Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/23/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATED TO END SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS STILL OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...BUT HAVE QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 10 PM. NO OTHER UPDATES
AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT E-NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS/ERN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CIN HAS SO FAR KEPT
THINGS IN CHECK. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM STILL HAVE SOME WEAK
TSRA DEVELOPING...WHILE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY. WILL KEEP JUST SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS
INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE
AREA REMAIN CONVECTION FREE AT THIS POINT. ANY CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS PRODUCING A
RETURN TO S-SW WINDS...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME VERY HOT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS NEAR/OVER 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
90 TO 100 ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...70S AND
80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SOME...ALLOWING A
FETCH OF MODEST MOISTURE TO ENTER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVIDENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS DIVERGENT ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY EVENING. GFS HAS
THE MOST...WITH EUROPEAN BARELY ANY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS WITH INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASING.
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...MORE SO THAN THE EUROPEAN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE....MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...IN THE
80S AND 90S PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S TO 70S
MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCOS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WEAKENS THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WELL UPSTREAM...MOVING INTO WESTERN
NY/PA...AND ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED ON HRRR FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET. THEREFORE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY FAR NW ZONES FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND MUGGY CONDS. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND...AND 70 TO 75 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEPARTING MCS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL COMPLICATE FORECAST SOME
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD BE PRESENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...IN ADDITION
TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS EARLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND GUSTY SW FLOW
TO PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 IN NYC...LOWER 90S ACROSS
NE NJ AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
AROUND 95 IN NYC AND IN THE UPPER 90S IN NE NJ...AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH MODEL FCST CAPES OF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG
ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND. AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK MID DAY...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WHICH
WILL PROGRESS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING INLAND
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FORECAST BY THE MODELS...SEVERE T-STORMS
ARE FORECAST...WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED T-STORMS WILL PUSH SE OF THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS WELL WITH
LOWERING HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINLY ZONAL H5 FLOW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SAT
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE SE STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH BOTH TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS LEADING TO VARIATIONS IN
THE TRACK OF SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC DURING THIS
TIME.
WED WILL BE A DRIER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND WEAKENS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THU NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS LOW PASSES S OF
LONG ISLAND ON FRI FOLLOWED BY A FEW MORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE AND ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW
CONSENSUS IS TRACKING ALL OF THE WAVES TO THE S OF LONG
ISLAND...THEREFORE HAVE REMOVES ALL MENTION OF THUNDER AS WE`LL BE
ON THE STABLE SIDE.
TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WED AND THU...THEN WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT PASSING
NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY TUE. MAINLY VFR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY
POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR KSWF BUT THIS IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL
AS HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MID AFTN TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE.
A GENERAL S FLOW 5-10 KT FOR TONIGHT INCREASES TUE AND BECOMES
GUSTY FOR CITY TERMINALS WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE...WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HRS COMPARED
TO FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE...WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HRS COMPARED
TO FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE...WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HRS COMPARED
TO FORECAST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHIFT TO SW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLY THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE...WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HRS COMPARED TO
FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE...WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HRS COMPARED
TO FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE...WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HRS COMPARED
TO FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SHOWERS/TSTMS ENDING EARLY. VFR RETURNING. WINDS
BECOME NW-N 5-10 KT.
.WED...VFR. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20KT PM. WINDS DIMINISH AT NIGHT.
.THU...VFR AM. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME SHRA/SUB-VFR.
.FRI-SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE 25-30 KT GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ON NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
WILL ADD THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS TO THE SCA FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
POTENTIAL ON ALL WATERS FOR VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS T-STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF A WAVE OF
LOW PRES BEGINS THU NIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS COULD BUILD TO SCA LEVELS
QUICKER THAN FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRI
EVE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS TUE COULD POSE AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER
PRIMARILY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ATTM.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM
THU THROUGH SUN...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE
WAVES OF LOW PRES ARE UNCERTAIN WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ338-
345.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...MPS/GS
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GS
HYDROLOGY...GS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
505 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY AND IT HAS BEEN MAINLY IN CLOUD. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. DESPITE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK SO IT`S LIMITING STORM GROWTH.
OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL THEN BE ON THE DECREASE. THE
NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS ARE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
REMOVED THE ENHANCED WORDING FROM THE FORECAST SINCE THERE IS ONLY
A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS WE REMAIN IN A FAST FLOW.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
APPROACH MONDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MORE POTENT AND WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...LOOKING AT A THREAT WINDOW FROM
LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BE PRESENT.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE GREATER
INSTABILITYAND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST. HAVE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
IN ADDITION...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BRISK WINDS
SUBSIDING.
MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WARM WHILE IT WILL GET VERY WARM/HOT ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MAINLY FROM THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE VALLEY. DID NOT GO WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS...SEEMS
OVERDONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY...BUT WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...
AND HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN ONLY THE 60S AND LOWER TO MID
70S. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO HIGH MVFR/VFR AT KALB SOUTH TO KPOU
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS STILL REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE
AT KPSF/KGFL /1.5-2.O KFT AGL/. WE EXPECT THE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS BTWN 18Z-21Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SCT
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE PM/EARLY
EVENING. THE SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU BTWN 22Z-01Z. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KALB THROUGHOUT...AND AT THE OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO
22Z.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 01Z/MON TO 04Z/MON ACROSS ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUDS MAY QUICKLY CLEAR...AND THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH THE WET GROUND
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIST/FOG AND STRATUS TO FORM IN THE IFR/LOW
MVFR RANGE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN 06Z-13Z. KPOU MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A
WIND FOR ONLY SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST. KALB WINDS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR NO MIST/FOG AND STRATUS.
ANY FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z/MON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW/N AT 5-12 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH BILLS MOISTURE. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SW TO
W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN VEER BACK TO W TO NW AT 5-10
KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...AND PERHAPS
KPOU SHORTLY AFTER 04Z. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT
5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL COME TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. IN FACT...SOME
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ULSTER CO.
THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH TO HELP PWATS RISE. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+ INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
THE NEW 00Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST
STEADY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER PA STARTS TO
ROTATE TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO SOME
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS WELL.
NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE RAIN RATES WON/T APPEAR TO
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL...SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO
STATEMENT.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HELPING ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTER
AREAS...AS THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR POUGHKEEPSIE NY
STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH THE MUGGY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO ACROSS THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS MAINLY THE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FOR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM`S
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY PLACING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.
FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SHEAR INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK MULTICELLS CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...FOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HAVE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ADDRESSING THE THREAT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD WITH MAINLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...
BUT ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE MENTION IS FOR JUST SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF TUESDAY FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN...TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE LOWER 80S AND AROUND 59 DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/IFR THROUGH 09Z AS PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...WITH PREDOMINATELY IFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS.
HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z TO 09Z FOR
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE OF A SHOWERY NATURE...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN BY AROUND
10Z TO 14Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST...BUT LIGHT AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE IFR AFTER 12Z AS SHOWERS
END...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
AROUND...BUT THESE WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE. NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE NY STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18
INCHES. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1233 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. IN FACT...SOME
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ULSTER CO.
THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH TO HELP PWATS RISE. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+ INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
THE NEW 00Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST
STEADY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER PA STARTS TO
ROTATE TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO SOME
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS WELL.
NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE RAIN RATES WON/T APPEAR TO
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL...SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO
STATEMENT.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HELPING ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTER
AREAS...AS THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR POUGHKEEPSIE NY
STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH THE MUGGY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO ACROSS THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS MAINLY THE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FOR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM`S
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY PLACING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.
FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SHEAR INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK MULTICELLS CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...FOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HAVE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ADDRESSING THE THREAT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD WITH MAINLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...
BUT ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE MENTION IS FOR JUST SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF TUESDAY FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN...TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE LOWER 80S AND AROUND 59 DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS
FOR ALL SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING PLENTY
OF LOW STRATUS TO FORM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS
DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL...AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH VSBYS/CIGS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND 6-9 AM OVER THE REGION. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD END ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS...THERE MAY BE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR T-STORMS AROUND...BUT THESE WILL BE
RATHER SCT IN NATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE. NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE NY STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18
INCHES. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1124 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS
TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND
TRACKING UP TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST, WE INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SUPPORTING THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 90, AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 70 WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT STICKY. THE ONLY
SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND THE
CFP AND IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY.
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURS AT 1238 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AFTER ANY EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL END AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP AS THE WIND CONTINUES FROM THE W AND EVEN PSBLY NW
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT:
**HOT TUESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD**
500 MB: WARM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES TRENDING TO A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.
CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
AND THEN PROBABLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX`S FRIDAY MIGHT BE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW
NORMAL-A COOLISH DAY!
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/21 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/21 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/21 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, MONDAY LOOKS VERY NICE. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. PWAT ONLY 1 INCH! SFC DEWPOINTS ALMOST 10F LOWER THAN
THE VALUES OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES LATE. SMALL CHANCE
AND NOT YET MENTIONED, OF A SHOWER GRAZING THE POCONOS AT DAWN
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON SCENARIO: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND HUMID! A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. SREF PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MLCAPE OVER 2000J BY LATE IN THE DAY. 0-6KM
BULK QUITE STRONG WITH 50 KT AT 500MB NEAR AND N I-78 AND TT LOWER
50S WITH SWI -4. LANCE POINTED OUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML)
IN THE SOUNDING AND NICELY SEEN IN BOTH THE EC AND GFS PLAN VIEW
BREAKING FREE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND APPEARING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE 18Z TUESDAY. THE EML OFFERS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH POTENTIAL IF CONVECTION ERUPTS. WE`RE ALSO
NOTING HIGH FORECAST SHERB VALUES FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY (VALUES
OVER 1). POPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INCLUDING 95-96F AT PHL IS ABOVE AVG.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION: AVERAGE WITH MODELED PARAMETERS FOR SVR
IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY DRY AND NICE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
A BIT ABOVE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COMPLEX AND NOT GIVEN TO ADDING MUCH
INFORMATION EXCEPT TO SAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF PERIODIC
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY NEXT SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL GUST AT TIMES TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.
LATER IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHWRS OR EVEN A TSTM
AS THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW AND AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER, AREAL COVERAGE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE SMALL, SO
NOT INCLUDING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA, VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE DAY AFTER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. NW GUST 20 POSSIBLY 25 KT EARLY
THEN DIMINISHES LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT LOWERING TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY TSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY OR MORE
LIKELY EVENING. GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SHIFT NW AT NIGHT
BUT GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY...VFR DAYTIME WITH POSSIBLE CIGS ARRIVING AT NIGHT. NW
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT NE AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM. MVFR/IFR CONDS IN STRATUS-FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE CONTINUED THRU 22/00Z. AFTER THAT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER SO IT WAS NOT EXTENDED ATTM. IF THERE
NEEDS TO BE AN EXTENSION, IT WUD LIKELY BE FOR SEAS AS WIND SHUD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, ONCE WE GET BEYOND THIS SCA, NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR THE ATLC WATERS THEN NW
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...SCA SW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
11 AM ASSESSMENT INCLUDING INFORMATION GATHERED FROM OUR 1015 AM
CONFERENCE CALL WITH 4 BEACH PATROLS.
THE FORMATION RISK WAS PROBABLY HIGHEST THIS MRNG. NOW THAT WINDS
ARE WLY, WE`RE NO LONGER BUILDING THE WATER LEVEL IN THE SURF
ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND AS THE TIDE MOVES INTO THE LOWER HALF OF
THE TIDE CYCLE AFTER 2 PM...WHATEVER RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS, IT TENDS TO ELEVATE DUE TO SAND BAR
EXPOSURE AND RESIDUAL WATER BUILD UP. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE AT A
MINIMUM TODAY SO THE CONTRIBUTUION OF WATER BUILDUP BEHIND THE
BARS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING
SHORT PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL.
WE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS FROM NORTH WILDWOOD AND ISLAND BEACH
STATE PARK ABOUT CONCERN THAT THE RIP CURRENT FORMATION LATE THIS
MORNING WAS BORDERING HIGH RISK.
FOR NOW..DUE TO THE EXPECTED WESTERLY WIND IMPACT, WE`LL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.
MEDIA ARE RECOMMENDED TO ADVISE CAUTION FOR SWIMMERS GOING INTO
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS. THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
VULNERABLE TO THE MAX TEMP WITHIN 2F OF EQUALING THE RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
RAINFALL: THE PAST WEEK FROM THE 14TH THROUGH 20TH "NOT INCLUDING
TODAYS SO FAR". A GRAPHIC AND LINK WITH MORE DETAIL WILL POST ON
OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FB PAGE AND WILL BE TWEETED.
KMPO 2.07 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KRDG 1.69 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KABE 1.91 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KTTN 0.84 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KPHL 1.49 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KILG 2.70 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KACY 1.18 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KGED 1.06 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
WHEN WE ADD TODAYS RAINFALL THROUGH 9 AM... IT WILL HAVE RAINED 8
CONSEC DAYS AT KMPO/KRDG/KPHL AND KILG AND 7 OF 8 ELSEWHERE.
KILG: THE 9.18 INCHES FOR THE MONTH AS OF 845 AM THIS MORNING IS
STILL 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
2013 13.66
2003 9.90
2006 9.40
2015 9.18
POR FOR THIS STATION IN JUNE IS BACK TO 1896. INTERESTINGLY, IN
THE NEARLY 120 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD, THE TOP 4 MONTHLY JUNE
RAINFALL TOTALS ALL OCCURRED IN THE LAST 13 YEARS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE 20TH ARE AVERAGING 1.3 TO 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RTPPHI IS MISSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
FAA MAINTENANCE PERIOD FROM 315Z-815Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 1123
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1033 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS
TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND
TRACKING UP TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST, WE INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SUPPORTING THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 90, AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 70 WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT STICKY. THE ONLY
SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND THE
CFP AND IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY.
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURS AT 1238 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AFTER ANY EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL END AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP AS THE WIND CONTINUES FROM THE W AND EVEN PSBLY NW
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM OVERNIGHT TO FOCUS ON CURRENT
EVENT. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
**RATHER HOT TUESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD**
500 MB: WARM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES TRENDING TO
A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND.
JUNE THROUGH THE FIRST 19 DAYS HAS AVERAGED 1 TO 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 5 ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
PROBABLY NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/20 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT, 12Z/20 MEX MOS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/20 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN
TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, MONDAY LOOKS VERY NICE. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. PWAT ONLY 1 INCH! SFC DEWPOINTS ALMOST 10F LOWER THAN
THE VALUES OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES LATE. SMALL CHANCE
AND NOT YET MENTIONED, OF A SHOWER GRAZING THE POCONOS AT DAWN
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON SCENARIO: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND HUMID! A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. SREF PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MLCAPE OVER 2000J BY LATE IN THE DAY. 0-6KM
BULK QUITE STRONG WITH 50 KT AT 500MB NEAR AND N I-78 AND TT LOWER
50S WITH SWI -4. LANCE POINTED OUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML)
IN THE SOUNDING AND NICELY SEEN IN BOTH THE EC AND GFS PLAN VIEW
BREAKING FREE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND APPEARING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE 18Z TUESDAY. THE EML OFFERS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH POTENTIAL IF CONVECTION ERUPTS. WE`RE ALSO
NOTING HIGH FORECAST SHERB VALUES FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY (VALUES
OVER 1). POPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INCLUDING 95-96F AT PHL IS ABOVE AVG.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION: AVERAGE WITH MODELED PARAMETERS FOR SVR
IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY DRY AND NICE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
A BIT ABOVE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COMPLEX AND NOT GIVEN TO ADDING MUCH
INFORMATION EXCEPT TO SAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF PERIODIC
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY NEXT SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL GUST AT TIMES TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.
LATER IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHWRS OR EVEN A TSTM
AS THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW AND AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER, AREAL COVERAGE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE SMALL, SO
NOT INCLUDING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA, VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE DAY AFTER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. NW GUST 20 POSSIBLY 25 KT EARLY
THEN DIMINISHES LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT LOWERING TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY TSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY OR MORE
LIKELY EVENING. GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SHIFT NW AT NIGHT
BUT GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY...VFR DAYTIME WITH POSSIBLE CIGS ARRIVING AT NIGHT. NW
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT NE AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM. MVFR/IFR CONDS IN STRATUS-FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE CONTINUED THRU 22/00Z. AFTER THAT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER SO IT WAS NOT EXTENDED ATTM. IF THERE
NEEDS TO BE AN EXTENSION, IT WUD LIKELY BE FOR SEAS AS WIND SHUD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, ONCE WE GET BEYOND THIS SCA, NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR THE ATLC WATERS THEN NW
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...SCA SW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH A GUSTY WIND AND ELEVATED SEAS, GUID INDICATES
THAT RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY. HOWEVER, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT THE RISK MAY BE HIGHEST IN THE MRNG, BECAUSE AS THE WIND
BECOMES MORE WLY AND NWLY AND THE WAVES ARE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
SHORE, THE RISK CUD LOWER AS THE SEAS DO. CONDS WILL BE FURTHER
ASSESSED LATER TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
VULNERABLE TO THE MAX TEMP WITHIN 2F OF EQUALING THE RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
RAINFALL: THE PAST WEEK FROM THE 14TH THROUGH 20TH "NOT INCLUDING
TODAYS SO FAR". A GRAPHIC AND LINK WITH MORE DETAIL WILL POST ON
OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FB PAGE AND WILL BE TWEETED.
KMPO 2.07 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KRDG 1.69 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KABE 1.91 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KTTN 0.84 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KPHL 1.49 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KILG 2.70 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KACY 1.18 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KGED 1.06 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
WHEN WE ADD TODAYS RAINFALL THROUGH 9 AM... IT WILL HAVE RAINED 8
CONSEC DAYS AT KMPO/KRDG/KPHL AND KILG AND 7 OF 8 ELSEWHERE.
KILG: THE 9.18 INCHES FOR THE MONTH AS OF 845 AM THIS MORNING IS
STILL 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
2013 13.66
2003 9.90
2006 9.40
2015 9.18
POR FOR THIS STATION IN JUNE IS BACK TO 1896. INTERESTINGLY, IN
THE NEARLY 120 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD, THE TOP 4 MONTHLY JUNE
RAINFALL TOTALS ALL OCCURRED IN THE LAST 13 YEARS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE 20TH ARE AVERAGING 1.3 TO 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RTPPHI IS MISSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
FAA MAINTENANCE PERIOD FROM 315Z-815Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NE ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE
COMPLEX OF RAIN AND STORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE SOUTH EARLIER
TONIGHT TO ALSO SLIDE SE/DISSIPATE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG
DRYING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECT VSBYS TO ALSO LOWER IN LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW 3-4 SM AT ORD
AND MDW.
NO RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE
TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH FAIRLY STOUT NORTHWEST TO WEST
GRADIENT WIND DIMINISHING POSSIBLY ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SLACKEN BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP MONDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MONDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE U P OF
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT... IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LENGTH OF
THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN EASE
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE LOW AND FRONT PULL AWAY AND
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
109 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NE ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE
COMPLEX OF RAIN AND STORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE SOUTH EARLIER
TONIGHT TO ALSO SLIDE SE/DISSIPATE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG
DRYING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECT VSBYS TO ALSO LOWER IN LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW 3-4 SM AT ORD
AND MDW.
NO RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE
TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH FAIRLY STOUT NORTHWEST TO WEST
GRADIENT WIND DIMINISHING POSSIBLY ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 4000
J/KG MLCAPE VALUES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINE WITH 30-50 KTS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF IL. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL IL AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH OR GREATER...LARGE HAIL...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND LARGELY SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL IL TOWARD POCKET OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. HAVE SENT
UPDATES TO FORECASTS FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LARGELY USING HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL DEFINED BY 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH 580 DM 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAWN SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS 1.5-3K FT
OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IS KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DRY SO FAR
TODAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IA AND
TRACKING EAST INTO NW IL AND SW WI MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WILL EVOLVE
INTO A LARGER MCS SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SE TOWARD THE IL RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL IL DURING
THIS EVENING, REACHING SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT WHERE CONVECTION
CHANCES LOWER TO 30% FROM I-70 SOUTH. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AS FAR SE AS A TAYLORVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE TONIGHT WHILE
ENHANCED RISK WAS EXPANDED SE TO NEAR THE IL RIVER. AREAS WEST OF IL
RIVER HAVE 30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL (2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER) AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH A 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH
CAPES RISING TO 2500-4500 J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES (EVEN NEAR 5000
J/KG BY 00Z/7 PM IN SW IA/NE MO AND FAR WEST CENTRAL IL AROUND
QUINCY. MEANWHILE BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS OVER NORTHERN CWA MAINLY
FROM I-72 NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES OVER
IA THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING AND COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GET BY MORNING. FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE STORMS AND AGREE
WITH SPC THAT A SLIGHT RISK IS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...SO PCPN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS FORECASTING
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT
FROM GOING TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL LIKELY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PCPN...BUT TIMING OF WHEN THESE WILL BE THIS FAR OUT IS TOO
UNCERTAIN. SO WILL JUST KEEP POPS THE WHOLE TIME AND THEN MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE EVENTS GET CLOSER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING
MON THROUGH WED. A RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI
AND SAT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK BUT WENT LITTLE WARMER IN THE
EXTENDED THAN MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AT
06Z. EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW
VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AND WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KSPI-KDEC-KCMI...POTENTIALLY UNTIL
AROUND 10-12Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSING ACTIVITY SHIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD BACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 21-24Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS BACK INTO TAFS AT THAT TIME. WINDS VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...TRANSITIONING
BACK TO W-SW 5-10 KTS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEARBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HIGH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND THEN BACK INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI
ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY
ALONG COLD FRONT IS LESS CLEAR CUT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON LAST EVENING/S UPPER AIR HAVE LIKELY
BEEN WORKED OVER...SO THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY HAS
DIMINISHED. POSSIBLE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS
MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA
ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE TOO
WARM. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR A
TIME EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED MUCH FARTHER WEST
TONIGHT...SO DON/T THINK ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTH.
REMNANTS OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING WITH
THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. BASED ON ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT THOSE TIMES AS WELL.
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM LOOK OK AT THIS
POINT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA AND A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONES BEING EARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES EARLY ON...BUT WILL BECOME
COOLER TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RAPID REFRESH AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EASTERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WILL BE NEAR LAF AND HUF AROUND 06Z AND TO IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
SO...WILL HAVE A TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
EACH SITE AND ALSO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER THAT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE THEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TIL AROUND 15Z.
SO...COULD SEE STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CEILINGS WITH LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER DARK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK/JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEARBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HIGH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND THEN BACK INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI
ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY
ALONG COLD FRONT IS LESS CLEAR CUT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON LAST EVENING/S UPPER AIR HAVE LIKELY
BEEN WORKED OVER...SO THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY HAS
DIMINISHED. POSSIBLE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS
MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA
ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE TOO
WARM. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR A
TIME EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED MUCH FARTHER WEST
TONIGHT...SO DON/T THINK ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTH.
REMNANTS OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING WITH
THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. BASED ON ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT THOSE TIMES AS WELL.
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM LOOK OK AT THIS
POINT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RAPID REFRESH AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EASTERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WILL BE NEAR LAF AND HUF AROUND 06Z AND TO IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
SO...WILL HAVE A TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
EACH SITE AND ALSO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER THAT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE THEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TIL AROUND 15Z.
SO...COULD SEE STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CEILINGS WITH LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER DARK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD START SEEING SOME PRECIP WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY COUNTY STILL UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS WARREN COUNTY. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INITIALLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CWA DURING
THE WEE EARLY HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
TRIED TO DEPICT POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IN THE HRRR AND OTHER NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN...WEAKENS...OR
ALL TOGETHER JUST STALLS OUT AND LATER WEAKENS.
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TONIGHT VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY WARREN COUNTY
INCLUDED IN SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK. SO SOME OF THESE STORMS DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING NOT TO BE
DISCOUNTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN SIMILAR FOR LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO NOW
THE ONLY COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR KIND CWA LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THAT COMMON DIVIDING LINE THAT IT THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ZERO POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL/WEAK
CHANCES FOR POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP MORE
STATIONARY.
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ALSO BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...APPEARS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE GETTING
INTO THAT UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
(OR HIGHER EVEN?) POSSIBLE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RAPID REFRESH AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EASTERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WILL BE NEAR LAF AND HUF AROUND 06Z AND TO IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
SO...WILL HAVE A TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
EACH SITE AND ALSO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER THAT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE THEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TIL AROUND 15Z.
SO...COULD SEE STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CEILINGS WITH LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER DARK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS WAS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-890 CORRIDOR OVER
NW IL INTO EASTERN IA...SEPARATING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER TO MID 80S WERE FOUND TO
THE SOUTH. DEEP MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WAS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WAS LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 4500 TO NEAR 6000 J/KG ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SO
FAR THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY A STRONG TORNADIC
SUPERCELL TRACKING W AND SW OF OTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS WITH MORE DISORGANIZED STORMS ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM
CLINTON THROUGH IOWA CITY TO OTTUMWA. WILL BE MOST CLOSELY
WATCHING STORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY...AND THE CLUSTER IN THE FAR SW...THAT WILL HAVE THE MOST
LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT AT 00Z ROUGHLY BISECTED IA FROM NE TO SW...AND
WILL END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAD DEVELOPED
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER
BOW ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPES OF 6000 J/KG IN NW MO WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IA (BEWARE OF THE GRADIENT). EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WAS 70 KNOTS...HELICITY 300 M2/S2 WITH 1 KM EHI OF 5. STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS EVIDENT ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF NEARLY
2 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN BRIEFLY QUIET
ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DETAILS WERE NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION
ABOVE BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END BY 10 OR 11 PM. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 60 ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE DVN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY OUR FAR SOUTH STILL HAVING A
CHANCE OF STORMS. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE MLI AND BRL TERMINALS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CHANGE TO THE NW AND
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLEARING SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE AREAS THAT THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY
ALONG WITH WHERE THE ANVIL FROM THE CONVECTION HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM
TODAY. OTHERWISE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. THE HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THIS. MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING
SO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
WERE MADE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING HAD STALLED
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER ACROSS THE
AREA. 24 MPE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WERE 2 AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. I80 WAS THE SEPARATION BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE THE NW ZONES
AS LIGHT WIND AN AMPLE MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WHATEVER BOUNDARY DECIDES TO
COALESCE AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A NICE DAY THAT WILL LEAD TO DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM.
THE BOUNDARY...OR LACK THERE OF...IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. A
PURELY MESOSCALE ISSUE PREDICTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS USUALLY IS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST. LOOKING AT MSAS THERE APPEARS TO BE DRIER
AIR SINKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF US WILL LIKELY DIE OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING OFBS. THROUGH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST. A LOW PRESSURE....MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
FORCE THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL RESIDE WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. HIRES MESO MODELS...SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO STORM
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS...BUT DO
BELIEVE IT MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT...JUST DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT WAY YET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SEASONABLY WARM WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND THEN
TURNING COOLER.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE OVERALL
EXCEPT POOR WED/THU WITH WAVE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO POOR PHYSICS ISSUES OF ALL SOLUTIONS. CONCEPTUAL TRENDS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD TEND TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH AGAIN DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD CONVECTION FROM SOLUTIONS NOTED THAT SUPPORTS THIS AS AN
ONGOING CONCERN FOR MID WEEK DUE TO BL MOISTURE IMBALANCES AS IS
COMMON. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS TO HI-RES
ECMWF ON FORCING AND THEN TRY AND APPLY ECMWF RAIN PACKAGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM...BREEZY AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 85 TO 90 SUGGESTED WITH A CONCERN NORTH SECTIONS MAY BE
COOLER FROM MCS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
MONITOR SINCE TENDENCY IS FOR GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO DISPLACE RAINS
TOO FAR NORTH. POPS IN NORTH MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW WITH POPS SOUTH OF
I-80 MAY BE TOO HIGH BASED ON JET AXIS AND 850 PARAMETERS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN A FAIR
DAY AND MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FURTHER IN NORTH
SECTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT...REGION FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE LATE AN MCS
WITH HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. POPS MAY NEED
RAISING WHEN TIMING ISSUES ARE BETTER RESOLVED WITH 1+ INCH AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED AND LOW TO MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. FORCING AND
MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES THAT COMBINED WITH TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT COULD RESULT IN
RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK APPEARS WILL BE ALONG AND MAYBE
SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS PATTERN MAY
NEED LOWERING BY LATER SHIFTS BY UP TO 5 DEGREES. LOWS ALSO WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY NEED LOWERING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AND
MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGHS MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND MINS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND WINDS LINGERING
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-70 AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS JUST SOUTH OF BRL FROM
NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN MO INTO EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT MAKING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT AT TERMINALS AND THE
REASON FOR LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION WITH 18Z TAFS. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF RETREATING FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND
POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. COULD THEN SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
MONDAY MORNING NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST OF I-80 WITH WEAKENING
COMPLEX... AND HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND DBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE AREAS THAT THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY
ALONG WITH WHERE THE ANVIL FROM THE CONVECTION HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM
TODAY. OTHERWISE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. THE HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THIS. MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING
SO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
WERE MADE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING HAD STALLED
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER ACROSS THE
AREA. 24 MPE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WERE 2 AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. I80 WAS THE SEPARATION BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE THE NW ZONES
AS LIGHT WIND AN AMPLE MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WHATEVER BOUNDARY DECIDES TO
COALESCE AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A NICE DAY THAT WILL LEAD TO DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM.
THE BOUNDARY...OR LACK THERE OF...IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. A
PURELY MESOSCALE ISSUE PREDICTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS USUALLY IS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST. LOOKING AT MSAS THERE APPEARS TO BE DRIER
AIR SINKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF US WILL LIKELY DIE OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING OFBS. THROUGH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST. A LOW PRESSURE....MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
FORCE THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL RESIDE WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. HIRES MESO MODELS...SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO STORM
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS...BUT DO
BELIEVE IT MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT...JUST DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT WAY YET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SEASONABLY WARM WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND THEN
TURNING COOLER.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE OVERALL
EXCEPT POOR WED/THU WITH WAVE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO POOR PHYSICS ISSUES OF ALL SOLUTIONS. CONCEPTUAL TRENDS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD TEND TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH AGAIN DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD CONVECTION FROM SOLUTIONS NOTED THAT SUPPORTS THIS AS AN
ONGOING CONCERN FOR MID WEEK DUE TO BL MOISTURE IMBALANCES AS IS
COMMON. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS TO HI-RES
ECMWF ON FORCING AND THEN TRY AND APPLY ECMWF RAIN PACKAGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM...BREEZY AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 85 TO 90 SUGGESTED WITH A CONCERN NORTH SECTIONS MAY BE
COOLER FROM MCS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
MONITOR SINCE TENDENCY IS FOR GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO DISPLACE RAINS
TOO FAR NORTH. POPS IN NORTH MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW WITH POPS SOUTH OF
I-80 MAY BE TOO HIGH BASED ON JET AXIS AND 850 PARAMETERS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN A FAIR
DAY AND MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FURTHER IN NORTH
SECTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT...REGION FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE LATE AN MCS
WITH HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. POPS MAY NEED
RAISING WHEN TIMING ISSUES ARE BETTER RESOLVED WITH 1+ INCH AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED AND LOW TO MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. FORCING AND
MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES THAT COMBINED WITH TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT COULD RESULT IN
RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK APPEARS WILL BE ALONG AND MAYBE
SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS PATTERN MAY
NEED LOWERING BY LATER SHIFTS BY UP TO 5 DEGREES. LOWS ALSO WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY NEED LOWERING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AND
MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGHS MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND MINS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT THE TAF SITES. WITH THE SUN RISING...EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO GO
AWAY. AFTER THIS SITES SHOULD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH NEAR MID EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-JO
DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE STORMS TO
TRANSITION TO A BIG WIND THREAT AS THEY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT
FOR CENTRAL IOWA...STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 02Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z. THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE
QUIET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. AT
20Z THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM OMAHA TO
ATLANTIC THEN NORTHEAST TO FORT DODGE TO FOREST CITY. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
WHERE IT HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO REALLY
DESTABILIZE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
5000-6000 CAPES ACROSS THE AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-80.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES TO THIS AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE DES
MOINES METRO AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
SO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WE SHOULD SEE STORMS BLOW UP. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WIND
THREAT AS WELL BUT THAT MAY BE EAST/SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
INDICATING A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE 850 FRONT AND
PUSHING SOUTH BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. IF THIS
HAPPENS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE GETTING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SECOND SHOT OF RAINFALL SO
I HAVE GRIDS CLEARING AFTER 06Z.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF IOWA IN THE MORNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN A
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FESTER THROUGH THE DAY AIDED BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SURFACE FRONT SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CIGS REMAINING VFR.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SITES THAT HAD AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND HOW HOT DOES IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE/NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
NOW IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS...CANADIAN...
AND THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET WELL NORTH. POSSIBLY A WEAK REAR QUADRANT
THAT MOVES ACROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SURFACE TROUGH
RESIDES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PROBLEM IN THE
BEGINNING COULD BE IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG PLUS THE MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW STRONG THE MID LIFT WILL BE. MODEL QPF IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE GETTING MORE THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY SHOWN. CHOSE TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY AND ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING
UP. A WEAKER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEM IS IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THEY ARE IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH.
THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND ONLY ABOUT
HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NAM. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR PLUS 15. SO WHERE WILL THE SURFACE FOCUS BE
AND IF THE CAP WILL BREAK. ALSO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LIFT IS IN
QUESTION. AGAIN DUE TO A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF FEATURES...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. SO ONCE AGAIN CHOSE ONLY TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD FEEL A HIGHER CHANCE IS
DESERVED.
DUE TO THE BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM THEY MAKE IT. CHOSE TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND CLOSER TO THE OUTPUT THAT HAS BEEN DOING BETTER RECENTLY.
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL POSITION CONTINUE. MAJORITY OF THE
OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO FELT BETTER ABOUT GOING COOLER. PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
HOURS SUPPORT HAVING THE AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS START THE AMPLIFICATION
PROCESS TO A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. FLOW
BECOMES SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION
OF WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
INITIALLY HAVE THE FRONT STAY OR START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL COLD INTRUSIONS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS GAVE ME DUE TO
THE INITIAL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST ACTIVE
AND WET PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT IT BECOMES DRIER AS THE RIDGE EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT WARM UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH MAY BRING STRATUS INTO KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY WINDS PRODUCES FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. ANY STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEAR INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHT COOLER
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING COOL
OUTFLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE WEST
AND AMPLIFIES BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE HAYS AND
GARDEN CITY AREAS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WASHING OUT AND LIFTING BACK NORTH. WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 100 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 71 99 69 98 / 0 10 20 0
EHA 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 73 97 70 93 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 99 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED MAINLY BY THE WARM
AIRMASS AND FLAT HOT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND +14 TO IN EXCESS OF +17 DEGREES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A LEE SURFACE IS MODELED BY THE GFS/ECMWF
ON TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF WEAK FORCED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AREA, AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT MOST LIKELY NORTH OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FIGHTING A STRONG CAP, AND ADDITIONALLY WITH WEAK FLOW SEVERE
WEATHER DOESN`T APPEAR PROBABLE. BETTER CHANCES ARE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS HIGH TERRAIN STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BE DRIVEN EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER HIGH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE MODELS AND MOS BEGIN TO INDICATE SOME
RELIEF BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE HAYS AND
GARDEN CITY AREAS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WASHING OUT AND LIFTING BACK NORTH. WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 100 70 96 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 71 99 69 97 / 0 10 20 0
EHA 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 70 101 70 95 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 73 97 70 93 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 99 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS THROWN OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND HAS
CAUSED ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. THE RUC HAS CAUGHT THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO WELL WHICH KEEPS NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SO IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANGED THE WIND FIELD. DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AFTER THIS COMPLEX GOES
PASSED...RUC DOES WANT TO SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND STILL BRING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT
AND WILL WAIT/WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING
FURTHER IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST CONCERN IS THE HEAT. STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. NAM/RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A GENERALLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103 SOUTH. LUCKILY NOT EXPECTING FULL MIXING AT 850MB WHICH BASED ON
THE PAST 5 DAYS WOULD SUPPORT READINGS ABOUT 4F HIGHER AND PRODUCE
SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS. FOR TONIGHT WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN THE HILL CITY AND
GOVE AREAS...BELOW 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD 594-596DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN AREA
OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. NOSE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THIS
FEATURE AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
OR SO IN THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FROM
FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK AND POINTS WEST WITH MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE WHERE
HEAT BUILDS BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 60S CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL
CITY TO GOVE TO TRIBUNE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING FROM TRENTON/MCCOOK EAST THROUGH NORTON BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE 18Z. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXIST. DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND LIKELY OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF GOVE...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WEST TO AROUND 70 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WITH A
LACK OF JET LEVEL FORCING...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACTUALLY WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE TRI
STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE CAP VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DOES NOT LOOK AS
IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MID LEVEL FORCING MAY HELP
INITIATE STORMS DESPITE LACK OF STRONG JET PRESENCE. GFS/ECMWF
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONED AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE SURFACE AND 850 MB BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE IS STREAMED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED VERY LITTLE WITH
DROPS OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE LOWER 90S TO THE MID 80S.
