS EASTERN KY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TO PROVIDE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 905 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Forecast is on track for the overnight period. Cirrus from
convection upstream and earlier today will remain overhead. Complex
of storms currently in southern/southeast Iowa will nose dive
southward and is expected to weaken before approaching the area but
likely to bring more cirrus for the overnight and morning hours. It
may lay out an outflow boundary which could be the focus for
thunderstorm development tomorrow.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Afternoon...
Thunderstorms to our north in Michigan are sending plenty of
subsiding cirrus our way this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
indicates our cumulus field is being held at bay because of this
flow aloft, and latest radar over western KY shows earlier cells are
decaying as well. Cannot rule out an isolated shower surviving in
our southwest.
Latest HRRR indicates a line of storms would fire in southeast
Iowa/northern Illinois and head southeast through the evening,
perhaps getting to our area as just a line of gusty winds or even a
very isolated shower by daybreak Tuesday. Would expect wherever this
boundary sets up to be the focus for further convection by late
morning or early afternoon Tuesday. NAM soundings are very unstable
for the afternoon, and surface temp/dewpoints are in line with what
we expect tomorrow. Soundings show a layer of dry air in the 600-700
mb range, allowing the chance for both larger hail and stronger
downburst winds. Bust potential for this forecast would be just how
many clouds remain from the line that comes through overnight and
how this affects surface temperatures. Clouds over LEX this hour are
keeping temperatures ~5 degrees cooler than areas in the clear! Will
highlight potential for severe wind gusts and hail in the stronger
storms with our hazardous weather outlook.
Again, highs Tuesday will depend greatly on extent of clouds in the
morning. Based on current forecast, expect highs around 90. This
should push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for most
locations. The best chance to get up to around 100 would be south of
the I-64 corridor and west of a Bardstown to Glasgow line.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an expansive ridge across the southern CONUS, placing the
Ohio Valley on the periphery of the swift northwest flow found
across much of the northern CONUS. This regime will amplify through
the end of the long term period as the southern ridge breaks down
and a trough builds into the Ohio Valley, bringing some relief from
the precip chances and the hot and humid weather we`ve experienced
as of late.
Generally low-resolution synoptic models are notorious for
struggling with convection and MCS development, so confidence in the
long term period on timing and convective coverage is generally low,
especially Wednesday. That being said, have attempted to best time
the convection using a general model blend and ensemble data. This
method brings just chance pops to the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as there does not appear to be any substantial
triggering PV anomaly to spark convection.
By Thursday, the southern ridge will begin to break down as a strong
trough dives into the northern CONUS. Timing as of now keeps much
of the convection just north of the region through much of the
daylight hours on Thursday. Good southwesterly flow ahead of an
area of low pressure coupled with some expected sunshine and 850mb
temps rising to around 20C means Thursday could end up being quite
warm, assuming clouds/precip remain to the north. Have gone with
highs in the low to mid 90s, which coupled with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, will push heat index values on either side of 100
degrees.
The trough and associated surface front will slowly push through the
region Thursday night into Friday night. Mid-level flow will be
sufficient to support some strong/severe storms, but the potential
for storms Thursday night may hinder destabilization on Friday given
the expected cloud cover. If we are able to see some sun break out
on Friday, then a few strong/severe storms will be possible. Again,
predictability in the mesoscale details at this timeframe are rather
low, but the strength of the system pushing through does support the
potential for some strong/severe storm development, especially
across southern KY on Friday. Given the slow movement of the front
through the area, we could also have some local flooding issues as
well, so that will be something to continue to monitor.
The passing cold front and building trough aloft will make for
rather pleasant conditions moving in by the weekend. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs on Saturday and
Sunday. Conditions should be generally dry Saturday night through
Sunday, as the deeper moisture finally gets shunted to the east with
the passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 106 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the night with
winds out of the SW and cirrus streaming across the region. For
today the atmosphere will become unstable with the daytime heating
and a cold front will approach from the north. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop either along this front or residual
outflow boundaries or both. Will continue the mention of
thunderstorms through the afternoon hours in all TAF sites. Winds
will shift a bit more to the west this morning with sustained winds
in the 10-14 knot range through the day.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
911 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DIFFERENCE WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...IS STRONGEST ACTIVITY
IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND
INSTABILITY IS JUST A TAD LESS...THUS STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...MAINLY FROM BOUNDARY COLLISION...THAT
COULD PRODUCE A DOWNBURST. OTHERWISE...A LOT OF LIGHTNING...AND
WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...WITH
LEFT OVER CONVECTION CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...BEFORE MOST
LAND AREAS WILL BE SHOWER FREE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
LANDBREEZE.
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT TO INCREASE THEM OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS...AND REDUCING THEM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BASED ON
LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER C LA MOVING W OF AEX...NOT LIKELY TO BE A
PROBLEM. LARGER COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN FROM MS/SE LA WILL LIKELY AFFECT LFT/ARA THIS
EVENING 01-04Z...PLACING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS AT ARA/LFT.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE IN THE DISSIPATING STAGE BY THE TIME/OR IF
IT REACHES LCH...LEAVING ONLY VCTS AT THIS TIME THRU 03Z. AFTER
03-04Z...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR THU...EXPECTING ISO
SHRA/TSRA...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL GIVE
THE AREA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY.
SHORT RANGE...THE HRRR DEPICTS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE
ATCHAFALAYA IN EASTERLY FLOW AND MOVING INTO THE ACADIANA AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS DUE TO THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS HIGH
THETA AIR AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUING
ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT ON A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROF INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
OUR AREA AND BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR
AREA AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 91 77 90 / 40 40 20 30
LCH 75 90 79 88 / 20 40 10 30
LFT 77 92 77 88 / 30 40 10 30
BPT 76 90 78 89 / 20 30 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
620 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER C LA MOVING W OF AEX...NOT LIKELY TO BE A
PROBLEM. LARGER COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN FROM MS/SE LA WILL LIKELY AFFECT LFT/ARA THIS
EVENING 01-04Z...PLACING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS AT ARA/LFT.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE IN THE DISSIPATING STAGE BY THE TIME/OR IF
IT REACHES LCH...LEAVING ONLY VCTS AT THIS TIME THRU 03Z. AFTER
03-04Z...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR THU...EXPECTING ISO
SHRA/TSRA...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL GIVE
THE AREA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY.
SHORT RANGE...THE HRRR DEPICTS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE
ATCHAFALAYA IN EASTERLY FLOW AND MOVING INTO THE ACADIANA AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS DUE TO THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS HIGH
THETA AIR AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUING
ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT ON A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROF INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
OUR AREA AND BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR
AREA AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 98 73 91 77 / 50 30 40 20
LCH 95 75 90 79 / 30 30 40 10
LFT 93 77 92 77 / 50 30 40 10
BPT 92 76 90 78 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE OUR TWO POTENTIAL HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...HEAT AND
SEVERE WEATHER...THE PICTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AT THIS MID
MORNING JUNCTURE. THE OVERNIGHT MODELS DID NOT RESOLVE THE EARLY
MORNING MCS AND OTHER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA VERY WELL...LEAVING
THE HRRR AND RAP AS THE TWO MODELS WHICH GIVE SOME SORT OF INSIGHT
INTO WHAT MIGHT UNFOLD.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WINDS. JUST BY MIXING THE BL OF THE
12Z KIAD RAOB INTO THE MID 90S PRODUCES SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STABLE LAYERS IN THE PROFILE (NOTABLY AROUND 400 MB) CAN
SOMETIMES INTERFERE WITH UPDRAFT STRENGTH. AM STILL LOOKING FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF TORNADO IF THE RIGHT
STORM-SCALE INTERACTION TAKES PLACE...BUT THIS RISK IS VERY LOW. AREAS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LESS STORM COVERAGE
DUE TO A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THE SOUTHERLY EXTEND
OF STORMS IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE REDUCED SHEAR AND
POSSIBLE DIURNAL DOWNTURN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTBY FOR
ALREADY-DEVELOPED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROSPER. THE BEST WINDOW
FOR STORM TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 9 PM. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STORMS WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...SO
THE ACTUAL TIME FRAME MAY BE A BIT QUICKER. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT HIGH PWAT/S AND LOW FFG (SOME POCKETS
OF LESS THAN ONE INCH) COULD PRODUCE LOCAL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS.
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY OR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. HOWEVER...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
COULD PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURE RISES (AND THE INSTBY NOTED
ABOVE)...BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER TOO.
WL HV NWLY FLOW DURING THE OVNGT HRS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO CWFA.
DEWPTS LWR-MID 60S. HV REFLECTED THIS IN MIN-T FCST...ALTHO HV HELD
ONTO A PINCH OF WARMTH CHO-DCA-DMH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
COMPARED TO TODAY...TUESDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE
EXPECTED. A CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
MAINLY NEAR ROANOKE. AT THIS TIME...ONLY AN ISO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN AUGUSTA/NELSON COUNTIES.
CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S TO 70S IN THE METROS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT RETREATS AS A WARM FRONT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY CAUSING MOISTURE TO
RETURN FROM SW TO NE. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE ABOUT 5 DEG FROM
THURSDAY MORNING TO THE EVENING. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM FRONT WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS REGION MAY BE PRIME FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A THETA-E AXIS SETTING UP
ACROSS NC/VA WHICH WILL A PROVIDE ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...E-NE FLOW FROM THE NORTH MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT STABLE AIR
INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE
SEEMS TO BE VERY SATURATED THIS WEEKEND AND MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. WSWLY WINDS WL INCR DURING THE MIDDAY
HRS...W/ SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. A CDFNT WL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LT...MOST LKLY DURING THE EVNG. BUT TSRA WL LKLY DVLP AHD OF THE
FNT...IMPACTING THE AFTN PUSH. DID NOT TAKE FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN
TAFS DUE TO AREAL CVRG/TIMING CONSIDERATIONS...BUT BRIEF IFR WELL
W/IN REASON. VCTS RMK ADDED FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION. WL WORK TO
NARROW THAT WINDOW DOWN IN TAF CYCLES TO COME.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA SEEM TO BE
CONFINED OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAINING BLO SCA CRITERIA IN SSWLY FLOW ATTM...BUT ITS
ADMITTEDLY CLS. SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 AM.
AM STILL CARRYING SCA DURING THE MIDDAY-AFTN HRS AS PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT. MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS SHUD BE
ARND 20 KT...SO ITS A FAIRLY SOLID SCA. OVERLAPPING WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND...NMRS TSRA WL BE DVLPG LT DAY INTO THE EVNG HRS.
THESE STORMS WL FEED OFF OF THE HUMID AMS AND PRODUCE STRONG/LCLLY
DMGG GUSTS. MARINE WARNINGS /SMW/ WL LKLY BE ISSUED THIS PM.
THERE WL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF SUSTAINED WIND /OUTSIDE OF
TSRA/ IN THE LATE ENVG BEFORE NW FLOW KICKS IN.
A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...DO NOT BELIEVE THE DIRECTIONS WL
BE APPROPRIATE TO ADD MUCH TO THE DEPARTURE. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
SITE WL EVEN REACH CAUTION STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
DCA...98 SET IN 1988 AND 1874
IAD...96 SET IN 1988 AND 1965
BWI...97 SET IN 2010 AND 1894
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ052>057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED...BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND FOCUS HIGH
POPS SOUTH OF THE U.S. 422 CORRIDOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SAVE FOR EASTERN OHIO. HIGH RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE POINTING TO A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE
OF STORMS TRAVERSING SOUTH OF I-76 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS ONLY
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ATMOSPHERE ALREADY PRIMED FOR CONVECTION. LATEST 12Z
PIT RAOB INDICATES A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND O-6KM WINDS AROUND 40KTS. RAIN RATES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...SO DESPITE A LITTLE TRAINING OVER THE I-80
REGION...DO NOT SEE A HIGH WATER THREAT. ADDED GUSTY WIND
ATTRIBUTE TO WEATHER GRIDS AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
IN LATER UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER
RATHER QUICKLY ON TODAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
INSISTENT ON THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO
NOT FAVOR THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IN ANY FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUTSIDE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. ONGOING SHOWERS
WILL DEPART FKL AND DUJ BY 13-14Z LEAVING BKN MVFR OR VFR WEATHER
IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IR SATELLITE PICTURE ILLUSTRATES CLOUD TOPS
WARMING OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80/U.S. 422 MOVING SSE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY. BRIEF IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH IT BEING SUCH SHORT DURATION...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR IN THE TAF. IN FACT...MOSTLY
CARRIED VCTS UNTIL THINGS DEVELOP.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD OFFSET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES AT PITTSBURGH...THE
RECORD LOW HIGH FOR THIS DATE IS 76 SET WAY BACK IN 1888.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...98/FRIES
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...98
CLIMATE...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
750 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED...BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND TRENDS IN
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS FIERCE AS
IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY ANCHORED TO
UPPER FORCING...WHICH IS TRENDING EASTWARD...HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE VORTS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE LINE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
TO TREND TOWARD I-80 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EVEN WHILE
THE BULK OF THE FORCING TRANSLATES TO THE EAST GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHING DOES SEEM POISED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING PER MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNWARD MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER
RATHER QUICKLY ON TODAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
INSISTENT ON THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO
NOT FAVOR THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IN ANY FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUTSIDE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. ONGOING SHOWERS
WILL DEPART FKL AND DUJ BY 13-14Z LEAVING BKN MVFR OR VFR WEATHER
IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IR SATELLITE PICTURE ILLUSTRATES CLOUD TOPS
WARMING OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80/U.S. 422 MOVING SSE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY. BRIEF IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH IT BEING SUCH SHORT DURATION...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR IN THE TAF. IN FACT...MOSTLY
CARRIED VCTS UNTIL THINGS DEVELOP.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD OFFSET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FRIES
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
455 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND TRENDS IN
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS FIERCE AS
IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY ANCHORED TO
UPEPR FORCING...WHICH IS TRENDING EASTWARD...HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE VORTS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE LINE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
TO TREND TOWARD I-80 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EVEN WHILE
THE BULK OF THE FORCING TRANSLATES TO THE EAST GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHING DOES SEEM POISED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING PER MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNWARD MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER
RATHER QUICKLY ON TODAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
INSISTENT ON THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO
NOT FAVOR THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IN ANY FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NW PA BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS FOR FKL AND DUJ. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LLWS...AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIP
AND HOW MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...SO MAINTAINED A GENERAL VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN MOST
OF THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD SEEM THE CONVECTION THAT IS
ONGOING SHOULD START TO FOLLOW THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A RESULT...THE
CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ITS TREND OF
TRACKING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL LEAVE IT LARGELY NORTH OF I-80.
THIS MEANS ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA WILL BE OUR PROBLEM CHILD. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN EARLIER THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP A BIT MORE
THAN IT HAS...HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE LAST EVENING...RESULTING
IN MEDIOCRE ONGOING ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK CONVECTION DOES PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER DECOUPLING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
OUR AREA...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CHANGE OF AIR MASS THAT IS READILY
APPARENT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY
TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER RATHER QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS
FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO NOT FAVOR THE
FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN ANY
FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS
WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NW PA BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS FOR FKL AND DUJ. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LLWS...AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIP
AND HOW MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...SO MAINTAINED A GENERAL VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN MOST
OF THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD SEEM THE CONVECTION THAT IS
ONGOING SHOULD START TO FOLLOW THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A RESULT...THE
CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ITS TREND OF
TRACKING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL LEAVE IT LARGELY NORTH OF I-80.
THIS MEANS ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA WILL BE OUR PROBLEM CHILD. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN EARLIER THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP A BIT MORE
THAN IT HAS...HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE LAST EVENING...RESULTING
IN MEDIOCRE ONGOING ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK CONVECTION DOES PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER DECOUPLING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
OUR AREA...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CHANGE OF AIR MASS THAT IS READILY
APPARENT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY
TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER RATHER QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS
FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO NOT FAVOR THE
FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN ANY
FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS
WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON IT`S HEELS FOR WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE NW FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
WEAK TROUGHING/NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR THURSDAY. ALL
THE MODELS...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...HAVE THIS WAVE APPROACHING
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF THE WARM...MOIST...AIRMASS TO SUPPORT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. STRENGTHENING LOW AND
MID LEVEL JETS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SHEAR AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...IF THE STRONGER GFS IS CORRECT. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...DID NOT FEEL THE NEED TO STRAY MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL CHANGES FROM
RUN TO RUN.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
MERIDIONAL AS A STOUT RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND A LARGE TROF DEEPENS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...ALMOST-DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD JUST BELOW AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NW PA BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS FOR FKL AND DUJ. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LLWS...AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIP
AND HOW MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...SO MAINTAINED A GENERAL VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN MOST
OF THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE REGION SOUTH OF I-96
WILL SEE THE STEADIEST...AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...BY DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ONLY SEE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE RAINS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL DRY
OUT...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AT THIS POINT...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL STAY MILD
WITHOUT TOO MUCH HEAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 75 TO
80 INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST DILEMMA TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAP MODEL DATA SHOWS A
GLANCING BLOW OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE 01Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS
A BATCH OF RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.
SO...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THE CHANCES TAPER OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH AS THIS AREA IS MOST REMOVED
FROM THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OFF THE RAP ACROSS
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING OVERALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN AS THE FOCUS FOR THAT SHOULD BE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS MAY POSE MORE HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD I-94 TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IOWA. THIS FRONT ALREADY HAD A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF IOWA THAT WAS SPREADING AND
EXPANDING ENE. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A 35-40 KT DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN IL TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND INTO SW MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
ALSO CROSS THIS AREA AT THE SAME TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH THIS FAVORABLE FORCING BELIEVE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. INSTABILITY MEANWHILE IS
QUITE LOW...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA...WE WILL BE MONITORING FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON JET DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SAG SE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE I-94
CORRIDOR...BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE EXTENDED
WITH A UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WITH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RAINS...BUT WE WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW
BUT MAY GET A DIURNAL BOOST GIVEN STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT...AS WE DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ALONG I-96 AND
IFR ALONG I-94. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY STAY VFR AT KMKG AND
DROP TO MVFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNDER 10 KNOTS.
BOTTOM LINE...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH IFR/MVFR ADVANCING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FAIRLY BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SYCAMORE
CREEK NEAR HOLT. THE RIVER LEVEL IS CURRENTLY HOVERING RIGHT AT
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THIS PRODUCES FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER, IN LANSING MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE, AND
SECTIONS OF EAST MT. HOPE ROAD. SEVERAL OTHER RIVER FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN AFFECT ACROSS THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO RIVER
BASINS.
A SURFACE LOW AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WNW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH WILL SERVE
TO SUPPRESS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. A QUARTER
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST PROBABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 DID SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OF COURSE. AT THIS POINT...STANDING WATER REMAINS
PRIMARILY ONLY IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS SUCH AS FIELDS. SEVERE STORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO
STORM DRAINS SHOULD FARE BETTER. THE DECLINE OF RIVER LEVELS MAY BE
BRIEFLY SLOWED...BUT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SUPPORTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAST EVENING HAS NOW
LIFTED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA/DZ OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM THIS FEATURE HAS NOW ENDED
...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS PRESENTLY STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO
WNW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (NEAR 30 MPH) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR SOME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO BRING IN SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY...DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING STRATUS THIS
MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHILE WNW WINDS DIMINISH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
STAYS NORTH OF UPPER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NW UPPER
MI AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FIRST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION LIKELY WITH THE ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND RUNNING ALONG THE TIGHT
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THINK THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL COME DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE RESIDUAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND
THEN AGAIN HELPED BY DIURNAL HEATING ON THURSDAY. WITH THE WAVE
AROUND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID TRY TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE DEFINITION ON THE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. ON
THURSDAY...AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD LIMIT
THE SHOWER POTENTIAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.
THE WAVES FROM MID-LATE THIS WEEK WILL HELP AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL REINFORCE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT CMX THIS
EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT SAW WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS S ACROSS UPPER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNW 35 KNOT GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SUPPORTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAST EVENING HAS NOW
LIFTED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA/DZ OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM THIS FEATURE HAS NOW ENDED
...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS PRESENTLY STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO
WNW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (NEAR 30 MPH) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR SOME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO BRING IN SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY...DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING STRATUS THIS
MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHILE WNW WINDS DIMINISH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
STAYS NORTH OF UPPER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NW UPPER
MI AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE DAY WED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CAPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT OR BELOW 500J/KG...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF
SOME PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ON WED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP THAT FARTHER SW...SO THE BEST POPS ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WI BORDER.
A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO MON...WITH
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY JULY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT CMX THIS
EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT SAW WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS S ACROSS UPPER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNW 35 KNOT GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SUPPORTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAST EVENING HAS NOW
LIFTED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA/DZ OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM THIS FEATURE HAS NOW ENDED
...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS PRESENTLY STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO
WNW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (NEAR 30 MPH) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR SOME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO BRING IN SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY...DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING STRATUS THIS
MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHILE WNW WINDS DIMINISH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
STAYS NORTH OF UPPER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NW UPPER
MI AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE DAY WED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CAPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT OR BELOW 500J/KG...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF
SOME PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ON WED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP THAT FARTHER SW...SO THE BEST POPS ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WI BORDER.
A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO MON...WITH
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY JULY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEST WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNW 35 KNOT GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. THE
RESIDUAL MCV GENERATED FROM THE LARGE MCS EARLIER TODAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR NW LOWER MI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SHRA OVER NRN
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WERE MOVING IN.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHEST SB/MU CAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM NW WI THROUGH UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KT/25-35KT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. EVEN WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CAPE RECOVERY...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES WITH THE PRES RISE
MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NW
WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE DAY WED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CAPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT OR BELOW 500J/KG...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF
SOME PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ON WED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP THAT FARTHER SW...SO THE BEST POPS ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WI BORDER.
A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO MON...WITH
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY JULY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEST WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WIL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. THE
RESIDUAL MCV GENERATED FROM THE LARGE MCS EARLIER TODAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR NW LOWER MI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SHRA OVER NRN
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WERE MOVING IN.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHEST SB/MU CAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM NW WI THROUGH UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KT/25-35KT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. EVEN WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CAPE RECOVERY...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES WITH THE PRES RISE
MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NW
WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY. THAT WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHIFTING BACK TO THIS WEEK...THE FIRST WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT
IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THE BEST FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. DID BRUSH THE
KEWEENAW WITH THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A DECENT NUMBER OF
MODELS SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE REST
OF THE AREA TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE TROUGH BEING
OVER THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/FORCING AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREAS AND INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE
FROM CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY WESTWARD TOWARDS ONTONAGON COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER VALUES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG (BEST INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND TIED TO THE STRONG STORMS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAIRLY STRONG (APPROACHING 50KTS)...BUT
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...THAT IS ALL TIED TO THE STRONG JET
BETWEEN 5-6KM. THUS...THINK THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20KTS
ARE MORE REASONABLE AND BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
WHILE THAT FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAILING IT THAT
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER (ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC). THOSE WAVES WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
JULY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEST WIND. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WIL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
909 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL CLEAN
UP THE WORDING AND TWEAK THE HOURLY VALUES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK THE AREA OVER. RUC SUPPORTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY TO SOUTHWEST...WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE...THERE
WERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CATAHOULA/CONCORDIA PARISH.
THE HIRES SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER BY TEN AND ALL DONE BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH RAIN LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN RAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH INSTABILITY WANING...SHOWERS SHOULD
BE GOOD. LOWER 70S SEEMS GOOD ACROSS THE AREA ALSO. DEWPOINTS HAVE
MIXED DOWN TO NEAR 70...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SO OPPRESSIVE
TONIGHT. WILL GET UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 72 93 74 90 / 42 36 35 48
MERIDIAN 73 94 74 90 / 28 43 34 59
VICKSBURG 72 93 75 91 / 53 32 33 37
HATTIESBURG 74 92 74 91 / 23 46 31 49
NATCHEZ 71 92 74 90 / 53 41 24 39
GREENVILLE 71 95 75 92 / 52 25 32 42
GREENWOOD 71 94 75 90 / 41 23 32 54
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>041.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Hot and Steamy Weather Continues Through Mid Week...Cold Front
Will Bring Rain and Cooler Weather End of the Week...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A front has stalled out across the area. This frontal boundary
shows up very nicely on the visible satellite imagery and surface
obs this afternoon. The front was currently located from near
Nevada to near Eminence. This front will start to slowly back up
northward later this evening and tonight. There is a complex of
storms northwest of the Kansas City area which are moving east-
southeastward.
The latest Hi-Res models suggest this complex if it holds together
may clip our central Missouri counties late this afternoon and
early evening. The HRRR and the ARW continues to suggest a few
isolated showers and storms developing near the stalled out
frontal boundary across central Missouri into the eastern Missouri
Ozarks. There will be a limited risk for a strong storm or two
with small hail and gusty winds as the main threat. Any convection
should either dissipate or move off to the east of the area after sunset.
Wednesday and Thursday will be hot and humid with the upper level
ridge nosing in a bit over the area. High temperatures may be a
couple degrees warmer than today with most areas in the lower to
middle 90s. Heat index will be around 100. Southwest winds will be
gusty up to 30 mph for areas west of Highway 65.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A stronger shortwave will move through the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley region on Friday. This feature will begin to carve out a
trough across the eastern U.S. while an upper level ridge builds
across the western U.S. A cold front will move down into the
region starting Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin to impact portions of central Missouri late Thursday night
and area wide by Friday. Will not rule out a few strong storms
possible Friday with gusty winds and small hail the main threats.
The front will clear through the area by Friday night with rain
ending from north to south.
The weekend is shaping up to be extremely nice. Drier air will
move into the area with dewpoints in the 50s. The latest model
guidance came in a degree or two cooler with lows Saturday night
and Sunday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and Mostly sunny skies. Looks like the
below average temperatures will continue into early next week.
Another weak front may try to move into the area by Monday night
with a few showers and storms possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
Conditions will remain VFR at the terminals through the period. A
front located north of SGF could trigger some thunderstorms this
afternoon however these would likely remain north and east of SGF.
West winds will prevail this afternoon and evening before turning
back towards the south overnight. Low level wind shear looks even
less likely than previous nights.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Burchfield
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
920 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY PRECIP NOTED
ON RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE PRESENT WAS A WEAK AND
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE HAS BEEN SHOWING MAINLY CIRRUS AND FLAT CU
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THIS HAS TRIGGERED AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NEAR DICKINSON. BETTER DYNAMICS ARE FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS HAS
BEEN WHERE THE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
OCCURRING THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT BEEN SEVERE. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SPC EARLIER THIS EVENING...WE DECIDED TO REMOVE
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM OUR AREA AND REPLACE IT
WITH A MARGINAL RISK. AS A RESULT...I LOWERED POPS TO MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. UPDATED FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS BIG
HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WHAT WAS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE EASTERN ZONES HAS BEEN DISSIPATED BY CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED
CAPE VALUES FROM CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD. ACROSS
BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES CAPE VALUES REACH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
ALONG WITH SHEAR VALUES FROM 0 TO 6 KM REACHING 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
MID MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE 12Z NSSL WRF...SHOWS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE THE SNOWY MOUNTAINS AND THEN
STRENGTHENING ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY IN THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE HUNG AROUND IN SHERIDAN INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE RATHER QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...MODELS ARE NOT GIVING A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...AT LEAST
ACROSS PART OF THE AREA...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP THEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE SETUP FOR THURSDAY DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS STILL COULD BE STRONGER. THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE RISING HEIGHTS. THIS
WILL HELP TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME. THAT SAID ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...WHICH WILL
PLACES THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN FROM POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES EAST.
