Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/22/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND EXITED THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS...AND NW CT...AND ARE HEADING INTO CENTRAL CT
AND OTHERS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOWERS HAD SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...OVER SRN VT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS BENIGN AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...NO REAL IMPACT IS OCCURRING...AND LITTLE LTG ACTIVITY
IS ACCOMPANYING THIS AS WELL.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY...SHOWING
JUST SCT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF IT WILL
START TO WANE...AS THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH NOCTURNAL EFFECTS TAKING OVER...AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT MOVING OFF INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER...AND JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS WE REMAIN IN A FAST FLOW.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
APPROACH MONDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MORE POTENT AND WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...LOOKING AT A THREAT WINDOW FROM
LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BE PRESENT.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST. HAVE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
IN ADDITION...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BRISK WINDS
SUBSIDING.
MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WARM WHILE IT WILL GET VERY WARM/HOT ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MAINLY FROM THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE VALLEY. DID NOT GO WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS...SEEMS
OVERDONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY...BUT WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...
AND HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN ONLY THE 60S AND LOWER TO MID
70S. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH OVER THE
REGION. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS
BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
IN A FEW SPOTS...ESP THOSE THAT SAW RAINFALL TODAY. IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR KGFL/KPSF...WITH JUST MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KPOU. KALB
MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING THERE.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
DAY ON MONDAY WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL CU AND WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10
KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL COME TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
903 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TREND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT BOTH SHOW INCREASING CHANCES AFTER
09Z. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR
SPI AND EXTENDING IN A NW TO SE LINE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SPOTTY, AND MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WE REDUCED POPS THIS EVENING IN ALL AREAS, AND KEPT A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING A STRONG MCS ROLLING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
TONIGHT AND REACHING NORTHERN IL BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. THE RAP SHOWS
INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN OUR WESTERN CWA, WITH A WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT, BUT NOT NEARLY AS VIGOROUS
AS THE HRRR. THE HRRR TRACK SHOWS THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SPC HAS KEPT US
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (5%) NORTH OF PEORIA.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
INSULATING EFFECT OF THE CLOUDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LIGHT FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS, AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MCS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO AND DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO SW HALF OF IL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY. DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY AS CAPES
RISING INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HIGHEST OVER OVER SW CWA
AT MID AFTERNOON. CAPES RISE TO 4000 J/KG AND HIGHER OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MO AND 4000-6000 J/KG FURTHER WEST OVER KS. SOME CIN
RESTRICTINGCONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IL BUT THAT IS
FADING AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM FAR NORTHERN MO INTO FAR SW IL CLOSER TO MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
IL WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENT TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND
THEN TAPERS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FROM I-74 NE. OUR NE CWA FROM I-74
NE TO SEE THERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
RUSHVILLE TO TERRE HAUTE SW REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING WHILE ENHANCED RISK IS FURTHER SW OF CWA OVER CENTRAL MO
INTO SW IL WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. LOCALLY HEAVE RAIN
POSSIBLE SW CWA AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.5-2 INCHES WHILE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MO.
MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NE OF
I-74.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING
THE MORNING AND THEN BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR EVEN SOUTHERN WI. BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN IN MONDAY IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PARTS OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT DROP TOO FAR AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SO PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR TUE AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND ROLLS INTO IL FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THUR THUS CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THUR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THUR AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET INTO THE 95 TO 100 RANGE ON
MONDAY AND WED. THIS WORTH NOTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
AND THEN SHOULD BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IL, SOUTH OF OUR
COUNTIES. NEARLY ALL THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, WITH A GROUP OF CELLS WEST OF PEORIA AND ANOTHER DOWN NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OR STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE TAFS ALL
DRY FOR NOW, WILL FOLLOWS HRRR MODEL TRENDS.
LOW TO MID CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIP
FROM NEAR THE TAF SITES. WILL KEEP SKIES VFR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY TOWARD
SUNRISE. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO FOR 4SM BR IN ALL TAFS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
649 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MCS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO AND DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO SW HALF OF IL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY. DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY AS CAPES
RISING INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HIGHEST OVER OVER SW CWA
AT MID AFTERNOON. CAPES RISE TO 4000 J/KG AND HIGHER OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MO AND 4000-6000 J/KG FURTHER WEST OVER KS. SOME CINRESTRICTING
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IL BUT THAT IS FADING AND
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM FAR
NORTHERN MO INTO FAR SW IL CLOSER TO MS RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN IL WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENT TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN TAPERS TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FROM I-74 NE. OUR NE CWA FROM I-74 NE TO SEE THERE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE SW REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WHILE
ENHANCED RISK IS FURTHER SW OF CWA OVER CENTRAL MO INTO SW IL
WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. LOCALLY HEAVE RAIN POSSIBLE SW CWA
AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5-2 INCHES
WHILE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MO. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NE OF I-74.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING
THE MORNING AND THEN BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR EVEN SOUTHERN WI. BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN IN MONDAY IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PARTS OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT DROP TOO FAR AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SO PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR TUE AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND ROLLS INTO IL FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THUR THUS CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THUR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THUR AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET INTO THE 95 TO 100 RANGE ON
MONDAY AND WED. THIS WORTH NOTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
AND THEN SHOULD BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN IL, SOUTH OF OUR
COUNTIES. NEARLY ALL THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, WITH A GROUP OF CELLS WEST OF PEORIA AND ANOTHER DOWN NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OR STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE TAFS ALL
DRY FOR NOW, WILL FOLLOWS HRRR MODEL TRENDS.
LOW TO MID CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIP
FROM NEAR THE TAF SITES. WILL KEEP SKIES VFR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY TOWARD
SUNRISE. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO FOR 4SM BR IN ALL TAFS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEAR INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHT COOLER
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING COOL
OUTFLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE WEST
AND AMPLIFIES BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 100 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 71 100 69 98 / 0 10 20 0
EHA 70 100 70 97 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 70 100 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 73 97 70 93 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 98 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEAR INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHT COOLER
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING COOL
OUTFLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE WEST
AND AMPLIFIES BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 100 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 71 99 69 98 / 0 10 20 0
EHA 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 73 97 70 93 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 99 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1059 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY BUT HAS
WEAKENED A BIT OVERALL AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR BUT STILL
REMAINS RATHER STRONG FOR LATE EVENING. THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS CENTRAL KY CONVECTION
ALL THAT WELL THOUGH THE 2Z HRRR SEEMS TO BE MORE REALISTIC
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT PROBABLY IS A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THIS CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION...WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING POPS AND HELD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT WAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO SLIGHT POP THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
FOR ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR SUGGEST A QUIET
OVERNIGHT THEREAFTER. MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW...BUT BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND TO CAP
MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
IN OUR VICINITY TAKES A TEMPORARY JOG NORTHWARD. BEEFED UP FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SAW THE MOST
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
AFTER UPDATING THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO BRING IN LINE WITH LATEST
THOUGHTS AND TRENDS ADJUSTED GRIDS TOWARDS MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED DOWN
INTO OUR AREA TODAY...PRODUCED BY AN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST LAST
NIGHT. WITH AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO DRAW FROM...STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE WITH SOME LIKELY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN SOME CALLS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREES DOWN IN
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...BUT STILL TRYING TO CONFIRM. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD
BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S...
AND CLOSE TO 100 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. THIS RIDGE
WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. A TRUE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
TO WELCOME IN THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
STORMS IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING KLOZ AND KSME ARE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN PLACES...A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY HIT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS A BIT HARDER
WITH FOG THAN THE NORTHERN SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW
MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING BURNS OFF MOST FOG BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5KT MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
752 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 752 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
After chatting with SPC, will allow the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to
expire on time as instability lessens and CIN increases. Will need
to hold on to scattered PoPs for the remainder of the evening hours
however with some weak low level jetting from Missouri to central
Illinois, the entrance region of a small upper jetlet crossing
central Indiana, and a weak 5H wave approaching from the west.
Could see some patchy fog late but there should be enough cirrus
overhead to keep it from becoming too widespread or dense.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Kept a couple hours of VCTS in the BWG TAF for the cells that are
currently in the area plus new ones attempting to come in from
western Kentucky. Also went ahead and put in a couple hours of VCTS
at SDF in case the convection currently over central Indiana can
survive all the way to the airport. LEX should remain high and dry
for the foreseeable future.
With the rain that fell at BWG this evening and with lighter winds
expected tonight than last night, included some high-end MVFR BR for
a few hours toward dawn. A cirrus canopy overhead will help to keep
the fog from getting out of hand (and possibly from forming at all).
Ridging will keep us dry tomorrow other than perhaps a stray cell in
the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
751 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT WAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO SLIGHT POP THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
FOR ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR SUGGEST A QUIET
OVERNIGHT THEREAFTER. MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW...BUT BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND TO CAP
MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
IN OUR VICINITY TAKES A TEMPORARY JOG NORTHWARD. BEEFED UP FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SAW THE MOST
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
AFTER UPDATING THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO BRING IN LINE WITH LATEST
THOUGHTS AND TRENDS ADJUSTED GRIDS TOWARDS MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED DOWN
INTO OUR AREA TODAY...PRODUCED BY AN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST LAST
NIGHT. WITH AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO DRAW FROM...STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE WITH SOME LIKELY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN SOME CALLS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREES DOWN IN
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...BUT STILL TRYING TO CONFIRM. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD
BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S...
AND CLOSE TO 100 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. THIS RIDGE
WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. A TRUE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
TO WELCOME IN THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
STORMS IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING KLOZ AND KSME ARE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN PLACES...A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY HIT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS A BIT HARDER
WITH FOG THAN THE NORTHERN SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW
MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING BURNS OFF MOST FOG BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5KT MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
711 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Kept a couple hours of VCTS in the BWG TAF for the cells that are
currently in the area plus new ones attempting to come in from
western Kentucky. Also went ahead and put in a couple hours of VCTS
at SDF in case the convection currently over central Indiana can
survive all the way to the airport. LEX should remain high and dry
for the foreseeable future.
With the rain that fell at BWG this evening and with lighter winds
expected tonight than last night, included some high-end MVFR BR for
a few hours toward dawn. A cirrus canopy overhead will help to keep
the fog from getting out of hand (and possibly from forming at all).
Ridging will keep us dry tomorrow other than perhaps a stray cell in
the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE HIGHER RES MODEL SCENARIO...SHOWS AN
ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO SRN WI OR NRN IL
ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN
TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN.
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY THROUGH 18Z.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF IN THE
MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF
50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS IS CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES AND THEN ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY MON AFTERNOON. ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND
LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AT SAW AND THEY SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE THUNDER AT TIMES MON...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. A LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO
MON EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE FOR
LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER THIS EVENING AS
LATEST SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE SITTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO GAIN MOMENTUM OVER NW WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE ON GOING CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS...WHERE A
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH DEEPENING H85/SFC LOW WILL
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...WHICH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DLH CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY.
THE SHORT WAVES WITH SFC TROUGH/H85 LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE CAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
SEASONABLE TO MILD WEEK AHEAD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MID/LATE WEEK
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE WILL BE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 100KT JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING QUIET
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUES INTO
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE TO MILD.
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FOLLOWING
A LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY END BY 06Z AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY SUNNY AND DRY DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTING EAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT SHEAR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 35-40 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD
THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
HEADED TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
COMPLEX...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM LATE
TUESDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT TOUGH TO
DETERMINE WHICH DAY WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT NO
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN 50S.
FRI...SAT...SUN...SEASONABLE TO MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUING TO
BE IN THE PATH OF A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...AND ALSO DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR HUDSON
BAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPS AGAIN MORE OF THE SAME...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 09Z WHEN A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PLOWS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
15-18Z MONDAY. A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KHYR AND
KDLH...BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 72 53 76 / 50 70 10 0
INL 54 67 51 75 / 70 80 20 20
BRD 61 77 55 78 / 70 70 0 0
HYR 58 75 56 76 / 30 70 10 0
ASX 54 74 55 76 / 20 70 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 518 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Tonight - Monday:
Elevated convection redeveloping across northwest MO where airmass
is being feed by increasing feed of accas forming across northeast
KS. While the HRRR has had some issues its also been adamant that
scattered convection would from over northwest MO late this
afternoon and evening. SPC Meso Analysis depicts region of deep
moisture convergence and advection of better instability into
northwest MO to support the continued development. Isolated severe
is possible as 40kt 0-6km shear supports activity. Convection will
likely begin to fall apart as we head towards sunset and instability
begins to wane. Boundary currently over west central MO will
eventually lift north and into IA overnight allowing southerly flow
to reestablish itself.
Hot and humid air funnels back into the region as a stiff
southwesterly low level jet pushes in. Hot h7 temperatures in the
+14C to +17C range will effectively cap the airmass for most of the
day. Highs should rebound back into the lower to middle 90s with
hottest air over west central/northwest MO and eastern KS. Add in
surface dewpoints in the 71F-74F range and HI values will likely top
out around 105F. So issued a heat advisory for afternoon hours.
Fast zonal flow across the northern tier of states will allow a fast
moving shortwave to force a cold front south and east into northwest
MO by very late afternoon. Hot h7 temperatures will hold back
convection but operational models "cooling" at h7 by 00z Tuesday
suggest cooling due to convection. While convection will likely hold
off until Monday night will transition to that with a small window
of slight chance PoPs over far northwest MO.
Monday night - Tuesday night:
Aforementioned cold front will be the focus for scattered convection
Monday evening. Moderate/extreme instability and 0-6km bulk shear of
30-35kt will support a severe threat across northern MO down to the
MO River.
This frontal boundary is expected to stall across central MO on
Tuesday then lift back north as a warm front. Thus this boundary
will once again be the focus for a third round of potential severe
weather Tuesday through Tuesday night. Should see a 10-15 degree
thermal contrast across the boundary. High precipitable water values
during this period will support a continued heavy rain threat as
some training of cells is possible.
Wednesday:
The warm front is expected to lift north into IA and allow the cap
to reform and give us a chance to dry out. But the hot and humid air
is the trade off.
Thursday - Saturday:
The bouncing front is expected to head back south during this period
and in the vicinity of the CWA such that moderately high PoPs are
required. Extensive cloud cover and the rain cooled air should bring
reasonably cool air to the region, but at a cost...high humidity and
the threat of heavy rains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Morning storms have lifted northeast of the terminals, and are not
expected to redevelop to the west and south this evening. Cloud cover
will gradually diminish this evening, and gusty SSE winds will veer
slightly to the SSW over the next few hours, and maintain speeds
between 8-10 kts overnight.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ002>006-
011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH AND REPLACE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 327 UNTIL 5AM CDT. AN AREA
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MCINTOSH AND DICKEY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL MOUNTRAIL...WARD...RENVILLE.....
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...ROLETTE AND PIERCE COUNTIES FROM TORNADO
WATCH 324.
FOCUS IS TURNING BACK TO MONTANA AGAIN AS ANOTHER SUPERCELL JUST
EAST OF MILES CITY AS OF 225 UTC IS RAPIDLY PROPAGATING EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE STORM WILL START TURNING RIGHT
AND MISS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WILLIAMS...DIVIDE AND BURKE
COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AS OF 2345 UTC...ANVIL SHADING APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR NOW.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL ACROSS BOWMAN COUNTY
WHICH IS IN THE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 21-22 UTC HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION....WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH TWO POTENTIAL
LINES...ONE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE US
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND A SECOND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
ANVIL SHADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LIFTING MID
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 327 FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL 5 AM CDT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO AREAS OF STORMS...DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MINIMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN LEADING TO MORE GENERAL THUNDER HERE...ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS TO 40-50MPH LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FA (SE ND/WC MN)...WITH APPROACHING STORMS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST PART OF THE APPROACHING STORM MAY
DRIVE INTO GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WILL BE CLOSE. STRONG WIND (BOW ECHO) THE MAIN THREAT.
INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER UPPER WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO 12Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (BRIEF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY
SOME SMALLER HAIL)...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
INCREASED POPS AS CONFIDENCE THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS INCREASED. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
IN FACT...CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH QUICKLY DROPS TO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A RATHER STRONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SET UP FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WOULD IMAGINE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FEATURE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND TRACK SOME
SORT OF STRONGER MCS INTO SE ND. CURRENT HRRR DEPICTS THIS
SCENARIO...WITH A BOW TYPE FEATURE TRACKING INTO SE ND OR POSSIBLY
JUST SOUTH OF THIS FA. TO THE NORTH...INTO THE MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE NEAR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER THESE REPORTS WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE
AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.
THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT...BUT TRACK SOUTH OF THIS
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
FCST THINKING ON TRACK. INITIAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN ERN MT
AND FAR NW ND IN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND DEVELOP SOUTH AS IT MOVES
INTO WRN ND AND THEN INTO CNTRL ND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH WIND POTENTIAL AS IT
MOVES INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EXACTLY
WHERE/WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS AS USUAL UNCERTAIN. MAIN EMPHASIS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SEEMS TO TRANSITION A BIT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WIND
EVENT THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO CNTRL/SRN MN. PREV FCST WAS PRETTY
GOOD WITH THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEEKS NEEDED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
END MONDAY MORNING IN ERN ND AND IN NW MN IN THE AFTN AS SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
ON TUESDAY GENERALLY DRY....BUT ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE NRN FCST AREA WILL BRING ISOLD CHC
OF STORMS. BETTER CHANCE COMES WEDNESDAY AS NEXT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
NORTHAMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA
AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKE STATES.
THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND
GFS. UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AFTER A SHORT WAVE DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON FRI NIGHT/SAT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ABOUT TWO DEGREES FOR THU. LITTLE CHANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT AND HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR SUN
COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT NOT LONG LIVED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
929 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL MOUNTRAIL...WARD...RENVILLE.....
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...ROLETTE AND PIERCE COUNTIES FROM TORNADO
WATCH 324.
FOCUS IS TURNING BACK TO MONTANA AGAIN AS ANOTHER SUPERCELL JUST
EAST OF MILES CITY AS OF 225 UTC IS RAPIDLY PROPAGATING EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE STORM WILL START TURNING RIGHT
AND MISS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WILLIAMS...DIVIDE AND BURKE
COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AS OF 2345 UTC...ANVIL SHADING APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR NOW.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL ACROSS BOWMAN COUNTY
WHICH IS IN THE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 21-22 UTC HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION....WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH TWO POTENTIAL
LINES...ONE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE US
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND A SECOND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
ANVIL SHADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LIFTING MID
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
INCREASED POPS AS CONFIDENCE THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS INCREASED. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
IN FACT...CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH QUICKLY DROPS TO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A RATHER STRONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SET UP FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WOULD IMAGINE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FEATURE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND TRACK SOME
SORT OF STRONGER MCS INTO SE ND. CURRENT HRRR DEPICTS THIS
SCENARIO...WITH A BOW TYPE FEATURE TRACKING INTO SE ND OR POSSIBLY
JUST SOUTH OF THIS FA. TO THE NORTH...INTO THE MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE NEAR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER THESE REPORTS WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE
AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.
THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT...BUT TRACK SOUTH OF THIS
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
FCST THINKING ON TRACK. INITIAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN ERN MT
AND FAR NW ND IN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND DEVELOP SOUTH AS IT MOVES
INTO WRN ND AND THEN INTO CNTRL ND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH WIND POTENTIAL AS IT
MOVES INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EXACTLY
WHERE/WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS AS USUAL UNCERTAIN. MAIN EMPHASIS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SEEMS TO TRANSITION A BIT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WIND
EVENT THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO CNTRL/SRN MN. PREV FCST WAS PRETTY
GOOD WITH THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEEKS NEEDED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
END MONDAY MORNING IN ERN ND AND IN NW MN IN THE AFTN AS SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
ON TUESDAY GENERALLY DRY....BUT ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE NRN FCST AREA WILL BRING ISOLD CHC
OF STORMS. BETTER CHANCE COMES WEDNESDAY AS NEXT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
NORTHAMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA
AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKE STATES.
THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND
GFS. UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AFTER A SHORT WAVE DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON FRI NIGHT/SAT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ABOUT TWO DEGREES FOR THU. LITTLE CHANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT AND HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR SUN
COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT NOT LONG LIVED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WILLIAMS...DIVIDE AND BURKE
COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AS OF 2345 UTC...ANVIL SHADING APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR NOW.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL ACROSS BOWMAN COUNTY
WHICH IS IN THE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 21-22 UTC HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION....WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH TWO POTENTIAL
LINES...ONE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE US
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND A SECOND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
ANVIL SHADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR
STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LIFTING MID MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1142 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWS FOR
TONIGHT PER LATEST SFC OBS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ADJUSTED SKY
GRIDS USING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WV. UPPER CLOUDS FROM A DYING MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL KY WILL SPREAD EAST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT. REMOVED ALL POPS OVERNIGHT PER RADAR AND LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING NO PCPN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LESS ACTIVITY THERE DUE TO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. DID ELECT TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE MORNING...AS NEAR TERM
MODELS INDICATING POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO
MAKE ITS WAY/SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO
CHANCE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BULK OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z...WITH AN
OVERALL LULL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z...IN ANY AREAS THAT AREA ABLE TO
CLEAR...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV.
POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD
CREATE ISOLD SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM...12Z-
20Z TIME PERIOD...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR FOG TONIGHT IN
QUESTION. DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY DIFFER
FROM FORECAST.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LESS ACTIVITY THERE DUE TO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. DID ELECT TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE MORNING...AS NEAR TERM
MODELS INDICATING POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO
MAKE ITS WAY/SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO
CHANCE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BULK OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z...WITH AN
OVERALL LULL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z...IN ANY AREAS THAT AREA ABLE TO
CLEAR...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV.
POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD
CREATE ISOLD SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM...12Z-
20Z TIME PERIOD...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR FOG TONIGHT IN
QUESTION. DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY DIFFER
FROM FORECAST.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/SL
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
734 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR. TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG FOR QUITE A WHILE. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN
INDIANA/ARMSTRONG COS WILL SLIDE INTO THE SWRN COS IN A BIT.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONFLICT SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND RUC WHICH PLAY UP THAT THE WEAK SHOWERS WITH BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL START TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ THIS EVENING. THE LINE IS FAIRLY STEADY STATE...AND CAPES ARE
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT IN THE SE THAN CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...WE ARE
LOSING THE SUN. SCT SHRA WILL STILL BE MENTIONED FOR THE NEXT
HR/TWO IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY OR BETTER POPS IN
THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS SLOWLY DROP AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT.
SHOULD GET MORE COMFORTABLE TOWARD MORNING. BRIGHTER TOO. EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE WRN MTNS WHERE THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE WIND AND HIGH LLVL
MSTR MAY CREATE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL JUST MAKE
IT A BIT MORE CLOUDY THERE LATE TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE AND HIGH PW AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT A COOLER DRIER DAY ON THE EDGE OF THE BIG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THIS TIME SUSPECT RETURN FLOW AND SURGE
HIGH PW AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION MONDAY
UNTIL AT LEAST DINNERTIME. RELATIVELY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY AS THE MOISTURE AND HEAT SURGE BACK IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI. A HOT 594DM 500MB UPPER RIDGE
EXTENING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO PA MON NIGHT/TUE. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON WITH INCREASING LLJET SHOULD KICK
OFF DECENT MCS TO OUR NW MON NIGHT...WHICH COULD SLIDE INTO NW
MTNS BY SUNRISE TUE. DECENT W/NW FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH
NOTABLE CAPE ON TUE /AS TEMPS SURGE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/ COULD BRING ROUND OF TSTMS AND SCT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS CWA. SETUP IS GOOD FOR A
NW FLOW EVENT...THOUGH LOW CENTERED A BIT FAR TO OUR NORTH AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD DAMPEN HEATING. BUT
FOR NOW...SPC HAS MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TUE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOMETHING WE HAVEN/T SEEN HERE FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE A
WHILE...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER. TEMPS SETTLE BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD FOR LATE WEEK AS SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES RUN OVERHEAD...BRINGING BACK DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FOR LATE WEEK AND ESP NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE FOR KJST...KAOO...KMDT AND AND KLNS FOR
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. PATCHY
MVFR WITH OVERNIGHT FOG/HAZE IS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE WEST. THIS COULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER HUMID AIR
COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR AFTER SOME PATCHY AM MVFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM/ROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1048 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM EDT UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY DECLINED...WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING...MOSTLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT VALUES FROM AREAS WITH THUNDER STORMS WERE
MUCH COOLER THAN FORECAST...AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE RESIDUAL ANVIL CIRRUS HAS CREATED SOME HIGH
OVERCAST. THUNDERSTORMS AT ASHEVILLE AND HICKORY AIRPORTS HAVE
MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HAVE INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG IN THE MORNING AT THOSE LOCATIONS.
730 PM EDT UPDATE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS ERUPTED NEAR
ASHVEILLE AND A LINE OF THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE CROSSING INTO THE CWA
FROM THE NORTH IN THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE STORM NEAR
ASHEVILLE PEAKING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE STORMS TO THE
NORTH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS ARE ON TRACK.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FIRED UP ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. SOME CUMULUS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS THE ONLY INDICATION OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EVIDENT IN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS SUFFICIENT TO HOLD BACK CONVECTION IN LIGHT OF A
LACK OF AN IMMEDIATE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM. CAMS HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY INTENSE...NOR WIDESPREAD.
LATEST UPDATE FOR POPS REFLECT SUBDUED PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK...AND ONLY MADE A SMALL TWEAK THERE.
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD/ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
FAVORING AT LEAST A PARTIAL INTRUSION OVERNIGHT. THE DETAILS OF
SUCH ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS A FRONTAL MCS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY ADVECTING ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY OF TN...INTO
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ORIGIN REGIONS OF THIS MCS IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NC. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL PULSE STORMS...WITH POPS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE MCS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT...THE FCST WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW SHOWERS BROKE CONTAINMENT AS THE FRONT/MCS SLIDES IN TONIGHT.
THIS IS ALL PREDICATED THAT THE MCS SURVIVES THE TRIP ACROSS THE
MTNS...WHICH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WONT. INITIALLY CONVECTION
COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE AS IT ENTERS THE MTNS FROM THE WNW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE PATTERN ON MONDAY FEATURES THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD WHILE THE OLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE STALLED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ADVECTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE BROAD
BERMUDA SFC HIGH PREVAILS. THIS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE WILL YIELD A DRY/HOT/HUMID FCST FOR THE LOW
TERRAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FEATURED OVER THE MTNS WHERE ANY
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT
INDICES WILL APPROACH/EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS TO MIXING OF DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL TOP ON IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT REGIONS
WITH HIGHS FIRMLY IN THE 80S OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
SRN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL PERSIST. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
FCST AREA...SLIGHT TROUGHING COULD OCCUR AS FAR SWD AS THE
CAROLINAS...BUT THIS IS REALLY ONLY INDICATED BY THE GFS. ONCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY DIES DOWN MON EVENING WE SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THE
RAMP-UP WITH HEATING ON TUE. SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL PROBABLY KEEP
THE PIEDMONT DRY TUE BUT A CHANCE RETURNS OVER THE MTNS.
INTERESTINGLY THE NAM BRINGS THE SEA BREEZE AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SRN
SC/GA ZONES NEAR SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THIS TO
REFLECT IT IN THE FCST. THIS COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
OVERCOME A WEAK CAP.
WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MAKING SWD PROGRESS ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THRU THE DAY IT IS UNLIKELY TO ENCROACH ON OUR AREA UNTIL
WED AT THE EARLIEST. NAM SHOWS IT MARCHING SWD OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
BUT IT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH IT WOULD MORE LIKELY STALL...BEFORE
PERHAPS ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE INCUMBENT
HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG FOR THE FRONT THOUGH...AND IT WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA WED. PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
EAST OF THE MTNS SO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE INCLUDED ACRS THE CWFA.
VERTICAL PROFILES HAVE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT THAT ISOLATED PULSE
STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHOSE
BLENDS OF T/TD GUIDANCE BASED ON THOSE THAT VERIFIED BEST WITH THE
HOT CONDITIONS LAST WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS WILL
AFFECT TD/S BUT THE BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE REFLECTS LITTLE OF THIS.
PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WILL SEE HEAT INDICES PEAK NEAR 105
BOTH DAYS...AND ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL ADD EXCESSIVE
HEAT WORDING TO THE HWO FOR WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER TROFFING OVER SE CANADA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER WHILE MULTIPLE LOBES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLE BY TO OUR NORTH. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK LOWS BEING GENERATED OVER THE PLAINS AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WITH
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOSTLY WASHING OUT AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHWARD.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY WITH IT BEING MORE PRONOUNCED ON SAT AND SUN AS THE LOWS
GENERATED APPEAR TO BE MORE ORGANIZED. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
ENDING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...IF NOT JUST ABOVE...BY DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKTAF 000
TTAA00 KCAE 211748
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE AERODROME IN VA AND NC ARE
MOVING SOUTHWARD BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KCLT IN SEVERE
FORM...THOUGH WEAKENED REMNANTS MAY REACH THE VICINITY AROUND 3Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE KAVL AREA
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT RAIN IN THE KAVL AREA...AND ANY OTHER AREAS
RECEIVING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD. LEFT FG/BR OUT OF KHKY FOR THE TIME
BEING AS NO RECENT RAIN HAS FALLEN THERE. REMNANTS FROM A LINE OF
STORMS IN VA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KAVL TO KHKY.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WJM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG/WJM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKNRT 212042
TTAA00 KGSP DDHHMM
ZCZC GSPWRKNRT 000
TTAA00 KCAE 211845
1930 PM EDT UPDATE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS ERUPTED NEAR
ASHVILLE AND A LINE OF THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE CROSSING INTO THE CWA
FROM THE NORTH IN THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE STORM NEAR
ASHVILLE PEAKING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE STORMS TO THE
NORTH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS ARE ON TRACK.
1630 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FIRED UP ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. SOME CUMULUS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS THE ONLY INDICATION OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EVIDENT IN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS SUFFICIENT TO HOLD BACK CONVECTION IN LIGHT OF A
LACK OF AN IMMEDIATE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM. CAMS HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY...BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY INTENSE...NOR WIDESPREAD.
LATEST UPDATE FOR POPS REFLECT SUBDUED PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK...AND ONLY MADE A SMALL TWEAK THERE.
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD/ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
FAVORING AT LEAST A PARTIAL INTRUSION OVERNIGHT. THE DETAILS OF
SUCH ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS A FRONTAL MCS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY ADVECTING ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY OF TN...INTO
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS PLACED THE
ORIGIN REGIONS OF THIS MCS IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NC. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL PULSE STORMS...WITH POPS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE MCS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT...THE FCST WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW SHOWERS BROKE CONTAINMENT AS THE FRONT/MCS SLIDES IN TONIGHT.