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL PRECIPITATION OCCURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST
MODELS STAYING DRY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL IS
THE ONLY FORECAST THAT IS AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SEEMED TO HEAVILY AFFECT CONSENSUS FORECASTS DESPITE OTHER
FORECASTS REMAINING DRY. LOWERED POPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN WITHIN COLLABORATIVE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE AFFECTS OF
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ARE LESSENED AND AS A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AT BOTH SITES. THE WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
09Z TO 11Z WHEN THEY DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH NEAR 14Z WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
815 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS THROWN OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND HAS
CAUSED ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. THE RUC HAS CAUGHT THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO WELL WHICH KEEPS NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SO IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANGED THE WIND FIELD. DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AFTER THIS COMPLEX GOES
PASSED...RUC DOES WANT TO SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND STILL BRING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT
AND WILL WAIT/WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING
FURTHER IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST CONCERN IS THE HEAT. STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. NAM/RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A GENERALLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103 SOUTH. LUCKILY NOT EXPECTING FULL MIXING AT 850MB WHICH BASED ON
THE PAST 5 DAYS WOULD SUPPORT READINGS ABOUT 4F HIGHER AND PRODUCE
SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS. FOR TONIGHT WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN THE HILL CITY AND
GOVE AREAS...BELOW 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD 594-596DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN AREA
OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. NOSE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THIS
FEATURE AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
OR SO IN THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FROM
FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK AND POINTS WEST WITH MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE WHERE
HEAT BUILDS BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 60S CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL
CITY TO GOVE TO TRIBUNE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING FROM TRENTON/MCCOOK EAST THROUGH NORTON BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE 18Z. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXIST. DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND LIKELY OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF GOVE...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WEST TO AROUND 70 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WITH A
LACK OF JET LEVEL FORCING...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACTUALLY WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE TRI
STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE CAP VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DOES NOT LOOK AS
IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MID LEVEL FORCING MAY HELP
INITIATE STORMS DESPITE LACK OF STRONG JET PRESENCE. GFS/ECMWF
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONED AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE SURFACE AND 850 MB BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE IS STREAMED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED VERY LITTLE WITH
DROPS OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE LOWER 90S TO THE MID 80S.
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL PRECIPITATION OCCURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST
MODELS STAYING DRY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL IS
THE ONLY FORECAST THAT IS AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SEEMED TO HEAVILY AFFECT CONSENSUS FORECASTS DESPITE OTHER
FORECASTS REMAINING DRY. LOWERED POPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN WITHIN COLLABORATIVE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN EAST WIND UNDER 10KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING
12KTS BY 20Z. FROM 21Z-00Z WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST 12-15KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER 09Z WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 13KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z OR SO
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AN EAST WIND NEAR 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED FROM
03Z-06Z THEN SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FALL BELOW 12KTS
AFTER 09Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST
OVER NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STRONGER WAVE WAS MOVING OVER
MONTANA. A COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS
THAT DO SO AS THE HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL
NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER
70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE
QUITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS TODAY. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT PATTERN,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR INTERSTATE 70 SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT THESE STORMS OUGHT TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED; AND
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SEVERE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER UTAH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. BUT UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100F, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15KT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WHILE INCREASING UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 70 101 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 100 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 73 101 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
P28 73 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
908 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 905 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Forecast is on track for the overnight period. Cirrus from
convection upstream and earlier today will remain overhead. Complex
of storms currently in southern/southeast Iowa will nose dive
southward and is expected to weaken before approaching the area but
likely to bring more cirrus for the overnight and morning hours. It
may lay out an outflow boundary which could be the focus for
thunderstorm development tomorrow.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Afternoon...
Thunderstorms to our north in Michigan are sending plenty of
subsiding cirrus our way this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
indicates our cumulus field is being held at bay because of this
flow aloft, and latest radar over western KY shows earlier cells are
decaying as well. Cannot rule out an isolated shower surviving in
our southwest.
Latest HRRR indicates a line of storms would fire in southeast
Iowa/northern Illinois and head southeast through the evening,
perhaps getting to our area as just a line of gusty winds or even a
very isolated shower by daybreak Tuesday. Would expect wherever this
boundary sets up to be the focus for further convection by late
morning or early afternoon Tuesday. NAM soundings are very unstable
for the afternoon, and surface temp/dewpoints are in line with what
we expect tomorrow. Soundings show a layer of dry air in the 600-700
mb range, allowing the chance for both larger hail and stronger
downburst winds. Bust potential for this forecast would be just how
many clouds remain from the line that comes through overnight and
how this affects surface temperatures. Clouds over LEX this hour are
keeping temperatures ~5 degrees cooler than areas in the clear! Will
highlight potential for severe wind gusts and hail in the stronger
storms with our hazardous weather outlook.
Again, highs Tuesday will depend greatly on extent of clouds in the
morning. Based on current forecast, expect highs around 90. This
should push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for most
locations. The best chance to get up to around 100 would be south of
the I-64 corridor and west of a Bardstown to Glasgow line.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an expansive ridge across the southern CONUS, placing the
Ohio Valley on the periphery of the swift northwest flow found
across much of the northern CONUS. This regime will amplify through
the end of the long term period as the southern ridge breaks down
and a trough builds into the Ohio Valley, bringing some relief from
the precip chances and the hot and humid weather we`ve experienced
as of late.
Generally low-resolution synoptic models are notorious for
struggling with convection and MCS development, so confidence in the
long term period on timing and convective coverage is generally low,
especially Wednesday. That being said, have attempted to best time
the convection using a general model blend and ensemble data. This
method brings just chance pops to the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as there does not appear to be any substantial
triggering PV anomaly to spark convection.
By Thursday, the southern ridge will begin to break down as a strong
trough dives into the northern CONUS. Timing as of now keeps much
of the convection just north of the region through much of the
daylight hours on Thursday. Good southwesterly flow ahead of an
area of low pressure coupled with some expected sunshine and 850mb
temps rising to around 20C means Thursday could end up being quite
warm, assuming clouds/precip remain to the north. Have gone with
highs in the low to mid 90s, which coupled with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, will push heat index values on either side of 100
degrees.
The trough and associated surface front will slowly push through the
region Thursday night into Friday night. Mid-level flow will be
sufficient to support some strong/severe storms, but the potential
for storms Thursday night may hinder destabilization on Friday given
the expected cloud cover. If we are able to see some sun break out
on Friday, then a few strong/severe storms will be possible. Again,
predictability in the mesoscale details at this timeframe are rather
low, but the strength of the system pushing through does support the
potential for some strong/severe storm development, especially
across southern KY on Friday. Given the slow movement of the front
through the area, we could also have some local flooding issues as
well, so that will be something to continue to monitor.
The passing cold front and building trough aloft will make for
rather pleasant conditions moving in by the weekend. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs on Saturday and
Sunday. Conditions should be generally dry Saturday night through
Sunday, as the deeper moisture finally gets shunted to the east with
the passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Should be a quiet night tonight. Fog is not expected to be a problem
given high clouds overhead and a steady southwest breeze.
Thunderstorms erupting to the northwest across Iowa and Illinois
this evening will slide southeast tonight but should weaken as they
approach the Ohio River. Can`t rule out a stray shower around dawn
at SDF, but debris clouds and a possible outflow boundary should be
the primary effects.
During the day Tuesday the atmosphere will become very unstable. As
the convective outflow and/or associated cold front move into the
region scattered thunderstorms should develop in the afternoon, some
of which could be strong.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Afternoon...
Thunderstorms to our north in Michigan are sending plenty of
subsiding cirrus our way this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
indicates our cumulus field is being held at bay because of this
flow aloft, and latest radar over western KY shows earlier cells are
decaying as well. Cannot rule out an isolated shower surviving in
our southwest.
Latest HRRR indicates a line of storms would fire in southeast
Iowa/northern Illinois and head southeast through the evening,
perhaps getting to our area as just a line of gusty winds or even a
very isolated shower by daybreak Tuesday. Would expect wherever this
boundary sets up to be the focus for further convection by late
morning or early afternoon Tuesday. NAM soundings are very unstable
for the afternoon, and surface temp/dewpoints are in line with what
we expect tomorrow. Soundings show a layer of dry air in the 600-700
mb range, allowing the chance for both larger hail and stronger
downburst winds. Bust potential for this forecast would be just how
many clouds remain from the line that comes through overnight and
how this affects surface temperatures. Clouds over LEX this hour are
keeping temperatures ~5 degrees cooler than areas in the clear! Will
highlight potential for severe wind gusts and hail in the stronger
storms with our hazardous weather outlook.
Again, highs Tuesday will depend greatly on extent of clouds in the
morning. Based on current forecast, expect highs around 90. This
should push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for most
locations. The best chance to get up to around 100 would be south of
the I-64 corridor and west of a Bardstown to Glasgow line.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an expansive ridge across the southern CONUS, placing the
Ohio Valley on the periphery of the swift northwest flow found
across much of the northern CONUS. This regime will amplify through
the end of the long term period as the southern ridge breaks down
and a trough builds into the Ohio Valley, bringing some relief from
the precip chances and the hot and humid weather we`ve experienced
as of late.
Generally low-resolution synoptic models are notorious for
struggling with convection and MCS development, so confidence in the
long term period on timing and convective coverage is generally low,
especially Wednesday. That being said, have attempted to best time
the convection using a general model blend and ensemble data. This
method brings just chance pops to the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as there does not appear to be any substantial
triggering PV anomaly to spark convection.
By Thursday, the southern ridge will begin to break down as a strong
trough dives into the northern CONUS. Timing as of now keeps much
of the convection just north of the region through much of the
daylight hours on Thursday. Good southwesterly flow ahead of an
area of low pressure coupled with some expected sunshine and 850mb
temps rising to around 20C means Thursday could end up being quite
warm, assuming clouds/precip remain to the north. Have gone with
highs in the low to mid 90s, which coupled with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, will push heat index values on either side of 100
degrees.
The trough and associated surface front will slowly push through the
region Thursday night into Friday night. Mid-level flow will be
sufficient to support some strong/severe storms, but the potential
for storms Thursday night may hinder destabilization on Friday given
the expected cloud cover. If we are able to see some sun break out
on Friday, then a few strong/severe storms will be possible. Again,
predictability in the mesoscale details at this timeframe are rather
low, but the strength of the system pushing through does support the
potential for some strong/severe storm development, especially
across southern KY on Friday. Given the slow movement of the front
through the area, we could also have some local flooding issues as
well, so that will be something to continue to monitor.
The passing cold front and building trough aloft will make for
rather pleasant conditions moving in by the weekend. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs on Saturday and
Sunday. Conditions should be generally dry Saturday night through
Sunday, as the deeper moisture finally gets shunted to the east with
the passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Should be a quiet night tonight. Fog is not expected to be a problem
given high clouds overhead and a steady southwest breeze.
Thunderstorms erupting to the northwest across Iowa and Illinois
this evening will slide southeast tonight but should weaken as they
approach the Ohio River. Can`t rule out a stray shower around dawn
at SDF, but debris clouds and a possible outflow boundary should be
the primary effects.
During the day Tuesday the atmosphere will become very unstable. As
the convective outflow and/or associated cold front move into the
region scattered thunderstorms should develop in the afternoon, some
of which could be strong.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
554 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 554 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
After discussing with SPC and JKL, have dropped several counties
from the northeast edge of the watch, since all the action is
concentrated across west central and southern Kentucky and drifting
southward. Considered dropping Hardin and LaRue counties as well,
but decided to see what the storms around Leitchfield do first.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX. Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better. Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.
Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight. However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now. Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.
Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in. VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Mesoscale......13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I64 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKAY. BASED ON SFC TEMPS WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORM FIRING OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AT MOST TWO. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW THAT HAS DROPPED INTO
THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THE LOCATION
OF THAT BOUNDARY WOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF SDF TO DVK
AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST THOUGHTS ALONG WITH
GRID UPDATES TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
GRIDS...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. SEEING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM MCS IS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THUS FAR AND FOR
A LARGE PART THIS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...ALLOWING OUR AIR MASS TO
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. BEST SHEAR AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SEVERAL OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...
DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY 19-21Z BEFORE BRINGING THE LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT REALLY
SEEING THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO INITIATE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LEFT OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
INITIATING BY OR AFTER 3 PM...BUT BEFORE 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
SDF TO DVK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM.
BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE HIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTROMS IN THE TAFS AND WILL
ADJUST ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERTSORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR MORE FOG THROUGH THE OEVRNIGHT. WEST...SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AT AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASE BACK UP AROUND 5KT
MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX. Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better. Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.
Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight. However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now. Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.
Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in. VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I64 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKAY. BASED ON SFC TEMPS WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORM FIRING OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AT MOST TWO. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW THAT HAS DROPPED INTO
THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THE LOCATION
OF THAT BOUNDARY WOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF SDF TO DVK
AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST THOUGHTS ALONG WITH
GRID UPDATES TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
GRIDS...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. SEEING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM MCS IS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THUS FAR AND FOR
A LARGE PART THIS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...ALLOWING OUR AIR MASS TO
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. BEST SHEAR AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SEVERAL OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...
DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY 19-21Z BEFORE BRINGING THE LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT REALLY
SEEING THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO INITIATE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LEFT OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
INITIATING BY OR AFTER 3 PM...BUT BEFORE 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
SDF TO DVK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM.
BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE HIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTROMS IN THE TAFS AND WILL
ADJUST ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERTSORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR MORE FOG THROUGH THE OEVRNIGHT. WEST...SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AT AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASE BACK UP AROUND 5KT
MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
116 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Wanted to give an updated on expected storm evolution this
afternoon. The latest guidance and satellite trends give growing
confidence that the storm initiation zone may end up being along and
south of the Ohio River. A thick cirrus shield from the convection
near Saint Louis, MO continues to push into southern Indiana and
even northern KY. This cloud canopy has provided a pretty good
differential heating boundary, with southern Indiana in the lower
70s and Louisville sitting at 80 degrees. Additionally, a dew point
gradient can be found along the Ohio River, with low to mid 70s to
the south and mid/upper 60s to the north. Therefore, think storms
will likely initiate along this boundary this afternoon (as the
latest HRRR runs suggest), then spread into portions of central and
even southern KY.
The good news with this more southern initiation is that southern IN
may see less of a threat for strong/severe storms. Additionally,
the deep-layer shear (0-6km) decreases to the south of
central/southern KY, so storms look to only have around 30 knots of
shear to work with. This amount of shear will still be sufficient
for a few severe storms, with the main threat being damaging winds
and hail to around quarter-sized being a secondary threat.
Will have to watch the upstream evolution today for a potential MCS
this afternoon. Guidance is split on whether the convection now
firing near Kansas City, MO will organize into a linear system that
may push into our area this evening. Will leave forecast as is for
now and continue to monitor this scenario over the coming hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Updated at 317 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...
The remnants of the MCS that has been moving through IL and IN this
morning is about to move into our southern Indiana counties. These
storms are expected to continue to weaken and dissipate across the
area this morning as the move into a more stable airmass.
The main concern today will be the possibility of strong to severe
storms this afternoon. A slowly moving from will approach from the
north this afternoon. A weak vortmax will interact with this
boundary this afternoon as the atmosphere is destabilizing, sparking
storm development by mid to late afternoon. There are a couple of
things making this forecast tricky for the afternoon, especially
with timing, but also the area that will see the most storms. The
first is where any remnant boundaries from this morning`s convection
end up. These could serve as a focus for storm initiation. The other
will be cloud debris from the MCS. How quickly this erodes and how
thick it is will play a role in destabilization as well. The edge
may serve as a differential heating boundary. The models are
struggling with this as well. GFS/NAM place the highest chance for
storms across southern IN and north central KY closer to the front
and the better upper level support. However, the WRF NMM and ARW
have convection firing south of the Ohio River and moving to the
south through the afternoon hours. Evolution of the cloud shield and
boundaries definitely bears monitoring today.
Regardless of placement, some strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible. Plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the front
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s expected. Soundings show the
potential for 1000-3000 J/kg CAPE. However, shear will be marginal
around 30 knots and maximized across the northern half of the
forecast area. Strong winds will be the main threat with the
strongest storms with some small hail possible.
Convection should diminish late this evening and things should be
mostly quiet overnight. Another wave will move through on Monday
sparking storms in the late morning to afternoon. The best chance
for storms will be across southern IN and portions of the
Bluegrass.
The other concern will be the hot temperatures. Highs today will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lower 90s in most locations on
Monday. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s to low 100s.
These high heat index values can lead to overheating if precautions
are not taken.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
The majority of the week will feature ridging over much of the
southern U.S. with active westerly flow over the northern U.S. The
Ohio Valley will be on the edge of these zones making for a tricky
forecast as far as precipitation chances. Troughing does look to
attempt to push into the Midwest next weekend, providing at least a
cool down but continued on and off precipitation chances.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Tues and Wed will be the hottest days in the long term period with
ridging strongest in our area on these days. Look for temps to top
out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Humid conditions will exist
Tues/Wed with dewpts reaching the low to mid 70s both days. The
humidity combined with the hot temps will result in heat indices
reaching the 100-105 degree range each afternoon. While these
numbers fall just shy of heat advisory criteria, feel the hot/humid
conditions are still worth a mention in an SPS. Night time lows
will stay in the low to mid 70s.
As for precipitation chances, a sfc front should drop south into the
Ohio Valley late in the day Tues providing a focus for
showers/storms. Although we`ll lack good wind shear, plenty of
instability will exist with CAPE values on the order of 3000-4000
J/KG. Thus, think that some strong storms will be possible with
gusty winds and potentially some small hail being the main threats.
Late Tue night, models indicate an MCS will develop to our WNW and
push ESE into our region during the day on Wed. Again wind shear
looks unimpressive but CAPE values have the potential to soar quite
high again if we can get enough breaks in the clouds Wed morning.
Thus, we could again see strong storms Wed as well.
Thursday - Saturday...
For Thursday and Friday, the ridge will start to break down over the
Ohio Valley allowing the active westerly flow to sink into our
region. This type of flow will feature multiple hard to time
shortwaves which will cause showers/storms. Have limited POPs to
20-50% in the long term period due to lack of confidence in timing.
Better forcing for storms may be present for next weekend if a more
significant shortwave trough can develop as some models suggest.
Temperatures/humidity should generally be on the decline through the
weekend. While highs on Thurs should still be in the upper
80s/lower 90s, dewpts should be slightly lower resulting in heat
indices below 100. By Saturday, high temps should fall back into
the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX. Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better. Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.
Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight. However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now. Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.
Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in. VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
GRIDS...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. SEEING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM MCS IS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THUS FAR AND FOR
A LARGE PART THIS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...ALLOWING OUR AIR MASS TO
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. BEST SHEAR AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SEVERAL OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...
DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY 19-21Z BEFORE BRINGING THE LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT REALLY
SEEING THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO INITIATE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LEFT OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
INITIATING BY OR AFTER 3 PM...BUT BEFORE 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1022 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Wanted to give an updated on expected storm evolution this
afternoon. The latest guidance and satellite trends give growing
confidence that the storm initiation zone may end up being along and
south of the Ohio River. A thick cirrus shield from the convection
near Saint Louis, MO continues to push into southern Indiana and
even northern KY. This cloud canopy has provided a pretty good
differential heating boundary, with southern Indiana in the lower
70s and Louisville sitting at 80 degrees. Additionally, a dew point
gradient can be found along the Ohio River, with low to mid 70s to
the south and mid/upper 60s to the north. Therefore, think storms
will likely initiate along this boundary this afternoon (as the
latest HRRR runs suggest), then spread into portions of central and
even southern KY.
The good news with this more southern initiation is that southern IN
may see less of a threat for strong/severe storms. Additionally,
the deep-layer shear (0-6km) decreases over central/southern KY, so
storms look to only have around 30 knots of shear to work with.
This amount of shear will still be sufficient for a few severe
storms, with the main threat being damaging winds and hail to
around quarter-sized being a secondary threat.
Will have to watch the upstream evolution today for a potential MCS
this afternoon. Guidance is split on whether the convection now
firing near Kansas City, MO will organize into a linear system that
may push into our area this evening. Will leave forecast as is for
now and continue to monitor this scenario over the coming hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Updated at 317 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...
The remnants of the MCS that has been moving through IL and IN this
morning is about to move into our southern Indiana counties. These
storms are expected to continue to weaken and dissipate across the
area this morning as the move into a more stable airmass.
The main concern today will be the possibility of strong to severe
storms this afternoon. A slowly moving from will approach from the
north this afternoon. A weak vortmax will interact with this
boundary this afternoon as the atmosphere is destabilizing, sparking
storm development by mid to late afternoon. There are a couple of
things making this forecast tricky for the afternoon, especially
with timing, but also the area that will see the most storms. The
first is where any remnant boundaries from this morning`s convection
end up. These could serve as a focus for storm initiation. The other
will be cloud debris from the MCS. How quickly this erodes and how
thick it is will play a role in destabilization as well. The edge
may serve as a differential heating boundary. The models are
struggling with this as well. GFS/NAM place the highest chance for
storms across southern IN and north central KY closer to the front
and the better upper level support. However, the WRF NMM and ARW
have convection firing south of the Ohio River and moving to the
south through the afternoon hours. Evolution of the cloud shield and
boundaries definitely bears monitoring today.
Regardless of placement, some strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible. Plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the front
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s expected. Soundings show the
potential for 1000-3000 J/kg CAPE. However, shear will be marginal
around 30 knots and maximized across the northern half of the
forecast area. Strong winds will be the main threat with the
strongest storms with some small hail possible.
Convection should diminish late this evening and things should be
mostly quiet overnight. Another wave will move through on Monday
sparking storms in the late morning to afternoon. The best chance
for storms will be across southern IN and portions of the
Bluegrass.
The other concern will be the hot temperatures. Highs today will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lower 90s in most locations on
Monday. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s to low 100s.
These high heat index values can lead to overheating if precautions
are not taken.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
The majority of the week will feature ridging over much of the
southern U.S. with active westerly flow over the northern U.S. The
Ohio Valley will be on the edge of these zones making for a tricky
forecast as far as precipitation chances. Troughing does look to
attempt to push into the Midwest next weekend, providing at least a
cool down but continued on and off precipitation chances.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Tues and Wed will be the hottest days in the long term period with
ridging strongest in our area on these days. Look for temps to top
out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Humid conditions will exist
Tues/Wed with dewpts reaching the low to mid 70s both days. The
humidity combined with the hot temps will result in heat indices
reaching the 100-105 degree range each afternoon. While these
numbers fall just shy of heat advisory criteria, feel the hot/humid
conditions are still worth a mention in an SPS. Night time lows
will stay in the low to mid 70s.
As for precipitation chances, a sfc front should drop south into the
Ohio Valley late in the day Tues providing a focus for
showers/storms. Although we`ll lack good wind shear, plenty of
instability will exist with CAPE values on the order of 3000-4000
J/KG. Thus, think that some strong storms will be possible with
gusty winds and potentially some small hail being the main threats.
Late Tue night, models indicate an MCS will develop to our WNW and
push ESE into our region during the day on Wed. Again wind shear
looks unimpressive but CAPE values have the potential to soar quite
high again if we can get enough breaks in the clouds Wed morning.
Thus, we could again see strong storms Wed as well.
Thursday - Saturday...
For Thursday and Friday, the ridge will start to break down over the
Ohio Valley allowing the active westerly flow to sink into our
region. This type of flow will feature multiple hard to time
shortwaves which will cause showers/storms. Have limited POPs to
20-50% in the long term period due to lack of confidence in timing.
Better forcing for storms may be present for next weekend if a more
significant shortwave trough can develop as some models suggest.
Temperatures/humidity should generally be on the decline through the
weekend. While highs on Thurs should still be in the upper
80s/lower 90s, dewpts should be slightly lower resulting in heat
indices below 100. By Saturday, high temps should fall back into
the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
A front will approach the region today from the north. This will
bring a chance for scattered showers and storms to SDF and LEX this
afternoon. Have left VCTS out of BWG at this time due to more
uncertainty in the chances for thunderstorms there. However, it will
be monitored closely. Winds today will pick up through the morning
and become gusty out of the WSW during the day.
Storms and winds will be decreasing this evening with quiet
conditions and light winds out of the WSW through the overnight
hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING
OUT. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN
QUICKLY FROM AN UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND LIKELY CAUSE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WHERE FOG HAS ALREADY SET UP. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME FOR MORE THAN A
VCTS/CB MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION...RADARS ARE QUIET FOR NOW, SOME ENHANCED CU NOTED
AROUND BPT, LCH, AND AEX. EXPECT THE CU TO DEVELOP AROUND AEX
SHORTLY PER LATEST HRRR BUT WILL ONLY GO AS FAR AS VCTS. BPT HAS
SOME MVFR CU CIGS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING OUT SOON. WHILE MOISTURE
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
CAPPING TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SO I BACKED OFF MENTION OF TS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. SOME LIGHT FOG TO MVFR APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR AEX LATE TNITE.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET...SO NO PLANS FOR AN UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FEW CLDS HOVERING AROUND 022 TO 028 THIS AM. CLOUDS BUILDING THRU
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTN
THAT WILL SHUT DOWN AROUND SS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF BILL OVER E PA...LIFTING OUT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROF. ACROSS OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING. LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...TEMPS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG AND S OF
I-10 TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER TX...COMBINING WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...
EXPECTED TO YIELD ISO-SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION.
COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE ENHANCED OVER INLAND SE TX WHERE THE
INTERACTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SEA-BREEZE FRONT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MON/TUE...WITH
DECREASED POPS AS WELL. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOWS...WILL CONTINUE.
BY WED & THU...A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST IS EXPECTED AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...POPS INCREASED DURING THIS PERIOD. BY FRI & SAT...MOISTURE
AND FOCUS DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS OVER THE N
GULF.
MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CONTINUES RIDGING OVER THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 76 94 76 / 20 10 20 10
LCH 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 10
BPT 91 77 91 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF BILL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
610 AM UPDATE...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF
BILL ARE OVERSPREADING DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE RAIN LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS/QPF FOR THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM BILL ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINS OF BILL WILL ABSORB
MUCH OF THE ENERGY THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
SOLUTIONS FROM ALL OF THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
DOWNEAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
STEADY RAIN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS BAXTER STATE PARK AND HOULTON BY
LATE MORNING. NORTH OF THIS AREA THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS BUT IT
MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY. THE RAIN WILL PULL
EAST AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF AND POPS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. SOME OF THE RAIN TODAY WILL FALL HEAVILY AT
TIMES DOWN EAST AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WITH A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS...WHICH PERHAPS WAS SUFFERING FROM CNVCTV FEEDBACK ERRORS
WITH ITS SOLUTION WITH A SEPARATE S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS...
HAS NOW COME IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 00Z DTMNSTC MODELS SUCH AS THE
CANGEM...ECMWF...AND NAM WHICH NOW INDICATE THE LIONS SHARE OF
RNFL TO BE OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. THIS RESULTED IN
A SIG LOWERING OF QPF AND POPS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD THIRD...AND
SPCLY THE FAR N...WHERE LITTLE OR EVEN NO RNFL IS XPCTD. RATHER
THEN USE WPC 6 HRLY QPF GRIDS...WE STAYED WITH A BLEND OF DTMNSTC
MODEL 6 HRLY QPF THRU MON GIVEN THE NOW...UNIFORM TREND OF THE
DTMNSTC MODELS SO CLOSE TO THIS PTN OF THE FCST. ANY REMAINING
SHWRS SHOULD END MON EVE AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE WELL E OVR THE OPEN N ATLC...AND A WEAK SFC
HI PRES MOVES E TOWARD THE FA FROM QB. THIS SFC RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES E OF THE FA BY TUE MORN IN THE FAST WRLY FLOW REGIME ALF.
THE NEXT S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN THEN QUICKLY ADVCS TOWARD THE FA
TUE AFTN FROM CNTRL QB. RNFL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.15 TO
0.35 INCHES BY 00Z WED...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LGT RNFL POSSIBLE
TUE EVE AS AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE FA. TYPICAL OF THE MODELS...
THE GFS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HRS FASTER WITH ONSET AND EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO WE WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND OF TMG BETWEEN ALL OF
THE FCST MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS WERE AGAIN BUMPED UPWARDS
TO A MAX OF CATEGORICAL. OTHERWISE...THE RECENT TREND OF COOL
DYTM HI TEMPS AND NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS WILL CONT MON THRU
TUE.
$$
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OTHERWISE WEAK S/WVS FROM CNTRL CAN WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FA TUE NGT INTO SAT...DURG WHICH TM...AN UPPER LOW FROM LABRADOR
DROPS SWRD OVR THE ERN MARITIMES. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED...SPCLY OVR NRN/ERN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT SHWRS FROM TM TO TM...SPCLY IN THE AFTN TO ERLY EVE HRS...WHEN
LOW TO MID LVL INSTABILITY FROM DYTM HTG CAN BE XPCTD. BELOW
NORMAL HI TEMPS AND NEAR TO JUST BLO NORMAL LOW TEMPS WILL CONT...
WITH SOME WRMG POSSIBLE BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TONIGHT. AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE TODAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...MVFR CLGS AND BRIEF VSBYS XPCTD
MOST TAF SITES MON WITH SC CLD CVR AND SHWRS...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR XPCTD MON NGT...CONT INTO TUE MORN. CLDS AND VSBYS WILL THEN
LOWER MVFR TUE AFTN ALL TAF SITE WITH THE ADVC OF SHWRS FROM THE
W...LOWERING TO IFR TUE NGT. CONDITIONS THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
ON WED...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES TAKING LONGEST TO IMPROVE...PERHAPS
AS LONG AS WED EVE. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL OVER ALL SITES WED NGT
THROUGH THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY A FEW HOURS AS THE WIND IS STILL LIGHT AND THE SEAS ONLY 1 TO 2
FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT THE
WIND AND SEAS TO INCREASE BY LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD...XCPT FOR A BRIEF PD WITH A
SRLY WIND FETCH TUE INTO TUE EVE WHERE WVS IN PARTICULAR COULD
REACH SCA CRITERIA MSLY OVR OUR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ABOUT 85
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE
CWF FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/VJN
MARINE...CB/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...MOVING THROUGH AND
STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST HAS RESULTED IN
A GOOD BIT OF CLEARING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DRYING
TREND...ALTHOUGH VORT MAX WHICH REMAINS FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOW OVER WVA. THE HRRR (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME OTHER MODELS)
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE. MAY
MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST BUT OTHERWISE
THINK THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RISK COMES MUCH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE BEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR...INSTBY AND FORCING IS TO OUR NW...BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THE ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS DESIGNATED FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
WITH A QUICK RISE INTO THE 80S SO FAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL TREND WITH THESE COLD FRONTS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
HAS BEEN FOR THEIR WEAKENING/STALLING AS THEY REACH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN.
ATTM THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
VA BY MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER HEADING EAST
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK TO REACH
AREAS FURTHER EAST AFTR PEAK HEATING...WITH INSTABILITY DCRSNG.
WOULD LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SCT
TSTMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN WEAKENING...WITH
THEN REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE WLY FLOW INJECTS IN
STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STALLS. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE A BIT...BUT SHOULD BE MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN/CONVECTION TAPERS OFF BY 12Z MON MORNING...WITH A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH BY MON AFTN...WHICH COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR AFTN
CONVECTION...MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING MON EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT.
TUES MORNING REMAINS DRY...WITH INCRG POPS BY THE AFTN WITH AN
UPPER LVL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE REGION HAS ALREADY BEEN PLACED IN A
SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE MODELS HAVING BEEN HINTING AT THE SVR
POTENTIAL NOW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINUING ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S YET AGAIN WILL LEAD TO A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS COUPLED WITH SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KTS
SHOULD LEAD TO SCT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS. HEAT
INDICES MAY EXCEED 100 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 4...OVERALL PATTERN
SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN
80S...LOWS IN M/U60S)...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARD WEEKS
END. DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY IN WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS. EXCEPTION TO DIURNAL STORMS WOULD BE TSTM
COMPLEXES THAT FORM TO OUR WEST AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW. INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY WITH WIND FIELD...THINGS THAT ARE
TOO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN OUR
CLIMO PEAK SVR SEASON...AND WIND FIELD REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEK...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WNW
GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENING...THOUGH MAINLY KMRB/KCHO/KIAD.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SVR...WITH STRONG WINDS
AND SOME HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...WINDS WILL BE WLY THIS
REMAINING...BACKING TO THE SW BY THIS AFTN...ALL 12 KTS OR LESS.
VFR CONDITIONS TUES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. EACH AFTN HAS THE
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH EACH BRINGING THE CHC OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST IS
RESULTING IN WNW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WHILE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A
SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM. TSTMS PSBL THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
TOUCH SCA LEVELS MONDAY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...BUT TOO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE ATTM TO ISSUE A SCA.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUE AND AGAIN WED. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THU...EXCEPT IN ISO TSTM
ACTIVITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ADVISORY CONTINUES AT ANNAPOLIS UNTIL WATER LEVELS FALL LATER THIS
MORNING. APPEARS BALTIMORE WILL BE CLOSE BUT MAY FALL JUST SHORT.
WILL BE ASSESSING ALEXANDRIA AS HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE.
GOOD NW WINDS TODAY SHOULD TAKE THE PRESSURE OFF BY PUSHING A LITTLE
OF THIS EXCESS OUT OF THE BAY. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED BYD
THE UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...SEARS/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/ADS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. THE
RESIDUAL MCV GENERATED FROM THE LARGE MCS EARLIER TODAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR NW LOWER MI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SHRA OVER NRN
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WERE MOVING IN.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHEST SB/MU CAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM NW WI THROUGH UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KT/25-35KT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. EVEN WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CAPE RECOVERY...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES WITH THE PRES RISE
MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NW
WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY. THAT WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHIFTING BACK TO THIS WEEK...THE FIRST WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT
IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THE BEST FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. DID BRUSH THE
KEWEENAW WITH THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A DECENT NUMBER OF
MODELS SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE REST
OF THE AREA TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE TROUGH BEING
OVER THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/FORCING AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREAS AND INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE
FROM CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY WESTWARD TOWARDS ONTONAGON COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER VALUES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG (BEST INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND TIED TO THE STRONG STORMS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAIRLY STRONG (APPROACHING 50KTS)...BUT
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...THAT IS ALL TIED TO THE STRONG JET
BETWEEN 5-6KM. THUS...THINK THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20KTS
ARE MORE REASONABLE AND BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
WHILE THAT FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAILING IT THAT
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER (ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC). THOSE WAVES WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
JULY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015RAPID CHANGE AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WIL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE HIGHER RES MODEL SCENARIO...SHOWS AN
ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO SRN WI OR NRN IL
ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN
TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN.