FRIDAY THE AREA IS WILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN
THEIR INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
VERY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO A LARGE 500-MB RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S F SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS OF 100 F IN MANY SPOTS
ON MONDAY WHEN 700-MB TEMPERATURES PEAK AT +15 TO +18 C. THE 12
UTC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE A BIT
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL SHOULD LET HIGHS DROP BACK
A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S F. THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
A DRY ONE AT THIS POINT SINCE MODEL OUTPUT HAS ONLY A WEAK SIGNAL
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE REGION UNDERNEATH THE LARGE
RIDGE ALOFT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THU FROM
ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO BRIDGER W. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THIS AREA. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THU. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/084 060/091 061/093 063/096 066/100 068/094 064/090
22/T 10/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 11/U
LVM 053/086 051/093 053/095 056/098 056/100 059/093 056/093
21/B 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 060/086 057/093 060/095 063/099 064/101 066/095 063/091
23/T 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/G 11/B 11/U
MLS 059/083 059/088 061/093 062/095 063/097 066/092 063/089
23/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
4BQ 059/081 058/086 058/090 060/093 062/095 065/092 061/088
24/T 31/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B 11/U
BHK 056/080 057/084 058/089 059/089 061/091 062/086 059/084
24/T 31/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 12/T
SHR 057/080 054/085 055/088 056/091 057/093 061/091 058/086
33/T 21/B 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
958 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. SHORTWAVE GENERATING A FEW ACCAS...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM KEEPS THE AREA DRY THIS MORNING AS DOES
THE HRRR. REMOVED POPS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
THOUGHT IN MIND. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
MORNING SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD KICK
OFF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAISED POPS A BIT MORE FROM
MILES CITY EASTWARD. CAPES PROGGED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ON THE GFS
WITH NEAR 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION. CAPES AND SHEAR
WEAKER IN THE WEST...SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED SEVERE WEATHER
THERE. THAT BEING SAID...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR DOES GET TO AROUND
30 KTS OVER THE WEST...ACCORDING TO THE RAP...SO SMALL HAIL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
AS OF 0830Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXISTS
FROM NEAR HARDIN TO CARTER COUNTY. THIS A RESULT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LATEST PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES NEAR AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FROM LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS...THUS EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
END OVER OUR SOUTHEAST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE. LOOKING TO THE
WEST...THERE IS AN AREA OF PV MOVING FROM OR TO CENTRAL ID. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE ASCENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP BEFORE NOON ACROSS OUR WEST PER
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER CAPES OF 1200+ J/KG AND UP TO 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HRRR/RAP SHOW A SURGE OF DRIER MIXED WEST
WINDS PUSHING THRU MLS-4BQ. THIS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER...
AND THIS MAY BE REASONABLE GIVEN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MT AS EARLY AS 18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH LINE
TONIGHT. WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET PLUS FORCING FROM THIS ENERGY WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EAST. COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS...ONE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ALREADY MENTIONED AND A SECOND IN
THE EVENING PER THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PWATS AND
DEEPER INSTABILITY AND IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES TO -5C
IN SOUTHEAST MT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND FEEL THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR EAST.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR WESTERN
AREAS WITH CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL TURN WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER IDAHO BEGINS TO INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY BRINGING A MORE STABLE PATTERN. STILL
HINTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE MONTANA DAKOTA
BORDER SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND A DOMINANT RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AND LATEST RUNS SHIFT IT A BIT
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND BRING SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS 95 TO
100 POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM MILES
CITY EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATER STORMS COULD FORM FARTHER TO THE
WEST AND COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT BILLINGS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. FOR THE REST OF THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/082 060/086 059/090 062/093 063/095 063/097
2/T 32/T 21/E 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U
LVM 084 049/084 053/086 052/091 054/095 056/096 056/097
3/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 087 056/086 059/087 059/091 061/094 062/096 062/097
2/T 32/T 22/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 085 059/083 060/084 059/087 061/090 061/092 063/093
3/T 44/T 32/T 32/T 10/U 01/U 11/U
4BQ 083 057/083 059/082 058/085 059/089 059/092 061/092
2/T 44/T 33/T 31/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 080 057/080 058/081 057/082 058/086 058/088 060/087
3/T 54/T 33/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 082 053/081 055/081 054/084 055/088 055/090 057/091
2/T 32/T 33/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
251 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
AS OF 0830Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXISTS
FROM NEAR HARDIN TO CARTER COUNTY. THIS A RESULT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LATEST PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES NEAR AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FROM LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS...THUS EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
END OVER OUR SOUTHEAST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE. LOOKING TO THE
WEST...THERE IS AN AREA OF PV MOVING FROM OR TO CENTRAL ID. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE ASCENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP BEFORE NOON ACROSS OUR WEST PER
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER CAPES OF 1200+ J/KG AND UP TO 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HRRR/RAP SHOW A SURGE OF DRIER MIXED WEST
WINDS PUSHING THRU MLS-4BQ. THIS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER...
AND THIS MAY BE REASONABLE GIVEN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MT AS EARLY AS 18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH LINE
TONIGHT. WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET PLUS FORCING FROM THIS ENERGY WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EAST. COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS...ONE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ALREADY MENTIONED AND A SECOND IN
THE EVENING PER THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PWATS AND
DEEPER INSTABILITY AND IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES TO -5C
IN SOUTHEAST MT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND FEEL THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR EAST.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR WESTERN
AREAS WITH CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL TURN WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER IDAHO BEGINS TO INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY BRINGING A MORE STABLE PATTERN. STILL
HINTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE MONTANA DAKOTA
BORDER SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND A DOMINANT RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AND LATEST RUNS SHIFT IT A BIT
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND BRING SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS 95 TO
100 POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OF KMLS WILL MOVE INTO
THE DAKOTAS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING TO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/082 060/086 059/090 062/093 063/095 063/097
2/T 32/T 21/E 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U
LVM 084 049/084 053/086 052/091 054/095 056/096 056/097
3/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 087 056/086 059/087 059/091 061/094 062/096 062/097
2/T 32/T 22/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 085 059/083 060/084 059/087 061/090 061/092 063/093
2/T 44/T 32/T 32/T 10/U 01/U 11/U
4BQ 083 057/083 059/082 058/085 059/089 059/092 061/092
2/T 44/T 33/T 31/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 080 057/080 058/081 057/082 058/086 058/088 060/087
3/T 54/T 33/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 082 053/081 055/081 054/084 055/088 055/090 057/091
2/T 32/T 33/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A CONVECTIVE STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE BORDER WITH SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOAKING
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING
SLIGHTLY...BUT IT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 50S.
A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS EVENING
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM/RGEM AND
THE HRRR IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LARGELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING AND
LOWERED POPS FOR THURSDAY. DESPITE THESE TRENDS...THERE STILL WILL
BE A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EVEN IF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION STAYS TO THE SOUTH.
AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD...AND THIS IS AN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH TYPICALLY CONTINUES THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DECENT. MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS DO SHOW
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE
CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HAVE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS AS THOUGH A CLOUDIER SKY...A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL YIELD SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE RESULTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
FRIDAY A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A DRY PUSH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE IMPROVEMENT
SEEN IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
IMPROVED SKY COVER INTO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY RANGE. THE
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +12C WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE JUNE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A WET WEEKEND. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE LAST COUPLE DETERMINISTIC RUNS GIVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF WESTERN
NY... WITH THE A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
WEST. THIS SET UP WILL YIELD A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT PLACES
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT... AND ALONG/NORTH
OF SHARPLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL EVOLVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. EXPECT SYNOPTIC ASCENT / RAINFALL TO EVOLVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN NY... BUT CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST BACK ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH / VORT ADVECTION EVOLVING OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHERLY AND BECOMING UPSLOPE. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW / 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO +6C / AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS... HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...STIFF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY MAKING THE COOL AND WET
WEATHER FEEL EVEN MORE RAW THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR RADIATION FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WITH THIS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE 3K FT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND RIVERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL LIKELY ARRIVE SATURDAY...THIS AN
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FIRST INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE...AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE THE ENTIRE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ON THE
LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BURLINGTON VT
957 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS/WX THROUGH MIDNIGHT/100 AM OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. CAM MODELS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND OUR LOCALLY RUN BTV
6KM WRF MODEL SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED CORES, AS WAS THE CASE AT KOGS IN THE PAST HOUR. WHILE
PBL IS IN THE PROCESS OF STABILIZING, STILL SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH
11 PM OR SO, GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OR SO. SUCH WAS
THE CASE IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH A PEAK GUST TO 32 KTS AN HOUR OR SO AGO. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VARIABLE/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND
PATCHY BR/FG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH...THOUGH THINK PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS. A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE THOUGH LOOKS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AT THIS
POINT...AS IT IS LACKING DEEP MID LEVEL MOISTURE. 12Z MODEL RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE AND HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEVELOPING 1 TO 2 STD BELOW NORMAL HEIGHT TROF ACROSS
THE NE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST. THIS WILL
CREATE AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW DEEP CLOSED 7H/5H CIRCULATION LIFTING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE SFC LOW
PRES TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TWD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG RRQ OF 100 KNOT JET...GOOD
ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 85H JET OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...WILL CREATE STRONG LIFT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM 00Z SUNDAY
INTO 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL JET...SOME GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.75" ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFT...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND PARTS OF THE NE KINGDOM.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
LEFTOVER DEEP 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT THE HIGHER QPF FIELDS TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE DACKS/SLV INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT. ANOTHER 0.50 TO 1.0
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL CAUSE MANY STREAMS
TO RISE NEAR BANKFUL BY MONDAY. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE NEXT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
IMPACT OUR CWA LATE TUES INTO WEDS. LATEST TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THIS
SYSTEM DOWN BY 6 TO 10 HOURS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON FROPA TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE M/U 50S IN THE MTNS ON
SUNDAY AND L/M 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
KPBG/KBTV....WHILE A LESS LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. SOME BR/FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 08Z- 11Z
THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND RETURN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AFTER 16Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
FROM 18Z THURS THRU 18Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RUTLAND ON
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF
TURBULENCE/SHEAR EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGHER TRRN. LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
956 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...
A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO POP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... WHERE MLCAPE IS STILL IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH IS LOW. DCAPE ALSO REMAINS VERY
HIGH...UPWARDS OF 1200 J/KG...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
IS STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN
RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RAP SHOWS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...BUT
THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LOW... HOWEVER. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND A FEW
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD A LITTLE...IT WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA AND RETREAT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN OPEN UP
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO CONVECTION WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z BUT MORE PROMINENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
FLOW BACK NORTHWARD. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS WITH WEAK HELICITY AT LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS UP TO 6 KM DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PW
APPROACHING 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING
THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW THAT COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...INDICATING THAT
HAIL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. INVERTED V SIGNATURES AND A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z SUGGEST THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH. IN
ADDITION...WHILE MOST OF THE JET SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...A STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE VA BORDER
AFTER 00Z WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT TO ANY PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION AND
INCREASE HELICITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO BUT MITIGATING THIS THREAT IS THE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
WILL SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY AFT/EVE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO BE STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NC FRIDAY WILL GET ABSORBED
BY THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES NE
FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL NY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILDING/ADVECTING IN BEHIND
IT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE
AFT/EVE HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES: FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAYS...HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MID 80S...BEFORE REBOUNDING
BACK IN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BEHAVE
SIMILARLY...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
FRIDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING AS NAM PROJECTED MLCAPE IS
AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 30KTS...NOT
SHABBY FOR LATE JUNE (THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...CAPE IN THE 1500-
2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE). THIS SUGGEST
A CHANCE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 808 PM WEDNESDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY REMAINS NEAR THE
SC BORDER TONIGHT. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KRWI...
KFAY... AND POSSIBLY KRDU THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD BRING
THE THREAT OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT ANY AFFECTED
SITES.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...RAH/WSS
AVIATION...30/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE POPS THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS FOCUS HAS BEEN
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND VARIOUS CAMS
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION FROM WV/VA WILL NOT ENTER E NC UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HAVE CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN TIER
OF THE FA. LOWS VERY WARM AND MUGGY...MID/UPR 70S INLAND TO 80-82
COAST. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 PM TUE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA
HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND.
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-110 THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT
MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF
AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 03-08Z TONIGHT...THOUGH
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS
OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS 75-80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE CWA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST WED AFTERNOON...WITH STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT. THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SEABREEZE...LIKELY BEING PINNED ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH...WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE FOR WED AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED STRONG
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN COUPLED
WITH CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE OF A NLY
SFC FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 17-19C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WARMEST IN THE S/SW
COUNTIES. COULD SEE BRIEF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE AREAS
WED AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BISECT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MHX CWA WED NIGHT AND WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HELD ON TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER, BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WILL STILL LIKELY SEE
SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD, LOW/MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR ACROSS THE CWA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF/ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF
HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS IN
THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
COULD BRING VCTS/VCSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD IN THE TAFS
AS HI- RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE BRIEF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF A KINSTON TO CAPE HATTERAS LINE. WILL NOT ADD VCTS IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE STORMS...BUT BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER ARE KISO/KOAJ/KEWN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS SHIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS 4-6FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON...MAKING
WIND DIRECTIONS CHALLENGING. WSW WINDS WILL START OFF WED...THEN
VEERING NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING NORTHERLY 5-15KT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SW AHEAD OF IT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WELL
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY LATE,
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MAY SEE A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY, CREATING A COMPLEX WINDS/SEAS FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL FEATURE. MAY SEE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH SUNDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT EAST
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 6
FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN
WAVEWATCH APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER
THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PER NSSL WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING
IN BTWN 03-08Z TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE
NC. AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS 75-80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE CWA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST WED AFTERNOON...WITH STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT. THE FRONT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE...LIKELY BEING PINNED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH...WILL LIKELY BE A
FOCUS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE FOR WED
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MARGINAL
SHEAR...ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AN ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN COUPLED
WITH CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE OF A NLY
SFC FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 17-19C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WARMEST IN THE S/SW
COUNTIES. COULD SEE BRIEF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE AREAS
WED AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BISECT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MHX CWA WED NIGHT AND WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HELD ON TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER, BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WILL STILL LIKELY SEE
SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD, LOW/MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR ACROSS THE CWA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF/ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF
HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS IN
THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER EASTERN NC FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROUGH INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST COULD BRING VCTS/VCSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD IN
THE TAFS AS HI- RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAIN WEAKENING AS ITS
APPROACHING OUR AREA. PLUS...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS
EARLY MORNING (APPROX. 10Z) AND THEREFORE ADDED 5SM FOR OUR INLAND
TAF SITES (PGV/ISO). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 4KFT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS SHIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS 4-6FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON...MAKING
WIND DIRECTIONS CHALLENGING. WSW WINDS WILL START OFF WED...THEN
VEERING NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING NORTHERLY 5-15KT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SW AHEAD OF IT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WELL
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY LATE,
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MAY SEE A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY, CREATING A COMPLEX WINDS/SEAS FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL FEATURE. MAY SEE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH SUNDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT EAST
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 6
FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN
WAVEWATCH APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH IS
STARTING TO FIRE SOME SHOWERS OFF AS OF LAST HOUR. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT CONDITIONS HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED FROM HIGHWAY 1 EASTWARD. FOR RIGHT NOW THE
VERIFICATION FOR THIS ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH MOST SITES IN THE
ADVISORY SEEING MULTIPLE HOURS OF 105-109 DEGREE HEAT INDICES WITH
SOME JUST TOUCHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH RDU AND SOUTHERN PINES JUST TOUCHING IT BUT YET TO BE
DETERMINED IF IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY POSSIBLE IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM. ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OUT UNTIL 7 PM WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED IN THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON
THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY 5.5-6 DEG/KM AT THIS TIME. DESPITE
THAT...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BROUGHT DCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND
1200 J/KG AND SO SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THESE CELLS. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER...SOME 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
AREA ARE NON-EXISTENT HOWEVER AND NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE NW AFTER 00Z. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF
RALEIGH UNTIL ABOUT 7Z OR SO BEFORE DYING OUT. THE RAP MODEL AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX TRAVELING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING A CATALYST FOR
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH AND DIMINISHES
AFTER 6Z AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA...PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAYETTEVILLE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS ARE
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WHICH CORRELATES
WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR OUR AREA WITH A 5% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS THE ONLY THREAT TO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THERE WONT BE TOO MUCH
MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SO
IT WILL STILL BE HOT BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HIGHEST TEMPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL LEAD TO APPARENT
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 100S
IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE NO HEAT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SIGNIFY THE VERY BEGINNING OF
WHAT WILL BE A CHANGE IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH OR MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH THE EXACT BOUNDARY DETERMINED BY THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER BUT A FAIRLY DRY
DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THAT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE U.S. AND ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH...TO MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST. INITIALLY...THE
TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED ALMOST WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
LAST OF THE HOT DAYS...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE SW-NE ORIENTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE WITH
CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
PEAKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DECREASING THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE...HOWEVER IT IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERAL RIDGING AND NE FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 2
WEEKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ON SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY KRDU AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THIS TIME SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY MVFR.
OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONCLUDES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH IS
STARTING TO FIRE SOME SHOWERS OFF AS OF LAST HOUR. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT CONDITIONS HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED FROM HIGHWAY 1 EASTWARD. FOR RIGHT NOW THE
VERIFICATION FOR THIS ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH MOST SITES IN THE
ADVISORY SEEING MULTIPLE HOURS OF 105-109 DEGREE HEAT INDICES WITH
SOME JUST TOUCHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH RDU AND SOUTHERN PINES JUST TOUCHING IT BUT YET TO BE
DETERMINED IF IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY POSSIBLE IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM. ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OUT UNTIL 7 PM WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED IN THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON
THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY 5.5-6 DEG/KM AT THIS TIME. DESPITE
THAT...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BROUGHT DCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND
1200 J/KG AND SO SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THESE CELLS. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER...SOME 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
AREA ARE NON-EXISTENT HOWEVER AND NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE NW AFTER 00Z. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF
RALEIGH UNTIL ABOUT 7Z OR SO BEFORE DYING OUT. THE RAP MODEL AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX TRAVELING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING A CATALYST FOR
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH AND DIMINISHES
AFTER 6Z AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA...PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAYETTEVILLE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS ARE
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WHICH CORRELATES
WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR OUR AREA WITH A 5% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS THE ONLY THREAT TO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THERE WONT BE TOO MUCH
MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SO
IT WILL STILL BE HOT BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HIGHEST TEMPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL LEAD TO APPARENT
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 100S
IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE NO HEAT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SIGNIFY THE VERY BEGINNING OF
WHAT WILL BE A CHANGE IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH OR MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH THE EXACT BOUNDARY DETERMINED BY THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER BUT A FAIRLY DRY
DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY KRDU AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THIS TIME SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY MVFR.
OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONCLUDES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR UPPER 90S TODAY WITH A FEW
SPOTS TOUCHING THE HUNDRED DEGREE MARK. AS OF 1000 AM...MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S ALREADY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY IN
MOST SPOTS BUT WITH VERY PERSISTENT HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
LIKELY HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES...HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM FOR POINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 1. TO THE EAST
OF HERE...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND THUS THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHICH
WE WILL MONITOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
-ELLIS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THUS... CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S. -77
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY KRDU AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THIS TIME SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY MVFR.
OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONCLUDES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOME
STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY...WITH
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING
INLAND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ADV CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL
WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 00-06Z
TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REINTRODUCED 20-30%
POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST NORTHEAST AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING...WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.25
INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MORE RAIN-
COOLED AIR.
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER EASTERN NC FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROUGH INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST COULD BRING VCTS/VCSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD IN
THE TAFS AS HI- RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAIN WEAKENING AS ITS
APPROACHING OUR AREA. PLUS...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS
EARLY MORNING (APPROX. 10Z) AND THEREFORE ADDED 5SM FOR OUR INLAND
TAF SITES (PGV/ISO). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 4KFT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE FREQUENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. UPDATED TO ADD
SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS. SCA UP FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOME GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH A PERSISTENT LOW INLAND AND
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. PER LATEST WAVE MODELS...SEAS BUILDS TO 6
FEET OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1221 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOME
STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY...WITH
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING
INLAND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ADV CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL
WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 00-06Z
TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REINTRODUCED 20-30%
POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST NORTHEAST AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING...WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.25
INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MORE RAIN-
COOLED AIR.
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...PATCHY MVFR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND COULD SEE
PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD EARLY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT SO ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE FREQUENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. UPDATED TO ADD
SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS. SCA UP FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOME GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH A PERSISTENT LOW INLAND AND
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. PER LATEST WAVE MODELS...SEAS BUILDS TO 6
FEET OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR UPPER 90S TODAY WITH A FEW
SPOTS TOUCHING THE HUNDRED DEGREE MARK. AS OF 1000 AM...MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S ALREADY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY IN
MOST SPOTS BUT WITH VERY PERSISTENT HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
LIKELY HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES...HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM FOR POINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 1. TO THE EAST
OF HERE...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND THUS THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHICH
WE WILL MONITOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
-ELLIS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THUS... CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S. -77
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC
LATE TONIGHT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERNLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE
FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND (POSSIBLY SINKING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY). SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOME
STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY...WITH
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING
INLAND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ADV CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL
WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 00-06Z
TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REINTRODUCED 20-30%
POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST NORTHEAST AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING...WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.25
INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MORE RAIN-
COOLED AIR.
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...PATCHY MVFR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND COULD SEE
PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD EARLY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT SO ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE FREQUENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SCA UP FOR
PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOME GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH A PERSISTENT LOW INLAND AND
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. PER LATEST WAVE MODELS...SEAS BUILDS TO 6
FEET OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THUS... CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC
LATE TONIGHT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERNLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE
FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND (POSSIBLY SINKING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY). SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
322 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES. THUS... CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY
RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS
OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES. THUS... CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
COMING SHORTLY
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY
RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS
OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM MONDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY 925-850 MB DEWPOINTS ~14C (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND AS ONE MIGHT INFER GIVEN WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NO SIGNIFICANT CAP) AND A LACK OF DIURNAL CU. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GREATER
THAN IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL NC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AN MCV WAS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST KY AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ESE
INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY ~00Z...SOUTHEASTWARD TO BOONE NC BY ~03Z...
SSE/SOUTHWARD TO MORGANTON BY ~06Z AND CHARLOTTE BY ~09Z. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST NC
AFTER 00Z...WITH PROPAGATION INTO THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
~03Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE 12Z CAMS SUPPORT SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND A
DRIER/LESS SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...ASSUMING NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE INTO THE TRIAD...DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS
AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION
(AT BEST). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 325-326 DM OVER THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AOA 1440 METERS OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...AT LEAST NOT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...
WHERE AOA 70 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON; AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT...LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED ONE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED...FORCING
AT THIS LATITUDE WILL NEED TO COME FROM OUTFLOW AND/OR AN MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...NEITHER OF WHICH CAN BE FORECAST WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. POP WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 748 PM MONDAY...
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... AND IN THE VICINITY
OF KFAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE (~20 PERCENT) UNTIL A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH INTO VA-NC ON WED AND SUPPORTS A BETTER CHANCE (30-50
PERCENT) AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...30/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM MONDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY 925-850 MB DEWPOINTS ~14C (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND AS ONE MIGHT INFER GIVEN WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NO SIGNIFICANT CAP) AND A LACK OF DIURNAL CU. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GREATER
THAN IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL NC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AN MCV WAS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST KY AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ESE
INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY ~00Z...SOUTHEASTWARD TO BOONE NC BY ~03Z...
SSE/SOUTHWARD TO MORGANTON BY ~06Z AND CHARLOTTE BY ~09Z. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST NC
AFTER 00Z...WITH PROPAGATION INTO THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
~03Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE 12Z CAMS SUPPORT SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND A
DRIER/LESS SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...ASSUMING NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE INTO THE TRIAD...DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS
AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION
(AT BEST). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 325-326 DM OVER THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AOA 1440 METERS OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...AT LEAST NOT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...
WHERE AOA 70 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON; AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT...LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED ONE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED...FORCING
AT THIS LATITUDE WILL NEED TO COME FROM OUTFLOW AND/OR AN MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...NEITHER OF WHICH CAN BE FORECAST WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. POP WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NE CANADA. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH... STALLING OUT AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER BY LATE WED
AFT/EVE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTH TO
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A LOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A
S/W OR TWO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK... PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE
IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID 90S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE INDICATION IN THE MODELS OF
A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... DECREASING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD: THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY
RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS
OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/22 100 1981
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
GSO RECORDS
06/22 100 1914
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/22 101 1990
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING PRODUCED FUNNEL CLOUDS EARLIER
AND NOW LARGE HAIL. LEFT MOVER HAS BEEN A THORN THE LAST HOUR OR
SO NEAR BEULAH AND HAZEN WHERE THE LARGE HAIL WAS PRODUCED WITHIN
THE PAST HALF HOUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF
SUNDOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD NOW THROUGH
06Z. A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM SOUTHEAST YET THIS
EVENING AS WELL. WENT DRY AND MAINTAINED FOG OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY WITH CHANCES DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC...AND A CONSENSUS OF THE 20-22
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS...DECREASED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ADDED A
MENTION OF FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TOMORROW.
QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE 12 UTC MODEL CYCLE GREATLY DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...MOVES INTO
THE DAKOTAS. IN FACT...THE 12 UTC NAM/GEM REGIONAL ARE THE TWO
MOST INSISTENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE...AND THEY DO NOT
INITIATE UNTIL AFTER NOON TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ADJUST THE
BROADBRUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THERE
IS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A NICE
WARMING TREND.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THURSDAY
EVENING CONTINUES TO SEE MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS AND CAPE VALUES ~1-1.5
KJ/KG. THIS WILL BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THAT SHOULD BE
OVER BY SUNDOWN AND THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WAA INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
AS ANY RIDGE RIDER WAVE/EMBEDDED IMPULSE COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ANY GIVEN DAY. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
ISOLATED/LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANY REMAINING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO FADE WITH SUNSET. FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS TO ANY
ONE TERMINAL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...INTRODUCED MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO MOST TERMINALS AFTER 08 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC...AND A CONSENSUS OF THE 20-22
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS...DECREASED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ADDED A
MENTION OF FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TOMORROW.
QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE 12 UTC MODEL CYCLE GREATLY DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...MOVES INTO
THE DAKOTAS. IN FACT...THE 12 UTC NAM/GEM REGIONAL ARE THE TWO
MOST INSISTENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE...AND THEY DO NOT
INITIATE UNTIL AFTER NOON TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ADJUST THE
BROADBRUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THERE
IS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A NICE
WARMING TREND.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THURSDAY
EVENING CONTINUES TO SEE MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS AND CAPE VALUES ~1-1.5
KJ/KG. THIS WILL BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THAT SHOULD BE
OVER BY SUNDOWN AND THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WAA INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
AS ANY RIDGE RIDER WAVE/EMBEDDED IMPULSE COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ANY GIVEN DAY. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
ISOLATED/LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANY REMAINING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO FADE WITH SUNSET. FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS TO ANY
ONE TERMINAL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...INTRODUCED MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO MOST TERMINALS AFTER 08 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
549 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL USE A BLEND OF
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR SKY COVER AND POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNSET. THE 22 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 KTS...WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...400
J/KG OF HAIL CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
GREATER STORM INTENSITY. MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS HAVE ALSO
BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE AT TIMES SUPERCELLUR
NATURE OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SFC TROUGH
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND NORTH...THEN SPREADING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...MORE SO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PORTRAY 800-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
LATEST HRRR ALONG WITH THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BULK
SHEAR INDICATE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVER THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
ND). WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK OUT OF THE STATE.