THIS IS ALL PREDICATED THAT THE MCS SURVIVES THE TRIP ACROSS THE
MTNS...WHICH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WONT. INITIALLY CONVECTION
COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE AS IT ENTERS THE MTNS FROM THE WNW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE PATTERN ON MONDAY FEATURES THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD WHILE THE OLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE STALLED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ADVECTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE BROAD
BERMUDA SFC HIGH PREVAILS. THIS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE WILL YIELD A DRY/HOT/HUMID FCST FOR THE LOW
TERRAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FEATURED OVER THE MTNS WHERE ANY
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT
INDICES WILL APPROACH/EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS TO MIXING OF DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL TOP ON IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT REGIONS
WITH HIGHS FIRMLY IN THE 80S OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
SRN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL PERSIST. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
FCST AREA...SLIGHT TROUGHING COULD OCCUR AS FAR SWD AS THE
CAROLINAS...BUT THIS IS REALLY ONLY INDICATED BY THE GFS. ONCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY DIES DOWN MON EVENING WE SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THE
RAMP-UP WITH HEATING ON TUE. SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL PROBABLY KEEP
THE PIEDMONT DRY TUE BUT A CHANCE RETURNS OVER THE MTNS.
INTERESTINGLY THE NAM BRINGS THE SEA BREEZE AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SRN
SC/GA ZONES NEAR SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THIS TO
REFLECT IT IN THE FCST. THIS COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
OVERCOME A WEAK CAP.
WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MAKING SWD PROGRESS ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THRU THE DAY IT IS UNLIKELY TO ENCROACH ON OUR AREA UNTIL
WED AT THE EARLIEST. NAM SHOWS IT MARCHING SWD OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
BUT IT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH IT WOULD MORE LIKELY STALL...BEFORE
PERHAPS ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE INCUMBENT
HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG FOR THE FRONT THOUGH...AND IT WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA WED. PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
EAST OF THE MTNS SO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE INCLUDED ACRS THE CWFA.
VERTICAL PROFILES HAVE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT THAT ISOLATED PULSE
STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHOSE
BLENDS OF T/TD GUIDANCE BASED ON THOSE THAT VERIFIED BEST WITH THE
HOT CONDITIONS LAST WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS WILL
AFFECT TD/S BUT THE BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE REFLECTS LITTLE OF THIS.
PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WILL SEE HEAT INDICES PEAK NEAR 105
BOTH DAYS...AND ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL ADD EXCESSIVE
HEAT WORDING TO THE HWO FOR WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER TROFFING OVER SE CANADA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER WHILE MULTIPLE LOBES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLE BY TO OUR NORTH. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK LOWS BEING GENERATED OVER THE PLAINS AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WITH
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOSTLY WASHING OUT AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHWARD.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY WITH IT BEING MORE PRONOUNCED ON SAT AND SUN AS THE LOWS
GENERATED APPEAR TO BE MORE ORGANIZED. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
ENDING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...IF NOT JUST ABOVE...BY DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKTAF 000
TTAA00 KCAE 211748
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE AERODROME IN VA AND NC ARE
MOVING SOUTHWARD BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KCLT IN SEVERE
FORM...THOUGH WEAKENED REMNANTS MAY REACH THE VICINITY AROUND 3Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE KAVL AREA
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT RAIN IN THE KAVL AREA...AND ANY OTHER AREAS
RECEIVING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD. LEFT FG/BR OUT OF KHKY FOR THE TIME
BEING AS NO RECENT RAIN HAS FALLEN THERE. REMNANTS FROM A LINE OF
STORMS IN VA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KAVL TO KHKY.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 16%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 16%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 97% LOW 16%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 16%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 16%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 16%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WJM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG/WJM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID SOUTH REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. 00Z WRF AND
LATEST HRRR INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN OVERNIGHT FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND TO
ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 DEGREES AROUND/AFTER 12 PM MONDAY.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
BLOW OFF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S SO
IN PEAKS OF SUNSHINE...HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH NEAR 105
DEGREES. WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.
MEANWHILE...SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THEM BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING A WET
MICROBURST. WILL KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FURTHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE AROUND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S PRETTY EASILY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA THAT COULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE
UP. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TAD. THUS ALLOWING HEAT INDICES
TO STAY BELOW 15 DEGREES BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS.
EACH DAY THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE GETS A LITTLE WEAKER. MODELS
ARE SHOWING MORE AND MORE CONVECTION FIRING UP ESPECIALLY IN THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA AND AN UPPER TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FEEL MORE PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. W/SW WINDS AT
10-12 KTS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW...AROUND 5KT OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY OUR
NORTHERN PLATEAU THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
BY THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...HRRR SEEMS TO BE LEANING
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH EVOKES AN INCREASE IN MRH LEVELS
TOWARD 12Z ALONG WITH A RESURGENCE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL
ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU. WILL UTILIZE ISC AND LEAVE POPS OUT
DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME AS THE LATENIGHT REDEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN.
OTW...WARM HUMID NIGHT IN STORE. PATCHY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED BUT
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AOA THE 1-3SM RANGE. THEREFORE...NO FOG
INCLUSION. LOW TEMPS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
GRID MODIFICATION WILL INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN THE CHC CATEGORY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLATEAU. WILL ALSO BOOST THE QPF A TOUCH.
PCLDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR THE DURATION AS PLEANTY OF CIRRUS
BLOWOFF ABOUNDS.
UPCOMING UPDATE SHOULD TAKE OUT THE AFT WORDING. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
MCS WITHIN NW FLOW WILL SEND STORMS ACROSS GENERALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOL
TO SCT AND VCNTY WILL BE UTILIZED...INITIALLY...FOR THE CSV AREA.
AFT 03Z...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS
NEAR CSV. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.
SCT LOW LEVEL CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE. THEREFORE...LESS IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER HRRR MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FOR
THAT AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT BIGGER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST IN
CURRENT WATCH AREA. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE MEG AREA...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO THE REST
OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 596 DM. BY THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...BRINGING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES WHILE
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 94 73 96 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 73 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
MCS WITHIN NW FLOW WILL SEND STORMS ACROSS GENERALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOL
TO SCT AND VCNTY WILL BE UTILIZED...INITIALLY...FOR THE CSV AREA.
AFT 03Z...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS
NEAR CSV. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.
SCT LOW LEVEL CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE. THEREFORE...LESS IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER HRRR MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FOR
THAT AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT BIGGER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST IN
CURRENT WATCH AREA. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE MEG AREA...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO THE REST
OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 596 DM. BY THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...BRINGING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES WHILE
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 94 73 96 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 73 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
902 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING... WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS WILLIAMSON/BASTROP/CALDWELL COUNTIES. COULD SEE ONE OR TWO
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES /AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER/ THIS EVENING BUT WITH 00Z RAOBS
AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ANTICIPATE CONTINUED WEAKENING AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES TRENDS WELL... AND
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONVECTION NEAR KUTS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. OVERALL NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE IN CONVECTION COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. TOMORROW WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS PRECIP WATER VALUES
DROP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND UPPER LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. MAY SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
KUTS/KCXO AND MAYBE KLBX BUT OTHERWISE THINK VFR SCT STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE. MAY GET SOME GUSTS TO 18-20KTS TOMORROW BUT OVERALL
THINK WINDS STAY AROUND 10 KTS FROM SE.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY A COUPLE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE IS
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON`S INLAND POPS INTO A 20% TO 30% RANGE. ALSO SHOULD
KEEP OUR EYES ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STORMS CURRENTLY SURGING TO THE
NORTH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUNS APPEAR
TO BE PICKING THIS ACTIVITY UP...AND THEY KEEP IT ALL TO OUR WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOME OF OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER. APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WE WILL PROBABLY BE OK WITH GOING
WITH POPS AROUND 20%. BY NEXT WEEKEND... IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST COULD HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO MAYBE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AND THIS FEATURE COULD
BECOME OUR AREA`S NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
42
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT WOULD BE MAINLY DRY GIVEN
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LOWER DECK HAVING MOSTLY
THINNED OUT WITH WIND PARALLEL LINES OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. RADAR RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AROUND PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CHANCES OF TSTRMS
OCCURRING AT ANY TAF SITE FAIRLY LOW. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT NW
SITES FOR NOW...FROM KIAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE EXISTING CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD DROP BOUNDARIES LEADING TO NEW CONVECTION. WILL WATCH RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADD TSTRMS TO TAFS IF NEEDED. REMAINDER
OF TAF FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE CLOSELY AS TONIGHTS PATTERN AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THIS WOULD
IMPLY MVFR CIGS FROM CXO ON NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...AND
MAINLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR EVEN AT SOUTHERN SITES...KIAH ON SOUTH...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY DEEPER MOIST LAYER THAN OCCURED LAST
NIGHT. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 75 91 75 / 20 10 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 0 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 87 80 87 79 / 10 10 0 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION NEAR KUTS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. OVERALL NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE IN CONVECTION COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. TOMORROW WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS PRECIP WATER VALUES
DROP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND UPPER LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. MAY SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
KUTS/KCXO AND MAYBE KLBX BUT OTHERWISE THINK VFR SCT STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE. MAY GET SOME GUSTS TO 18-20KTS TOMORROW BUT OVERALL
THINK WINDS STAY AROUND 10 KTS FROM SE.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY A COUPLE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE IS
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON`S INLAND POPS INTO A 20% TO 30% RANGE. ALSO SHOULD
KEEP OUR EYES ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STORMS CURRENTLY SURGING TO THE
NORTH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUNS APPEAR
TO BE PICKING THIS ACTIVITY UP...AND THEY KEEP IT ALL TO OUR WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOME OF OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER. APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WE WILL PROBABLY BE OK WITH GOING
WITH POPS AROUND 20%. BY NEXT WEEKEND... IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST COULD HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO MAYBE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AND THIS FEATURE COULD
BECOME OUR AREA`S NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
42
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT WOULD BE MAINLY DRY GIVEN
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LOWER DECK HAVING MOSTLY
THINNED OUT WITH WIND PARALLEL LINES OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. RADAR RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AROUND PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CHANCES OF TSTRMS
OCCURRING AT ANY TAF SITE FAIRLY LOW. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT NW
SITES FOR NOW...FROM KIAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE EXISTING CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD DROP BOUNDARIES LEADING TO NEW CONVECTION. WILL WATCH RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADD TSTRMS TO TAFS IF NEEDED. REMAINDER
OF TAF FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE CLOSELY AS TONIGHTS PATTERN AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THIS WOULD
IMPLY MVFR CIGS FROM CXO ON NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...AND
MAINLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR EVEN AT SOUTHERN SITES...KIAH ON SOUTH...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY DEEPER MOIST LAYER THAN OCCURED LAST
NIGHT. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 75 91 75 / 20 10 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 0 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 80 87 79 / 10 10 0 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1012 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE LATE THIS EVENING. MAIN AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE SITUATED FROM NE TN INTO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. FEW
SHOWERS...SOME THUNDER FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT
THESE TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN
CWA TIL MIDNIGHT.
THINK THE SW CWA WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS A LITTLE
LONGER...BUT OVERALL DRY WX EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE SW DUE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
UPSTREAM....AREA OF STORMS FROM IND-MT VERNON IL ARE MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW. LATEST HRRR AND WRF
FAVORING SOMETHING OVER ERN KY TO OHIO...THOUGH SOME RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT MAY LIMIT SE ADVANCE.
ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT
OF STARTING TO YIELD EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE START
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PEAK WITH THE
CROSSING OF AN 850 MB WARM FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP ACT AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THOSE REALIZED
TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO NEARLY
MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ON TUESDAY COLD FRONT WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOWED STRONG Q-V FORCING
ALONG WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY
WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE ONLY LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM ANY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING MAY LIMIT HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTING IN AT MID LEVELS WHICH MAY CAP GROWTH OF
STORMS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. BUFKIT IS FAVORING HE CAP WHICH WOULD
MEAN LESS STORMS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GFS POSITION OF THE FRONT IS FAVORED WHICH PLACES THE BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ON TO
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
500 MB ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THURSDAY THEN BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN
THE EAST WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING AN MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY DAYS THAT WILL HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM TRI-DAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. ANOTHER STORM SITUATED NORTHWEST OF HSP WILL
BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LWB GREENBRIER AIRPORT SO ONLY VCTS FOR AN
HOUR HERE.
REST OF THE NIGHT THE MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY. ISSUE WILL BE IF
AMPLE CLEARING TAKES PLACE TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION. THINK LWB/BCB
ESPECIALLY SHOULD SEE IFR FOG BY MORNING...WITH OTHERS STAYING
MVFR/VFR...WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS AT LWB/BLF.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER FOG LIFTS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO FORM UPSTREAM OVER OHIO/WV/KY MOVING INTO THE MTNS
IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE VCTS AT BLF/LWB/BCB...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH FOR FURTHER EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE CAP STRENGTH OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AND HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A LINGERING
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA AND ACT AS A STRONGER FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
810 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT STILL HAVE MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG IN THE AREA. STORMS OUT OF THE WATCH...SO THE WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. STORMS OVER ROCKINGHAM/STOKES TO
WILKES SLIDE SE THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT A
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING TREND OVERALL.
UPSTREAM....AREA OF STORMS FROM IND-MT VERNON IL ARE MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW. LATEST HRRR AND WRF
FAVORING SOMETHING OVER ERN KY TO OHIO...THOUGH SOME RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT MAY LIMIT SE ADVANCE.
ADDED FOG WITH RAIN IN THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS START TO CLEAR OUT THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF
THE MTNS AFTER 3 AM.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
STARTING TO YIELD EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE START OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PEAK WITH THE CROSSING OF
AN 850 MB WARM FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO NEARLY MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ON TUESDAY COLD FRONT WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOWED STRONG Q-V FORCING
ALONG WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY
WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE ONLY LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM ANY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING MAY LIMIT HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTING IN AT MID LEVELS WHICH MAY CAP GROWTH OF
STORMS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. BUFKIT IS FAVORING HE CAP WHICH WOULD
MEAN LESS STORMS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GFS POSITION OF THE FRONT IS FAVORED WHICH PLACES THE BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ON TO
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
500 MB ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THURSDAY THEN BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN
THE EAST WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING AN MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY DAYS THAT WILL HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM TRI-DAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. ANOTHER STORM SITUATED NORTHWEST OF HSP WILL
BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LWB GREENBRIER AIRPORT SO ONLY VCTS FOR AN
HOUR HERE.
REST OF THE NIGHT THE MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY. ISSUE WILL BE IF
AMPLE CLEARING TAKES PLACE TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION. THINK LWB/BCB
ESPECIALLY SHOULD SEE IFR FOG BY MORNING...WITH OTHERS STAYING
MVFR/VFR...WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS AT LWB/BLF.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER FOG LIFTS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO FORM UPSTREAM OVER OHIO/WV/KY MOVING INTO THE MTNS
IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE VCTS AT BLF/LWB/BCB...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH FOR FURTHER EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE CAP STRENGTH OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AND HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A LINGERING
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA AND ACT AS A STRONGER FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PORTLAND OR
730 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP MARINE PUSH
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SOME
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...AND PREVENTING INLAND TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
INTO THE 80S. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL WARMING AND CLEARING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WARMING INTO THE 90S.
&&
.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR A COUPLE ROGUE SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR SAUVIE
ISLAND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE LIKELY GETTING A LITTLE EXTRA
LIFT FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SEA BREEZE PUSHING
UP THE COLUMBIA. 00Z SALEM SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY WEAK CAP NEAR 800
MB WHICH THIS LIFT MAY HAVE HELPED OVERCOME. TOPS ON KRTX DOPPLER
RADAR APPEAR TO BE 20-25 KFT...WHICH IN THIS WARM AIR MASS IS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. BOTTOM LINE IS TO NOT BE SURPRISED BY
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER. WEAGLE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE SW WASHINGTON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW NEAR 44N 139W. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW TONIGHT. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
COMBINED WITH ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A DECENT MARINE PUSH LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT MARINE STRATUS TO MOVE
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE OF A MARINE INTRUSION TONIGHT.
WITH MORE MARINE CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATH AS THE CURRENT ONE EXCEPT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. THE
MORE NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE LOW WILL MAKE IT HAVE LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SALEM. THE LOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AGAIN MONDAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE
SPARSE AND THIN SOUTH OF SALEM. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
DEEP PUSH FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WEAK RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE COAST WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MARINE CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING THAT WILL KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S WED
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. TJ
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS MODELS REMAIN IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ZONAL AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON
OR SOUTHERN B.C. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. IMPACTS
WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL FOR OUR AREA...BUT EXPECT A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER AND SOME MID CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT TODAY WITH THE STRONG
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH H5 HEIGHTS ABOVE 5940 METERS...CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT H8
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 DEGREE C RANGE FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH THE GFS REMAINING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE. AS A MEASURE OF CONFIDENCE...THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM
ALL MAINTAIN THE 5820 M H5 CONTOUR WELL NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
IN EITHER WASHINGTON OR SOUTHERN B.C. FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST HOW STRONG THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE...WHERE IT IS CENTERED...AND
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS....BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT IN TIME.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THAT IT WILL BE VERY HOT BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN
QUITE WARM WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THIS PATTERN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY HOT WEATHER...PERHAPS THE
HOTTEST STRETCH OF DAYS SEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS WITH A FEW
DAYS OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM SW...BUT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS NOW INCREASING...AS WINDS ARE NOW
W TO SW ALONG THE COAST. LOW STRATUS NOW PUSHING UP THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING N THIS EVENING. THIS STRATUS
WILL RISE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO MON AM. AT SAME
TIME...IT WILL BE PUSHING WELL INLAND LATER TONIGHT...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS FROM COAST RANGE TO CASCADES BY 15Z MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT. REMAINS VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH COOLER
MARINE AIR INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CIGS 1500 TO 2000 FT
AFTER 10Z...PERSISTING WELL INTO MON AM. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER NE PAC REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MON AS A
DYING UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE SLOWLY DRIFT N. WINDS WILL REMAIN
15 KT OR LESS. SEAS DOMINATED BY SWELL RATHER THAN WIND WAVES.
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD A BIT OVER NE PAC WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES
SITS OVER NW CALIF...BUT GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN WEAK. SO WINDS
LOOK TO STAY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...BUT MAY
REACH 20 KT AT TIMES FAR S NEAR FLORENCE IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
ROCKEY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend looks dry, with less wind and a slight warming trend.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the
beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over
the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal
for this time of year. Hot temperatures are expected by the end
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night: Satellite reveals a weak trof along
the coast and influx of mid and high level moisture under broad
southwesterly flow. A SW to NE ribbon of instability stretches
from south-central Oregon to Missoula, MT where were are seeing
scattered thunderstorms. Per latest HRRR and deterministic models,
this should remain nearly stationary...residing just south of my
Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie zones. We are seeing numerous weak
echoes north of this instability which is bringing passing virga
and sprinkles. There is still a small chance for an isolated
thunderstorm near the Cascade Crest with RUC13 data showing up to
800 J/kg sb cape along and west of the CAPE.
The coastal shortwave will track inland on Monday and along the
International Border Monday night. Surface based instability
Monday afternoon will keep a small risk for thunderstorms in the
Cascades then transition toward a nocturnal shower or thunderstorm
event as the wave tracks along the Canadian Border. This is no
slam dunk by any means but this is where models agree on the best
forcing. The NAM is a bit deeper with this wave but has little
support from the SREF. Nonetheless...we will need to keep an eye
on trends as the deeper shortwave could allow eLevated convection
possible into far southeast as well.
Temperatures the next 48 hours will remain mild with highs in the
70s to 80s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Winds will be
light. /sb
Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow will be across the
region with a couple of weak short wave disturbances moving
through southern B.C. Monday night/Tuesday, again on Thursday,
with weak riding on Wednesday in between systems. The models are
generating some Pacific moisture with both of these waves and that
will help to destabilize the atmosphere late in the day. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and just south of the
Canadian border...and mainly tied to the higher terrain where up-
sloping flow will give a little boost to the lifting process. It
doesn`t look like any of these showers or thunderstorms will be
particularly strong, but enough moisture will be available for
brief very heavy showers at times. Otherwise sunny and warm with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Friday and through the weekend a strong ridge of high pressure
will build into the west and will turn the weather very hot, very
dry and sunny into the first part of next week. As was mentioned
in previous discussions it`s gonna be a hot one. 850 mb temps
increase to 22-23C Friday and up to 28-30C by Sunday. This will
result in temps in the 90s Friday...mid 90s to just above 100 on
Saturday and scorching on Sunday with highs in the upper 90s to
around 105-107, this is about 20 degrees above normal. In addition
relative humidity will drop into the teens with several areas
drying out into the single digits...and poor recoveries on mid
slopes and ridges. The fuels that carry fire are already drier
then average and the hot dry conditions will dry the fuels out
further...to historic levels. Luckily not much wind is expected
under the ridge. Looking further out into the following week for
the last few days of June it doesn`t look like the ridge will have
any tendency to break down and the temperatures will remain just
as hot if not a few degrees hotter. I may have mentioned this
earlier in this discussion, but it`s gonna be hot. Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Middle and high clouds associated with a weak weather
disturbance moving up from the south will pass over the aviation
area today. A few midlevel cells will bring the potential for
isolated sprinkles but little in the way of precipitation.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Cascade Crest
and also across NE Oregon through 03z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop again during peak heating Monday,
mainly over the higher terrain. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 82 56 82 56 87 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 81 54 81 52 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 0
Pullman 48 79 50 79 48 84 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 58 86 59 87 57 92 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 52 84 53 85 53 90 / 10 10 20 20 10 10
Sandpoint 46 80 49 80 48 85 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 50 79 51 80 49 85 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
Moses Lake 57 87 56 87 57 92 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 64 85 62 89 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Omak 55 86 55 88 56 92 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
857 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
I DON/T HAVE MUCH MORE INSIGHT INTO TOMORROW/S SEVERE POTENTIAL
BEYOND THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION BELOW. TONIGHT LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
SUNRISE TO MAYBE 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR IS PROVIDING MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE SCENARIO OUTLINED BELOW. THAT IS...WE/LL SEE A
BOW ECHO/DERECHO BLOW IN HERE WEST OF MADISON AROUND 8
AM...REACHING MILWAUKEE TOWARD LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER. THE
HRRR SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE A LINE OF STORMS ORIENTED MORE
EAST/WEST LIGHT UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE BLOW...WITH
THE BOW MOVING EAST AND INGESTING THESE STORMS. THIS COULD RAISE
THE THREAT FOR SOME TORNADO SPIN-UPS ALONG THAT INTERFACE.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT KIND OF DETAIL IS A STRETCH...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
SO WE HAVE THE WRFNMM/ARW/HRRR SHOWING A BOW IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE CALM PERIOD IN ITS WAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WE/LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF WE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON TO GET MORE STORMS TO LIGHT UP ON THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 8 AND
11 AM MONDAY THAT COULD HAVE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN AND LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORMS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THAT MAY OCCUR JUST
EAST OF MADISON...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR THAT KIND OF DETAIL
RIGHT NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BEACHES...
WILL PUT OUT A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR
THE BEACHES OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WAVES WILL BE REACHING 4 TO 6
FEET UP THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE AREA
INTO MID EVENING...WITH MORE MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. MAY SEE LIGHT FOG OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING AND SEVERITY OF MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THROUGH THE REGION. WRF/NMM AND
WRF/ARW MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF STRONG/SEVERE BOW ECHO CONVECTION MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z MONDAY.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE AREA DURING THAT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET
ALSO POINTS INTO THE AREA...WITH A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AIDING
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR THE MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS...WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH LOW LEVEL JET/WAA
SHOULD OVERCOME STRONG CAP TO TAP ELEVATED CAPE. ADDED SEVERE
WORDING WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD...GIVEN BOW ECHO LOOK TO WRF/NMM/ARW OUTPUT
AND EXPECTED BULK SHEAR/ELEVATED CAPE.
COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...EXITING THE FAR EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING CAN
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE
SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING
OCCURS...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND
ADJUSTED MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
COLD FROPA EXPECTED EARLY MON EVENING WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS OVER
SRN WI. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS OVER
NRN IL WITH THE FROPA MON EVE. THE SVR MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE MON AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY
LIMIT HOW UNSTABLE THE AREA CAN GET...THUS MORE TSTORM
ORGANIZATION TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FROPA. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
SOME DESTABILIZATION AND RESULTANT TSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SO
SVR STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN TUE AM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
570 DM THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C STILL
EXPECTED...THUS ANOTHER WARM SUMMER DAY FORECAST. FOR WED...THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF A W-E WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH...THAT IS INITIATED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN BRING THE WAVE INTO SRN WI WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS WHILE THE ECMWF MAINLY KEEPS IT TO THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS THE BETTER MODEL AND DO NOT SEE THE UPPER
WAVE BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP THE SFC WAVE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NAM AND CANADIAN. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE A NWD BIAS TO LARGE QPF
AREAS. THUS WENT WITH LOWER POPS LATE TUE NT AND WED. WITH LESS
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80F INLAND LOOKS GOOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
OVERALL LIKE THE DRIER LOOK TO THE ECMWF FOR WED NT AND THU
KEEPING MUCH OF THE W-E SFC TROUGH AND THE AXIS OF RAINFALL TO
THE SOUTH BUT STILL ACCOUNTING FOR SOME PCPN WITH CHANCE POPS.
AFTERWARD A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POSSIBLY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER WAVES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT
WILL EXIST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTH
BY MID EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA
WITH LAKE BREEZE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY EVENING...ALSO BECOMING
LIGHT AND SOUTH BY MID EVENING. ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY SUNSET. AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH MAY
CLIP TAF SITES INTO MID EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST
LATER IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH ANY STORMS.
STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPEND ON IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS AFTER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVE OUT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THEY DO OCCUR LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
PATCHY FOG REMAINS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN PER
AREA WEB CAMERAS. THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...IF WINDS CAN REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH. COOLER AREAS WELL NORTH
OF SHEBOYGAN AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL HAVE DENSE FOG INTO
MONDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PASSING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...SHOULD BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
WAVES UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 18Z MONDAY UNTIL 03Z TUESDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TREND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT BOTH SHOW INCREASING CHANCES AFTER
09Z. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR
SPI AND EXTENDING IN A NW TO SE LINE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SPOTTY, AND MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WE REDUCED POPS THIS EVENING IN ALL AREAS, AND KEPT A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING A STRONG MCS ROLLING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
TONIGHT AND REACHING NORTHERN IL BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. THE RAP SHOWS
INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN OUR WESTERN CWA, WITH A WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT, BUT NOT NEARLY AS VIGOROUS
AS THE HRRR. THE HRRR TRACK SHOWS THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SPC HAS KEPT US
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (5%) NORTH OF PEORIA.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
INSULATING EFFECT OF THE CLOUDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LIGHT FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS, AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MCS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO AND DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO SW HALF OF IL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY. DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY AS CAPES
RISING INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HIGHEST OVER OVER SW CWA
AT MID AFTERNOON. CAPES RISE TO 4000 J/KG AND HIGHER OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MO AND 4000-6000 J/KG FURTHER WEST OVER KS. SOME CIN
RESTRICTING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IL BUT THAT IS
FADING AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM FAR NORTHERN MO INTO FAR SW IL CLOSER TO MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
IL WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENT TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND
THEN TAPERS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FROM I-74 NE. OUR NE CWA FROM I-74
NE TO SEE THERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
RUSHVILLE TO TERRE HAUTE SW REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING WHILE ENHANCED RISK IS FURTHER SW OF CWA OVER CENTRAL MO
INTO SW IL WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. LOCALLY HEAVE RAIN
POSSIBLE SW CWA AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.5-2 INCHES WHILE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MO.
MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NE OF
I-74.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING
THE MORNING AND THEN BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR EVEN SOUTHERN WI. BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN IN MONDAY IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PARTS OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT DROP TOO FAR AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SO PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR TUE AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND ROLLS INTO IL FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THUR THUS CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THUR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THUR AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET INTO THE 95 TO 100 RANGE ON
MONDAY AND WED. THIS WORTH NOTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
AND THEN SHOULD BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE 03Z/10PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. STRONG STORMS HAVE JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE
AIRMASS NORTH OF THE FRONT CONTAINS A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALL THE WAY NORTH TO LACON. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO 1-3F FOR THE TAF SITES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUD COVER, SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
WE WENT WITH A PREVAILING MVFR VIS FROM 11-14Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED TO ERUPT LATER TONIGHT IN A WEST
TO EAST LINE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, INCLUDING SPI. THE HRRR
SHOWS THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, BUT
DISSIPATING AS THE REACH TOWARD CMI. WE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL BUT
PIA FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH
ALL SITES SEEING STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING. WE
INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G25KT ACROSS THE BOARD
TOMORROW, AND SUSTAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
407 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY
FORMING OVER EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
THIS MORNING MOST AREAS AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM
BUFKIT. NCEP HIGH RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HAD INITIALIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION VERY GOOD AND APPEARED TO BB HANDLING STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION WELL. MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF STORMS TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES. COORDINATED SEVERE CHANCES WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN REGARD TO THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
CONCERN WITH ONGOING FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PRIMARY
FORECAST FOCUS ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY IS STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY AS
DRY...COOL LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES APPEAR POISED TO CAUSE IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD
ADVANCE OF LOW LEVEL THETAE BOUNDARY FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE POPS RETURNING ACROSS
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MID MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP RAMP OF S-SW LLJ.
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100
KNOT GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY TAKE THE SHAPE OF ANOTHER MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. PROLONGED
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASING TO 12-13K FT SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL IN ORDER.
SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR DEPENDING ON EXACT ORIENTATION OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE AXIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST
PERHAPS SOUTHERN HALF WITH BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR
SEVERE THREAT. BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY SHIFT SOUTH OF
LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE FACTORS REGARDING UPSTREAM
EVOLUTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE BY FRIDAY AS FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AGAIN. COOLER TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID OPT TO KEEP BROAD BRUSH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING OVER
EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT SBN
FROM 16Z TO 19Z AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CONVECTION
WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM BUFKIT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND OR AFTER 06Z...SO
KEPT THUNDER OUT EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING THUNDER
TONIGHT ON THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONDITIONS INDICATE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS 50 KTS OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY AT SBN
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
A broad upper level ridge continues to extend from the southwestern
US east into the southern plains. An upper level trough was moving
eastward across the northern plains and southern Canada. A broad
band of stronger mid and upper level westerly flow continued on the
north side of the upper level ridge across the central and northern
plains.
As the northern plains H5 trough moves east into the upper Midwest
and northern Great Lakes states, a surface cold front across SD will
move southward across NE and into northern KS by late this afternoon.