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY THROUGH 18Z.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF IN THE
MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF
50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS IS CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. A LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO
MON EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE HIGHER RES
MODELS SHOWS AN ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO
SRN WI OR NRN IL ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PCPN. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY
THROUGH 18Z.
NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE
WEST HALF IN THE MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
305K- 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE 0-
6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW VLIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS COULD
REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT UNDER A MOIST S-SE FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKER TOWARD
SATURATION. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS MAY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KIWD AND KCMX SO KEPT
FOG/STRATUS OUT OF FCST THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO SUN EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MI WAS EXITING THE AREA LEAVING MAINLY JUST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OF DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHRTWV OVER NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ND
AND SE SASK.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHRA INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV THAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AFTER
03Z. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL SHOULD DEVELOP. NNW UPSLOPE 10-15 KNOT 950-
900 MB FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUN...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASK/ND SHRTWVS EARLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WEAK SFC
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE SRN CWA FROM NEAR IMT-
MNM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MI BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700
MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO SUN EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE RAIN TODAY WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MI WAS EXITING THE AREA LEAVING MAINLY JUST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OF DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHRTWV OVER NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ND
AND SE SASK.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHRA INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV THAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AFTER
03Z. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL SHOULD DEVELOP. NNW UPSLOPE 10-15 KNOT 950-
900 MB FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUN...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASK/ND SHRTWVS EARLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WEAK SFC
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE SRN CWA FROM NEAR IMT-
MNM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MI BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700
MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY IS ACTUALLY TWO
SEPARATE WAVES AT THIS TIME...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
OTHER OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE WEST OF OREGON. THESE TWO WAVES WILL
MERGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A LOW AVERAGING 1000MB WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST...TRACKING FROM EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS BOTH ON THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIKELY LOCATED IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THAT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AS THAT WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 35-40KT
850MB JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED. WHILE SOME
MODELS DO TRY TO SHIFT IT NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPRESS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
ASSUMING THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THINK THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE AND GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
POTENTIAL EXPERIENCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THE DYNAMICS OF
THE SYSTEM...IF THE INSTABILITY OR WARM FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A WEST TO EAST
DIMINISHMENT OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED
WINDS UP BASED OFF ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND
35KTS. THAT WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.P.. THINK THE MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON MONDAY EVENING AND SHORELINES
ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PUSH THE FOG ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING ON
TUESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THEN DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE RIDGE IS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE SOURCE REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. INSTABILITY
IS ALSO LIMITED AND WILL KEEP VALUES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH DIURNAL HEATING ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INCREASE POTENTIAL SOME.
A WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE NOTABLE ITEM IS
THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THAT IDEA...AND EVEN SHOW HINTS OF THAT
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE TOWARDS THE FOURTH OF JULY. IF THAT SETUP
OCCURS...THE U.P. WOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE END OF JUNE AND START OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO SUN EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE RAIN TODAY WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER THIS EVENING AS
LATEST SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE SITTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO GAIN MOMENTUM OVER NW WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE ON GOING CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS...WHERE A
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH DEEPENING H85/SFC LOW WILL
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...WHICH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DLH CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY.
THE SHORT WAVES WITH SFC TROUGH/H85 LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE CAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
SEASONABLE TO MILD WEEK AHEAD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MID/LATE WEEK
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE WILL BE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 100KT JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING QUIET
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUES INTO
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE TO MILD.
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FOLLOWING
A LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY END BY 06Z AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY SUNNY AND DRY DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTING EAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT SHEAR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 35-40 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD
THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
HEADED TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
COMPLEX...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM LATE
TUESDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT TOUGH TO
DETERMINE WHICH DAY WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT NO
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN 50S.
FRI...SAT...SUN...SEASONABLE TO MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUING TO
BE IN THE PATH OF A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...AND ALSO DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR HUDSON
BAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPS AGAIN MORE OF THE SAME...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TURNING MVFR TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO INCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING AN INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BIT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR WHAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIKE THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
NOW DECIDED TO STICK WITH VCTS MENTIONS AT MOST SITES. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ROLLING THROUGH INL/HIB THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 72 53 76 / 50 70 10 0
INL 54 67 51 75 / 70 80 20 20
BRD 61 77 55 78 / 70 70 0 0
HYR 58 75 56 76 / 30 70 10 0
ASX 54 74 55 76 / 20 70 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
NICE AFTERNOON UNFOLDING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FORECAST FROM
THE OVERNIGHT IS WORKING OUT NICELY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL ON
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE MID 80S. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS TO REMOVE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION AS RAP
SB/MLCAPE FORECAST SHOW NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE MPX AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GIVES US A NICE CLEAN SLATE FROM WHICH TO WORK
WITH FOR THE MAIN SHOW WEATHER-WISE FOR LIKELY THE NEXT WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TWO WAVES OF INTEREST. ONE
IS OVER SRN ALBERTA WITH THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS OREGON. THE NRN
STREAM WAVE IS ALREADY SPARKING OFF THUNDERSTORM IN THE ND/MT/SASK
BORDER REGION. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NW MPX CWA BY 6Z.
AS WE GET TOWARD 6Z...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL BE OUT
OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WITH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING
THIS WAVE LEADING TO ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN SODAK. BASED ON REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS AND STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION SWATHS...LOOKS LIKE THESE TWO WAVES WILL MAINTAIN
THEIR SEPARATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COMING OUT OF SODAK AND
ACROSS SRN MN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND GOING INTO SE WI BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TWO SCENARIOS WE ARE SEEING IN THE GUIDANCE IS 1) THE NRN WAVE
REMAINS DOMINATE...DRIVING ONE COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN...WITH
NOT MUCH SOUTH. 2) THE NRN COMPLEX DIES OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL MN...WITH THE SRN COMPLEX ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 9Z AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA BY 18Z. THE GEM IS ABOUT
THE ONLY MODEL PLAYING INTO SCENARIO 1...SO CURRENT GRIDS ARE GOING
DOWN THE SCENARIO 2 ROUTE...WHICH IN ONE FLAVOR OR ANOTHER IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR/ARW/NMM/ECMWF/NAM/GFS. FROM THE SEVERE
THREAT...THE NRN COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A WIND
GUST OR TWO...BUT THE SEVERE RISK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
REALLY HINGES ON HOW THE SRN WAVE EVOLVES.
THE SEVERE PARAMETERS FOR SCENARIO 2 CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH
A 110 KT UPPER JET AND 80 KT WRLY MID LEVEL JET STREAK AS MUCAPE
UPWARDS OF 4000 J/KG COMES UP OUT OF IOWA. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING
MCS. FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES CAN WE OVERCOME A
STABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MUCAPE VALUES NOTED ABOVE RESULT FROM LIFTING A PARCEL OFF A WARM
NOSE CENTERED AROUND THE H9 LEVEL. IF THIS STABLE LAYER HOLDS...THEN
WE WOULD LIKELY SEE JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX CAN OVERCOME THIS STABLE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND
EVENT. IN FACT...THERE IS POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DERECHO OUT OF THIS EVENT...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FROM
ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA ALL THE WAY TOWARD DETROIT THROUGH THE COURSE
OF MONDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LATER COULD COME TRUE
BASED ON STORM MOTION. CORFIDI VECTORS AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE
BOWING SEGMENT IN THE HI-RES ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECAST SUPPORT A
STORM MOTION OF 60-65 MPH...SO JUST THAT ON ITS OWN COULD LEAD TO A
LOT OF ISSUES. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE THOUGH...THIS TYPE OF STORM MOTION
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...AS PWATS WILL BE BE PUSHING 2
INCHES AS THE SRN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF MONDAY...THE MORNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH
CLEAN US OUT...WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING THE ERN MPX CWA A LITTLE
AFTER 18Z. BY THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE BEAUTIFUL...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND BREEZY NW WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTING 25-30 MPH OUT IN WRN MN AS WE DRY OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD WEATHERWISE AS
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO A
RIDGE IN THE WEST/TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
FOR MANY DAYS NOW ON THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ESSENTIALLY RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
FORECASTWISE...IT LOOKS DRY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...WEAK PURTABATIONS IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIODS WITH THE BEST AGREEMENT ARE LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS LOOK LIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
COMMON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TSRA ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAVORED THE IDEA OF THE
GFS/HRRR FOR THESE TAFS. WITH THAT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NODAK THAT WILL SEND A COMPLEX OF
TSRA INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 6Z. HENCE BRINGING SHRA MENTION IN MUCH
EARLIER FOR AXN/STC. AS THIS IS GOING ON...WE SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK THAT WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY TSRA COMPLEX...ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 9Z.
FORWARD MOTION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 60 KTS...SO
IT SHOULD WAIST NO TIME IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES AROUND 12Z AND PUSHING INTO EAU BY 15Z. IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SRN SYSTEM. PUT SOME MVFR
CIGS IN FOR BEHIND THIS ANTICIPATED COMPLEX...BUT HAVE LESS
CONFIDENCE ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY OF THAT WILL BE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
STORMS IMPACTING MSP DURING THE PEAK OF THE MORNING RUSH...SO
IMPACT TO TRAFFIC COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THE NODAK COMPLEX BUILDS...HRRR IS
INDICATING THE SOUTH END BEING WELL SOUTH OF I-94. IF THE HRRR IS
RIGHT...WE COULD SEE ONE ROUND OF STORMS AROUND 9Z...WITH THE
SODAK BATCH GETTING HERE CLOSER TO 12Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW...PER FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ILLUSTRATE MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. BY MID AFTERNOON...HI RES MODELS INDICATE POCKETS OF
1500-2000 J/KG ML CAPES DEVELOPING FROM WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A DRY SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL BECOME THE FOCI
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AS STOUT MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS APPEARS LIKELY...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HIGHLY
IMPRESSIVE DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MN DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...BY BOTH GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. THIS WILL POSE A RISK
FOR SEVERE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
FROM A BIG PICTURE PERSPECTIVE...RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WAS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...WILL LAY OUT EAST-TO-WEST AND OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH
BETWEEN THE I-70 AND I-90 CORRIDORS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST TO WATCH...AS
FORECAST ANALOGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT ALONG THE EAST/WEST ORIENTED
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THE NUMBER 1 CIPS ANALOG ACCORDING TO THE 21.00 NAM IS MAY31
1998...WHICH WAS A HIGH END DERECHO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. GIVEN THAT INFORMATION...A THOROUGH INVESTIGATION OF THE
MONDAY 12-24Z TIME PERIOD IS WARRANTED. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...12Z MONDAY...AN MCS SHOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW THINGS STAND OUT IN THE FORECAST MODELS.
FIRST IS THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. THE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
COMPONENT YIELD 60 TO 80KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE...THE
0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45KTS AND IS ORIENTED
EAST/WEST...WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL TO A BOW ECHO AND PROMOTES THE
UPDRAFT PLACEMENT ABOVE THE COLD POOL WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR A
LONG LIFE CYCLE OF THE BOW.
LOOKING BACK AT THE DATA FROM THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THE
EVENTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM A SHEAR PERSPECTIVE...BUT ONE OF
THE TWO GLARING DIFFERENCES IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS MN AND FARTHER EAST...WHICH GIVEN THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT LED TO A QUICK REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE THREAT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM 2000 TO
3500 J/KG OF CAPE POOLED ALONG I-90 AT 12Z MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM TOWARD MID MORNING WITH
THE DESTABILIZATION OF DIABATIC HEATING. THE SECOND DIFFERENCE IS
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH WAS ON THE ORDER OF 65
TO 75 KTS ON SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM 90 TO 100 KTS WITH
THIS COMING SYSTEM. THIS COMPARES MORE CLOSELY TO THE 100-115 KT
JET OBSERVED IN THE 00Z KMPX RAOB FROM MAY 31 1998. THIS IS MERELY
ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT...AND NOT A PREDICTION OF A REPEAT OF
THE 1998 EVENT OR AN ATTEMPT TO INTRODUCE FEAR.
INSTEAD...THIS EVENT SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE JUNE 30 EVENT OF LAST
YEAR ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS...ONLY DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. THE
UNIQUE ASPECT OF THAT EVENT WAS THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS TRY TO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH THE JUN 30 2014 EVENT THERE WAS A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUALLY FORCED CONVECTION...AND THAT
DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE CASE IN THIS EVENT. INSTEAD ANTICIPATE ONE
QUICK MOVING LINE OF PRECIP...AND THEREFORE WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE REMOVAL OF POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES ARE
HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE SPEED OF CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HYDRO PROBLEMS UNLESS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DOES INDEED
DEVELOP.
IN SUMMARY...MONDAYS SHEAR/CAPE/FORCING INGREDIENTS ARE THE MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE YEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE RISK TO MODERATE ONCE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION INCREASES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND WITH AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS. THE 21.00 WRFARW AND EMC-WRFNMM FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL THE BEST IN PLACEMENT...AND FEEL THE QUICKER TIMING
OF THE ECM-WRFNMM MAY BE MORE ACCURATE THAN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WRFARW. USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TSRA ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAVORED THE IDEA OF THE
GFS/HRRR FOR THESE TAFS. WITH THAT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NODAK THAT WILL SEND A COMPLEX OF
TSRA INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 6Z. HENCE BRINGING SHRA MENTION IN MUCH
EARLIER FOR AXN/STC. AS THIS IS GOING ON...WE SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK THAT WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY TSRA COMPLEX...ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 9Z.
FORWARD MOTION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 60 KTS...SO
IT SHOULD WAIST NO TIME IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES AROUND 12Z AND PUSHING INTO EAU BY 15Z. IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SRN SYSTEM. PUT SOME MVFR
CIGS IN FOR BEHIND THIS ANTICIPATED COMPLEX...BUT HAVE LESS
CONFIDENCE ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY OF THAT WILL BE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
STORMS IMPACTING MSP DURING THE PEAK OF THE MORNING RUSH...SO
IMPACT TO TRAFFIC COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THE NODAK COMPLEX BUILDS...HRRR IS
INDICATING THE SOUTH END BEING WELL SOUTH OF I-94. IF THE HRRR IS
RIGHT...WE COULD SEE ONE ROUND OF STORMS AROUND 9Z...WITH THE
SODAK BATCH GETTING HERE CLOSER TO 12Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE REMAIN WITHIN A BELT OF RATHER HEALTHY WESTERLIES TODAY...THOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WE ARE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT PUSHED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW HAD PUSHED TO ABOUT I-35 AS OF 230 PM. SPC MESO-
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...VIEW OUT THE WINDOW AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CU
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY HAS A RATHER STABLE LOOK TO
IT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM EC MN INTO WC
MN...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 20/30 POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
NEXT AREA TO WATCH FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING IS WRN MN. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS NW SODAK. STARTING TO SEE STORMS
BUBBLE UP FROM NW SODAK INTO NC NODAK BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BIT OF
FORCING...SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAKING A RUN FOR WEST CENTRAL
MN BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. AS THESE STORMS RUN TOWARD MN...THE RAP
SHOWS MUCAPE WANING...SO THINK THESE WILL RUN OUT OF STEAM BEFORE
GETTING INTO MN...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO GET SOME LOW PROBS FOR -SHRA
INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THAT BETWEEN 7 AM AND 3 PM HAS GONE FROM OFF THE
OREGON COAST TO WRN MT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE KICKING OFF ANOTHER MCS OVER THE BLACK HILLS
TONIGHT THAT WILL DIVE SE TOWARD OMAHA. AS IT DOES SO...ITS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA TOWARD SW MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS SHOW A BAND
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON MORE OR LESS ALONG THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. SEEING
SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF SOME
ISO/SCT TYPE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT...THINK NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT HAS AND IS THEREFORE OVERDOING ITS FOG
POTENTIAL IN WRN WI. LIKE THE IDEA OF THE RAP/GFS WITH FOG THREAT
BEING PRIMARILY UP NE MN INTO NW WI.
FINALLY...DID BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
NAM/GFS SHOW US MIXING UP TO 800 MB...AND MIXING DOWN FROM THIS
LEVEL YIELDED POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...SO MIXED THAT
IN WITH OUR GOING FORECAST TO GET MOST FOLKS UP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXCEEDS 50
KNOTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
THE TOP OF KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT
SHOULD PUSH RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LESSENING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD YIELD A COMPLEX OF
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI.
PROFILE DATA INDICATES A STRONG WARM LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CAPE (1500 J/KG)
BEING ABOVE 850 MB. HENCE...DUE TO THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE CONFIDENCE FOR HAIL IS HIGHER THAN WIND EARLY ON IN THIS
EVENT. IN ADDITION...THE 925-850MB FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALSO RUNS
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...CAMS THAT REACH OUT TO
MONDAY MORNING ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. THEREFORE...COLLABORATION TODAY WAS TO BREAK POPS
INTO 3 HOUR GROUPS AND DRIVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH WITH SMALL CHANCES EXTENDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS. THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS STILL FORECAST TO BUCKLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A PRETTY DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)
WILL OFFER THE NEXT PERIOD OF HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL AT KRNH/KEAU OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION.
HOW DENSE THE FOG BECOMES IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
IFR CONDS AT BOTH KEAU/KRNH THRU 13Z /STARTING ARND 8Z/.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF MPX CWA
WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WNW TONIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING SW
SUNDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 6Z
MONDAY.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
CONDS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
TSRA/SHRA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...WILL KEEP VFR AT
THIS TIME WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 9K. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WNW
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING SW/S SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR WITH AM TSRA/SHRA. WIND S 5-10 KT BCMG NW 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS E-SE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1021MB RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
NOSING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. RIDGING ALOFT WAS
NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND
CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100F IN MOST AREAS.
CLOUD COVER DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS SPREAD
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND WAS LIMITING INSOLATION THERE SO FAR
TODAY. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS THERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE WEST TODAY. MUCH OF
OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE ANY STORMS TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOCAL WET
MICROBURST CHECKLIST SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE TODAY FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME VCTS AROUND JAN/HKS/MEI AND HBG THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY PEAKING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL
HELP TO DRAW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR WILL CIRCULATE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND HELP TO INCREASE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUBSIDENT ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG SHOULD BE OVER THE PINE BELT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LESS RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT...A ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SPC SSEO REFLECTS THIS
GENERAL PATTERN AS DOES THE HRRR...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS A BIT TOO
GENEROUS WITH COVERAGE. IN ANY CASE HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE VALUES IN THOSE AREAS...BUT THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURSTS ASSUMING
THAT STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS
~27-28, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES > 8.5 DEG C/KM). WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS GIVEN VERY LIMITED
COVERAGE.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN
GOING INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING RIDGE. FORECAST HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 BY MONDAY AFTN...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND FORMALLY INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED/SCT DIURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS CAN BE
EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STORMS LIKELY NOT
DISSIPATING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN HOT/HUMID AIRMASS. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL OVERALL
REMAIN INTACT OVER THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE
MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS MAY RESULT IN
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES DURING SEVERAL AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK...
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....AS THEY`RE PROGGED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 100-105F. THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING TO NEAR 105F IN THE HWO FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. OF COURSE... THIS COULD BE EXPANDED
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IF NEEDED. WITH ALL THAT SAID...THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE PERIOD AS HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. HENCE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOK TO FALL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ROLL AROUND...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING NEXT WEEKEND. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 75 95 74 / 18 18 15 15
MERIDIAN 94 72 95 72 / 26 26 15 15
VICKSBURG 92 74 95 74 / 24 24 12 11
HATTIESBURG 94 75 95 75 / 26 26 27 23
NATCHEZ 92 74 93 75 / 26 26 22 20
GREENVILLE 93 75 96 75 / 17 12 11 6
GREENWOOD 94 74 96 75 / 10 10 14 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/26/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WE
GO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...EVENTUALLY PEAKING OVER THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE
ARKLAMISS WILL HELP TO DRAW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR WILL CIRCULATE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
INCREASE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUBSIDENT
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG SHOULD BE OVER THE PINE BELT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LESS RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT...A ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SPC SSEO REFLECTS THIS
GENERAL PATTERN AS DOES THE HRRR...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS A BIT TOO
GENEROUS WITH COVERAGE. IN ANY CASE HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE VALUES IN THOSE AREAS...BUT THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURSTS ASSUMING
THAT STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS
~27-28, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES > 8.5 DEG C/KM). WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS GIVEN VERY LIMITED
COVERAGE.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN
GOING INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING RIDGE. FORECAST HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 BY MONDAY AFTN...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND FORMALLY INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED/SCT DIURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS CAN BE
EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STORMS LIKELY NOT
DISSIPATING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN HOT/HUMID AIRMASS. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL OVERALL REMAIN INTACT OVER THE CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES DURING
SEVERAL AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON....AS THEY`RE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-105F.
THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES REACHING TO NEAR 105F IN THE HWO FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. OF COURSE... THIS COULD BE EXPANDED FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK IF NEEDED. WITH ALL THAT SAID...THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL
BE MONITORED DURING THE PERIOD AS HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. HENCE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOK TO FALL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ROLL AROUND...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING NEXT WEEKEND. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LESS PREVALENT
THIS MORNING THAN IN RECENT DAYS GIVEN LIGHTER AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED TSRA COVERAGE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE JAN/HKS/MEI CORRIDOR. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 75 95 74 / 18 18 15 15
MERIDIAN 94 72 95 72 / 26 26 15 15
VICKSBURG 93 74 95 74 / 24 24 12 11
HATTIESBURG 94 75 95 75 / 26 26 27 23
NATCHEZ 92 74 93 75 / 26 26 22 20
GREENVILLE 93 75 96 75 / 12 12 11 6
GREENWOOD 94 74 96 75 / 10 10 14 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 518 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Tonight - Monday:
Elevated convection redeveloping across northwest MO where airmass
is being feed by increasing feed of accas forming across northeast
KS. While the HRRR has had some issues its also been adamant that
scattered convection would from over northwest MO late this
afternoon and evening. SPC Meso Analysis depicts region of deep
moisture convergence and advection of better instability into
northwest MO to support the continued development. Isolated severe
is possible as 40kt 0-6km shear supports activity. Convection will
likely begin to fall apart as we head towards sunset and instability
begins to wane. Boundary currently over west central MO will
eventually lift north and into IA overnight allowing southerly flow
to reestablish itself.
Hot and humid air funnels back into the region as a stiff
southwesterly low level jet pushes in. Hot h7 temperatures in the
+14C to +17C range will effectively cap the airmass for most of the
day. Highs should rebound back into the lower to middle 90s with
hottest air over west central/northwest MO and eastern KS. Add in
surface dewpoints in the 71F-74F range and HI values will likely top
out around 105F. So issued a heat advisory for afternoon hours.
Fast zonal flow across the northern tier of states will allow a fast
moving shortwave to force a cold front south and east into northwest
MO by very late afternoon. Hot h7 temperatures will hold back
convection but operational models "cooling" at h7 by 00z Tuesday
suggest cooling due to convection. While convection will likely hold
off until Monday night will transition to that with a small window
of slight chance PoPs over far northwest MO.
Monday night - Tuesday night:
Aforementioned cold front will be the focus for scattered convection
Monday evening. Moderate/extreme instability and 0-6km bulk shear of
30-35kt will support a severe threat across northern MO down to the
MO River.
This frontal boundary is expected to stall across central MO on
Tuesday then lift back north as a warm front. Thus this boundary
will once again be the focus for a third round of potential severe
weather Tuesday through Tuesday night. Should see a 10-15 degree
thermal contrast across the boundary. High precipitable water values
during this period will support a continued heavy rain threat as
some training of cells is possible.
Wednesday:
The warm front is expected to lift north into IA and allow the cap
to reform and give us a chance to dry out. But the hot and humid air
is the trade off.
Thursday - Saturday:
The bouncing front is expected to head back south during this period
and in the vicinity of the CWA such that moderately high PoPs are
required. Extensive cloud cover and the rain cooled air should bring
reasonably cool air to the region, but at a cost...high humidity and
the threat of heavy rains.
Wednesday -
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Vicinity thunderstorms currently keep bubbling up near the terminals
and will persist well into the afternoon hours. This will likely
result in a combination of VFR and MVFR ceilings as the storms move
through this afternoon with the potential for quick periods of IFR.
After the storms dissipate later today expect VFR conditions into
the evening hours before the strong winds ahead of an approaching
cold front advect some MVFR ceilings in late tonight. Ceilings should
clear out tomorrow morning as the gusty winds increase in speed from
the southwest.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ002>006-
011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Updated Aviation and Mesoscale discussions...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued just to the north of
the area through 5 PM. As mentioned in the previous update, the
bulk of the expected thunderstorm activity will remain to our
north, but a few storms will be possible across the northern
portion of the outlook area (mainly central Missouri from Warsaw
to Vichy and points north). Will maintain a limited risk for wind
and hail given available instability and adjust further as
conditions evolve. At the very least, folks in/around the Lake of
the Ozarks region should remain aware of the risk for lightning
this afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Continuing to watch convection fire along a low level boundary
across central Missouri back into northeastern Kansas. This
boundary really does not look to move much today, as a result it
appears that the bulk of this activity may remain just to the
north of our outlook area, but certainly close enough to keep a
very close watch.
At this time, convection is discreet. Cell motion (as estimated
by 0-10km layer wind) is to the east southeast at about 25-30kt.
If a cold pool can develop, forecast system motion is more to the
southeast, so system organization will definitely bear watching.
Plenty of instability will be feeding the boundary today, with
shear increasing a bit as a shortwave passing to our north
increases mid level westerlies. Discreet storms look to be the
preferred storm mode heading into the afternoon. As a result,
lightning, hail and localized wind gusts are the primary concerns
with any activity that can get into the northern portion of the
outlook area. If a cold pool can get organized, the wind risk will
increase appreciably.
Otherwise, expect a warm and humid first day of summer. A near
carbon copy to yesterday with highs a few degrees either side of
90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Overall, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and
beyond. Complexes of thunderstorms to the north and south of the
TAF sites will produce variable cloud cover, ranging from diurnal
cumulus to cirrus. Southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon
and again Monday morning. Tonight, a strengthening low level jet
will produce low level wind shear.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Gagan
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Continuing to watch convection fire along a low level boundary
across central Missouri back into northeastern Kansas. This
boundary really does not look to move much today, as a result it
appears that the bulk of this activity may remain just to the
north of our outlook area, but certainly close enough to keep a
very close watch.
At this time, convection is discreet. Cell motion (as estimated
by 0-10km layer wind) is to the east southeast at about 25-30kt.
If a cold pool can develop, forecast system motion is more to the
southeast, so system organization will definitely bear watching.
Plenty of instability will be feeding the boundary today, with
shear increasing a bit as a shortwave passing to our north
increases mid level westerlies. Discreet storms look to be the
preferred storm mode heading into the afternoon. As a result,
lightning, hail and localized wind gusts are the primary concerns
with any activity that can get into the northern portion of the
outlook area. If a cold pool can get organized, the wind risk will
increase appreciably.
Otherwise, expect a warm and humid first day of summer. A near
carbon copy to yesterday with highs a few degrees either side of
90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Low
pressure moving out into the central Plains will keep dry s-sw sfc
winds in place. Progged low level wind fields support a marginal
mention of low level wind shear again late in the taf period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR condtions are expected. Low
pressure moving out into the central Plains will keep dry s-sw sfc
winds in place. Progged low level wind fields support a marginal
mention of low level wind shear again late in the taf period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
Low level wind shear will be the main concern for the terminals
through tonight, as a fairly strong low level jet overspreads the
region. Southwest winds will then become gusty by mid morning on
Sunday, continuing through sunset.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1035 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING WERE MINOR AND MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES. DID RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AS SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WERE INITIATING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY OUT
THERE. ALSO RAISED POPS SOME OVER THE WEST AS SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING. EASTERN STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE
QUICKLY WITH DEEP CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. THE WEST COULD HAVE SOME
STRONG STORMS TOO...BUT MAINLY ISSUE THERE WILL BE WIND WITH DRY
LOWER LEVELS. MOST OF THE WESTERN STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
SOME MODELS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT AND THIS COULD BE ENHANCED BY
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH CONVECTION AT
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET STILL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
FEATURES OF INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OR AND ANOTHER IN
SOUTHERN BC. THESE WAVES WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TOGETHER AND BRING
US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE. MOIST
ADVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING PER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS TO AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST
MT. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-
MIXED AND DRIER ACROSS OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME DEEPER EAST OF SFC TROF. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SEEM VERY REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST BY
AROUND 19Z AS CAPES BUILD TO 1500+ J/KG. INSTABILITY AND PLENTIFUL
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BY WHICH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
MAIN THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER ESPECIALLY IF
SFC DEW PTS CLIMB TO NEAR 60F. AGAIN THIS POTENTIAL IS IN OUR FAR
EAST AND STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 19Z.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OUR WEST AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES IN COMBINATION W/ A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN RISK IN
OUR WEST WILL BE WIND PER FRONTAL PUSH AND DEEPLY MIXED PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...IE A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE AND
FRONTAL WINDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AS WELL. FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LVM-3HT BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN BIL/SHR
DURING THE EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO
AND GRAPHIC.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS IN OUR WEST TOMORROW.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
AREA OF PV COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK TO SOUTHEAST MT. NO SEVERE WX
ANTICIPATED MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS AN UNSETTLED BUT WARM ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A FEW DAYS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. MODELS SHOW EPISODES OF EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
THE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD IS LESS CERTAIN BUT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED EACH DAY
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAPE VALUES TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST PLACES.
MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHICH LOOKS TO DISRUPT
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WARMUP LOOKS A BIT SLOWER BUT STILL SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH 90 BY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR A FEW AREAS. WILL
SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 21Z AND OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE ZONES...FROM KMLS TO KBHK.
THE STORMS OVER THE TERRAIN WILL PROGRESS E FROM 21Z TO 00Z
THROUGH KLVM AND KBIL AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE N. HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS FROM KLVM TO
KBIL...WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER KMLS AND KBHK. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS S. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORMS OVER SE MT MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 055/078 056/081 057/083 060/090 063/088 062/086
2/T 41/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
LVM 084 048/077 050/081 050/084 053/090 055/089 054/087
3/T 42/T 33/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
HDN 088 054/080 055/083 058/085 060/092 062/089 061/087
1/B 31/B 33/T 33/T 21/B 11/B 11/U
MLS 087 057/078 057/081 057/082 059/087 060/086 060/083
2/T 51/B 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
4BQ 086 055/077 056/079 056/081 059/087 061/087 059/083
2/T 31/B 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 083 054/075 054/078 055/078 056/082 059/082 056/079
4/T 52/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 086 052/076 052/079 053/080 054/087 057/086 056/082
1/B 20/B 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH CONVECTION AT
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET STILL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
FEATURES OF INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OR AND ANOTHER IN
SOUTHERN BC. THESE WAVES WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TOGETHER AND BRING
US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE. MOIST
ADVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING PER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS TO AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST
MT. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-
MIXED AND DRIER ACROSS OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME DEEPER EAST OF SFC TROF. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SEEM VERY REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST BY
AROUND 19Z AS CAPES BUILD TO 1500+ J/KG. INSTABILITY AND PLENTIFUL
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BY WHICH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
MAIN THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER ESPECIALLY IF
SFC DEW PTS CLIMB TO NEAR 60F. AGAIN THIS POTENTIAL IS IN OUR FAR
EAST AND STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 19Z.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OUR WEST AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES IN COMBINATION W/ A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN RISK IN
OUR WEST WILL BE WIND PER FRONTAL PUSH AND DEEPLY MIXED PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...IE A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE AND
FRONTAL WINDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AS WELL. FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LVM-3HT BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN BIL/SHR
DURING THE EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO
AND GRAPHIC.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS IN OUR WEST TOMORROW.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
AREA OF PV COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK TO SOUTHEAST MT. NO SEVERE WX
ANTICIPATED MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS AN UNSETTLED BUT WARM ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A FEW DAYS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. MODELS SHOW EPISODES OF EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
THE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD IS LESS CERTAIN BUT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED EACH DAY
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAPE VALUES TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST PLACES.
MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHICH LOOKS TO DISRUPT
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WARMUP LOOKS A BIT SLOWER BUT STILL SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH 90 BY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR A FEW AREAS. WILL
SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WITH A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS TO K4BQ LINE WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS NOT
AS INTENSE BUT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A
THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT KLVM AROUND
21Z AND REACH KBIL AROUND 23Z. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 055/078 056/081 057/083 060/090 063/088 062/086
2/T 41/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
LVM 084 048/077 050/081 050/084 053/090 055/089 054/087
2/T 42/T 33/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
HDN 088 054/080 055/083 058/085 060/092 062/089 061/087
1/B 31/B 33/T 33/T 21/B 11/B 11/U
MLS 087 057/078 057/081 057/082 059/087 060/086 060/083
2/T 51/B 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
4BQ 086 055/077 056/079 056/081 059/087 061/087 059/083
2/T 31/B 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 083 054/075 054/078 055/078 056/082 059/082 056/079
4/T 52/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 086 052/076 052/079 053/080 054/087 057/086 056/082
1/B 20/B 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE AREA SITTING UNDER GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED OVER THE SWRN
COAST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH IT BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THE FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SAGGED SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE FAR SERN CORNER OF
THE CWA. STARTING AROUND MID MORNING...HAD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ENDED UP THROWING
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. SINCE THEN...HASNT BEEN ANY
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY...WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING CAPPING IN
PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES WITH
TEMPERATURES OR DPTS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
THE FAR NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REACH NEAR 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
/BANKING ON A WEAKENING CAP/ THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THAT AREA...OTHER MODELS
SHOW NOTHING DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE EVENING HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO A PORTION OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...CONTINUED TO CARRY THE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING...AND OVERALL COVERAGE...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR COMING IN WITH MORE ACTIVITY THAN BASICALLY ANY OTHER
MODEL. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUN TRENDS AND MONITOR
ACTIVITY TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. AT
THIS POINT...KEPT THOSE POPS CONFINED TO AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH A DRY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...EXPECTING HIGHER PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS...BUT BECOMING MORE
E/SERLY WITH TIME. LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED TOMORROW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SET UP NEAR THE STATE LINE. MODELS SHOW THAT SERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS REMAINING MAINLY OVER NEB...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS OVER NC
KS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 80S IN THE NORTH...MID/UPPER 90S
IN THE S/SW. LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 AGAIN
POSSIBLE ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 00 MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...QUASI-ZONAL TO AT
TIME NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY ONWARD.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES SHIFTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE ALONG THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DOES SUGGEST A VERY ISOLATED AREA ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
CWA COULD SEE PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS OUTPUT IS
THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC WHICH BOTH KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...A SUBTLE PERTURBATION ADVANCING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ROCKIES...MOST EVIDENT NEAR 700MB PER MODEL GUIDANCE...COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA
A THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE STRENGTHENS...THUS INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE REALIZATION OF PRECIPITATION ON ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS LOW...BUT ITS HARD TO JUSTIFY A DRY FORECAST BASED
ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED
POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RESPECTABLE VALUES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH VARYING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...WILL PRESENT
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000J/KG RANGE EACH
DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
~30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THAT SAID...FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY AND WITH OMEGA REMAINING ON THE
QUESTIONABLE SIDE...ITS HARD TO SAY THAT ANY ONE DAY HAS A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT. OBVIOUSLY...ANY DAY THAT
CAN REALIZE CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO DEFINITIVELY MENTION SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
GIVEN THIS...FOR THE HWO...WILL SIMPLY STATE THAT SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD PRESENT A VERY WARM DAY ON MONDAY..WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD SPIKE TO AROUND
100 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND MORE
INTO THE 90S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN TEMPERATURE
READINGS ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA SHOULD
THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FINALLY...RESULTANT HEAT INDEX READINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
OUR EAST NORTHEAST WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS WE
NEAR DAWN AND SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A PROBLEM LATE
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM GRAND ISLAND EASTWARD AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PUSHES BACK NORTH. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING...BUT TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
750 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM MONDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY 925-850 MB DEWPOINTS ~14C (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND AS ONE MIGHT INFER GIVEN WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NO SIGNIFICANT CAP) AND A LACK OF DIURNAL CU. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GREATER
THAN IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL NC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AN MCV WAS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST KY AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ESE
INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY ~00Z...SOUTHEASTWARD TO BOONE NC BY ~03Z...