A TRANSITION FROM QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD
AGREEMENT ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
ISOLD/SCT -TSRA POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE REGION.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SFC TROUGH
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND NORTH...THEN SPREADING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...MORE SO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PORTRAY 800-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
LATEST HRRR ALONG WITH THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BULK
SHEAR INDICATE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVER THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
ND). WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK OUT OF THE STATE.
A TRANSITION FROM QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD
AGREEMENT ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
ISOLD/SCT -TSRA POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE REGION.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
IN SPACE WEATHER NEWS... A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AURORA BOREALLIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND
00 UTC NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...AS A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE POTENTIAL STRONG NORTHERN LIGHTS SHOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD COVERING MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERTICAL EXTENT APPEARS LIMITED
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 6000FT. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH AND HENCE LIMIT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MINIMAL TO NIL. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL WANE NEAR SUNSET WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TUESDAY...REACHING NORTHWEST MONTANA/SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE INCREASES TO 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AT 50KT TO 60KT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMER...BETWEEN 77F AND 82F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE CURRENT SUITE OF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER DAYS 1-3 HAS ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE
STATE...AS A RESULT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1042 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OHIO BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS
OVERHEAD IS RATHER DRY TO START OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PENNSYLVANIA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. CONVECTION IS
BLOSSOMING OVER IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE THETA-E RIDGE.
THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
NW OHIO AS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS THE ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE THIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AND SPREAD INTO
THE AERA TOWARDS MORNING. LEADING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE VIRGA AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY BUT DO EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.
REMOVED THE THUNDER WORDING FROM THE MORNING AS WE MOISTEN THE LOW
LEVELS AND DID BACK OFF ON POPS IN THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGHEST POPS AND MOST LIKELY COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW EXHIBITED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE 18Z
SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. LOOKS LIKE OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAS A CHANCE OF APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK BUT THINK IT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH MUCH FARTHER NORTH
SO LOWERED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FROM TOLEDO TO AKRON GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL END AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT IN
BRINGING ABOUT A TENTH OF INCH OF QPF INTO THE TOL AREA BY 12Z AS
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE INCREASES
TOWARD MORNING. ALL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS PRODUCE SIMILAR QPF
AND PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO NW OHIO. ELSEWHERE FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET WITH JUST THICKENING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
MORNING MAINLY WEST OF I-71. HAVE USED MAV MEX GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN TWO ROUNDS. ONE ON THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR THURSDAY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHILE THE LARGE SCALE MODELS HAVE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. SPC HAS LIKELY MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FARTHER
NORTH TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW AND HAS
NOW INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK. WITH
LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE VERY AWARE OF ANY ROTATING STORMS. FARTHER NORTH MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET AS WELL AS IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ISENTROPIC
SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE MOD TO STRONG UPWARD MOTION FOR INCREASING
HUMID AIR. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ON ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED SOIL. WE MAY HAVE MORE WATER/FLOOD ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WITH THE REGION MORE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WILL RAISE MAX
TEMPERATURES AS DEPICTED BY THE DOWNSCALED NAM.
THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE ATTENDANT
TRAILING FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL ATTEMPT TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK A RATHER
STRONG/DEEP SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MORE RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY. GFSENS BRINGS H8 TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW 10C. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL...LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA. WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL THAT SYSTEM FULLY DEPARTS. MONDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY...RE-ENFORCING THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THIS IS LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH STRONG AND
SLOWER WEEKEND SYSTEM THIS IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR
WEATHER WITH CURRENT TIMING OF ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
BY LATE THU. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
TOL AND FDY TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD REACH CLE AROUND
9 TO 10 AM AND FINALLY YNG AND MAYBE ERI ABOUT MIDDAY. THE RAP MODEL
AND NOW THE HRRR ARE SHOWING A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION SO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS PRESENT. AREAS OF
MVFR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER A FEW HOURS OF RAIN AS THE LOWER
LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
12 KNOTS THRU THU.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI IN SHRA THEN NON
VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA THE REST OF FRI. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER AND A QUIET LAKE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT WEATHER
QUITE UNSETTLED. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS OHIO ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON THE LAKE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD
CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY.
STILL STRONG BUT MORE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE A CERTAINTY. WE
ARE TALKING 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR A BIG CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND THEN MEANDER
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN A LATE EVENING UPDATE...
ONE 500 MB WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED ON THE RAP MODEL MOVING EAST THRU CENTRAL WV
AT 01Z THIS EVENING TOWARD CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS BETWEEN EKN AND BKW.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN IN ITS WAKE...BEFORE NEXT VORT MAX APPROACHES
SE OHIO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
WILL STILL TRY TO FORM THE THICKER FOG CKB-CRW-EKN ON DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELD VALLEYS...THOUGH DURATION ONLY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS.
STILL IMPRESSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UP THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THE EXISTING/OLDER
CONVECTION THAT WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY.
ANY NEW COMPLEX THAT FORMS AFTER 18Z SHOULD MOVE AT LEAST AT 40 KNOTS.
SO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DESPITE SPEED...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WETTER THAN NORMAL
LATE JUNE SOIL CONDITIONS THAT EXIST N OF HTS-CRW-SUMMERSVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF AN MCS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...THE FRONT
ITSELF LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE MCS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SOUTHERN AREAS VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MCS
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT STALLING IN THE FAR SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE POPS THERE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN STRONG
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND TIME FRAME...WILL NOT JUMP ON ANY
WATCHES YET...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.
THE FRONT WILL START BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME ACROSS
SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...BUT QUITE HUMID. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN COOLER AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STILL MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ALSO EXITING...BUT IT WILL FEEL ON
THE COOL SIDE. THE MODELS HAVE YET ANOTHER FRONT COMING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...THIS
PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL DOWNPLAY THE FOG A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING
HTS AND PKB...BUT CONTINUE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF IFR IN CKB-CRW ON
EAST INTO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF WV. HAVE FOG FORMING FIRST IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE KI16 AND KEKN BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z.
MID DECK CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME 4 TO 5
THSD FT CLOUDS FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WITH WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX RIDING ESE ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT. COULD NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER BY 10Z IN THE
MID OHIO VALLEY VCNTY PKB.
IMPRESSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL 925 TO 850 MB FEED UP THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION THURSDAY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. SO
STRONGEST COMPLEXES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOVING
ESE AT LEAST AT 40 KNOTS. SO STRONG WIND GUSTS SEEM A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
COULD EASILY VARY EITHER WAY...FASTER OR SLOWER.
.AFTER 00ZZ FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY. ALSO IFR
IN RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG IN THE WAKE OF THAT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IFR AGAIN IN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
948 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOMORROW AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK ECHOES FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. A
SHORTWAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA/ ILLINOIS BORDER AND
CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED EAST THIS
EVENING INTO ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE LEFTOVERS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 1
AND 4 AM THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THERE MIGHT NOT
BE MUCH LEFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA. LATEST KILN SOUNDING DOES SHOW
WE HAVE STARTED TO SATURATE BUT THERE STILL REMAINS DRY AIR IN THE
700 TO 900 MB LAYER. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER TO MID 60S STILL LOOKS ON TARGET AS
THICKER CLOUDS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MOVE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA. AFTER WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
13 - 15Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SUITE
OF HIGH RES RUNS. STILL AM EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE ABLE TO
RECHARGE ENOUGH TO GET LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF GFS/
NAM SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1900/ 2500 J/KG RESPECTIVELY WITH
AMPLE SHEAR VALUES (40 TO 50 KTS OF 0 - 6 KM SHEAR). DUE TO THE
MENTIONED ABOVE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION ->
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. SIGNALS FROM RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z WHICH LINES UP
WITH AN ARW SOLUTION. SO STRONGER STORMS MAY SLIDE IN SOUTH OF
DAYTON AND HEAD MORE TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
AS REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN.
IF SOMETHING ALONG THESE LINES OCCURS THEN WOULD EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS.
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
AREA STORMS WILL RE-FIRE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THAT INSTABILITY RELOADS AS EXPECTED...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS IN
PLAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS IT HEADS
SOUTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING.
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 1.75 INCHES WITH THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER CLOSER TO 4 KM DEEP. SO THIS COULD BE ANOTHER HIGHLY
EFFICIENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF
OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION. SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COULD PUSH 90 WHILE I-70 NORTHWARDS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE
TO NEAR 80. THEREAFTER EXPECT A NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE WITH WARM
LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FA AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EAST AND
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE FA. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S EXPECTED.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO THE
FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA/ ILLINOIS BORDER CAUSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 8 - 10Z. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MORE LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA FROM THIS SO HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR DAYTON. OTHER
SITES MIGHT NEED A VCSH ADDED TO THEM (ESP CMH/ LCK) IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE. STILL... THIS FIRST PATCH OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS AT
THIS TIME BRINGING A STRONGER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IT. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN. THE
TIMING ON THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN THE 13 TO 16Z TIME FRAME NOW. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ROUND
BUT STILL WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
THIRD BATCH OF PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME TO GET GOING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE MORNING PRECIP. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG BY DINNER WITH K INDEX
VALUES NEARING 40. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING AND POSITION OF THE LINE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KCVG AND KLUK APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF THE HAVING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH TAF SITES TOWARDS THE NORTH HAVING
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
704 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OHIO BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAISED
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
THIN SOME LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARRIVES.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW EXHIBITED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE 18Z
SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. LOOKS LIKE OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAS A CHANCE OF APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK BUT THINK IT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH MUCH FARTHER NORTH
SO LOWERED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FROM TOLEDO TO AKRON GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL END AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT IN
BRINGING ABOUT A TENTH OF INCH OF QPF INTO THE TOL AREA BY 12Z AS
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE INCREASES
TOWARD MORNING. ALL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS PRODUCE SIMILAR QPF
AND PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO NW OHIO. ELSEWHERE FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET WITH JUST THICKENING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
MORNING MAINLY WEST OF I-71. HAVE USED MAV MEX GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN TWO ROUNDS. ONE ON THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR THURSDAY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHILE THE LARGE SCALE MODELS HAVE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. SPC HAS LIKELY MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FARTHER
NORTH TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW AND HAS
NOW INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK. WITH
LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE VERY AWARE OF ANY ROTATING STORMS. FARTHER NORTH MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET AS WELL AS IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ISENTROPIC
SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE MOD TO STRONG UPWARD MOTION FOR INCREASING
HUMID AIR. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ON ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED SOIL. WE MAY HAVE MORE WATER/FLOOD ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WITH THE REGION MORE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WILL RAISE MAX
TEMPERATURES AS DEPICTED BY THE DOWNSCALED NAM.
THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE ATTENDANT
TRAILING FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL ATTEMPT TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK A RATHER
STRONG/DEEP SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MORE RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. THE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY. GFSENS BRINGS H8 TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW 10C. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL...LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA. WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL THAT SYSTEM FULLY DEPARTS. MONDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY...RE-ENFORCING THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THIS IS LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH STRONG AND
SLOWER WEEKEND SYSTEM THIS IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR
WEATHER WITH CURRENT TIMING OF ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
BY LATE THU. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
TOL AND FDY TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD REACH CLE AROUND
9 TO 10 AM AND FINALLY YNG AND MAYBE ERI ABOUT MIDDAY. THE RAP MODEL
AND NOW THE HRRR ARE SHOWING A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION SO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS PRESENT. AREAS OF
MVFR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER A FEW HOURS OF RAIN AS THE LOWER
LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER
12 KNOTS THRU THU.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI IN SHRA THEN NON
VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA THE REST OF FRI. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER AND A QUIET LAKE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT WEATHER
QUITE UNSETTLED. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS OHIO ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON THE LAKE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD
CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY.
STILL STRONG BUT MORE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE A CERTAINTY. WE
ARE TALKING 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR A BIG CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
...2117Z UPDATE...
REMOVED ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM WW #342...ONLY
FULTON/FRANKLIN/ADAMS/YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES REMAIN UNTIL 700
PM.
DEEP CONVECTION EXITING SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
21Z WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO MY SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME TRAINERS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER BY 23Z. VFR CONDS
RETURNING NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS IN EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG WED MORNING AT KBFD AND
KJST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
...2050Z UPDATE...
REMOVED ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM WW #342...WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN TO CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY LINE.
DEEP CONVECTION EXITING SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
21Z WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO MY SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME TRAINERS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
...2030Z UPDATE...
REMOVED NORTHERN THIRD OF WW #342...WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH
OF A CLEARFIELD TO CENTRE TO SNYDER TO COLUMBIA COUNTY LINE.
MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST
RISK/THREAT FOR SEVERE T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
PA /SOUTH OF I-80/ THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE THRU 22-23Z ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA WHERE A VERY MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/
CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY.
WE MAY CONSIDER TALKING WITH SPC ABOUT TRIMMING BACK THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN SVR TSTM WATCH #342.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AT 18Z
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GRT
LKS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
MAINLY WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST BUT AT A LOWER PROBABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
18Z RADAR TRENDS...MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK/THREAT FOR SEVERE T-STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA /SOUTH OF I-80/ THIS AFTN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE
THRU 22-23Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WHERE A VERY MOIST BLYR /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVELY.
WE MAY CONSIDER TALKING WITH SPC ABOUT TRIMMING BACK THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN SVR TSTM WATCH #342.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AT 18Z
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GRT
LKS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
MAINLY WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST BUT AT A LOWER PROBABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY
WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS. THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST THU AND FRIDAY.
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEEN UPDATING TAFS FOR LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
WILL BE DOING THE SAME FOR THE 15Z TAF PACKAGE.
STORMS MOVING EAST AT FAST CLIP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BY
LATE AFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
THU-SAT...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS. THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST THU AND FRIDAY.
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA. COMBINATION OF
FAST MOVING STORMS AND LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE.
EXPECT LINE TO CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MODELS
HAVE SOUTHERN AREAS GETTING STORMS THIS AFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
FRI-SAT...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONGTERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN KY...JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
VERY WARM AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING ACROSS
THE REGION...SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO SOMETIMES UPPER 70S. THIS IS CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
TO COVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED
YET. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND SBCAPES AROUND 5000 J/KG THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z OR SO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM
THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM COULD
OCCUR ANYWHERE BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ON THURSDAY BUT STILL
HOT AND HUMID. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. STILL VERY
WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 28C ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE GULF WITH BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLE DEEP UPPER TROF.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-CROCKETT-DYER-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATED TO REMOVE TH HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE HEAT IS IN
STORE FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND HAZE HAS PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING AS HIGH AS THEY COULD HAVE. FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT
JOB WITH COMPLEX. TO THE WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS BUILDING. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 105 AT
JONESBORO AND WEST MEMPHIS.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WILL PUSH EAST
AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THEN START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID PERIOD. THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS
DELTA INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
TEMPS MAY HIT THE UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S IN SOME PLACES SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS AFTER
23/15Z THEN DECREASE TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 24/01Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE... /SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADDED TO WEST TONIGHT/
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS AND THE LATEST NAM SHOW A HIGH PWAT AREA OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WITH A FEW CELLS FORMING OVER KINNEY
AND UVALDE COUNTIES TO REINFORCE THIS SCENARIO....WILL GO AHEAD
AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. A
SMALL AREA OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS WAS SLIPPED INTO THE UPDATE FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING N OF AUS AS
WELL AS ALONG RIO GRANDE BETWEEN LRD-DRT. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY TAKE LONGER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
04Z...BETWEEN SAT-DRT AND EXPAND INTO SAT/SSF AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z...INTO DRT AROUND 10Z...AND AUS AROUND 11Z. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED IN STRATUS OVER HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS SAT/SSF...
WITH MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF I-35 AT AUS AND ALONG RIO GRANDE AT
DRT. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-35
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS I35. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. CLOUDY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN UNUSUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PW IS FORECAST TO BE 2.0-2.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST DIGGING A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 73 91 73 91 / 20 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 71 90 73 90 / 20 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 91 / 20 10 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 72 91 / 10 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 93 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 91 73 91 / 10 10 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 89 72 91 / 20 10 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 73 90 / 20 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 73 90 74 90 / 30 10 30 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 90 74 90 / 20 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 73 91 / 20 10 20 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND RIO GRANDE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS JUST MOVING INTO DRT. HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 TERMINALS TO 07Z.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO IFR BY 09Z FOR ALL TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 18Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE MOIST CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE AND DAY TIME HEATING. HAVE
COVERED THIS WITH VCSH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE I-35
TERMINALS. CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER AT DRT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS SO VCSH IS IN THE TAF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
AVIATION...
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER MEXICO AND HAVE
VCSH FOR KDRT THROUGH THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VCSH MENTIONED AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF ONLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE BEST FORCING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR
CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AS BR AND
IFR/MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CIGS RISE AS BR DISSIPATES
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO
11 KTS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUTFLOWS
FROM SHRA/TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THERE IS NOT MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE REST
OF THE CWA REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY MUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HRRR IS STILL FORECASTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE 30 POPS THIS EVENING
CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER LIFT IN THIS PART
OF THE CWA.
FOR TOMORROW...THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MIX OUT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY...BUT OUR
WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE A NON-PLAYER WEATHER WISE. THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REMAIN OPENED UP WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
SHIFTING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THERE WILL BE A
BOUNDARY PRESENT AND DECENT MOISTURE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS BECAUSE OF MANY UNKNOWNS ON THE MESOSCALE BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 73 90 74 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 74 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 88 73 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 75 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 74 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 88 74 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 74 89 / 20 10 20 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 89 75 89 / 20 10 30 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 88 75 89 / 20 10 20 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 89 75 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE IN NUMBER AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 540 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONVECTION GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS NRN VA/MD...SW TO SRN WV. NOT
SEEING ANYTHING SVR YET NEAR OUR AREA BUT STRONG. 21Z MESOANALYSIS
STILL DEPICTING MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS OUR CWA WITH BACKING
WINDS ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT WATCH STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP...SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING SE INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO LYH AREA BY 8 PM. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SE GIVEN LACK OF SUPPER CURRENTLY THERE AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTH AND NW TO
ACCOUNT FOR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.
MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER
EARLY ON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL PA SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL PA.
BY 02Z/10PM...GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORM AS TO THE
POSITIONING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO
WESTERLY FLOW LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...KEEPING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE RNK WRF ON THE OTHER HAND OFFERS A SOLUTION
OF GENEROUS COVERAGE NOT ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN
AREAS...BUT SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. OUR FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RNK WRF...BUT NOT AS
ROBUST OF COVERAGE AS THE RNK WRF IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. IF IT DOES...IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...CLOSEST
TO THE COLD FRONT. THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT
START UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.
THE DAY ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULE OUT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHT COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH.
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT...AND ITS
PROXIMITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS TRACK OF SHORT WAVES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AREA OF LIFT...AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
GFS IS REASONABLE WITH SURFACE FEATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LOW MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACK DOWN THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH
TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH DIGS ENOUGH THAT RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORT WAVE
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY 25 TO 30 KNOT EAST 850 MB
WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NCEP FAVORED THE GENERAL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM KY/OH/PA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CORES.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PREVAILING NW 850 MB WINDS
ALLOW FOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COINCIDENT TO THE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE EXPANSIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR COOLER CONDITIONS...BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE IN NUMBER AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN FORMING WITHIN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WHILE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP INTO STORMS AND MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD...THE REAL WEATHER
STORY IS LOOMING TO OUR NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST
CENTRAL PA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION
WAS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL PA. OTHER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY
AS CLOSE AS ISOLATED BETWEEN CHARLESTON WV AND HANCOCK MD. THIS
ORIENTATION OF PRECIPITATION WAS MATCHING FAIRLY WELL WITH GUIDANCE
OFFERED BY THE 17Z/1PM RUN OF THE HRRR...WITH THE 12Z/8AM RUN OF THE
RNK WRF NOT TOO UNLIKE IT AS WELL. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES WERE THE
POSITIONING AND COVERAGE OF THE LEE SIDE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE WRF IS TOO FAR WEST AND THE HRRR IS
TOO NUMEROUS.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARRIVE IN
OUR I-64 CORRIDOR AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH OUR REGION....REACHING A WYTHEVILLE TO ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG
TO BUCKINGHAM LINE AROUND 23Z/7PM. BY 02Z/10PM...GUIDANCE IS NOT
QUITE AS UNIFORM AS TO THE POSITIONING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE
HRRR GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO WESTERLY FLOW LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...KEEPING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE RNK WRF ON THE OTHER HAND OFFERS
A SOLUTION OF GENEROUS COVERAGE NOT ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN
AREAS...BUT SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. OUR FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RNK WRF...BUT NOT AS
ROBUST OF COVERAGE AS THE RNK WRF IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. IF IT DOES...IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...CLOSEST TO THE
COLD FRONT. THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT START
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARABLE
TO THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.
THE DAY ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULE OUT. THE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION OFFERS THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY ROANOKE NORTH TO COVINGTON AND POINTS EASTWARD AS THE REGION
OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THEIR ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHT COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH.
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT...AND ITS
PROXIMITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS TRACK OF SHORT WAVES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AREA OF LIFT...AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
GFS IS REASONABLE WITH SURFACE FEATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LOW MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACK DOWN THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH
TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH DIGS ENOUGH THAT RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORT WAVE
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY 25 TO 30 KNOT EAST 850 MB
WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NCEP FAVORED THE GENERAL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM KY/OH/PA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CORES.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PREVAILING NW 850 MB WINDS
ALLOW FOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COINCIDENT TO THE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE EXPANSIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR COOLER CONDITIONS...BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
STILL PPINE ON LOCAL KFCX 88D. HOWEVER...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY SHORTLY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN KY/WV IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
200 PM. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT THE SAME
TIME EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITHIN AN AXIS OF A LEE
SIDE TROUGH. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION MORE IN THE 5PM TO 6PM TIME
FRAME. HAVE RAMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 6PM
AND 9PM. AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...A
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
AGAIN ONCE ACTIVITY GETS EAST OF THE DANVILLE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST NEEDS NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS MOST PROBABLE STARTING AROUND THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. HOT CONDITIONS STILL ARE LIKELY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM KY/OH/PA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CORES.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PREVAILING NW 850 MB WINDS
ALLOW FOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COINCIDENT TO THE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE EXPANSIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR COOLER CONDITIONS...BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
STILL PPINE ON LOCAL KFCX 88D. HOWEVER...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY SHORTLY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN KY/WV IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
200 PM. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT THE SAME
TIME EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITHIN AN AXIS OF A LEE
SIDE TROUGH. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION MORE IN THE 5PM TO 6PM TIME
FRAME. HAVE RAMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 6PM
AND 9PM. AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...A
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
AGAIN ONCE ACTIVITY GETS EAST OF THE DANVILLE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST NEEDS NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS MOST PROBABLE STARTING AROUND THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. HOT CONDITIONS STILL ARE LIKELY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY ON...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB
AREA AROUND 19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CU BUILDUPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST
AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT
KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF CONVECTION AN HOUR OR
TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY MENTION AT THIS POINT WITH
SHOWERS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB.
MVFR SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INCLUDING
AREAS OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST NEEDS NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS MOST PROBABLE STARTING AROUND THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. HOT CONDITIONS STILL ARE LIKELY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY ON...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB
AREA AROUND 19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CU BUILDUPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST
AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT
KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF CONVECTION AN HOUR OR
TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY MENTION AT THIS POINT WITH
SHOWERS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB.
MVFR SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INCLUDING
AREAS OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY ON...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB
AREA AROUND 19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CU BUILDUPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST
AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT
KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF CONVECTION AN HOUR OR
TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY MENTION AT THIS POINT WITH
SHOWERS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB.
MVFR SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INCLUDING
AREAS OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING
TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. AN OUTFLOW AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARY AND SOLAR
HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.THE LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100
ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A REIDSVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO
BUCKINGHAM VIRGINIA LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION FOR
THE CURRENT RECORDS.
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
DECREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND BLENDED TOWARDS THE RNK WRFARW AND HRRR FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LATEST OBS AND CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO NORTH OF I-64. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE
PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DISSIPATED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT...THE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION OR
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 10PM-11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...CLOUDS WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TROUGH ROUGHLY 2-3AM TUESDAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...SO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA
IS POSSIBLE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE. READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY...THE FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST....OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...WITH THE
BEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS MAY
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 20 C IN THE WEST AND 24 C
IN THE EAST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT
INDICES WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 100 TO 102 RANGE ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A REIDSVILLE NC TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT REMAINS LINED UP FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION REMAIN CLOSE TO 590DM WITH A PIECE OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENT...SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EACH DAY AT THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NCEP FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
THURSDAY. SO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1247 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE PREFERRED RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. ALSO...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTED
A RESURGENCE OF MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. COULD SEE A MVFR CIG ALONG AND NEAR A KBLF-KLWB LINE.
ON TUESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
MID MORNING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB AREA OR PARTS WEST AROUND
19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE
AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY
SEE A LINE OF STORMS CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT
INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF
CONVECTION AN HOUR OR TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OF AREAS
OF FOG TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH
OF WI ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER CAN NOT DROP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING OVER SRN CWA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AS PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION GRAZE SRN WI. ALSO...PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION PASSING ACROSS SRN WI MAY ALSO SET OFF SHOWERS AND
ISOL STORMS. THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS MINIMAL IN THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...FOCUS OF SHOWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SOUTH OF TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO USE
VICINITY REMARK AS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN WI DURING THE LATE NIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER NRN
IA SO WL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST MVFR CLOUDS IN TAFS LATE
TNGT INTO THU MRNG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/... SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ESE THROUGH NORTHERN IL. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS... IF ANYTHING...
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
EVENING AS IT VEERS EAST. THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA OR SOUTH... ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM
FRONT. THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MANY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE INCREASING LLJ LATE THIS EVENING
PER THE HRRR AND THEN SLIDE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL.