A surface and 850mb trough extended from an area of low pressure
across southern SD, southwest across western KS. The surface/850mb
trough will slowly shift east across eastern NE into central KS
during the late afternoon hours. Southwesterly 850mb winds will
continue to advect deep moisture and warm air northeast across the
CWA. south-southwest winds will increase by the mid morning hours to
20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 30 to 40 MPH. Forecast soundings show
boundary layer mixing to be around 850mb across the eastern counties
of the CWA with the mixed boundary layer reaching around 800mb
across the southwest counties. Given 850mb temps of 24 to 27
degrees, most areas should reach the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the southwest counties. Given
dewpoints from the upper 60s to lower 70s most area will see heat
indices reach the 104 to 109 degree range this afternoon. Therefore,
I will keep the heat advisory going for this afternoon. The surface
cold front will move into northern counties of the CWA this
afternoon
Once again there are various model solutions to the
location of developing thunderstorms along the surface front late
this afternoon. The ARW, ECMWF and GFS show the CAP holding across
the CWA with the tail end line of storms developing southwest along
the front into northwest MO. The NAM, RAP and NMM show isolated
thunderstorms developing along the front from northeast KS,
southwest into the central counties of the CWA. If thunderstorms do
develop they will be strong to severe given an environment ahead of
the front with 5,000 to 6,000 J/KG of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 KT of sfc
to 6KM effective shear. The primary hazards from any organized
updraft rotating updraft will be large hail, despite the warmer
temperatures aloft, and damaging wind gusts.
The isolated storms should weaken
near sunset as the surface front pushes south of I-70 and then
become stationary. Elevated showers and thunderstorms may redevelop
later Tonight across the CWA as the veered 850mb winds begin to back
to more of a southerly directions, which may provide for isentropic
lift north of the boundary. However, there will not be much upper
level support as an H5 ridge axis begins to amplify across the high
plains. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 60s along the NE border
with lower 70s across east central KS.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
Some 700-850mb moisture convergence takes place over mainly northern
locations Tuesday north of the front, with modest though somewhat
deep isentropic upglide on 315 and 310K surfaces. Elevated CAPE of
around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of around 40kt progged by NAM
and GFS could support at least brief severe storms. Have dropped
temps a few degrees in increasing agreement in some precip and
cloud, though gradient could easily be much stronger than forecast.
Convergence shifts northeast in the afternoon and evening hours for
diminishing chances. Deep southwest low level flow brings warmer air
back in for Wednesday. Air temps should easily reach the 90s, though
persistent trajectories from the southwest from earlier periods
should keep dewpoints somewhat lower and apparent temps around 100.
Next front sinks south through eastern Kansas Thursday into Friday
with upper ridge beginning to build over the western ConUS. Cooling
mid level temps and deeper moisture should support a more widespread
precip event, with wind fields not supporting much in way of severe
storms. Front continues south in increasingly amplified upper flow
with dropping to below normal levels for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Southerly winds will be gusty at times overnight with increasing
winds by mid-morning, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-30kts through
the afternoon. A cold front will sink southward toward the TAF sites
by late afternoon, with winds shifting to the north late afternoon
through the evening hours. With the front slowly pivoting over the
TAF sites Monday evening, could see a couple of hours of variable wind
directions. There is the potential for some isolated to scattered
storms to develop along this boundary late afternoon into the
evening hours, but have not mentioned it in the TAF at this time due
to uncertainty in timing and occurrence. However, this potential
will be monitored for future TAF updates.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ009>012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1207 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEAR INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHT COOLER
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING COOL
OUTFLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE WEST
AND AMPLIFIES BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 97 72 97 / 10 0 10 0
GCK 69 98 72 96 / 20 0 20 10
EHA 70 97 71 95 / 20 0 10 10
LBL 70 97 71 95 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 70 93 73 97 / 20 10 10 20
P28 72 96 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE THAT TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA HAS DEVELOPED ON A
NARROW BELT OF MORE MOIST 850 MB AIR OVERLAPPING MUCAPE VALUES OF
OVER 1000 J/KG. THE RAP INDICATES THIS BELT OF RICHER/MORE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER IN SOME FORM OR
FASHION AND MAKING IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY AFTER DAWN. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY
WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CAP BREAKS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH SBCAPE OVER 4000
J/KG...SO ANY STORM WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY. WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 70 T0 75 DEGREE RANGE...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND TO AROUND
100 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THANKS TO PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
PATTERN WILL THEN AMPLIFY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. DETAILS ON HOW THE AMPLIFICATION EVOLVES WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...SO
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST...WITH LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE AT SOME POINT.
TROUGHING WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPPING INTO LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT SME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND INDIRECTLY
AFFECT REMAINING TAF SITES AS DEBRIS CLOUDS COMPLICATES POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THIS BLANKET OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...I
BACKED OFF ON FOG EXPECTATIONS IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
134 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1205 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
After much deliberation and helpful collaboration with PAH and WHAS,
have decided to up PoPs slightly for the overnight hours into the
40% range across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. The
reason is that convection is currently refiring over southern
Illinois and sliding to the ESE. The NSSL-WRF is about the only
model that shows this (and shows it rather well, actually), with
some slight support from the SPC SREF. The NSSL-WRF brings the
showers and storms right across southwest Indiana and north central
Kentucky, roughly along the I-64 corridor. These overnight storms
are expected to remain slightly elevated and severe weather is not
expected. Having said that, though, the storms over the past several
hours have been impressive lightning producers, and that may
continue into the overnight. Sub-severe gusty winds and pea size
hail aren`t entirely out of the question overnight, especially west
of Louisville.
Updated at 752 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
After chatting with SPC, will allow the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to
expire on time as instability lessens and CIN increases. Will need
to hold on to scattered PoPs for the remainder of the evening hours
however with some weak low level jetting from Missouri to central
Illinois, the entrance region of a small upper jetlet crossing
central Indiana, and a weak 5H wave approaching from the west.
Could see some patchy fog late but there should be enough cirrus
overhead to keep it from becoming too widespread or dense.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The latest high res models indicate that the shower/storms over
south central IL will slowly move ESE toward along the I-64 corridor
later this morning. If this complex holds together as current
models suggest, it would impact SDF between 11-15Z and LEX between
15-18Z. Therefore did include a VCTS group for SDF/LEX later this
morning. BWG should stay clear of additional convection attm.
However, BWG could see some brief light MVFR fog during the pre-dawn
hours. Overall the TAFs are mostly VFR but each TAF site could see
brief periods of flight restrictions based on the above reasons.
Winds will become mostly SSW during the pre-dawn hours remaining
between 5-10 kts. SW winds will be gusty this afternoon outside of
any convection with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. TRENDS SEEN IN CLOUD TOP TEMPS...LIGHTNING...
AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST STORMS ARE WEAKENING...BUT UPPED POPS WEST
OF I-75 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
DEBRIS CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY BUT HAS
WEAKENED A BIT OVERALL AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR BUT STILL
REMAINS RATHER STRONG FOR LATE EVENING. THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS CENTRAL KY CONVECTION
ALL THAT WELL THOUGH THE 2Z HRRR SEEMS TO BE MORE REALISTIC
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT PROBABLY IS A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THIS CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION...WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING POPS AND HELD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT WAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO SLIGHT POP THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
FOR ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR SUGGEST A QUIET
OVERNIGHT THEREAFTER. MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW...BUT BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND TO CAP
MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
IN OUR VICINITY TAKES A TEMPORARY JOG NORTHWARD. BEEFED UP FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SAW THE MOST
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
AFTER UPDATING THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO BRING IN LINE WITH LATEST
THOUGHTS AND TRENDS ADJUSTED GRIDS TOWARDS MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED DOWN
INTO OUR AREA TODAY...PRODUCED BY AN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST LAST
NIGHT. WITH AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO DRAW FROM...STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE WITH SOME LIKELY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN SOME CALLS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREES DOWN IN
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...BUT STILL TRYING TO CONFIRM. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD
BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S...
AND CLOSE TO 100 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. THIS RIDGE
WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. A TRUE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
TO WELCOME IN THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPPING INTO LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT SME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND INDIRECTLY
AFFECT REMAINING TAF SITES AS DEBRIS CLOUDS COMPLICATES POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THIS BLANKET OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...I
BACKED OFF ON FOG EXPECTATIONS IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
100 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. TRENDS SEEN IN CLOUD TOP TEMPS...LIGHTNING...
AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST STORMS ARE WEAKENING...BUT UPPED POPS WEST
OF I-75 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
DEBRIS CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY BUT HAS
WEAKENED A BIT OVERALL AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR BUT STILL
REMAINS RATHER STRONG FOR LATE EVENING. THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS CENTRAL KY CONVECTION
ALL THAT WELL THOUGH THE 2Z HRRR SEEMS TO BE MORE REALISTIC
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT PROBABLY IS A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THIS CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION...WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING POPS AND HELD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT WAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO SLIGHT POP THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
FOR ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR SUGGEST A QUIET
OVERNIGHT THEREAFTER. MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW...BUT BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND TO CAP
MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
IN OUR VICINITY TAKES A TEMPORARY JOG NORTHWARD. BEEFED UP FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SAW THE MOST
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
AFTER UPDATING THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO BRING IN LINE WITH LATEST
THOUGHTS AND TRENDS ADJUSTED GRIDS TOWARDS MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED DOWN
INTO OUR AREA TODAY...PRODUCED BY AN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST LAST
NIGHT. WITH AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO DRAW FROM...STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE WITH SOME LIKELY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN SOME CALLS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREES DOWN IN
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...BUT STILL TRYING TO CONFIRM. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD
BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S...
AND CLOSE TO 100 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. THIS RIDGE
WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. A TRUE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
TO WELCOME IN THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
STORMS IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING KLOZ AND KSME ARE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN PLACES...A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY HIT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS A BIT HARDER
WITH FOG THAN THE NORTHERN SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW
MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING BURNS OFF MOST FOG BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5KT MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1206 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1205 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
After much deliberation and helpful collaboration with PAH and WHAS,
have decided to up PoPs slightly for the overnight hours into the
40% range across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. The
reason is that convection is currently refiring over southern
Illinois and sliding to the ESE. The NSSL-WRF is about the only
model that shows this (and shows it rather well, actually), with
some slight support from the SPC SREF. The NSSL-WRF brings the
showers and storms right across southwest Indiana and north central
Kentucky, roughly along the I-64 corridor. These overnight storms
are expected to remain slightly elevated and severe weather is not
expected. Having said that, though, the storms over the past several
hours have been impressive lightning producers, and that may
continue into the overnight. Sub-severe gusty winds and pea size
hail aren`t entirely out of the question overnight, especially west
of Louisville.
Updated at 752 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
After chatting with SPC, will allow the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to
expire on time as instability lessens and CIN increases. Will need
to hold on to scattered PoPs for the remainder of the evening hours
however with some weak low level jetting from Missouri to central
Illinois, the entrance region of a small upper jetlet crossing
central Indiana, and a weak 5H wave approaching from the west.
Could see some patchy fog late but there should be enough cirrus
overhead to keep it from becoming too widespread or dense.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Kept a couple hours of VCTS in the BWG TAF for the cells that are
currently in the area plus new ones attempting to come in from
western Kentucky. Also went ahead and put in a couple hours of VCTS
at SDF in case the convection currently over central Indiana can
survive all the way to the airport. LEX should remain high and dry
for the foreseeable future.
With the rain that fell at BWG this evening and with lighter winds
expected tonight than last night, included some high-end MVFR BR for
a few hours toward dawn. A cirrus canopy overhead will help to keep
the fog from getting out of hand (and possibly from forming at all).
Ridging will keep us dry tomorrow other than perhaps a stray cell in
the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
535 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS MADE THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD PATCHY DZ TIL
9 AM AND MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS TIL MIDDAY BASED ON 5 AM
OBS.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST OBS HAVE INDICATED THE DISSIPATION OF FOG AND
MOST OF THE DZ AS WINDS BECAME NRLY OVR THE LAST 3 TO 6 HRS ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHWRS FROM A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF RNFL OVR NRN NH AND WRN ME BEGINNING TO CROSS
OVR INTO THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF OUR FA.
LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF SHOWS SOME OF THIS SHWR
ACTIVITY TO CONT OVR MSLY OUR SW ZONES INTO THE MORN HRS AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROF CROSSES W TO E ACROSS THE FA...WITH UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND LCLY MORE OF RNFL OVR LCTNS BORDERING MID ME.
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
AFTN AS THE UPPER TROF SLIDES E OF THE FA INTO THE MARITIMES...
WITH DECREASING CLDNSS BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVR MOST LCTNS. A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD THEN PROVIDE FAIR SKIES WITH CLR-PTLY CLDY
SKIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
A MDTLY STRONG S/WV TROF AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ENE
FROM S CNTRL CAN INTO QB WILL BRING AN INCREASING BL-850MB RETURN
SSW WIND LATE TNGT...WITH SREF CATEGORY CLG PROBS SUGGESTING THE
NWRD ADVC OF MARINE ST FROM THE NRN GULF OF ME INTO OUR FA BY
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS MAY BE IN ADVC OF THE HI/MID CLD CANOPY AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
HI TEMPS TDY SHOULD BE WARMER BY 5 TO 10 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO YSTDY...BUT STILL 4 TO 8 DEG F BELOW AVG FOR THIS TM
OF SEASON. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLD CVR LATE AT NGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ENSURE THE MORNING STARTS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND THESE STABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RAIN WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE
SOME NEGATIVE TILT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET. THESE FACTORS ALSO POINT TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CASE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
FURTHER STRENGTHENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AND DECENT MUCAPE. MOST
AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE THE BETTER PART OF A HALF INCH WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF
THE DOWN EAST REGION IN THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL TEND TO LINGER
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLEARING ARRIVES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW HUMIDITY. WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE A DETERMENT
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 70S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD
MARINE AIR. A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MINOR UPPER
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BUT WILL NOT ASSIGN POPS ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS TOWARDS 30 MPH...BUT WINDS
WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO COMMENCE
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST SITES WILL BE RECOVERING FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN
TO VFR THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO THIS EVE...WITH
SREF MODEL CLG CATEGORY PROBS SUGGESTING THE RETURN OF MARINE LOW
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ST FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE TNGT AS
RETURN BL-850MB S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TEMPO IFR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR FROM LATER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD TDY THRU TNGT...WITH ANY LEFT OVR MARINE
FOG LIFTING ERLY THIS MORN. WENT WITH ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE THRU THE NEAR TERM FOR OUR WATERS THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR AN SCA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER 5 FT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ALSO ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF FOG IS ALSO LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
522 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
515 AM UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...EXITING INTO EASTERN AREAS...WITH A SECOND BATCH OF
SHOWERS NOW CROSSING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THIS LARGE BAND EXITING OFF THE COAST BY
12Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
CENTRAL MAINE TODAY.
ABSENCE OF NORTHWEST GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPING AND ONLY THE ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. CU WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD POOL
REMAINING ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED DOWNWARDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS IS A COOLER FORECAST...HOWEVER SOUTHERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT THE
WARM SECTOR REACHES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS DEVELOP A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARYS THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS WAVE...CAPE VALUES
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG AS STRONG JET MAX ENTERS THE
REGION ALOFT. THIS WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WHICH SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
IN THEIR DISCUSSIONS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...ANY TRAINING STORMS COULD DROP LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING QUIET
AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
VERY WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S.
ONLY POSSIBLE SPOILER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE. DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF`S TAKE ON THIS...MAY INCLUDE
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG IT. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW MAY HAVE OCEAN STRATUS FLIRTING WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS IFR AND LIFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPING.
ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MCS WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF SD EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MUCAPE...STRONG 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVER UPPER MI THE
WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER AND GENERALLY PCPN FREE UNDER SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND OVER LAKE MI AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FM THE
NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...LATEST 03Z SREF ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH MAJORITY OF 00Z AND
06Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE MCS OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE INTO SRN MN AND THE SRN HALF OF WI THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE GRADIENT OF HIGHEST MLCAPE/MUCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW PREV FCST SHIFT WITH SLOWER PCPN
ARRIVAL BACKING OFF PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE NOSE OF
THE IMPINGING 30-40 KT LOW-LVL JET. INCREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF MCS TO THE SW WILL TEND TO LIMIT
EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM REACHING FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST
TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-
1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 55-70KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD COULD
LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH
TROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE EVENING INTO
TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE NW FLOW. MODELS SHOW
THOSE DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY AND ALREADY
LIMITED MOISTURE STAYS OVER THE NRN CWA. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AROUND PEAK HEATING WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER LAND AREAS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NOT REAL SURE ON THE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS MODEL
VARY ON THE TIMING OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FASTER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT MOSTLY DRY THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...SO WILL JUST RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AT KSAW...FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY MON
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT SAW FOR SOME FOG
AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AT SAW AND THEY SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE THUNDER AT TIMES MON...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL GET GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL OVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW
35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA
WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MCS WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF SD EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MUCAPE...STRONG 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVER UPPER MI THE
WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER AND GENERALLY PCPN FREE UNDER SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND OVER LAKE MI AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FM THE
NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...LATEST 03Z SREF ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH MAJORITY OF 00Z AND
06Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE MCS OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE INTO SRN MN AND THE SRN HALF OF WI THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE GRADIENT OF HIGHEST MLCAPE/MUCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW PREV FCST SHIFT WITH SLOWER PCPN
ARRIVAL BACKING OFF PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE NOSE OF
THE IMPINGING 30-40 KT LOW-LVL JET. INCREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF MCS TO THE SW WILL TEND TO LIMIT
EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM REACHING FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST
TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-
1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 55-70KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH
TROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE EVENING INTO
TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE NW FLOW. MODELS SHOW
THOSE DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY AND ALREADY
LIMITED MOISTURE STAYS OVER THE NRN CWA. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AROUND PEAK HEATING WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER LAND AREAS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NOT REAL SURE ON THE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS MODEL
VARY ON THE TIMING OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FASTER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT MOSTLY DRY THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...SO WILL JUST RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AT KSAW...FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY MON
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT SAW FOR SOME FOG
AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AT SAW AND THEY SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE THUNDER AT TIMES MON...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL GET GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL OVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW
35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA
WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE HIGHER RES MODEL SCENARIO...SHOWS AN
ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO SRN WI OR NRN IL
ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN
TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN.
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY THROUGH 18Z.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF IN THE
MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF
50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS IS CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH
TROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE EVENING INTO
TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE NW FLOW. MODELS SHOW
THOSE DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY AND ALREADY
LIMITED MOISTURE STAYS OVER THE NRN CWA. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AROUND PEAK HEATING WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER LAND AREAS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NOT REAL SURE ON THE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS MODEL
VARY ON THE TIMING OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FASTER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT MOSTLY DRY THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...SO WILL JUST RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AT KSAW...FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY MON
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT SAW FOR SOME FOG
AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AT SAW AND THEY SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE THUNDER AT TIMES MON...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL GET GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. A LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO
MON EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE HIGHER RES MODEL SCENARIO...SHOWS AN
ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO SRN WI OR NRN IL
ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN
TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN.
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY THROUGH 18Z.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF IN THE
MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF
50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS IS CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AT KSAW...FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY MON
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT SAW FOR SOME FOG
AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AT SAW AND THEY SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE THUNDER AT TIMES MON...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL GET GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AT ALL SITES. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. A LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO
MON EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER THIS EVENING AS
LATEST SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE SITTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO GAIN MOMENTUM OVER NW WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE ON GOING CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS...WHERE A
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH DEEPENING H85/SFC LOW WILL
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...WHICH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DLH CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY.
THE SHORT WAVES WITH SFC TROUGH/H85 LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE CAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
SEASONABLE TO MILD WEEK AHEAD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MID/LATE WEEK
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE WILL BE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 100KT JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING QUIET
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUES INTO
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE TO MILD.
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FOLLOWING
A LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY END BY 06Z AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY SUNNY AND DRY DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTING EAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT SHEAR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 35-40 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD
THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
HEADED TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
COMPLEX...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM LATE
TUESDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT TOUGH TO
DETERMINE WHICH DAY WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT NO
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN 50S.
FRI...SAT...SUN...SEASONABLE TO MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUING TO
BE IN THE PATH OF A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...AND ALSO DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR HUDSON
BAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPS AGAIN MORE OF THE SAME...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AS OF ISSUANCE TIME TO BE OVERRUN BY A DECAYING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 08Z...BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO KBRD...BUT REMAINING SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AS THE COMPLEX TURNS SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER
EASTERN ND AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH STRENGTH OF STORMS
TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWEEPS EAST. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH
MAINLY VCTS AS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE STORMS
IS FAIRLY HIGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 76 55 76 / 10 0 10 30
INL 51 75 52 76 / 10 20 30 60
BRD 55 78 57 78 / 0 0 10 30
HYR 56 76 53 77 / 10 0 10 20
ASX 55 76 55 75 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 518 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Tonight - Monday:
Elevated convection redeveloping across northwest MO where airmass
is being feed by increasing feed of accas forming across northeast
KS. While the HRRR has had some issues its also been adamant that
scattered convection would from over northwest MO late this
afternoon and evening. SPC Meso Analysis depicts region of deep
moisture convergence and advection of better instability into
northwest MO to support the continued development. Isolated severe
is possible as 40kt 0-6km shear supports activity. Convection will
likely begin to fall apart as we head towards sunset and instability
begins to wane. Boundary currently over west central MO will
eventually lift north and into IA overnight allowing southerly flow
to reestablish itself.
Hot and humid air funnels back into the region as a stiff
southwesterly low level jet pushes in. Hot h7 temperatures in the
+14C to +17C range will effectively cap the airmass for most of the
day. Highs should rebound back into the lower to middle 90s with
hottest air over west central/northwest MO and eastern KS. Add in
surface dewpoints in the 71F-74F range and HI values will likely top
out around 105F. So issued a heat advisory for afternoon hours.
Fast zonal flow across the northern tier of states will allow a fast
moving shortwave to force a cold front south and east into northwest
MO by very late afternoon. Hot h7 temperatures will hold back
convection but operational models "cooling" at h7 by 00z Tuesday
suggest cooling due to convection. While convection will likely hold
off until Monday night will transition to that with a small window
of slight chance PoPs over far northwest MO.
Monday night - Tuesday night:
Aforementioned cold front will be the focus for scattered convection
Monday evening. Moderate/extreme instability and 0-6km bulk shear of
30-35kt will support a severe threat across northern MO down to the
MO River.
This frontal boundary is expected to stall across central MO on
Tuesday then lift back north as a warm front. Thus this boundary
will once again be the focus for a third round of potential severe
weather Tuesday through Tuesday night. Should see a 10-15 degree
thermal contrast across the boundary. High precipitable water values
during this period will support a continued heavy rain threat as
some training of cells is possible.
Wednesday:
The warm front is expected to lift north into IA and allow the cap
to reform and give us a chance to dry out. But the hot and humid air
is the trade off.
Thursday - Saturday:
The bouncing front is expected to head back south during this period
and in the vicinity of the CWA such that moderately high PoPs are
required. Extensive cloud cover and the rain cooled air should bring
reasonably cool air to the region, but at a cost...high humidity and
the threat of heavy rains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Overnight, low-level moisture could produce some IFR stratus over all
of the terminal sites. Ceiling heights may be further reduced,
depending on how well the stratus layer can maintain itself in light
of modest wind speeds. The primary impact for Monday afternoon will
be gusty winds out of the southwest. Daytime winds will sustain
around 15 knots gusting to 25-30kts during the afternoon hours.
Toward the end of the period, a cold front pushing through the region
from the north could lead to scattered convection Monday night. Winds
will continue to veer following the frontal passage, ultimately
transitioning out of the north while weakening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ002>006-
011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
...CORRECTION FOR TYPO...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VERY STRONG CAP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND SO FAR CONVECTION
IN THE DAKOTAS STAYING THERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SANDHILLS WILL INCLUDE SOME IN THE
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS JUST 1F-2F.
STRONG INVERSION THIS MORNING AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE 999MB OVER KVTN. COOL FRONT TRAILING WITH NORTH WINDS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 11Z AND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30S OVER THE
SANDHILLS. COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST AND
80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG CHANGE WILL BE
WITH DEW POINTS AS 70S MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND 50S MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S
FOR OVER NIGHT LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
NORTHWESTERLY ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...THERE/S SUPPORT IN THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS OF THE RIDGE
EXPANDING EASTWARD...FOCUSING THE STORMS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND LOCATION OF A WAFFLING BAROCLINIC
ZONES HAS BEEN A RECENT CHALLENGE...WITH THE MODELS NOT ONLY AT ODDS
WITH EACH OTHER...BUT AT ODDS WITH EACH OF IT/S OWN SUCCESSIVE RUNS
AT TIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE...THUS A GENERAL BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS WAS USED TO DERIVE THE LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE POP
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF POPS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE APPEARS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG PV MAX MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE A WARM FRONT
RETURNS NORTH TO THE SANDHILLS. MODELS /GFS AND EC/ DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND INFLUENCE FROM THE PV
MAX...BUT AGREE ON A QUASI WEST TO EAST BAND OF QPF DEVELOPING OVER
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT SETS
UP...COUPLED WITH INCREASED UPPER FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...BUT COULD BE SEVERE AS ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT NORTH OF THE LIFTING FRONT CONTRIBUTES 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AS
A LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIKELY ACROSS SD AND PERHAPS NRN NEB TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 700 MB
CAP...WHICH COULD WEAKEN THOUGH. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN STORMS WOULD
BRUSH NRN NEB AND DEPART BY 12Z-13Z.
STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD DEVELOP BRIEFLY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NERN WY MOVE THROUGH TOWARD MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG INSOLATION AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...A STOUT EML HAS EFFECTIVELY PUT A
LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES AND A LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY FOR INITIATION...NOT
ANTICIPATING THAT ANY SURFACE BASED PARCEL WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
CAP TODAY AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POP MENTION IN THE
GRIDS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMOLY TRACKS ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVLOPS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...OVERSPREADING A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR
TO JUST NORTH OF THE SD/NEB BORDER. DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT/WY THIS EVENING AND CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS AS IT FOLLOWS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LLJ AND TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA...POSSIBLY GRAZING PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. 50+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL STONES...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL PV KICKS EAST MONDAY...LEAVING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS IN SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH QG CONVERGENCE ALOFT. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN
NORTHWEST NEBRSAKA...TO NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
AS DICUSSED PREVIOUSLY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN
STATES AND LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. EACH ITERATION OF
THIS SCENARIO WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BUT
STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS ASSOCIATED SFC PRESSURE
RISES REMAIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER FEATURES. HOWEVER...AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
FORCING...COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WILL ALSO SERVE TO ALTER THE MEAN
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH MAKES THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS...AND
RESULTANT TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD FORECASTS...CHALLENGING.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA AND RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE WY/SD/CO HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. SUBTLE PV ANOMALY IN
THE MODELS SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO GENERATE ISO TO SCT
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WRN
AREAS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT
NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER AS A MORE SWD DISPLACED PV ANOMALY PROGRESSES TWD
THE SRN PLAINS BY TUES MORN. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATTER SCENARIO AND THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT INSOLATION
TUESDAY. AS NEXT AND POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TUES NIGHT...SFC PRESSURES LOWER ALONG THE
LEE SIDE AND IN RESPONSE SRLY WINDS INCREASE AND ALLOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS DIFFER AGAIN
ON ACTUAL POSITION AND GFS/NAM SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NERN
CO BY WED AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENCOURAGE
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WHEREVER THE FRONT ENDS UP...HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT DIFFS ALSO EXIST IN AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF IS NEARLY
NON-EXISTANT WHICH YIELDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EXTENDED
FCST...LEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OF BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TRACK TO BE BETTER DEFINED AND
SHOULD FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES TWD THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASINGLY NW FLOW
ALOFT...ANY ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENT WOULD
BE FAVORED TO BE MORE TWD WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIKELY ACROSS SD AND PERHAPS NRN NEB TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 700 MB
CAP...WHICH COULD WEAKEN THOUGH. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN STORMS WOULD
BRUSH NRN NEB AND DEPART BY 12Z-13Z.
STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD DEVELOP BRIEFLY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NERN WY MOVE THROUGH TOWARD MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS
HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. IT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 4 AM CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH AND REPLACE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 327 UNTIL 5AM CDT. AN AREA
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MCINTOSH AND DICKEY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL MOUNTRAIL...WARD...RENVILLE.....
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...ROLETTE AND PIERCE COUNTIES FROM TORNADO
WATCH 324.
FOCUS IS TURNING BACK TO MONTANA AGAIN AS ANOTHER SUPERCELL JUST
EAST OF MILES CITY AS OF 225 UTC IS RAPIDLY PROPAGATING EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE STORM WILL START TURNING RIGHT
AND MISS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WILLIAMS...DIVIDE AND BURKE
COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AS OF 2345 UTC...ANVIL SHADING APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR NOW.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL ACROSS BOWMAN COUNTY
WHICH IS IN THE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 21-22 UTC HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION....WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH TWO POTENTIAL
LINES...ONE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE US
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND A SECOND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
ANVIL SHADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
453 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS SETTING UP FOR TODAY. BOUNDARY THAT
PUSHED THROUGH THE FA YESTERDAY...STRETCHES BACK TO THE WEST INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IS EVIDENCED BY ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING OUT OF SRN IL INTO KY. FARTHER NW ON THE BOUNDARY IN IA
ANOTHER AREA HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ALL LEADS UP TO A LARGE MCS IN THE
NRN PLAINS. HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM ARE THE QUICKEST AND
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE COMPLEX IN THE NRN
PLAINS. THEY TAKE IT INTO THE SRN PART OF THE LP OF MI BY 21Z.
OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY IS FCST
TO LIFT NWD TODAY. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ON IT.
WENT AHEAD LEANED TOWARDS THE HRRR/NAM SOLUTION AND BROUGHT SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO THE NRN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE N. ELSEWHERE USED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 90 IN THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A CDFNT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FA. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH CAPE FROM
2500 TO 3500 J/KG. FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FROM 45 TO 50 KT. THUS
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY AND SOME
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
WELL SHOULD BE POSSIBLE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM TONIGHT...STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
ON TUESDAY THE CONVECTION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER
80S IN THE NRN KY. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS TO COME THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH LATER WED INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC
WAVE. ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY BUT FOR NOW HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM VARIOUS SOLNS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH NEXT SFC WAVE PIVOTING
THRU GREAT LAKES. HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS CHANCE CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
WAVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM UPR 70S/NEAR 80 NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET NEXT 24-30 HOURS IS IN STORE FOR THE REGIONS TAF SITES.