SSE/SOUTHWARD TO MORGANTON BY ~06Z AND CHARLOTTE BY ~09Z. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST NC
AFTER 00Z...WITH PROPAGATION INTO THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
~03Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE 12Z CAMS SUPPORT SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND A
DRIER/LESS SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...ASSUMING NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE INTO THE TRIAD...DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS
AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION
(AT BEST). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 325-326 DM OVER THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AOA 1440 METERS OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...AT LEAST NOT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...
WHERE AOA 70 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON; AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT...LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED ONE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED...FORCING
AT THIS LATITUDE WILL NEED TO COME FROM OUTFLOW AND/OR AN MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...NEITHER OF WHICH CAN BE FORECAST WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. POP WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NE CANADA. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH... STALLING OUT AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER BY LATE WED
AFT/EVE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTH TO
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A LOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A
S/W OR TWO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK... PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE
IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID 90S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE INDICATION IN THE MODELS OF
A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... DECREASING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD: THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 748 PM MONDAY...
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... AND IN THE VICINITY
OF KFAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE (~20 PERCENT) UNTIL A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH INTO VA-NC ON WED AND SUPPORTS A BETTER CHANCE (30-50
PERCENT) AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/22 100 1981
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
GSO RECORDS
06/22 100 1914
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/22 101 1990
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND
00 UTC NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...AS A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE POTENTIAL STRONG NORTHERN LIGHTS SHOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD COVERING MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERTICAL EXTENT APPEARS LIMITED
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 6000FT. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH AND HENCE LIMIT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MINIMAL TO NIL. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL WANE NEAR SUNSET WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TUESDAY...REACHING NORTHWEST MONTANA/SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE INCREASES TO 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AT 50KT TO 60KT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMER...BETWEEN 77F AND 82F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE CURRENT SUITE OF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER DAYS 1-3 HAS ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE
STATE...AS A RESULT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE POST 00 UTC TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
KISN...KDIK...AND KBIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TSRA HAS BEEN PUT IN THE TAFS
FOR THESE SITES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT A
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KMOT AND KJMS...THUS HAVE WENT WITH VCTS
FOR THESE SITES. THAT SAID MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 10Z MONDAY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS IN VFR FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BUT MOST LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS OF NOW. AN ISOLATED CELL/SHOWER WAS ALSO SEEN IN
SOUTHWEST WARD COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 60KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH CAPE AT 2000 J/KG. AWAITING STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH ADVANCING
SHORTWAVES. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGEST REFLECTIVITYS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUPERCELLS INITIATING AND EMERGING INTO SEPARATE LINES AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY. HRRR
ALSO ADVERTISING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL BETWEEN 03Z AND O6Z. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SHIFTING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED AREA
FARTHER WEST. LATEST HRRR MAX LAYER COLUMN REFLECTIVITY VIDEO
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EVENT FROM THIS PAST FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WESTERN ALBERTA ALONG WITH A 100KT JET STREAK.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AND LATEST HRRR...EXPECTATIONS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z WEST/NORTHWEST THEN MERGES
INTO A MCS/BOWING LINE SEGMENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS IT WORKS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS CIN ERODING COMPLETELY BY 20Z AT KISN/KDIK...AND BY 22Z AT
KMOT/KBIS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR
LAUNCH. RAPID SCAN SATELLITE OPERATIONS IN EFFECT FROM 17Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE
OVERALL THEME IS WELL CAPTURED AND REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE OREGON
COAST. SHORTWAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE BASES OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY...INDUCING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN
LOWERING SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE LATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AND INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN AN ENHANCED RISK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS AND LIFT FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/GFS/WRF ALL INDICATE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (2000 J/KG CAPE) AND SHEAR (50+ KNOTS) FOR
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SICKLE OR SHARPLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. EVEN THOUGH LCL LEVELS VARY WIDELY FROM ONE MODEL TO
ANOTHER...GENERALLY THIS TYPE OF WIND PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THEREFORE...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY (HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
TORNADOES).
A VERY SIMILAR SET UP TO FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED CELLS
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF
ACTUALLY HAS TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ONE EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND 7 PM AND ANOTHER MOVING
THROUGH CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
COMPLEXES WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM...MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SHORT DRY SPELL AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD SO AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FOR NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FAR SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS TIME SO CERTAINTY BEGINS
TO WANE AS WE MOVE LATE INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE
BUT THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH AN UNSETTLED BEGINNING TO THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DRIER WEEKEND...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHORTWAVES ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN IN THIS FLOW.
HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
KISN...KDIK...AND KBIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TSRA HAS BEEN PUT IN THE TAFS
FOR THESE SITES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT A
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KMOT AND KJMS...THUS HAVE WENT WITH VCTS
FOR THESE SITES. THAT SAID MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 10Z MONDAY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS IN VFR FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED AREA
FARTHER WEST. LATEST HRRR MAX LAYER COLUMN REFLECTIVITY VIDEO
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EVENT FROM THIS PAST FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WESTERN ALBERTA ALONG WITH A 100KT JET STREAK.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AND LATEST HRRR...EXPECTATIONS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z WEST/NORTHWEST THEN MERGES
INTO A MCS/BOWING LINE SEGMENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS IT WORKS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS CIN ERODING COMPLETELY BY 20Z AT KISN/KDIK...AND BY 22Z AT
KMOT/KBIS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR
LAUNCH. RAPID SCAN SATELLITE OPERATIONS IN EFFECT FROM 17Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE
OVERALL THEME IS WELL CAPTURED AND REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE OREGON
COAST. SHORTWAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE BASES OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY...INDUCING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN
LOWERING SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE LATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AND INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN AN ENHANCED RISK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS AND LIFT FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/GFS/WRF ALL INDICATE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (2000 J/KG CAPE) AND SHEAR (50+ KNOTS) FOR
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SICKLE OR SHARPLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. EVEN THOUGH LCL LEVELS VARY WIDELY FROM ONE MODEL TO
ANOTHER...GENERALLY THIS TYPE OF WIND PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THEREFORE...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY (HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
TORNADOES).
A VERY SIMILAR SET UP TO FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED CELLS
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF
ACTUALLY HAS TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ONE EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND 7 PM AND ANOTHER MOVING
THROUGH CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
COMPLEXES WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM...MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SHORT DRY SPELL AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD SO AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FOR NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FAR SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS TIME SO CERTAINTY BEGINS
TO WANE AS WE MOVE LATE INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE
BUT THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH AN UNSETTLED BEGINNING TO THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DRIER WEEKEND...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHORTWAVES ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN IN THIS FLOW.
HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
629 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LESS ACTIVITY THERE DUE TO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. DID ELECT TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE MORNING...AS NEAR TERM
MODELS INDICATING POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO
MAKE ITS WAY/SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO
CHANCE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVELS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 70 PLUS DP
VALUES STRETCHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW TO SEE LIFTING OF STRATOCU DECK BY A FEW MORE HOURS. DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA....WHILE BL STRATOCU
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. PUSHED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...AND BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. SFC FLOW A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KEPT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DIRECTLY HITS
AN AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...SL/KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
445 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVELS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 70 PLUS DP
VALUES STRETCHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW TO SEE LIFTING OF STRATCU DECK BY A FEW MORE HOURS. DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA....WHILE BL STRATCU
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. PUSHED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...AND BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. SFC FLOW A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KEPT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DIRECTLY HITS
AN AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TONIGHT ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA IN AN AREA OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INSTABILITY...NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TODAY OVER ILN. EXPECT THE LACK OF
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AIDED BY
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND IT WILL
BEAR WATCHING AS IT MOVES CLOSER AS SUGGESTED BY RAP MODEL. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH MODELS INDICATING UP TO AROUND 3500
J/KG CAPE...THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHEAST MAY MEAN THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT MAY NOT BE
WELL IN PHASE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ALIGNED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF
STRONG FORCING AND WIND FIELDS...A FEW CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE RATHER HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...WITH DOWNBURSTS
POSSIBLY AIDED BY FAVORABLE DELTA THETA E.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY MAY BE FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTHEAST TO 90 SOUTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO STAY UP
IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS TO COME THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SFC WAVE TRACKING THRU THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY AND LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACRS SRN FA
TUESDAY AFTN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC WAVE. ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY BUT FOR NOW HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM VARIOUS SOLNS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH NEXT SFC WAVE PIVOTING
THRU GREAT LAKES. HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS CHANCE CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
WAVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM UPR 70S/NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW TAF FORECAST REMOVES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. WHILE ISOLD/SCT STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH EAST OF
ILN/CVG/LCK. THUS...RUNNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE SWLY BREEZES.
TONIGHT...MCS POTENTIAL STILL LOOMS COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THERE/S SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX COULD GRAZE CVG/LUK
AROUND 03Z TO 04Z...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL JUST GO WITH MID CLOUD
AT THOSE SITES AND LET FURTHER FORECASTS DICTATE NEED TO MENTION
TSRA.
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MIST /BR/ IN MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST SITES
AS FLOW BACKS/WEAKENS AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS. DID ALLOW LUK TO DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS.
ON MONDAY...WARM FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING SWLY BREEZES AGAIN. IMPETUS FOR LARGER SCALE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WEST/NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SO HAVE DRY TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL BRING ON AND OFF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
EITHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY BACK NORTHEAST.
AS A RESULT...ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE...HAVE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY IN THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR THINKING.
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN..WILL KEEP A FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING CLOSE TO OUR AREA. IT
WILL DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND HOW FAR THEIR FRONTS
WILL GET...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. IT
WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVELS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 70 PLUS DP
VALUES STRETCHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW TO SEE LIFTING OF STRATCU DECK BY A FEW MORE HOURS. DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA....WHILE BL STRATCU
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. PUSHED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...AND BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. SFC FLOW A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KEPT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DIRECTLY HITS
AN AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED DISCUSSION>>>HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT FOR
THE MID/LATER AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND VERY SHORT RANGE
PREDICTIONS FROM THE HRRR RUNS SINCE 10Z. THINK IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE 19Z-
22Z IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO AND MAY BUILD BACK WEST A LITTLE BIT...BUT
DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON A HUGE NUMBER OF STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE
MODELS /AND SUBSTANTIATED BY LACK OF GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE SEEN IN ANALYSIS/SATELLITE/OBS SUGGESTS ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION>>>FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL SQUARELY ON CONVECTIVE /AND
SEVERE/ POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE INTO THE
MID EVENING.
21.12Z KILN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH 900MB
TEMPS TO 26C AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE
THAT MORNING INVERSION. CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM NIGHTTIME
MCS HAVE BEEN ERODING AND HEATING/INSOLATION IS OCCURRING BUT
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOOM OVER INDIANA.
AMALGAM OF STORMSCALE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING POINTS TO WIDELY
DISPARATE SCENARIOS - AND THIS IS LIKELY TIED TO WEAK/NEBULOUS
FORCING AND EFFECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY.
RECENT NCEP HRRR RUNS ARE ADAMANT THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS
QUIET FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER KY ON LEADING EDGE OF DECAYED INDIANA MCS. 21.00Z
ARW-WRF WINDOW VERY SIMILAR TO THAT...AS WAS THE 21.00Z SPC/EMC
WRF. THESE DATA ALL SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LIKELY DUE TO HANDLING OF MCS OUTFLOW/DEBRIS CLOUD.
CONTRARILY...21.00Z STORMSCALE ENSEMBLE FROM NCAR STILL POINTING
OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
IN THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME /ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST A MUCH MORE MUTED
VERSION OF ITS PRIOR FORECAST/ WITH A SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
SAGGING INTO NRN KY THIS EVENING. THE 21.00Z SSEO LIES MORE IN
LINE THE HRRR/ARW/SPC WRF - BUT DOES HAVE SOME PROBABILITIES OF
STORM INITIATION/SEVERE THREAT IN FAR SRN OHIO/NRN KY.
BOTTOM LINE - THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SFC WIND FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY
CONVERGENT. INBOUND /BUT ERODING/ DEBRIS CLOUD ALSO OF CONCERN.
NEW 21.09Z SREF CALIBRATED SVR PROBS HAVE BACKED DOWN NOTABLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA - BUT ARE NONZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING THAT SCT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z IN
SRN OHIO AND NRN KY ON ONE OR TWO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONES. FORECAST CAPE/SHEAR SUGGESTS ENOUGH FLOW /0-6KM
SHEAR OF 25-30KT/ FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DCAPE/DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E SUGGESTS A WIND THREAT FIRST...WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING HAIL COULD BE DECENT IN THE
STRONGEST CORES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A TOR THREAT. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM WILL SINK E-SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO GO
ANYWHERE HIGHER THAN 40-50% ON RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WHICH DROPPED IN ON SUNDAY WILL START TO LEFT BACK AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. SOME SCT CONVECTION COULD START TO DEVELOP IN THE
CINCY TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT ON THE FRONT AND WILL TRY AND BUILD
NE.
A STRONG LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A CDFNT WILL WILL DRAG ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH UP
TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS TO COME
THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING
NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACRS SRN FA LATER
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WED INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. IF THIS DRY PERIOD DOES OCCUR IT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
WITH NEXT WAVE PIVOTING THRU GREAT LAKES NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE SPREAD
CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEW TAF FORECAST REMOVES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. WHILE ISOLD/SCT STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH EAST OF
ILN/CVG/LCK. THUS...RUNNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE SWLY BREEZES.
TONIGHT...MCS POTENTIAL STILL LOOMS COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THERE/S SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX COULD GRAZE CVG/LUK
AROUND 03Z TO 04Z...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL JUST GO WITH MID CLOUD
AT THOSE SITES AND LET FURTHER FORECASTS DICTATE NEED TO MENTION
TSRA.
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MIST /BR/ IN MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST SITES
AS FLOW BACKS/WEAKENS AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS. DID ALLOW LUK TO DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS.
ON MONDAY...WARM FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING SWLY BREEZES AGAIN. IMPETUS FOR LARGER SCALE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WEST/NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SO HAVE DRY TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL SQUARELY ON CONVECTIVE /AND SEVERE/
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE INTO THE MID EVENING.
21.12Z KILN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH 900MB
TEMPS TO 26C AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE
THAT MORNING INVERSION. CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM NIGHTTIME
MCS HAVE BEEN ERODING AND HEATING/INSOLATION IS OCCURRING BUT
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOOM OVER INDIANA.
AMALGAM OF STORMSCALE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING POINTS TO WIDELY
DISPARATE SCENARIOS - AND THIS IS LIKELY TIED TO WEAK/NEBULOUS
FORCING AND EFFECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY.
RECENT NCEP HRRR RUNS ARE ADAMANT THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS
QUIET FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER KY ON LEADING EDGE OF DECAYED INDIANA MCS. 21.00Z
ARW-WRF WINDOW VERY SIMILAR TO THAT...AS WAS THE 21.00Z SPC/EMC
WRF. THESE DATA ALL SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LIKELY DUE TO HANDLING OF MCS OUTFLOW/DEBRIS CLOUD.
CONTRARILY...21.00Z STORMSCALE ENSEMBLE FROM NCAR STILL POINTING
OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
IN THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME /ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST A MUCH MORE MUTED
VERSION OF ITS PRIOR FORECAST/ WITH A SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
SAGGING INTO NRN KY THIS EVENING. THE 21.00Z SSEO LIES MORE IN
LINE THE HRRR/ARW/SPC WRF - BUT DOES HAVE SOME PROBABILITIES OF
STORM INITIATION/SEVERE THREAT IN FAR SRN OHIO/NRN KY.
BOTTOM LINE - THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SFC WIND FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY
CONVERGENT. INBOUND /BUT ERODING/ DEBRIS CLOUD ALSO OF CONCERN.
NEW 21.09Z SREF CALIBRATED SVR PROBS HAVE BACKED DOWN NOTABLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA - BUT ARE NONZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING THAT SCT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z IN
SRN OHIO AND NRN KY ON ONE OR TWO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONES. FORECAST CAPE/SHEAR SUGGESTS ENOUGH FLOW /0-6KM
SHEAR OF 25-30KT/ FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DCAPE/DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E SUGGESTS A WIND THREAT FIRST...WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING HAIL COULD BE DECENT IN THE
STRONGEST CORES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A TOR THREAT. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM WILL SINK E-SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO GO
ANYWHERE HIGHER THAN 40-50% ON RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WHICH DROPPED IN ON SUNDAY WILL START TO LEFT BACK AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. SOME SCT CONVECTION COULD START TO DEVELOP IN THE
CINCY TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT ON THE FRONT AND WILL TRY AND BUILD
NE.
A STRONG LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A CDFNT WILL WILL DRAG ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH UP
TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS TO COME
THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING
NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACRS SRN FA LATER
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WED INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. IF THIS DRY PERIOD DOES OCCUR IT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
WITH NEXT WAVE PIVOTING THRU GREAT LAKES NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE SPREAD
CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MCS DIED OUT AS IT SWEPT THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS THAT THE 6Z NAM HAS AN IDEA WITH UPSTREAM RAIN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND PROGRESSES IT THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK RETURNS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CWA
LOOKS TO BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THE RETURNS WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL OHIO...FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS UNDER 6KFT ARE APPARENT
AND THE BULK OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS OVER 10KFT.
ATTEMPTED TO HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z FOR
MOST AREAS AND EXPECT A QUICK DISSIPATION TO ANY CLOUDS BEHIND
WHAT RAIN DOES DEVELOP. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON-TRACK. HRRR TAKES MINOR NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONVECTION NEAR/INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1135 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS JUST NORTH OF CHEMULT
AND THE CURRENT HRRR RUN IS SHOWING QPF OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND
NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THESE AREAS STARTING NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SPS
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS LI`S NEAR -1 AND THERE IS SOME COOLING
ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO POP UP. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WITH LITTLE AFFECT. RADAR SHOWS A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRIED
TO USE BLEND AND ADD DETAIL WITH HRRR WITH THESE FEATURES.
GENERAL MESSAGE GOOD CHANCE RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS 2 TO 3 PM
AS THE RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ON RADAR. A SECOND SHOT IN WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR. HRRR QPF IS APPARENTLY GROSSLY OVER
DONE....3KM GRID SIZED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES MORE QPF THAN A
SMALLER WEAKER ONE THAT TODAY MAY BE 1-2 KM LARGE.
BE HIT OR MISS.
SLOWLY DRY OUT AND MOSTLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE DIMINISHES AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS SLOWLY DROP AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT.
SHOULD GET MORE COMFORTABLE TOWARD MORNING. BRIGHTER TOO.
THE RIDGE AND HIGH PW AIR SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...COOLER
DRIER DAY ON THE EDGE OF THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THIS TIME
SUSPECT RETURN FLOW AND SURGE HIGH PW AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION TOMORROW UNTIL AT LEAST DINNERTIME.
RELATIVELY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY AS THE MOISTURE AND HEAT SURGE BACK IN...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI. A HOT 594DM 500MB UPPER RIDGE
EXTENING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO PA MON NIGHT/TUE. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON WITH INCREASING LLJET SHOULD KICK
OFF DECENT MCS TO OUR NW MON NIGHT...WHICH COULD SLIDE INTO NW
MTNS BY SUNRISE TUE. DECENT W/NW FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH
NOTABLE CAPE ON TUE /AS TEMPS SURGE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/ COULD BRING ROUND OF TSTMS AND SCT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS CWA. SETUP IS GOOD FOR A
NW FLOW EVENT...THOUGH LOW CENTERED A BIT FAR TO OUR NORTH AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD DAMPEN HEATING. BUT
FOR NOW...SPC HAS MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TUE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOMETHING WE HAVEN/T SEEN HERE FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE A
WHILE...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER. TEMPS SETTLE BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD FOR LATE WEEK AS SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES RUN OVERHEAD...BRINGING BACK DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FOR LATE WEEK AND ESP NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW TAFS REFLECT THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR IN
A FEW SPOTS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE WITH A STRAY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
19Z AND 00Z.
SLOW DRYING OUT WITH AREAS PATCHY MVFR WITH OVERNIGHT FOG/HAZE.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE WEST. THIS COULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER HUMID AIR
COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR AFTER SOME PATCHY AM MVFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
213 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WITH LITTLE AFFECT. RADAR SHOWS A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRIED
TO USE BLEND AND ADD DETAIL WITH HRRR WITH THESE FEATURES.
GENERAL MESSAGE GOOD CHANCE RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS 2 TO 3 PM
AS THE RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ON RADAR. A SECOND SHOT IN WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR. HRRR QPF IS APPARENTLY GROSSLY OVER
DONE....3KM GRID SIZED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES MORE QPF THAN A
SMALLER WEAKER ONE THAT TODAY MAY BE 1-2 KM LARGE.
BE HIT OR MISS.
SLOWLY DRY OUT AND MOSTLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE DIMINISHES AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS SLOWLY DROP AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT.
SHOULD GET MORE COMFORTABLE TOWARD MORNING. BRIGHTER TOO.
THE RIDGE AND HIGH PW AIR SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...COOLER
DRIER DAY ON THE EDGE OF THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THIS TIME
SUSPECT RETURN FLOW AND SURGE HIGH PW AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION TOMORROW UNTIL AT LEAST DINNERTIME.
RELATIVELY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY AS THE MOISTURE AND HEAT SURGE BACK IN...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW TAFS REFLECT THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR IN
A FEW SPOTS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE WITH A STRAY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
19Z AND 00Z.
SLOW DRYING OUT WITH AREAS PATCHY MVFR WITH OVERNIGHT FOG/HAZE.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE WEST. THIS COULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER HUMID AIR
COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR AFTER SOME PATCHY AM MVFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND THUS FORECASTS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS. MOST IMPACT WAS ON IMPROVING THE SKIES AND SUNSHINE.
A WELCOME SITE AFTER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST EVENING.
USED A BASE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS AND ADDED THE SCATTERED TEXTURE OF
THE HRRR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THEME IS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IS IN THE HRRR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER IT SHOWS EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. CHANCE OF RAIN...IN HRRR...IS VERY LOW IN SOUTHEAST.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE AND SPC HAS AN OUTLOOK FOR THIS...SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO IN THUNDERSTORMS USED STRONGER
VARIETY FOR WORDING.
RADAR INDICATES HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING IN WEST/NW PA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AS NEED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE DRY OUT.
NICE DAY MONDAY...SOME AFTERNOON CAPE COULD BRING BACK THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ANEMIC COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY
GETS OVERRUN BY WARM AIR MONDAY AFTERNOON...850 HPA TEMPERATURES
GO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
IN THE WEST. PW AND TEMPS GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY!
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL MVFR ABOUT THE REGION THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOST
AREAS OF SCATTERED OUT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
TRIED TO TIME IN THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HEADED INTO
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PA. FIRST BATCH COULD ARRIVE IN KBFD AROUND
16Z AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 17Z IN KJST. GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH-CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THINGS DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST.
WARMER HUMID AIR COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND THUS FORECASTS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS. MOST IMPACT WAS ON IMPROVING THE SKIES AND SUNSHINE.
A WELCOME SITE AFTER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST EVENING.
USED A BASE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS AND ADDED THE SCATTERED TEXTURE OF
THE HRRR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THEME IS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IS IN THE HRRR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER IT SHOWS EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. CHANCE OF RAIN...IN HRRR...IS VERY LOW IN SOUTHEAST.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE AND SPC HAS AN OUTLOOK FOR THIS...SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO IN THUNDERSTORMS USED STRONGER
VARIETY FOR WORDING.
RADAR INDICATES HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING IN WEST/NW PA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AS NEED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE DRY OUT.
NICE DAY MONDAY...SOME AFTERNOON CAPE COULD BRING BACK THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ANEMIC COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY
GETS OVERRUN BY WARM AIR MONDAY AFTERNOON...850 HPA TEMPERATURES
GO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
IN THE WEST. PW AND TEMPS GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY!
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER IS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN TAF
SITES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES IN MVFR CIGS. THESE
REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NW LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
811 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM WILL WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER TODAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 90S ON TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BY
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEANED UP THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE CLEAR SLOT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS
OF BILL OFF THE COAST AND THE SHORT WAVES AND CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MOST GUIDANCE AND DATA SHOWS A STRONG MESO RIDGE
AND OF COURSE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION. A GOOD SLICE OF CENTRAL
PA IS MOSTLY CLEAR...THOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS LOW CLOUDS ARE
RUSHING IN TO FILL THE GAPS.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE THIS AM.
SHORT WAVE TO WEST AND A FORECAST SURGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PW...PRETTY HIGH ALREADY...AND SOME CAPE ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET IMPLY CONVECTION AND PERHAPS STRONG CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 10Z HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. NOT VERY ORGANIZED. BUT THE
FEATURES THEMSELVES HAD PUT SW PORTIONS OF PA IN A SLIGHT RISK
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT GENERAL THUNDER WITH STRONG STORMS POTENTIAL IN FORECAST. NOT
SURE EXACTLY WHERE. PERHAPS LATER HRRR RUNS WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE
THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BEHIND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND
OVERNIGHT THE PW FINALLY DROPS. THE STICKY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT AM MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY BUT NEAR NORMAL SUMMER DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER IS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN TAF
SITES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES IN MVFR CIGS. THESE
REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NW LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF SHOWERS...AND WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. HRRR HAS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN
ZONES...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM IN REALITY. ONLY UPDATE TO
NEAR TERM FORECAST IS FOR TEMPERATURES...TO BLEND IN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
AS OF 800 PM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AROUND THE AREA AND FURTHER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MAY DRIFT
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. COLD POOL FROM STORM
OUTFLOWS HAS REDUCED THE TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EFFECT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK GUSTS IN SOME AREAS
FROM OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FOG IS NOT FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO REDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOLLOWING MONDAYS
DEEP MIX-OUT OF SURFACE MOISTURE.
AS OF 430 PM EDT...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT AREAS TO
THE EAST. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS ACTIVITY CONTINUING BUT MOVING OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND DECREASING AFTER 0Z. ADJUST
POP AND WEATHER FOR LATEST RADAR AND CAM TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES IN RAIN-AFFECTED AREAS.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...EXPECT THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CVRG ACRS THE
MTNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE PIEDMONT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HTG THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE NOMINALLY LESS SUPPRESSIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER LLVL MOISTURE AND MEAN FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL PLAN
ON RAMPING UP TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MTN CVRG AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE...PEAKING NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN TOMORROW. SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX LOWER INTO/THRU THE
60S...KEEPING PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL BE LOSING STEAM AS IT GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN ALLOWING
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO DROP INTO THE LEE TROUGH EARLY WED
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE SC...SW INTO NE GA. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING NE AS A WARM FRONT ON THU AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO NOSE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU WHICH WILL KEEP THICKNESSES HIGH WHICH SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
THE HOT TEMPS.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS TUE
EVENING...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS IT TRIES TO TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS IN A
DIMINISHING CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
ON WED...MODEL RESPONSE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT IS RATHER MUTED
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS PROFILES EXHIBIT SOME DRYING AND QUITE A
BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST THERE.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH SBCAPES FORECAST TO EXCEED
2000J WITH LESS CIN TO OVERCOME. PLUS SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL HAVE SOLID SCT TYPE POPS
ALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY SLIP INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT WED EVENING...SO WILL HAVE
POPS INCREASING THERE WED EVENING. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT...SO WILL TREND
FORECAST TOWARD NAM/SREF WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY DRYER.
ON THU...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO WED EVEN WITH THE WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE CAPE...BUT PROFILES AGAIN SHOW ENOUGH CIN OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WILL AGAIN FEATURE SCT
TYPE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON IN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ENVIORNMENT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY BUT BELOW RECORD
LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE UPPER RIDGING STEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY SUNDAY...THE
UPPER PATTERN IS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND VERY STEEP RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
LOWS BEING GENERATED TO OUR WEST AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD. ON
FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE DAY/NIGHT AS A GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. ON SAT...ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO SPIN UP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FCST AREA OR JUST TO OUR NE AND THEN SLOWLY
PROPAGATE NE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A BROAD AREA OF DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE FCST AREA
BY EARLY SAT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA THRU ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF
SUN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWS WAKE FOR MONDAY. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS
ENDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CEASED WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. FAIR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL...AND NO RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO OLD STORM OUTFLOWS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH ONLY VERY WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING. THERE IS LESS CHANCE OF
FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM THE DEEP MIXING EXPERIENCED ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH BASES DOWN TO 5000
FEET AGL WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES FOR THUNDER DECREASES ON TUESDAY DUE TO
SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND NO OBVIOUS LIFTING MECHANISM.
OUTLOOK...ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WJM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JP/JPT
AVIATION...WJM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
823 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AROUND THE AREA AND FURTHER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT MAY DRIFT
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. COLD POOL FROM STORM
OUTFLOWS HAS REDUCED THE TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EFFECT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK GUSTS IN SOME AREAS
FROM OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FOG IS NOT FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO REDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOLLOWING MONDAYS
DEEP MIX-OUT OF SURFACE MOISTURE.
AS OF 430 PM EDT...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT AREAS TO
THE EAST. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS ACTIVITY CONTINUING BUT MOVING OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND DECREASING AFTER 0Z. ADJUST
POP AND WEATHER FOR LATEST RADAR AND CAM TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES IN RAIN-AFFECTED AREAS.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...EXPECT THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CVRG ACRS THE
MTNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE PIEDMONT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HTG THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE NOMINALLY LESS SUPPRESSIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER LLVL MOISTURE AND MEAN FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL PLAN
ON RAMPING UP TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MTN CVRG AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE...PEAKING NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN TOMORROW. SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX LOWER INTO/THRU THE
60S...KEEPING PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL BE LOSING STEAM AS IT GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN ALLOWING
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO DROP INTO THE LEE TROUGH EARLY WED
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE SC...SW INTO NE GA. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING NE AS A WARM FRONT ON THU AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO NOSE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU WHICH WILL KEEP THICKNESSES HIGH WHICH SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
THE HOT TEMPS.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS TUE
EVENING...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS IT TRIES TO TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS IN A
DIMINISHING CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
ON WED...MODEL RESPONSE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT IS RATHER MUTED
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS PROFILES EXHIBIT SOME DRYING AND QUITE A
BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST THERE.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH SBCAPES FORECAST TO EXCEED
2000J WITH LESS CIN TO OVERCOME. PLUS SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL HAVE SOLID SCT TYPE POPS
ALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY SLIP INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT WED EVENING...SO WILL HAVE
POPS INCREASING THERE WED EVENING. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT...SO WILL TREND
FORECAST TOWARD NAM/SREF WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY DRYER.
ON THU...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO WED EVEN WITH THE WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE CAPE...BUT PROFILES AGAIN SHOW ENOUGH CIN OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WILL AGAIN FEATURE SCT
TYPE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON IN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ENVIORNMENT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY BUT BELOW RECORD
LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE UPPER RIDGING STEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY SUNDAY...THE
UPPER PATTERN IS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND VERY STEEP RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
LOWS BEING GENERATED TO OUR WEST AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD. ON
FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE DAY/NIGHT AS A GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. ON SAT...ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO SPIN UP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FCST AREA OR JUST TO OUR NE AND THEN SLOWLY
PROPAGATE NE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A BROAD AREA OF DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE FCST AREA
BY EARLY SAT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA THRU ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF
SUN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWS WAKE FOR MONDAY. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS
ENDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CEASED WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. FAIR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL...AND NO RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO OLD STORM OUTFLOWS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH ONLY VERY WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING. THERE IS LESS CHANCE OF
FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM THE DEEP MIXING EXPERIENCED ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH BASES DOWN TO 5000
FEET AGL WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES FOR THUNDER DECREASES ON TUESDAY DUE TO
SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND NO OBVIOUS LIFTING MECHANISM.
OUTLOOK...ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 80% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WJM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JP/JPT
AVIATION...WJM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. FULL FCST DISCUSSION
TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE TSRA/FOG ISSUES AT KAVL. WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FLOW
INITIALIZING NW...HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BACK SW WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.
THUS...CROSS WIND ISSUES COULD ARISE AT KCLT OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER FEW/SCT LOW VFR CU AND
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THUS KAVL TAF
FEATURES VCTS MENTION. FRONTAL AXIS TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE FAVORING AN MCS ADVECTING
INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE THIS EVENING. ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING
TOWARD EROSION OF THIS BAND OF CONVECTION THEREFORE NO MENTION IN
ANY TAF OTHER THAN SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS AT KAVL/KHKY. DEEP LAYER
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH YIELDING RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CU.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BLOSSOM OVER THE SW
MTNS. ASIDE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTN...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A FRONTAL ASSOCIATED MCS
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY AND NORTHEAST TN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES/ENTERS WESTERN NC...THUS NO CHANGES TO
POPS WERE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH SKY TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS/SAT AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION
NEEDED AT KAVL. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY WINDS
AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 74%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...NO SIGFNT CHANGES NEED TO THE FCST. TEMPS AND
TD/S TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN UPSTATE WHERE HR/LYS
WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION
NEEDED AT KAVL. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY WINDS
AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...GSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORNING FG/BR AT KAVL AND
KHKY. SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL
ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION NEEDED AT KAVL.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO
W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...GSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0530 UTC UPDATE...NO SIGFNT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST GRIDS. SKY AND
POP WERE ADJ DOWN WHILE TEMPS AND TD/S WERE WITHIN THE DIURNAL FCST
CURVE MOST LOCALES.
0200 UTC UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF KCLT POPPED-UP IN THE
LAST HOUR...BUT QUICKLY DISPERSED...LEAVING THE CWA NEARLY
SHOWER-FREE. REMNANTS OF THESE SHOWERS...THEMSELVES RELATED TO THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL...ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH EASTWARD BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.
REST OF UPDATES TO BLEND IN LATEST OBS FOR SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 720 PM...MOST SHOWERS AND ALL LIGHTNING HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HRRR CONTINUES THE TREND OF DECLINING PRECIP SUNDAY
MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST TO CLEAR MOST PRECIPITATION AND UPDATE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CIN TO OVERCOME. HENCE...POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE CIN MAY BE OVERCOME WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING AMIDST BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THANKS TO STRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE PATTERN
FEATURES AN ELONGATED/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION NORTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME...A TROF IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFORE MENTIONED FRONT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM ACTUALLY PROVIDING HINTS OF AN ONGOING
FRONTAL MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
BEING LOWEST AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT ACROSS THESE
ZONES...CANNOT RULE OUT SUCH. EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
STRUGGLE AS IT SLIDES DEEPER INTO THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER BY EARLY
MORNING MONDAY...IF IT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE FIRST
PLACE. POPS WILL INITIALIZE AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE TAPERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
FROM THAT POINT ON GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEING DIURNAL IN
NATURE. OVERALL THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SLIGHT/CHANCE MTN AND FOOTHILL POPS ARE FAVORED.
SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY GIVE MUCH SUPPORT TO THE RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA STRUGGLING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE...THUS
TUESDAYS POPS FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SW MTNS. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHEAR THUS EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EITHER DAY TO
BE PULSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE OF NOTE AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH TO YIELD INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID
DAYS. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PIEDMONT APPROACHING/EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK...POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS. EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BEING A POSSIBILITY
EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SAT...THE FLAT BUT STILL HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THRU MIDWEEK...WHILE FASTER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE RIDGE ACRS THE NERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IS THAT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL LAY OUT A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH STALLS TO OUR NORTH WED AS
THE WAVE PULLS AWAY. LATEST AVBL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HOWEVER DOES SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL OVER OUR AREA THU AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ARRIVE THU NIGHT. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE WILL SEE ACTIVE WX GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FCST NEAR-RECORD MAXES WED AND THU...THOUGH THE FAVORED BLEND HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE LAST CYCLE...SO A HWO MENTION STILL
IS UNWARRANTED. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. GFS PROFILES HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED POOR MIDLEVEL TEMPS WITHIN THE RIDGE WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT CAPPED WED AND THU AFTNS...BUT THE LATEST RUN
SEEMS TO REFLECT A WEAKER RIDGE AND SUGGESTS FREE CONVECTION THERE.
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MEAN PULSE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE OF SOME CONCERN ON THESE DAYS. WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE HOWEVER. TO SUMMARIZE...ON WED-THU POPS
PEAK AT A HIGH CHC MTNS AND SCHC TO LOW CHC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
WARRANTS POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWFA
SOLIDLY IN CHC RANGE THRU EARLY SUNDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SHEAR PARAMETERS WAX LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORNING FG/BR AT KAVL AND
KHKY. SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL
ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION NEEDED AT KAVL.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO
W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...DEO/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATED TO REMOVE TH HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE HEAT IS IN
STORE FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND HAZE HAS PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING AS HIGH AS THEY COULD HAVE. FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT
JOB WITH COMPLEX. TO THE WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS BUILDING. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 105 AT
JONESBORO AND WEST MEMPHIS.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WILL PUSH EAST
AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THEN START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID PERIOD. THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS
DELTA INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
TEMPS MAY HIT THE UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S IN SOME PLACES SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS AFTER
23/15Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
605 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT
JOB WITH COMPLEX. TO THE WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS BUILDING. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 105 AT
JONESBORO AND WEST MEMPHIS.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WILL PUSH EAST
AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THEN START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID PERIOD. THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS
DELTA INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
TEMPS MAY HIT THE UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S IN SOME PLACES SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS AFTER
23/15Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER HRRR MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FOR
THAT AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT BIGGER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST IN
CURRENT WATCH AREA. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE MEG AREA...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO THE REST
OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 596 DM. BY THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...BRINGING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES WHILE
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 94 73 96 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 73 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RULE THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW CAVEATS.
VCNTY STORMS COULD AFFECT BNA/CSV LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP ALL SITES BUT ESPECIALLY CSV.
WINDS COULD GUST TO 15 TO 25 THIS AFTERNOON BNA/CKV.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A VERY WARM HUMID MORNING ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
OVER 100 THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONGOING...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOME LIFT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...CONCERNED
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR SPREAD OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY INTO THE KY BORDER COUNTIES AND UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.
SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS IN FACT DO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY. THUS WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. REST OF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START OUT. SOME MVFR IVS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AT KCSV FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW GUSTS TO 15-17 KTS.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH TODAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SURE
KNOWS HOW TO START OUT WITH A BANG...HELLO HEAT! A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING AS BLOW
OFF CIRRUS FROM A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INVADES THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT HIGHS
TODAY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. HIGHS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSING IN ON 100F DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SURPASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE
THE MOST BRUTAL CONDITIONS AS FAR AS HEAT IS CONCERNED...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
NOW...WILL COVER THE HEAT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONCERNING THIS TIME FRAME AS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT QUITE HIT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE WILL FINALLY BREAK
DOWN ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO INVADE THE AREA EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
AROUND...HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNBEARABLE...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 90S. NOTICE I SAID QUITE AS UNBEARABLE SINCE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY BETWEEN 85-87F.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 94 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 94 73 96 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 73 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY AROUND THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING.
CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 82-87 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD 20 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. W/SW WINDS AT
10-12 KTS THIS AFTN WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJBR. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE BACK TO 10 KTS BY 22/15Z.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY AROUND THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING.
CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 82-87 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD 20 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
940 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A VERY WARM HUMID MORNING ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
OVER 100 THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONGOING...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOME LIFT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...CONCERNED
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR SPREAD OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY INTO THE KY BORDER COUNTIES AND UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.
SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS IN FACT DO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY. THUS WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. REST OF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START OUT. SOME MVFR IVS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AT KCSV FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW GUSTS TO 15-17 KTS.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH TODAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SURE
KNOWS HOW TO START OUT WITH A BANG...HELLO HEAT! A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING AS BLOW
OFF CIRRUS FROM A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INVADES THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT HIGHS
TODAY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. HIGHS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSING IN ON 100F DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SURPASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE
THE MOST BRUTAL CONDITIONS AS FAR AS HEAT IS CONCERNED...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
NOW...WILL COVER THE HEAT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONCERNING THIS TIME FRAME AS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT QUITE HIT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE WILL FINALLY BREAK
DOWN ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO INVADE THE AREA EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
AROUND...HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNBEARABLE...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 90S. NOTICE I SAID QUITE AS UNBEARABLE SINCE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY BETWEEN 85-87F.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 94 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 92 73 93 74 / 20 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 88 70 88 71 / 20 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 94 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 93 73 94 73 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 93 74 94 74 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE ONLY REMNANTS IS AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES
IN TENNESSEE. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z WRF INDICATE ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THUS FAR
TODAY. CURRENT HEAT INDEX READING IN MEMPHIS IS AROUND 101-102
DEGREES.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND 7 PM. CIRRUS
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA THIS SHOULD KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. READINGS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE WARMER ON SUNDAY THUS HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 105 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE HEAT WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE WAVERING ON
HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE THUS ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR ON ABOUT EACH DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
TO PUT ANY MENTION IN FORECAST YET. BY WEDNESDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT OCCURS THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD HIT AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.AVIATION...
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER MEXICO AND HAVE
VCSH FOR KDRT THROUGH THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VCSH MENTIONED AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF ONLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE BEST FORCING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR
CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AS BR AND
IFR/MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CIGS RISE AS BR DISSIPATES
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO
11 KTS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUTFLOWS
FROM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THERE IS NOT MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE REST
OF THE CWA REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY MUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HRRR IS STILL FORECASTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE 30 POPS THIS EVENING
CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER LIFT IN THIS PART
OF THE CWA.
FOR TOMORROW...THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MIX OUT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY...BUT OUR
WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE A NON-PLAYER WEATHER WISE. THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REMAIN OPENED UP WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
SHIFTING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THERE WILL BE A
BOUNDARY PRESENT AND DECENT MOISTURE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS BECAUSE OF MANY UNKNOWNS ON THE MESOSCALE BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 90 73 90 74 / 10 20 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 89 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 88 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 73 89 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 89 74 / 10 20 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 90 74 89 75 / - 20 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 74 88 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 74 89 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY A COUPLE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE IS
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON`S INLAND POPS INTO A 20% TO 30% RANGE. ALSO SHOULD
KEEP OUR EYES ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STORMS CURRENTLY SURGING TO THE
NORTH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUNS APPEAR
TO BE PICKING THIS ACTIVITY UP...AND THEY KEEP IT ALL TO OUR WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOME OF OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER. APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WE WILL PROBABLY BE OK WITH GOING
WITH POPS AROUND 20%. BY NEXT WEEKEND... IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST COULD HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO MAYBE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AND THIS FEATURE COULD
BECOME OUR AREA`S NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
42
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT WOULD BE MAINLY DRY GIVEN
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LOWER DECK HAVING MOSTLY
THINNED OUT WITH WIND PARALLEL LINES OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. RADAR RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AROUND PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CHANCES OF TSTRMS
OCCURRING AT ANY TAF SITE FAIRLY LOW. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT NW
SITES FOR NOW...FROM KIAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE EXISTING CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD DROP BOUNDARIES LEADING TO NEW CONVECTION. WILL WATCH RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADD TSTRMS TO TAFS IF NEEDED. REMAINDER
OF TAF FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE CLOSELY AS TONIGHTS PATTERN AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THIS WOULD
IMPLY MVFR CIGS FROM CXO ON NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...AND
MAINLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR EVEN AT SOUTHERN SITES...KIAH ON SOUTH...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY DEEPER MOIST LAYER THAN OCCURED LAST
NIGHT. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 75 91 75 / 20 10 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 0 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 80 87 79 / 10 10 0 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING INTO VFR CATEGORIES AT THE PRESENT
TIME. CONVECTION FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS SEVERAL THINGS
SEEM TO BE AT PLAY. MORNING ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN WITHIN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT TO THE EAST OF A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS.
CURRENTLY ON RADAR...THERE IS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ORIENTED
ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH...LIFTING TO THE NNW. THERE IS NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE HOW
MUCH REDEVELOPMENT THERE MAY BE LATER TODAY TO THE EAST. CURRENT
THINKING IS NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS GOING TO OCCUR AND
WILL JUST MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS OR THUNDER IN THE NEAR TERM
WITH NOTHING MENTIONED ALONG THE I-35 TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
THEREFORE...WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING FOR
DRT IF ANY ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AND WILL AMEND IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR CONVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS
MOST EASILY SEEN ON THE 12Z 700 MB ANALYSIS AND IN WV IMAGERY.
BASED ON THIS MORNING DEVELOPMENT...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
RECENT HRRR RUNS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINTER GARDEN AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS. THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO RE-TREND HOURLY VARIABLES
THROUGH 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
KDRT TERMINAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
KAUS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SO FELT VCTS WAS WARRANTED.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHES FROM NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND CONTINUES DEEP INTO MEXICO. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CWA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE ESCARPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS HAS LED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT EDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. MODELS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES...THEN POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...SOUTHWEST OF A KERRVILLE TO PLEASANTON LINE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA POSSIBLE
FROM MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION PIVOTING NORTH INTO THE
AREA...AROUND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAHULIA MEXICO ON SATELLITE AND ANALYZED BY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL POOLED AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED
IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS INSIST DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL NVA. THE DRYING CONTINUES FURTHER
WEST INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NUDGING WEST.
THIS WILL CONFINE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO THE RIO
GRANDE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AFTER DRYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 BOTH DAYS. DRYING THEN TAKES PLACE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRYING TO EDGE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOWN TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS COULD PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD WORK INTO NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 74 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 91 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 74 91 73 90 / 50 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 74 90 74 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 74 89 72 89 / 60 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 90 73 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 75 90 74 90 / 30 10 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS
MOST EASILY SEEN ON THE 12Z 700 MB ANALYSIS AND IN WV IMAGERY.
BASED ON THIS MORNING DEVELOPMENT...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
RECENT HRRR RUNS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINTER GARDEN AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS. THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO RE-TREND HOURLY VARIABLES
THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
KDRT TERMINAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
KAUS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SO FELT VCTS WAS WARRANTED.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHES FROM NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND CONTINUES DEEP INTO MEXICO. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CWA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE ESCARPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS HAS LED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT EDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. MODELS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES...THEN POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...SOUTHWEST OF A KERRVILLE TO PLEASANTON LINE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA POSSIBLE
FROM MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION PIVOTING NORTH INTO THE
AREA...AROUND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAHULIA MEXICO ON SATELLITE AND ANALYZED BY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL POOLED AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED
IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS INSIST DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL NVA. THE DRYING CONTINUES FURTHER
WEST INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NUDGING WEST.
THIS WILL CONFINE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO THE RIO
GRANDE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AFTER DRYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 BOTH DAYS. DRYING THEN TAKES PLACE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRYING TO EDGE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOWN TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS COULD PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD WORK INTO NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 74 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 91 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 74 91 73 90 / 50 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 74 90 74 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 74 89 72 89 / 60 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 90 73 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 75 90 74 90 / 30 10 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL TURN COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING
TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. AN OUTFLOW AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARY AND SOLAR
HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.THE LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100
ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A REIDSVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO
BUCKINGHAM VIRGINIA LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION FOR
THE CURRENT RECORDS.
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
DECREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND BLENDED TOWARDS THE RNK WRFARW AND HRRR FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LATEST OBS AND CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO NORTH OF I-64. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE
PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DISSIPATED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT...THE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION OR
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 10PM-11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...CLOUDS WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TROUGH ROUGHLY 2-3AM TUESDAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...SO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA
IS POSSIBLE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE. READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY...THE FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST....OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...WITH THE
BEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS MAY
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 20 C IN THE WEST AND 24 C
IN THE EAST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICIES
WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 100 TO 102 RANGE ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A REIDSVILLE NC TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT REMAINS LINED UP FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION REMAIN CLOSE TO 590DM WITH A PIECE OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENT...SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EACH DAY AT THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NCEP FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
THURSDAY. SO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 731 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR VSBYS IN THE PREFERRED RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTED A RESURGENCE OF
MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A
MVFR CIG ALONG AND NEAR A KBLF-KLWB LINE.
ON TUESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
LATE MORNING. LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OF MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB AREA OR PARTS WEST AROUND
18Z/2PM. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OF AREAS
OF FOG TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS/CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL TURN COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
DECREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND BLENDED TOWARDS THE RNK WRFARW AND HRRR FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LATEST OBS AND CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO NORTH OF I-64. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE
PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DISSIPATED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT...THE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION OR
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 10PM-11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...CLOUDS WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TROUGH ROUGHLY 2-3AM TUESDAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...SO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA
IS POSSIBLE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE. READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY...THE FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST....OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...WITH THE
BEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS MAY
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 20 C IN THE WEST AND 24 C
IN THE EAST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICIES
WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 100 TO 102 RANGE ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A REIDSVILLE NC TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT REMAINS LINED UP FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION REMAIN CLOSE TO 590DM WITH A PIECE OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENT...SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EACH DAY AT THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NCEP FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
THURSDAY. SO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 731 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR VSBYS IN THE PREFERRED RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTED A RESURGENCE OF
MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A
MVFR CIG ALONG AND NEAR A KBLF-KLWB LINE.
ON TUESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
LATE MORNING. LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OF MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB AREA OR PARTS WEST AROUND
18Z/2PM. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OF AREAS
OF FOG TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly floe with several week disturbances will result in a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through about mid-week
across the northern mountains. Temperatures will remain warmer
than normal for this time of year. A strong ridge of high pressure
will build into the region by the weekend resulting in very warm
temperatures and sunny skies.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night: Satellite reveals a weak trof along
the coast and an influx of mid and high level moisture under
broad southwesterly flow. A SW to NE ribbon of instability
stretches from south-central Oregon to Missoula, MT where we are
seeing scattered thunderstorms. Per latest HRRR and deterministic
models, this should remain nearly stationary...residing just south
of my Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie zones. We are seeing numerous
weak echoes north of this instability which is bringing passing
virga and sprinkles. There is still a small chance for an isolated
thunderstorm near the Cascade Crest with RUC13 data showing up to
800 J/kg sb cape along and west of the CAPE.
The coastal shortwave will track inland on Monday and along the
International Border Monday night. Surface based instability
Monday afternoon will keep a small risk for thunderstorms in the
Cascades then transition toward a nocturnal shower or thunderstorm
event as the wave tracks along the Canadian Border. This is no
slam dunk by any means but this is where models agree on the best
forcing. The NAM is a bit deeper with this wave but has little
support from the SREF. Nonetheless...we will need to keep an eye
on trends as the deeper shortwave could allow eLevated convection
possible into far southeast as well.
Temperatures the next 48 hours will remain mild with highs in the
70s to 80s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Winds will be
light. /sb
Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow will be across the
region with a couple of weak short wave disturbances moving
through southern B.C. Monday night/Tuesday, again on Thursday,
with weak riding on Wednesday in between systems. The models are
generating some Pacific moisture with both of these waves and that
will help to destabilize the atmosphere late in the day. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and just south of the
Canadian border...and mainly tied to the higher terrain where up-
sloping flow will give a little boost to the lifting process. It
doesn`t look like any of these showers or thunderstorms will be
particularly strong, but enough moisture will be available for
brief very heavy showers at times. Otherwise sunny and warm with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Friday and through the weekend a strong ridge of high pressure
will build into the west and will turn the weather very hot, very
dry and sunny into the first part of next week. As was mentioned
in previous discussions it`s gonna be a hot one. 850 mb temps
increase to 22-23C Friday and up to 28-30C by Sunday. This will
result in temps in the 90s Friday...mid 90s to just above 100 on
Saturday and scorching on Sunday with highs in the upper 90s to
around 105-107, this is about 20 degrees above normal. In addition
relative humidity will drop into the teens with several areas
drying out into the single digits...and poor recoveries on mid
slopes and ridges. The fuels that carry fire are already drier
then average and the hot dry conditions will dry the fuels out
further...to historic levels. Luckily not much wind is expected
under the ridge. Looking further out into the following week for
the last few days of June it doesn`t look like the ridge will have
any tendency to break down and the temperatures will remain just
as hot if not a few degrees hotter. I may have mentioned this
earlier in this discussion, but it`s gonna be hot. Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Middle and high clouds associated with a weak weather
disturbance moving up from the south will pass over the aviation
area today. A few midlevel cells will bring the potential for
isolated sprinkles but little in the way of precipitation. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the Cascade Crest btwn
22-03z. Breezy northerly winds are currently coming down the
Okanogan Valley but should diminish aft 21z. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 82 56 82 56 87 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 81 54 81 52 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 0
Pullman 48 79 50 79 48 84 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 58 86 59 87 57 92 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 52 84 53 85 53 90 / 10 10 20 20 10 10
Sandpoint 46 80 49 80 48 85 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 50 79 51 80 49 85 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
Moses Lake 57 87 56 87 57 92 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 64 85 62 89 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Omak 55 86 55 88 56 92 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CDFNT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAIRLY WEEK WHILE
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING EXITING NORTHEAST WI. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS SE CWA UNTIL FRONT PASSES AND
DRIER...LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. WL PROBABLY
NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT MOST AREAS.
EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER AFFECTING ERN TAF SITES NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...EXPECT LINGERING SCT LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO THIN WITH CS
SHIELD OVER SRN THINNING LATER IN THE NIGHT AS NRN IL CONVECTION
GRADUALLY WANES.
&&
.MARINE...WL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVY EXPIRE AT 03Z AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT. WINDS WL
PICK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAY HAVE A FEW
GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA CLOSE TO SHORE BUT COOLER
LAKE MI WATERS WL PREVENT STRONGER GUSTS FROM MIXING TO LAKE SFC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SWLY WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30 MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
MIXING CEASES TOWARD EVENING. OTHERWISE CHANCES OF TSTORMS REMAIN
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CAPE BUILDS AND CIN
WEAKENS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN WI. OVERALL THOUGH BELIEVE
SOME CIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA AND LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
ONLY LOW CHANCES OF SVR TSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL ONLY
INDICATES MINOR DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI BUT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT
OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AM. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO WI LATE ON
TUE. A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXIT
REGION OF A ZONAL JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
INTO THE REGION...REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOME
SATURATED JUST THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS. MODEST INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR..WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS/GEM
COME IN WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LOW AND PRECIP BULLSEYE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MORE MEAGER LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESS PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA...SE WI WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW
ROUNDS OF VERY LIGHT QPF WHILE THE EURO REMAINS DRY. WILL BE
KEEPING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS QPF...BUT AT THIS
POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN
MODEST THE INSTABILITY IN BOTH MODELS...THERE IS A SHOT AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
GUSTY SWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. ALSO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FROM 1.5-3.0
KFT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO SE WI AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON TUE.
MARINE...
BREEZY SWLY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.
BEACHES...
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
BEACHES OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WAS OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS CROSSING NORTHERN MN WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE THAT FORMED FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WAS OVER LOWER
MI. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAS HELPED
TO PREVENT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FROM FIRING. RAP DEPICTING
ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 200 J/KG OF MLCIN. THIS WAS DESPITE A
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENT TROUGH. THAT FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA. MUCH DRIER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2 INCH RANGE OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL MN.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL...ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE COLD
FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER MN WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUE. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGHS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 00Z...TAKING ANY
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH IT...WHICH ARE MINIMAL DUE TO ALL OF THE
MLCIN...LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING IN THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET CORE TRACKING INTO NORTHERN WI. MAY STILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS...BUT THAT TOO
SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN. ALL OF
TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME MID CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN OUR TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AS A RESULT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING THERE AND RECENT RAIN...BUT
ENOUGH WIND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PREVENT FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S PER GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. 925MB TEMPS OF
16-18C ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW
80S POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH BECOMES EVEN MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANAMOULSY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS...A COUPLE OF TIME PERIODS OF
CONCERN...
1. WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
LOOKS TO TRACK INTO ILLINOIS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PULL THE
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH STALLS NEAR I-70 ON TUESDAY...BACK
NORTHWARD. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST
SOUTH...HOLDING IT OVER NORTHERN MO...WHILE THE GFS...NAM AND
CANADIAN PULL IT AT LEAST TO I-80. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ISENTROPICALLY AND FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE...MAY
TRY TO MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS FROM THE PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WHICH ISNT
GOOD FOR LIFTING IT NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHEAST
IOWA CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
2. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ARE PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THEY PRODUCE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THAT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ON WEDNESDAY. LIKE THE MODEL SPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE NAM
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH. THE LATTER 3
MODELS PRODUCE MUCH MORE CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION FOR US WHILE
THE ECMWF IS NEARLY DRY WITH ITS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN BIAS OVERALL THIS YEAR TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HOLDING UP THE FRONT...FEEL A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE MOST PART ARE IN THE 20-50 RANGE. HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT
ANY SEVERE CHANCES GIVEN THIS SPREAD IN CONVECTION LOCATION AS
WELL.
3. BEYOND THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DRIVING
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PROBLEM IS THE
MOISTURE AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER THE SHORTWAVES PASS ON
THURSDAY GETS SHUNTED DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. NEW 22.12Z ECMWF
REALLY HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AND DEPICTS MONDAY AS THE
ONLY TIME PERIOD OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN BOTH WANT TO KEEP THE AREA GETTING HIT BY
SPORADIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SHORTWAVES. IT APPEARS THESE MODELS
MAY BE PRODUCING TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO BOOST UP BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO GIVE SOME DRY PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH TUE. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT WITH SKC/SCT SKIES. WINDS WILL STAY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT-TUE...BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TUE EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE STORMS FROM THIS MORNING HIT MUCH OF THE UPPER IOWA RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CEDAR RIVER BASIN PRETTY HARD.
COMBINATION OF RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TURKEY AND SOUTHERN END OF THE
KICKAPOO ALSO GOT HIT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. AS A
RESULT...THESE RIVERS ARE RISING WITH SOME FLOOD WARNINGS OUT.
SINCE THEY ARE QUICK RESPONDING...MOST SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AS
DEW POINTS DROP WITH PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S. RAISED HIGHS NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS LINGERING UNTIL LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA WITH LAKE BREEZE. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
LINGER FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH ANY STORMS.
STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPEND ON
IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS AFTER MORNING STORMS MOVE OUT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THEY DO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
KEPT PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE ZONE...NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON...PER AREA WEB CAMERAS. REST OF THE NEARSHORE AREA
LOOKS FAIRLY FREE OF ANY FOG. COOLER AREAS TO THE WELL NORTH OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL HAVE DENSE FOG INTO
MONDAY. KEPT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SIMILAR
DEW POINTS TO LAST NIGHT REMAINING OVER THE WATERS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PASSING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...SHOULD BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL
VEER NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
THAT SAW THE BETTER RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. WEB CAMS AND OBS CURRENTLY
SHOW CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...PROBABLY
DUE TO SLOWLY RETREATING CIRRUS SHIELD. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH
SPS AND MONITOR CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR QUIET WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS REGION. SHOULD SEE ANY LOW STRATUS/FOG
MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ENOUGH SUN AND 925 MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TRIGGERING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BUCKLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE MUCH OF THE
MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 70-80KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IT WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL NOSE UP INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA ON INTO
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
CONVECTION TRACKS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN SEEMS TO BE A CONVERGENCE POINT IN
THE 21.00Z MODELS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND FEEDING INTO THESE MORNING STORMS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORMS IF THEY ENTER THE REGION.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UP OF MICHIGAN WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ANGLING DOWN TOWARD EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FIRMLY PUT SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER AROUND
700MB SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CAPPED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEW
POINTS RISE TO THE LOW 70S. SB/MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFIED 21.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE STILL
PRODUCING TOO HIGH OF SFC DEW POINTS OF AROUND 77-80F. THIS CAP
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZING CONVECTION...BUT DOES LOOK FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH LITTLE VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS
GOING UP TO WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ONLY SOURCE FOR SOME
BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES WOULD BE IF THERE IS ANY LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION THOUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIPE ANY OF THIS OUT. THE
0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR DOES ANGLE ABOUT 45 DEGREES OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION COULD START OUT AS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE MERGING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. 0-1KM WIND SHEAR DOES LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...BUT SEEMS TO BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...QUITE A
BIT OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...BUT ALSO STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM
EVOLUTION...HOW FAST CONVECTION INITIATES ONCE THE CAP SHIFTS
EAST...AND HOW BIG IS THE TORNADO THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT STARTS
TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO ANY QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN SURFACE
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT COULD LIFT NORTH WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN.
TRYING TO TIME DOWN ANY OF THESE SYSTEM IS TOUGH AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DO TRY AND DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEASONAL WITH THE REGION STAYING MAINLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SEEING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CIGS IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SATURDAY RAINS. LOWER CLOUD COVER BEING REVEALED ON SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT BELOW SLOWLY DEPARTING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOWS HOW PATCHY IT
CURRENTLY IS. SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION BETTER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD HRRR SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EVERYWHERE.WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT
EXPECT ONLY LOCAL IFR VSBYS/CIGS THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WARRANTING NO MORE THAN A
PROB30 AT KMSN AND NOTHING EAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
THAT SAW THE BETTER RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. WEB CAMS AND OBS CURRENTLY
SHOW CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...PROBABLY
DUE TO SLOWLY RETREATING CIRRUS SHIELD. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH
SPS AND MONITOR CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR QUIET WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS REGION. SHOULD SEE ANY LOW STRATUS/FOG
MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ENOUGH SUN AND 925 MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TRIGGERING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET.
.MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BUCKLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE MUCH OF THE
MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 70-80KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IT WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL NOSE UP INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA ON INTO
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
CONVECTION TRACKS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN SEEMS TO BE A CONVERGENCE POINT IN
THE 21.00Z MODELS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND FEEDING INTO THESE MORNING STORMS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORMS IF THEY ENTER THE REGION.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UP OF MICHIGAN WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ANGLING DOWN TOWARD EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FIRMLY PUT SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER AROUND
700MB SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CAPPED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEW
POINTS RISE TO THE LOW 70S. SB/MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFIED 21.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE STILL
PRODUCING TOO HIGH OF SFC DEW POINTS OF AROUND 77-80F. THIS CAP
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZING CONVECTION...BUT DOES LOOK FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH LITTLE VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS
GOING UP TO WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ONLY SOURCE FOR SOME
BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES WOULD BE IF THERE IS ANY LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION THOUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIPE ANY OF THIS OUT. THE
0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR DOES ANGLE ABOUT 45 DEGREES OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION COULD START OUT AS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE MERGING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. 0-1KM WIND SHEAR DOES LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...BUT SEEMS TO BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...QUITE A
BIT OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...BUT ALSO STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM
EVOLUTION...HOW FAST CONVECTION INITIATES ONCE THE CAP SHIFTS
EAST...AND HOW BIG IS THE TORNADO THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT STARTS
TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO ANY QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN SURFACE
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT COULD LIFT NORTH WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN.
TRYING TO TIME DOWN ANY OF THESE SYSTEM IS TOUGH AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DO TRY AND DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEASONAL WITH THE REGION STAYING MAINLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SEEING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CIGS IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SATURDAY RAINS. LOWER CLOUD COVER BEING REVEALED ON SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT BELOW SLOWLY DEPARTING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOWS HOW PATCHY IT
CURRENTLY IS. SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION BETTER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD HRRR SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EVERYWHERE.WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT
EXPECT ONLY LOCAL IFR VSBYS/CIGS THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WARRANTING NO MORE THAN A
PROB30 AT KMSN AND NOTHING EAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NRN LAKE AND INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEESBURG AIRPORT RECEIVED .46 INCHES OF RAIN.
FAVORABLE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LVL
VORTICITY ANALYZED IN THE 00Z NAM/GFS MODELS AIDED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
TODAY...00Z NAM/GFS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN LIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PWATS FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SRN LATE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF DRIER AIR WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.43 INCHES AT THE
CAPE AT 00Z LAST EVENING SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD OFFSHORE FROM THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE. WILL FCST 40-50 POPS FOR
THE INTERIOR...30-40 PCT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY FROM
BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. SPC
HAS ALSO OUTLOOKED THE INTERIOR WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF A WET MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S S CSTL TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS FOR NRN INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST IN
THE EVENING WITH GFS INDICATING VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON AREAS WHERE LINGERING STABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.
THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.
STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.
THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
FRI-MON...
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE NRN JET AS IT SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE ERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A HI AMP
MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE IN THE PROCESS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS RESPOND
BY DVLPG A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THAT
WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S ON FRI...THEN TO THE
SW ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHER DIURNAL POPS OVER THE E FL COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY AOB
50PCT WITH TEMPS RETURNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...MAXES U80SL90S
AND MINS L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM KSUA-KMLB...AND THEN SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING PAST
01Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS REMAIN RATHER FLAT AT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT AT
BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. S/SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE SE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...THEN WINDS FROM THE SE/S
WILL BECOME SSW/SW TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND PERHAPS UP TO 2-3 FT FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHILE A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...SEAS 2-3FT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS IN THE AFTN/EVNG AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.CLIMATE... DAYTONA BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
YESTERDAY SET BACK IN 2009. RECORD HIGHS TODAY LOOK OUT OF REACH:
RECORDS HIGHS FOR TODAY/JUNE 23RD...
DAYTONA BEACH 100 IN 1944
ORLANDO 99 IN 1939
MELBOURNE 96 IN 1998
VERO BEACH 94 IN 2009
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
DAYTONA BEACH 77 IN 1972
VERO BEACH 79 IN 2010
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 76 92 75 / 30 20 40 10
MCO 94 76 95 75 / 50 30 50 20
MLB 91 75 89 74 / 30 10 40 10
VRB 91 75 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 40 40 50 20
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 40 20 50 20
ORL 95 77 94 76 / 40 30 50 20
FPR 91 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
408 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NRN LAKE AND INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEESBURG AIRPORT RECEIVED .46 INCHES OF RAIN.
FAVORABLE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MID LVL
VORTICITY ANALYZED IN THE 00Z NAM/GFS MODELS AIDED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
TODAY...00Z NAM/GFS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN LIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PWATS FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SRN LATE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF DRIER AIR WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.43 INCHES AT THE
CAPE AT 00Z LAST EVENING SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD OFFSHORE FROM THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE. WILL FCST 40-50 POPS FOR
THE INTERIOR...30-40 PCT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY FROM
BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. SPC
HAS ALSO OUTLOOKED THE INTERIOR WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF A WET MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S S CSTL TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS FOR NRN INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST IN
THE EVENING WITH GFS INDICATING VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON AREAS WHERE LINGERING STABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.
THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.
STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.
THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
FRI-MON...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM KSUA-KMLB...AND THEN SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING PAST
01Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS REMAIN RATHER FLAT AT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT AT
BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. S/SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE SE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...THEN WINDS FROM THE SE/S
WILL BECOME SSW/SW TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND PERHAPS UP TO 2-3 FT FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHILE A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...SEAS 2-3FT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS IN THE AFTN/EVNG AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.CLIMATE... DAYTONA BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
YESTERDAY SET BACK IN 2009. RECORD HIGHS TODAY LOOK OUT OF REACH:
RECORDS HIGHS FOR TODAY/JUNE 23RD...
DAYTONA BEACH 100 IN 1944
ORLANDO 99 IN 1939
MELBOURNE 96 IN 1998
VERO BEACH 94 IN 2009
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
DAYTONA BEACH 77 IN 1972
VERO BEACH 79 IN 2010
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 76 92 75 / 30 20 40 10
MCO 94 76 95 75 / 50 30 50 20
MLB 91 75 89 74 / 30 10 40 10
VRB 91 75 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 40 40 50 20
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 40 20 50 20
ORL 95 77 94 76 / 40 30 50 20
FPR 91 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE
SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID AFTERNOON WHILE
THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE SLOWER.
A LEE TROUGH WILL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PIEDMONT.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50
TO 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST INCREASING TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT EAST.
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
OF 45-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC
BORDER WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 40 PERCENT THURSDAY. .
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DAILY TREK TOWARDS THE CENTURY
MARK EACH AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE GENERALLY
FROM 104 TO 108 EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL THEN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS SHOULD BE A
WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE JUST AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BETTER SOUTHWARD
PUSH TO ANY COLD FRONTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BE DIURNALLY INDUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BRIEF MVFR
FORECAST IN FOG AT AGS/OGB.
SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT FOG PRONE SITES
SUCH AS AGS/OGB. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES BY 13Z. SCATTERED
CUMULUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS
LOWER BUT STILL COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY OGB WHERE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BY TONIGHT...SKIES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FROM TUE JUNE 23RD THROUGH THU JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 23...104 IN 1944
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 23...102 SET IN 1914 AND TIED IN 1956 AND 1988
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
KDVN 88D SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
JUST SOUTH OF I-80 IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DRIFTING SLOWLY
E-SE. FURTHER WEST...THE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR FREEPORT
THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES INTO FAR NE MO. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW
WINDS WERE SLOWLY ADVECTING IN A LESS HUMID AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WERE STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...WHILE
CENTRAL AND NW IA WERE IN THE 50S. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE
COLD CLOUD TOP ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MCS
COMPLEXES OVER MO...NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI.
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE CI CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BUREAU COUNTY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM.
$$
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAD DEVELOPED
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER
BOW ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPES OF 6000 J/KG IN NW MO WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IA (BEWARE OF THE GRADIENT). EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WAS 70 KNOTS...HELICITY 300 M2/S2 WITH 1 KM EHI OF 5. STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS EVIDENT ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF NEARLY
2 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN BRIEFLY QUIET
ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DETAILS WERE NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION
ABOVE BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END BY 10 OR 11 PM. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 60 ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE DVN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY OUR FAR SOUTH STILL HAVING A
CHANCE OF STORMS. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY WITH
ONLY THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE STARTING TO
AMPLIFY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEPENING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SO MADE VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CRH_INIT GRIDS. LOOK FOR THE MOST ACTIVE AND WET PART OF THE
PERIOD TO BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA WITH THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP AS MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FRONT WHICH
PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGLD.
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT KGLD SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGHER RH. LATER TUESDAY EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO B CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EXTEND WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. A NEARLY ZONAL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED
FROM NORTH OF CNU AND EXTENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF P28, THEN
WEST TO NORTH OF LBL. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAYS.
ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON QPF ACROSS THE CWA AND
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF SHOW NO QPF ACROSS THE CWA.
EARLY THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT. THE HRRR AND
NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS, THEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THEREFORE, I`LL KEEP A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE STORMS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED. IF A
SURFACE BASED STORM WERE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT COULD BECOME
SEVERE OR STRONG GIVEN MLCAPES OF 2,000 J/KG AND 30 KTS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SHOULD LIMIT HAIL
SIZE FROM ANY ORGANIZED STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY SEE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE NE BORDER.
TONIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE NE BORDER. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE. I KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA IN CASE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE FRONT. ANY COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND
WESTERN NE SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE THE
QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
THEY WILL LIKELY SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES LOCATED IN CENTRAL KS CLOSER
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. DEWPOINT ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO
REACH THE LOW 100S. ON THURSDAY THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NORTHEAST
KS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY
DURING PEAK HEATING. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT THERE COULD
BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE 80S AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE 90S. STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE CAP BREAKS AND IF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT CAN SUPPLY ENOUGH LIFT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECPITITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. ALSO, THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SHORTWAVES TRACKING OUT OF CANADA AND OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING MORE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, THE COLD FRONT WAS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
WITH WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HENNECKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND HOW HOT DOES IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE/NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
NOW IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS...CANADIAN...