KEPT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO
THE VICINITY OF THE NOSE OF THE LLJ... UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET... AND WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LESS THAN 500
J/KG CAPE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN TRAINING OVER AN AREA FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH SPC HAS NOT
TRIMMED SOUTHERN WI OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK YET THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD
SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER WITH
THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW... SO
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST. AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 80 EXCEPT NEAR THE
LAKE.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE CYCLONIC AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW OVER WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEAK...AND THERE WILL
BE LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IN THE MID-
LEVELS...WE WILL BE ON THE COOL AND DRY SIDE OF A FRONT EXTENDING
WEST FROM THE LOW THAT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE THANKS TO THE FRONT IN PLACE. GFS AND EURO DO
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHOSE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MEAGER ASCENT AND
MOISTURE.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL HAVE PASSED TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE...PLACING WISCONSIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE MID AND LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT...MAKING FOR A VERY NICE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WISCONSIN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN NNW FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROF STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A ROBUST
RIDGE/CLOSED HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS PASS ACROSS THE
STATE REINFORCING THE TROF OVER THE EAST. THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY IN THIS PERIOD. THE NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERN WI SHOULD GET CLIPPED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES OFF WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITHIN
A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
641 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITHIN THIS FLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TIED TO SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA WHILE THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MN/UPPER MI WAS
TIED MORE TO CONVERGENCE OF LAKE BREEZE FRONT. OUR AREA WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...HIGH AND DRY FOR NOW. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MCV ACROSS IA
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS THEN SHOW RETURN
850MB FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO...NORTHWARD NEAR I-80. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO
REGENERATE A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...POSSIBLE GRAZING OUR NORTHEAST IA COUNTIES. LATEST WRF
RUNS KEEP CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE COARSER DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION REACHING INTO NORTHEAST
IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN
FAYETTE/CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHER GRANT
COUNTY IN WI...TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. HIGHER CAPE AXIS STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE IN CASE
THE WARM FRONT/CAPE POOL SURGES FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
NOT MUCH WORKING FOR IT OTHER THAN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR TRIGGER. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
WRF MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR PUMPING DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF CUMULUS...BUT
ANY SHOWER/THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN WI/U.P. IN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ACROSS MN INTO IA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WILL STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY DOMINATED WITH DECENT CUMULUS FIELD WITH HIGHS
ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK IS DOMINATED WITH MUDDLED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY. AS A
RESULT...PLAN ON PERIODIC ON/OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER EXPECTED. THE STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS FORMING NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHERE THE 24.22Z
HRRR SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO IT WITH IT
GETTING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 20 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
WITH THIS ACTIVITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO SEE THE MID
LEVEL CEILING REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EVEN A VCSH AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
RIVERS ARE RECEDING. SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ALONG THE CEDAR
RIVER AT CHARLES CITY...BUT THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN U.S.. WHILE A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW RUNS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ONE IN SIOUX FALLS ALONG
WITH A WIDE AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS HELPING TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF ALTOSTRATUS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE SEEING ECHOES ON RADAR...AS
REFLECTED BY THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING WITH A 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
OF 40C. ONLY A VERY FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED SPRINKLES. MAIN SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS WAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AND WAS VERY SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH TODAY. THAT NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A
PERSISTENT COMPLEX OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO THE
KANSAS CITY AREA. SUNSHINE TODAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
10C HAS RESULTED IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH MIXING AND DRY AIR RESULTING IN READINGS
OF 45 TO 55F.
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HELPING TO PROVIDE THE
DRY CONDITIONS ONLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE SOME HIGHER BASED FRONTOGENESIS...YIELDING SOME
ALTOSTRATUS AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE MID 50S.
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE SHORT TERM IS FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN KANSAS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AT LEAST CONVECTION IF NOT AN MCS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT. CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD TAKE THIS MCS INTO NORTHERN MO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
HOLDING THE FRONT BACK. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE LIKE THE 23.12Z
GFS/NAM WANT TO KEEP MOVING THE FRONT NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EITHER PREVIOUS OR NEW CONVECTION INTO NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI. BELIEVE THIS IS GOING TO BE TOUGH AS CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITS DAYTIME MIXING...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HOLDS THE BOUNDARY
BACK. MORE LIKELY...WHEN NEW CONVECTION FIRES IT WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE HUNG UP NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER BY 00Z THU. THE 23.12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST SOUTH MODEL
WITH THE FRONT AND CONVECTION...AND SEEMS MOST REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONVECTION TRACKS. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST IA BUT STILL ONLY AS MUCH AS 50 PERCENT BY LATE
IN THE DAY GIVEN ANTICIPATION FOR MOST CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH.
GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF CAPE TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK WAS SHIFTED MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS...OUTSIDE THE 23.12Z
ECMWF...HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE FRONT IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA HEADING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN OR WI. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE IS DRY...WHEREAS THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND HAVE PRECIP. THE GFS/NAM ALSO HAVE HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH SEEM TOO HIGH. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE IN TAYLOR COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE AND SOME SUN LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST TO THE NORTH WHERE LONGER PERIOD OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
23.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAIN THE SAME LONG WAVE PATTERN THEY
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING SHIFTING AND BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON
THURSDAY...CAUSING FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.. THIS SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION GOING INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG PHASE 6. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS TEMPERATURES TO HOLD AT OR NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMALS...WITH PERHAPS A SLOW WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY GULF OF MEXICO RETURN OF MOISTURE SHOULD
GET SHUTOFF WITH MOISTURE SOURCES MOSTLY TURNING TO
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND WHAT SYSTEMS CAN BRING OFF THE PACIFIC DOWN
THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT NEAR
THE IA/MO BORDER AT 00Z THU REALLY DETERMINES THE CONVECTION
CHANCES. CURRENT THINKING LIES ALONG THE MORE PREFERRED ECMWF VERSUS
THE BIASED NORTH GFS/NAM/SREF/CANADIAN...WHICH SUGGESTS ANOTHER MCS
FORMING OVER CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...MARCHING LIKELY
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
HIGHEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS
MCS COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTH...THUS HAVE THE HIGHEST 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE FOR THE EVENING. TRIMMED CHANCES BACK FARTHER NORTH
AND AREAS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 18 MAY END UP DRY. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29...CLOSER TO THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHING ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN WI. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 23.12Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM WANT TO FIRE UP SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE 23.12Z
ECMWF SHOWS THESE SAME SHORTWAVES BUT IS DRY. MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE
RELATES TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ITS IMPACT TO CAPE. AT BOTH
00Z FRI AND 00Z SAT...THE GFS IS NEARLY 10F HIGHER ON SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO THE ECMWF. THINKING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT AND THUS
HAVE ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AT MOST...HIGHEST IN WESTERN AREAS.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...BUT THEN THERE IS
AN ISSUE WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MODELS TIMING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE 23.12Z
ECMWF IS FASTEST AND SPREADS SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...WHEREAS THE 23.12Z CANADIAN/GFS WAIT UNTIL EITHER LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. GIVEN THE SPREAD...HAVE KEPT A 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ALL 3 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY A GOOD PORTION
CAN PROBABLY BE DRIED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS ONCE THE TIMING GETS
RESOLVED. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...KRST WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG 500 TO
600 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND. THIS WILL KEEP A BROKEN 12-20K FOOT
DECK OF CLOUDS AT THE SITE. MEANWHILE AT KLSE...THIS
FRONTOGENETIC BAND LOOKS TO SAY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN THAT DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
253 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VERY CONDITIONAL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...VERY HIGH DEW POINTS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW
POINTS RANGE FROM 61 AT SIDNEY...TO 60 AT CHEYENNE TO 55 AT
DOUGLAS AT 1PM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE ANTICIPATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP DUE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW ISOLATED CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AROUND THE LARAMIE AREA/SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING RIGHT AROUND 750MB
HERE AT CHEYENNE...730MB AT CHADRON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THIS
CAP IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 00Z WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ANYWHERE FROM -60 J/KG HERE AT CHEYENNE TO -100 J/KG AT CHADRON
FROM SPC`S PAGE. GOING TO TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK THIS CAP...IF WE
DO IT AT ALL.
DO THINK CURRENT IDEA OF LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ON TRACK. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS
EVENING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. ALREADY SEEING
THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN WESTERN WYOMING AHEAD OF THAT
SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR CONVECTIVE SIMULATION SHOWING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT AFTER 00Z NEAR LUSK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING. ALSO SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG CELL DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR CHEYENNE AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SO DO
FEEL THE LATEST SPIC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS AND ECMWF QPF OUTPUT HAS CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO 12Z BEFORE
FINALLY ENDING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DO HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT
COULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS. TIMING IS PERFECT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THE LAST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL EXIT INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION AND
HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...CONTINUE TO
DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED. THE PLAINS WILL BE VOID OF CONVECTION AS THE MID LEVELS
WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES MORESO EARLY WEEK WITH STOUT MID
LEVEL CAP. THE UPSHOT IS A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
TSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BECOMING SCATTERED AS IT MOVES EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR STORMS AT ANY PARTICULAR AERODROME...SO MENTIONED VETS FOR
THIS TAF PACKAGE. NEXT SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
STORMS. ATOM...BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO
SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. THE SREF...NAM AND GFS ALL INDICATE LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS WESTERN NE AFTER 09Z WHEN CONVECTION ENDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
303...304...306 AND POSSIBLY 308. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD CREATE ISOLATED AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE MOST AREAS ARE STILL GREEN ON
FUELS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. WETTING RAINS EXPECTED FROM
LARAMIE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE. MORE DRIER...HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR CARBON COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.AVIATION...25/06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU THE FCST PD. SFC WINDS WL BE GENERALLY FM
THE S/SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP AROUND THE STATE TODAY
WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.
HAVE ALREADY BEGAN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED POPS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH HRRR AND WRF AGREE POP UP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ARKNASAS...HOWEVER DO
BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
RIVER AND THUS JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT AND HUMID ON THURSDAY...SO A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES
TO THE WEST AND NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING
IN CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DO BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID DAY ON
SATURDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS A
RESULT...DID BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AND REMOVE
THEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR COOLER AND DRY AIR
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER AIR PATTERNS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE WELL AMPLIFIED AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A 2 SIGMA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A 2 SIGMA TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED A THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER...AS
THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED JUN 24 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ON
THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO DISTANT STORMS. MORE HUMID AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING TO MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... THINGS ARE QUIETING DOWN THIS HOUR...AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER GILA COUNTY HAVE
PRETTY MUCH ALL DISSIPATED. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WERE
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND A BIT OF BLOWING DUST...MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY AS OUTFLOWS FROM THEM WORKED THEIR WAY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER PHX AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT...HAVE DECIDED TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE A LESS ACTIVE DAY THEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AS THE
INVERTED TROF THAT HELPED TO TRIGGER TODAY/S ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY... CONVECTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PANNED OUT QUITE NICELY COMPARED TO HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS WITH MAIN EMPHASIS AREA...AS OF THIS WRITING...OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EXPANDING WESTWARD. A SMALLER AREA DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PINAL AND FAR NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES. LOWER LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE EAST STALLED OUT OVER GILA/EASTERN
PINAL/NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES...BARELY MAKING IT INTO FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO. THE LACK OF MOIST ADVECTION FURTHER
WEST ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOIST
ADVECTION...THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STILL VERY LARGE. THIS
BODES WELL FOR STORMS THAT WILL BE POTENT WIND PRODUCERS BUT WITH
MEAGER RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. STORMS NOT
LIKELY TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SUCH MEAGER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...JUST WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF DUST...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTH AND EASTERN FRINGES OF
PHOENIX METRO. NOT LOOKING FOR THE GIANT WALL OF DUST TODAY BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY FOR PINAL COUNTY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LEADING TO EVER SO SLIGHT LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL WITH STORMS NOT VERY LIKELY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY BEGINS SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RICH MOISTURE SURFACE WORKS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST. SFC DEWPOINTS PUSHING SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S AND PWATS
START TO HEAD TOWARDS THE 1.25 INCH MARK...WHICH PUSH INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE SEASONAL MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE PHX AREA. POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FORECAST AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED DEWPOINT SFCS AND
NIGHTLY DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL WORK TO NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WARM MORNING STARTS BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS
INTO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST REGIME BY THE WEEKEND...WHERE
BROADBRUSH POPS REIGN AND ONE DAY`S FORECAST MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT`S ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... TYPICAL
EASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING TO TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BREEZES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY PUSH SOME SORT OF EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KIWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED
AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK BEFORE STORM CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WETTING RAINS TENDING
TO BE LOCALIZED. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THIS
PATTERN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FOR NOW THE NORTHERN STREAM IS RUNNING
OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH JUST A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH WE FIND AN
ILL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF
THE BAHAMA ISLAND BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA. OVERALL THIS POSITION RESULTS IN WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WE WIND A BIT MORE DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES...BUT EVEN THIS FLOW IS ON THE WEAK
SIDE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE RATHER STUBBORN OVERNIGHT. LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER POLK/EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES SENT OUT A
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WHICH
HAS SUPPORTED RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS IT PROGRESSED INTO THE NATURE COAST. REGIONAL RADARS
STILL SHOWING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS COUNTIES. IF
THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF THE ORIGINAL BOUNDARY...THEN SOME SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST OF LEVY COUNTY IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE INCLUDING 20-30% POPS ACROSS THESE
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE DAY IN STORE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION
FOLLOWING A NEUTRAL/VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
NATURE COAST ZONES. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST WILL
FAVOR SCT CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THEN MIGRATING INLAND TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR...OR EVEN FURTHER EAST BY THE EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH THE MORE VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN USUALLY SUPPORTS
COASTAL STORMS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON MIGRATING SLOWLY
INLAND BY THE LATER AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A DEFINED PATTERN
TO HELP OR OPPOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION...THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AFTER
20-21Z OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...HOWEVER A
GOOD PUSH OF OUTFLOW BACK TO THE WEST FROM ANY STORM CLUSTERS...
AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT NEW STORM FORMATION BACK TO TO TAMPA
BAY AREA AND THE SUNCOAST BY SUNSET OR LATER. THIS IS THE NATURE
OF SUMMER STORMS UNDER ILL-DEFINED FLOW. DAYSHIFT/EVENING SHIFT
WILL MONITOR STORM EVOLUTION CLOSELY AND UPDATE RAIN CHANCES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...AWAY FROM THE SUMMER STORMS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90.
TONIGHT...
SHOWER AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO
THE EVENING...AND THEN FADE TO A DRY PATTERN OVER THE LAND MASS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY SPEAKING STORMS LINGERING AS LONG AS
THEY HAVE EARLY THIS MORNING IS UNUSUAL...AND WILL NOT FORECAST A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MOST PLACES.
FRIDAY...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND VARIABLE FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES. A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR FORECAST RESULTS...AND A
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE/TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS IS
FORECAST TODAY. A BIG AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MORE ON THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND PULL A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL RESPOND BY SHIFTING SOUTH...SETTING UP MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS TYPICAL ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH THEN QUICKLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY...A SWATH OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
PARTICULARLY LIMITED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECTING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF STORMS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES CLOSER IN TOWARDS NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALLOWING STORM CHANCES TO
SPIKE TO AS MUCH AS 50-60 PERCENT OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NATURE
COAST...AND GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AND THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO A POSITION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A
MORE NEUTRAL SUMMERTIME SETUP...WITH LIGHT FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...AND GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MIGRATED NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE
ASSOCIATED TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW PREVAILING ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TYPICAL STORM
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY...AND MIGRATE INLAND WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPGD/KFMY/KRSW.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY AWAY FROM TYPICAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
WEEKEND...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS AT TIME TO THE NORTH
OF TARPON SPRINGS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TAKE ON A TYPICAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 79 91 78 / 40 20 40 20
FMY 93 76 92 77 / 50 40 50 10
GIF 94 76 93 75 / 60 50 60 20
SRQ 89 77 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 92 74 92 74 / 50 20 40 20
SPG 92 80 91 80 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
218 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
924 PM CDT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACK BUILDING
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARRIVING ARND 09Z AND
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING. MAY BE MORE RAIN THAN TSRA AFT 13Z.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SHRA AND TSRA TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THUNDER IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS. HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSRA COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST FEATURE IFR CIGS AND EXPECTING
THOSE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SFC LOW
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN
CLOCKWISE BECOMING NORTHEAST ARND 10 KT THIS AFTN. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE NE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE GUSTS AT THIS TIME. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AND
NE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF TSRA AND SHRA
THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AFT 12Z AND
HOW LONG SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEED OF NE WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTN.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AND HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE
TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
217 AM CDT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL
BE...BUT THINKING GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGHER THAN 20 KT. WE STAY IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SECOND...STRONGER LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ONE MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS LOW MAY BE AS DEEP AS 29.5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT OVER OHIO
WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG SO CAPPED
WIND GUSTS ARND 25 KT. WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE MONDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
924 PM CDT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER
STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO
RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE
THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED
ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
IT TO WITH ANY HASTE.
THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES
INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD
SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN
LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACK BUILDING
VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT.
THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WILL BE PUSHING BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TILL AROUND 06 UTC THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH PLANNED.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER MISSOURI...AND
THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI. AS SUCH...I HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS EVENING MAY BE DELAYED AND FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI...I AM
THINKING IT MAY BE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND
I DID CUT BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION AND HAVE PUSHED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OFF UNTIL 05 UTC FOR
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV...AND
THIS MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE EVENING A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF MY AREA...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH TIME...IT
APPEARS THE FOCUS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AND IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY...BRINGING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT TO AN END.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THIS TOO MAY END UP BEING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND BE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MOST OF MY AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...FINALLY.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
346 AM CDT
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THIS HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD BUT A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TO DEPICT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS THESE FEATURES
WILL PRODUCE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PAST 3 WEEKS.
DESPITE MENTION OF POPS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE LONG DRY SPELLS IN
BETWEEN AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE GENERALLY BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE BETTER WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONTS BEING DRIVEN
SOUTH VIA UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARRIVING ARND 09Z AND
PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING. MAY BE MORE RAIN THAN TSRA AFT 13Z.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SHRA AND TSRA TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THUNDER IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS. HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSRA COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST FEATURE IFR CIGS AND EXPECTING
THOSE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SFC LOW
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN
CLOCKWISE BECOMING NORTHEAST ARND 10 KT THIS AFTN. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE NE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE GUSTS AT THIS TIME. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AND
NE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF TSRA AND SHRA
THIS MORNING. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AFT 12Z AND
HOW LONG SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEED OF NE WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTN.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AND HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE
TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA ESPECIALLY LATE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE TSRA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND
WASH OUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
ILLINOIS. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST TO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1216 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL HEAD
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ARRIVE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING SCHUYLER...FULTON...KNOX COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL IL UNTIL 5 A.M. WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER UNTIL THEN AS THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND TAKING AIM AT
CENTRAL IL. UPDATING FORECAST FOR TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BUBBLE HIGH FROM
THE PERSISTENT MCS IN EAST CENTRAL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NW
MISSOURI TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE INFLUENCE THAT RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASING AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME WILL GIVE THE WARM FRONT A PUSH INTO
CENTRAL IL VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS NEAR THE
I-74 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE HIGHEST AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH (JUST NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR)...BUT THE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAVANA
TO LINCOLN TO CLINTON.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AFTER 05Z (MIDNIGHT CDT) AND CONTINUING UNTIL
DAYBREAK. AM EXPECTING A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN NW IL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKE A SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD. CORFIDI
VECTORS ON THE LATEST RAP INDICATE A RATHER DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS TO TRACK TOWARD THE I-74 CORRIDOR AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL IL BY DAYBREAK. THIS TYPE OF SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ONCE THE EXPECTED MCS TRACKS INTO INDIANA THURSDAY MORNING...THE
TRAILING OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SETTING
UP THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE COOL FRONT WILL EDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...LATEST
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THRU FRIDAY EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN OF THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VERSUS THE QUICKER
ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE POPS OUT...OR AT LEAST SLIGHTS...FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FORECAST BY MEDIMUM RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP A RATHER DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TAF
SITES FROM 06-08Z BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH COULD BECOME IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS BRIEFLY. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A FEW HOURS OF
POTENTIALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND 06-12Z FOR WHICH
TEMPO GROUPS WITH GUSTY/VARIABLE WINDS AND IFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. AFTERWARD...MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETLLING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL BEGINS TO BRING DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND LOW CLOUD COVER. WINDS E-SE 5-10 KTS VEERING TO SW
OVERNIGHT...THEN N AFTER COLD FRONT AFTER AROUND 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040-041-047>050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
203 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
EXISTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST UPDATE SENT A BIT AGO TO TRIM POPS PRIOR TO 8Z (MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH) BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MCV. MAIN SHOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS IOWA WITH SEVERAL LARGE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL OF THE HI
RES MODELS THEY ARE TRENDING MORE SE THAN EAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY/THETA E GRADIENT. WHILE THIS WILL TRY TO SURGE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...CONCERNS INCREASING THAT LITTLE RAIN MAY OCCUR
PRIOR TO 12Z (AND MAYBE LATER). HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED TIMING
OVERNIGHT TO BRING IN INCREASING CHANCES AFTER 12Z BUT BACKED OFF
ANY CAT POPS WILL 12Z OR AFTER. WILL DEFER ANY FURTHER BACKING OFF
OF POPS TO ARRIVING MIDNIGHT CREW AND MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
AS USUAL WITH SUMMER CONVECTION...A VERY COMPLICATED SETUP WITH
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY CONVECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
UPSTREAM TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
CONVECTION IN IL HAS STALLED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION OVER IA BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURGING BOUNDARY. EXPECT EARLY
EVENING TO BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT FIRST FOCUS WILL BE ON DECAYING
COMPLEX FROM IA MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR
AND RAP NOW PICKING UP ON THIS WHILE LOWER RES SPECTRAL MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH. THINK THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MUCAPES RISE
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. 0-3 KM AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR ALSO
INCREASE LATE WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
FUELING SECONDARY MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE
THE SYSTEM TO BRING FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD OCCUR GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH
BACKED WINDS. THUS THE ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR THIS
AREA.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH WE CAN
DESTABILIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE IN THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH THE VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND STILL NEARLY FULL RIVERS...STREAMS AND
RESERVOIRS WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THESE AREAS THAT
CANNOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND THE EASTERN TROF WILL DEEPENG
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.
BAROCLINIC DEEPENING FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT EJECTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES DIVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROF.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND EACH HAS SLIGHT
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES. WITH THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
AND THE COLD FLOW OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND -SHRA TO CONTINUE FROM SUN-WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
THIS WILL HELP KEEP SIGNIFICANT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION EXTENDING FROM NE IL INTO NW INDIANA. TRIED TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS IN TAFS IN THE LIGHT OF THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL FORECAST AND THE ONGOING RADAR AND SFC OBS. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...AND SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER NRN INDIANA UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-012>015-020-
022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
111 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WAS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR. A WEAK
LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS IOWA WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING BACK ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
18Z SFC DATA PLACES AN INFERRED LOW JUST EAST OF KOMA WITH A WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KSTL. DEW POINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
RADAR AND RAP TRENDS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MEANS THE COMPLEX WILL BE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECONDARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN WESTERN IOWA MAY POSE THE BETTER
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. IF SEVERE STORMS DO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD BE MORE AT
THREAT.
AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GROW UPSCALE AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY A THREAT AS STORMS
MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY...RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS PLAUSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY...RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE REMAINS IN THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN PER THE 12Z NAM...ALTHOUGH
THAT PARTICULAR MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH ON QPF. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS
THROUGH THE REGION IN SHARPENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FORCING WILL
EXIT QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A DRY PERIOD CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GUIDE
PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS BLENDED
POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ARE REASONABLE. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
TOUCHING THE LOWER 80S.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THU MORNING.
ALTHOUGH KBRL IS CURRENTLY AT IFR WHICH SHOULD NOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER AS A STRONG STORM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AT
KBRL SHOULD ALSO FALL BELOW 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS ARE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF -TSRA/TSRA THROUGH
10Z IS A KBRL...HENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THERE. A RETURN TO VFR IS FORECAST AREAWIDE INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOILS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
ALREADY QUITE MOIST AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
SATURATE THE SOILS. AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS AND SOME ARE IN FLOOD. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISES...SOME POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT...ON AREA RIVERS AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS SW AND FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY STORMS HAVE FIRED UP JUST NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BUT ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND WILL BE AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG I-80 AND THE METRO AREA. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...AFT
09Z OR 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PROVIDING
SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. MUCH OF THIS AREA REMAINS
CAPPED AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HIGH
CAPE VALUES AVAILABLE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS LOCATION THEY
LIKELY WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON INITIATION WITH STRONG VEERING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A TORNADIC THREAT THROUGH THE MID-
EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THINKING THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LLJ DEVELOPS
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE
NORTH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. STORM
REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BETWEEN 02Z TO 05Z THURSDAY OVER
THIS CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE FRONT SHOULD LIGHT UP ALONG
THIS REGION. THE 24.19Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHES THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS BUT STILL LOOKING
AT A BREAK BETWEEN REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING MORE LIKELY
STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN SHORT WAVE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY 12Z...BUT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MORNING. AS FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THURSDAY...EXPECTING A BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL BE HELD BACK IN THE
70S FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF IOWA
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS COOL FRONTS DROP
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE
LITTLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS IN TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH 11Z WILL
PERSIST ACROSS KDSM AND KOTM NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 11 THEN IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY 15Z ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
TAF LOCATIONS MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS
WILL BECOME NRLY AFT 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DETERIORATE AFT
26/03Z WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL IA TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WILL STILL NEED TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE WATCH FARTHER WEST. VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 13-14KFT RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY AND
WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL ALREADY TODAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. THUS...EXPANDED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS AND QPF
CONSIDERABLY B/T 03-09Z THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN PROBLEM IS WHERE THE FRONT CURRENTLY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH
OVER OUR AREA IS GOING TO GO AND HOW FAST. INITIALLY THE FRONT
CAME FURTHER SOUTH FASTER THAN ANYTHING DEPICTED. THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT HAS STALLED NEAR A BURLINGTON TO GOODLAND TO OBERLIN TO
NORTON LINE. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LARGE SCALE OUTPUT...NOT DOING
WELL WITH THE FRONT POSITION. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY
RIGHT NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LESS BUT STILL NEAR PLUS 15.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION NEAREST
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING. SO GOING BY ABOVE REASONING WHICH MATCHES WHAT
THE RAP IS SHOWING...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION GOES THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW THEM MAKING IT
VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THEY WILL MAKE FURTHER
THAN INDICATED AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WENT AHEAD AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS VERY SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH. NOT
SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO/WHERE IT WILL BE SINCE THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SO POOR RIGHT NOW. NAM STILL DOES NOT HAVE IT THROUGH
THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW. OTHER OUTPUT HAS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DO HAVE HAVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SINCE AM NOT SURE OF THE FINAL FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
AREA JUST HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY
FRONTAL POSITION. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU
JUN 25 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFY LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN WHILE THE TROUGH STARTS TO FILL.
OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR
WEST. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO PRODUCE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RANGE WHILE
THE LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 60S DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGLD AND KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE AS STRATUS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN PROBLEM IS WHERE THE FRONT CURRENTLY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH
OVER OUR AREA IS GOING TO GO AND HOW FAST. INITIALLY THE FRONT
CAME FURTHER SOUTH FASTER THAN ANYTHING DEPICTED. THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT HAS STALLED NEAR A BURLINGTON TO GOODLAND TO OBERLIN TO
NORTON LINE. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LARGE SCALE OUTPUT...NOT DOING
WELL WITH THE FRONT POSITION. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY
RIGHT NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LESS BUT STILL NEAR PLUS 15.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION NEAREST
THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING. SO GOING BY ABOVE REASONING WHICH MATCHES WHAT
THE RAP IS SHOWING...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION GOES THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW THEM MAKING IT
VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THEY WILL MAKE FURTHER
THAN INDICATED AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WENT AHEAD AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS VERY SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH. NOT
SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO/WHERE IT WILL BE SINCE THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SO POOR RIGHT NOW. NAM STILL DOES NOT HAVE IT THROUGH
THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW. OTHER OUTPUT HAS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DO HAVE HAVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SINCE AM NOT SURE OF THE FINAL FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
AREA JUST HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY
FRONTAL POSITION. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.
WITH LIMITING FORCING ALOFT I AM NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE WILL
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE
FLUX/MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND PEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. TRACK WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/FRONT POSITION...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE I COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH SLOWEST STORMS WOULD BE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. MODERATE
INSTABILITY A GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
LATER IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION/ LINGERING
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY
NIGHT. I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20...SINCE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THESE PERIODS.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
US WITH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF THROUGH
THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS AMPLIFIED NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PRIMARY STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA.