SOME MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH DAYBREAK. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO DURING THE MORNING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SSW AT 10-12KTS WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT. A PASSING
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MORESO TOWARDS CENTRAL
OHIO. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF WAITING TO
SEE IF THEY DO INITIATE AND IF SO...WHETHER THEY TRACK TOWARDS A
TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND MAY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
231 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ON AND OFF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWS FOR
TONIGHT PER LATEST SFC OBS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ADJUSTED SKY
GRIDS USING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WV. UPPER CLOUDS FROM A DYING MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL KY WILL SPREAD EAST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT. REMOVED ALL POPS OVERNIGHT PER RADAR AND LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING NO PCPN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LESS ACTIVITY THERE DUE TO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. DID ELECT TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE MORNING...AS NEAR TERM
MODELS INDICATING POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO
MAKE ITS WAY/SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO
CHANCE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN
THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT SHOULD GET QUITE WARM...OR EVEN HOT...WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE AIRMASS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY EITHER
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
OSCILLATING IN OUR VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF CLEARING ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS MOST
SITES. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM A DYING MCS OVER
CENTRAL KY WILL MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE MORE CLEARING THROUGH
AT LEAST 09Z. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT EKN AND BKW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO STILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THEIR DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER PKB AND CRW...BUT TEMPORARILY IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND BKW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY 12Z AREAWIDE WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLD
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM...12Z- 20Z TIME
PERIOD...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR FOG TONIGHT IN
QUESTION. DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY DIFFER
FROM FORECAST.
.AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
120 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWS FOR
TONIGHT PER LATEST SFC OBS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ADJUSTED SKY
GRIDS USING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WV. UPPER CLOUDS FROM A DYING MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL KY WILL SPREAD EAST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT. REMOVED ALL POPS OVERNIGHT PER RADAR AND LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING NO PCPN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
630 PM UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LESS ACTIVITY THERE DUE TO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. DID ELECT TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE MORNING...AS NEAR TERM
MODELS INDICATING POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO
MAKE ITS WAY/SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO
CHANCE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF CLEARING ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS MOST
SITES. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL DEBRI CLOUDS FROM A DYING MCS OVER
CENTRAL KY WILL MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE MORE CLEARING THROUGH
AT LEAST 09Z. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT EKN AND BKW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO STILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THEIR DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER PKB AND CRW...BUT TEMPORARILY IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND BKW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY 12Z AREAWIDE WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLD
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM...12Z- 20Z TIME
PERIOD...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR FOG TONIGHT IN
QUESTION. DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY DIFFER
FROM FORECAST.
.AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STEADILY
DIMINISHING MCS OVER CENTRAL KY AND NRN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF LESSER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN TN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THIS
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS...WHICH HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY REACHING THE WRN MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE MAINLY TO DEWPOINT UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
SLIGHT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON IN THIS REGIME. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF
MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S...WITH JUST A SLIVER OF 105 ACROSS
THE EXTREME LOWER PIEDMONT. GREENWOOD COUNTY WILL BE MOST AT RISK OF
105 THIS AFTN AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED THERE.
REGARDING CONVECTION...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REGION OF BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALL MODEL PROFILES HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIN AND
CAPPING TO OVERCOME TODAY...THE GFS MORE SO THAN THE NAM. THE GFS
PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE PREFERRED AND THIS SOLUTION OF
LESS COVERAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED...WITH MAINLY A MTN FOCUS...POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE PIEDMONT IN LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE TOWARD
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANYTHING THAT
BREAKS THE CAP GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...WITH
JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE WARM TONIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FA
TUE THRU WED WITH SUBTLE LOWERING OF HEIGHTS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASING MORESO WED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TUES WILL BE THE DRIER AND WARMER DAY. THE FLOW BELOW H9 WILL
BRING LOW-END MOISTURE ADV TO THE WRN ZONES TUE LIMITING PULSE
SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW MTNS. MEANWHILE...A DISTINCTLY
STRONGER W/LY FLOW WITHIN THE H9/H8 LAYER WILL ALIGN CORRECTLY FOR
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH DEEP NEG OMEGA AND HIGH INSOL IN PLACE...MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH ARND 100 F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGIONS. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO MIX OUT THE BEST IN THESE AREAS KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCE
OF 105 F HI/S ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES. THE SAME GENERAL
SCENARIO GOES FOR WED...BUT A FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES WILL CREATE A LLVL COL AND REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF ADDED MECH
HEAT. THUS HI/S WILL STILL BE HIGH...BUT THE 105 F AREAS WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. BOTH DAYS WILL RECIEVE A GENERAL HWO MENTION.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING IN EARLY WED
MORNING...NOCTURNAL CONVEC ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN GOOD
ELCAPE. THIS BNDRY WILL PROVIDE AND GOOD FOCUSING ZONE FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ARND THE I-40 COORIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR KHKY BECOME HIGHLY SATURATED WED AFTERNOON WHILE WARM CLOUD
LAYERS DEEPEN...SO A HYDRO CONCERN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN LIMITED STORM
MOTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR
THU AND FRI HOWEVER MAXES WILL LOWER ENUF FOR HI/S TO BECOME LESS OF
A CONCERN CWFA/WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE CONFIG REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THU ALLOWING GOOD HEATING WITH A LEE TROF DEVELOPING AND
THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW/LY INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
MTNS. THE PREVIOUS DAY/S FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES DIFFUSE SO THE
BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS...MAINLY A CLIMO PATTERN
OVER THE FA. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE FRI AS UPPER HEIGHTS BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC WITH A LARGE SCALE TROF DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
HAVE THE EFFECT OF MAINTAINING NOCTURNAL CONVEC THRU THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY MTNS AND ENHANCE THE LEE TROF. AS FAR AS POPS...A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO FRI/SAT AS TROF AXIS REMAINS EAST OF THE CWFA. THE
TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SAT...BUT BY THIS
TIME THE DEEPER DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE FA...SO THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME DISRUPTED AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ESP SUN WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES
RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL PROFILES HAVE JUST ENOUGHT CIN AND CAPPING TO
LARGELY PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN A LEE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...GENERALLY NE THIS MORNING AND
SRLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR KAVL ONCE
AGAIN IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE. PROFILES REMAIN GENERALLY
CAPPED WITH DECENT CIN FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...BUT KAVL WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SOMETHING FORMING NEARBY GIVEN THE TERRAIN
INFLUENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM THE
UPSTREAM MCS...WITH JUST FEW TO SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LATE FROM ANY MTN CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN FROM NE TO SRLY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...EXCEPT STAYING MAINLY NW AT KAVL.
BRIEF MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK IF THE
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS DO NOT APPRECIABLY THICKEN.
OUTLOOK...ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING MCS OVER CENTRAL KY AND NRN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF LESSER INSTABILITY ACROSS
ERN TN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE LITTLE TO NO SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY REACHING THE WRN MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...SO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE MAINLY TO DEWPOINT UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
SLIGHT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON IN THIS REGIME. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF
MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S...WITH JUST A SLIVER OF 105 ACROSS
THE EXTREME LOWER PIEDMONT. GREENWOOD COUNTY WILL BE MOST AT RISK OF
105 THIS AFTN AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE WEIGHED THERE AND IN
NEARBY PIEDMONT ZONES.
REGARDING CONVECTION...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REGION OF BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALL MODEL PROFILES HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CIN AND
CAPPING TO OVERCOME TODAY...BUT THE GFS MORE SO THAN THE NAM. THE
GFS PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE PREFERRED AND THIS SOLUTION
OF LESS COVERAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED...WITH MAINLY A MTN
FOCUS...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO THE PIEDMONT IN LEE TROUGH
CONVERGENCE TOWARD EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANYTHING THAT BREAKS THE CAP GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE WARM TONIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
SRN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL PERSIST. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
FCST AREA...SLIGHT TROUGHING COULD OCCUR AS FAR SWD AS THE
CAROLINAS...BUT THIS IS REALLY ONLY INDICATED BY THE GFS. ONCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY DIES DOWN MON EVENING WE SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THE
RAMP-UP WITH HEATING ON TUE. SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL PROBABLY KEEP
THE PIEDMONT DRY TUE BUT A CHANCE RETURNS OVER THE MTNS.
INTERESTINGLY THE NAM BRINGS THE SEA BREEZE AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SRN
SC/GA ZONES NEAR SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THIS TO
REFLECT IT IN THE FCST. THIS COULD HOWEVER PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
OVERCOME A WEAK CAP.
WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL STILL BE MAKING SWD PROGRESS ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THRU THE DAY IT IS UNLIKELY TO ENCROACH ON OUR AREA UNTIL
WED AT THE EARLIEST. NAM SHOWS IT MARCHING SWD OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
BUT IT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH IT WOULD MORE LIKELY STALL...BEFORE
PERHAPS ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE INCUMBENT
HIGH PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG FOR THE FRONT THOUGH...AND IT WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA WED. PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
EAST OF THE MTNS SO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE INCLUDED ACRS THE CWFA.
VERTICAL PROFILES HAVE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT THAT ISOLATED PULSE
STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHOSE
BLENDS OF T/TD GUIDANCE BASED ON THOSE THAT VERIFIED BEST WITH THE
HOT CONDITIONS LAST WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS WILL
AFFECT TD/S BUT THE BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE REFLECTS LITTLE OF THIS.
PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WILL SEE HEAT INDICES PEAK NEAR 105
BOTH DAYS...AND ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL ADD EXCESSIVE
HEAT WORDING TO THE HWO FOR WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER TROFFING OVER SE CANADA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER WHILE MULTIPLE LOBES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLE BY TO OUR NORTH. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK LOWS BEING GENERATED OVER THE PLAINS AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WITH
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOSTLY WASHING OUT AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHWARD.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY WITH IT BEING MORE PRONOUNCED ON SAT AND SUN AS THE LOWS
GENERATED APPEAR TO BE MORE ORGANIZED. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
ENDING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...IF NOT JUST ABOVE...BY DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL PROFILES HAVE JUST ENOUGHT CIN AND CAPPING TO
LARGELY PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN A LEE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...GENERALLY NE THIS MORNING AND
SRLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR KAVL ONCE
AGAIN IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE. PROFILES REMAIN GENERALLY
CAPPED WITH DECENT CIN FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...BUT KAVL WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SOMETHING FORMING NEARBY GIVEN THE TERRAIN
INFLUENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM THE
UPSTREAM MCS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH JUST FEW TO SCT HIGH
BASED CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH
MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATE FROM ANY MTN CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL
TURN FROM NE TO SRLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY..EXCEPT STAYING
MAINLY NW AT KAVL. BRIEF MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK IF THE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS DO NOT APPRECIABLY THICKEN.
OUTLOOK...ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID SOUTH REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. 00Z WRF AND
LATEST HRRR INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN OVERNIGHT FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND TO
ADJUST ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 DEGREES AROUND/AFTER 12 PM MONDAY.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
BLOW OFF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALTHOUGH...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S SO
IN PEAKS OF SUNSHINE...HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH NEAR 105
DEGREES. WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.
MEANWHILE...SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THEM BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING A WET
MICROBURST. WILL KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FURTHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE AROUND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S PRETTY EASILY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA THAT COULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE
UP. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TAD. THUS ALLOWING HEAT INDICES
TO STAY BELOW 15 DEGREES BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS.
EACH DAY THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE GETS A LITTLE WEAKER. MODELS
ARE SHOWING MORE AND MORE CONVECTION FIRING UP ESPECIALLY IN THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA AND AN UPPER TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FEEL MORE PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. W/SW WINDS AROUND
5KT OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 TOMORROW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH
500MB INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWED 1.98 INCHES OF PWAT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP
THROUGH 500MB. EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWED SOUTHEASTERLY STREAMER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY
SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE RAISED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR WHATS FALLING
NOW AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS DID NOT REACH FULL
POTENTIAL TODAY AND WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH TROUGHING OUT WEST INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF.
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. PWATS DO NOT REALLY FALL OFF AND REMAIN IN THE 1.9-
2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH
SFC WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESE. ALONG WITH A LITTLE SPEED
CONVERGENCE THINK THE SEABREEZE WILL GET GOING TUESDAY LATE MORNING
THEN PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND A
DEGREE WARMER ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND TO KEEP
HIGHS FROM REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...NAM AND GFS INDICATE
ANOTHER SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OR A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST MOISTURE
CONTENT PWATS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES AND GOOD INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP.
LIFT WILL BE INITIATED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE AS
WINDS BACK ESE AND WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH AND WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL POP GUIDANCE ALSO ON THE BAND
WAGON WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
BROAD BRUSH OF LOW END CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ LOOK OK AT THIS
TIME WITH POSSIBLE LATER SHIFT BUMPING CHANCES UPWARD.
PRECIPIATION CHANCES FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY WITH
EVEN LOWER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT LOWERS
AND A WESTWARD BUILDING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO WARM THE MID LAYERS
DEVELOPING A WEAK CAP. CAN NOT RULE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG A SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS ONCE AGAIN
SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH GIVING RISE TO ANOTHER SHOT
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH ECMWF KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA MAINTAIN A
MORE DRIER SCENARIO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONAL WITH WARM MUGGY NIGHT
AND HOT HUMID DAYS. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS WITHIN
REASON WITH GUIDANCE ONLY SEPERATE BY A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WINDS WILL REAMIN
AROUND 12 TO 17 KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAK LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND MODERATE TO SLIGHT SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 10 20
BROWNSVILLE 92 78 93 79 / 30 10 20 20
HARLINGEN 93 77 93 77 / 30 10 20 20
MCALLEN 94 78 94 78 / 30 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 77 94 77 / 30 20 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 79 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
58...GRAPHICS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE THAN MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...LOCATED SOUTH OF
EAGLE PASS AND NORTHWEST OF LAREDO. A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY OPENING AND MOVING
WEST TUESDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE WEST...DRYING HAS BEEN DELAYED AND MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUES.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA MAY TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. THEN DE-STABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CWA SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR REPEAT TO CONVECTION
FROM YESTERDAY. HRRR AGAIN DEPICTS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH QPF THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF...WHILE GFS AND NAM12 ARE MORE
ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY REGION.
SCATTERED POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
AND WESTWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUICK...HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY
ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ASSUMING THE MID LEVEL LOW DOES MOVE WEST AND OPEN TUESDAY...THERE
SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE...EXPECT CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAK FORCING MAY CONTINUE HIGHER COVERAGE.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF I-35...AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO
PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...REACHING THE
NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY. EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH OR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION LIKE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WOULD ONLY FURTHER INCREASE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 72 90 71 90 / 40 20 20 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 - 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 71 89 / 30 20 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 73 89 73 89 / 30 40 30 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 90 71 89 / 30 20 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 72 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 - 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 74 90 74 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 90 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
319 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOWS A
596 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE
TO A QUICK MOVING MID-UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ACROSS
KANSAS. IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA A WIND SHIFT MAY
OCCUR BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE THE WARMEST SECTION OF THE AREA AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW AND MIXING BEING MOST
EFFECTIVE AT BRINGING DOWN DRY AIR. 100 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED AT OR NEAR BOISE CITY...GUYMON AND DALHART.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...THE POSITION OF UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. USED PREVIOUS DAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATION
GRID...NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD...AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED VALUES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES SPATIAL CHANGES SEEN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM NEAR THE RATON MESA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY. IMPACTS
TO THE FAR NORTHWEST INCLUDING CIMARRON COUNTY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
JUST CLOUD DEBRIS THIS EVENING.
THROUGH MID WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN. 500 MB
HEIGHTS PEAK EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE GRADUALLY. A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN OCCURS. WEAK DIFFICULT
TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. THESE MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ON SATURDAY PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD MEAN FLOW WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK OVERALL MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ORGAGRAPHIC CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT
HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN BY
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MAXIMA IN COVERAGE TIED
TO DIURNAL HEATING. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL BUT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOW SEEM
POSSIBLE IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT (EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY). THIS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BECOMES NUMEROUS ENOUGH. OTHERWISE NO WEATHER
HAZARDOUS ARE FORESEEN.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE AMPLIFIED NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. WITH MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...COULD NOT JUSTIFY LOWER
THAN CLIMO PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE CONTINUED 15-20 POP IN THE WEST.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 91 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 5
BEAVER OK 97 71 98 70 96 / 0 5 0 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 101 67 95 66 93 / 10 10 5 5 10
BORGER TX 96 71 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 5
BOYS RANCH TX 97 68 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 5
CANYON TX 93 66 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 5
CLARENDON TX 91 68 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALHART TX 100 66 93 64 92 / 5 5 0 5 5
GUYMON OK 100 69 97 69 95 / 5 5 0 0 5
HEREFORD TX 93 66 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 5
LIPSCOMB TX 95 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 91 67 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 5
SHAMROCK TX 91 68 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 92 69 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
201 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE LATE THIS EVENING. MAIN AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE SITUATED FROM NE TN INTO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. FEW
SHOWERS...SOME THUNDER FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT
THESE TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN
CWA TIL MIDNIGHT.
THINK THE SW CWA WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS A LITTLE
LONGER...BUT OVERALL DRY WX EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE SW DUE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
UPSTREAM....AREA OF STORMS FROM IND-MT VERNON IL ARE MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW. LATEST HRRR AND WRF
FAVORING SOMETHING OVER ERN KY TO OHIO...THOUGH SOME RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT MAY LIMIT SE ADVANCE.
ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT
OF STARTING TO YIELD EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE START
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PEAK WITH THE
CROSSING OF AN 850 MB WARM FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP ACT AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THOSE REALIZED
TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO NEARLY
MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ON TUESDAY COLD FRONT WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOWED STRONG Q-V FORCING
ALONG WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY
WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE ONLY LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM ANY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING MAY LIMIT HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTING IN AT MID LEVELS WHICH MAY CAP GROWTH OF
STORMS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. BUFKIT IS FAVORING HE CAP WHICH WOULD
MEAN LESS STORMS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GFS POSITION OF THE FRONT IS FAVORED WHICH PLACES THE BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ON TO
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
500 MB ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THURSDAY THEN BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN
THE EAST WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING AN MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY DAYS THAT WILL HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY SUBJECT TO TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS MCS TRANSLATING ESE OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
KY. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN
WV/EASTERN TN/SOUTHWESTERN VA TOWARD 12Z AND DISSIPATE...THEN
REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
LWB/BLF/BCB AREA DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR ALL SITES...STARTING IN
THE WEST AROUND 17Z AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME
FRAME. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...SUCH TIMING IS
SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON DEVELOPMENT ON
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM
MORNING CLOUD COVER. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IT WOULD APPEAR BASED ON THE BEST
LINEUP OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HEATING...THAT THE PIEDMONT WOULD
BE THE PRIME AREA TODAY FOR CONVECTION. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION.
OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING FOG. GIVEN EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. HAVE BACKED OFF THE DENSE FOG AT
LWB A TAD AS THEY STILL HAVE A 4-DEGREE SPREAD AND CLOUD COVER.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW WINDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
REACH BLF/LWB BEFORE DAYBREAK AS WELL...FURTHER REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
WINDS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SW-WNW 5-7KTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...NEAR CALM AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE CAP STRENGTH OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AND HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A LINGERING
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA AND ACT AS A STRONGER FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM
MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. MSAS 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE CHARTS SHOW AROUND 3-5 MB
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS EASTERN WY. HRRR AND NAM12 BRING THE FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST CO AROUND 12Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL MIX OUT SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT BY AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHES IN. ANY POPS TODAY SHOULD STAY CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RATON MESA REGION...THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE WETS AND PERHAPS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. WITH QUITE A BIT OF CIN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THEY PUSH
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE RATON MESA
REGION WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
FIRE/MAINTAIN ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEARS APPEAR FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WENT SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR THE PLAINS THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...BUT TIMING OF
FRONT WILL MEAN EVERYTHING. TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
CONSENSUS GRIDS...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS OVERLY WARM MET/MAV GUIDANCE
IS GOING. MEANWHILE...FORECAST PERSISTENCE LOOKS BEST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALWAYS LEERY OF A LOW LEVEL JET IN VCNTY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...AS IT COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...CAP IS QUITE STOUT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND NOT
SURE IF UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREACH IT. NAM12 IS PRETTY
DRY...GFS KEEPS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...THOUGH DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE SE MTS. ARW LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...AND NMM PRINTS OUT WHAT LOOKS
LIKE SOME STRATIFORM SHOWERS/LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SILENT POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS. DID INCREASE SKY COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE
MTS/PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER
THAN READINGS THIS MORNING. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS...WITH HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT INTO ARKANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE
WEEK WHILE NEXT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER
THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY WEEKEND IN COMBINATION WITH
A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALSO...UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
INCREASED POPS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS WEEK...MAXIMIZING FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEARS EXCEED 1500
J/KG...-5C AND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SWINGING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. VFR CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
TO DEVELOP FOR BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. CIGS COULD RANGE FROM THE MVFR TO THE IFR CATEGORIES.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR...
SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGES ARE NOW PRETTY WELL ALIGNED/STACKED THIS
MORNING...WITH THEIR AXES NEAR A KVRB-KZPH LINE. WHILE CONDS ARE
QUITE OVER ECFL...IT WAS A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EARLY MORNING ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WHICH WAS THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS. STORMS
HAVE WEAKENED SOME SINCE 09Z-12Z...WITH A PRETTY COOL LOOKING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC GRAVITY WAVE SIGNATURE EMANATING FROM THE CONVECTION...
WHICH HAS WEAKENED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
MORNING RAOBS SHOW SIMILAR PWAT VALUES TO SUNDAY (1.8") WHICH WAS A
FAIRLY INACTIVE DAY...HOWEVER RH VALUES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER
BTWN H85 AND H70. TEMPS ALOFT HAVE COOLED A LITTLE...ABOUT 0.5C THRU
THE H50-H85 LAYER. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING LITTLE
EARLIER AND IS MORE ROBUST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COMPARED TO SUN.
GIVEN SLIGHT NWD SHIFT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...EXPECT EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND JUST A BIT FASTER ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST TODAY COMPARED TO VOLUSIA/BREVARD. NOT MUCH TO
QUIBBLE WITH IN THE GRIDS...MAY STRETCH THE SLGT CHC A HAIR CLOSER
TO THE COAST....BUT THAS`S ABOUT IT. TEMPS LOOK FINE...L-M90S OVER
THE COASTAL COS AND 95-96F INLAND...A FEW U90S IN NORMALLY HOTTER
LOCALES.
&&
.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 PSBL MLB-SUA AS DIURNAL CU
FIELD DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF ECSB. ISOLD SHRA/TS PSBL...BUT LIKELY
WEST OF THE COASTAL AERODROMES. 12Z HRRR SUGGEST BEST CHC FOR TS
NEAR LATE DAY COLLISION NEAR KLEE-KISM.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WIND FLOW AOB10KT ABOUT SFC RIDGE AXIS...S-SE TO THE
SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...AND S-SE TO THE NORTH. LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRC WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE ALL AREAS NEAR SHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED UPON CURRENT BUOY OBS...WILL CAP SEAS AT 2FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BOTH THE WNA AND NWPS HAVE BEEN SHOWING AREAS
OF 3FT SEAS OFFSHORE THAT HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP...AND AS THERE IS
NOTHING IN THE BUOY DATA TO SUGGEST HIGHER SEAS CREEPING INTO THE
CWA ATTM.
&&
UPDATE...CRISTALDI
RADAR/AVIATION...MOSES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015/
TUE-WED...
ZONAL JET PATTERN OVER THE NRN TIER STATES WILL PERSIST INTO
MIDWEEK. THE JET WILL PUSH A WEAK H100-H70 CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE N ATLC...FORCING IT TO ABANDON ITS SRN TROF EXTENSION OVER
THE MID ATLC. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL DAMPEN OUT BY DAYBREAK
TUE...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE/DEEP SOUTH. H30-H20 JET ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF UNDERGOING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING THRU MIDWEEK.
LATEST STREAM LINE ANALYSIS OF THE H100-H70 LYR OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC REVEALS NO MEANINGFUL ERLY WAVE ACTIVITY OUT TO PUERTO RICO...
SUGGESTING THAT ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS N THE RESULTING E/SE
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...BUT STILL DEEP ENOUGH
TO PROMOTE THE EARLY FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY FOCUSING DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA.
BAHAMAS/HISPANIOLA WILL BE SOURCE REGION ONCE THE RIDGE LIFTS
NWD...AN AREA CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SUPPRESSION DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A CLOSED TUTT CIRCULATION N OF PUERTO RICO.
FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIG UPR LVL MOISTURE ACRS
THE DEEP SOUTH/GOMEX REGION THAT WILL LEND ITSELF TO THE FORMATION
OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WOULD TEND TO DELAY SFC HEATING
ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. INDEED...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.7"-1.9" RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA... MUCH
OF IT IS TRAPPED IN AN H40-H20 SATURATION LYR WHILE THE H85-H50
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF DRY AIR.
WITH SATURATED UPR LYRS...DRY MID LYRS...AND LIGHT BUT DEEP ERLY
FLOW...POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. WILL GO WITH THE USUAL
EAST/WEST DISTRIBUTION...KEEPING 20/10 POPS IN FOR THE COAST AND
30/20 INTERIOR THRU THE DAY/EVNG HRS RESPECTIVELY. TEMPS CONT ABV
AVG WITH MAXES IN THE L90 ALONG THE COAST AND M90S INTERIOR...MINS
L/M70S AREAWIDE.
THU-SUN...
INCREASING PRECIP TREND THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
ZONAL JET BRINGS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION EN ROUTE FOR NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC FOR THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROF WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF UPROOTING THE
DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ATLC RIDGE THRU WEEK`S END...IT WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPRESS ITS AXIS BACK TO THE S.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE AXIS DRIFTING ACRS CENTRAL FL
THRU THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...THEN INTO S FL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S BY SUNSET THU...THEN TO
THE SW BY DAYBREAK SAT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL SHIFT OF HIGHEST
DIURNAL POPS FROM THE INTERIOR COUNTIES BACK TO THE E FL COAST.
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG WITH MAXES L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF KSFB-KMCO CORRIDOR
AND MOVE WEST TWD KLEE BY 22Z-02Z AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR
CSTL TERMINALS THOUGH MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION TRY TO MAKE IT BACK
TWD KDAB VCNTY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 1-2 FT
TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.
TUE-FRI...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK. ATLC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA THRU MIDWEEK...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE THRU MID WEEK. WINDS
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE S/SW INTO WEEK`S END AS A FRONTAL TROF
PRESSES INTO THE MIDWEST/NEW ENGLAND REGION AND SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. SEAS 2-3FT THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEK...OCNL 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AT ANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES BUT HIGH TEMPS MAY COME WITHIN A ONE TO TWO DEGREES AT DAYTONA
BEACH AND ORLANDO.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
DAYTONA BEACH 96 IN 2009.
ORLANDO INTL 98 IN 1987.
MELBOURNE 99 IN 2009.
VERO BEACH 102 IN 2009.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
603 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY
FORMING OVER EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
THIS MORNING MOST AREAS AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM
BUFKIT. NCEP HIGH RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HAD INITIALIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION VERY GOOD AND APPEARED TO BB HANDLING STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION WELL. MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF STORMS TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES. COORDINATED SEVERE CHANCES WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN REGARD TO THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
CONCERN WITH ONGOING FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PRIMARY
FORECAST FOCUS ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY IS STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY AS
DRY...COOL LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES APPEAR POISED TO CAUSE IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD
ADVANCE OF LOW LEVEL THETAE BOUNDARY FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE POPS RETURNING ACROSS
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MID MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP RAMP OF S-SW LLJ.
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100
KNOT GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY TAKE THE SHAPE OF ANOTHER MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. PROLONGED
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASING TO 12-13K FT SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL IN ORDER.
SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR DEPENDING ON EXACT ORIENTATION OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE AXIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST
PERHAPS SOUTHERN HALF WITH BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR
SEVERE THREAT. BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY SHIFT SOUTH OF
LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE FACTORS REGARDING UPSTREAM
EVOLUTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE BY FRIDAY AS FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AGAIN. COOLER TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID OPT TO KEEP BROAD BRUSH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING OVER
EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT SBN FROM 15Z TO 19Z AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM BUFKIT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND OR AFTER
03Z...SO PLACED TIMING OF STORMS IN TAFS TONIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
A broad upper level ridge continues to extend from the southwestern
US east into the southern plains. An upper level trough was moving
eastward across the northern plains and southern Canada. A broad
band of stronger mid and upper level westerly flow continued on the
north side of the upper level ridge across the central and northern
plains.
As the northern plains H5 trough moves east into the upper Midwest
and northern Great Lakes states, a surface cold front across SD will
move southward across NE and into northern KS by late this afternoon.
A surface and 850mb trough extended from an area of low pressure
across southern SD, southwest across western KS. The surface/850mb
trough will slowly shift east across eastern NE into central KS
during the late afternoon hours. Southwesterly 850mb winds will
continue to advect deep moisture and warm air northeast across the
CWA. south-southwest winds will increase by the mid morning hours to
20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 30 to 40 MPH. Forecast soundings show
boundary layer mixing to be around 850mb across the eastern counties
of the CWA with the mixed boundary layer reaching around 800mb
across the southwest counties. Given 850mb temps of 24 to 27
degrees, most areas should reach the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the southwest counties. Given
dewpoints from the upper 60s to lower 70s most area will see heat
indices reach the 104 to 109 degree range this afternoon. Therefore,
I will keep the heat advisory going for this afternoon. The surface
cold front will move into northern counties of the CWA this
afternoon
Once again there are various model solutions to the
location of developing thunderstorms along the surface front late
this afternoon. The ARW, ECMWF and GFS show the CAP holding across
the CWA with the tail end line of storms developing southwest along
the front into northwest MO. The NAM, RAP and NMM show isolated
thunderstorms developing along the front from northeast KS,
southwest into the central counties of the CWA. If thunderstorms do
develop they will be strong to severe given an environment ahead of
the front with 5,000 to 6,000 J/KG of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 KT of sfc
to 6KM effective shear. The primary hazards from any organized
updraft rotating updraft will be large hail, despite the warmer
temperatures aloft, and damaging wind gusts.
The isolated storms should weaken
near sunset as the surface front pushes south of I-70 and then
become stationary. Elevated showers and thunderstorms may redevelop
later Tonight across the CWA as the veered 850mb winds begin to back
to more of a southerly directions, which may provide for isentropic
lift north of the boundary. However, there will not be much upper
level support as an H5 ridge axis begins to amplify across the high
plains. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 60s along the NE border
with lower 70s across east central KS.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
Some 700-850mb moisture convergence takes place over mainly northern
locations Tuesday north of the front, with modest though somewhat
deep isentropic upglide on 315 and 310K surfaces. Elevated CAPE of
around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of around 40kt progged by NAM
and GFS could support at least brief severe storms. Have dropped
temps a few degrees in increasing agreement in some precip and
cloud, though gradient could easily be much stronger than forecast.