AND THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET WELL NORTH. POSSIBLY A WEAK REAR QUADRANT
THAT MOVES ACROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SURFACE TROUGH
RESIDES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PROBLEM IN THE
BEGINNING COULD BE IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG PLUS THE MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW STRONG THE MID LIFT WILL BE. MODEL QPF IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE GETTING MORE THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY SHOWN. CHOSE TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY AND ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING
UP. A WEAKER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEM IS IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THEY ARE IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH.
THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND ONLY ABOUT
HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NAM. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR PLUS 15. SO WHERE WILL THE SURFACE FOCUS BE
AND IF THE CAP WILL BREAK. ALSO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LIFT IS IN
QUESTION. AGAIN DUE TO A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF FEATURES...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. SO ONCE AGAIN CHOSE ONLY TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD FEEL A HIGHER CHANCE IS
DESERVED.
DUE TO THE BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM THEY MAKE IT. CHOSE TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND CLOSER TO THE OUTPUT THAT HAS BEEN DOING BETTER RECENTLY.
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL POSITION CONTINUE. MAJORITY OF THE
OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO FELT BETTER ABOUT GOING COOLER. PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
HOURS SUPPORT HAVING THE AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS START THE AMPLIFICATION
PROCESS TO A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. FLOW
BECOMES SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION
OF WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
INITIALLY HAVE THE FRONT STAY OR START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL COLD INTRUSIONS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS GAVE ME DUE TO
THE INITIAL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST ACTIVE
AND WET PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT IT BECOMES DRIER AS THE RIDGE EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT WARM UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FRONT WHICH
PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGLD.
HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT KGLD SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGHER RH. LATER TUESDAY EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TO PROVIDE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TO PROVIDE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
05Z RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...BUT HRRR
CONTINUES TO REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH SOME LOW POPS TO BE SAFE AS
THERE IS STILL AN APPARENT BOUNDARY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN FRANKFORT AND LOUISVILLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA/OHIO. GIVEN THE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIFT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THE HI-RES MODELS
MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WILL TOSS IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 06Z AND REACH
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IF WE DO GET
CONVECTION...OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION COULD KEEP STUFF GOING PAST
SUNRISE...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY MID MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
IN THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN KY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BUILT A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT
THE SFC...THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH
VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS AND IS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY. THESE HAVE TO
SOME EXTENT DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER THAN
TO FRESHEN UP HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...SKY COVER
HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD DROPPING SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND GREAT LAKES WILL BATTLE AGAINST AN
ELONGATED AND FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH FEATURE EXERTS THE GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT
RUNS...AND PAST TRENDS FAVOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MANAGE TO DIG ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AS THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO A DESTABILIZED
AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AMPLE MOISTURE
AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S...TO
NEAR 100 AT PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
PROVIDE ONLY MINOR RELIEF...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH OUR TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE BY MID WEEK...WITH STRONG WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
KY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNER STATES AS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DEEPENING SHORTWAVES AND FALLING
HEIGHTS. BY SATURDAY...THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FIND ITSELF IN IN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN IN WHICH MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES TRAPPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SET UP ALONG THE WNW
FLOW...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. EACH
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVEN SOME MCS ACTIVITY AS THE NW FLOW DEEPENS. WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY HELPING TO PLAY A ROLL...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT HEATING CONTINUING.
BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MAINLY AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA UNLESS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH. A SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...PLACING ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN GET
HUNG UP ACROSS KY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING OUR BEST SLAM
DUNK RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...EXPECT HEAVIEST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK HEATING. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL ALSO
EXHIBIT THE BEST INSTABILITY UNDER SW FLOW...WITH CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT ABOVE 3 AND 4000 J/KG...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE IN PLACE.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK...BUT
STILL EXPECT THESE TWO DAYS TO EXHIBIT THE BEST STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SO TOO WILL THE TEMPERATURES. LOW
80S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH THE COLD
FRONT WOULD HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO OUR EAST MONDAY...WILL GENERATE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR WESTWARD AS EASTERN KY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TO PROVIDE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 905 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Forecast is on track for the overnight period. Cirrus from
convection upstream and earlier today will remain overhead. Complex
of storms currently in southern/southeast Iowa will nose dive
southward and is expected to weaken before approaching the area but
likely to bring more cirrus for the overnight and morning hours. It
may lay out an outflow boundary which could be the focus for
thunderstorm development tomorrow.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Afternoon...
Thunderstorms to our north in Michigan are sending plenty of
subsiding cirrus our way this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
indicates our cumulus field is being held at bay because of this
flow aloft, and latest radar over western KY shows earlier cells are
decaying as well. Cannot rule out an isolated shower surviving in
our southwest.
Latest HRRR indicates a line of storms would fire in southeast
Iowa/northern Illinois and head southeast through the evening,
perhaps getting to our area as just a line of gusty winds or even a
very isolated shower by daybreak Tuesday. Would expect wherever this
boundary sets up to be the focus for further convection by late
morning or early afternoon Tuesday. NAM soundings are very unstable
for the afternoon, and surface temp/dewpoints are in line with what
we expect tomorrow. Soundings show a layer of dry air in the 600-700
mb range, allowing the chance for both larger hail and stronger
downburst winds. Bust potential for this forecast would be just how
many clouds remain from the line that comes through overnight and
how this affects surface temperatures. Clouds over LEX this hour are
keeping temperatures ~5 degrees cooler than areas in the clear! Will
highlight potential for severe wind gusts and hail in the stronger
storms with our hazardous weather outlook.
Again, highs Tuesday will depend greatly on extent of clouds in the
morning. Based on current forecast, expect highs around 90. This
should push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for most
locations. The best chance to get up to around 100 would be south of
the I-64 corridor and west of a Bardstown to Glasgow line.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an expansive ridge across the southern CONUS, placing the
Ohio Valley on the periphery of the swift northwest flow found
across much of the northern CONUS. This regime will amplify through
the end of the long term period as the southern ridge breaks down
and a trough builds into the Ohio Valley, bringing some relief from
the precip chances and the hot and humid weather we`ve experienced
as of late.
Generally low-resolution synoptic models are notorious for
struggling with convection and MCS development, so confidence in the
long term period on timing and convective coverage is generally low,
especially Wednesday. That being said, have attempted to best time
the convection using a general model blend and ensemble data. This
method brings just chance pops to the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as there does not appear to be any substantial
triggering PV anomaly to spark convection.
By Thursday, the southern ridge will begin to break down as a strong
trough dives into the northern CONUS. Timing as of now keeps much
of the convection just north of the region through much of the
daylight hours on Thursday. Good southwesterly flow ahead of an
area of low pressure coupled with some expected sunshine and 850mb
temps rising to around 20C means Thursday could end up being quite
warm, assuming clouds/precip remain to the north. Have gone with
highs in the low to mid 90s, which coupled with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, will push heat index values on either side of 100
degrees.
The trough and associated surface front will slowly push through the
region Thursday night into Friday night. Mid-level flow will be
sufficient to support some strong/severe storms, but the potential
for storms Thursday night may hinder destabilization on Friday given
the expected cloud cover. If we are able to see some sun break out
on Friday, then a few strong/severe storms will be possible. Again,
predictability in the mesoscale details at this timeframe are rather
low, but the strength of the system pushing through does support the
potential for some strong/severe storm development, especially
across southern KY on Friday. Given the slow movement of the front
through the area, we could also have some local flooding issues as
well, so that will be something to continue to monitor.
The passing cold front and building trough aloft will make for
rather pleasant conditions moving in by the weekend. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs on Saturday and
Sunday. Conditions should be generally dry Saturday night through
Sunday, as the deeper moisture finally gets shunted to the east with
the passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 106 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the night with
winds out of the SW and cirrus streaming across the region. For
today the atmosphere will become unstable with the daytime heating
and a cold front will approach from the north. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop either along this front or residual
outflow boundaries or both. Will continue the mention of
thunderstorms through the afternoon hours in all TAF sites. Winds
will shift a bit more to the west this morning with sustained winds
in the 10-14 knot range through the day.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
455 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND TRENDS IN
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS FIERCE AS
IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY ANCHORED TO
UPEPR FORCING...WHICH IS TRENDING EASTWARD...HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE VORTS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE LINE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
TO TREND TOWARD I-80 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EVEN WHILE
THE BULK OF THE FORCING TRANSLATES TO THE EAST GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHING DOES SEEM POISED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING PER MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNWARD MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER
RATHER QUICKLY ON TODAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
INSISTENT ON THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO
NOT FAVOR THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IN ANY FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NW PA BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS FOR FKL AND DUJ. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LLWS...AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIP
AND HOW MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...SO MAINTAINED A GENERAL VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN MOST
OF THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD SEEM THE CONVECTION THAT IS
ONGOING SHOULD START TO FOLLOW THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A RESULT...THE
CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ITS TREND OF
TRACKING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL LEAVE IT LARGELY NORTH OF I-80.
THIS MEANS ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA WILL BE OUR PROBLEM CHILD. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN EARLIER THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP A BIT MORE
THAN IT HAS...HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE LAST EVENING...RESULTING
IN MEDIOCRE ONGOING ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK CONVECTION DOES PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER DECOUPLING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
OUR AREA...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CHANGE OF AIR MASS THAT IS READILY
APPARENT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY
TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER RATHER QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS
FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO NOT FAVOR THE
FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN ANY
FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS
WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NW PA BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS FOR FKL AND DUJ. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LLWS...AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIP
AND HOW MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...SO MAINTAINED A GENERAL VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN MOST
OF THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD SEEM THE CONVECTION THAT IS
ONGOING SHOULD START TO FOLLOW THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A RESULT...THE
CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ITS TREND OF
TRACKING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL LEAVE IT LARGELY NORTH OF I-80.
THIS MEANS ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA WILL BE OUR PROBLEM CHILD. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN EARLIER THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP A BIT MORE
THAN IT HAS...HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE LAST EVENING...RESULTING
IN MEDIOCRE ONGOING ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK CONVECTION DOES PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER DECOUPLING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
OUR AREA...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CHANGE OF AIR MASS THAT IS READILY
APPARENT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY
TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER RATHER QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS
FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO NOT FAVOR THE
FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN ANY
FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS
WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON IT`S HEELS FOR WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE NW FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
WEAK TROUGHING/NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR THURSDAY. ALL
THE MODELS...TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER...HAVE THIS WAVE APPROACHING
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF THE WARM...MOIST...AIRMASS TO SUPPORT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. STRENGTHENING LOW AND
MID LEVEL JETS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SHEAR AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...IF THE STRONGER GFS IS CORRECT. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...DID NOT FEEL THE NEED TO STRAY MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL CHANGES FROM
RUN TO RUN.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
MERIDIONAL AS A STOUT RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND A LARGE TROF DEEPENS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...ALMOST-DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD JUST BELOW AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NW PA BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS FOR FKL AND DUJ. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LLWS...AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIP
AND HOW MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...SO MAINTAINED A GENERAL VCSH/VCTS MENTION IN MOST
OF THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SUPPORTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAST EVENING HAS NOW
LIFTED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA/DZ OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM THIS FEATURE HAS NOW ENDED
...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS PRESENTLY STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO
WNW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (NEAR 30 MPH) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR SOME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO BRING IN SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY...DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING STRATUS THIS
MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHILE WNW WINDS DIMINISH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
STAYS NORTH OF UPPER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NW UPPER
MI AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE DAY WED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CAPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT OR BELOW 500J/KG...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF
SOME PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ON WED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP THAT FARTHER SW...SO THE BEST POPS ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WI BORDER.
A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO MON...WITH
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY JULY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEST WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNW 35 KNOT GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. THE
RESIDUAL MCV GENERATED FROM THE LARGE MCS EARLIER TODAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR NW LOWER MI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SHRA OVER NRN
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WERE MOVING IN.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHEST SB/MU CAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM NW WI THROUGH UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KT/25-35KT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. EVEN WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CAPE RECOVERY...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES WITH THE PRES RISE
MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NW
WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE DAY WED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CAPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT OR BELOW 500J/KG...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF
SOME PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ON WED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP THAT FARTHER SW...SO THE BEST POPS ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WI BORDER.
A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO MON...WITH
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY JULY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEST WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WIL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. THE
RESIDUAL MCV GENERATED FROM THE LARGE MCS EARLIER TODAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR NW LOWER MI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SHRA OVER NRN
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WERE MOVING IN.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHEST SB/MU CAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM NW WI THROUGH UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KT/25-35KT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. EVEN WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CAPE RECOVERY...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES WITH THE PRES RISE
MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NW
WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY. THAT WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHIFTING BACK TO THIS WEEK...THE FIRST WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT
IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THE BEST FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. DID BRUSH THE
KEWEENAW WITH THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A DECENT NUMBER OF
MODELS SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE REST
OF THE AREA TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE TROUGH BEING
OVER THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/FORCING AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREAS AND INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE
FROM CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY WESTWARD TOWARDS ONTONAGON COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER VALUES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG (BEST INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND TIED TO THE STRONG STORMS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAIRLY STRONG (APPROACHING 50KTS)...BUT
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...THAT IS ALL TIED TO THE STRONG JET
BETWEEN 5-6KM. THUS...THINK THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20KTS
ARE MORE REASONABLE AND BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
WHILE THAT FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAILING IT THAT
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER (ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC). THOSE WAVES WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
JULY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
WEST WIND. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WIL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
251 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
AS OF 0830Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXISTS
FROM NEAR HARDIN TO CARTER COUNTY. THIS A RESULT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LATEST PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES NEAR AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FROM LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS...THUS EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
END OVER OUR SOUTHEAST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE. LOOKING TO THE
WEST...THERE IS AN AREA OF PV MOVING FROM OR TO CENTRAL ID. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE ASCENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP BEFORE NOON ACROSS OUR WEST PER
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER CAPES OF 1200+ J/KG AND UP TO 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HRRR/RAP SHOW A SURGE OF DRIER MIXED WEST
WINDS PUSHING THRU MLS-4BQ. THIS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER...
AND THIS MAY BE REASONABLE GIVEN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MT AS EARLY AS 18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH LINE
TONIGHT. WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET PLUS FORCING FROM THIS ENERGY WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EAST. COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS...ONE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ALREADY MENTIONED AND A SECOND IN
THE EVENING PER THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PWATS AND
DEEPER INSTABILITY AND IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES TO -5C
IN SOUTHEAST MT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND FEEL THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR EAST.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR WESTERN
AREAS WITH CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL TURN WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER IDAHO BEGINS TO INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY BRINGING A MORE STABLE PATTERN. STILL
HINTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE MONTANA DAKOTA
BORDER SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND A DOMINANT RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AND LATEST RUNS SHIFT IT A BIT
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND BRING SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS 95 TO
100 POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OF KMLS WILL MOVE INTO
THE DAKOTAS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING TO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/082 060/086 059/090 062/093 063/095 063/097
2/T 32/T 21/E 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U
LVM 084 049/084 053/086 052/091 054/095 056/096 056/097
3/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 087 056/086 059/087 059/091 061/094 062/096 062/097
2/T 32/T 22/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 085 059/083 060/084 059/087 061/090 061/092 063/093
2/T 44/T 32/T 32/T 10/U 01/U 11/U
4BQ 083 057/083 059/082 058/085 059/089 059/092 061/092
2/T 44/T 33/T 31/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 080 057/080 058/081 057/082 058/086 058/088 060/087
3/T 54/T 33/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 082 053/081 055/081 054/084 055/088 055/090 057/091
2/T 32/T 33/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
322 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES. THUS... CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY
RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS
OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES. THUS... CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
COMING SHORTLY
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY
RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS
OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM MONDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY 925-850 MB DEWPOINTS ~14C (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND AS ONE MIGHT INFER GIVEN WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NO SIGNIFICANT CAP) AND A LACK OF DIURNAL CU. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GREATER
THAN IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL NC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AN MCV WAS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST KY AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ESE
INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY ~00Z...SOUTHEASTWARD TO BOONE NC BY ~03Z...
SSE/SOUTHWARD TO MORGANTON BY ~06Z AND CHARLOTTE BY ~09Z. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST NC
AFTER 00Z...WITH PROPAGATION INTO THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
~03Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE 12Z CAMS SUPPORT SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND A
DRIER/LESS SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...ASSUMING NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE INTO THE TRIAD...DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS
AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION
(AT BEST). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 325-326 DM OVER THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AOA 1440 METERS OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...AT LEAST NOT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...
WHERE AOA 70 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON; AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT...LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED ONE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED...FORCING
AT THIS LATITUDE WILL NEED TO COME FROM OUTFLOW AND/OR AN MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...NEITHER OF WHICH CAN BE FORECAST WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. POP WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 748 PM MONDAY...
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... AND IN THE VICINITY
OF KFAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE (~20 PERCENT) UNTIL A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH INTO VA-NC ON WED AND SUPPORTS A BETTER CHANCE (30-50
PERCENT) AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...30/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM MONDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY 925-850 MB DEWPOINTS ~14C (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND AS ONE MIGHT INFER GIVEN WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NO SIGNIFICANT CAP) AND A LACK OF DIURNAL CU. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GREATER
THAN IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL NC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AN MCV WAS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST KY AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ESE
INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY ~00Z...SOUTHEASTWARD TO BOONE NC BY ~03Z...
SSE/SOUTHWARD TO MORGANTON BY ~06Z AND CHARLOTTE BY ~09Z. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST NC
AFTER 00Z...WITH PROPAGATION INTO THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
~03Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE 12Z CAMS SUPPORT SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND A
DRIER/LESS SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...ASSUMING NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE INTO THE TRIAD...DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS
AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION
(AT BEST). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 325-326 DM OVER THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AOA 1440 METERS OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...AT LEAST NOT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...
WHERE AOA 70 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON; AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT...LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED ONE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED...FORCING
AT THIS LATITUDE WILL NEED TO COME FROM OUTFLOW AND/OR AN MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...NEITHER OF WHICH CAN BE FORECAST WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. POP WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NE CANADA. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH... STALLING OUT AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER BY LATE WED
AFT/EVE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTH TO
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A LOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A
S/W OR TWO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK... PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE
IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID 90S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE INDICATION IN THE MODELS OF
A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... DECREASING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD: THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY
RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS
OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/22 100 1981
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
GSO RECORDS
06/22 100 1914
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/22 101 1990
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
IN SPACE WEATHER NEWS... A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AURORA BOREALLIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND
00 UTC NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...AS A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE POTENTIAL STRONG NORTHERN LIGHTS SHOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD COVERING MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERTICAL EXTENT APPEARS LIMITED
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 6000FT. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH AND HENCE LIMIT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MINIMAL TO NIL. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL WANE NEAR SUNSET WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TUESDAY...REACHING NORTHWEST MONTANA/SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE INCREASES TO 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AT 50KT TO 60KT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMER...BETWEEN 77F AND 82F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE CURRENT SUITE OF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER DAYS 1-3 HAS ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE
STATE...AS A RESULT OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATED TO REMOVE TH HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE HEAT IS IN
STORE FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND HAZE HAS PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING AS HIGH AS THEY COULD HAVE. FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT
JOB WITH COMPLEX. TO THE WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS BUILDING. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 105 AT
JONESBORO AND WEST MEMPHIS.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WILL PUSH EAST
AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THEN START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID PERIOD. THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS
DELTA INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
TEMPS MAY HIT THE UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S IN SOME PLACES SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS AFTER
23/15Z THEN DECREASE TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 24/01Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND RIO GRANDE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS JUST MOVING INTO DRT. HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 TERMINALS TO 07Z.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO IFR BY 09Z FOR ALL TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 18Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE MOIST CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE AND DAY TIME HEATING. HAVE
COVERED THIS WITH VCSH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE I-35
TERMINALS. CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER AT DRT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS SO VCSH IS IN THE TAF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
AVIATION...
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER MEXICO AND HAVE
VCSH FOR KDRT THROUGH THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VCSH MENTIONED AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF ONLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE BEST FORCING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR
CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AS BR AND
IFR/MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CIGS RISE AS BR DISSIPATES
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO
11 KTS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUTFLOWS
FROM SHRA/TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THERE IS NOT MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE REST
OF THE CWA REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY MUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HRRR IS STILL FORECASTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE 30 POPS THIS EVENING
CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER LIFT IN THIS PART
OF THE CWA.
FOR TOMORROW...THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MIX OUT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY...BUT OUR
WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE A NON-PLAYER WEATHER WISE. THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REMAIN OPENED UP WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
SHIFTING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THERE WILL BE A
BOUNDARY PRESENT AND DECENT MOISTURE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS BECAUSE OF MANY UNKNOWNS ON THE MESOSCALE BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 73 90 74 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 72 90 73 89 / 20 10 20 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 74 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 88 73 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 75 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 74 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 88 74 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 74 89 / 20 10 20 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 89 75 89 / 20 10 30 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 88 75 89 / 20 10 20 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 89 75 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 918 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING
TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. AN OUTFLOW AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARY AND SOLAR
HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.THE LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100
ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A REIDSVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO
BUCKINGHAM VIRGINIA LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION FOR
THE CURRENT RECORDS.
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
DECREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND BLENDED TOWARDS THE RNK WRFARW AND HRRR FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LATEST OBS AND CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO NORTH OF I-64. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE
PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DISSIPATED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT...THE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION OR
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 10PM-11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...CLOUDS WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TROUGH ROUGHLY 2-3AM TUESDAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...SO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA
IS POSSIBLE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE. READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY...THE FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST....OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...WITH THE
BEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS MAY
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 20 C IN THE WEST AND 24 C
IN THE EAST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT
INDICES WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 100 TO 102 RANGE ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A REIDSVILLE NC TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT REMAINS LINED UP FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION REMAIN CLOSE TO 590DM WITH A PIECE OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENT...SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EACH DAY AT THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NCEP FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
THURSDAY. SO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1247 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE PREFERRED RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. ALSO...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTED
A RESURGENCE OF MVFR LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. COULD SEE A MVFR CIG ALONG AND NEAR A KBLF-KLWB LINE.
ON TUESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
MID MORNING. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB AREA OR PARTS WEST AROUND
19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE
AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY
SEE A LINE OF STORMS CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT
INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF
CONVECTION AN HOUR OR TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OF AREAS
OF FOG TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WAS OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS CROSSING NORTHERN MN WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE THAT FORMED FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WAS OVER LOWER
MI. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAS HELPED
TO PREVENT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FROM FIRING. RAP DEPICTING
ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 200 J/KG OF MLCIN. THIS WAS DESPITE A
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENT TROUGH. THAT FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA. MUCH DRIER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2 INCH RANGE OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL MN.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL...ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE COLD
FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER MN WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUE. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGHS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 00Z...TAKING ANY
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH IT...WHICH ARE MINIMAL DUE TO ALL OF THE
MLCIN...LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING IN THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET CORE TRACKING INTO NORTHERN WI. MAY STILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS...BUT THAT TOO
SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN. ALL OF
TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME MID CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN OUR TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AS A RESULT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING THERE AND RECENT RAIN...BUT
ENOUGH WIND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PREVENT FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S PER GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. 925MB TEMPS OF
16-18C ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW
80S POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH BECOMES EVEN MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANAMOUSLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS...A COUPLE OF TIME PERIODS OF
CONCERN...
1. WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
LOOKS TO TRACK INTO ILLINOIS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PULL THE
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH STALLS NEAR I-70 ON TUESDAY...BACK
NORTHWARD. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST
SOUTH...HOLDING IT OVER NORTHERN MO...WHILE THE GFS...NAM AND
CANADIAN PULL IT AT LEAST TO I-80. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ISENTROPICALLY AND FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE...MAY
TRY TO MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS FROM THE PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WHICH ISNT
GOOD FOR LIFTING IT NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHEAST
IOWA CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
2. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ARE PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THEY PRODUCE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THAT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ON WEDNESDAY. LIKE THE MODEL SPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE NAM
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH. THE LATTER 3
MODELS PRODUCE MUCH MORE CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION FOR US WHILE
THE ECMWF IS NEARLY DRY WITH ITS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN BIAS OVERALL THIS YEAR TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HOLDING UP THE FRONT...FEEL A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE MOST PART ARE IN THE 20-50 RANGE. HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT
ANY SEVERE CHANCES GIVEN THIS SPREAD IN CONVECTION LOCATION AS
WELL.
3. BEYOND THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DRIVING
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PROBLEM IS THE
MOISTURE AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER THE SHORTWAVES PASS ON
THURSDAY GETS SHUNTED DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. NEW 22.12Z ECMWF
REALLY HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AND DEPICTS MONDAY AS THE
ONLY TIME PERIOD OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN BOTH WANT TO KEEP THE AREA GETTING HIT BY
SPORADIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SHORTWAVES. IT APPEARS THESE MODELS
MAY BE PRODUCING TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO BOOST UP BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO GIVE SOME DRY PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH TUE. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT WITH SKC/SCT SKIES. WINDS WILL STAY WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT-
TUE...BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TUE EVENING.
FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP LIGHT WIND FIELD
COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINS SETS UP PRETTY WELL
FOR AREAS OF FOG...NOT JUST A FAVORABLE VALLEY FOG SCENARIO FOR
KLSE. SOME CLOUDS COULD FILTER IN FROM THE WEST...LIMITING THE FOG.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB 1SM BR/FG.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE STORMS FROM THIS MORNING HIT MUCH OF THE UPPER IOWA RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CEDAR RIVER BASIN PRETTY HARD.
COMBINATION OF RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TURKEY AND SOUTHERN END OF THE
KICKAPOO ALSO GOT HIT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. AS A
RESULT...THESE RIVERS ARE RISING WITH SOME FLOOD WARNINGS OUT.
SINCE THEY ARE QUICK RESPONDING...MOST SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1034 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030AM UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA...#342...IN AFFECT 700PM. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
900AM UPDATE...THE WEAKENING MCS IS ENTERING THE POCONOS AT THIS
TIME. LIGHTNING IS ON THE DECREASE AS IS THE SEVER THREAT.
COVERING WITH AN SPS FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER, MID-MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALSO
TWEAKED THE SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS UP NORTH.
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVEN`T CHANGED....HEAT AND
THREAT OF SEVERE. THE COASTAL PLAIN, SOUTH OF THE MCS-INDUCED
CLOUDS, IS ALREADY RIPE WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG AND SB
LI IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE.
A QUESTION WE HAVE IS, WILL THESE INCOMING CLOUDS (OVERCAST) HAVE
AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION? CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE MAJORITY MOVES THROUGH. SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
WITH GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH,
MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTH, WE LEFT TEMPS AS IS. HEAT INDICES LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 105
ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
630AM UPDATE...AN MCS ACROSS WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO MAKE FAST
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING THIS ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA AS EARLY AS 15Z (BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER, BUT EXPECT FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW AS DIURNAL MIXING AND
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOP). THIS MCS
IS NOT ON THE FRONT, RATHER CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT, BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS AND ARRIVES IN OUR CWA BY MID DAY, THIS
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS BROAD ENOUGH TO COVER EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS) TODAY. IN FACT THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS ALMOST 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AT CLEARING THE FRONT OFF
THE SHORE BY 00Z. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
HAS BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE
00Z RAOBS INDICATE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE FIRST THREAT OF THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT, PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO TRENTON. FOR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA,
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AS IT APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL
SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30
KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT BELOW THE MOS POP VALUES OVER NIGHT AS I THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDD FCST STARTS OFF DRY AND PLEASANT AND THEN HAS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN IT AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WED AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND NWLY FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WED NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT DRY
WX, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ON THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EWD AND BY
LATER THU WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS EVEN A
BIT SLOWER, WITH NOTHING BEFORE 26/00Z. THE GUID IS SUGGESTING
ATTM THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WOULD BE S.
THEN, AFTER THIS LOW MOVES BY, WE SHUD GET AT LEAST A PARTIAL
BREAK ON FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS.
AFTER FRI, CONFIDENCE DROPS TREMENDOUSLY.
A MAJOR PATN SHIFT IS ALSO IN THE WORKS WHICH ALSO HELPS EXPLAIN
THE DROP IN FCST CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO FROM ZONAL FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN IN FOR WEEKS TO A MAJOR RIDGE IN THE W AND ALMOST
UNSEASONABLE TROF IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GUID AGREES THAT LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VLY EWD.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND MOST OF THE MDLS ARE FURTHER N WITH THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND KEEP FRI NIGHT THRU ERLY SUN IN DECENT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN AREAS, MUCH OF THIS PD WOULD BE DRY.
THE CMC HAS DIFFERENT TIMING. SLOWER TO MOVE THE PRECIP IN ON SAT.
LINGERS IT LONGER ON SUN.... SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS.
IT STILL SEEMS THAT PRECIP CHCS ARE BETTER SAT THAN SUN AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW PRES DEPARTING THE AREA ON SUN.
SMALL PRECIP CHCS REMAIN ON MON, BUT IT CUD END UP BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END UP MUCH BELOW NRML OVER THE
WEEKEND AS E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL TSRA. FIRST, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN PA, COULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY MID DAY.
SECOND, STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN (ONE MODEL, THE NAM, IS AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS). HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH TIMING
SHOWN FOR THE GFS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, COULD SEE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WIND GUSTS TO
35KT WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR,
AND WILL ALSO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WED ...VFR. HIGH PRES. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THU AND FRI...VFR CONDS ERLY THU THEN LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MVFR AND IFR PSBL IF NOT LIKELY IN
SHRA AND FG. GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG. SLY WIND SHIFT TO NE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SAT...E-NE GUSTS 20 KT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYS CUD IMPACT THE
REGION OR REMAIN S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SHRA/FG FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25KT WILL BUILD BY MID DAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FT IN RESPONSE. THUS SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
MID DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BAY, AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS (WHERE SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THRU FRI...LTST FCST HAS WIND AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SCA LIKELY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
ON E TO NE FETCH. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE. IN HOUSE PROCEDURE WAS A MODERATE,
WHILE GRIDDED CALCULATION WAS LOW. GIVEN THE WIND SCENARIO, THE
MORNING MAY START WITH LOW RISKS EVERYWHERE AND THEN INCREASE TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA HEAT WAVE CULMINATES WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY JUNE 23 RECORDS: IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL
VALUES LISTED BELOW, BUT COULD BE ESPECIALLY CLOSE AT KGED AND
POSSIBLY OTHERS.
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-
104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900AM UPDATE...THE WEAKENING MCS IS ENTERING THE POCONOS AT THIS
TIME. LIGHTNING IS ON THE DECREASE AS IS THE SEVER THREAT.
COVERING WITH AN SPS FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER, MID-MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALSO
TWEAKED THE SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS UP NORTH.
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVEN`T CHANGED....HEAT AND
THREAT OF SEVERE. THE COASTAL PLAIN, SOUTH OF THE MCS-INDUCED
CLOUDS, IS ALREADY RIPE WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG AND SB
LI IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE.
A QUESTION WE HAVE IS, WILL THESE INCOMING CLOUDS (OVERCAST) HAVE
AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION? CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE MAJORITY MOVES THROUGH. SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
WITH GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH,
MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTH, WE LEFT TEMPS AS IS. HEAT INDICIES LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 105
ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
630AM UPDATE...AN MCS ACROSS WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO MAKE FAST
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING THIS ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA AS EARLY AS 15Z (BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER, BUT EXPECT FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW AS DIURNAL MIXING AND
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOP). THIS MCS
IS NOT ON THE FRONT, RATHER CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT, BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS AND ARRIVES IN OUR CWA BY MID DAY, THIS
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS BROAD ENOUGH TO COVER EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS) TODAY. IN FACT THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS ALMOST 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AT CLEARING THE FRONT OFF
THE SHORE BY 00Z. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
HAS BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE
00Z RAOBS INDICATE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE FIRST THREAT OF THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT, PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO TRENTON. FOR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA,
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AS IT APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL
SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30
KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT BELOW THE MOS POP VALUES OVER NIGHT AS I THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDD FCST STARTS OFF DRY AND PLEASANT AND THEN HAS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN IT AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WED AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND NWLY FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WED NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT DRY
WX, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ON THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EWD AND BY
LATER THU WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS EVEN A
BIT SLOWER, WITH NOTHING BEFORE 26/00Z. THE GUID IS SUGGESTING
ATTM THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WOULD BE S.
THEN, AFTER THIS LOW MOVES BY, WE SHUD GET AT LEAST A PARTIAL
BREAK ON FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS.
AFTER FRI, CONFIDENCE DROPS TREMENDOUSLY.
A MAJOR PATN SHIFT IS ALSO IN THE WORKS WHICH ALSO HELPS EXPLAIN
THE DROP IN FCST CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO FROM ZONAL FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN IN FOR WEEKS TO A MAJOR RIDGE IN THE W AND ALMOST
UNSEASONABLE TROF IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GUID AGREES THAT LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VLY EWD.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND MOST OF THE MDLS ARE FURTHER N WITH THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND KEEP FRI NIGHT THRU ERLY SUN IN DECENT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN AREAS, MUCH OF THIS PD WOULD BE DRY.
THE CMC HAS DIFFERENT TIMING. SLOWER TO MOVE THE PRECIP IN ON SAT.
LINGERS IT LONGER ON SUN.... SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS.
IT STILL SEEMS THAT PRECIP CHCS ARE BETTER SAT THAN SUN AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW PRES DEPARTING THE AREA ON SUN.
SMALL PRECIP CHCS REMAIN ON MON, BUT IT CUD END UP BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END UP MUCH BELOW NRML OVER THE
WEEKEND AS E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL TSRA. FIRST, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN PA, COULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY MID DAY.
SECOND, STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN (ONE MODEL, THE NAM, IS AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS). HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH TIMING
SHOWN FOR THE GFS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, COULD SEE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WIND GUSTS TO
35KT WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR,
AND WILL ALSO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WED ...VFR. HIGH PRES. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THU AND FRI...VFR CONDS ERLY THU THEN LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MVFR AND IFR PSBL IF NOT LIKELY IN
SHRA AND FG. GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG. SLY WIND SHIFT TO NE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SAT...E-NE GUSTS 20 KT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYS CUD IMPACT THE
REGION OR REMAIN S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SHRA/FG FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25KT WILL BUILD BY MID DAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FT IN RESPONSE. THUS SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
MID DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BAY, AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS (WHERE SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THRU FRI...LTST FCST HAS WIND AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SCA LIKELY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
ON E TO NE FETCH. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE. IN HOUSE PROCEDURE WAS A MODERATE,
WHILE GRIDDED CALCULATION WAS LOW. GIVEN THE WIND SCENARIO, THE
MORNING MAY START WITH LOW RISKS EVERYWHERE AND THEN INCREASE TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA HEAT WAVE CULMINATES WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY JUNE 23 RECORDS: IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL
VALUES LISTED BELOW, BUT COULD BE ESPECIALLY CLOSE AT KGED AND
POSSIBLY OTHERS.