MODELS SHOW LEE TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
SHORTWAVES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OCCASIONAL KICKING
BACKDOOR FRONTS TOWARDS THE WESTERN PLAINS. TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS MOST PERIODS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL FROM THE ECMWF
WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS GFS/GEFS SHOWS LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING SLIGHTLY. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS...SO I LIMITED POPS TO 20/30. TUESDAY IS ALSO THE DAY WITH
THE LARGEST TEMP SPREAD ALOFT/AT THE SURFACE WITH GFS POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING NEAR 100F AND ECMWF CLOSER TO THE LOW/MID 90S. I KEPT MID-
UPPER 90S INHERITED FROM WEIGHTED BLEND CONSIDERING THE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGLD AND KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE AS STRATUS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND THE NMM AND ARW WRF REALLY KILL
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF IT AS IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHEAST. WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
EAST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE FROM 12Z-
17Z JUST IN CASE IT DOES SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN THE CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS WILL PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...EITHER AS AN OUTFLOW OR THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT...BY MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FIGURE ON A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DECENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A REALLY JUICY AIRMASS AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS OUR MID-SECTION LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SPARSE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN IT MAY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT TO
THE AR/TN BORDER AREAS...IF CONVECTION IS NOT ONGOING AND RE-
ENFORCING IT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA REGARDLESS
OF WHERE IT ENDS UP TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.
THE BEST ADVICE I HAVE IS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SEE WHERE WE ARE FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
MODELS DO AGREE ON A RAPID DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FIGURE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 AREAWIDE. WILL WRITE
ONE MORE SPS FOR THIS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT. WITH THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100. SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GIVEN THE RATHER MARGINAL PERFORMANCE OF A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE 12Z WEDNESDAY/00Z THURSDAY MODEL CYCLES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID
INITIALIZE BETTER AND WERE AT LEAST USED A FRAMEWORK TOWARD THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SEMI-
PERMANENT CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
EXISTENCE AND ORIENTATION OF THE POP FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS OWED TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT
OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PLAY HAVOC IN THE GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR VARIATIONS IN POP
ASSESSMENT FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE COVERAGE AREAS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, ANY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINOR.
THE LOW TO HIGH END RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
EXPERIENCING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE PATTERN
FEATURES. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACT EARLY ON TO DEPICT ANY
DEVIATIONS TO THE MEAN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STATIC UPPER AIR FIELDS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WINDS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA SUGGESTS SOME REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE CLOSE TO THE
KEVV/KOWB TERMINALS AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL TREND WITH A
VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A FEW CU AND CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SW WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KEVV AND KOWB AGAIN AFTER 00Z TOMORROW
EVENING. WILL HOLD AND TAKE A LOOK AT MORE DATA BEFORE ADDING A
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
146 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN PATCHES
STILL OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TAF SITES LOOK TO STAY DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT IN THE AEX TAF AREA BUT ONLY EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. LOOKING AHEAD ON THURSDAY MOSTLY VFR
TO PREVAIL WITH VCNTY TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
GETS STORMS FIRED UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DIFFERENCE WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...IS STRONGEST ACTIVITY
IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND
INSTABILITY IS JUST A TAD LESS...THUS STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...MAINLY FROM BOUNDARY COLLISION...THAT
COULD PRODUCE A DOWNBURST. OTHERWISE...A LOT OF LIGHTNING...AND
WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...WITH
LEFT OVER CONVECTION CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM...BEFORE MOST
LAND AREAS WILL BE SHOWER FREE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
LANDBREEZE.
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT TO INCREASE THEM OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS...AND REDUCING THEM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BASED ON
LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER C LA MOVING W OF AEX...NOT LIKELY TO BE A
PROBLEM. LARGER COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN FROM MS/SE LA WILL LIKELY AFFECT LFT/ARA THIS
EVENING 01-04Z...PLACING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS AT ARA/LFT.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE IN THE DISSIPATING STAGE BY THE TIME/OR IF
IT REACHES LCH...LEAVING ONLY VCTS AT THIS TIME THRU 03Z. AFTER
03-04Z...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR THU...EXPECTING ISO
SHRA/TSRA...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL GIVE
THE AREA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY.
SHORT RANGE...THE HRRR DEPICTS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE
ATCHAFALAYA IN EASTERLY FLOW AND MOVING INTO THE ACADIANA AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS DUE TO THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS HIGH
THETA AIR AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUING
ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT ON A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROF INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
OUR AREA AND BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR
AREA AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 91 77 90 75 / 40 20 30 20
LCH 90 79 88 76 / 40 10 30 10
LFT 92 77 88 75 / 40 10 30 10
BPT 90 78 89 76 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE REGION SOUTH OF I-96
WILL SEE THE STEADIEST...AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...BY DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ONLY SEE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE RAINS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL DRY
OUT...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AT THIS POINT...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL STAY MILD
WITHOUT TOO MUCH HEAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 75 TO
80 INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FORECAST DILEMMA TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAP MODEL DATA SHOWS A
GLANCING BLOW OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE 01Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS
A BATCH OF RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.
SO...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THE CHANCES TAPER OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH AS THIS AREA IS MOST REMOVED
FROM THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OFF THE RAP ACROSS
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING OVERALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN AS THE FOCUS FOR THAT SHOULD BE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS MAY POSE MORE HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD I-94 TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IOWA. THIS FRONT ALREADY HAD A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF IOWA THAT WAS SPREADING AND
EXPANDING ENE. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A 35-40 KT DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN IL TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND INTO SW MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
ALSO CROSS THIS AREA AT THE SAME TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH THIS FAVORABLE FORCING BELIEVE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. INSTABILITY MEANWHILE IS
QUITE LOW...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA...WE WILL BE MONITORING FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON JET DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SAG SE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE I-94
CORRIDOR...BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE EXTENDED
WITH A UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WITH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RAINS...BUT WE WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW
BUT MAY GET A DIURNAL BOOST GIVEN STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE 06Z SET OF FCSTS IS ON THE POTENTIAL RAIN
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
AREA. THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IA AND IL ARE MOVING
ESE AND ARE EXPECTED TO MISS THE AREA. WE DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN TERMINALS ALONG
I-94.
THE BEST TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE AFTER 12Z AND BEFORE 21Z. WE
EXPECT MVFR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG.
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DOWN SOUTH. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE CHC LOOKS TOO SMALL AT THIS TIME
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION IN THE FCST.
WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AND MOVE OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
FAIRLY BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SYCAMORE
CREEK NEAR HOLT. THE RIVER LEVEL IS CURRENTLY HOVERING RIGHT AT
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THIS PRODUCES FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER, IN LANSING MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE, AND
SECTIONS OF EAST MT. HOPE ROAD. SEVERAL OTHER RIVER FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN AFFECT ACROSS THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO RIVER
BASINS.
A SURFACE LOW AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WNW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH WILL SERVE
TO SUPPRESS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. A QUARTER
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST PROBABLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 DID SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OF COURSE. AT THIS POINT...STANDING WATER REMAINS
PRIMARILY ONLY IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS SUCH AS FIELDS. SEVERE STORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO
STORM DRAINS SHOULD FARE BETTER. THE DECLINE OF RIVER LEVELS MAY BE
BRIEFLY SLOWED...BUT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
429 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Shortwave will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night and the
surface front will sweep through the area finally bringing an end
to the rain. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in good agreement with
ending the precip across the area between 03-09Z Saturday (with
perhaps some lingering sprinkles as a vortmax or two moves across
the area). Saturday and Sunday still look cool and dry for the
most part...although guidance is now printing out some very light
QPF each afternoon as a couple of more shortwaves move across the
area into the base of the longwave trof. Gut feeling is that there
won`t be enough low level moisture to fuel precipitation, but it`s
something to keep an eye on. More substantial chances for
precipitation develop Sunday night as the low level jet turns back
to the southwest ahead of a clipper-type low allowing moisture
back in from the southeastern Plains. The trof over the eastern
CONUS remains entrenched through the medium range which hints a
temperatures near or a bit below normal into next week and
continuing chances for precipitation as shortwaves move across the
area in the northwest flow aloft.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
The leading edge of a large NW-SE elonagated complex of thunderstorms
has moved out of Iowa into northeast MO and will continue tracking
southeast impacting KUIN for a good portion of the overnight hours.
Heavy rain and gusty winds and IFR conditions can be expected periodically
at the terminal. Present indications are that thunderstorms should
weaken and move to the east of the terminal between 12-14z. How
far south the storms may get is difficult to gage. Think they will
remain northeast of KCOU but the St. Louis area may be a close
call with the fringes and thus have added a VCTS in the 11-15z
time frame. After the morning activity, I am anticipating a lull
with VFR flight conditions until late this afternoon and early
this evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to
develop along an east-west front located across northern MO into
central IL. A very stormy night is expected in the vicinity of
this front with potential for significant impacts at many of the
terminals.
Specifics for KSTL:
Watching an elongated complex of thunderstorms currently stretching
from northeast MO into central IA, and tracking southeast. Whether
they impact KSTL is difficult to gage and think it will be a close
call with the fringes skirting the area, and thus have added a
VCTS in the 11-15z time frame. After the morning activity, I am
anticipating a lull with VFR flight conditions until early this
evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to develop
along an east-west front located across northern MO into central
IL. The storms should move east-southeast and there is potential
for a very stormy night with significant impacts at the terminal.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 74 79 65 / 50 60 70 60
Quincy 87 68 74 61 / 60 60 70 30
Columbia 93 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 80 63 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 72 79 65 / 50 60 70 70
Farmington 95 71 82 63 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Pike IL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2015
Frontal boundary to begin moving slowly south into forecast area
on Thursday. Will see several shortwaves move along boundary
through Friday night. Best chances of rain will be Thursday night
through Friday. Some concern about rainfall amounts with this
system, could see an inch or two with locally higher amounts
possible, will just depend on how fast or slow system moves
through. It appears to be a fairly progressive system onces in
starts moving through.
Precipitation will taper off Friday night and will see cooler and
drier weather for the weekend. Next chance for rain will be Sunday
night through Wednesday with several rounds expected once again on
active northwest flow aloft. Highs during the weekend will be in the
mid to upper 70s, then moderate a bit by Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
The leading edge of a large NW-SE elonagated complex of thunderstorms
has moved out of Iowa into northeast MO and will continue tracking
southeast impacting KUIN for a good portion of the overnight hours.
Heavy rain and gusty winds and IFR conditions can be expected periodically
at the terminal. Present indications are that thunderstorms should
weaken and move to the east of the terminal between 12-14z. How
far south the storms may get is difficult to gage. Think they will
remain northeast of KCOU but the St. Louis area may be a close
call with the fringes and thus have added a VCTS in the 11-15z
time frame. After the morning activity, I am anticipating a lull
with VFR flight conditions until late this afternoon and early
this evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to
develop along an east-west front located across northern MO into
central IL. A very stormy night is expected in the vicinity of
this front with potential for significant impacts at many of the
terminals.
Specifics for KSTL:
Watching an elongated complex of thunderstorms currently stretching
from northeast MO into central IA, and tracking southeast. Whether
they impact KSTL is difficult to gage and think it will be a close
call with the fringes skirting the area, and thus have added a
VCTS in the 11-15z time frame. After the morning activity, I am
anticipating a lull with VFR flight conditions until early this
evening. At that time, new thunderstorms are expected to develop
along an east-west front located across northern MO into central
IL. The storms should move east-southeast and there is potential
for a very stormy night with significant impacts at the terminal.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 74 79 65 / 50 60 70 60
Quincy 87 68 74 61 / 60 60 70 30
Columbia 93 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 80 63 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 72 79 65 / 50 60 70 70
Farmington 95 71 82 63 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Pike IL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Friday afternoon FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
AT 08Z...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EXTREME SERN NEBR
THROUGH NWRN KS INTO NERN CO AND SRN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH ECTRL WY AND SWRN SD WITH A ASSOCIATED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN GILLETTE AND CASPER ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH PINE RIDGE SD ON THE EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO SCTRL MT. TEMPERATURES IN WRN
NEBR RANGE FROM 63 TO 66 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EXITING IDAHO INTO
WRN MT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SERN MT/NERN WY AND WRN SD BY 18Z. PRIOR TO
THIS...EXISTING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT H85 ACROSS NWRN
NEBR/SWRN SD AND NERN WY WILL KEEP CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
GOING THOUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEBR THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL INCREASE AND
EXPAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS WRN NEBR. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SINCE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS WRN NEBR. CORRESPONDING PWAT
VALUES TO INCREASE TO 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 00Z. 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 KTS THIS AFTN AS 0-6KM
MUCAPES RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NW OF VALENTINE
THROUGH OSHKOSH. HIGHS FCST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN NEBR ARE FORECAST TO CONGEAL
INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE DROP
SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND 03Z SREF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. LIKELY POPS WEST OF HWY
183 THIS EVENING...THEN POPS DECREASE FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
GENERALLY WEST OF ANW THROUGH BBW. LOWS TO RANGE FROM 56 TO 62.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FRIDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWEST FLOW. FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEPARTING
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING FROM NW TO SE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE STORM TRACK GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THUS A DRY AND SEASONAL TO SEASONALLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE THE RIDGE
WITH A COOL FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES...BACK INTO THE 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF IS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAP AND GFS. THE
NAM INDICATES VERY LOW CIGS...PERHAPS FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z. VFR SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD BY 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING BUT SO WHAT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
BE FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO REACH HIGHWAY 61 AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS FAVORABLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS.
ROSCOE AND NORTH PLATTE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN FLOOD
STAGE AND ACTION STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FLOOD ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE ELEVATED ABOVE
ACTION STAGE AT LISCO WHILE REMAINING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
LEWELLEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AREAS OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE. FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE
PAST 72 HOURS WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
CONUS...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND OUTFLOW FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT NOW NEAR THE
KS/NE BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
NOTED AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS
BEGUN TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
HAVE ALSO FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...A FEW STORMS MAY MAKE IT
INTO OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING MOST MODELS SHOW PRECIP CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD WHERE THE
LLJ MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
THE NORTH OF A FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN INITIATE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
40+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 61 IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE
FLOW...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADEQUATE BULK
SHEAR SHOULD HELP STORMS ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH FLOW
ALOFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SOUTHWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP PERIOD
DRY AT THIS TIME AS NO REAL DEFINED UPPER WAVE EVIDENT WITHIN FLOW
ALOFT. A FAIRLY WARM PERIOD AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF IS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAP AND GFS. THE
NAM INDICATES VERY LOW CIGS...PERHAPS FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z. VFR SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
BY 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT WRN AND NCNTL NEB LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS ACROSS THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS HAPPENING BUT SO WHAT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE
FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO REACH HIGHWAY 61 AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS FAVORABLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
428 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. THEN AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS AT 08Z.
ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z H5/7 HGT FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE OUR AREA WILL
NOT PICK UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM...THE
SYSTEMS EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA AND THICKEN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL NOT BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE TO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
JET INDUCED LIFT UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A 100KT JET OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NUISANCE SHOWER OVER
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND GENESEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. PARTS
OF THE NORMALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY COULD TICKLE 80.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH THE GREAT EAST IMPROVEMENT COMING NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT
TO SEA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SPREADS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD YIELD A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY TO START OFF THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +9C TO +12C LARGELY YIELDING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...WHERE THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER.
AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL GO MARKEDLY DOWNHILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF
THIS TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ON ITS EASTERN
FLANK...AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNDER THIS REGIME...OUR WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WET
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RESULTING LOWER/UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ACT TO PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT
GENERATED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT/VERY EARLY SATURDAY... BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION BETWEEN THE REST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WHILE
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION IN CONCERT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
LEVEL JET...HOWEVER LIGHTER RAINS SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS SET UP AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND AS THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION ALOFT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL NOT REALLY BEGIN
TO DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FINALLY
PROGGED TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA.
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE RETAINED OUR CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM CONTINUITY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK TO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OWING TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OF A
GENERAL NORTHERLY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
CORE OF THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE
COLLECTIVELY SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE AS MUCH AS ONE AND
A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COURSE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE BULK OF THIS LIKELY FALLING OVER A
36-48 HOUR PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND REMAINING NON-
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA...UNLESS THE BULK OF THE RAIN
ULTIMATELY FALLS WITHIN A SUBSTANTIALLY SHORTER TIME FRAME THAN
THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WITH YET ANOTHER /ALBEIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON OUR REGION AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR...VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THOUGH...AS MAINLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY
THINNING OUT FROM THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LK ONTARIO)...BUT MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...CHURCH/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
232 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS CLOUDS THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE.
AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
LATER TODAY...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE MID WEST. A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA AT 06Z
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. ANALYSIS OF
THE 00Z H5/7 HGT FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL TRACK JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED
THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE OUR AREA WILL
NOT PICK UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM...THE
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THICKEN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL NOT BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE TO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME JET INDUCED LIFT UNDER
THE RR QUAD OF A 100KT JET OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NUISANCE SHOWER OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND GENESEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES...WITH ONLY MINIMAL CLEARING
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
FRIDAY A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A DRY PUSH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE IMPROVEMENT
SEEN IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
IMPROVED SKY COVER INTO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY RANGE. THE
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +12C WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE JUNE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A WET WEEKEND. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE LAST COUPLE DETERMINISTIC RUNS GIVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF WESTERN
NY... WITH THE A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
WEST. THIS SET UP WILL YIELD A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT PLACES
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT... AND ALONG/NORTH
OF SHARPLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL EVOLVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. EXPECT SYNOPTIC ASCENT / RAINFALL TO EVOLVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN NY... BUT CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST BACK ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH / VORT ADVECTION EVOLVING OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHERLY AND BECOMING UPSLOPE. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW / 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO +6C / AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS... HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE...STIFF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY MAKING THE COOL AND WET
WEATHER FEEL EVEN MORE RAW THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR...VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THOUGH...AS MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LK ONTARIO).
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
420 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NC FRIDAY WILL GET ABSORBED
BY THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES NE
FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL NY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILDING/ADVECTING IN BEHIND
IT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE
AFT/EVE HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS WILL DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
80S...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK IN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...
A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO POP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... WHERE MLCAPE IS STILL IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH IS LOW. DCAPE ALSO REMAINS VERY
HIGH...UPWARDS OF 1200 J/KG...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
IS STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN
RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RAP SHOWS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...BUT
THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LOW... HOWEVER. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND A FEW
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD A LITTLE...IT WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA AND RETREAT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN OPEN UP
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO CONVECTION WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z BUT MORE PROMINENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
FLOW BACK NORTHWARD. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS WITH WEAK HELICITY AT LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS UP TO 6 KM DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PW
APPROACHING 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING
THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW THAT COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...INDICATING THAT
HAIL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. INVERTED V SIGNATURES AND A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z SUGGEST THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH. IN
ADDITION...WHILE MOST OF THE JET SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...A STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE VA BORDER
AFTER 00Z WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT TO ANY PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION AND
INCREASE HELICITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO BUT MITIGATING THIS THREAT IS THE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
WILL SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY AFT/EVE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO BE STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER NC FRIDAY WILL GET ABSORBED
BY THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES NE
FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL NY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILDING/ADVECTING IN BEHIND
IT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE
AFT/EVE HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES: FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAYS...HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MID 80S...BEFORE REBOUNDING
BACK IN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BEHAVE
SIMILARLY...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
FRIDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING AS NAM PROJECTED MLCAPE IS
AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 30KTS...NOT
SHABBY FOR LATE JUNE (THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...CAPE IN THE 1500-
2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE). THIS SUGGEST
A CHANCE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...RAH/WSS
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AROUND ZERO AND WINDS
WILL BE NEARLY CALM. LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE DIURNAL COOLING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING PRODUCED FUNNEL CLOUDS EARLIER
AND NOW LARGE HAIL. LEFT MOVER HAS BEEN A THORN THE LAST HOUR OR
SO NEAR BEULAH AND HAZEN WHERE THE LARGE HAIL WAS PRODUCED WITHIN
THE PAST HALF HOUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF
SUNDOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD NOW THROUGH
06Z. A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM SOUTHEAST YET THIS
EVENING AS WELL. WENT DRY AND MAINTAINED FOG OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY WITH CHANCES DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC...AND A CONSENSUS OF THE 20-22
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS...DECREASED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ADDED A
MENTION OF FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TOMORROW.
QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THE 12 UTC MODEL CYCLE GREATLY DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...MOVES INTO
THE DAKOTAS. IN FACT...THE 12 UTC NAM/GEM REGIONAL ARE THE TWO
MOST INSISTENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE...AND THEY DO NOT
INITIATE UNTIL AFTER NOON TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ADJUST THE
BROADBRUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THERE
IS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A NICE
WARMING TREND.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THURSDAY
EVENING CONTINUES TO SEE MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS AND CAPE VALUES ~1-1.5
KJ/KG. THIS WILL BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THAT SHOULD BE
OVER BY SUNDOWN AND THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WAA INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
AS ANY RIDGE RIDER WAVE/EMBEDDED IMPULSE COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ANY GIVEN DAY. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
ISOLATED/LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KJMS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS KDIK
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
207 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOMORROW AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK ECHOES FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. A
SHORTWAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA/ ILLINOIS BORDER AND
CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED EAST THIS
EVENING INTO ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE LEFTOVERS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 1
AND 4 AM THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THERE MIGHT NOT
BE MUCH LEFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA. LATEST KILN SOUNDING DOES SHOW
WE HAVE STARTED TO SATURATE BUT THERE STILL REMAINS DRY AIR IN THE
700 TO 900 MB LAYER. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWER TO MID 60S STILL LOOKS ON TARGET AS
THICKER CLOUDS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MOVE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA. AFTER WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
13 - 15Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SUITE
OF HIGH RES RUNS. STILL AM EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE ABLE TO
RECHARGE ENOUGH TO GET LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF GFS/
NAM SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1900/ 2500 J/KG RESPECTIVELY WITH
AMPLE SHEAR VALUES (40 TO 50 KTS OF 0 - 6 KM SHEAR). DUE TO THE
MENTIONED ABOVE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION ->
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. SIGNALS FROM RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z WHICH LINES UP
WITH AN ARW SOLUTION. SO STRONGER STORMS MAY SLIDE IN SOUTH OF
DAYTON AND HEAD MORE TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
AS REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN.
IF SOMETHING ALONG THESE LINES OCCURS THEN WOULD EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS.
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE
AREA STORMS WILL RE-FIRE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THAT INSTABILITY RELOADS AS EXPECTED...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS IN
PLAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS IT HEADS
SOUTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING.
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 1.75 INCHES WITH THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER CLOSER TO 4 KM DEEP. SO THIS COULD BE ANOTHER HIGHLY
EFFICIENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF
OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION. SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COULD PUSH 90 WHILE I-70 NORTHWARDS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE
TO NEAR 80. THEREAFTER EXPECT A NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE WITH WARM
LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FA AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EAST AND
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE FA. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S EXPECTED.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO THE
FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS N OF KDAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
H5 S/W THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA DURING THE PERIOD. THE SHRA
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KDAY...BUT COULD BRUSH KCMH/KLCK IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER.
MODELS THEN BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
LATEST TIMING HAS IT ARRIVING INTO THE TAFS A LITTLE AFTER 12Z AND
PUSHING THROUGH BY 16Z. AXIS OF BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
I-70.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THRU THE TAFS.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECHARGE. FOR EXAMPLE THE 2 HIRES WRFS
DONT DEVELOP THIS CONVECTION BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZATION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTN.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING CLEARING OUT THE
CONVECTION. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS POST FRONTAL COULD WORK
INTO THE TAFS AFT 06Z. HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE 30 HOUR CVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
140 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND THEN MEANDER
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN A LATE EVENING UPDATE...
ONE 500 MB WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED ON THE RAP MODEL MOVING EAST THRU CENTRAL WV
AT 01Z THIS EVENING TOWARD CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS BETWEEN EKN AND BKW.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN IN ITS WAKE...BEFORE NEXT VORT MAX APPROACHES
SE OHIO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
WILL STILL TRY TO FORM THE THICKER FOG CKB-CRW-EKN ON DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELD VALLEYS...THOUGH DURATION ONLY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS.
STILL IMPRESSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UP THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TO FEED DEVELOPMENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THE EXISTING/OLDER
CONVECTION THAT WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY.
ANY NEW COMPLEX THAT FORMS AFTER 18Z SHOULD MOVE AT LEAST AT 40 KNOTS.
SO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. DESPITE SPEED...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WETTER THAN NORMAL
LATE JUNE SOIL CONDITIONS THAT EXIST N OF HTS-CRW-SUMMERSVILLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF AN MCS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...THE FRONT
ITSELF LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE MCS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SOUTHERN AREAS VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MCS
DROPS SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT STALLING IN THE FAR SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE POPS THERE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN STRONG
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND TIME FRAME...WILL NOT JUMP ON ANY
WATCHES YET...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.
THE FRONT WILL START BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME ACROSS
SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...BUT QUITE HUMID. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN COOLER AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STILL MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ALSO EXITING...BUT IT WILL FEEL ON
THE COOL SIDE. THE MODELS HAVE YET ANOTHER FRONT COMING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...THIS
PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WERE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
IN ITS WAKE...VFR CONDITIONS WERE COMMON.
EXPECT MVFR VALLEY FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MID DECK CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH FEATURE APPROACHING THE
AREA...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z.
EXPECT ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH E/SE TOWARD THE REGION. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 18Z...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY AFTER 00Z FRI.
EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. TIMING
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY VARY EITHER WAY...FASTER
OR SLOWER.
.AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THAT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IFR AGAIN IN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...FB/JMV
AVIATION...JSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS/FORECASTS.
RADAR IS STILL QUITE QUIET SHOWING AN ELONGATED BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE REGION. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THE
MASSIVE MCS OVER IA/IL WHICH THE HRRR STREAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
SO A NICE COOL LATE JUNE OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS COMING FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY NEAR 50 IN THE CLEARER
NORTH TO AROUND 60 IN THE CLOUDIER SOUTH. NOTHING EXCITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THAT MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW
IMPLIED IN THE MODELS COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MTS AROUND
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS THERE.
THE NEW NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT RESOLUTION MATTERS. IT LIKE THE
HRRR IS SLOWER WITH THE MCS AND RAINFALL THAN THE PREVIOUS SREF.
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PA SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY. BEST CHANCE RAIN BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CLEARLY THE MCS IS IMPACTING OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS MIDNIGHT DISCUSSION ON SREF/RAIN ISSUES:
THE SREF HAS THE SAME AREA AS THE HRRR AND BLOWS IT UP FOR OUR
AFTERNOON RAINFALL IN WEST/SW PA. EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT WILL TIME
IN BETTER WITH THE MCS REMNANTS IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MODELS FITS AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS SUGGEST A GOOD 0.2 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SO COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE WET SREF HAS NICE SWATH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY IN S-CENTRAL PA.
THE GEFS IS NOT AS ROBUST AND IS 3 HOURS OLDER. IT DOES NOT HAVE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS MORE IN THE 0.2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE
EVENT. THIS IS CONVECTIVE INTERACTION ISSUE. SO WE ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IN ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS THE HRRR AND ITS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING PHYSICS
MAY HELP CLARIFY THE RAINFALL ISSUES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN EVENT...FOR THE WEEKEND IS EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. ONE
GEFS RUN HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS IN PA...MORE RECENT RUN SHIFTED ALL
THAT OVER LAKE ERIE. ITS SUMMER AND CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATIONS WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WITH 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA.