Convergence shifts northeast in the afternoon and evening hours for
diminishing chances. Deep southwest low level flow brings warmer air
back in for Wednesday. Air temps should easily reach the 90s, though
persistent trajectories from the southwest from earlier periods
should keep dewpoints somewhat lower and apparent temps around 100.
Next front sinks south through eastern Kansas Thursday into Friday
with upper ridge beginning to build over the western ConUS. Cooling
mid level temps and deeper moisture should support a more widespread
precip event, with wind fields not supporting much in way of severe
storms. Front continues south in increasingly amplified upper flow
with dropping to below normal levels for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. South-southwest winds
will pick up after 14Z to 15 KTS to 20 KTS...with gusts to 20 KTS
to 25 KTS through the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop between 00Z-04Z TUE, though the better chances will be
north and northeast of the terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ010>012-020>024-026-034>036-038>040-054>056.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1156 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Sent another set of zones out to remove the morning shower wording.
Updated at 850 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Complex from earlier is fading fast, and have pulled thunder wording
from the rest of the morning. Still do not see any upper level
feature to enhance precip chances today, and latest HRRR is
seemingly the only model handling current feature well. It`s
forecast remains dry the rest of the day as well, so have kept in a
dry afternoon forecast. Once these clouds dissipate, we should warm
to around 90 degrees this afternoon, with heat indices topping out
in the mid to upper 90s. Perhaps a spot or two will touch 100.
Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The current complex of showers/storms over southern IN/central KY is
weakening and will continue to do so as it moves east into east
central KY. The current forecast handles this well.
Some of the latest high-res models indicates another upper level
shortwave could cause another complex of storms this afternoon.
Will stick with the majority of models giving a dry forecast for now
but it is something to watch as this pattern contains many subtle
waves.
Also will issue an SPS for heat indices maxing out just over 100
degrees each afternoon through Thurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Updated at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong Storms Possible Early this Morning...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid level shortwave which was producing
showers/storms over southern IL/southwest IN early this morning.
This wave looks to continue to push ESE through the Ohio Valley
through the morning hours. Mesoanalysis shows minimal CAPE values
over our region except for an area south of an Evansville to E-town
to Lake Cumberland line where elevated mixed layer CAPE values were
running around 500-1500 J/KG. An effective bulk shear axis of 35-40
kts was pointed southeast from Evansville along that same area.
While the upper level shortwave may support the current complex of
storms as it moves ESE along the I-64 corridor, we would expect
perhaps some weakening due to a less favorable environment. The
latest radar trends indicate some southward develop from the ongoing
complex which may become a trend as we go through the morning hours
with the better environment SSE of the current complex. As we saw
yesterday evening, mesoscale boundaries will have the ability to
increase storm strength as they collide with ongoing convection.
Overall feel that storms this morning will remain sub-severe with
wind gusts up to 50 mph and perhaps some small hail. However, can`t
rule out an isld severe storm...a 60 mph gust was measured around 2
am EDT/1 am CDT in Robinson, IL. Also, storms will continue to
produce a lot of lightning and very heavy downpours. If current
timing holds, this complex of storms should be clear of the area by
early afternoon.
For the rest of the afternoon and tonight, upper level ridging
should build into the region enough to result in dry conditions.
High temps should reach the lower 90s as skies become only partly
cloudy this afternoon. Heat indices will max out in the 98-102
range this afternoon. Tonight we won`t see much of a cool down with
the hot, humid airmass staying in place. Expect lows in the low to
mid 70s.
Tuesday a sfc front and upper level shortwave trough will drop south
into the Ohio Valley. With such a warm/moist/unstable airmass ahead
of it, strong to severe storms will be on the table. The main
threats will be damaging winds and large hail in addition to
torrential downpours. Storms should enter southern Indiana by late
morning limiting high temps to the upper 80s. However, low to mid
90s look likely for most of central KY. Heat indices will again top
out in the upper 90s to low 100s Tue afternoon.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Upper level ridging will be entrenched across the southern CONUS at
the beginning of the long term period. A cold front moving south
across the area Tuesday will stall out as it runs into this ridging.
Storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday evening. These storms should
gradually weaken into the late evening to overnight hours as daytime
heating wanes. Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper
80s to lower 90s with storms firing up along the washed out boundary
across central Kentucky. Thursday will be more of the same as
temperatures rise into the lower 90s. Heat index values each
afternoon Wednesday and Thursday will peak in the mid 90s to lower
100s. With these heat indices caution should be exercised during the
afternoon hours for those who are outside.
Friday into Friday night should actually see a transition into a bit
cooler pattern. A low pressure system will track northeast across
the lower Ohio Valley Friday night and drag a cold front through on
Saturday. Ahead of the cold front at least a portion of the region
will be in the warm sector on Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Storms will develop Friday and continue overnight as the low moves
through. Though it is fairly far out in the forecast period, it is
possible some of the storms could become strong. In addition, with
precipitable water values around 2 inches, rainfall with the storms
will be moderate to heavy at times. Rain should finally come to an
end by Saturday afternoon/evening, with scattered storms developing
again on Sunday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday in the wake of the
cold front will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
A complex of showers/storms was decreasing in strength this morning
as it crosses I-65. Expect another hr or so of showers with
embedded t-storms at SDF likely not causing any restrictions or
perhaps just brief MVFR. VCSH will be possible at LEX between
12-14Z, but the complex will likely diminish almost completely
before reaching LEX. The rest of the TAF period is VFR. Some
models indicate we could see additional showers/storms today if we
can get a shortwave to kick off convection. However, confidence is
very low at this time with most models remaining dry so will leave
the TAFs dry.
SSW winds will be gusty this afternoon outside of any convection
with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS. ALSO
FRESHENED UP ZONE WORDING AND REMOVED FOG. LITTLE IF ANYTHING
LEFT IN OUR AREA TO INDICATE STORM COMPLEXES ROLLED THROUGH CNTRL
KY LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME
REGENERATION OF STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WHAT
MAY BE A WEAK SFC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY.
BUT OTHER MODELS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS POSSIBILITY. ELONGATED RIDGE
FROM THE WEST DOES BEGIN AN ATTEMPT AT NOSING ITS WAY BACK INTO
OUR AREA TODAY WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE DISCONTINUITY IN NEAR TERM
SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN FIRE. FOR
NOW WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC ISOLD POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS WEAKENING FAST AND PROBABLY WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE THAT TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA HAS DEVELOPED ON A
NARROW BELT OF MORE MOIST 850 MB AIR OVERLAPPING MUCAPE VALUES OF
OVER 1000 J/KG. THE RAP INDICATES THIS BELT OF RICHER/MORE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER IN SOME FORM OR
FASHION AND MAKING IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY AFTER DAWN. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY
WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CAP BREAKS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH SBCAPE OVER 4000
J/KG...SO ANY STORM WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY. WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 70 T0 75 DEGREE RANGE...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND TO AROUND
100 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THANKS TO PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
PATTERN WILL THEN AMPLIFY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. DETAILS ON HOW THE AMPLIFICATION EVOLVES WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...SO
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST...WITH LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE AT SOME POINT.
TROUGHING WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
EARLY. JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR WESTERN SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
852 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 850 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Complex from earlier is fading fast, and have pulled thunder wording
from the rest of the morning. Still do not see any upper level
feature to enhance precip chances today, and latest HRRR is
seemingly the only model handling current feature well. It`s
forecast remains dry the rest of the day as well, so have kept in a
dry afternoon forecast. Once these clouds dissipate, we should warm
to around 90 degrees this afternoon, with heat indices topping out
in the mid to upper 90s. Perhaps a spot or two will touch 100.
Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The current complex of showers/storms over southern IN/central KY is
weakening and will continue to do so as it moves east into east
central KY. The current forecast handles this well.
Some of the latest high-res models indicates another upper level
shortwave could cause another complex of storms this afternoon.
Will stick with the majority of models giving a dry forecast for now
but it is something to watch as this pattern contains many subtle
waves.
Also will issue an SPS for heat indices maxing out just over 100
degrees each afternoon through Thurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Updated at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong Storms Possible Early this Morning...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid level shortwave which was producing
showers/storms over southern IL/southwest IN early this morning.
This wave looks to continue to push ESE through the Ohio Valley
through the morning hours. Mesoanalysis shows minimal CAPE values
over our region except for an area south of an Evansville to E-town
to Lake Cumberland line where elevated mixed layer CAPE values were
running around 500-1500 J/KG. An effective bulk shear axis of 35-40
kts was pointed southeast from Evansville along that same area.
While the upper level shortwave may support the current complex of
storms as it moves ESE along the I-64 corridor, we would expect
perhaps some weakening due to a less favorable environment. The
latest radar trends indicate some southward develop from the ongoing
complex which may become a trend as we go through the morning hours
with the better environment SSE of the current complex. As we saw
yesterday evening, mesoscale boundaries will have the ability to
increase storm strength as they collide with ongoing convection.
Overall feel that storms this morning will remain sub-severe with
wind gusts up to 50 mph and perhaps some small hail. However, can`t
rule out an isld severe storm...a 60 mph gust was measured around 2
am EDT/1 am CDT in Robinson, IL. Also, storms will continue to
produce a lot of lightning and very heavy downpours. If current
timing holds, this complex of storms should be clear of the area by
early afternoon.
For the rest of the afternoon and tonight, upper level ridging
should build into the region enough to result in dry conditions.
High temps should reach the lower 90s as skies become only partly
cloudy this afternoon. Heat indices will max out in the 98-102
range this afternoon. Tonight we won`t see much of a cool down with
the hot, humid airmass staying in place. Expect lows in the low to
mid 70s.
Tuesday a sfc front and upper level shortwave trough will drop south
into the Ohio Valley. With such a warm/moist/unstable airmass ahead
of it, strong to severe storms will be on the table. The main
threats will be damaging winds and large hail in addition to
torrential downpours. Storms should enter southern Indiana by late
morning limiting high temps to the upper 80s. However, low to mid
90s look likely for most of central KY. Heat indices will again top
out in the upper 90s to low 100s Tue afternoon.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Upper level ridging will be entrenched across the southern CONUS at
the beginning of the long term period. A cold front moving south
across the area Tuesday will stall out as it runs into this ridging.
Storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday evening. These storms should
gradually weaken into the late evening to overnight hours as daytime
heating wanes. Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper
80s to lower 90s with storms firing up along the washed out boundary
across central Kentucky. Thursday will be more of the same as
temperatures rise into the lower 90s. Heat index values each
afternoon Wednesday and Thursday will peak in the mid 90s to lower
100s. With these heat indices caution should be exercised during the
afternoon hours for those who are outside.
Friday into Friday night should actually see a transition into a bit
cooler pattern. A low pressure system will track northeast across
the lower Ohio Valley Friday night and drag a cold front through on
Saturday. Ahead of the cold front at least a portion of the region
will be in the warm sector on Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Storms will develop Friday and continue overnight as the low moves
through. Though it is fairly far out in the forecast period, it is
possible some of the storms could become strong. In addition, with
precipitable water values around 2 inches, rainfall with the storms
will be moderate to heavy at times. Rain should finally come to an
end by Saturday afternoon/evening, with scattered storms developing
again on Sunday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday in the wake of the
cold front will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
A complex of showers/storms was decreasing in strength this morning
as it crosses I-65. Expect another hr or so of showers with
embedded t-storms at SDF likely not causing any restrictions or
perhaps just brief MVFR. VCSH will be possible at LEX between
12-14Z, but the complex will likely diminish almost completely
before reaching LEX. The rest of the TAF period is VFR. Some
models indicate we could see additional showers/storms today if we
can get a shortwave to kick off convection. However, confidence is
very low at this time with most models remaining dry so will leave
the TAFs dry.
SSW winds will be gusty this afternoon outside of any convection
with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS WEAKENING FAST AND PROBABLY WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE THAT TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA HAS DEVELOPED ON A
NARROW BELT OF MORE MOIST 850 MB AIR OVERLAPPING MUCAPE VALUES OF
OVER 1000 J/KG. THE RAP INDICATES THIS BELT OF RICHER/MORE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER IN SOME FORM OR
FASHION AND MAKING IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY AFTER DAWN. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY
WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CAP BREAKS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH SBCAPE OVER 4000
J/KG...SO ANY STORM WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY. WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 70 T0 75 DEGREE RANGE...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND TO AROUND
100 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THANKS TO PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
PATTERN WILL THEN AMPLIFY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. DETAILS ON HOW THE AMPLIFICATION EVOLVES WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...SO
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST...WITH LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE AT SOME POINT.
TROUGHING WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
EARLY. JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR WESTERN SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1201 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. CLOUDS HAVE THINNED...BUT SUNSHINE AND COLD POOL ALOFT ARE
COMBINING TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM THESE...ESPECIALLY FAR WRN ME AS THEY DRIFT OFF THE
ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE IN THE MTNS.
PREV DISC...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...EXITING INTO EASTERN AREAS...WITH A SECOND BATCH OF
SHOWERS NOW CROSSING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THIS LARGE BAND EXITING OFF THE COAST BY
12Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
CENTRAL MAINE TODAY.
ABSENCE OF NORTHWEST GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPING AND ONLY THE ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. CU WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD POOL
REMAINING ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED DOWNWARDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS IS A COOLER FORECAST...HOWEVER SOUTHERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...CURSORY GLANCE AT OVERNIGHT HI-RES GUIDANCE AND 12Z NAM
RUN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATEST QUESTION REGARDING THREAT AREA REVOLVES AROUND
MORNING...ELEVATED...NON-SEVERE TSTMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS
FEATURE NEWD THRU NRN ZONES...LEAVING THE S MAINLY RAIN AND CLOUD
FREE. THIS WOULD ALLOW AMPLE HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME
GUIDANCE...LIKE THE 12Z NAM...BRINGS IT MORE EWD AND THRU THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD DELAY DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASE THE SEVERE THREAT...OR PUSH IT FARTHER S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PATCHY FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT
WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT THE
WARM SECTOR REACHES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS DEVELOP A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS WAVE...CAPE VALUES
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG AS STRONG JET MAX ENTERS THE
REGION ALOFT. THIS WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WHICH SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
IN THEIR DISCUSSIONS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...ANY TRAINING STORMS COULD DROP LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING QUIET
AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
VERY WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S.
ONLY POSSIBLE SPOILER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE. DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF`S TAKE ON THIS...MAY INCLUDE
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG IT. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW MAY HAVE OCEAN STRATUS FLIRTING WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS IFR AND LIFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPING.
ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1128 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT IN WESTERN AREAS AND
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST OBS HAVE INDICATED THE DISSIPATION OF FOG AND
MOST OF THE DZ AS WINDS BECAME NRLY OVR THE LAST 3 TO 6 HRS ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHWRS FROM A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF RNFL OVR NRN NH AND WRN ME BEGINNING TO CROSS
OVR INTO THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF OUR FA.
LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF SHOWS SOME OF THIS SHWR
ACTIVITY TO CONT OVR MSLY OUR SW ZONES INTO THE MORN HRS AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROF CROSSES W TO E ACROSS THE FA...WITH UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND LCLY MORE OF RNFL OVR LCTNS BORDERING MID ME.
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
AFTN AS THE UPPER TROF SLIDES E OF THE FA INTO THE MARITIMES...
WITH DECREASING CLDNSS BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVR MOST LCTNS. A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD THEN PROVIDE FAIR SKIES WITH CLR-PTLY CLDY
SKIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
A MDTLY STRONG S/WV TROF AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ENE
FROM S CNTRL CAN INTO QB WILL BRING AN INCREASING BL-850MB RETURN
SSW WIND LATE TNGT...WITH SREF CATEGORY CLG PROBS SUGGESTING THE
NWRD ADVC OF MARINE ST FROM THE NRN GULF OF ME INTO OUR FA BY
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS MAY BE IN ADVC OF THE HI/MID CLD CANOPY AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
HI TEMPS TDY SHOULD BE WARMER BY 5 TO 10 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO YSTDY...BUT STILL 4 TO 8 DEG F BELOW AVG FOR THIS TM
OF SEASON. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLD CVR LATE AT NGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ENSURE THE MORNING STARTS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND THESE STABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RAIN WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE
SOME NEGATIVE TILT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET. THESE FACTORS ALSO POINT TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CASE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
FURTHER STRENGTHENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AND DECENT MUCAPE. MOST
AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE THE BETTER PART OF A HALF INCH WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF
THE DOWN EAST REGION IN THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL TEND TO LINGER
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLEARING ARRIVES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW HUMIDITY. WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE A DETERMENT
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 70S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD
MARINE AIR. A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MINOR UPPER
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BUT WILL NOT ASSIGN POPS ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS TOWARDS 30 MPH...BUT WINDS
WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO COMMENCE
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST SITES WILL BE RECOVERING FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN
TO VFR THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO THIS EVE...WITH
SREF MODEL CLG CATEGORY PROBS SUGGESTING THE RETURN OF MARINE LOW
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ST FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE TNGT AS
RETURN BL-850MB S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TEMPO IFR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR FROM LATER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD TDY THRU TNGT...WITH ANY LEFT OVR MARINE
FOG LIFTING ERLY THIS MORN. WENT WITH ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE THRU THE NEAR TERM FOR OUR WATERS THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR AN SCA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER 5 FT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ALSO ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF FOG IS ALSO LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
825 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:30 AM UPDATE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE OCCURING IN
WESTERN AREAS SO CUT BACK ON CLOUD COVER JUST A LITTLE BIT TO THE
WEST. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST OBS HAVE INDICATED THE DISSIPATION OF FOG AND
MOST OF THE DZ AS WINDS BECAME NRLY OVR THE LAST 3 TO 6 HRS ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHWRS FROM A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF RNFL OVR NRN NH AND WRN ME BEGINNING TO CROSS
OVR INTO THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF OUR FA.
LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF SHOWS SOME OF THIS SHWR
ACTIVITY TO CONT OVR MSLY OUR SW ZONES INTO THE MORN HRS AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROF CROSSES W TO E ACROSS THE FA...WITH UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND LCLY MORE OF RNFL OVR LCTNS BORDERING MID ME.
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
AFTN AS THE UPPER TROF SLIDES E OF THE FA INTO THE MARITIMES...
WITH DECREASING CLDNSS BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVR MOST LCTNS. A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD THEN PROVIDE FAIR SKIES WITH CLR-PTLY CLDY
SKIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
A MDTLY STRONG S/WV TROF AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ENE
FROM S CNTRL CAN INTO QB WILL BRING AN INCREASING BL-850MB RETURN
SSW WIND LATE TNGT...WITH SREF CATEGORY CLG PROBS SUGGESTING THE
NWRD ADVC OF MARINE ST FROM THE NRN GULF OF ME INTO OUR FA BY
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS MAY BE IN ADVC OF THE HI/MID CLD CANOPY AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
HI TEMPS TDY SHOULD BE WARMER BY 5 TO 10 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO YSTDY...BUT STILL 4 TO 8 DEG F BELOW AVG FOR THIS TM
OF SEASON. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLD CVR LATE AT NGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ENSURE THE MORNING STARTS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND THESE STABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RAIN WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE
SOME NEGATIVE TILT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET. THESE FACTORS ALSO POINT TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CASE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
FURTHER STRENGTHENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AND DECENT MUCAPE. MOST
AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE THE BETTER PART OF A HALF INCH WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF
THE DOWN EAST REGION IN THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL TEND TO LINGER
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLEARING ARRIVES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW HUMIDITY. WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE A DETERMENT
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 70S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD
MARINE AIR. A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MINOR UPPER
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BUT WILL NOT ASSIGN POPS ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS TOWARDS 30 MPH...BUT WINDS
WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO COMMENCE
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST SITES WILL BE RECOVERING FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN
TO VFR THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO THIS EVE...WITH
SREF MODEL CLG CATEGORY PROBS SUGGESTING THE RETURN OF MARINE LOW
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ST FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE TNGT AS
RETURN BL-850MB S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TEMPO IFR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR FROM LATER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD TDY THRU TNGT...WITH ANY LEFT OVR MARINE
FOG LIFTING ERLY THIS MORN. WENT WITH ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE THRU THE NEAR TERM FOR OUR WATERS THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR AN SCA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER 5 FT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ALSO ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF FOG IS ALSO LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
722 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVECT AND DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. THIS PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
PREV DISC...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...EXITING INTO EASTERN AREAS...WITH A SECOND BATCH OF
SHOWERS NOW CROSSING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THIS LARGE BAND EXITING OFF THE COAST BY
12Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
CENTRAL MAINE TODAY.
ABSENCE OF NORTHWEST GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPING AND ONLY THE ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. CU WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD POOL
REMAINING ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED DOWNWARDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS IS A COOLER FORECAST...HOWEVER SOUTHERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT THE
WARM SECTOR REACHES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS DEVELOP A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARYS THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS WAVE...CAPE VALUES
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG AS STRONG JET MAX ENTERS THE
REGION ALOFT. THIS WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WHICH SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
IN THEIR DISCUSSIONS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...ANY TRAINING STORMS COULD DROP LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING QUIET
AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
VERY WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S.
ONLY POSSIBLE SPOILER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE. DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF`S TAKE ON THIS...MAY INCLUDE
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG IT. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW MAY HAVE OCEAN STRATUS FLIRTING WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS IFR AND LIFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPING.
ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
622 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE: BASED ON RADAR REF INTENSITY AND CVRG...WE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ERLY THIS MORN FOR PTNS OF
XTRM SW PTNS OF OUR FA. CORRESPONDING 6 HRLY QPFS WERE ALSO
INCREASED TO REF MDT RNFL RATES TIL ABOUT 9 AM EDT.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST OBS HAVE INDICATED THE DISSIPATION OF FOG AND
MOST OF THE DZ AS WINDS BECAME NRLY OVR THE LAST 3 TO 6 HRS ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHWRS FROM A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF RNFL OVR NRN NH AND WRN ME BEGINNING TO CROSS
OVR INTO THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF OUR FA.
LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF SHOWS SOME OF THIS SHWR
ACTIVITY TO CONT OVR MSLY OUR SW ZONES INTO THE MORN HRS AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROF CROSSES W TO E ACROSS THE FA...WITH UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND LCLY MORE OF RNFL OVR LCTNS BORDERING MID ME.
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
AFTN AS THE UPPER TROF SLIDES E OF THE FA INTO THE MARITIMES...
WITH DECREASING CLDNSS BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVR MOST LCTNS. A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD THEN PROVIDE FAIR SKIES WITH CLR-PTLY CLDY
SKIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
A MDTLY STRONG S/WV TROF AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ENE
FROM S CNTRL CAN INTO QB WILL BRING AN INCREASING BL-850MB RETURN
SSW WIND LATE TNGT...WITH SREF CATEGORY CLG PROBS SUGGESTING THE
NWRD ADVC OF MARINE ST FROM THE NRN GULF OF ME INTO OUR FA BY
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS MAY BE IN ADVC OF THE HI/MID CLD CANOPY AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
HI TEMPS TDY SHOULD BE WARMER BY 5 TO 10 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO YSTDY...BUT STILL 4 TO 8 DEG F BELOW AVG FOR THIS TM
OF SEASON. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLD CVR LATE AT NGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ENSURE THE MORNING STARTS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND THESE STABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RAIN WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE
SOME NEGATIVE TILT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET. THESE FACTORS ALSO POINT TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CASE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
FURTHER STRENGTHENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AND DECENT MUCAPE. MOST
AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE THE BETTER PART OF A HALF INCH WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF
THE DOWN EAST REGION IN THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL TEND TO LINGER
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLEARING ARRIVES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW HUMIDITY. WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE A DETERMENT
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 70S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD
MARINE AIR. A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MINOR UPPER
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BUT WILL NOT ASSIGN POPS ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS TOWARDS 30 MPH...BUT WINDS
WILL DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO COMMENCE
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST SITES WILL BE RECOVERING FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN
TO VFR THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO THIS EVE...WITH
SREF MODEL CLG CATEGORY PROBS SUGGESTING THE RETURN OF MARINE LOW
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR ST FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE TNGT AS
RETURN BL-850MB S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TEMPO IFR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR FROM LATER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD TDY THRU TNGT...WITH ANY LEFT OVR MARINE
FOG LIFTING ERLY THIS MORN. WENT WITH ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE THRU THE NEAR TERM FOR OUR WATERS THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR AN SCA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER 5 FT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ALSO ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF FOG IS ALSO LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
937 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPSTREAM MCS IS CROSSING WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN/ADJOINING AREAS.
NORTHERN MI IS PRESENTLY QUITE COOL/DRY/STABLE. INSTABILITY/
MOISTURE WILL BUBBLE UP IN THE SOUTH HALF OF LOWER MI BEFORE THE
MCS ARRIVES (SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NEARING 70F IN FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER). BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
BUILD HERE BEFORE THE MCS ARRIVES (DOESN/T HELP THAT WE ARE ABOUT
TO START CLOUDING OVER). SHEAR IS ALSO ONLY JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE AT MIDDAY.
SO SHOWERS/A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE LIKELY MIDDAY INTO MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING MCS. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. A STRAY SVR STORM ISN/T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT SVR WX WITH THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT IS UNLIKELY.
OUR SVR THREAT LOOKS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MCS...UP UNTIL WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. OF
COURSE...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SUBSTANTIAL AND RAPID
DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WINDOW FOR SUCH IS SHORT. BUT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD
ROCKET NORTHWARD AS SW 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT BY EARLY
EVENING. IN PARTICULAR...ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THAT WARM FRONT
(AS THE SPC HRRR WANTS TO DO) COULD POSE THE ENTIRE GAMUT OF SVR
WX THREATS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER USUAL...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRETTY QUIET OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
LAKE HURON...AND STRETCHING NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SYNOPTICALLY...A DEVELOPING AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN SD...THROUGH IOWA AND
DOWN ACROSS IL/IN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SD. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION IS STRONG INTO SD WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE IMPRESSIVE.
STEEP 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM LAPSE RATES...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS CROSSING
MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MCV...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION WAS ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...MORE SPOTTY STORMS IN IOWA...ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NEARING NRN MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
SHOWERS IN MN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
THE MORNING...DRIVEN BY THE ADVANCING MCV...DESPITE A FAIRLY DRY
00Z APX SOUNDING AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. MEANWHILE...THE STORMS
FROM SD WILL ADVANCE/DEVELOP FURTHER...INTO SRN MN/IOWA AS THE LLJ
VEERS MORE WEST...AND WHERE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHIFTS.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES...A
MOST COMMON PLACE WHERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER AND CROSSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...DEEPENING THE SFC LOW PRESSURE...LIFTING IN INTO
ONTARIO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WORK IN OVERHEAD...90-100KT
UPPER JET AND DIVERGENCE...AND 35-45KT LLJ POINTING INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS IDEA IS FOR STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA OVER US
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT UP INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHILE THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING AND EXITING
OVERNIGHT. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE INCREDIBLE AT 60+ KTS WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITIES TO 300+ M2/S2 WITH
THE WARM FRONT. REALLY STILL TOO EARLY TO SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER
SITUATION...AND THE WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...AND THUS...HOW BELIEVABLE THAT THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT UP
HERE. THIS ALSO PLAYS INTO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE.
THE SHORTWAVE COULD CONCEIVABLY FORCE FEED THE WARM FRONT UP
HERE...BUT WE WILL REALLY BE NEEDING THE MORNING WARM FRONTAL
STORMS/CLOUDS/PRECIP TO NOT STALL THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
RIGHT NOW...THIS IS NOT THE CASE WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION
OVER IOWA...AND THE BULK OF THE STORMS WELL WEST OF HERE. SO...AM
STILL GOING TO LEAN TO THE IDEA OF SURFACE BASED HEATING AND A
JUMP OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS GENERATES 1000-2000
J/KG...ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LARGE HAIL...AND
THE HIGH HELICITIES WITH THE WARM FRONT ALSO PROMOTES POTENTIAL
TORNADOS. THIS SET UP LOOKS BETTER THAN MOST TIMES AROUND NRN
MICHIGAN. IF IT IS TO OCCUR...THOSE CLOUDS CANNOT PUT A LID ON SFC
HEATING...AND AGAIN...DONT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN (FOR NOW).
NRN MICHIGAN FOLKS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIALLY VOLATILE
SEVERE WEATHER SET UP...AND REMAIN ALERT TO THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS NRN MICHIGAN IN A SLIGHT
RISK EVERYWHERE...WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AND COLDER/DRIER AIR
SWEEPS IN...ENDING THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. INCREASING RIDGING
(AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT) ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEEPEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE
TIMING OF POSSIBLE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE STRATUS
TO START OFF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY LESS MUGGY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE (PW/S RISING TO NEAR 1.25
INCHES BY 12Z THU). MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS ON THE MEAGER SIDE). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE
MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. NORTHERN MICHIGAN THEN ENDS
UP BETWEEN JET STREAMS AFTER THAT (WITH ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH) SO ONLY SLIGHT OR LOWER END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE THEN HINTING AT
POSSIBLE DEEPER TROUGHING NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT BUILDS OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER
JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BIG ISSUE IS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT IN THE EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL
STORM ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WIND/HAIL AND TORNADOS ARE
ALL POSSIBLE PROVIDED WE CAN GET UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/SUN. ALL OF THIS PREDICATED UPON SHOWER AND STORM
EVOLUTION ACROSS SRN MN/NE IOWA (WHETHER THIS AND OTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BRING IN CLOUDS AND A SUBSEQUENT LESS
UNSTABLE SCENARIO BY KEEPING THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF US). BIGGEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONGEST
WIND FIELDS AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY EXIT AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD...AND THEN ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SE AND INCREASE TO SOLID ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MOST NEARSHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MORE CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT (THIS AFTERNOON) AND A FOLLOWING COLD FRONT (THIS
EVENING). AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE LAKES.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
749 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MCS WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF SD EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MUCAPE...STRONG 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVER UPPER MI THE
WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER AND GENERALLY PCPN FREE UNDER SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND OVER LAKE MI AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FM THE
NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...LATEST 03Z SREF ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH MAJORITY OF 00Z AND
06Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE MCS OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE INTO SRN MN AND THE SRN HALF OF WI THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE GRADIENT OF HIGHEST MLCAPE/MUCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW PREV FCST SHIFT WITH SLOWER PCPN
ARRIVAL BACKING OFF PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE NOSE OF
THE IMPINGING 30-40 KT LOW-LVL JET. INCREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF MCS TO THE SW WILL TEND TO LIMIT
EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM REACHING FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST
TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-
1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 55-70KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD COULD
LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH
TROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE EVENING INTO
TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE NW FLOW. MODELS SHOW
THOSE DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY AND ALREADY
LIMITED MOISTURE STAYS OVER THE NRN CWA. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AROUND PEAK HEATING WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER LAND AREAS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NOT REAL SURE ON THE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS MODEL
VARY ON THE TIMING OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FASTER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT MOSTLY DRY THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...SO WILL JUST RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AT KSAW BY 14Z...THEN
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE THUNDER AT TIMES
AT KSAW AND KIWD SO INCLUDED VCTS THERE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT KCMX AT THIS TIME. WILL GET GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT ALL
SITES AND CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL OVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW
35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA
WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1124 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO CREATE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES VALUES TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 104F
TO 109F DURING THOSE TIMES. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE BEACHES TO AROUND 100 WELL INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND
WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DESPITE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR SHOWS VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND THEREFORE ANY
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AND DIE FAIRLY RAPIDLY POSSIBLY PUTTING DOWN A
QUICK DOWNPOUR. OVERALL EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW/PATTERN WILL FEATURE A SUBTLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 593-594DM. THIS
WILL KEEP THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY BUT MORE
LIKELY THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO ECLIPSE TRIPLE DIGITS INLAND WITH UPPER 90S ALONG THE
COAST. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE BIG STORY REMAINS THE PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOME DEGREE. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGHEST
POPS CURRENTLY ARE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES. EITHER SIDE
OF THIS POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM SIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
THE ADDED CONVECTION AND LOWER HEIGHTS...READINGS SCALE BACK
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN WITH LIGHT SW-W WINDS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES INLAND. MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. BEST TIME FRAME FOR VCTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE 17-21Z OR UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MOVES FAR ENOUGH INLAND...AND INLAND TERMINALS 20-24Z.
CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE-SAT WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
BECOMING GUSTY AS THEY BACK SLIGHTLY IN A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
OFF SHORE. OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS UP AROUND 3
TO 4 FT IN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY PUSH YESTERDAY WILL SUBSIDE DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TONIGHT. EXPECT CHOPPIER SEAS IN SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
BACKING OF THE WIND DIRECTION ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS WELL. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FOR A
FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING VIA A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET. OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL COVER THE SEAS...2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME INCREASE TO WARRANT 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
957 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 955 AM MON...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 19-20C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY...UPPER MID/UPPER 90S INLAND. HEAT INDEX
TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR ALL
BUT THE OUTER BANKS...FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109 THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SE
VA...WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY.
THAT AND THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION SO ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL START THE WEEK BUT
BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SW FLOW TO
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOWER 90S
COAST WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL TUESDAY...MAINLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER INLAND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. AS UPPER
HEIGHTS FALL AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT BY
EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 90S...BUT
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH AREAS OF RAIN-COOLED
AIR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF FALLING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST ANYTIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THANKFULLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON NIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS BY
DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW PATCHY IFR/MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR. IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
RAINFALL...PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY
REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS TO IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS AS WEAK BOUNDARY OVER SE VA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD. N/NW WINDS 5-10KT ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
NORTHERN WATERS...AND WSW/SW WINDS 5-15KT SOUTH...WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY TODAY AS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH...LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING S/SW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...AS SEAS CONTINUE AT 2-4FT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WILL SEE SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT
WITH A S/SW WIND FLOW RESUMING BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT AGAIN INCREASES BEHIND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS VIRGINIA
AND HIGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH THE
LATEST WAVE MODELS SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET
BY FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY BY THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY: 6/22
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 97/1994 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 92/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 102/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 94/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1952 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 100/1981 (KNCA AWOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
718 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CONVECTION OVER IA/MN TO SEE IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS ACTIVITY MISSING THE AREA
BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW IT ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED SEVERE
WORDING TO THE EVENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS...A COUPLE ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE
BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS AGAIN DRY. JUST SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RIGHT NOW. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUNDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND IS EXPECTED TO COME
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND IF THIS FRONT WITH INITIATE
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM APPEARS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER
BY DEVELOPING A LOT OF PRECIP BY 00Z. THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA MAINLY DRY AND THIS WILL BE THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED. HAVE
REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY EXCEPT IN
FAR NW OHIO. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TONIGHT. EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT ON SUNSHINE TODAY AND THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD SO NO
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. LOT`S OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY CONCERNING TIMING OF PRECIP. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT
IT WILL RAIN TONIGHT...JUST NOT SURE WHEN. THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS
FIGURING OUT IF THE CONVECTION OVER MN RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT DIVES SE ACROSS THE LAKES TODAY. THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THIS AND WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF HAVING
IT FALL APART BEFORE IT GETS HERE. AT THE SAME TIME THESE MODELS
DEVELOP ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATE
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE HELPED ALONG BY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT INCLUDING A TROUGH. TIME OF DAY WILL WORK IN FAVOR FOR THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES
TO LIKELY MOST OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THEN WILL TRY FOR A 36 TO 42 HOUR DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE RETURN OF THE PRECIP TO THE AREA AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY. A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD SIGNAL THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND KEEP THE PRECIP THREAT GOING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
TROUGHING IN THE EAST BY WEEKS END. THIS WILL SEND A TREND TOWARD
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
AS TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TROUGH SLOWLY BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED AND EVENTUALLY CAUSES
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE
EAST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT COULD SLIP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH...PROBABILITIES WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO FAR THE TREND MAY BE
TO GRADUALLY TAPER THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR KEEPING THE MOISTURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT...UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE ON EXTENT
OF ACTIVITY...WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY AS
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SLIPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY
REACH TOLEDO AND FINDLAY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. TIMING WOULD PUT IT INTO THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO BUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS GOING TO GET STIRRED UP ONCE AGAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SURFACE ISOBAR
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LASTING INTO TUESDAY DUE TO THE
WINDS. WIND DO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKES AREA. BUT
THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS SETTING UP FOR TODAY. BOUNDARY THAT
PUSHED THROUGH THE FA YESTERDAY...STRETCHES BACK TO THE WEST INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IS EVIDENCED BY ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING OUT OF SRN IL INTO KY. FARTHER NW ON THE BOUNDARY IN IA
ANOTHER AREA HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ALL LEADS UP TO A LARGE MCS IN THE
NRN PLAINS. HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM ARE THE QUICKEST AND
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE COMPLEX IN THE NRN
PLAINS. THEY TAKE IT INTO THE SRN PART OF THE LP OF MI BY 21Z.
OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY IS FCST
TO LIFT NWD TODAY. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ON IT.
WENT AHEAD LEANED TOWARDS THE HRRR/NAM SOLUTION AND BROUGHT SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO THE NRN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE N. ELSEWHERE USED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 90 IN THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A CDFNT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FA. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH CAPE FROM
2500 TO 3500 J/KG. FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FROM 45 TO 50 KT. THUS
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY AND SOME
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
WELL SHOULD BE POSSIBLE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM TONIGHT...STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
ON TUESDAY THE CONVECTION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FORM THE LOWER 80S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER
80S IN THE NRN KY. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS TO COME THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH LATER WED INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC
WAVE. ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY BUT FOR NOW HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM VARIOUS SOLNS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH NEXT SFC WAVE PIVOTING
THRU GREAT LAKES. HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS CHANCE CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
WAVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM UPR 70S/NEAR 80 NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET NEXT 24-30 HOURS IS IN STORE FOR THE REGIONS TAF SITES.
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SSW AT 10-12KTS WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT. A PASSING
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MORESO TOWARDS CENTRAL
OHIO. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF WAITING TO
SEE IF THEY DO INITIATE AND IF SO...WHETHER THEY TRACK TOWARDS A
TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND MAY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
627 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CONVECTION OVER IA/MN TO SEE IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS ACTIVITY MISSING THE AREA
BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW IT ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED SEVERE
WORDING TO THE EVENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS...A COUPLE ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE
BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS AGAIN DRY. JUST SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RIGHT NOW. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUNDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND IS EXPECTED TO COME
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND IF THIS FRONT WITH INITIATE
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM APPEARS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER
BY DEVELOPING A LOT OF PRECIP BY 00Z. THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA MAINLY DRY AND THIS WILL BE THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED. HAVE
REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY EXCEPT IN
FAR NW OHIO. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TONIGHT. EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT ON SUNSHINE TODAY AND THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD SO NO
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. LOT`S OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY CONCERNING TIMING OF PRECIP. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT
IT WILL RAIN TONIGHT...JUST NOT SURE WHEN. THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS
FIGURING OUT IF THE CONVECTION OVER MN RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT DIVES SE ACROSS THE LAKES TODAY. THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THIS AND WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF HAVING
IT FALL APART BEFORE IT GETS HERE. AT THE SAME TIME THESE MODELS
DEVELOP ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATE
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE HELPED ALONG BY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT INCLUDING A TROUGH. TIME OF DAY WILL WORK IN FAVOR FOR THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES
TO LIKELY MOST OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THEN WILL TRY FOR A 36 TO 42 HOUR DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE RETURN OF THE PRECIP TO THE AREA AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY. A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD SIGNAL THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND KEEP THE PRECIP THREAT GOING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
TROUGHING IN THE EAST BY WEEKS END. THIS WILL SEND A TREND TOWARD
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
AS TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TROUGH SLOWLY BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED AND EVENTUALLY CAUSES
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE
EAST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT COULD SLIP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH...PROBABILITIES WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO FAR THE TREND MAY BE
TO GRADUALLY TAPER THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR KEEPING THE MOISTURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT...UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE ON EXTENT
OF ACTIVITY...WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY AS
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SLIPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TODAY. FIRST OF ALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SECOND...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A ROUND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING WOULD PUT IT INTO THE
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN THE
MEAN TIME...SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
NON VFR LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE IS GOING TO GET STIRRED UP ONCE AGAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SURFACE ISOBAR
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LASTING INTO TUESDAY DUE TO THE
WINDS. WIND DO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKES AREA. BUT
THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SUNSHINE IS MORE PREVALENT TODAY AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
NORTH MS CONTINUE TO BREAK. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MS DELTA INCLUDING MEMPHIS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST HRRR/RAP DOES INITIATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH BY NOON TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY. 12Z PRECIP H20 AT KLZK HAS INCREASED FROM 1.37 INCHES
TO 1.81 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. KINDEX VALUES ARE GREATER
THAN 30 ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LARGE CAPE
VALUES THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
ALSO NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT CAP YET. STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND PERHAPS THIS
WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS LIKE THE 14Z HRRR INDICATES. FOR NOW WILL ADD A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND MENTION A STRONG STORM IN THE HWO.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CAUSING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S WITH A BAND OF MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AR ACROSS NORTH MS
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN
AND NORTHWEST MS. THIS INCLUDE THE CITIES OF JONESBORO AND
MEMPHIS. HEAT INDEX READING ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105
DEGREES IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
FEED HOTTER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD.
THERE IS A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
AND UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WEAKNESS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. INCLUDED
20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 40.
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 596 DM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LITTLE IF ANY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...AND INCLUDED JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR
NORTHEAST MS. CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE
SAME AS AREA AS TODAY...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE WITH THE REGION FIRMLY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ALONG THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED THESE THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
A LITTLE BIT GUSTY AFTER 17Z ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20
MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL DIE
DOWN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
941 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH ONE MODERATE NARROW BAND OF RAIN ACROSS MAVERICK AND
KINNEY COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS A 700 MB
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH HEATING AND MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...BUT RAIN RATES
SHOULD BE A BIT LESS AND PROBABLY NOT THE SAME AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN AN INCH BUT 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVIEST
STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
TSRA CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE MID MORNING
TIME FRAME AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO HONE IN ON A
PREVAILING LINE.
CIG AND VIS IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS PER
PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH A 4-5 KFT DECK IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE THAN MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...LOCATED SOUTH OF
EAGLE PASS AND NORTHWEST OF LAREDO. A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY OPENING AND MOVING
WEST TUESDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE WEST...DRYING HAS BEEN DELAYED AND MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUES.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA MAY TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. THEN DE-STABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CWA SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR REPEAT TO CONVECTION
FROM YESTERDAY. HRRR AGAIN DEPICTS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH QPF THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF...WHILE GFS AND NAM12 ARE MORE
ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY REGION.
SCATTERED POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
AND WESTWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUICK...HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY
ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ASSUMING THE MID LEVEL LOW DOES MOVE WEST AND OPEN TUESDAY...THERE
SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE...EXPECT CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAK FORCING MAY CONTINUE HIGHER COVERAGE.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF I-35...AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO
PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...REACHING THE
NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY. EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH OR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION LIKE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WOULD ONLY FURTHER INCREASE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 72 90 71 90 / 40 20 20 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 - 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 89 71 89 / 30 20 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 73 89 73 89 / 40 40 30 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 90 71 89 / 30 20 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 89 72 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 - 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 74 90 74 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 74 90 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR/OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD KEEPING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED TODAY IN ANY ONE TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED.
MVFR NOW WILL BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH 20 KNOTS GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH MVFR RETURNING BY
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH
500MB INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWED 1.98 INCHES OF PWAT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP
THROUGH 500MB. EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWED SOUTHEASTERLY STREAMER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY
SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE RAISED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR WHATS FALLING
NOW AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS DID NOT REACH FULL
POTENTIAL TODAY AND WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH TROUGHING OUT WEST INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF.
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. PWATS DO NOT REALLY FALL OFF AND REMAIN IN THE 1.9-
2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH
SFC WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESE. ALONG WITH A LITTLE SPEED
CONVERGENCE THINK THE SEABREEZE WILL GET GOING TUESDAY LATE MORNING
THEN PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND A
DEGREE WARMER ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND TO KEEP
HIGHS FROM REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...NAM AND GFS INDICATE
ANOTHER SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OR A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST MOISTURE
CONTENT PWATS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES AND GOOD INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP.
LIFT WILL BE INITIATED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE AS
WINDS BACK ESE AND WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH AND WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL POP GUIDANCE ALSO ON THE BAND
WAGON WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
BROAD BRUSH OF LOW END CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ LOOK OK AT THIS
TIME WITH POSSIBLE LATER SHIFT BUMPING CHANCES UPWARD.
PRECIPIATION CHANCES FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY WITH
EVEN LOWER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT LOWERS
AND A WESTWARD BUILDING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO WARM THE MID LAYERS
DEVELOPING A WEAK CAP. CAN NOT RULE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG A SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS ONCE AGAIN
SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH GIVING RISE TO ANOTHER SHOT
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH ECMWF KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA MAINTAIN A
MORE DRIER SCENARIO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONAL WITH WARM MUGGY NIGHT
AND HOT HUMID DAYS. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS WITHIN
REASON WITH GUIDANCE ONLY SEPERATE BY A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WINDS WILL REAMIN
AROUND 12 TO 17 KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAK LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND MODERATE TO SLIGHT SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
TSRA CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE MID MORNING
TIME FRAME AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO HONE IN ON A
PREVAILING LINE.
CIG AND VIS IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS PER
PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH A 4-5 KFT DECK IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE THAN MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...LOCATED SOUTH OF
EAGLE PASS AND NORTHWEST OF LAREDO. A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY OPENING AND MOVING
WEST TUESDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE WEST...DRYING HAS BEEN DELAYED AND MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUES.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA MAY TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. THEN DE-STABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CWA SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR REPEAT TO CONVECTION
FROM YESTERDAY. HRRR AGAIN DEPICTS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH QPF THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF...WHILE GFS AND NAM12 ARE MORE
ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY REGION.
SCATTERED POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
AND WESTWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUICK...HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY
ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ASSUMING THE MID LEVEL LOW DOES MOVE WEST AND OPEN TUESDAY...THERE
SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE...EXPECT CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAK FORCING MAY CONTINUE HIGHER COVERAGE.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF I-35...AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO
PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...REACHING THE
NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY. EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH OR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION LIKE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WOULD ONLY FURTHER INCREASE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 72 90 71 90 / 40 20 20 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 20 - 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 71 89 / 30 20 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 73 89 73 89 / 30 40 30 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 90 71 89 / 30 20 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 89 72 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 90 72 89 / 40 20 20 - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 - 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 74 90 74 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 90 73 90 / 40 20 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
307 PM MST MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT WILL RETREAT FROM THE RECORD-TYING VALUES
SEEN LAST WEEK. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM MEXICO...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THERE IS ALSO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SUCH AS GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MONSOON HIGH ACROSS
NM...SPRAWLED OUT EAST TO WEST WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TWC 12Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PWAT OF 1.12
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THEY
WERE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE AZ...BUT WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME INITIATING IN THESE AREAS BUT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY. A
SLIGHT BUMP IN THICKNESSES WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL TAKE A BITE OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ...THOUGH THE LATEST
BLENDS SUGGEST THAT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS AGAIN WARRANTED FOR
SOUTH AND WEST-CENTRAL AZ.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE MONSOON-LIKE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT US THE RECENT STRETCH OF HEAT SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA. GFS/EURO
BL MIXING RATIOS START TO CLIMB TO AROUND 6 G/KG AROUND THE PHOENIX
AREA...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 8 G/KG ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH AND NOT SURPRISINGLY...SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX AND
DESCENDING INTO THE DESERTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPES QUICKLY DROP
OFF TO ZERO AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO SO ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING NEW STORMS AND I MADE SOME
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL NEED ASSESS THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLDU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE FORECAST
PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED...DUST MAY BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE GIVEN THE
DIRECTION FROM WHICH THE OUTFLOWS ARE ORIGINATING /MOUNTAINS NE OF
PHOENIX/. IF STORMS END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...MORE WIDESPREAD DUST AND DUST-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BL MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE DESERTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. POPS WERE ALSO RAISED IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. I WOULD GO HIGHER BUT AT LEAST AT THIS POINT THERE AREN`T
ANY OBVIOUS TRIGGERS/TROUGHS/PV ANOMALIES IN THE FLOW TO WARRANT
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20-30 POPS. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEXT
SUNDAY WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL BL MOISTURE /MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7-9
G/KG/ OVERSPREADS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DESERTS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EARLY-SEASON
EVENTS IS ALWAYS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO...AND SOUTHERLY
ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 09Z-
16Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS LIMITED TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREA. STORM ACTIVITY OVER SONORA MAY LEAD TO SOME REMNANT
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AOA FL180 AFTER 12Z...MORE LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE MORE CUMULUS BUILDUPS
AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TUESDAY WITH EVEN MORE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STORM CHANCES EXPAND TO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND EXPANDS TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM RELATED WINDS AND LIGHTNING BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 PERCENT WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR AZZ021>023-027-028.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ020-
024>026.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT WILL RETREAT FROM THE RECORD-TYING VALUES
SEEN LAST WEEK. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM MEXICO...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MONSOON HIGH ACROSS
NM...SPRAWLED OUT EAST TO WEST WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TWC 12Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PWAT OF 1.12
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THEY
WERE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SE AZ TODAY...BUT WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ.
ALTHOUGH EXCESSIVE HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERTS ON SUNDAY AND
DEWPOINTS NEVER MIXED OUT SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PWATS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON
SUNDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY MIX
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S LATER TODAY. THESE FACTORS...IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF THE
DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TODAY. IN MANY LOCATIONS...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LATE JUNE. HOWEVER LOOKING
AHEAD TO TUESDAY...925-850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH DESERT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING TO THE 110-114 RANGE.
GOING TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND WILL
DROP IT FOR TODAY...BUT LEAVE IT IN EFFECT ON TUESDAY. WILL EMPHASIZE
THAT TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RECORD-TYING TEMPS
OF LAST WEEK...BUT THAT DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST TURNS DECIDEDLY MORE MONSOON-LIKE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT US THE RECENT STRETCH OF HEAT SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA.
GFS/EURO BL MIXING RATIOS START TO CLIMB TO AROUND 6 G/KG AROUND THE
PHOENIX AREA...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 8 G/KG ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND NOT SURPRISINGLY...SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX AND DESCENDING INTO THE DESERTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPES
QUICKLY DROP OFF TO ZERO AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO SO ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THERE`S CERTAINLY
A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING NEW STORMS AND I
MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL NEED
ASSESS THE POSSIBILITY OF BLDU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE
FORECAST PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED...DUST MAY BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE
GIVEN THE DIRECTION FROM WHICH THE OUTFLOWS ARE ORIGINATING
/MOUNTAINS NE OF PHOENIX/. IF STORMS END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MORE WIDESPREAD DUST AND DUST-RELATED
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BL MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE DESERTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. POPS WERE ALSO RAISED IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. I WOULD GO HIGHER BUT AT LEAST AT THIS POINT THERE AREN`T
ANY OBVIOUS TRIGGERS/TROUGHS/PV ANOMALIES IN THE FLOW TO WARRANT
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20-30 POPS. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEXT
SUNDAY WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL BL MOISTURE /MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7-9
G/KG/ OVERSPREADS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DESERTS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EARLY-SEASON
EVENTS IS ALWAYS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AM SKIES SEEING SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
INTO THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KIPL AND
KBLH. PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WESTERLY HEADINGS
THIS AM BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HUMIDITIES...CLOUDS...AND THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN. BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVES...SHALLOW INCURSIONS OF HUMID AIR ARE ANTICIPATED
FROM TIME TO TIME. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SONORA MEXICO COULD
LEAD TO MORE RAPID ONSET OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND STORM CHANCES.
CONVERSELY...IF THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AT BAY AND THE SHALLOW
INCURSIONS OF MOISTURE DO NOT MATERIALIZE...THEN VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURES...HIGH HAINES VALUES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ020>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1232 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING
ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WHILE SOME AREAS MAY BOUNCE
BACK A FEW DEGREES...SUSPECT MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR HAVE
ALREADY HIT THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM
MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. MSAS 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE CHARTS SHOW AROUND 3-5 MB
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS EASTERN WY. HRRR AND NAM12 BRING THE FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST CO AROUND 12Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL MIX OUT SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT BY AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHES IN. ANY POPS TODAY SHOULD STAY CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RATON MESA REGION...THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE WETS AND PERHAPS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. WITH QUITE A BIT OF CIN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THEY PUSH
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE RATON MESA
REGION WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
FIRE/MAINTAIN ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEARS APPEAR FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WENT SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR THE PLAINS THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...BUT TIMING OF
FRONT WILL MEAN EVERYTHING. TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
CONSENSUS GRIDS...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS OVERLY WARM MET/MAV GUIDANCE
IS GOING. MEANWHILE...FORECAST PERSISTENCE LOOKS BEST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALWAYS LEERY OF A LOW LEVEL JET IN VCNTY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...AS IT COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...CAP IS QUITE STOUT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND NOT
SURE IF UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREACH IT. NAM12 IS PRETTY
DRY...GFS KEEPS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...THOUGH DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE SE MTS. ARW LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...AND NMM PRINTS OUT WHAT LOOKS
LIKE SOME STRATIFORM SHOWERS/LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SILENT POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS. DID INCREASE SKY COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE
MTS/PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER
THAN READINGS THIS MORNING. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS...WITH HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT INTO ARKANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE
WEEK WHILE NEXT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER
THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY WEEKEND IN COMBINATION WITH
A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALSO...UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
INCREASED POPS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS WEEK...MAXIMIZING FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEARS EXCEED 1500
J/KG...-5C AND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
AT KCOS AND KPUB...COLD FRONT HAS COME THROUGH WITH N-NE WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW THEN PRODUCING SOME STRATUS
AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MVFR AT KPUB TO IFR AT KCOS. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF A -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING...THOUGH WON`T MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
POINT.
AT KALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM
MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. MSAS 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE CHARTS SHOW AROUND 3-5 MB
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS EASTERN WY. HRRR AND NAM12 BRING THE FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST CO AROUND 12Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL MIX OUT SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT BY AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHES IN. ANY POPS TODAY SHOULD STAY CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RATON MESA REGION...THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE WETS AND PERHAPS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. WITH QUITE A BIT OF CIN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THEY PUSH
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE RATON MESA
REGION WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT TO
FIRE/MAINTAIN ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEARS APPEAR FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS REGION...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WENT SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR THE PLAINS THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...BUT TIMING OF
FRONT WILL MEAN EVERYTHING. TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
CONSENSUS GRIDS...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS OVERLY WARM MET/MAV GUIDANCE
IS GOING. MEANWHILE...FORECAST PERSISTENCE LOOKS BEST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALWAYS LEERY OF A LOW LEVEL JET IN VCNTY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...AS IT COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...CAP IS QUITE STOUT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND NOT
SURE IF UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREACH IT. NAM12 IS PRETTY
DRY...GFS KEEPS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...THOUGH DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE SE MTS. ARW LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...AND NMM PRINTS OUT WHAT LOOKS
LIKE SOME STRATIFORM SHOWERS/LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SILENT POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS. DID INCREASE SKY COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE
MTS/PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER
THAN READINGS THIS MORNING. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS...WITH HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT INTO ARKANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE
WEEK WHILE NEXT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER
THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY WEEKEND IN COMBINATION WITH
A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALSO...UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
INCREASED POPS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS WEEK...MAXIMIZING FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEARS EXCEED 1500
J/KG...-5C AND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
AT KCOS AND KPUB...COLD FRONT HAS COME THROUGH WITH N-NE WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW THEN PRODUCING SOME STRATUS
AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MVFR AT KPUB TO IFR AT KCOS. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF A -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING...THOUGH WON`T MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
POINT.
AT KALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...CONTINUED HOT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
...EXCELLENT BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC...
...PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONDS PRETTY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH A DEARTH OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS FAR. KMLB SHOWS MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHILE KTBW INDICATES A FEW DECENT CELLS ALONG/OUT AHEAD OF THE WCSB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER SPARSE DIURNAL CU FIELD...PERHAPS
EVEN BIT LESS THAN SUNDAY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
THE 17Z HRRR INDICATES THAT THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL
OCCUR OVER LAKE COUNTY...PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE IT INDICATES THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ECSB ACTIVITY...THE EVENING FCST
WHICH KEEPS PRECIP CONFINED TO WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER WILL
SUFFICE...AND WILL NOT NEED TO RUN WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD FOR THIS
CYCLE. DON`T EXPECT A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING`S EARLY FLAREUP AS THE
MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE ATLC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEAK VORT
OUT OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX. WENT WITH A TEMPERATURE SPREAD SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...MOSTLY M-U70S...WITH A FEW L70S AT THE USUAL SHELTERED
ASOS SITES WHICH LIE BENEATH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
TUE-WED...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THE GFS
SHOWS SOME SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT OF A RIBBON OF H50 VORTICITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA BY WED. NOT ENTIRELY SURE OF THE VERACTIY
OF THIS FEATURE CONSIDERING NEITHER THE ECM NOR THE NAM SHOW THIS.
CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH PERSISTENCE AS LIGHT SSE TO
SW SFC FLOW ABOUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ECSB WILL FORM
AND MOVE STEADILY INLAND...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER INLAND
PUSH INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST. MAX/MIN TEMPS REMAIN WHERE
THEY`VE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE L90S AT THE
COAST AND M90S INLAND....A FEW U90S IN NORMALLY HOTTER LOCALES. MINS
GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S...A FEW L70S NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
THU-MON (MODIFIED PREV)...A WELCOME TREND FOR INCREASING RAIN CHCS
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE FL EAST COAST) IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS THE ZONAL JET BRINGS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF ACRS
THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EN ROUTE FOR NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLC FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROF WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF
UPROOTING THE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ATLC RIDGE THRU WEEK`S END...IT WILL
BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS ITS AXIS BACK TO THE SOUTH.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
OVER THE CTRL-SRN CWA...BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO SOUTH FL THRU THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULTING H100-H70 FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S BY SUNSET
THU...THEN TO THE SW BY DAYBREAK SAT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL SHIFT
OF HIGHEST DIURNAL POPS FROM THE INTERIOR COUNTIES BACK TO THE E FL
COAST. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG WITH MAXES L/M90S...MINS
L/M70S.
SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS NORTH FL BY MON...
WHICH WILL LIKELY PORTEND EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ECSB MAY GET WEST OF THE MCO-SFB CORRIDOR WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE. LIKE SUNDAY..COLLISION TOWARD 00Z WILL GIVE BEST CHC FOR
SHRA/TS INVOF THE KLEE-KISM AERODROMES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
&&
.MARINE...TUE-SAT...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA THRU
MIDWEEK...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO SE BREEZE ABOUT THE
RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL BECOME SERLY EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE IN THE
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRC. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW BY THIS WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS INTO SOUTH FL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
TROUGH.
LOCAL WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AVERAGE ABOUT A FT TOO HIGH
OVER MOST OF THE MAOR. WHILE THE FCST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEAS
MAINLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE FROM TUE ONWARD...IT HAS BEEN SHOWING 2-
3FT SINCE SATURDAY...AND HAS HAD TO BE PARED BACK TO 1-2FT SEVERAL
CYCLES IN A ROW. CONSEQUENTLY...SEAS WILL LIKELY WIND UP BEING 2FT
OR LESS.
&&
.CLIMATE...DAYTONA BEACH INT`L APRT TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 96F
WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY SET IN 2009. ORLANDO INT`L MAY COME WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR RECORD...WHILE THE RECORD HIGHS ARE SAFE
ELSEWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY JUNE 22ND...
DAYTONA BEACH 96 IN 2009. (TIED TODAY)
ORLANDO INTL 98 IN 1987.
MELBOURNE 99 IN 2009.
VERO BEACH 102 IN 2009.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 93 76 92 / 20 20 10 20
MCO 78 95 75 95 / 20 30 30 30
MLB 76 91 76 91 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 75 91 74 92 / 10 20 10 20
LEE 78 96 78 94 / 40 30 40 30
SFB 78 95 76 94 / 20 30 20 30
ORL 78 95 77 94 / 20 30 30 30
FPR 74 91 73 92 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
RADAR/AVIATION/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
305 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER NW IA THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MCS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER NRN IL STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE STATE AND CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY. RAPP/RUC AND
HRRR STILL REDEVELOPING THE PRECIPITATION/TS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. SAME SHORT TERM MODELS BRINGING PRECIP LATER AFTER 00Z
IN THE EXTREME WEST AND SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF I-55
BEFORE 04Z. STILL LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST...AND NARROW EITHER WAY. NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERNIGHT
GRIDS OVERALL. SOME CONCERN WITH WIND THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY HAIL AS THE COLDER AIRMASS GETS CLOSER. SO
FAR, PRECIP HAS FIRED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO TIMING MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE SHOULD THE SHOWERS MAINTAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT FROM TONIGHTS MCS/SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND END UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN
IL. SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL NOT STAY SOUTH VERY LONG AND THEN
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE AREA AS A SERIES OF MCS`S MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY
DURING THE WEEK WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND A FRONT IN THE AREA.
LOCATION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THEN A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH ENOUGH
THAT DRIER WEATHER WILL BE FELT IN THE CWA FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY/AND WHOLE AREA SAT
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN IN THE NORTH FOR SUN AND SUN
NIGHT AND THEN THE WHOLE AREA FOR MONDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THUR WILL REMAIN WARM UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THEN COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SEEN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE RUC/RAPP AND THE HRRR ARE STILL SHUNTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP/CONVECTION OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE ILX TERMINALS. INSTEAD OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION, THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE ACTUAL
CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS CLOSER TO PIA, AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
TO REFLECT THAT, WITH A VCTS FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES. VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE TS TEMPO WITH AN MVFR VIS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WITH A MCS OVER SRN WI AND NORTHERN IL. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW...INSTEAD FIRING PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE POPS REMAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN TIER.
WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER PUSHED
TO THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER
90S AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
MID-MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 THROUGH 15Z. FURTHER NORTHWEST...A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE GENERALLY TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL
LIKELY STAY WELL NORTH OF THE KILX CWA. WILL HOWEVER NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THEIR EVOLUTION...AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER THIS MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS COMPLEX...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALL
MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA LATE...HOWEVER SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. 12KM
NAM/4KM NAM/RAPID REFRESH ALL KEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA UNTIL EVENING...WHILE THE 4KM WRF AND SREF ARE SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND POTENTIALLY BRING IT INTO THE FAR NW CWA AROUND
GALESBURG BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AFTER 21Z ACCORDINGLY...WITH
BETTER STORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIM STORM CHANCES TODAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
WINDY AND HOT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...REACHING A BLOOMINGTON TO JACKSONVILLE LINE BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE CAPPED ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ONCE CAP IS BROKEN...GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-72 DURING THE EVENING ACCORDINGLY. STORMS WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK FURTHER E/SE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
DECREASED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRONT WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO MARSHALL LINE...WITH DRY WEATHER
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH. FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE SPREAD POPS BACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG/WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST LOW CHANCE ALONG THE
INDIANA BORDER.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING IN THE VICINITY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS
DEVELOP A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. 12Z ECMWF HAD FEATURED A PROMINENT SURFACE LOW
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ALIVE
INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE 00Z RUN HAS DROPPED THAT SOLUTION IN
FAVOR OF THE DRY GFS/GEM CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT...AM GOING WITH A
DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE RUC/RAPP AND THE HRRR ARE STILL SHUNTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP/CONVECTION OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE ILX TERMINALS. INSTEAD OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION, THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE ACTUAL
CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS CLOSER TO PIA, AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
TO REFLECT THAT, WITH A VCTS FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES. VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE TS TEMPO WITH AN MVFR VIS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
112 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY
FORMING OVER EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
THIS MORNING MOST AREAS AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM
BUFKIT. NCEP HIGH RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HAD INITIALIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION VERY GOOD AND APPEARED TO BB HANDLING STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION WELL. MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF STORMS TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES. COORDINATED SEVERE CHANCES WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN REGARD TO THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
CONCERN WITH ONGOING FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PRIMARY
FORECAST FOCUS ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY IS STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY AS
DRY...COOL LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES APPEAR POISED TO CAUSE IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD
ADVANCE OF LOW LEVEL THETAE BOUNDARY FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE POPS RETURNING ACROSS
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MID MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP RAMP OF S-SW LLJ.
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100
KNOT GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY TAKE THE SHAPE OF ANOTHER MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. PROLONGED
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASING TO 12-13K FT SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL IN ORDER.
SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR DEPENDING ON EXACT ORIENTATION OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE AXIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST
PERHAPS SOUTHERN HALF WITH BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR
SEVERE THREAT. BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY SHIFT SOUTH OF
LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE FACTORS REGARDING UPSTREAM
EVOLUTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE BY FRIDAY AS FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AGAIN. COOLER TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID OPT TO KEEP BROAD BRUSH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
LINE OF TS MOVG ACROSS NRN IL WAS WKNG EARLY THIS AFTN AS STORMS
MOVE AWAY FROM STRONGER FORCING... SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF TS OUT
OF TAFS FOR THIS AFTN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
LINE OF TS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CDFNT LATE THIS AFTN AND
DROP SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS TAFS TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THIS ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES MADE. FROPA
EXPECTED AROUND 09Z AT SBN AND 12Z AT FWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW FAVORED
SOMEWHAT DRIER GFS WITH JUST SCT LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS TIME. IN
EITHER CASE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR AND CIG FREE BY LATE
MORNING WITH MODEST NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
356 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAD DEVELOPED
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER
BOW ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPES OF 6000 J/KG IN NW MO WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IA (BEWARE OF THE GRADIENT). EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WAS 70 KNOTS...HELICITY 300 M2/S2 WITH 1 KM EHI OF 5. STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS EVIDENT ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF NEARLY
2 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN BRIEFLY QUIET
ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DETAILS WERE NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION
ABOVE BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END BY 10 OR 11 PM. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 60 ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE DVN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY OUR FAR SOUTH STILL HAVING A
CHANCE OF STORMS. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL UPSCALE INTO A BOW ECHO AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AND A
FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN NORTHWEST
TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
124 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAS
DEVELOPED AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE CEDAR
RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE. ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN OUR NW CWA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER BOW
ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
FEW UPDATES TO FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS NORTHERN
CWA MAY GET A GLANCING PASS BY THE SEVERE MCS TO OUR NORTH. THINK
THAT THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING. AN ISOLATED 50 MPH GUST AND
EVEN A SEVERE GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WAA AS ADVANCED THROUGH
THE CWA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
WARM ADVECTION WING IN FULL MOTION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A RATHER STICKY NIGHT FOR US AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THIS WING OF WAA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS FAR NW ZONES THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SURGING NORTH. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT THE NOTION
OF THIS AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MCS TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. CONCERNS
REMAIN ABOUT CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND OVERALL COVERAGE ONCE
STORMS INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OR
JUST CLIP FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA TODAY. THIS MEANS THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME OFBS. THESE
OFBS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS POTENTIAL
INITIATION POINTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA.
THESE SPECIFICS WILL BECOME CLEARER AFTER THE MORNINGS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONG H7 CAPPING IS IN PLACE FROM THE SW TO THE NE. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL BREAK THIS CAP AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS US...EXPECT
VERY LARGE CAPE...AOA 4000 J/KG...BELIEVE THAT THE NAM IS
OVERDOING THE VALUES. REGARDLESS ONCE THIS CAP BREAKS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAST. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO WI WHERE PROXIMITY TO OFBS AND THE
WARM FRONT COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY GROW INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.
MY CURRENT THINKING IS THIS...WE WILL WATCH A CU FIELD PERCOLATE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AROUND 00Z
AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR AROUND THE COLD
FRONT. I THINK THAT THE CELLS WILL BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND MAY
PERSIST THAT WAY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VECTOR NOWHERE NEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE ONCE COVERAGE INCREASES.
PWATS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...I
THINK ANY FLOODING WOULD BE TIED DIRECTLY TO TRAINING STORMS. I
DONT SEE THIS AS MUCH OF A THREAT AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GROWING
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS JUST OUT OR JUST NEAR OUR BORDERS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
TODAY IS A DAY TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND HAVE A PLAN
IN CASE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE
TO BELOW AVERAGE. MAIN ISSUE IS AGAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AMERICAN SOLUTIONS TOO FAR
NORTH WITH WARM AIR AND PRECIPITATION. FAST W-NW UPPER FLOW AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPAWN LOTS OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP
AREA CLOUDY AND COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH
LIKE THE HI-RES ECMWF. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN TECHNIQUES AND UPPER FORCING
ALSO SHOW BEST PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE ALL OR OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ONCE AGAIN ARE TOO HIGH
ON BL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS) AND RESULTING IN TOO COPIOUS QPF FIELDS
TO ACTUAL. FAVORED PATTERN ALSO FOR COOL POOLS...OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE NON-HYDROSTATIC AND NOT ABLE TO BE CAPTURED BY
SOLUTIONS. PREFER A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS THROUGH DAY 3
AND THEN WITH NW FLOW A 50/50 BLEND WITH MOSTLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND COOLER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TOO AND ALSO DEWPOINTS 2 TO 3 DEGREES AS DISCUSSED LAST
NIGHT COULD BE THE CASE AND THIS IS ON TRACK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...ESPECIALLY FOR DEWPOINTS NORTHERN
SECTIONS MAKING FOR ANOTHER NICE AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR NE/KS BORDER THAT
WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO FAR SW SECTIONS BY MORNING. LOTS OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST TO ALL THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. RATE OF
CLOUDINESS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MINS.
IF CLOUDS DELAYED THEN NE 1/3 OR MORE OF AREA MINS MAY NEED TRIMMING
BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY OR 3 DEGREES...INTO THE UPPER 50S. FAR SW
SECTIONS COULD SEE .5 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS BY MORNING WITH COMPLEX WITH
A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE SINCE FRONT SHOULD BE TOO OUR
SOUTH...LIMITING INSTABILITY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL SLATED BE ROUGHLY
ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR
WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH
LOCALLY 2 TO 3+ POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
NIGHT EVENT LIKELY WOULD RESULT IN RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK
CONTINUES TO APPEAR WILL BE PROBABLY SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT AND BASED ON THIS
PATTERN LIKELY NEED LOWERING ANOTHER 5 TO 8+ DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 DUE TO GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOTS OF MID TO UPPER
70S FOR HIGHS APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE...IF NOT PROBABLE FOR LATER
SHIFTS.
FOR THE 24+ HOUR PERIOD...SEE LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY FOR
SOME AREAS...THIS SHOULD PUSH SOME AREA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN NEAR TO
OVER BANKFULL WITH SOME RENEWED FLOODING. LOWER END FLASH FLOODING
ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IF FALLS FAST ENOUGH...AS
IN A FEW HOURS OR LESS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASINGLY STRONGER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST DAYS AND MINS MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL UPSCALE INTO A BOW ECHO AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AND A
FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN NORTHWEST
TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND HOW HOT DOES IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE/NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
NOW IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS...CANADIAN...
AND THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET WELL NORTH. POSSIBLY A WEAK REAR QUADRANT
THAT MOVES ACROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SURFACE TROUGH
RESIDES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PROBLEM IN THE
BEGINNING COULD BE IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG PLUS THE MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW STRONG THE MID LIFT WILL BE. MODEL QPF IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE GETTING MORE THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY SHOWN. CHOSE TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY AND ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING
UP. A WEAKER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEM IS IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THEY ARE IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH.
THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE GFS MUCH SLOWER AND ONLY ABOUT
HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NAM. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR PLUS 15. SO WHERE WILL THE SURFACE FOCUS BE
AND IF THE CAP WILL BREAK. ALSO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LIFT IS IN
QUESTION. AGAIN DUE TO A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF FEATURES...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. SO ONCE AGAIN CHOSE ONLY TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD FEEL A HIGHER CHANCE IS
DESERVED.
DUE TO THE BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM THEY MAKE IT. CHOSE TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND CLOSER TO THE OUTPUT THAT HAS BEEN DOING BETTER RECENTLY.
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL POSITION CONTINUE. MAJORITY OF THE
OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT BEING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO FELT BETTER ABOUT GOING COOLER. PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
HOURS SUPPORT HAVING THE AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS START THE AMPLIFICATION
PROCESS TO A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. FLOW
BECOMES SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION
OF WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
INITIALLY HAVE THE FRONT STAY OR START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL COLD INTRUSIONS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS GAVE ME DUE TO
THE INITIAL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST ACTIVE
AND WET PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT IT BECOMES DRIER AS THE RIDGE EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT WARM UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 2500-3500 KFT CIGS AT KGLD BETWEEN 10-15Z...HOWEVER
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW NEBRASKA. INITIATION AND COVERAGE ARE BOTH
QUESTIONS...AND CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH MINOR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...VERY HIGH CINH/CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
CWA...WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW
KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN OR
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANY INITIATION
LIMITED TO SW KANSAS OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD COMBINE
WITH WEAK H85-H7 WAA ACROSS NE COLORADO TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
SIGNAL IN THIS AREA SPREADING EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS/HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE. IF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD EFFECTIVE SHEER COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I AM JUST NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING
TO SEE ANYTHING DEVELOP...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20. GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING WIT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
FRONT...POSSIBLY POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF FOG
WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING VISIBILITIES HIGH...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
TUESDAY...HI RES MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH MEAN
FLOW...AND I KEPT THIS TIMING IN PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE WITHIN MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OVER THE CWA...SO WE COULD SEE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN THE DAYTIME CAP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN FRONT POSITION/TIMING...SO HIGH TEMPS AND THIS POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS ON DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SW...THOUGH THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
EARLY BASED ON MODEL TIMING OF BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT
FALLS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER CWA...THERE COULD BE BETTER SHEER
PROFILES WITH VEERING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. RESULT COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
QUASI ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS UNTIL FRIDAY WHERE THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH BUILDING IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS. TRANSIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND UPPER
LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF A STRONG JET STREAM IN THE PROFILE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE...SO ANY
LIFT FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT SURFACE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS A RESULT WITH
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH LACK OF
SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISMS...CONFIDENCE FOR OCCURRING PRECIPITATION IS SHAKY AT THIS
POINT. FORECAST CONSENSUS INDICATED AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT POPS AS IS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 2500-3500 KFT CIGS AT KGLD BETWEEN 10-15Z...HOWEVER
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW NEBRASKA. INITIATION AND COVERAGE ARE BOTH
QUESTIONS...AND CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
US EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A BROAD
BAND OF STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.
AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS H5 TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STATES, A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SD WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTHERN KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE AND 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SD, SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KS. THE SURFACE/850MB
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN NE INTO CENTRAL KS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS TO
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BE AROUND 850MB ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
OF THE CWA WITH THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REACHING AROUND 800MB
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF 24 TO 27
DEGREES, MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME 100
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. GIVEN
DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MOST AREA WILL SEE HEAT
INDICES REACH THE 104 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
I WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TO THE
LOCATION OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARW, ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING ACROSS
THE CWA WITH THE TAIL END LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MO. THE NAM, RAP AND NMM SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST KS,
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH 5,000 TO 6,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30 TO 40 KT OF SFC
TO 6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT ROTATING UPDRAFT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
NEAR SUNSET AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF I-70 AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE VEERED 850MB WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS, WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN H5 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE NE BORDER
WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SOME 700-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
LOCATIONS TUESDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MODEST THOUGH SOMEWHAT
DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON 315 AND 310K SURFACES. ELEVATED CAPE OF
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT PROGGED BY NAM
AND GFS COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF SEVERE STORMS. HAVE DROPPED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN INCREASING AGREEMENT IN SOME PRECIP AND
CLOUD, THOUGH GRADIENT COULD EASILY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN FORECAST.
CONVERGENCE SHIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
DIMINISHING CHANCES. DEEP SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR
BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AIR TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 90S, THOUGH
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM EARLIER PERIODS
SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT LOWER AND APPARENT TEMPS AROUND 100.
NEXT FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. COOLING
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT, WITH WIND FIELDS NOT SUPPORTING MUCH IN WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS. FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
WITH DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A CONCENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS WILL BRING THE FRONT
SOUTH TO A KGDB-KUKL LINE. BY 15Z TUESDAY, THE TOUGH WILL BE
RETURNING NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. THEREFORE, WE THINK ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED. DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS AS A
RESULT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
KRC
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ010>012-020>024-026-034>036-038>040-054>056.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...KRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Afternoon...
Thunderstorms to our north in Michigan our sending plenty of
subsiding cirrus our way this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
indicates our cumulus field is being held at bay because of this
flow aloft, and latest radar over western KY shows earlier cells are
decaying as well. Cannot rule out an isolated shower surviving in
our southwest.
Latest HRRR indicates a line of storms would fire in southeast
Iowa/northern Illinois and head southeast through the evening,
perhaps getting to our area as just a line of gusty winds or even an
very isolated shower by daybreak Tuesday. Would expect wherever this
boundary sets up to be the focus for further convection by late
morning or early afternoon Tuesday. NAM soundings are very unstable
for the afternoon, and surface temp/dewpoints are in line with what
we expect tomorrow. Soundings show a layer of dry air in the 600-700
mb range, allowing the chance for both larger hail and stronger
downburst winds. Bust potential for this forecast would be just how
many clouds remain from the line that comes through overnight and
how this affects surface temperatures. Clouds over LEX this hour are
keeping temperatures ~5 degrees cooler than areas in the clear! Will
highlight potential for severe wind gusts and hail in the stronger
storms with our hazardous weather outlook.
Again, highs Tuesday will depend greatly on extent of clouds in the
morning. Based on current forecast, expect highs around 90. This
should push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for most
locations. The best chance to get up to around 100 would be south of
the I-64 corridor and west of a Bardstown to Glasgow line.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an expansive ridge across the southern CONUS, placing the
Ohio Valley on the periphery of the swift northwest flow found
across much of the northern CONUS. This regime will amplify through
the end of the long term period as the southern ridge breaks down
and a trough builds into the Ohio Valley, bringing some relief from
the precip chances and the hot and humid weather we`ve experienced
as of late.
Generally low-resolution synoptic models are notorious for
struggling with convection and MCS development, so confidence in the
long term period on timing and convective coverage is generally low,
especially Wednesday. That being said, have attempted to best time
the convection using a general model blend and ensemble data. This
method brings just chance pops to the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as there does not appear to be any substantial
triggering PV anomaly to spark convection.
By Thursday, the southern ridge will begin to break down as a strong
trough dives into the northern CONUS. Timing as of now keeps much
of the convection just north of the region through much of the
daylight hours on Thursday. Good southwesterly flow ahead of an
area of low pressure coupled with some expected sunshine and 850mb
temps rising to around 20C means Thursday could end up being quite
warm, assuming clouds/precip remain to the north. Have gone with
highs in the low to mid 90s, which coupled with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, will push heat index values on either side of 100
degrees.
The trough and associated surface front will slowly push through the
region Thursday night into Friday night. Mid-level flow will be
sufficient to support some strong/severe storms, but the potential
for storms Thursday night may hinder destabilization on Friday given
the expected cloud cover. If we are able to see some sun break out
on Friday, then a few strong/severe storms will be possible. Again,
predictability in the mesoscale details at this timeframe are rather
low, but the strength of the system pushing through does support the
potential for some strong/severe storm development, especially
across southern KY on Friday. Given the slow movement of the front
through the area, we could also have some local flooding issues as
well, so that will be something to continue to monitor.
The passing cold front and building trough aloft will make for
rather pleasant conditions moving in by the weekend. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s for highs on Saturday and
Sunday. Conditions should be generally dry Saturday night through
Sunday, as the deeper moisture finally gets shunted to the east with
the passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Have the remains of earlier storms over southern Indiana maintaining
mid-level cloudiness over KLEX this hour. Also have cirrus
streaming in from the north, which looks to be squashing convection
across the area, according to latest visible satellite imagery. Have
put in VCSH for KBWG, but not confident the showers to the west will
survive. Low pressure to our west will keep our winds generally from
the southwest this period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
217 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. IT APPEARS THAT THE HRRR HAS
FINALLY GOTTEN THE TRENDS RIGHT WITH SOME OF THE MORE RECENT
RUNS. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WE CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL HIT/MISS
TYPE POP UP THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT. CU FILED HAS DEVELOPED AND A
MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUD COVER DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN
JUST A BIT ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER PORTIONS OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER
VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS. ALSO
FRESHENED UP ZONE WORDING AND REMOVED FOG. LITTLE IF ANYTHING
LEFT IN OUR AREA TO INDICATE STORM COMPLEXES ROLLED THROUGH CNTRL
KY LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME
REGENERATION OF STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WHAT
MAY BE A WEAK SFC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY.
BUT OTHER MODELS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS POSSIBILITY. ELONGATED RIDGE
FROM THE WEST DOES BEGIN AN ATTEMPT AT NOSING ITS WAY BACK INTO
OUR AREA TODAY WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE DISCONTINUITY IN NEAR TERM
SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN FIRE. FOR
NOW WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC ISOLD POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS WEAKENING FAST AND PROBABLY WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE THAT TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA HAS DEVELOPED ON A
NARROW BELT OF MORE MOIST 850 MB AIR OVERLAPPING MUCAPE VALUES OF
OVER 1000 J/KG. THE RAP INDICATES THIS BELT OF RICHER/MORE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER IN SOME FORM OR
FASHION AND MAKING IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY AFTER DAWN. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY
WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY.
OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CAP BREAKS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH SBCAPE OVER 4000
J/KG...SO ANY STORM WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY. WITH
DEW POINTS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 70 T0 75 DEGREE
RANGE...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY
AND TO AROUND 100 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THANKS TO PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
PATTERN WILL THEN AMPLIFY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. DETAILS ON HOW THE AMPLIFICATION EVOLVES WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...SO
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST...WITH LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE AT SOME POINT.
TROUGHING WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. CAN ALSO EXPECT THE TYPICAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST...SOUTHWEST
BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Sent another set of zones out to remove the morning shower wording.
Updated at 850 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Complex from earlier is fading fast, and have pulled thunder wording
from the rest of the morning. Still do not see any upper level
feature to enhance precip chances today, and latest HRRR is
seemingly the only model handling current feature well. It`s
forecast remains dry the rest of the day as well, so have kept in a
dry afternoon forecast. Once these clouds dissipate, we should warm
to around 90 degrees this afternoon, with heat indices topping out
in the mid to upper 90s. Perhaps a spot or two will touch 100.
Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
The current complex of showers/storms over southern IN/central KY is
weakening and will continue to do so as it moves east into east
central KY. The current forecast handles this well.
Some of the latest high-res models indicates another upper level
shortwave could cause another complex of storms this afternoon.
Will stick with the majority of models giving a dry forecast for now
but it is something to watch as this pattern contains many subtle
waves.
Also will issue an SPS for heat indices maxing out just over 100
degrees each afternoon through Thurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Updated at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
...Strong Storms Possible Early this Morning...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid level shortwave which was producing
showers/storms over southern IL/southwest IN early this morning.
This wave looks to continue to push ESE through the Ohio Valley
through the morning hours. Mesoanalysis shows minimal CAPE values
over our region except for an area south of an Evansville to E-town
to Lake Cumberland line where elevated mixed layer CAPE values were
running around 500-1500 J/KG. An effective bulk shear axis of 35-40
kts was pointed southeast from Evansville along that same area.
While the upper level shortwave may support the current complex of
storms as it moves ESE along the I-64 corridor, we would expect
perhaps some weakening due to a less favorable environment. The
latest radar trends indicate some southward develop from the ongoing
complex which may become a trend as we go through the morning hours
with the better environment SSE of the current complex. As we saw
yesterday evening, mesoscale boundaries will have the ability to
increase storm strength as they collide with ongoing convection.
Overall feel that storms this morning will remain sub-severe with
wind gusts up to 50 mph and perhaps some small hail. However, can`t
rule out an isld severe storm...a 60 mph gust was measured around 2
am EDT/1 am CDT in Robinson, IL. Also, storms will continue to
produce a lot of lightning and very heavy downpours. If current
timing holds, this complex of storms should be clear of the area by
early afternoon.
For the rest of the afternoon and tonight, upper level ridging
should build into the region enough to result in dry conditions.
High temps should reach the lower 90s as skies become only partly
cloudy this afternoon. Heat indices will max out in the 98-102
range this afternoon. Tonight we won`t see much of a cool down with
the hot, humid airmass staying in place. Expect lows in the low to
mid 70s.
Tuesday a sfc front and upper level shortwave trough will drop south
into the Ohio Valley. With such a warm/moist/unstable airmass ahead
of it, strong to severe storms will be on the table. The main
threats will be damaging winds and large hail in addition to
torrential downpours. Storms should enter southern Indiana by late
morning limiting high temps to the upper 80s. However, low to mid
90s look likely for most of central KY. Heat indices will again top
out in the upper 90s to low 100s Tue afternoon.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Upper level ridging will be entrenched across the southern CONUS at
the beginning of the long term period. A cold front moving south
across the area Tuesday will stall out as it runs into this ridging.
Storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday evening. These storms should
gradually weaken into the late evening to overnight hours as daytime
heating wanes. Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper
80s to lower 90s with storms firing up along the washed out boundary
across central Kentucky. Thursday will be more of the same as
temperatures rise into the lower 90s. Heat index values each
afternoon Wednesday and Thursday will peak in the mid 90s to lower
100s. With these heat indices caution should be exercised during the
afternoon hours for those who are outside.
Friday into Friday night should actually see a transition into a bit
cooler pattern. A low pressure system will track northeast across
the lower Ohio Valley Friday night and drag a cold front through on
Saturday. Ahead of the cold front at least a portion of the region
will be in the warm sector on Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Storms will develop Friday and continue overnight as the low moves
through. Though it is fairly far out in the forecast period, it is
possible some of the storms could become strong. In addition, with
precipitable water values around 2 inches, rainfall with the storms
will be moderate to heavy at times. Rain should finally come to an
end by Saturday afternoon/evening, with scattered storms developing
again on Sunday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday in the wake of the
cold front will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015
Have the remains of earlier storms over southern Indiana maintaining
mid-level cloudiness over KLEX this hour. Also have cirrus
streaming in from the north, which looks to be squashing convection
across the area, according to latest visible satellite imagery. Have
put in VCSH for KBWG, but not confident the showers to the west will
survive. Low pressure to our west will keep our winds generally from
the southwest this period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
552 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/MARINE
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY CATCHING A BREAK...THE LARGE SCALE
ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING
AND THE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLE
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 01Z TO 05Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
PROGRESS OF THE STORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
CLEARING AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES
AND HELICITY VALUES CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY RECOVERS FROM THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOWS
THE STORMS ARRIVING BY 9 PM AND ENDING AROUND 1 AM. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS...WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FROM THE
MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.
DRYING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT WITH COLD FROPA AND FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN AND RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...SO RAIN IS COMING BACK FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAIN EVENT IN THE EXTENDED IS A BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS AN MCS...TO AFFECT AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOLER AND CLOUDY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. BRIEF LIFR AND WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE THREATS OF HAIL AND A TORNADO THIS
EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...EVEN OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GO NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE NEARSHORE ZONES. STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS MIXING DOWN THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ABOUT 8 PM TO 10 PM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN 30-45 MINUTES. BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OVERWHELM STORM DRAINS AND CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
4 PM OR SO...WITH A LULL EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 8 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL.
BEYOND LATE THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW.
WE COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. THE
RESIDUAL MCV GENERATED FROM THE LARGE MCS EARLIER TODAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR NW LOWER MI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SHRA OVER NRN
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WERE MOVING IN.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHEST SB/MU CAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM NW WI THROUGH UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KT/25-35KT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. EVEN WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CAPE RECOVERY...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL AND
EAST BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES WITH THE PRES RISE
MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NW
WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY. THAT WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHIFTING BACK TO THIS WEEK...THE FIRST WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT
IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THE BEST FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. DID BRUSH THE
KEWEENAW WITH THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A DECENT NUMBER OF
MODELS SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE REST
OF THE AREA TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE TROUGH BEING
OVER THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/FORCING AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREAS AND INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE
FROM CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY WESTWARD TOWARDS ONTONAGON COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER VALUES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG (BEST INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND TIED TO THE STRONG STORMS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAIRLY STRONG (APPROACHING 50KTS)...BUT
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...THAT IS ALL TIED TO THE STRONG JET
BETWEEN 5-6KM. THUS...THINK THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20KTS
ARE MORE REASONABLE AND BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
WHILE THAT FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAILING IT THAT
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER (ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC). THOSE WAVES WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
JULY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015MID/HIGH A LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION OF TS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT CMX BEHIND THE FRONT...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT ALL SITES. WITH DRY ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM WIL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MCS WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF SD EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MUCAPE...STRONG 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVER UPPER MI THE
WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER AND GENERALLY PCPN FREE UNDER SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND OVER LAKE MI AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FM THE
NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...LATEST 03Z SREF ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH MAJORITY OF 00Z AND
06Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE MCS OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE INTO SRN MN AND THE SRN HALF OF WI THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE GRADIENT OF HIGHEST MLCAPE/MUCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW PREV FCST SHIFT WITH SLOWER PCPN
ARRIVAL BACKING OFF PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE NOSE OF
THE IMPINGING 30-40 KT LOW-LVL JET. INCREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF MCS TO THE SW WILL TEND TO LIMIT
EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM REACHING FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST
TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-
1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 55-70KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD COULD
LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY. THAT WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHIFTING BACK TO THIS WEEK...THE FIRST WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT
IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THE BEST FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. DID BRUSH THE
KEWEENAW WITH THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A DECENT NUMBER OF
MODELS SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE REST
OF THE AREA TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE TROUGH BEING
OVER THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/FORCING AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREAS AND INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE
FROM CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY WESTWARD TOWARDS ONTONAGON COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER VALUES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG (BEST INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND TIED TO THE STRONG STORMS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAIRLY STRONG (APPROACHING 50KTS)...BUT
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...THAT IS ALL TIED TO THE STRONG JET
BETWEEN 5-6KM. THUS...THINK THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20KTS
ARE MORE REASONABLE AND BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
WHILE THAT FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAILING IT THAT
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER (ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC). THOSE WAVES WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
JULY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015MID/HIGH A LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION OF TS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT CMX BEHIND THE FRONT...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT ALL SITES. WITH DRY ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL OVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW
35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA
WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NE MT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MCS WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF SD EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MUCAPE...STRONG 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVER UPPER MI THE
WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER AND GENERALLY PCPN FREE UNDER SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND OVER LAKE MI AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FM THE
NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...LATEST 03Z SREF ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH MAJORITY OF 00Z AND
06Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE MCS OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE INTO SRN MN AND THE SRN HALF OF WI THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE GRADIENT OF HIGHEST MLCAPE/MUCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW PREV FCST SHIFT WITH SLOWER PCPN
ARRIVAL BACKING OFF PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE NOSE OF
THE IMPINGING 30-40 KT LOW-LVL JET. INCREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF MCS TO THE SW WILL TEND TO LIMIT
EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM REACHING FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST
TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-
1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 55-70KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD COULD
LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH
TROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE EVENING INTO
TUE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE NW FLOW. MODELS SHOW
THOSE DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY AND ALREADY
LIMITED MOISTURE STAYS OVER THE NRN CWA. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AROUND PEAK HEATING WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER LAND AREAS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NOT REAL SURE ON THE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS MODEL
VARY ON THE TIMING OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FASTER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT MOSTLY DRY THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...SO WILL JUST RUN WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015MID/HIGH A LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION OF TS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT CMX BEHIND THE FRONT...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT ALL SITES. WITH DRY ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL OVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW
35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA
WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT FOG
ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
148 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
NO HUGE CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON AFTERNOON
POPS NORTH OF M-32...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A GAP BETWEEN
CONVECTION. STRONGER TO SVR CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
DOWNSTATE...WITH THE 1K J/KG MLCAPE PLUME STILL SOUTH OF US-10.
GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SVR T-STORM
WATCH...AS THEY MAY BE GRAZED BY STRONGER CELLS TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WAKE LOW WINDS POKING INTO THE DECAYING MCS.