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-
104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
635 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630AM UPDATE...AN MCS ACROSS WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO MAKE FAST
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS NOW SHOWING THIS ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA AS EARLY AS 15Z (BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER, BUT EXPECT FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW AS DIURNAL MIXING AND
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOP). THIS MCS
IS NOT ON THE FRONT, RATHER CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT, BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS AND ARRIVES IN OUR CWA BY MID DAY, THIS
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
HAVE POPS BROAD ENOUGH TO COVER EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT (AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS) TODAY. IN FACT THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS ALMOST 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AT CLEARING THE FRONT OFF
THE SHORE BY 00Z. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION)
HAS BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE
00Z RAOBS INDICATE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE FIRST THREAT OF THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT, PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO TRENTON. FOR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA,
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE, BUT HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AS IT APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE MIXING EARLY IN THE DAY.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL
SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30
KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS,
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT BELOW THE MOS POP VALUES OVER NIGHT AS I THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDD FCST STARTS OFF DRY AND PLEASANT AND THEN HAS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN IT AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WED AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND NWLY FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT
LATE TUE.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WED NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT DRY
WX, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ON THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EWD AND BY
LATER THU WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS EVEN A
BIT SLOWER, WITH NOTHING BEFORE 26/00Z. THE GUID IS SUGGESTING
ATTM THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WOULD BE S.
THEN, AFTER THIS LOW MOVES BY, WE SHUD GET AT LEAST A PARTIAL
BREAK ON FRI, ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS.
AFTER FRI, CONFIDENCE DROPS TREMENDOUSLY.
A MAJOR PATN SHIFT IS ALSO IN THE WORKS WHICH ALSO HELPS EXPLAIN
THE DROP IN FCST CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO FROM ZONAL FLOW WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN IN FOR WEEKS TO A MAJOR RIDGE IN THE W AND ALMOST
UNSEASONABLE TROF IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GUID AGREES THAT LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VLY EWD.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND MOST OF THE MDLS ARE FURTHER N WITH THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND KEEP FRI NIGHT THRU ERLY SUN IN DECENT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN AREAS, MUCH OF THIS PD WOULD BE DRY.
THE CMC HAS DIFFERENT TIMING. SLOWER TO MOVE THE PRECIP IN ON SAT.
LINGERS IT LONGER ON SUN.... SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS.
IT STILL SEEMS THAT PRECIP CHCS ARE BETTER SAT THAN SUN AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW PRES DEPARTING THE AREA ON SUN.
SMALL PRECIP CHCS REMAIN ON MON, BUT IT CUD END UP BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END UP MUCH BELOW NRML OVER THE
WEEKEND AS E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF TAF SITES LATER TODAY. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF POTENTIAL TSRA. FIRST, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN PA, COULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY MID DAY.
SECOND, STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN (ONE MODEL, THE NAM, IS AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS). HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH TIMING
SHOWN FOR THE GFS GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, COULD SEE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW WIND GUSTS TO
35KT WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR,
AND WILL ALSO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WED ...VFR. HIGH PRES. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THU AND FRI...VFR CONDS ERLY THU THEN LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MVFR AND IFR PSBL IF NOT LIKELY IN
SHRA AND FG. GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG. SLY WIND SHIFT TO NE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SAT...E-NE GUSTS 20 KT. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYS CUD IMPACT THE
REGION OR REMAIN S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE COULD BE
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SHRA/FG FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25KT WILL BUILD BY MID DAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING NEAR 5 FT IN RESPONSE. THUS SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
MID DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BAY, AND EARLY EVENING ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS (WHERE SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THRU FRI...LTST FCST HAS WIND AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SCA LIKELY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
ON E TO NE FETCH. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE. IN HOUSE PROCEDURE WAS A MODERATE,
WHILE GRIDDED CALCULATION WAS LOW. GIVEN THE WIND SCENARIO, THE
MORNING MAY START WITH LOW RISKS EVERYWHERE AND THEN INCREASE TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA HEAT WAVE CULMINATES WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY JUNE 23 RECORDS: IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL
VALUES LISTED BELOW, BUT COULD BE ESPECIALLY CLOSE AT KGED AND
POSSIBLY OTHERS.
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1116 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...MAKING A SUBSTANTIAL UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SE GA. FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR TREND WITH
DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA...
AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS NE FL WHERE FULL HEATING OCCURRING.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE FROM COASTAL SE GA
TO SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL FORECAST TO DRIFT SE. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SEA BREEZES SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH BETTER LATE AFTERNOON COVERAGE
I-10 SOUTHWARD. KJAX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING DECENT SW
FLOW IN LOWEST GATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVEMENT TO JUST E OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR IN SE
GA...WHEN IT COMES TO HIGH TEMP FORECAST. LOWERED HIGH TEMP
FORECAST TO LOW 90S FOR NOW...WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF HEATING TO REACH THAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 75 97 75 / 70 40 40 30
SSI 92 79 91 78 / 30 30 30 20
JAX 96 75 95 76 / 50 50 40 20
SGJ 92 76 90 76 / 40 40 30 20
GNV 96 74 94 74 / 60 60 50 20
OCF 95 74 94 75 / 60 60 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF//
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS EXPANDED/LIFTED NWD SOME COMPARED
TO YDAY`S POSN NEAR VRB-ZPH...AND NOW LIES NEAR MLB-BKV...WITH A BIT
LESS CURVATURE ABOUT ITS AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVHD WITH A NARROW COL STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR A TPA-SAV-CHS
LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING
UPPER DEBRIS CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NNE-NE STARTING TO THIN
ATTM. CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SHOWS UP IN THE 12Z XMR RAOB...NEARLY
2.0" MEAN PWAT COMPARED TO THE PRONOUNCED DRYING WHICH OCCURRED BTWN
12Z MON AND 00Z TUE (1.8" --> 1.4").
WITH THE LCL AIR MASS MUCH MORE MOIST THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...IT
FOLLOWS THAT LCL SEA BREEZE BDRYS SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
IN AND OF THEMSELVES...RATHER THAN NEEDING A COLLISION TO GENERATE
ANY CONVECTION OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH. INDEED THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOW THIS TAKING PLACE...CONSEQUENTLY POPS ALONG THE COAST
ARE 30-40 RATHER THAN 20...WITH 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
INTERIOR. THERE WAS SOME EARLIER CONCERN THAT DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD
INHIBIT SFC HEATING BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO
A SMALL DEGREE EARLY ON BUT WITH CLOUDS THINNING...DON`T THINK THIS
WILL WIND UP BEING THAT MUCH OF A FACTOR.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER...FCST WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION...BEST CHC FOR TS AT COASTAL AERODROMES WILL BE 16Z-20Z
WITH ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE INLAND SITES MAINLY FROM 21Z-02Z OR SO.
A LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR IMC/WIND GUSTS 30KT+ ESPECIALLY INLAND...GIVEN
EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...ANOTHER DAY HAS DAWNED AND 3FT SEAS HAVE YET TO SHOW UP...
YET AGAIN. THIS REMAINS A BIT OF A QUIBBLE SINCE BOATING CONDS ARE
QUITE BENIGN...BUT I CAN`T REMEMBER BOTH THE WNAWAVE/NWPS HAVING A
1-2FT HIGH BIAS FOR SO MANY CYCLES IN A ROW IN SOME TIME. WHILE WE
MAY SEE 3FT SEAS LEAK INTO THE OUTER WATERS PLAN TO ONCE AGAIN PARE
BACK SEAS TO 1-2FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 2FT OFFSHORE...UNTIL SEAS
SHOW A SIGN OF NUDGING AT LEAST 2.5FT AT 41009/41010.
&&
FORECAST/UPDATE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015/
...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WED-WED NIGHT...
ZONAL H30-H20 JET OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PUSH A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING
TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE H100-H70 ATLC
RIDGE OVER GA/FL. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO WITH
ITS WRN PORTION BCMG AN INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHILE ITS MAIN BODY RETREATS E OF THE BAHAMA BANK.
THE RESULTING COL WILL COLLAPSE THE DEEP LYR FLOW OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AT BEST. MODERATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WILL COME
FROM A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SWD WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE OVER
N FL WILL PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL EVACUATION...BUT ALSO WILL ALLOW SIG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RECOVERING TO
ARND 2.0"...MUCH OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR.
STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PULSE CONVECTION. H70/H50 RUNNING
8C/-8C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATE OF 6.0-6.5C/KM
THRU THE LYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
THRU THE H85-H50 LYRS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY HAMPER SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT...AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FROM
MAKING RAPID INLAND PROGRESS. GFS MOS POPS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THESE INHIBITORS...BUT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE L/M90S AS THE
STATIC AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL HEAT UP QUITE EFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS
IN THE L/M70S...NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE DEWPOINTS.
THU-THU NIGHT...
TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD ITSELF
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER E/SERLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. FOCUS FOR DIURNAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE W FL PENINSULA WITH LOW PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL ALONG THE ERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. CONTINUED HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
FRI-MON...
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE NRN JET AS IT SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE ERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A HI AMP
MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE IN THE PROCESS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS RESPOND
BY DVLPG A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THAT
WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S ON FRI...THEN TO THE
SW ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHER DIURNAL POPS OVER THE E FL COAST.
HOWEVER...NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY GUNG-HO WITH POPS AS BOTH
INDICATE LOW RH AIR OVER THE WRN CARIB WORKING ITS WAY NWD AND BCMG
ENTRAINED IN THE DVLPG SWRLY FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY AOB
50PCT WITH TEMPS RETURNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...MAXES U80SL90S
AND MINS L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM KSUA-KMLB...AND THEN SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING PAST
01Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.MARINE... SEAS REMAIN RATHER FLAT AT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT AT
BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. S/SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE SE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...THEN WINDS FROM THE SE/S
WILL BECOME SSW/SW TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE
AND PERHAPS UP TO 2-3 FT FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS MEANDERS BTWN THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WHILE A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...SEAS 2-3FT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS IN THE AFTN/EVNG AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.CLIMATE... DAYTONA BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
YESTERDAY SET BACK IN 2009. RECORD HIGHS TODAY LOOK OUT OF REACH:
RECORDS HIGHS FOR TODAY/JUNE 23RD...
DAYTONA BEACH 100 IN 1944
ORLANDO 99 IN 1939
MELBOURNE 96 IN 1998
VERO BEACH 94 IN 2009
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS TODAY WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
DAYTONA BEACH 77 IN 1972
VERO BEACH 79 IN 2010
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
755 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE
SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID AFTERNOON WHILE
THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE SLOWER.
A LEE TROUGH WILL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PIEDMONT.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50
TO 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST INCREASING TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT EAST.
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
OF 45-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC
BORDER WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 40 PERCENT THURSDAY. .
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DAILY TREK TOWARDS THE CENTURY
MARK EACH AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE GENERALLY
FROM 104 TO 108 EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL THEN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS SHOULD BE A
WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE JUST AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BETTER SOUTHWARD
PUSH TO ANY COLD FRONTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BE DIURNALLY INDUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
AREA REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT OGB AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS BETWEEN 20Z AND 24/01Z. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTED VFR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FROM TUE JUNE 23RD THROUGH THU JUNE 25TH
AUGUSTA...
JUN 23...104 IN 1944
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...104 IN 1914
COLUMBIA...
JUN 23...102 SET IN 1914 AND TIED IN 1956 AND 1988
JUN 24...103 IN 1914
JUN 25...103 IN 1952
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH IS INITIALIZING VERY WELL SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM OTHER HI RES MODELS...WENT
AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE THIS
DIDN/T CREATE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES...DO EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE TO BE CONTAINED ALONG AND THEN SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LED
TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH...REDUCING
THEM DOWN TO ISOLATED...BECOMING SCATTERED ONCE STORMS DROP BELOW
THE OHIO RIVER AREA. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER TENNESSEE...NOTHING ELSE HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
FAVOR OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AND APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM. IN FACT...IF
THE HI RES MODELS WORK OUT...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES
VERY LOW COVERAGE...SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO CHANGES TO
SEVERE THREATS AS DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL KEEP VCTS TO PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER TENNESSEE...NOTHING ELSE HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
FAVOR OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AND APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM. IN FACT...IF
THE HI RES MODELS WORK OUT...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES
VERY LOW COVERAGE...SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO CHANGES TO
SEVERE THREATS AS DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL KEEP VCTS TO PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CIGS OR VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE OUR TWO POTENTIAL HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...HEAT AND
SEVERE WEATHER...THE PICTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AT THIS MID
MORNING JUNCTURE. THE OVERNIGHT MODELS DID NOT RESOLVE THE EARLY
MORNING MCS AND OTHER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA VERY WELL...LEAVING
THE HRRR AND RAP AS THE TWO MODELS WHICH GIVE SOME SORT OF INSIGHT
INTO WHAT MIGHT UNFOLD.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WINDS. JUST BY MIXING THE BL OF THE
12Z KIAD RAOB INTO THE MID 90S PRODUCES SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STABLE LAYERS IN THE PROFILE (NOTABLY AROUND 400 MB) CAN
SOMETIMES INTERFERE WITH UPDRAFT STRENGTH. AM STILL LOOKING FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF TORNADO IF THE RIGHT
STORM-SCALE INTERACTION TAKES PLACE...BUT THIS RISK IS VERY LOW. AREAS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LESS STORM COVERAGE
DUE TO A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THE SOUTHERLY EXTEND
OF STORMS IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE REDUCED SHEAR AND
POSSIBLE DIURNAL DOWNTURN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTBY FOR
ALREADY-DEVELOPED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROSPER. THE BEST WINDOW
FOR STORM TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 9 PM. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STORMS WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...SO
THE ACTUAL TIME FRAME MAY BE A BIT QUICKER. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT HIGH PWAT/S AND LOW FFG (SOME POCKETS
OF LESS THAN ONE INCH) COULD PRODUCE LOCAL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS.
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY OR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. HOWEVER...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
COULD PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURE RISES (AND THE INSTBY NOTED
ABOVE)...BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER TOO.
WL HV NWLY FLOW DURING THE OVNGT HRS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO CWFA.
DEWPTS LWR-MID 60S. HV REFLECTED THIS IN MIN-T FCST...ALTHO HV HELD
ONTO A PINCH OF WARMTH CHO-DCA-DMH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
COMPARED TO TODAY...TUESDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE
EXPECTED. A CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
MAINLY NEAR ROANOKE. AT THIS TIME...ONLY AN ISO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN AUGUSTA/NELSON COUNTIES.
CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S TO 70S IN THE METROS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT RETREATS AS A WARM FRONT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY CAUSING MOISTURE TO
RETURN FROM SW TO NE. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE ABOUT 5 DEG FROM
THURSDAY MORNING TO THE EVENING. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE WARM FRONT WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS REGION MAY BE PRIME FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A THETA-E AXIS SETTING UP
ACROSS NC/VA WHICH WILL A PROVIDE ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...E-NE FLOW FROM THE NORTH MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT STABLE AIR
INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE
SEEMS TO BE VERY SATURATED THIS WEEKEND AND MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. WSWLY WINDS WL INCR DURING THE MIDDAY
HRS...W/ SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. A CDFNT WL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LT...MOST LKLY DURING THE EVNG. BUT TSRA WL LKLY DVLP AHD OF THE
FNT...IMPACTING THE AFTN PUSH. DID NOT TAKE FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN
TAFS DUE TO AREAL CVRG/TIMING CONSIDERATIONS...BUT BRIEF IFR WELL
W/IN REASON. VCTS RMK ADDED FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION. WL WORK TO
NARROW THAT WINDOW DOWN IN TAF CYCLES TO COME.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA SEEM TO BE
CONFINED OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAINING BLO SCA CRITERIA IN SSWLY FLOW ATTM...BUT ITS
ADMITTEDLY CLS. SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 AM.
AM STILL CARRYING SCA DURING THE MIDDAY-AFTN HRS AS PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT. MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS SHUD BE
ARND 20 KT...SO ITS A FAIRLY SOLID SCA. OVERLAPPING WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND...NMRS TSRA WL BE DVLPG LT DAY INTO THE EVNG HRS.
THESE STORMS WL FEED OFF OF THE HUMID AMS AND PRODUCE STRONG/LCLLY
DMGG GUSTS. MARINE WARNINGS /SMW/ WL LKLY BE ISSUED THIS PM.
THERE WL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF SUSTAINED WIND /OUTSIDE OF
TSRA/ IN THE LATE ENVG BEFORE NW FLOW KICKS IN.
A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...DO NOT BELIEVE THE DIRECTIONS WL
BE APPROPRIATE TO ADD MUCH TO THE DEPARTURE. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
SITE WL EVEN REACH CAUTION STAGE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
DCA...98 SET IN 1988 AND 1874
IAD...96 SET IN 1988 AND 1965
BWI...97 SET IN 2010 AND 1894
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ052>057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED...BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND FOCUS HIGH
POPS SOUTH OF THE U.S. 422 CORRIDOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SAVE FOR EASTERN OHIO. HIGH RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE POINTING TO A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE
OF STORMS TRAVERSING SOUTH OF I-76 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS ONLY
FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ATMOSPHERE ALREADY PRIMED FOR CONVECTION. LATEST 12Z
PIT RAOB INDICATES A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND O-6KM WINDS AROUND 40KTS. RAIN RATES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...SO DESPITE A LITTLE TRAINING OVER THE I-80
REGION...DO NOT SEE A HIGH WATER THREAT. ADDED GUSTY WIND
ATTRIBUTE TO WEATHER GRIDS AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
IN LATER UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER
RATHER QUICKLY ON TODAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
INSISTENT ON THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO
NOT FAVOR THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IN ANY FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUTSIDE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. ONGOING SHOWERS
WILL DEPART FKL AND DUJ BY 13-14Z LEAVING BKN MVFR OR VFR WEATHER
IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IR SATELLITE PICTURE ILLUSTRATES CLOUD TOPS
WARMING OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80/U.S. 422 MOVING SSE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY. BRIEF IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH IT BEING SUCH SHORT DURATION...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR IN THE TAF. IN FACT...MOSTLY
CARRIED VCTS UNTIL THINGS DEVELOP.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD OFFSET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES AT PITTSBURGH...THE
RECORD LOW HIGH FOR THIS DATE IS 76 SET WAY BACK IN 1888.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...98/FRIES
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...98
CLIMATE...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
750 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED...BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED NEAR TERM SCENARIO SEEMS SET TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLAY A ROLE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST...WHILE THE EVOLUTION OF SAID CONVECTION...ITS BLOW
OFF...AND DEBRIS...HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS UPON THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEROF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRING A WHOLESALE AIR MASS CHANGE
IN OUR REGION. LET`S TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AND BOY HAS THE CONVECTION REALLY GOTTEN ROLLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND TRENDS IN
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS FIERCE AS
IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY ANCHORED TO
UPPER FORCING...WHICH IS TRENDING EASTWARD...HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE VORTS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE LINE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
TO TREND TOWARD I-80 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EVEN WHILE
THE BULK OF THE FORCING TRANSLATES TO THE EAST GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHING DOES SEEM POISED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING PER MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AIR MASS...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS WOULD ENTIRELY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNWARD MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO IT WOULD SEEM ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FORCING...RAINFALL
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH MORNING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS REVEALS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LARGELY UNTIED TO
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LARGER SCALE MODELS SEEM TO TRY TO TIE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER
RATHER QUICKLY ON TODAY...HOWEVER THE FINER SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
INSISTENT ON THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND EVEN THE HRRR FAVORS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS REALLY DO
NOT FAVOR THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IN ANY FASHION...SO THE FORECAST STILL HEAVILY FAVORS
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SAID FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS WITH IT.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-50 KTS WITH SOME MODEST VEERING IS EVIDENT
ON NAM SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL PWATS
SURGE TOWARD AND ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
JUMPING TOWARD 2000 J/KG. THIS IS EVEN WITHOUT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID...SPC IS MAINTAINING THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED. THE
MAIN THREAT DOES SEEM LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
SPINNER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
THAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. IN MUST BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THAT "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"...THEY
HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY TODAY...AND STRONG MIXING
LIKELY...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE 80S...MAKING THOSE 2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES EASY TO ATTAIN...EVEN WITHOUT STRONG ISOLATION.
MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES GREATLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PWATS FALL
OFF A CLIFF AND LAYER RH VALUES DO LIKEWISE. POPS RAPIDLY WILL
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF AS WELL. THIS WILL YIELD A
SUBSTANTIALLY NICER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUP WE
HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO FINALLY DEPARTS FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF
INTERLUDE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANS TRANQUIL
WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE CORNBELT...WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
DAY BREAK THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME...AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING ON ENTRANCE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RE-INVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW. IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL QUELL THE
MORNING WARM-UP AND SERVE TO STABILIZE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD SOME SUN...AND THUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO DESTABILIZE. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE TO EXIST
THURSDAY EVENING...THIS IS WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE.
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS
THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV/MD.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS
IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED
TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING
OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT
APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL
DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUTSIDE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. ONGOING SHOWERS
WILL DEPART FKL AND DUJ BY 13-14Z LEAVING BKN MVFR OR VFR WEATHER
IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IR SATELLITE PICTURE ILLUSTRATES CLOUD TOPS
WARMING OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80/U.S. 422 MOVING SSE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY. BRIEF IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH IT BEING SUCH SHORT DURATION...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR IN THE TAF. IN FACT...MOSTLY
CARRIED VCTS UNTIL THINGS DEVELOP.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD OFFSET ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FRIES
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
958 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. SHORTWAVE GENERATING A FEW ACCAS...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM KEEPS THE AREA DRY THIS MORNING AS DOES
THE HRRR. REMOVED POPS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
THOUGHT IN MIND. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
MORNING SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD KICK
OFF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAISED POPS A BIT MORE FROM
MILES CITY EASTWARD. CAPES PROGGED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ON THE GFS
WITH NEAR 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION. CAPES AND SHEAR
WEAKER IN THE WEST...SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED SEVERE WEATHER
THERE. THAT BEING SAID...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR DOES GET TO AROUND
30 KTS OVER THE WEST...ACCORDING TO THE RAP...SO SMALL HAIL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
AS OF 0830Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXISTS
FROM NEAR HARDIN TO CARTER COUNTY. THIS A RESULT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LATEST PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES NEAR AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FROM LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS...THUS EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
END OVER OUR SOUTHEAST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE. LOOKING TO THE
WEST...THERE IS AN AREA OF PV MOVING FROM OR TO CENTRAL ID. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE ASCENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP BEFORE NOON ACROSS OUR WEST PER
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER CAPES OF 1200+ J/KG AND UP TO 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HRRR/RAP SHOW A SURGE OF DRIER MIXED WEST
WINDS PUSHING THRU MLS-4BQ. THIS WOULD SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER...
AND THIS MAY BE REASONABLE GIVEN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MT AS EARLY AS 18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH LINE
TONIGHT. WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET PLUS FORCING FROM THIS ENERGY WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EAST. COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS...ONE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ALREADY MENTIONED AND A SECOND IN
THE EVENING PER THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING
ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PWATS AND
DEEPER INSTABILITY AND IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES TO -5C
IN SOUTHEAST MT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND FEEL THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY IN OUR EAST.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR WESTERN
AREAS WITH CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL TURN WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER IDAHO BEGINS TO INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY BRINGING A MORE STABLE PATTERN. STILL
HINTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE MONTANA DAKOTA
BORDER SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND A DOMINANT RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AND LATEST RUNS SHIFT IT A BIT
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND BRING SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS 95 TO
100 POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM MILES
CITY EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATER STORMS COULD FORM FARTHER TO THE
WEST AND COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT BILLINGS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. FOR THE REST OF THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/082 060/086 059/090 062/093 063/095 063/097
2/T 32/T 21/E 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U
LVM 084 049/084 053/086 052/091 054/095 056/096 056/097
3/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 087 056/086 059/087 059/091 061/094 062/096 062/097
2/T 32/T 22/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 085 059/083 060/084 059/087 061/090 061/092 063/093
3/T 44/T 32/T 32/T 10/U 01/U 11/U
4BQ 083 057/083 059/082 058/085 059/089 059/092 061/092
2/T 44/T 33/T 31/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 080 057/080 058/081 057/082 058/086 058/088 060/087
3/T 54/T 33/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 082 053/081 055/081 054/084 055/088 055/090 057/091
2/T 32/T 33/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR UPPER 90S TODAY WITH A FEW
SPOTS TOUCHING THE HUNDRED DEGREE MARK. AS OF 1000 AM...MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S ALREADY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY IN
MOST SPOTS BUT WITH VERY PERSISTENT HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
LIKELY HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES...HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM FOR POINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 1. TO THE EAST
OF HERE...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND THUS THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHICH
WE WILL MONITOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
-ELLIS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THUS... CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S. -77
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC
LATE TONIGHT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERNLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE
FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND (POSSIBLY SINKING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY). SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOME
STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY...WITH
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING
INLAND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ADV CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL
WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 00-06Z
TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REINTRODUCED 20-30%
POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST NORTHEAST AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING...WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.25
INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MORE RAIN-
COOLED AIR.
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...PATCHY MVFR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND COULD SEE
PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD EARLY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT SO ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE FREQUENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SCA UP FOR
PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOME GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH A PERSISTENT LOW INLAND AND
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. PER LATEST WAVE MODELS...SEAS BUILDS TO 6
FEET OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIMINISH...REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THUS... CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST... HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN/FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT MAY HELP TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. KFAY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORIGINATING NEAR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES) THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING... BUT FEEL WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING. THUS... HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR KGSO/KINT FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC
LATE TONIGHT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERNLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: THE ABOVE MENTION COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY). AFTER THE
FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND (POSSIBLY SINKING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY). SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS. THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST THU AND FRIDAY.
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEEN UPDATING TAFS FOR LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
WILL BE DOING THE SAME FOR THE 15Z TAF PACKAGE.
STORMS MOVING EAST AT FAST CLIP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BY
LATE AFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
THU-SAT...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS. THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST THU AND FRIDAY.
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA. COMBINATION OF
FAST MOVING STORMS AND LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE.
EXPECT LINE TO CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MODELS
HAVE SOUTHERN AREAS GETTING STORMS THIS AFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
FRI-SAT...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONGTERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST NEEDS NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS MOST PROBABLE STARTING AROUND THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. HOT CONDITIONS STILL ARE LIKELY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY ON...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB
AREA AROUND 19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CU BUILDUPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST
AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT
KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF CONVECTION AN HOUR OR
TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY MENTION AT THIS POINT WITH
SHOWERS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB.
MVFR SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INCLUDING
AREAS OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY ON...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB
AREA AROUND 19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CU BUILDUPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST
AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT
KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF CONVECTION AN HOUR OR
TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY MENTION AT THIS POINT WITH
SHOWERS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB.
MVFR SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INCLUDING
AREAS OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
206 PM MST TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK AS MONSOON
2015 CONTINUES. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS THIS HAPPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS BEGINNING TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLD/SCT TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINE WITH HRRR AS
WELL AS NAM AND VARIOUS WRF RUNS. TSTORMS OVER THE RIM WILL SHIFT
SW INTO THIS EVENING WHILE TSTORMS OVER COCHISE COUNTY SHIFT
WESTWARD. SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 100 AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S. THIS POINTS
TO A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS THAT MAKE IT
INTO THE HOT VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF TUCSON BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER FROM TUCSON WEST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. NO MATTER HOW FAR WEST STORMS PROGRESS TONIGHT...EASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER INCREASED MOISTURE INTO SE AZ...SETTING UP A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS MENTIONED...EXPECT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
WITH DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE A LIKELY RESULT OF SOME OF TSTORMS AND
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN THE I-10 CORRIDOR NW
OF TUCSON.
THURSDAY TSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD...INCREASED MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW THE LEVELS OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 25/00Z. ISOLD-SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AND MOVE GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SW OR
WSW THROUGH 24/06Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFTERWARDS. THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE EAST OF ROUGHLY A
KSOW-KALK-KOLS LINE...ALTHOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOWS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR
NW AS KTUS. TOMORROW...GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE GILA
VALLEY INCLUDING KSAD WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AS EASTERLY WINDS
AT 10-14KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP NEAR KDUG. EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAMPING
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...ZONES 152...153 AND SOUTHERN 151.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD WESTWARD EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
REST OF THE WEEK. INITIAL THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STARTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL BE THE RULE. BREEZY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS
WILL BE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PUBLIC/DROZD
AVIATION/CARLAW
FIRE WEATHER/FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MONSOONAL/PACIFIC FLOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
LIFTED TO NEAR SCOTT CITY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG FRONT RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CAP WEAKENING
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE PWATS AND TD VALUES ARE
IMPRESSIVE...DEEP LAYER MIXING RATIOS/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LOCALLY WITHOUT
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING COULD HELP WITH
INITIATION...SO DESPITE THE DRY LAYERS ALOFT 20 TO 30 POPS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. VEERING SHEER PROFILES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER COULD
HELP SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ASSUMING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WARM FRONT BEFORE LOW LEVELS
STABILIZE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A
POTENTIAL BUT I AM STILL NOT SURE VIS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN FORECAST...SO WILL MONITOR SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE/TRENDS. FRONT SETS UP ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
100F TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND IN THE 90S TO THE NW. THIS
FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN AIDED BY HEIGHT FALLS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. I KEPT 20 POPS CONFINED TO
THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH DEPENDING ON CAP STRENGTH I COULD
SEE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST..SO I FAVOR STICKING WITH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE/NEAR ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE NOW IN PLACE OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS START OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF/GFS/NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS A
LITTLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT HAS
SAGGED DOWN THROUGH ABOUT THE WHOLE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LIFT MOVE AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PORTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND NORTH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ALWAYS A TRICKY AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SETUP FOR THE AREA. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAIN JET LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FRONT INITIALLY STAYS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAKE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
PRECIPITATION FORECAST MESSY. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES THE FAR WEST. ALSO POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE OR THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL
HELP DEVELOP STORMS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
FOR THE NIGHT...A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS IN
ADVANCE OF A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION. COMBINATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FAVORABLE THETA-E
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO CHANCE
POPS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE POPS TO BE RAISED FROM THIS.
AS STATED ABOVE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE IN POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LASTS...TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE MADE EVEN COOLER THAN WHAT
IS IN THERE NOW.
FRIDAY...MAIN JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
COLD AIR ALOFT...POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT ONCE AGAIN
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AGAIN TO HAVE TO MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES
COOLER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A RATHER STRONG/SHARP UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTH FLOW ALOFT.
HARD TO RULE OUT PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY IN MY
WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CRH_INIT DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO NICELY AND DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS THAT I WAS GIVEN.
THE ONLY TRULY DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO HOT OR WAY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF SOME
SORT. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY BY THE INIT AND DID NOT CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS
OR FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A FRONT THAT WILL STALL NEAR KMCK. DUE
TO LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING VFR I
LEFT MENTION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK FOR NOW. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT
LIFT NORTH AT KGLD AND THEN KMCK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH NOT TO MEET
INCLUSION CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MONSOONAL/PACIFIC FLOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
LIFTED TO NEAR SCOTT CITY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG FRONT RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CAP WEAKENING
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE PWATS AND TD VALUES ARE
IMPRESSIVE...DEEP LAYER MIXING RATIOS/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LOCALLY WITHOUT
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING COULD HELP WITH
INITIATION...SO DESPITE THE DRY LAYERS ALOFT 20 TO 30 POPS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. VEERING SHEER PROFILES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER COULD
HELP SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ASSUMING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WARM FRONT BEFORE LOW LEVELS
STABILIZE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A
POTENTIAL BUT I AM STILL NOT SURE VIS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN FORECAST...SO WILL MONITOR SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE/TRENDS. FRONT SETS UP ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
100F TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND IN THE 90S TO THE NW. THIS
FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN AIDED BY HEIGHT FALLS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. I KEPT 20 POPS CONFINED TO
THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH DEPENDING ON CAP STRENGTH I COULD
SEE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST. NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST..SO I FAVOR STICKING WITH A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE STARTING TO
AMPLIFY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEPENING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SO MADE VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CRH_INIT GRIDS. LOOK FOR THE MOST ACTIVE AND WET PART OF THE
PERIOD TO BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA WITH THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP AS MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS
OR FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A FRONT THAT WILL STALL NEAR KMCK. DUE
TO LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING VFR I
LEFT MENTION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK FOR NOW. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT
LIFT NORTH AT KGLD AND THEN KMCK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH NOT TO MEET
INCLUSION CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS OUR CWA...AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER RATE THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A PRETTY GOOD CAP
ACROSS THE REGION...ONCE OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...EXPECT WE WILL BREAK OUR CAP AND TAP INTO
SOME CONVECTION AND DECENT SHEAR. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
STARTING POPPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY OVER THE LAST FEW RADAR
SCANS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SOON TO FOLLOW. AS
SUCH...BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY...STILL
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...WITH THE BULK SUB
SEVERE. STILL COULDN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY STRONGER STORMS
HOWEVER. LOWERED POPS ALONG LMK/S CWA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS SINCE THE FRONT IS EVEN MORE SHEARED AS YOU HEAD WEST
TOWARDS THEIR AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH 18Z. BUT AFTER THAT...AT LEAST 30 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH IS INITIALIZING VERY WELL SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM OTHER HI RES MODELS...WENT
AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE THIS
DIDN/T CREATE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES...DO EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE TO BE CONTAINED ALONG AND THEN SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LED
TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH...REDUCING
THEM DOWN TO ISOLATED...BECOMING SCATTERED ONCE STORMS DROP BELOW
THE OHIO RIVER AREA. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER TENNESSEE...NOTHING ELSE HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
FAVOR OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AND APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM. IN FACT...IF
THE HI RES MODELS WORK OUT...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES
VERY LOW COVERAGE...SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO CHANGES TO
SEVERE THREATS AS DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS
CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON
AREA RADARS. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH NOTED SO FAR...AND THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
BY 2 PM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL HESITANT TO GO UP TO LIKELY POPS
GIVEN THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT GREAT...BUT JUST GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE SEVERE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. ANY POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THIS
SHOULD SPELL A DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT DO THE
SAME. THUS...WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH
MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL OUT THAT WAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL GENERALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE SE US WITH BEST JET ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/CUTOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SUB 576 HEIGHTS MAKING IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...UPPER
60S TO LOW 70 DEWPOINTS...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR NEARING 30 KNOTS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14 KFT. RAIN THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVER COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DECK HANGING ON. THIS
STRATUS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF TIME
HEIGHTS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY IS LOWER BUT DID OPT TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FRIDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE A BELOW NORMAL SHIFT WITH HIGHS ON POTENTIALLY STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION...BUT IS BECOMING
SHEARED OUT AS IT NEARS KENTUCKY. SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE LATEST RADAR SCANS...BUT EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY TO START UP AROUND 20Z AS WE REACH OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. CIGS ARE MAINLY SCT ACROSS THE REGION...HIGH MVFR AND
LOW END VFR. AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...EXPECT CIG
HEIGHTS TO REMAIN THE SAME...THOUGH BECOMING BKN AT TIMES. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...EXPECT PRECIP
TO COME TO AN END AND VIS AND CIGS TO GO BACK TO VFR.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...STILL EXPECTING
SOME GOOD POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTER TOMORROW AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 121 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Made a few updates to the forecast, mainly to delay any onset of
pops and to slightly lower coverage. The latest hi-res model runs
including the last few runs of the HRRR and the WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM all
depict rather sparse coverage of convection this afternoon. The
latest AMDAR soundings continue to depict a cap around 700-800mb.
While not unbreakable, this cap coupled with very weak convergence
along the effective boundary now crossing the Ohio River suggest
coverage should only be about 20-30% at best, with the best chances
being across southern and eastern KY.
Updated at 915 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Made a few adjustments to the going forecast this morning. The
latest satellite and observational trends depict a few boundaries in
play today across the region. The first is the synoptic cold front,
which currently lies across portions of central Ohio into central
Indiana. However, another boundary was present in between
Bloomington and Madison, IN. These boundaries will likely serve as
the triggers for convection today, with convection already ongoing
along the synoptic boundary in OH.
The 00Z hi-res NCAR/NSSL ensembles along with the latest runs of the
HRRR depict the similar idea of this secondary boundary currently
north of Madison, IN serving as the primary focus for convection
this afternoon. This would place the best chance for convective
development and the resultant severe threat mainly south of the Ohio
River. MLCAPEs will rise to strongly unstable levels (3000+ J/kg),
but deep-layer shear (0-6km) will be lacking at only about 20
knots. Therefore, think this will be very similar to Sunday`s
setup across southern KY with pulse strong/severe convection capable
of marginally severe hail and isolated bouts of damaging winds given
the drier mid-level air aiding in wet microburst potential.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Updated at 310 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon...