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FOG POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AROUND
SUNRISE...VAST MAJORITY OF CWA WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
LARGE MCS OVER UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO PA AFTER SUNRISE. THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TODAY...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
NUMEROUS GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE SW MTNS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. BETTER
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SOUTHERN TAFS WILL BRING BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR SCT TSTMS. CIGS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO MVFR AT KJST-KAOO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTHERN HALF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS.
SAT...WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND ISO TSTMS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE
PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS/FORECASTS.
RADAR IS STILL QUITE QUIET SHOWING AN ELONGATED BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE REGION. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THE
MASSIVE MCS OVER IA/IL WHICH THE HRRR STREAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
SO A NICE COOL LATE JUNE OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS COMING FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY NEAR 50 IN THE CLEARER
NORTH TO AROUND 60 IN THE CLOUDIER SOUTH. NOTHING EXCITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THAT MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW
IMPLIED IN THE MODELS COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MTS AROUND
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS THERE.
THE NEW NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT RESOLUTION MATTERS. IT LIKE THE
HRRR IS SLOWER WITH THE MCS AND RAINFALL THAN THE PREVIOUS SREF.
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PA SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY. BEST CHANCE RAIN BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CLEARLY THE MCS IS IMPACTING OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS MIDNIGHT DISCUSSION ON SREF/RAIN ISSUES:
THE SREF HAS THE SAME AREA AS THE HRRR AND BLOWS IT UP FOR OUR
AFTERNOON RAINFALL IN WEST/SW PA. EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT WILL TIME
IN BETTER WITH THE MCS REMNANTS IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MODELS FITS AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS SUGGEST A GOOD 0.2 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SO COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE WET SREF HAS NICE SWATH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY IN S-CENTRAL PA.
THE GEFS IS NOT AS ROBUST AND IS 3 HOURS OLDER. IT DOES NOT HAVE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS MORE IN THE 0.2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE
EVENT. THIS IS CONVECTIVE INTERACTION ISSUE. SO WE ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IN ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS THE HRRR AND ITS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING PHYSICS
MAY HELP CLARIFY THE RAINFALL ISSUES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN EVENT...FOR THE WEEKEND IS EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. ONE
GEFS RUN HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS IN PA...MORE RECENT RUN SHIFTED ALL
THAT OVER LAKE ERIE. ITS SUMMER AND CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATIONS WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
03Z TAFS WILL GO OUT SHORTLY.
NO LARGE CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS PACKAGE.
DID BACK OFF FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HARD TO SEE
MUCH...GIVEN RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JUNE. WHILE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL...DEWPOINTS COME DOWN SOME TOO.
THU MORNING LOOKS OK.
DID BRING IN SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THU AFT...GIVEN
SE FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MOVING EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1226 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY...A UNSETTLED
AND WET PATTERN DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS/FORECASTS.
RADAR QUITE QUIET SHOWING A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE
REGION. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THE MASSIVE MCS OVER IA/IL WHICH THE
HRRR STREAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
SO A NICE COOL LATE JUNE OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS COMING FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. NOTHING EXCITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THAT MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW
IMPLIED IN THE MODELS COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MTS AROUND
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS THERE.
THE SREF HAS THE SAME AREA AS THE HRRR AND BLOWS IT UP FOR OUR
AFTERNOON RAINFALL IN WEST/SW PA. EXPECT THE MAIN EVENT WILL TIME
IN BETTER WITH THE MCS REMNANTS IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MODELS FITS AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS SUGGEST A GOOD 0.2 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SO COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE WET SREF HAS NICE SWATH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY IN S-CENTRAL PA.
THE GEFS IS NOT AS ROBUST AND IS 3 HOURS OLDER. IT DOES NOT HAVE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS MORE IN THE 0.2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE
EVENT. THIS IS CONVECTIVE INTERACTION ISSUE. SO WE ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IN ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS THE HRRR AND ITS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING PHYSICS
MAY HELP CLARIFY THE RAINFALL ISSUES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN EVENT...FOR THE WEEKEND IS EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. ONE
GEFS RUN HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS IN PA...MORE RECENT RUN SHIFTED ALL
THAT OVER LAKE ERIE. ITS SUMMER AND CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATIONS WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
03Z TAFS WILL GO OUT SHORTLY.
NO LARGE CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS PACKAGE.
DID BACK OFF FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HARD TO SEE
MUCH...GIVEN RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS FOR LATE JUNE. WHILE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL...DEWPOINTS COME DOWN SOME TOO.
THU MORNING LOOKS OK.
DID BRING IN SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THU AFT...GIVEN
SE FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK LOW MOVING EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AT THIS TIME...WE/LL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF -SHRA AT KDRT AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
INTO VFR AFTER 16Z FOR MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION ACROSS
THE I-35 SITES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
UPDATE... /SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADDED TO WEST TONIGHT/
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS AND THE LATEST NAM SHOW A HIGH PWAT AREA OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WITH A FEW CELLS FORMING OVER KINNEY
AND UVALDE COUNTIES TO REINFORCE THIS SCENARIO....WILL GO AHEAD
AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. A
SMALL AREA OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS WAS SLIPPED INTO THE UPDATE FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS I35. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BE
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. CLOUDY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN UNUSUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PW IS FORECAST TO BE 2.0-2.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST DIGGING A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 73 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 - 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 73 90 73 91 / - 0 0 - 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 73 91 / - - 0 - 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 91 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 91 72 92 / - 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 90 73 91 / - 0 - - 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 74 91 / 20 - - - 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 90 74 91 / - 0 - - 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 92 / 10 0 0 - 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL. ONE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
25.00Z GFS/NAM AND 25.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/HRRR SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE
DEEPER FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
AREA.
WEAK SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HAVE ADVANCED
TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THE 25.03Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE
ACROSS KLSE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF A LOWER VFR
CEILING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING JUST SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO START TO WORK IN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WILL HIT THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITHIN THIS FLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TIED TO SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA WHILE THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MN/UPPER MI WAS
TIED MORE TO CONVERGENCE OF LAKE BREEZE FRONT. OUR AREA WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...HIGH AND DRY FOR NOW. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MCV ACROSS IA
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS THEN SHOW RETURN
850MB FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO...NORTHWARD NEAR I-80. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO
REGENERATE A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...POSSIBLE GRAZING OUR NORTHEAST IA COUNTIES. LATEST WRF
RUNS KEEP CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE COARSER DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION REACHING INTO NORTHEAST
IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN
FAYETTE/CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHER GRANT
COUNTY IN WI...TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. HIGHER CAPE AXIS STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE IN CASE
THE WARM FRONT/CAPE POOL SURGES FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
NOT MUCH WORKING FOR IT OTHER THAN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR TRIGGER. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
WRF MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR PUMPING DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF CUMULUS...BUT
ANY SHOWER/THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN WI/U.P. IN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ACROSS MN INTO IA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE. THIS LOOKS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WILL STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY DOMINATED WITH DECENT CUMULUS FIELD WITH HIGHS
ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK IS DOMINATED WITH MUDDLED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY. AS A
RESULT...PLAN ON PERIODIC ON/OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS HAVE ADVANCED
TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THE 25.03Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE
ACROSS KLSE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF A LOWER VFR
CEILING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING JUST SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO START TO WORK IN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WILL HIT THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015
RIVERS ARE RECEDING. SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ALONG THE CEDAR
RIVER AT CHARLES CITY...BUT THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
847 AM MST THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL
GENERATE STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING STORMS
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS PER THE LATEST 12Z KTWC SOUNDING/REGIONAL GPS
DATA WITH PWAT VALUES AVERAGING ABOUT 1.3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING IS ALSO DEPICTING FAVORABLE
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z UOFA WRF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTY...PERHAPS AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SONORA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WHITE AND THE
GILA MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THAT PUSH TO THE WEST AS WELL DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
EVENT TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF ADVANCE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR OUR
HIGHER RISK DUST CORRIDORS IN PINAL/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DUST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
TODAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT WITH QUICKER STORM MOTIONS THAT
WILL KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS IN CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
UPDATES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
OVC CLOUD DECK ABV 10K FT AGL WEST OF KTUS WILL BE CLEARING THRU
25/17Z. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS DEVELOPING BY
25/19Z BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND MOVING WNW THRU 26/03Z. SOME TSRA
COULD HAVE GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SE WINDS BECOMING
NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SE AZ. FRIDAY MAY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY BUT THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
942 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HEAT TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -9 TO -10 THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER
RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. WE
HAVE CHANCE POPS FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DISPLAYED BY THE HRRR AND AWR. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES VERY HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 100 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
STARTING LATE FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED
LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY THEN LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA OR AT LEAST MOVE INTO THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR MONDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY REBOUND TO THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -9 TO -10 THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER
RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR AND AWR DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO
FORECAST IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY: JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
CAUSE AN STRONG SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CAUSING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE
UNSEASONABLY COON CONDITIONS.
IN THE LONG TERM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BY
SUNDAY. BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVE OUR WAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
RADAR TRENDS SHOW TSRA DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND EXITING CENTRAL
INDIANA TO THE EAST. IR IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS. WARM AND
MOIST SERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM...OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. THUS WILL TREND POPS BACK HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE EXPECTED BOUNDARIES WILL BE LINGERING FROM
EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR AGREES THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DEFINITE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS MODELS DEVELOP STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOME MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...BUT A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED IN KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FROM FRIDAY ON AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AS LOW AS +10 CELSIUS ACROSS OUR NORTH. MODELS
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
APPEARS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE ANOTHER MAY PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TO COVER THESE POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA...AIDED BY A
45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 251600Z BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING
WINDS TO ABOUT 25 KTS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 012-015 DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AS THE COMPLEX MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND HOW FAST
AIR MASS INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY LENDS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS LATER TODAY.
CB BASES 020-040.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION...BUT EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO 220-250 DEGREES
AT 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND THE NMM AND ARW WRF REALLY KILL
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF IT AS IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHEAST. WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
EAST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE FROM 12Z-
17Z JUST IN CASE IT DOES SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN THE CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS WILL PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...EITHER AS AN OUTFLOW OR THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT...BY MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FIGURE ON A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DECENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A REALLY JUICY AIRMASS AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS OUR MID-SECTION LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SPARSE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN IT MAY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT TO
THE AR/TN BORDER AREAS...IF CONVECTION IS NOT ONGOING AND RE-
ENFORCING IT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA REGARDLESS
OF WHERE IT ENDS UP TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.
THE BEST ADVICE I HAVE IS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SEE WHERE WE ARE FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
MODELS DO AGREE ON A RAPID DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FIGURE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 AREAWIDE. WILL WRITE
ONE MORE SPS FOR THIS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT. WITH THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100. SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GIVEN THE RATHER MARGINAL PERFORMANCE OF A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE 12Z WEDNESDAY/00Z THURSDAY MODEL CYCLES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID
INITIALIZE BETTER AND WERE AT LEAST USED A FRAMEWORK TOWARD THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SEMI-
PERMANENT CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
EXISTENCE AND ORIENTATION OF THE POP FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS OWED TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT
OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PLAY HAVOC IN THE GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR VARIATIONS IN POP
ASSESSMENT FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE COVERAGE AREAS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, ANY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINOR.
THE LOW TO HIGH END RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
EXPERIENCING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE PATTERN
FEATURES. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACT EARLY ON TO DEPICT ANY
DEVIATIONS TO THE MEAN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STATIC UPPER AIR FIELDS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WINDS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF KEVV
WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD AND PASS BY WITHOUT IMPACTING
KEVV OR KOWB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A VCSH
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS JUST IN CASE SOMETHING POPS UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING...WITH
SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY IMPACT KEVV AND KOWB LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HANDLED IT WITH A PROB30 FOR
NOW...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED IF THE TSRA IS A PREVAILING CONDITION
FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION REACH KEVV AND KOWB
TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
857 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RETURN FLO OF MOISTURE BEGINNING THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN VRB
CLDNS/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE FA AND EVEN ISOLD SHRAS
FM RIC ON SSW. WK WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL BE SLOLY LIFTING NNE ACRS
THE FA REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS PSBL...MNLY
THIS AFTN...DUE TO INCRSD (THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY. WATCHING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY SO FAR THIS MRNG.
BOTH 06Z/25 NAM AND LATEST HRRR REF KEYING ON REMNANT S/W TRACKING
SE INTO THE FA LATER TDA...KICKING OFF AN AREA OF STRONG/PSBLY
SVR TSTMS (MOST LIKELY AFT 22-23Z/25) WHICH MOVES FM CNTRL VA TO
THE ESE THROUGH REST OF THE EVE HRS. DAMAGING WNDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE INCRG PWATS...LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
ARE PSBL. HI TEMPS FM THE L80S NR THE CST TO 85-90F ELSW.
ANY CONVECTION TO WANE BY/AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LO
TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRS MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA COAST FRI MORN. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT
STALLS ACROSS SRN VA DRNG THE AFTRN AND ONLY DRIFT TO NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER FRI NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
THRU 00Z SAT. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT LCTN IS.
SRN AREAS WILL STILL BE IN WRM SECTOR ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA
90 GIVEN PRTL SUNSHINE WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NITE INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD
AND WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTAB WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET PRD WITH WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY RNFL.
1-2 INCH QPF PSBL. ANTHR TRICKY TMP FCST ALL BASED ON TRIPLE PT
LOW TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY STAY IN WRM SCTR ALLOWING
READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S WHILE NR AREAS REMAIN ARND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT NORMAL ON AVG HOWEVER. FOR SAT NIGHT...SFC LO PRES PULLS
N/NE OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS
(POPS RANGE FM 50% SW TO 60-70% NE). CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES TO
ONLY CSTL AREAS SUN AS THE UPR-TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC AND THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT. DRY CONDS CONTINUE INTO
MON...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUE
(20% POPS) AND WED (30% POPS) AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W.
HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY RANGE THRU THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE
FLOW TURNS LIGHT SE OR S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MD
LATER TODAY COULD PRODUCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.
ATTM...HAVE LEFT ALL TAFS DRY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT... WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SLY/SELY FLOW
TO DEVELOP...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY THE AFTN HOURS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT (PRIMARILY IN GUSTS TO
20 KT) OVER THE BAY/SOUND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE AREA ON FRI.
HOWEVER...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA ATTM. SW WINDS
10-15 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NE-E FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SE THEN S ON SATURDAY...THEN SW SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRI
AFTN/EVE ON THE CHES BAY POST-FRONTAL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAY
REACH 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
855 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RETURN FLO OF MOISTURE BEGINNING THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN VRB
CLDNS/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE FA AND EVEN ISOLD SHRAS
FM RIC ON SSW. WK WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL BE SLOLY LIFTING NNE ACRS
THE FA REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS PSBL...MNLY
THIS AFTN...DUE TO INCRSD (THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY. WATCHING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY SO FAR THIS MRNG.
BOTH 06Z/25 NAM AND LATEST HRRR REF KEYING ON REMNANT S/W TRACKING
SE INTO THE FA LATER TDA...PTNTLLY KICKING OFF AN AREA OF
STRONG/PSBLY SVR TSTMS (MOST LIKELY AFT 22-23Z/25) WHICH MOVES FM
CNTRL VA TO THE ESE THROUGH REST OF THE EVE HRS. DAMAGING WNDS THE
MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE INCRG PWATS...LCLLY HVY
DOWNPOURS ARE PSBL. HI TEMPS FM THE L80S NR THE CST TO 85-90F
ELSW.
ANY CONVECTION TO WANE BY/AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LO
TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRS MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA COAST FRI MORN. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT
STALLS ACROSS SRN VA DRNG THE AFTRN AND ONLY DRIFT TO NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER FRI NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
THRU 00Z SAT. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT LCTN IS.
SRN AREAS WILL STILL BE IN WRM SECTOR ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA
90 GIVEN PRTL SUNSHINE WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NITE INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD
AND WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTAB WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET PRD WITH WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY RNFL.
1-2 INCH QPF PSBL. ANTHR TRICKY TMP FCST ALL BASED ON TRIPLE PT
LOW TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY STAY IN WRM SCTR ALLOWING
READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S WHILE NR AREAS REMAIN ARND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT NORMAL ON AVG HOWEVER. FOR SAT NIGHT...SFC LO PRES PULLS
N/NE OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS
(POPS RANGE FM 50% SW TO 60-70% NE). CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES TO
ONLY CSTL AREAS SUN AS THE UPR-TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC AND THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT. DRY CONDS CONTINUE INTO
MON...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUE
(20% POPS) AND WED (30% POPS) AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W.
HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY RANGE THRU THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE
FLOW TURNS LIGHT SE OR S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MD
LATER TODAY COULD PRODUCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.
ATTM...HAVE LEFT ALL TAFS DRY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT... WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SLY/SELY FLOW
TO DEVELOP...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY THE AFTN HOURS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT (PRIMARILY IN GUSTS TO
20 KT) OVER THE BAY/SOUND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE AREA ON FRI.
HOWEVER...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA ATTM. SW WINDS
10-15 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NE-E FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SE THEN S ON SATURDAY...THEN SW SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRI
AFTN/EVE ON THE CHES BAY POST-FRONTAL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAY
REACH 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING...SOME OF THE RAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERNMOST ZONES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE
MESOANALYSIS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS
ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH THROUGH MIDDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE
FIELD BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY CWA.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT WITH MID-
LEVEL/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP. REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM THE MCS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. TO THE
SOUTH...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT JUICIER...QUESTIONS
LINGER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY AND SHEAR. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...I THINK THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
REACHES OF MY CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCE
POPS ARE INTRODUCED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO AN ENHANCING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE HAS LED TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED
AND AGREED UPON BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE DURATION OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH CLOUD COVER AND SO MUCH WARM AIR
ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA. A PUSH OF
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE JUNE WILL SWING IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SETUP A SITUATION
WHERE HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL TRAVERSE THE SITES SOUTH OF
I-80 THIS MORNING...BRINGING MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AS
THE BETTER CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT ZZV HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
THE ADDITIONAL TSRA WORDING...GOING WITH MAINLY RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE.
ONCE SHOWERS TRANSITION TO THE EAST...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND QUICK DECOUPLING IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WHERE IT RAINS THE MOST.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
723 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Shortwave will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night and the
surface front will sweep through the area finally bringing an end
to the rain. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in good agreement with
ending the precip across the area between 03-09Z Saturday (with
perhaps some lingering sprinkles as a vortmax or two moves across
the area). Saturday and Sunday still look cool and dry for the
most part...although guidance is now printing out some very light
QPF each afternoon as a couple of more shortwaves move across the
area into the base of the longwave trof. Gut feeling is that there
won`t be enough low level moisture to fuel precipitation, but it`s
something to keep an eye on. More substantial chances for
precipitation develop Sunday night as the low level jet turns back
to the southwest ahead of a clipper-type low allowing moisture
back in from the southeastern Plains. The trof over the eastern
CONUS remains entrenched through the medium range which hints a
temperatures near or a bit below normal into next week and
continuing chances for precipitation as shortwaves move across the
area in the northwest flow aloft.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 720 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Intense convection that formed on the southwest periphery of the
overnight MCS and pounded parts of northeast MO has weakened
considerably over the past few hours. Only remaining active
elements are in a narrow W-E band from just SW of KUIN to near
MBY, and associated with the remnants of noctural low level jet.
Believe that this band will be dropping southeast at bit over the
next few hours while intensity diminishes with the weakening of
low level jet. Have included VCTS at both KCOU and STL Metro
TAFs for a few hours, but believe main corridor of activity will remain
north of I-70, with almost all of the convection diminishing in
the 15-16z time frame. Outside of the convection, VFR cigs aoa
4kft are expected through mid morning, and by afternoon have gone
with a warm sector "look" to TAF conditions, with scattered high-
based CU and gusty SW winds after morning outflow boundary erodes.
Storm threat should ramp up again late this afternoon near KUIN in
the vicnity of the cold front...with convection becoming much more
widespread during the overnight hours as low level jet once again
intensifies ahead of shortwave dropping through mid-Missouri
Valley. Obviously timing is a very rough first guess at this
point, but did try to emphasize more widespread/robust convection
when forcing of low level jet should be the greatest...primarily
after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect cigs in the 4-5kft range through mid
morning, with VCTS specified for several hours as the band of
convection currently over mid MO works a bit south and weakens.
Outflow boundary...which has worked its way into eastern Ozarks
and southern Illinois...should erode by mid morning, and set the
stage for fairly gust southwest winds by afternon, along with
scattered hi-based CU. Additional storms likely tonight, expecially
after 06z.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 74 79 65 / 50 60 70 60
Quincy 87 68 74 61 / 80 60 70 30
Columbia 93 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 80 63 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 72 79 65 / 50 60 70 70
Farmington 95 71 82 63 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox
MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
945 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR TRENDS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS REMAINS LOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HRRR PAINTS
THIS AS A STATUS QUO FOR A FEW HOURS. BIGGER QUESTION FOR THE DAY
IS WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
SOME HEATING. BELIEVE THAT POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAILING
THIS MORNINGS WAVE MEANS CLOUD COVER NEVER FULLY GOES AWAY AND A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED CAPPING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD
TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED
TO DISCRETE STORMS GETTING STRONG. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
03Z SREF WHICH IS SHIFTING PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH
OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCED BY A
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TREND ALSO
SUPPORTS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WITH WESTERN SECTIONS BEING A BIT WARMER DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE.
MOISTURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER WESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 90
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY SKIES. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A VERY HOT WEEKEND AND EARLY
WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME INDICATIONS OF
HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY IN SEVERAL LOCATION.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE PERSISTS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED UP
INTO THE SYSTEM...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ADDED POPS TO THE
FORECAST...KEPT QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE OF ENERGY
HELP PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...GIVING US A BREAK FROM
THE THE EXTREME HEAT. THAT SAID...TEMPS WILL STILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SEEMS TO GREATLY LIMIT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT. LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT VFR WEATHER
WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER 00 UTC. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 059/090 062/094 063/097 066/100 069/093 064/088
2/T 10/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
LVM 083 051/091 053/096 056/099 057/100 058/092 054/090
2/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/B
HDN 084 058/091 060/096 063/099 065/101 067/094 064/090
3/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 11/U
MLS 082 058/088 061/093 063/096 064/097 066/092 063/087
3/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 11/U
4BQ 079 056/085 058/091 061/093 062/096 065/092 062/086
6/T 31/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B 11/U
BHK 078 055/084 058/090 059/090 060/091 063/087 061/082
5/T 31/B 10/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 11/B
SHR 077 053/084 054/088 057/091 058/093 060/090 059/085
5/T 21/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...THEN A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. THEN AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA AT 1130Z.
ANALYSIS OF THE 06Z H5/7 HGT FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE OUR AREA WILL
NOT PICK UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM...THE
SYSTEMS EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA AND THICKEN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL NOT BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE TO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
JET INDUCED LIFT UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A 100KT JET OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A NUISANCE SHOWER OVER
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND GENESEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. PARTS
OF THE NORMALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY COULD TICKLE 80.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH THE GREAT EAST IMPROVEMENT COMING NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT
TO SEA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SPREADS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD YIELD A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY TO START OFF THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +9C TO +12C LARGELY YIELDING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...WHERE THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER.
AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL GO MARKEDLY DOWNHILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF
THIS TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ON ITS EASTERN
FLANK...AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UNDER THIS REGIME...OUR WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WET
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RESULTING LOWER/UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ACT TO PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT
GENERATED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT/VERY EARLY SATURDAY... BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION BETWEEN THE REST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WHILE
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION IN CONCERT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
LEVEL JET...HOWEVER LIGHTER RAINS SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS SET UP AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND AS THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION ALOFT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL NOT REALLY BEGIN
TO DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FINALLY
PROGGED TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA.
WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE RETAINED OUR CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM CONTINUITY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK TO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OWING TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OF A
GENERAL NORTHERLY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
CORE OF THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE
COLLECTIVELY SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE AS MUCH AS ONE AND
A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COURSE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE BULK OF THIS LIKELY FALLING OVER A
36-48 HOUR PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND REMAINING NON-
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA...UNLESS THE BULK OF THE RAIN
ULTIMATELY FALLS WITHIN A SUBSTANTIALLY SHORTER TIME FRAME THAN
THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WITH YET ANOTHER /ALBEIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON OUR REGION AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR...VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THOUGH...AS MAINLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE MID WEST. THIS CLOUD COVER COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY
THINNING OUT FROM THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THIN ACROSS THE SRN TIER THOUGH...THEY SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LK ONTARIO)...BUT MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...CHURCH/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
712 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KRDU. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND BACK TO KGSO AND KINT AND POSSIBLY MOVE
INTO KRWI AND KFAY LATER THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
IN THE 17Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. THUS... HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI TAF FOR NOW.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR SHOWING CIN ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTN. SHEAR TODAY IS WEAK...WITH THE
STRONGEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AT AROUND 35 KTS. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE MID AFTN CONVECTION STARTING AND
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WESTERN ZONES UNTIL 23Z. WE DO HAVE MID 50S
DEW POINTS BUT WILL NEED TIME FOR CIN TO ERODE. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
BE DRY BY AROUND 04Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG IN SPOTS IN NW MN. WEBCAMS SHOWS NEARLY
ALL SITES THOUGH SUNNY SO FOG IS INDEED PATCHY. IT WILL BURN OFF
BEFORE 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ENOUGH SFC HEATING OF THE DAY TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TO FORM CUMULUS IN THE AFTN. WILL NOT HAVE
THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT MU CAPES NR 1000
J/KG (MAINLY IN NW MN) SHOULD GENERATE A COUPLE OF STORMS. BEST
CHC IS IN NW MN WHERE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
AFTN-EVE. ANOTHER AREA IS MORE WRN-S CNTRL ND. PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH NW MN APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SUMMER BLAH PATTERN IS NOW HERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG IT...MORE SO IN
NRN RRV INTO NW MN CLOSER TO 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MU
CAPES (1500 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR (40-55 KTS) HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD STRONG OR SVR STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
SPC DAY 3 HAS AREA IN MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER WAVE
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GROUND FOG PRESENT AT FARGO AND BEMIDJI AIRPORTS. AS USUAL TIMING
OF IMPROVEMENT IS CHALLENGING...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND FROM THE
FACT IT IS SHALLOW AND PATCHY DO EXPECT FAST IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
12Z-14Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE A FEW CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH CUMULUS
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ALL DAY. ISOLD TSTM PSBL THIS AFTN/EVE WITH
BEST CHC IN NW MN. BUT COVERAGE AND CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN A
SPECIFIC TAF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
936 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THAT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK TO OHIO AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS IS CONTINUING TO WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF SOME BETTER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MUCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF A BIT LONGER AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TO
REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS IS ABLE TO
DISSIPATE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE THE RAP IS TRYING TO
REDEVELOP 1000-2000 J/KG ML CAPES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PCPN THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HRRR/ARW. WILL THEN NUDGE POPS BACK UP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS BUT AM HESITANT TO
LOWER THEM TOO MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM. A LEADING EDGE OF WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS
OVER KENTUCKY AS THEY PASS SOUTHWARD FROM OHIO AND INDIANA. EAST
WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WILL DRY OUT THE REGION FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD...UNTIL RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF A STEADY NATURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO OHIO EARLY
SATURDAY. LARGEST THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID STRENGTHENING AS IT SPINS
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE SAME TIME...HELPING TO PULL THE
SURFACE SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AND THEN TO STALL IT OUT OVER
NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND AN INFILTRATION OF COLDER AIR FRONT THESE
ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WILL ONLY PERMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EVEN AS READINGS RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO LOW 80S IN KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S THURS AND FRI NIGHT...UNTIL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ON THE
BACK END OF THESE SYSTEMS PULLS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO
THE FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS SLOWING WORKING TOWARDS THE TAFS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND
AFFECT THE TAFS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
FROM THE STORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS IN
SOME OF THE STORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THRU THE TAFS.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECHARGE. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
DONT DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. WILL KEEP VCTS IN
THE TAFS FOR THE AFTN.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING CLEARING OUT THE
CONVECTION. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS POST FRONTAL COULD WORK
INTO THE TAFS AFT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS WITH NEWER DATA AND PULLED
INTO LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT MAINLY IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOW. SOME OF THIS IS THE HIGHER THIN STUFF COMING OFF
THE MASSIVE MCS OVER INDIANA WITH A MASSIVE COLD CLOUD SHIELD FROM
WESTERN OHIO BACK INTO ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.