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER SOUTHERN WI...WHERE SOME
40-45KT NON-TSTORM GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT
LOOKS TO ADVANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH BETTER WINDS
FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
LATE-DAY POSSIBILITIES FOR SVR STORMS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. AS IS ALL
TOO TYPICAL...CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE GOING TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
RELOAD BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. CLOUD COVER IS THINNING IN
WESTERN WI...SO OUR WINDOW ISN/T COMPLETELY CLOSED...BUT IT
CERTAINLY IS NOT CRANKED WIDE OPEN EITHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
UPSTREAM MCS IS CROSSING WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN/ADJOINING AREAS.
NORTHERN MI IS PRESENTLY QUITE COOL/DRY/STABLE. INSTABILITY/
MOISTURE WILL BUBBLE UP IN THE SOUTH HALF OF LOWER MI BEFORE THE
MCS ARRIVES (SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NEARING 70F IN FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER). BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
BUILD HERE BEFORE THE MCS ARRIVES (DOESN/T HELP THAT WE ARE ABOUT
TO START CLOUDING OVER). SHEAR IS ALSO ONLY JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE AT MIDDAY.
SO SHOWERS/A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE LIKELY MIDDAY INTO MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING MCS. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. A STRAY SVR STORM ISN/T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT SVR WX WITH THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT IS UNLIKELY.
OUR SVR THREAT LOOKS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MCS...UP UNTIL WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. OF
COURSE...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SUBSTANTIAL AND RAPID
DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WINDOW FOR SUCH IS SHORT. BUT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD
ROCKET NORTHWARD AS SW 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT BY EARLY
EVENING. IN PARTICULAR...ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THAT WARM FRONT
(AS THE SPC HRRR WANTS TO DO) COULD POSE THE ENTIRE GAMUT OF SVR
WX THREATS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER USUAL...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRETTY QUIET OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
LAKE HURON...AND STRETCHING NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SYNOPTICALLY...A DEVELOPING AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN SD...THROUGH IOWA AND
DOWN ACROSS IL/IN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SD. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION IS STRONG INTO SD WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE IMPRESSIVE.
STEEP 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM LAPSE RATES...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS CROSSING
MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MCV...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION WAS ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...MORE SPOTTY STORMS IN IOWA...ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NEARING NRN MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
SHOWERS IN MN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
THE MORNING...DRIVEN BY THE ADVANCING MCV...DESPITE A FAIRLY DRY
00Z APX SOUNDING AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. MEANWHILE...THE STORMS
FROM SD WILL ADVANCE/DEVELOP FURTHER...INTO SRN MN/IOWA AS THE LLJ
VEERS MORE WEST...AND WHERE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHIFTS.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES...A
MOST COMMON PLACE WHERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER AND CROSSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...DEEPENING THE SFC LOW PRESSURE...LIFTING IN INTO
ONTARIO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WORK IN OVERHEAD...90-100KT
UPPER JET AND DIVERGENCE...AND 35-45KT LLJ POINTING INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS IDEA IS FOR STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA OVER US
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT UP INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHILE THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THIS EVENING AND EXITING
OVERNIGHT. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE INCREDIBLE AT 60+ KTS WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITIES TO 300+ M2/S2 WITH
THE WARM FRONT. REALLY STILL TOO EARLY TO SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER
SITUATION...AND THE WARM FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...AND THUS...HOW BELIEVABLE THAT THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT UP
HERE. THIS ALSO PLAYS INTO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE.
THE SHORTWAVE COULD CONCEIVABLY FORCE FEED THE WARM FRONT UP
HERE...BUT WE WILL REALLY BE NEEDING THE MORNING WARM FRONTAL
STORMS/CLOUDS/PRECIP TO NOT STALL THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
RIGHT NOW...THIS IS NOT THE CASE WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION
OVER IOWA...AND THE BULK OF THE STORMS WELL WEST OF HERE. SO...AM
STILL GOING TO LEAN TO THE IDEA OF SURFACE BASED HEATING AND A
JUMP OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS GENERATES 1000-2000
J/KG...ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LARGE HAIL...AND
THE HIGH HELICITIES WITH THE WARM FRONT ALSO PROMOTES POTENTIAL
TORNADOS. THIS SET UP LOOKS BETTER THAN MOST TIMES AROUND NRN
MICHIGAN. IF IT IS TO OCCUR...THOSE CLOUDS CANNOT PUT A LID ON SFC
HEATING...AND AGAIN...DONT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN (FOR NOW).
NRN MICHIGAN FOLKS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIALLY VOLATILE
SEVERE WEATHER SET UP...AND REMAIN ALERT TO THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS NRN MICHIGAN IN A SLIGHT
RISK EVERYWHERE...WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AND COLDER/DRIER AIR
SWEEPS IN...ENDING THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. INCREASING RIDGING
(AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT) ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEEPEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE
TIMING OF POSSIBLE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE STRATUS
TO START OFF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY LESS MUGGY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE (PW/S RISING TO NEAR 1.25
INCHES BY 12Z THU). MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS ON THE MEAGER SIDE). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE
MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. NORTHERN MICHIGAN THEN ENDS
UP BETWEEN JET STREAMS AFTER THAT (WITH ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH) SO ONLY SLIGHT OR LOWER END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE THEN HINTING AT
POSSIBLE DEEPER TROUGHING NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT BUILDS OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER
JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA LIKELY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MI LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA ENTERING LOWER MI...WITH STRONGER TSRA LARGELY
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THREAT FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH THIS IS NOT CERTAIN GIVEN POTENTIAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH EVENING
TSRA...AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WE WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS VEERING W
AND NW OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...GUSTY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD...AND THEN ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SE AND INCREASE TO SOLID ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MOST NEARSHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MORE CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT (THIS AFTERNOON) AND A FOLLOWING COLD FRONT (THIS
EVENING). AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE LAKES.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
619 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVLE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM MONDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY 925-850 MB DEWPOINTS ~14C (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND AS ONE MIGHT INFER GIVEN WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NO SIGNIFICANT CAP) AND A LACK OF DIURNAL CU. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GREATER
THAN IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN CENTRAL NC THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AN MCV WAS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST KY AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ESE
INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY ~00Z...SOUTHEASTWARD TO BOONE NC BY ~03Z...
SSE/SOUTHWARD TO MORGANTON BY ~06Z AND CHARLOTTE BY ~09Z. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST NC
AFTER 00Z...WITH PROPAGATION INTO THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
~03Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE 12Z CAMS SUPPORT SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND A
DRIER/LESS SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...ASSUMING NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE INTO THE TRIAD...DCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS
AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION
(AT BEST). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 325-326 DM OVER THE MID-
SOUTH ON TUE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AOA 1440 METERS OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES...LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...AT LEAST NOT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...
WHERE AOA 70 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON; AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE PRIMARY FRONT...LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED ONE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED...FORCING
AT THIS LATITUDE WILL NEED TO COME FROM OUTFLOW AND/OR AN MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...NEITHER OF WHICH CAN BE FORECAST WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. POP WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NE CANADA. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH... STALLING OUT AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER BY LATE WED
AFT/EVE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTH TO
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A LOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A
S/W OR TWO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK... PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE
IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID 90S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE INDICATION IN THE MODELS OF
A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... DECREASING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD: THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUB-
TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW (~20 PERCENT) UNTIL A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW-MODULATED
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO VA-NC ON WED AND SUPPORTS A BETTER CHANCE
(30-50 PERCENT) AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE FRONT BRIEFLY RETREATS NORTH
OF OUR AREA ON THU...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE WHEN THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER NC FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS EVEN OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
DAY MAX YR
RDU RECORDS
06/22 100 1981
06/23 100 1986
06/24 99 2010
GSO RECORDS
06/22 100 1914
06/23 102 1914
06/24 103 1914
FAY RECORDS
06/22 101 1990
06/23 102 1981
06/24 102 1914
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ027-028-042-
043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR UPDATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 19-20C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY...UPPER MID/UPPER 90S INLAND. HEAT
INDEX TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER BANKS...FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109 THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOW SEEMS TO BE MORE MARGINAL FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER SE VA...WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE TODAY. THAT AND THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND NSSL
WRF SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION SO ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL START THE WEEK BUT
BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST SW FLOW TO
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOWER 90S
COAST WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL TUESDAY...MAINLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER INLAND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. AS UPPER
HEIGHTS FALL AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT BY
EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 90S...BUT
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH AREAS OF RAIN-COOLED
AIR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF FALLING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST ANYTIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THANKFULLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SEABREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AIRMASS...WILL FOLLOW
PERSISTENCE AND INCLUDE MVFR FOG IN OAJ OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SW WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KT TUE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR. IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
RAINFALL...PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY
REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS TO IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS AS WEAK BOUNDARY OVER SE VA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD. N/NE WINDS 5-10KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN
WATERS...AND WSW/SW WINDS 5-15KT SOUTH...WITH SEAS 2-4FT. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRICKY TODAY AS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH...LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
RETURNING S/SW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2-4FT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WILL SEE SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT
WITH A S/SW WIND FLOW RESUMING BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT AGAIN INCREASES BEHIND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS VIRGINIA
AND HIGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH THE
LATEST WAVE MODELS SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET
BY FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY BY THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY: 6/22
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 97/1994 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 92/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 102/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 94/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1952 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 100/1981 (KNCA AWOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY: 6/23
LOCATION-----TEMP/YEAR--NOTES
NEW BERN 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 88/1996 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1933 (COOP - NOT KPGV ASOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 95/1988 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1911 (COOP - NOT KISO ASOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/2010 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1220 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO CREATE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES VALUES TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 104F
TO 109F DURING THOSE TIMES. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE BEACHES TO AROUND 100 WELL INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND
WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DESPITE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR SHOWS VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND THEREFORE ANY
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AND DIE FAIRLY RAPIDLY POSSIBLY PUTTING DOWN A
QUICK DOWNPOUR. OVERALL EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW/PATTERN WILL FEATURE A SUBTLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 593-594DM. THIS
WILL KEEP THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY BUT MORE
LIKELY THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO ECLIPSE TRIPLE DIGITS INLAND WITH UPPER 90S ALONG THE
COAST. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE BIG STORY REMAINS THE PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOME DEGREE. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGHEST
POPS CURRENTLY ARE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES. EITHER SIDE
OF THIS POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM SIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
THE ADDED CONVECTION AND LOWER HEIGHTS...READINGS SCALE BACK
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE VFR THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIGHT SW-W WINDS...EXCEPT
BECOMING S-SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. BEST TIME FRAME FOR VCTS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE 18-21Z OR UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVES FAR ENOUGH INLAND...AND INLAND TERMINALS 20-24Z. CONVECTION
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
23/18Z WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE DO NOT EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO MVFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE-SAT WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
BECOMING GUSTY AS THEY BACK SLIGHTLY IN A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
OFF SHORE. OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS UP AROUND 3
TO 4 FT IN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY PUSH YESTERDAY WILL SUBSIDE DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TONIGHT. EXPECT CHOPPIER SEAS IN SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
BACKING OF THE WIND DIRECTION ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS WELL. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FOR A
FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING VIA A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET. OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL COVER THE SEAS...2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME INCREASE TO WARRANT 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS VIA LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR/MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1224 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE PER TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS WILL
KEEP VERTICAL EXTENT/GROWTH OF THE CUMULUS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER REGIME. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DRY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR WHICH IS WAY OVERDONE WITH
PRECIPITATION AS OF 17Z. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SLIGHT CHC POPS
BACK TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO SHRINK POPS EAST CENTRAL/JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 18Z AS LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF SHOWERS. LATEST
SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 700MB-500MB TROUGH AXIS
EXITING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIMIT DEPTH OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL CAPE AND LIMITED CUMULUS
DEPTH/MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WEAK PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS. WILL
LOOK FURTHER INTO THE 12Z DATA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR A DRY/BREEZY DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR CLOUDINESS FROM
MINOT TO JAMESTOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER...AND REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. GENERALLY THESE STORMS ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BRIEF INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY SPREAD FROM NEAR BOWMAN UP THROUGH
BOTTINEAU...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THEREFORE...PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL FEEL COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
BRING IN COOL...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY DEPARTS AND RETURN FLOW
KICKS IN TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FAR WEST AND NORTH ON TUESDAY...BUT BY AND LARGE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THUS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS RANGING FROM 3500FT TO 5000FT WILL DISSIPATE
BY AROUND SUNSET...AS WILL THE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT.
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT AREAS TO
THE EAST. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS ACTIVITY CONTINUING BUT MOVING OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND DECREASING AFTER 0Z.
ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER FOR LATEST RADAR AND CAM TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES IN RAIN-AFFECTED
AREAS.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...EXPECT THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CVRG ACRS THE
MTNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE PIEDMONT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HTG THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE NOMINALLY LESS SUPPRESSIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER LLVL MOISTURE AND MEAN FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL PLAN
ON RAMPING UP TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MTN CVRG AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE...PEAKING NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN TOMORROW. SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX LOWER INTO/THRU THE
60S...KEEPING PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL BE LOSING STEAM AS IT GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN ALLOWING
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO DROP INTO THE LEE TROUGH EARLY WED
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE SC...SW INTO NE GA. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING NE AS A WARM FRONT ON THU AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO NOSE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU WHICH WILL KEEP THICKNESSES HIGH WHICH SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
THE HOT TEMPS.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS TUE
EVENING...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS IT TRIES TO TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS IN A
DIMINISHING CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
ON WED...MODEL RESPONSE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT IS RATHER MUTED
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS PROFILES EXHIBIT SOME DRYING AND QUITE A
BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST THERE.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH SBCAPES FORECAST TO EXCEED
2000J WITH LESS CIN TO OVERCOME. PLUS SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL HAVE SOLID SCT TYPE POPS
ALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY SLIP INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT WED EVENING...SO WILL HAVE
POPS INCREASING THERE WED EVENING. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT...SO WILL TREND
FORECAST TOWARD NAM/SREF WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY DRYER.
ON THU...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO WED EVEN WITH THE WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE CAPE...BUT PROFILES AGAIN SHOW ENOUGH CIN OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WILL AGAIN FEATURE SCT
TYPE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON IN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ENVIORNMENT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY BUT BELOW RECORD
LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE UPPER RIDGING STEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY SUNDAY...THE
UPPER PATTERN IS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND VERY STEEP RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
LOWS BEING GENERATED TO OUR WEST AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD. ON
FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE DAY/NIGHT AS A GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. ON SAT...ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO SPIN UP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FCST AREA OR JUST TO OUR NE AND THEN SLOWLY
PROPAGATE NE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A BROAD AREA OF DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE FCST AREA
BY EARLY SAT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA THRU ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF
SUN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWS WAKE FOR MONDAY. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS
ENDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGHER LVL BASED CU WILL BE SEEN UNTIL LOSS OF HTG THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOME THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS THE ONGOING RISK OF DIURNALLY FIRED SCATTERED
TSTMS ACRS THE NC MTNS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE FTHLS LATER TODAY BUT
CVRG IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENUF TO FORGO ANY MENTION IN THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS...TUESDAY MORNING MVFR FOG
POSSIBILITIES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NC MTN VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY
AWAY FROM THE KAVL TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WJM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JP/JPT
AVIATION...CSH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT
JOB WITH COMPLEX. TO THE WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS BUILDING. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 105 AT
JONESBORO AND WEST MEMPHIS.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WILL PUSH EAST
AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THEN START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID PERIOD. THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 90S WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS
DELTA INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
TEMPS MAY HIT THE UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S IN SOME PLACES SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THUS A VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH AROUND
00Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO BE LESS THAN 8
KTS OVERNIGHT.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SUNSHINE IS MORE PREVALENT TODAY AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
NORTH MS CONTINUE TO BREAK. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MS DELTA INCLUDING MEMPHIS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST HRRR/RAP DOES INITIATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH BY NOON TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY. 12Z PRECIP H20 AT KLZK HAS INCREASED FROM 1.37 INCHES
TO 1.81 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. KINDEX VALUES ARE GREATER
THAN 30 ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LARGE CAPE
VALUES THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
ALSO NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT CAP YET. STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND PERHAPS THIS
WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS LIKE THE 14Z HRRR INDICATES. FOR NOW WILL ADD A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND MENTION A STRONG STORM IN THE HWO.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CAUSING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S WITH A BAND OF MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AR ACROSS NORTH MS
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN
AND NORTHWEST MS. THIS INCLUDE THE CITIES OF JONESBORO AND
MEMPHIS. HEAT INDEX READING ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105
DEGREES IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
FEED HOTTER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD.
THERE IS A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
AND UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WEAKNESS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. INCLUDED
20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 40.
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 596 DM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LITTLE IF ANY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...AND INCLUDED JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR
NORTHEAST MS. CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE
SAME AS AREA AS TODAY...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE WITH THE REGION FIRMLY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ALONG THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED THESE THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THUS A VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH AROUND
00Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO BE LESS THAN 8
KTS OVERNIGHT.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
217 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THERE IS NOT MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE REST
OF THE CWA REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY MUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HRRR IS STILL FORECASTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE 30 POPS THIS EVENING
CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER LIFT IN THIS PART
OF THE CWA.
FOR TOMORROW...THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MIX OUT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY...BUT OUR
WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE A NON-PLAYER WEATHER WISE. THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REMAIN OPENED UP WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
SHIFTING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THERE WILL BE A
BOUNDARY PRESENT AND DECENT MOISTURE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS BECAUSE OF MANY UNKNOWNS ON THE MESOSCALE BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 90 73 90 74 / 10 20 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 89 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 88 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 73 89 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 89 74 / 10 20 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 90 74 89 75 / - 20 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 74 88 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 74 89 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
MIXTURE OF MVFR (KSAT/KSSF) AND VFR (KDRT/KAUS) CONDITIONS ONGOING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOWER STRATUS AND SHRA LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION. KSAT/KSSF SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID/LATE
AFTN HOURS OVERALL BUT PERIODIC SHOWER GENERATION SHOULD MOVE OVER
THOSE TERMINALS 20-00Z. THESE SHOWERS AND SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TSRA ACTIVITY COULD REDUCE OBS BACK TO MVFR FOR LOWER CIGS AND
REDUCED VIS. KAUS COULD ALSO RECEIVE SOME SHRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING AS WELL WITH VCSH PLACED IN TAF FOR NOW. KDRT WILL
ALSO HAVE SHRA AND SOME TSRA POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. ALL SITES WILL FALL TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR KSAT/KSSF WITH CIGS
LOWER THAN 500 FT 10-14Z. SOME DZ IS QUITE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
WELL GIVEN THE SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE. A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KT
OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER GUSTS COULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR ORGANIZED TSRA OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH ONE MODERATE NARROW BAND OF RAIN ACROSS MAVERICK AND
KINNEY COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS A 700 MB
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH HEATING AND MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...BUT RAIN RATES
SHOULD BE A BIT LESS AND PROBABLY NOT THE SAME AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN AN INCH BUT 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVIEST
STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
TSRA CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE MID MORNING
TIME FRAME AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO HONE IN ON A
PREVAILING LINE.
CIG AND VIS IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS PER
PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH A 4-5 KFT DECK IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA. THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE THAN MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...LOCATED SOUTH OF
EAGLE PASS AND NORTHWEST OF LAREDO. A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY OPENING AND MOVING
WEST TUESDAY. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE WEST...DRYING HAS BEEN DELAYED AND MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUES.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA MAY TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. THEN DE-STABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CWA SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR REPEAT TO CONVECTION
FROM YESTERDAY. HRRR AGAIN DEPICTS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH QPF THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF...WHILE GFS AND NAM12 ARE MORE
ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY REGION.
SCATTERED POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
AND WESTWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUICK...HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY
ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ASSUMING THE MID LEVEL LOW DOES MOVE WEST AND OPEN TUESDAY...THERE
SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE...EXPECT CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAK FORCING MAY CONTINUE HIGHER COVERAGE.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF I-35...AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO
PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...REACHING THE
NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY. EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH OR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION LIKE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WOULD ONLY FURTHER INCREASE POPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 90 73 90 74 / 10 20 - 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 - 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 89 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 72 88 73 / 10 10 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 89 74 89 75 / 40 40 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 73 89 74 / 10 10 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 88 74 / 30 20 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 89 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 90 74 89 75 / - 20 - 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 74 88 75 / 20 20 10 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 74 89 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1236 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MIDLEVEL CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT LOWER CU
FIELD FORMATION. THIS HAS PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE LIGHT RAIN FROM
THIS MORNING REMAINS TO THE NW OF KMFE...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AWAY FROM LOCAL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL HAVE
SOME VCTS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE LIKELY TOO LOW FOR PREDOMINANT RAIN IN TAFS. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LOWERING TO 5 TO
10KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR/OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD KEEPING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED TODAY IN ANY ONE TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED.
MVFR NOW WILL BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH 20 KNOTS GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH MVFR RETURNING BY
MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH
500MB INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWED 1.98 INCHES OF PWAT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP
THROUGH 500MB. EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWED SOUTHEASTERLY STREAMER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY
SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE RAISED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR WHATS FALLING
NOW AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS DID NOT REACH FULL
POTENTIAL TODAY AND WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH TROUGHING OUT WEST INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF.
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. PWATS DO NOT REALLY FALL OFF AND REMAIN IN THE 1.9-
2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH
SFC WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ESE. ALONG WITH A LITTLE SPEED
CONVERGENCE THINK THE SEABREEZE WILL GET GOING TUESDAY LATE MORNING
THEN PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND A
DEGREE WARMER ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND TO KEEP
HIGHS FROM REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...NAM AND GFS INDICATE
ANOTHER SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH OR A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST MOISTURE
CONTENT PWATS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES AND GOOD INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP.
LIFT WILL BE INITIATED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE AS
WINDS BACK ESE AND WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH AND WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL POP GUIDANCE ALSO ON THE BAND
WAGON WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
BROAD BRUSH OF LOW END CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ LOOK OK AT THIS
TIME WITH POSSIBLE LATER SHIFT BUMPING CHANCES UPWARD.
PRECIPIATION CHANCES FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY WITH
EVEN LOWER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT LOWERS
AND A WESTWARD BUILDING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO WARM THE MID LAYERS
DEVELOPING A WEAK CAP. CAN NOT RULE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG A SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS ONCE AGAIN
SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH GIVING RISE TO ANOTHER SHOT
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH ECMWF KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA MAINTAIN A
MORE DRIER SCENARIO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONAL WITH WARM MUGGY NIGHT
AND HOT HUMID DAYS. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS WITHIN
REASON WITH GUIDANCE ONLY SEPERATE BY A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WINDS WILL REAMIN
AROUND 12 TO 17 KNOTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAK LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND MODERATE TO SLIGHT SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
64/64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT THEN PICK BACK UP BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOWS A
596 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE
TO A QUICK MOVING MID-UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ACROSS
KANSAS. IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA A WIND SHIFT MAY
OCCUR BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE THE WARMEST SECTION OF THE AREA AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW AND MIXING BEING MOST
EFFECTIVE AT BRINGING DOWN DRY AIR. 100 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED AT OR NEAR BOISE CITY...GUYMON AND DALHART.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...THE POSITION OF UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. USED PREVIOUS DAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATION
GRID...NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD...AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED VALUES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES SPATIAL CHANGES SEEN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM NEAR THE RATON MESA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY. IMPACTS
TO THE FAR NORTHWEST INCLUDING CIMARRON COUNTY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
JUST CLOUD DEBRIS THIS EVENING.
THROUGH MID WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN. 500 MB
HEIGHTS PEAK EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE GRADUALLY. A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN OCCURS. WEAK DIFFICULT
TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. THESE MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ON SATURDAY PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD MEAN FLOW WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK OVERALL MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT
HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN BY
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MAXIMA IN COVERAGE TIED
TO DIURNAL HEATING. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL BUT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOW SEEM
POSSIBLE IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT (EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY). THIS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BECOMES NUMEROUS ENOUGH. OTHERWISE NO WEATHER
HAZARDOUS ARE FORESEEN.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE AMPLIFIED NON-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. WITH MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...COULD NOT JUSTIFY LOWER
THAN CLIMO PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE CONTINUED 15-20 POP IN THE WEST.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL TURN COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND BLENDED TOWARDS THE RNK WRFARW AND HRRR FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LATEST OBS AND CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND ALSO NORTH OF I-64. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE
PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DISSIPATED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT...THE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION OR
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 10PM-11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...CLOUDS WILL
TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY TROUGH ROUGHLY 2-3AM TUESDAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...SO A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA
IS POSSIBLE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE. READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON TUESDAY...THE FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST....OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFERS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...WITH THE
BEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS MAY
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 20 C IN THE WEST AND 24 C
IN THE EAST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICIES
WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 100 TO 102 RANGE ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A REIDSVILLE NC TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT REMAINS LINED UP FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION REMAIN CLOSE TO 590DM WITH A PIECE OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENT...SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EACH DAY AT THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NCEP FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
THURSDAY. SO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL BE
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY.
ENOUGH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WITHIN THE REGION OF THE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DISSIPATED
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
FEATURE ARE NOW OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
CORES THAT FORM. ALSO...WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA STILL HAVE
LCL VALUES IN THE HIGH END OF MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE POCKETS
OF STRATO-CU CEILINGS IN THIS AREA DUE SIMPLY TO DAYTIME HEATING.
AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM...LCL VALUES SHOULD BE LOW END VFR. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OR BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 02-03Z/10-11PM.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPOTS OF MVFR VSBYS IN THE PREFERRED RIVER AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES A NOTABLE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALSO...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTED A RESURGENCE OF MVFR LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A MVFR CIG
ALONG AND NEAR A KBLF-KLWB LINE.
ON TUESDAY...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
LATE MORNING. LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OF MOVE INTO THE KBLF-KLWB AREA OR PARTS WEST AROUND
18Z/2PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
THEN CROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER CORES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR REGION...AND BECOME STALLED. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT AN EVEN
DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. LOOK FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A GREATER RANGE OF REAL ESTATE THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...WILL BE PERIODICALLY OFF THE AIR THROUGH TONIGHT.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT IT
MAY NOT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SWLY WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30 MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
MIXING CEASES TOWARD EVENING. OTHERWISE CHANCES OF TSTORMS REMAIN
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CAPE BUILDS AND CIN
WEAKENS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN WI. OVERALL THOUGH BELIEVE
SOME CIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA AND LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
ONLY LOW CHANCES OF SVR TSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL ONLY
INDICATES MINOR DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI BUT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT
OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AM. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO WI LATE ON
TUE. A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXIT
REGION OF A ZONAL JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
INTO THE REGION...REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOME
SATURATED JUST THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS. MODEST INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR..WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS/GEM
COME IN WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LOW AND PRECIP BULLSEYE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MORE MEAGER LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESS PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA...SE WI WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW
ROUNDS OF VERY LIGHT QPF WHILE THE EURO REMAINS DRY. WILL BE
KEEPING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS QPF...BUT AT THIS
POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN
MODEST THE INSTABILITY IN BOTH MODELS...THERE IS A SHOT AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
GUSTY SWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. ALSO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FROM 1.5-3.0
KFT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATOCUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO SE WI AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
BREEZY SWLY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.
&&
.BEACHES...
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
BEACHES OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WAS OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS CROSSING NORTHERN MN WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE THAT FORMED FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WAS OVER LOWER
MI. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HAS HELPED
TO PREVENT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FROM FIRING. RAP DEPICTING
ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 200 J/KG OF MLCIN. THIS WAS DESPITE A
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENT TROUGH. THAT FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA. MUCH DRIER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2 INCH RANGE OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL MN.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL...ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE COLD
FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER MN WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUE. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGHS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 00Z...TAKING ANY
CONVECTION CHANCES WITH IT...WHICH ARE MINIMAL DUE TO ALL OF THE
MLCIN...LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEING IN THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A 100KT JET CORE TRACKING INTO NORTHERN WI. MAY STILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS...BUT THAT TOO
SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN. ALL OF
TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME MID CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN OUR TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AS A RESULT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING THERE AND RECENT RAIN...BUT
ENOUGH WIND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PREVENT FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S PER GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. 925MB TEMPS OF
16-18C ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW
80S POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH BECOMES EVEN MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANAMOULSY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS...A COUPLE OF TIME PERIODS OF
CONCERN...
1. WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
LOOKS TO TRACK INTO ILLINOIS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PULL THE
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH STALLS NEAR I-70 ON TUESDAY...BACK
NORTHWARD. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST
SOUTH...HOLDING IT OVER NORTHERN MO...WHILE THE GFS...NAM AND
CANADIAN PULL IT AT LEAST TO I-80. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ISENTROPICALLY AND FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE...MAY
TRY TO MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS FROM THE PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WHICH ISNT
GOOD FOR LIFTING IT NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHEAST
IOWA CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
2. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ARE PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THEY PRODUCE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THAT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ON WEDNESDAY. LIKE THE MODEL SPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE NAM
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH. THE LATTER 3
MODELS PRODUCE MUCH MORE CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION FOR US WHILE
THE ECMWF IS NEARLY DRY WITH ITS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN BIAS OVERALL THIS YEAR TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HOLDING UP THE FRONT...FEEL A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE MOST PART ARE IN THE 20-50 RANGE. HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT
ANY SEVERE CHANCES GIVEN THIS SPREAD IN CONVECTION LOCATION AS
WELL.
3. BEYOND THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DRIVING
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PROBLEM IS THE
MOISTURE AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER THE SHORTWAVES PASS ON
THURSDAY GETS SHUNTED DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. NEW 22.12Z ECMWF
REALLY HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AND DEPICTS MONDAY AS THE
ONLY TIME PERIOD OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN BOTH WANT TO KEEP THE AREA GETTING HIT BY
SPORADIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SHORTWAVES. IT APPEARS THESE MODELS
MAY BE PRODUCING TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO BOOST UP BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO GIVE SOME DRY PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX QUICKLY MOVED INTO EASTERN WI LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE CLEARING OUT MUCH OF
THE LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE RAINS
THIS MORNING AND SOME DIURNAL WARMING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
SCT...MAINLY VFR CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KT
G25KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH SKC EXPECTED...THEN A FEW DIURNAL 4K-5K FT CUMULUS TUE
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE STORMS FROM THIS MORNING HIT MUCH OF THE UPPER IOWA RIVER
BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CEDAR RIVER BASIN PRETTY HARD.
COMBINATION OF RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TURKEY AND SOUTHERN END OF THE
KICKAPOO ALSO GOT HIT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. AS A
RESULT...THESE RIVERS ARE RISING WITH SOME FLOOD WARNINGS OUT.
SINCE THEY ARE QUICK RESPONDING...MOST SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...AJ