Another round of strong to severe storms is expected today as a cold
front approaches and moves through the region. This morning will
start out quite warm. Temperatures across the region are still in
the mid 70s to around 80. Lows are expected to be only in the mid
to upper 70s. Some of the mesoscale models are suggesting a few
showers will be possible across east central KY before daybreak and
a boundary is approaching this region this morning, so have added
isolated chances for thunderstorms there. In addition, some showers
along the outflow boundary from convection over IL could move into
southern IN by around daybreak.
After the sun comes up we will heat up quickly with the region
becoming quite unstable by mid day. Sounding from both the GFS and
NAM show CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg by mid day. However, effective
shear will be marginal at best, with the better shear further to the
north. Storms look to develop by the 15-18Z time frame, with better
coverage expected through the afternoon to early evening hours. The
activity is expected to start across the northern portion of the
forecast area and move south through the afternoon as the front
pushes in from the north. There will be several focusing mechanisms
for storms this afternoon including differential heating along the
edge of the cloud shield from overnight convection, the remnant
outflow boundary, and finally the front itself late in the afternoon
to early evening. Strong to severe storms are possible with damaging
winds and hail.
The storms from this afternoon should move out from mid to late
evening. Much of the overnight hours should then be quiet. However,
an MCS is expected to develop across the Midwest and dive southeast
overnight. The remnants of this system may affect portions of
southern IN and south central KY by early Wednesday morning.
However, models are variable as to the placement of this system, so
will keep just low pops in the forecast late tonight into
Wednesday morning for this system. Wednesday afternoon looks to be
dry as high pressure builds in from the north.
Temperatures today will be hot once again with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will peak in the mid 90s to
around 100. With the front moving through, lows tonight will be a
bit cooler than they have been lately in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Highs on Wednesday look to be just a bit cooler as well, topping out
in the mid to upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Thursday looks to be the last hot, muggy day before a pattern change
brings plentiful showers/storms for Thurs night through Saturday and
cooler weather for the weekend and beginning of next week.
Upper level ridging centered to our south should keep much of the
area dry Wed night into Thurs with the main convective activity
focused to our north along a cold front. Still can`t rule out a
20-30% chance of a shower/storm Wed night/Thurs especially over
southern IN closer to the boundary and ongoing convection, so will
continue low precip chances. With a strong southwesterly flow on
Thurs, expect temps to climb into the low to mid 90s for highs.
Heat index readings should soar into the low 100s Thurs afternoon.
Sensitive groups should use caution if outdoors.
Thursday night the cold front will begin to push south toward our
region bringing showers/storms with it. The hot, humid airmass
ahead of the front will provide good fuel for convection as it
enters our region. Also, models indicate that multiple ripples of
weak low pressure will likely ride along the front as it pushes
south into our region. Forcing and instability seem ideal for
strong to severe storms as the front slowly pushes through the
region Thurs night through early Saturday. An upper trough will
arrive Sat morning helping to enhance forcing along the boundary.
So Thursday night through Sat morning looks to be a stormy period
with multiple rounds of convection possible. It`s tough to pinpoint
exact timing on any strong/severe storms at this point as storm
strength and evolution will be dependent on the cold front, cloud
cover, and mesoscale boundaries. However, strong/severe storms will
certainly be possible sometime Thur night through early Saturday
with strong winds and hail being the main threats. With the cold
front looking to stall over the region a bit, heavy rainfall and
perhaps some minor flooding may also become a threat. Stay tuned as
we go through the week and the forecast details hopefully become a
bit more clear.
Most of the precipitation will be clear of the area by Sat evening
with Sunday being mostly dry. Another upper level shortwave and
cold front will arrive for Monday bringing another chance for
showers and storms.
The biggest change in the weather for this weekend will be cooler
temperatures behind the cold front. Highs should be limited to the
upper 70s/lower 80s from Saturday through through first part of next
week! Night time lows will drop back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 112 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Thunderstorm coverage is looking to be rather sparse this
afternoon/evening as a mid-level cap keeps things at bay, therefore
have removed all VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF. Probably could also
have removed it at KBWG, but guidance is still suggesting some
isolated to widely scattered development possible there so will
leave it in for now.
Otherwise, the front moves through all sites tonight, allowing drier
air to filter into the region. KBWG will be on the edge of the dry
air push, so some fog will be possible there. The density of this
fog will likely be dependent on the coverage of high clouds
streaming in overnight from the west and just how far south the
surface dry air gets. For now, will continue with just MVFR vsbys.
Wednesday will be a pleasant day, with generally light winds and VFR
conditions as high pressure briefly builds into the Ohio Valley.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SUPPORTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAST EVENING HAS NOW
LIFTED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA/DZ OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM THIS FEATURE HAS NOW ENDED
...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS PRESENTLY STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO
WNW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (NEAR 30 MPH) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR SOME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO BRING IN SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY...DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING STRATUS THIS
MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHILE WNW WINDS DIMINISH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
STAYS NORTH OF UPPER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NW UPPER
MI AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FIRST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION LIKELY WITH THE ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND RUNNING ALONG THE TIGHT
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THINK THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL COME DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE RESIDUAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND
THEN AGAIN HELPED BY DIURNAL HEATING ON THURSDAY. WITH THE WAVE
AROUND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DID TRY TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE DEFINITION ON THE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. ON
THURSDAY...AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD LIMIT
THE SHOWER POTENTIAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.
THE WAVES FROM MID-LATE THIS WEEK WILL HELP AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL REINFORCE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT CMX THIS
EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT SAW WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS S ACROSS UPPER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNW 35 KNOT GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SUPPORTED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAST EVENING HAS NOW
LIFTED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA/DZ OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM THIS FEATURE HAS NOW ENDED
...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS PRESENTLY STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO
WNW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (NEAR 30 MPH) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR SOME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO BRING IN SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY...DRYING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LINGERING STRATUS THIS
MORNING...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHILE WNW WINDS DIMINISH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
STAYS NORTH OF UPPER MI. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NW UPPER
MI AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE DAY WED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CAPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT OR BELOW 500J/KG...SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF
SOME PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ON WED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEEP THAT FARTHER SW...SO THE BEST POPS ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WI BORDER.
A SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO MON...WITH
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY JULY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT CMX THIS
EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT SAW WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS S ACROSS UPPER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNW 35 KNOT GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015
...Hot and Steamy Weather Continues Through Mid Week...Cold Front
Will Bring Rain and Cooler Weather End of the Week...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A front has stalled out across the area. This frontal boundary
shows up very nicely on the visible satellite imagery and surface
obs this afternoon. The front was currently located from near
Nevada to near Eminence. This front will start to slowly back up
northward later this evening and tonight. There is a complex of
storms northwest of the Kansas City area which are moving east-
southeastward.
The latest Hi-Res models suggest this complex if it holds together
may clip our central Missouri counties late this afternoon and
early evening. The HRRR and the ARW continues to suggest a few
isolated showers and storms developing near the stalled out
frontal boundary across central Missouri into the eastern Missouri
Ozarks. There will be a limited risk for a strong storm or two
with small hail and gusty winds as the main threat. Any convection
should either dissipate or move off to the east of the area after sunset.
Wednesday and Thursday will be hot and humid with the upper level
ridge nosing in a bit over the area. High temperatures may be a
couple degrees warmer than today with most areas in the lower to
middle 90s. Heat index will be around 100. Southwest winds will be
gusty up to 30 mph for areas west of Highway 65.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
A stronger shortwave will move through the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley region on Friday. This feature will begin to carve out a
trough across the eastern U.S. while an upper level ridge builds
across the western U.S. A cold front will move down into the
region starting Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin to impact portions of central Missouri late Thursday night
and area wide by Friday. Will not rule out a few strong storms
possible Friday with gusty winds and small hail the main threats.
The front will clear through the area by Friday night with rain
ending from north to south.
The weekend is shaping up to be extremely nice. Drier air will
move into the area with dewpoints in the 50s. The latest model
guidance came in a degree or two cooler with lows Saturday night
and Sunday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and Mostly sunny skies. Looks like the
below average temperatures will continue into early next week.
Another weak front may try to move into the area by Monday night
with a few showers and storms possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
Conditions will remain VFR at the terminals through the period. A
front located north of SGF could trigger some thunderstorms this
afternoon however these would likely remain north and east of SGF.
West winds will prevail this afternoon and evening before turning
back towards the south overnight. Low level wind shear looks even
less likely than previous nights.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Burchfield
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE POPS THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS FOCUS HAS BEEN
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND VARIOUS CAMS
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION FROM WV/VA WILL NOT ENTER E NC UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HAVE CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN TIER
OF THE FA. LOWS VERY WARM AND MUGGY...MID/UPR 70S INLAND TO 80-82
COAST. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 PM TUE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA
HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND.
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-110 THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT
MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF
AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 03-08Z TONIGHT...THOUGH
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS
OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS 75-80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE CWA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST WED AFTERNOON...WITH STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT. THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SEABREEZE...LIKELY BEING PINNED ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH...WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE FOR WED AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED STRONG
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN COUPLED
WITH CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE OF A NLY
SFC FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 17-19C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WARMEST IN THE S/SW
COUNTIES. COULD SEE BRIEF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE AREAS
WED AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BISECT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MHX CWA WED NIGHT AND WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HELD ON TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER, BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WILL STILL LIKELY SEE
SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD, LOW/MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR ACROSS THE CWA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF/ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF
HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS IN
THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
COULD BRING VCTS/VCSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD IN THE TAFS
AS HI- RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE BRIEF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF A KINSTON TO CAPE HATTERAS LINE. WILL NOT ADD VCTS IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE STORMS...BUT BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER ARE KISO/KOAJ/KEWN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS SHIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS 4-6FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON...MAKING
WIND DIRECTIONS CHALLENGING. WSW WINDS WILL START OFF WED...THEN
VEERING NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING NORTHERLY 5-15KT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SW AHEAD OF IT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WELL
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY LATE,
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MAY SEE A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY, CREATING A COMPLEX WINDS/SEAS FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL FEATURE. MAY SEE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH SUNDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT EAST
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 6
FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN
WAVEWATCH APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER
THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PER NSSL WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING
IN BTWN 03-08Z TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE
NC. AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS 75-80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE CWA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST WED AFTERNOON...WITH STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT. THE FRONT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE...LIKELY BEING PINNED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH...WILL LIKELY BE A
FOCUS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE FOR WED
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MARGINAL
SHEAR...ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AN ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES.
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN COUPLED
WITH CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE OF A NLY
SFC FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 17-19C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WARMEST IN THE S/SW
COUNTIES. COULD SEE BRIEF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE AREAS
WED AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BISECT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MHX CWA WED NIGHT AND WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HELD ON TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64. EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER, BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING WILL STILL LIKELY SEE
SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD, LOW/MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR ACROSS THE CWA AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF/ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF
HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS IN
THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, APPROACHING 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER EASTERN NC FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROUGH INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST COULD BRING VCTS/VCSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD IN
THE TAFS AS HI- RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAIN WEAKENING AS ITS
APPROACHING OUR AREA. PLUS...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS
EARLY MORNING (APPROX. 10Z) AND THEREFORE ADDED 5SM FOR OUR INLAND
TAF SITES (PGV/ISO). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 4KFT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS SHIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS 4-6FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON...MAKING
WIND DIRECTIONS CHALLENGING. WSW WINDS WILL START OFF WED...THEN
VEERING NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING NORTHERLY 5-15KT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SW AHEAD OF IT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WELL
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY LATE,
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MAY SEE A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY, CREATING A COMPLEX WINDS/SEAS FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL FEATURE. MAY SEE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH SUNDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT EAST
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 6
FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN
WAVEWATCH APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH IS
STARTING TO FIRE SOME SHOWERS OFF AS OF LAST HOUR. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT CONDITIONS HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED FROM HIGHWAY 1 EASTWARD. FOR RIGHT NOW THE
VERIFICATION FOR THIS ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH MOST SITES IN THE
ADVISORY SEEING MULTIPLE HOURS OF 105-109 DEGREE HEAT INDICES WITH
SOME JUST TOUCHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH RDU AND SOUTHERN PINES JUST TOUCHING IT BUT YET TO BE
DETERMINED IF IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY POSSIBLE IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM. ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OUT UNTIL 7 PM WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED IN THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON
THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY 5.5-6 DEG/KM AT THIS TIME. DESPITE
THAT...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BROUGHT DCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND
1200 J/KG AND SO SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THESE CELLS. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER...SOME 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
AREA ARE NON-EXISTENT HOWEVER AND NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE NW AFTER 00Z. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF
RALEIGH UNTIL ABOUT 7Z OR SO BEFORE DYING OUT. THE RAP MODEL AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX TRAVELING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING A CATALYST FOR
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH AND DIMINISHES
AFTER 6Z AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA...PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAYETTEVILLE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS ARE
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WHICH CORRELATES
WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR OUR AREA WITH A 5% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS THE ONLY THREAT TO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THERE WONT BE TOO MUCH
MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SO
IT WILL STILL BE HOT BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HIGHEST TEMPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL LEAD TO APPARENT
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 100S
IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE NO HEAT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SIGNIFY THE VERY BEGINNING OF
WHAT WILL BE A CHANGE IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH OR MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH THE EXACT BOUNDARY DETERMINED BY THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER BUT A FAIRLY DRY
DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THAT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE U.S. AND ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH...TO MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST. INITIALLY...THE
TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED ALMOST WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
LAST OF THE HOT DAYS...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE SW-NE ORIENTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE WITH
CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
PEAKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DECREASING THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE...HOWEVER IT IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERAL RIDGING AND NE FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 2
WEEKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ON SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY KRDU AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THIS TIME SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY MVFR.
OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONCLUDES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH IS
STARTING TO FIRE SOME SHOWERS OFF AS OF LAST HOUR. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT CONDITIONS HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED FROM HIGHWAY 1 EASTWARD. FOR RIGHT NOW THE
VERIFICATION FOR THIS ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH MOST SITES IN THE
ADVISORY SEEING MULTIPLE HOURS OF 105-109 DEGREE HEAT INDICES WITH
SOME JUST TOUCHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH RDU AND SOUTHERN PINES JUST TOUCHING IT BUT YET TO BE
DETERMINED IF IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY POSSIBLE IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM. ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OUT UNTIL 7 PM WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED IN THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON
THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY 5.5-6 DEG/KM AT THIS TIME. DESPITE
THAT...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BROUGHT DCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND
1200 J/KG AND SO SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THESE CELLS. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER...SOME 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
AREA ARE NON-EXISTENT HOWEVER AND NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE NW AFTER 00Z. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF
RALEIGH UNTIL ABOUT 7Z OR SO BEFORE DYING OUT. THE RAP MODEL AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX TRAVELING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING A CATALYST FOR
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH AND DIMINISHES
AFTER 6Z AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA...PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAYETTEVILLE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS ARE
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WHICH CORRELATES
WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR OUR AREA WITH A 5% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS THE ONLY THREAT TO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THERE WONT BE TOO MUCH
MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SO
IT WILL STILL BE HOT BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HIGHEST TEMPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL LEAD TO APPARENT
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 100S
IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE NO HEAT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SIGNIFY THE VERY BEGINNING OF
WHAT WILL BE A CHANGE IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH OR MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH THE EXACT BOUNDARY DETERMINED BY THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER BUT A FAIRLY DRY
DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY KRDU AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THIS TIME SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY MVFR.
OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONCLUDES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE: TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR UPPER 90S TODAY WITH A FEW
SPOTS TOUCHING THE HUNDRED DEGREE MARK. AS OF 1000 AM...MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S ALREADY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY IN
MOST SPOTS BUT WITH VERY PERSISTENT HEAT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
LIKELY HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES...HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM FOR POINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 1. TO THE EAST
OF HERE...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND THUS THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHICH
WE WILL MONITOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
-ELLIS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 8 METERS
HIGHER TODAY. THUS... GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THUS... CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT... WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW AND MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT
(NOTHING CURRENTLY ON RADAR). HOWEVER... AS THE FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY... THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS
LOOSELY SHOWN BY SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCES. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY (IF WE INDEED GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP) WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN
CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTERESTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES (CAM`S) GUIDANCES SHOWS
THIS LINE/DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CONTINUATION OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING... WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
EXPECT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S. -77
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. THUS... EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS... GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY KRDU AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THIS TIME SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY MVFR.
OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONCLUDES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
06/25 100 1952
GSO RECORDS
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
06/25 101 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
06/25 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOME
STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY...WITH
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING
INLAND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ADV CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL
WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 00-06Z
TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REINTRODUCED 20-30%
POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST NORTHEAST AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING...WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.25
INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MORE RAIN-
COOLED AIR.
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER EASTERN NC FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROUGH INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST COULD BRING VCTS/VCSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD IN
THE TAFS AS HI- RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAIN WEAKENING AS ITS
APPROACHING OUR AREA. PLUS...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS
EARLY MORNING (APPROX. 10Z) AND THEREFORE ADDED 5SM FOR OUR INLAND
TAF SITES (PGV/ISO). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 4KFT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE FREQUENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. UPDATED TO ADD
SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS. SCA UP FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOME GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH A PERSISTENT LOW INLAND AND
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. PER LATEST WAVE MODELS...SEAS BUILDS TO 6
FEET OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1221 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOME
STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY...WITH
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING
INLAND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ADV CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PER NSSL
WRF AND HRRR. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A LINE MOVING IN BTWN 00-06Z
TONIGHT...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE NC. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REINTRODUCED 20-30%
POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY
MID/LATE WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS REPLACED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. AS A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST NORTHEAST AREAS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTH. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LINGERING...WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.25
INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND IN MANY SPOTS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MORE RAIN-
COOLED AIR.
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...PATCHY MVFR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND COULD SEE
PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD EARLY MORNING AT ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT SO ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE FREQUENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. UPDATED TO ADD
SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS. SCA UP FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOME GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY
S/SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH A PERSISTENT LOW INLAND AND
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. PER LATEST WAVE MODELS...SEAS BUILDS TO 6
FEET OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
549 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL USE A BLEND OF
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR SKY COVER AND POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNSET. THE 22 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 KTS...WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...400
J/KG OF HAIL CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
GREATER STORM INTENSITY. MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS HAVE ALSO
BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE AT TIMES SUPERCELLUR
NATURE OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SFC TROUGH
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND NORTH...THEN SPREADING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...MORE SO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PORTRAY 800-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
LATEST HRRR ALONG WITH THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BULK
SHEAR INDICATE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVER THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
ND). WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK OUT OF THE STATE.
A TRANSITION FROM QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD
AGREEMENT ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
ISOLD/SCT -TSRA POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE REGION.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SFC TROUGH
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND NORTH...THEN SPREADING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...MORE SO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PORTRAY 800-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
LATEST HRRR ALONG WITH THE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BULK
SHEAR INDICATE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVER THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
ND). WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ON AN
EASTWARD TRACK OUT OF THE STATE.
A TRANSITION FROM QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD
AGREEMENT ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
ISOLD/SCT -TSRA POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE REGION.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
...2117Z UPDATE...
REMOVED ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM WW #342...ONLY
FULTON/FRANKLIN/ADAMS/YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES REMAIN UNTIL 700
PM.
DEEP CONVECTION EXITING SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
21Z WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO MY SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME TRAINERS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER BY 23Z. VFR CONDS
RETURNING NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS IN EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG WED MORNING AT KBFD AND
KJST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
...2050Z UPDATE...
REMOVED ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM WW #342...WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN TO CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY LINE.
DEEP CONVECTION EXITING SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
21Z WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO MY SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME TRAINERS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
...2030Z UPDATE...
REMOVED NORTHERN THIRD OF WW #342...WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH
OF A CLEARFIELD TO CENTRE TO SNYDER TO COLUMBIA COUNTY LINE.
MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST
RISK/THREAT FOR SEVERE T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
PA /SOUTH OF I-80/ THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE THRU 22-23Z ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA WHERE A VERY MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/
CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY.
WE MAY CONSIDER TALKING WITH SPC ABOUT TRIMMING BACK THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN SVR TSTM WATCH #342.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AT 18Z
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GRT
LKS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
MAINLY WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST BUT AT A LOWER PROBABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
18Z RADAR TRENDS...MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK/THREAT FOR SEVERE T-STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA /SOUTH OF I-80/ THIS AFTN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE
THRU 22-23Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WHERE A VERY MOIST BLYR /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVELY.
WE MAY CONSIDER TALKING WITH SPC ABOUT TRIMMING BACK THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN SVR TSTM WATCH #342.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AT 18Z
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GRT
LKS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
MAINLY WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST BUT AT A LOWER PROBABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS SEMI-ORGANIZED/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER EXITING THE SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 23Z WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #342. A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW
60S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY
WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.
PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.
ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.
PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR CONVECTION.
STORMS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THING WILL BE FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALSO SOME CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS AT BFD AND JST.
WED LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN KY...JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
VERY WARM AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING ACROSS
THE REGION...SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO SOMETIMES UPPER 70S. THIS IS CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
TO COVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED
YET. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND SBCAPES AROUND 5000 J/KG THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z OR SO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM
THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM COULD
OCCUR ANYWHERE BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ON THURSDAY BUT STILL
HOT AND HUMID. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. STILL VERY
WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 28C ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE GULF WITH BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLE DEEP UPPER TROF.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-CROCKETT-DYER-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE IN NUMBER AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 540 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONVECTION GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS NRN VA/MD...SW TO SRN WV. NOT
SEEING ANYTHING SVR YET NEAR OUR AREA BUT STRONG. 21Z MESOANALYSIS
STILL DEPICTING MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS OUR CWA WITH BACKING
WINDS ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT WATCH STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP...SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING SE INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO LYH AREA BY 8 PM. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SE GIVEN LACK OF SUPPER CURRENTLY THERE AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTH AND NW TO
ACCOUNT FOR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.
MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER
EARLY ON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL PA SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL PA.
BY 02Z/10PM...GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORM AS TO THE
POSITIONING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO
WESTERLY FLOW LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...KEEPING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE RNK WRF ON THE OTHER HAND OFFERS A SOLUTION
OF GENEROUS COVERAGE NOT ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN
AREAS...BUT SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. OUR FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RNK WRF...BUT NOT AS
ROBUST OF COVERAGE AS THE RNK WRF IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. IF IT DOES...IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...CLOSEST
TO THE COLD FRONT. THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT
START UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.
THE DAY ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULE OUT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHT COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH.
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT...AND ITS
PROXIMITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS TRACK OF SHORT WAVES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AREA OF LIFT...AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
GFS IS REASONABLE WITH SURFACE FEATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LOW MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACK DOWN THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH
TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH DIGS ENOUGH THAT RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORT WAVE
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY 25 TO 30 KNOT EAST 850 MB
WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NCEP FAVORED THE GENERAL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM KY/OH/PA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CORES.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PREVAILING NW 850 MB WINDS
ALLOW FOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COINCIDENT TO THE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE EXPANSIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR COOLER CONDITIONS...BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE IN NUMBER AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN FORMING WITHIN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WHILE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP INTO STORMS AND MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD...THE REAL WEATHER
STORY IS LOOMING TO OUR NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST
CENTRAL PA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION
WAS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL PA. OTHER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY
AS CLOSE AS ISOLATED BETWEEN CHARLESTON WV AND HANCOCK MD. THIS
ORIENTATION OF PRECIPITATION WAS MATCHING FAIRLY WELL WITH GUIDANCE
OFFERED BY THE 17Z/1PM RUN OF THE HRRR...WITH THE 12Z/8AM RUN OF THE
RNK WRF NOT TOO UNLIKE IT AS WELL. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES WERE THE
POSITIONING AND COVERAGE OF THE LEE SIDE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE WRF IS TOO FAR WEST AND THE HRRR IS
TOO NUMEROUS.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARRIVE IN
OUR I-64 CORRIDOR AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH OUR REGION....REACHING A WYTHEVILLE TO ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG
TO BUCKINGHAM LINE AROUND 23Z/7PM. BY 02Z/10PM...GUIDANCE IS NOT
QUITE AS UNIFORM AS TO THE POSITIONING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE
HRRR GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO WESTERLY FLOW LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...KEEPING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE RNK WRF ON THE OTHER HAND OFFERS
A SOLUTION OF GENEROUS COVERAGE NOT ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN
AREAS...BUT SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. OUR FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RNK WRF...BUT NOT AS
ROBUST OF COVERAGE AS THE RNK WRF IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. IF IT DOES...IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...CLOSEST TO THE
COLD FRONT. THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT START
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARABLE
TO THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.
THE DAY ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULE OUT. THE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION OFFERS THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY ROANOKE NORTH TO COVINGTON AND POINTS EASTWARD AS THE REGION
OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THEIR ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHT COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH.
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT...AND ITS
PROXIMITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS TRACK OF SHORT WAVES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AREA OF LIFT...AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
GFS IS REASONABLE WITH SURFACE FEATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LOW MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACK DOWN THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH
TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH DIGS ENOUGH THAT RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORT WAVE
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY 25 TO 30 KNOT EAST 850 MB
WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NCEP FAVORED THE GENERAL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM KY/OH/PA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CORES.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PREVAILING NW 850 MB WINDS
ALLOW FOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COINCIDENT TO THE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE EXPANSIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR COOLER CONDITIONS...BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
STILL PPINE ON LOCAL KFCX 88D. HOWEVER...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY SHORTLY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN KY/WV IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
200 PM. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT THE SAME
TIME EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITHIN AN AXIS OF A LEE
SIDE TROUGH. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION MORE IN THE 5PM TO 6PM TIME
FRAME. HAVE RAMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 6PM
AND 9PM. AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...A
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
AGAIN ONCE ACTIVITY GETS EAST OF THE DANVILLE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST NEEDS NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS MOST PROBABLE STARTING AROUND THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. HOT CONDITIONS STILL ARE LIKELY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM KY/OH/PA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CORES.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PREVAILING NW 850 MB WINDS
ALLOW FOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COINCIDENT TO THE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE EXPANSIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR COOLER CONDITIONS...BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
STALL...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
STILL PPINE ON LOCAL KFCX 88D. HOWEVER...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY SHORTLY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN KY/WV IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HEAD SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
200 PM. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT THE SAME
TIME EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITHIN AN AXIS OF A LEE
SIDE TROUGH. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION MORE IN THE 5PM TO 6PM TIME
FRAME. HAVE RAMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 6PM
AND 9PM. AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...A
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
AGAIN ONCE ACTIVITY GETS EAST OF THE DANVILLE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST NEEDS NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS MOST PROBABLE STARTING AROUND THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. HOT CONDITIONS STILL ARE LIKELY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +22-23C AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD HEATING SHOULD PUSH SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 100 OUT
EAST WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS
ENOUGH MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THUS WILL MENTION IN THE HWO BUT
NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
OTHER BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT AS CONVECTION LINES UP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TYPE OUTFLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HEADING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON. MODELS
TENDING TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE JUST NW OF THE CWA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT IT SE INTO HIGH INSTABILITY/DCAPES
INCLUDING STEEP LAPSES AS THE FRONT JUMPS OUT TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEP...WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SOME
SPLITTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND OTHERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PIEDMONT AND OUT WEST. IF SLOWER...
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES COULD SEE A LINE SWING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTH/NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPLITTING IN TWO
AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WITH BEST COVERAGE NE WHERE FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE...AND OVER THE FAR WEST PER
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN SO MUCH WEST WIND AND NVA OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...TRENDED SLOWER WITH BRIEF LIKELY POPS FAR
NW/NE...AND HIGHER CHANCES ELSW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES BACK LATE. ALSO HIGHER CHANCES SE WEST VA
SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE OUTFLOW COULD SPARK SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTRW APPEARS LOWEST POPS 20/30S NEW
RIVER/ROANOKE VALLEYS PENDING TIMING AND DEGREE OF MIXING INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STAY TO THE
NORTH...UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/BANDS MAKING FOR DECENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE.
ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS EVENING
AND PERHAPS PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH BUT STALLS OUT CROSSING THE WEST. HOWEVER THINKING
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF
A LINE SWINGS THROUGH OR SPLITS SO ONLY LEAVING IN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS LATE. OTRW SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN ALL EXCEPT THE
FAR WEST/SW GIVEN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND UNDER
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE WEST AND 68-74 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
ENTER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID 50S. NOT MUCH COOL AIR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH A HIGH SUMMER SUN AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WITH THE PUNCH OF DRY AIR...THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE STALL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
EDGE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS REFECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE
DIURNAL...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY ON...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB
AREA AROUND 19Z/3PM. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CU BUILDUPS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES. APPEARS BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE WEST
AROUND KBLF/KLWB AND ACROSS THE NE AROUND KLYH WITH LESS AT
KBCB/KROA DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. KDAN MAY SEE A LINE OF STORMS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTRW DELAYED TIMING OF CONVECTION AN HOUR OR
TWO MOST SPOTS AND KEPT MOSTLY VICINITY MENTION AT THIS POINT WITH
SHOWERS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB.
MVFR SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INCLUDING
AREAS OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
JUNE 23
CITYTEMPYEAR
BLF901988
DAN1001988
LWB911988
LYH981911
BCB921988
ROA981914
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...CF
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN U.S.. WHILE A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW RUNS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ONE IN SIOUX FALLS ALONG
WITH A WIDE AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS HELPING TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF ALTOSTRATUS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIRMASS HAS BEEN TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE SEEING ECHOES ON RADAR...AS
REFLECTED BY THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING WITH A 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
OF 40C. ONLY A VERY FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED SPRINKLES. MAIN SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS WAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AND WAS VERY SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH TODAY. THAT NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A
PERSISTENT COMPLEX OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO THE
KANSAS CITY AREA. SUNSHINE TODAY COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
10C HAS RESULTED IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH MIXING AND DRY AIR RESULTING IN READINGS
OF 45 TO 55F.
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HELPING TO PROVIDE THE
DRY CONDITIONS ONLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE SOME HIGHER BASED FRONTOGENESIS...YIELDING SOME
ALTOSTRATUS AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE MID 50S.
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE SHORT TERM IS FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN KANSAS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AT LEAST CONVECTION IF NOT AN MCS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT. CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD TAKE THIS MCS INTO NORTHERN MO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
HOLDING THE FRONT BACK. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE LIKE THE 23.12Z
GFS/NAM WANT TO KEEP MOVING THE FRONT NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EITHER PREVIOUS OR NEW CONVECTION INTO NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI. BELIEVE THIS IS GOING TO BE TOUGH AS CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITS DAYTIME MIXING...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HOLDS THE BOUNDARY
BACK. MORE LIKELY...WHEN NEW CONVECTION FIRES IT WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE HUNG UP NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER BY 00Z THU. THE 23.12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST SOUTH MODEL
WITH THE FRONT AND CONVECTION...AND SEEMS MOST REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONVECTION TRACKS. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST IA BUT STILL ONLY AS MUCH AS 50 PERCENT BY LATE
IN THE DAY GIVEN ANTICIPATION FOR MOST CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH.
GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF CAPE TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK WAS SHIFTED MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS...OUTSIDE THE 23.12Z
ECMWF...HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE FRONT IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA HEADING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN OR WI. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE IS DRY...WHEREAS THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND HAVE PRECIP. THE GFS/NAM ALSO HAVE HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH SEEM TOO HIGH. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE IN TAYLOR COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE AND SOME SUN LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...WARMEST TO THE NORTH WHERE LONGER PERIOD OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
23.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAIN THE SAME LONG WAVE PATTERN THEY
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING SHIFTING AND BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON
THURSDAY...CAUSING FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.. THIS SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION GOING INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG PHASE 6. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS TEMPERATURES TO HOLD AT OR NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMALS...WITH PERHAPS A SLOW WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY GULF OF MEXICO RETURN OF MOISTURE SHOULD
GET SHUTOFF WITH MOISTURE SOURCES MOSTLY TURNING TO
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND WHAT SYSTEMS CAN BRING OFF THE PACIFIC DOWN
THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT NEAR
THE IA/MO BORDER AT 00Z THU REALLY DETERMINES THE CONVECTION
CHANCES. CURRENT THINKING LIES ALONG THE MORE PREFERRED ECMWF VERSUS
THE BIASED NORTH GFS/NAM/SREF/CANADIAN...WHICH SUGGESTS ANOTHER MCS
FORMING OVER CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...MARCHING LIKELY
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
HIGHEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS
MCS COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTH...THUS HAVE THE HIGHEST 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCES THERE FOR THE EVENING. TRIMMED CHANCES BACK FARTHER NORTH
AND AREAS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 18 MAY END UP DRY. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29...CLOSER TO THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHING ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN WI. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 23.12Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM WANT TO FIRE UP SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE 23.12Z
ECMWF SHOWS THESE SAME SHORTWAVES BUT IS DRY. MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE
RELATES TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ITS IMPACT TO CAPE. AT BOTH
00Z FRI AND 00Z SAT...THE GFS IS NEARLY 10F HIGHER ON SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO THE ECMWF. THINKING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT AND THUS
HAVE ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AT MOST...HIGHEST IN WESTERN AREAS.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...BUT THEN THERE IS
AN ISSUE WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MODELS TIMING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE 23.12Z
ECMWF IS FASTEST AND SPREADS SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...WHEREAS THE 23.12Z CANADIAN/GFS WAIT UNTIL EITHER LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. GIVEN THE SPREAD...HAVE KEPT A 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ALL 3 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY A GOOD PORTION
CAN PROBABLY BE DRIED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS ONCE THE TIMING GETS
RESOLVED. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...KRST WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG 500 TO
600 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND. THIS WILL KEEP A BROKEN 12-20K FOOT
DECK OF CLOUDS AT THE SITE. MEANWHILE AT KLSE...THIS
FRONTOGENETIC BAND LOOKS TO SAY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN THAT DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
253 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VERY CONDITIONAL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...VERY HIGH DEW POINTS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW
POINTS RANGE FROM 61 AT SIDNEY...TO 60 AT CHEYENNE TO 55 AT
DOUGLAS AT 1PM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE ANTICIPATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP DUE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW ISOLATED CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY AROUND THE LARAMIE AREA/SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING RIGHT AROUND 750MB
HERE AT CHEYENNE...730MB AT CHADRON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THIS
CAP IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 00Z WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ANYWHERE FROM -60 J/KG HERE AT CHEYENNE TO -100 J/KG AT CHADRON
FROM SPC`S PAGE. GOING TO TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK THIS CAP...IF WE
DO IT AT ALL.
DO THINK CURRENT IDEA OF LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ON TRACK. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THIS
EVENING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. ALREADY SEEING
THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN WESTERN WYOMING AHEAD OF THAT
SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR CONVECTIVE SIMULATION SHOWING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT AFTER 00Z NEAR LUSK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING. ALSO SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG CELL DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR CHEYENNE AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SO DO
FEEL THE LATEST SPIC SLIGHT RISK AREA IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS AND ECMWF QPF OUTPUT HAS CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO 12Z BEFORE
FINALLY ENDING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DO HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT
COULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS. TIMING IS PERFECT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
THE LAST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL EXIT INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION AND
HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...CONTINUE TO
DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED. THE PLAINS WILL BE VOID OF CONVECTION AS THE MID LEVELS
WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES MORESO EARLY WEEK WITH STOUT MID
LEVEL CAP. THE UPSHOT IS A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
TSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BECOMING SCATTERED AS IT MOVES EAST ONTO THE