THIS MCS WILL DOMINATE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HRRR TRIGGERS SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAS SOME RENEGADE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. TRIED TO SHOW
HIGHEST POPS/THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 08Z HRRR HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW AFTER 16Z AND BODILY
BRINGS IN THE REMENANTS ABOUT 20Z IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS REACHING
HARRISBURG IN THE EVENING LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR
JUST AFTER. THE HRRR RADAR IS MORE ROBUST IN APPEARANCE THAN THE
QPF. ACCUMULATING QPF IS LIGHT THROUGH 22Z.
THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND THIS MCS.
SUFFICE TO SAY MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE TODAY. CIRRUS FROM THE MCS WILL BE THE BEST MOST WILL DO. IN
THE SOUTHWEST RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS NEAR DINNER TIME IN THE YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. HRRR IMPLIES TIMING
OF RAIN BEST IN SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT NOT A STRONG SIGNAL.
LINGERING SHOWER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY AS RAIN DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEMS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. POPS WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1020MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CEDE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT 12Z WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCALES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES /FOLLOWING PATH
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TOWARD
THE MASON/DIXON LINE/...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. LARGE MCS OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A
SIG IMPACT ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIP OVER PA LATER TODAY...WITH
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGING NUMEROUS GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
THE SW MTNS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE LATE TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH AND WEST OF KJST
WILL BRING BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SCT TSTMS...SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER IN TAFS. CIGS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO MVFR AT KJST-KAOO BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTHERN HALF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS.
SAT...WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND ISO TSTMS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
618 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS WITH NEWER DATA AND PULLED
INTO LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT MAINLY IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOW. SOME OF THIS IS THE HIGHER THIN STUFF COMING OFF
THE MASSIVE MCS OVER INDIANA WITH A MASSIVE COLD CLOUD SHIELD FROM
WESTERN OHIO BACK INTO ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.
THIS MCS WILL DOMINATE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HRRR TRIGGERS SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAS SOME RENEGADE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. TRIED TO SHOW
HIGHEST POPS/THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 08Z HRRR HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW AFTER 16Z AND BODILY
BRINGS IN THE REMENANTS ABOUT 20Z IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS REACHING
HARRISBURG IN THE EVENING LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR
JUST AFTER. THE HRRR RADAR IS MORE ROBUST IN APPEARANCE THAN THE
QPF. ACCUMULATING QPF IS LIGHT THROUGH 22Z.
THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND THIS MCS.
SUFFICE TO SAY MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE TODAY. CIRRUS FROM THE MCS WILL BE THE BEST MOST WILL DO. IN
THE SOUTHWEST RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS NEAR DINNER TIME IN THE YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MCS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STILL ON THE HRRR SIMULATIONS
CROSSING W-CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY ABOUT MIDDAY. HRRR IMPLIES TIMING
OF RAIN BEST IN SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT NOT A STRONG SIGNAL.
LINGERING SHOWER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY AS RAIN DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEMS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. POPS WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE** ??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES
ROTATING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY INFLUENCE TIMING AND
SPEED OF TWO COLD FRONTS FCST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HOT PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WITH 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA.
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FOG POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AROUND
SUNRISE...VAST MAJORITY OF CWA WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
LARGE MCS OVER UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO PA AFTER SUNRISE. THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TODAY...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
NUMEROUS GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE SW MTNS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. BETTER
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SOUTHERN TAFS WILL BRING BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR SCT TSTMS. CIGS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO MVFR AT KJST-KAOO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTHERN HALF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS.
SAT...WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND ISO TSTMS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF. SCT SHOWERS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN DROP BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND HELP TREND
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY
WITH HEAVY RAIN....ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...
CHALLENGING FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY
KEEPING AN EYE ON A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAKING ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WHILE CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST...ALSO NOTICING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS PUTTING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL ALSO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND RAP ARE INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE
WESTERN RIDGES...HOWEVER EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BREAK UP AS IT
PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ENCOUNTERS DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER SUNSET...
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON THE ABOVE THINKING.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ATTEMPT TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH A FAINT WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MAY INITIALLY HAVE A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SE EARLY ON
WHERE RETURN FLOW COMBINES WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AS
DEPICTED BY MOST SOLUTIONS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE UPSTREAM MIDWEST
MCS AS IT APPROACHES AND LIKELY LAYS DOWN AN OUTFLOW ACROSS THE NW LATE
WHILE THE REMNANT WAVE STARTS TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER PWATS OUT EAST.
ALTHOUGH FOR NOW APPEARS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE INDUCED WAVE WILL STAY
TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SW
WITH A VOID OVER THE WEST PER DEEPER WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. TIMING OF
THIS A BIT TRICKY AS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COME TOGETHER UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH/EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. ANY SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL UNTIL LATE GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND FOCUS
BUT WITH A BOUNDARY CROSSING SOME ISOLATED THREAT LOOKS IN STORE
MAINLY EAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY.
OTRW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO REBOUND TODAY PER 85H TEMPS RISING BACK
TO NEAR 22C UNDER WEST/SW FLOW. HOWEVER THIS MAY BE CURTAILED SOME
OVER THE NORTH/WEST PER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LATER SHRA FROM THE
UPSTREAM MCS. THUS KEPT VALUES ON THE LOW END OF MOS WEST WHILE
TAKING HIGHS OUT EAST BACK TO THE LOW 90S WHERE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN.
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER CONVECTION MAY COME THIS EVENING AS THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW SLIDES THROUGH THE FAR WEST AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE PASSING
WAVE. MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ENOUGH
LEFTOVER INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BANDS OVER THE
NW AND A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NE WITH THE IMPULSE. THUS HAVE BUMPED
COVERAGE TO A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG I-64 AND
POINTS EAST TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. IN BETWEEN...EXPECT WESTERLY
FLOW TO AGAIN INHIBIT COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WITH MOSTLY 20/30 POPS
PENDING HOW FAST STORMS WEAKEN AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY CAN CROSS THE
WESTERN RIDGES. LOWS BACK TO THE WARM/MUGGY REGIME WITH A RANGE OF 65-
72 OVERALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING...LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...HUMID BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEING IN BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A LEE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
PIEDMONT AND DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SINCE
SPOTTY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...RAISED FRIDAY AFTERNOON`S HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
A STRONG SURFACE WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL SHORT WAVES WILL BRING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL HIT THE WESTERN SLOPES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARS THE PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BRINGS CONCERNS
OF FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY. MODELS VARY ON PWATS BUT CLOSE TO 2SD.
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST GUESS
AMOUNTS ARE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF /1.5/ FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE OUT MORE ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALSO
WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...MORNING SHOWERS AND CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS. IF SKIES MANAGE TO BREAK AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATION
(CURRENTLY FORECASTED TOWARDS NORTHERN VIRGINIA) IS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HEIGHTENED WITH ORGANIZED MULTI-
CELLAR STORMS. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
MORE QUESTIONABLE BUT WILL HAVE LOW TO NO PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF MOVES WARMER AIR BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS BRING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW END VFR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
MIX OUT WITH HEATING. COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA VICINITY
KDAN/KLYH THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW WORKS NORTH FROM EARLIER SHRA
SO INCLUDING A MENTION THERE. OTRW FOG REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO LACK
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE THAT
COULD SPILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS INTO THE VALLEYS AROUND
KLWB/KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING GIVING
WAY TO CU BUILDUPS UNDER CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF 4-6K FT CIGS AT TIMES ACROSS THE
REGION BUT STILL APPEARS MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER SW
FLOW AT 7-15 KTS. AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAKES ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GET SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS GOING...ESPCLY EAST. HOWEVER GIVEN MORE ISOLATED
NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY SHRA/TSRA MENTION
UNTIL AROUND 00Z/8PM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO FORM THURSDAY EVENING MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FADING EARLY FRIDAY AS AN IMPULSE PASSES BY
TO THE NE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BANDS
OF DEEPER CONVECTION COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS WELL ONCE
CONVECTION FADES. GIVEN HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OUT WEST AND OVER THE NE...ADDED IN A VCTS
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB/KLYH THIS EVENING...WITH A PREVAILING MVFR
GROUP IN SHRA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET...BUT APPEARS SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA COULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
AS MUCH OF THE REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HEADING
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MAIN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS
COULD ACT TO BRING LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS BUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCLUDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NW WINDS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MOSTLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
WITH MORE SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/MBS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL. ONE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
25.00Z GFS/NAM AND 25.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/HRRR SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE
DEEPER FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
AREA.
WEAK SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
IFR/MVFR CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS IA/IL WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 26.12Z. SOME
PATCHY FOG/MIST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT AFTERNOON THERMAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL LAYER. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS
WILL BE THE RULE. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN
25.12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS BEGIN TO POP IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO... HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...DO HAVE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HRRR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD FIRE AS FAR NORTH AS
LITTLE ROCK...BUT DO HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE
RAIN. AS A RESULT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND HELP TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY. 12Z WRF
SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z
ON FRIDAY. DO THINK THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...BUT BELIEVE THE WRF IS MUCH TOO QUICK. THEREFORE JUST KEPT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
AMPLE CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL NOT BE
OUTRAGEOUS...BUT DO EXPECT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY WITH DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE SHORT TERM ENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. INITIALLY...BEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT DO THINK SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
EXIST FURTHER SOUTH BY LATE MON INTO TUE WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT.
SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR TUE AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM JUST BELOW
NORMAL...TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE...AND AR IN GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 75 89 64 82 / 10 60 70 10
CAMDEN AR 75 93 74 86 / 20 30 70 30
HARRISON AR 73 86 61 83 / 20 60 70 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 91 73 85 / 10 30 60 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 94 70 85 / 10 30 60 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 93 73 85 / 20 30 70 40
MOUNT IDA AR 73 90 69 84 / 10 30 60 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 87 63 83 / 20 70 70 10
NEWPORT AR 76 90 65 82 / 10 60 70 10
PINE BLUFF AR 75 93 71 84 / 20 30 60 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 91 67 86 / 10 50 70 10
SEARCY AR 74 93 67 84 / 10 50 70 10
STUTTGART AR 75 94 69 84 / 10 30 60 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LARIMER COUNTY AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER OUT WYOMING. A LONG LIVED
MCS....MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
WYOMING AND INTO NEBRASKA ALL DAY....AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HELP KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE HELPING CAPES REACH IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
AND UPWARDS OF 3000 NEAR THE WY/NE BORDER. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 35 KTS TO NEAR 50 KTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. THESE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMBINING TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. BEST AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY
TO LIMON. HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM STORMS...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE OTHER STORM FURTHER WEST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
URBAN CORRIDOR FOR THIS REASON. ACTIVITY UP NEAR CHEYENNE HAS
BEEN PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL TO BECOME THE LONG
ADVERTISED POSSIBLE MCS SYSTEM TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS TO BRING STRATUS AND
SOME FOG OVER THE PLAINS OVER NIGHT. SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLING TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED OVER THE PLAINS UNDER WHAT STRATUS FORMS.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK IN ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE STABLE
STRATUS DECK FIRST...THEN SOME MAY PUSH EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY MORE...THIS MAY
LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE MAIN MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD. THIS PUTS OUR AREA UNDER A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DISCERNIBLE QG
DYNAMICS AFFECTING OUR WEATHER. THIS ALSO KEEPS THE PLAINS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO OCCASIONAL OUTFLOWS AND FRONTAL SURGES FROM
CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE USUAL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE GOING. NWP BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTING SEASONAL VALUES BUT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH WARMER VALUES. WE SHALL SEE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
SWITCH THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AIRPORTS TO A
NORTHERLY PUSH. ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN
THE 01-03Z TIMEFRAME WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NELY WINDS FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ELY BY 03Z. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
FROM OTHER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY STILL SEND BACK
OUTFLOW THAT WILL HELP FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO FOLLOW PROGRESSION OF STORMS AND MODELS TO SEE IF THIS SHOULD
BE ADDED INTO THE TAFS. WILL SEE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IF STRONGER STORMS AFFECT THE AIRPORTS.
EXPECTING STRATUS/FOG TO PUSH IN OVER THE AREA AFTER 09Z. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 09-15Z...THEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY LAST
THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
STORMS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER...WITH A
RELATIVELY WET AIRMASS...COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IF STORMS FIRE IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS...COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN
CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING WET AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 101 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND N-CNTRL VT. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST HAVE HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BTWN 18Z-21Z /2-5
PM/...AND THEN THEY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
21Z-00Z/ 5-8PM/. THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTH MAYBE DELAYED A BIT AS WE
AWAIT FOR THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY TO
BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE POPS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHED ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
OVERNIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS
SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR PORTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
AS THE UPPER WAVE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION SO PT-MOCLDY CONDITIONS FOR THE TERRAIN WITH
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A TRANQUIL END OF
THE DAY. AS THE H850 TEMPS WILL BE BELOW +10C...HIGHS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT COOLER YET YIELD MID 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
MID-UPR 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A
REGION OF INCREASING CONFLUENCE ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
A PTCLDY-MOCLR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND. SO A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY...STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NOVA SCOTIA/NEWFOUNDLAND AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
PHASE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC/FGEN ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN
INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A HIGH ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET />40KTS/ OFF THE ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH HIGHER
PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION /UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS INTO THE CATSKILLS AND COINCIDING DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING
MESOSCALE EFFECTS/.
PER THE EXCELLENT MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION WRITTEN THIS MORNING
FROM WPC...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MAKE FOR A REASONABLE MIDDLE
GROUND...AND SHOW A 2-2.5 SIGMA EVENT FOR LATE JUNE NEAR OH/WV/PA
BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO JUNE 26 1972 (LATE DURING
AGNES` DECAY) BUT OFFSET TO THE WEST. A RARE LATE JUNE WEDGE
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY AS THERE IS AN IN SITU 1020+ HPA HIGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION. A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
FURTHERMORE...WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WOULD NEED TO MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR SATURDAY
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND APPROACHING RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SAT NT-SUN.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR LATE JUNE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ENHANCING
RAIN/SHOWER THREATS. THE LEAD SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE RAIN FOR SAT
NT-SUN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY GIVEN A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE PULLING
NORTHWARD...INCREASING PWAT/S TO 1.75-2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THIS
LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DURATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONFINED TO SAT NT/SUN AM...WHEN THE BEST SURGE OF
WARM ADVECTION/DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS. ASSUMING THIS TIMING
UNFOLDS...THEN A STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY SAT NT INTO SUN AM...BEFORE TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMTS OF
1-2 INCHES APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMTS WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL LATER SUN
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER BREAK COULD OCCUR LATE
WED INTO THU.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BEING MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IF THIS
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR S AND W THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS ONLY REACH THE 60S FOR MAXES...WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY CAN MOVE THROUGH
A BIT QUICKER BEFORE DAY/S END...WARMER MAXES IN THE 70S COULD
OCCUR. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME 70S ARE
INDICATED...AS THIS AREA WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH BEFORE SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL VARY DEPENDING ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY 70S FOR MAXES...AND 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS...IT MAY
BE A BIT HUMID AT TIMES...ESP TUE/TUE NT SHOULD A LOW TRACK JUST
WEST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT ANY
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS
TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS...AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY TALLER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT AT KALB/KPOU...AND
SOUTHERLY AT KGFL/KPOU,,,WILL BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS MAY
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE EAST/NORTHEAST AT KGFL AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS CLOUDS INCREASING TODAY ALONG THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT...RECOVER
TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 75 AND 95 PERCENT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 30 PERCENT TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH OF I90.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THEN BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
HSA WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HSA. THE TRACK AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR. MMEFS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES AT THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN
CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING WET AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 101 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND N-CNTRL VT. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST HAVE HAD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THESE AREAS.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BTWN 18Z-21Z /2-5
PM/...AND THEN THEY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
21Z-00Z/ 5-8PM/. THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTH MAYBE DELAYED A BIT AS WE
AWAIT FOR THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY TO
BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE POPS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHED ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
OVERNIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH H850 TEMPS
SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR PORTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
AS THE UPPER WAVE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION SO PT-MOCLDY CONDITIONS FOR THE TERRAIN WITH
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A TRANQUIL END OF
THE DAY. AS THE H850 TEMPS WILL BE BELOW +10C...HIGHS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT COOLER YET YIELD MID 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
MID-UPR 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A
REGION OF INCREASING CONFLUENCE ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
A PTCLDY-MOCLR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND. SO A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY...STRENGTHEN SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NOVA SCOTIA/NEWFOUNDLAND AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
PHASE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC/FGEN ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN
INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A HIGH ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET />40KTS/ OFF THE ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH HIGHER
PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION /UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS INTO THE CATSKILLS AND COINCIDING DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING
MESOSCALE EFFECTS/.
PER THE EXCELLENT MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION WRITTEN THIS MORNING
FROM WPC...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MAKE FOR A REASONABLE MIDDLE
GROUND...AND SHOW A 2-2.5 SIGMA EVENT FOR LATE JUNE NEAR OH/WV/PA
BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO JUNE 26 1972 (LATE DURING
AGNES` DECAY) BUT OFFSET TO THE WEST. A RARE LATE JUNE WEDGE
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY AS THERE IS AN IN SITU 1020+ HPA HIGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION. A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
FURTHERMORE...WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WOULD NEED TO MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR SATURDAY
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND APPROACHING RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SAT NT-SUN.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR LATE JUNE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ENHANCING
RAIN/SHOWER THREATS. THE LEAD SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE RAIN FOR SAT
NT-SUN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY GIVEN A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE PULLING
NORTHWARD...INCREASING PWAT/S TO 1.75-2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THIS
LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE DURATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONFINED TO SAT NT/SUN AM...WHEN THE BEST SURGE OF
WARM ADVECTION/DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS. ASSUMING THIS TIMING
UNFOLDS...THEN A STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY SAT NT INTO SUN AM...BEFORE TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMTS OF
1-2 INCHES APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMTS WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL LATER SUN
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER BREAK COULD OCCUR LATE
WED INTO THU.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BEING MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IF THIS
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR S AND W THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS ONLY REACH THE 60S FOR MAXES...WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY CAN MOVE THROUGH
A BIT QUICKER BEFORE DAY/S END...WARMER MAXES IN THE 70S COULD
OCCUR. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME 70S ARE
INDICATED...AS THIS AREA WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH BEFORE SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL VARY DEPENDING ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY 70S FOR MAXES...AND 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS...IT MAY
BE A BIT HUMID AT TIMES...ESP TUE/TUE NT SHOULD A LOW TRACK JUST
WEST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN AT KPOU AND KPSF TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS...AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY TALLER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNSET...AND
MAY FORM INTO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN AT KPOU/KPSF LATER TONIGHT. THIS
COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...ESP AFTER 08Z/FRI.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND MAINLY INTO THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE EAST/NORTHEAST AT KGFL AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL TO LOW FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS CLOUDS INCREASING TODAY ALONG THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A SOAKING RAINFALL OCCURS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT...RECOVER
TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 75 AND 95 PERCENT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 30 PERCENT TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH OF I90.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THEN BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
HSA WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. RIGHT NOW...ONE TO UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HSA. THE TRACK AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR. MMEFS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WITHIN BANK RISES AT THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
118 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HEAT TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS DISPLAY HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY
TIME FACTOR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ISOLATED COVERAGE DISPLAYED BY
THE HRRR AND AWR. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SATURDAY AND CLEAR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2.O SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FRIDAY BUT WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90 MONDAY...AND 90 TO 95
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE INTO
THE TROUGH AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND AND HAIL.
THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR AND AWR DISPLAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO FORECAST IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY: JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HEAT TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH AND LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS DISPLAY HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY
TIME FACTOR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ISOLATED COVERAGE DISPLAYED BY
THE HRRR AND AWR. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUST OVER 2 INCHES INDICATES VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
STARTING LATE FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED
LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY THEN LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA OR AT LEAST MOVE INTO THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR MONDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY REBOUND TO THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG WIND AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A
HEAT TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG INTO
THE EVENING. CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE INTO
THE TROUGH AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE SURFACE-BASED LI/S -7 TO -9 THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY THE LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA. LIKE YESTERDAY...
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND AND HAIL.
THE UPPER RIDGING AND A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RECOVERY TIME FACTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR AND AWR DISPLAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO FORECAST IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME.
BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT A GENERAL
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY: JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
357 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON WEAK SHORTWAVE
CUTTING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SET UP IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY SHIFT NORTH ENOUGH TO THE IOWA BORDER
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IS THE FARTHEST
EXTENT NORTH IT WILL REACH. DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MO/IA BORDER WITH STILL A GOOD ATMOSPHERE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM
LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 3500-3800 METER RANGE. FORWARD PROPAGATION
CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST PROVIDING SOME TRAINING
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. THE 25.19Z HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THE
HEAVY CONVECTION IN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. OTHER
CONCERN WAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THUS LOW
IMPACT ON ANY ONGOING FLOODING
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
A MUCH...MUCH QUIETER 7 DAYS AHEAD IN THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP ON HIGH PRESSURE COMING ONSHORE NEAR
THE OREGON COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING THROUGH
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING INTO 12Z AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLIPPING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES IN IA. WITH YESTERDAY/S BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
NORTHERN MO...A LOT OF THE MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY/S SYSTEM STILL
AROUND. MODELS FOCUSING IN ON PWATS BTX 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH
IS AROUND +1 TO +2 STD DEV. GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT AS MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONV PRESENT TO INCREASE LIFT. 0-6KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7 G/KG
WHICH IS DECENT ENOUGH. OVERALL SOUNDING PROFILE MUCH LESS SATURATED
THAN MOST OF THIS WEEK...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE THE MOST
EFFICIENT IN RAIN PRODUCTION.
FRI AFTERNOON TEMPS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C IN OUR EAST AND 14C IN
OUR WEST...ABOUT -1 TO -2 STD DEV. THURSDAY/S 850 MB TEMPS WERE
AROUND 14C NE TO 17C SW. AM EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO BREAK
THROUGH...BUT NOT A LOT...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
FRI AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...0-6KM MUCAPE VALUES BTX 700
AND 1000 J/KG WHICH WHICH IS MINIMAL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
30KTS...ALSO MINIMAL. LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 1000M. OVERALL SOUNDING
PROFILE SUGGESTS ANYTHING THAT FORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED. THUS
OVERALL...AM EXPECTING NIL SVR/TOR THREAT FRI PM AND THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHORT LIVED NON-SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY IN OUR NW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
PROPAGATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NW MINNESOTA INTO SE
MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO THIS AND PUSHING
THROUGH IA DURING THE DAYTIME. THE 12Z GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT PLACES THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR CWA BY 12-15Z SUN.
HAVE MAINLY DISREGARDED THE GFS AND WENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF OTHER
MODELS. PWATS JUMP FROM AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND 0-6KM MUCAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 400 TO 600 J/KG. POSITION OF FRONT DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING IMPORTANT FOR SVR POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW...ALL SIGNS
POINT TO THIS BOUNDARY BEING WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
FOR MONDAY AND THE REST OF THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...PERSISTENCE
BECOMES A GOOD FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL KEEP THE DMX CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEMING INTO THE NEXT
THU/FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME. A HUGE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE RIDGE WILL
STAY TO OUR WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE
AROUND 15C TO OUR EAST AND 18C TO THE WEST. MODELS HINTING AT
THERMAL RIDGE CRASHING DOWN INTO IA SOMETIME LATER IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO POP CHANCES TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALO/DSM/OTM BEFORE
EXPECTING STRATUS TO LIFT BY 20Z-23Z. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT DSM/OTM/FOD AS LOOKS TO SKIRT OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MENTIONING ATTM DUE TO DURATION.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
639 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECT THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SINCE THE CAP IS
NOW BROKEN. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ADJUST T/TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONINGTHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT
THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.
TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AND THEN BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER
04Z TO MOST AREAS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD SHOULD ENSUE INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY/DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTHMENTIONING
THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.
TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AND THEN BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER
04Z TO MOST AREAS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD SHOULD ENSUE INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY/DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE HRRR AND THE NMM AND ARW WRF REALLY KILL
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF IT AS IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IT REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHEAST. WILL SPREAD SMALL CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
EAST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE FROM 12Z-
17Z JUST IN CASE IT DOES SURVIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN THE CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS WILL PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...EITHER AS AN OUTFLOW OR THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT...BY MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FIGURE ON A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DECENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A REALLY JUICY AIRMASS AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS OUR MID-SECTION LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SPARSE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN IT MAY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT TO
THE AR/TN BORDER AREAS...IF CONVECTION IS NOT ONGOING AND RE-
ENFORCING IT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA REGARDLESS
OF WHERE IT ENDS UP TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL.
THE BEST ADVICE I HAVE IS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SEE WHERE WE ARE FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
MODELS DO AGREE ON A RAPID DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FIGURE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 AREAWIDE. WILL WRITE
ONE MORE SPS FOR THIS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT. WITH THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100. SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
GIVEN THE RATHER MARGINAL PERFORMANCE OF A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE 12Z WEDNESDAY/00Z THURSDAY MODEL CYCLES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO AVERAGE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID
INITIALIZE BETTER AND WERE AT LEAST USED A FRAMEWORK TOWARD THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SEMI-
PERMANENT CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
EXISTENCE AND ORIENTATION OF THE POP FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS OWED TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT
OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PLAY HAVOC IN THE GRADIENT OF POPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR VARIATIONS IN POP
ASSESSMENT FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE COVERAGE AREAS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, ANY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINOR.
THE LOW TO HIGH END RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
EXPERIENCING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE PATTERN
FEATURES. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACT EARLY ON TO DEPICT ANY
DEVIATIONS TO THE MEAN FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STATIC UPPER AIR FIELDS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WINDS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KEVV/KOWB
WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN INTO
THIS EVENING. A BRIEF DRY BREAK FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS FROM LAST
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
RECOVERY EXPECTED. THUS...OPTED TO FURTHER CUT BACK ON THE
MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS...WITH
ONLY ABOUT 500J/KG OF MUCAPE SUGGESTED IN THE MESOANALYSIS. SPC
FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE SLIGHT RISK NOW PUSHED SOUTH
OF ALL BUT TUCKER COUNTY.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER INDIANA MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT
A POCKET OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
BACK END OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE...BUT FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE AN OVERALL DRY INTERLUDE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO RISE BACK
NORTHWARD. BEYOND THIS...AN UNUSUALLY POTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
SUMMER WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
BRIEF ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A RAPIDLY
AMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H500 TROUGH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEN AS IT
RIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. H500 CLOSES OFF BY
00Z SUNDAY AND SYSTEM BECOMES SOMEWHAT VERTICALLY STACKED...SLOWING
ITS MOVEMENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FEED WILL PROVIDE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS DEPICT A DRY SLOT
ARRIVING AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH EXTENT AND TIMING
ARE TOUGH TO FIGURE AT THIS DISTANCE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS RIPPLES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW LATER SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY BREAK SHOULD
FINALLY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIPS EAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS DISTANCE LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AND
THEREAFTER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS
PACKAGE...BUT WILL UPDATE HWO WITH WATER CONCERNS.
THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH BY SUNDAY. AFTER SEEING VALUES
BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL SEASONABLE ON FRIDAY...DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE
MUCH TIGHTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. H850 TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGIC
MINIMUMS COULD BE CHALLENGED ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA. A PUSH OF
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE JUNE WILL SWING IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SETUP A SITUATION
WHERE HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AS
THE BETTER CONVECTION GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE.
WHILE NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR THIS EVE
AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH AN IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER MOST OF THE SITES FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PUSHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
208 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RETURN FLO OF MOISTURE BEGINNING THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN VRB
CLDNS/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE FA AND EVEN ISOLD SHRAS
FM RIC ON SSW. WK WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL BE SLOLY LIFTING NNE ACRS
THE FA REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS PSBL...MNLY
THIS AFTN...DUE TO INCRSD (THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY. WATCHING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY SO FAR THIS MRNG.
BOTH 06Z/25 NAM AND LATEST HRRR REF KEYING ON REMNANT S/W TRACKING
SE INTO THE FA LATER TDA...KICKING OFF AN AREA OF STRONG/PSBLY
SVR TSTMS (MOST LIKELY AFT 22-23Z/25) WHICH MOVES FM CNTRL VA TO
THE ESE THROUGH REST OF THE EVE HRS. DAMAGING WNDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE INCRG PWATS...LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
ARE PSBL. HI TEMPS FM THE L80S NR THE CST TO 85-90F ELSW.
ANY CONVECTION TO WANE BY/AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LO
TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRS MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA COAST FRI MORN. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT
STALLS ACROSS SRN VA DRNG THE AFTRN AND ONLY DRIFT TO NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER FRI NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
THRU 00Z SAT. TMPS TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT LCTN IS.
SRN AREAS WILL STILL BE IN WRM SECTOR ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA
90 GIVEN PRTL SUNSHINE WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NITE INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD
AND WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTAB WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET PRD WITH WDSPRD SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY RNFL.
1-2 INCH QPF PSBL. ANTHR TRICKY TMP FCST ALL BASED ON TRIPLE PT
LOW TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY STAY IN WRM SCTR ALLOWING
READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S WHILE NR AREAS REMAIN ARND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT NORMAL ON AVG HOWEVER. FOR SAT NIGHT...SFC LO PRES PULLS
N/NE OF THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS
(POPS RANGE FM 50% SW TO 60-70% NE). CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES TO
ONLY CSTL AREAS SUN AS THE UPR-TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID
ATLC AND THE AIRMASS DRYS OUT. DRY CONDS CONTINUE INTO
MON...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASES AGAIN FOR TUE
(20% POPS) AND WED (30% POPS) AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W.
HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY RANGE THRU THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SCT TSTMS TO THE AREA. TSTMS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WILL UPDATE TAFS FOR ANY TSTMS AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER AND
TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED. A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE
SOUTH SOMETIME FRIDAY BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SITES IN THE MORNING SHIFTING WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SOME
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WHICH IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND SCT TSTMS ARE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED FOR SCA
IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED LATER TNIS
AFTERNOON.
]
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...ALLOWING FOR
SLY/SELY FLOW TO DEVELOP...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT (PRIMARILY
IN GUSTS TO 20 KT) OVER THE BAY/SOUND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE
AREA ON FRI. HOWEVER...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA
ATTM. SW WINDS 10-15 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NE-E
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
PRIMARILY EAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SE THEN S ON
SATURDAY...THEN SW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVE ON THE CHES BAY POST-
FRONTAL...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAY REACH 5-6 FT ON THE
OCEAN DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
153 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS FROM LAST
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
RECOVERY EXPECTED. THUS...OPTED TO FURTHER CUT BACK ON THE
MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS...WITH
ONLY ABOUT 500J/KG OF MUCAPE SUGGESTED IN THE MESOANALYSIS. SPC
FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE SLIGHT RISK NOW PUSHED SOUTH
OF ALL BUT TUCKER COUNTY.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER INDIANA MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT
A POCKET OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCE
POPS ARE INTRODUCED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO AN ENHANCING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE HAS LED TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED
AND AGREED UPON BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE DURATION OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH CLOUD COVER AND SO MUCH WARM AIR
ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY UNTIL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA. A PUSH OF
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR FOR LATE JUNE WILL SWING IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SETUP A SITUATION
WHERE HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AS
THE BETTER CONVECTION GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE.
WHILE NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR THIS EVE
AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH AN IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER MOST OF THE SITES FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PUSHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
356 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
LAKES EARLIER...WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHILE
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AFTER 06Z. THE OVERALL TREND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
CLEARING SKIES WITH DIMINISHING PCPN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MSTR IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE PCPN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
850MB DEW PTS WILL BE BETWEEN 9C AND 11C...SFC DEW PTS WILL LINGER
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.20 INCHES. FORCING THIS EVENING WILL BE FROM A COMBINED
EFFORT OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LVL CONVERGENCE.
500-300MB QVECTORS SHOW FORCING (ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB
TROUGH)...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST BY 06Z. CURRENT SFC OBS SHOWING SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IN WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW AND AFTN TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S. THE LAKE BREEZE FORMATION HAS HELPED CONCENTRATE MOST
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MI. A
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HRRR DATA SHOW CAPE VALUES NEARING 1200 J/KG (AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES). CAPES VALUES DIMINISH QUICKLY TO UNDER 500 J/KG ARND
03Z...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NRN MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN
GREAT LAKES AFTER 03Z...THE RESULT OF A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING FURTHER SOUTH INTO MI. 850/500MB RH FALLS
FROM 80 PCT TO UNDER 40 PCT...PWAT VALUES FALL FROM 1.20IN TO
0.50IN AND 850MB DEW PTS DRY FROM ARND 12C TO ARND 4C.
OVERALL WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS FALL
THROUGH THE 50S WHILE SFC DEW PTS SLOWLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
QUASI-PERMANENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS WITH DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS BECOMING
DRIER ON FRIDAY...STILL A HINT OF SOME HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/H9-H8 THETA-E RIDGING UP THE US-131 AND I-75 CORRIDORS IN
NORTHERN LOWER AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...A TERRIFIC STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND PUSHING NORTH/NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL KEEPS THIS SYSTEM
JUST SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. BUT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE FOR AREAS NEAR
SAGINAW BAY AND SOMETHING THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARD GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO COUNTIES LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE END RESULT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE CLOUDS BUT
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES/DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...SO BY ALL MEANS NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT).
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE MOISTURE-RICH SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES...PERHAPS PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF TIME TO IRON OF THE DETAILS ON IF/WHEN THAT`S
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
REGION AFT 06Z...WILL BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ACRS NRN MI TAF
SITES. EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS SFC DEW PTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S...GENERATING SOME MVFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
WINDS AND WAVES ARE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SWR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through Friday is obviously the continuing threat
for heavy rain. Issued a "shoot from the hip" flash flood watch
through 12Z this morning earlier in the shift for northern portions
of the area, and this still looks reasonable. Am concerned that the
line of convection over south central Iowa will hold together long
enough to cause problems past 12Z, but the RAP and HRRR have been
pretty insistent that storms will weaken between 11-13Z as the low
level jet continues to veer which should cause the isentropic lift
to weaken across the low level baroclinic zone. Have a couple of
hours to monitor before the flash flood watch expires, so will make
the call as to whether to extend in time/space around 11Z.
Should see the convection weaken and dissipate this morning with the
residual outflow boundaries merging with the synoptic warm front
which extends across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois at
this time. Don`t think the front will move much today, and it
should become unstable enough today for scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon...primarily along and north of I-70, but
just about anywhere could see rain.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that there will be another
couple of rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms tonight and
Friday ahead of a shortwave which will move across the area. GFS,
NAM, and SREF are showing P-WATs in excess of 2 inches draped across
the region through Friday ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold
front, any convection to affect the area should be very efficient at
producing rain. Given antecedent soil conditions and the rain we`ve
already received from this morning`s storms, will go ahead and issue
another flash flood watch for tonight and Friday morning across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. This may
be a bit too far north as the signals for the heaviest rainfall for
tonight and Friday look to be primarily in central Missouri, but I
don`t want to cut things too fine given what`s going on up north
right now and the inherent uncertainty in convective forecasting.
The watch may need to be extended in time and/or space for Friday
afternoon as the cold front moves through, but I will let the day
shift take another look at the heavy rain potential today.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Shortwave will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night and the
surface front will sweep through the area finally bringing an end
to the rain. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in good agreement with
ending the precip across the area between 03-09Z Saturday (with
perhaps some lingering sprinkles as a vortmax or two moves across
the area). Saturday and Sunday still look cool and dry for the
most part...although guidance is now printing out some very light
QPF each afternoon as a couple of more shortwaves move across the
area into the base of the longwave trof. Gut feeling is that there
won`t be enough low level moisture to fuel precipitation, but it`s
something to keep an eye on. More substantial chances for
precipitation develop Sunday night as the low level jet turns back
to the southwest ahead of a clipper-type low allowing moisture
back in from the southeastern Plains. The trof over the eastern
CONUS remains entrenched through the medium range which hints a
temperatures near or a bit below normal into next week and
continuing chances for precipitation as shortwaves move across the
area in the northwest flow aloft.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015
Primary concern through early Friday will be on convective trends.
Current thinking is that scattered storms will break out by late
this afternoon and could affect KCOU and the metro St. Louis
terminals. The KUIN terminal may end up too far north for this
activity. So included a VCTS group and KCOU and St. Louis sites
with a TEMPO group MVFR visbys with thunderstorms. Probably going
to be some kind of break overnight...though cannot totally rule
out thunderstorms anytime tonight. More widespread convective
activity is anticipated with an MCS which will likely travel
roughly west to east parallel to the I-70 corridor late tonight
and into early Friday morning. Behind this feature...MVFR ceilings
and potentially visibilities will remain along with a wind shift
to the northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
Primary concern through early Friday will be on convective trends.
Current thinking is that scattered storms will break out by late
this afternoon and may affect the terminal. So included a VCTS
group along with a TEMPO group for MVFR visbys
with thunderstorms. Probably going to be some kind of break
overnight tonight...though cannot totally rule out thunderstorms
anytime. More widespread convective activity is anticipated with
an MCS which will likely travel roughly west to east parallel to
the I-70 corridor late tonight and into early Friday morning. Best
guess of timing of this feature for KSTL is early Friday morning
with lingering showers through about the noon hour. Behind this
feature...MVFR ceilings and potentially visibilities will remain
along with a wind shift to the northwest through Friday afternoon.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 94 73 78 64 / 50 70 80 60
Quincy 87 68 73 60 / 50 60 70 30
Columbia 93 70 76 61 / 50 80 80 20
Jefferson City 95 71 79 62 / 50 80 80 30
Salem 92 71 80 64 / 50 60 80 70
Farmington 95 71 83 62 / 40 70 80 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox
MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
317 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...PERHAPS RESULTING IN AN EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY
THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES. A DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT AND
MOISTURE SURGE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE STORMS
TOWARD THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST
ENOUGH...AND HAVE BEEN PULSEY ENOUGH...TO NOT CAUSE TOO MANY WATER
ISSUES.
HI-RES MODELS SHOWING STORMS FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR THE E
NM/E CO BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. APPEARS THAT
STORMS MAY GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED INTO A CLUSTER...FORMING A COLD
POOL...WITH STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUTRACES THE
STORMS. HRRR KEEPS STORMS TOGETHER AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSWELL...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP FALLING APART SHORT OF THERE.
NONETHELESS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE SMALL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOSING INTO NE NM ATTM SHOULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE. DEPENDING ON IF STORMS FIRE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANDIAS...AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...COULD SEE A PRETTY
STRONG...BUT SHORT-LIVED...EAST WIND INTO THE RGV.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THOUGH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW...A BACK DOOR
FRONT...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY AIDED... WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT...AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
DAY AFTER THE FRONT NUDGES UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IGNITING
STORMS...AND THOSE STORMS SHOULD TRAVEL S OR SE-WARD OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY-MID AFTN...SPILLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM AS WELL...PERHAPS WITH BETTER COVERAGE THAN TODAY. EAST
CANYON WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE PRETTY STRONG.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PWATS LIKELY ABOVE 1 INCH AREAWIDE/...
NORTH TO SOUTH STEERING FLOW...AND LOW LEVEL S TO SELY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE PERIOD MIGHT BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT.
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN
IS A CERTAINTY. THIS SPELLS A RECIPE FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE MORE OF THE SAME...THOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ALSO NOSE INTO
NE NM AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... DRIER AIR LOOKS TO CIRCLE AROUND THE
HIGH AND OVER NM. THOUGH THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN TO SEE SOME ACTION.
ACTIVITY RAMPS BACK UP ON THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR
FRONT REPLENISHING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT INDICATIONS
IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THURS...AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT...OR PERHAPS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE ON THE 4TH OF JULY. LOOKS LIKE MOTHER NATURE
WILL PROVIDE HER OWN FIREWORKS AGAIN THIS YEAR.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL BIG CHANGES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS SURGE WILL KICK OFF
A WET PHASE TO THE MONSOON PERIOD.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIT AND MISS STORMS CONTAINING WETTING
RAIN WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BLEED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE
TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SWEEP UNDERNEATH
AND REENERGIZE MOISTURE SUPPLIES WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER. A
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
PUSH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. WETTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT STILL BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND BUT
NOT AS STRONG COMPARED TO A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND COULD
POSSIBLY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH THE MOISTURE LOST EARLIER IN THE WAY AND
INCREASE WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE THE LOWEST DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO
REDUCED MIXING HEIGHTS...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TRANSPORT
WINDS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS FIRING UP EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. THEY WILL INITIALLY FAVOR
THE MOUNTAINS BUT EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF THE MTNS AND AFFECT THE
LOWLANDS. THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE BAND OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD AND TRAVELING
SOUTH/WESTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. TERMINAL
SITES SUCH AS LVS/TCC/ROW/SAF/ABQ/AEG SHOULD BE IMPACTED. GUP AND
FMN ALSO HAVE THE CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY VCTS OR VCSH BUT
CHOSE VCSH. COULD SEE SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
THE EAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DUE TO PASSING STRONGER STORMS. SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE PAST 06Z ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THUS
IMPACTING ROW. A STRONG EAST WIND IS POSSIBLE AT ABQ THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT SPEEDS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. CAN READJUST A
LITTLE LATER.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 97 64 94 / 0 5 10 20
DULCE........................... 45 89 51 85 / 10 20 30 50
CUBA............................ 48 86 52 80 / 30 40 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 51 92 57 90 / 5 20 10 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 90 57 85 / 20 50 40 50
GRANTS.......................... 53 90 59 87 / 20 30 30 60
QUEMADO......................... 54 90 58 86 / 30 30 40 70
GLENWOOD........................ 58 92 58 89 / 40 40 40 50
CHAMA........................... 47 80 48 80 / 30 60 40 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 86 60 81 / 50 60 50 60
PECOS........................... 57 81 57 76 / 60 70 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 77 52 74 / 30 70 60 50
RED RIVER....................... 43 70 45 65 / 50 70 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 73 47 69 / 50 70 70 70
TAOS............................ 49 84 52 79 / 20 60 50 40
MORA............................ 52 77 53 73 / 50 60 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 57 92 58 86 / 20 50 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 60 83 61 80 / 30 70 60 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 87 60 83 / 30 60 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 90 67 87 / 40 50 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 92 69 88 / 30 40 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 94 66 90 / 30 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 93 68 89 / 30 30 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 94 66 90 / 20 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 94 67 90 / 40 30 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 67 96 67 91 / 30 30 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 87 59 82 / 50 60 70 50
TIJERAS......................... 59 89 61 85 / 50 60 60 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 88 54 83 / 50 50 60 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 83 57 78 / 70 60 60 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 59 81 / 50 40 70 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 89 61 85 / 30 30 50 50
RUIDOSO......................... 56 81 55 77 / 40 50 60 60
CAPULIN......................... 59 79 56 77 / 40 50 60 30
RATON........................... 54 80 55 80 / 40 50 70 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 83 57 80 / 40 50 70 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 80 53 76 / 60 50 70 60
CLAYTON......................... 63 82 60 81 / 40 30 50 20
ROY............................. 59 82 59 78 / 40 50 70 30
CONCHAS......................... 66 90 64 85 / 60 40 60 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 90 63 85 / 60 40 60 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 90 64 86 / 50 30 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 63 88 62 82 / 50 40 50 20
PORTALES........................ 65 90 65 83 / 50 40 50 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 91 65 85 / 50 40 60 30
ROSWELL......................... 67 95 68 87 / 30 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 61 90 61 82 / 50 30 60 40
ELK............................. 58 82 59 75 / 50 40 60 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
311 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TODAY WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT WE HAVE A LOT OF
VERY GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE BUT WHETHER OR NOT
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST AND REPRESENTS WHAT WE THINK
SHOULD HAPPEN. NAMELY...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHAT DOES GO UP HAS THE CHANCE TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA BORDER AND WILL HELP SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ENHANCED HELICITY. ANOTHER
VARIABLE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AT PEAK HEATING. RIGHT NOW
IT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRIAD LESS LIKELY. AGAIN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRIANGLE WILL SEE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AS FAR AS HYDROLOGY
IS CONCERNED...AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROMPTED
SOME FLOODING NEAR THE TRIAD. FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PROMPT SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR EVEN FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. -ELLIS
LOOK FOR TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT STORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES
PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
WITH SOME BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD...PRECIP SHOULD
BE AT A MINIMUM DURING THE DAY (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS). HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES DURING
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THEREFORE A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (LIKELY OUR LAST FOR THIS
CURRENT HEAT WAVE)...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A HEAT ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SINCE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LIMITING
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. REGARDLESS...MODELS PROG MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY
THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOSTLY MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ACTUALLY BEING BELOW NORMAL. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS SET
UP...ANY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION
BUT IN GENERAL...KRWI AND KFAY WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD END UP
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT KRWI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TODAY WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT WE HAVE A LOT OF
VERY GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE BUT WHETHER OR NOT
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST AND REPRESENTS WHAT WE THINK
SHOULD HAPPEN. NAMELY...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHAT DOES GO UP HAS THE CHANCE TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA BORDER AND WILL HELP SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ENHANCED HELICITY. ANOTHER
VARIABLE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AT PEAK HEATING. RIGHT NOW
IT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRIAD LESS LIKELY. AGAIN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRIANGLE WILL SEE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AS FAR AS HYDROLOGY
IS CONCERNED...AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROMPTED
SOME FLOODING NEAR THE TRIAD. FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PROMPT SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR EVEN FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. -ELLIS
LOOK FOR TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT STORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES
PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -RAH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION
BUT IN GENERAL...KRWI AND KFAY WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD END UP
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT KRWI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25 100 1952
06/26 102 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25 101 1914
06/26 102 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25 102 1914
06/26 101 1951
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPLEX TRAIN OF MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PARADING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE DAKOTAS. ANY OF
THESE SHORTWAVES HAS SUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO INITIATE
CONVECTION...AND RADAR IMAGERY AT 1 PM CDT CONFIRMED THAT THERE IS
ALSO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THUS FAR...THERE IS STILL GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FURTHER...12 UTC HIRES ARW/NMM AND THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED ON ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
UPDATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW ISOLATED
STORMS THAT RECENTLY POPPED UP ON RADAR. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
EXPANDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE A
GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST...SPREADING
EAST AND NORTH. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TO LIKELY. THIS LINES UP FAIRLY WILL WITH THE MARGINAL
OUTLOOK SHOWN BY SPC...WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WRF/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING (COLD FRONT...SURFACE LOW ETC.). FORECAST
CAPE/SHEAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE
THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LIKELY WON`T SEE
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS AS CAPE/SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT
BETTER DOWN THERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO BRING AN END TO THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS ON SATURDAY...AS A
VARIETY OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90
ON SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WEST DOMINATING THE PATTERN BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. POTENT SHORT WAVE BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND
APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PATTERN THEN STAYS ACTIVE THROUGH MID- WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAKE MANAGING
TAFS DIFFICULT. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL TO BLANKET
EACH SITE...SO SHORT-FUSED UPDATES WILL BE USED TO INDICATE THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR
KDIK BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
UPDATE ADDRESSES AFTN CONVECTION POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL BE WIDELY
ISOLATED AND THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH EAST AS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVES CROSS OUT OF MANITOBA. DEW POINTS AROUND 60 F WILL PROVIDE
SOME WEAK CAPE NEAR PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
HAS DECREASED 35 KT BULK SHEAR TO NEAR ZERO THIS AFTN. ANY
CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF WHAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SHOULD BE DRY BY
02Z TO 03Z. ALSO LOOKING AT FOG POTENTIAL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MENTION IN THE FAR EAST FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR SHOWING CIN ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTN. SHEAR TODAY IS WEAK...WITH THE
STRONGEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AT AROUND 35 KTS. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE MID AFTN CONVECTION STARTING AND
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WESTERN ZONES UNTIL 23Z. WE DO HAVE MID 50S
DEW POINTS BUT WILL NEED TIME FOR CIN TO ERODE. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
BE DRY BY AROUND 04Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG IN SPOTS IN NW MN. WEBCAMS SHOWS NEARLY
ALL SITES THOUGH SUNNY SO FOG IS INDEED PATCHY. IT WILL BURN OFF
BEFORE 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ENOUGH SFC HEATING OF THE DAY TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TO FORM CUMULUS IN THE AFTN. WILL NOT HAVE
THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT MU CAPES NR 1000
J/KG (MAINLY IN NW MN) SHOULD GENERATE A COUPLE OF STORMS. BEST
CHC IS IN NW MN WHERE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
AFTN-EVE. ANOTHER AREA IS MORE WRN-S CNTRL ND. PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH NW MN APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SUMMER BLAH PATTERN IS NOW HERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG IT...MORE SO IN
NRN RRV INTO NW MN CLOSER TO 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. BUT WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MU
CAPES (1500 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR (40-55 KTS) HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD STRONG OR SVR STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
SPC DAY 3 HAS AREA IN MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER WAVE
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM| CDT THU JUN 25 2015
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED LOWER
LEVEL CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. UNSURE ABOUT POTENTIAL FOG COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER LWR MI...NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. THINK THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET THEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO DIE OFF.
THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SHRA/PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO CONTINUING
MAKING SURE THE GROUND STAYS SATURATED BEFORE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
EVENTUAL FLOODING RETURN STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LOWERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS COOLING
TAKES PLACE .
HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RATHER WET EVEN STORMY WEEKEND WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL QPF IS RATHER HIGH FROM MOST MODELS WITH
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WITH VERY WET SOIL...WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
INSTABILITY IS MODEST SO THIS EVENT MAY HAVE LOWER RAINFALL RATES
THAN RECENT EVENTS BUT THE DURATION IS PROLONGED SO FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
SOME DECREASE ON SUNDAY. HAVE USED MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TRAIN KEEPS ON ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA. WAVE AFTER WAVE AFTER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE THE RESULT OF FAST MOVING
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN WET.
AFTER A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HITS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIODS OF RAIN WILL HELP TO KEEP
SOIL ACROSS THE AREA AT OR NEAR SATURATION. SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS
THAT FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
ONCE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE. SO...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 60S
FOR LOWS. NO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THERE IS WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOW VFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS IN NRN INDIANA AND NWRN OHIO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS COULD IMPACT KFDY THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF IFR CIGS AS WELL AS
CIGS LOWER. ALSO BROUGHT IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG/MIST AS
WELL TOWARDS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL IS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ON SATURDAY. AFTER SPEAKING TO BUFFALO NWS AND THE TORONTO CANADA
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...WILL GO WITH WINDS IN THE LOW 30 KNOTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT JUST
BELOW GALES FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GET AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
613 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER LWR MI...NRN INDIANA AND NW OH IN THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET THEN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL START TO DIE OFF. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS
SUPPORT THIS.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SHRA/PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO CONTINUING
MAKING SURE THE GROUND STAYS SATURATED BEFORE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
EVENTUAL FLOODING RETURN STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LOWERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS COOLING
TAKES PLACE .
HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RATHER WET EVEN STORMY WEEKEND WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL QPF IS RATHER HIGH FROM MOST MODELS WITH
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WITH VERY WET SOIL...WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
INSTABILITY IS MODEST SO THIS EVENT MAY HAVE LOWER RAINFALL RATES
THAN RECENT EVENTS BUT THE DURATION IS PROLONGED SO FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
SOME DECREASE ON SUNDAY. HAVE USED MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TRAIN KEEPS ON ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA. WAVE AFTER WAVE AFTER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE THE RESULT OF FAST MOVING
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN WET.
AFTER A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HITS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIODS OF RAIN WILL HELP TO KEEP
SOIL ACROSS THE AREA AT OR NEAR SATURATION. SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS
THAT FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
ONCE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE. SO...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 60S
FOR LOWS. NO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIMITED AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A MIX OF MVFR...IFR...AND VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY
TO VFR TOMORROW. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA THE REST OF
FRI. WIDESPREAD NON VFR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL IS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ON SATURDAY. AFTER SPEAKING TO BUFFALO NWS AND THE TORONTO CANADA
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...WILL GO WITH WINDS IN THE LOW 30 KNOTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT JUST
BELOW GALES FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM TO GET AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THAT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK TO OHIO AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS IS CONTINUING TO WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF SOME BETTER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MUCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF A BIT LONGER AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TO
REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS IS ABLE TO
DISSIPATE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE THE RAP IS TRYING TO
REDEVELOP 1000-2000 J/KG ML CAPES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PCPN THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HRRR/ARW. WILL THEN NUDGE POPS BACK UP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS BUT AM HESITANT TO
LOWER THEM TOO MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM. A LEADING EDGE OF WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS
OVER KENTUCKY AS THEY PASS SOUTHWARD FROM OHIO AND INDIANA. EAST
WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WILL DRY OUT THE REGION FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD...UNTIL RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF A STEADY NATURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO OHIO EARLY
SATURDAY. LARGEST THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID STRENGTHENING AS IT SPINS
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE SAME TIME...HELPING TO PULL THE
SURFACE SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AND THEN TO STALL IT OUT OVER
NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND AN INFILTRATION OF COLDER AIR FRONT THESE
ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WILL ONLY PERMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EVEN AS READINGS RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NORTH TO LOW 80S IN KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S THURS AND FRI NIGHT...UNTIL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ON THE
BACK END OF THESE SYSTEMS PULLS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO
THE FA. DUE TO THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SOME SPOTTY IFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT THE
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR SO
THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD EVENING AND WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A
VCTS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ASSUMING THE STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL. ONE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
25.00Z GFS/NAM AND 25.03Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/HRRR SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE
DEEPER FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300MB LAYER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
AREA.
WEAK SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 25.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PERIODIC SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROMISES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW THOUGH IS NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL SLIDE A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS IA/ILL TONIGHT/FRI. AREAS OF SHRA/TS WILL RESULT...BUT LOOK
TO STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY FRIDAY...LIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ONE CAVEAT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BR OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING ON
HOW THICK/PREVALENT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...RIECK